Pinpointing and preventing imminent extinctions

Cross-boundary human impacts compromise the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem

Protected areas provide major benefits for humans in the form of ecosystem services, but landscape degradation by human activity at their edges may compromise their ecological functioning. Using multiple lines of evidence from 40 years of research in the Serengeti-Mara ecosystem, we find that such edge degradation has effectively “squeezed” wildlife into the core protected area and has altered the ecosystem’s dynamics even within this 40,000-square-kilometer ecosystem. This spatial cascade reduced resilience in the core and was mediated by the movement of grazers, which reduced grass fuel and fires, weakened the capacity of soils to sequester nutrients and carbon, and decreased the responsiveness of primary production to rainfall. Similar effects in other protected ecosystems worldwide may require rethinking of natural resource management outside protected areas.

The endemic plants of Mozambique: diversity and conservation status

An annotated checklist of the 271 strict-endemic taxa (235 species) and 387 near-endemic taxa (337 species) of vascular plants in Mozambique is provided. Together, these taxa constitute c. 9.3% of the total currently known flora of Mozambique and include five strict-endemic genera (Baptorhachis, Emicocarpus, Gyrodoma, Icuria and Micklethwaitia) and two near-endemic genera (Triceratella and Oligophyton). The mean year of first publication of these taxa is 1959, with a marked increase in description noted following the onset of the two major regional floristic programmes, the "Flora of Tropical East Africa" and "Flora Zambesiaca", and an associated increase in botanical collecting effort. New taxa from Mozambique continue to be described at a significant rate, with 20 novelties described in 2018. Important plant families for endemic and near-endemic taxa include Fabaceae, Rubiaceae and Euphorbiaceae s.s. There is a high congruence between species-rich plant families and endemism with the notable exceptions of the Poaceae, which is the second-most species rich plant family, but outside of the top ten families in terms of endemism, and the Euphorbiaceae, which is the seventh-most species rich plant family, but third in terms of endemism. A wide range of life-forms are represented in the endemic and near-endemic flora, with 49% being herbaceous or having herbaceous forms and 55% being woody or having woody forms. Manica Province is by far the richest locality for near-endemic taxa, highlighting the importance of the cross-border Chimanimani-Nyanga (Manica) Highlands shared with Zimbabwe. A total of 69% of taxa can be assigned to one of four cross-border Centres of Endemism: the Rovuma Centre, the Maputaland Centre sensu lato, and the two mountain blocks, Chimanimani-Nyanga and Mulanje-Namuli-Ribaue. Approximately 50% of taxa have been assessed for their extinction risk and, of these, just over half are globally threatened (57% for strict-endemics), with a further 10% (17% for strict-endemics) currently considered to be Data Deficient, highlighting the urgent need for targeted conservation of Mozambique's unique flora. This dataset will be a key resource for ongoing efforts to identify "Important Plant Areas - IPAs" in Mozambique, and to promote the conservation and sustainable management of these critical sites and species, thus enabling Mozambique to meet its commitments under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).

Global projections of future cropland expansion to 2050 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage

Cropland expansion threatens biodiversity by driving habitat loss and impacts carbon storage through loss of biomass and soil carbon (C). There is a growing concern land-use change (LUC) to cropland will result in a loss of ecosystem function and various ecosystem services essential for human health and well-being. This paper examines projections of future cropland expansion from an integrated assessment model IMAGE 3.0 under a "business as usual" scenario and the direct impact on both biodiversity and C storage. By focusing on biodiversity hotspots and Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) sites, loss of habitat as well as potential impacts on endangered and critically endangered species are explored. With regards to C storage, the impact on both soil and vegetation standing C stocks are examined. We show that if projected trends are realized, there are likely to be severe consequences for these resources. Substantial loss of habitat in biodiversity hotspots such as Indo-Burma, and the Philippians is expected as well as 50% of species in AZE sites losing part of their last remaining habitat. An estimated 13.7% of vegetation standing C stocks and 4.6% of soil C stocks are also projected to be lost in areas affected with Brazil and Mexico being identified as priorities in terms of both biodiversity and C losses from cropland expansion. Changes in policy to regulate projected cropland expansion, and increased measures to protect natural resources, are highly likely to be required to prevent these biodiversity and C losses in the future.

The use and misuse of herbarium specimens in evaluating plant extinction risks

Herbarium specimens provide verifiable and citable evidence of the occurrence of particular plants at particular points in space and time, and are vital resources for assessing extinction risk in the tropics, where plant diversity and threats to plants are greatest. We reviewed approaches to assessing extinction risk in response to the Convention on Biological Diversity's Global Strategy for Plant Conservation Target 2: an assessment of the conservation status of all known plant species by 2020. We tested five alternative approaches, using herbarium-derived data for trees, shrubs and herbs in five different plant groups from temperate and tropical regions. All species were previously fully assessed for the IUCN Red List. We found significant variation in the accuracy with which different approaches classified species as threatened or not threatened. Accuracy was highest for the machine learning model (90%) but the least data-intensive approach also performed well (82%). Despite concerns about spatial, temporal and taxonomic biases and uncertainties in herbarium data, when specimens represent the best available evidence for particular species, their use as a basis for extinction risk assessment is appropriate, necessary and urgent. Resourcing herbaria to maintain, increase and disseminate their specimen data is essential to guide and focus conservation action.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

Co-occurrence dynamics of endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbits and free-ranging domestic cats: Prey responses to an exotic predator removal program

The Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) is one of many endangered endemic species of the Florida Keys. The main threats are habitat loss and fragmentation from sea-level rise, development, and habitat succession. Exotic predators such as free-ranging domestic cats (Felis catus) pose an additional threat to these endangered small mammals. Management strategies have focused on habitat restoration and exotic predator control. However, the effectiveness of predator removal and the effects of anthropogenic habitat modifications and restoration have not been evaluated. Between 2013 and 2015, we used camera traps to survey marsh rabbits and free-ranging cats at 84 sites in the National Key Deer Refuge, Big Pine Key, Florida, USA. We used dynamic occupancy models to determine factors associated with marsh rabbit occurrence, colonization, extinction, and the co-occurrence of marsh rabbits and cats during a period of predator removal. Rabbit occurrence was positively related to freshwater habitat and patch size, but was negatively related to the number of individual cats detected at each site. Furthermore, marsh rabbit colonization was negatively associated with relative increases in the number of individual cats at each site between survey years. Cat occurrence was negatively associated with increasing distance from human developments. The probability of cat site extinction was positively related to a 2-year trapping effort, indicating that predator removal reduced the cat population. Dynamic co-occurrence models suggested that cats and marsh rabbits co-occur less frequently than expected under random conditions, whereas co-detections were site and survey-specific. Rabbit site extinction and colonization were not strongly conditional on cat presence, but corresponded with a negative association. Our results suggest that while rabbits can colonize and persist at sites where cats occur, it is the number of individual cats at a site that more strongly influences rabbit occupancy and colonization. These findings indicate that continued predator management would likely benefit endangered small mammals as they recolonize restored habitats.

A comparative analysis of terrestrial arthropod assemblages from a relict forest unveils historical extinctions and colonization differences between two oceanic islands

During the last few centuries oceanic island biodiversity has been drastically modified by human-mediated activities. These changes have led to the increased homogenization of island biota and to a high number of extinctions lending support to the recognition of oceanic islands as major threatspots worldwide. Here, we investigate the impact of habitat changes on the spider and ground beetle assemblages of the native forests of Madeira (Madeira archipelago) and Terceira (Azores archipelago) and evaluate its effects on the relative contribution of rare endemics and introduced species to island biodiversity patterns. We found that the native laurel forest of Madeira supported higher species richness of spiders and ground beetles compared with Terceira, including a much larger proportion of indigenous species, particularly endemics. In Terceira, introduced species are well-represented in both terrestrial arthropod taxa and seem to thrive in native forests as shown by the analysis of species abundance distributions (SAD) and occupancy frequency distributions (OFD). Low abundance range-restricted species in Terceira are mostly introduced species dispersing from neighbouring man-made habitats while in Madeira a large number of true rare endemic species can still be found in the native laurel forest. Further, our comparative analysis shows striking differences in species richness and composition that are due to the geographical and geological particularities of the two islands, but also seem to reflect the differences in the severity of human-mediated impacts between them. The high proportion of introduced species, the virtual absence of rare native species and the finding that the SADs and OFDs of introduced species match the pattern of native species in Terceira suggest the role of man as an important driver of species diversity in oceanic islands and add evidence for an extensive and severe human-induced species loss in the native forests of Terceira.

A Global Mitigation Hierarchy for Nature Conservation

Efforts to conserve biodiversity comprise a patchwork of international goals, national-level plans, and local interventions that, overall, are failing. We discuss the potential utility of applying the mitigation hierarchy, widely used during economic development activities, to all negative human impacts on biodiversity. Evaluating all biodiversity losses and gains through the mitigation hierarchy could help prioritize consideration of conservation goals and drive the empirical evaluation of conservation investments through the explicit consideration of counterfactual trends and ecosystem dynamics across scales. We explore the challenges in using this framework to achieve global conservation goals, including operationalization and monitoring and compliance, and we discuss solutions and research priorities. The mitigation hierarchy's conceptual power and ability to clarify thinking could provide the step change needed to integrate the multiple elements of conservation goals and interventions in order to achieve successful biodiversity outcomes.

Structural connectivity at a national scale: Wildlife corridors in Tanzania

Wildlife corridors can help maintain landscape connectivity but novel methods must be developed to assess regional structural connectivity quickly and cheaply so as to determine where expensive and time-consuming surveys of functional connectivity should occur. We use least-cost methods, the most accurate and up-to-date land conversion dataset for East Africa, and interview data on wildlife corridors, to develop a single, consistent methodology to systematically assess wildlife corridors at a national scale using Tanzania as a case study. Our research aimed to answer the following questions; (i) which corridors may still remain open (i.e. structurally connected) at a national scale, (ii) which have been potentially severed by anthropogenic land conversion (e.g., agriculture and settlements), (iii) where are other remaining potential wildlife corridors located, and (iv) which protected areas with lower forms of protection (e.g., Forest Reserves and Wildlife Management Areas) may act as stepping-stones linking more than one National Park and/or Game Reserve. We identify a total of 52 structural connections between protected areas that are potentially open to wildlife movement, and in so doing add 23 to those initially identified by other methods in Tanzanian Government reports. We find that the vast majority of corridors noted in earlier reports as “likely to be severed” have actually not been cut structurally (21 of 24). Nonetheless, nearly a sixth of all the wildlife corridors identified in Tanzania in 2009 have potentially been separated by land conversion, and a third now pass across lands likely to be converted to human use in the near future. Our study uncovers two reserves with lower forms of protection (Uvinza Forest Reserve in the west and Wami-Mbiki Wildlife Management Area in the east) that act as apparently crucial stepping-stones between National Parks and/or Game Reserves and therefore require far more serious conservation support. Methods used in this study are readily applicable to other nations lacking detailed data on wildlife movements and plagued by inaccurate land cover datasets. Our results are the first step in identifying wildlife corridors at a regional scale and provide a springboard for ground-based follow-up conservation.

Globally threatened vertebrates on islands with invasive species

Global biodiversity loss is disproportionately rapid on islands, where invasive species are a major driver of extinctions. To inform conservation planning aimed at preventing extinctions, we identify the distribution and biogeographic patterns of highly threatened terrestrial vertebrates (classified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature) and invasive vertebrates on ~465,000 islands worldwide by conducting a comprehensive literature review and interviews with more than 500 experts. We found that 1189 highly threatened vertebrate species (319 amphibians, 282 reptiles, 296 birds, and 292 mammals) breed on 1288 islands. These taxa represent only 5% of Earth's terrestrial vertebrates and 41% of all highly threatened terrestrial vertebrates, which occur in <1% of islands worldwide. Information about invasive vertebrates was available for 1030 islands (80% of islands with highly threatened vertebrates). Invasive vertebrates were absent from 24% of these islands, where biosecurity to prevent invasions is a critical management tool. On the 76% of islands where invasive vertebrates were present, management could benefit 39% of Earth's highly threatened vertebrates. Invasive mammals occurred in 97% of these islands, with Rattus sp. as the most common invasive vertebrate (78%; 609 islands). Our results provide an important baseline for identifying islands for invasive species eradication and other island conservation actions that reduce biodiversity loss.

Future threats to biodiversity and pathways to their prevention

Tens of thousands of species are threatened with extinction as a result of human activities. Here we explore how the extinction risks of terrestrial mammals and birds might change in the next 50 years. Future population growth and economic development are forecasted to impose unprecedented levels of extinction risk on many more species worldwide, especially the large mammals of tropical Africa, Asia and South America. Yet these threats are not inevitable. Proactive international efforts to increase crop yields, minimize land clearing and habitat fragmentation, and protect natural lands could increase food security in developing nations and preserve much of Earth's remaining biodiversity.

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.

Optimal allocation of Red List assessments to guide conservation of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world

The IUCN Red List is the most extensive source of conservation status assessments for species worldwide, but important gaps in coverage remain. Here, we demonstrate the use of a spatial prioritization approach to efficiently prioritize species assessments to achieve increased and up-to-date coverage efficiently. We focus on freshwater fishes, which constitute a significant portion of vertebrate diversity, although comprehensive assessments are available for only 46% of species. We used marxan to identify ecoregions for future assessments that maximize the coverage of species while accounting for anthropogenic stress. We identified a set of priority regions that would help assess one-third (ca 4000 species) of all freshwater fishes in need of assessment by 2020. Such assessments could be achieved without increasing current investment levels. Our approach is suitable for any taxon and can help ensure that species threat assessments are sufficiently complete to guide global conservation efforts in a rapidly changing world.

Meeting the Aichi targets: Pushing for zero extinction conservation

Effective protection of the ~19 000 IUCN-listed threatened species has never been more pressing. Ensuring the survival of the most vulnerable and irreplaceable taxa and places, such as those identified by the Alliance for Zero Extinction (AZE) species and their associated sites (AZEs&s), is an excellent opportunity to achieve the Aichi 2020 Targets T11 (protected areas) and T12 (preventing species extinctions). AZE taxa have small, single-site populations that are especially vulnerable to human-induced extinctions, particularly for the many amphibians. We show that AZEs&s can be protected feasibly and cost-effectively, but action is urgent. We argue that the Alliance, whose initial main aim was to identify AZEs&s, must be followed up by a second-generation initiative that directs and co-ordinates AZE conservation activities on the ground. The prominent role of zoos, conservation NGOs, and governmental institutions provides a combination of all-encompassing knowhow that can, if properly steered, maximize the long-term survival of AZEs&s.

Using modeling tools for implementing feasible land use and nature conservation governance systems in small islands - The Pico Island (Azores) case-study

The present study deals with the development of systematic conservation planning as management instrument in small oceanic islands, ensuring open systems of governance, and able to integrate an informed and involved participation of the stakeholders. Marxan software was used to define management areas according a set of alternative land use scenarios considering different conservation and management paradigms. Modeled conservation zones were interpreted and compared with the existing protected areas allowing more fused information for future trade-outs and stakeholder's involvement. The results, allowing the identification of Target Management Units (TMU) based on the consideration of different development scenarios proved to be consistent with a feasible development of evaluation approaches able to support sound governance systems. Moreover, the detailed geographic identification of TMU seems to be able to support participated policies towards a more sustainable management of the entire island.

Assessing the land resource-food price nexus of the Sustainable Development Goals

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for a comprehensive new approach to development rooted in planetary boundaries, equity, and inclusivity. The wide scope of the SDGs will necessitate unprecedented integration of siloed policy portfolios to work at international, regional, and national levels toward multiple goals and mitigate the conflicts that arise from competing resource demands. In this analysis, we adopt a comprehensive modeling approach to understand how coherent policy combinations can manage trade-offs among environmental conservation initiatives and food prices. Our scenario results indicate that SDG strategies constructed around Sustainable Consumption and Production policies can minimize problem-shifting, which has long placed global development and conservation agendas at odds. We conclude that Sustainable Consumption and Production policies (goal 12) are most effective at minimizing trade-offs and argue for their centrality to the formulation of coherent SDG strategies. We also find that alternative socioeconomic futures-mainly, population and economic growth pathways-generate smaller impacts on the eventual achievement of land resource-related SDGs than do resource-use and management policies. We expect that this and future systems analyses will allow policy-makers to negotiate trade-offs and exploit synergies as they assemble sustainable development strategies equal in scope to the ambition of the SDGs.

Assessing the Cost of Global Biodiversity and Conservation Knowledge

Knowledge products comprise assessments of authoritative information supported by standards, governance, quality control, data, tools, and capacity building mechanisms. Considerable resources are dedicated to developing and maintaining knowledge products for biodiversity conservation, and they are widely used to inform policy and advise decision makers and practitioners. However, the financial cost of delivering this information is largely undocumented. We evaluated the costs and funding sources for developing and maintaining four global biodiversity and conservation knowledge products: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems, Protected Planet, and the World Database of Key Biodiversity Areas. These are secondary data sets, built on primary data collected by extensive networks of expert contributors worldwide. We estimate that US$160 million (range: US$116–204 million), plus 293 person-years of volunteer time (range: 278–308 person-years) valued at US$ 14 million (range US$12–16 million), were invested in these four knowledge products between 1979 and 2013. More than half of this financing was provided through philanthropy, and nearly three-quarters was spent on personnel costs. The estimated annual cost of maintaining data and platforms for three of these knowledge products (excluding the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems for which annual costs were not possible to estimate for 2013) is US$6.5 million in total (range: US$6.2–6.7 million). We estimated that an additional US$114 million will be needed to reach pre-defined baselines of data coverage for all the four knowledge products, and that once achieved, annual maintenance costs will be approximately US$12 million. These costs are much lower than those to maintain many other, similarly important, global knowledge products. Ensuring that biodiversity and conservation knowledge products are sufficiently up to date, comprehensive and accurate is fundamental to inform decision-making for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Thus, the development and implementation of plans for sustainable long-term financing for them is critical.

Modelling harvest of Asian elephants Elephas maximus on the basis of faulty assumptions promotes inappropriate management solutions

A ratio-based logistic model developed to assess elephant harvest rates, based on a study at Nagarhole Tiger Reserve in India, was recommended as a management tool to control human–elephant conflict through culling. Considering this reserve among others violates an assumption of the logistic model: isolation. Nevertheless, assuming this violation was irrelevant, we re-evaluated the model, with minor modifications, for the neighbouring Mudumalai Tiger Reserve, where we used data from 13 elephant Elephas maximus population surveys to derive bootstrapped sets of population ratios, and mortality records. We generated arrays of harvest regimes and examined which ratio outputs were closest to the bootstrapped ratios. Our results indicated that (1) model outputs corresponded best with the Mudumalai population structure when harvest regimes were extreme and unlikely, (2) there were significant differences in population structure and harvest regimes between Nagarhole and Mudumalai, and (3) only 49% of adult male deaths predicted by model outputs were recorded in official governmental records. The model provides significantly different results among reserves, which invalidates it as a tool to predict change across the entire elephant population. Variability in survey data and inaccuracies in transition probabilities are sufficiently large to warrant caution when using them as a basis for deterministic modelling. Official mortality databases provide a weak means of validation because poaching incidents are poorly recorded. We conclude that the model should be based on validated transition probabilities and encompass the entire regional population.

Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas

World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold- and complementarity-based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. We brought together these approaches by performing a complementarity-based analysis of irreplaceability in important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs), which are sites identified using a threshold-based approach. We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focused on 3 regions with comprehensive IBA inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, southern Africa, and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with the presence and number of restricted-range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified (trigger species). In addition, IBAs were characterized by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, which indicates a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of key biodiversity areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches such as IBAs. Our results informed this consultation, and in particular a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold- and complementarity-based approaches.

Bolder science needed now for protected areas

Recognizing that protected areas (PAs) are essential for effective biodiversity conservation action, the Convention on Biological Diversity established ambitious PA targets as part of the 2020 Strategic Plan for Biodiversity. Under the strategic goal to "improve the status of biodiversity by safeguarding ecosystems, species, and genetic diversity," Target 11 aims to put 17% of terrestrial and 10% of marine regions under PA status by 2020. Additionally and crucially, these areas are required to be of particular importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, effectively and equitably managed, ecologically representative, and well-connected and to include "other effective area-based conservation measures" (OECMs). Whereas the area-based targets are explicit and measurable, the lack of guidance for what constitutes important and representative; effective; and OECMs is affecting how nations are implementing the target. There is a real risk that Target 11 may be achieved in terms of area while failing the overall strategic goal for which it is established because the areas are poorly located, inadequately managed, or based on unjustifiable inclusion of OECMs. We argue that the conservation science community can help establish ecologically sensible PA targets to help prioritize important biodiversity areas and achieve ecological representation; identify clear, comparable performance metrics of ecological effectiveness so progress toward these targets can be assessed; and identify metrics and report on the contribution OECMs make toward the target. By providing ecologically sensible targets and new performance metrics for measuring the effectiveness of both PAs and OECMs, the science community can actively ensure that the achievement of the required area in Target 11 is not simply an end in itself but generates genuine benefits for biodiversity.

Analysing biodiversity and conservation knowledge products to support regional environmental assessments

Two processes for regional environmental assessment are currently underway: the Global Environment Outlook (GEO) and Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Both face constraints of data, time, capacity, and resources. To support these assessments, we disaggregate three global knowledge products according to their regions and subregions. These products are: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, Key Biodiversity Areas (specifically Important Bird & Biodiversity Areas [IBAs], and Alliance for Zero Extinction [AZE] sites), and Protected Planet. We present fourteen Data citations: numbers of species occurring and percentages threatened; numbers of endemics and percentages threatened; downscaled Red List Indices for mammals, birds, and amphibians; numbers, mean sizes, and percentage coverages of IBAs and AZE sites; percentage coverage of land and sea by protected areas; and trends in percentages of IBAs and AZE sites wholly covered by protected areas. These data will inform the regional/subregional assessment chapters on the status of biodiversity, drivers of its decline, and institutional responses, and greatly facilitate comparability and consistency between the different regional/subregional assessments.

Last of the green: identifying priority sites to prevent plant extinctions in Brazil

The identification and protection of Alliance for Zero Extinction sites at the national level is of great importance to safeguard biodiversity and achieve the targets of the Convention on Biological Diversity for 2020. Here we identify priority species and sites for the Brazilian flora. We evaluated the protection status of each site, taking into account whether or not it was located within a protected area, and the anthropogenic pressure on the site, using human density and gross domestic product as surrogates. We identified a total of 234 trigger species at 140 sites. Most of the sites are located in the Atlantic Forest and the Cerrado; only 21 are within protected areas. There was no relationship of human density and annual gross domestic product per capita with the level of site protection. The low proportion of Alliance for Zero Extinction sites protected shows that Brazil is lagging behind in global conservation efforts to protect such sites.

Why and how might genetic and phylogenetic diversity be reflected in the identification of key biodiversity areas?

‘Key biodiversity areas' are defined as sites contributing significantly to the global persistence of biodiversity. The identification of these sites builds from existing approaches based on measures of species and ecosystem diversity and process. Here, we therefore build from the work of Sgró et al. (2011 Evol. Appl.4, 326–337. (doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2010.00157.x)) to extend a framework for how components of genetic diversity might be considered in the identification of key biodiversity areas. We make three recommendations to inform the ongoing process of consolidating a key biodiversity areas standard: (i) thresholds for the threatened species criterion currently consider a site's share of a threatened species' population; expand these to include the proportion of the species' genetic diversity unique to a site; (ii) expand criterion for ‘threatened species' to consider ‘threatened taxa’ and (iii) expand the centre of endemism criterion to identify as key biodiversity areas those sites holding a threshold proportion of the compositional or phylogenetic diversity of species (within a taxonomic group) whose restricted ranges collectively define a centre of endemism. We also recommend consideration of occurrence of EDGE species (i.e. threatened phylogenetic diversity) in key biodiversity areas to prioritize species-specific conservation actions among sites.

Human-Induced Long-Term Shifts in Gull Diet from Marine to Terrestrial Sources in North America's Coastal Pacific: More Evidence from More Isotopes (δ2H, δ34S)

Measurements of naturally occurring stable isotopes in tissues of seabirds and their prey are a powerful tool for investigating long-term changes in marine foodwebs. Recent isotopic (δ(15)N, δ(13)C) evidence from feathers of Glaucous-winged Gulls (Larus glaucescens) has shown that over the last 150 years, this species shifted from a midtrophic marine diet to one including lower trophic marine prey and/or more terrestrial or freshwater foods. However, long-term isotopic patterns of δ(15)N and δ(13)C cannot distinguish between the relative importance of lower trophic-level marine foods and terrestrial sources. We examined 48 feather stable-hydrogen (δ(2)H) and -sulfur (δ(34)S) isotope values from this same 150-year feather set and found additional isotopic evidence supporting the hypothesis that gulls shifted to terrestrial and/or freshwater prey. Mean feather δ(2)H and δ(34)S values (± SD) declined from the earliest period (1860-1915; n = 12) from -2.5 ± 21.4 ‰ and 18.9 ± 2.7 ‰, respectively, to -35.5 ± 15.5 ‰ and 14.8 ± 2.4 ‰, respectively, for the period 1980-2009 (n = 12). We estimated a shift of ∼ 30% increase in dependence on terrestrial/freshwater sources. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that gulls increased terrestrial food inputs in response to declining forage fish availability.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18–20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

Amphibian diversity and threatened species in a severely transformed neotropical region in Mexico

Many regions around the world concentrate a large number of highly endangered species that have very restricted distributions. The mountainous region of central Veracruz, Mexico, is considered a priority area for amphibian conservation because of its high level of endemism and the number of threatened species. The original tropical montane cloud forest in the region has been dramatically reduced and fragmented and is now mainly confined to ravines and hillsides. We evaluated the current situation of amphibian diversity in the cloud forest fragments of this region by analyzing species richness and abundance, comparing assemblage structure and species composition, examining the distribution and abundance of threatened species, and identifying the local and landscape variables associated with the observed amphibian diversity. From June to October 2012 we sampled ten forest fragments, investing 944 person-hours of sampling effort. A total of 895 amphibians belonging to 16 species were recorded. Notable differences in species richness, abundance, and assemblage structure between forest fragments were observed. Species composition between pairs of fragments differed by an average of 53%, with the majority (58%) resulting from species replacement and the rest (42%) explained by differences in species richness. Half of the species detected are under threat of extinction according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, and although their distribution and abundance varied markedly, there were also ubiquitous and abundant species, along with rare species of restricted distribution. The evident heterogeneity of the ten study sites indicates that to conserve amphibians in a mountainous region such as this one it is necessary to protect groups of fragments which represent the variability of the system. Both individually and together cloud forest fragments are very important to conservation because each remnant is inhabited by several threatened species, some of them at imminent risk of extinction.

Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change

Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.