Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors

Improving Accuracy for Diabetes Mellitus Prediction by Using Deepnet

Diabetes is a salient issue and a significant health care concern for many nations. The forecast for the prevalence of diabetes is on the rise. Hence, building a prediction machine learning model to assist in the identification of diabetic patients is of great interest. This study aims to create a machine learning model that is capable of predicting diabetes with high performance. The following study used the BigML platform to train four machine learning algorithms, namely, Deepnet, Models (decision tree), Ensemble and Logistic Regression, on data sets collected from the Ministry of National Guard Hospital Affairs (MNGHA) in Saudi Arabia between the years of 2013 and 2015. The comparative evaluation criteria for the four algorithms examined included; Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F-measure and PhiCoefficient. Results show that the Deepnet algorithm achieved higher performance compared to other machine learning algorithms based on various evaluation matrices.

Finding undiagnosed patients with hepatitis C infection: an application of artificial intelligence to patient claims data

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains a significant public health challenge with approximately half of the infected population untreated and undiagnosed. In this retrospective study, predictive models were developed to identify undiagnosed HCV patients using longitudinal medical claims linked to prescription data from approximately ten million patients in the United States (US) between 2010 and 2016. Features capturing information on demographics, risk factors, symptoms, treatments and procedures relevant to HCV were extracted from patients' medical history. Predictive algorithms were developed based on logistic regression, random forests, gradient boosted trees and a stacked ensemble. Descriptive analysis indicated that patients exhibited known symptoms of HCV on average 2-3 years prior to their diagnosis. The precision was at least 95% for all algorithms at low levels of recall (10%). For recall levels >50%, the stacked ensemble performed best with a precision of 97% compared with 87% for the gradient boosted trees and just 31% for the logistic regression. For context, the Center for Disease Control recommends screening in an at-risk sub-population with an estimated HCV prevalence of 2.23%. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm presented here has a precision which is substantially higher than the screening rates associated with recommended clinical guidelines, suggesting that AI algorithms have the potential to provide a step change in the effectiveness of HCV screening.

Artificial Intelligence and Big Data in Diabetes Care: A Position Statement of the Italian Association of Medical Diabetologists

Since the last decade, most of our daily activities have become digital. Digital health takes into account the ever-increasing synergy between advanced medical technologies, innovation, and digital communication. Thanks to machine learning, we are not limited anymore to a descriptive analysis of the data, as we can obtain greater value by identifying and predicting patterns resulting from inductive reasoning. Machine learning software programs that disclose the reasoning behind a prediction allow for “what-if” models by which it is possible to understand if and how, by changing certain factors, one may improve the outcomes, thereby identifying the optimal behavior. Currently, diabetes care is facing several challenges: the decreasing number of diabetologists, the increasing number of patients, the reduced time allowed for medical visits, the growing complexity of the disease both from the standpoints of clinical and patient care, the difficulty of achieving the relevant clinical targets, the growing burden of disease management for both the health care professional and the patient, and the health care accessibility and sustainability. In this context, new digital technologies and the use of artificial intelligence are certainly a great opportunity. Herein, we report the results of a careful analysis of the current literature and represent the vision of the Italian Association of Medical Diabetologists (AMD) on this controversial topic that, if well used, may be the key for a great scientific innovation. AMD believes that the use of artificial intelligence will enable the conversion of data (descriptive) into knowledge of the factors that “affect” the behavior and correlations (predictive), thereby identifying the key aspects that may establish an improvement of the expected results (prescriptive). Artificial intelligence can therefore become a tool of great technical support to help diabetologists become fully responsible of the individual patient, thereby assuring customized and precise medicine. This, in turn, will allow for comprehensive therapies to be built in accordance with the evidence criteria that should always be the ground for any therapeutic choice.

Assistant diagnosis with Chinese electronic medical records based on CNN and BiLSTM with phrase-level and word-level attentions

Background

Inferring diseases related to the patient’s electronic medical records (EMRs) is of great significance for assisting doctor diagnosis. Several recent prediction methods have shown that deep learning-based methods can learn the deep and complex information contained in EMRs. However, they do not consider the discriminative contributions of different phrases and words. Moreover, local information and context information of EMRs should be deeply integrated.

Results

A new method based on the fusion of a convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) with attention mechanisms is proposed for predicting a disease related to a given EMR, and it is referred to as FCNBLA. FCNBLA deeply integrates local information, context information of the word sequence and more informative phrases and words. A novel framework based on deep learning is developed to learn the local representation, the context representation and the combination representation. The left side of the framework is constructed based on CNN to learn the local representation of adjacent words. The right side of the framework based on BiLSTM focuses on learning the context representation of the word sequence. Not all phrases and words contribute equally to the representation of an EMR meaning. Therefore, we establish the attention mechanisms at the phrase level and word level, and the middle module of the framework learns the combination representation of the enhanced phrases and words. The macro average f-score and accuracy of FCNBLA achieved 91.29 and 92.78%, respectively.

Conclusion

The experimental results indicate that FCNBLA yields superior performance compared with several state-of-the-art methods. The attention mechanisms and combination representations are also confirmed to be helpful for improving FCNBLA’s prediction performance. Our method is helpful for assisting doctors in diagnosing diseases in patients.

Integration of whole-body [18F]FDG PET/MRI with non-targeted metabolomics can provide new insights on tissue-specific insulin resistance in type 2 diabetes

Alteration of various metabolites has been linked to type 2 diabetes (T2D) and insulin resistance. However, identifying significant associations between metabolites and tissue-specific phenotypes requires a multi-omics approach. In a cohort of 42 subjects with different levels of glucose tolerance (normal, prediabetes and T2D) matched for age and body mass index, we calculated associations between parameters of whole-body positron emission tomography (PET)/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) during hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp and non-targeted metabolomics profiling for subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) and plasma. Plasma metabolomics profiling revealed that hepatic fat content was positively associated with tyrosine, and negatively associated with lysoPC(P-16:0). Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and SAT insulin sensitivity (Ki), were positively associated with several lysophospholipids, while the opposite applied to branched-chain amino acids. The adipose tissue metabolomics revealed a positive association between non-esterified fatty acids and, VAT and liver Ki. Bile acids and carnitines in adipose tissue were inversely associated with VAT Ki. Furthermore, we detected several metabolites that were significantly higher in T2D than normal/prediabetes. In this study we present novel associations between several metabolites from SAT and plasma with the fat fraction, volume and insulin sensitivity of various tissues throughout the body, demonstrating the benefit of an integrative multi-omics approach.

Nationwide prediction of type 2 diabetes comorbidities

Identification of individuals at risk of developing disease comorbidities represents an important task in tackling the growing personal and societal burdens associated with chronic diseases. We employed machine learning techniques to investigate to what extent data from longitudinal, nationwide Danish health registers can be used to predict individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) comorbidities. Leveraging logistic regression-, random forest- and gradient boosting models and register data spanning hospitalizations, drug prescriptions and contacts with primary care contractors from >200,000 individuals newly diagnosed with T2D, we predicted five-year risk of heart failure (HF), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke (ST), cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). For HF, MI, CVD, and CKD, register-based models outperformed a reference model leveraging canonical individual characteristics by achieving area under the receiver operating characteristic curve improvements of 0.06, 0.03, 0.04, and 0.07, respectively. The top 1,000 patients predicted to be at highest risk exhibited observed incidence ratios exceeding 4.99, 3.52, 1.97 and 4.71 respectively. In summary, prediction of T2D comorbidities utilizing Danish registers led to consistent albeit modest performance improvements over reference models, suggesting that register data could be leveraged to systematically identify individuals at risk of developing disease comorbidities.

Developing a Model to Predict Hospital Encounters for Asthma in Asthmatic Patients: Secondary Analysis

Background

As a major chronic disease, asthma causes many emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations each year. Predictive modeling is a key technology to prospectively identify high-risk asthmatic patients and enroll them in care management for preventive care to reduce future hospital encounters, including inpatient stays and ED visits. However, existing models for predicting hospital encounters in asthmatic patients are inaccurate. Usually, they miss over half of the patients who will incur future hospital encounters and incorrectly classify many others who will not. This makes it difficult to match the limited resources of care management to the patients who will incur future hospital encounters, increasing health care costs and degrading patient outcomes.

Objective

The goal of this study was to develop a more accurate model for predicting hospital encounters in asthmatic patients.

Methods

Secondary analysis of 334,564 data instances from Intermountain Healthcare from 2005 to 2018 was conducted to build a machine learning classification model to predict the hospital encounters for asthma in the following year in asthmatic patients. The patient cohort included all asthmatic patients who resided in Utah or Idaho and visited Intermountain Healthcare facilities during 2005 to 2018. A total of 235 candidate features were considered for model building.

Results

The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.859 (95% CI 0.846-0.871). When the cutoff threshold for conducting binary classification was set at the top 10.00% (1926/19,256) of asthmatic patients with the highest predicted risk, the model reached an accuracy of 90.31% (17,391/19,256; 95% CI 89.86-90.70), a sensitivity of 53.7% (436/812; 95% CI 50.12-57.18), and a specificity of 91.93% (16,955/18,444; 95% CI 91.54-92.31). To steer future research on this topic, we pinpointed several potential improvements to our model.

Conclusions

Our model improves the state of the art for predicting hospital encounters for asthma in asthmatic patients. After further refinement, the model could be integrated into a decision support tool to guide asthma care management allocation.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

RR2-10.2196/resprot.5039

A Review of Methodological Approaches for Developing Diagnostic Algorithms for Diabetes Screening

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Diagnostic algorithms are invaluable tools for screening diabetes. This review aimed to evaluate and identify the most robust methodological approaches for developing diagnostic algorithms for screening diabetes.

METHODS

Following a literature search, methodological quality of algorithm development studies was evaluated using the TRIPOD guidelines (Collins, Reitsma, Altman, & Moons, 2015).

RESULTS

Methods used for developing the algorithms included logistic regression models, classification and regression trees, Random Forest and TreeNet, Artificial Neural Networks, and Naïve Bayes. Methodological issues for algorithm development studies were related to handling of missing values, reporting recruitment methods, categorization of continuous variables, and statistical controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Most studies exhibited critical methodological flaws and poor adherence to reporting standards. Diabetes screening algorithms can easily be availed electronically and utilized by nurses at minimal cost even in underserved areas.

Predicting the onset of type 2 diabetes using wide and deep learning with electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes is responsible for considerable morbidity, healthcare utilisation and mortality in both developed and developing countries. Currently, methods of treating diabetes are inadequate and costly so prevention becomes an important step in reducing the burden of diabetes and its complications. Electronic health records (EHRs) for each individual or a population have become important tools in understanding developing trends of diseases. Using EHRs to predict the onset of diabetes could improve the quality and efficiency of medical care. In this paper, we apply a wide and deep learning model that combines the strength of a generalised linear model with various features and a deep feed-forward neural network to improve the prediction of the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The proposed method was implemented by training various models into a logistic loss function using a stochastic gradient descent. We applied this model using public hospital record data provided by the Practice Fusion EHRs for the United States population. The dataset consists of de-identified electronic health records for 9948 patients, of which 1904 have been diagnosed with T2DM. Prediction of diabetes in 2012 was based on data obtained from previous years (2009-2011). The imbalance class of the model was handled by Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) for each cross-validation training fold to analyse the performance when synthetic examples for the minority class are created. We used SMOTE of 150 and 300 percent, in which 300 percent means that three new synthetic instances are created for each minority class instance. This results in the approximated diabetes:non-diabetes distributions in the training set of 1:2 and 1:1, respectively.

RESULTS

Our final ensemble model not using SMOTE obtained an accuracy of 84.28%, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 84.13%, sensitivity of 31.17% and specificity of 96.85%. Using SMOTE of 150 and 300 percent did not improve AUC (83.33% and 82.12%, respectively) but increased sensitivity (49.40% and 71.57%, respectively) with a moderate decrease in specificity (90.16% and 76.59%, respectively).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Our algorithm has further optimised the prediction of diabetes onset using a novel state-of-the-art machine learning algorithm: the wide and deep learning neural network architecture.

Current Techniques for Diabetes Prediction: Review and Case Study

Diabetes is one of the most common diseases worldwide. Many Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been utilized in predicting diabetes in the last couple of years. The increasing complexity of this problem has inspired researchers to explore the robust set of Deep Learning (DL) algorithms. The highest accuracy achieved so far was 95.1% by a combined model CNN-LSTM. Even though numerous ML algorithms were used in solving this problem, there are a set of classifiers that are rarely used or even not used at all in this problem, so it is of interest to determine the performance of these classifiers in predicting diabetes. Moreover, there is no recent survey that has reviewed and compared the performance of all the proposed ML and DL techniques in addition to combined models. This article surveyed all the ML and DL techniques-based diabetes predictions published in the last six years. In addition, one study was developed that aimed to implement those rarely and not used ML classifiers on the Pima Indian Dataset to analyze their performance. The classifiers obtained an accuracy of 68%–74%. The recommendation is to use these classifiers in diabetes prediction and enhance them by developing combined models.

Significant EHR Feature-Driven T2D Inference: Predictive Machine Learning and Networks

Background: Electronic health records (EHR) play an important role for the redefinition of phenotypes in view of the wealth and heterogeneity of information now available from disparate data sources. A recent cross-sectional retrospective study has described the potential of EHR toward type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) screening when ad hoc models are used. About 10,000 US patients have been analyzed through a variety of inference techniques applied to all records with a variable degree of completeness. The analyses conducted in the reference study have indicated that EHR phenotypes significantly improved T2D detection.

Methods: With these US patients and the T2D data evidenced in the above study, we propose an integrative inference approach that leverages the prediction power of EHR features selected by two well-known methods, Random Forests and Lasso. The goal is 2-fold: reducing the Big Data redundancies potentially harmful to the predictive learning task and exploiting the interconnectivity of EHR features. A mutual information (MI) network is the inference tool used to identify communities useful to prioritize significant T2D features underlying the similarity between patients.

Results: Endowed with a different degree of granularity, the communities detected after the application of both methods were centered especially on T2D comorbidities and risk factors. As such, they appear very relevant for assessment of two main issues, T2D disease burden, and prevention.

Conclusions: Our analytical approach offers a solution for managing the EHR scale factor in a complex disease context. EHR are rich sources of phenotypic diversity through which novel stratifications of patients are expected. To enable these results, both pre-screening of variables and calibration of risk prediction methods become necessary steps in EHR analyses. We have presented networks identifying major T2D communities. The specific significance assigned to comorbidities and risk factors in relation to T2D can be inferred with accuracy from just a suitably reduced number of EHR features.

Combining the Power of Artificial Intelligence with the Richness of Healthcare Claims Data: Opportunities and Challenges

Combinations of healthcare claims data with additional datasets provide large and rich sources of information. The dimensionality and complexity of these combined datasets can be challenging to handle with standard statistical analyses. However, recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have led to algorithms and systems that are able to learn and extract complex patterns from such data. AI has already been applied successfully to such combined datasets, with applications such as improving the insurance claim processing pipeline and reducing estimation biases in retrospective studies. Nevertheless, there is still the potential to do much more. The identification of complex patterns within high dimensional datasets may find new predictors for early onset of diseases or lead to a more proactive offering of personalized preventive services. While there are potential risks and challenges associated with the use of AI, these are not insurmountable. As with the introduction of any innovation, it will be necessary to be thoughtful and responsible as we increasingly apply AI methods in healthcare.

Predicting childhood obesity using electronic health records and publicly available data

BACKGROUND

Because of the strong link between childhood obesity and adulthood obesity comorbidities, and the difficulty in decreasing body mass index (BMI) later in life, effective strategies are needed to address this condition in early childhood. The ability to predict obesity before age five could be a useful tool, allowing prevention strategies to focus on high risk children. The few existing prediction models for obesity in childhood have primarily employed data from longitudinal cohort studies, relying on difficult to collect data that are not readily available to all practitioners. Instead, we utilized real-world unaugmented electronic health record (EHR) data from the first two years of life to predict obesity status at age five, an approach not yet taken in pediatric obesity research.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We trained a variety of machine learning algorithms to perform both binary classification and regression. Following previous studies demonstrating different obesity determinants for boys and girls, we similarly developed separate models for both groups. In each of the separate models for boys and girls we found that weight for length z-score, BMI between 19 and 24 months, and the last BMI measure recorded before age two were the most important features for prediction. The best performing models were able to predict obesity with an Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (AUC) of 81.7% for girls and 76.1% for boys.

CONCLUSIONS

We were able to predict obesity at age five using EHR data with an AUC comparable to cohort-based studies, reducing the need for investment in additional data collection. Our results suggest that machine learning approaches for predicting future childhood obesity using EHR data could improve the ability of clinicians and researchers to drive future policy, intervention design, and the decision-making process in a clinical setting.

Identification of Traditional Chinese Medicine Constitutions and Physiological Indexes Risk Factors in Metabolic Syndrome: A Data Mining Approach

Objective

In order to find the predictive indexes for metabolic syndrome (MS), a data mining method was used to identify significant physiological indexes and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) constitutions.

Methods

The annual health check-up data including physical examination data; biochemical tests and Constitution in Chinese Medicine Questionnaire (CCMQ) measurement data from 2014 to 2016 were screened according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. A predictive matrix was established by the longitudinal data of three consecutive years. TreeNet machine learning algorithm was applied to build prediction model to uncover the dependence relationship between physiological indexes, TCM constitutions, and MS.

Results

By model testing, the overall accuracy rate for prediction model by TreeNet was 73.23%. Top 12.31% individuals in test group (n=325) that have higher probability of having MS covered 23.68% MS patients, showing 0.92 times more risk of having MS than the general population. Importance of ranked top 15 was listed in descending order . The top 5 variables of great importance in MS prediction were TBIL difference between 2014 and 2015 (D_TBIL), TBIL in 2014 (TBIL 2014), LDL-C difference between 2014 and 2015 (D_LDL-C), CCMQ scores for balanced constitution in 2015 (balanced constitution 2015), and TCH in 2015 (TCH 2015). When D_TBIL was between 0 and 2, TBIL 2014 was between 10 and 15, D_LDL-C was above 19, balanced constitution 2015 was below 60, or TCH 2015 was above 5.7, the incidence of MS was higher. Furthermore, there were interactions between balanced constitution 2015 score and TBIL 2014 or D_LDL-C in MS prediction.

Conclusion

Balanced constitution, TBIL, LDL-C, and TCH level can act as predictors for MS. The combination of TCM constitution and physiological indexes can give early warning to MS.

Predicting the early risk of chronic kidney disease in patients with diabetes using real-world data

Diagnostic procedures, therapeutic recommendations, and medical risk stratifications are based on dedicated, strictly controlled clinical trials. However, a plethora of real-world medical data exists, whereupon the increase in data volume comes at the expense of completeness, uniformity, and control. Here, a case-by-case comparison shows that the predictive power of our real world data-based model for diabetes-related chronic kidney disease outperforms published algorithms, which were derived from clinical study data.

Digital Diabetes Data and Artificial Intelligence: A Time for Humility Not Hubris

In the future artificial intelligence (AI) will have the potential to improve outcomes diabetes care. With the creation of new sensors for physiological monitoring sensors and the introduction of smart insulin pens, novel data relationships based on personal phenotypic and genotypic information will lead to selections of tailored, effective therapies that will transform health care. However, decision-making processes based exclusively on quantitative metrics that ignore qualitative factors could create a quantitative fallacy. Difficult to quantify inputs into AI-based therapeutic decision-making processes include empathy, compassion, experience, and unconscious bias. Failure to consider these "softer" variables could lead to important errors. In other words, that which is not quantified about human health and behavior is still part of the calculus for determining therapeutic interventions.

Predicting drug-resistant epilepsy - A machine learning approach based on administrative claims data

Patients with drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE) are at high risk of morbidity and mortality, yet their referral to specialist care is frequently delayed. The ability to identify patients at high risk of DRE at the time of treatment initiation, and to subsequently steer their treatment pathway toward more personalized interventions, has high clinical utility. Here, we aim to demonstrate the feasibility of developing algorithms for predicting DRE using machine learning methods. Longitudinal, intersected data sourced from US pharmacy, medical, and adjudicated hospital claims from 1,376,756 patients from 2006 to 2015 were analyzed; 292,892 met inclusion criteria for epilepsy, and 38,382 were classified as having DRE using a proxy measure for drug resistance. Patients were characterized using 1270 features reflecting demographics, comorbidities, medications, procedures, epilepsy status, and payer status. Data from 175,735 randomly selected patients were used to train three algorithms and from the remainder to assess the trained models' predictive power. A model with only age and sex was used as a benchmark. The best model, random forest, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 0.764 (0.759, 0.770), compared with 0.657 (0.651, 0.663) for the benchmark model. Moreover, predicted probabilities for DRE were well-calibrated with the observed frequencies in the data. The model predicted drug resistance approximately 2 years before patients in the test dataset had failed two antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). Machine learning models constructed using claims data predicted which patients are likely to fail ≥3 AEDs and are at risk of developing DRE at the time of the first AED prescription. The use of such models can ensure that patients with predicted DRE receive specialist care with potentially more aggressive therapeutic interventions from diagnosis, to help reduce the serious sequelae of DRE.

Prediction of Glucose Metabolism Disorder Risk Using a Machine Learning Algorithm: Pilot Study

Background

A 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) provides important information about glucose metabolism, although the test is expensive and invasive. Complete OGTT information, such as 1-hour and 2-hour postloading plasma glucose and immunoreactive insulin levels, may be useful for predicting the future risk of diabetes or glucose metabolism disorders (GMD), which includes both diabetes and prediabetes.

Objective

We trained several classification models for predicting the risk of developing diabetes or GMD using data from thousands of OGTTs and a machine learning technique (XGBoost). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and their area under the curve (AUC) values for the trained classification models are reported, along with the sensitivity and specificity determined by the cutoff values of the Youden index. We compared the performance of the machine learning techniques with logistic regressions (LR), which are traditionally used in medical research studies.

Methods

Data were collected from subjects who underwent multiple OGTTs during comprehensive check-up medical examinations conducted at a single facility in Tokyo, Japan, from May 2006 to April 2017. For each examination, a subject was diagnosed with diabetes or prediabetes according to the American Diabetes Association guidelines. Given the data, 2 studies were conducted: predicting the risk of developing diabetes (study 1) or GMD (study 2). For each study, to apply supervised machine learning methods, the required label data was prepared. If a subject was diagnosed with diabetes or GMD at least once during the period, then that subject’s data obtained in previous trials were classified into the risk group (y=1). After data processing, 13,581 and 6760 OGTTs were analyzed for study 1 and study 2, respectively. For each study, a randomly chosen subset representing 80% of the data was used for training 9 classification models and the remaining 20% was used for evaluating the models. Three classification models, A to C, used XGBoost with various input variables, some including OGTT data. The other 6 classification models, D to I, used LR for comparison.

Results

For study 1, the AUC values ranged from 0.78 to 0.93. For study 2, the AUC values ranged from 0.63 to 0.78. The machine learning approach using XGBoost showed better performance compared with traditional LR methods. The AUC values increased when the full OGTT variables were included. In our analysis using a particular setting of input variables, XGBoost showed that the OGTT variables were more important than fasting plasma glucose or glycated hemoglobin.

Conclusions

A machine learning approach, XGBoost, showed better prediction accuracy compared with LR, suggesting that advanced machine learning methods are useful for detecting the early signs of diabetes or GMD. The prediction accuracy increased when all OGTT variables were added. This indicates that complete OGTT information is important for predicting the future risk of diabetes and GMD accurately.

Predicting Diabetes Mellitus With Machine Learning Techniques

Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease characterized by hyperglycemia. It may cause many complications. According to the growing morbidity in recent years, in 2040, the world’s diabetic patients will reach 642 million, which means that one of the ten adults in the future is suffering from diabetes. There is no doubt that this alarming figure needs great attention. With the rapid development of machine learning, machine learning has been applied to many aspects of medical health. In this study, we used decision tree, random forest and neural network to predict diabetes mellitus. The dataset is the hospital physical examination data in Luzhou, China. It contains 14 attributes. In this study, five-fold cross validation was used to examine the models. In order to verity the universal applicability of the methods, we chose some methods that have the better performance to conduct independent test experiments. We randomly selected 68994 healthy people and diabetic patients’ data, respectively as training set. Due to the data unbalance, we randomly extracted 5 times data. And the result is the average of these five experiments. In this study, we used principal component analysis (PCA) and minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR) to reduce the dimensionality. The results showed that prediction with random forest could reach the highest accuracy (ACC = 0.8084) when all the attributes were used.

Stacked classifiers for individualized prediction of glycemic control following initiation of metformin therapy in type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Metformin is the preferred first-line medication for management of type 2 diabetes and prediabetes. However, over a third of patients experience primary or secondary therapeutic failure. We developed machine learning models to predict which patients initially prescribed metformin will achieve and maintain control of their blood glucose after one year of therapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of administrative claims data for 12,147 commercially-insured adults and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries with prediabetes or diabetes. Several machine learning models were trained using variables available at the time of metformin initiation to predict achievement and maintenance of hemoglobin A_1c (HbA_1c) < 7.0% after one year of therapy.

RESULTS

AUC performances based on five-fold cross-validation ranged from 0.58 to 0.75. The most influential variables driving the predictions were baseline HbA_1c, starting metformin dosage, and presence of diabetes with complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning models can effectively predict primary or secondary metformin treatment failure within one year. This information can help identify effective individualized treatment strategies. Most of the implemented models outperformed traditional logistic regression, highlighting the potential for applying machine learning to problems in medicine.

Diabetes Fact Sheet in Korea, 2016: An Appraisal of Current Status

BACKGROUND

This report presents the recent prevalence and comorbidities related to diabetes in Korea by analyzing the nationally representative data.

METHODS

Using data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for 2013 to 2014, the percentages and the total number of subjects over the age of 30 years with diabetes and prediabetes were estimated and applied to the National Population Census in 2014. Diagnosis of diabetes was based on fasting plasma glucose (≥126 mg/dL), current taking of antidiabetic medication, history of previous diabetes, or glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥6.5%. Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) was defined by fasting plasma glucose in the range of 100 to 125 mg/dL among those without diabetes.

RESULTS

About 4.8 million (13.7%) Korean adults (≥30 years old) had diabetes, and about 8.3 million (24.8%) Korean adults had IFG. However, 29.3% of the subjects with diabetes are not aware of their condition. Of the subjects with diabetes, 48.6% and 54.7% were obese and hypertensive, respectively, and 31.6% had hypercholesterolemia. Although most subjects with diabetes (89.1%) were under medical treatment, and mostly being treated with oral hypoglycemic agents (80.2%), 10.8% have remained untreated. With respect to overall glycemic control, 43.5% reached the target of HbA1c <7%, whereas 23.3% reached the target when the standard was set to HbA1c <6.5%, according to the Korean Diabetes Association guideline.

CONCLUSION

Diabetes is a major public health threat in Korea, but a significant proportion of adults were not controlling their illness. We need comprehensive approaches to overcome the upcoming diabetes-related disease burden in Korea.

The Impact of Big Data on Chronic Disease Management

Population health management and specifically chronic disease management depend on the ability of providers to prevent development of high-cost and high-risk conditions such as diabetes, heart failure, and chronic respiratory diseases and to control them. The advent of big data analytics has potential to empower health care providers to make timely and truly evidence-based informed decisions to provide more effective and personalized treatment while reducing the costs of this care to patients. The goal of this study was to identify real-world health care applications of big data analytics to determine its effectiveness in both patient outcomes and the relief of financial burdens. The methodology for this study was a literature review utilizing 49 articles. Evidence of big data analytics being largely beneficial in the areas of risk prediction, diagnostic accuracy and patient outcome improvement, hospital readmission reduction, treatment guidance, and cost reduction was noted. Initial applications of big data analytics have proved useful in various phases of chronic disease management and could help reduce the chronic disease burden.

A Systematic Review on Healthcare Analytics: Application and Theoretical Perspective of Data Mining

The growing healthcare industry is generating a large volume of useful data on patient demographics, treatment plans, payment, and insurance coverage—attracting the attention of clinicians and scientists alike. In recent years, a number of peer-reviewed articles have addressed different dimensions of data mining application in healthcare. However, the lack of a comprehensive and systematic narrative motivated us to construct a literature review on this topic. In this paper, we present a review of the literature on healthcare analytics using data mining and big data. Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we conducted a database search between 2005 and 2016. Critical elements of the selected studies—healthcare sub-areas, data mining techniques, types of analytics, data, and data sources—were extracted to provide a systematic view of development in this field and possible future directions. We found that the existing literature mostly examines analytics in clinical and administrative decision-making. Use of human-generated data is predominant considering the wide adoption of Electronic Medical Record in clinical care. However, analytics based on website and social media data has been increasing in recent years. Lack of prescriptive analytics in practice and integration of domain expert knowledge in the decision-making process emphasizes the necessity of future research.

IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2017 and projections for 2045

INTRODUCTION

Since the year 2000, IDF has been measuring the prevalence of diabetes nationally, regionally and globally.

AIM

To produce estimates of the global burden of diabetes and its impact for 2017 and projections for 2045.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted to identify published studies on the prevalence of diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance and hyperglycaemia in pregnancy in the period from 1990 to 2016. The highest quality studies on diabetes prevalence were selected for each country. A logistic regression model was used to generate age-specific prevalence estimates or each country. Estimates for countries without data were extrapolated from similar countries.

RESULTS

It was estimated that in 2017 there are 451 million (age 18-99 years) people with diabetes worldwide. These figures were expected to increase to 693 million) by 2045. It was estimated that almost half of all people (49.7%) living with diabetes are undiagnosed. Moreover, there was an estimated 374 million people with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and it was projected that almost 21.3 million live births to women were affected by some form of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. In 2017, approximately 5 million deaths worldwide were attributable to diabetes in the 20-99 years age range. The global healthcare expenditure on people with diabetes was estimated to be USD 850 billion in 2017.

CONCLUSION

The new estimates of diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes and healthcare expenditure due to diabetes present a large social, financial and health system burden across the world.

Comparing deep learning and concept extraction based methods for patient phenotyping from clinical narratives

In secondary analysis of electronic health records, a crucial task consists in correctly identifying the patient cohort under investigation. In many cases, the most valuable and relevant information for an accurate classification of medical conditions exist only in clinical narratives. Therefore, it is necessary to use natural language processing (NLP) techniques to extract and evaluate these narratives. The most commonly used approach to this problem relies on extracting a number of clinician-defined medical concepts from text and using machine learning techniques to identify whether a particular patient has a certain condition. However, recent advances in deep learning and NLP enable models to learn a rich representation of (medical) language. Convolutional neural networks (CNN) for text classification can augment the existing techniques by leveraging the representation of language to learn which phrases in a text are relevant for a given medical condition. In this work, we compare concept extraction based methods with CNNs and other commonly used models in NLP in ten phenotyping tasks using 1,610 discharge summaries from the MIMIC-III database. We show that CNNs outperform concept extraction based methods in almost all of the tasks, with an improvement in F1-score of up to 26 and up to 7 percentage points in area under the ROC curve (AUC). We additionally assess the interpretability of both approaches by presenting and evaluating methods that calculate and extract the most salient phrases for a prediction. The results indicate that CNNs are a valid alternative to existing approaches in patient phenotyping and cohort identification, and should be further investigated. Moreover, the deep learning approach presented in this paper can be used to assist clinicians during chart review or support the extraction of billing codes from text by identifying and highlighting relevant phrases for various medical conditions.

Data Mining Approach to Identify Disease Cohorts from Primary Care Electronic Medical Records: A Case of Diabetes Mellitus

Background:

Identification of diseased patients from primary care based electronic medical records (EMRs) has methodological challenges that may impact epidemiologic inferences.

Objective:

To compare deterministic clinically guided selection algorithms with probabilistic machine learning (ML) methodologies for their ability to identify patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from large population based EMRs from nationally representative primary care database.

Methods:

Four cohorts of patients with T2DM were defined by deterministic approach based on disease codes. The database was mined for a set of best predictors of T2DM and the performance of six ML algorithms were compared based on cross-validated true positive rate, true negative rate, and area under receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results:

In the database of 11,018,025 research suitable individuals, 379 657 (3.4%) were coded to have T2DM. Logistic Regression classifier was selected as best ML algorithm and resulted in a cohort of 383,330 patients with potential T2DM. Eighty-three percent (83%) of this cohort had a T2DM code, and 16% of the patients with T2DM code were not included in this ML cohort. Of those in the ML cohort without disease code, 52% had at least one measure of elevated glucose level and 22% had received at least one prescription for antidiabetic medication.

Conclusion:

Deterministic cohort selection based on disease coding potentially introduces significant mis-classification problem. ML techniques allow testing for potential disease predictors, and under meaningful data input, are able to identify diseased cohorts in a holistic way.

Systems and precision medicine approaches to diabetes heterogeneity: a Big Data perspective

Big Data, and in particular Electronic Health Records, provide the medical community with a great opportunity to analyze multiple pathological conditions at an unprecedented depth for many complex diseases, including diabetes. How can we infer on diabetes from large heterogeneous datasets? A possible solution is provided by invoking next-generation computational methods and data analytics tools within systems medicine approaches. By deciphering the multi-faceted complexity of biological systems, the potential of emerging diagnostic tools and therapeutic functions can be ultimately revealed. In diabetes, a multidimensional approach to data analysis is needed to better understand the disease conditions, trajectories and the associated comorbidities. Elucidation of multidimensionality comes from the analysis of factors such as disease phenotypes, marker types, and biological motifs while seeking to make use of multiple levels of information including genetics, omics, clinical data, and environmental and lifestyle factors. Examining the synergy between multiple dimensions represents a challenge. In such regard, the role of Big Data fuels the rise of Precision Medicine by allowing an increasing number of descriptions to be captured from individuals. Thus, data curations and analyses should be designed to deliver highly accurate predicted risk profiles and treatment recommendations. It is important to establish linkages between systems and precision medicine in order to translate their principles into clinical practice. Equivalently, to realize their full potential, the involved multiple dimensions must be able to process information ensuring inter-exchange, reducing ambiguities and redundancies, and ultimately improving health care solutions by introducing clinical decision support systems focused on reclassified phenotypes (or digital biomarkers) and community-driven patient stratifications.

Machine learning in laboratory medicine: waiting for the flood?

This review focuses on machine learning and on how methods and models combining data analytics and artificial intelligence have been applied to laboratory medicine so far. Although still in its infancy, the potential for applying machine learning to laboratory data for both diagnostic and prognostic purposes deserves more attention by the readership of this journal, as well as by physician-scientists who will want to take advantage of this new computer-based support in pathology and laboratory medicine.

Targeting weight loss interventions to reduce cardiovascular complications of type 2 diabetes: a machine learning-based post-hoc analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects in the Look AHEAD trial

BACKGROUND

The Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD) trial investigated whether long-term cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality could be reduced through a weight loss intervention among people with type 2 diabetes. Despite finding no significant reduction in cardiovascular events on average, it is possible that some subpopulations might have derived benefit. In this post-hoc analysis, we test the hypothesis that the overall neutral average treatment effect in the trial masked important heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from intensive weight loss interventions.

METHODS

We used causal forest modelling, which identifies HTEs, using a random half of the trial data (the training set). We applied Cox proportional hazards models to test the potential HTEs on the remaining half of the data (the testing set). The analysis was deemed exempt from review by the Columbia University Institutional Review Board, Protocol ID# AAAO3003.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 22, 2001, and April 30, 2004, 5145 patients with type 2 diabetes were enrolled in the Look AHEAD randomised controlled trial, of whom 4901 were included in the The National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases Repository and included in our analyses: 2450 for model development and 2451 in the testing dataset. Baseline HbA1c and self-reported general health distinguished participants who differentially benefited from the intervention. Cox models for the primary composite cardiovascular outcome revealed a number needed to treat of 28·9 to prevent 1 event over 9·6 years among participants with HbA1c 6·8% or higher, or both HbA1c less than 6·8% and Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) general health score of 48 or more (2101 [86%] of 2451 participants in the testing dataset; 167 [16%] of 1046 primary outcome events for intervention vs 205 [19%] of 1055 for control, absolute risk reduction of 3·46%, 95% CI 0·21-6·73%, p=0·038) By contrast, participants with HbA1c less than 6·8% and baseline SF-36 general health score of less than 48 (350 [14%] of 2451 participants in the testing data; 27 [16%] of 171 primary outcome events for intervention vs 15 [8%] of 179 primary outcome events for control) had an absolute risk increase of the primary outcome of 7·41% (0·60 to 14·22, p=0·003).

INTERPRETATION

Look AHEAD participants with moderately or poorly controlled diabetes (HbA1c 6·8% or higher) and subjects with well controlled diabetes (HbA1c less than 6·8%) and good self-reported health (85% of the overall study population) averted cardiovascular events from a behavioural intervention aimed at weight loss. However, 15% of participants with well controlled diabetes and poor self-reported general health experienced negative effects that rendered the overall study outcome neutral. HbA1c and a short questionnaire on general health might identify people with type 2 diabetes likely to derive benefit from an intensive lifestyle intervention aimed at weight loss.

FUNDING

None.

A Roadmap for Optimizing Asthma Care Management via Computational Approaches

Asthma affects 9% of Americans and incurs US $56 billion in cost, 439,000 hospitalizations, and 1.8 million emergency room visits annually. A small fraction of asthma patients with high vulnerabilities, severe disease, or great barriers to care consume most health care costs and resources. An effective approach is urgently needed to identify high-risk patients and intervene to improve outcomes and to reduce costs and resource use. Care management is widely used to implement tailored care plans for this purpose, but it is expensive and has limited service capacity. To maximize benefit, we should enroll only patients anticipated to have the highest costs or worst prognosis. Effective care management requires correctly identifying high-risk patients, but current patient identification approaches have major limitations. This paper pinpoints these limitations and outlines multiple machine learning techniques to address them, providing a roadmap for future research.

Learning a Health Knowledge Graph from Electronic Medical Records

Demand for clinical decision support systems in medicine and self-diagnostic symptom checkers has substantially increased in recent years. Existing platforms rely on knowledge bases manually compiled through a labor-intensive process or automatically derived using simple pairwise statistics. This study explored an automated process to learn high quality knowledge bases linking diseases and symptoms directly from electronic medical records. Medical concepts were extracted from 273,174 de-identified patient records and maximum likelihood estimation of three probabilistic models was used to automatically construct knowledge graphs: logistic regression, naive Bayes classifier and a Bayesian network using noisy OR gates. A graph of disease-symptom relationships was elicited from the learned parameters and the constructed knowledge graphs were evaluated and validated, with permission, against Google’s manually-constructed knowledge graph and against expert physician opinions. Our study shows that direct and automated construction of high quality health knowledge graphs from medical records using rudimentary concept extraction is feasible. The noisy OR model produces a high quality knowledge graph reaching precision of 0.85 for a recall of 0.6 in the clinical evaluation. Noisy OR significantly outperforms all tested models across evaluation frameworks (p < 0.01).

IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040

AIM

To produce current estimates of the national, regional and global impact of diabetes for 2015 and 2040.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted to identify data sources on the prevalence of diabetes from studies conducted in the period from 1990 to 2015. An analytic hierarchy process was used to select the most appropriate studies for each country, and estimates for countries without data were modelled using extrapolation from similar countries that had available data. A logistic regression model was used to generate smoothed age-specific estimates, which were applied to UN population estimates.

RESULTS

540 data sources were reviewed, of which 196 sources from 111 countries were selected. In 2015 it was estimated that there were 415 million (uncertainty interval: 340-536 million) people with diabetes aged 20-79years, 5.0 million deaths attributable to diabetes, and the total global health expenditure due to diabetes was estimated at 673 billion US dollars. Three quarters (75%) of those with diabetes were living in low- and middle-income countries. The number of people with diabetes aged 20-79years was predicted to rise to 642 million (uncertainty interval: 521-829 million) by 2040.

CONCLUSION

Diabetes prevalence, deaths attributable to diabetes, and health expenditure due to diabetes continue to rise across the globe with important social, financial and health system implications.

Improved Risk Prediction Following Surgery Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Background:

Machine learning is used to analyze big data, often for the purposes of prediction. Analyzing a patient’s healthcare utilization pattern may provide more precise estimates of risk for adverse events (AE) or death. We sought to characterize healthcare utilization prior to surgery using machine learning for the purposes of risk prediction.

Methods:

Patients from MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database undergoing elective surgery from 2007–2012 with ≥1 comorbidity were included. All available healthcare claims occurring within six months prior to surgery were assessed. More than 300 predictors were defined by considering all combinations of conditions, encounter types, and timing along with sociodemographic factors. We used a supervised Naive Bayes algorithm to predict risk of AE or death within 90 days of surgery. We compared the model’s performance to the Charlson’s comorbidity index, a commonly used risk prediction tool.

Results:

Among 410,521 patients (mean age 52, 52 ± 9.4, 56% female), 4.7% had an AE and 0.01% died. The Charlson’s comorbidity index predicted 57% of AE’s and 59% of deaths. The Naive Bayes algorithm predicted 79% of AE’s and 78% of deaths. Claims for cancer, kidney disease, and peripheral vascular disease were the primary drivers of AE or death following surgery.

Conclusions:

The use of machine learning algorithms improves upon one commonly used risk estimator. Precisely quantifying the risk of an AE following surgery may better inform patient-centered decision-making and direct targeted quality improvement interventions while supporting activities of accountable care organizations that rely on accurate estimates of population risk.

Machine Learning and Data Mining Methods in Diabetes Research

The remarkable advances in biotechnology and health sciences have led to a significant production of data, such as high throughput genetic data and clinical information, generated from large Electronic Health Records (EHRs). To this end, application of machine learning and data mining methods in biosciences is presently, more than ever before, vital and indispensable in efforts to transform intelligently all available information into valuable knowledge. Diabetes mellitus (DM) is defined as a group of metabolic disorders exerting significant pressure on human health worldwide. Extensive research in all aspects of diabetes (diagnosis, etiopathophysiology, therapy, etc.) has led to the generation of huge amounts of data. The aim of the present study is to conduct a systematic review of the applications of machine learning, data mining techniques and tools in the field of diabetes research with respect to a) Prediction and Diagnosis, b) Diabetic Complications, c) Genetic Background and Environment, and e) Health Care and Management with the first category appearing to be the most popular. A wide range of machine learning algorithms were employed. In general, 85% of those used were characterized by supervised learning approaches and 15% by unsupervised ones, and more specifically, association rules. Support vector machines (SVM) arise as the most successful and widely used algorithm. Concerning the type of data, clinical datasets were mainly used. The title applications in the selected articles project the usefulness of extracting valuable knowledge leading to new hypotheses targeting deeper understanding and further investigation in DM.

From Value Assessment to Value Cocreation: Informing Clinical Decision-Making with Medical Claims Data

Big data and advances in analytical processes represent an opportunity for the healthcare industry to make better evidence-based decisions on the value generated by various tests, procedures, and interventions. Value-based reimbursement is the process of identifying and compensating healthcare providers based on whether their services improve quality of care without increasing cost of care or maintain quality of care while decreasing costs. In this article, we motivate and illustrate the potential opportunities for payers and providers to collaborate and evaluate the clinical and economic efficacy of different healthcare services. We conduct a case study of a firm that offers advanced biomarker and disease state management services for cardiovascular and cardiometabolic conditions. A value-based analysis that comprised a retrospective case/control cohort design was conducted, and claims data for over 7000 subjects who received these services were compared to a matched control cohort. Study subjects were commercial and Medicare Advantage enrollees with evidence of CHD, diabetes, or a related condition. Analysis of medical claims data showed a lower proportion of patients who received biomarker testing and disease state management services experienced a MI (p < 0.01) or diabetic complications (p < 0.001). No significant increase in cost of care was found between the two cohorts. Our results illustrate the opportunity healthcare payers such as Medicare and commercial insurance companies have in terms of identifying value-creating healthcare interventions. However, payers and providers also need to pursue system integration efforts to further automate the identification and dissemination of clinically and economically efficacious treatment plans to ensure at-risk patients receive the treatments and interventions that will benefit them the most.