Theoretical Basis of the Test-Negative Study Design for Assessment of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness

Current Challenges With the Use of Test-Negative Designs for Modeling COVID-19 Vaccination and Outcomes

The widespread testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection has facilitated the use of test-negative designs (TNDs) for modeling coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and outcomes. Despite the comprehensive literature on TND, the use of TND in COVID-19 studies is relatively new and calls for robust design and analysis to adapt to a rapidly changing and dynamically evolving pandemic and to account for changes in testing and reporting practices. In this commentary, we aim to draw the attention of researchers to COVID-specific challenges in using TND as we are analyzing data amassed over more than two years of the pandemic. We first review when and why TND works and general challenges in TND studies presented in the literature. We then discuss COVID-specific challenges which have not received adequate acknowledgment but may add to the risk of invalid conclusions in TND studies of COVID-19.

Real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron BA.2 variant in a SARS-CoV-2 infection-naive population

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has demonstrated enhanced transmissibility and escape of vaccine-derived immunity. Although first-generation vaccines remain effective against severe disease and death, robust evidence on vaccine effectiveness (VE) against all Omicron infections, irrespective of symptoms, remains sparse. We used a community-wide serosurvey with 5,310 subjects to estimate how vaccination histories modulated risk of infection in infection-naive Hong Kong during a large wave of Omicron BA.2 epidemic in January-July 2022. We estimated that Omicron infected 45% (41-48%) of the local population. Three and four doses of BNT162b2 or CoronaVac were effective against Omicron infection 7 days after vaccination (VE of 48% (95% credible interval 34-64%) and 69% (46-98%) for three and four doses of BNT162b2, respectively; VE of 30% (1-66%) and 56% (6-97%) for three and four doses of CoronaVac, respectively). At 100 days after immunization, VE waned to 26% (7-41%) and 35% (10-71%) for three and four doses of BNT162b2, and to 6% (0-29%) and 11% (0-54%) for three and four doses of CoronaVac. The rapid waning of VE against infection conferred by first-generation vaccines and an increasingly complex viral evolutionary landscape highlight the necessity for rapidly deploying updated vaccines followed by vigilant monitoring of VE.

Association of cannabis use during pregnancy with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cannabis use is increasingly common among pregnant individuals and might be a risk factor for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We aimed to test whether prenatal cannabis use is associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

The study was conducted in California, USA.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 58 114 pregnancies (with outcomes from 5 March 2020 to 30 September 2021) among 57 287 unique pregnant women aged 14-54 years who were screened for prenatal substance use, enrolled in Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) (a health-care system) and had not tested positive for COVID-19 prior to pregnancy onset.

MEASUREMENTS

We utilized data from the KPNC electronic health record. Cannabis use status (current, recently quit and non-user) was based on universal screenings during prenatal care (including urine toxicology testing and self-reported use on a self-administered questionnaire). SARS-CoV-2 infection [based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests] was estimated in time-to-event analyses using Cox proportional hazard regression models adjusting for covariates. Secondary analyses examined differences in (a) SARS-CoV-2 testing rates and (b) SARS-CoV-2 infection rates among those tested.

FINDINGS

We observed 348 810 person-months of follow-up time in our cohort with 41 064 SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests and 6% (n = 2414) of tests being positive. At the start of follow-up, 7% of pregnant individuals had current use, 12% had recently quit and 81% did not use cannabis. Adjusting for covariates, current use was associated with lower rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.49-0.74 than non-use. Those who had recently quit did not differ from non-cannabis users in infection rates (aHR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.86-1.08). Sensitivity analyses among patients who received a SARS-CoV-2 test also found lower odds of infection associated with current versus no cannabis use (aOR = 0.76, CI = 0.61-0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

Current cannabis use appears to be associated with a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among pregnant individuals.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in people living with HIV in British Columbia and comparisons with a matched HIV-negative cohort: a test-negative design

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection among people living with HIV (PLWH) and compared the estimates with a matched HIV-negative cohort.

METHODS

We used the British Columbia COVID-19 Cohort, a population-based data platform, which integrates COVID-19 data on SARS-CoV-2 tests, laboratory-confirmed cases, and immunizations with provincial health services data. The vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated with a test-negative design using the multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

The adjusted VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection was 71.1% (39.7, 86.1%) 7-59 days after two doses, rising to 89.3% (72.2, 95.9%) between 60 and 89 days. VE was preserved 4-6 months after the receipt of two doses, after which noticeable waning was observed (51.3% [4.8, 75.0%]). In the matched HIV-negative cohort (n = 375,043), VE peaked at 91.4% (90.9, 91.8%) 7-59 days after two doses and was sustained for up to 4 months, after which evidence of waning was observed, dropping to 84.2% (83.4, 85.0%) between 4 and 6 months.

CONCLUSION

The receipt of two COVID-19 vaccine doses was effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection among PLWH pre-Omicron. VE estimates appeared to peak later in PLWH than in the matched HIV-negative cohort and the degree of waning was relatively quicker in PLWH; however, peak estimates were comparable in both populations.

Vaccine effectiveness against Delta, Omicron BA.1, and BA.2 in a highly vaccinated Asian setting: a test-negative design study

OBJECTIVES

We compared the vaccine effectiveness over time of the primary series and booster against infection and severe disease with the Delta, Omicron BA.1, and BA.2 variants in Singapore, an Asian setting with high vaccination coverage.

METHODS

We conducted a test-negative case-control study on all adult residents in Singapore who underwent PCR testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in acute hospitals. Individuals with a negative PCR from 1 September, 2021, to 30 November, 2021, and 1 December, 2021, to 25 April, 2022, served as controls for the Delta and Omicron variants respectively, and PCR-positive individuals within these two time periods served as cases. Associations between vaccination status and SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease with the Delta or Omicron variants were measured using Poisson regressions. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated by taking 1 minus risk ratio.

RESULTS

There were 68 114 individuals comprising 58 495 controls and 9619 cases for the Delta period, of whom 53 093 completed the primary series and 9161 were boosted. For the Omicron period, 104 601 individuals comprising 80 428 controls, 8643 BA.1 cases, and 15 530 BA.2 cases were included, of whom 29 183 and 71 513 were vaccinated with the primary series and boosted, respectively. The primary series provided greater protection against infection with Delta (45%, 95% CI 40-50%) than against infection with Omicron (21%, 95% CI 7-34% for BA.1; 18%, 95% CI 6-29% for BA.2) at <2 months from vaccination. Vaccine effectiveness of the booster was similar against infection with BA.1 (44%, 95% CI 38-50%) and BA.2 (40%, 95% CI 35-40%). Protection against severe disease by the booster for BA.1 (83%, 95% CI 76-88%) and BA.2 (78%, 95% CI 73-82%) was comparable to that by the primary series for Delta (80%, 95% CI 73-85%).

CONCLUSION

Our findings support the use of a booster dose to reduce the risk of severe disease and mitigate the impact on the healthcare system in an Omicron-predominant epidemic.

Typhoid conjugate vaccine effectiveness in Malawi: evaluation of a test-negative design using randomised, controlled clinical trial data

BACKGROUND

Typhoid conjugate vaccines are being introduced in low-income and middle-income countries to prevent typhoid illness in children. Vaccine effectiveness studies assess vaccine performance after introduction. The test-negative design is a commonly used method to estimate vaccine effectiveness that has not been applied to typhoid vaccines because of concerns over blood culture insensitivity. The overall aim of the study was to evaluate the appropriateness of using a test-negative design to assess typhoid Vi polysaccharide-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine (Vi-TT) effectiveness using a gold standard randomised controlled trial database.

METHODS

Using blood culture data from a randomised controlled trial of Vi-TT in Malawi, we simulated a test-negative design to derive vaccine effectiveness estimates using three different approaches and compared these to randomised trial efficacy results. In the randomised trial, 27 882 children aged 9 months to 12 years were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive a single dose of Vi-TT or meningococcal capsular group A conjugate vaccine between Feb 21 and Sept 27, 2018, and were followed up for blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever until Sept 30, 2021.

FINDINGS

For all three test-negative design approaches, vaccine effectiveness estimates (test-negative design A, 80·3% [95% CI 66·2 to 88·5] vs test-negative design B, 80·5% [66·5 to 88·6] vs test-negative design C, 80·4% [66·9 to 88·4]) were almost identical to the randomised trial results (80·4% [95% CI 66·4 to 88·5]). Receipt of Vi-TT did not affect the risk of non-typhoid fever (vaccine efficacy against non-typhoid fever -0·4% [95% CI -4·9 to 3·9] vs -1% [-5·6 to 3·3] vs -2·5% [-6·4 to 1·3] for test-negative design A, test-negative design B, and test-negative design C, respectively).

INTERPRETATION

This study validates the test-negative design core assumption for typhoid vaccine effectiveness estimation and shows the accuracy and precision of the estimates compared with the randomised controlled trial. These results show that the test-negative design is suitable for assessing typhoid conjugate vaccine effectiveness in post-introduction studies using blood culture surveillance.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Hospitalization, and Death in Vaccinated and Infected Individuals by Age Groups in Indiana, 2021‒2022

Objectives. To assess the effectiveness of vaccine-induced immunity against new infections, all-cause emergency department (ED) and hospital visits, and mortality in Indiana. Methods. Combining statewide testing and immunization data with patient medical records, we matched individuals who received at least 1 dose of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines with individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection on index date, age, gender, race/ethnicity, zip code, and clinical diagnoses. We compared the cumulative incidence of infection, all-cause ED visits, hospitalizations, and mortality. Results. We matched 267 847 pairs of individuals. Six months after the index date, the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was significantly higher in vaccine recipients (6.7%) than the previously infected (2.9%). All-cause mortality in the vaccinated, however, was 37% lower than that of the previously infected. The rates of all-cause ED visits and hospitalizations were 24% and 37% lower in the vaccinated than in the previously infected. Conclusions. The significantly lower rates of all-cause ED visits, hospitalizations, and mortality in the vaccinated highlight the real-world benefits of vaccination. The data raise questions about the wisdom of reliance on natural immunity when safe and effective vaccines are available. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(1):96-104. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307112).

Reduction in COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Seoul according to Age, Sex, and Symptoms: A Test-Negative Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

We evaluated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infections with SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in Seoul, the capital of the Republic of Korea, having the highest population density in the country, under real-world conditions.

METHODS

We evaluated the reduction in the effectiveness of mRNA and viral-vector COVID-19 vaccines against infection by the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in a subpopulation from April 2021 to July 2021 who visited screening clinics in Seoul using a test-negative case-control study design. Moreover, we conducted a case-control study matching the ten-year-old age group, sex, healthcare workers, and five districts of Seoul, which are considered confounding factors.

RESULTS

The full VE in the pre-delta-dominant period was 95.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 91.2-97.2); however, it decreased to 61.1% (95% CI: 53.2-67.6) during the delta-dominant period. Notably, we found that COVID-19 VE was significantly decreased in individuals aged ≥80 years (52.9%, 95% CI: -9.9-79.8), men (50.6 %, 95% CI: 39.4-59.8), and asymptomatic individuals (49.8%, 95% CI: 36.5-60.3) during the widespread SARS-CoV-2 delta variant circulation.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccine-mediated protection drastically declined during the delta-dominant period and in vulnerable groups. This study suggests the requirement for additional countermeasures, such as the administration of a booster vaccine, in vulnerable groups based on age, sex, and symptomatic manifestation.

Long term effectiveness of inactivated vaccine BBIBP-CorV (Vero Cells) against COVID-19 associated severe and critical hospitalization in Morocco

BACKGROUND

We provide national estimates of the real-world Vaccine effectiveness (VE) based on nationally available surveillance data. The study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of the inactivated Covid-19 vaccine BBIBP-CorV (Vero Cells) Sinopharm vaccine currently deployed in Morocco against SARS- CoV-2 severe disease/ hospitalization" within 9 months after vaccination.

METHODS

We conducted a test-negative, case-control study among a population aged 18 years or older who were tested by rt-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 infection from February to October 2021 in Morocco. From the national laboratory COVID-19 database; we identified cases who were rt-PCR positive amongst severe and critical COVID-19 cases and controls who had a negative rt-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2. From the national vaccination register (NVR); individuals vaccinated with COVID-19 Vaccine (Vero Cell) and those unvaccinated were identified and included in the study. The linkage between databases was conducted for the study of Vaccination status based on the timing of the vaccine receipt relative to the SARS-CoV-2 rt-PCR test date. For each person, who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, we identified a propensity score-matched control participant who was tested negative. We estimated vaccine effectiveness against SARS- CoV-2 severe disease/ hospitalization using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 12884 persons who tested positive and 12885 propensity score-matched control participants, the median age was 62 years, 47.2% of whom were female. As a function of time after vaccination of second dose vaccination, vaccine effectiveness during the first month was 88% (95% CI, 84-91), 87% (95% CI: 83-90) during the second and third month, 75% (95% CI: 67-80) during the fourth month, 61% (95% CI: 54-67) during the fifth month, and 64% (95% CI: 59-69) beyond the sixth month. VE remained high and stable during the first three months in the two-age subgroup. In the fourth month, the VE in the older population aged 60 years and above (64%) was reduced by 20 points compared to VE in the younger population (84%).

CONCLUSION

A Sinopharm vaccine is highly protective against serious SARS-CoV-2 infection under real-world conditions. Protection remained high and stable during the first three months following the second dose and decreases slightly beyond the fourth month especially beyond 60 years.

Coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine effectiveness among a population-based cohort of people living with HIV

OBJECTIVE

People with HIV were underrepresented in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine clinical trials. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection for the BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and ChAdOx1 vaccines among a population-based cohort of people with HIV in Ontario, Canada.

DESIGN

Test-negative design.

METHODS

We identified people with HIV aged ≥19 years who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR between December 14, 2020 (first availability of COVID-19 vaccines) and November 21, 2021 (pre-Omicron circulation). Outcomes included any infection, symptomatic infection, and COVID-19-related hospitalization/death. We compared the odds of vaccination between test-positive cases and test-negative controls using multivariable logistic regression with adjustment for age, sex, region, calendar time, SARS-CoV-2 test histories, influenza vaccination, comorbidities, and neighborhood-level socio-economic status. VE was derived as (1 - adjusted odds ratio) × 100%.

RESULTS

Among 21 023 adults living with HIV, there were 801 (8.3%) test-positive cases and 8,879 (91.7%) test-negative controls. 20.1% cases and 47.8% of controls received ≥1 COVID-19 vaccine dose; among two-dose recipients, 93.4% received ≥1 mRNA dose. Two-dose VE ≥7 days before specimen collection was 82% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 74-87%) against any infection, 94% (95% CI = 82-98%) against symptomatic infection, and 97% (95% CI = 85-100%) against hospitalization/death. Against any infection, VE declined from 86% (95% CI = 77-92%) within 7-59 days after the second dose to 66% (95% CI = -15-90%) after ≥180 days; we did not observe evidence of waning protection for other outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Two doses of COVID-19 vaccine offered substantial protection against symptomatic illness and hospitalization/death in people with HIV prior to the emergence of the Omicron variant. Our findings do not support a broad conclusion that COVID-19 VE is lower among people with HIV in populations that, for the most part, are attending HIV care, taking antiretroviral medication, and are virally suppressed.

Complications Following Elective Major Noncardiac Surgery Among Patients With Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection

IMPORTANCE

There is an urgent need for evidence to inform preoperative risk assessment for the millions of people who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection and are awaiting elective surgery, which is critical to surgical care planning and informed consent.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection with death, major adverse cardiovascular events, and rehospitalization after elective major noncardiac surgery.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This population-based cohort study included adults who had received a polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-CoV-2 infection within 6 months prior to elective major noncardiac surgery in Ontario, Canada, between April 2020 and October 2021, with 30 days follow-up.

EXPOSURES

Positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction test result.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was the composite of death, major adverse cardiovascular events, and all-cause rehospitalization within 30 days after surgery.

RESULTS

Of 71 144 patients who underwent elective major noncardiac surgery (median age, 66 years [IQR, 57-73 years]; 59.8% female), 960 had prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (1.3%) and 70 184 had negative test results (98.7%). Prior infection was not associated with the composite risk of death, major adverse cardiovascular events, and rehospitalization within 30 days of elective major noncardiac surgery (5.3% absolute event rate [n = 3770]; 960 patients with a positive test result; adjusted relative risk [aRR], 0.91; 95% CI, 0.68-1.21). There was also no association between prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 and postoperative outcomes when the time between infection and surgery was less than 4 weeks (aRR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.64-2.09) or less than 7 weeks (aRR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.56-1.61) and among those who were previously vaccinated (aRR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.52-1.26).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 was not associated with death, major adverse cardiovascular events, or rehospitalization following elective major noncardiac surgery, although low event rates and wide 95% CIs do not preclude a potentially meaningful increase in overall risk.

Comparison of test-negative and syndrome-negative controls in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness evaluations for preventing COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States

BACKGROUND

Test-negative design (TND) studies have produced validated estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) for influenza vaccine studies. However, syndrome-negative controls have been proposed for differentiating bias and true estimates in VE evaluations for COVID-19. To understand the use of alternative control groups, we compared characteristics and VE estimates of syndrome-negative and test-negative VE controls.

METHODS

Adults hospitalized at 21 medical centers in 18 states March 11-August 31, 2021 were eligible for analysis. Case patients had symptomatic acute respiratory infection (ARI) and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Control groups were test-negative patients with ARI but negative SARS-CoV-2 testing, and syndrome-negative controls were without ARI and negative SARS-CoV-2 testing. Chi square and Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used to detect differences in baseline characteristics. VE against COVID-19 hospitalization was calculated using logistic regression comparing adjusted odds of prior mRNA vaccination between cases hospitalized with COVID-19 and each control group.

RESULTS

5811 adults (2726 cases, 1696 test-negative controls, and 1389 syndrome-negative controls) were included. Control groups differed across characteristics including age, race/ethnicity, employment, previous hospitalizations, medical conditions, and immunosuppression. However, control-group-specific VE estimates were very similar. Among immunocompetent patients aged 18-64 years, VE was 93 % (95 % CI: 90-94) using syndrome-negative controls and 91 % (95 % CI: 88-93) using test-negative controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite demographic and clinical differences between control groups, the use of either control group produced similar VE estimates across age groups and immunosuppression status. These findings support the use of test-negative controls and increase confidence in COVID-19 VE estimates produced by test-negative design studies.

BNT162b2 against COVID-19 in Brazil using a test-negative design: Study protocol and statistical analysis plan

INTRODUCTION

Real-world data on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness are needed to validate evidence from randomized clinical trials. Accordingly, this study aims to evaluate, in a real-world setting in Brazil, the effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 against symptomatic COVID-19 and COVID-19-related complications across diverse populations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A test-negative case-control study with follow-up of cases is currently being conducted in Toledo, a city in southern Brazil, following a mass COVID-19 vaccination campaign with BNT162b2. The study is being conducted among patients aged 12 years or older seeking care in the public health system with acute respiratory symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Cases are RT-PCR positive and controls RT-PCR negative. Test-positive cases are prospectively followed through structured telephone interviews performed at 15 days post-enrollment, and at 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Baseline demographic, clinical, and vaccination data are being collected by means of structured interviews and medical registry records reviews at the time of enrollment. All RT-PCR-positive samples are screened for mutations to identify SARS-CoV-2 variants.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study protocol has been approved by the research ethics committee of all participant sites. Study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.

TRAIL REGISTRATION

Clinicatrials.gov: NCT05052307.

Real-world effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination in older adults: Cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

BACKGROUND

The 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) is recommended for UK older adults, but how age moderates effectiveness is unclear.

METHODS

Three annual cohorts of primary-care patients aged≥65y from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink selected from 2003-5 created a natural experiment (n = 324,804), reflecting the staged introduction of the vaccine. The outcome was symptoms consistent with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia (CAP) requiring antibiotics or hospitalisation. We used the prior event rate ratio (PERR) approach to address bias from unmeasured confounders.

RESULTS

Vaccinated patients had higher rates of CAP in the year before vaccination than their controls, indicating the potential for confounding bias. After adjustment for confounding using the prior event rate ratio (PERR) method, PPV23 was estimated to be effective against CAP for two years after vaccination in all age sub-groups with hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 0.86 (0.80 to 0.93), 0.74 (0.65 to 0.85) and 0.65 (0.57 to 0.74) in patients aged 65-74, 75-79 and 80+ respectively in the 2005 cohort. Age moderated the effect of vaccination with predicted risk reductions of 8% at 65y and 29% at 80y.

CONCLUSIONS

PPV23 is moderately effective at reducing CAP among UK patients aged≥65y, in the two years after vaccination. Vaccine effectiveness is maintained, and may increase, in the oldest age groups in step with increasing susceptibility to CAP.

Vaccine effectiveness of primary series and booster doses against covid-19 associated hospital admissions in the United States: living test negative design study

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of a primary covid-19 vaccine series plus booster doses with a primary series alone for the prevention of hospital admission with omicron related covid-19 in the United States.

DESIGN

Multicenter observational case-control study with a test negative design.

SETTING

Hospitals in 18 US states.

PARTICIPANTS

4760 adults admitted to one of 21 hospitals with acute respiratory symptoms between 26 December 2021 and 30 June 2022, a period when the omicron variant was dominant. Participants included 2385 (50.1%) patients with laboratory confirmed covid-19 (cases) and 2375 (49.9%) patients who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 (controls).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome was vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission with covid-19 for a primary series plus booster doses and a primary series alone by comparing the odds of being vaccinated with each of these regimens versus being unvaccinated among cases versus controls. Vaccine effectiveness analyses were stratified by immunosuppression status (immunocompetent, immunocompromised). The primary analysis evaluated all covid-19 vaccine types combined, and secondary analyses evaluated specific vaccine products.

RESULTS

Overall, median age of participants was 64 years (interquartile range 52-75 years), 994 (20.8%) were immunocompromised, 85 (1.8%) were vaccinated with a primary series plus two boosters, 1367 (28.7%) with a primary series plus one booster, and 1875 (39.3%) with a primary series alone, and 1433 (30.1%) were unvaccinated. Among immunocompetent participants, vaccine effectiveness for prevention of hospital admission with omicron related covid-19 for a primary series plus two boosters was 63% (95% confidence interval 37% to 78%), a primary series plus one booster was 65% (58% to 71%), and for a primary series alone was 37% (25% to 47%) (P<0.001 for the pooled boosted regimens compared with a primary series alone). Vaccine effectiveness was higher for a boosted regimen than for a primary series alone for both mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech): 73% (44% to 87%) for primary series plus two boosters, 64% (55% to 72%) for primary series plus one booster, and 36% (21% to 48%) for primary series alone (P<0.001); mRNA-1273 (Moderna): 68% (17% to 88%) for primary series plus two boosters, 65% (55% to 73%) for primary series plus one booster, and 41% (25% to 54%) for primary series alone (P=0.001)). Among immunocompromised patients, vaccine effectiveness for a primary series plus one booster was 69% (31% to 86%) and for a primary series alone was 49% (30% to 63%) (P=0.04).

CONCLUSION

During the first six months of 2022 in the US, booster doses of a covid-19 vaccine provided additional benefit beyond a primary vaccine series alone for preventing hospital admissions with omicron related covid-19.

READERS' NOTE

This article is a living test negative design study that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication.

Gam-COVID-Vac, EpiVacCorona, and CoviVac effectiveness against lung injury during Delta and Omicron variant surges in St. Petersburg, Russia: a test-negative case-control study

Background

Monitoring vaccine effectiveness (VE) remains a priority for epidemiological research throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. VE against infection declines with the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC), but VE against the severe disease remains high. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines used in Russia against lung injury during Delta and Omicron VOC surges.

Methods

We designed a case–control study (test-negative design) to estimate VE against any (any volume of involved lung parenchyma) and severe (>50% of involved parenchyma) lung injury detected on computer tomography and associated with COVID-19 between October 1, 2021–April 28, 2022 (Delta VOC dominance period followed by Omicron dominance period). We included the data of patients with symptomatic confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection referred to the low-dose computer tomography triage centres.

Results

Among 23996 patients in the primary analysis, 13372 (55.7%) had any lung injury, and 338 (1.4%) had severe lung injury. The adjusted for age, sex and triage centre VE estimates against any lung injury were 56% (95% confidence interval 54–59) for two-dose Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik V), 71% (68–74) for three-dose Gam-COVID-Vac (booster), 2% (−27 to 24) for EpiVacCorona, and 46% (37–53) for CoviVac. VE estimates against severe lung injury were 76% (67–82) for two-dose Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik V), 87% (76–93) for three-dose Gam-COVID-Vac, 36% (−63 to 75) for EpiVacCorona, and 80% (45–92) for CoviVac.

Conclusions

Gam-COVID-Vac remained effective against lung injury associated with COVID-19 during Delta and Omicron VOC surges, and one Gam-COVID-Vac booster could be seen as an appropriate option after a two-dose regimen. CoviVac was also effective against lung injury. EpiVacCorona use in population-based vaccination should be halted until effectiveness and efficacy evidence is provided.

Trial registration The joint study of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness in St. Petersburg was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04981405, date of registration—August 4, 2021).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12931-022-02206-3.

Comment on Chandler et al. 23-Valent Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccination Does Not Prevent Community-Acquired Pneumonia Hospitalizations Due to Vaccine-Type Streptococcus pneumoniae. Microorganisms 2022, 10, 560

The 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) targets 23 common serotypes and is recommended for use in adults in various countries to protect against pneumococcal infection. Test-negative design (TND) studies aim to include cases and controls from the same healthcare facilities; however, design choices or limitations associated with conducting real-world research can affect the study results. Here, we highlight how some methodological limitations may have affected results and conclusions of a published study described by Chandler et al.

Effectiveness of an inactivated Covid-19 vaccine with homologous and heterologous boosters against Omicron in Brazil

The effectiveness of inactivated vaccines (VE) against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 caused by omicron is unknown. We conducted a nationwide, test-negative, case-control study to estimate VE for homologous and heterologous (BNT162b2) booster doses in adults who received two doses of CoronaVac in Brazil in the Omicron context. Analyzing 1,386,544 matched-pairs, VE against symptomatic disease was 8.6% (95% CI, 5.6-11.5) and 56.8% (95% CI, 56.3-57.3) in the period 8-59 days after receiving a homologous and heterologous booster, respectively. During the same interval, VE against severe Covid-19 was 73.6% (95% CI, 63.9-80.7) and 86.0% (95% CI, 84.5-87.4) after receiving a homologous and heterologous booster, respectively. Waning against severe Covid-19 after 120 days was only observed after a homologous booster. Heterologous booster might be preferable to individuals with completed primary series inactivated vaccine.

Live-attenuated influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization in children aged 2-6 years, the first three seasons of the childhood influenza vaccination program in England, 2013/14-2015/16

INTRODUCTION

In 2013, the United Kingdom began to roll-out a universal annual influenza vaccination program for children. An important component of any new vaccination program is measuring its effectiveness. Live-attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIVs) have since shown mixed results with vaccine effectiveness (VE) varying across seasons and countries elsewhere. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in children against severe disease during the first three seasons of the LAIV program in England.

METHODS

Using the screening method, LAIV vaccination coverage in children hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza infection was compared with vaccination coverage in 2-6-year-olds in the general population to estimate VE in 2013/14-2015/16.

RESULTS

The overall LAIV VE, adjusted for age group, week/month and geographical area, for all influenza types pooled over the three influenza seasons was 50.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 31.2, 63.8). By age, there was evidence of protection against hospitalization from influenza vaccination in both the pre-school (2-4-year-olds) (48.1%, 95% CI 27.2, 63.1) and school-aged children (5-6-year-olds) (62.6%, 95% CI 2.6, 85.6) over the three seasons.

CONCLUSION

LAIV vaccination in children provided moderate annual protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalization in England over the three influenza seasons. This study contributes further to the limited literature to date on influenza VE against severe disease in children.

Association of Influenza Vaccination With SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Associated Hospitalization and Mortality Among Patients Aged 66 Years or Older

Importance

Vaccine effectiveness studies have rarely implemented strategies to reduce the healthy vaccinee bias arising from differences in health care-seeking behavior between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Although previous observational studies suggest that influenza vaccination is associated with a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2-associated outcomes, the healthy vaccinee bias may have led to overestimating the vaccination effect.

Objective

To estimate the association between influenza vaccination and SARS-CoV-2-associated outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study was conducted over 2 consecutive influenza vaccination campaigns (2019-2020 and 2020-2021), owing to the substantial COVID-19 burden and the greater validity of influenza vaccination data in the studied age group. The study population included community-dwelling adults aged 66 years or older in Ontario, Canada.

Exposure

Influenza vaccination for a given season.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The outcomes of interest included SARS-CoV-2 infection, SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalization, SARS-CoV-2-associated death, and a composite of SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalization or death. Cox proportional hazards models were used to measure the association between influenza vaccination and SARS-CoV-2-associated outcomes, censoring individuals who moved into long-term care, received COVID-19 vaccines, or died before the observation period end date. Primary care periodic health examinations (PHEs) were explored as a negative tracer exposure (ie, no association expected with SARS-CoV-2 outcomes) and as an effect modifier of the association between influenza vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 outcomes.

Results

Of 2 922 449 individuals aged 66 years or older (54.2% female) living in Ontario, 2 279 805 were included in the study. Among these, 1 234 647 (54.2%) were female and 1 045 158 (45.8%) were male; their mean (SD) age was 75.08 (7.21) years. Those who had received influenza vaccination exhibited a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection than unvaccinated individuals for the 2019-2020 cohort (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR], 0.78; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84) and the 2020-2021 cohort (aHR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.74-0.78). This association was also observed for SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalization or death (2019-2020: aHR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74-0.92; 2020-2021: aHR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.63-0.70). Similarly, undergoing a PHE was also associated with a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection (aHR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.78-0.91) and SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalization or death (aHR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.70-0.90), and modified the association between influenza vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection for vaccinated individuals who underwent PHE (aHR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.52-0.74) and for vaccinated individuals who did not undergo PHE (aHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.76-0.87), and also SARS-CoV-2-associated hospitalization or death in vaccinated individuals who underwent PHE (aHR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.49-0.88) and vaccinated individuals who did not undergo PHE (aHR, 0.85, 95% CI, 0.76-0.95).

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this cohort study suggest that undergoing a PHE may at least partially modify the association between influenza vaccination and SARS-CoV-2-associated outcomes in individuals aged 66 years or older, providing evidence of the healthy vaccinee bias that may affect vaccine effectiveness studies.

Real-World Effectiveness of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) mRNA Vaccines in Preventing Confirmed Infection in Patients on Chronic Hemodialysis

BACKGROUND

Persons on chronic hemodialysis have a significantly diminished humoral immune response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Whether this translates to reduced vaccine effectiveness (VE) is unknown.

METHODS

We used the US Department of Veterans Affairs COVID-19 Shared Data Resource to identify all veterans who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between 26 January and 31 August 2021. Using International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition, codes and attendance at a dialysis clinic/center, we identified those who were on chronic hemodialysis. We used a test-negative, case-control design using a doubly robust logistic regression model to determine the VE of the BNT-162b2 (Pfizer) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccines in preventing confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RESULTS

Among 847 199 veterans tested for SARS-CoV-2 between 26 January and 31 August 2021, there were 6076 veterans on chronic hemodialysis. Among those, we identified 1270 cases (580 fully vaccinated) and 2959 controls (2120 fully vaccinated). The overall VE >14 days after the second dose in preventing documented infection was 68.2% (95% CI: 62.6-72.9%). VE was 68.9% (95% CI: 61.9-74.7%) for Pfizer BNT-162b2 and 66.7% (95% CI: 58.9-73.0%) for Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine. There was no difference in VE by age (<70 vs >70 years), race, or sex. There were no events recorded in persons with a Charlson's comorbidity index score <2.

CONCLUSIONS

VE of 2 doses of current mRNA vaccines in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in persons on chronic hemodialysis is lower than historic VE rates in the general population. Effects of additional doses in improving VE in this special population need further study.

SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and breakthrough infections in the Virus Watch cohort

A range of studies globally demonstrate that the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines wane over time, but the total effect of anti-S antibody levels on risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and whether this varies by vaccine type is not well understood. Here we show that anti-S levels peak three to four weeks following the second dose of vaccine and the geometric mean of the samples is nine fold higher for BNT162b2 than ChAdOx1. Increasing anti-S levels are associated with a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (Hazard Ratio 0.85; 95%CIs: 0.79-0.92). We do not find evidence that this antibody relationship with risk of infection varies by second dose vaccine type (BNT162b2 vs. ChAdOx1). In keeping with our anti-S antibody data, we find that people vaccinated with ChAdOx1 had 1.64 times the odds (95% confidence interval 1.45-1.85) of a breakthrough infection compared to BNT162b2. We anticipate our findings to be useful in the estimation of the protective effect of anti-S levels on risk of infection due to Delta. Our findings provide evidence about the relationship between antibody levels and protection for different vaccines and will support decisions on optimising the timing of booster vaccinations and identifying individuals who should be prioritised for booster vaccination, including those who are older, clinically extremely vulnerable, or received ChAdOx1 as their primary course. Our finding that risk of infection by anti-S level does not interact with vaccine type, but that individuals vaccinated with ChAdOx1 were at higher risk of infection, provides additional support for the use of using anti-S levels for estimating vaccine efficacy.

On Measuring Vaccine Effectiveness with Observational Study Designs

Herein, we present a bird's eye view of common observational study designs utilized for measurement of vaccine effectiveness. Assessing vaccines effectiveness is an integral part of vaccine research, particularly for the newly developed vaccines. A cohort study is prospective, directing from an exposure to one or more outcomes. The design is the best method to ascertain the attack rate of an infectious disease. A traditional case-control study is retrospective, directing from a given outcome to one or more exposures. The design cannot provide the relative risk, but it can provide the odds ratio, which is a good estimation of the relative risk when the attack rate is low. Critically depending on laboratory test results and performance, the test-negative case-control study design is another type of observational study commonly used nowadays for the evaluation of the vaccine effectiveness. Comparing to cohort and traditional case-control designs, conducting a test-negative case-control study is relatively cheaper and faster. Herein, we describe each of the above-mentioned study designs through examples generated by a Monte-Carlo simulation program assuming real-world conditions. CONCLUSION: The simulation shows that regardless of the study design employed, the diagnostic test specificity is of utmost importance in providing a valid estimate of the vaccine effectiveness.

Effectiveness of trivalent influenza vaccines against hospitalizations due to laboratory-confirmed influenza a in the elderly: Comparison of test-negative design with register-based designs

INTRODUCTION

Measuring influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) seasonally is important and has been conducted utilizing several observational study designs. The active test-negative design has been most widely used and the validity of passive register-based studies has been debated. We aimed to explore the potential differences, advantages, and weaknesses of different study designs in estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness.

METHODS

We compared three study designs in estimating IVE against hospitalization in the elderly aged 65 years or more over three influenza seasons 2015/16, 2016/17 and 2017/18. Designs compared were active test-negative design (TND), register-based cohort design and register-based case-control design with different selection criteria for cases and controls.

RESULTS

Adjusted IVE estimates for the three consecutive seasons 2015-18 in active test-negative design were 82% (95% confidence interval 26, 96), 21% (-179, 77), 15% (-113, 66). For case-control design, estimates from different analyses ranged in 2015/16 from 47% (-16, 76) to 52% (-48, 84), in 2016/17 from 10% (-42, 43) to 29% (-20, 58), and in 2017/18 from -27% (-91, 15) to 1% (-40, 30). In the cohort design, the adjusted IVE estimates were 48% (-9, 75), 29% (1, 49), 13% (-21, 37) for the three seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

The register-based cohort design produced results more concordant with the active test-negative design than the case-control design. Furthermore, the register-based cohort design yielded most precise estimates with narrower confidence intervals. In Finland with the availability of near real-time nationwide register data, the register-based cohort design is the method of choice to continue the annual surveillance of influenza vaccine effectiveness.

Waning effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 covid-19 vaccines over six months since second dose: OpenSAFELY cohort study using linked electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

To estimate waning of covid-19 vaccine effectiveness over six months after second dose.

DESIGN

Cohort study, approved by NHS England.

SETTING

Linked primary care, hospital, and covid-19 records within the OpenSAFELY-TPP database.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were eligible, excluding care home residents and healthcare professionals.

EXPOSURES

People who had received two doses of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 (administered during the national vaccine rollout) were compared with unvaccinated people during six consecutive comparison periods, each of four weeks.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Adjusted hazard ratios for covid-19 related hospital admission, covid-19 related death, positive SARS-CoV-2 test, and non-covid-19 related death comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated people. Waning vaccine effectiveness was quantified as ratios of adjusted hazard ratios per four week period, separately for subgroups aged ≥65 years, 18-64 years and clinically vulnerable, 40-64 years, and 18-39 years.

RESULTS

1 951 866 and 3 219 349 eligible adults received two doses of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1, respectively, and 2 422 980 remained unvaccinated. Waning of vaccine effectiveness was estimated to be similar across outcomes and vaccine brands. In the ≥65 years subgroup, ratios of adjusted hazard ratios for covid-19 related hospital admission, covid-19 related death, and positive SARS-CoV-2 test ranged from 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.14 to 1.24)to 1.34 (1.09 to 1.64) per four weeks. Despite waning vaccine effectiveness, rates of covid-19 related hospital admission and death were substantially lower among vaccinated than unvaccinated adults up to 26 weeks after the second dose, with estimated vaccine effectiveness ≥80% for BNT162b2, and ≥75% for ChAdOx1. By weeks 23-26, rates of positive SARS-CoV-2 test in vaccinated people were similar to or higher than in unvaccinated people (adjusted hazard ratios up to 1.72 (1.11 to 2.68) for BNT162b2 and 1.86 (1.79 to 1.93) for ChAdOx1).

CONCLUSIONS

The rate at which estimated vaccine effectiveness waned was consistent for covid-19 related hospital admission, covid-19 related death, and positive SARS-CoV-2 test and was similar across subgroups defined by age and clinical vulnerability. If sustained to outcomes of infection with the omicron variant and to booster vaccination, these findings will facilitate scheduling of booster vaccination.

Use of Recently Vaccinated Individuals to Detect Bias in Test-Negative Case-Control Studies of COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness

Postauthorization observational studies play a key role in understanding COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness following the demonstration of efficacy in clinical trials. Although bias due to confounding, selection bias, and misclassification can be mitigated through careful study design, unmeasured confounding is likely to remain in these observational studies. Phase III trials of COVID-19 vaccines have shown that protection from vaccination does not occur immediately, meaning that COVID-19 risk should be similar in recently vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, in the absence of confounding or other bias. Several studies have used the estimated effectiveness among recently vaccinated individuals as a negative control exposure to detect bias in vaccine effectiveness estimates. In this paper, we introduce a theoretical framework to describe the interpretation of such a bias indicator in test-negative studies, and outline strong assumptions that would allow vaccine effectiveness among recently vaccinated individuals to serve as a negative control exposure.

Seasonal influenza vaccination expands hemagglutinin-specific antibody breadth to older and future A/H3N2 viruses

History of influenza A/H3N2 exposure, especially childhood infection, shape antibody responses after influenza vaccination and infection, but have not been extensively studied. We investigated the breadth and durability of influenza A/H3N2-specific hemagglutinin-inhibition antibodies after live-attenuated influenza vaccine in children (aged 3-17 years, n = 42), and after inactivated influenza vaccine or infection in adults (aged 22-61 years, n = 42) using 14 antigenically distinct A/H3N2 viruses circulating from 1968 to 2018. We found that vaccination and infection elicited cross-reactive antibody responses, predominantly directed against newer or future strains. Childhood H3-priming increased the breadth and magnitude of back-boosted A/H3N2-specific antibodies in adults. Broader and more durable A/H3N2-specific antibodies were observed in repeatedly vaccinated adults than in children and previously unvaccinated adults. Our findings suggest that early A/H3N2 exposure and frequent seasonal vaccination could increase the breadth and seropositivity of antibody responses, which may improve vaccine protection against future viruses.

Change in covid-19 risk over time following vaccination with CoronaVac: test negative case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the change in odds of covid-19 over time following primary series completion of the inactivated whole virus vaccine CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech) in São Paulo State, Brazil.

DESIGN

Test negative case-control study.

SETTING

Community testing for covid-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged ≥18 years who were residents of São Paulo state, had received two doses of CoronaVac, did not have a laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection before vaccination, and underwent reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 from 17 January to 14 December 2021. Cases were matched to test negative controls by age (in 5 year bands), municipality of residence, healthcare worker status, and epidemiological week of RT-PCR test.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic covid-19 and associated hospital admissions and deaths. Conditional logistic regression was adjusted for sex, number of covid-19 associated comorbidities, race, and previous acute respiratory illness.

RESULTS

From 202 741 eligible people, 52 170 cases with symptomatic covid-19 and 69 115 test negative controls with covid-19 symptoms were formed into 43 257 matched sets. Adjusted odds ratios of symptomatic covid-19 increased with time since completion of the vaccination series. The increase in odds was greater in younger people and among healthcare workers, although sensitivity analyses suggested that this was in part due to bias. In addition, the adjusted odds ratios of covid-19 related hospital admission or death significantly increased with time compared with the odds 14-41 days after series completion: from 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.51) at 70-97 days up to 1.94 (1.41 to 2.67) from 182 days onwards.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant increases in the risk of moderate and severe covid-19 outcomes occurred three months after primary vaccination with CoronaVac among people aged 65 and older. These findings provide supportive evidence for the implementation of vaccine boosters in these populations who received this inactivated vaccine. Studies of waning should include analyses designed to uncover common biases.

A comparison of the test-negative and the matched case-control study designs for estimation of EV71 vaccine immunological surrogate endpoints from a randomized controlled trial

Since TND could be an appropriate method to assess vaccine effectiveness, we want to know whether it may be used for the estimation of vaccine immunological surrogate endpoints, like case-control study. We conducted two study designs (test-negative design (TND) VS matched case-control design (MCC)) to evaluate immunological surrogate endpoint against EV71-associated diseases. We calculated sensitivity (proportion of participants with EV71-associated disease who have a titer less than the cutoff at day 56), specificity (proportion of matched controls who have a titer equal or greater than the cutoff at day 56), and corresponding Youden index ([sensitivity + specificity] − 1). Then, we compared them between TND and MCC. In test-negative design, we totally enrolled 7029 subjects, 49 tested positive as cases and 6980 tested negative as controls in per-protocol population. In matched case-control design, we totally enrolled 305 subjects, 51 as cases, and 254 as controls in whole cohort. In sensitivity and specificity comparison, TND and MCC’s results were similar to each other, except for a titer of 1:4. Nonetheless, in Youden index comparison, MCC’s results were slightly higher than the TND’s, except for a titer of 1:4. EV71 vaccine immunological surrogate endpoints derived from TND was similar to MCC’s. Our results supported that TND could become an alternative research design with the progress of surveillance.

Breakthrough infections after COVID-19 vaccination: Insights, perspectives and challenges

Vaccination programs against SARS-CoV-2 constitute the mainstay of public health interventions against the global COVID-19 pandemic. Currently available vaccines have shown 90% or better rates of protection against severe disease and mortality. Barely a year after vaccines became available, the Omicron variant and its unprecedented speed of transmission has posed a new challenge. Overall, Omicron presents increased immune escape, transmissibility, and decreased pathogenicity. Vaccines do not offer a full protection against SARS-CoV-2 acquisition, since "breakthrough" infections may occur in fully vaccinated individuals, who may in turn spread the virus to others. Breakthrough infections may be causally related to the viral profile (viral variant and load, incubation period, transmissibility, pathogenicity, immune evasion), immunity characteristics (mucosal versus systemic immunity, duration of immunity, etc.), host determinants (age, comorbidities, immune status, immunosuppressive drugs) and vaccination properties (platform, antigen dose, dose number, dose interval, route of administration). Determining the rate of breakthrough infections may be challenging and necessitates the conduction of population-based studies regarding vaccine effectiveness as well as neutralizing antibody testing, a surrogate of immune protection. In this review, we analyze the causes of breakthrough infections, their clinical consequences (severity of infection and transmission), methods of determining their incidence as well as challenges and perspectives. Long COVID as well as multi-inflammatory syndrome in adolescents may be significantly reduced in breakthrough infections. The need for universal pancoranavirus vaccines that would aim at protecting against a plethora of SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as emerging variants is discussed. Finally, novel vaccine strategies, such as nasal vaccines, may confer robust mucosal and systemic protection, reducing efficiently transmission.

Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe outcomes among individuals with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases tested between March 1 and Nov 22, 2021, in Ontario, Canada: a population-based analysis

Background

We estimated COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes among individuals with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases in Ontario, Canada.

Methods

In this population-based analysis, we used a test-negative design across four immune-mediated inflammatory disease population-based cohorts, comprising individuals with rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, psoriasis, and inflammatory bowel disease. We identified all SARS-CoV-2 tests done in these populations between March 1 and Nov 22, 2021 (a period in which there was rapid uptake of vaccines, and the alpha [B.1.1.7] and delta [B.1.617.2] SARS-CoV-2 variants were predominantly circulating in Canada) and separately assessed outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes (hospitalisation due to COVID-19 and death due to COVID-19) for each disease group. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate the effectiveness of one, two, and three doses of mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech], or mRNA-1273 [Moderna]) among individuals at the time of SARS-CoV-2 testing.

Findings

Between March 1 and Nov 22, 2021, we identified 2127 (5·9%) test-positive cases among 36 145 individuals (26 476 [73·2%] were female and 9669 [26·8%] were male) with rheumatoid arthritis tested, 476 (6·1%) test-positive cases among 7863 individuals (4130 [52·5%] were female and 3733 [47·5%] were male) with ankylosing spondylitis tested, 3089 (6·5%) test-positive cases among 47 199 individuals (26 062 [55·2%] were female and 21 137 [44·8%] were male) with psoriasis tested, and 1702 (5·4%) test-positive cases among 31 311 individuals (17 716 [56·6%] were female and 13 595 [43·4%] were male) with inflammatory bowel disease tested. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness of two doses against infection was 83% (95% CI 80-86) in those with rheumatoid arthritis, 89% (83-93) among those with ankylosing spondylitis, 84% (81-86) among those with psoriasis, and 79% (74-82) among those with inflammatory bowel disease. After two vaccine doses, effectiveness against infection generally peaked 31-60 days after vaccination and waned gradually with each additional month. Vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes after two doses was 92% (95% CI 88-95) in those with rheumatoid arthritis, 97% (83-99) among those with ankylosing spondylitis, 92% (86-95) among those with psoriasis, and 94% (88-97) among those with inflammatory bowel disease. Vaccine effectiveness after a third dose against infection was similar to or higher than after the second dose (ranging from 76% [47-89] to 96% [72-99]), although due to a paucity of events, estimates could not be calculated for some subgroups for severe outcomes.

Interpretation

Two vaccine doses were found to be highly effective against both SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 outcomes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, psoriasis, and inflammatory bowel disease during the study period. Research is needed to determine the durability of effectiveness of three doses over time, particularly against emerging variants.

Funding

Public Health Agency of Canada.

Short term, relative effectiveness of four doses versus three doses of BNT162b2 vaccine in people aged 60 years and older in Israel: retrospective, test negative, case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the relative effectiveness of a fourth dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA (BNT162b2) vaccine compared with three vaccine doses over the span of 10 weeks.

DESIGN

Retrospective, test negative, case-control study, with a matched analysis and an unmatched multiple tests analysis.

SETTING

Nationally centralised database of Maccabi Healthcare Services, an Israeli national health fund for 2.5 million people; from 10 January 2022 (seven days after the fourth dose was first given to eligible individuals) to 13 March 2022, an omicron dominant period in Israel.

PARTICIPANTS

97 499 Maccabi Healthcare Services members aged 60 years and older, who were eligible to receive a fourth vaccine dose and obtained at least one polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test during the study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as a positive PCR test performed seven or more days after inoculation with the BNT162b2 vaccine; and breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection resulting in severe covid-19 disease, defined as hospital admission or death related to covid-19.

RESULTS

27 876 participants received the fourth BNT162b2 vaccine dose and 69 623 received three doses only. Of 106 participants who died during the follow-up period, 77 had had their third doses only and 23 had had their fourth doses during the first three weeks after inoculation. In the first three weeks, a fourth dose provided additional protection against both SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease relative to three doses of the vaccine. However, relative vaccine effectiveness against infection quickly decreased over time, peaking during the third week at 65.1% (95% confidence interval 63.0% to 67.1%) and falling to 22.0% (4.9% to 36.1%) by the end of the 10 week follow-up period. Unlike relative effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection, the relative effectiveness of a fourth dose against severe covid-19 was maintained at a high level (>72%) throughout follow-up. However, severe disease was a relatively rare event, occurring in <1% of study participants who received four doses or three doses only.

CONCLUSIONS

A fourth dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine appears to have provided additional protection against both SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe covid-19 disease relative to three vaccine doses. However, relative effectiveness of the fourth dose against infection appears to wane sooner than that of the third dose.

Estimands and Estimation of COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Under the Test-Negative Design: Connections to Causal Inference

The test-negative design is routinely used for the monitoring of seasonal flu vaccine effectiveness. More recently, it has become integral to the estimation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, in particular for more severe disease outcomes. Because the design has many important advantages and is becoming a mainstay for monitoring postlicensure vaccine effectiveness, epidemiologists and biostatisticians may be interested in further understanding the effect measures being estimated in these studies and connections to causal effects. Logistic regression is typically applied to estimate the conditional risk ratio but relies on correct outcome model specification and may be biased in the presence of effect modification by a confounder. We give and justify an inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) estimator for the marginal risk ratio, which is valid under effect modification. We use causal directed acyclic graphs, and counterfactual arguments under assumptions about no interference and partial interference to illustrate the connection between these statistical estimands and causal quantities. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate and confirm our derivations and to evaluate the performance of the estimators. We find that if the effectiveness of the vaccine varies across patient subgroups, the logistic regression can lead to misleading estimates, but the IPTW estimator can produce unbiased estimates. We also find that in the presence of partial interference both estimators can produce misleading estimates.

Estimation of Relative Vaccine Effectiveness in Influenza: A Systematic Review of Methodology

BACKGROUND

When new vaccine components or platforms are developed, they will typically need to demonstrate noninferiority or superiority over existing products, resulting in the assessment of relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE). This review aims to identify how rVE evaluation is being performed in studies of influenza to inform a more standardized approach.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science for studies reporting rVE comparing vaccine components, dose, or vaccination schedules. We screened titles, abstracts, full texts, and references to identify relevant articles. We extracted information on the study design, relative comparison made, and the definition and statistical approach used to estimate rVE in each study.

RESULTS

We identified 63 articles assessing rVE in influenza virus. Studies compared multiple vaccine components (n = 38), two or more doses of the same vaccine (n = 17), or vaccination timing or history (n = 9). One study compared a range of vaccine components and doses. Nearly two-thirds of all studies controlled for age, and nearly half for comorbidities, region, and sex. Assessment of 12 studies presenting both absolute and relative effect estimates suggested proportionality in the effects, resulting in implications for the interpretation of rVE effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Approaches to rVE evaluation in practice is highly varied, with improvements in reporting required in many cases. Extensive consideration of methodologic issues relating to rVE is needed, including the stability of estimates and the impact of confounding structure on the validity of rVE estimates.

Third dose vaccination with mRNA-1273 or BNT162b2 vaccines improves protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection

As of 2021 November 29, booster vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection has been recommended for all individuals aged 18 years and older in the United States. A key reason for this recommendation is the expectation that a booster vaccine dose can alleviate observed waning of vaccine effectiveness (VE). Although initial reports of booster effectiveness have been positive, the level of protection from booster vaccination is unclear. We conducted two studies to assess the impact of booster vaccination, with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273, on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection between August and December 2021. We first compared SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence in cohorts of 3-dose vaccine recipients to incidence in matched cohorts of 2-dose vaccine recipients (cohort size = 24,539 for BNT162b2 and 14,004 for mRNA-1273). Additionally, we applied a test-negative study design to compare the level of protection against symptomatic infection in 3-dose recipients to that observed in recent 2-dose primary vaccine series recipients. The 3-dose recipients experienced a significantly lower incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection than the matched 2-dose cohorts (BNT162b2 Incidence Rate Ratio: 0.11, 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.13 and mRNA-1273 IRR: 0.11, 95% CI: 0.08 to 0.15). Results from the test-negative study showed the third vaccine dose mitigated waning of VE, with the risk of symptomatic infection in 3-dose recipients being comparable to that observed 7 to 73 days after the primary vaccine series. These results show that 3-dose vaccine regimens with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 are effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection and support the widespread administration of booster vaccine doses.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in the General Population of an Italian Region before and during the Omicron Wave

We performed a cohort analysis of the entire population of Abruzzo, Italy, to evaluate the real-world effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against infection, COVID-19 hospitalization or death, over time and during the Omicron wave. All resident or domiciled subjects were included, and official vaccination, COVID-19, demographic, hospital and co-pay exemption datasets were extracted up to 18 February 2022. Multivariable analyses were adjusted for age, gender, hypertension, diabetes, major cardio- and cerebrovascular events, COPD, kidney diseases, and cancer. During the follow-up (average 244 days), 252,365 subjects received three vaccine doses (of BNT162b2, ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, mRNA-1273 or JNJ-78436735), 684,860 two doses, 29,401 one dose, and 313,068 no dose. Overall, 13.4% of the individuals were infected with SARS-CoV-2 (n = 170,761); 1.1% of them had severe COVID-19, and 0.6% died. Compared with the unvaccinated, those receiving two or three vaccine doses showed an 80% to 90% lower risk of COVID-19 hospitalization or death. Protection decreased during the Omicron wave and six months after the last dose, but it remained substantial. Lethal disease was uncommon during the Omicron wave and in the young population, even among the unvaccinated. Some of the current policies may need a re-evaluation in light of these findings. The results from the Omicron wave will inevitably require confirmation.

Identifying and Alleviating Bias Due to Differential Depletion of Susceptible People in Postmarketing Evaluations of COVID-19 Vaccines

Recent studies have provided key information about SARS-CoV-2 vaccines' efficacy and effectiveness (VE). One important question that remains is whether the protection conferred by vaccines wanes over time. However, estimates over time are subject to bias from differential depletion of susceptible individuals between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. We examined the extent to which biases occur under different scenarios and assessed whether serological testing has the potential to correct this bias. By identifying nonvaccine antibodies, these tests could identify individuals with prior infection. We found that in scenarios with high baseline VE, differential depletion of susceptible individuals created minimal bias in VE estimates, suggesting that any observed declines are likely not due to spurious waning alone. However, if baseline VE was lower, the bias for leaky vaccines (which reduce individual probability of infection given contact) was larger and should be corrected for by excluding individuals with past infection if the mechanism is known to be leaky. Conducting analyses both unadjusted and adjusted for past infection could give lower and upper bounds for the true VE. Studies of VE should therefore enroll individuals regardless of prior infection history but also collect information, ideally through serological testing, on this critical variable.

Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines for reducing susceptibility to infection with the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of SARS-CoV-2

Background

From January to May 2021 the alpha variant (B.1.1.7) of SARS-CoV-2 was the most commonly detected variant in the UK. Following this, the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) then became the predominant variant. The UK COVID-19 vaccination programme started on 8th December 2020. Prior to the Delta variant, most vaccine effectiveness studies focused on the alpha variant. We therefore aimed to estimate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines in preventing symptomatic and asymptomatic infection with respect to the Delta variant in a UK setting.

Methods

We used anonymised public health record data linked to infection data (PCR) using the Combined Intelligence for Population Health Action resource. We then constructed an SIR epidemic model to explain SARS-CoV-2 infection data across the Cheshire and Merseyside region of the UK. Vaccines were assumed to be effective after 21 days for 1 dose and 14 days for 2 doses.

Results

We determined that the effectiveness of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in reducing susceptibility to infection is 39% (95% credible interval [34, 43]) and 64% (95% credible interval [61, 67]) for a single dose and a double dose respectively. For the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the effectiveness is 20% (95% credible interval [10, 28]) and 84% (95% credible interval [82, 86]) for a single-dose and a double dose respectively.

Conclusion

Vaccine effectiveness for reducing susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection shows noticeable improvement after receiving two doses of either vaccine. Findings also suggest that a full course of the Pfizer-BioNTech provides the optimal protection against infection with the Delta variant. This reinforces the need to complete the full course programme to maximise individual protection and reduce transmission.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07239-z.

Clinical severity of, and effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against, covid-19 from omicron, delta, and alpha SARS-CoV-2 variants in the United States: prospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

To characterize the clinical severity of covid-19 associated with the alpha, delta, and omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants among adults admitted to hospital and to compare the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines to prevent hospital admissions related to each variant.

DESIGN

Case-control study.

SETTING

21 hospitals across the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

11 690 adults (≥18 years) admitted to hospital: 5728 with covid-19 (cases) and 5962 without covid-19 (controls). Patients were classified into SARS-CoV-2 variant groups based on viral whole genome sequencing, and, if sequencing did not reveal a lineage, by the predominant circulating variant at the time of hospital admission: alpha (11 March to 3 July 2021), delta (4 July to 25 December 2021), and omicron (26 December 2021 to 14 January 2022).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Vaccine effectiveness calculated using a test negative design for mRNA vaccines to prevent covid-19 related hospital admissions by each variant (alpha, delta, omicron). Among patients admitted to hospital with covid-19, disease severity on the World Health Organization's clinical progression scale was compared among variants using proportional odds regression.

RESULTS

Effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines to prevent covid-19 associated hospital admissions was 85% (95% confidence interval 82% to 88%) for two vaccine doses against the alpha variant, 85% (83% to 87%) for two doses against the delta variant, 94% (92% to 95%) for three doses against the delta variant, 65% (51% to 75%) for two doses against the omicron variant; and 86% (77% to 91%) for three doses against the omicron variant. In-hospital mortality was 7.6% (81/1060) for alpha, 12.2% (461/3788) for delta, and 7.1% (40/565) for omicron. Among unvaccinated patients with covid-19 admitted to hospital, severity on the WHO clinical progression scale was higher for the delta versus alpha variant (adjusted proportional odds ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.46), and lower for the omicron versus delta variant (0.61, 0.49 to 0.77). Compared with unvaccinated patients, severity was lower for vaccinated patients for each variant, including alpha (adjusted proportional odds ratio 0.33, 0.23 to 0.49), delta (0.44, 0.37 to 0.51), and omicron (0.61, 0.44 to 0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

mRNA vaccines were found to be highly effective in preventing covid-19 associated hospital admissions related to the alpha, delta, and omicron variants, but three vaccine doses were required to achieve protection against omicron similar to the protection that two doses provided against the delta and alpha variants. Among adults admitted to hospital with covid-19, the omicron variant was associated with less severe disease than the delta variant but still resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality. Vaccinated patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 had significantly lower disease severity than unvaccinated patients for all the variants.

Durability of the Single-Dose Ad26.COV2.S Vaccine in the Prevention of COVID-19 Infections and Hospitalizations in the US Before and During the Delta Variant Surge

IMPORTANCE

Vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 virus is critical to control the pandemic. Randomized clinical trials demonstrated efficacy of the single-dose Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine, but data on longer-term protection in clinical practice and effectiveness against variants are needed.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between receiving the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine and COVID-19-related infections and hospitalizations before and during the Delta variant surge.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study included adults aged 18 years and older who were newly Ad26.COV2.S-vaccinated matched to as many as 10 unvaccinated individuals by date, location, age, sex, and comorbidity index. This was followed by 1:4 propensity score matching on COVID-19 risk factors. Data were collected from US insurance claims data from March 1, 2020, through August 31, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Vaccination with Ad26.COV2.S vs no vaccination.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated for recorded COVID-19 infection and COVID-19-related hospitalization, nationwide and in subgroups by age, high-risk factors, calendar time, and states with high incidences of the Delta variant. VE estimates were corrected for underrecording of vaccinations in insurance data.

RESULTS

Among 422 034 vaccinated individuals (mean [SD] age, 54.7 [17.4] years; 236 437 [56.0%] women) and 1 645 397 matched unvaccinated individuals (mean [SD] age, 54.5 [17.5] years; 922 937 [56.1%] women), VE was 76% (95% CI, 75%-77%) for COVID-19 infections and 81% (95% CI, 78%-82%) for COVID-19-related hospitalizations. VE was stable for at least 180 days after vaccination and over calendar time. Among states with high Delta variant incidence, VE during June to August 2021 was 74% (95% CI, 71%-77%) for infections and 81% (95% CI, 75%-86%) for hospitalizations. VE for COVID-19 was higher in individuals younger than 65 years (78%; 95% CI, 77%-79%) and lower in immunocompromised patients (64%; 95% CI, 59%-68%). All estimates were corrected for vaccination underrecording; uncorrected VE, which served as a lower bound, was 66% (95% CI, 64%-67%) for any recorded COVID-19 infection and 72% (95% CI, 69%-74%) for COVID-19-related hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study in US clinical practice showed stable VE of Ad26.COV2.S for at least 6 months before as well as during the time the Delta variant emerged and became dominant.

Association between vaccination status, symptom identification and healthcare use: Implications for test negative design observational studies

AIM

To test the internal validity of the test-negative design (TND) by investigating associations between maternal influenza vaccination, and new virus detection episodes (VDEs), acute respiratory illness, and healthcare visits in their children.

METHODS

Eighty-five children from a birth cohort provided daily symptoms, weekly nasal swabs, and healthcare use data until age 2-years. Effect estimates are summarised as incidence rate ratios (IRR).

RESULTS

There was no association between maternal vaccination and VDEs in children (IRR = 1.1; 95 %CI = 0.9-1.2). Influenza-vaccinated mothers were more likely than unvaccinated mothers to both report, and seek healthcare for, acute lower respiratory illness in their children, IRR = 2.4; 95 %CI = 1.2-4.8 and IRR = 2.2; 95 %CI = 1.1-4.3, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A key assumption of the TND, that healthcare seeking behaviour for conditions of the same severity is not associated with vaccine receipt, did not hold. Further studies of the performance of the TND in different populations are required to confirm its validity.

Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant is highly transmissible with potential immune escape. We conducted a test-negative case–control study to evaluate mRNA-1273 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection and hospitalization with Omicron or Delta. The large, diverse study population included 26,683 SARS-CoV-2 test-positive cases with variants determined by S gene target failure status (16% Delta and 84% Omicron). The two-dose VE against Omicron infection at 14–90 days was 44.0% (95% confidence interval, 35.1–51.6%) but declined quickly. The three-dose VE was 93.7% (92.2–94.9%) and 86.0% (78.1–91.1%) against Delta infection and 71.6% (69.7–73.4%) and 47.4% (40.5–53.5%) against Omicron infection at 14–60 days and >60 days, respectively. The three-dose VE was 29.4% (0.3–50.0%) against Omicron infection in immunocompromised individuals. The three-dose VE against hospitalization with Delta or Omicron was >99% across the entire study population. Our findings demonstrate high, durable three-dose VE against Delta infection but lower effectiveness against Omicron infection, particularly among immunocompromised people. However, three-dose VE of mRNA-1273 was high against hospitalization with Delta and Omicron variants.

A test-negative case–control analysis using data from a diverse population in California, USA, demonstrates that vaccine efficacy of a three-dose regimen of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine is reduced against infection with the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in comparison to Delta, but that efficacy against hospitalization remained high for both variants.

Association Between 3 Doses of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine and Symptomatic Infection Caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta Variants

IMPORTANCE

Assessing COVID-19 vaccine performance against the rapidly spreading SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is critical to inform public health guidance.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the association between receipt of 3 doses of Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 or Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, stratified by variant (Omicron and Delta).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A test-negative case-control analysis among adults 18 years or older with COVID-like illness tested December 10, 2021, through January 1, 2022, by a national pharmacy-based testing program (4666 COVID-19 testing sites across 49 US states).

EXPOSURES

Three doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (third dose ≥14 days before test and ≥6 months after second dose) vs unvaccinated and vs 2 doses 6 months or more before test (ie, eligible for a booster dose).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Association between symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (stratified by Omicron or Delta variants defined using S-gene target failure) and vaccination (3 doses vs unvaccinated and 3 doses vs 2 doses). Associations were measured with multivariable multinomial regression. Among cases, a secondary outcome was median cycle threshold values (inversely proportional to the amount of target nucleic acid present) for 3 viral genes, stratified by variant and vaccination status.

RESULTS

Overall, 23 391 cases (13 098 Omicron; 10 293 Delta) and 46 764 controls were included (mean age, 40.3 [SD, 15.6] years; 42 050 [60.1%] women). Prior receipt of 3 mRNA vaccine doses was reported for 18.6% (n = 2441) of Omicron cases, 6.6% (n = 679) of Delta cases, and 39.7% (n = 18 587) of controls; prior receipt of 2 mRNA vaccine doses was reported for 55.3% (n = 7245), 44.4% (n = 4570), and 41.6% (n = 19 456), respectively; and being unvaccinated was reported for 26.0% (n = 3412), 49.0% (n = 5044), and 18.6% (n = 8721), respectively. The adjusted odds ratio for 3 doses vs unvaccinated was 0.33 (95% CI, 0.31-0.35) for Omicron and 0.065 (95% CI, 0.059-0.071) for Delta; for 3 vaccine doses vs 2 doses the adjusted odds ratio was 0.34 (95% CI, 0.32-0.36) for Omicron and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.14-0.17) for Delta. Median cycle threshold values were significantly higher in cases with 3 doses vs 2 doses for both Omicron and Delta (Omicron N gene: 19.35 vs 18.52; Omicron ORF1ab gene: 19.25 vs 18.40; Delta N gene: 19.07 vs 17.52; Delta ORF1ab gene: 18.70 vs 17.28; Delta S gene: 23.62 vs 20.24).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among individuals seeking testing for COVID-like illness in the US in December 2021, receipt of 3 doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (compared with unvaccinated and with receipt of 2 doses) was less likely among cases with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with test-negative controls. These findings suggest that receipt of 3 doses of mRNA vaccine, relative to being unvaccinated and to receipt of 2 doses, was associated with protection against both the Omicron and Delta variants, although the higher odds ratios for Omicron suggest less protection for Omicron than for Delta.

Clinical Severity and mRNA Vaccine Effectiveness for Omicron, Delta, and Alpha SARS-CoV-2 Variants in the United States: A Prospective Observational Study

OBJECTIVES

To characterize the clinical severity of COVID-19 caused by Omicron, Delta, and Alpha SARS-CoV-2 variants among hospitalized adults and to compare the effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines to prevent hospitalizations caused by each variant.

DESIGN

A case-control study of 11,690 hospitalized adults.

SETTING

Twenty-one hospitals across the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

This study included 5728 cases hospitalized with COVID-19 and 5962 controls hospitalized without COVID-19. Cases were classified into SARS-CoV-2 variant groups based on viral whole genome sequencing, and if sequencing did not reveal a lineage, by the predominant circulating variant at the time of hospital admission: Alpha (March 11 to July 3, 2021), Delta (July 4 to December 25, 2021), and Omicron (December 26, 2021 to January 14, 2022).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Vaccine effectiveness was calculated using a test-negative design for COVID-19 mRNA vaccines to prevent COVID-19 hospitalizations by each variant (Alpha, Delta, Omicron). Among hospitalized patients with COVID-19, disease severity on the WHO Clinical Progression Ordinal Scale was compared among variants using proportional odds regression.

RESULTS

Vaccine effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines to prevent COVID-19-associated hospitalizations included: 85% (95% CI: 82 to 88%) for 2 vaccine doses against Alpha; 85% (95% CI: 83 to 87%) for 2 doses against Delta; 94% (95% CI: 92 to 95%) for 3 doses against Delta; 65% (95% CI: 51 to 75%) for 2 doses against Omicron; and 86% (95% CI: 77 to 91%) for 3 doses against Omicron. Among hospitalized unvaccinated COVID-19 patients, severity on the WHO Clinical Progression Scale was higher for Delta than Alpha (adjusted proportional odds ratio [aPOR] 1.28, 95% CI: 1.11 to 1.46), and lower for Omicron than Delta (aPOR 0.61, 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.77). Compared to unvaccinated cases, severity was lower for vaccinated cases for each variant, including Alpha (aPOR 0.33, 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.49), Delta (aPOR 0.44, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.51), and Omicron (aPOR 0.61, 95% CI: 0.44 to 0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

mRNA vaccines were highly effective in preventing COVID-19-associated hospitalizations from Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants, but three vaccine doses were required to achieve protection against Omicron similar to the protection that two doses provided against Delta and Alpha. Among adults hospitalized with COVID-19, Omicron caused less severe disease than Delta, but still resulted in substantial morbidity and mortality. Vaccinated patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had significantly lower disease severity than unvaccinated patients for all the variants.

Influence function methods to assess the effectiveness of influenza vaccine with survey data

OBJECTIVE

To examine a robust relative risk (RR) estimation for survey data analysis with ideal inferential properties under various model assumptions.

DATA SOURCES

We employed secondary data from the Household Component of the 2000-2016 US Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS).

STUDY DESIGN

We investigate a broad range of data-balancing techniques by implementing influence function (IF) methods, which allows us to easily estimate the variability for the RR estimates in the complex survey setting. We conduct a simulation study of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness to evaluate these approaches and discuss techniques that show robust inferential performance across model assumptions.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

Demographic information, vaccine status, and self-administered questionnaire surveys were obtained from the longitudinal data files. We linked this information with medical condition files and medical event to extract the disease type and associated expenditures for each medical visit. We excluded individuals who were 18 years or younger at the beginning of each panel.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Under various model assumptions, the IF methods show robust inferential performance when the data-balancing procedures are incorporated. Once IF methods and data-balancing techniques are implemented, contingency table-based RR estimation yields a comparable result to the generalized linear model approach. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methods for complex survey data using 2000-2016 MEPS data. When employing these methods, we find a significant, negative association between vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates and influenza-incurred expenditures.

CONCLUSIONS

We describe and demonstrate a robust method for RR estimation and relevant inferences for influenza vaccine effectiveness using MEPS data. The proposed method is flexible and can be extended to weighted data for survey data analysis. Hence, these methods have great potential for health services research, especially when data are nonexperimental and imbalanced.

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals: measurement, causes and impact

Breakthrough infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in fully vaccinated individuals are receiving intense scrutiny because of their importance in determining how long restrictions to control virus transmission will need to remain in place in highly vaccinated populations as well as in determining the need for additional vaccine doses or changes to the vaccine formulations and/or dosing intervals. Measurement of breakthrough infections is challenging outside of randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind field trials. However, laboratory and observational studies are necessary to understand the impact of waning immunity, viral variants and other determinants of changing vaccine effectiveness against various levels of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity. Here, we describe the approaches being used to measure vaccine effectiveness and provide a synthesis of the burgeoning literature on the determinants of vaccine effectiveness and breakthrough rates. We argue that, rather than trying to tease apart the contributions of factors such as age, viral variants and time since vaccination, the rates of breakthrough infection are best seen as a consequence of the level of immunity at any moment in an individual, the variant to which that individual is exposed and the severity of disease being considered. We also address key open questions concerning the transition to endemicity, the potential need for altered vaccine formulations to track viral variants, the need to identify immune correlates of protection, and the public health challenges of using various tools to counter breakthrough infections, including boosters in an era of global vaccine shortages.

Seasonal influenza vaccination is associated with reduced risk of death among Medicare beneficiaries☆

BACKGROUND

Influenza causes substantial mortality, especially among older persons. Influenza vaccines are rarely more than 50% effective and rarely reach more than half of the US Medicare population, which is primarily an aged population. We wished to estimate the association between vaccination and mortality reduction.

METHOD

We used the US Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) DataLink Project to determine vaccination status and timing during the 2017-2018 influenza season for more than 26 million Medicare enrollees. Patient-level demographic, health, co-morbidity, hospitalization, vaccination, and healthcare utilization claims data were supplied as covariates to general linear models in order to isolate and estimate the association between participation in the vaccination program and relative risk of death.

FINDINGS

The 2017-2018 seasonal influenza vaccine reduced (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] 0.936 [95% CI = 0.918-0.954]) the risk of all-cause death among beneficiaries following a hospitalization for sepsis and moreover the risk of death without a prior hospitalization during the 2.5-month outcome window (RRR 0.870 [95% CI = 0.853-0.887]). We estimate the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent a death in the ten-week outcome window is between 1,515 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,351-1,754; derived from the average treatment effect of augmented inverse probability weighting) and 1,960 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,695-2,381; derived from the average marginal effect of logistic regression). Among beneficiaries requiring hospitalization, the greatest death risk reduction accrued to those 85 + years of age who were hospitalized with sepsis, RRR 0.92 [95% CI = 0.89-0.95]. No apparent benefit was realized by beneficiaries who required custodial (nursing home) care.

INTERPRETATION

Seasonal influenza immunization is associated with relative reduction of death risk among non-institutionalized Medicare beneficiaries.

FUNDING

All authors are full-time or contractual employees of the United States Federal Government, Department of Health and Human Services, the funding agency.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness in preventing confirmed infection in pregnant women

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy is associated with a higher risk of pregnancy-related complications and neonatal respiratory distress and hospitalization. Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in pregnant women is not known.MethodsAll women with confirmed pregnancy who presented to the national referral hospital in Qatar between December 20, 2020, and May 30, 2021, with at least 1 SARS-CoV-2 test and not testing prior to pregnancy were included. We determined the vaccine effectiveness of mRNA vaccines in preventing confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy using both cohort and test-negative case-control designs. Analyses were adjusted for age group, nationality, and gestational age.ResultsAmong 4534 pregnant women, there were 407 vaccinated and 407 unvaccinated women in the matched cohort analysis. Vaccine effectiveness was 87.6% (95%CI 44.1%-97.2%) at least 14 days after the second dose. There were 386 test-positive and 834 matched women in the test-negative case control analysis. Vaccine effectiveness was 86.8% (95%CI 47.5%-98.5%) at least 14 days after the second dose. Adjustment for age, nationality, and gestational age yielded similar results for both designs. In the test-negative analysis, vaccine effectiveness at least 14 days after the first dose but before the second dose was 40.8% (95% CI 0.0%-80.4%). Of the 386 test-positive pregnant women, 74 cases were Alpha variant, 163 cases were Beta variant, and 156 cases were variants of unknown status. There were 9 severe or critical disease cases and no deaths in the test-positive pregnant women, all of whom were unvaccinated.ConclusionThe mRNA vaccines provide a high level of protection against documented SARS-CoV-2 infection, which supports the inclusion of pregnant women in vaccination campaigns.FUNDINGHamad Medical Corporation, Weill Cornell Medicine Qatar, and the Ministry of Public Health Qatar.

Elapsed time since BNT162b2 vaccine and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection: test negative design study

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether time elapsed since the second injection of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was significantly associated with the risk of covid-19 infection after vaccination in people who received two vaccine injections.

DESIGN

Test negative design study.

SETTING

Electronic health records of a large state mandated healthcare organisation, Israel.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged ≥18 years who had received a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test between 15 May 2021 and 17 September 2021, at least three weeks after their second vaccine injection, had not received a third vaccine injection, and had no history of covid-19 infection.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Positive result for the RT-PCR test. Individuals who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and controls were matched for week of testing, age category, and demographic group (ultra-orthodox Jews, individuals of Arab ancestry, and the general population). Conditional logistic regression was adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbid conditions.

RESULTS

83 057 adults received an RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 during the study period and 9.6% had a positive result. Time elapsed since the vaccine injection was significantly longer in individuals who tested positive (P<0.001). Adjusted odds ratio for infection at time intervals >90 days since vaccination were significantly increased compared with the reference of <90 days: 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.67 to 3.36) for 90-119 days, 2.66 (1.94 to 3.66) for 120-149 days, 2.82 (2.07 to 3.84) for 150-179 days, and 2.82 (2.07 to 3.85) for ≥180 days (P<0.001 for each 30 day interval).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large population of adults tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR after two doses of mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine, a gradual increase in the risk of infection was seen for individuals who received their second vaccine dose after at least 90 days.