Modeling the impact of subclinical measles transmission in vaccinated populations with waning immunity

Implications of vaccination and waning immunity

For infectious diseases where immunization can offer lifelong protection, a variety of simple models can be used to explain the utility of vaccination as a control method. However, for many diseases, immunity wanes over time and is subsequently enhanced (boosted) by asymptomatic encounters with the infection. The study of this type of epidemiological process requires a model formulation that can capture both the within-host dynamics of the pathogen and immune system as well as the associated population-level transmission dynamics. Here, we parametrize such a model for measles and show how vaccination can have a range of unexpected consequences as it reduces the natural boosting of immunity as well as reducing the number of naive susceptibles. In particular, we show that moderate waning times (40-80 years) and high levels of vaccination (greater than 70%) can induce large-scale oscillations with substantial numbers of symptomatic cases being generated at the peak. In addition, we predict that, after a long disease-free period, the introduction of infection will lead to far larger epidemics than that predicted by standard models. These results have clear implications for the long-term success of any vaccination campaign and highlight the need for a sound understanding of the immunological mechanisms of immunity and vaccination.

Evaluation of a measles vaccine campaign by oral-fluid surveys in a rural Kenyan district: interpretation of antibody prevalence data using mixture models

We evaluated the effectiveness of a measles vaccine campaign in rural Kenya, based on oral-fluid surveys and mixture-modelling analysis. Specimens were collected from 886 children aged 9 months to 14 years pre-campaign and from a comparison sample of 598 children aged 6 months post-campaign. Quantitative measles-specific antibody data were obtained by commercial kit. The estimated proportions of measles-specific antibody negative in children aged 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14 years were 51%, 42% and 27%, respectively, pre- campaign and 18%, 14% and 6%, respectively, post-campaign. We estimate a reduction in the proportion susceptible of 65-78%, with approximately 85% of the population recorded to have received vaccine. The proportion of 'weak' positive individuals rose from 35% pre-campaign to 54% post-campaign. Our results confirm the effectiveness of the campaign in reducing susceptibility to measles and demonstrate the potential of oral-fluid studies to monitor the impact of measles vaccination campaigns.

Potential impacts of schedule changes, waning immunity and vaccine uptake on measles elimination in Australia

The second dose of MMR vaccine (MMR2) is scheduled at 4 years in Australia and the USA but earlier in some European countries. We modelled the effect on measles elimination status and population susceptibility of shifting delivery of MMR2 from 4 years to 18 months using relevant Australian data. Susceptibility in young children was reduced but elimination was not sustainable past 2015 if 6% of vaccinated seroconverters became susceptible after 10 years. One-dose MMR coverage of 96% or greater maintained elimination more effectively than modelled changes in scheduling, suggesting that maximising one-dose MMR coverage should be the highest priority.

An in-host model of acute infection: measles as a case study

The epidemiology of acute infections is strongly influenced by the immune status of individuals. In-host models can provide quantitative predictions of immune status and can thus offer valuable insights into the factors that influence transmission between individuals and the effectiveness of vaccination protocols with respect to individual immunity. Here we develop an in-host model of measles infection. The model explicitly considers the effects of immune system memory and CD8 T-cells, which are key to measles clearance. The model is used to determine the effects of waning immunity through vaccination and infection, the effects of booster exposures or vaccines on the level of immunity, and the immune system characteristics that result in measles transmission (R(0)>1) even if an individual has no apparent clinical symptoms. We find that the level of immune system CD8 T-cells at the time of exposure to measles determines whether an individual will experience a measles infection or simply a boost in immunity. We also find that the infected cell dynamics are a good indicator of measles transmission and the degree of symptoms that will be experienced. Our results indicate that the degree of immunity in adults is independent of the source of exposure in early childhood, be it vaccine or natural infection.

Modeling the long-term antibody response of a human papillomavirus (HPV) virus-like particle (VLP) type 16 prophylactic vaccine

The duration over which antibody responses persist following HPV vaccination is unknown. To estimate the longevity of responses induced by HPV-16 vaccination, two models were fitted to serum anti-HPV-16 levels measured during a 48-month study period. The first was a conventional model of antibody decay and the second was a modified model that accounts for long-lived immune memory. Using the antibody decay model, it was estimated that following administration of a three-dose regimen of HPV-16 vaccine in women aged 16-23 years, anti-HPV-16 levels will remain above those induced naturally by HPV-16 infection for 12 years, and above detectable levels for 32 years in 50% of vaccinees. With the modified model, which fitted the data better (p<0.001), it was estimated that near life-long persistence of anti-HPV-16 following vaccination is expected at titer levels above those associated with reduction of natural HPV-16 infection in 76% of these subjects, and above detectable levels in 99% of these subjects.

Global measles elimination

Measles remains a leading vaccine-preventable cause of child mortality worldwide, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where almost half of the estimated 454,000 measles deaths in 2004 occurred. However, great progress in measles control has been made in resource-poor countries through accelerated measles-control efforts. The global elimination of measles has been debated since measles vaccines were first licensed in the 1960's, and this debate is likely to be renewed if polio virus is eradicated. This review discusses the pathogenesis of measles and the likelihood of the worldwide elimination of this disease.

Nonpeptide inhibitors of measles virus entry

Measles virus (MV) is one of the most infectious pathogens known. Despite the existence of a vaccine, over 500,000 deaths/year result from MV or associated complications. Anti-measles compounds could conceivably reverse these statistics. Previously, we described a homology model of the MV fusion protein trimer and a putative binding site near the head-neck region. The resulting model permitted the identification of two nonpeptidic entry inhibitors. Here, we present the design, synthesis, and bioevaluation of several series of fusion inhibitors and describe their structure-activity relationships (SAR). Five simply substituted anilides show low-microM blockade of the MV, one of which (AS-48) exhibits IC50 = 0.6-3.0 microM across a panel of wild-type MV strains found in the field. Molecular field topology analysis (MFTA), a 2D QSAR approach based on local molecular properties (atomic charges, hydrogen-bonding capacity and local lipophilicity), applied to the anilide series suggests structural modifications to improve potency.

Implications of a 2005 measles outbreak in Indiana for sustained elimination of measles in the United States

BACKGROUND

Measles was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000 but remains endemic worldwide. In 2005, a 17-year-old unvaccinated girl who was incubating measles returned from Romania, creating the largest documented outbreak of measles in the United States since 1996.

METHODS

We conducted a case-series investigation, molecular typing of viral isolates, surveys of rates of vaccination coverage, interviews regarding attitudes toward vaccination, and cost surveys.

RESULTS

Approximately 500 persons attended a gathering with the index patient one day after her return home. Approximately 50 lacked evidence of measles immunity, of whom 16 (32 percent) acquired measles at the gathering. During the six weeks after the gathering, a total of 34 cases of measles were confirmed. Of the patients with confirmed measles, 94 percent were unvaccinated, 88 percent were less than 20 years of age, and 9 percent were hospitalized. Of the 28 patients who were 5 to 19 years of age, 71 percent were home-schooled. Vaccine failure occurred in two persons. The virus strain was genotype D4, which is endemic in Romania. Although containment measures began after 20 persons were already infectious, measles remained confined mostly to children whose parents had refused to have them vaccinated, primarily out of concern for adverse events from the vaccine. Seventy-one percent of patients were from four households. Levels of measles-vaccination coverage in Indiana were 92 percent for preschoolers and 98 percent for sixth graders. Estimated costs of containing the disease were at least 167,685 dollars, including 113,647 dollars at a hospital with an infected employee.

CONCLUSIONS

This outbreak was caused by the importation of measles into a population of children whose parents had refused to have them vaccinated because of safety concerns about the vaccine. High vaccination levels in the surrounding community and low rates of vaccine failure averted an epidemic. Maintenance of high rates of vaccination coverage, including improved strategies of communication with persons who refuse vaccination, is necessary to prevent future outbreaks and sustain the elimination of measles in the United States.

Gaining insights into human viral diseases through mathematics

Mathematical models have been recognized as powerful tools for providing new insights into the understanding of viral dynamics of human diseases at both the population and cellular levels. This article briefly reviews the role of mathematical models and␣their historical precedents for creating new knowledge of the mechanisms of disease pathogenesis, transmission, and control of some human viral infections. Future research in the modelling of infectious diseases will need to rely upon incorporation of the fundamental principles that govern viral dynamics in vivo as well as in the population.

Interpreting serological surveys using mixture models: the seroepidemiology of measles, mumps and rubella in England and Wales at the beginning of the 21st century

A mixture modelling technique is applied to age-specific frequency distributions of quantitative results from serological surveys for measles, mumps and rubella using samples collected across the age range in England and Wales in 2000. In accordance with previous studies the analysis suggests that the antibody response to natural infection is stronger than that produced by vaccination, that vaccine-induced antibody levels wane with time and that levels of vaccine-induced antibody response vary for each virus infection being strongest for rubella and weakest for mumps. The current mumps epidemic in the United Kingdom is focused in cohorts born during 1982-1987 who were too old to have received routine MMR vaccination. In the cohort born in 1981-1985 the model estimates that 7.5% have no evidence of mumps specific IgG and 24.9% have the lowest level of detectable antibody. The similar proportions of mumps antibody in these categories among cohorts with opportunity for 1 or 2 doses of vaccine is a concern, as the degree to which these individuals are protected is unclear. Investigations into the efficacy of two doses of a mumps containing vaccine should be a priority during the current epidemic.

Design of a small-molecule entry inhibitor with activity against primary measles virus strains

The incidence of measles virus (MV) infection has been significantly reduced in many nations through extensive vaccination; however, the virus still causes significant morbidity and mortality in developing countries. Measles outbreaks also occur in some developed countries that have failed to maintain high vaccine coverage rates. While vaccination is essential in preventing the spread of measles, case management would greatly benefit from the use of therapeutic agents to lower morbidity. Thus, the development of new therapeutic strategies is desirable. We previously reported the generation of a panel of small-molecule MV entry inhibitors. Here we show that our initial lead compound, although providing proof of concept for our approach, has a short half-life (<16 h) under physiological conditions. In order to combine potent antiviral activity with increased compound stability, a targeted library of candidate molecules designed on the structural basis of the first lead has been synthesized and tested against MV. We have identified an improved lead with low toxicity and high stability (half-life >> 16 h) that prevents viral entry and hence infection. This compound shows high MV specificity and strong activity (50% inhibitory concentration = 0.6 to 3.0 microM, depending on the MV genotype) against a panel of wild-type MV strains representative of viruses that are currently endemic in the field.

Modelling the effect of a booster vaccination on disease epidemiology

Despite the effectiveness of vaccines in dramatically decreasing the number of new infectious cases and severity of illnesses, imperfect vaccines may not completely prevent infection. This is because the immunity afforded by these vaccines is not complete and may wane with time, leading to resurgence and epidemic outbreaks notwithstanding high levels of primary vaccination. To prevent an endemic spread of disease, and achieve eradication, several countries have introduced booster vaccination programs. The question of whether this strategy could eventually provide the conditions for global eradication is addressed here by developing a seasonally-forced mathematical model. The analysis of the model provides the threshold condition for disease control in terms of four major parameters: coverage of the primary vaccine; efficacy of the vaccine; waning rate; and the rate of booster administration. The results show that if the vaccine provides only temporary immunity, then the infection typically cannot be eradicated by a single vaccination episode. Furthermore, having a booster program does not necessarily guarantee the control of a disease, though the level of epidemicity may be reduced. In addition, these findings strongly suggest that the high coverage of primary vaccination remains crucial to the success of a booster strategy. Simulations using estimated parameters for measles illustrate model predictions.

A simple method for the detection of measles virus genome by loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP)

Approximately 20,000-30,000 measles patients were reported in a surveillance of infectious diseases because of low vaccine coverage of 80% in Japan. Among them, some were thought to be secondary vaccine failure (SVF) with generally mild or non-typical measles illness and sometimes became a source of further transmission. We have developed a new, sensitive, and rapid method to detect the measles virus genome by reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP). We examined 50 nasopharyngeal secretion (NPS) samples that were obtained during the 1999 outbreak and stored at -70 degrees C and fresh NPS, lymphocytes and sera from 11 patients in 2003. Total RNA was extracted from the samples and subjected to reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and RT-LAMP. We detected the genomic RNA corresponding to at least 0.01-0.04 TCID50, 30-100 copies in samples by RT-LAMP within 60 min after extraction of RNA, and all four genotypes isolated in Japan were equally amplified. Specific DNA amplification was monitored spectrophotometrically by real time turbidimeter and the quantity of RNA was calculated. Measles virus genome was detected in 44 of 50 stored NPS by RT-PCR and in 49 by RT-LAMP. The vaccine strain was discriminated from wild strains after sequencing the LAMP products. RT-LAMP is a useful rapid diagnostic method for the detection of measles virus without any special apparatus, showing higher sensitivity than RT-PCR, and expected to be applied for hospital-based infection control and for laboratory-based measles surveillance.

Follow-up of infants given measles vaccine at 6 months of age: antibody and CMI responses to MMRII at 15 months of age and antibody levels at 27 months of age

The worldwide elimination of measles is an important target. In developed countries, to control measles outbreaks, immunization from 6 months of age is recommended. In this study, infants (n = 290) who were (1) born to mothers with natural immunity or to vaccinated mothers and (2) previously immunized with Connaught (CLL) or AIK-C measles vaccine at 6 months of age, were evaluated for measles immunity before and after measles-mumps-rubella (MMRII at 15 months of age. Eight weeks after MMRII, 98.9% of infants were seropositive by enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and 70% demonstrated measles specific cellular immunity by blast transformation (BT) of lymphocytes. At 27 months of age, 98.4% of infants had protective antibody levels by plaque reduction neutralization (PRN) test. These results suggest that AIK-C and CLL vaccines elicit durable protective immunity in young infants when used in early immunization programs.

Persistence of vaccine-induced antibody to measles 26-33 years after vaccination

Because measles-specific antibody titer after vaccination is lower than after natural infection, there is concern that vaccinated persons may gradually lose protection from measles. To examine the persistence of vaccine-induced antibody, participants of a vaccine study in 1971, with documentation of antibody 1-7 years after vaccination, were followed up in 1997-1999 to determine the presence and titer of measles antibody. Of the 56 participants (77% were 2-dose recipients), all had antibodies detected by the plaque reduction neutralization (PRN) antibody assay an average of 26-33 years after the first or second dose of measles vaccine; 92% had a PRN titer considered protective (>1 : 120). Baseline hemagglutination inhibition antibody titer in 1971 strongly predicted follow-up PRN antibody titer (P<.001). Persistence of antibody in these primarily 2-dose recipients supports the current elimination strategy to achieve and sustain high population immunity with a 2-dose schedule.

Modelling measles re-emergence as a result of waning of immunity in vaccinated populations

An age-structured mathematical model of measles transmission in a vaccinated population is used to simulate the shift from a population whose immunity is derived from natural infection to a population whose immunity is vaccine-induced. The model incorporates waning of immunity in a population of vaccinees that eventually will become susceptible to a milder form of vaccine-modified measles with a lower transmission potential than unvaccinated classical measles. Using current estimates of duration of vaccine-derived protection, measles would not be expected to re-emerge quickly in countries with sustained high routine vaccine coverage. However, re-emergence is possible to occur several decades after introduction of high levels of vaccination. Time until re-emergence depends primarily on the contagiousness of vaccine-modified measles cases in comparison to classical measles. Interestingly, in a population with a high proportion of vaccinees, vaccine-modified measles and classical measles would occur essentially in the same age groups. Although waning of humoral immunity in vaccinees is widely observed, re-emergence of measles in highly vaccinated populations depends on parameters for which better estimates are needed.

Lack of Evidence of Measles Virus Shedding in People with Inapparent Measles Virus Infections

Serological evidence of measles virus infection has been detected among people exposed to measles who do not exhibit classical clinical symptoms. Throat swabs, lymphocytes, and serum and urine samples were collected from contacts of individuals with confirmed measles 12-16 days after exposure, during measles outbreaks occurring in 1998. Follow-up serum samples were drawn 2 weeks later. Samples were tested for measles IgM antibody by enzyme immunoassays and plaque reduction neutralization testing. Virus isolation and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction testing was attempted for all samples. None of the 133 contacts developed classical measles disease; 11 (8%) had serological evidence of infection. Duration of exposure of >or=3 h was the only significant risk factor for developing serological response (24% vs. 4% among contacts exposed for 1-2 h; relative risk, 6.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-19.2). None of the 133 contacts had virological evidence of infection by culture or polymerase chain reaction. We found no evidence that persons with inapparent measles virus infections shed measles virus.

Epidemiology of Measles in the United States, 1997-2001

Of the 540 measles cases (annual incidence, less than 1/million population) reported during 1997-2001 in the United States, 362 (67%) were associated with international importation: 196 imported cases, 138 cases epidemiologically linked to imported cases, and 28 cases associated with an imported measles virus genotype. The remaining 178 (33%) "unknown-source" cases were analyzed as potential evidence of endemic measles transmission. A total of 83 counties (2.6% of the 3140 US counties) in 27 states reported unknown-source cases; 49 counties reported only 1 unknown-source case, and the maximum reported by any county was 10. Nationally, unknown-source cases were reported in 103 of the 260 weeks. The largest unknown-source outbreak included 13 cases and lasted 5 weeks. The rarity of unknown-source cases, wide gaps in geographic and temporal distribution, and the short duration of the longest unknown-source outbreak indicate that endemic transmission of measles was not sustained in the United States during this period.

A target site for template-based design of measles virus entry inhibitors

Measles virus (MV) constitutes a principal cause of worldwide mortality, accounting for almost 1 million deaths annually. Although a live-attenuated vaccine protects against MV, vaccination efficiency of young infants is low because of interference by maternal antibodies. Parental concerns about vaccination safety further contribute to waning herd immunity in developed countries, resulting in recent MV outbreaks. The development of novel antivirals that close the vaccination gap in infants and silence viral outbreaks is thus highly desirable. We previously identified a microdomain in the MV fusion protein (F protein) that is structurally conserved in the paramyxovirus family and constitutes a promising target site for rationally designed antivirals. Here we report the template-based development of a small-molecule MV inhibitor, providing proof-of-concept for our approach. This lead compound specifically inhibits fusion and spread of live MV and MV glycoprotein-induced membrane fusion. The inhibitor induces negligible cytotoxicity and does not interfere with receptor binding or F protein biosynthesis or transport but prevents F protein-induced lipid mixing. Mutations in the postulated target site alter viral sensitivity to inhibition. In silico docking of the compound in this microdomain suggests a binding model that is experimentally corroborated by a structure-activity analysis of the compound and the inhibition profile of mutated F proteins. A second-generation compound designed on the basis of the interaction model shows a 200-fold increase in antiviral activity, creating the basis for novel MV therapeutics. This template-based design approach for MV may be applicable to other clinically relevant members of the paramyxovirus family.

IgG avidity to distinguish secondary from primary measles vaccination failures: prospects for a more effective global measles elimination strategy

The nearly 40-year long debate on the relevance of secondary measles vaccination failure has been inconclusive because a feasible method for the assessment of the duration of immunity has been lacking. Even if a two-dose measles vaccination policy is now universally endorsed, WHO still officially adheres to the view that a single successful measles vaccination, without natural boosters, induces a lifelong immunity and deems secondary failures epidemiologically irrelevant - in the belief that the latter are rare and do not participate in the transmission chain. A recently published study on measles-IgG avidity, which allows for separation of secondary from primary vaccination failures, tentatively showed that the official view does not necessarily hold true. The results may have wide implications on global measles eradication efforts. The potential of IgG avidity measurement in complex postvaccination measles epidemiology is discussed.

Experimental vaccines against measles in a world of changing epidemiology

Vaccination with the current live attenuated measles vaccine is one of the most successful and cost-effective medical interventions. However, as a result of persisting maternal antibodies and immaturity of the infant immune system, this vaccine is poorly immunogenic in children <9 months old. Immunity against the live vaccine is less robust than natural immunity and protection less durable. There may also be some concern about (vaccine) virus spread during the final stage of an eventual measles eradication program. Opinions may differ with respect to the potential threat that some of these concerns may be to the World Health Organisation goal of measles elimination, but there is a consensus that the development of new measles vaccines cannot wait. Candidate vaccines are based on viral or bacterial vectors expressing recombinant viral proteins, naked DNA, immune stimulating complexes or synthetic peptides mimicking neutralising epitopes. While some of these candidate vaccines have proven their efficacy in monkey studies, aerosol formulated live attenuated measles vaccine are evaluated in clinical trials.

T cell responses in acute measles

Immune containment of measles virus (MV) infection has long been a focus of interest for investigators. An emerging theme is that MV immunity is conferred by appropriately polarized antiviral CD4+ and CD8+ T cell populations. Recent technological advances permit the analysis of the composition and dynamics of these CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses at the single cell level, and of the molecular events responsible for their induction. Novel insights into these issues for measles are discussed in the light of their importance for the development of an improved vaccine.

Antibody dynamics in childhood diseases: waning and boosting of immunity and the impact of vaccination

The introduction of vaccination against acute diseases such as measles induced a dramatic decline in the prevalence of the disease, and a more gradual rise in the proportion of the population whose immunity is derived solely from vaccination. These two factors combine to constitute an important shift in the dynamics of immunity, especially in highly vaccinated populations. We develop a general model to describe both loss of immunity in the absence of disease, and boosting of immunity corresponding to subclinical infection in individuals whose immunity has waned. We consider the interaction between infection and immunity and identify the key parameters that determine the eradication threshold. We explore the dynamics in the years following the introduction of vaccination using a stochastic version of the model, and consider the effect of different assumptions concerning the nature of immunity. A comparison of the model results with recently published data suggests that heterogeneity in host immune response is an important feature of the antibody dynamics.

The challenge of improving the efficacy of measles vaccine

Despite a safe and effective measles vaccine, measles still claims an estimated 800,000 lives per year mostly among children in developing countries. This paper deals with strategies to improve vaccine efficacy and prevent unnecessary deaths, including considerations of one dose at 9 months strategy for developing countries, strain of vaccine, potency and number of doses of measles vaccine. After more than 20 years of measles immunisation in the developing world, the epidemiology of measles is radically changed, and the absence of measles epidemics might lead to waning immunity due to less clinical and subclinical infections boosting the antibody level. An increasing proportion of mothers are vaccinated, thus transferring a lower maternal antibody level to their infants who will be susceptible to measles at a younger age. The strategies to limit nosocomial measles infection and spread of measles epidemics are reviewed. Though the measles elimination programmes have been very effective in the Americas, it seems unlikely that they will be equally effective in the rest of the world. Even if eradication should be possible, it might be unwise to stop measles vaccination because the vaccine apparently has beneficial effects and because it would make measles a likely weapon for bio-terrorism. If we are unlikely to get rid of measles and measles vaccine, it might be wise to study further some of the many unanswered questions regarding the long-term effects of measles and measles vaccination.

Immune responses to measles and measles vaccine: challenges for measles control

Most strategies for reducing global measles morbidity and mortality and eliminating measles are based on the ability to enhance immune responses to measles virus. Challenges to measles elimination and eradication are based in part on the need to sustain high levels of population immunity to interrupt transmission of measles virus. We review aspects of the immunology of measles and measles vaccination with the aim of demonstrating how knowledge of the immune responses is essential to furthering the goals of reducing measles morbidity and mortality and the elimination of measles. Better understanding of the mechanisms of immune suppression after measles, the potential for alternative vaccination strategies to induce immunity in young infants, and the immunologic basis of atypical measles, increased mortality after high-titer measles vaccine, and waning immunity will lead to improved strategies for measles control and elimination.

Immunogenicity of second dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine and implications for serosurveillance

Measles and mumps, but not rubella, outbreaks have been reported amongst populations highly vaccinated with a single dose of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. Repeated experience has shown that a two-dose regime of measles vaccine is required to eliminate measles. This paper reports the effect of the first and second MMR doses on specific antibody levels in a variety of populations.2-4 years after receiving a first dose of MMR vaccine at age 12-18 months, it was found that a large proportion of pre-school children had measles (19.5%) and mumps (23.4%) IgG antibody below the putative level of protection. Only a small proportion (4.6%) had rubella antibody below the putative protective level. A total of 41% had negative or equivocal levels to one or more antigens. The proportion measles antibody negative (but not rubella or mumps) was significantly higher in children vaccinated at 12 months of age than at 13-17 months. There was no evidence for correlation of seropositivity to each antigen, other than that produced by a small excess of children (1%) negative to all three antigens. After a second dose of MMR, the proportion negative to one or more antigens dropped to <4%. Examination of national serosurveillance data, found that following an MR vaccine campaign in cohorts that previously received MMR, both measles and rubella antibody levels were initially boosted but declined to pre-vaccination levels within 3 years. Our study supports the policy of administering a second dose of MMR vaccine to all children. However, continued monitoring of long-term population protection will be required and this study suggests that in highly vaccinated populations, total measles (and rubella) IgG antibody levels may not be an accurate reflection of protection. Further studies including qualitative measures, such as avidity, in different populations are merited and may contribute to the understanding of MMR population protection.

Measles seroepidemiology and decay rate of vaccine-induced measles IgG titers in Taiwan, 1995-1997

Community-based seroepidemiologic studies were conducted to monitor the effectiveness of measles immunization programmes and to estimate the decay rate of vaccine-induced measles IgG titres. Sera collected from a mountain (792 sera), rural (875 sera) and urban (894 sera) populations in 1995-1997 were available. Measles IgG was quantified using a commercial EIA kit. Measles IgG seroprevalence and geometric mean titre (GMT) were calculated by setting the cut-off titre at 50 mIU/ml. The decay rate of measles IgG titres was estimated by assuming that the measles IgG titres, without exposing to wild measles virus, decay exponentially and constantly after 1 year post vaccination. The half-life of measles IgG titres was calculated from the corresponding decay rate. Measles IgG seroprevalences in these three populations have reached >95% in school children (7-18 years old) and >98% in young adults (19-25 years old) but varied from 87 to 96% in pre-school children (4-6 years old). Two-dose vaccinees, comparing with 1-dose vaccinees, had a significantly higher seroprevalence (98 versus 92%, P<0.01) and a slightly longer half-life of measles IgG titres (61 versus 27 months, P=0.08) but the measles IgG GMT in the two groups did not differ significantly (675 versus 618 mIU/ml, P=0.78).

Analysis of the relationship between immunogenicity and immunity for viral subunit vaccines

The prevention of viral infection by vaccination relies on stimulating an appropriate immune response in order to reduce the probability with which a virus can establish an infection. Post-vaccination antibody responses have therefore been associated with reducing the probability with which an individual can be infected (i.e., the vaccine's "impact"). Quantifying this relationship is essential in evaluating new vaccines, especially since comparisons between vaccines, and vaccine licensure, may be dependent on antibody responses alone. In this paper two principal questions are identified which need to be addressed in the evaluation of subunit vaccines: i) how do specific antibody levels relate to complete protection from infection or disease and ii) how do antigenic subunits interact in developing protection when combined together in a single vaccine. The aim is to identify explicitly certain assumptions that are frequently made implicitly in the discussion of vaccine action. First, antibody levels are related to levels of protection through a novel statistical analysis of incidence data from a published hepatitis B vaccine trial. The antibody response observed after influenza A virus infection is discussed in relation to the selection of neutralisation escape variants. Finally, by way of example, a theoretical situation is examined and three simple models of subunit vaccine action are constructed in order to describe how antibody levels may be related to population level phenomena such as the elimination of an infection by mass vaccination.

Measles elimination: old and new challenges?

Life attenuated measles vaccines have dramatically reduced measles morbidity and mortality world-wide. Despite high vaccination coverage, measles outbreaks continue to occur both in developed and developing countries. While secondary vaccine failure may be responsible for disease in some seroconverted individuals, evidence suggests that many more vaccinees who are protected against disease may not be fully protected against virus infection. In low-income developing countries protection by maternal antibodies seems to erode faster than previously estimated especially in infants who were born to vaccinated mothers. Problems of infectivity and susceptibility of vaccinees will be compounded in case wild-type viruses become less sensitive to vaccine induced immunity. These observations suggest that elimination may be more easily achieved as long as large proportions of populations are protected by wild-type virus-induced immunity.

Protective titres of measles neutralising antibody

A nation-wide measles outbreak occurred in 1988 in Taiwan. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to define the protective titre of measles neutralising (NT) antibody. Paired sera collected in 1987 and 1988 were available from 190 individuals born in 1984 who had participated in an annual hepatitis B immunisation follow-up from 1986 to 1991. Measles NT titres were quantified using a standardised neutralisation enzyme immunoassay. Measles infection was defined as a >/=4-fold rise in NT titre or seroconversion between paired sera. Symptomatic measles infection was ascribed to individuals who had measles infection and who reported measles-like symptoms between 1987 and 1988. Results demonstrated a dose-response relationship between pre-exposure NT titres and protection against measles infection. 47 of 48 individuals with measles infection in 1988 had pre-exposure NT titres </=1,017 mIU/ml; all 12 symptomatic cases had pre-exposure NT titres </=434 mIU/ml. Eleven vaccinees had pre-exposure NT titres <50 mIU/ml, of whom nine developed asymptomatic infection. The study suggests that measles NT titres >1, 000 mIU/ml may prevent measles infection and NT titres >500 mIU/ml may prevent symptomatic infection but vaccinees with undetectable or low NT titres may not necessarily be susceptible to symptomatic infection.