Transmission networks of HIV-1 among men having sex with men in the Netherlands

Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: an essential tool where the burden is greatest?

Efficient and effective HIV prevention measures for generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa have not yet been validated at the population level. Design and impact evaluation of such measures requires fine-scale understanding of local HIV transmission dynamics. The novel tools of HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology may elucidate these transmission dynamics. Such methods have been incorporated into studies of concentrated HIV epidemics to identify proximate and determinant traits associated with ongoing transmission. However, applying similar phylogenetic analyses to generalized epidemics, including the design and evaluation of prevention trials, presents additional challenges. Here we review the scope of these methods and present examples of their use in concentrated epidemics in the context of prevention. Next, we describe the current uses for phylogenetics in generalized epidemics and discuss their promise for elucidating transmission patterns and informing prevention trials. Finally, we review logistic and technical challenges inherent to large-scale molecular epidemiological studies of generalized epidemics and suggest potential solutions.

Increase in transmitted resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Europe

Background

One out of ten newly diagnosed patients in Europe was infected with a virus carrying a drug resistant mutation. We analysed the patterns over time for transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) using data from the European Spread program.

Methods

Clinical, epidemiological and virological data from 4317 patients newly diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between 2002 and 2007 were analysed. Patients were enrolled using a pre-defined sampling strategy.

Results

The overall prevalence of TDRM in this period was 8.9% (95% CI: 8.1-9.8). Interestingly, significant changes over time in TDRM caused by the different drug classes were found. Whereas nucleoside resistance mutations remained constant at 5%, a significant decline in protease inhibitors resistance mutations was observed, from 3.9% in 2002 to 1.6% in 2007 (p = 0.001). In contrast, resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) doubled from 2.0% in 2002 to 4.1% in 2007 (p = 0.004) with 58% of viral strains carrying a K103N mutation. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these temporal changes could not be explained by large clusters of TDRM.

Conclusion

During the years 2002 to 2007 transmitted resistance to NNRTI has doubled to 4% in Europe. The frequent use of NNRTI in first-line regimens and the clinical impact of NNRTI mutations warrants continued monitoring.

Patterns of transmitted HIV drug resistance in Europe vary by risk group

Background

In Europe, a continuous programme (SPREAD) has been in place for ten years to study transmission of drug resistant HIV. We analysed time trends of transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) in relation to the risk behaviour reported.

Methods

HIV-1 patients newly diagnosed in 27 countries from 2002 through 2007 were included. Inclusion was representative for risk group and geographical distribution in the participating countries in Europe. Trends over time were calculated by logistic regression.

Results

From the 4317 patients included, the majority was men-having-sex-with-men -MSM (2084, 48%), followed by heterosexuals (1501, 35%) and injection drug users (IDU) (355, 8%). MSM were more often from Western Europe origin, infected with subtype B virus, and recently infected (<1 year) (p<0.001). The prevalence of TDRM was highest in MSM (prevalence of 11.1%), followed by heterosexuals (6.6%) and IDU (5.1%, p<0.001). TDRM was predominantly ascribed to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) with a prevalence of 6.6% in MSM, 3.3% in heterosexuals and 2.0% in IDU (p = 0.001). A significant increase in resistance to non- nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and a decrease in resistance to protease inhibitors was observed in MSM (p = 0.008 and p = 0.006, respectively), but not in heterosexual patients (p = 0.68 and p = 0.14, respectively).

Conclusions

MSM showed to have significantly higher TDRM prevalence compared to heterosexuals and IDU. The increasing NNRTI resistance in MSM is likely to negatively influence the therapy response of first-line therapy, as most include NNRTI drugs.

HIV-1 transmission patterns in antiretroviral therapy-naïve, HIV-infected North Americans based on phylogenetic analysis by population level and ultra-deep DNA sequencing

Factors that contribute to the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), especially drug-resistant HIV-1 variants remain a significant public health concern. In-depth phylogenetic analyses of viral sequences obtained in the screening phase from antiretroviral-naïve HIV-infected patients seeking enrollment in EPZ108859, a large open-label study in the USA, Canada and Puerto Rico (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00440947) were examined for insights into the roles of drug resistance and epidemiological factors that could impact disease dissemination. Viral transmission clusters (VTCs) were initially predicted from a phylogenetic analysis of population level HIV-1 pol sequences obtained from 690 antiretroviral-naïve subjects in 2007. Subsequently, the predicted VTCs were tested for robustness by ultra deep sequencing (UDS) using pyrosequencing technology and further phylogenetic analyses. The demographic characteristics of clustered and non-clustered subjects were then compared. From 690 subjects, 69 were assigned to 1 of 30 VTCs, each containing 2 to 5 subjects. Race composition of VTCs were significantly more likely to be white (72% vs. 60%; p = 0.04). VTCs had fewer reverse transcriptase and major PI resistance mutations (9% vs. 24%; p = 0.002) than non-clustered sequences. Both men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) (68% vs. 48%; p = 0.001) and Canadians (29% vs. 14%; p = 0.03) were significantly more frequent in VTCs than non-clustered sequences. Of the 515 subjects who initiated antiretroviral therapy, 33 experienced confirmed virologic failure through 144 weeks while only 3/33 were from VTCs. Fewer VTCs subjects (as compared to those with non-clustering virus) had HIV-1 with resistance-associated mutations or experienced virologic failure during the course of the study. Our analysis shows specific geographical and drug resistance trends that correlate well with transmission clusters defined by HIV sequences of similarity. Furthermore, our study demonstrates the utility of molecular and epidemiological analysis of VTCs for identifying population-specific risks associated with HIV-1 transmission and developing effective local healthcare strategies.

HIV Type 1 transmission networks among men having sex with men and heterosexuals in Kenya

We performed a molecular phylogenetic study on HIV-1 polymerase sequences of men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexual patient samples in Kenya to characterize any observed HIV-1 transmission networks. HIV-1 polymerase sequences were obtained from samples in Nairobi and coastal Kenya from 84 MSM, 226 other men, and 364 women from 2005 to 2010. Using Bayesian phylogenetics, we tested whether sequences clustered by sexual orientation and geographic location. In addition, we used trait diffusion analyses to identify significant epidemiological links and to quantify the number of transmissions between risk groups. Finally, we compared 84 MSM sequences with all HIV-1 sequences available online at GenBank. Significant clustering of sequences from MSM at both coastal Kenya and Nairobi was found, with evidence of HIV-1 transmission between both locations. Although a transmission pair between a coastal MSM and woman was confirmed, no significant HIV-1 transmission was evident between MSM and the comparison population for the predominant subtype A (60%). However, a weak but significant link was evident when studying all subtypes together. GenBank comparison did not reveal other important transmission links. Our data suggest infrequent intermingling of MSM and heterosexual HIV-1 epidemics in Kenya.

Automated analysis of phylogenetic clusters

BACKGROUND

As sequence data sets used for the investigation of pathogen transmission patterns increase in size, automated tools and standardized methods for cluster analysis have become necessary. We have developed an automated Cluster Picker which identifies monophyletic clades meeting user-input criteria for bootstrap support and maximum genetic distance within large phylogenetic trees. A second tool, the Cluster Matcher, automates the process of linking genetic data to epidemiological or clinical data, and matches clusters between runs of the Cluster Picker.

RESULTS

We explore the effect of different bootstrap and genetic distance thresholds on clusters identified in a data set of publicly available HIV sequences, and compare these results to those of a previously published tool for cluster identification. To demonstrate their utility, we then use the Cluster Picker and Cluster Matcher together to investigate how clusters in the data set changed over time. We find that clusters containing sequences from more than one UK location at the first time point (multiple origin) were significantly more likely to grow than those representing only a single location.

CONCLUSIONS

The Cluster Picker and Cluster Matcher can rapidly process phylogenetic trees containing tens of thousands of sequences. Together these tools will facilitate comparisons of pathogen transmission dynamics between studies and countries.

How effectively can HIV phylogenies be used to measure heritability?

Background and objectives: The severity of HIV-1 infection, measured by set-point viral load (SPVL), is highly variable between individuals. Its heritability between infections quantifies the control the pathogen genotype has over disease severity. Heritability estimates vary widely between studies, but differences in methods make comparison difficult. Phylogenetic comparative analysis offers measures of phylogenetic signal, but it is unclear how to interpret them in terms of the fraction of variance in SPVL controlled by the virus genotype.

Methodology: We present computational methods which link statistics summarizing phylogenetic signal to heritability, h² in order to test for and quantify it. We re-analyse data from Switzerland and Uganda, and apply it to new data from the Netherlands. We systematically compare established and new (e.g. phylogenetic pairs, PP) phylogenetic signal statistics.

Results: Heritability estimates varied by method and dataset. Several methods were consistently able to detect simulated heritability above , but none below. Pagel’s λ was the most robust and sensitive. The PP method found no heritability in the Netherlands data, whereas Pagel’s λ found significant heritability only in a narrow subdivision (P =0.038). Heritability was estimated at h²=0.52 (95% confidence interval 0.00–0.63).

Conclusions and implications: This standardized measure, h², allows comparability of heritability between cohorts. We confirm high heritability in Swiss data, but neither in Ugandan data nor in the Netherlands, where it is barely significant or undetectable. Existing phylogenetic methods are ill-suited for detecting heritability below , which may nonetheless be biologically important.

Future of phylogeny in HIV prevention

The success of the HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 trial has led to revisions in HIV-1 treatment guidelines. Antiretroviral therapy may reduce the risk of HIV-1 transmissions at the population level. The design of successful treatment as prevention interventions will be predicated on a comprehensive understanding of the spatial, temporal, and biological dynamics of heterosexual men who have sex with men and intravenous drug user epidemics. Viral phylogenetics can capture the underlying structure of transmission networks based on the genetic interrelatedness of viral sequences and cluster networks that could not be otherwise identified. This article describes the phylogenetic expansion of the Montreal men who have sex with men epidemic over the last decade. High rates of coclustering of primary infections are associated with 1 infection leading to 13 onward transmissions. Phylogeny substantiates the role of primary and recent stage infection in transmission dynamics, underlying the importance of timely diagnosis and immediate antiretroviral therapy initiation to avert transmission cascades.

Transmission of risk-group specific HIV-1 strains among Dutch drug users for more than 20 years and their replacement by nonspecific strains after switching to low-harm drug practices

OBJECTIVES

To characterize HIV-1 epidemiological networks of men having sex with men (MSM) and drug users (DUs) in the Netherlands for >30 years.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Previously, we demonstrated different origin of the HIV-1 epidemics in Dutch MSM and DUs. To achieve the study objectives, risk group-specific genetic markers in the pol gene were examined in 315 participants of the Amsterdam Cohort Studies on HIV/AIDS who were registered as HIV-1 infected in 1981-2011.

RESULTS

Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated circulation of distinct virus strains in the 2 networks, with 98% of viruses of MSM clustering together and apart from strains of 73% DUs. Nine genetic markers that significantly distinguished virus strains specific for DUs were identified, of which 3 were ≥90% conserved. Over the total observation period, only 6% of viruses (4 of MSM and 14 of DUs) clustered with those of the other risk group. Among these sequences, the 3 most conserved genetic markers of that other risk group were 87% conserved.All 4 cases of DU-specific viruses among MSM occurred in 1980s-early 1990s. Viruses nonspecific for DUs were causing new infections among DUs at the rate of 20% till 2002 and replaced DU-specific strains among new infections thereafter, coinciding with switching of DUs to low-harm drug practices.

CONCLUSIONS

Dutch MSM and DUs have remained separate epidemiological networks for decades, despite their geographical and behavioral overlap. Switching to low-harm drug practices among DUs resulted in new infections caused by HIV-1 strains originating from other risk groups.

Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic: the role of very late presenters in sustaining the epidemic

BACKGROUND

In Denmark, 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behavior for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns. The role of very late presenters (VLPs, defined by a CD4 T-cell count of <200 cells/μL at the time of diagnosis) in driving the epidemic is currently not known and was investigated in this study.

METHODS

We performed phylogenetic analysis to identify potential transmission clusters. One thousand five hundred fifteen partial polymerase sequences from 1515 newly diagnosed individuals in Denmark for whom clinical and epidemiological data existed were included in the study.

RESULTS

We identified 46 epidemic clusters, including a total of 502 patients. Median cluster size was 7 patients (range, 4-82). Of the 460 VLPs, 20% were included in a cluster. Through multivariate analysis, it was found that the clusters mainly consisted of Danish individuals with homosexual and intravenous drug use risk behavior, infected in Denmark with subtype B. Large clusters contained significantly more homosexual transmission events, characterized by primary infections, younger age, higher CD4 cell count, and lower viral load compared with the small clusters that contained mostly heterosexual transmission events and VLP.

CONCLUSION

Danish HIV epidemic is driven mainly by younger homosexual men diagnosed during primary HIV infection. VLPs appear more frequently in smaller clusters or as single branches in the phylogeny. The VLP contribution is not of significant importance from a transmission standpoint.

Behavioral and molecular tracing of risky sexual contacts in a sample of Chinese HIV-infected men who have sex with men

Contact tracing, coupled with molecular epidemiologic investigation, is especially useful for identifying an infection with few cases in the population, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in China. No such research is available on Chinese men who have sex with men (MSM). From 2008 to 2010 in Taizhou Prefecture in China, every newly diagnosed HIV-infected MSM was invited to participate as an “index case” in a contact tracing survey by providing contact information for up to 8 sexual contacts, who themselves were approached to receive voluntary HIV counseling and testing. Those who tested HIV-positive were then subjected to another contact tracing survey. This process was repeated until no more sexual contacts were reported or tested positive. A total of 100 HIV-infected MSM served as “index cases,” including the initial 49 cases identified through routine surveillance programs and 51 cases from the present survey. Traced MSM exhibited little willingness to receive voluntary counseling and testing. CRF01_AE (HIV type 1) was the dominant subtype. Seven of 49 independent sexual networks were deemed HIV transmission clusters. Fear of stigma or discrimination may deter Chinese MSM from receiving voluntary counseling and testing. Nonetheless, the integration of behavioral network analysis and HIV phylogenetic analysis provides enhanced evidence for developing tailored prevention strategies for HIV-infected MSM.

HIV incidence in men who have sex with men in England and Wales 2001-10: a nationwide population study

Background

Control of HIV transmission could be achievable through an expansion of HIV testing of at-risk populations together with ready access and adherence to antiretroviral therapy. To examine whether increases in testing rates and antiretroviral therapy coverage correspond to the control of HIV transmission, we estimated HIV incidence in men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales since 2001.

Methods

A CD4-staged back-calculation model of HIV incidence was used to disentangle the competing contributions of time-varying rates of diagnosis and HIV incidence to observed HIV diagnoses. Estimated trends in time to diagnosis, incidence, and undiagnosed infection in MSM were interpreted against a backdrop of increased HIV testing rates and antiretroviral-therapy coverage over the period 2001–10.

Findings

The observed 3·7 fold expansion in HIV testing in MSM was mirrored by a decline in the estimated mean time-to-diagnosis interval from 4·0 years (95% credible interval [CrI] 3·8–4·2) in 2001 to 3·2 years (2·6–3·8) by the end of 2010. However, neither HIV incidence (2300–2500 annual infections) nor the number of undiagnosed HIV infections (7370, 95% CrI 6990–7800, in 2001, and 7690, 5460–10 580, in 2010) changed throughout the decade, despite an increase in antiretroviral uptake from 69% in 2001 to 80% in 2010.

Interpretation

CD4 cell counts at HIV diagnosis are fundamental to the production of robust estimates of incidence based on HIV diagnosis data. Improved frequency and targeting of HIV testing, as well as the introduction of ART at higher CD4 counts than is currently recommended, could begin a decline in HIV transmission among MSM in England and Wales.

Funding

UK Medical Research Council, UK Health Protection Agency.

HIV incidence and predictors associated with retention in a cohort of men who have sex with men in Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, China

Background

The study was to investigate the incidence of HIV-1 and related factors, as well as predictors associated with retention in a cohort study among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province, China. A carefully designed 12-month prospective cohort study was conducted.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A total of 278 sero-negative MSM were recruited and followed up for 12 months starting from May, 2008. Participants were tested for HIV-1 at baseline, 6-month, and 12-month follow-up visits. Questionnaire interviews were conducted to collect information. The retention rate and HIV incidence were analyzed as functions of demographic and behavioral variables. Risk factors were identified by estimating the relative risks (RR) and respective 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a Poisson regression model, univariate and multivariate analyses and risk factors analyses. 71 (25.5%) and 45 (16.2%) of the 278 participants were retained at the 6-month and 12-month follow-up visits respectively. The incidence rates of HIV-1 were 5.65 and 6.67 per 100 person years (PY) respectively. Both having received condoms and having received lubricant were negatively associated with HIV sero-conversion at the 12 months’ follow-up. Predictors associated with 12-month retention rate include Yangzhou residency (RR = 0.471, 95%CI: 0.275∼0.807, P = 0.006), having received condoms (RR = 0.065, 95%CI: 0.007∼0.572, P = 0.014), and having received VCTs (RR = 0.093, 95%CI: 0.010∼0.818, P = 0.032).

Conclusions/Significance

The incidence of HIV-1 among MSM in Yangzhou is relatively high and effective interventions are needed urgently. More attention should be focused on maintaining a higher retention rate.

Characterizing HIV transmission networks across the United States

BACKGROUND

Clinically, human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pol sequences are used to evaluate for drug resistance. These data can also be used to evaluate transmission networks and help describe factors associated with transmission risk.

METHODS

HIV-1 pol sequences from participants at 5 sites in the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort from 2000-2009 were analyzed for genetic relatedness. Only the first available sequence per participant was included. Inferred transmission networks ("clusters") were defined as ≥2 sequences with ≤1.5% genetic distance. Clusters including ≥3 patients ("networks") were evaluated for clinical and demographic associations.

RESULTS

Of 3697 sequences, 24% fell into inferred clusters: 155 clusters of 2 individuals ("dyads"), 54 clusters that included 3-14 individuals ("networks"), and 1 large cluster that included 336 individuals across all study sites. In multivariable analyses, factors associated with being in a cluster included not using antiretroviral (ARV) drugs at time of sampling (P < .001), sequence collected after 2004 (P < .001), CD4 cell count >350 cells/mL (P < .01), and viral load 10,000-100,000 copies/mL (P < .001) or >100,000 copies/mL (P < .001). In networks, women were more likely to cluster with other women (P < .001), and African Americans with other African Americans (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Molecular epidemiology can be applied to study HIV transmission networks in geographically and demographically diverse cohorts. Clustering was associated with lack of ARV use and higher viral load, implying transmission may be interrupted by earlier diagnosis and treatment. Observed female and African American networks reinforce the importance of diagnosis and prevention efforts targeted by sex and race.

Simple epidemiological dynamics explain phylogenetic clustering of HIV from patients with recent infection

Phylogenies of highly genetically variable viruses such as HIV-1 are potentially informative of epidemiological dynamics. Several studies have demonstrated the presence of clusters of highly related HIV-1 sequences, particularly among recently HIV-infected individuals, which have been used to argue for a high transmission rate during acute infection. Using a large set of HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences collected from men who have sex with men, we demonstrate that virus from recent infections tend to be phylogenetically clustered at a greater rate than virus from patients with chronic infection ('excess clustering') and also tend to cluster with other recent HIV infections rather than chronic, established infections ('excess co-clustering'), consistent with previous reports. To determine the role that a higher infectivity during acute infection may play in excess clustering and co-clustering, we developed a simple model of HIV infection that incorporates an early period of intensified transmission, and explicitly considers the dynamics of phylogenetic clusters alongside the dynamics of acute and chronic infected cases. We explored the potential for clustering statistics to be used for inference of acute stage transmission rates and found that no single statistic explains very much variance in parameters controlling acute stage transmission rates. We demonstrate that high transmission rates during the acute stage is not the main cause of excess clustering of virus from patients with early/acute infection compared to chronic infection, which may simply reflect the shorter time since transmission in acute infection. Higher transmission during acute infection can result in excess co-clustering of sequences, while the extent of clustering observed is most sensitive to the fraction of infections sampled.

Current practices of partner notification among MSM with HIV, gonorrhoea and syphilis in the Netherlands: an urgent need for improvement

BACKGROUND

Partner notification (PN) among individuals newly diagnosed with HIV/STI is seen as a vital tool to identify others at risk of infection. However, hardly any data are available on the effectiveness of PN on HIV/STI transmission in the Netherlands. This study aims to fill this gap by assessing current PN practices, case-finding effectiveness, and determinants of being notified among men having sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands.

METHODS

Nurses from five STI centers participated in a prospective pilot study on PN outcomes (partners being: at risk, notifiable, notified, and tested) for HIV/STI, by completing a newly developed PN registration form (PN database). PN outcomes including case-finding effectiveness (number of newly diagnosed cases in partners/number of partners being tested) for HIV, syphilis, and gonorrhoea were studied among MSM. Furthermore, the national STI database was analyzed to identify determinants of being notified. The number of infections that remained undetected was estimated based on these two databases.

RESULTS

In total 105 MSM, newly diagnosed with HIV/STI, reported 612 sexual partners at risk of whom 41% were notifiable and 31% were notified. Patient referral was the predominant PN method (90%). The overall case-finding percentage was 36% (HIV: 15-33%, gonorrhoea: 17-50% and syphilis: 4-11%). Case-finding percentages were lower in the national STI database: 21% (5%, 28%, 12%). Persons with one or more sexual partners, known HIV positives, and IDU were more likely to be notified to the STI clinic. Notified clients were more likely to have HIV/STI than unnotified clients (OR 1.7-2.5). Based on these two databases, an estimated 75 to 133 infections remained undetected (HIV: 12-90; gonorrhoea: 28-97; syphilis: 5-12 infections).

CONCLUSIONS

Partner notification among MSM in the Netherlands is suboptimal; an extensive number of STI/HIV infections remained undetected mainly due to unnotifiable partners. To enhance PN practices, combined and innovative PN interventions such as Internet-based PN will be implemented for hard-to-reach MSM and other risk groups.

HIV transmissions during seroconversion contribute significantly to new infections in men who have sex with men in Australia

Transmission of HIV from recently infected individuals contributes to the number of new cases of infection, but the extent to which it occurs from those who are unaware of their infection is not known. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on 209 cases of acute HIV subtype B infection detected between January 2005 and September 2010, most of whom (88%) were men who have sex with men. Only new cases with an evolving Western blot profile confirmed by detection of HIV RNA were included. Subjects whose known dates of seroconversion were within 1 month of at least one other phylogenetically linked case identified during the 6 years of the study were then examined to estimate the prevalence of onward transmission. Almost 30% of cases could have acquired their infection from another person undergoing seroconversion within the same month. Temporal increases in the number of phylogenetically related strains within several clusters were demonstrated during the study, although the rate of increase varied. Transmission of HIV from individuals undergoing seroconversion is an important contributor to the number of new infections identified every year and very likely occurs before they have knowledge of their infection. Clusters of related HIV strains can grow at a disconcerting rate, demonstrating that more focused public health efforts are required to minimize further HIV transmissions within sexual networks.

Molecular typing of the recently expanding subtype B HIV-1 epidemic in Romania: evidence for local spread among MSMs in Bucharest area

HIV-1 subtype B is predominant in Europe except in some countries from Eastern Europe which are characterized by a high prevalence of non-B subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs). Romania is a particular case: the HIV-1 epidemic started with subtype F1 which is still the most prevalent. Previous studies have shown an increasing prevalence of subtype B which is the second most frequent one among the newly diagnosed individuals, followed by subtype C and several CRFs as well as unique recombinant forms (URFs). Our objective was to analyze in detail the characteristics (way of dispersal, association with transmission risk groups) of the subtype B infections in Romania by means of phylogenetic analysis. Among all the individuals sampled during 2003-2010, 71 out of 1127 patients (6.3%) have been identified to be infected with subtype B strains. The most frequent route of infection identified in HIV-1 subtype B patients in Romania was MSM transmission (39.6%), followed by the heterosexual route (35.2%). Many of the patients acquired the infection abroad, mainly in Western European countries. Phylogenetic analysis indicated the existence of a local transmission network (monophyletic clade) including 14 patients, mainly MSM living in the Bucharest area. We estimate the origin of the local transmission network that dates at the beginning of the 90s; the introduction of the F1 and C subtypes occurred earlier. The rest of the sequences were intermixed with reference strains sampled across Europe suggesting that single infection were not followed by subsequent dispersal within the local population. Although HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Romania is recent, there is evidence for local spread among the MSMs, in addition to multiple introductions.

Recent HIV-1 infection contributes to the viral diffusion over the French territory with a recent increasing frequency

Objective

To analyse the contribution of primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection (PHI) to the French viral epidemic.

Methods

HIV-1 pol sequences included 987 PHI from the French ANRS PRIMO cohort between 1999 and 2010 and were analysed using a population-based phylogenetic approach. Clinical features, risk factors, sexual behaviour and drug resistance for clustered and nonclustered transmission events were ascertained.

Results

Viruses from 125 (12.7%) of PHI cosegregated into 56 transmission chains, with increasing frequency during the last years (10.2% before 2006 versus 15.2% of clusters in 2006–2010, p = 0.02). The mean number of patients per cluster was 2.44. Compared to unique PHI, clusters involved more often men, infected through homosexual intercourse, of young age, with a high number of casual sexual partnerships and frequent previous HIV serological tests. Resistant strains were found in 16.0% and 11.1% of clusters and unique PHI, respectively (p = 0.11). Overall, 34% (n = 19) clusters included patients followed in French regions far apart, involving 13 clusters with at least one Parisian patient.

Conclusions

PHIs are a significant source of onward transmission, especially in the MSM population. Recently infected people contribute to the spread of the viral epidemic throughout the French territory. Survey of transmitted drug resistance and behavioural characteristics of patients involved into clustered PHI may help to guide prevention and treatment interventions.

HIV testing and antiretroviral treatment strategies for prevention of HIV infection: impact on antiretroviral drug resistance

'Test and treat' is a strategy in which widespread screening for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is followed by immediate antiretroviral therapy for those testing positive, thereby potentially reducing infectiousness in larger cohorts of infected patients. However, there is a concern that test and treat could lead to increased the levels of transmissible drug-resistant HIV, especially if viral load and/or drug resistance is not routinely monitored. Reviews of the existing literature show that up to now, even in the absence of laboratory tests, drug resistance has not created major problems in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we discuss the current evidence for the effectiveness of a preventive test and treat approach and the challenges and implications for daily clinical practice and public health.

Transmission clustering drives the onward spread of the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Quebec

Phylodynamic analysis and epidemiologic data identified 3 patterns of spread of primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection (PHI) among men who have sex with men (2001-2009): 420 unique PHIs, 102 small clusters (2-4 PHIs per cluster, n = 280), and 46 large clusters (5-31 PHIs per cluster, n = 450). Large clusters disproportionately increased from 25.2% of PHIs in 2005 to 39.1% in 2009 (χ(2) = 33.9, P < .001). Scalar expansion of large clusters over 11 months (interquartile range, 3.5-25.5 months) correlated with cluster membership size (r(2) = 0.174, F = 4.424, P = .047). PHI cohort data revealed variations in social networks and risk behaviors among the 3 groups, suggesting the need for tailored prevention measures.

Dilemma of concepts and strategies for the prevention of spread of HIV in relation to human behavior, law and human rights

The new prevalence data regarding the estimated global number of human immunodeficiency virus positive (HIV+) cases, i.e., including people who are either aware or unaware of their HIV infection in 2010, lead many to wonder why the increase in incidence has reached today's unprecedented level and escalated within such a short time. This, in spite of prevention campaigns in countries affected by HIV/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) with their urgent messages aimed at preventing HIV transmission by promoting changes in individual's behavior. This article analyzes the background of the prevention strategies, in particular their political, social and legal concepts in terms of human rights, and reveals traits of human behavior not considered thus far. A radical reappraisal is necessary, at social and legislative levels, as well as options additional to current concepts. When ethical issues come up, they become blamed for outmoded moralistic positions. However, ignoring the reality has led to dire consequences from prioritizing individual human rights over society's collective need to prevent the spread of HIV.

A novel methodology for large-scale phylogeny partition

Understanding the determinants of virus transmission is a fundamental step for effective design of screening and intervention strategies to control viral epidemics. Phylogenetic analysis can be a valid approach for the identification of transmission chains, and very-large data sets can be analysed through parallel computation. Here we propose and validate a new methodology for the partition of large-scale phylogenies and the inference of transmission clusters. This approach, on the basis of a depth-first search algorithm, conjugates the evaluation of node reliability, tree topology and patristic distance analysis. The method has been applied to identify transmission clusters of a phylogeny of 11,541 human immunodeficiency virus-1 subtype B pol gene sequences from a large Italian cohort. Molecular transmission chains were characterized by means of different clinical/demographic factors, such as the interaction between male homosexuals and male heterosexuals. Our method takes an advantage of a flexible notion of transmission cluster and can become a general framework to analyse other epidemics.

Phylodynamics of HIV-1 from a phase III AIDS vaccine trial in Bangkok, Thailand

BACKGROUND

In 2003, a phase III placebo-controlled trial (VAX003) was completed in Bangkok, Thailand. Of the 2,546 individuals enrolled in the trial based on high risk for infection through injection drug use (IDU), we obtained clinical samples and HIV-1 sequence data (envelope glycoprotein gene gp120) from 215 individuals who became infected during the trial. Here, we used these data in combination with other publicly available gp120 sequences to perform a molecular surveillance and phylodynamic analysis of HIV-1 in Thailand.

METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS

Phylogenetic and population genetic estimators were used to assess HIV-1 gp120 diversity as a function of vaccination treatment, viral load (VL) and CD4(+) counts, to identify transmission clusters and to investigate the timescale and demographics of HIV-1 in Thailand. Three HIV-1 subtypes were identified: CRF01_AE (85% of the infections), subtype B (13%) and CRF15_AE (2%). The Bangkok IDU cohort showed more gp120 diversity than other Asian IDU cohorts and similar diversity to that observed in sexually infected individuals. Moreover, significant differences (P<0.02) in genetic diversity were observed in CRF01_AE IDU with different VL and CD4(+) counts. No phylogenetic structure was detected regarding any of the epidemiological and clinical factors tested, although high proportions (35% to 50%) of early infections fell into clusters, which suggests that transmission chains associated with acute infection play a key role on HIV-1 spread among IDU. CRF01_AE was estimated to have emerged in Thailand in 1984.5 (1983-1986), 3-6 years before the first recognition of symptomatic patients (1989). The relative genetic diversity of the HIV-1 population has remained high despite decreasing prevalence rates since the mid 1990s.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study and recent epidemiological reports indicate that HIV-1 is still a major threat in Thailand and suggest that HIV awareness and prevention needs to be strengthened to avoid AIDS resurgence.

Determinants of HIV-1 transmission in men who have sex with men: a combined clinical, epidemiological and phylogenetic approach

OBJECTIVES

To identify biological factors associated with HIV transmission in men who have sex with men (MSM).

DESIGN

A longitudinal phylogenetic analysis of HIV-1 from an MSM cohort, incorporating clinical and epidemiological data.

METHODS

Potential individuals were HIV-infected MSM attending a sexual health clinic between 2000 and 2006. Individuals were classified such that they could move from recent to chronic infection categories. HIV-1pol gene sequences were obtained from plasma virus or proviral DNA and clusters estimated by maximum likelihood and conservative genetic distance differences. The single most likely transmitter generating each recent infection was ascertained and risk factors around time of likely transmission explored using Poisson regression modelling.

RESULTS

Out of 1144 HIV-infected MSM, pol sequence data were obtained for 859 (75%); 159 out of 859 (19%) were recently HIV infected at diagnosis. A single most likely transmitter was identified for 41 out of 159 (26%), of which 11 were recently infected (27%) and 30 chronically infected. Factors associated with transmission in multivariable analysis were: younger age {rate ratio per 5 years older 0.68 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.86], P=0.0009}, higher viral load [rate ratio per log higher 1.61 (95% CI 1.15-2.25), P=0.005], recent infection [rate ratio 3.88 (95% CI 1.76-8.55), P=0.0008] and recent sexually transmitted disease [rate ratio 5.32 (95% CI 2.51-11.29), P=0.0001]. HAART was highly protective in a univariable model, RR 0.14 (95% CI 0.07-0.27, P=0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Onward transmission of HIV among MSM is significantly associated with recent infection, sexually transmitted diseases and higher viral load, and reduced by effective HAART. The majority of new infections appear to occur from individuals whose infection was undiagnosed at the time of transmission.