Mutualistic coevolution and community diversity favour persistence in metacommunities under environmental changes

Linking local to regional ecological and evolutionary processes is key to understand the response of Earth's biodiversity to environmental changes. Here we integrate evolution and mutualistic coevolution in a model of metacommunity dynamics and use numerical simulations to understand how coevolution can shape species distribution and persistence in landscapes varying in space and time. Our simulations show that coevolution and species richness can synergistically shape distribution patterns by increasing colonization and reducing extinction of populations in metacommunities. Although conflicting selective pressures emerging from mutualisms may increase mismatches with the local environment and the rate of local extinctions, coevolution increases trait matching among mutualists at the landscape scale, counteracting local maladaptation and favouring colonization and range expansions. Our results show that by facilitating colonization, coevolution can also buffer the effects of environmental changes, preventing species extinctions and the collapse of metacommunities. Our findings reveal the mechanisms whereby coevolution can favour persistence under environmental changes and highlight that these positive effects are greater in more diverse systems that retain landscape connectivity.

Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability

Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.

Genome assembly and isoform analysis of a highly heterozygous New Zealand fisheries species, the tarakihi (Nemadactylus macropterus)

Although being some of the most valuable and heavily exploited wild organisms, few fisheries species have been studied at the whole-genome level. This is especially the case in New Zealand, where genomics resources are urgently needed to assist fisheries management. Here, we generated 55 Gb of short Illumina reads (92× coverage) and 73 Gb of long Nanopore reads (122×) to produce the first genome assembly of the marine teleost tarakihi [Nemadactylus macropterus (Forster, 1801)], a highly valuable fisheries species in New Zealand. An additional 300 Mb of Iso-Seq reads were obtained to assist in gene annotation. The final genome assembly was 568 Mb long with an N50 of 3.37 Mb. The genome completeness was high, with 97.8% of complete Actinopterygii Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Orthologs. Heterozygosity values estimated through k-mer counting (1.00%) and bi-allelic SNPs (0.64%) were high compared with the same values reported for other fishes. Iso-Seq analysis recovered 91,313 unique transcripts from 15,515 genes (mean ratio of 5.89 transcripts per gene), and the most common alternative splicing event was intron retention. This highly contiguous genome assembly and the isoform-resolved transcriptome will provide a useful resource to assist the study of population genomics and comparative eco-evolutionary studies in teleosts and related organisms.

Land-use and climate risk assessment for Earth's remaining wilderness

Earth's wilderness areas are reservoirs of genetic information and carbon storage systems, and are vital to reducing extinction risks. Retaining the conservation value of these areas is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals; however, climate and land-use risk can undermine their ability to provide these functions. The extent to which wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by these drivers has not previously been quantified. Using climate and land-use change during baseline (1971-2005) and future (2016-2050) periods, we estimate that these stressors within wilderness areas will increase by ca. 60% and 39%, respectively, under a scenario of high emission and land-use change (SSP5-RCP8.5). Nearly half (49%) of all wilderness areas could experience substantial climate change by 2050 under this scenario, potentially limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. Notable climate (>5 km year^-1) and land-use (>0.25 km year^-1) changes are expected to occur more rapidly in the unprotected wilderness, including the edges of the Amazonian wilderness, Northern Russia, and Central Africa, which support unique assemblages of species and are critical for the preservation of biodiversity. However, an alternative scenario of sustainable development (SSP1-RCP2.6) would attenuate the projected climate velocity and land-use instability by 54% and 6%, respectively. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving the remaining intact natural ecosystems can help fortify these bastions of biodiversity.

Decadal migration phenology of a long-lived Arctic icon keeps pace with climate change

Animals migrate in response to seasonal environments, to reproduce, to benefit from resource pulses, or to avoid fluctuating hazards. Although climate change is predicted to modify migration, only a few studies to date have demonstrated phenological shifts in marine mammals. In the Arctic, marine mammals are considered among the most sensitive to ongoing climate change due to their narrow habitat preferences and long life spans. Longevity may prove an obstacle for species to evolutionarily respond. For species that exhibit high site fidelity and strong associations with migration routes, adjusting the timing of migration is one of the few recourses available to respond to a changing climate. Here, we demonstrate evidence of significant delays in the timing of narwhal autumn migrations with satellite tracking data spanning 21 y from the Canadian Arctic. Measures of migration phenology varied annually and were explained by sex and climate drivers associated with ice conditions, suggesting that narwhals are adopting strategic migration tactics. Male narwhals were found to lead the migration out of the summering areas, while females, potentially with dependent young, departed later. Narwhals are remaining longer in their summer areas at a rate of 10 d per decade, a similar rate to that observed for climate-driven sea ice loss across the region. The consequences of altered space use and timing have yet to be evaluated but will expose individuals to increasing natural changes and anthropogenic activities on the summering areas.

Rapid restructuring of the odontocete community in an ocean warming hotspot

Cetaceans are important consumers in marine ecosystems, but few studies have quantified their climate responses. The rapid, directional warming occurring in the Northeast United States (NEUS) provides a unique opportunity to assess climate impacts on cetaceans. We used stranding data to examine changes to the distribution and relative abundance of odontocetes from 1996 to 2020 in both the NEUS and the Southeast United States (SEUS), which is not warming. We conducted simulations to determine the number of stranding events needed to detect a distributional shift for each species given the speed of the shift and the spatial variability in strandings. We compared observed shifts to climate velocity. Smaller sample sizes were needed to detect more rapid poleward shifts, particularly for species with low spatial variability. Poleward shifts were observed in all species with sufficient sample sizes, and shifts were faster than predicted by climate velocity. For species whose trailing edge of distribution occurred in the NEUS, the center of distribution approached the northern limit of the NEUS and relative abundance declined through time, suggesting shifts north out of US waters. The relative abundance of warm water species in the stranding record increased significantly in the NEUS while that of cool water species declined significantly as their distributions shifted north out of the NEUS. Changes in the odontocete community were less apparent in the SEUS, highlighting the importance of regional warming. Observed poleward shifts and changes in species composition suggest a reorganization of the odontocete community in the NEUS in response to rapid warming. We suggest that strandings provide a key dataset for understanding climate impacts on cetaceans given limitations of survey effort and modeling approaches for predicting distributions under rapidly changing conditions. Our findings portend marked changes to the distribution of highly mobile consumer species across international boundaries under continued warming.

Faster velocity changes in the near-surface soil freeze state in croplands than in forests across northeast China from 1979 to 2020

Climate warming has significantly changed the near-surface soil freeze state, significantly impacting terrestrial ecosystems and regional agroforestry production. As Northeast China (NEC) is highly sensitive to climate change, this study introduces the concept of velocity to analyze the spatial pattern of frozen days (F_DAY), onset date of soil freeze (F_ON), offset date of soil freeze (F_OFF), and number of soil freeze/thaw cycles in spring (FT_C) in NEC from 1979 to 2020. We observed that the velocity changes of F_DAY, F_ON, and FT_C in croplands were significantly higher than those in forests (difference >1 km yr^-1), with the fastest velocity changes found in the cropland of the Songnen Plain. The highest velocity of F_OFF was found in the forests of the Greater Khingan Range. In most study areas (>60%), the isoline of F_DAY/F_ON/F_OFF/FT_C showed a northward movement. The isoline of F_DAY/F_ON/F_OFF/FT_C moved in the cold direction in each cropland region (Sanjiang, Songnen, and Liaohe River Plains) and forest regions (Greater Khingan and Lesser Khingan Ranges, and the Changbai Mountains). The results of the quantitative analysis indicate that air temperature (T_A) had a more significant effect on the velocity change of F_DAY and F_ON in cropland, whereas snowpack is the dominant factor in forests. In both forests and croplands, the main factor affecting the velocity of F_OFF was snowpack, and T_A mainly affected the FT_C. This study is significant for formulating regional climate change countermeasures and maintaining ecological security in cold regions.

Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards

Crocodile lizards (Shinisaurus crocodilurus) are an endangered, 'living fossil' reptile from a monophyletic family and therefore, a high priority for conservation. We constructed climatic models to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of crocodile lizards for the period 2000 to 2100 and determined the key environmental factors that affect the dispersal of this endangered species. For the construction of climatic models, we used 985 presence-only data points and 6 predictor variables which showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.974). The three top-ranked factors predicting crocodile lizard distribution were precipitation of the wettest month (bio13, 37.1%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19, 17.9%), and temperature seasonality (bio4, 14.3%). Crocodile lizards were, just as they are now, widely distributed in the north of Guangdong Province in China and Quảng Ninh Province in Vietnam at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Since the LGM, there has been an increase in suitable habitats, particularly in east-central Guangxi Province, China. Under future global warming scenarios, the potential habitat for crocodile lizards is expected to decrease significantly in the next 100 years. Under the most optimistic scenario, only 7.35% to 6.54% of suitable habitat will remain, and under the worst climatic scenario, only 8.34% to 0.86% of suitable habitat will remain. Models for no dispersal and limited dispersal showed that all crocodile lizards would lose habitat as temperatures increase. Our work contributes to an increased understanding of the current and future spatial distribution of the species, supporting practical management and conservation plans.

Global warming generates predictable extinctions of warm- and cold-water marine benthic invertebrates via thermal habitat loss

Anthropogenic global warming is redistributing marine life and may threaten tropical benthic invertebrates with several potential extinction mechanisms. The net impact of climate change on geographical extinction risk nevertheless remains uncertain. Evidence of widespread climate-driven extinctions and of potentially unidentified mechanisms exists in the fossil record. We quantify organism extinction risk across thermal habitats, estimated by paleoclimate reconstructions, over the past 300 million years. Extinction patterns at seven known events of rapid global warming (hyperthermals) differ significantly from typical patterns, resembling those driven by global geometry under simulated global warming. As isotherms move poleward with warming, the interaction between the geometry of the globe and the temperature-latitude relationship causes an uneven loss of thermal habitat and a bimodal latitudinal distribution of extinctions. Genera with thermal optima warmer than ~21°C show raised extinction odds, while extinction odds continually increase for genera with optima below ~11°C. Genera preferring intermediate temperatures generally have no additional extinction risk during hyperthermals, except under extreme conditions as the end-Permian mass extinction. Widespread present-day climate-driven range shifts indicate that occupancy loss is already underway. Given the most-likely projections of modern warming, our model, validated by seven past hyperthermal events, indicates that sustained warming has the potential to annihilate cold-water habitat and its endemic species completely within centuries.

Assessing cumulative impacts of human-induced pressures on reef and sandbank habitats and associated biotopes in the northeastern Baltic Sea

Marine ecosystems are impacted by multiple individual and combined anthropogenic pressures. We used meta-analysis and data-driven PlanWise4Blue decision support tool to predict individual and combined impacts of wind park development, nutrient loading, and invasive species on vulnerable reef and sandbank habitats and associated species-specific biotopes in the northeastern Baltic Sea. Many impacts were not statistically significant due to large between-study variance in effect sizes. Wind park development is predicted to have less impact than nutrient loading and invasive species. Predicted impacts varied greatly among larger-scale habitats versus smaller-scale biotopes with impacts being generally stronger at small scale. Excessive nutrient loading damages algae-based biotopes, the presence of nonnative species has substantial negative impacts on larger-scale reef and sandbank habitats. The results showed that a 25 % reduction of nutrient loading improves all examined benthic habitats, whereas nonnative species, which cannot be removed from ecosystems, pose a significant threat to these habitats.

Aggregate population-level models informed by genetics predict more suitable habitat than traditional species-level model across the range of a widespread riparian tree

Identifying and predicting how species ranges will shift in response to climate change is paramount for conservation and restoration. Ecological niche models are the most common method used to estimate potential distributions of species; however, they traditionally omit knowledge of intraspecific variation that can allow populations to respond uniquely to change. Here, we aim to test how population X environment relationships influence predicted suitable geographic distributions by comparing aggregated population-level models with species-level model predictions of suitable habitat within population ranges and across the species’ range. We also test the effect of two variable selection methods on these predictions–both addressing the possibility of local adaptation: Models were built with (a) a common set, and number, of predictors and, (b) a unique combination and number of predictors specific to each group’s training extent. Our study addresses the overarching hypothesis that populations have unique environmental niches, and specifically that (1) species-level models predict more suitable habitat within the ranges of genetic populations than individual models built from those groups, particularly when compared models are built with the same set of environmental predictors; and (2) aggregated genetic population models predict more suitable habitat across the species’ range than the species-level model, an = d this difference will increase when models are trained with individualized predictors. We found the species models predicted more habitat within population ranges for two of three genetic groups regardless of variable selection, and that aggregated population models predicted more habitat than species’ models, but that individualized predictors increased this difference. Our study emphasizes the extent to which changes to model predictions depend on the inclusion of genetic information and on the type and selection of predictors. Results from these modeling decisions can have broad implications for predicting population-level ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change.

Overfishing species on the move may burden seafood provision in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean

Climate and fisheries interact, often synergistically, and may challenge marine ecosystem functioning and management, along with seafood provision. Here, we spatially combine highly resolved assessments of climate-driven changes in optimal environmental conditions (i.e., optimal habitats) for the pelagic fish community with available industrial fishery data to identify highly impacted inshore areas in the Central and Southern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, optimal habitat availability remained stable or decreased over recent decades for most commercial, small and medium size pelagic species, particularly in low-latitude regions. We also find a worrying overlap of these areas with fishing hotspots. Nations near the Equator (particularly along the African coast) have been doubly impacted by climate and industrial fisheries, with ultimate consequences on fish stocks and ecosystems as a whole. Management and conservation actions are urgently required to prevent species depletions and ensure seafood provisioning in these highly impacted, and often socioeconomically constrained areas. These actions may include redistributing fishing pressure and reducing it in local areas where climate forcing is particularly high, balancing resource exploitation and the conservation of marine life-supporting services in the face of climate change.

Effects of decadal climate variability on spatiotemporal distribution of Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna population

Spatial variations in tuna population and abundance are strongly linked to large-scale climate fluctuations, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). However, the mechanisms underlying the association of climate indices with yellowfin tuna (YFT) abundance and habitat preference remain unclear. We analysed long-term longline fishery data for YFT and oceanic climate variability index data for 1971–2018. The standardized catch per unit effort (CPUE) of Indo-Pacific Ocean YFT was higher during negative AMO and positive PDO phases. In tropical Pacific Ocean, the trend of YFT habitat preference exhibited seesaw patterns because of the distinct environmental factors influenced by the PDO phase. The PDO changed the environmental parameters throughout the tropical Indian Ocean such that the habitat preference of YFT remained consistent throughout. However, the variations in habitat suitability did not correspond to the distribution or standardized CPUE of YFT throughout the Pacific Ocean during AMO events. Moreover, the changes in habitat suitability had a positive periodicity of 8–16 years with AMO in the Indian Ocean, but revealed opposite trends with the distribution or standardized CPUE of YFT. Our results provide sufficient information to distinguish the variations between PDO phase changing and YFT standardized CPUE/ habitat preference. Furthermore, the AMO phase shift period 60–100 years longer than that of the PDO (20–30 years), and models employing time series of fishery and environmental data must be extended the time period of our study to make the AMO match the fishery data more complete.

4D marine conservation networks: Combining 3D prioritization of present and future biodiversity with climatic refugia

Given the accelerating rate of biodiversity loss, the need to prioritize marine areas for protection represents a major conservation challenge. The three-dimensionality of marine life and ecosystems is an inherent element of complexity for setting spatial conservation plans. Yet, the confidence of any recommendation largely depends on shifting climate, which triggers a global redistribution of biodiversity, suggesting the inclusion of time as a fourth dimension. Here, we developed a depth-specific prioritization analysis to inform the design of protected areas, further including metrics of climate-driven changes in the ocean. Climate change was captured in this analysis by considering the projected future distribution of >2000 benthic and pelagic species inhabiting the Mediterranean Sea, combined with climatic stability and heterogeneity metrics of the seascape. We identified important areas based on both biological and climatic criteria, where conservation focus should be given in priority when designing a three-dimensional, climate-smart protected area network. We detected spatially concise, conservation priority areas, distributed around the basin, that protected marine areas almost equally across all depth zones. Our approach highlights the importance of deep sea zones as priority areas to meet conservation targets for future marine biodiversity, while suggesting that spatial prioritization schemes, that focus on a static two-dimensional distribution of biodiversity data, might fail to englobe both the vertical properties of species distributions and the fine and larger-scale impacts associated with climate change.

Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change

Understanding how environmental and climate change can alter habitat overlap of marine predators has great value for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter‐specific overlap among three marine predators: Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), and harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) under contemporary and future conditions. Location data (>200 tagged individuals) were collected in the southwestern region of the Baltic Sea; one of the fastest‐warming semi‐enclosed seas in the world. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to estimate changes in total area size and overlap of species‐specific habitat suitability between 1997–2020 and 2091–2100. Predictor variables included environmental and climate‐sensitive oceanographic conditions in the area. Sea‐level rise, sea surface temperature, and salinity data were taken from representative concentration pathways [RCPs] scenarios 6.0 and 8.5 to forecast potential climate change effects. Model output suggested that habitat suitability of Baltic gray seals will decline over space and time, driven by changes in sea surface salinity and a loss of currently available haulout sites following sea‐level rise in the future. A similar, although weaker, effect was observed for harbor seals, while suitability of habitat for harbor porpoises was predicted to increase slightly over space and time. Inter‐specific overlap in highly suitable habitats was also predicted to increase slightly under RCP scenario 6.0 when compared to contemporary conditions, but to disappear under RCP scenario 8.5. Our study suggests that marine predators in the southwestern Baltic Sea may respond differently to future climatic conditions, leading to divergent shifts in habitat suitability that are likely to decrease inter‐specific overlap over time and space. We conclude that climate change can lead to a marked redistribution of area use by marine predators in the region, which may influence local food‐web dynamics and ecosystem functioning.

Warming northward shifting southern limits of the iconic temperate seagrass (Zostera marina)

Global warming can shift the range edges of numerous species poleward. Here, eelgrass distribution was reinvestigated at its southern limits on the eastern coast of China, which indicated that there has been a northward shift in the southern limit of Z. marina. To determine if regional warming resulted in a northward shift in suitable eelgrass habitats, sixteen transplantations of adult eelgrass shoots and seeds at the historical southern distribution limit of eelgrass were conducted between 2016 and 2021. The results showed that high water temperatures in summer had negative effects on eelgrass growth, and directly triggered shoot mortality during 2016–2018. Under heat stress, antioxidant enzyme activity was initially increased, but then decreased under more stressful heat conditions; and the HSP70 protein and its molecular chaperone protein were highly expressed under heat stress. These results demonstrated that suitable eelgrass habitat was now located further north along the eastern coast of China.

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High temperatures trigger seagrass (Zostera marina L.) restoration failure

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None seedlings and adult shoots survived the first or second summer

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Over-summering shoots with lower density, height, and rhizome diameter

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Warming northward shifting eelgrass habitat range along the eastern coast of China

A framework to understand the role of biological time in responses to fluctuating climate drivers

Understanding biological responses to environmental fluctuations (e.g. heatwaves) is a critical goal in ecology. Biological responses (e.g. survival) are usually measured with respect to different time reference frames, i.e. at specific chronological times (e.g. at specific dates) or biological times (e.g. at reproduction). Measuring responses on the biological frame is central to understand how environmental fluctuation modifies fitness and population persistence. We use a framework, based on partial differential equations (PDEs) to explore how responses to the time scale and magnitude of fluctuations in environmental variables (= drivers) depend on the choice of reference frame. The PDEs and simulations enabled us to identify different components, responsible for the phenological and eco-physiological effects of each driver on the response. The PDEs also highlight the conditions when the choice of reference frame affects the sensitivity of the response to a driver and the type of join effect of two drivers (additive or interactive) on the response. Experiments highlighted the importance of studying how environmental fluctuations affect biological time keeping mechanisms, to develop mechanistic models. Our main result, that the effect of the environmental fluctuations on the response depends on the scale used to measure time, applies to both field and laboratory conditions. In addition, our approach, applied to experimental conditions, can helps us quantify how biological time mediates the response of organisms to environmental fluctuations.

Successive extreme climatic events lead to immediate, large-scale, and diverse responses from fish in the Arctic

The warming trend of the Arctic is punctuated by several record-breaking warm years with very low sea ice concentrations. The nature and reversibility of marine ecosystem responses to these multiple extreme climatic events (ECEs) are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the ecological signatures of three successive bottom temperature maxima concomitant with surface ECEs between 2004 and 2017 in the Barents Sea across spatial and organizational scales. We observed community-level redistributions of fish concurrent with ECEs at the scale of the whole Barents Sea. Three groups, characterized by different sets of traits describing their capacity to cope with short-term perturbations, reacted with different timing and intensity to each ECE. Arctic species co-occurred more frequently with large predators and incoming boreal taxa during ECEs, potentially affecting food web structures and functional diversity, accelerating the impacts of long-term climate change. On the species level, responses were highly diversified, with different ECEs impacting different species, and species responses (expansion, geographical shift) varying from one ECE to another, despite the environmental perturbations being similar. Past ECEs impacts, with potential legacy effects, lagged responses, thresholds, and interactions with the underlying warming pressure, could constantly set up new initial conditions that drive the unique ecological signature of each ECE. These results highlight the complexity of ecological reactions to multiple ECEs and give prominence to several sources of process uncertainty in the predictions of climate change impact and risk for ecosystem management. Long-term monitoring and studies to characterize the vertical extent of each ECE are necessary to statistically link demersal species and environmental spatial-temporal patterns. In the future, regular monitoring will be crucial to detect early signals of change and understand the determinism of ECEs, but we need to adapt our models and management to better integrate risk and stochasticity from the complex impacts of global change.

Unifying climate change biology across realms and taxa

A major challenge in modern biology is to understand extinction risk from climate change across all realms. Recent research has revealed that physiological tolerance, behavioral thermoregulation, and small elevation shifts are dominant coping strategies on land, whereas large-scale latitudinal shifts are more important in the ocean. Freshwater taxa may face the highest global extinction risks. Nevertheless, some species in each realm face similar risks because of shared adaptive, dispersal, or physiological tolerances and abilities. Taking a cross-realm perspective offers unique research opportunities because confounding physical factors in one realm are often disaggregated in another realm. Cross-realm, across taxa, and other forms of climate change biology synthesis are needed to advance our understanding of emergent patterns of risk across all life.

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia

Anthropogenic climate change has caused widespread loss of species biodiversity and ecosystem productivity across the globe, particularly on tropical coral reefs. Predicting the future vulnerability of reef-building corals, the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems, is crucial for cost-effective conservation planning in the Anthropocene. In this study, we combine regional population genetic connectivity and seascape analyses to explore patterns of genetic offset (the mismatch of gene-environmental associations under future climate conditions) in Acropora digitifera across 12 degrees of latitude in Western Australia. Our data revealed a pattern of restricted gene flow and limited genetic connectivity among geographically distant reef systems. Environmental association analyses identified a suite of loci strongly associated with the regional temperature variation. These loci helped forecast future genetic offset in gradient forest and generalised dissimilarity models. These analyses predicted pronounced differences in the response of different reef systems in Western Australia to rising temperatures. Under the most optimistic future warming scenario (RCP 2.6), we predicted a general pattern of increasing genetic offset with latitude. Under the extreme climate scenario (RCP 8.5 in 2090-2100), coral populations at the Ningaloo World Heritage Area were predicted to experience a higher mismatch between current allele frequencies and those required to cope with local environmental change, compared to populations in the inshore Kimberley region. The study suggests complex and spatially heterogeneous patterns of climate-change vulnerability in coral populations across Western Australia, reinforcing the notion that regionally tailored conservation efforts will be most effective at managing coral reef resilience into the future.

A Review on Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystem Services in the Mediterranean Basin

The Mediterranean Basin covers more than 2 million square kilometres and is surrounded by three continents: Africa, Asia and Europe. The Basin that is rich in biodiversity has tilted towards warmer and drier conditions over the last decades. The emerging climatic conditions particularly the increase in the number of climate extremes are bringing new threats and risks that will exacerbate existing pressures. The present study thoroughly reviewed the recent scientific literature and synthesized existing body of knowledge on the impacts (direct and indirect) of climate change on forest ecosystem services in the Mediterranean Basin. Despite many uncertainties about climate change in the Basin, there appears to be a consensus among a number of studies that climate change is having and will continue to have mostly negative impacts on the Mediterranean forest ecosystem services (wood and non-wood forest products, water resources, carbon storage and recreation and tourism) with possible substantial impacts in the future. Further, evidence is mounting that climate-induced natural disturbances (fires, insect pests, and pathogenic diseases) are becoming frequent and severe. The Mediterranean plants are known for their resilience to natural disturbances. However, the novel climatic conditions may exceed their resilience and alter the ecosystem services. Therefore, there is the need to mitigate the challenges posed by climate change and adapt forest management practices to impending changes to sustain the forest ecosystem services.

Maximization of fitness by phenological and phenotypic plasticity in range expanding rabbitfish (Siganidae)

Global warming is modifying the phenology, life‐history traits and biogeography of species around the world. Evidence of these effects have increased over recent decades; however, we still have a poor understanding of the possible outcomes of their interplay across global climatic gradients, hindering our ability to accurately predict the consequences of climate change in populations and ecosystems.

We examined the effect that changes in biogeography can have on the life‐history traits of two of the most successful range‐extending fish species in the world: the tropical rabbitfishes Siganus fuscescens and Siganus rivulatus. Both species have established abundant populations at higher latitudes in the northern and southern hemispheres and have been identified as important ecological engineers with the potential to alter the community structure of seaweed forests (Laminariales and Fucales) in temperate regions.

Life‐history trait information from across their global distribution was compiled from the published literature and meta‐analyses were conducted to assess changes in (i) the onset and duration of reproductive periods, (ii) size at maturity, (iii) fecundity, (iv) growth rates, (v) maximum body sizes and (vi) longevity in populations at the leading edge of range expansion in relation to sea surface temperature and primary productivity (a common proxy for nutritional resource levels).

Populations at highest latitudes had shortened their reproductive periods and reduced growth rates, taking longer to reach sexual maturity and maximum sizes, but compensated this with higher fecundity per length class and longer lifespans than populations in warmer environments. Low primary productivity and temperature in the Mediterranean Sea resulted in lower growth rates and body sizes for S. rivulatus, but also lower length at maturity, increasing life‐time reproductive output.

The results suggest that plasticity in the phenology and life‐history traits of range‐expanding species would be important to enhance their fitness in high latitude environments, facilitating their persistence and possible further poleward expansions. Quantifying the magnitude and direction of these responses can improve our understanding and ability to forecast species redistributions and its repercussions in the functioning of temperate ecosystems.

Time to Move On: The Role of Greenness in Africa and Temperatures at a Mediterranean Stopover Site in Migration Decision of Long-Distance Migratory Passerines

Many migratory species have advanced their migration timing as a response to advanced breeding conditions. While data on arrival timing to breeding grounds in Europe is plentiful, information from the African departure sites are scarce. Here we investigated changes in arrival timing of four long-distance migratory passerines to a stopover site in Israel and potential links to Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) at the species-specific African pre-departure sites and local temperatures at the stopover site. We found that Lesser whitethroat (Curruca curruca) and Eastern Bonelli’s warbler (Phylloscopus orientalis) advanced arrival to the stopover site. The arrival timing of Thrush nightingale (Luscinia luscinia) and Olive-tree warbler (Hippolais olivetorum) did not change and was associated with mean EVI at the pre-departure site in Africa during the pre-migratory period. Additionally, temperatures at the stopover site affected the arrival timing of Lesser whitethroat only. This is probably because this species breed at higher northern latitudes and fine-tune their migration timing to match local conditions. Our results show that spring migration can be influenced by exogenous cues such as weather condition and food availability, and the level of response is species-specific. Moreover, some species show flexibility and fine-tuned migration speed in response to local conditions en route. While flexibility seems advantageous, dependence on multiple sites with varying conditions may ultimately limit advanced arrival to the breeding ground and result in mismatch with optimal conditions.

Mosaics of climatic stress across species' ranges: tradeoffs cause adaptive evolution to limits of climatic tolerance

Studies in birds and trees show climatic stresses distributed across species' ranges, not only at range limits. Here, new analyses from the butterfly Euphydryas editha reveal mechanisms generating these stresses: geographic mosaics of natural selection, acting on tradeoffs between climate adaptation and fitness traits, cause some range-central populations to evolve to limits of climatic tolerance, while others remain resilient. In one ecotype, selection for predator avoidance drives evolution to limits of thermal tolerance. In a second ecotype, the endangered Bay Checkerspot, selection on fecundity drives evolution to the climate-sensitive limit of ability to complete development within the lifespans of ephemeral hosts, causing routinely high mortality from insect–host phenological asynchrony. The tradeoff between maternal fecundity and offspring mortality generated similar values of fitness on different dates, partly explaining why fecundity varied by more than an order of magnitude. Evolutionary response to the tradeoff rendered climatic variability the main driver of Bay Checkerspot dynamics, and increases in this variability, associated with climate change, were a key factor behind permanent extinction of a protected metapopulation. Finally, we discuss implications for conservation planning of our finding that adaptive evolution can reduce population-level resilience to climate change and generate geographic mosaics of climatic stress.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’.

Local adaptation in a marine foundation species: Implications for resilience to future global change

Environmental change is multidimensional, with local anthropogenic stressors and global climate change interacting to differentially impact populations throughout a species' geographic range. Within species, the spatial distribution of phenotypic variation and its causes (i.e., local adaptation or plasticity) will determine species' adaptive capacity to respond to a changing environment. However, comparatively less is known about the spatial scale of adaptive differentiation among populations and how patterns of local adaptation might drive vulnerability to global change stressors. To test whether fine-scale (2-12 km) mosaics of environmental stress can cause adaptive differentiation in a marine foundation species, eelgrass (Zostera marina), we conducted a three-way reciprocal transplant experiment spanning the length of Tomales Bay, CA. Our results revealed strong home-site advantage in growth and survival for all three populations. In subsequent common garden experiments and feeding assays, we showed that countergradients in temperature, light availability, and grazing pressure from an introduced herbivore contribute to differential performance among populations consistent with local adaptation. Our findings highlight how local-scale mosaics in environmental stressors can increase phenotypic variation among neighboring populations, potentially increasing species resilience to future global change. More specifically, we identified a range-center eelgrass population that is pre-adapted to extremely warm temperatures similar to those experienced by low-latitude range-edge populations of eelgrass, demonstrating how reservoirs of heat-tolerant phenotypes may already exist throughout a species range. Future work on predicting species resilience to global change should incorporate potential buffering effects of local-scale population differentiation and promote a phenotypic management approach to species conservation.

Persistent thermally driven shift in the functional trait structure of herbivorous fishes: Evidence of top-down control on the rebound potential of temperate seaweed forests?

Extreme climatic events can reshape the functional structure of ecological communities, potentially altering ecological interactions and ecosystem functioning. While these shifts have been widely documented, evidence of their persistence and potential flow-on effects on ecosystem structure following relaxation of extreme events remains limited. Here, we investigate changes in the functional trait structure - encompassing dimensions of resource use, thermal affinity, and body size - of herbivorous fishes in a temperate reef system that experienced an extreme marine heatwave (MHW) and subsequent return to cool conditions. We quantify how changes in the trait structure modified the nature and intensity of herbivory-related functions (macroalgae, turf, and sediment removal), and explored the potential flow-on effects on the recovery dynamics of macroalgal foundation species. The trait structure of the herbivorous fish assemblage shifted as a result of the MHW, from dominance of cool-water browsing species to increased evenness in the distribution of abundance among temperate and tropical guilds supporting novel herbivory roles (i.e. scraping, cropping, and sediment sucking). Despite the abundance of tropical herbivorous fishes and intensity of herbivory-related functions declined following a period of cooling after the MHW, the underlying trait structure displayed limited recovery. Concomitantly, algal assemblages displayed a lack of recovery of the formerly dominant foundational species, the kelp Ecklonia radiata, transitioning to an alternative state dominated by turf and Sargassum spp. Our study demonstrates a legacy effect of an extreme MHW and exemplified the value of monitoring phenotypic (trait mediated) changes in the nature of core ecosystem processes to predict and adapt to the future configurations of changing reef ecosystems.

Climate change in the coastal ocean: shifts in pelagic productivity and regionally diverging dynamics of coastal ecosystems

Climate change has led to intensification and poleward migration of the Southeastern Pacific Anticyclone, forcing diverging regions of increasing, equatorward and decreasing, poleward coastal phytoplankton productivity along the Humboldt Upwelling Ecosystem, and a transition zone around 31° S. Using a 20-year dataset of barnacle larval recruitment and adult abundances, we show that striking increases in larval arrival have occurred since 1999 in the region of higher productivity, while slower but significantly negative trends dominate poleward of 30° S, where years of recruitment failure are now common. Rapid increases in benthic adults result from fast recruitment-stock feedbacks following increased recruitment. Slower population declines in the decreased productivity region may result from aging but still reproducing adults that provide temporary insurance against population collapses. Thus, in this region of the ocean where surface waters have been cooling down, climate change is transforming coastal pelagic and benthic ecosystems through altering primary productivity, which seems to propagate up the food web at rates modulated by stock-recruitment feedbacks and storage effects. Slower effects of downward productivity warn us that poleward stocks may be closer to collapse than current abundances may suggest.

Smooth velocity fields for tracking climate change

Describing the spatial velocity of climate change is essential to assessing the challenge of natural and human systems to follow its pace by adapting or migrating sufficiently fast. We propose a fully-determined approach, “MATCH”, to calculate a realistic and continuous velocity field of any climate parameter, without the need for ad hoc assumptions. We apply this approach to the displacement of isotherms predicted by global and regional climate models between 1950 and 2100 under the IPCC-AR5 RCP 8.5 emission scenario, and show that it provides detailed velocity patterns especially at the regional scale. This method thus favors comparisons between models as well as the analysis of regional or local features. Furthermore, the trajectories obtained using the MATCH approach are less sensitive to inter-annual fluctuations and therefore allow us to introduce a trajectory regularity index, offering a quantitative perspective on the discussion of climate sinks and sources.

The shadow model: how and why small choices in spatially explicit species distribution models affect predictions

The use of species distribution models (SDMs) has rapidly increased over the last decade, driven largely by increasing observational evidence of distributional shifts of terrestrial and aquatic populations. These models permit, for example, the quantification of range shifts, the estimation of species co-occurrence, and the association of habitat to species distribution and abundance. The increasing complexity of contemporary SDMs presents new challenges-as the choices among modeling options increase, it is essential to understand how these choices affect model outcomes. Using a combination of original analysis and literature review, we synthesize the effects of three common model choices in semi-parametric predictive process species distribution modeling: model structure, spatial extent of the data, and spatial scale of predictions. To illustrate the effects of these choices, we develop a case study centered around sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) distribution on the west coast of the USA. The three modeling choices represent decisions necessary in virtually all ecological applications of these methods, and are important because the consequences of these choices impact derived quantities of interest (e.g., estimates of population size and their management implications). Truncating the spatial extent of data near the observed range edge, or using a model that is misspecified in terms of covariates and spatial and spatiotemporal fields, led to bias in population biomass trends and mean distribution compared to estimates from models using the full dataset and appropriate model structure. In some cases, these suboptimal modeling decisions may be unavoidable, but understanding the tradeoffs of these choices and impacts on predictions is critical. We illustrate how seemingly small model choices, often made out of necessity or simplicity, can affect scientific advice informing management decisions-potentially leading to erroneous conclusions about changes in abundance or distribution and the precision of such estimates. For example, we show how incorrect decisions could cause overestimation of abundance, which could result in management advice resulting in overfishing. Based on these findings and literature gaps, we outline important frontiers in SDM development.

Accelerated shifts in terrestrial life zones under rapid climate change

Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones-distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad-scale ecosystem types-is limited. To address this gap, we used high-resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901-1920), contemporary (1979-2013), and future (2061-2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km² (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km² (42.6% of land) under "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social-ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist.

Ocean warming and acidification degrade shoaling performance and lateralization of novel tropical-temperate fish shoals

Gregarious behaviours are common in animals and provide various benefits such as food acquisition and protection against predators. Many gregarious tropical species are shifting poleward under current ocean warming, creating novel species and social interactions with local temperate taxa. However, how the dynamics of these novel shoals might be altered by future ocean warming and acidification remains untested. Here we evaluate how novel species interactions, ocean acidification and warming affect shoaling dynamics, motor lateralization and boldness of range-extending tropical and co-shoaling temperate fishes under controlled laboratory conditions. Fishes were exposed to 1 of 12 treatments (combinations of three temperature levels, two pCO₂  levels and two shoal type levels: mixed species or temperate only) for 38 days. Lateralization (a measure of asymmetric expression of cognitive function in group coordination and predator escape) of tropical and temperate species was right-side biased under present-day conditions, but side bias significantly diminished in tropical and temperate fishes under ocean acidification. Ocean acidification also decreased shoal cohesion irrespective of shoaling type, with mixed-species shoals showing significantly lower cohesion than temperate-only shoals irrespective of climate stressors. Tropical fish became bolder under ocean acidification (after 4 weeks), and temperate fish became bolder with increasing temperature, while ocean acidification dampened temperate fish boldness. Our findings highlight the direct effect of climate stressors on fish behaviour and the interplay with the indirect effects of novel species interactions. Because strong shoal cohesion and lateralization are key determinants of species fitness, their degradation under ocean warming and acidification could adversely affect species performance in novel assemblages in a future ocean, and might slow down tropical species range extensions.

Stepping stones towards Antarctica: Switch to southern spawning grounds explains an abrupt range shift in krill

Poleward range shifts are a global-scale response to warming, but these vary greatly among taxa and are hard to predict for individual species, localized regions or over shorter (years to decadal) timescales. Moving poleward might be easier in the Arctic than in the Southern Ocean, where evidence for range shifts is sparse and contradictory. Here, we compiled a database of larval Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba and, together with an adult database, it showed how their range shift is out of step with the pace of warming. During a 70-year period of rapid warming (1920s-1990s), distribution centres of both larvae and adults in the SW Atlantic sector remained fixed, despite warming by 0.5-1.0°C and losing sea ice. This was followed by a hiatus in surface warming and ice loss, yet during this period the distributions of krill life stages shifted greatly, by ~1000 km, to the south-west. Understanding the mechanism of such step changes is essential, since they herald system reorganizations that are hard to predict with current modelling approaches. We propose that the abrupt shift was driven by climatic controls acting on localized recruitment hotspots, superimposed on thermal niche conservatism. During the warming hiatus, the Southern Annular Mode index continued to become increasingly positive and, likely through reduced feeding success for larvae, this led to a precipitous decline in recruitment from the main reproduction hotspot along the southern Scotia Arc. This cut replenishment to the northern portion of the krill stock, as evidenced by declining density and swarm frequency. Concomitantly, a new, southern reproduction area developed after the 1990s, reinforcing the range shift despite the lack of surface warming. New spawning hotspots may provide the stepping stones needed for range shifts into polar regions, so planning of climate-ready marine protected areas should include these key areas of future habitat.

Ontogeny of osmoregulation of the Asian shore crab Hemigrapsus sanguineus at an invaded site of Europe

We studied the ontogeny of osmoregulation of the Asian shore crab Hemigrapsus sanguineus at an invaded area in the North Sea. H. sanguineus is native to Japan and China but has successfully invaded the Atlantic coast of North America and Europe. In the invaded areas, H. sanguineus is becoming a keystone species as driver of community structure and the adults compete with the shore crab Carcinus maenas. Strong osmoregulatory abilities may confer the potential to use and invade coastal areas already earlier in the life cycle. We reared larvae and first juveniles at 24°C in seawater from hatching to intermoult of each developmental stage (zoea I-V, megalopa, crab I). We exposed each stage to a range of salinities (0-39 ppt) for 24 h, and then we quantified haemolymph osmolality, using nano-osmometry. In addition, we quantified osmolality in field-collected adults after acclimation to the test salinities for 6 days. Larvae of H. sanguineus were able to hyper-osmoregulate at low salinities (15 and 20 ppt) over the complete larval development, although the capacity was reduced at the zoeal stage V; at higher salinities (25-39 ppt), all larval stages were osmoconformers. The capacity to slightly hypo-regulate at high salinity appeared in the first juvenile. Adults were able to hyper-osmoregulate at low salinities and hypo-regulate at concentrated seawater (39 ppt). H. sanguineus showed a strong capacity to osmoregulate as compared to its native competitor C. maenas, which only hyper-regulates at the first and last larval stages and does not hypo-regulate at the juvenile-adult stages. The capacity of H. sanguineus to osmoregulate over most of the life cycle should underpin the potential to invade empty niches in the coastal zone (characterized by low salinity and high temperatures). Osmoregulation abilities over the whole life cycle also constitute a strong competitive advantage over C. maenas.

Adaptation of Temperate Seagrass to Arctic Light Relies on Seasonal Acclimatization of Carbon Capture and Metabolism

Due to rising global surface temperatures, Arctic habitats are becoming thermally suitable for temperate species. Whether a temperate species can immigrate into an ice-free Arctic depends on its ability to tolerate extreme seasonal fluctuations in daylength. Thus, understanding adaptations to polar light conditions can improve the realism of models predicting poleward range expansions in response to climate change. Plant adaptations to polar light have rarely been studied and remain unknown in seagrasses. If these ecosystem engineers can migrate polewards, seagrasses will enrich biodiversity, and carbon capture potential in shallow coastal regions of the Arctic. Eelgrass (Zostera marina) is the most widely distributed seagrass in the northern hemisphere. As the only seagrass species growing as far north as 70°N, it is the most likely candidate to first immigrate into an ice-free Arctic. Here, we describe seasonal (and diurnal) changes in photosynthetic characteristics, and in genome-wide gene expression patterns under strong annual fluctuations of daylength. We compared PAM measurements and RNA-seq data between two populations at the longest and shortest day of the year: (1) a Mediterranean population exposed to moderate annual fluctuations of 10-14 h daylength and (2) an Arctic population exposed to high annual fluctuations of 0-24 h daylength. Most of the gene expression specificities of the Arctic population were found in functions of the organelles (chloroplast and mitochondrion). In winter, Arctic eelgrass conserves energy by repressing respiration and reducing photosynthetic energy fluxes. Although light-reactions, and genes involved in carbon capture and carbon storage were upregulated in summer, enzymes involved in CO2 fixation and chlorophyll-synthesis were upregulated in winter, suggesting that winter metabolism relies not only on stored energy resources but also on active use of dim light conditions. Eelgrass is unable to use excessive amounts of light during summer and demonstrates a significant reduction in photosynthetic performance under long daylengths, possibly to prevent photoinhibition constrains. Our study identified key mechanisms that allow eelgrass to survive under Arctic light conditions and paves the way for experimental research to predict whether and up to which latitude eelgrass can potentially migrate polewards in response to climate change.

Get up early: Revealing behavioral responses of sandeel to ocean warming using commercial catch data

Warming of the oceans and shifts in the timing of annual key events are likely to cause behavioral changes in species showing a high degree of site fidelity. While this is well studied in terrestrial systems, there are fewer examples from the marine environment. Sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) is a small eel-shaped teleost fish with strong behavioral attachment to sandy habitats in which they are buried from late summer through winter. When spring arrives, the sandeel emerge to feed during the day for several of months before returning to the sand for overwintering refuge.Using fisheries data from the North Sea, we investigated whether catch rates reflect the timing of emergence and if seasonal patterns are related to temperature and primary production.Catch per unit effort (CPUE) was used to describe sandeel emergence. We developed indicators of the relative timing of the emergence from the winter sand refuge and the subsequent growth period. Different modeling approaches were used to investigate the relationship with bottom temperature and primary production.Variation in emergence behavior was correlated with variation in sea bottom temperature. Warmer years were characterized by earlier emergence. Significant warming over the last three decades was evident in all sandeel habitats in the North Sea throughout most of their adult life history, though no net shift in the phenology of emergence was detected. Minimum temperature during spring was a better predictor of emergence behavior than, for example, degree days.This study emphasizes how temperature-induced changes in behavior may have implications for predators and fisheries of sandeel. The method can be applied to other species for which the timing of exploitation (i.e., fisheries) and species life history are well matched.

Facing up to climate change: Community composition varies with aspect and surface temperature in the rocky intertidal

Marine rocky intertidal organisms are amongst those most affected by climate change with regional distributional changes observed for many species. Although often ascribed to increased sea surface temperatures, precise assessment of the local habitat conditions underpinning observed and predicted changes in community assembly is lacking. Here we examine how aspect (i.e. north-south orientation) affects intertidal community composition and how rock surface temperatures and stress responses of two dominant grazer species (Patella spp.) elucidate emergent differences. We quantified year-round temperature variation and surveyed intertidal community composition on paired natural rock gullies with Equator- (EF) and Pole-facing (PF) surfaces. We also investigated variation in limpet (Patella spp.) reproductive phenology and osmotic stress. Average annual temperatures were 0.8 °C (1.6 °C at low tide) higher, with six-fold more frequent extremes (i.e. > 30 °C) on EF than PF surfaces. Intertidal community composition varied with aspect across trophic levels with greater overall species richness, abundance of primary producers and grazers on PF-surfaces, and greater barnacle abundance on EF-surfaces. Although species richness of organisms from different biogeographical origins ('Boreal' or 'Lusitanian') did not vary, the Lusitanian limpet Patella depressa exhibited earlier reproductive development on EF-surfaces and both limpet species exhibited greater thermal stress on EF-surfaces. We argue that our study system provides a good model for understanding how temperature variation at local scales can affect community composition, as well as ecophysiological and ecological responses to climate change and so better inform and predict regional range shifts over coming decades.

Feeding preferences of range-shifting and native herbivorous fishes in temperate ecosystems

Temperate reefs are being tropicalized worldwide. In temperate Western Australia, a marine heatwave led to a regime shift from kelp (Ecklonia radiata) dominated to canopy-free reefs, together with an increase in tropical herbivorous fishes that contribute to keeping low kelp abundances and even prevent kelp reestablishment in northern regions. However, whether tropical herbivorous fishes prefer kelps over other seaweeds and/or whether this preference changes with latitude remains untested. Multiple-choice experiments (young kelp vs. other seaweeds) with tropical, subtropical and temperate herbivorous fishes show shifting species-specific preferences and fish-to-fish interference shifting with latitude (assays replicated in two regions four degrees of latitude apart). Against expectations, only the temperate Kyphosus sydneyanus preferred kelp over other seaweeds, but only in the lower latitude region. Siganus fuscescens, the most abundant tropical herbivore in both regions, preferred grazing on turf, suggesting that tropical fish might reduce kelp recruitment by consuming microscopic sporophytes in turf matrix.

Incorporating Geographical Scale and Multiple Environmental Factors to Delineate the Breeding Distribution of Sea Turtles

Temperature is often used to infer how climate influences wildlife distributions; yet, other parameters also contribute, separately and combined, with effects varying across geographical scales. Here, we used an unoccupied aircraft system to explore how environmental parameters affect the regional distribution of the terrestrial and marine breeding habitats of threatened loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta). Surveys spanned four years and ~620 km coastline of western Greece, encompassing low (<10 nests/km) to high (100–500 nests/km) density nesting areas. We recorded 2395 tracks left by turtles on beaches and 1928 turtles occupying waters adjacent to these beaches. Variation in beach track and inwater turtle densities was explained by temperature, offshore prevailing wind, and physical marine and terrestrial factors combined. The highest beach-track densities (400 tracks/km) occurred on beaches with steep slopes and higher sand temperatures, sheltered from prevailing offshore winds. The highest inwater turtle densities (270 turtles/km) occurred over submerged sandbanks, with warmer sea temperatures associated with offshore wind. Most turtles (90%) occurred over nearshore submerged sandbanks within 10 km of beaches supporting the highest track densities, showing the strong linkage between optimal marine and terrestrial environments for breeding. Our findings demonstrate the utility of UASs in surveying marine megafauna and environmental data at large scales and the importance of integrating multiple factors in climate change models to predict species distributions.