Development and prospective validation of a clinical index to predict survival in ambulatory patients referred for cardiac transplant evaluation

Role of confirmed and potential predictors of an unfavorable outcome in heart failure in everyday clinical practice

Heart failure (HF) is the only cardiovascular disease with an ever increasing incidence. HF, through reduced functional capacity, frequent exacerbations of disease, and repeated hospitalizations, results in poorer quality of life, decreased work productivity, and significantly increased costs of the public health system. The main challenge in the treatment of HF is the availability of reliable prognostic models that would allow patients and doctors to develop realistic expectations about the prognosis and to choose the appropriate therapy and monitoring method. At this moment, there is a lack of universal parameters or scales on the basis of which we could easily capture the moment of deterioration of HF patients' condition. Hence, it is crucial to identify such factors which at the same time will be widely available, cheap, and easy to use. We can find many studies showing different predictors of unfavorable outcome in HF patients: thorough assessment with echocardiography imaging, exercise testing (e.g., 6-min walk test, cardiopulmonary exercise testing), and biomarkers (e.g., N-terminal pro-brain type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity troponin T, galectin-3, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein). Some of them are very promising, but more research is needed to create a specific panel on the basis of which we will be able to assess HF patients. At this moment despite identification of many markers of adverse outcomes, clinical decision-making in HF is still predominantly based on a few basic parameters, such as the presence of HF symptoms (NYHA class), left ventricular ejection fraction, and QRS complex duration and morphology.

Psychosocial Risk and Health Behaviors as Predictors of Clinical Events in Patients Wait-Listed for a New Heart: Results from 7 Years of Follow-Up

We examined the long-term relationship of psychosocial risk and health behaviors on clinical events in patients awaiting heart transplantation (HTx). Psychosocial characteristics (e.g., depression), health behaviors (e.g., dietary habits, smoking), medical factors (e.g., creatinine), and demographics (e.g., age, sex) were collected at the time of listing in 318 patients (82% male, mean age = 53 years) enrolled in the Waiting for a New Heart Study. Clinical events were death/delisting due to deterioration, high-urgency status transplantation (HU-HTx), elective transplantation, and delisting due to clinical improvement. Within 7 years of follow-up, 92 patients died or were delisted due to deterioration, 121 received HU-HTx, 43 received elective transplantation, and 39 were delisted due to improvement. Adjusting for demographic and medical characteristics, the results indicated that frequent consumption of healthy foods (i.e., foods high in unsaturated fats) and being physically active increased the likelihood of delisting due improvement, while smoking and depressive symptoms were related to death/delisting due to clinical deterioration while awaiting HTx. In conclusion, psychosocial and behavioral characteristics are clearly associated with clinical outcomes in this population. Interventions that target psychosocial risk, smoking, dietary habits, and physical activity may be beneficial for patients with advanced heart failure waiting for a cardiac transplant.

Identifying patients at increased risk for poor outcomes from heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: the PROMPT-HF risk model

Aims

We aimed to develop a risk prediction tool that incorporated both clinical events and worsening health status for patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Identifying patients with HFrEF at increased risk of a poor outcome may enable proactive interventions that improve outcomes.

Methods and results

We used data from a longitudinal HF registry, CHAMP‐HF, to develop a risk prediction tool for poor outcomes over the next 6 months. A poor outcome was defined as death, an HF hospitalization, or a ≥20‐point decrease (or decrease below 25) in 12‐item Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ‐12) overall summary score. Among 4546 patients in CHAMP‐HF, 1066 (23%) experienced a poor outcome within 6 months (1.3% death, 11% HF hospitalization, and 11% change in KCCQ‐12). The model demonstrated moderate discrimination (c‐index = 0.65) and excellent calibration with observed data. The following variables were associated with a poor outcome: age, race, education, New York Heart Association class, baseline KCCQ‐12, atrial fibrillation, coronary disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, smoking, prior HF hospitalization, and systolic blood pressure. We also created a simplified model with a 0–10 score using six variables (New York Heart Association class, KCCQ‐12, coronary disease, chronic kidney disease, prior HF hospitalization, and systolic blood pressure) with similar discrimination (c‐index = 0.63). Patients scoring 0–3 were considered low risk (event rate <20%), 4–6 were considered intermediate risk (event rate 20–40%), and 7–10 were considered high risk (event rate >40%).

Conclusions

The PROMPT‐HF risk model can identify outpatients with HFrEF at increased risk of poor outcomes, including clinical events and health status deterioration. With further validation, this model may help inform therapeutic decision making.

Echocardiographic Killip Classification

BACKGROUND

Although routine echocardiographic parameters such as ejection fraction are used to risk-stratify for death in patients referred for echocardiography, they have limited predictive value. The authors speculated that noninvasive hemodynamic echocardiographic data, assessing left ventricular filling pressure and output, stratified on the basis of the clinical Killip score, might have additive prognostic value on top of routine echocardiographic parameters. The authors created an echocardiographic correlate of this classification, using diastolic grade and stroke volume index (SVI) as indicators of pulmonary congestion and systemic perfusion, respectively, and evaluated the prognostic value of this correlate.

METHODS

A retrospective study of consecutive patients (hospitalized or not) referred for echocardiography for a range of cardiac diagnoses in a tertiary medical center. A total of 556 patients in sinus rhythm who were evaluated by two sonographers, and reviewed by a single cardiologist, were included. Normal filling pressure and normal SVI (>35 mL/m²) defined echocardiographic Killip (eKillip) class 1. Patients with pseudonormal or restrictive diastolic patterns and normal SVI were ascribed to eKillip class 2 or 3, respectively. A pseudonormal or restrictive diastolic pattern and a subnormal SVI defined eKillip class 4.

RESULTS

eKillip class 1 was present in 382 patients (68%); 115 (20%), 26 (5%), and 42 (7%) patients were in eKillip classes 2 to 4, respectively. Median follow-up time was 1,056 days (interquartile range, 729-1,390 days). A total of 105 deaths occurred. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that eKillip class was associated with all-cause mortality; hazard ratios (HR) -2.73 (95% CI, 1.67-4.48), 3.19 (95% CI, 1.42-7.17), and 4.79 (95% CI, 2.58-8.89) for each eKillip class above 1 (P < .001). In a multivariate analysis adjusted for the Charlson comorbidity index, eKillip class remained independently associated with all-cause mortality (P = .04).

CONCLUSIONS

eKillip class was associated with all-cause mortality among all patients undergoing echocardiography at a tertiary hospital.

Predicting mortality for patients with heart failure beyond oxygen consumption: a prognostic risk score

Cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) is a crucial tool for the functional evaluation of cardiac patients. We hypothesized that maximal oxygen consumption (V̇o_2max) and ventilatory efficiency-minute ventilation to carbon dioxide production (V̇e/V̇co₂) slope are not the only parameters of CPET able to predict major cardiac events (mortality or cardiac transplantation urgently or elective). We aimed to identify the best CPET predictors of major cardiac events in patients with severe chronic heart failure and to propose an integrated score that could be applied for their prognostic evaluation. We evaluated 140 patients with chronic heart failure who underwent CPET between 2011 and 2019. Major cardiac events were evaluated during follow-up. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to study the predictive value of different clinical, echocardiographic, and CPET parameters in relation to the major cardiac events. A score was generated, and c-statistic was used for the comparisons. Thirty-nine patients (27.9%) died or underwent cardiac transplantation over a median follow-up of 48 mo. Five parameters (maximal workload, breathing reserve, left ventricular ejection fraction, diastolic dysfunction, and nonidiopathic cardiomyopathy) were used to generate a risk score that had better risk discrimination than the New York Heart Association dyspnea scale, V̇o_2max, V̇e/V̇co₂ slope > 35 alone, and combined V̇o_2max and V̇e/V̇co₂ slope (P = 0.009, 0.004, <0.001, and 0.005, respectively) in predicting major cardiac events. A composite score of CPET and clinical/echocardiographic data is more reliable than the single use of V̇o_2max or combined with V̇e/V̇co₂ slope to predict major cardiac events.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This is a cohort study with a follow-up of maximum of 8 years of patients with chronic heart failure that demonstrates a simple integrated score consisting of CPET (breathing reserve, workload at maximal exercise), echocardiographic (LVEF, diastolic dysfunction), and clinical (etiology of cardiac disease) data. The generated score was a better predictor of major cardiac events (mortality or cardiac transplantation) than Weber classification (V̇o_2max classification) or NYHA functional class as single factors.

Listing Criteria for Heart Transplant: Role of Cardiopulmonary Exercise Test and of Prognostic Scores

Patients with advanced heart failure (AdHF) have a reduced quality of life and poor prognosis. A heart transplant (HT) is an effective treatment for such patients. Still, because of a shortage of donor organs, the final decision to place a patient without contraindications on the HT waiting list is based on detailed risk-benefit analysis. Cardiopulmonary exercise tests (CPETs) play a pivotal role in guiding selection in patients with AdHF considered for an HT. Furthermore, several validated multivariable predicting scores obtained through various techniques, including the CPETs, are available and part of the decision-making process for HT listing.

Visual versus fully automated assessment of left ventricular ejection fraction

Introduction

The aim of this study is to compare three different echocardiographic methods commonly used in the assessment of left ventricle (LV) ejection fraction (EF).

Methods

All patients underwent full echocardiography including LVEF assessed using M-mode, automated EF (Auto-EF), and visual estimation by two readers.

Results

We enrolled 268 patients. Auto-EF measurement was feasible in 240 (89.5%) patients. The averaged LVEF was (52% ± 12) with the visual assessment, (51% ± 11) with Auto-EF and (57% ± 13) with M-mode. Using Bland-Altman analysis, we found that the difference between the mean visual and the Auto-EF was not significant (-0.3% [-0.5803-0.0053], P = 0.054). However, the mean EF was significantly different when comparing visual versus M-mode and Auto-EF versus M-mode with the mean differences: (-2.4365 [-2.9946--1.8783], P < 0.0001) and (-2.1490 [-2.7348--1.5631], P < 0.0001) respectively. Inter-observer variability analysis of the visual EF assessment between the two readers showed that intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.953, (95% confidence interval: 0.939-0.965, P < 0.0001), with excellent correlation between the two readers: R = 0.911, P < 0.0001).

Conclusion

The two-dimensional echocardiographic methods using Biplane Auto-EF or visual assessment were significantly comparable, whereas M-mode results in an overestimation of the LVEF.

A review of machine learning for cardiology

This paper reviews recent cardiology literature and reports how Artificial Intelligence Tools (specifically, Machine Learning techniques) are being used by physicians in the field. Each technique is introduced with enough details to allow the understanding of how it works and its intent, but without delving into details that do not add immediate benefits and require expertise in the field. We specifically focus on the principal Machine Learning based risk scores used in cardiovascular research. After introducing them and summarizing their assumptions and biases, we discuss their merits and shortcomings. We report on how frequently they are adopted in the field and suggest why this is the case based on our expertise in Machine Learning. We complete the analysis by reviewing how corresponding statistical approaches compare with them. Finally, we discuss the main open issues in applying Machine Learning tools to cardiology tasks, also drafting possible future directions. Despite the growing interest in these tools, we argue that there are many still underutilized techniques: while Neural Networks are slowly being incorporated in cardiovascular research, other important techniques such as Semi-Supervised Learning and Federated Learning are still underutilized. The former would allow practitioners to harness the information contained in large datasets that are only partially labeled, while the latter would foster collaboration between institutions allowing building larger and better models.

MELD Score Predicts Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Venovenous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV ECMO) is increasingly being used in the management of severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The Respiratory ECMO Survival Prediction (RESP) score is most commonly used to predict survival of patients undergoing ECMO. However, the RESP score does not incorporate renal and hepatic dysfunction which are frequently a part of the constellation of multiorgan dysfunction associated with ARDS. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) incorporates both liver and kidney dysfunction and is used in the risk stratification of liver transplant recipients as well as those undergoing cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the MELD score in patients undergoing VV ECMO. Patients undergoing VV ECMO from 2016 to 2019 were extracted from our prospectively maintained institutional ECMO database and stratified based on MELD score. Baseline clinical, laboratory, and follow-up data, as well as post-ECMO outcomes, were compared. Of 71 patients, 50 patients (70.4%) had a MELD score <12 and 21 (29.6%) had a MELD score ≥12. The higher MELD score was associated with increased post-ECMO mortality but reduced risk of dialysis and tracheostomy. In multivariate analysis, higher MELD score (HR 1.35, 95% CI = 1.07-2.75), lower body surface area (HR 0.16, 0.04-0.65), RESP score (HR 0.75, 95% CI = 0.64-0.87), and platelet count (HR 0.99, 95% CI = 0.98-0.99), were significant predictors of postoperative mortality. We conclude that MELD score can be used complementarily to the RESP score to predict outcomes in patients with ARDS undergoing VV ECMO.

Prediction Models and Scores in Adult Congenital Heart Disease

Nowadays, most patients with congenital heart disease survive to adulthood due to advances in pediatric cardiac surgery but often present with various comorbidities and long-term complications, posing challenges in their management. The development and clinical use of risk scores for the prediction of morbidity and/or mortality in adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD) is fundamental in achieving optimal management for these patients, including appropriate follow-up frequency, treatment escalation, and timely referral for invasive procedures or heart transplantation. In comparison with other fields of cardiovascular medicine, there are relatively few studies that report prediction models developed in the ACHD population, given the small sample size, heterogeneity of the population, and relatively low event rate. Some studies report risk scores originally developed in pediatric congenital or non-congenital population, externally validated in ACHD with variable success. Available risk scores are designed to predict heart failure or arrhythmic events, all-cause mortality, post-intervention outcomes, infective endocarditis, or atherosclerosis-related cardiovascular disease in ACHD. A substantial number of these scores are derived from retrospective studies and are not internally or externally validated. Adequately validated risk scores can be invaluable in clinical practice and an important step towards personalized medicine. Multicenter collaboration, adequate study design, and the potential use of artificial intelligence are important elements in the effort to develop reliable risk scores for the ACHD population.

Minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production in chronic heart failure

In chronic heart failure, minute ventilation (V'_E) for a given carbon dioxide production (V'_CO2 ) might be abnormally high during exercise due to increased dead space ventilation, lung stiffness, chemo- and metaboreflex sensitivity, early metabolic acidosis and abnormal pulmonary haemodynamics. The V'_E versus V'_CO2 relationship, analysed either as ratio or as slope, enables us to evaluate the causes and entity of the V'_E/perfusion mismatch. Moreover, the V'_E axis intercept, i.e. when V'_CO2 is extrapolated to 0, embeds information on exercise-induced dead space changes, while the analysis of end-tidal and arterial CO₂ pressures provides knowledge about reflex activities. The V'_E versus V'_CO2 relationship has a relevant prognostic power either alone or, better, when included within prognostic scores. The V'_E versus V'_CO2 slope is reported as an absolute number with a recognised cut-off prognostic value of 35, except for specific diseases such as hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and idiopathic cardiomyopathy, where a lower cut-off has been suggested. However, nowadays, it is more appropriate to report V'_E versus V'_CO2 slope as percentage of the predicted value, due to age and gender interferences. Relevant attention is needed in V'_E versus V'_CO2 analysis in the presence of heart failure comorbidities. Finally, V'_E versus V'_CO2 abnormalities are relevant targets for treatment in heart failure.

Determinants of maximal oxygen uptake in patients with heart failure

Aims

Maximum oxygen uptake (VO_2max) is an essential parameter to assess functional capacity of patients with heart failure (HF). We aimed to identify clinical factors that determine its value, as they have not been well characterized yet.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective, observational, single‐centre study of 362 consecutive patients with HF who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) as part of standard clinical assessment since 2009–2019. CPET was performed on treadmill, according to Bruce's protocol (n = 360) or Naughton's protocol (n = 2). We performed multivariable linear regression analyses in order to identify independent clinical predictors associated with peak VO_2max.

Results

Mean age of study patients was 57.3 ± 10.9 years, mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 32.8 ± 14.2%, and mean VO_2max was 19.8 ± 5.2 mL/kg/min. Eighty‐nine (24.6%) patients were women, and 114 (31.5%) had ischaemic heart disease. Multivariable linear regression analysis identified six independent clinical predictors of VO_2max, including NYHA class (B coefficient = −2.585; P < 0.001), age (B coefficient per 1 year = −0.104; P < 0.001), tricuspid annulus plane systolic excursion (B coefficient per 1 mm = +0.209; P < 0.001), body mass index (B coefficient per 1 kg/m² = −0.172; P = 0.002), haemoglobin (B coefficient per 1 g/dL = +0.418; P = 0.007) and NT‐proBNP (B coefficient per 1000 pg/mL = −0.142; P = 0.019).

Conclusions

The severity of HF (NYHA class, NT‐proBNP) as well as age, body composition and haemoglobin levels influence significantly exercise capacity. In patients with HF, the right ventricular systolic function is of greater importance for the physical capacity than the left ventricular systolic function.

Prognostic significance of the HFA-PEFF score in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

AIMS

The HFA-PEFF score is a part of the stepwise diagnostic algorithm of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). We aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of the HFA-PEFF score on the clinical outcomes in patients with HFpEF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The Prospective mUlticenteR obServational stUdy of patIenTs with Heart Failure with preserved Ejection Fraction (PURSUIT-HFpEF) study is a prospective, multicentre, observational study in which collaborating hospitals in Osaka record clinical, echocardiographic, and outcome data of patients with acute decompensated heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (≥50%) [UMIN-CTR ID: UMIN000021831]. Acute decompensated heart failure was diagnosed on the basis of the following criteria: (i) clinical symptoms and signs according to the Framingham Heart Study criteria; and (ii) serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level of ≥400 pg/mL or brain natriuretic peptide level of ≥100 pg/mL. The HFA-PEFF score has functional, morphological, and biomarker domains. We evaluated the prognostic significance of the HFA-PEFF score (calculated based on the data at hospital discharge) on post-discharge clinical outcomes in this cohort. The primary endpoint of the present study was a composite of all-cause death and heart failure readmission. Between June 2016 and December 2019, 871 patients were enrolled from 26 hospitals (mean follow-up duration 399 ± 349 days). A total of 804 patients were finally analysed after excluding patients with scores of 0 (N = 5) and 1 (N = 15) from 824 patients with available HFA-PEFF score based on the echocardiographic and laboratory data at discharge. According to the laboratory and echocardiographic data at the time of discharge, 487 patients (59.1%) were diagnosed as HFpEF (HFA-PEFF score ≥ 5) while 317 patients (38.5%) had intermediate score. Kaplan-Meier analysis divided by the HFA-PEFF score [low, score 2-5 (N = 494) vs. high, score 6 (N = 310)] indicated that the HFA-PEFF score successfully stratified the patients for the primary endpoint (log-rank test P < 0.001). Cox proportional hazard model showed that the HFA-PEFF score was significantly associated with the primary endpoint (high score with reference to low score, adjusted hazard ratio 1.446, 95% confidence interval [1.099-1.902], P = 0.008).

CONCLUSION

The HFA-PEFF score at discharge was significantly associated with the post-discharge clinical outcomes in acute decompensated heart failure patients with preserved ejection fraction. This study suggested clinical usefulness of the HFA-PEFF score not only as a diagnostic tool but also a practical prognostic tool.

Efficacy of Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy in Patients with a Narrow QRS Complex

Aims. In the guidelines for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), there is a gap between the Japanese Circulation Society (JCS) criteria, which specify a QRS duration of ≥120 ms, and other countries, with a QRS ≥ 130 ms. The efficacy of CRT remains controversial in patients with a narrow QRS <130 ms. The aims of this study are to evaluate the response to CRT in patients with a narrow QRS and to identify predictors of mortality. Methods. We retrospectively studied 212 patients who received CRT. They were divided into narrow QRS (<130 ms) and wide QRS (≥130 ms) groups. We compared CRT response rates and investigated whether age, gender, baseline New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, ischemic etiology, atrial fibrillation, and ventricular arrhythmias are associated with response and also predictive of mortality. Results. The CRT response rate was not significantly different between the wide QRS group and the narrow QRS group (74.6% versus 77.2%, $p$  = 0.6876), and the response rate in the narrow QRS group was as good as that reported worldwide. NYHA class IV was shown to be a predictor of mortality (HR 9.38, 95% CI 5.35–16.3, $p$  < 0.0001). Conclusions. The present study demonstrated that patients with a narrow QRS complex responded well to CRT. Even with QRS <130 ms, CRT should be tried if no other effective treatment is available.

Predictive Value of Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing Parameters in Ambulatory Advanced Heart Failure

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to determine cardiopulmonary exercise (CPX) predictors of the combined outcome of durable mechanical circulatory support (MCS), transplantation, or death at 1 year among patients with ambulatory advanced heart failure (HF).

BACKGROUND

Optimal CPX predictors of outcomes in contemporary ambulatory advanced HF patients are unclear.

METHODS

REVIVAL (Registry Evaluation of Vital Information for ventricular assist devices [VADs] in Ambulatory Life) enrolled 400 systolic HF patients, INTERMACS (Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support) profiles 4-7. CPX was performed by 273 subjects 2 ± 1 months after study enrollment. Discriminative power of maximal (peak oxygen consumption [peak VO₂]; VO₂ pulse, circulatory power [CP]; peak systolic blood pressure • peak VO₂], peak end-tidal pressure CO₂ [PEtCO₂], and peak Borg scale score) and submaximal CPX parameters (ventilatory efficiency [VE/VCO₂ slope]; VO₂ at anaerobic threshold [VO₂AT]; and oxygen uptake efficiency slope [OUES]) to predict the composite outcome were assessed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression and Harrell's concordance statistic.

RESULTS

At 1 year, there were 39 events (6 transplants, 15 deaths, 18 MCS implantations). Peak VO₂, VO₂AT, OUES, peak PEtCO₂, and CP were higher in the no-event group (all p < 0.001), whereas VE/VCO₂ slope was lower (p < 0.0001); respiratory exchange ratio was not different. CP (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.89; p = 0.001), VE/VCO₂ slope (HR: 1.05; p = 0.001), and peak Borg scale score (HR: 1.20; p = 0.005) were significant predictors on multivariate analysis (model C-statistic: 0.80).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with ambulatory advanced HF, the strongest maximal and submaximal CPX predictor of MCS implantation, transplantation, or death at 1 year were CP and VE/VCO_2, respectively. The patient-reported measure of exercise effort (Borg scale score) contributed substantially to the prediction of outcomes, a surprising and novel finding that warrants further investigation. (Registry Evaluation of Vital Information for VADs in Ambulatory Life [REVIVAL]; NCT01369407).

The effect of three major co-morbidities on quality of life and outcome of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction

Aims

Diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and chronic kidney disease are prevalent in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). We have analysed the impact of co‐morbidities on quality of life (QoL) and outcome.

Methods and results

A total of 397 patients (58.8 ± 11.0 years, 73.6% with New York Heart Association functional class ≥3) with stable advanced HFrEF were followed for a median of 1106 (inter‐quartile range 379–2606) days, and 68% of patients (270 patients) experienced an adverse outcome (death, urgent heart transplantation, and implantation of mechanical circulatory support). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was present in 16.4%, diabetes mellitus in 44.3%, and chronic kidney disease in 34.5% of patients; 33.5% of patients had none, 40.0% had one, 21.9% had two, and 3.8% of patient had three co‐morbidities. Patients with more co‐morbidities reported similar QoL (assessed by Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire, 45.46 ± 22.21/49.07 ± 21.69/47.52 ± 23.54/46.77 ± 23.60 in patients with zero to three co‐morbidities, P for trend = 0.51). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that furosemide daily dose, systolic blood pressure, New York Heart Association functional class, and body mass index, but not the number of co‐morbidities, were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with QoL. Increasing co‐morbidity burden was associated with worse survival (P < 0.0001), lower degree of angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker treatment (P = 0.001), and increasing levels of BNP (mean of 685, 912, 1053, and 985 ng/L for patients with zero to three co‐morbidities, P for trend = 0.008) and cardiac troponin (sm‐cTnI, P for trend = 0.0496), which remained significant (P < 0.05) after the adjustment for left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular end‐diastolic diameter, right ventricular dysfunction grade, body mass index, and estimated glomerular filtration rate.

Conclusions

In stable advanced HFrEF patients, co‐morbidities are not associated with impaired QoL, but negatively affect the prognosis both directly and indirectly through lower level of HF pharmacotherapy and increased myocardial stress and injury.

Application of the heart failure meta-score to predict prognosis in patients with cardiac resynchronization defibrillators

BACKGROUND

The Heart Failure (HF) Meta-score may be useful in predicting prognosis in patients with primary prevention cardiac resynchronization defibrillators (CRT-D) considering the competing risk of appropriate defibrillator shock versus mortality.

METHODS

Data from 648 consecutive patients from two centers were used for the evaluation of the performance of the HF Meta-score. The primary endpoint was mortality and the secondary endpoint was time to first appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) shock or death without prior appropriate ICD shock. Fine-Gray model was used for competing risk regression analysis.

RESULTS

In the entire cohort, 237 patients died over a median follow-up of 5.2 years. Five-year cumulative incidence of mortality ranged from 12% to 53%, for quintiles 1 through 5 of the HF Meta-score, respectively (log-rank P < 0.001). Compared with the lowest quintile, mortality risk was higher in the highest quintile (HR 6.9; 95%CI 3.7-12.8). The HF Meta-score had excellent calibration, accuracy, and good discrimination in predicting mortality (C-statistic 0.76 at 1-year and 0.71 at 5-year). The risk of death without appropriate ICD shock was higher in risk quintile 5 compared to quintile 1 (sub HR 5.8; 95%CI 3.1-11.0, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated a good ability of the HF Meta-score to predict survival in HF patients treated with CRT-D as primary prevention. The HF Meta-score proved to be useful in identifying a subgroup with a significantly poor prognosis despite a CRT-D.

Clinical Implications of Uric Acid in Heart Failure: A Comprehensive Review

Affecting more than 26 million people worldwide and with rising prevalence, heart failure (HF) represents a major global health problem. Hence, further research is needed in order to abate poor HF outcomes and mitigate significant expenses that burden health care systems. Based on available data, experts agree that there is an urgent need for a cost-effective prognostic biomarker in HF. Although a significant number of biomarkers have already been investigated in this setting, the clinical utility of adding biomarker evaluation to routine HF care still remains ambiguous. Specifically, in this review we focused on uric acid (UA), a purine metabolism detriment whose role as cardiovascular risk factor has been exhaustingly debated for decades. Multiple large population studies indicate that UA is an independent predictor of mortality in acute and chronic HF, making it a significant prognostic factor in both settings. High serum levels have been also associated with an increased incidence of HF, thus expanding the clinical utility of UA. Importantly, emerging data suggests that UA is also implicated in the pathogenesis of HF, which sheds light on UA as a feasible therapeutic target. Although to date clinical studies have not been able to prove the benefits of xanthine oxidase in HF patients, we discuss the putative role of UA and xanthine oxidase in the pathophysiology of HF as a therapeutic target.

Incremental prognostic value of cardiac metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging over the co-morbid burden in acute decompensated heart failure

Aims

Co‐morbidities are associated with poor clinical outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure, while cardiac iodine‐123 (I‐123) metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging provides prognostic information in such patients. We sought to prospectively investigate the incremental prognostic value of cardiac MIBG imaging over the co‐morbid burden, in patients admitted for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF).

Methods and results

In 433 consecutive ADHF patients with survival to discharge, we measured the co‐morbidity using age‐adjusted Charlson co‐morbidity index (ACCI), commonly employed to evaluate a weighted and scored co‐morbid condition, adding additional points for age. In cardiac MIBG imaging, the cardiac MIBG heart‐to‐mediastinum ratio (late HMR) was measured on the delayed image. Over a follow‐up period of 2.9 ± 1.5 years, 160 patients had a cardiac event (a composite of cardiac death and unplanned hospitalization for worsening heart failure). Patients with high ACCI (≥6: median value) had a significantly greater risk of a cardiac event. In multivariate Cox analysis, the ACCI and late HMR were significantly and independently associated with a cardiac event. In both high and low ACCI subgroups (ACCI ≥ 6 and <6, respectively), patients with low late HMR had a significantly greater risk of a cardiac event (high ACCI: 51% vs. 34% P = 0.0026, adjusted HR 1.74 [1.21–2.51]; low ACCI: 34% vs. 17%, P = 0.0228, adjusted HR 2.19 [1.10–4.37]).

Conclusions

Cardiac MIBG imaging could provide additional prognostic information over ACCI, which was also promoted to be a useful risk model, in patients admitted for ADHF.

Comparison among different multiparametric scores for risk stratification in heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction

Heart failure is a serious condition with high prevalence (about 2% in the adult population in developed countries, and more than 8% in patients older than 75 years). About 3–5% of hospital admissions are linked with heart failure incidents. The guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure have identified individual markers in patients with heart failure, including demographic data, aetiology, comorbidities, clinical, radiological, haemodynamic, echocardiographic and biochemical parameters. Several scoring systems have been proposed to identify adverse events, such as destabilizations, re-hospitalizations and mortality. This article reviews scoring systems for heart failure prognostication, with particular mention of those models with exercise tolerance objective definition. Although most of the models include readily available clinical information, quite a few of them comprise circulating levels of natriuretic peptides and a more objective evaluation of exercise tolerance. A literature review was also conducted to (a) identify heart failure risk-prediction models, (b) assess statistical approach, and (c) identify common variables.

The MECKI score initiative: Development and state of the art

The high morbidity and poor survival rates associated with chronic heart failure still represent a big challenge, despite improvements in treatments and the development of new therapeutic opportunities. The prediction of outcome in heart failure is gradually moving towards a multiparametric approach in order to obtain more accurate models and to tailor the prognostic evaluation to the individual characteristics of a single subject. The Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score was developed 10 years ago from 2715 patients and subsequently validated in a different population. The score allows an accurate evaluation of the risk of heart failure patients using only six variables that include the evaluation of the exercise capacity (peak oxygen uptake and ventilation/CO₂ production slope), blood samples (haemoglobin, Na⁺, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease) and echocardiography (left ventricular ejection fraction). Over the following years, the MECKI score was tested taking into account therapies and specific markers of heart failure, and it proved to be a simple, useful tool for risk stratification and for therapeutic strategies in heart failure patients. The close connection between the centres involved and the continuous updating of the data allow the participating sites to propose substudies on specific subpopulations based on a common dataset and to put together and develop new ideas and perspectives.

Risk stratification in heart failure with mild reduced ejection fraction

Heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction represents a heterogeneous and relatively young heart failure category accounting for nearly 20-30% of the overall heart failure population. Due to its complex phenotype, a reliable clinical picture of heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction patients as well as a definite risk stratification are still relevant unsolved issues. In such a context, there is growing interest in a comprehensive functional assessment by means of a cardiopulmonary exercise test, yet considered a cornerstone in the clinical management of patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction. Indeed, the cardiopulmonary exercise test has also been found to be particularly useful in the heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction category, several cardiopulmonary exercise test-derived parameters being associated with a poor outcome. In particular, a recent contribution by the metabolic exercise combined with cardiac and kidney indexes research group showed an independent association between the peak oxygen uptake and pure cardiovascular mortality in a large cohort of recovered heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction patients. Contextually, the same study supplied an easy approach to identify a high-risk heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction subset by using a combination of peak oxygen uptake and ventilatory efficiency cut-off values, namely 55% of the maximum predicted and 31, respectively. Thus, looking at the above-mentioned promising results and waiting for specific trials, it is reasonable to consider cardiopulmonary exercise test assessment as part of the heart failure with mid-range ejection fraction work-up in order to identify those patients with an unfavourable functional profile who probably deserve a close clinical follow-up and, probably, more aggressive therapeutic strategies.

Future developments in the MECKI score initiative

The Metabolic Exercise combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes [MECKI) score is a validated prognostic score for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction which combines commonly available clinical and metabolic parameters with two cardiopulmonary exercise test derived prognostic measurements. It has been validated to predict prognosis and to aid clinical decision making and it has been shown to be superior in predicting mortality compared with other commonly used prognostic scores for heart failure. In the future it would be valuable to establish whether the score holds true also in other settings, and in particular in under-represented groups – the elderly, women, and people of different ethnic backgrounds – and in other heart failure syndromes. In future it may be extended to assess its value in the presence of a range of co-morbidities such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary hypertension and frailty and cachexia as well as in other conditions such as hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, amyloid, asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction and hypertension. It may also be a candidate end-point for adaptive trials designed to prove an improvement in the MECKI score as an approvable interim end-point whilst larger mortality and morbidity trials are still underway.

The use of the CALL Risk Score for predicting mortality in Brazilian heart failure patients

Aims

This study aimed to develop and validate a simple method for predicting long‐term all‐cause mortality in ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) residing in an area where Chagas disease is endemic, which will be important not only for patients living in Latin America but also to those living in developed non‐endemic countries.

Methods and results

A total of 677 patients with a wide spectrum of aetiologies for left ventricular systolic dysfunction and receiving optimized evidence‐based treatment for CHF were prospectively followed for approximately 11 years. We established a risk score using Cox proportional hazard regression models. After multivariable analysis, four variables were independently associated with mortality and included in the CALL Risk Score: Chagas cardiomyopathy aetiology alone [hazard ratio, 3.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.61–4.33; P < 0.001], age ≥60 years (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06–1.74; P = 0.016), left anterior fascicular block (hazard ratio, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.27–2.11; P < 0.001), and left ventricular ejection fraction <40% (hazard ratio, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.30–2.28; P < 0.001). The internal validation considered the bootstrapping, a resampling technique recommended for prediction model development. Hence, we established a scoring system attributing weights according to each risk factor: 3 points for Chagas cardiomyopathy alone, 1 point for age ≥60 years, and 2 points each for left anterior fascicular block and left ventricular ejection fraction <40%. Three risk groups were identified: low risk (score ≤2 points), intermediate risk (score of 3 to 5 points), and high risk (score ≥6 points). High‐risk patients had more than two‐fold increase in mortality (26.9 events/100 patient‐years) compared with intermediate‐risk patients (10.1 events/100 patient‐years) and almost seven‐fold increase compared with low‐risk patients (4.3 events/100 patient‐years). The CALL Risk Score data sets from the development and internal validation cohorts both displayed suitable discrimination c‐index of 0.689 (95% CI, 0.688–0.690; P < 0.001) and 0.687 (95% CI, 0.686–0.688; P < 0.001), respectively, and satisfactory calibration [Greenwood–Nam–D'Agostino test (8) = 7.867; P = 0.447] and [Greenwood–Nam–D'Agostino test (8) = 10.08; P = 0.273], respectively.

Conclusions

The CALL Risk Score represents a simple and validated method with a limited number of non‐invasive variables that successfully predicts long‐term all‐cause mortality in a real‐world cohort of patients with CHF. Patients with CHF stratified as high risk according to the CALL Risk Score should be monitored and aggressively managed, including those with CHF secondary to Chagas disease.

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing - refining the clinical perspective by combining assessments

INTRODUCTION

Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is now established as a vital sign. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) is the gold-standard approach to assessing CRF.

AREAS COVERED

A body of literature spanning several decades clearly supports the clinical utility of CPX in those who are apparently health and at risk for chronic disease as well as numerous patient populations. While CPX, in and of itself, is a valid and reliable clinical assessment, combining findings with other available assessments may provide a more comprehensive perspective that enhances clinical decision making and outcomes. The current review will accomplish the following: (1) define key CPX measures based upon current evidence; and (2) describe the current evidence addressing the relationships between CPX and echocardiography, serum biomarkers, and cardiovascular magnetic resonance.

EXPERT OPINION

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing provides prognostic and diagnostic information in apparently healthy individuals, those at risk for one or more chronic conditions, as well as numerous patient populations. Moreover, if the goal of an intervention is to improve one or more systems integral to the physiologic response to exercise, CPX should be considered as a central assessment to gauge therapeutic efficacy. To further refine the information obtained from CPX, combining other assessments has demonstrated promise.

Risk prediction models for heart failure admissions in adults with congenital heart disease

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of death in adult patients with congenital heart disease (ACHD). No risk prediction model exists for HF hospitalization (HFH) for ACHD patients. We aimed to develop a clinically relevant one-year risk prediction system to identify ACHD patients at high risk for HFH.

METHODS

Data source was the Quebec CHD Database. A retrospective cohort including all ACHD patients aged 18-64 (1995-2010) was constructed for assessing the cumulative risk of HFH adjusting for competing risk of death. To identify one-year predictors of incident HFH, multivariable logistic regressions were employed to a nested case-control sample of all ACHD patients aged 18-64 in 2009. The final model was used to create a risk score system based on adjusted odds ratios.

RESULTS

The cohort included 29,991 ACHD patients followed for 648,457 person-years. The cumulative HFH risk by age 65 was 12.58%. The case-control sample comprised 26,420 subjects, of whom 189 had HFHs. Significant one-year predictors were age ≥ 50, male sex, CHD lesion severity, recent 12-month HFH history, pulmonary arterial hypertension, chronic kidney disease, coronary artery disease, systemic arterial hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. The created risk score ranged from 0 to 19. The corresponding HFH risk rose rapidly beyond a score of 8. The risk scoring system demonstrated excellent prediction performance.

CONCLUSIONS

One eighth of ACHD population experienced HFH before age 65. Age, sex, CHD lesion severity, recent 12-month HFH history, and comorbidities constructed a risk prediction model that successfully identified patients at high risk for HFH.

Management of low blood pressure in ambulatory heart failure with reduced ejection fraction patients

Low blood pressure is common in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). While spontaneous hypotension predicts risk in HFrEF, there is only limited evidence regarding the relationship between hypotension observed during heart failure (HF) drug titration and outcome. Nevertheless, hypotension (especially orthostatic hypotension) is an important factor limiting the titration of HFrEF treatments in routine practice. In patients with signs of shock and/or severe congestion, hospitalization is advised. However, in the very frequent cases of non-severe and asymptomatic hypotension observed while taking drugs with a class I indication in HFrEF, European and US guidelines recommend maintaining the same drug dosage. In instances of symptomatic or severe persistent hypotension (systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg), it is recommended to first decrease blood pressure reducing drugs not indicated in HFrEF as well as the loop diuretic dose in the absence of associated signs of congestion. Unless the management of hypotension appears urgent, a HF specialist should then be sought rather than stopping or decreasing drugs with a class I indication in HFrEF. If symptoms or severe hypotension persist, no recommendations exist. Our HF group reviewed available evidence and proposes certain steps to follow in such situations in order to improve the pharmacological management of these patients.

Apelin Improves Prognostic Value of HFSS (Heart Failure Survival Score) and MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure) Scales in Ambulatory Patients with End-Stage Heart Failure

This prospective study aimed to determine the effect of adding apelin to the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group In Chronic Heart Failure) and HFSS (Heart Failure Survival Score) scales for predicting one-year mortality in 240 ambulatory patients accepted for heart transplantation (HT) between 2015-2017. The study also investigated whether the combination of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with MAGGIC or HFSS improves the ability of these scales to effectively separate one-year survivors from non-survivors on the HT waiting list. The median age of the patients was 58.0 (51.50.0-64.0) years and 212 (88.3%) of them were male. Within a one year follow-up, 75 (31.2%) patients died. The area under the curves (AUC) for baseline parameters was as follows-0.7350 for HFSS, 0.7230 for MAGGIC, 0.7992 for apelin and 0.7028 for NT-proBNP. The HFSS-apelin score generated excellent power to predict the one-year survival, with the AUC of 0.8633 and a high sensitivity and specificity (80% and 78%, respectively). The predictive accuracy of MAGGIC-apelin score was also excellent (AUC: 0.8523, sensitivity of 75%, specificity of 79%). The addition of NT-proBNP to the HFSS model slightly improved the predictive power of this scale (AUC_{HFFSS-NT-proBNP}: 0.7665, sensitivity 83%, specificity 60%), while it did not affect the prognostic strength of MAGGIC (AUC_{MAGGIC-NT-proBNP}: 0.738, sensitivity 71%, specificity 69%). In conclusion, the addition of apelin to the HFSS and MAGGIC models significantly improved their ability to predict the one-year survival in patients with advanced HF. The MAGGIC-apelin and HFSS-apelin scores provide simple and powerful methods for risk stratification in end-stage HF patients. NT-proBNP slightly improved the prognostic power of HFSS, while it did not affect the predictive power of MAGGIC.

Clinical characteristics and long-term prognosis of ischemic and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy

Objectives

The different etiology of HF has different prognostic risk factors. Prognosis assessment of ICM and NICM has important clinical value. This study is aimed to explore the predicting factors for ICM and NICM.

Methods

1082 HFrEF patients were retrospectively enrolled from Jan. 01, 2016 to Dec. 31, 2017. On Jan. 31, 2019, 873 patients were enrolled for analysis excluding incomplete, unfollowed, and unexplained data. The patients were divided into ischemic and non-ischemic group. The differences in clinical characteristics and long-term prognosis between the two groups were analyzed, and multivariate Cox analysis was used to predict the respective all-cause mortality, SCD and rehospitalization of CHF.

Results

873 patients aged 64(53,73) were divided into two groups: ICM (403, 46.16%) and NICM. At the end, 203 died (111 in ICM, 54.68%), of whom 87 had SCD (53 in ICM, 60.92%) and 269 had rehospitalization for HF(134 in ICM, 49.81%). Independent risk factors affecting all-cause mortality in ICM: DM, previous hospitalization of HF, age, eGFR, LVEF; for SCD: PVB, eGFR, Hb, revascularization; for readmission of HF: low T3 syndrome, PVB, DM, previous hospitalization of HF, eGFR. Otherwise; factors affecting all-cause mortality in NICM: NYHA III-IV, paroxysmal AF/AFL, previous hospitalization of HF, β-blocker; for SCD: low T3 syndrome, PVB, nitrates, sodium, β-blocker; for rehospitalization of HF: paroxysmal AF/AFL, previous admission of HF, LVEF.

Conclusions

Both all-cause mortality and SCD in ICM is higher than that in NICM. Different etiologies of CHF have different risk factors affecting the prognosis.

Risk stratification in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure in Asian population

BACKGROUND

The AHEAD (A: atrial fibrillation; H: hemoglobin; E: elderly; A: abnormal renal parameters; D: diabetes mellitus) score may be suboptimal in predicting long-term mortality in Asian patients with acute heart failure (AHF). We aimed to propose and validate a risk score incorporating easily available echocardiographic parameters to improve risk stratification in Asian patients with AHF.

METHODS

A total of 3537 patients hospitalized for AHF were enrolled and divided into generation and validation cohorts. Independent predictors of all-cause mortality were identified by Cox regression analysis and scored by hazard ratios to constitute the model. Model performance was validated and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and net reclassification improvement (NRI).

RESULTS

In the generation cohort of 1775 patients (74.3±13.0 years, 69.9% men), there were 870 deaths (49.0%) during a mean follow-up of 24.7±13.8 months. Age, anemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate <50 ml/min/1.73 m, hyperuricemia, left ventricular ejection fraction <50% and right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP) >40 mmHg were independently related to mortality, which constituted "UR-HEARt" (U: uric acid, R: renal function, H: hemoglobin, E: ejection fraction of left ventricle, A: age, Rt: RVSP) score. Model performance was evaluated in the validation cohort (n = 1762), which outperformed AHEAD score by comparison of ROC curves in predicting all-cause mortality (area under curve [AUC] of UR-HEARt vs. AHEAD: 0.66 [95% CI 0.62-0.70] vs. 0.58 [95% CI 0.54-0.62]; p < 0.001), with NRI by 10.9% for all-cause mortality (p < 0.001) and 18.4% for cardiovascular death (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

UR-HEARt score, an easily accessible racial-specific risk score with integration of echocardiographic indices, improved risk stratification in Asian patients hospitalized for AHF.

Incremental prognostic value of echocardiography of left ventricular remodeling and diastolic function in STICH trial

Aims

We sought to determine which echocardiographic markers of left ventricular (LV) remodeling and diastolic dysfunction can contribute as incremental and independent prognostic information in addition to current clinical risk markers of ischemic LV systolic dysfunction in the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) trial.

Methods and results

The cohort consisted of 1511 of 2136 patients in STICH for whom baseline transmitral Doppler (E/A ratio) could be measured by an echocardiographic core laboratory blinded to treatment and outcomes, and prognostic value of echocardiographic variables was determined by a Cox regression model. E/A ratio was the most significant predictor of mortality amongst diastolic variables with lowest mortality for E/A closest 0.8, although mortality was consistently low for E/A 0.6 to 1.0. Mortality increased for E/A < 0.6 and > 1.0 up to approximately 2.3, beyond which there was no further increase in risk. Larger LV end-systolic volume index (LVESVI) and E/A < 0.6 and > 1.0 had incremental negative effects on mortality when added to a clinical multivariable model, where creatinine, LVESVI, age, and E/A ratio accounted for 74% of the prognostic information for predicting risk. LVESVI and E/A ratio were stronger predictors of prognosis than New York Heart Association functional class, anemia, diabetes, history of atrial fibrillation, and stroke.

Conclusions

Echocardiographic markers of advanced LV remodeling and diastolic dysfunction added incremental prognostic value to current clinical risk markers. LVESVI and E/A ratio outperformed other markers and should be considered as standard in assessing risks in ischemic heart failure. E/A closest to 0.8 was the most optimal filling pattern.

Cardiovascular Death Risk in Recovered Mid-Range Ejection Fraction Heart Failure: Insights From Cardiopulmonary Exercise Test

BACKGROUND

Heart failure with midrange ejection fraction (HFmrEF) represents a heterogeneous category where phenotype, as well as prognostic assessment, remains debated. The present study explores a specific HFmrEF subset, namely those who recovered from a reduced EF (rec-HFmrEF) and, particularly, it focuses on the possible additive prognostic role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed data from 4535 patients with HFrEF and 1176 patients with rec-HFmrEF from the Metabolic Exercise combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes database. The end point was cardiovascular death at 5 years. The median follow-up was 1343 days (25th-75th range 627-2403 days). Cardiovascular death occurred in 552 HFrEF and 61 rec-HFmrEF patients. The multivariate analysis confirmed an independent role of the MECKI score's variables in HFrEF (C-index = 0.744) whereas, in the rec-HFmrEF group, only age and peak oxygen uptake (pVO₂) remained associated to the end point (C-index = 0.745). A peak oxygen uptake of ≤55% of predicted and a ventilatory efficiency of ≥31 resulted as the most accurate cut-off values in the outcome prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

Present data support the cardiopulmonary exercise test and, particularly, the peak oxygen uptake, as a useful tool in the rec-HFmrEF prognostic assessment. A peak VO₂ of ≤55% predicted and ventilatory efficiency of ≥31 might help to identify a high-risk rec-HFmrEF subgroup.

Heart Failure: A Palliative Medicine Review of Disease, Therapies, and Medications With a Focus on Symptoms, Function, and Quality of Life

Despite significant advances in heart failure (HF) treatment, HF remains a progressive, extremely symptomatic, and terminal disease with a median survival of 2.1 years after diagnosis. HF often leads to a constellation of symptoms, including dyspnea, fatigue, depression, anxiety, insomnia, pain, and worsened cognitive function. Palliative care is an approach that improves the quality of life of patients and their caregivers facing the problems associated with life-threatening illness and therefore is well suited to support these patients. However, historically, palliative care has often focused on supporting patients with malignant disease, rather than a progressive chronic disease such as HF. Predicting mortality in patients with HF is challenging. The lack of obvious transition points in disease progression also raises challenges to primary care providers and specialists to know at what point to integrate palliative care during a patient's disease trajectory. Although therapies for HF often result in functional and symptomatic improvements including health-related quality of life (HRQL), some patients with HF do not demonstrate these benefits, including those patients with a preserved ejection fraction. Provision of palliative care for patients with HF requires an understanding of HF pathogenesis and common medications used for these patients, as well as an approach to balancing life-prolonging and HRQL care strategies. This review describes HF and current targeted therapies and their effects on symptoms, hospital admission rates, exercise performance, HRQL, and survival. Pharmacological interactions with and precautions related to commonly used palliative care medications are reviewed. The goal of this review is to equip palliative care clinicians with information to make evidence-based decisions while managing the balance between optimal disease management and patient quality of life.

Risk Assessment in Patients with a Left Ventricular Assist Device Across INTERMACS Profiles Using Bayesian Analysis

Current risk stratification models to predict outcomes after a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) are limited in scope. We assessed the performance of Bayesian models to stratify post-LVAD mortality across various International Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS or IM) Profiles, device types, and implant strategies. We performed a retrospective analysis of 10,206 LVAD patients recorded in the IM registry from 2012 to 2016. Using derived Bayesian algorithms from 8,222 patients (derivation cohort), we applied the risk-prediction algorithms to the remaining 2,055 patients (validation cohort). Risk of mortality was assessed at 1, 3, and 12 months post implant according to disease severity (IM profiles), device type (axial versus centrifugal) and strategy (bridge to transplantation or destination therapy). Fifteen percentage (n = 308) were categorized as IM profile 1, 36% (n = 752) as profile 2, 33% (n = 672) as profile 3, and 15% (n = 311) as profile 4-7 in the validation cohort. The Bayesian algorithms showed good discrimination for both short-term (1 and 3 months) and long-term (1 year) mortality for patients with severe HF (Profiles 1-3), with the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) between 0.63 and 0.74. The algorithms performed reasonably well in both axial and centrifugal devices (AUC, 0.68-0.74), as well as bridge to transplantation or destination therapy indication (AUC, 0.66-0.73). The performance of the Bayesian models at 1 year was superior to the existing risk models. Bayesian algorithms allow for risk stratification after LVAD implantation across different IM profiles, device types, and implant strategies.

Heart failure mortality prediction using PRISM score and development of a classification and regression tree model to refer patients for palliative care consultation

INTRODUCTION

We sought to assess one-year mortality in heart failure (HF) patients by using (Placement Resource Indicator for Systems Management) PRISM, a disease nonspecific risk stratification score, and use it along with modified Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) to guide patient selection for palliative care consultation.

METHODS

A retrospective study design was used to examine 1-year mortality in 689 HF patients admitted from 2012 to 2014. One-year mortality was calculated using Pmort30/PRISM and modified SHFM scores, and the predicted scores were validated using the area under the ROC curve. CART was used to develop an algorithm to classify patients based on their mortality risk.

RESULTS

The discriminatory ability of PRISM categorical score (AUC = 0.701) was not significantly different than the discriminatory ability of modified SHFM (AUC = 0.686) (DeLong's test p = 0.56) but improved significantly with the combination of PRISM (categorical) score + modified SHFM (AUC = 0.740) (p = 0.002). The predictive capability of the CART tree model after cross-validation was 72.2% (AUC 0.631).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests PRISM score performed as well as modified SHFM for one-year mortality prediction. Moreover, the addition of modified SHFM to PRISM score increases discriminatory ability in predicting 1-year mortality in heart failure patients compared to either of the two models alone. Together, when combined in a CART model, they can be used to identify the population subset with the highest mortality risk and hence guide goals of care discussion.

Cardiac Contractility Modulation Attenuates Chronic Heart Failure in a Rabbit Model via the PI3K/AKT Pathway

The Akt plays an important role in regulating cardiac growth, myocardial angiogenesis, and cell death in cardiac myocytes. However, there are few studies to focus on the responses of the Akt pathway to cardiac contractility modulation (CCM) in a chronic heart failure (HF) model. In this study, the effects of CCM on the treatment of HF in a rabbit model were investigated. Thirty six-month-old rabbits were randomly separated into control, HF, and CCM groups. The rabbits in HF and CCM groups were pressure uploaded, which can cause an aortic constriction. Then, CCM was gradually injected to the myocardium of rabbits in the CCM group, and this process lasted for four weeks with six hours per day. Rabbit body weight, heart weight, and heart beating rates were recorded during the experiment. To assess the CCM impacts, rabbit myocardial histology was examined as well. Additionally, western blot analysis was employed to measure the protein levels of Akt, FOXO3, Beclin, Pi3k, mTOR, GSK-3β, and TORC2 in the myocardial histology of rabbits. Results showed that the body and heart weight of rabbits decreased significantly after suffering HF when compared with those in the control group. However, they gradually recovered after CCM application. The CCM significantly decreased collagen volume fraction in myocardial histology of HF rabbits, indicating that CCM therapy attenuated myocardial fibrosis and collagen deposition. The levels of Akt, FOXO3, Beclin, mTOR, GSK-3β, and TORC2 were significantly downregulated, but Pi3k concentration was greatly upregulated after CCM utilization. Based on these findings, it was concluded that CCM could elicit positive effects on HF therapy, which was potentially due to the variation in the Pi3k/Akt signaling pathway.

Gender and age normalization and ventilation efficiency during exercise in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction

Aims

Ventilation vs. carbon dioxide production (VE/VCO₂) is among the strongest cardiopulmonary exercise testing prognostic parameters in heart failure (HF). It is usually reported as an absolute value. The current definition of normal VE/VCO₂ slope values is inadequate, since it was built from small groups of subjects with a particularly limited number of women and elderly. We aimed to define VE/VCO₂ slope prediction formulas in a sizable population and to test whether the prognostic power of VE/VCO₂ slope in HF was different if expressed as a percentage of the predicted value or as an absolute value.

Methods and results

We calculated the linear regressions between age and VE/VCO₂ slope in 1136 healthy subjects (68% male, age 44.9 ± 14.5, range 13–83 years). We then applied age‐adjusted and sex‐adjusted formulas to predict VE/VCO₂ slope to HF patients included in the metabolic exercise test data combined with cardiac and kidney indexes score database, which counts 6112 patients (82% male, age 61.4 ± 12.8, left ventricular ejection fraction 33.2 ± 10.5%, peakVO₂ 14.8 ± 4.9, mL/min/kg, VE/VCO₂ slope 32.7 ± 7.7) from 24 HF centres. Finally, we evaluated whether the use of absolute values vs. percentages of predicted VE/VCO₂ affected HF prognosis prediction (composite of cardiovascular mortality + urgent transplant or left ventricular assist device). We did so in the entire cardiac and kidney indexes score population and separately in HF patients with severe (peakVO₂ < 14 mL/min/kg, n = 2919, 61.1 events/1000 pts/year) or moderate (peakVO₂ ≥ 14 mL/min/kg, n = 3183, 19.9 events/1000 pts/year) HF. In the healthy population, we obtained the following equations: female, VE/VCO₂ = 0.052 × Age + 23.808 (r = 0.192); male, VE/VCO₂ = 0.095 × Age + 20.227 (r = 0.371) (P = 0.007). We applied these formulas to calculate the percentages of predicted VE/VCO₂ values. The 2‐year survival prognostic power of VE/VCO₂ slope was strong, and it was similar if expressed as absolute value or as a percentage of predicted value (AUCs 0.686 and 0.690, respectively). In contrast, in severe HF patients, AUCs significantly differed between absolute values (0.637) and percentages of predicted values (0.650, P = 0.0026). Moreover, VE/VCO₂ slope expressed as a percentage of predicted value allowed to reclassify 6.6% of peakVO₂ < 14 mL/min/kg patients (net reclassification improvement = 0.066, P = 0.0015).

Conclusions

The percentage of predicted VE/VCO₂ slope value strengthens the prognostic power of VE/VCO₂ in severe HF patients, and it should be preferred over the absolute value for HF prognostication. Furthermore, the widespread use of VE/VCO₂ slope expressed as percentage of predicted value can improve our ability to identify HF patients at high risk, which is a goal of utmost clinical relevance.

Relation of Increasing QRS Duration Over Time and Cardiovascular Events in Outpatients With Heart Failure

An increase in the duration of the QRS complex over time has been shown to be associated with poor clinical outcomes in specific subgroups of heart failure (HF) patients. There is a paucity of data on the clinical impact of increasing QRS duration on outcomes in HF with narrow QRS duration. This was a retrospective study of consecutive adult referrals to a tertiary outpatient HF clinic over a 2-year period. All patients with a narrow QRS, (<130 ms) were included. The primary outcome was mortality. Secondary outcomes were HF hospitalization and a composite of HF hospitalization, implantation of cardiac resynchronization therapy or left ventricular assist device and cardiac transplant. A total of 253 patients with 2 or more QRS measurments were included. Death occurred in 41 patients (16%), 258 HF hospitalizations occurred in 116 patients (46%) and the composite occurred in 127 patients (50%). Multivariable analyses found that a rate of QRS duration change of ≥1 ms/month was independently associated with increased mortality (odds ratio [OR] 2.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04 to 4.91), HF hospitalization (relative risk [RR] 2.01, 95% CI 1.37 to 2.94), and the composite (OR 2.40, 95%CI 1.44 to 4.02). A new QRS >130 ms was also independently associated with mortality (OR 3.27, 95%CI 1.29-8.32), HF hospitalization (RR 2.75, 95% CI 1.72 to 4.4) and the composite (OR 2.52, 95%CI 1.27 to 4.99). In conclusion, in patients with HF and a narrow baseline QRS, an increase in QRS duration of ≥1 ms per month is associated with increased mortality and HF hospitalization. HF patients may benefit from serial monitoring of QRS duration.

Impact of Socioeconomic Factors on Patient Desire for Early LVAD Therapy Prior to Inotrope Dependence

BACKGROUND

Worsening heart failure (HF) and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) have been shown to impact the decision to proceed with left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation, but little is known about how socioeconomic factors influence expressed patient preference for LVAD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Ambulatory patients with advanced systolic HF (n=353) reviewed written information about LVAD therapy and completed a brief survey to indicate whether they would want an LVAD to treat their current level of HF. Ordinal logistic regression analyses identified clinical and demographic predictors of LVAD preference. Higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, worse HRQOL measured by Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire, lower education level, and lower income were significant univariable predictors of patients wanting an LVAD. In the multivariable model, higher NYHA class (OR [odds ratio]: 1.43, CI [confidence interval]: 1.08-1.90, P = .013) and lower income level (OR: 2.10, CI: 1.18 - 3.76, P = .012 for <$40,000 vs >$80,000) remained significantly associated with wanting an LVAD.

CONCLUSION

Among ambulatory patients with advanced systolic HF, treatment preference for LVAD was influenced by level of income independent of HF severity. Understanding the impact of socioeconomic factors on willingness to consider LVAD therapy may help tailor counseling towards individual needs.

Exercise oscillatory ventilation and prognosis in heart failure patients with reduced and mid-range ejection fraction

AIMS

Exercise oscillatory ventilation (EOV) is a pivotal cardiopulmonary exercise test parameter for the prognostic evaluation of patients with chronic heart failure (HF). It has been described in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (<40%, HFrEF) and with HF with preserved ejection fraction (>50%, HFpEF), but no data are available for patients with HF with mid-range ejection fraction (40-49%, HFmrEF). The aim of the study was to evaluate the prognostic role of EOV in HFmrEF patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analysed 1239 patients with HFmrEF and 4482 patients with HFrEF, enrolled in the MECKI score database, with a 2-year follow-up. The study endpoint was the composite of cardiovascular death, urgent heart transplant, and ventricular assist device implantation. We identified EOV in 968 cases (16% and 17% of cases in HFmrEF and HFrEF, respectively). HFrEF EOV+ patients were significantly older, and their parameters suggested a more severe HF than HFrEF EOV- patients. A similar behaviour was found in HFmrEF EOV+ vs. EOV- patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis, irrespective of ejection fraction, showed that EOV is associated with a worse survival, and that patients with HFrEF and HFmrEF EOV+ had a significantly worse outcome than the EOV- of the same ejection fraction groups. EOV-associated survival differences in HFmrEF patients started after 18 months of follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Exercise oscillatory ventilation has a similar prevalence and ominous prognostic value in both HFmrEF and HFrEF patients, indicating a group of patients in need of a more intensive follow-up and a more aggressive therapy. In HFmrEF, the survival curves between EOV+ and EOV- patients diverged only after 18 months.

Hyponatremia in Heart Failure: Pathogenesis and Management

Hyponatremia is a very common electrolyte abnormality, associated with poor short- and long-term outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). Two opposite processes can result in hyponatremia in this setting: Volume overload with dilutional hypervolemic hyponatremia from congestion, and hypovolemic hyponatremia from excessive use of natriuretics. These two conditions require different therapeutic approaches. While sodium in the form of normal saline can be lifesaving in the second case, the same treatment would exacerbate hyponatremia in the first case. Hypervolemic hyponatremia in HF patients is multifactorial and occurs mainly due to the persistent release of arginine vasopressin (AVP) in the setting of ineffective renal perfusion secondary to low cardiac output. Fluid restriction and loop diuretics remain mainstay treatments for hypervolemic/dilutional hyponatremia in patients with HF. In recent years, a few strategies, such as AVP antagonists (Tolvaptan, Conivaptan, and Lixivaptan), and hypertonic saline in addition to loop diuretics, have been proposed as potentially promising treatment options for this condition. This review aimed to summarize the current literature on pathogenesis and management of hyponatremia in patients with HF.