Approaches to refining estimates of global burden and economics of dengue

Understanding dengue virus evolution to support epidemic surveillance and counter-measure development

Dengue virus (DENV) causes a profound burden of morbidity and mortality, and its global burden is rising due to the co-circulation of four divergent DENV serotypes in the ecological context of globalization, travel, climate change, urbanization, and expansion of the geographic range of the Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus vectors. Understanding DENV evolution offers valuable opportunities to enhance surveillance and response to DENV epidemics via advances in RNA virus sequencing, bioinformatics, phylogenetic and other computational biology methods. Here we provide a scoping overview of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of DENV and the range of ways that evolutionary analyses can be applied as a public health tool against this arboviral pathogen.

Clinical, laboratory, and demographic determinants of hospitalization due to dengue in 7613 patients: A retrospective study based on hierarchical models

In Brazil, the incidence of hospitalization due to dengue, as an indicator of severity, has drastically increased since 1998. The objective of our study was to identify risk factors associated with subsequent hospitalization related to dengue. We analyzed 7613 dengue confirmed via serology (ELISA), non-structural protein 1, or polymerase chain reaction amplification. We used a hierarchical framework to generate a multivariate logistic regression based on a variety of risk variables. This was followed by multiple statistical analyses to assess hierarchical model accuracy, variance, goodness of fit, and whether or not this model reliably represented the population. The final model, which included age, sex, ethnicity, previous dengue infection, hemorrhagic manifestations, plasma leakage, and organ failure, showed that all measured parameters, with the exception of previous dengue, were statistically significant. The presence of organ failure was associated with the highest risk of subsequent dengue hospitalization (OR=5·75; CI=3·53-9·37). Therefore, plasma leakage and organ failure were the main indicators of hospitalization due to dengue, although other variables of minor importance should also be considered to refer dengue patients to hospital treatment, which may lead to a reduction in avoidable deaths as well as costs related to dengue.

Potential for broad-scale transmission of Ebola virus disease during the West Africa crisis: lessons for the Global Health security agenda

Background

The 2014–2016 Ebola crisis in West Africa had approximately eight times as many reported deaths as the sum of all previous Ebola outbreaks. The outbreak magnitude and occurrence of multiple Ebola cases in at least seven countries beyond Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, hinted at the possibility of broad-scale transmission of Ebola.

Main text

Using a modeling tool developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the Ebola outbreak, we estimated the number of Ebola cases that might have occurred had the disease spread beyond the three countries in West Africa to cities in other countries at high risk for disease transmission (based on late 2014 air travel patterns). We estimated Ebola cases in three scenarios: a delayed response, a Liberia-like response, and a fast response scenario. Based on our estimates of the number of Ebola cases that could have occurred had Ebola spread to other countries beyond the West African foci, we emphasize the need for improved levels of preparedness and response to public health threats, which is the goal of the Global Health Security Agenda. Our estimates suggest that Ebola could have potentially spread widely beyond the West Africa foci, had local and international health workers and organizations not committed to a major response effort. Our results underscore the importance of rapid detection and initiation of an effective, organized response, and the challenges faced by countries with limited public health systems. Actionable lessons for strengthening local public health systems in countries at high risk of disease transmission include increasing health personnel, bolstering primary and critical healthcare facilities, developing public health infrastructure (e.g. laboratory capacity), and improving disease surveillance. With stronger local public health systems infectious disease outbreaks would still occur, but their rapid escalation would be considerably less likely, minimizing the impact of public health threats such as Ebola.

Conclusions

The Ebola outbreak could have potentially spread to other countries, where limited public health surveillance and response capabilities may have resulted in additional foci. Health security requires robust local health systems that can rapidly detect and effectively respond to an infectious disease outbreak.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-017-0373-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Pathogen reduction/inactivation of products for the treatment of bleeding disorders: what are the processes and what should we say to patients?

Patients with blood disorders (including leukaemia, platelet function disorders and coagulation factor deficiencies) or acute bleeding receive blood-derived products, such as red blood cells, platelet concentrates and plasma-derived products. Although the risk of pathogen contamination of blood products has fallen considerably over the past three decades, contamination is still a topic of concern. In order to counsel patients and obtain informed consent before transfusion, physicians are required to keep up to date with current knowledge on residual risk of pathogen transmission and methods of pathogen removal/inactivation. Here, we describe pathogens relevant to transfusion of blood products and discuss contemporary pathogen removal/inactivation procedures, as well as the potential risks associated with these products: the risk of contamination by infectious agents varies according to blood product/region, and there is a fine line between adequate inactivation and functional impairment of the product. The cost implications of implementing pathogen inactivation technology are also considered.

Analysis of Dengue Serotype 4 in Sri Lanka during the 2012-2013 Dengue Epidemic

The four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV-1, -2, -3, and -4) have had a rapidly expanding geographic range and are now endemic in over 100 tropical and subtropical countries. Sri Lanka has experienced periodic dengue outbreaks since the 1960s, but since 1989 epidemics have become progressively larger and associated with more severe disease. The dominant virus in the 2012 epidemic was DENV-1, but DENV-4 infections were also commonly observed. DENV-4 transmission was first documented in Sri Lanka when it was isolated from a traveler in 1978, but has been comparatively uncommon since dengue surveillance began in the early 1980s. To better understand the molecular epidemiology of DENV-4 infections in Sri Lanka, we conducted whole-genome sequencing on dengue patient samples from two different geographic locations. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that all sequenced DENV-4 strains belong to genotype 1 and are most closely related to DENV-4 viruses previously found in Sri Lanka and those recently found to be circulating in India and Pakistan.

Dengue: The break-bone fever outbreak in Kerala, India

Recently a shocking intensification of dengue cases has also been seen in India in 2017. The common serotype of Dengue Asian genotype of DENV-1 was detected in South India in 2012.

Dengue Symptoms Significance in Anti-Dengue Drug Development: Road Less Travelled

Dengue outbreak has affected rural areas of Delhi-NCR, Haryana widely but it lacks in surveillance. High cases of dengue symptoms were reported in these regions whereas dengue symptoms have been a neglected issue in the anti-dengue drug development. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the status of the dengue infection, a rural issue of Delhi-NCR, Haryana and to identify the significance of dengue symptoms in anti-dengue drug development. The study was conducted when there is high chance of dengue infection i.e. from August 2015 to October 2015 at OPD Unit of PR Institute of Medical Science & Research, Delhi-NCR, Sonepat. It includes 158 patients from 24 rural areas of Haryana comprising both males and females from different age groups. Out of 20% cases, 6% were IgG-Positive, 9% were IgMPositive and 88% were NS1-Positive and rest 80% was normal. It includes 44% cases of thrombocytopenia. Badkhalsa village (28%), age group 18-24 (34%) and males (63%) reported cases of high infection. It was found that people with fewer platelet counts (Rai village) were not suffering from dengue whereas people with more platelet count reported dengue infection (Badkhalsa village).

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION

This study focuses on new research directions by highlighting the dengue symptoms importance in anti-dengue drug development also it is a first attempt to investigate the status of dengue, a rural issue of Delhi-NCR, Haryana and suggests that health authorities and people living in these regions should take initiatives for better health.

Socioeconomic and environmental determinants of dengue transmission in an urban setting: An ecological study in Nouméa, New Caledonia

Background

Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that causes extensive morbidity and economic loss in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Often present in cities, dengue virus is rapidly spreading due to urbanization, climate change and increased human movements. Dengue cases are often heterogeneously distributed throughout cities, suggesting that small-scale determinants influence dengue urban transmission. A better understanding of these determinants is crucial to efficiently target prevention measures such as vector control and education. The aim of this study was to determine which socioeconomic and environmental determinants were associated with dengue incidence in an urban setting in the Pacific.

Methodology

An ecological study was performed using data summarized by neighborhood (i.e. the neighborhood is the unit of analysis) from two dengue epidemics (2008–2009 and 2012–2013) in the city of Nouméa, the capital of New Caledonia. Spatial patterns and hotspots of dengue transmission were assessed using global and local Moran’s I statistics. Multivariable negative binomial regression models were used to investigate the association between dengue incidence and various socioeconomic and environmental factors throughout the city.

Principal findings

The 2008–2009 epidemic was spatially structured, with clusters of high and low incidence neighborhoods. In 2012–2013, dengue incidence rates were more homogeneous throughout the city. In all models tested, higher dengue incidence rates were consistently associated with lower socioeconomic status (higher unemployment, lower revenue or higher percentage of population born in the Pacific, which are interrelated). A higher percentage of apartments was associated with lower dengue incidence rates during both epidemics in all models but one. A link between vegetation coverage and dengue incidence rates was also detected, but the link varied depending on the model used.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates a robust spatial association between dengue incidence rates and socioeconomic status across the different neighborhoods of the city of Nouméa. Our findings provide useful information to guide policy and help target dengue prevention efforts where they are needed most.

Dengue virus is rapidly spreading throughout tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, possibly aided by environmental change, urbanization and/or increase in human mobility. Already present in 120 countries, dengue virus causes extensive disease burden and generates large economic costs. As dengue is mosquito-borne, its transmission pattern is strongly influenced by climate. However, dengue cases are not always distributed evenly throughout cities, where climate can be assumed to be homogenous. This suggests that other factors which are heterogeneously distributed in cities could play a role in dengue transmission, such as socioeconomic status and environmental factors (both natural and built). Identifying those factors is crucial to develop and target dengue prevention interventions, such as mosquito control and education. Our study uses dengue incidence statistics from two large epidemics in Nouméa, the capital of New Caledonia, to investigate which socioeconomic or environmental factors correlate with dengue incidence in an urban setting. Dengue incidence was consistently higher in neighborhoods where socioeconomic status was lower (i.e. lower revenue or higher unemployment) and often higher where the proportion of single-family houses in all buildings was higher. Our data suggest that, if resources are limited, prevention measures should be targeted in priority towards neighborhoods of lower socioeconomic status.

Disease Burden of Dengue in the Philippines: Adjusting for Underreporting by Comparing Active and Passive Dengue Surveillance in Punta Princesa, Cebu City

AbstractDengue virus (DENV) is a serious threat to public health. Having reliable estimates of the burden of dengue is important to inform policy and research, but surveillance systems are not designed to capture all symptomatic DENV infections. We derived the rate of reporting of dengue by comparing active surveillance of symptomatic DENV infections in a prospective community-based seroepidemiological cohort study (N = 1008) of acute febrile illness in Punta Princesa, Cebu City, Philippines, with passive surveillance data from the Cebu City Health Department. Febrile episodes detected in a weekly follow-up of participants were tested for serotype-specific DENV by hemi-nested reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (nested RT-PCR) and acute/convalescent blood samples tested by dengue IgM/IgG enzyme immunoassay. We estimated the burden of dengue in the Philippines in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte-Carlo simulations to address uncertainty. The results showed a 21% cumulative reporting rate of symptomatic DENV infections, equivalent to an expansion factor of 4.7 (95% certainty level [CL]: 2.2-15.1). Based on surveillance data in the Philippines for 2010-2014, we estimated 794,255 annual dengue episodes (95% CL: 463,000-2,076,000) and a disease burden of 535 (95% CL: 380-994) DALYs per million population using age weights and time discounting and 997 (95% CL: 681-1,871) DALYs per million population without age and time adjustments. Dengue imposes a substantial burden in the Philippines; almost 10 times higher than estimated for rabies, about twice the burden of intestinal fluke infections, and about 10% of the burden of tuberculosis. Our estimates should inform policy makers and raise awareness among the public.

The significance of Hsp70 subnetwork for Dengue virus lifecycle

Viruses hijack host machineries for replicating themselves efficiently. Host protein quality control machineries (QC) not only assist protein folding to form bona fide proteins with active functions but also get rid of un/misfolded proteins via degradation to maintain the protein homeostasis. Previous studies have reported that viruses utilize QC at various steps for their lifecycles. Recently we defined Hsp70s and their cochaperones, DnaJs functions on Dengue lifecycle. Here we summarize the significance of QC on Dengue virus.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Dengue Disease in Latin America and in the Caribbean: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Dengue, an important mosquito-borne virus transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti, is a major public health issue in Latin America and the Caribbean. National epidemiological surveillance systems, usually based on passive detection of symptomatic cases, while underestimating the true burden of dengue disease, can provide valuable insight into disease trends and excess reporting and potential outbreaks. We carried out a systematic review of the literature to characterize the recent epidemiology of dengue disease in Latin America and the English-speaking and Hispanic Caribbean Islands. We identified 530 articles, 60 of which met criteria for inclusion. In general, dengue seropositivity across the region was high and increased with age. All four virus serotypes were reported to circulate in the region. These observations varied considerably between and within countries and over time, potentially due to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity) and their effect on mosquito densities and differences in socioeconomic factors. This review provides important insight into the major epidemiological characteristics of dengue in distinct regions of Latin America and the Caribbean, allowing gaps in current knowledge and future research needs to be identified.

Dengue: knowledge gaps, unmet needs, and research priorities

Dengue virus is a mosquito-borne pathogen that causes up to about 100 million cases of disease each year, placing a major public health, social, and economic burden on numerous low-income and middle-income countries. Major advances by investigators, vaccine developers, and affected communities are revealing new insights and enabling novel interventions and approaches to dengue prevention and control. Such research has highlighted further questions about both the basic understanding of dengue and efforts to develop new tools. In this report, the third in a Series on dengue, we discuss existing approaches to dengue diagnostics, disease prognosis, surveillance, and vector control in low-income and middle-income countries, as well as potential consequences of vaccine introduction. We also summarise current knowledge and recent insights into dengue epidemiology, immunology, and pathogenesis, and their implications for understanding natural infection and current and future vaccines.

Disease and economic burdens of dengue

The burden of dengue is large and growing. More than half of the global population lives in areas with risk of dengue transmission. Uncertainty in burden estimates, however, challenges policy makers' ability to set priorities, allocate resources, and plan for interventions. In this report, the first in a Series on dengue, we explore the estimations of disease and economic burdens of dengue, and the major estimation challenges, limitations, and sources of uncertainty. We also reflect on opportunities to remedy these deficiencies. Point estimates of apparent dengue infections vary widely, although the confidence intervals of these estimates overlap. Cost estimates include different items, are mostly based on a single year of data, use different monetary references, are calculated from different perspectives, and are difficult to compare. Comprehensive estimates that decompose the cost by different stakeholders (as proposed in our framework), that consider the cost of epidemic years, and that account for productivity and tourism losses, are scarce. On the basis of these estimates, we propose the most comprehensive framework for estimating the economic burden of dengue in any region, differentiated by four very different domains of cost items and by three potential stakeholders who bear the costs. This framework can inform future estimations of the economic burden of dengue and generate demand for additional routine administrative data collection, or for systematic incorporation of additional questions in nationally representative surveys in dengue-endemic countries. Furthermore, scholars could use the framework to guide scenario simulations that consider ranges of possible values for cost items for which data are not yet available. Results would be valuable to policy makers and would also raise awareness among communities, potentially improving dengue control efforts.

Dengue virus surveillance: Detection of DENV-4 in the city of São José do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil

Dengue viruses are the most common arbovirus infection worldwide and are caused by four distinct serotypes of the dengue virus (DENV). In the present study, we assessed DENV transmission in São José do Rio Preto (SJRP) from 2010 to 2014. We analyzed blood samples from febrile patients who were attended at health care centers in SJRP. DENV detection was performed using multiplex RT-PCR, using flavivirus generic primers, based on the genes of the non-structural protein (NS5), followed by nested-PCR assay with species-specific primers. We analyzed 1549 samples, of which 1389 were positive for NS1 by rapid test. One thousand and eight-seven samples (78%) were confirmed as positive by multiplex RT-PCR: DENV-4, 48.5% (528/1087); DENV-1, 41.5% (449/1087); DENV-2, 9.5% (104/1087); and co-infection (5 DENV-1/DENV-4, 1 DENV-1/DENV-2), 0.5% (6/1087). Phylogenetic analysis of the DENV-4 grouped the isolates identified in this study with the American genotype and the showed a relationship between isolates from SJRP and isolates from the northern region of South America. Taken together, our data shows the detection and emergence of new dengue genotype in a new region and reiterate the importance of surveillance programs to detect and trace the evolution of DENV.

A prospective cohort study to assess seroprevalence, incidence, knowledge, attitudes and practices, willingness to pay for vaccine and related risk factors in dengue in a high incidence setting

Background

Dengue is one of the most important vector-borne diseases in the world, causing significant morbidity and economic impact. In Colombia, dengue is a major public health problem. Departments of La Guajira, Cesar and Magdalena are dengue endemic areas. The objective of this research is to determine the seroprevalence and the incidence of dengue virus infection in the participating municipalities from these Departments, and also establish the association between individual and housing factors and vector indices with seroprevalence and incidence. We will also assess knowledge, attitudes and practices, and willingness-to-pay for dengue vaccine.

Methods

A cohort study will be assembled with a clustered multistage sampling in 11 endemic municipalities. Approximately 1000 homes will be visited to enroll people older than one year who living in these areas, who will be followed for 1 year. Dengue virus infections will be evaluated using IgG indirect ELISA and IgM and IgG capture ELISA. Additionally, vector indices will be measured, and adult mosquitoes will be captured with aspirators. Ovitraps will be used for continuous estimation of vector density.

Discussion

This research will generate necessary knowledge to design and implement strategies with a multidimensional approach that reduce dengue morbidity and mortality in La Guajira and other departments from Colombian Caribbean.

Dengue Dynamics and Vaccine Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in the Philippines

Dengue is one of the most problematic vector-borne diseases in the Philippines, with an estimated 842,867 cases resulting in medical costs of $345 million U.S. dollars annually. In December 2015, the first dengue vaccine, known as chimeric yellow fever virus-dengue virus tetravalent dengue vaccine, was approved for use in the Philippines and is given to children 9 years of age. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in the Philippines, we developed an age-structured model of dengue transmission and vaccination. Using our model, we compared two vaccination scenarios entailing routine vaccination programs both with and without catch-up vaccination. Our results indicate that the higher the cost of vaccination, the less cost-effective the dengue vaccination program. With the current dengue vaccination program that vaccinates children 9 years of age, dengue vaccination is cost-effective for vaccination costs up to $70 from a health-care perspective and up to $75 from a societal perspective. Under a favorable scenario consisting of 1 year of catch-up vaccinations that target children 9-15 years of age, followed by regular vaccination of 9-year-old children, vaccination is cost-effective at costs up to $72 from a health-care perspective and up to $78 from a societal perspective. In general, dengue vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of both dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever /dengue shock syndrome. Our results demonstrate that even at relatively low vaccine efficacies, age-targeted vaccination may still be cost-effective provided the vaccination cost is sufficiently low.

Potential impact of dengue vaccination: Insights from two large-scale phase III trials with a tetravalent dengue vaccine

BACKGROUND

A tetravalent dengue vaccine demonstrated its protective efficacy in two phase III efficacy studies. Results from these studies were used to derive vaccination impact in the five Asian (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam) and the five Latin American countries (Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Mexico and Puerto Rico) participating in these trials.

METHODS

Vaccination impact was investigated with an age-structured, host-vector, serotype-specific compartmental model. Parameters related to vaccine efficacy and levels of dengue transmission were estimated using data collected during the phase III efficacy studies. Several vaccination programs, including routine vaccination at different ages with and without large catch-up campaigns, were investigated.

RESULTS

All vaccination programs explored translated into significant reductions in dengue cases at the population level over the first 10years following vaccine introduction and beyond. The most efficient age for vaccination varied according to transmission intensity and 9years was close to the most efficient age across all settings. The combination of routine vaccination and large catch-up campaigns was found to enable a rapid reduction of dengue burden after vaccine introduction.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis suggests that dengue vaccination can significantly reduce the public health impact of dengue in countries where the disease is endemic.

Symptomatic Dengue Disease in Five Southeast Asian Countries: Epidemiological Evidence from a Dengue Vaccine Trial

Dengue incidence has increased globally, but empirical burden estimates are scarce. Prospective methods are best-able to capture all severities of disease. CYD14 was an observer-blinded dengue vaccine study conducted in children 2-14 years of age in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam. The control group received no vaccine and resembled a prospective, observational study. We calculated the rates of dengue according to different laboratory or clinical criteria to make inferences about dengue burden, and compared with rates reported in the passive surveillance systems to calculate expansion factors which describe under-reporting. Over 6,933 person-years of observation in the control group there were 319 virologically confirmed dengue cases, a crude attack rate of 4.6%/year. Of these, 92 cases (28.8%) were clinically diagnosed as dengue fever or dengue hemorrhagic fever by investigators and 227 were not, indicating that most symptomatic disease fails to satisfy existing case definitions. When examining different case definitions, there was an inverse relationship between clinical severity and observed incidence rates. CYD14's active surveillance system captured a greater proportion of symptomatic dengue than national passive surveillance systems, giving rise to expansion factors ranging from 0.5 to 31.7. This analysis showed substantial, unpredictable and variable under-reporting of symptomatic dengue, even within a controlled clinical trial environment, and emphasizes that burden estimates are highly sensitive to case definitions. These data will assist in generating disease burden estimates and have important policy implications when considering the introduction and health economics of dengue prevention and control interventions.

The use of mosquito repellents at three sites in India with declining malaria transmission: surveys in the community and clinic

Background

Repellents such as coils, vaporizers, mats and creams can be used to reduce the risk of malaria and other infectious diseases. Although evidence for their effectiveness is limited, they are advertised as providing an additional approach to mosquito control in combination with other strategies, e.g. insecticide-treated nets. We examined the use of repellents in India in an urban setting in Chennai (mainly Plasmodium vivax malaria), a peri-urban setting in Nadiad (both P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria), and a more rural setting in Raurkela (mainly P. falciparum malaria).

Methods

The use of repellents was examined at the household level during a census, and at the individual level in cross-sectional surveys and among patients visiting a clinic with fever or other symptoms. Factors associated with their use were examined in a multivariate analysis, and the association between malaria and the use of repellents was assessed among survey- and clinic participants.

Results

Characteristics of participants differed by region, with more people of higher education present in Chennai. Use of repellents varied between 56–77 % at the household level and between 32–78 % at the individual level. Vaporizers were the main repellents used in Chennai, whereas coils were more common in Nadiad and Raurkela. In Chennai and Nadiad, vaporizers were more likely to be used in households with young male children. Vaporizer use was associated with higher socio-economic status (SES) in households in Chennai and Nadiad, whereas use of coils was greater in the lower SES strata. In Raurkela, there was a higher use of coils among the higher SES strata. Education was associated with the use of a repellent among survey participants in Chennai and clinic study participants in Chennai and Nadiad. Repellent use was associated with less malaria in the clinic study in Chennai and Raurkela, but not in the surveys, with the exception of the use of coils in Nadiad.

Conclusions

Repellents are widely used in India. Their use is influenced by the level of education and SES. Information on effectiveness and guidance on choices may improve rational use.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1709-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries

BACKGROUND

Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing the burden of disease and the likely impact of interventions.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

We estimated the force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) by fitting catalytic models to age-stratified incidence data identified from the literature. We compared estimates derived from incidence and seroprevalence data and assessed the level of under-reporting of dengue disease. In addition, we estimated the relative contribution of primary to quaternary infections to the observed burden of dengue disease incidence. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from one to five and the force of infection estimates from incidence data were consistent with those previously estimated from seroprevalence data. The baseline reporting rate (or the probability of detecting a secondary infection) was generally low (<25%) and varied within and between countries.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

As expected, estimates varied widely across and within countries, highlighting the spatio-temporally heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. Although seroprevalence data provide the maximum information, the incidence models presented in this paper provide a method for estimating dengue transmission intensity from age-stratified incidence data, which will be an important consideration in areas where seroprevalence data are not available.

Persistent Symptoms of Dengue: Estimates of the Incremental Disease and Economic Burden in Mexico

Dengue is mostly considered an acute illness with three phases: febrile, critical with possible hemorrhagic manifestations, and recovery. But some patients present persistent symptoms, including fatigue and depression, as acknowledged by the World Health Organization. If persistent symptoms affect a non-negligible share of patients, the burden of dengue will be underestimated. On the basis of a systematic literature review and econometric modeling, we found a significant relationship between the share of patients reporting persisting symptoms and time. We updated estimates of the economic burden of dengue in Mexico, addressing uncertainty in productivity loss and incremental expenses using Monte Carlo simulations. Persistent symptoms represent annually about US$22.6 (95% certainty level [CL]: US$13-US$29) million in incremental costs and 28.2 (95% CL: 21.6-36.2) additional disability-adjusted life years per million population, or 13% and 43% increases over previous estimates, respectively. Although our estimates have uncertainty from limited data, they show a substantial, unmeasured burden. Similar patterns likely extend to other dengue-endemic countries.

More than one rabbit out of the hat: Radiation, transgenic and symbiont-based approaches for sustainable management of mosquito and tsetse fly populations

Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) and tsetse flies (Diptera: Glossinidae) are bloodsucking vectors of human and animal pathogens. Mosquito-borne diseases (malaria, filariasis, dengue, zika, and chikungunya) cause severe mortality and morbidity annually, and tsetse fly-borne diseases (African trypanosomes causing sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in livestock) cost Sub-Saharan Africa an estimated US$ 4750 million annually. Current reliance on insecticides for vector control is unsustainable: due to increasing insecticide resistance and growing concerns about health and environmental impacts of chemical control there is a growing need for novel, effective and safe biologically-based methods that are more sustainable. The integration of the sterile insect technique has proven successful to manage crop pests and disease vectors, particularly tsetse flies, and is likely to prove effective against mosquito vectors, particularly once sex-separation methods are improved. Transgenic and symbiont-based approaches are in development, and more advanced in (particularly Aedes) mosquitoes than in tsetse flies; however, issues around stability, sustainability and biosecurity have to be addressed, especially when considering population replacement approaches. Regulatory issues and those relating to intellectual property and economic cost of application must also be overcome. Standardised methods to assess insect quality are required to compare and predict efficacy of the different approaches. Different combinations of these three approaches could be integrated to maximise their benefits, and all have the potential to be used in tsetse and mosquito area-wide integrated pest management programmes.

Reproductive Incompatibility Involving Senegalese Aedes aegypti (L) Is Associated with Chromosome Rearrangements

Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of dengue, yellow fever and Zika flaviviruses, consists of at least two subspecies. Aedes aegypti (Aaa) is light in color, has pale scales on the first abdominal tergite, oviposits in artificial containers, and preferentially feeds on humans. Aedes aegypti formosus (Aaf), has a dark cuticle, is restricted to sub-Saharan Africa, has no pale scales on the first abdominal tergite and frequently oviposits in natural containers. Scale patterns correlate with cuticle color in East Africa but not in Senegal, West Africa where black cuticle mosquitoes display a continuum of scaling patterns and breed domestically indoors. An earlier laboratory study did not indicate any pre- or postzygotic barriers to gene flow between Aaa and Aaf in East Africa. However, similar attempts to construct F₁ intercross families between Aaa laboratory strains and Senegal Ae. aegypti (SenAae) failed due to poor F₁ oviposition and low F₂ egg-to-adult survival. Insemination and assortative mating experiments failed to identify prezygotic mating barriers. Backcrosses were performed to test for postzygotic isolation patterns consistent with Haldane’s rule modified for species, like Aedes, that have an autosomal sex determining locus (SDL). Egg-pupal survival was predicted to be low in females mated to hybrid F₁ males but average when a male mates with a hybrid F₁ female. Survival was in fact significantly reduced when females mated to hybrid males but egg-pupal survival was significantly increased when males were mated to hybrid F₁ females. These observations are therefore inconclusive with regards to Haldane’s rule. Basic cytogenetic analyses and Fluorescent In Situ Hybridization (FISH) experiments were performed to compare SenAae strains with the IB12 strain of Aaa that was used for genome sequencing and physical mapping. Some SenAae strains had longer chromosomes than IB12 and significantly different centromeric indices on chromosomes 1 and 3. DAPI staining was used to identify AT-rich regions, chromomycin A3 following pretreatment with barium hydroxide stained for GC-rich regions and stained the ribosomal RNA locus and YOYO-1 was used to test for differential staining. Chromosome patterns in SenAae strains revealed by these three stains differed from those in IB12. For FISH, 40 BAC clones previously physically mapped on Aaa chromosomes were used to test for chromosome rearrangements in SenAae relative to IB12. Differences in the order of markers identified two chromosomal rearrangements between IB12 and SenAae strains. The first rearrangement involves two overlapping pericentric (containing the centromere) inversions in chromosome 3 or an insertion of a large fragment into the 3q arm. The second rearrangement is close to the centromere on the p arm of chromosome 2. Linkage analysis of the SDL and the white-eye locus identified a likely chromosomal rearrangement on chromosome 1. The reproductive incompatibility observed within SenAae and between SenAae and Aaa may be generally associated with chromosome rearrangements on all three chromosomes and specifically caused by pericentric inversions on chromosomes 2 and 3.

Aedes aegypti is one of the best studied mosquito species and it is the principal vector of dengue, Zika, and yellow fever flaviviruses and the Chikungunya alphavirus. Aedes aegypti occurs throughout all tropical and subtropical regions of the world, and previous population genetic studies have shown that the highest genetic diversity occurs in Africa. Aedes aegypti from Senegal, West Africa (SenAae) have a low oviposition rate; those that do oviposit have a low fecundity and poor egg-to-adult survival. Furthermore rearrangements were detected on all three chromosomes in SenAae. These observations are consistent with the presence of at least two cryptic subspecies of Ae. aegypti in Senegal arising from reproductive isolation due to chromosome rearrangements. Genetic control strategies are being considered for the suppression of Ae. aegypti populations worldwide. Barriers to gene flow in African Ae. aegypti populations could compromise these future control efforts.

The global economic burden of dengue: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a serious global burden. Unreported and unrecognised apparent dengue virus infections make it difficult to estimate the true extent of dengue and current estimates of the incidence and costs of dengue have substantial uncertainty. Objective, systematic, comparable measures of dengue burden are needed to track health progress, assess the application and financing of emerging preventive and control strategies, and inform health policy. We estimated the global economic burden of dengue by country and super-region (groups of epidemiologically similar countries).

METHODS

We used the latest dengue incidence estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 and several other data sources to assess the economic burden of symptomatic dengue cases in the 141 countries and territories with active dengue transmission. From the scientific literature and regressions, we estimated cases and costs by setting, including the non-medical setting, for all countries and territories.

FINDINGS

Our global estimates suggest that in 2013 there were a total of 58·40 million symptomatic dengue virus infections (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 24 million-122 million), including 13 586 fatal cases (95% UI 4200-34 700), and that the total annual global cost of dengue illness was US$8·9 billion (95% UI 3·7 billion-19·7 billion). The global distribution of dengue cases is 18% admitted to hospital, 48% ambulatory, and 34% non-medical.

INTERPRETATION

The global cost of dengue is substantial and, if control strategies could reduce dengue appreciably, billions of dollars could be saved globally. In estimating dengue costs by country and setting, this study contributes to the needs of policy makers, donors, developers, and researchers for economic assessments of dengue interventions, particularly with the licensure of the first dengue vaccine and promising developments in other technologies.

FUNDING

Sanofi Pasteur.

Serum Metabolomics Reveals Serotonin as a Predictor of Severe Dengue in the Early Phase of Dengue Fever

Effective triage of dengue patients early in the disease course for in- or out-patient management would be useful for optimal healthcare resource utilization while minimizing poor clinical outcome due to delayed intervention. Yet, early prognosis of severe dengue is hampered by the heterogeneity in clinical presentation and routine hematological and biochemical measurements in dengue patients that collectively correlates poorly with eventual clinical outcome. Herein, untargeted liquid-chromatography mass spectrometry metabolomics of serum from patients with dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in the febrile phase (<96 h) was used to globally probe the serum metabolome to uncover early prognostic biomarkers of DHF. We identified 20 metabolites that are differentially enriched (p<0.05, fold change >1.5) in the serum, among which are two products of tryptophan metabolism-serotonin and kynurenine. Serotonin, involved in platelet aggregation and activation decreased significantly, whereas kynurenine, an immunomodulator, increased significantly in patients with DHF, consistent with thrombocytopenia and immunopathology in severe dengue. To sensitively and accurately evaluate serotonin levels as prognostic biomarkers, we implemented stable-isotope dilution mass spectrometry and used convalescence samples as their own controls. DHF serotonin was significantly 1.98 fold lower in febrile compared to convalescence phase, and significantly 1.76 fold lower compared to DF in the febrile phase of illness. Thus, serotonin alone provided good prognostic utility (Area Under Curve, AUC of serotonin = 0.8). Additionally, immune mediators associated with DHF may further increase the predictive ability than just serotonin alone. Nine cytokines, including IFN-γ, IL-1β, IL-4, IL-8, G-CSF, MIP-1β, FGF basic, TNFα and RANTES were significantly different between DF and DHF, among which IFN-γ ranked top by multivariate statistics. Combining serotonin and IFN-γ improved the prognosis performance (AUC = 0.92, sensitivity = 77.8%, specificity = 95.8%), suggesting this duplex panel as accurate metrics for the early prognosis of DHF.

Presence of three dengue serotypes in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso): research and public health implications

BACKGROUND

The significant malaria burden in Africa has often eclipsed other febrile illnesses. Burkina Faso's first dengue epidemic occurred in 1925 and the most recent in 2013. Yet there is still very little known about dengue prevalence, its vector proliferation, and its poverty and equity impacts.

METHODS

An exploratory cross-sectional survey was performed from December 2013 to January 2014. Six primary healthcare centers in Ouagadougou were selected based on previously reported presence of Flavivirus. All patients consulting with fever or having had fever within the previous week and with a negative rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for malaria were invited to participate. Sociodemographic data, healthcare use and expenses, mobility, health-related status, and vector control practices were captured using a questionnaire. Blood samples of every eligible subject were obtained through finger pricks during the survey for dengue RDT using SD BIOLINE Dengue Duo (NS1Ag and IgG/IgM)® and to obtain blood spots for reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) analysis. In a sample of randomly selected yards and those of patients, potential Aedes breeding sites were found and described. Larvae were collected and brought to the laboratory to monitor the emergence of adults and identify the species.

RESULTS

Of the 379 subjects, 8.7 % (33/379) had positive RDTs for dengue. Following the 2009 WHO classification, 38.3 % (145/379) had presumptive, probable, or confirmed dengue, based on either clinical symptoms or laboratory testing. Of 60 samples tested by RT-PCR (33 from the positive tests and 27 from the subsample of negatives), 15 were positive. The serotypes observed were DENV2, DENV3, and DENV4. Odds of dengue infection in 15-to-20-year-olds and persons over 50 years were 4.0 (CI 95 %: 1.0-15.6) and 7.7 (CI 95 %: 1.6-37.1) times higher, respectively, than in children under five. Average total spending for a dengue episode was 13 771 FCFA [1 300-67 300 FCFA] (1$US = 478 FCFA). On average, 2.6 breeding sites were found per yard. Potential Aedes breeding sites were found near 71.4 % (21/28) of patients, but no adult Aedes were found. The most frequently identified potential breeding sites were water storage containers (45.2 %). Most specimens collected in yards were Culex (97.9 %).

CONCLUSIONS

The scientific community, public health authorities, and health workers should consider dengue as a possible cause of febrile illness in Burkina Faso.

Symptomatic Dengue in Children in 10 Asian and Latin American Countries

BACKGROUND

The control groups in two phase 3 trials of dengue vaccine efficacy included two large regional cohorts that were followed up for dengue infection. These cohorts provided a sample for epidemiologic analyses of symptomatic dengue in children across 10 countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America in which dengue is endemic.

METHODS

We monitored acute febrile illness and virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) in 3424 healthy children, 2 to 16 years of age, in Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) from June 2011 through December 2013 and in 6939 children, 9 to 18 years of age, in Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and Puerto Rico) from June 2011 through April 2014. Acute febrile episodes were determined to be VCD by means of a nonstructural protein 1 antigen immunoassay and reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assays. Dengue hemorrhagic fever was defined according to 1997 World Health Organization criteria.

RESULTS

Approximately 10% of the febrile episodes in each cohort were confirmed to be VCD, with 319 VCD episodes (4.6 episodes per 100 person-years) occurring in the Asian cohort and 389 VCD episodes (2.9 episodes per 100 person-years) occurring in the Latin American cohort; no trend according to age group was observed. The incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever was less than 0.3 episodes per 100 person-years in each cohort. The percentage of VCD episodes requiring hospitalization was 19.1% in the Asian cohort and 11.1% in the Latin American cohort. In comparable age groups (9 to 12 years and 13 to 16 years), the burden of dengue was higher in Asia than in Latin America.

CONCLUSIONS

The burdens of dengue were substantial in the two regions and in all age groups. Burdens varied widely according to country, but the rates were generally higher and the disease more frequently severe in Asian countries than in Latin American countries. (Funded by Sanofi Pasteur; CYD14 and CYD15 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01373281 and NCT01374516.).

The global burden of dengue: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the most common arbovirus infection globally, but its burden is poorly quantified. We estimated dengue mortality, incidence, and burden for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

METHODS

We modelled mortality from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling tool. We modelled incidence from officially reported cases, and adjusted our raw estimates for under-reporting based on published estimates of expansion factors. In total, we had 1780 country-years of mortality data from 130 countries, 1636 country-years of dengue case reports from 76 countries, and expansion factor estimates for 14 countries.

FINDINGS

We estimated an average of 9221 dengue deaths per year between 1990 and 2013, increasing from a low of 8277 (95% uncertainty estimate 5353-10 649) in 1992, to a peak of 11 302 (6790-13 722) in 2010. This yielded a total of 576 900 (330 000-701 200) years of life lost to premature mortality attributable to dengue in 2013. The incidence of dengue increased greatly between 1990 and 2013, with the number of cases more than doubling every decade, from 8·3 million (3·3 million-17·2 million) apparent cases in 1990, to 58·4 million (23·6 million-121·9 million) apparent cases in 2013. When accounting for disability from moderate and severe acute dengue, and post-dengue chronic fatigue, 566 000 (186 000-1 415 000) years lived with disability were attributable to dengue in 2013. Considering fatal and non-fatal outcomes together, dengue was responsible for 1·14 million (0·73 million-1·98 million) disability-adjusted life-years in 2013.

INTERPRETATION

Although lower than other estimates, our results offer more evidence that the true symptomatic incidence of dengue probably falls within the commonly cited range of 50 million to 100 million cases per year. Our mortality estimates are lower than those presented elsewhere and should be considered in light of the totality of evidence suggesting that dengue mortality might, in fact, be substantially higher.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Dengue NS1 antigen contributes to disease severity by inducing interleukin (IL)-10 by monocytes

Both dengue NS1 antigen and serum interleukin (IL)-10 levels have been shown to associate with severe clinical disease in acute dengue infection, and IL-10 has also been shown to suppress dengue-specific T cell responses. Therefore, we proceeded to investigate the mechanisms by which dengue NS1 contributes to disease pathogenesis and if it is associated with altered IL-10 production. Serum IL-10 and dengue NS1 antigen levels were assessed serially in 36 adult Sri Lankan individuals with acute dengue infection. We found that the serum IL-10 levels correlated positively with dengue NS1 antigen levels (Spearman's r = 0·47, P < 0·0001), and NS1 also correlated with annexin V expression by T cells in acute dengue (Spearman's r = 0·63, P = 0·001). However, NS1 levels did not associate with the functionality of T cell responses or with expression of co-stimulatory molecules. Therefore, we further assessed the effect of dengue NS1 on monocytes and T cells by co-culturing primary monocytes and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), with varying concentrations of NS1 for up to 96 h. Monocytes co-cultured with NS1 produced high levels of IL-10, with the highest levels seen at 24 h, and then declined gradually. Therefore, our data show that dengue NS1 appears to contribute to pathogenesis of dengue infection by inducing IL-10 production by monocytes.

Characterization of the health condition of people convalescing from a dengue episode

INTRODUCTION

Although dengue and its acute manifestations have been broadly described in the literature, the symptoms during the convalescence phase have so far been little studied. 

OBJECTIVE

To describe the clinical manifestations of a population during the convalescence phase from a dengue episode. 

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted an observational study in individuals that were in the hospital after being serologically diagnosed with dengue. After being discharged from the hospital, they were visited in order to verify the persistence of clinical symptoms, fatigue (assessed using the Chalder's Fatigue Questionnaire) and quality of life (assessed with the EuroQoL-5D questionnaire). Significant fatigue was defined with a score equal to or greater than four in the corresponding scale. Participants with positive [+] fatigue signs were supervised by phone and/or by visiting them in their places of residence until the symptoms disappeared, with a maximum follow-up term of three months. 

RESULTS

We included 32 individuals in the study (average age: 35 years old, 59% women) and a fatigue prevalence of 34.4% was observed (CI 95% 17.0-51.8). Sociodemographic differences were not defined as determinants with regard to fatigue; by contrast, we found a greater frequency of physical tiredness (100% vs 47.6%; p-0.005) and mental tiredness (54.6% vs 9.5%; p=0.010). Even though patients with fatigue had a poor quality of life, this sign was not statistically different from the group not reporting fatigue when we adjusted by age and sex (OR=5.5; CI 95% 0.83-36.5). In addition, fatigue scores dropped half point in average every 10 days of follow-up. 

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrated that the burden of disease in dengue has not been entirely described, as clinical signs are still present during the convalescence phase, and this represents an obstacle for the normal recovery of individuals.

Estimation of parameters related to vaccine efficacy and dengue transmission from two large phase III studies

BACKGROUND

A tetravalent dengue vaccine was shown to be efficacious against symptomatic dengue in two phase III efficacy studies performed in five Asian and five Latin American countries. The objective here was to estimate key parameters of a dengue transmission model using the data collected during these studies.

METHODS

Parameter estimation was based on a Sequential Monte Carlo approach and used a cohort version of the transmission model. Serotype-specific basic reproduction numbers were derived for each country. Parameters related to serotype interactions included duration of cross-protection and level of cross-enhancement characterized by differences in symptomaticity for primary, secondary and post-secondary infections. We tested several vaccine efficacy profiles and simulated the evolution of vaccine efficacy over time for the scenarios providing the best fit to the data.

RESULTS

Two reference scenarios were identified. The first included temporary cross-protection and the second combined cross-protection and cross-enhancement upon wild-type infection and following vaccination. Both scenarios were associated with differences in efficacy by serotype, higher efficacy for pre-exposed subjects and against severe dengue, increase in efficacy with doses for naïve subjects and by a more important waning of vaccine protection for subjects when naïve than when pre-exposed. Over 20 years, the median reduction of dengue risk induced by the direct protection conferred by the vaccine ranged from 24% to 47% according to country for the first scenario and from 34% to 54% for the second.

CONCLUSION

Our study is an important first step in deriving a general framework that combines disease dynamics and mechanisms of vaccine protection that could be used to assess the impact of vaccination at a population level.

Defining Hsp70 Subnetworks in Dengue Virus Replication Reveals Key Vulnerability in Flavivirus Infection

Viral protein homeostasis depends entirely on the machinery of the infected cell. Accordingly, viruses can illuminate the interplay between cellular proteostasis components and their distinct substrates. Here, we define how the Hsp70 chaperone network mediates the dengue virus life cycle. Cytosolic Hsp70 isoforms are required at distinct steps of the viral cycle, including entry, RNA replication, and virion biogenesis. Hsp70 function at each step is specified by nine distinct DNAJ cofactors. Of these, DnaJB11 relocalizes to virus-induced replication complexes to promote RNA synthesis, while DnaJB6 associates with capsid protein and facilitates virion biogenesis. Importantly, an allosteric Hsp70 inhibitor, JG40, potently blocks infection of different dengue serotypes in human primary blood cells without eliciting viral resistance or exerting toxicity to the host cells. JG40 also blocks replication of other medically-important flaviviruses including yellow fever, West Nile and Japanese encephalitis viruses. Thus, targeting host Hsp70 subnetworks provides a path for broad-spectrum antivirals.

Economic Impact of Dengue: Multicenter Study across Four Brazilian Regions

BACKGROUND

Dengue is an increasing public health concern in Brazil. There is a need for an updated evaluation of the economic impact of dengue within the country. We undertook this multicenter study to evaluate the economic burden of dengue in Brazil.

METHODS

We estimated the economic burden of dengue in Brazil for the years 2009 to 2013 and for the epidemic season of August 2012- September 2013. We conducted a multicenter cohort study across four endemic regions: Midwest, Goiania; Southeast, Belo Horizonte and Rio de Janeiro; Northeast: Teresina and Recife; and the North, Belem. Ambulatory or hospitalized cases with suspected or laboratory-confirmed dengue treated in both the private and public sectors were recruited. Interviews were scheduled for the convalescent period to ascertain characteristics of the dengue episode, date of first symptoms/signs and recovery, use of medical services, work/school absence, household spending (out-of-pocket expense) and income lost using a questionnaire developed for a previous cost study. We also extracted data from the patients' medical records for hospitalized cases. Overall costs per case and cumulative costs were calculated from the public payer and societal perspectives. National cost estimations took into account cases reported in the official notification system (SINAN) with adjustment for underreporting of cases. We applied a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with 90% certainty levels (CL).

RESULTS

We screened 2,223 cases, of which 2,035 (91.5%) symptomatic dengue cases were included in our study. The estimated cost for dengue for the epidemic season (2012-2013) in the societal perspective was US$ 468 million (90% CL: 349-590) or US$ 1,212 million (90% CL: 904-1,526) after adjusting for under-reporting. Considering the time series of dengue (2009-2013) the estimated cost of dengue varied from US$ 371 million (2009) to US$ 1,228 million (2013).

CONCLUSIONS

The economic burden associated with dengue in Brazil is substantial with large variations in reported cases and consequently costs reflecting the dynamic of dengue transmission.

Host biomarkers are associated with progression to dengue haemorrhagic fever: a nested case-control study

OBJECTIVES

Dengue represents the most important arboviral infection worldwide. Onset of circulatory collapse can be unpredictable. Biomarkers that can identify individuals at risk of plasma leakage may facilitate better triage and clinical management.

DESIGN

Using a nested case-control design, we randomly selected subjects from a prospective cohort study of dengue in Colombia (n=1582). Using serum collected within 96 hours of fever onset, we tested 19 biomarkers by ELISA in cases (developed dengue hemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS); n=46), and controls (uncomplicated dengue fever (DF); n=65) and healthy controls (HC); n=15.

RESULTS

Ang-1 levels were lower and angptl3, sKDR, sEng, sICAM-1, CRP, CXCL10/IP-10, IL-18 binding protein, CHI3L1, C5a and Factor D levels were increased in dengue compared to HC. sICAM-1, sEng and CXCL10/IP-10 were further elevated in subjects who subsequently developed DHF/DSS (p=0.008, p=0.028 and p=0.025, respectively). In a logistic regression model, age (odds ratio (OR) (95% CI): 0.95 (0.92-0.98), p=0.001), hyperesthesia/hyperalgesia (OR; 3.8 (1.4-10.4), p=0.008) and elevated sICAM-1 (>298ng/mL: OR; 6.3 (1.5-25.7), p=0.011) at presentation were independently associated with progression to DHF/DSS.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that inflammation and endothelial activation are important pathways in the pathogenesis of dengue and sICAM-1 levels may identify individuals at risk of plasma leakage.

Back to the future: the sterile insect technique against mosquito disease vectors

With the global burden of mosquito-borne diseases increasing, and some conventional vector control tools losing effectiveness, the sterile insect technique (SIT) is a potential new tool in the arsenal. Equipment and protocols have been developed and validated for efficient mass-rearing, irradiation and release of Aedines and Anophelines that could be useful for several control approaches. Assessment of male quality is becoming more sophisticated, and several groups are well advanced in pilot site selection and population surveillance. It will not be long before SIT feasibility has been evaluated in various settings. Until perfect sexing mechanisms exist, combination of Wolbachia-induced phenotypes, such as cytoplasmic incompatibility and pathogen interference, and irradiation may prove to be the safest solution for population suppression.

Estimating dengue transmission intensity from sero-prevalence surveys in multiple countries

BACKGROUND

Estimates of dengue transmission intensity remain ambiguous. Since the majority of infections are asymptomatic, surveillance systems substantially underestimate true rates of infection. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing both the burden of disease from dengue and the likely impact of interventions.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) for dengue were estimated from non-serotype (IgG) and serotype-specific (PRNT) age-stratified seroprevalence surveys identified from the literature. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from 1-4. Assuming that two heterologous infections result in complete immunity produced up to two-fold higher estimates of R0 than when tertiary and quaternary infections were included. λ estimated from IgG data were comparable to the sum of serotype-specific forces of infection derived from PRNT data, particularly when inter-serotype interactions were allowed for.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our analysis highlights the highly heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. How underlying assumptions about serotype interactions and immunity affect the relationship between the force of infection and R0 will have implications for control planning. While PRNT data provides the maximum information, our study shows that even the much cheaper ELISA-based assays would provide comparable baseline estimates of overall transmission intensity which will be an important consideration in resource-constrained settings.

Dengue epidemiology in selected endemic countries: factors influencing expansion factors as estimates of underreporting

OBJECTIVE

Dengue fever is globally considered underestimated. This study provides expansion factors (EFs) for dengue endemic selected countries and highlights critical issues in the use of EFs.

METHODS

We identified dengue epidemiological cohort studies from 2000 to July 2013 through a literature search using PubMed, Web of Science and Lilacs (Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Database), pre-defined keywords and inclusion/exclusion criteria, and included Brazil, Colombia, Nicaragua, Peru, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. Dengue national and local passive surveillance data were derived from WHO regional websites, PAHO, SEARO and WPRO. EFs were calculated as CI cohort studies/CI passive data for both national and local levels.

RESULTS

Cohort studies differed in case definition, laboratory test used and surveillance methods. The information on SEARO, PAHO and WPRO websites differed in terms of dengue epidemiological variables, population denominators and completeness. The highest incidence was reported by PAHO countries followed by WPRO and SEARO countries. EFs may vary for the different variables and denominators used for calculation. EFs were the highest in SEARO countries and lowest in PAHO countries. A trend for lower local EFs was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of EFs for quantifying dengue underreporting may be problematic due to lack of uniformity in reporting dengue both active and passive surveillance data. Quality dengue surveillance data are urgently needed for a better estimate of dengue disease burden and to measure the impact of preventive intervention.

Economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico

BACKGROUND

Dengue imposes a substantial economic and disease burden in most tropical and subtropical countries. Dengue incidence and severity have dramatically increased in Mexico during the past decades. Having objective and comparable estimates of the economic burden of dengue is essential to inform health policy, increase disease awareness, and assess the impact of dengue prevention and control technologies.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We estimated the annual economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico for the years 2010-2011. We merged multiple data sources, including a prospective cohort study; patient interviews and macro-costing from major hospitals; surveillance, budget, and health data from the Ministry of Health; WHO cost estimates; and available literature. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to derive 95% certainty levels (CL) for our estimates. Results suggest that Mexico had about 139,000 (95%CL: 128,000-253,000) symptomatic and 119 (95%CL: 75-171) fatal dengue episodes annually on average (2010-2011), compared to an average of 30,941 symptomatic and 59 fatal dengue episodes reported. The annual cost, including surveillance and vector control, was US$170 (95%CL: 151-292) million, or $1.56 (95%CL: 1.38-2.68) per capita, comparable to other countries in the region. Of this, $87 (95%CL: 87-209) million or $0.80 per capita (95%CL: 0.62-1.12) corresponds to illness. Annual disease burden averaged 65 (95%CL: 36-99) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million population. Inclusion of long-term sequelae, co-morbidities, impact on tourism, and health system disruption during outbreaks would further increase estimated economic and disease burden.

CONCLUSION

With this study, Mexico joins Panama, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and Thailand as the only countries or areas worldwide with comprehensive (illness and preventive) empirical estimates of dengue burden. Burden varies annually; during an outbreak, dengue burden may be significantly higher than that of the pre-vaccine level of rotavirus diarrhea. In sum, Mexico's potential economic benefits from dengue control would be substantial.

The burden of dengue and chikungunya worldwide: implications for the southern United States and California

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus (DENV) spreads to humans through the bite of an infected Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus mosquito and is a growing public health threat to both industrialized and developing nations worldwide. Outbreaks of autochthonous dengue in the United States occurred extensively in the past but over the past 3 decades have again taken place in Florida, Hawaii, and Texas as well as in American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. As the Aedes vectors spread worldwide it is anticipated that DENV as well as other viruses also transmitted by these vectors, such as Chikungunya virus (CHKV), will invade new areas of the world, including the United States.

OBJECTIVES

In this review, we describe the current burden of dengue disease worldwide and the potential introduction of DENV and CHKV into different areas of the United States. Of these areas, the state of California saw the arrival and spread of the Aedes aegypti vector beginning in 2013. This invasion presents a developing situation when considering the state's number of imported dengue cases and proximity to northern Mexico as well as the rising specter of chikungunya in the Western hemisphere.

FINDINGS

In light of the recent arrival of Aedes aegypti mosquito vectors to California, there is now a small but appreciable risk for endemic transmission of dengue and chikungunya within the State. It is likely, however, that if DENV or CHKV were to become endemic that the public health situation would be similar to that currently found along the Texas-Mexico border. The distribution of Aedes vectors in California as well as a discussion of several factors contributing to the risk for dengue importation are discussed and evaluated.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue and chikungunya viruses present real risks to states where the Aedes vector is now established. Scientists, physicians, and public health authorities should familiarize themselves with these risks and prepare appropriately.