Response to a rabies epidemic, Bali, Indonesia, 2008-2011

The Role of Dog Population Management in Rabies Elimination-A Review of Current Approaches and Future Opportunities

Free-roaming dogs and rabies transmission are integrally linked across many low-income countries, and large unmanaged dog populations can be daunting to rabies control program planners. Dog population management (DPM) is a multifaceted concept that aims to improve the health and well-being of free-roaming dogs, reduce problems they may cause, and may also aim to reduce dog population size. In theory, DPM can facilitate more effective rabies control. Community engagement focused on promoting responsible dog ownership and better veterinary care could improve the health of individual animals and dog vaccination coverage, thus reducing rabies transmission. Humane DPM tools, such as sterilization, could theoretically reduce dog population turnover and size, allowing rabies vaccination coverage to be maintained more easily. However, it is important to understand local dog populations and community attitudes toward them in order to determine whether and how DPM might contribute to rabies control and which DPM tools would be most successful. In practice, there is very limited evidence of DPM tools achieving reductions in the size or turnover of dog populations in canine rabies-endemic areas. Different DPM tools are frequently used together and combined with rabies vaccinations, but full impact assessments of DPM programs are not usually available, and therefore, evaluation of tools is difficult. Surgical sterilization is the most frequently documented tool and has successfully reduced dog population size and turnover in a few low-income settings. However, DPM programs are mostly conducted in urban settings and are usually not government funded, raising concerns about their applicability in rural settings and sustainability over time. Technical demands, costs, and the time necessary to achieve population-level impacts are major barriers. Given their potential value, we urgently need more evidence of the effectiveness of DPM tools in the context of canine rabies control. Cheaper, less labor-intensive tools for dog sterilization will be extremely valuable in realizing the potential benefits of reduced population turnover and size. No one DPM tool will fit all situations, but if DPM objectives are achieved dog populations may be stabilized or even reduced, facilitating higher dog vaccination coverages that will benefit rabies elimination efforts.

Risk assessment of the entry of canine-rabies into Papua New Guinea via sea and land routes

Canine-rabies is endemic in parts of Indonesia and continues to spread eastwards through the Indonesian archipelago. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a land border with Papua Province, Indonesia, as well as logging and fishing industry connections throughout Asia. PNG has a Human Development Index of 0.505; therefore, an incursion of canine-rabies could have devastating impacts on human (7.5 million) and animal populations. Given the known difficulties of rabies elimination in resource-scarce environments, an incursion of rabies into PNG would also likely compromise the campaign for global elimination of rabies. A previous qualitative study to determine routes for detailed risk assessment identified logging, fishing and three land-routes (unregulated crossers ["shopper-crossers"], traditional border crossers and illegal hunters) as potential high risk routes for entry of rabies-infected dogs into PNG. The objective of the current study was to quantify and compare the probability of entry of a rabies-infected dog via these routes into PNG and to identify the highest risk provinces and border districts to target rabies prevention and control activities. Online questionnaires were used to elicit expert-opinion about quantitative model parameter values. A quantitative, stochastic model was then used to assess risk, and parameters with the greatest influence on the estimated mean number of rabies-infected dogs introduced/year were identified via global sensitivity analysis (Sobol method). Eight questionnaires - including 7 online - were implemented and >220 empirical distributions were parameterised using >2900 expert-opinions. The highest risk provinces for combined sea routes were West Sepik, Madang and Western Province, driven by the number of vessels and the probability of bringing dogs. The highest risk border districts for combined land routes were Vanimo-Green River and South Fly, driven by the number of people crossing the border and the number of dogs (with hunters). Overall, the risk posed by land routes was much higher than the risk of rabies introduction by sea routes. This study provides a foundation to develop targeted border control measures, surveillance and response strategies for canine-rabies for the highest risk routes and regions in PNG. Sensitivity analysis using the Sobol method played a key role in this study and directed further data collection to refine risk estimates. The ease of expert-elicitation using online methods demonstrates the feasibility of using such methods for animal and human disease surveillance in PNG.

Scoping review of indicators and methods of measurement used to evaluate the impact of dog population management interventions

BACKGROUND

Dogs are ubiquitous in human society and attempts to manage their populations are common to most countries. Managing dog populations is achieved through a range of interventions to suit the dog population dynamics and dog ownership characteristics of the location, with a number of potential impacts or goals in mind. Impact assessment provides the opportunity for interventions to identify areas of inefficiencies for improvement and build evidence of positive change.

METHODS

This scoping review collates 26 studies that have assessed the impacts of dog population management interventions.

RESULTS

It reports the use of 29 indicators of change under 8 categories of impact and describes variation in the methods used to measure these indicators.

CONCLUSION

The relatively few published examples of impact assessment in dog population management suggest this field is in its infancy; however this review highlights those notable exceptions. By describing those indicators and methods of measurement that have been reported thus far, and apparent barriers to efficient assessment, this review aims to support and direct future impact assessment.

Cost Description and Comparative Cost Efficiency of Post-Exposure Prophylaxis and Canine Mass Vaccination against Rabies in N'Djamena, Chad

Rabies claims approximately 59,000 human lives annually and is a potential risk to 3.3 billion people in over 100 countries worldwide. Despite being fatal in almost 100% of cases, human rabies can be prevented by vaccinating dogs, the most common vector, and the timely administration of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) to exposed victims. For the control and prevention of human rabies in N'Djamena, the capital city of Chad, a free mass vaccination campaign for dogs was organized in 2012 and 2013. The campaigns were monitored by parallel studies on the incidence of canine rabies based on diagnostic testing of suspect animals and the incidence of human bite exposure recorded at selected health facilities. Based on the cost description of the campaign and the need for PEP registered in health centers, three cost scenarios were compared: cumulative cost-efficiency of (1) PEP alone, (2) dog mass vaccination and PEP, (3) dog mass vaccination, PEP, and maximal communication between human health and veterinary workers (One Health communication). Assuming ideal One Health communication, the cumulative prospective cost of dog vaccination and PEP break even with the cumulative prospective cost of PEP alone in the 10th year from the start of the calculation (2012). The cost efficiency expressed in cost per human exposure averted is much higher with canine vaccination and One Health communication than with PEP alone. As shown in other studies, our cost-effectiveness analysis highlights that canine vaccination is financially the best option for animal rabies control and rabies prevention in humans. This study also provides evidence of the beneficial effect of One Health communication. Only with close communication between the human and animal health sectors will the decrease in animal rabies incidence be translated into a decline for PEP. An efficiently applied One Health concept would largely reduce the cost of PEP in resource poor countries and should be implemented for zoonosis control in general.

Comparing Methods of Assessing Dog Rabies Vaccination Coverage in Rural and Urban Communities in Tanzania

Rabies can be eliminated by achieving comprehensive coverage of 70% of domestic dogs during annual mass vaccination campaigns. Estimates of vaccination coverage are, therefore, required to evaluate and manage mass dog vaccination programs; however, there is no specific guidance for the most accurate and efficient methods for estimating coverage in different settings. Here, we compare post-vaccination transects, school-based surveys, and household surveys across 28 districts in southeast Tanzania and Pemba island covering rural, urban, coastal and inland settings, and a range of different livelihoods and religious backgrounds. These approaches were explored in detail in a single district in northwest Tanzania (Serengeti), where their performance was compared with a complete dog population census that also recorded dog vaccination status. Post-vaccination transects involved counting marked (vaccinated) and unmarked (unvaccinated) dogs immediately after campaigns in 2,155 villages (24,721 dogs counted). School-based surveys were administered to 8,587 primary school pupils each representing a unique household, in 119 randomly selected schools approximately 2 months after campaigns. Household surveys were conducted in 160 randomly selected villages (4,488 households) in July/August 2011. Costs to implement these coverage assessments were $12.01, $66.12, and $155.70 per village for post-vaccination transects, school-based, and household surveys, respectively. Simulations were performed to assess the effect of sampling on the precision of coverage estimation. The sampling effort required to obtain reasonably precise estimates of coverage from household surveys is generally very high and probably prohibitively expensive for routine monitoring across large areas, particularly in communities with high human to dog ratios. School-based surveys partially overcame sampling constraints, however, were also costly to obtain reasonably precise estimates of coverage. Post-vaccination transects provided precise and timely estimates of community-level coverage that could be used to troubleshoot the performance of campaigns across large areas. However, transects typically overestimated coverage by around 10%, which therefore needs consideration when evaluating the impacts of campaigns. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of these different methods and make recommendations for how vaccination campaigns can be better monitored and managed at different stages of rabies control and elimination programs.

Rabies Control: Could Innovative Financing Break the Deadlock?

The neglected zoonotic diseases (NZDs) have been all but eradicated in wealthier countries but remain major causes of ill-health and mortality in over 80 countries across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The nature of neglect for the NZDs has been ascribed, in part, to underreporting resulting in an underestimation of their global burden that, together with a lack of advocacy, downgrades their relevance to policy-makers and funding agencies. While this may be the case for many NZDs, for rabies this is not the case. The global burden estimates for rabies (931,600 DALYs) more than justify prioritizing rabies control building on the strong advocacy platforms, functioning at local, regional, and global levels (including the Global Alliance for Rabies Control), and commitments from WHO, OIE, and FAO. Simple effective tools for rabies control exist together with blueprints for operationalizing control, yet, despite elimination targets being set, no global affirmative action has been taken. Rabies control demands activities both in the short term and over a long period of time to achieve the desired cumulative gains. Despite the availability of effective vaccines and messaging tools, rabies will not be sustainably controlled in the near future without long-term financial commitment, particularly as disease incidence decreases and other health priorities take hold. While rabies control is usually perceived as a public good, public private partnerships could prove equally effective in addressing endemic rabies through harnessing social investment and demonstrating the cost-effectiveness of control. It is acknowledged that greater attention to navigating local realities in planning and implementation is essential to ensuring that rabies, and other neglected diseases, are controlled sustainably. In the shadows of resource and institutional limitations in the veterinary sector in low- and middle-income countries, sufficient funding is required so that top-down interventions for rabies can more explicitly engage with local project organization capacity and affected communities in the long term. Development Impact Bonds have the potential to secure the financing required to deliver effective rabies control.

Rationale and support for a One Health program for canine vaccination as the most cost-effective means of controlling zoonotic rabies in endemic settings

Although dog vaccination has been demonstrated to reduce and eliminate rabies in humans, during meetings there are often calls for further pilot studies. The assembled data proves that a widespread approach is now required. While zoonotic rabies has a minimal presence in developed nations, it is endemic throughout most of Asia and Africa, where it is considered to be a neglected tropical disease. In these areas, rabies causes an estimated annual mortality of at least 55,000 human deaths. Worldwide rabid dogs are the source of the vast majority of human rabies exposures. The World Health Organization (WHO), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) advocate a collaborative One Health approach involving human public health and veterinary agencies, with mass canine vaccination programs in endemic areas being the mainstay of strategies to eliminate dog-mediated human rabies. While post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is effective in preventing deaths in people exposed to rabies, it is comparatively expensive and has little impact on the canine reservoir that is the primary source of zoonotic rabies. Indiscriminate culling of the dog population is expensive and there is little evidence that it is effective in controlling rabies in non-island locations. Mass canine vaccination programs using a One Health framework that achieves a minimum 70% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns have proven to be cost-effective in controlling zoonotic rabies in endemic, resource-poor regions. Case studies, such as in Tanzania and Bhutan, illustrate how an approach based on mass canine rabies vaccination has effectively reduced both canine and human rabies to minimal levels. The multiple benefits of mass canine rabies vaccination in these cases included eliminating rabies in the domestic dog reservoirs, eliminating human rabies cases, and decreasing the rabies economic burden by reducing expenditures on PEP.

Determinants of Vaccination Coverage and Consequences for Rabies Control in Bali, Indonesia

Maintaining high vaccination coverage is key to successful rabies control, but mass dog vaccination can be challenging and population turnover erodes coverage. Declines in rabies incidence following successive island-wide vaccination campaigns in Bali suggest that prospects for controlling and ultimately eliminating rabies are good. Rabies, however, has continued to circulate at low levels. In the push to eliminate rabies from Bali, high coverage needs to be maintained across all areas of the island. We carried out door-to-door (DTD) questionnaire surveys (n = 10,352 dog-owning households) and photographic mark–recapture surveys (536 line transects, 2,597 observations of free-roaming dogs) in 2011–2012 to estimate dog population sizes and assess rabies vaccination coverage and dog demographic characteristics in Bali, Indonesia. The median number of dogs per subvillage unit (banjar) was 43 (range 0–307) for owned dogs estimated from the DTD survey and 17 (range 0–83) for unconfined dogs (including both owned and unowned) from transects. Vaccination coverage of owned dogs was significantly higher in adults (91.4%) compared to juveniles (<1 year, 43.9%), likely due to insufficient targeting of pups and from puppies born subsequent to vaccination campaigns. Juveniles had a 10–70 times greater risk of not being vaccinated in urban, suburban, and rural areas [combined odds ratios (ORs): 9.9–71.1, 95% CI: 8.6–96.0]. Free-roaming owned dogs were also 2–3 times more likely to be not vaccinated compared to those confined (combined Ors: 1.9–3.6, 95% CI: 1.4–5.4), with more dogs being confined in urban (71.2%) than in suburban (16.1%) and rural areas (8.0%). Vaccination coverage estimates from transects were also much lower (30.9%) than household surveys (83.6%), possibly due to loss of collars used to identify the vaccination status of free-roaming dogs, but these unconfined dogs may also include dogs that were unowned or more difficult to vaccinate. Overall, coverage levels were high in the owned dog population, but for future campaigns in Bali to have the highest chance of eliminating rabies, concerted effort should be made to vaccinate free-roaming dogs particularly in suburban and rural areas, with advertising to ensure that owners vaccinate pups. Long-lasting, cheap, and quick methods are needed to mark vaccinated animals and reassure communities of the reach of vaccination campaigns.

Predicted Spatial Spread of Canine Rabies in Australia

Modelling disease dynamics is most useful when data are limited. We present a spatial transmission model for the spread of canine rabies in the currently rabies-free wild dog population of Australia. The introduction of a sub-clinically infected dog from Indonesia is a distinct possibility, as is the spillover infection of wild dogs. Ranges for parameters were estimated from the literature and expert opinion, or set to span an order of magnitude. Rabies was judged to have spread spatially if a new infectious case appeared 120 km from the index case. We found 21% of initial value settings resulted in canine rabies spreading 120km, and on doing so at a median speed of 67 km/year. Parameters governing dog movements and behaviour, around which there is a paucity of knowledge, explained most of the variance in model outcomes. Dog density, especially when interactions with other parameters were included, explained some of the variance in whether rabies spread 120km, but dog demography (mean lifespan and mean replacement period) had minimal impact. These results provide a clear research direction if Australia is to improve its preparedness for rabies.

Cost-Effectiveness of Mass Dog Vaccination Campaigns against Rabies in Flores Island, Indonesia

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to determine the cost-effectiveness of different mass dog vaccination strategies against rabies in a dog population representative of a typical village on Flores Island. Cost-effectiveness was measured as public cost per averted dog-rabies case. Simulations started with the introduction of one infectious dog into a susceptible dog population of 399 dogs and subsequently ran for a period of 10 years. The base scenario represented a situation without any control intervention. Evaluated vaccination strategies were as follows: annual vaccination campaigns with short-acting vaccine (immunity duration of 52 weeks) (AV_52), annual campaigns with long-acting vaccine (immunity duration of 156 weeks) (AV_156), biannual campaigns with short-acting vaccine (BV_52) and once-in-2-years campaigns with long-acting vaccine (O2V_156). The effectiveness of the vaccination strategies was simulated for vaccination coverages of 50% and 70%. Cumulative results were reported for the 10-year simulation period. The base scenario resulted in three epidemic waves, with a total of 1274 dog-rabies cases. The public cost of applying AV_52 at a coverage of 50% was US$5342 for a village. This strategy was unfavourable compared to other strategies, as it was costly and ineffective in controlling the epidemic. The costs of AV_52 at a coverage of 70% and AV_156 at a coverage of 70% were, respectively, US$3646 and US$3716, equivalent to US$3.00 and US$3.17 per averted dog-rabies case. Increasing the coverage of AV_156 from 50% to 70% reduced the number of cases by 7% and reduced the cost by US$1452, resulting in a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1.81 per averted dog-rabies case. This simulation model provides an effective tool to explore the public cost-effectiveness of mass dog vaccination strategies in Flores Island. Insights obtained from the simulation results are useful for animal health authorities to support decision-making in rabies-endemic areas, such as Flores Island.

Urban dogs in rural areas: Human-mediated movement defines dog populations in southern Chile

Management strategies for dog populations and their diseases include reproductive control, euthanasia and vaccination, among others. However, the effectiveness of these strategies can be severely affected by human-mediated dog movement. If immigration is important, then the location of origin of dogs imported by humans will be fundamental to define the spatial scales over which population management and research should apply. In this context, the main objective of our study was to determine the spatial extent of dog demographic processes in rural areas and the proportion of dogs that could be labeled as immigrants at multiple spatial scales. To address our objective we conducted surveys in households located in a rural landscape in southern Chile. Interviews allowed us to obtain information on the demographic characteristics of dogs in these rural settings, human influence on dog mortality and births, the localities of origin of dogs living in rural areas, and the spatial extent of human-mediated dog movement. We found that most rural dogs (64.1%) were either urban dogs that had been brought to rural areas (40.0%), or adopted dogs that had been previously abandoned in rural roads (24.1%). Some dogs were brought from areas located as far as ∼700km away from the study area. Human-mediated movement of dogs, especially from urban areas, seems to play a fundamental role in the population dynamics of dogs in rural areas. Consequently, local scale efforts to manage dog populations or their diseases are unlikely to succeed if implemented in isolation, simply because dogs can be brought from surrounding urban areas or even distant locations. We suggest that efforts to manage or study dog populations and related diseases should be implemented using a multi-scale approach.

Phylogeography of the current rabies viruses in Indonesia

Rabies is a major fatal zoonotic disease in Indonesia. This study was conducted to determine the recent dynamics of rabies virus (RABV) in various areas and animal species throughout Indonesia. A total of 27 brain samples collected from rabid animals of various species in Bali, Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Java, and Flores in 2008 to 2010 were investigated. The cDNA of the nucleoprotein gene from each sample was generated and amplified by one-step reverse transcription-PCR, after which the products were sequenced and analyzed. The symmetric substitution model of a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection extension of the discrete phylogeographic model of the social network was applied in BEAST ver. 1.7.5 software. The spatial dispersal was visualized in Cartographica using Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics. We demonstrated inter-island introduction and reintroduction, and dog was found to be the only source of infection of other animals. Ancestors of Indonesian RABVs originated in Java and its descendants were transmitted to Kalimantan, then further to Sumatra, Flores, and Bali. The Flores descendent was subsequently transmitted to Sulawesi and back to Kalimantan. The viruses found in various animal species were transmitted by the dog.

Health Seeking Behaviours and Knowledge of Infectious Disease Risks in Western Australian Travellers to Southeast Asian Destinations: An Airport Survey

As the number of Australians engaging in short-term international travel increases, so does the opportunity for importing overseas-acquired infectious diseases. This study aimed to determine knowledge of infectious disease risks and pre-travel health advice (PTHA) seeking behaviour among Western Australians travelling to Bali, Indonesia or Thailand. Passengers departing from Perth International Airport were invited to participate in a self-administered survey. The survey determined PTHA seeking behaviour, knowledge of specific disease risks, and expected disease-prevention behaviours abroad. Multivariate regression modelling was used to assess demographic and travel-related factors associated with seeking PTHA. Responses from 1334 travellers were analysed. The proportion correctly identifying specific overseas disease risks ranged from 27% to 98%. High levels of planned disease-preventive behaviours were reported; however only 32% of respondents sought PTHA for their trip, most commonly from friends/family (15%) or a GP (14%). Many travellers (87%) made online travel purchases, but few (8%) used the Internet to source PTHA. WA travellers to Bali and Thailand were unlikely to seek PTHA and knowledge varied regarding infectious disease risks associated with travel. High rates of internet use when planning travel may provide an opportunity for destination-specific health promotion messaging and should be explored.

Expert Opinion to Identify High-Risk Entry Routes of Canine Rabies into Papua New Guinea

The proximity of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to canine rabies-endemic countries in South-East Asia presents a risk of incursion of this disease into PNG and the rest of the Oceanic region. The objective of this study was to identify the highest risk routes for entry of dogs - associated with movement of people - into PNG from canine rabies-endemic countries. A structured, in-country expert-elicitation workshop was used, and 20 entry routes were identified. The highest risk routes were three land routes from Papua, Indonesia (hunters, traditional border crossers and unregulated, unchecked 'shopper-crossers') and two sea routes (fishing and logging). These results will be used to direct more detailed risk assessments to develop surveillance strategies and incursion response plans.

Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of rabies into Japan through the illegal landing of dogs from Russian fishing boats in the ports of Hokkaido, Japan

Japan has been free from rabies since 1958 and various preventive measures are in place protecting the country from the introduction of the disease. Historical reviews indicate that the illegal landing of dogs from Russian fishing boats in the ports of Hokkaido occurred frequently especially in the early 2000s and this could potentially be a source of introduction of rabies into Japan. The method of scenario tree modelling was used and the following entry and exposure pathway was considered the most likely route of rabies entry: a rabies-infected dog arriving on a Russian fishing boat lands in a port of Hokkaido in Japan, it becomes infectious, contacts and infects a susceptible domestic animal (companion dog, stray dog or wildlife). Input parameter values were based on surveys of Russian fishermen, expert opinion and scientific data from the literature. At present (2006-2015), the probability of the introduction of rabies as a result of one Russian fishing boat arriving at a port of Hokkaido is 8.33×10(-10) (90% Prediction Interval (PI): 7.15×10(-11)-5.34×10(-9)), while this probability would have been 7.70×10(-9) (90% PI: 6.40×10(-10)-4.81×10(-8)) in the past (1998-2005). Under the current situation (average annual number of boat arrivals is 1106), rabies would enter Japan every 1,084,849 (90% PI: 169,215-20,188,348) years, while the disease would have been introduced every 18,309 (90% PI: 2929-220,048) years in the past (average annual number of boat arrivals is 7092). The risk of rabies introduction has decreased 59 fold due to both the effective control of the issue of illegal landing of dogs and the decline in the number of Russian boat arrivals. Control efforts include education of Russian fishermen, establishment of warning signs, daily patrols and regular port surveillance of potential dog landing activity. Furthermore, scenario analysis revealed that the policy of mandatory domestic dog vaccination does not contribute effectively to Japan's rabies prevention system under rabies-free situation. Although the current risk of rabies introduction is minimal, control measures against the illegal landing of dogs must be maintained. Further risk management measures, such as the removal of wildlife from the port area and regular monitoring of the rabies situation in Russia (particularly the easternmost regions), can be established to strengthen the current rabies prevention system in Hokkaido.

A Survey of Dog Owners in Remote Northern Australian Indigenous Communities to Inform Rabies Incursion Planning

Australia is underprepared for a rabies incursion due to a lack of information about how a rabies outbreak would spread within the susceptible canine populations and which control strategies would be best to control it. The aim of this study was to collect information to parameterize a recently developed dog rabies spread model as well as use this information to gauge how the community would accept potential control strategies. Such information-together with model outputs-would be used to inform decision makers on the best control strategies and improve Australia's preparedness against a canine rabies incursion. The parameters this study focussed on were detection time, vaccination rates and dog-culling and dog movement restriction compliance. A cross-sectional survey of 31 dog-owners, using a questionnaire, was undertaken in the five communities of the Northern Peninsular Area (NPA) in northern Australia regarding community dog movements, veterinary visits, reporting systems, perceptions of sick dogs and potential human behaviours during hypothetical rabies outbreaks. It highlighted the significant shortfalls in veterinary care that would need to be vastly improved during an outbreak, who educational programs should be targeted towards and which dog movements should be restricted. The results indicate that men were significantly more likely than women to allow their dogs to roam and to move their dogs. The current low vaccination rate of 12% highlighted the limited veterinary services that would need to be substantially increased to achieve effective rabies control. Participation in mass vaccination was accepted by 100% of the respondents. There was lower acceptance for other possible rabies control strategies with 10-20% of the respondents stating a resistance to both a mass culling program and a ban on dog movements. Consequently, movement bans and mass dog culling would have limited effectiveness as a control strategy in the NPA community. More than half of the respondents said that they would report their sick dogs within a week. This would lead to a much more optimistic rabies detection time than observed in other regions with recent dog rabies outbreaks. Findings from this study can be used to parameterize a recently developed dog rabies spread model as well as to develop informed policies for managing a future rabies incursion, thus improving Australia's preparedness against a canine rabies incursion.

Vaccinate-assess-move method of mass canine rabies vaccination utilising mobile technology data collection in Ranchi, India

BACKGROUND

Over 20,000 people die from rabies each year in India. At least 95 % of people contract rabies from an infected dog. Annual vaccination of over 70 % of the dog population has eliminated both canine and human rabies in many countries. Despite having the highest burden of rabies in the world, there have been very few studies which have reported the successful, large scale vaccination of dogs in India. Furthermore, many Indian canine rabies vaccination programmes have not achieved high vaccine coverage.

METHODS

In this study, we utilised a catch-vaccinate-release approach in a canine rabies vaccination programme in 18 wards in Ranchi, India. Following vaccination, surveys of the number of marked, vaccinated and unmarked, unvaccinated dogs were undertaken. A bespoke smartphone 'Mission Rabies' application was developed to facilitate data entry and team management. This enabled GPS capture of the location of all vaccinated dogs and dogs sighted on post vaccination surveys. In areas where coverage was below 70 %, catching teams were re-deployed to vaccinate more dogs followed by repeat survey.

RESULTS

During the initial vaccination cycle, 6593 dogs were vaccinated. Vaccination coverage was over 70 % in 14 of the 18 wards. A second cycle of vaccination was performed in the 4 wards where initial vaccination coverage was below 70 %. Following this second round of vaccination, coverage was reassessed and found to be over 70 % in two wards and only just below 70 % in the final two wards (66.7 % and 68.2 %, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that mobile technology enabled efficient team management and rapid data entry and analysis. The vaccination approach outlined in this study has the potential to facilitate the rapid vaccination of large numbers of dogs at a high coverage in free roaming dog populations in India.

Animal-associated exposure to rabies virus among travelers, 1997-2012

No demographic characteristics identified who might benefit most from pretravel counseling.

Among travelers, rabies cases are rare, but animal bites are relatively common. To determine which travelers are at highest risk for rabies, we studied 2,697 travelers receiving care for animal-related exposures and requiring rabies postexposure prophylaxis at GeoSentinel clinics during 1997–2012. No specific demographic characteristics differentiated these travelers from other travelers seeking medical care, making it challenging to identify travelers who might benefit from reinforced pretravel rabies prevention counseling. Median travel duration was short for these travelers: 15 days for those seeking care after completion of travel and 20 days for those seeking care during travel. This finding contradicts the view that preexposure rabies vaccine recommendations should be partly based on longer travel durations. Over half of exposures occurred in Thailand, Indonesia, Nepal, China, and India. International travelers to rabies-endemic regions, particularly Asia, should be informed about potential rabies exposure and benefits of pretravel vaccination, regardless of demographics or length of stay.

Global epidemiology of canine rabies: past, present, and future prospects

The rabies virus, a public health scourge from ancient times, is currently responsible for an estimated 59,000 human deaths a year, almost all transmitted via dog bites. It causes considerable economic impacts on developing countries, primarily in Africa and Asia, which can least afford these losses. However, despite its almost 100% case fatality rate, canine rabies is a completely preventable disease, and historic examples of canine rabies elimination in the developed world attest to this. Over the last decade, programs based on eliminating the source of the disease from dogs have shown success in reducing the public health burden of canine rabies in developing countries, notably across Latin America, and this has contributed to the growing evidence base necessary to change attitudes toward the feasibility of global canine rabies elimination. More recently, assessments of the current economic burden of canine rabies and the potential cost savings achievable through mass dog vaccinations have been added to this evidence base. Tools and support are available from the international community to help countries move progressively toward canine rabies elimination, and there is optimism that global freedom from canine rabies can be achieved within the next few decades.

Effective vaccination against rabies in puppies in rabies endemic regions

In rabies endemic regions, a proportionally higher incidence of rabies is often reported in dogs younger than 12 months of age, which includes puppies less than 3 months of age; this presents a serious risk to public health. The higher incidence of rabies in young dogs may be the effect of low vaccination coverage in this age class, partly as a result of the perception that immature immune systems and maternal antibodies inhibit seroconversion to rabies vaccine in puppies less than three months of age. Therefore, to test this perception, the authors report the virus neutralising antibody titres from 27 dogs that were vaccinated with high quality, inactivated rabies vaccine aged three months of age and under as part of larger serological studies undertaken in Gauteng Province, South Africa, and the Serengeti District, Tanzania. All of these dogs seroconverted to a single dose of vaccine with no adverse reactions reported and with postvaccinal peak titres ranging from 2.0 IU/ml to 90.5 IU/ml. In light of these results, and the risk of human beings contracting rabies from close contact with puppies, the authors recommend that all dogs in rabies endemic regions, including those less than three months of age, are vaccinated with high quality, inactivated vaccine.

On dogs, people, and a rabies epidemic: results from a sociocultural study in Bali, Indonesia

Background

Previously free of rabies, Bali experienced an outbreak in 2008, which has since caused a large number of human fatalities. In response, both mass dog culling and vaccination have been implemented. In order to assess potential community-driven interventions for optimizing rabies control, we conducted a study exploring the relationship between dogs, rabies, and the Balinese community. The objectives of this study were to: i) understand the human-dog relationship in Bali; ii) explore local knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs) relating to rabies; and iii) assess potential community-driven activities to optimize rabies control and surveillance.

Methods

Conducted between February and June 2011, the study combined a questionnaire (n = 300; CI = 95 %; error margin = 5 %) and focus group discussions (FGDs) in 10 villages in the Denpasar, Gianyar, and Karangasem regencies. The questionnaire included a Likert scale to assess community knowledge and attitudes. For the knowledge assessment, three points were given for a correct answer, while wrong answers and uncertain answers were given zero points. For the attitudes assessment, three points were given for a positive answer, two points for a neutral answer, and one point for a negative answer. Respondent knowledge was categorized as good (score >40), fair (score 20–40), or poor (score <20), based on a maximum total score 60. Respondent attitudes were categorized as positive (score >26), neutral (score 13–26), or negative (score <13), based on a maximum total score of 39. Mixed-gender FGDs in each sub-village (banjar) were conducted, each involving 7–15 participants to complement the questionnaire results. On a follow-up research trip in mid-2013, the data analysis was triangulated and validated using semi-structured interviews. Questionnaire data were analyzed descriptively using SPSS 17.0, while qualitative data from interviews and FGDs were analyzed manually according to accepted methods of coding and memo writing. The chi-square test was then used to analyze the statistical relationships between knowledge and attitudes of the respondents.

Results

Out of the total 300 respondents, most were predominantly male (82 %), Hindu (99 %), married (96 %), older than 30 years of age (92 %), and owned dogs (72 %). Dog ownership was motivated by culture, personal taste, and function, with dogs was being used as guards (85 %) and companion animals (27 %), and was sometimes related to religious or traditional obligations (2 %). Relating to their culture and local beliefs, and eventually becoming their way of life, 79 % of respondents kept free-roaming dogs. With the rabies outbreak in Bali and Western breeds becoming more popular, more responsible dog ownership (leashing, confining, regular feeding) became more acceptable and changed community perceptions on keeping dogs, even though the sustainability of this practice cannot be gauged. In addition, the economic situation posed major problems in rural areas. The level of community knowledge about rabies and its associated control programs were generally fair and community attitudes were positive. However, community KAPs still need to be improved. A total of 74 % respondents reported to have vaccinated their dogs in 2011, but only few were found to report rabid animals to livestock officers (12 %) and a significant number believed that washing a bite wound was not important (62 %). Moreover, free-roaming dog practices and discarding of unwanted female puppies still continue and possibly create difficulties for rabies elimination as these practices potentially increase the stray dog population. We identified three major sociocultural aspects with potential for community-driven interventions to optimize current rabies elimination efforts: integrating local notions of ahimsa (non-violence) into education campaigns, engaging communities through the local banjar sociopolitical system, and working with traditional legal structures to increase local compliance with rabies control.

Conclusion

The human-dog relationship in Bali is multifaceted. Due to the uniqueness of the culture and the local beliefs, and encouraged by a socioeconomic aspect, a number of local practices were found to be constituting risk factors for continued rabies spread. Community knowledge and attitudes, which can consequently result in behavioral changes, needs to be improved across different genders, ages, educational backgrounds, and roles in the community, regardless of the individual village’s experiences with rabies. Furthermore, community-driven activities based on sociocultural conditioning and community capacity at the banjar and village levels, such as public awareness activities, vaccination, dog registration, dog population management, and rapid response to dog bites, were identified as being able to complement the rabies control program in Bali. The program also needs recognition or acknowledgement from governments, especially local government as well as regular mentoring to improve and sustain community participation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-015-0061-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Development of a Novel Rabies Simulation Model for Application in a Non-endemic Environment

Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R₀ 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs’ roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population.

Rabies in domestic dog populations still causes >50,000 human deaths worldwide each year. While its eradication by vaccination of the reservoir population (dogs and wildlife) was successful in many parts of the world, it is still present in the developing world and continues to spread to new regions. Theoretical rabies models supporting control plans do exist for rabies endemic regions; however these models usually provide information for long-term programs. Here, we describe a novel rabies simulation model for application in rabies-free regions experiencing an incursion. The model simulates a rabies outbreak in the free-ranging dog population in remote indigenous communities in northern Australia. Vaccination, dog density reduction and dog confinement are implemented as control strategies. Model outputs suggest that the outbreak lasts for an average of 7 months and typically spreads through all communities of the region. Dog vaccination was found to be the most effective response strategy. The model produces plausible results and can be used to provide information for ad-hoc response planning before and shortly after rabies incursion.

Rabies control and elimination: a test case for One Health

One Health approaches have already been shown to be successful in controlling rabies in different parts of the world. In this article, the latest in Veterinary Record's series promoting One Health, Sarah Cleaveland and her colleagues at the University of Glasgow discuss why integrated strategies are needed to enhance the cost effectiveness of measures to control and eliminate rabies, particularly in low-income countries.

Owned and unowned dog population estimation, dog management and dog bites to inform rabies prevention and response on Lombok Island, Indonesia

Although Indonesia has been rabies-infected since at least the 1880s, some islands remain rabies-free, such as Lombok. However, due to its adjacency to rabies-infected islands such as Bali and Flores, there is considerable risk of a rabies incursion. As part of a rabies risk assessment project, surveys were conducted to estimate the size of the dog population and to describe dog management practices of households belonging to different ethnic groups. A photographic-recapture method was employed and the number of unowned dogs was estimated. A total of 400 dog owning households were interviewed, 300 at an urban site and 100 at a rural site. The majority of the interviewed households belonged to the Balinese ethnic group. Owned dogs were more likely male, and non-pedigree or local breed. These households kept their dogs either fully restricted, semi-free roaming or free-roaming but full restriction was reported only at the urban site. Dog bite cases were reported to be higher at the urban site, and commonly affected children/young adults to 20 years old and males. A higher number of unowned dogs was observed at the urban site than at the rural site. Data generated within these surveys can inform rabies risk assessment models to quantify the probability of rabies being released into Lombok and resulting in the infection of the local dog population. The information gained is critical for efforts to educate dog owners about rabies, as a component of preparedness to prevent the establishment of rabies should an incursion occur.

Estimating the global burden of endemic canine rabies

BACKGROUND

Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000) human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion) economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%), followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20%) and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%), with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%), and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to monitor the impacts of control efforts.

Estimating the global burden of endemic canine rabies

BACKGROUND

Rabies is a notoriously underreported and neglected disease of low-income countries. This study aims to estimate the public health and economic burden of rabies circulating in domestic dog populations, globally and on a country-by-country basis, allowing an objective assessment of how much this preventable disease costs endemic countries.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We established relationships between rabies mortality and rabies prevention and control measures, which we incorporated into a model framework. We used data derived from extensive literature searches and questionnaires on disease incidence, control interventions and preventative measures within this framework to estimate the disease burden. The burden of rabies impacts on public health sector budgets, local communities and livestock economies, with the highest risk of rabies in the poorest regions of the world. This study estimates that globally canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 (95% Confidence Intervals: 25-159,000) human deaths, over 3.7 million (95% CIs: 1.6-10.4 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 8.6 billion USD (95% CIs: 2.9-21.5 billion) economic losses annually. The largest component of the economic burden is due to premature death (55%), followed by direct costs of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP, 20%) and lost income whilst seeking PEP (15.5%), with only limited costs to the veterinary sector due to dog vaccination (1.5%), and additional costs to communities from livestock losses (6%).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates that investment in dog vaccination, the single most effective way of reducing the disease burden, has been inadequate and that the availability and affordability of PEP needs improving. Collaborative investments by medical and veterinary sectors could dramatically reduce the current large, and unnecessary, burden of rabies on affected communities. Improved surveillance is needed to reduce uncertainty in burden estimates and to monitor the impacts of control efforts.

Uptake of rabies control measures by dog owners in Flores Island, Indonesia

BACKGROUND

Rabies has been a serious public health threat in Flores Island, Indonesia since it was introduced in 1997. To control the disease, annual dog vaccination campaigns have been implemented to vaccinate all dogs free of charge. Nevertheless, the uptake rate of the vaccination campaigns has been low. The objective of this paper is to identify risk factors associated with the uptake of rabies control measures by individual dog owners in Flores Island.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A total of 450 dog owners from 44 randomly selected villages in the Sikka and Manggarai regencies were interviewed regarding their socio-demographic factors, knowledge of rabies, and their uptake of rabies control measures. The majority of dog owners surveyed (>90%) knew that rabies is a fatal disease and that it can be prevented. Moreover, 68% of the dog owners had a high level of knowledge about available rabies control measures. Fifty-two percent of the dog owners had had at least one of their dogs vaccinated during the 2012 vaccination campaign. Vaccination uptake was significantly higher for dog owners who resided in Sikka, kept female dogs for breeding, had an income of more than one million Rupiah, and had easy access to their village. The most important reasons not to join the vaccination campaign were lack of information about the vaccination campaign schedule (40%) and difficulty to catch the dog during the vaccination campaign (37%).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Dog owners in Flores Island had a high level of knowledge of rabies and its control, but this was not associated with uptake of the 2012 vaccination campaign. Geographical accessibility was one of the important factors influencing the vaccination uptake among dog owners. Targeted distribution of information on vaccination schedules and methods to catch and restrain dogs in those villages with poor accessibility may increase vaccination uptake in the future.

Comparison of mark-resight methods to estimate abundance and rabies vaccination coverage of free-roaming dogs in two urban areas of south Bhutan

In Bhutan, Capture-Neuter-Vaccinate-Release (CNVR) programs have been implemented to manage the dog population and control rabies, but no detailed evaluation has been done to assess their coverage and impact. We compared estimates of the dog population using three analytical methods: Lincoln-Petersen index, the Chapman estimate, and the logit-normal mixed effects model, and a varying number of count periods at different times of the day to recommend a protocol for applying the mark-resight framework to estimate free-roaming dog population abundance. We assessed the coverage of the CNVR program by estimating the proportion of dogs that were ear-notched and visually scored the health and skin condition of free-roaming dogs in Gelephu and Phuentsholing towns in south Bhutan, bordering India, in September-October 2012. The estimated free-roaming dog population in Gelephu using the Lincoln-Petersen index and Chapman estimates ranged from 612 to 672 and 614 to 671, respectively, while the logit-normal mixed effects model estimate based on the combined two count events was 641 (95% CI: 603-682). In Phuentsholing the Lincoln-Petersen index and Chapman estimates ranged from 525 to 583 and 524 to 582, respectively, while the logit-normal mixed effects model estimate based on the combined four count events was 555 (95% CI: 526-587). The total number of dogs counted was significantly associated with the time of day (AM versus PM; P=0.007), with a 17% improvement in dog sightings during the morning counting events. We recommend to conduct a morning marking followed by one count event the next morning and estimate population size by applying the Lincoln-Peterson corrected Chapman method or conduct two morning count events and apply the logit-normal mixed model to estimate population size. The estimated proportion of vaccinated free-roaming dogs was 56% (95% CI: 52-61%) and 58% (95% CI: 53-62%) in Gelephu and Phuentsholing, respectively. Given coverage in many neighbourhoods was below the recommended threshold of 70%, we recommend conducting an annual "mass dog vaccination only" campaign in southern Bhutan to create an immune buffer in this high rabies-risk area. The male-to-female dog ratio was 1.34:1 in Gelephu and 1.27:1 in Pheuntsholing. Population size estimates using mark-resight surveys has provided useful baseline data for understanding the population dynamics of dogs at the study sites. Mark-resight surveys provide useful information for designing and managing the logistics of dog vaccination or CNVR programs, assessing vaccination coverage, and for evaluating the impact of neutering programs on the size and structure of dog populations over time.

Achieving population-level immunity to rabies in free-roaming dogs in Africa and Asia

Canine rabies can be effectively controlled by vaccination with readily available, high-quality vaccines. These vaccines should provide protection from challenge in healthy dogs, for the claimed period, for duration of immunity, which is often two or three years. It has been suggested that, in free-roaming dog populations where rabies is endemic, vaccine-induced protection may be compromised by immuno-suppression through malnutrition, infection and other stressors. This may reduce the proportion of dogs that seroconvert to the vaccine during vaccination campaigns and the duration of immunity of those dogs that seroconvert. Vaccination coverage may also be limited through insufficient vaccine delivery during vaccination campaigns and the loss of vaccinated individuals from populations through demographic processes. This is the first longitudinal study to evaluate temporal variations in rabies vaccine-induced serological responses, and factors associated with these variations, at the individual level in previously unvaccinated free-roaming dog populations. Individual-level serological and health-based data were collected from three cohorts of dogs in regions where rabies is endemic, one in South Africa and two in Indonesia. We found that the vast majority of dogs seroconverted to the vaccine; however, there was considerable variation in titres, partly attributable to illness and lactation at the time of vaccination. Furthermore, >70% of the dogs were vaccinated through community engagement and door-to-door vaccine delivery, even in Indonesia where the majority of the dogs needed to be caught by net on successive occasions for repeat blood sampling and vaccination. This demonstrates the feasibility of achieving population-level immunity in free-roaming dog populations in rabies-endemic regions. However, attrition of immune individuals through demographic processes and waning immunity necessitates repeat vaccination of populations within at least two years to ensure communities are protected from rabies. These findings support annual mass vaccination campaigns as the most effective means to control canine rabies.

Roaming behaviour and home range estimation of domestic dogs in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities in northern Australia using four different methods

Disease transmission parameters are the core of epidemic models, but are difficult to estimate, especially in the absence of outbreak data. Investigation of the roaming behaviour, home range (HR) and utilization distribution (UD) can provide the foundation for such parameter estimation in free-ranging animals. The objectives of this study were to estimate HR and UD of 69 domestic dogs in six Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities in northern Australia and to compare four different methods (the minimum convex polygon, MCP; the location-based kernel density estimation, LKDE; the biased random bridge, BRB; and Time Local Convex Hull, T-LoCoH) for investigation of UD and estimating HR sizes. Global positioning system (GPS) collars were attached to community dogs for a period of 1-3 days and positions (fixes) were recorded every minute. Median core HRs (50% isopleth) of the 69 dogs were estimated to range from 0.2 to 0.4 ha and the more extended HR (95% isopleth) to range from 2.5 to 5.3 ha, depending on the method used. The HR and UD shapes were found to be generally circular around the dog owner's house. However, some individuals were found to roam much more with a HR size of 40-104 ha and cover large areas of their community or occasionally beyond. These far roaming dogs are of particular interest for infectious disease transmission. Occasionally, dogs were taken between communities and out of communities for hunting, which enables the contact of dogs between communities and with wildlife (such as dingoes). The BRB and T-LoCoH are the only two methods applied here which integrate the consecutiveness of GPS locations into the analysis, a substantial advantage. The recently developed BRB method produced significantly larger HR estimates than the other two methods; however, the variability of HR sizes was lower compared to the other methods. Advantages of the BRB method include a more realistic analytical approach (kernel density estimation based on movements rather than on locations), possibilities to deal with irregular time periods between consecutive GPS fixes and parameter specification which respects the characteristics of the GPS unit used to collect the data. The BRB method was therefore the most suitable method for UD estimation in this dataset. The results of this study can further be used to contact rates between the dogs within and between communities, a foundation for estimating transmission parameters for canine infectious disease models, such as a rabies spread model in Australia.

Eliminating rabies in Tanzania? Local understandings and responses to mass dog vaccination in Kilombero and Ulanga districts

BACKGROUND

With increased global attention to neglected diseases, there has been a resurgence of interest in eliminating rabies from developing countries through mass dog vaccination. Tanzania recently embarked on an ambitious programme to repeatedly vaccinate dogs in 28 districts. To understand community perceptions and responses to this programme, we conducted an anthropological study exploring the relationships between dogs, society, geography and project implementation in the districts of Kilombero and Ulanga, Southern Tanzania.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Over three months in 2012, we combined the use of focus groups, semi-structured interviews, a household questionnaire and a population-based survey. Willingness to participate in vaccination was mediated by fear of rabies, high medical treatment costs and the threat of dog culling, as well as broader notions of social responsibility. However, differences between town, rural and (agro-) pastoralist populations in livelihood patterns and dog ownership impacted coverage in ways that were not well incorporated into project planning. Coverage in six selected villages was estimated at 25%, well below official estimates. A variety of problems with campaign mobilisation, timing, the location of central points, equipment and staff, and project organisation created barriers to community compliance. Resource-limitations and institutional norms limited the ability for district staff to adapt implementation strategies.

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

In the shadows of resource and institutional limitations in the veterinary sector in Africa, top-down interventions for neglected zoonotic diseases likes rabies need to more explicitly engage with project organisation, capacity and community participation. Greater attention to navigating local realities in planning and implementation is essential to ensuring that rabies, and other neglected diseases, are controlled sustainably.

Canine rabies in Australia: a review of preparedness and research needs

Australia is unique as a populated continent in that canine rabies is exotic, with only one likely incursion in 1867. This is despite the presence of a widespread free-ranging dog population, which includes the naturalized dingo, feral domestic dogs and dingo-dog cross-breeds. To Australia's immediate north, rabies has recently spread within the Indonesian archipelago, with outbreaks occurring in historically free islands to the east including Bali, Flores, Ambon and the Tanimbar Islands. Australia depends on strict quarantine protocols to prevent importation of a rabid animal, but the risk of illegal animal movements by fishing and recreational vessels circumventing quarantine remains. Predicting where rabies will enter Australia is important, but understanding dog population dynamics and interactions, including contact rates in and around human populations, is essential for rabies preparedness. The interactions among and between Australia's large populations of wild, free-roaming and restrained domestic dogs require quantification for rabies incursions to be detected and controlled. The imminent risk of rabies breaching Australian borders makes the development of disease spread models that will assist in the deployment of cost-effective surveillance, improve preventive strategies and guide disease management protocols vitally important. Here, we critically review Australia's preparedness for rabies, discuss prevailing assumptions and models, identify knowledge deficits in free-roaming dog ecology relating to rabies maintenance and speculate on the likely consequences of endemic rabies for Australia.

Costs of rabies control: an economic calculation method applied to Flores Island

BACKGROUND

Rabies is a zoonotic disease that, in most human cases, is fatal once clinical signs appear. The disease transmits to humans through an animal bite. Dogs are the main vector of rabies in humans on Flores Island, Indonesia, resulting in about 19 human deaths each year. Currently, rabies control measures on Flores Island include mass vaccination and culling of dogs, laboratory diagnostics of suspected rabid dogs, putting imported dogs in quarantine, and pre- and post-exposure treatment (PET) of humans. The objective of this study was to estimate the costs of the applied rabies control measures on Flores Island.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A deterministic economic model was developed to calculate the costs of the rabies control measures and their individual cost components from 2000 to 2011. The inputs for the economic model were obtained from (i) relevant literature, (ii) available data on Flores Island, and (iii) experts such as responsible policy makers and veterinarians involved in rabies control measures in the past. As a result, the total costs of rabies control measures were estimated to be US$1.12 million (range: US$0.60-1.47 million) per year. The costs of culling roaming dogs were the highest portion, about 39 percent of the total costs, followed by PET (35 percent), mass vaccination (24 percent), pre-exposure treatment (1.4 percent), and others (1.3 percent) (dog-bite investigation, diagnostic of suspected rabid dogs, trace-back investigation of human contact with rabid dogs, and quarantine of imported dogs).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates that rabies has a large economic impact on the government and dog owners. Control of rabies by culling dogs is relatively costly for the dog owners in comparison with other measures. Providing PET for humans is an effective way to prevent rabies, but is costly for government and does not provide a permanent solution to rabies in the future.

Designing programs for eliminating canine rabies from islands: Bali, Indonesia as a case study

BACKGROUND

Canine rabies is one of the most important and feared zoonotic diseases in the world. In some regions rabies elimination is being successfully coordinated, whereas in others rabies is endemic and continues to spread to uninfected areas. As epidemics emerge, both accepted and contentious control methods are used, as questions remain over the most effective strategy to eliminate rabies. The Indonesian island of Bali was rabies-free until 2008 when an epidemic in domestic dogs began, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Here we analyze data from the epidemic and compare the effectiveness of control methods at eliminating rabies.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Using data from Bali, we estimated the basic reproductive number, R(0), of rabies in dogs, to be ~1 · 2, almost identical to that obtained in ten-fold less dense dog populations and suggesting rabies will not be effectively controlled by reducing dog density. We then developed a model to compare options for mass dog vaccination. Comprehensive high coverage was the single most important factor for achieving elimination, with omission of even small areas (<0.5% of the dog population) jeopardizing success. Parameterizing the model with data from the 2010 and 2011 vaccination campaigns, we show that a comprehensive high coverage campaign in 2012 would likely result in elimination, saving ~550 human lives and ~$15 million in prophylaxis costs over the next ten years.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The elimination of rabies from Bali will not be achieved through achievable reductions in dog density. To ensure elimination, concerted high coverage, repeated, mass dog vaccination campaigns are necessary and the cooperation of all regions of the island is critical. Momentum is building towards development of a strategy for the global elimination of canine rabies, and this study offers valuable new insights about the dynamics and control of this disease, with immediate practical relevance.

Phylogenetic analysis and victim contact tracing of rabies virus from humans and dogs in Bali, Indonesia

The emergence of human and animal rabies in Bali since November 2008 has attracted local, national and international interest. The potential origin and time of introduction of rabies virus to Bali is described. The nucleoprotein (N) gene of rabies virus from dog brain and human clinical specimens was sequenced using an automated DNA sequencer. Phylogenetic inference with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis using the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis by Sampling Trees (BEAST) v. 1.7.5 software confirmed that the outbreak of rabies in Bali was caused by an Indonesian lineage virus following a single introduction. The ancestor of Bali viruses was the descendant of a virus from Kalimantan. Contact tracing showed that the event most likely occurred in early 2008. The introduction of rabies into a large unvaccinated dog population in Bali clearly demonstrates the risk of disease transmission for government agencies and should lead to an increased preparedness and efforts for sustained risk reduction to prevent such events from occurring in future.