Refining the global spatial limits of dengue virus transmission by evidence-based consensus

False-negative dengue cases in Roraima, Brazil: an approach regarding the high number of negative results by NS1 ag kits

Serum samples from 150 NS1-negative (Platelia ELISA) patients presumptively diagnosed with dengue were analyzed by the TaqMan probed real-time reverse transcription PCR (TaqMan qRT-PCR) method. The qRT-PCR positive samples were tested for serotype by semi-nested RT-PCR and a qualitative immunochromatographic assay for IgG and IgM. Molecular detection methods showed 33 (22%) positive samples out of 150 NS1-antigen negative samples. Of these, 72% were collected up to day 2 after the onset of symptoms, when diagnostic sensitivity of NS1-antigen test assays is significantly enhanced. Most of the cases were not characterized as secondary infection. Twenty-eight samples were successfully serotyped, 75% of which for DENV-4, 14% for DENV-2, 7% for DENV-3 and 4% for DENV-1. These findings reaffirm the hyperendemic situation of the state of Roraima and suggest a lower sensitivity of the NS1 test, mainly when DENV-4 is the predominant serotype. Health care providers should therefore be aware of samples tested negative by NS1 antigen assays, especially when clinical symptoms and other laboratory data results show evidence of dengue infection.

Dengue on islands: a Bayesian approach to understanding the global ecology of dengue viruses

Background

Transmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the most common arboviral pathogens globally, is influenced by many climatic and socioeconomic factors. However, the relative contributions of these factors on a global scale are unclear.

Methods

We randomly selected 94 islands stratified by socioeconomic and geographic characteristics. With a Bayesian model, we assessed factors contributing to the probability of islands having a history of any dengue outbreaks and of having frequent outbreaks.

Results

Minimum temperature was strongly associated with suitability for DENV transmission. Islands with a minimum monthly temperature of greater than 14.8°C (95% CI: 12.4–16.6°C) were predicted to be suitable for DENV transmission. Increased population size and precipitation were associated with increased outbreak frequency, but did not capture all of the variability. Predictions for 48 testing islands verified these findings.

Conclusions

This analysis clarified two key components of DENV ecology: minimum temperature was the most important determinant of suitability; and endemicity was more likely in areas with high precipitation and large, but not necessarily dense, populations. Wealth and connectivity, in contrast, had no discernable effects. This model adds to our knowledge of global determinants of dengue risk and provides a basis for understanding the ecology of dengue endemicity.

The many projected futures of dengue

Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.

Economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico

BACKGROUND

Dengue imposes a substantial economic and disease burden in most tropical and subtropical countries. Dengue incidence and severity have dramatically increased in Mexico during the past decades. Having objective and comparable estimates of the economic burden of dengue is essential to inform health policy, increase disease awareness, and assess the impact of dengue prevention and control technologies.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We estimated the annual economic and disease burden of dengue in Mexico for the years 2010-2011. We merged multiple data sources, including a prospective cohort study; patient interviews and macro-costing from major hospitals; surveillance, budget, and health data from the Ministry of Health; WHO cost estimates; and available literature. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to derive 95% certainty levels (CL) for our estimates. Results suggest that Mexico had about 139,000 (95%CL: 128,000-253,000) symptomatic and 119 (95%CL: 75-171) fatal dengue episodes annually on average (2010-2011), compared to an average of 30,941 symptomatic and 59 fatal dengue episodes reported. The annual cost, including surveillance and vector control, was US$170 (95%CL: 151-292) million, or $1.56 (95%CL: 1.38-2.68) per capita, comparable to other countries in the region. Of this, $87 (95%CL: 87-209) million or $0.80 per capita (95%CL: 0.62-1.12) corresponds to illness. Annual disease burden averaged 65 (95%CL: 36-99) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million population. Inclusion of long-term sequelae, co-morbidities, impact on tourism, and health system disruption during outbreaks would further increase estimated economic and disease burden.

CONCLUSION

With this study, Mexico joins Panama, Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, and Thailand as the only countries or areas worldwide with comprehensive (illness and preventive) empirical estimates of dengue burden. Burden varies annually; during an outbreak, dengue burden may be significantly higher than that of the pre-vaccine level of rotavirus diarrhea. In sum, Mexico's potential economic benefits from dengue control would be substantial.

A Multiplexed Cell-Based Assay for the Identification of Modulators of Pre-Membrane Processing as a Target against Dengue Virus

The DenV pre-membrane protein (prM) is a crucial chaperone for the viral envelope protein, preventing premature fusion with vesicles during viral export. prM molecules in immature particles are cleaved by host proteases, leading to mature fusogenic virions. Blockade of prM cleavage would restrict fusion and represents a novel druggable opportunity against DenV. We have thus established a cell-based platform to monitor prM processing that relies on an engineered two-tag scaffold that travels to the cell surface through the secretory pathway. The assay discriminates between a single cell-surface tag when prM is cleaved and two tags when it is not, as detected through fluorescent-coupled antibodies by flow cytometry. The assay, miniaturized into a 96-well plate format, was multiplexed with the HIV-1 envelope boundary, also cleaved in the same pathway. A pilot screen against 1280 compounds was executed, leading to the identification of a potential active and corroborating the robustness of our assay for large-scale screening. We describe for the first time a cell-based assay that monitors DenV prM processing within the classical secretory pathway, which was exploited to identify a potential novel drug against DenV.

Neutralizing dengue antibody in pregnant Thai women and cord blood

BACKGROUND

The WHO 'Global Strategy for Dengue Prevention and Control, 2012-2020' addresses the growing need for the treatment of dengue, and targets a 25% reduction in morbidity and 50% in mortality (using 2010 estimates as baseline). Achieving these goals requires future dengue prevention strategies that will employ both potential vaccines and sustainable vector-control measures. Maternally transferred dengue antibody is an important factor in determining the optimal age for dengue vaccination.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the seroprevalence of dengue antibodies among mothers living in an area of high endemicity--Ban Pong, Ratchaburi Province--and to assess maternal dengue antibodies transferred to cord blood.

MATERIALS & METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted with 141 pregnant women who delivered at Ban Pong Hospital, Ratchaburi, Thailand. Maternal-cord paired sera were tested for dengue neutralizing (NT) antibody by PRNT50 assay. A ratio of ≥ 1:10 NT titer to dengue serotype was considered seropositive.

RESULTS

Most mothers (137/141, 97.2%) had NT antibodies to at least one dengue serotype in their sera. At birth, the proportion of cord sera with NT antibodies to DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4, were high and similar to the sera of their mothers, at 93.6%, 97.2%, 97.9%, and 92.2%, respectively. The dengue geometric mean titers (GMT) in cord blood were significantly higher than the maternal antibodies (p<0.001): highest in DEN-2, followed by DEN-3, and then DEN-1. The GMT of DEN-4 was the lowest among all four serotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue infection is highly prevalent among pregnant women in this dengue-endemic area. Most of the cord blood had transferred dengue antibodies, which may have an impact on the disease burden in this population.

IgG against dengue virus in healthy blood donors, Zanzibar, Tanzania

We conducted a seroprevalence survey among 500 healthy adult donors at Zanzibar National Blood Transfusion Services. Dengue virus IgG seroprevalence was 50.6% and independently associated with age and urban residence. These data will aid in building a surveillance, preparedness, and response plan for dengue virus infections in the Zanzibar Archipelago.

Evidence of recent dengue exposure among malaria parasite-positive children in three urban centers in Ghana

Blood samples of 218 children ages 2-14 years old with confirmed malaria in hospitals across Ghana were tested for dengue virus exposure. We detected dengue-specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies in 3.2% of the children, indicating possible coinfection, and IgG antibodies in 21.6% of them, which suggests previous exposure. Correlates of exposure are discussed.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of dengue risk with temperature change

Dengue fever (DF) is the most serious mosquito-borne viral disease in the world and is significantly affected by temperature. Although associations between DF and temperatures have been reported repeatedly, conclusions have been inconsistent. Six databases were searched up to 23 March 2014, without language and geographical restrictions. The articles that studied the correlations between temperatures and dengue were selected, and a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals. Of 1589 identified articles, 137 were reviewed further, with 33 satisfying inclusion criteria. The closest associations were observed between mean temperature from the included studies (23.2–27.7 °C) and DF (OR 35.0% per 1 °C; 95% CI 18.3%–51.6%) positively. Additionally, minimum (18.1–24.2 °C) (29.5% per 1 °C; 20.9%–38.1%) and maximum temperature (28.0–34.5 °C) (28.9%; 10.3%–47.5%) were also associated with increased dengue transmission. The OR of DF incidence increased steeply from 22 °C to 29 °C, suggesting an inflexion of DF risk between these lower and upper limits of DF risk. This discovery is helpful for government decision-makers focused on preventing and controlling dengue in areas with temperatures within this range.

Elevated dengue virus nonstructural protein 1 serum levels and altered toll-like receptor 4 expression, nitric oxide, and tumor necrosis factor alpha production in dengue hemorrhagic Fever patients

Background. During dengue virus (DV) infection, monocytes produce tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and nitric oxide (NO) which might be critical to immunopathogenesis. Since intensity of DV replication may determine clinical outcomes, it is important to know the effects of viral nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) on innate immune parameters of infected patients. The present study investigates the relationships between dengue virus nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) serum levels and innate immune response (TLR4 expression and TNF-α/NO production) of DV infected patients presenting different clinical outcomes. Methodology/Principal Findings. We evaluated NO, NS1 serum levels (ELISA), TNF-α production by peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), and TLR4 expression on CD14⁺ cells from 37 dengue patients and 20 healthy controls. Early in infection, increased expression of TLR4 in monocytes of patients with dengue fever (DF) was detected compared to patients with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). Moreover, PBMCs of DHF patients showed higher NS1 and lower NO serum levels during the acute febrile phase and a reduced response to TLR4 stimulation by LPS (with a reduced TNF-α production) when compared to DF patients. Conclusions/Significance. During DV infection in humans, some innate immune parameters change, depending on the NS1 serum levels, and phase and severity of the disease which may contribute to development of different clinical outcomes.

International dispersal of dengue through air travel: importation risk for Europe

Background

The worldwide distribution of dengue is expanding, in part due to globalized traffic and trade. Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for dengue viruses (DENV) and is now established in numerous regions of Europe. Viremic travellers arriving in Europe from dengue-affected areas of the world can become catalysts of local outbreaks in Europe. Local dengue transmission in Europe is extremely rare, and the last outbreak occurred in 1927–28 in Greece. However, autochthonous transmission was reported from France in September 2010, and from Croatia between August and October 2010.

Methodology

We compiled data on areas affected by dengue in 2010 from web resources and surveillance reports, and collected national dengue importation data. We developed a hierarchical regression model to quantify the relationship between the number of reported dengue cases imported into Europe and the volume of airline travellers arriving from dengue-affected areas internationally.

Principal Findings

In 2010, over 5.8 million airline travellers entered Europe from dengue-affected areas worldwide, of which 703,396 arrived at 36 airports situated in areas where Ae. albopictus has been recorded. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for imported dengue into European countries was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17) for every increase of 10,000 travellers; in August, September, and October the rate ratios were 1.70 (95%CI: 1.23–2.35), 1.46 (95%CI: 1.02–2.10), and 1.35 (95%CI: 1.01–1.81), respectively. Two Italian cities where the vector is present received over 50% of all travellers from dengue-affected areas, yet with the continuing vector expansion more cities will be implicated in the future. In fact, 38% more travellers arrived in 2013 into those parts of Europe where Ae. albopictus has recently been introduced, compared to 2010.

Conclusions

The highest risk of dengue importation in 2010 was restricted to three months and can be ranked according to arriving traveller volume from dengue-affected areas into cities where the vector is present. The presence of the vector is a necessary, but not sufficient, prerequisite for DENV onward transmission, which depends on a number of additional factors. However, our empirical model can provide spatio-temporal elements to public health interventions.

The global disease burden of dengue is staggering. Continuous expansion and vaccine failures illustrate the limitations of current dengue control efforts. Novel approaches and additional tools are required to combat and contain the disease. In Europe, dengue infections are rare and the last outbreak of dengue occurred in the late 1920s, in Greece. In 2010, however, local transmission occurred in France and Croatia. Based on 2010 data, we present a novel quantitative model of the risk of dengue importation for Europe. The 2010 model predicts the risk of dengue importation to be greatest for Milan, Rome and Barcelona in August, September and October, precisely when vector activity is the highest. With the current expansion of the vector in Europe, more cities are projected to be at risk in the future. Thus, the model based on 2010 data quantifies the likelihood and timing of importation. This approach employs global travel data to assess dengue importation risk in the EU and illustrates how quantitative models could tailor infectious disease control to certain regions and time periods.

Approaches to refining estimates of global burden and economics of dengue

Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools for diagnosis, vaccination, vector control, and treatment are being developed, these recommended steps should improve objective, systematic measures of dengue burden to strengthen health policy decisions.

Dengue virus infections among Haitian and expatriate non-governmental organization workers--Léogane and Port-au-Prince, Haiti, 2012

In October 2012, the Haitian Ministry of Health and the US CDC were notified of 25 recent dengue cases, confirmed by rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), among non-governmental organization (NGO) workers. We conducted a serosurvey among NGO workers in Léogane and Port-au-Prince to determine the extent of and risk factors for dengue virus infection. Of the total 776 staff from targeted NGOs in Léogane and Port-au-Prince, 173 (22%; 52 expatriates and 121 Haitians) participated. Anti-dengue virus (DENV) IgM antibody was detected in 8 (15%) expatriates and 9 (7%) Haitians, and DENV non-structural protein 1 in one expatriate. Anti-DENV IgG antibody was detected in 162 (94%) participants (79% of expatriates; 100% of Haitians), and confirmed by microneutralization testing as DENV-specific in 17/34 (50%) expatriates and 42/42 (100%) Haitians. Of 254 pupae collected from 68 containers, 65% were Aedes aegypti; 27% were Ae. albopictus. Few NGO workers reported undertaking mosquito-avoidance action. Our findings underscore the risk of dengue in expatriate workers in Haiti and Haitians themselves.

Dengue is the most common mosquito-borne viral disease in the world, and caused an estimated 390 million infections and 96 million cases in the tropics and subtropics in 2010. Over the last decade, the number of cases of dengue and the severity of dengue virus infections have increased in the Americas, including the Caribbean, yet little is still known about dengue in Haiti. Following an outbreak of dengue in mostly expatriate NGO workers, the investigators of this study took blood samples from expatriate and Haitian NGO workers living in two cities in Haiti and tested them for evidence of current, recent, and past dengue virus infection. They also investigated the amount and kinds of mosquitoes at homes and work sites. The study found recent infections among some Haitians and expatriates and widespread past infections among all Haitians and most expatriates. It also found that many people were not doing basic things to avoid mosquito bites, like applying mosquito repellent multiple times a day and wearing long sleeves or pants. These findings highlight the likely endemicity of dengue virus in Haiti, and the need to improve knowledge and awareness of dengue prevention among expatriates visiting Haiti and local Haitians.

Advances in the understanding, management, and prevention of dengue

Dengue causes more human morbidity globally than any other vector-borne viral disease. Recent research has led to improved epidemiological methods that predict disease burden and factors involved in transmission, a better understanding of immune responses in infection, and enhanced animal models. In addition, a number of control measures, including preventative vaccines, are in clinical trials. However, significant gaps remain, including the need for better surveillance in large parts of the world, methods to predict which individuals will develop severe disease, and immunologic correlates of protection against dengue illness. During the next decade, dengue will likely expand its geographic reach and become an increasing burden on health resources in affected areas. Licensed vaccines and antiviral agents are needed in order to effectively control dengue and limit disease.

The global distribution and transmission limits of lymphatic filariasis: past and present

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for global elimination by 2020 and to guide elimination efforts countries have, in recent years, conducted extensive mapping surveys. Documenting the past and present distribution of LF and its environmental limits is important for a number of reasons. Here, we present an initiative to develop a global atlas of LF and present a new global map of the limits of LF transmission.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic search and assembly of prevalence data worldwide and used a suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression trees (BRT) modelling to map the transmission limits of LF.

RESULTS

Data were identified for 66 of the 72 countries currently endemic and for a further 17 countries where LF is no longer endemic. Our map highlights a restricted and highly heterogeneous distribution in sub-Saharan Africa, with transmission more widespread in West Africa compared to east, central and southern Africa where pockets of transmission occur. Contemporary transmission occurs across much of south and South-east Asia and the Pacific. Interestingly, the risk map reflects environmental conditions suitable for LF transmission across Central and South America, including the southern States of America, although active transmission is only known in a few isolated foci. In countries that have eliminated LF, our predictions of environmental suitability are consistent with historical distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

The global distribution of LF is highly heterogeneous and geographically targeted and sustained control will be required to achieve elimination. This first global map can help evaluate the progress of interventions and guide surveillance activities.

A probabilistic spatial dengue fever risk assessment by a threshold-based-quantile regression method

Understanding the spatial characteristics of dengue fever (DF) incidences is crucial for governmental agencies to implement effective disease control strategies. We investigated the associations between environmental and socioeconomic factors and DF geographic distribution, are proposed a probabilistic risk assessment approach that uses threshold-based quantile regression to identify the significant risk factors for DF transmission and estimate the spatial distribution of DF risk regarding full probability distributions. To interpret risk, return period was also included to characterize the frequency pattern of DF geographic occurrences. The study area included old Kaohsiung City and Fongshan District, two areas in Taiwan that have been affected by severe DF infections in recent decades. Results indicated that water-related facilities, including canals and ditches, and various types of residential area, as well as the interactions between them, were significant factors that elevated DF risk. By contrast, the increase of per capita income and its associated interactions with residential areas mitigated the DF risk in the study area. Nonlinear associations between these factors and DF risk were present in various quantiles, implying that water-related factors characterized the underlying spatial patterns of DF, and high-density residential areas indicated the potential for high DF incidence (e.g., clustered infections). The spatial distributions of DF risks were assessed in terms of three distinct map presentations: expected incidence rates, incidence rates in various return periods, and return periods at distinct incidence rates. These probability-based spatial risk maps exhibited distinct DF risks associated with environmental factors, expressed as various DF magnitudes and occurrence probabilities across Kaohsiung, and can serve as a reference for local governmental agencies.

Dengue in children

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease of expanding geographical range and increasing incidence. The vast majority of dengue cases are children less than 15 years of age. Dengue causes a spectrum of illness from mild fever to severe disease with plasma leakage and shock. Infants and children with secondary heterologous dengue infections are most at risk for severe dengue disease. Laboratory diagnosis of dengue can be established within five days of disease onset by direct detection of viral components in serum. After day five, serologic diagnosis provides indirect evidence of dengue. Currently, no effective antiviral agents are available to treat dengue infection. Therefore, treatment remains supportive, with emphasis on close hematological monitoring, recognition of warning signs of severe disease and fluid-replacement therapy and/or blood transfusions when required. Development of a dengue vaccine is considered a high public health priority. A safe and efficacious dengue vaccine would also be important for travelers. This review highlights the current understanding of dengue in children, including its clinical manifestations, pathogenesis, diagnostic tests, management and prevention.

Characterization of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the dengue vector population established in urban areas of Fernando de Noronha, a Brazilian oceanic island

Aedes aegypti has played a major role in the dramatic expansion of dengue worldwide. The failure of control programs in reducing the rhythm of global dengue expansion through vector control suggests the need for studies to support more appropriated control strategies. We report here the results of a longitudinal study on Ae. aegypti population dynamics through continuous egg sampling aiming to characterize the infestation of urban areas of a Brazilian oceanic island, Fernando de Noronha. The spatial and temporal distribution of the dengue vector population in urban areas of the island was described using a monitoring system (SMCP-Aedes) based on a 103-trap network for Aedes egg sampling, using GIS and spatial statistics analysis tools. Mean egg densities were estimated over a 29-month period starting in 2011 and producing monthly maps of mosquito abundance. The system detected continuous Ae. aegypti oviposition in most traps. The high global positive ovitrap index (POI=83.7% of 2815 events) indicated the frequent presence of blood-fed-egg laying females at every sampling station. Egg density (eggs/ovitrap/month) reached peak values of 297.3 (0 - 2020) in May and 295 (0 - 2140) in August 2012. The presence of a stable Ae. aegypti population established throughout the inhabited areas of the island was demonstrated. A strong association between egg abundance and rainfall with a 2-month lag was observed, which combined with a first-order autocorrelation observed in the series of egg counts can provide an important forecasting tool. This first description of the characteristics of the island infestation by the dengue vector provides baseline information to analyze relationships between the spatial distribution of the vector and dengue cases, and to the development of integrated vector control strategies.

Dengue and dengue vectors in the WHO European region: past, present, and scenarios for the future

After 55 years of absence, dengue has re-emerged in the WHO European region both as locally transmitted sporadic cases and as an outbreak in Madeira, driven by the introduction of people infected with the virus and the invasion of the vector mosquito species Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Models predict a further spread of A albopictus, particularly under climate change conditions. Dengue transmission models suggest a low risk in Europe, but these models too rarely include transmission by A albopictus (the main established vector). Further information gaps exist with regard to the Caucasus and central Asian countries of the WHO European region. Many European countries have implemented surveillance and control measures for invasive mosquitoes, but only a few include surveillance for dengue. As long as no dengue-specific prophylaxis or therapeutics are available, integrated vector management is the most sustainable control option. The rapid elimination of newly introduced A aegypti populations should be targeted in the European region, particularly in southern Europe and the Caucasus, where the species was present for decades until the 1950s.

Shifting patterns of Aedes aegypti fine scale spatial clustering in Iquitos, Peru

Background

Empiric evidence shows that Aedes aegypti abundance is spatially heterogeneous and that some areas and larval habitats produce more mosquitoes than others. There is a knowledge gap, however, with regards to the temporal persistence of such Ae. aegypti abundance hotspots. In this study, we used a longitudinal entomologic dataset from the city of Iquitos, Peru, to (1) quantify the spatial clustering patterns of adult Ae. aegypti and pupae counts per house, (2) determine overlap between clusters, (3) quantify the temporal stability of clusters over nine entomologic surveys spaced four months apart, and (4) quantify the extent of clustering at the household and neighborhood levels.

Methodologies/Principal Findings

Data from 13,662 household entomological visits performed in two Iquitos neighborhoods differing in Ae. aegypti abundance and dengue virus transmission was analyzed using global and local spatial statistics. The location and extent of Ae. aegypti pupae and adult hotspots (i.e., small groups of houses with significantly [p<0.05] high mosquito abundance) were calculated for each of the 9 entomologic surveys. The extent of clustering was used to quantify the probability of finding spatially correlated populations. Our analyses indicate that Ae. aegypti distribution was highly focal (most clusters do not extend beyond 30 meters) and that hotspots of high vector abundance were common on every survey date, but they were temporally unstable over the period of study.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings have implications for understanding Ae. aegypti distribution and for the design of surveillance and control activities relying on household-level data. In settings like Iquitos, where there is a relatively low percentage of Ae. aegypti in permanent water-holding containers, identifying and targeting key premises will be significantly challenged by shifting hotspots of Ae. aegypti infestation. Focusing efforts in large geographic areas with historically high levels of transmission may be more effective than targeting Ae. aegypti hotspots.

We carried out a comprehensive study of the long-term trends in household-level Aedes aegypti spatial distribution within a well-defined urban area endemic for dengue virus. By using a dataset consisting of 13,662 household entomological visits performed in two neighborhoods in Iquitos, Peru, we quantified the ∼3 year spatial clustering patterns of Ae. aegypti among houses and the temporal persistence of vector abundance hotspots. Our results provide strong support for the conclusion that Ae. aegypti distribution is highly focal and that hotspots of high vector abundance at the level of small groups of houses are common, but temporally unstable. Results from our study have implications for understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of Ae. aegypti abundance and for the design of surveillance and control activities that are based on household-level entomological data.

Development assistance for neglected tropical diseases: progress since 2009

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is an umbrella term for a diverse group of debilitating infections that represent the most common afflictions for 2.7 billion people living on less than US$2 per day. Major efforts have recently re-focused attention on NTDs, including structured advocacy by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, technical and political support by WHO and large-scale drug donation programs by pharmaceutical companies. An analysis of the Official Development Assistance (ODA) for NTDs in 2009 showed that Development Assistance Committee members and multilateral donors had largely ignored funding NTD control projects. This study reviews the changes since 2009 and finds an increased engagement by pharmaceutical manufacturers through drug donation programs substantially increased by the 'London Declaration' in 2012, a focused effort of 77 public and private partners on control or elimination of the 10 most common NTDs, but no increase in ODA for NTDs between 2008 and 2012. The allocation of ODA still does not reflect the respective importance of these diseases.

Progress in the identification of dengue virus entry/fusion inhibitors

Dengue fever, a reemerging disease, is putting nearly 2.5 billion people at risk worldwide. The number of infections and the geographic extension of dengue fever infection have increased in the past decade. The disease is caused by the dengue virus, a flavivirus that uses mosquitos Aedes sp. as vectors. The disease has several clinical manifestations, from the mild cold-like illness to the more serious hemorrhagic dengue fever and dengue shock syndrome. Currently, there is no approved drug for the treatment of dengue disease or an effective vaccine to fight the virus. Therefore, the search for antivirals against dengue virus is an active field of research. As new possible receptors and biological pathways of the virus biology are discovered, new strategies are being undertaken to identify possible antiviral molecules. Several groups of researchers have targeted the initial step in the infection as a potential approach to interfere with the virus. The viral entry process is mediated by viral proteins and cellular receptor molecules that end up in the endocytosis of the virion, the fusion of both membranes, and the release of viral RNA in the cytoplasm. This review provides an overview of the targets and progress that has been made in the quest for dengue virus entry inhibitors.

Global temperature constraints on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a disease that has undergone significant expansion over the past hundred years. Understanding what factors limit the distribution of transmission can be used to predict current and future limits to further dengue expansion. While not the only factor, temperature plays an important role in defining these limits. Previous attempts to analyse the effect of temperature on the geographic distribution of dengue have not considered its dynamic intra-annual and diurnal change and its cumulative effects on mosquito and virus populations.

METHODS

Here we expand an existing modelling framework with new temperature-based relationships to model an index proportional to the basic reproductive number of the dengue virus. This model framework is combined with high spatial and temporal resolution global temperature data to model the effects of temperature on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission.

RESULTS

Our model predicted areas where temperature is not expected to permit transmission and/or Aedes persistence throughout the year. By reanalysing existing experimental data our analysis indicates that Ae. albopictus, often considered a minor vector of dengue, has comparable rates of virus dissemination to its primary vector, Ae. aegypti, and when the longer lifespan of Ae. albopictus is considered its competence for dengue virus transmission far exceeds that of Ae. aegypti.

CONCLUSIONS

These results can be used to analyse the effects of temperature and other contributing factors on the expansion of dengue or its Aedes vectors. Our finding that Ae. albopictus has a greater capacity for dengue transmission than Ae. aegypti is contrary to current explanations for the comparative rarity of dengue transmission in established Ae. albopictus populations. This suggests that the limited capacity of Ae. albopictus to transmit DENV is more dependent on its ecology than vector competence. The recommendations, which we explicitly outlined here, point to clear targets for entomological investigation.

Long-term and seasonal dynamics of dengue in Iquitos, Peru

Introduction

Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4) that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.

Methods

We studied 10 years (2000–2010) of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.

Findings

Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001–2007) then DENV-4 (2008–2010). After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.

Conclusions

Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

Description of long-term temporal patterns in disease occurrence improves our understanding of pathogen transmission dynamics and facilitates predicting new epidemics. Dengue, the most prevalent mosquito-borne, viral disease of humans, typically varies seasonally and on longer, inter-annual time scales. In most studies of these patterns, however, only a fraction of putative dengue cases are confirmed with laboratory diagnostics. Here we analyzed 10 years of fully confirmed dengue cases reported to a sentinel surveillance system in Iquitos, Peru. We describe the inter and intra-annual patterns of weekly case counts and relate these to climate and local vector control efforts. We show that dengue case counts vary seasonally in Iquitos despite very little variation in key climatic conditions, such as temperature and humidity. Overall, transmission correlated poorly with climate regardless of time lag. In seasons when vector control was conducted early, there was an apparent decline in cases later that season. We speculate that the relationships between climatic conditions and transmission of DENV in Iquitos are complex and non-linear, and that other factors, such as herd immunity, virus diversity, and vector control efforts, play key roles determining the timing and intensity of transmission.

Local and regional spread of chikungunya fever in the Americas

Chikungunya fever (CHIKV), a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, is currently affecting several areas in the Caribbean. The vector is found in the Americas from southern Florida to Brazil, and the Caribbean is a highly connected region in terms of population movements. There is therefore a significant risk for the epidemic to quickly expand to a wide area in the Americas. Here, we describe the spread of CHIKV in the first three areas to report cases and between areas in the region. Local transmission of CHIKV in the Caribbean is very effective, the mean number of cases generated by a human case ranging from two to four. There is a strong spatial signature in the regional epidemic, with the risk of transmission between areas estimated to be inversely proportional to the distance rather than driven by air transportation. So far, this simple distance-based model has successfully predicted observed patterns of spread. The spatial structure allows ranking areas according to their risk of invasion. This characterisation may help national and international agencies to optimise resource allocation for monitoring and control and encourage areas with elevated risks to act.

Knowledge, attitude and practice regarding dengue fever among the healthy population of highland and lowland communities in central Nepal

Background

Dengue fever (DF) is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the world. In this decade it has expanded to new countries and from urban to rural areas. Nepal was regarded DF free until 2004. Since then dengue virus (DENV) has rapidly expanded its range even in mountain regions of Nepal, and major outbreaks occurred in 2006 and 2010. However, no data on the local knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) of DF in Nepal exist although such information is required for prevention and control measures.

Methods

We conducted a community based cross-sectional survey in five districts of central Nepal between September 2011 and February 2012. We collected information on the socio-demographic characteristics of the participants and their knowledge, attitude and practice regarding DF using a structured questionnaire. We then statistically compared highland and lowland communities to identify possible causes of observed differences.

Principal Findings

Out of 589 individuals interviewed, 77% had heard of DF. Only 12% of the sample had good knowledge of DF. Those living in the lowlands were five times more likely to possess good knowledge than highlanders (P<0.001). Despite low knowledge levels, 83% of the people had good attitude and 37% reported good practice. We found a significantly positive correlation among knowledge, attitude and practice (P<0.001). Among the socio-demographic variables, the education level of the participants was an independent predictor of practice level (P<0.05), and education level and interaction between the sex and age group of the participants were independent predictors of attitude level (P<0.05).

Conclusion

Despite the rapid expansion of DENV in Nepal, the knowledge of people about DF was very low. Therefore, massive awareness programmes are urgently required to protect the health of people from DF and to limit its further spread in this country.

Global distribution maps of the leishmaniases

The leishmaniases are vector-borne diseases that have a broad global distribution throughout much of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Despite representing a significant public health burden, our understanding of the global distribution of the leishmaniases remains vague, reliant upon expert opinion and limited to poor spatial resolution. A global assessment of the consensus of evidence for leishmaniasis was performed at a sub-national level by aggregating information from a variety of sources. A database of records of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis occurrence was compiled from published literature, online reports, strain archives, and GenBank accessions. These, with a suite of biologically relevant environmental covariates, were used in a boosted regression tree modelling framework to generate global environmental risk maps for the leishmaniases. These high-resolution evidence-based maps can help direct future surveillance activities, identify areas to target for disease control and inform future burden estimation efforts.

Birth of a normal child after in vitro fertilization treatment followed by dengue fever

PURPOSE

Dengue is a serious public health issue due to its escalating aspect. It is also not yet established whether dengue has any impact on the outcome of assisted reproductive technique for infertility treatments. To our knowledge there are no published data in this subject. Therefore we describe a successful case of birth after in vitro fertilization (IVF) followed by dengue fever.

METHODS

A couple with primary unexplained infertility was submitted to IVF. The patient was submitted to ovulation induction with long protocol. A total of 12 oocytes were retrieved and two embryos were transferred. On the evening of the embryo transfer the patient started with headache and retro-orbital pain, followed by fever and nausea. Two days later she started with vomiting and diarrhea and epistaxis. The tourniquet test was positive. After patient's exams showed hemoconcentration and low platelet count (<50,000/mm(3)) the diagnosis of dengue hemorrhagic fever was confirmed and she was hospitalized and parenterally hydrated. As there was a good response to treatment, the patient was discharged the next day.

RESULTS

A serum βhCG concentration 14 days after oocyte retrieval was positive. A healthy infant was born at the thirty-ninth gestational week by cesarean section.

CONCLUSION

To our knowledge this is the first successful case reported on a patient who had dengue fever immediately after embryo transfer in an IVF treatment cycle. As dengue becomes a public health problem, it is important to bring attention to the subject.

Dengue serosurvey in Sint Eustatius

Four distinct serotypes of dengue viruses (DENV) are the cause of re-emerging dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). Dengue circulation in the Caribbean has gone from none or single serotype to multiple serotypes co-circulating with reports of continuing cycles of progressively more severe disease in the region. Few studies have investigated dengue on Sint Eustatius. Blood samples were collected to determine the prevalence of antibodies against dengue in the Sint Eustatius population. Greater than 90% of the serum samples (184 of 204) were positive for anti-flavivirus antibodies by enzyme linked immunosorbance assay (ELISA). Plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT), specific for dengue viruses, showed that 171 of these 184 flavivirus antibody positive sera had a neutralization titer against one or more DENV serotypes. A majority of the sera (62%) had neutralizing antibody to all four dengue serotypes. Only 26 PRNT positive sera (15%) had monotypic dengue virus neutralizing antibody, most of which (20 of 26) were against DENV2. Evidence of infection with all four serotypes was observed across all age groups except in the youngest age group (10-19 years) which contained only DENV2 positive individuals. In a multiple logistic regression model, only the length of residence on the island was a predictor of a positive dengue PRNT50 result. To our knowledge this is the first dengue serosurveillance study conducted on Sint Eustatius since the 1970s. The lack of antibodies to the DEN1, 3, and 4 in the samples collected from participants under 20 years of age suggests that only DEN2 has circulated on island since the early 1990s. The high prevalence of antibodies against dengue (83.8%) and the observation that the length of time on the island was the strongest predictor of infection suggests dengue is endemic on Sint Eustatius and a public health concern that warrants further investigation.

Strengths and weaknesses of Global Positioning System (GPS) data-loggers and semi-structured interviews for capturing fine-scale human mobility: findings from Iquitos, Peru

Quantifying human mobility has significant consequences for studying physical activity, exposure to pathogens, and generating more realistic infectious disease models. Location-aware technologies such as Global Positioning System (GPS)-enabled devices are used increasingly as a gold standard for mobility research. The main goal of this observational study was to compare and contrast the information obtained through GPS and semi-structured interviews (SSI) to assess issues affecting data quality and, ultimately, our ability to measure fine-scale human mobility. A total of 160 individuals, ages 7 to 74, from Iquitos, Peru, were tracked using GPS data-loggers for 14 days and later interviewed using the SSI about places they visited while tracked. A total of 2,047 and 886 places were reported in the SSI and identified by GPS, respectively. Differences in the concordance between methods occurred by location type, distance threshold (within a given radius to be considered a match) selected, GPS data collection frequency (i.e., 30, 90 or 150 seconds) and number of GPS points near the SSI place considered to define a match. Both methods had perfect concordance identifying each participant's house, followed by 80-100% concordance for identifying schools and lodgings, and 50-80% concordance for residences and commercial and religious locations. As the distance threshold selected increased, the concordance between SSI and raw GPS data increased (beyond 20 meters most locations reached their maximum concordance). Processing raw GPS data using a signal-clustering algorithm decreased overall concordance to 14.3%. The most common causes of discordance as described by a sub-sample (n=101) with whom we followed-up were GPS units being accidentally off (30%), forgetting or purposely not taking the units when leaving home (24.8%), possible barriers to the signal (4.7%) and leaving units home to recharge (4.6%). We provide a quantitative assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of both methods for capturing fine-scale human mobility.

Deconstructing "malaria": West Africa as the next front for dengue fever surveillance and control

Presumptive treatment of febrile illness patients for malaria remains the norm in endemic areas of West Africa, and "malaria" remains the top source of health facility outpatient visits in many West African nations. Many other febrile illnesses, including bacterial, viral, and fungal infections, share a similar symptomatology as malaria and are routinely misdiagnosed as such; yet growing evidence suggests that much of the burden of febrile illness is often not attributable to malaria. Dengue fever is one of several viral diseases with symptoms similar to malaria, and the combination of rapid globalization, the long-standing presence of Aedes mosquitoes, case reports from travelers, and recent seroprevalence surveys all implicate West Africa as an emerging front for dengue surveillance and control. This paper integrates recent vector ecology, public health, and clinical medicine literature about dengue in West Africa across community, regional, and global geographic scales. We present a holistic argument for greater attention to dengue fever surveillance in West Africa and renew the call for improving differential diagnosis of febrile illness patients in the region.

A global compendium of human dengue virus occurrence

A global geographic database of human dengue virus occurrence was produced to generate a global risk map and associated burden estimates(1). Herein we present the database, which comprises occurrence data linked to point or polygon locations, derived from peer-reviewed literature and case reports as well as informal online sources. Entries date from 1960 to 2012. We describe all data collection processes in full, as well as geo-positioning, database management and quality-control procedures. This is the most comprehensive database of confirmed human dengue infection to-date, consisting of 8,309 geo-positioned occurrences in total.

Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus

Infectious disease models play a key role in public health planning. These models rely on accurate estimates of key transmission parameters such as the force of infection (FoI), which is the per-capita risk of a susceptible person being infected. The FoI captures the fundamental dynamics of transmission and is crucial for gauging control efforts, such as identifying vaccination targets. Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne, multiserotype pathogen that currently infects ∼390 million people a year. Existing estimates of the DENV FoI are inaccurate because they rely on the unrealistic assumption that risk is constant over time. Dengue models are thus unreliable for designing vaccine deployment strategies. Here, we present to our knowledge the first time-varying (daily), serotype-specific estimates of DENV FoIs using a spline-based fitting procedure designed to examine a 12-y, longitudinal DENV serological dataset from Iquitos, Peru (11,703 individuals, 38,416 samples, and 22,301 serotype-specific DENV infections from 1999 to 2010). The yearly DENV FoI varied markedly across time and serotypes (0-0.33), as did daily basic reproductive numbers (0.49-4.72). During specific time periods, the FoI fluctuations correlated across serotypes, indicating that different DENV serotypes shared common transmission drivers. The marked variation in transmission intensity that we detected indicates that intervention targets based on one-time estimates of the FoI could underestimate the level of effort needed to prevent disease. Our description of dengue virus transmission dynamics is unprecedented in detail, providing a basis for understanding the persistence of this rapidly emerging pathogen and improving disease prevention programs.

Dengue: challenges for policy makers and vaccine developers

Because of the increasing incidence, geographic expansion and economic burden of dengue transmission, dengue poses major challenges to policy makers. A vaccine against dengue is urgently needed, but vaccine development has been hampered by the lack of an appropriate animal model, poor understanding of correlates of successful human immunity, the fear of immune enhancement, and viral interference in tetravalent combinations. The most suitable target epitopes for vaccines, as well as the role of nonstructural proteins remain elusive. The chimeric yellow fever bone-based live attenuated dengue vaccine is furthest in development, but initial efficacy results have been disappointing. Lessons learnt from this failure will affect the design of future trials, and increase the urgency to identify the best epitope and immune correlates. Dengue vaccine introduction will not be the only strategy to combat dengue, but needs to be "packaged" with novel vector control approaches, with community-based interventions to reduce the number of breeding sites, and reducing the case fatality rate by improving case management.

Assessing the relationship between vector indices and dengue transmission: a systematic review of the evidence

BACKGROUND

Despite doubts about methods used and the association between vector density and dengue transmission, routine sampling of mosquito vector populations is common in dengue-endemic countries worldwide. This study examined the evidence from published studies for the existence of any quantitative relationship between vector indices and dengue cases.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

From a total of 1205 papers identified in database searches following Cochrane and PRISMA Group guidelines, 18 were included for review. Eligibility criteria included 3-month study duration and dengue case confirmation by WHO case definition and/or serology. A range of designs were seen, particularly in spatial sampling and analyses, and all but 3 were classed as weak study designs. Eleven of eighteen studies generated Stegomyia indices from combined larval and pupal data. Adult vector data were reported in only three studies. Of thirteen studies that investigated associations between vector indices and dengue cases, 4 reported positive correlations, 4 found no correlation and 5 reported ambiguous or inconclusive associations. Six out of 7 studies that measured Breteau Indices reported dengue transmission at levels below the currently accepted threshold of 5.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

There was little evidence of quantifiable associations between vector indices and dengue transmission that could reliably be used for outbreak prediction. This review highlighted the need for standardized sampling protocols that adequately consider dengue spatial heterogeneity. Recommendations for more appropriately designed studies include: standardized study design to elucidate the relationship between vector abundance and dengue transmission; adult mosquito sampling should be routine; single values of Breteau or other indices are not reliable universal dengue transmission thresholds; better knowledge of vector ecology is required.

Consultation on dengue vaccines: progress in understanding protection, 26-28 June 2013, Rockville, Maryland

There is an unmet need for a dengue vaccine to further prevent the spread of this disease and contain the growing pandemic. To this end several vaccine companies and academic groups are actively pursuing the development of a tetravalent vaccine to prevent dengue. In the last few years progress has been made in this area, including the first results of a vaccine efficacy trial and improved understanding of the immune responses to the infection. Despite this progress, development of dengue vaccines faces important challenges including the need for a vaccine that induces balanced immune responses against all dengue strains and an incomplete understanding of the mechanism(s) of protection against infection and disease. This is a summary of a Consultation on dengue vaccines held in June 26-28, 2013 by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (part of the US National Institutes of Health) and the Dengue Vaccine Initiative (part of the International Vaccine Institute). The primary goal of this consultation was to review the progress in dengue vaccine development, evaluate the known mechanism of protection of dengue vaccines and discuss avenues for future research.

Defining the geographical range of the Plasmodium knowlesi reservoir

BACKGROUND

The simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can cause severe and fatal disease in humans yet it is rarely included in routine public health reporting systems for malaria and its geographical range is largely unknown. Because malaria caused by P. knowlesi is a truly neglected tropical disease, there are substantial obstacles to defining the geographical extent and risk of this disease. Information is required on the occurrence of human cases in different locations, on which non-human primates host this parasite and on which vectors are able to transmit it to humans. We undertook a systematic review and ranked the existing evidence, at a subnational spatial scale, to investigate the potential geographical range of the parasite reservoir capable of infecting humans.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

After reviewing the published literature we identified potential host and vector species and ranked these based on how informative they are for the presence of an infectious parasite reservoir, based on current evidence. We collated spatial data on parasite occurrence and the ranges of the identified host and vector species. The ranked spatial data allowed us to assign an evidence score to 475 subnational areas in 19 countries and we present the results on a map of the Southeast and South Asia region.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We have ranked subnational areas within the potential disease range according to evidence for presence of a disease risk to humans, providing geographical evidence to support decisions on prevention, management and prophylaxis. This work also highlights the unknown risk status of large parts of the region. Within this unknown category, our map identifies which areas have most evidence for the potential to support an infectious reservoir and are therefore a priority for further investigation. Furthermore we identify geographical areas where further investigation of putative host and vector species would be highly informative for the region-wide assessment.

The 2012 dengue outbreak in Madeira: exploring the origins

In 2012, Madeira reported its first major outbreak of dengue. To identify the origin of the imported dengue virus, we investigated the interconnectivity via air travel between dengue-endemic countries and Madeira, and compared available sequences against GenBank. There were 22,948 air travellers to Madeira in 2012, originating from twenty-nine dengue-endemic countries; 89.6% of these international travellers originated from Venezuela and Brazil. We developed an importation index that takes into account both travel volume and the extent of dengue incidence in the country of origin. Venezuela and Brazil had by far the highest importation indices compared with all other dengue-endemic countries. The importation index for Venezuela was twice as high as that for Brazil. When taking into account seasonality in the months preceding the onset of the Madeira outbreak, this index was even seven times higher for Venezuela than for Brazil during this time. Dengue sequencing shows that the virus responsible for the Madeira outbreak was most closely related to viruses circulating in Venezuela, Brazil and Columbia. Applying the importation index, Venezuela was identified as the most likely origin of importation of dengue virus via travellers to Madeira. We propose that the importation index is a new additional tool that can help to identify and anticipate the most probable country of origin for importation of dengue into currently non-endemic countries.

Discriminable roles of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in establishment of dengue outbreaks in Taiwan

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus were reported to be significant as vectors of dengue fever. In Taiwan, the latter is distributed throughout the island while the former appears only south of the Tropic of Cancer; i.e., 23.5°N. In the past decade, there were five outbreaks with over 1000 cases of dengue fever in Taiwan. Without exception, these outbreaks all occurred in the south where the two Aedes mosquitoes are sympartic. According to the Center for Disease Control of Taiwan, imported cases are thought to provide the seeds of dengue outbreaks every year. Mostly, the number of imported cases is greater in northern island, probably due to a larger population of travelers and imported workers from endemic countries. Looking at the example in 2002, northern, central, and southern parts of Taiwan reported 28, 11, and 13 imported cases, respectively. However, 54, 21, and 5309 total cases were confirmed in the corresponding regions over the entire year, indicating a significant skew of case distributions. A hypothesis is thus inspired that the existence of Ae. aegypti is a prerequisite to initiate a dengue outbreak, while participation of Ae. albopictus expands or maintains the scale until the de novo herd immunity reaches high level.

Recombinant lipidated dengue-4 envelope protein domain III elicits protective immunity

The combination of recombinant protein antigens with an immunostimulator has the potential to greatly increase the immunogenicity of recombinant protein antigens. In the present study, we selected the dengue-4 envelope protein domain III as a dengue vaccine candidate and expressed the protein in lipidated form using an Escherichia coli-based system. The recombinant lipidated dengue-4 envelope protein domain III folded into the proper conformation and competed with the dengue-4 virus for cellular binding sites. Mice immunized with lipidated dengue-4 envelope protein domain III without exogenous adjuvant had higher frequencies of dengue-4 envelope protein domain III-specific B cells secreting antibodies than mice immunized with the nonlipidated form. Importantly, lipidated dengue-4 envelope protein domain III-immunized mice demonstrated a durable neutralizing antibody response and had reduced viremia levels after challenge. The study demonstrates that lipidated dengue-4 envelope protein domain III is immunogenic and may be a potential dengue vaccine candidate. Furthermore, the lipidation strategy can be applied to other serotypes of dengue virus.

Global spread of dengue virus types: mapping the 70 year history

Since the first isolation of dengue virus (DENV) in 1943, four types have been identified. Global phenomena such as urbanization and international travel are key factors in facilitating the spread of dengue. Documenting the type-specific record of DENV spread has important implications for understanding patterns in dengue hyperendemicity and disease severity as well as vaccine design and deployment strategies. Existing studies have examined the spread of DENV types at regional or local scales, or described phylogeographic relationships within a single type. Here we summarize the global distribution of confirmed instances of each DENV type from 1943 to 2013 in a series of global maps. These show the worldwide expansion of the types, the expansion of disease hyperendemicity, and the establishment of an increasingly important infectious disease of global public health significance.

Using global maps to predict the risk of dengue in Europe

This article attempts to quantify the risk to Europe of dengue, following the arrival and spread there of one of dengue's vector species Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus. A global risk map for dengue is presented, based on a global database of the occurrence of this disease, derived from electronic literature searches. Remotely sensed satellite data (from NASA's MODIS series), interpolated meteorological data, predicted distribution maps of dengue's two main vector species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, a digital elevation surface and human population density data were all used as potential predictor variables in a non-linear discriminant analysis modelling framework. One hundred bootstrap models were produced by randomly sub-sampling three different training sets for dengue fever, severe dengue (i.e. dengue haemorrhagic fever, DHF) and all-dengue, and output predictions were averaged to produce a single global risk map for each type of dengue. This paper concentrates on the all-dengue models. Key predictor variables were various thermal data layers, including both day- and night-time Land Surface Temperature, human population density, and a variety of rainfall variables. The relative importance of each may be shown visually using rainbow files and quantitatively using a ranking system. Vegetation Index variables (a common proxy for humidity or saturation deficit) were rarely chosen in the models. The kappa index of agreement indicated an excellent (dengue haemorrhagic fever, Cohen's kappa=0.79 ± 0.028, AUC=0.96 ± 0.007) or good fit of the top ten models in each series to the data (Cohen's kappa=0.73 ± 0.018, AUC=0.94 ± 0.007 for dengue fever and 0.74 ± 0.017, AUC=0.95 ± 0.005 for all dengue). The global risk map predicts widespread dengue risk in SE Asia and India, in Central America and parts of coastal South America, but in relatively few regions of Africa. In many cases these are less extensive predictions than those of other published dengue risk maps and arise because of the key importance of high human population density for the all-dengue risk maps produced here. Three published dengue risk maps are compared using the Fleiss kappa index, and are shown to have only fair agreement globally (Fleiss kappa=0.377). Regionally the maps show greater (but still only moderate) agreement in SE Asia (Fleiss kappa=0.566), fair agreement in the Americas (Fleiss kappa=0.325) and only slight agreement in Africa (Fleiss kappa=0.095). The global dengue risk maps show that very few areas of rural Europe are presently suitable for dengue, but several major cities appear to be at some degree of risk, probably due to a combination of thermal conditions and high human population density, the top two variables in many models. Mahalanobis distance images were produced of Europe and the southern United States showing the distance in environmental rather than geographical space of each site from any site where dengue currently occurs. Parts of Europe are quite similar in Mahalanobis distance terms to parts of the southern United States, where dengue occurred in the recent past and which remain environmentally suitable for it. High standards of living rather than a changed environmental suitability keep dengue out of the USA. The threat of dengue to Europe at present is considered to be low but sufficiently uncertain to warrant monitoring in those areas of greatest predicted environmental suitability, especially in northern Italy and parts of Austria, Slovenia and Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, Albania, Greece, south-eastern France, Germany and Switzerland, and in smaller regions elsewhere.

Modelling adult Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus survival at different temperatures in laboratory and field settings

BACKGROUND

The survival of adult female Aedes mosquitoes is a critical component of their ability to transmit pathogens such as dengue viruses. One of the principal determinants of Aedes survival is temperature, which has been associated with seasonal changes in Aedes populations and limits their geographical distribution. The effects of temperature and other sources of mortality have been studied in the field, often via mark-release-recapture experiments, and under controlled conditions in the laboratory. Survival results differ and reconciling predictions between the two settings has been hindered by variable measurements from different experimental protocols, lack of precision in measuring survival of free-ranging mosquitoes, and uncertainty about the role of age-dependent mortality in the field.

METHODS

Here we apply generalised additive models to data from 351 published adult Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus survival experiments in the laboratory to create survival models for each species across their range of viable temperatures. These models are then adjusted to estimate survival at different temperatures in the field using data from 59 Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus field survivorship experiments. The uncertainty at each stage of the modelling process is propagated through to provide confidence intervals around our predictions.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that adult Ae. albopictus has higher survival than Ae. aegypti in the laboratory and field, however, Ae. aegypti can tolerate a wider range of temperatures. A full breakdown of survival by age and temperature is given for both species. The differences between laboratory and field models also give insight into the relative contributions to mortality from temperature, other environmental factors, and senescence and over what ranges these factors can be important.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the importance of producing site-specific mosquito survival estimates. By including fluctuating temperature regimes, our models provide insight into seasonal patterns of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population dynamics that may be relevant to seasonal changes in dengue virus transmission. Our models can be integrated with Aedes and dengue modelling efforts to guide and evaluate vector control, better map the distribution of disease and produce early warning systems for dengue epidemics.