Condom effectiveness in reducing heterosexual HIV transmission

Sex Practices by HIV Awareness and Engagement in the Continuum of Care Among MSM: A National HIV Behavioral Surveillance Analysis in 21 U.S. Cities

Using National HIV Behavioral Surveillance (NHBS) cross-sectional survey and HIV testing data in 21 U.S. metropolitan areas, we identify sex practices among sexually active men who have sex with men (MSM) associated with: (1) awareness of HIV status, and (2) engagement in the HIV care continuum. Data from 2008, 2011, and 2014 were aggregated, yielding a sample of 5079 sexually active MSM living with HIV (MLWH). Participants were classified into HIV status categories: (1) unaware; (2) aware and out of care; (3) aware and in care without antiretroviral therapy (ART); and (4) aware and on ART. Analyses were conducted examining sex practices (e.g. condomless sex, discordant condomless sex, and number of sex partners) by HIV status. Approximately 30, 5, 10 and 55% of the sample was classified as unaware, aware and out of care, aware and in care without ART, and aware and on ART, respectively. Unaware MLWH were more likely to report condomless anal sex with a last male partner of discordant or unknown HIV status (25.9%) than aware MLWH (18.0%, p value < 0.0001). Unaware MLWH were 3 times as likely to report a female sex partner in the prior 12 months as aware MLWH (17.3 and 5.6%, p-value < 0.0001). When examining trends across the continuum of care, reports of any condomless anal sex with a male partner in the past year (ranging from 65.0 to 70.0%), condomless anal sex with a male partner of discordant or unknown HIV status (ranging from 17.7 to 21.3%), and median number of both male and female sex partners were similar. In conclusion, awareness of HIV and engagement in care was not consistently associated with protective sex practices, highlighting the need for continued prevention efforts.

Prosecution of non-disclosure of HIV status: Potential impact on HIV testing and transmission among HIV-negative men who have sex with men

Background

Non-disclosure criminal prosecutions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) are increasing, even though transmission risk is low when effective antiretroviral treatment (ART) is used. Reduced HIV testing may reduce the impact of HIV “test and treat” strategies. We aimed to quantify the potential impact of non-disclosure prosecutions on HIV testing and transmission among MSM.

Methods

MSM attending an HIV and primary care clinic in Toronto completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview questionnaire. HIV-negative participants were asked concern over non-disclosure prosecution altered their likelihood of HIV testing. Responses were characterized using cross-tabulations and bivariate logistic regressions. Flow charts modelled how changes in HIV testing behaviour impacted HIV transmission rates controlling for ART use, condom use and HIV status disclosure.

Results

150 HIV-negative MSM were recruited September 2010 to June 2012. 7% (9/124) were less or much less likely to be tested for HIV due to concern over future prosecution. Bivariate regression showed no obvious socio/sexual demographic characteristics associated with decreased willingness of HIV testing to due concern about prosecution. Subsequent models estimated that this 7% reduction in testing could cause an 18.5% increase in community HIV transmission, 73% of which was driven by the failure of HIV-positive but undiagnosed MSM to access care and reduce HIV transmission risk by using ART.

Conclusions

Fear of prosecution over HIV non-disclosure was reported to reduce HIV testing willingness by a minority of HIV-negative MSM in Toronto; however, this reduction has the potential to significantly increase HIV transmission at the community level which has important public health implications.

[Awareness and education regarding sexually transmitted diseases among undergraduate students]

Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) are the main global cause of acute illness and death and represent a high socioeconomic cost. Undergraduate students are highly exposed to STDs. The research developed at UNICAMP sought to quantify and generate self-perception of knowledge(or lack thereof) about STDs, as well as evaluate the interest of the students in a course on the topic. The data collection instrument was a questionnaire sent electronically to students about to graduate at the end of 2011 and to freshmen in 2012. The questionnaire was answered by 1,448 seniors and 371 freshmen. Twenty percent of seniors and 38% of freshmen had no sexual activity. Among sexually active students, 26.9% had no regular partner and 28.2% more than two partners per year. The condom was used by 99% of students, but less than 20% used them appropriately. About 80% were unaware that condoms do not provide protection outside the barrier area; they intended to read more about STDs and learnt something about the subject. Nearly half of the students considered that a course should be offered to all undergraduates. These findings will be of use in defining strategies for prevention and the teaching tool could be used in other learning environments.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Testing and Treatment Engagement Initiatives in British Columbia, Canada: 2011-2013

Background

Recognition of the secondary preventive benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has mobilized global efforts to "seek, test, treat, and retain" people living with human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]/AIDS (PLHIV) in HIV care. We aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of a set of HIV testing and treatment engagement interventions initiated in British Columbia, Canada, in 2011-2013.

Methods

Using a previously validated dynamic HIV transmission model, linked individual-level health administrative data for PLHIV, and aggregate-level HIV testing data, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of primary care testing (hospital, emergency department [ED], outpatient), ART initiation, and ART retention initiatives vs a counterfactual scenario that approximated the status quo. HIV incidence, mortality, costs (in 2015$CDN), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated. Analyses were executed over 5- to 25-year time horizons from a government-payer perspective.

Results

ED testing was the best value at $30216 per QALY gained and had the greatest impact on incidence and mortality among PLHIV, while ART initiation provided the greatest QALY gains. The ART retention initiative was not cost-effective. Delivered in combination at the observed scale and sustained throughout the study period, we estimated a 12.8% reduction in cumulative HIV incidence and a 4.7% reduction in deaths among PLHIV at $55258 per QALY gained. Results were most sensitive to uncertainty in the number of undiagnosed PLHIV.

Conclusions

HIV testing and ART initiation interventions were cost-effective, while the ART retention intervention was not. Developing strategies to reengage PLHIV lost to care is a priority moving forward.

A Randomized Clinical Trial of a Brief Internet-based Group Intervention to Reduce Sexual Transmission Risk Behavior Among HIV-Positive Gay and Bisexual Men

Background

HIV disproportionately affects sexual minority men, and developing strategies to reduce transmission risk is a public health priority.

Purpose

The goal was to empirically test a newly developed, Information, Motivation, Behavioral skills (IMB) theoretically derived, online HIV sexual risk reduction intervention (called HINTS) among a sample of sexual minority men living with HIV.

Methods

Participants were 167 men randomized to either the four-session online HINTS intervention or to a time-matched, online control condition. Participants were assessed at baseline and at 6-month follow-up for demographic, medical and psychosocial factors, and sexual risk behavior. Analyses examined group differences in incidence rates of condomless anal sex (CAS) at follow-up with all male sex partners and by partner serostatus, either seroconcordant or serodiscordant for HIV infection.

Results

Men assigned to the HINTS intervention reported decreased CAS with serodiscordant partners, a behavior that confers high risk of HIV transmission, compared to the control group. Men assigned to the HINTS intervention also reported increased CAS with seroconcordant partners, a behavior indicative of serosorting. Although the IMB model did not appear to mediate these intervention effects, some IMB components were associated with behavioral outcomes at 6-month follow-up.

Conclusions

A new group-based sexual risk reduction intervention conducted exclusively online was successful in reducing HIV transmission risk behavior in a sample of gay and bisexual men living with HIV. Future work should consider utilizing this intervention with other groups living with HIV, perhaps in combination with biomedical HIV prevention strategies.

Anal Intercourse Among Female Sex Workers in Côte d'Ivoire: Prevalence, Determinants, and Model-Based Estimates of the Population-Level Impact on HIV Transmission

Current evidence suggests that anal intercourse (AI) during sex work is common in sub-Saharan Africa, but there have been few studies in which the contribution of heterosexual AI to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemics has been investigated. Using a respondent-driven sampling survey of female sex workers (FSWs; n = 466) in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, in 2014, we estimated AI prevalence and frequency. Poisson regressions were used to identify AI determinants. Approximately 20% of FSWs engaged in AI during a normal week (95% confidence interval: 15, 26). Women who performed AI were generally younger, had been selling sex for longer, were born in Côte d'Ivoire, and reported higher sex-work income, more frequent sex in public places, and violence from clients than women not reporting AI. Condom use was lower, condom breakage/slippage more frequent, and use of water-based lubricants was less frequently reported for AI than for vaginal intercourse. Using a dynamic transmission model, we estimated that 22% (95% credible interval: 11, 37% of new HIV infections could have been averted among FSWs during 2000-2015 if AI had been substituted for vaginal intercourse. Despite representing a small fraction of all sex acts, AI is an underestimated source of HIV transmission. Increasing availability and uptake of condoms, lubricants, and pre-exposure prophylaxis for women engaging in AI could help mitigate HIV risk.

HIV-risk reduction intervention for juvenile offenders on probation: The PHAT Life group randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

Juvenile offenders report high rates of sexual risk taking, increasing the possibility of HIV. This 2-arm group randomized controlled trial tested the efficacy of PHAT Life, a sexual risk reduction program, compared with a time-matched health promotion program for youth on probation.

METHOD

Male and female 13- to 17-year-olds (M = 16.08; SD = 1.09) recently arrested and placed on probation at an Evening Reporting Center were eligible for the study. Youth were 66% male, and 90% African American. Teens self-reported their sexual behavior (condom use, number of sexual partners) at baseline and 6 months. Retention was 85%.

RESULTS

Youth were randomized to PHAT Life (n = 163) or a health promotion program (n = 147). Among youth reporting the highest risk at baseline (a composite measure of multiple partners and inconsistent condom use), those who received PHAT Life were over 4 times more likely than the control group to report a lower level of risk (i.e., no sex or one partner plus consistent condom use) by 6 months, OR = 4.28 with 95% CI [1.37, 13.38], SE = 0.58, p = .01. Among sexually active teens who reported sexual debut before 12-years-old, those who received PHAT Life reported significantly fewer sexual partners at 6-months than controls, partial eta squared = .32, p = .002.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings support PHAT Life's efficacy to reduce sexual risk for juvenile offenders on probation. Future research should examine how best to disseminate PHAT Life to ensure that it is self-sustaining within the juvenile justice system. (PsycINFO Database Record

Anti-retroviral Status and HIV Transmission Risk Behaviors are Associated with Age, Time Since Diagnosis, and Psychosocial Factors Among Women Living with HIV/AIDS Enrolling in the WILLOW Intervention at Community-Based Organizations

Safe sexual behaviors and anti-retroviral use help prevent HIV transmission. In this cross-sectional study, we assessed correlates of anti-retroviral (ART) status and transmission risk (a constructed variable) among a convenience sample of n = 1041 HIV-positive women (pre-intervention) enrolled in an evidence-based intervention at four CBOs. Multinomial logistic regression models were used. Younger women and those diagnosed with HIV in the last 5 years more often reported that they had not been prescribed ART. Self-reported non-adherence to ART was less frequently reported among women who were older, had a higher HIV knowledge, and those with attitudes/beliefs supportive of condom use. The highest-risk transmission group (condomless sex with HIV-negative/unknown partner and not prescribed or non-adherent to ART) was associated with younger age, attitudes/beliefs less supportive of condom use, and low self-efficacy discussing condom use. Our findings inform HIV prevention efforts among similar populations of HIV-positive women enrolled in interventions at CBOs.

Factors associated with condom use among men and women living with HIV in Lilongwe, Malawi: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Understanding the influences on condom use among men and women living with HIV is critical to tailoring sexually transmitted infection/HIV prevention efforts.

METHODS

This is a sub-analysis of a cross-sectional survey including 255 women and 220 men who were sexually active, HIV-positive, and attending HIV care visits in Lilongwe, Malawi. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) to evaluate for factors associated with consistent condom use (always using condoms in the past month) and use at last coitus for men and women in separate models.

RESULTS

Among women: 38% and 55% reported consistent condom use and condom use at last coitus, respectively. For women, consistent use and use at last coitus were positively associated with the ability to refuse sex without condoms and shared decision-making compared with making the decision alone regarding condom use, and negatively associated with desire for children in the future. Consistent use also increased with longer antiretroviral therapy (ART) use (≥1 year compared with no ART use). Among men: 51% and 69% reported consistent condom use and condom use at last coitus, respectively. For men, the ability to refuse sex without condoms was associated with consistent use and use at last coitus, and believing that condoms should be used with other contraception was associated with consistent use.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate ongoing low condom utilisation among HIV-positive individuals, and highlight that ART and contraceptive use do not deter condom use. Efforts to increase condom utilisation must recognise individual-level factors that influence use and should focus on relationship dynamics and promotion of empowerment and self-efficacy.

Risk Factors for Incidence of Sexually Transmitted Infections Among Women in a Human Immunodeficiency Virus Chemoprevention Trial: VOICE (MTN-003)

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa, there are limited data on the incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among women, largely because routine screening for asymptomatic infection is not performed. We conducted a secondary analysis to measure STI incidence rates and determine risk factors for new STI acquisition among women enrolled in the VOICE trial.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 4843 women screened for chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis, and trichomonas infection at baseline, annually, at interim visits when clinically indicated and at their study termination visit. Risk reduction counseling and condoms were provided throughout the trial.

RESULTS

Twenty percent of evaluable participants had one or more curable STIs at baseline. Over 5660 person-years at risk (PYAR) of observation, incidence rates were 13.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12.7-14.8) PYAR for chlamydia, 3.5% (95% CI, 3.0-4.1) PYAR gonorrhea, 0.1% (95% CI, 0.6-1.1) PYAR syphilis, and 6.6% (95% CI, 5.8-7.2) PYAR trichomoniasis. South African sites had the highest incidence of chlamydia. The Uganda site had the highest incidence of gonorrhoea and syphilis, and Zimbabwe the lowest incidence overall. The majority of these cases were diagnosed at a routine scheduled testing visit. In multivariate analysis, positive baseline STI, younger than 25 years, being unmarried, and some alcohol consumption were associated with acquiring a new STI.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed high rates of STIs during follow up among women in the VOICE study. Women living in human immunodeficiency virus endemic countries should be screened for common STIs.

The association between client type and condom use with steady and unsteady partners among persons seeking HIV testing and counseling services in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Approximately 70% of global HIV infections are located in sub-Saharan Africa, and the prevalence of HIV infection in Kenya remains high.

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the association between client type (general population, commercial sex worker [CSW], or truck driver) and consistent condom use with steady and unsteady partners.

METHODS

Self-reported data included in the Kenyan Ministry of Health 2010-2011 National HIV Testing and Counseling Registry were used (n=11,567). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using logistic regression.

RESULTS

After adjustment, CSWs and truck drivers had decreased odds of consistent condom use with steady partners compared to the general population (OR=0.52; 95% CI: 0.41-0.67 and OR=0.29; 95% CI: 0.13-0.63; respectively). CSWs had 1.95 times the odds of consistent condom use (95% CI: 1.58-2.42) and truck drivers had 0.64 times the odds of consistent condom use with unsteady partners (95% CI: 0.45-0.91) compared to the general population.

CONCLUSION

Although CSWs consistently use condoms with their unsteady partners, truck drivers do not consistently use condoms with any partners. Future HIV prevention efforts should target CSWs and truck drivers to increase consistent condom use with all partners. Such efforts may decrease the prevalence of HIV in Kenya.

HIV among Female Sex Workers in Five Cities in Burkina Faso: A Cross-Sectional Baseline Survey to Inform HIV/AIDS Programs

Background

Female sex workers (FSWs) are considered a vulnerable population for HIV infection and a priority for HIV/AIDS response programs. This study aimed to determine HIV prevalence among FSWs in five cities in Burkina Faso.

Methods

FSWs aged 18 and older were recruited using respondent driven sampling (RDS) in five cities (Ouagadougou, Bobo-Dioulasso, Koudougou, Ouahigouya, and Tenkodogo) in Burkina Faso from 2013 to 2014. HIV testing was performed using the HIV testing national algorithm. We conducted bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess correlates of HIV in all cities combined (not RDS-adjusted).

Results

Among Ouagadougou, Koudougou, and Ouahigouya FSWs, RDS-adjusted HIV prevalence was 13.5% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 9.6-18.7), 13.3% (95% CI: 7.6-22.4), and 13.0% (95% CI: 7.6-21.3), respectively, compared to 30.1% (95% CI: 25.5-35.1) among Bobo-Dioulasso FSWs. Factors associated with HIV infection were age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 7.84 95% CI: 3.78-16.20), being married or cohabitating (aOR = 2.43, 95% CI: 1.31-4.49), and history of pregnancy (aOR = 5.24, 95% CI: 1.44-18.97).

Conclusion

These results highlight the need to strengthen HIV prevention among FSWs, through behavior change strategies, and improve access to sexual and reproductive health services.

Contribution of Anal Sex to HIV Prevalence Among Heterosexuals: A Modeling Analysis

Anal intercourse is reported by many heterosexuals, and evidence suggests that its practice may be increasing. We estimated the proportion of the HIV burden attributable to anal sex in 2015 among heterosexual women and men in the United States. The HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics model was developed using parameter inputs from the literature for the sexually active U.S. population aged 13-64. The model uses differential equations to represent the progression of the population between compartments defined by HIV disease status and continuum-of-care stages from 2007 to 2015. For heterosexual women of all ages (who do not inject drugs), almost 28% of infections were associated with anal sex, whereas for women aged 18-34, nearly 40% of HIV infections were associated with anal sex. For heterosexual men, 20% of HIV infections were associated with insertive anal sex with women. Sensitivity analyses showed that varying any of 63 inputs by ±20% resulted in no more than a 13% change in the projected number of heterosexual infections in 2015, including those attributed to anal sex. Despite uncertainties in model inputs, a substantial portion of the HIV burden among heterosexuals appears to be attributable to anal sex. Providing information about the relative risk of anal sex compared with vaginal sex may help reduce HIV incidence in heterosexuals.

Effectiveness of community-based condom distribution interventions to prevent HIV in the United States: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite significant public health implications, the extent to which community-based condom distribution interventions (CDI) prevent HIV infection in the United States is not well understood.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed research evidence applying Cochrane Collaboration methods. We used a comprehensive search strategy to search multiple bibliographic databases for relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs published from 1986-2017. We focused on CDI that made condoms widely available or accessible in community settings. Eligible outcomes were HIV infection (primary), sexually transmitted infections, condom use, and multiple sexual partnership. Two reviewers independently screened citations to assess their eligibility, extracted study data, and assessed risk of bias. We calculated risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and pooled them using random-effects models. We assessed evidence quality using GRADE.

RESULTS

We reviewed 5,110 unique records. Nine studies (including one RCT) met eligibility criteria. Studies were conducted in 10 US states between 1989 and 2011. All studies were at high risk of bias. Interventions were categorized into three groups: "Ongoing" (unlimited access to condoms), "Ongoing-plus" (unlimited access to condoms, with co-interventions), and "Coupon-based" (coupons redeemed for condoms). No studies reported incident HIV. Ongoing CDI (four non-RCTs) modestly reduced condomless sex (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.99). Ongoing-plus CDI (two non-RCTs) significantly reduced multiple sexual partnership (RR 0.37, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.87). Of two coupon-based studies, one (non-RCT) showed reduction in condomless sex in female participants (Odds Ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.96), while the other one (RCT) showed no effect on STI incidence (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.31). Evidence quality was "very low" for all outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

CDI may reduce some risky sexual behaviors, but the evidence for any reduction is limited and of low-quality. Lack of biological outcomes precludes assessing the link between CDI and HIV incidence.

Providing a conceptual framework for HIV prevention cascades and assessing feasibility of empirical measurement with data from east Zimbabwe: a case study

Background

The HIV treatment cascade illustrates the steps required for successful treatment and is a powerful advocacy and monitoring tool. Similar cascades for people susceptible to infection could improve HIV prevention programming. We aim to show the feasibility of using cascade models to monitor prevention programmes.

Methods

Conceptual prevention cascades are described taking intervention-centric and client-centric perspectives to look at supply, demand, and efficacy of interventions. Data from two rounds of a population-based study in east Zimbabwe are used to derive the values of steps for cascades for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) and for partner reduction or condom use driven by HIV testing and counselling (HTC).

Findings

In 2009 to 2011 the availability of circumcision services was negligible, but by 2012 to 2013 about a third of the population had access. However, where it was available only 12% of eligible men sought to be circumcised leading to an increase in circumcision prevalence from 3·1% to 6·9%. Of uninfected men, 85·3% did not perceive themselves to be at risk of acquiring HIV. The proportions of men and women tested for HIV increased from 27·5% to 56·6% and from 61·1% to 79·6%, respectively, with 30·4% of men tested self-reporting reduced sexual partner numbers and 12·8% reporting increased condom use.

Interpretation

Prevention cascades can be populated to inform HIV prevention programmes. In eastern Zimbabwe programmes need to provide greater access to circumcision services and the design and implementation of associated demand creation activities. Whereas, HTC services need to consider how to increase reductions in partner numbers or increased condom use or should not be considered as contributing to prevention services for the HIV-negative adults.

Funding

Wellcome Trust and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Sexual Behavior and Vaginal Practices During Pregnancy and Postpartum: Implications for HIV Prevention Strategies

BACKGROUND

Understanding sexual behaviors and vaginal practices of pregnant and breastfeeding women in sub-Saharan Africa is critical to inform HIV prevention strategies during these periods.

METHODS

HIV-uninfected women presenting for antenatal care in western Kenya were enrolled and followed through 36 weeks postpartum. Sexual behavior and vaginal practices were ascertained by structured questionnaires. Logistic regression was used to assess correlates of unprotected sex, vaginal washing, and vaginal drying.

RESULTS

Among 1252 women enrolled, 78.4% were married (of whom 15.1% were in polygamous unions), 1.4% had a known HIV-infected partner, and 33.6% had a partner of unknown HIV status. At enrollment, 58.5% reported sex in the past month (94.3% unprotected) and 4.5% reported forced sex. Odds of unprotected sex at enrollment was >11-fold higher in married than in unmarried women (P < 0.001) and lower among women who reported partners of unknown HIV status or HIV-infected compared with HIV-uninfected partners. Median time to postpartum resumption of sex was 7 weeks (interquartile range 4-12). Prevalence of unprotected sex in the past week increased from 6.6% to 60.0% between 2 and 36 weeks postpartum (P < 0.001). Vaginal washing was reported by 60.1% of women at enrollment and prevalence remained stable postpartum; vaginal drying was reported by 17.9% at enrollment and decreased to 6.1% at 36 weeks postpartum (P < 0.001). Vaginal washing and drying were associated with forced sex.

CONCLUSIONS

High rates of unknown partner HIV status, polygamy, and less frequent condom use among pregnant/postpartum women underscore the need for female-controlled HIV prevention interventions. Vaginal washing and drying may present challenges to microbicide use.

Optimal costs of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men

Introduction

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV due to their increased risk of infection. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly effictive HIV-prevention strategy for MSM. Despite evidence of its effectiveness, PrEP uptake in the United States has been slow, in part due to its cost. As jurisdictions and health organizations begin to think about PrEP scale-up, the high cost to society needs to be understood.

Methods

We modified a previously-described decision-analysis model to estimate the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, over a 1-year duration of PrEP intervention and lifetime time horizon. Using updated parameter estimates, we calculated: 1) the cost per QALY gained, stratified over 4 strata of PrEP cost (a function of both drug cost and provider costs); and 2) PrEP drug cost per year required to fall at or under 4 cost per QALY gained thresholds.

Results

When PrEP drug costs were reduced by 60% (with no sexual disinhibition) to 80% (assuming 25% sexual disinhibition), PrEP was cost-effective (at <$100,000 per QALY averted) in all scenarios of base-case or better adherence, as long as the background HIV prevalence was greater than 10%. For PrEP to be cost saving at base-case adherence/efficacy levels and at a background prevalence of 20%, drug cost would need to be reduced to $8,021 per year with no disinhibition, and to $2,548 with disinhibition.

Conclusion

Results from our analysis suggest that PrEP drug costs need to be reduced in order to be cost-effective across a range of background HIV prevalence. Moreover, our results provide guidance on the pricing of generic emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, in order to provide those at high risk for HIV an affordable prevention option without financial burden on individuals or jurisdictions scaling-up coverage.

The case for investing in the male condom

When used correctly and consistently, the male condom offers triple protection from unintended pregnancy and the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). However, with health funding levels stagnant or falling, it is important to understand the cost and health impact associated with prevention technologies. This study is one of the first to attempt to quantify the cost and combined health impact of condom use, as a means to prevent unwanted pregnancy and to prevent transmission of STIs including HIV. This paper describes the analysis to make the case for investment in the male condom, including the cost, impact and cost-effectiveness by three scenarios (low in which 2015 condom use levels are maintained; medium in which condom use trends are used to predict condom use from 2016–2030; and high in which condom use is scaled up, as part of a package of contraceptives, to meet all unmet need for family planning by 2030 and to 90% for HIV and STI prevention by 2016) for 81 countries from 2015–2030. An annual gap between current and desired use of 10.9 billion condoms was identified (4.6 billion for family planning and 6.3 billion for HIV and STIs). Under a high scenario that completely reduces that gap between current and desired use of 10.9 billion condoms, we found that by 2030 countries could avert 240 million DALYs. The additional cost in the 81 countries through 2030 under the medium scenario is $1.9 billion, and $27.5 billion under the high scenario. Through 2030, the cost-effectiveness ratios are $304 per DALY averted for the medium and $115 per DALY averted for the high scenario. Under the three scenarios described above, our analysis demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of the male condom in preventing unintended pregnancy and HIV and STI new infections. Policy makers should increase budgets for condom programming to increase the health return on investment of scarce resources.

The potential impact and cost of focusing HIV prevention on young women and men: A modeling analysis in western Kenya

OBJECTIVE

We compared the impact and costs of HIV prevention strategies focusing on youth (15-24 year-old persons) versus on adults (15+ year-old persons), in a high-HIV burden context of a large generalized epidemic.

DESIGN

Compartmental age-structured mathematical model of HIV transmission in Nyanza, Kenya.

INTERVENTIONS

The interventions focused on youth were high coverage HIV testing (80% of youth), treatment at diagnosis (TasP, i.e., immediate start of antiretroviral therapy [ART]) and 10% increased condom usage for HIV-positive diagnosed youth, male circumcision for HIV-negative young men, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for high-risk HIV-negative females (ages 20-24 years), and cash transfer for in-school HIV-negative girls (ages 15-19 years). Permutations of these were compared to adult-focused HIV testing coverage with condoms and TasP.

RESULTS

The youth-focused strategy with ART treatment at diagnosis and condom use without adding interventions for HIV-negative youth performed better than the adult-focused strategy with adult testing reaching 50-60% coverage and TasP/condoms. Over the long term, the youth-focused strategy approached the performance of 70% adult testing and TasP/condoms. When high coverage male circumcision also is added to the youth-focused strategy, the combined intervention outperformed the adult-focused strategy with 70% testing, for at least 35 years by averting 94,000 more infections, averting 5.0 million more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and saving US$46.0 million over this period. The addition of prevention interventions beyond circumcision to the youth-focused strategy would be more beneficial if HIV care costs are high, or when program delivery costs are relatively high for programs encompassing HIV testing coverage exceeding 70%, TasP and condoms to HIV-infected adults compared to combination prevention programs among youth.

CONCLUSION

For at least the next three decades, focusing in high burden settings on high coverage HIV testing, ART treatment upon diagnosis, condoms and male circumcision among youth may outperform adult-focused ART treatment upon diagnosis programs, unless the adult testing coverage in these programs reaches very high levels (>70% of all adults reached) at similar program costs. Our results indicate the potential importance of age-targeting for HIV prevention in the current era of 'test and start, ending AIDS' goals to ameliorate the HIV epidemic globally.

Understanding the Psychosocial Correlates of the Intention to Use Condoms among Young Men in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

South Africa leads the world with the number of people infected with HIV. Even with all attempts that have been made to curb HIV, it is still evident that new infections are on the rise. Condom use remains one of the best tools against this challenge yet a small number of sexually active men use them. This study investigates the psychosocial correlates of the intention to use condoms among young men in KwaZulu-Natal province. Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour as a framework, hierarchical linear regression models were used to determine the unique contribution of the study measures in explaining the overall variance of intention to consistently use condoms. Subjective norms and perceived behavioural control towards consistent condom use explained 46% of the variance in the intention to use a condom, suggesting that health behaviour interventions should focus on targeting the normative beliefs as well as control beliefs of the target population. Furthermore, subjective norms and intentions towards reducing alcohol and marijuana use explained an additional 7% to the final model in intentions to condom use, implying that substance use and condom usage may influence each other. No significant contributions were found for beliefs underlying cultural aspects of responsible manhood.

Predicting the Intention to Use Condoms and Actual Condom Use Behaviour: A Three-Wave Longitudinal Study in Ghana

BACKGROUND

Growing cross-sectional research shows that the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) is robust in predicting intentions to use condoms and condom use behaviour. Yet, little is known about the TPB's utility in explaining intentions to use condoms and condom use behaviour over time.

METHODS

This study used a longitudinal design and latent variable structural equation modelling to test the longitudinal relationships postulated by the TPB. School-going youths in Ghana provided data on attitudes, subjective norms, perceived control, intentions, and behaviour regarding condom use at three time points, spaced approximately three months apart.

RESULTS

As predicted by the TPB, the results showed that attitudes were significantly positively associated with intentions to use condoms over time. Contrary to the TPB, subjective norms were not significantly associated with intentions to use condoms over time. Perceived control did not predict intentions to use condoms over time. Moreover, intentions to use condoms were not significantly associated with self-reported condom use over time.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that school-going youths in Ghana may benefit from sex education programmes that focus on within-subject attitude formation and activation. The theoretical and methodological implications of these results are discussed.

Social and Proximate Determinants of the Frequency of Condom Use Among African, Caribbean, and Other Black People in a Canadian City: Results from the BLACCH Study

African, Caribbean, and other Black (ACB) people are a priority group for HIV prevention in Canada, but little is known about condom use in this population. This exploratory community-based research project addresses this gap in knowledge. 125 sexually active ACB people completed a questionnaire covering condom use and social determinants of health. The data were analyzed using ordinal logistic regression and mediation analyses. 20.5 % of sexually active ACB adults used condoms consistently. Male gender, wealth, unstable immigration classes, and unsecure employment statuses were independently associated with more frequent condom use. Proximate determinants mediating these relationships included: not having a cohabiting regular partner, not disliking condoms, and having a history of unwanted sex. The proximate determinants mediated 85.7-97.6 % of the effects of the social determinants. These results link social context and proximate factors with condom use. They can be used to design evidence-informed interventions for ACB people.

Early infant male circumcision: Systematic review, risk-benefit analysis, and progress in policy

AIM

To determine whether recent evidence-based United States policies on male circumcision (MC) apply to comparable Anglophone countries, Australia and New Zealand.

METHODS

Articles in 2005 through 2015 were retrieved from PubMed using the keyword "circumcision" together with 36 relevant subtopics. A further PubMed search was performed for articles published in 2016. Searches of the EMBASE and Cochrane databases did not yield additional citable articles. Articles were assessed for quality and those rated 2+ and above according to the Scottish Intercollegiate Grading System were studied further. The most relevant and representative of the topic were included. Bibliographies were examined to retrieve further key references. Randomized controlled trials, recent high quality systematic reviews or meta-analyses (level 1++ or 1+ evidence) were prioritized for inclusion. A risk-benefit analysis of articles rated for quality was performed. For efficiency and reliability, recent randomized controlled trials, meta-analyses, high quality systematic reviews and large well-designed studies were used if available. Internet searches were conducted for other relevant information, including policies and Australian data on claims under Medicare for MC.

RESULTS

Evidence-based policy statements by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) support infant and later age male circumcision (MC) as a desirable public health measure. Our systematic review of relevant literature over the past decade yielded 140 journal articles that met our inclusion criteria. Together, these showed that early infant MC confers immediate and lifelong benefits by protecting against urinary tract infections having potential adverse long-term renal effects, phimosis that causes difficult and painful erections and "ballooning" during urination, inflammatory skin conditions, inferior penile hygiene, candidiasis, various sexually transmissible infections in both sexes, genital ulcers, and penile, prostate and cervical cancer. Our risk-benefit analysis showed that benefits exceeded procedural risks, which are predominantly minor, by up to 200 to 1. We estimated that more than 1 in 2 uncircumcised males will experience an adverse foreskin-related medical condition over their lifetime. Wide-ranging evidence from surveys, physiological measurements, and the anatomical location of penile sensory receptors responsible for sexual sensation strongly and consistently suggested that MC has no detrimental effect on sexual function, sensitivity or pleasure. United States studies showed that early infant MC is cost saving. The evidence supporting early infant MC has further strengthened since the positive AAP and CDC reviews.

CONCLUSION

Affirmative MC policies are needed in Australia and New Zealand. Routine provision of accurate, unbiased education, and access in public hospitals, will maximize health and financial benefits.

Individual HIV Risk versus Population Impact of Risk Compensation after HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Initiation among Men Who Have Sex with Men

OBJECTIVES

Risk compensation (RC) could reduce or offset the biological prevention benefits of HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among those at substantial risk of infection, including men who have sex with men (MSM). We investigated the potential extent and causal mechanisms through which RC could impact HIV transmission at the population and individual levels.

METHODS

Using a stochastic network-based mathematical model of HIV transmission dynamics among MSM in the United States, we simulated RC as a reduction in the probability of condom use after initiating PrEP, with heterogeneity by PrEP adherence profiles and partnership type in which RC occurred. Outcomes were changes to population-level HIV incidence and individual-level acquisition risk.

RESULTS

When RC was limited to MSM highly/moderately adherent to PrEP, 100% RC (full replacement of condoms) resulted in a 2% relative decline in incidence compared to no RC, but an 8% relative increase in infection risk for MSM on PrEP. This resulted from confounding by indication: RC increased the number of MSM indicated for PrEP as a function of more condomless anal intercourse among men otherwise not indicated for PrEP; this led to an increased PrEP uptake and subsequent decline in incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

RC is unlikely to decrease the prevention impact of PrEP, and in some cases RC may be counterintuitively beneficial at the population level. This depended on PrEP uptake scaling with behavioral indications. Due to the increased acquisition risk associated with RC, however, clinicians should continue to support PrEP as a supplement rather than replacement of condoms.

Sexual Behaviors and HIV Status: A Population-Based Study Among Older Adults in Rural South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To identify the unmet needs for HIV prevention among older adults in rural South Africa.

METHODS

We analyzed data from a population-based sample of 5059 men and women aged 40 years and older from the study Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of INDEPTH Communities (HAALSI), which was carried out in the Agincourt health and sociodemographic surveillance system in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa. We estimated the prevalence of HIV (laboratory-confirmed and self-reported) and key sexual behaviors by age and sex. We compared sexual behavior profiles across HIV status categories with and without age-sex standardization.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence was very high among HAALSI participants (23%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 21 to 24), with no sex differences. Recent sexual activity was common (56%, 95% CI: 55 to 58) across all HIV status categories. Condom use was low among HIV-negative adults (15%, 95% CI: 14 to 17), higher among HIV-positive adults who were unaware of their HIV status (27%, 95% CI: 22 to 33), and dramatically higher among HIV-positive adults who were aware of their status (75%, 95% CI: 70 to 80). Casual sex and multiple partnerships were reported at moderate levels, with slightly higher estimates among HIV-positive compared to HIV-negative adults. Differences by HIV status remained after age-sex standardization.

CONCLUSIONS

Older HIV-positive adults in an HIV hyperendemic community of rural South Africa report sexual behaviors consistent with high HIV transmission risk. Older HIV-negative adults report sexual behaviors consistent with high HIV acquisition risk. Prevention initiatives tailored to the particular prevention needs of older adults are urgently needed to reduce HIV risk in this and similar communities in sub-Saharan Africa.

The prevalence and determinants of HIV seroconversion among booked ante natal clients in the University of Uyo teaching hospital, Uyo Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria

INTRODUCTION

The Prevention of Mother to Child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV, an important intervention in the fight against HIV/AIDS can only be of benefit if the HIV status of the mother is known. Unfortunately, some women receive HIV counseling and testing (HCT) during the window period or prior to new infection in pregnancy and therefore, miss-out on the gains of PMTCT. A repeat HIV test would identify this later seroconversion and ensure early intervention. This study aimed at determining the prevalence of HIV seroconversion during pregnancy and assessing the factors associated with HIV seroconversion in clients who attended ante-natal clinic (ANC) in University of Uyo Teaching Hospital, Uyo.

METHODS

A descriptive cross-sectional design was used to study 502 HIV negative clients who consecutively presented for ANC in the University of Uyo Teaching Hospital Uyo over a 3 months period (July -September 2013).

RESULTS

Fifteen (3%) of the 502 women who were HIV negative at booking visit tested positive (seroconverted) to HIV. Determinants of seroconversion at multivariate level were age bracket of 25-29 years (OR: 3.20; 95%CI: 2.39-4.29) clients' partners who had sexually transmitted infections, as evidenced by penile discharge (OR: 0.09; 95%CI: 0.01-0.45); Clients in polygamous setting (OR: 3.98; CI: 1.64-9.65); those taking alcohol (OR: 0.12; CI: 0.20-0.80) and those with partners taking recreational drugs (OR: 0.05, 95%CI: 0.002-0.995).

CONCLUSION

The study revealed a high seroconversion rate. Re-screening of pregnant women after the booking HCT is a very cost effective and beneficial strategy for the elimination of mother to child transmission of HIV.

HIV and ZIKA in Pregnancy: Parallel Stories and New Challenges

On February 1, 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Zika virus outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Because Zika virus is a relatively new infection with several transmission routes that include mosquito bites, sexual and possibly blood-related, we present the case for a parallel between the Zika epidemic and the AIDS epidemic for issues that relate particularly to pregnancy and epidemic response. We will discuss the many similarities between both epidemics while acknowledging that the viruses are different and the pathophysiology and disease manifestation are also different. What can we learn of the three decades of awareness campaigns, community involvement, clinical, behavior and prevention research, activism and policy-making related to HIV/AIDS? How can the lessons and experience of dealing with the HIV epidemic can help us deal with the ongoing Zika epidemic? Is there a roadmap that we can follow? Our position is that we can and we should. Parallels between the Zika and HIV/AIDS epidemics particularly in relation to pregnancy can be established. Lessons and successes from the HIV/AIDS epidemic control efforts can guide us towards comprehensive approaches to improve the health of women and infants at risk for Zika.

Condom Use Efficacy and Sexual Communication Skills Among African American College Women

Despite condom use being the most protective measure against the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), little is known about the intermediary relationships between condom negotiation, assertive sexual communication, and condom use efficacy. The purpose of the current study was to examine the relationships between these constructs within the context of an HIV prevention intervention. We examined two samples of African American college women participating in two HIV prevention interventions, one of which was based on social learning theory ( N = 214). Data collected at intervention posttest and 3-month follow-up were analyzed. Findings revealed that condom use efficacy at posttest fully mediated the relationship between intervention effect and assertive sexual communication at 3-month follow-up. In addition, condom use efficacy at posttest fully mediated the relationship between intervention effect and condom negotiation at 3-month follow-up. Implications of the importance of experiential learning, in combination with behavior observance, on the maintenance of condom protective behaviors are discussed. Findings have the potential to inform clinic and community-based HIV prevention interventions conducted among African American women.

Fitting HIV Prevalence 1981 Onwards for Three Indian States Using the Goals Model and the Estimation and Projection Package

Models are designed to provide evidence for strategic program planning by examining the impact of different interventions on projected HIV incidence. We employed the Goals Model to fit the HIV epidemic curves in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu states of India where HIV epidemic is considered to have matured and in a declining phase. Input data in the Goals Model consisted of demographic, epidemiological, transmission-related and risk group wise behavioral parameters. The HIV prevalence curves generated in the Goals Model for each risk group in the three states were compared with the epidemic curves generated by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) that the national program is routinely using. In all the three states, the HIV prevalence trends for high-risk populations simulated by the Goals Model matched well with those derived using state-level HIV surveillance data in the EPP. However, trends for the low- and medium-risk populations differed between the two models. This highlights the need to generate more representative and robust data in these sub-populations and consider some structural changes in the modeling equation and parameters in the Goals Model to effectively use it to assess the impact of future strategies of HIV control in various sub-populations in India at the sub-national level.

Comparing the effectiveness of a crowdsourced video and a social marketing video in promoting condom use among Chinese men who have sex with men: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Crowdsourcing has been used to spur innovation and increase community engagement in public health programmes. Crowdsourcing is the process of giving individual tasks to a large group, often involving open contests and enabled through multisectoral partnerships. Here we describe one crowdsourced video intervention in which a video promoting condom use is produced through an open contest. The aim of this study is to determine whether a crowdsourced intervention is as effective as a social marketing intervention in promoting condom use among high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender male-to-female (TG) in China.

METHOD

We evaluate videos developed by crowdsourcing and social marketing. The crowdsourcing contest involved an open call for videos. Entries were judged on capacity to promote condom use, to be shareable or 'go viral' and to give value to the individual. 1170 participants will be recruited for the randomised controlled trial. Participants need to be MSM age 16 and over who have had condomless anal sex in the last 3 months. Recruitment will be through an online banner ad on a popular MSM web page and other social media platforms. After completing an initial survey, participants will be randomly assigned to view either the social marketing video or the crowdsourcing video. Follow-up surveys will be completed at 3 weeks and 3 months after initial intervention to evaluate condomless sex and related secondary outcomes. Secondary outcomes include condom social norms, condom negotiation, condom self-efficacy, HIV/syphilis testing, frequency of sex acts and incremental cost.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Approval was obtained from the ethical review boards of the Guangdong Provincial Center for Skin Diseases and STI Control, UNC and UCSF. The results of this trial will be made available through publication in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02516930.

Optimizing HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis implementation among men who have sex with men in a large urban centre: a dynamic modelling study

INTRODUCTION

Once-daily tenofovir/emtricitabine-based pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can reduce HIV acquisition in men who have sex with men (MSM), by 44% in the iPrEx trial, and reaching up to 99% with high adherence. We examined the potential population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of different PrEP implementation strategies.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic, stochastic compartmental model of HIV transmission among the estimated 57,400 MSM in Toronto, Canada. Parameterization was performed using local epidemiologic data. Strategies examined included (1) uniform PrEP delivery versus targeting the highest risk decile of MSM (with varying coverage proportions); (2) increasing PrEP efficacy as a surrogate of adherence (44% to 99%); and (3) varying HIV test frequency (once monthly to once yearly). Outcomes included HIV infections averted and the incremental cost ($CAD) per incremental quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained over 20 years.

RESULTS

Use of PrEP among all HIV-uninfected MSM at 25, 50, 75 and 100% coverage prevented 1970, 3427, 4317, and 4581 infections, respectively, with cost/QALY increasing from $500,000 to $800,000 CAD. Targeted PrEP for the highest risk MSM at 25, 50, 75 and 100% coverage prevented 1166, 2154, 2816, and 3012 infections, respectively, with cost/QALY ranging from $35,000 to $70,000 CAD. Maximizing PrEP efficacy, in a scenario of 25% coverage of high-risk MSM with PrEP, prevented 1540 infections with a cost/QALY of $15,000 CAD. HIV testing alone (Q3 months) averted 898 of infections with a cost savings of $4,000 CAD per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

The optimal implementation strategy for PrEP over the next 20 years at this urban centre is to target high-risk MSM and to maximize efficacy by supporting PrEP adherence. A large health benefit of PrEP implementation could come from engaging undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals into care.

Sexual transmission-risk behaviour among HIV-positive persons: a multisite study using social action theory

AIM

Sexual risk behaviour was explored and described using Social Action Theory.

BACKGROUND

The sexual transmission of HIV is complex and multi-factorial. Social Action Theory provides a framework for viewing self-regulation of modifiable behaviour such as condom use. Condom use is viewed within the context of social interaction and interdependence.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

METHODS

Self-report questionnaire administered to adults living with HIV/AIDS, recruited from clinics, service organizations and by active outreach, between 2010 - 2011.

FINDINGS

Having multiple sex partners with inconsistent condom use during a 3-month recall period was associated with being male, younger age, having more years of education,substance use frequency and men having sex with men being a mode of acquiring HIV. In addition, lower self-efficacy for condom use scores were associated with having multiple sex partners and inconsistent condom use.

CONCLUSION

Social Action Theory provided a framework for organizing data from an international sample of seropositive persons. Interventions for sexually active, younger, HIV positive men who have sex with men, that strengthen perceived efficacy for condom use, and reduce the frequency of substance use, may contribute to reducing HIV-transmission risk.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.

METHODS

For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.

FINDINGS

Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.

INTERPRETATION

Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.

Can the Heterosexual HIV Epidemic be Eliminated in South Africa Using Combination Prevention? A Modeling Analysis

Little is known about how combining efficacious interventions for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention could lead to HIV elimination. We used an agent-based simulation model, the HIV calibrated dynamic model, to assess the potential for HIV elimination in South Africa. We examined several scenarios (from continuation of the current status quo to perfect achievement of targets) with differing combinations of male condom use, adult male circumcision, HIV testing, and early antiretroviral therapy (ART). We varied numerous parameters, including the proportion of adult males circumcised, the frequency of condom use during sex acts, acceptance of HIV testing, linkage to health care, criteria for ART initiation, ART viral suppression rates, and loss to follow-up. Maintaining current levels of combination prevention would lead to increasing HIV incidence and prevalence in South Africa, while the perfect combination scenario was projected to eliminate HIV on a 50-year time scale from 2013 to 2063. Perfecting testing and treatment, without changing condom use or circumcision rates, resulted in an 89% reduction in HIV incidence but not elimination. Universal adult male circumcision alone resulted in a 21% incidence reduction within 20 years. Substantial decreases in HIV incidence are possible from sufficient uptake of both primary prevention and ART, but with continuation of the status quo, HIV elimination in South Africa is unlikely within a 50-year time scale.

Measurement Noninvariance of Safer Sex Self-Efficacy Between Heterosexual and Sexual Minority Black Youth

OBJECTIVE

Black and lesbian, gay, bisexual, or questioning (LGBQ) youth in the United States are disproportionately affected by HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Although self-efficacy is strongly, positively associated with safer sex behaviors, no studies have examined the validity of a safer sex self-efficacy scale used by many federally funded HIV/STD prevention programs. This study aims to test factor validity of the Sexual Self-Efficacy Scale by using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to determine if scale validity varies between heterosexual and LGBQ Black youth.

METHOD

The study uses cross-sectional data collected through baseline surveys with 226 Black youth (15 to 24 years) enrolled in community-based HIV-prevention programs. Participants use a 4-point Likert-type scale to report their confidence in performing 6 healthy sexual behaviors. CFAs are conducted on 2 factor structures of the scale. Using the best-fitting model, the scale is tested for measurement invariance between the 2 groups.

RESULTS

A single-factor model with correlated errors of condom-specific items fits the sample well and, when tested with the heterosexual group, the model demonstrates good fit. However, when tested with the LGBQ group, the same model yields poor fit, indicating factorial noninvariance between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The Sexual Self-Efficacy Scale does not perform equally well among Black heterosexual and LGBQ youth. Study findings suggest additional research is needed to inform development of measures for safer sex self-efficacy among Black LGBQ youth to ensure validity of conceptual understanding and to accurately assess effectiveness of HIV/STD prevention interventions among this population.

Impact of the Centers for Disease Control's HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Guidelines for Men Who Have Sex With Men in the United States

BACKGROUND

 Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is effective for preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) within trial settings. Population impact will depend on clinical indications for PrEP initiation, coverage levels, and drug adherence. No modeling studies have estimated the impact of clinical practice guidelines for PrEP issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

METHODS

 Mathematical models of HIV transmission among MSM were used to estimate the percentage of infections averted (PIA) and the number needed to treat (NNT) under behavioral indications of the CDC's PrEP guidelines. We modeled the contribution of these indications while varying treatment coverage and adherence.

RESULTS

 At 40% coverage of indicated MSM over the next decade, application of CDC guidelines would avert 1162 infections per 100 000 person-years, 33.0% of expected infections. The predicted NNT for the guidelines would be 25. Increasing coverage and adherence jointly raise the PIA, but reductions to the NNT were associated with better adherence only.

CONCLUSIONS

 Implementation of CDC PrEP guidelines would result in strong and sustained reductions in HIV incidence among MSM in the United States. The guidelines strike a good balance between epidemiological impact (PIA) and efficiency (NNT) at plausible scale-up levels. Adherence counseling could maximize public health investment in PrEP by decreasing the NNT.

Maximising HIV prevention by balancing the opportunities of today with the promises of tomorrow: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Many ways of preventing HIV infection have been proposed and more are being developed. We sought to construct a strategic approach to HIV prevention that would use limited resources to achieve the greatest possible prevention impact through the use of interventions available today and in the coming years.

METHODS

We developed a deterministic compartmental model of heterosexual HIV transmission in South Africa and formed assumptions about the costs and effects of a range of interventions, encompassing the further scale-up of existing interventions (promoting condom use, male circumcision, early antiretroviral therapy [ART] initiation for all [including increased HIV testing and counselling activities], and oral pre-exposure prophylaxis [PrEP]), the introduction of new interventions in the medium term (offering intravaginal rings, long-acting injectable antiretroviral drugs) and long term (vaccine, broadly neutralising antibodies [bNAbs]). We examined how available resources could be allocated across these interventions to achieve maximum impact, and assessed how this would be affected by the failure of the interventions to be developed or scaled up.

FINDINGS

If all interventions are available, the optimum mix would place great emphasis on the following: scale-up of male circumcision and early ART initiation with outreach testing, as these are available immediately and assumed to be low cost and highly efficacious; intravaginal rings targeted to sex workers; and vaccines, as these can achieve a large effect if scaled up even if imperfectly efficacious. The optimum mix would rely less on longer term developments, such as long-acting antiretroviral drugs and bNAbs, unless the costs of these reduced. However, if impossible to scale up existing interventions to the extent assumed, emphasis on oral PrEP, intravaginal rings, and long-acting antiretroviral drugs would increase. The long-term effect on the epidemic is most affected by scale-up of existing interventions and the successful development of a vaccine.

INTERPRETATION

With current information, a strategic approach in which limited resources are used to maximise prevention impact would focus on strengthening the scale-up of existing interventions, while pursuing a workable vaccine and developing other approaches that can be used if further scale-up of existing interventions is limited.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Does HIV Exploit the Inflammatory Milieu of the Male Genital Tract for Successful Infection?

In many parts of the World, medical male circumcision (MMC) is used as standard prevention of care against HIV infection. This is based on seminal reports made over 10 years ago that removal of the foreskin provides up to 60% protection against HIV infection in males and seems currently the best antiretroviral-free prevention strategy yet against the global epidemic. We explore the potential mechanisms by which MMC protects against HIV-1 acquisition and that one of the oldest, albeit re-invented, rituals of removing a foreskin underscores the exploitative nature of HIV on the anatomy and tissue of the uncircumcised penis. Furthermore, foreskin removal also reveals how males acquire HIV, and in reality, the underlying mechanisms of MMC are not known. We argue that the normal sequelae of inflammation in the male genital tract (MGT) for protection from sexually transmitted infections (STI)-induced pathology represents a perfect immune and microbial ecosystem for HIV acquisition. The accumulation of HIV-1 target cells in foreskin tissue and within the urethra in response to STIs, both during and after resolution of infection, suggests that acquisition of HIV-1, through sexual contact, makes use of the natural immune milieu of the MGT. Understanding immunity in the MGT, the movement of HIV-1 target cells to the urethra and foreskin tissue upon encounter with microbial signals would provide more insight into viral acquisition and lay the foundation for further prevention strategies in males that would be critical to curb the epidemic in all sexual partners at risk of infection. The global female-centric focus of HIV-1 transmission and acquisition research has tended to leave gaps in our knowledge of what determines HIV-1 acquisition in men and such understanding would provide a more balanced and complete view of viral acquisition.

Deciphering the Effects of Injectable Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for Combination Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prevention

Injectable antiretrovirals including non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors are being evaluated for pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention. Mathematical modeling suggests that injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis among KwaZulu-Natal's at-risk populations could have substantial preventive impact but may increase drug resistance unless highly effective.

Background. A long-acting injectable formulation of rilpivirine (RPV), under investigation as antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), may facilitate PrEP adherence. In contrast, cross-resistance between RPV and nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors comprising first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) could promote human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance and reduce PrEP's effectiveness.

Methods. We use novel mathematical modeling of different RPV PrEP scale-up strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to investigate their effects on HIV prevention and drug resistance, compared with a reference scenario without PrEP.

Results. Pre-exposure prophylaxis scale-up modestly increases the proportion of prevalent drug-resistant infections, from 33% to ≤37%. The change in the number of prevalent drug-resistant infections depends on the interplay between PrEP factors (coverage, efficacy, delivery reliability, and scale-up strategy) and the level of cross-resistance between PrEP and ART. An optimistic scenario of 70% effective RPV PrEP (90% efficacious and 80% reliable delivery), among women aged 20–29 years, prevents 17% of cumulative infections over 10 years while decreasing prevalent resistance; however, prevention decreases and resistance increases with more conservative assumptions. Uncertainty analysis assuming 40%–70% cross-resistance prevalence predicts an increase in prevalent resistance unless PrEP's effectiveness exceeds 90%.

Conclusions. Prioritized scale-up of injectable PrEP among women in KwaZulu-Natal could reduce HIV infections, but suboptimal effectiveness could promote the spread of drug resistance.

Attitudes to and Understanding of Risk of Acquisition of HIV Over Time: Design and Methods for an Internet-based Prospective Cohort Study Among UK Men Who Have Sex With Men (the AURAH2 Study)

Background

The annual number of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) has risen in the United Kingdom and, of those who are HIV positive, the proportion undiagnosed is high.

Objective

The prospective AURAH2 study aims to assess factors associated with HIV acquisition among MSM in the United Kingdom and to investigate changes over time within individuals in sexual behavior and HIV-testing practices.

Methods

AURAH2 is a prospective study among MSM without diagnosed HIV, aiming to recruit up to 1000 sexually active MSM attending sexual health clinics in London and Brighton in the United Kingdom. Participants complete an initial paper-based questionnaire, followed by online follow-up questionnaires every 4 months collecting sociodemographic, health and behavioral data, including sexual behavior, recreational and other drug use, HIV testing practices, and pre-exposure prophylaxis use, over a planned 3-year period.

Results

The study is ongoing.

Conclusions

The results from AURAH2 study will provide important insight into established and emerging risk behaviors that may be associated with acquisition of HIV in MSM in the United Kingdom, changes over time within individuals in sexual behavior, and information on HIV testing practices. These data will be crucial to inform future HIV prevention strategies.

In Vitro Activity of Quaternary Ammonium Surfactants against Streptococcal, Chlamydial, and Gonococcal Infective Agents

Quaternary ammonium compounds (QAC) are widely used, cheap, and chemically stable disinfectants and topical antiseptics with wide-spectrum antimicrobial activities. Within this group of compounds, we recently showed that there are significant differences between the pharmacodynamics of n-alkyl quaternary ammonium surfactants (QAS) with a short (C12) alkyl chain when in vitro toxicities toward bacterial and mammalian epithelial cells are compared. These differences result in an attractive therapeutic window that justifies studying short-chain QAS as prophylactics for sexually transmitted infections (STI) and perinatal vertically transmitted urogenital infections (UGI). We have evaluated the antimicrobial activities of short-chain (C12) n-alkyl QAS against several STI and UGI pathogens as well as against commensal Lactobacillus species. Inhibition of infection of HeLa cells by Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis was studied at concentrations that were not toxic to the HeLa cells. We show that the pathogenic bacteria are much more susceptible to QAS toxic effects than the commensal vaginal flora and that QAS significantly attenuate the infectivity of N. gonorrhoeae and C. trachomatis without affecting the viability of epithelial cells of the vaginal mucosa. N-Dodecylpyridinium bromide (C12PB) was found to be the most effective QAS. Our results strongly suggest that short-chain (C12) n-alkyl pyridinium bromides and structurally similar compounds are promising microbicide candidates for topical application in the prophylaxis of STI and perinatal vertical transmission of UGI.

Targeting modulates audiences' brain and behavioral responses to safe sex video ads

Video ads promoting condom use are a key component of media campaigns to stem the HIV epidemic. Recent neuroimaging studies in the context of smoking cessation, point to personal relevance as one of the key variables that determine the effectiveness of public health messages. While minority men who have sex with men (MSM) are at the highest risk of HIV infection, most safe-sex ads feature predominantly Caucasian actors in heterosexual scenarios. We compared brain respons of 45 African American MSM to safe sex ads that were matched (i.e. 'Targeted') to participants' sexual orientation and race, and 'Untargeted' ads that were un matched for these characteristics. Ad recall, perceived 'convincingness' and attitudes towards condom use were also assessed. We found that Targeted ads were better remembered than the Untargeted ads but perceived as equally convincing. Targeted ads engaged brain regions involved in self-referential processing and memory, including the amygdala, hippocampus, temporal and medial prefrontal cortices (MPFC) and the precuneus. Connectivity between MPFC and precuneus and middle temporal gyrus was stronger when viewing Targeted ads. Our results suggest that targeting may increase cognitive processing of safe sex ads and justify further prospective studies linking brain response to media public health interventions and clinical outcomes.

Nonoccupational Postexposure Human Immunodeficiency Virus Prophylaxis: Acceptance Following Sexual Assault

BACKGROUND

Nonoccupational postexposure prophylaxis (nPEP) for HIV following sexual assault may decrease the likelihood of HIV transmission.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this exploratory chart review study was to examine factors associated with patients accepting post-sexual assault nPEP at three forensic nurse examiner programs in urban settings.

METHODS

Forensic nursing charts of patients presenting for acute sexual assault care were reviewed as part of a mixed-methods study.

RESULTS

Patients assaulted by more than one or an unknown number of assailants were over 12 times more likely to accept the offer of nPEP (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 12.66, 95% CI [2.77, 57.82]). In cases where no condom was used (aOR = 8.57, 95% CI [1.59, 46.10]) or when any injury to the anus or genitalia was noted (aOR = 4.10, 95% CI [1.57, 10.75]), patients were more likely to accept nPEP. Patients with any injury to the face or head were less likely to initiate nPEP (aOR = 0.32, 95% CI [0.11, 0.97]).

DISCUSSION

This study is an important first step in understanding factors associated with nPEP acceptance after sexual assault.

Circumcision is a primary preventive against HIV infection: Critique of a contrary meta-regression analysis by Van Howe

A meta-analysis by Van Howe of 109 populations confirms the well-known association of male circumcision (MC) with reduced HIV prevalence. He then performed meta-regression adjusting for location, risk and MC prevalence. When one or two of these adjustments in combination were applied MC appeared protective, but when all three were introduced the association remained significant in high-risk populations, but not in general populations within Africa with a hypothetical MC prevalence of <25% or elsewhere with hypothetical MC prevalence of <75%. However, many MC prevalence values given differed from those reported in references cited (including all US studies). This and other problems invalidate his adjustments for MC prevalence, undermining most of his meta-regression results. Meta-regression is a highly sophisticated statistical tool and is prone to error if not applied correctly. The study contained a high risk of bias arising from confounding. We also question his use of crude, rather than adjusted, odds ratios and his inclusion of unpublished data, so precluding replication by others. Flawed statistics, opaque presentation of results and inclusion of previously repudiated arguments downplaying a role for MC in HIV prevention programmes should lead readers to be sceptical of the findings and conclusions of Van Howe's study.

Prevalence and predictors of facing a legal obligation to disclose HIV serostatus to sexual partners among people living with HIV who inject drugs in a Canadian setting:a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND

In October 2012, the Canadian Supreme Court ruled that people living with HIV must disclose their HIV status before sex that poses a "realistic possibility" of HIV transmission, clarifying that in circumstances where condom-protected penile-vaginal intercourse occurred with a low viral load (< 1500 copies/mL), the realistic possibility of transmission would be negated. We estimated the proportion of people living with HIV who use injection drugs who would face a legal obligation to disclose under these circumstances.

METHODS

: We used cross-sectional survey data from a cohort of people living with HIV who inject drugs. Participants interviewed since October 2012 who self-reported recent penile-vaginal intercourse were included. Participants self-reporting 100% condom use with a viral load consistently < 1500 copies/mL were assumed to have no legal obligation to disclose. Logistic regression identified factors associated with facing a legal obligation to disclose.

RESULTS

We included 176 participants, 44% of whom were women: 94% had a low viral load, and 60% self-reported 100% condom use. If condom use and low viral load were required to negate the realistic possibility of transmission, 44% would face a legal obligation to disclose. Factors associated with facing a legal obligation to disclose were female sex (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-4.24), having 1 recent sexual partner (v. > 1) (adjusted OR 2.68, 95% CI 1.24-5.78) and self-reporting a stable relationship (adjusted OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.03-3.91).

INTERPRETATION

Almost half the participants in our analytic sample would face a legal obligation to disclose to sexual partners under these circumstances (with an increased burden among women), adding further risk of criminalization within this marginalized and vulnerable community.

Condom use and associated factors among men who have sex with men in Togo, West Africa

Introduction

In 2011, the prevalence of HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Togo was estimated at 19.6% compared to 3.4% in the general population. This study aimed to describe condom use and associated factors among MSM in Togo.

Methods

In 2011, a cross-sectional survey was conducted using the snowball sampling method among MSM in Togo. This study enrolled MSM aged 18 years and above who reported having sexual contact with other men within the last 30 days. A standardized survey form was used for data collection, and multivariate analyses were performed.

Results

A total of 724 MSM were included in this study. The median age was 25 years [22-28], 90.3% had at least a secondary school level. The sexual practices during the last sexual encounter with another man included: insertive anal sex (62.2%), receptive anal sex (56.6%), oral sex (33.8%) and oral-anal sex (8.6%). A condom was used during the last insertive and receptive anal encounters in 78.4% and 81.2% of the time, respectively. In multivariate analysis, condom use was positively associated with previous participation in HIV/STD prevention activities (aOR=1.72; 95% CI=[1.09-2.71]), with the consideration of the last sexual partner as a casual one (aOR=1.87; 95% CI=[1.24-2.82]) and with having at least a secondary school level (aOR=2.40; 95% CI=[1.22-4.69]).

Conclusion

One out of five MSM did not use a condom during the last anal encounter with another man. HIV prevention programs in Africa should develop specific interventions targeting MSM to reduce the incidence of HIV in this hidden population.

Potential cost-effectiveness of supervised injection facilities in Toronto and Ottawa, Canada

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Supervised injection facilities (legally sanctioned spaces for supervised consumption of illicitly obtained drugs) are controversial public health interventions. We determined the optimal number of facilities in two Canadian cities using health economic methods.

DESIGN

Dynamic compartmental model of HIV and hepatitis C transmission through sexual contact and sharing of drug use equipment.

SETTING

Toronto and Ottawa, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

Simulated population of each city.

INTERVENTIONS

Zero to five supervised injection facilities.

MEASUREMENTS

Direct health-care costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over 20 years, discounted at 5% per year; incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

FINDINGS

In Toronto, one facility cost $4.1 million and resulted in a gain of 385 QALYs over 20 years, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $10,763 per QALY [95% credible interval (95CrI): cost-saving to $278,311]. Establishing one facility in Ottawa had an ICER of $6127 per QALY (95CrI: cost-saving to $179,272). At a $50,000 per QALY threshold, three facilities would be cost-effective in Toronto and two in Ottawa. The probability that establishing three, four, or five facilities in Toronto was cost-effective was 17, 21, and 41%, respectively. Establishing one, two, or three facilities in Ottawa was cost-effective with 13, 35, and 41% probability, respectively. Establishing no facility was unlikely to be the most cost-effective option (14% in Toronto and 10% in Ottawa). In both cities, results were robust if the reduction in needle-sharing among clients of the facilities was at least 50% and fixed operating costs were less than $2.0 million.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-years threshold for cost-effectiveness, it is likely to be cost-effective to establish at least three legally sanctioned spaces for supervised injection of illicitly obtained drugs in Toronto, Canada and two in Ottawa, Canada.

Heterogeneity Among Sex Workers in Overlapping HIV Risk Interactions With People Who Inject Drugs: A Cross-Sectional Study From 8 Major Cities in Pakistan

Concerns remain regarding the heterogeneity in overlapping human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk behaviors among sex workers (SWs) in Pakistan; specifically, the degree to which SWs interact with people who inject drugs (PWID) through sex and/or needle sharing.Following an in-depth mapping performed in 2011 to determine the size and distribution of key populations at highest risk of HIV acquisition in Pakistan, a cross-sectional biological and behavioral survey was conducted among PWID, female (FSWs), male (MSWs), and hijra/transgender (HSWs) sex workers, and data from 8 major cities were used for analyses. Logistic regression was used to identify factors, including city of residence and mode of SW-client solicitation, contributing to the overlapping risks of drug injection and sexual interaction with PWID.The study comprised 8483 SWs (34.5% FSWs, 32.4% HSWs, and 33.1% MSWs). Among SWs who had sex with PWID, HSWs were 2.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-5.74) and 1.99 (95% CI, 0.94-4.22) times more likely to inject drugs than MSWs and FSWs, respectively. There was up to a 3-fold difference in drug injecting probability, dependent on where and/or how the SW solicited clients. Compared with SWs in Larkana, the highest likelihood of drug injection use was among SWs in Multan (OR = 4.52; 95% CI: 3.27-6.26), followed by those in Lahore, Quetta, and Faisalabad.Heterogeneity exists in the overlapping patterns of HIV risk behaviors of SWs. The risk of drug injection among SWs also varies by city. Some means of sexual client solicitation may be along the pathway to overlapping HIV risk vulnerability due to increased likelihood of drug injection among SWs. There is a need to closely to monitor the mixing patterns between SWs and PWID and underlying structural factors, such as means of sexual client solicitation, that mediate HIV risk, and implement prevention programs customized to local subepidemics.