Accuracy of competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia by maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation

Establishing a Differential Marker Profile for Pregnancy Complications Near Delivery

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this work was to define a differential marker profile for pregnancy complications near delivery.

METHODS

We enrolled pregnant women who were referred to the outpatient pregnancy clinic of the University Medical Center, Ljubljana, Slovenia, due to symptoms of pregnancy complications and women with a history of pregnancy complications attending the high-risk hospital clinic for close surveillance. They were evaluated for prior risk and were tested for biophysical and biochemical markers at the time of enrolment. Biochemical markers included the pro- and anti-angiogenic markers, along with additional previously reported markers of potential value, all tested by various formats of immuno-diagnostics. Biophysical markers included blood pressure, sonographic markers, and EndoPAT. Statistical differences were determined with Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests for continuous parameters, and Pearson χ2 for categorical values. p < 0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

The cohort included 125 pregnant patients, 31 developed preeclampsia (PE) alone (13 were <34 weeks' gestation), 16 had intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) alone (12 were <34 weeks), 42 had both IUGR and PE (22 were <34 weeks), and 15 had an iatrogenic preterm delivery (PTD; 6 were <34 weeks). Twenty-one were unaffected and delivered a healthy baby at term. Mean arterial blood pressure and proteinuria were significantly higher in PE and PE+IUGR but not in pure IUGR or PTD. In PE, IUGR, and PE+IUGR, the levels of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) and soluble endoglin (sEng) were significantly higher, while placental growth factor (PlGF) was very low compared to unaffected controls and PTD. PE, IUGR, and PE+IUGR also had a high anti-angiogenic ratio (sFlt-1/PlGF) and a low proangiogenic ratio of PlGF/(sFlt-1+Eng). Levels of inhibin A were significantly higher in pure PE across subgroups but had many extreme values, which made it a poor differentiator. Higher uterine artery Doppler pulsatility indexes were detected in PE, IUGR, and PE+IUGR, with similar resistance indexes and peaks of systolic velocity. A significantly different marker level between PE and IUGR was found using arterial stiffness that was 10 times higher in PE; concurrently with an increase of the reactive hyperemia index, both were accompanied by a slight increase in placental protein 13. Higher tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) differentially identified iatrogenic very early PTD (<34 weeks).

CONCLUSION

Arterial stiffness can serve as a major marker to differentiate PE (with/without IUGR) from pure IUGR near delivery. TNFα can differentiate iatrogenic early PTD from other complications of pregnancy and term IUGR.

Clinical risk assessment in early pregnancy for preeclampsia in nulliparous women: A population based cohort study

Objective

To evaluate the capacity of multivariable prediction of preeclampsia during pregnancy, based on detailed routinely collected early pregnancy data in nulliparous women.

Design and setting

A population-based cohort study of 62 562 pregnancies of nulliparous women with deliveries 2008–13 in the Stockholm-Gotland Counties in Sweden.

Methods

Maternal social, reproductive and medical history and medical examinations (including mean arterial pressure, proteinuria, hemoglobin and capillary glucose levels) routinely collected at the first visit in antenatal care, constitute the predictive variables. Predictive models for preeclampsia were created by three methods; logistic regression models using 1) pre-specified variables (similar to the Fetal Medicine Foundation model including maternal factors and mean arterial pressure), 2) backward selection starting from the full suite of variables, and 3) a Random forest model using the same candidate variables. The performance of the British National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) binary risk classification guidelines for preeclampsia was also evaluated. The outcome measures were diagnosis of preeclampsia with delivery <34, <37, and ≥37 weeks’ gestation.

Results

A total of 2 773 (4.4%) nulliparous women subsequently developed preeclampsia. The pre-specified variables model was superior the other two models, regarding prediction of preeclampsia with delivery <34 and <37 weeks, both with areas under the curve of 0.68, and sensitivity of 30.6% (95% CI 24.5–37.2) and 29.2% (95% CI 25.2–33.4) at a 10% false positive rate, respectively. The performance of these customizable multivariable models at the chosen false positive rate, was significantly better than the binary NICE-guidelines for preeclampsia with delivery <37 and ≥37 weeks’ gestation.

Conclusion

Multivariable models in early pregnancy had a modest performance, although providing advantages over the NICE-guidelines, in predicting preeclampsia in nulliparous women. Use of a machine learning algorithm (Random forest) did not result in superior prediction.

Revised competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancy by maternal characteristics and medical history

BACKGROUND

We have proposed previously that the competing-risks model for prediction of pre-eclampsia (PE) based on maternal characteristics and medical history (prior model), developed in singleton pregnancies, can be extended to risk assessment for twins; in dichorionic (DC) and monochorionic (MC) twin pregnancies with the same characteristics as in singleton pregnancies, the distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE was shifted to the left by 8 and 10 weeks, respectively. However, in a subsequent validation study, we found that, in both the training and validation datasets, the observed incidence of PE was lower than the predicted one and such overestimation of risk was particularly marked for early PE.

OBJECTIVES

First, to develop a new extension of the competing-risks prior model in screening for PE by maternal demographic characteristics and medical history in twin pregnancies in a training dataset. Second, to examine the predictive performance of this model in screening for PE with delivery < 34 weeks (early PE), < 37 weeks (preterm PE) and at any gestational age (all PE) in twins in a validation dataset. Third, to demonstrate the application of screening in a mixed population of singleton and twin pregnancies.

METHODS

The data for this study were obtained from two prospective non-intervention multicenter screening studies for PE in twin pregnancies at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. The training and validation datasets consisted of 2219 and 2999 women, respectively. We used the training dataset to fit a model in which the effect of twins on shifting the distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE in singletons to the left should not be the same for all gestational ages but the shift should depend on the singleton prior mean; the effect increases with increasing prior mean. We examined the predictive performance of the model in the training and validation datasets using the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Data on 16 747 singleton pregnancies obtained from the Screening ProgRamme for prE-Eclampsia (SPREE) study were included to examine the performance of screening in a mixed population of singleton and twin pregnancies.

RESULTS

Calibration plots and calibration intercept and slope demonstrate superior predictive performance of the new model in the validation dataset. Although the AUC for twin pregnancies is lower than in singleton pregnancies, performance of screening in a mixed population of singleton and twin pregnancies is superior to that in singletons (AUC of 0.790 in a mixed population comprising 2% twins and 98% singletons compared to 0.775 in singletons). For the risk cut-offs likely to be used in practice, all twin pregnancies screen positive using maternal characteristics and medical history.

CONCLUSIONS

A new competing-risks model in screening for PE by maternal risk factors in twin pregnancy has been developed and, using this model, the predicted risks for early PE, preterm PE and all PE are in relatively good agreement with the observed incidence of the disease. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Two-stage approach for prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonate and adverse perinatal outcome by routine ultrasound examination at 35-37 weeks' gestation

BACKGROUND

Justification of prenatal screening for small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses near term is based on, first, evidence that such fetuses/neonates are at increased risk of stillbirth and adverse perinatal outcome, and, second, the expectation that these risks can be reduced by medical interventions, such as early delivery. However, there are no randomized studies demonstrating that routine screening for SGA fetuses and appropriate interventions in the high-risk group can reduce adverse perinatal outcome. Before such meaningful studies can be undertaken, it is essential that the best approach for effective identification of SGA neonates is determined, and that the contribution of SGA neonates to the overall rate of adverse perinatal outcome is established. In a previous study of pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation, we found that, first, screening by estimated fetal weight (EFW) < 10^th percentile provided poor prediction of SGA neonates and, second, prediction of > 85% of SGA neonates requires use of EFW < 40^th percentile.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the contribution of SGA fetuses to the overall rate of adverse perinatal outcome and, to propose a two-stage approach for prediction of a SGA neonate at routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 45 847 singleton pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. First, we examined the relationship between birth-weight percentile and adverse perinatal outcome, defined as stillbirth, neonatal death or admission to the neonatal unit for ≥ 48 h. Second, we used a two-stage approach for prediction of a SGA neonate and adverse perinatal outcome; in the first stage, fetal biometry was used to distinguish between pregnancies at very low risk (EFW ≥ 40^th percentile) and those at increased risk (EFW < 40^th percentile) and, in the second stage, the pregnancies with EFW < 40^th percentile were stratified into high-, intermediate- and low-risk groups based on the results of EFW and pulsatility index in the uterine arteries, umbilical artery and fetal middle cerebral artery. Different percentiles of EFW and Doppler indices were used to define each risk category, and the performance of screening for a SGA neonate and adverse perinatal outcome in pregnancies delivered at ≤ 2, 2.1-4 and > 4 weeks after assessment was determined. We propose that the high-risk group would require monitoring from initial assessment to delivery, the intermediate-risk group would require monitoring from 2 weeks after initial assessment to delivery, the low-risk group would require monitoring from 4 weeks after initial assessment to delivery, and the very low-risk group would not require any further reassessment.

RESULTS

First, although in neonates with low birth weight (< 10^th percentile) the risk of adverse perinatal outcome is increased, 84% of adverse perinatal events occur in the group with birth weight ≥ 10^th percentile. Second, in screening by EFW < 10^th percentile, the predictive performance for a SGA neonate is modest for those born at ≤ 2 weeks after assessment (83% and 69% for neonates with birth weight < 3^rd and < 10^th percentiles, respectively), but poor for those born at 2.1-4 weeks (65% and 45%, respectively) and > 4 weeks (40% and 30%, respectively) after assessment. Third, improved performance of screening, especially for those delivered at > 2 weeks after assessment, is potentially achieved by a proposed new approach for stratifying pregnancies into management groups based on findings of EFW and Doppler indices (prediction of birth weight < 3^rd and < 10^th percentiles for deliveries at ≤ 2, 2.1-4 and > 4 weeks after assessment: 89% and 75%, 83% and 74%, and 88% and 82%, respectively). Fourth, the predictive performance for adverse perinatal outcome of EFW < 10^th percentile is very poor (26%, 9% and 5% for deliveries at ≤ 2, 2.1-4 and > 4 weeks after assessment, respectively) and this is improved by the proposed new approach (31%, 22% and 29%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents an approach for stratifying pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation into four management groups based on findings of EFW and Doppler indices. This approach potentially has a higher predictive performance for a SGA neonate and adverse perinatal outcome than that of screening by EFW < 10^th percentile. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of Preterm Birth by Maternal Characteristics and Medical History in the Brazilian Population

Objectives

The aim of this study was to assess the performance of a previously published algorithm for first-trimester prediction of spontaneous preterm birth (PTB) in a cohort of Brazilian women.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of women undergoing routine antenatal care. Maternal characteristics and medical history were obtained. The data were inserted in the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) online calculator to estimate the individual risk of PTB. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the effects of maternal characteristics on the occurrence of PTB. A receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to determine the detection rates and false-positive rates of the FMF algorithm in predicting PTB <34 weeks of gestation in our population.

Results

In total, 1,323 women were included. Of those, 23 (1.7%) had a spontaneous PTB before 34 weeks of gestation, 87 (6.6%) had a preterm birth between 34 and 37 weeks, and 1,197 (91.7%) had a term delivery. Smoking and a previous history of recurrent PTB between 16 and 30 weeks of gestation without prior term pregnancy were significantly more common among women who delivered before 34 weeks of gestation compared to those who delivered at term were (39.1% vs. 12.0%, p = 0.001 and 8.7% vs. 0%, p < 0.001, respectively). Smoking and history of spontaneous PTB remained significantly associated with spontaneous PTB in the multivariate logistic regression analysis. Significant prediction of PTB <34 weeks of gestation was provided by the FMF algorithm (area under the ROC curve 0.67, 95% CI 0.56–0.78, p = 0.005), but the detection rates for fixed false-positive rates of 10% and 20% were poor (26.1% and 34.8%, respectively).

Conclusions

Maternal characteristics and history in the first trimester can significantly predict the occurrence of spontaneous delivery before 34 weeks of gestation. Although the predictive algorithm performed similarly to previously published data, the detection rates are poor and research on new biomarkers to improve its performance is needed.

The effect of parity on longitudinal maternal hemodynamics

BACKGROUND

Parous women have a lower risk for pregnancy complications, such as preeclampsia or delivery of small-for-gestational-age neonates. However, parous women are a heterogeneous group of patients because they contain a low-risk cohort with previously uncomplicated pregnancies and a high-risk cohort with previous pregnancies complicated by preeclampsia and/or small for gestational age. Previous studies examining the effect of parity on maternal hemodynamics, including cardiac output and peripheral vascular resistance, did not distinguish between parous women with and without a history of preeclampsia or small for gestational age and reported contradictory results.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to compare maternal hemodynamics in nulliparous women and in parous women with and without previous preeclampsia and/or small for gestational age.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a prospective, longitudinal study of maternal hemodynamics, assessed by a bioreactance method, measured at 11⁺⁰ to 13⁺⁶, 19⁺⁰ to 24⁺⁰, 30⁺⁰ to 34⁺⁰, and 35⁺⁰ to 37⁺⁰ weeks' gestation in 3 groups of women. Group 1 was composed of parous women without a history of preeclampsia and/or small for gestational age (n = 632), group 2 was composed of nulliparous women (n = 829), and group 3 was composed of parous women with a history of preeclampsia and/or small for gestational age (n = 113). A multilevel linear mixed-effects model was performed to compare the repeated measures of hemodynamic variables controlling for maternal characteristics, medical history, and development of preeclampsia or small for gestational age in the current pregnancy.

RESULTS

In groups 1 and 2, cardiac output increased with gestational age to a peak at 32 weeks and peripheral vascular resistance showed a reversed pattern with its nadir at 32 weeks; in group 1, compared with group 2, there was better cardiac adaptation, reflected in higher cardiac output and lower peripheral vascular resistance. In group 3 there was a hyperdynamic profile of higher cardiac output and lower peripheral vascular resistance at the first trimester followed by an earlier sharp decline of cardiac output and increase of peripheral vascular resistance from midgestation. The incidence of preeclampsia and small for gestational age was highest in group 3 and lowest in group 1.

CONCLUSION

There are parity-specific differences in maternal cardiac adaptation in pregnancy.

Early prediction of preeclampsia and small-for-gestational-age via multi-marker model in Chinese pregnancies: a prospective screening study

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence suggests early screening of preeclampsia and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) would benefit pregnancies followed by subsequent prophylactic use of aspirin. Multi-marker models have shown capability of predicting preeclampsia and SGA in first trimester. Yet the clinical feasibility of combined screening model for Chinese pregnancies has not been fully assessed. The aim of this study is to evaluate the applicability of a multi-marker screening model to the prediction of preeclampsia and SGA in first trimester particularly among Chinese population.

METHODS

Three thousand two hundred seventy pregnancies meeting the inclusion criteria took first-trimester screening of preeclampsia and SGA. A prior risk based on maternal characteristics was evaluated, and a posterior risk was assessed by combining prior risk with multiple of median (MoM) values of mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum placental growth factor (PLGF) and pregnancy associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A). Both risks were calculated by Preeclampsia PREDICTOR™ software, Perkin Elmer. Screening performance of prior and posterior risks for early and late preeclampsia by using PREDICTOR software was shown by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves. The estimation of detection rates and false positive rates of delivery with both preeclampsia and SGA was made.

RESULTS

Eight cases developed early preeclampsia (0.24%) and 35 were diagnosed as late preeclampsia (1.07%). Five with early preeclampsia and ten with late preeclampsia later delivered SGA newborns (0.46%); 84 without preeclampsia gave birth to the SGAs (2.57%). According to ROC curves, posterior risks performed better than prior risks in terms of preeclampsia, especially in early preeclampsia. At 10% false positive rate, detection rates of early and late preeclampsia were 87.50 and 48.57%, detection rates of early and late SGA were 41.67 and 28.00%, respectively. For SGA, detection rates in cases with preeclampsia were much higher than those in absence of it.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that combined screening model could be useful for predicting early preeclampsia in Chinese pregnancies. Furthermore, the performance of SGA screening by same protocol is strongly associated with preeclampsia.

Pre-eclampsia: pathophysiology and clinical implications

Pre-eclampsia is a common disorder that particularly affects first pregnancies. The clinical presentation is highly variable but hypertension and proteinuria are usually seen. These systemic signs arise from soluble factors released from the placenta as a result of a response to stress of syncytiotrophoblast. There are two sub-types: early and late onset pre-eclampsia, with others almost certainly yet to be identified. Early onset pre-eclampsia arises owing to defective placentation, whilst late onset pre-eclampsia may center around interactions between normal senescence of the placenta and a maternal genetic predisposition to cardiovascular and metabolic disease. The causes, placental and maternal, vary among individuals. Recent research has focused on placental-uterine interactions in early pregnancy. The aim now is to translate these findings into new ways to predict, prevent, and treat pre-eclampsia.

Maternal hemodynamics in screen-positive and screen-negative women of the ASPRE trial

OBJECTIVE

To compare maternal hemodynamics and perinatal outcome, in pregnancies that do not develop pre-eclampsia (PE) or deliver a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate, between those identified at 11-13 weeks' gestation as being screen positive or negative for preterm PE, by a combination of maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, serum placental growth factor and pregnancy associated plasma protein-A.

METHODS

This was a prospective longitudinal cohort study of maternal cardiovascular function, assessed using a bioreactance method, in women undergoing first-trimester screening for PE. Maternal hemodynamics and perinatal outcome were compared between screen-positive and screen-negative women who did not have a medical comorbidity, did not develop PE or pregnancy-induced hypertension and delivered at term a live neonate with birth weight between the 5^th and 95^th percentiles. A multilevel linear mixed-effects model was used to compare the repeated measures of cardiac variables, controlling for maternal characteristics.

RESULTS

The screen-negative group (n = 926) had normal cardiac function changes across gestation, whereas the screen-positive group (n = 170) demonstrated static or reduced cardiac output and stroke volume and higher mean arterial pressure and peripheral vascular resistance with advancing gestation. In the screen-positive group, compared with screen-negative women, birth-weight Z-score was shifted toward lower values, with prevalence of delivery of a neonate below the 35^th , 30^th or 25^th percentile being about 70% higher, and the rate of operative delivery for fetal distress in labor also being higher.

CONCLUSION

Women who were screen positive for impaired placentation, even though they did not develop PE or deliver a SGA neonate, had pathological cardiac adaptation in pregnancy and increased risk of adverse perinatal outcome. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Correlation between central and uterine hemodynamics in hypertensive disorders of pregnancy

OBJECTIVE

Pregnancies affected by a hypertensive disorder (HDP) have increased uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) compared with that in healthy pregnancies. Women with HDP are also known to have lower cardiac output and increased systemic vascular resistance. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between central and uterine hemodynamics in HDP and uncomplicated pregnancy.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of HDP and normotensive control singleton pregnancies presenting at a tertiary referral hospital between January 2012 and December 2017. Paired measurements of maternal hemodynamics, using a non-invasive device (USCOM-1A®), and UtA-PI were performed in the third trimester. HDP pregnancies were divided into preterm (onset < 37 weeks' gestation) and term (onset ≥ 37 weeks). Spearman's rank coefficient was used to assess the correlation between the central and uteroplacental hemodynamics. Regression analysis was performed to assess the association of UtA-PI with independent variables.

RESULTS

We included 231 women with HDP (152 with preterm and 79 with term HDP) and 378 controls with normotensive pregnancy. Compared with controls, women with preterm HDP had significantly lower cardiac output (median (interquartile range (IQR)), 6.0 (5.1-7.2) vs 6.6 (5.8-7.5) L/min; P < 0.001) and significantly higher systemic vascular resistance (median (IQR), 1394 (1189-1670) vs 1063 (915-1222) dynes × s/cm⁵ ; P < 0.001) and UtA-PI (median (IQR), 1.0 (0.75-1.4) vs 0.67 (0.58-0.83); P < 0.001). Conversely, in women with term HDP, there were no significant differences in heart rate, cardiac output or UtA-PI compared with controls (all P > 0.05), while systemic vascular resistance was significantly higher (median (IQR), 1315 (1099-1527) vs 1063 (915-1222) dynes × s/cm⁵ ; P < 0.001). On multiple regression analysis, heart rate, mean arterial pressure and stroke volume were associated significantly with mean UtA-PI (all P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Differences observed between HDP and normotensive pregnancies in third-trimester UtA resistance are mirrored in the central maternal hemodynamic parameters. Late pregnancy differences in the uteroplacental circulation in preterm and term HDP are an index of maternal cardiovascular function rather than being related to inadequate spiral artery remodeling and impaired placentation. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Routine ultrasound at 32 vs 36 weeks' gestation: prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate and compare the performance of routine ultrasonographic estimated fetal weight (EFW) and fetal abdominal circumference (AC) at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 and 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation in the prediction of a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate.

METHODS

This was a prospective study of 21 989 singleton pregnancies undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks' gestation and 45 847 undergoing routine ultrasound examination at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation. In each case, the estimated fetal weight (EFW) from measurements of fetal head circumference, AC and femur length was calculated using the Hadlock formula and expressed as a percentile according to The Fetal Medicine Foundation fetal and neonatal population weight charts. The same charts were used for defining a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles. For each gestational-age window, the screen-positive and detection rates, at different EFW percentile cut-offs between the 10^th and 50^th percentiles, were calculated for prediction of delivery of a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles within 2 weeks and at any stage after assessment. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUC) in screening for a SGA neonate by EFW and AC at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 and at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation were compared.

RESULTS

First, the AUCs in screening by EFW for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles delivered within 2 weeks and at any stage after screening at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation were significantly higher than those at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks (P < 0.001). Second, at both 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 and 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks' gestation, the predictive performance for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles born at any stage after screening was significantly higher using EFW Z-score than AC Z-score. Similarly, at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks, but not at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks, the predictive performance for a SGA neonate with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles born within 2 weeks after screening was significantly higher using EFW Z-score than AC Z-score. Third, screening by EFW < 10^th percentile at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation predicted 70% and 84% of neonates with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles, respectively, born within 2 weeks after assessment, and the respective values for a neonate born at any stage after assessment were 46% and 65%. Fourth, prediction of > 85% of SGA neonates with birth weight < 10^th percentile born at any stage after screening at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation requires use of EFW < 40^th percentile. Screening at this percentile cut-off predicted 95% and 99% of neonates with birth weight < 10^th and < 3^rd percentiles, respectively, born within 2 weeks after assessment, and the respective values for a neonate born at any stage after assessment were 87% and 94%.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive performance for a SGA neonate of routine ultrasonographic examination during the third trimester is higher if, first, the scan is carried out at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation than at 31 + 0 to 33 + 6 weeks, second, the method of screening is EFW than fetal AC, third, the outcome measure is birth weight < 3^rd than < 10^th percentile, and, fourth, if delivery occurs within 2 weeks than at any stage after assessment. Prediction of a SGA neonate by EFW < 10^th percentile is modest and prediction of > 85% of cases at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation necessitates use of EFW < 40^th percentile. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prenatal screening for pre-eclampsia: Frequently asked questions

The current approach to screening for pre-eclampsia is based on guidelines that rely on medical and obstetric history in early pregnancy to select a high-risk group that might benefit from low-dose aspirin. However, combined screening tests with the addition of biophysical and biochemical measurements have shown significantly better detection rates for preterm pre-eclampsia. Furthermore, the administration of aspirin for the 10% screen-positive group can lead to a significant reduction in severe and preterm forms of pre-eclampsia. This review aims to answer frequently asked questions related to the clinical implementation of screening and the management of screening results.

Association between fertility treatments and early placentation markers

INTRODUCTION

Pregnancies resulting from fertility treatments are at higher risk of placenta-mediated complications. Hence, we aimed to estimate the association between fertility treatment and levels of first-trimester markers of placentation.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study in an academic center from 03/2011 to 12/2014. Adult nulliparous women with singleton pregnancies were recruited between 11 ^+ 0 and 13 ^+ 6 weeks of gestation. Data on maternal characteristics, medical history, and pregnancies conceived through fertility treatments (whether ovulation agents, insemination or assisted reproductive technologies) were collected. Maternal serum concentrations of PlGF, sFlt-1, PAPP-A, AFP, and free β-hCG were obtained, and notches and UtA-PI were measured using Doppler ultrasound. Mean Multiple of the Medians (MoM) and frequencies were computed to estimate the mean differences (MD) or risk ratios (RR) comparing fertility treatment to spontaneous pregnancies.

RESULTS

427 (9%) pregnancies out of 4815 were conceived through fertility treatments, using ovulation agents (n = 233, 5%), insemination (n = 174, 4%) and/or assisted reproductive technologies (n = 85, 2%). The latter were associated with significantly lower log₁₀PAPP-A MoM (adjusted MD: -0.02, 95%CI: -0.04 to -0.01), lower log₁₀PlGF MoM (adjusted MD: -0.04, 95%CI: -0.06 to -0.01) and higher log₁₀free β-hCG MoM (adjusted MD: 0.05, 95%CI: 0.01 to 0.09) compared to spontaneous pregnancies. Ovulation agents and insemination were associated with the presence of notches (adjusted RR: 1.24, 95%CI: 1.14 to 1.35; and 1.27, 95%CI: 1.15 to 1.42, respectively) and higher log₁₀UtA-PI MoM (adjusted MD: 0.16, 95%CI: 0.08 to 0.24; and 0.17, 95%CI: 0.07 to 0.27, respectively) than spontaneous pregnancies.

CONCLUSION

Fertility treatments are associated with significant variations in markers of placentation.

The International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) initiative on pre-eclampsia: A pragmatic guide for first-trimester screening and prevention

Pre‐eclampsia (PE) is a multisystem disorder that typically affects 2%–5% of pregnant women and is one of the leading causes of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality, especially when the condition is of early onset. Globally, 76 000 women and 500 000 babies die each year from this disorder. Furthermore, women in low‐resource countries are at a higher risk of developing PE compared with those in high‐resource countries. Although a complete understanding of the pathogenesis of PE remains unclear, the current theory suggests a two‐stage process. The first stage is caused by shallow invasion of the trophoblast, resulting in inadequate remodeling of the spiral arteries. This is presumed to lead to the second stage, which involves the maternal response to endothelial dysfunction and imbalance between angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors, resulting in the clinical features of the disorder. Accurate prediction and uniform prevention continue to elude us. The quest to effectively predict PE in the first trimester of pregnancy is fueled by the desire to identify women who are at high risk of developing PE, so that necessary measures can be initiated early enough to improve placentation and thus prevent or at least reduce the frequency of its occurrence. Furthermore, identification of an “at risk” group will allow tailored prenatal surveillance to anticipate and recognize the onset of the clinical syndrome and manage it promptly. PE has been previously defined as the onset of hypertension accompanied by significant proteinuria after 20 weeks of gestation. Recently, the definition of PE has been broadened. Now the internationally agreed definition of PE is the one proposed by the International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy (ISSHP). According to the ISSHP, PE is defined as systolic blood pressure at ≥140 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure at ≥90 mm Hg on at least two occasions measured 4 hours apart in previously normotensive women and is accompanied by one or more of the following new‐onset conditions at or after 20 weeks of gestation: 1.Proteinuria (i.e. ≥30 mg/mol protein:creatinine ratio; ≥300 mg/24 hour; or ≥2 + dipstick); 2.Evidence of other maternal organ dysfunction, including: acute kidney injury (creatinine ≥90 μmol/L; 1 mg/dL); liver involvement (elevated transaminases, e.g. alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase >40 IU/L) with or without right upper quadrant or epigastric abdominal pain; neurological complications (e.g. eclampsia, altered mental status, blindness, stroke, clonus, severe headaches, and persistent visual scotomata); or hematological complications (thrombocytopenia–platelet count <150 000/μL, disseminated intravascular coagulation, hemolysis); or 3.Uteroplacental dysfunction (such as fetal growth restriction, abnormal umbilical artery Doppler waveform analysis, or stillbirth). It is well established that a number of maternal risk factors are associated with the development of PE: advanced maternal age; nulliparity; previous history of PE; short and long interpregnancy interval; use of assisted reproductive technologies; family history of PE; obesity; Afro‐Caribbean and South Asian racial origin; co‐morbid medical conditions including hyperglycemia in pregnancy; pre‐existing chronic hypertension; renal disease; and autoimmune diseases, such as systemic lupus erythematosus and antiphospholipid syndrome. These risk factors have been described by various professional organizations for the identification of women at risk of PE; however, this approach to screening is inadequate for effective prediction of PE. PE can be subclassified into: 1.Early‐onset PE (with delivery at <34+0 weeks of gestation); 2.Preterm PE (with delivery at <37+0 weeks of gestation); 3.Late‐onset PE (with delivery at ≥34+0 weeks of gestation); 4.Term PE (with delivery at ≥37+0 weeks of gestation). These subclassifications are not mutually exclusive. Early‐onset PE is associated with a much higher risk of short‐ and long‐term maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Obstetricians managing women with preterm PE are faced with the challenge of balancing the need to achieve fetal maturation in utero with the risks to the mother and fetus of continuing the pregnancy longer. These risks include progression to eclampsia, development of placental abruption and HELLP (hemolysis, elevated liver enzyme, low platelet) syndrome. On the other hand, preterm delivery is associated with higher infant mortality rates and increased morbidity resulting from small for gestational age (SGA), thrombocytopenia, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, cerebral palsy, and an increased risk of various chronic diseases in adult life, particularly type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and obesity. Women who have experienced PE may also face additional health problems in later life, as the condition is associated with an increased risk of death from future cardiovascular disease, hypertension, stroke, renal impairment, metabolic syndrome, and diabetes. The life expectancy of women who developed preterm PE is reduced on average by 10 years. There is also significant impact on the infants in the long term, such as increased risks of insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, and hypertension in infants born to pre‐eclamptic women. The International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) brought together international experts to discuss and evaluate current knowledge on PE and develop a document to frame the issues and suggest key actions to address the health burden posed by PE. FIGO's objectives, as outlined in this document, are: (1) To raise awareness of the links between PE and poor maternal and perinatal outcomes, as well as to the future health risks to mother and offspring, and demand a clearly defined global health agenda to tackle this issue; and (2) To create a consensus document that provides guidance for the first‐trimester screening and prevention of preterm PE, and to disseminate and encourage its use. Based on high‐quality evidence, the document outlines current global standards for the first‐trimester screening and prevention of preterm PE, which is in line with FIGO good clinical practice advice on first trimester screening and prevention of pre‐eclampsia in singleton pregnancy.1 It provides both the best and the most pragmatic recommendations according to the level of acceptability, feasibility, and ease of implementation that have the potential to produce the most significant impact in different resource settings. Suggestions are provided for a variety of different regional and resource settings based on their financial, human, and infrastructure resources, as well as for research priorities to bridge the current knowledge and evidence gap. To deal with the issue of PE, FIGO recommends the following: Public health focus: There should be greater international attention given to PE and to the links between maternal health and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) on the Sustainable Developmental Goals agenda. Public health measures to increase awareness, access, affordability, and acceptance of preconception counselling, and prenatal and postnatal services for women of reproductive age should be prioritized. Greater efforts are required to raise awareness of the benefits of early prenatal visits targeted at reproductive‐aged women, particularly in low‐resource countries. Universal screening: All pregnant women should be screened for preterm PE during early pregnancy by the first‐trimester combined test with maternal risk factors and biomarkers as a one‐step procedure. The risk calculator is available free of charge at https://fetalmedicine.org/research/assess/preeclampsia. FIGO encourages all countries and its member associations to adopt and promote strategies to ensure this. The best combined test is one that includes maternal risk factors, measurements of mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum placental growth factor (PLGF), and uterine artery pulsatility index (UTPI). Where it is not possible to measure PLGF and/or UTPI, the baseline screening test should be a combination of maternal risk factors with MAP, and not maternal risk factors alone. If maternal serum pregnancy‐associated plasma protein A (PAPP‐A) is measured for routine first‐trimester screening for fetal aneuploidies, the result can be included for PE risk assessment. Variations to the full combined test would lead to a reduction in the performance screening. A woman is considered high risk when the risk is 1 in 100 or more based on the first‐trimester combined test with maternal risk factors, MAP, PLGF, and UTPI. Contingent screening: Where resources are limited, routine screening for preterm PE by maternal factors and MAP in all pregnancies and reserving measurements of PLGF and UTPI for a subgroup of the population (selected on the basis of the risk derived from screening by maternal factors and MAP) can be considered. Prophylactic measures: Following first‐trimester screening for preterm PE, women identified at high risk should receive aspirin prophylaxis commencing at 11–14+6 weeks of gestation at a dose of ~150 mg to be taken every night until 36 weeks of gestation, when delivery occurs, or when PE is diagnosed. Low‐dose aspirin should not be prescribed to all pregnant women. In women with low calcium intake (<800 mg/d), either calcium replacement (≤1 g elemental calcium/d) or calcium supplementation (1.5–2 g elemental calcium/d) may reduce the burden of both early‐ and late‐onset PE.

Validation of competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia in twin pregnancy by maternal factors

OBJECTIVE

To examine the predictive performance of the competing-risks model in screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) by maternal demographic characteristics and medical history in twin pregnancy, in a training dataset used for development of the model and a validation dataset.

METHODS

The data for this study were derived from two prospective non-intervention multicenter screening studies for PE in twin pregnancies at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. The first study of 2219 women, which was reported previously, was used to develop the competing-risks model for prediction of PE and is therefore considered to be the training set. The validation study comprised 2999 women. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 34 (early), < 37 (preterm) and < 41 + 3 (all) weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing-risks model and the performance of screening for PE in the training and validation datasets was assessed. We examined the predictive performance of the model by, first, its ability to discriminate between the PE and no-PE groups using the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) and, second, calibration, which assesses agreement between the predicted risk and observed incidence of PE.

RESULTS

The incidence of early PE, preterm PE and all PE in the training and validation datasets was similar (1.8% vs 1.4%, 5.6% vs 5.6% and 7.7% vs 7.2%, respectively) and this was substantially higher than in our previous studies in singleton pregnancies. The training and validation datasets had similar AUCs for early PE (0.670 (95% CI, 0.593-0.747) vs 0.677 (95% CI, 0.594-0.760)), preterm PE (0.666 (95% CI, (0.617-0.715) vs 0.652 (95% CI, 0.609-0.694)) and all PE (0.656 (95% CI, 0.615-0.697) vs 0.644 (95% CI, 0.606-0.682)). Calibration plots of the predictive performance of the competing-risks model demonstrated that, in both the training and validation datasets, the observed incidence of PE was lower than the predicted one and such overestimation of risk was particularly marked for early PE.

CONCLUSIONS

Discrimination and calibration of the competing-risks model for PE in a validation dataset are consistent with those in the training dataset. However, the model needs to be adjusted to correct the observed overestimation of risk for early PE. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Relationship of Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein A and Human Chorionic Gonadotropin with Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes: A Prospective Study

Purpose

This prospective study investigated the relationship between pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and adverse pregnancy outcomes in the Iranian population.

Materials

Overall, 994 singleton pregnant mothers of 18-35-year old were referred for first-trimester screening tests, including PAPP-A and β-hCG, at the age of 6 days and 11-13 weeks, and were followed until the end of their pregnancy. The adverse pregnancy outcomes, PAPP-A, and β-hCG serum levels were recorded and analyzed. The sensitivity and specificity of the test were measured by calculating the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC).

Results

The mean serum level of PAPP-A and β-hCG was 1.10 ± 0.69 and 1.09 ± 0.8 MoM, respectively. Pregnancy-associated plasma protein A, regardless of its percentile, showed a significant relationship with the incidence of preeclampsia, preterm birth, and fetal low birth weight (p < 0.001 for each). However, the relationship between PAPP-A and abortion was not significant (p > 0.05). According to ROC, the results indicated that PAPP-A had a significant relationship with the incidence of preeclampsia, preterm birth, and fetal low birth weight (p < 0.001). However, β-hCG levels showed no significant relationship with adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Conclusions

The result of this study revealed that lower level of PAPP-A and β-hCG could be a predictive factor in preterm labor. Also, this study indicated that PAPP-A measurements could be a screening test for adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as preeclampsia, low birth weight and preterm labor.

Comparison of two "a priori" risk assessment algorithms for preeclampsia in Italy: a prospective multicenter study

PURPOSE

To compare the performance of the algorithms proposed by the Fetal Medicine Foundation in 2012 and BCNatal in 2013 in an Italian population.

METHODS

A multicentric prospective study was carried out which included pregnancies at 11-13 weeks' gestation from Jan 2014 through May 2017. Two previously published algorithms were used for the calculation of the "a priori" risk of preeclampsia (based on risk factors from medical history) in each individual.

RESULTS

In a study population of 11,632 cases, 67 (0.6%) developed early preeclampsia and 211 (1.8%) developed late preeclampsia. The detection rates (95% CI) for early and late preeclampsia were 58.2% (45.5-70.2) vs. 41.8% (29.6-54.5) (p value < 0.05) and 44.1% (37.3-51.1) vs. 38% (31.3-44.8) (p value < 0.05) for the Fetal Medicine Foundation and BCNatal, respectively (at a 10% false positive rate). The associated risk was 1:226 and 1:198 (p value ns) for early PE, and 1:17 and 1:24 (p value ns) for late PE for the Fetal Medicine Foundation and BCNatal, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The Fetal Medicine Foundation screening for preeclampsia at 11-13 weeks' gestation scored the highest detection rate for both early and late PE. At a fixed 10% false positive rate, the estimated "a priori" risks of both the Fetal Medicine Foundation and the BCNatal algorithms in an Italian population were quite similar, and both were reliable and consistent.

Aspirin and heparin for the prevention of pre-eclampsia: protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Pre-eclampsia is an important cause of death and complication for pregnant women and perinatal infant. Low-dose aspirin has been most commonly used to prevent pre-eclampsia in high-risk pregnant women. Recently, heparins have also been used alone or in combination with aspirin to prevent pre-eclampsia. However, the optimal doses and combination therapy of aspirin and heparins are not well established. Therefore, we aim to compare aspirin, heparins and their combination to prevent pre-eclampsia in a network meta-analysis.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will search the following electronic databases from the date of database establishment to 8 January 2019: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and ProQuest. We will also search additional studies manually. There will be no restriction on the language of publications. Only randomised clinical trials will be eligible in our network meta-analysis. We will include pregnant women who have been recommended for aspirin according to the standard of the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, or were designated as high risk in some recent studies. We will include studies comparing the effects of any single or combination of aspirin and heparins with placebo or observation or another intervention in pregnancy. We will include studies that reported one of the following outcomes: pre-eclampsia, severe pre-eclampsia, preterm delivery, perinatal death and full-term pre-eclampsia with delivery at ≥37 weeks. Traditional pairwise meta-analysis will be performed initially, and then network meta-analysis will be performed using frequency analysis method. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses will be conducted to assess the robustness of the findings.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This network meta-analysis does not require ethical certification. An overview and information on the prevention of pre-eclampsia in high-risk pregnant women will be provided by this network meta-analysis.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018084248.

Down's Syndrome Screening in the First Trimester with Additional Serum Markers: Indian Parameters

Objective

To derive a risk calculation algorithm suitable for use in India when screening for Down's syndrome using four first-trimester maternal serum markers either alone or with ultrasound nuchal translucency (NT).

Methods

Stored maternal serum samples (- 20 °C) from 411 singleton unaffected pregnancies were retrieved and measured for pregnancy-associated plasma protein (PAPP-A), free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), placental growth factor and α-fetoprotein. Samples were taken at 10-13 weeks' gestation. Equations were derived to express marker levels in multiples of the gestation-specific normal median, adjusted for maternal weight. Gaussian model parameters were derived and compared with six published non-Indian studies; NT parameters were derived from 27,647 women screened in India. On the basis of the maternal age distribution in 64,473 Indian women screened in 2016-2017, the model was used to predict test performance.

Results

The model predicted a detection rate for a serum-only protocol of 80% for a 5% false-positive rate. Using a 1 in 250 at term Down's syndrome risk cut-off, the predicted detection rate was 78% and the false-positive rate was 4.1%. When NT was also included, the rates were 95% for 5% and 90% for 1.4%, respectively.

Conclusion

First-trimester screening using four serum markers only can be carried out in India. Performance is expected to be similar to the second-trimester Quad test and will also facilitate early screening for preeclampsia and open spina bifida. A protocol of NT plus the four serum markers enhances the performance compared with NT, PAPP-A and free β-hCG.

Quality assessment of uterine artery Doppler measurement in first-trimester combined screening for pre-eclampsia

OBJECTIVE

To assess the quality of mean uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI) measurement in a first-trimester pre-eclampsia screening program.

METHODS

Consecutive women with a singleton pregnancy attending first-trimester screening for fetal chromosomal abnormalities also had combined screening for pre-eclampsia based on the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) algorithm, at a large practice in Sydney, Australia, from May 2014 to February 2017. Distributions of mean UtA-PI multiples of the median (MoM) on a logarithmic scale were plotted in relation to the normal median with 95% CI for each operator and for each month. Central tendency and dispersion and cumulative sum charts were produced. Mean UtA-PI MoM values between 0.95 and 1.05 were considered ideal and those between 0.90 and 1.10 were considered acceptable. The screen-positive rates for preterm pre-eclampsia in different groups of sonographers according to their mean log₁₀ UtA-PI MoM were calculated and compared using the chi-square test.

RESULTS

A total of 21 010 women attended for first-trimester ultrasound and had screening for pre-eclampsia. The overall median UtA-PI MoM was 1.042 (interquartile range (IQR), 0.85-1.26). Of 46 sonographers, 42 (91.3%) performed more than 50 examinations and, of those, 41 (97.6%) measured UtA-PI within the acceptable range. Sonographers measuring UtA-PI MoM on average below 0.95 and those measuring it above 1.05 had, respectively, lower and higher screen-positive rates when compared with those with measurements within the 0.95-1.05 UtA-PI MoM interval (7.2% and 13.2% vs 11.2%, respectively, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

UtA Doppler is measured well among trained operators when following an established protocol. While slight variations are expected, systematic error in this measurement impacts on the screen-positive rate. Therefore, a quality control process should be in place and retraining of staff may be required. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Two-stage screening for preterm preeclampsia at 11-13 weeks' gestation

BACKGROUND

Screening for preeclampsia at 11-13 weeks' gestation by a combination of maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and serum placental growth factor (triple test) can predict about 90% of preeclampsia, with delivery at <32 weeks (early-preeclampsia), and 75% of preeclampsia with delivery at <37 weeks (preterm preeclampsia), at a screen-positive rate of 10%. In pregnancies identified as being at high risk for preeclampsia by such screening, administration of aspirin (150 mg/d from 11 to 14 weeks' gestation to 36 weeks) reduces the rate of early preeclampsia by about 90% and preterm preeclampsia by about 60%. Recording of maternal history and blood pressure are part of routine prenatal care, but measurement of uterine artery pulsatility index and placental growth factor require additional costs.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the possibility of carrying out first-stage screening in the whole population by maternal factors alone or a combination of maternal factors, mean arterial pressure and uterine artery pulsatility index or maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, and placental growth factor and proceeding to second-stage screening by the triple test only for a subgroup of the population selected on the basis of the risk derived from first-stage screening.

STUDY DESIGN

The data for this study were derived from prospective nonintervention screening for preeclampsia at 11⁺⁰ to 13⁺⁶ weeks' gestation in 61,174 singleton pregnancies. Patient-specific risks of delivery with preeclampsia at <37 and <32 weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing risks model to combine the prior distribution of the gestational age at delivery with preeclampsia, obtained from maternal characteristics and medical history, with various combinations of multiple of the median values of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and placental growth factor. We estimated the detection rate of preterm-preeclampsia and early-preeclampsia at overall screen-positive rate of 10%, 15%, and 20% from a policy in which first-stage screening of the whole population is carried out by some of the components of the triple test and second-stage screening by the full triple test on women selected on the basis of results from first-stage screening.

RESULTS

If the method of first-stage screening is maternal factors, then measurements of mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and placental growth factor can be reserved for only 70% of the population, achieving similar detection rate and screen-positive rate as with screening the whole population with the triple test. In the case of first-stage screening by maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, and uterine artery pulsatility index, then measurement of placental growth factor can be reserved for only 30-40% of the population, and if first-stage screening is by maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, and placental growth factor, measurement of uterine artery pulsatility index can be reserved for only 20-30% of the population. Empirical results were consistent with model-based performance.

CONCLUSION

Two-stage screening and biomarker testing for only part of the population will have financial benefits over conducting the test for the entire population.

Predictive performance of the competing risk model in screening for preeclampsia

BACKGROUND

The established method of screening for preeclampsia is to identify risk factors from maternal demographic characteristics and medical history; in the presence of such factors the patient is classified as high risk and in their absence as low risk. However, the performance of such an approach is poor. We developed a competing risks model, which allows combination of maternal factors (age, weight, height, race, parity, personal and family history of preeclampsia, chronic hypertension, diabetes mellitus, systemic lupus erythematosus or antiphospholipid syndrome, method of conception and interpregnancy interval), with biomarkers to estimate the individual patient-specific risks of preeclampsia requiring delivery before any specified gestation. The performance of this approach is by far superior to that of the risk scoring systems.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to examine the predictive performance of the competing risks model in screening for preeclampsia by a combination of maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index, and serum placental growth factor, referred to as the triple test, in a training data set for the development of the model and 2 validation studies.

STUDY DESIGN

The data for this study were derived from 3 previously reported prospective, nonintervention, multicenter screening studies for preeclampsia in singleton pregnancies at 11⁺⁰ to 13⁺⁶ weeks' gestation. In all 3 studies, there was recording of maternal factors and biomarkers and ascertainment of outcome by appropriately trained personnel. The first study of 35,948 women, which was carried out between February 2010 and July 2014, was used to develop the competing risks model for prediction of preeclampsia and is therefore considered to be the training set. The 2 validation studies were comprised of 8775 and 16,451 women, respectively, and they were carried out between February and September 2015 and between April and December 2016, respectively. Patient-specific risks of delivery with preeclampsia at <34, <37, and <41⁺³ weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing risks model and the performance of screening for preeclampsia by maternal factors alone and the triple test in each of the 3 data sets was assessed. We examined the predictive performance of the model by first, the ability of the model to discriminate between the preeclampsia and no-preeclampsia groups using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the detection rate at fixed screen-positive rate of 10%, and second, calibration by measurements of calibration slope and calibration in the large.

RESULTS

The detection rate at the screen-positive rate of 10% of early-preeclampsia, preterm-preeclampsia, and all-preeclampsia was about 90%, 75%, and 50%, respectively, and the results were consistent between the training and 2 validation data sets. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was >0.95, >0.90, and >0.80, respectively, demonstrating a very high discrimination between affected and unaffected pregnancies. Similarly, the calibration slopes were very close to 1.0, demonstrating a good agreement between the predicted risks and observed incidence of preeclampsia. In the prediction of early-preeclampsia and preterm-preeclampsia, the observed incidence in the training set and 1 of the validation data sets was consistent with the predicted one. In the other validation data set, which was specifically designed for evaluation of the model, the incidence was higher than predicted, presumably because of better ascertainment of outcome. The incidence of all-preeclampsia was lower than predicted in all 3 data sets because at term many pregnancies deliver for reasons other than preeclampsia, and therefore, pregnancies considered to be at high risk for preeclampsia that deliver for other reasons before they develop preeclampsia can be wrongly considered to be false positives.

CONCLUSION

The competing risks model provides an effective and reproducible method for first-trimester prediction of early preeclampsia and preterm preeclampsia as long as the various components of screening are carried out by appropriately trained and audited practitioners. Early prediction of preterm preeclampsia is beneficial because treatment of the high-risk group with aspirin is highly effective in the prevention of the disease.

Preeclampsia in 2018: Revisiting Concepts, Physiopathology, and Prediction

Preeclampsia currently remains one of the leading causes of death and severe maternal morbidity. Although its prevalence is still underestimated in some places due to underreporting, preeclampsia is a disease that health professionals need to know how to deal with and take action. For this reason, the studies about the theme remain along with the advances in their understanding that often implies improvement and change of concepts and conducts. The complexity of its etiology is a challenge and requires further studies for its full understanding. Apparently, poor adaptation of the maternal organism to the conceptus, marked by the nonoccurrence of changes in the uterine spiral arteries, determines a series of systemic repercussions that compound the various forms of preeclampsia presentation. In recent years, the use of acetylsalicylic acid to prevent cases of early onset of the disease has been consolidated and, alongside, studies have advanced the development of accessible and effective methods of identifying women at risk of preeclampsia. The aim of this review is to discuss updates on the occurrence, concept, pathophysiology, repercussion, prevention, and prediction of preeclampsia.

Risk assessment for preterm preeclampsia in first trimester: Comparison of three calculation algorithms

OBJECTIVE

To better adjust the risk for preeclampsia, multifactorial models in first trimester of pregnancy have found the way in clinical practice. This study compares the available test algorithms.

STUDY DESIGN

In a cross-sectional study between November 2013 and April 2016 we compared the tests results of three first trimester testing algorithms for preeclampsia in 413 women. Risk for preterm preeclampsia was calculated with three different algorithms: Preeclampsia Predictor™ Software by PerkinElmer (PERK), ViewPoint® Software by GE Healthcare (VP) and the online calculator of the Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF).We analyzed the data descriptively and determined Cohen's Kappa to assess the agreement among the algorithms.

RESULTS

VP classified 89(21.5%) women, PERK 43(10.4%) women and FMF 90 (21.8%) women as having high risk for preterm preeclampsia (<34 weeks of gestation for VP and PERK and <37 weeks of gestation for FMF). Agreement between tests ranged from moderate to substantial (PERK/VP: κ = 0.56, PERK/ FMF: κ = 0.50, and VP/ FMF: κ = 0.72).

CONCLUSION

The three algorithms are similar but not equal. This may depend on chosen cut off, but also on test properties. This study cannot decide which algorithm is the best, but differences in results and cut offs should be taken into account.

Transverse technique: complementary approach to measurement of first-trimester uterine artery Doppler

OBJECTIVES

To define a protocol for the first-trimester assessment of uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) using the new transverse technique, to evaluate UtA-PI measured using the transverse approach vs that obtained using the conventional sagittal approach and to determine if accelerated onsite training (in both methods) of inexperienced sonographers can achieve reproducible UtA-PI measurements comparable with those obtained by an experienced sonographer.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of women with a singleton pregnancy attending for routine combined first-trimester screening at 11 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation. The study consisted of two parts, each conducted at a different center (Part 1 in Calgary, Canada and Part 2 in Hong Kong). In Part 1, UtA-PI measurements were performed using the transverse and sagittal techniques by four sonographers trained in both methods, in 10 cases each, and measurement indices (PI), time required and subjective difficulty in obtaining satisfactory measurements were compared. The one sample t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test were used when appropriate. Bland-Altman plots were used to assess measurement agreement, and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to evaluate measurement reliability. A target plot was used to assess measures of central tendency and dispersion. In Part 2, one experienced and three inexperienced sonographers prospectively measured UtA-PI using both approaches in 42 and 35 women, respectively. Inexperienced sonographers underwent accelerated onsite training by the experienced sonographer. Measurement approach and sonographer order were on a random basis. ICC, Bland-Altman and Passing-Bablok analyses were performed to assess measurement agreement and reliability and effect of accelerated training.

RESULTS

In Part 1, no difference was observed between the two techniques in mean time to acquire the measurements (118 s for sagittal vs 106 s for transverse; P = 0.38). The four sonographers reported that the transverse technique was subjectively easier to perform (P = 0.04). Bias and ICC for mean UtA-PI between sagittal and transverse measurements were -0.05 (95% limits of agreement, -0.48 to 0.37) and 0.94, respectively. Measurements obtained using the transverse technique after correcting for gestational age were significantly closer to the expected distribution than those obtained using the sagittal technique. In Part 2, there were no significant differences in median UtA-PI measured using the different approaches for both experienced and inexperienced sonographers (P > 0.05 for all sonographers). Mean UtA-PI measurement reliability between approaches was high for the experienced (ICC = 0.92) and inexperienced (ICC > 0.80) sonographers. UtA-PI measurement approaches did not deviate from linearity, while bias ranged from -0.10 to 0.07. The median time required was similar between the techniques (56.1 s for sagittal vs 49.3 s for transverse; P = 0.054).

CONCLUSIONS

This novel transverse approach for the measurement of UtA-PI in the first trimester appears to be comparable with the sagittal approach in terms of reliability, reproducibility and time required, and may be easier to perform. Providing accelerated onsite training can be helpful for improving the reliability of UtA-PI measurements and could potentially facilitate the broad implementation of first-trimester pre-eclampsia screening. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The first-trimester of pregnancy - A window of opportunity for prediction and prevention of pregnancy complications and future life

The International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) has identified non communicable maternal diseases (NCDs) as a new focus area. NCDs and exposures as related to pregnancy complications and later impairment of maternal and offspring health will form the basis for action in the forthcoming years. This paper summarizes recent advances, centered on the use of first-trimester testing, as a window of opportunity to predict and prevent many pregnancy complications; and for potential future prevention of NCDs in mother and offspring. Recent results from a large-scale randomized control trial have provided definitive proof that effective screening for preterm preeclampsia (preterm-PE), requiring delivery before 37 weeks' gestation, can be achieved with a combined test of maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks and that aspirin, given to high-risk women, is effective in reducing the risk of preterm-PE and the length of stay in neonatal intensive care unit. This is the first successful example to illustrate that pregnancy complications is predictable and preventable in early pregnancy. Similar prediction and prevention strategies are being developed for hyperglycemia in pregnancy and preterm birth, with the intention for longer lasting interventions leading to significant downstream impact in improving long-term health in both mothers and babies.

First-Trimester Placental Growth Factor for the Prediction of Preeclampsia in Nulliparous Women: The Great Obstetrical Syndromes Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

First-trimester maternal serum markers have been associated with preeclampsia (PE). We aimed to evaluate the performance of first-trimester placental growth factor (PlGF) for the prediction of PE in nulliparous women.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of nulliparous women with singleton pregnancy at 11-13 weeks. Maternal serum PlGF concentration was measured using B·R·A·H·M·S PlGFplus KRYPTOR automated assays and reported in multiple of the median adjusted for gestational age. We used proportional hazard models, along with receiver operating characteristic curves and areas under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Out of 4,652 participants, we observed 232 (4.9%) cases of PE including 202 (4.3%) term and 30 (0.6%) preterm PE. PlGF was associated with the risk of term (AUC = 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.65) and preterm PE (AUC = 0.73, 95% CI 0.64-0.83). The models were improved with the addition of maternal characteristics (AUC for term PE 0.66, 95% CI 0.62-0.71; AUC for preterm PE 0.81, 95% CI 0.72-0.91; p < 0.01). At a false-positive rate of 10%, PlGF combined with maternal characteristics could have predicted 26% of term and 55% of preterm PE. The addition of pregnancy-associated plasma protein A did not significantly improve the prediction models.

CONCLUSION

First-trimester PlGF combined with maternal characteristics is useful to predict preterm PE in nulliparous women.

Screening for pre-eclampsia at 35-37 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the performance of screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) at 35-37 weeks' gestation by maternal factors and combinations of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1).

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study in women with singleton pregnancy attending for an ultrasound scan at 35 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care. Bayes' theorem was used to combine the prior distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE, obtained from maternal characteristics and medical history, with various combinations of biomarker multiples of the median (MoM) values to derive the patient-specific risks of delivery with PE. The performance of such screening was estimated.

RESULTS

The study population of 13 350 pregnancies included 272 (2.0%) that subsequently developed PE. In pregnancies that developed PE, the MoM values of MAP, UtA-PI and sFlt-1 were increased and PlGF MoM was decreased. At a risk cut-off of 1 in 20, the proportion of the population stratified into high risk was about 10% of the total, and the proportion of cases of PE contained within this high-risk group was 28% with screening by maternal factors alone; the detection rate increased to 53% with the addition of MAP, 67% with the addition of MAP and PlGF and 70% with the addition of MAP, PlGF and sFlt-1. The performance of screening was not improved by the addition of UtA-PI. The performance of screening depended on the racial origin of the women; in screening by a combination of maternal factors, MAP, PlGF and sFlt-1 and use of the risk cut-off of 1 in 20, the detection rate and screen-positive rate were 66% and 9.5%, respectively, for Caucasian women and 88% and 18% for those of Afro-Caribbean racial origin.

CONCLUSION

Screening by maternal factors and biomarkers at 35-37 weeks' gestation can identify a high proportion of pregnancies that develop late PE. The performance of screening depends on the racial origin of the women. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Discriminatory Accuracy of Preeclampsia Risk Factors in Primary Care

BACKGROUND

Although it is common to use risk factors in the screening for preeclampsia, they do not always accurately identify patients who truly have this condition.

AIM OF THE STUDY

To determine the discriminatory accuracy of known preeclampsia risk factors, both individually and in combination.

METHODS

We studied patients undergoing prenatal care who were diagnosed with preeclampsia or eclampsia (n = 160 cases) in primary care and those who were not (n = 430 controls). Data on history of preeclampsia, type 2 diabetes, chronic hypertension, multiple gestation, first pregnancy, pregnancy interval ≥10 years, overweight/obesity, mean arterial pressure (MAP) ≥80 mmHg, and age (<20 years and ≥40 years) were obtained using a dichotomous scale. Discriminatory accuracy indicators were true-positive (TP) and false-positive (FP) rates, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve; stratified by parity. The case-control status was the reference standard.

RESULTS

Certain combinations performed better than individual factors, independent of parity status. Among multiparous women, MAP ≥80 mmHg together with previous preeclampsia and overweight/obesity accumulated the greatest number of discriminatory accuracy indicators, with acceptable values: TP, 72.2%; FP, 1.5%; LR+, 48.4; LR-, 0.3; DOR, 171.6; and AUROC, 0.85.

CONCLUSIONS

Discriminatory accuracy was low for almost all individual preeclampsia risk factors. However, the accuracy improved after some factors were combined. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the discriminatory accuracy of preeclampsia risk factors used for screening high-risk pregnancies in primary care in Mexico.

The complex aetiology of cerebral palsy

Cerebral palsy (CP) is the most prevalent, severe and costly motor disability of childhood. Consequently, CP is a public health priority for prevention, but its aetiology has proved complex. In this Review, we summarize the evidence for a decline in the birth prevalence of CP in some high-income nations, describe the epidemiological evidence for risk factors, such as preterm delivery and fetal growth restriction, genetics, pregnancy infection and other exposures, and discuss the success achieved so far in prevention through the use of magnesium sulfate in preterm labour and therapeutic hypothermia for birth-asphyxiated infants. We also consider the complexities of disentangling prenatal and perinatal influences, and of establishing subtypes of the disorder, with a view to accelerating the translation of evidence into the development of strategies for the prevention of CP.

Management of pregnancies after combined screening for pre-eclampsia at 19-24 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the patient-specific risk of pre-eclampsia (PE) at 19-24 weeks' gestation by maternal factors and combinations of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1). On the basis of the risk of PE, the women would be stratified into high-, intermediate- and low-risk management groups. The high-risk group would require close monitoring for high blood pressure and proteinuria at 24-31 weeks. The intermediate-risk group, together with the undelivered pregnancies from the high-risk group, would have reassessment of risk for PE at 32 weeks to identify those who would require close monitoring for high blood pressure and proteinuria at 32-35 weeks. All pregnancies would have reassessment of risk for PE at 36 weeks to define the plan for further monitoring and delivery.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study of women attending for an ultrasound scan at 19-24 weeks as part of routine pregnancy care. Patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 32 and at < 36 weeks' gestation were calculated using the competing-risks model to combine the prior distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE, obtained from maternal characteristics and medical history, with multiples of the median (MoM) values of MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF and sFlt-1. Different risk cut-offs were used to vary the proportion of the population stratified into high-, intermediate- and low-risk groups, and the performance of screening for delivery with PE at < 32 weeks' gestation and at 32 + 0 to 35 + 6 weeks was estimated.

RESULTS

The study population of 16 254 singleton pregnancies included 467 (2.9%) that subsequently developed PE (23 delivered at < 32 weeks, 58 delivered at 32 + 0 to 35 + 6 weeks and 386 delivered at ≥ 36 weeks). Using a risk of > 1 in 25 for PE at < 32 weeks' gestation and risk of > 1 in 150 for PE at < 36 weeks, the proportion of the population stratified into the high-risk group was about 1% of the total, and the proportion of cases of PE at < 32 weeks' gestation contained within this high-risk group varied from about 35% with screening by maternal factors and MAP, to 78% with maternal factors, MAP and UtA-PI, and up to 100% with maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF, with or without sFlt-1. Similarly, the proportion of the population requiring reassessment of risk at 32 weeks' gestation and the proportion of cases of PE at 32 + 0 to 35 + 6 weeks contained within this population varied, respectively, from about 18% and 79% with screening by maternal factors and MAP, to 10% and 90% with maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF, with or without sFlt-1.

CONCLUSION

In the new pyramid of pregnancy care, assessment of risk for PE at 19-24 weeks' gestation can stratify the population into those requiring intensive monitoring at 24-31 weeks and those in need of reassessment at 32 weeks. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Screening for pre-eclampsia by maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the performance of screening for early, preterm and term pre-eclampsia (PE) at 11-13 weeks' gestation by maternal factors and combinations of mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI), serum placental growth factor (PlGF) and serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A).

METHODS

The data for this study were derived from three previously reported prospective non-intervention screening studies at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation in a combined total of 61 174 singleton pregnancies, including 1770 (2.9%) that developed PE. Bayes' theorem was used to combine the prior distribution of gestational age at delivery with PE, obtained from maternal characteristics, with various combinations of biomarker multiples of the median (MoM) values to derive patient-specific risks of delivery with PE at < 37 weeks' gestation. The performance of such screening was estimated.

RESULTS

In pregnancies that developed PE, compared to those without PE, the MoM values of UtA-PI and MAP were increased and those of PAPP-A and PlGF were decreased, and the deviation from normal was greater for early than late PE for all four biomarkers. Combined screening by maternal factors, UtA-PI, MAP and PlGF predicted 90% of early PE, 75% of preterm PE and 41% of term PE, at a screen-positive rate of 10%; inclusion of PAPP-A did not improve the performance of screening. The performance of screening depended on the racial origin of the women; on screening by a combination of maternal factors, MAP, UtA-PI and PlGF and using a risk cut-off of 1 in 100 for PE at < 37 weeks in Caucasian women, the screen-positive rate was 10% and detection rates for early, preterm and term PE were 88%, 69% and 40%, respectively. With the same method of screening and risk cut-off in women of Afro-Caribbean racial origin, the screen-positive rate was 34% and detection rates for early, preterm and term PE were 100%, 92% and 75%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Screening by maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation can identify a high proportion of pregnancies that develop early and preterm PE. © 2018 Crown copyright. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology © 2018 ISUOG.

Prediction of preterm birth with and without preeclampsia using mid-pregnancy immune and growth-related molecular factors and maternal characteristics

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate if mid-pregnancy immune and growth-related molecular factors predict preterm birth (PTB) with and without (±) preeclampsia.

STUDY DESIGN

Included were 400 women with singleton deliveries in California in 2009-2010 (200 PTB and 200 term) divided into training and testing samples at a 2:1 ratio. Sixty-three markers were tested in 15-20 serum samples using multiplex technology. Linear discriminate analysis was used to create a discriminate function. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Twenty-five serum biomarkers along with maternal age <34 years and poverty status identified >80% of women with PTB ± preeclampsia with best performance in women with preterm preeclampsia (AUC = 0.889, 95% confidence interval (0.822-0.959) training; 0.883 (0.804-0.963) testing).

CONCLUSION

Together with maternal age and poverty status, mid-pregnancy immune and growth factors reliably identified most women who went on to have a PTB ± preeclampsia.

Enhanced First Trimester Aneuploidy Screening with Placental Growth Factor and Alpha Feto-Protein: Detection of Trisomies 18 and 13

OBJECTIVES

To assess the performance of first trimester combined screening (FTS) when enhanced with placental growth factor and alpha feto-protein in the detection of trisomies 18 and 13.

METHODS

A retrospective case-control study. Marker parameters were derived using frozen serum samples. Multivariate Gaussian modelling predicted the detection rate (DR) and false-positive rate (FPR) for trisomies 18 and 13 with FTS and enhanced first trimester screening (eFTS) using the risk of trisomy 21 alone and an additional risk cut-off for trisomy 18, or trisomies 18 or 13.

RESULTS

There were 83 trisomy 18, 22 trisomy 13, and 588 controls. The median placental growth factor levels in trisomies 18 and 13 were 0.75 and 0.65 multiple of the median of controls, respectively (both P < 0.0001). There were no statistically significant differences in alpha feto-protein levels. Modelling predicts that using a trisomy 21 risk cut-off alone, at FPR of 3%, eFTS increases the DR for trisomies 18 and 13 by 0.6-0.8% compared with FTS. Additionally using a trisomy 18 risk cut-off, at an extra FPR of 0.2%, eFTS increased the DR by 0.6-0.9% over FTS; using a trisomy 18 or 13 risk cut-off did not further increase detection for FTS or eFTS. The increase in DR was greater at higher FPR.

CONCLUSION

eFTS increases the detection of trisomies 18 and 13 to a small extent.

Prediction and prevention of small-for-gestational-age neonates: evidence from SPREE and ASPRE

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effect of first-trimester screening for pre-eclampsia (PE) on the prediction of delivering a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonate and the effect of prophylactic use of aspirin on the prevention of SGA.

METHODS

The data for this study were derived from two multicenter studies. In SPREE, we investigated the performance of screening for PE by a combination of maternal characteristics and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation. In ASPRE, women with a singleton pregnancy identified by combined screening as being at high risk for preterm PE (> 1 in 100) participated in a trial of aspirin (150 mg/day from 11-14 until 36 weeks' gestation) compared to placebo. In this study, we used the data from the ASPRE trial to estimate the effect of aspirin on the incidence of SGA with birth weight < 10^th , < 5^th and < 3^rd percentile for gestational age. We also used the data from SPREE to estimate the proportion of SGA in the pregnancies with a risk for preterm PE of > 1 in 100.

RESULTS

In SPREE, screening for preterm PE by a combination of maternal factors, mean arterial pressure, uterine artery pulsatility index and serum placental growth factor identified a high-risk group that contained about 46% of SGA neonates < 10^th percentile born at < 37 weeks' gestation (preterm) and 56% of those born at < 32 weeks (early); the overall screen-positive rate was 12.2% (2014 of 16 451 pregnancies). In the ASPRE trial, use of aspirin reduced the overall incidence of SGA < 10^th percentile by about 40% in babies born at < 37 weeks' gestation and by about 70% in babies born at < 32 weeks; in babies born at ≥ 37 weeks, aspirin did not have a significant effect on incidence of SGA. The aspirin-related decrease in incidence of SGA was mainly due to its incidence decreasing in pregnancies with PE, for which the decrease was about 70% in babies born at < 37 weeks' gestation and about 90% in babies born at < 32 weeks. On the basis of these results, it was estimated that first-trimester screening for preterm PE and use of aspirin in the high-risk group would potentially reduce the incidence of preterm and early SGA by about 20% and 40%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

First-trimester screening for PE by the combined test identifies a high proportion of cases of preterm SGA that can be prevented by the prophylactic use of aspirin. © 2018 Crown copyright. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology © 2018 ISUOG.

Comparative Study of Abdominal Versus Transvaginal Ultrasound for Uterine Artery Doppler Velocimetry at 11 to 13 Weeks

OBJECTIVES

To compare the first-trimester uterine artery pulsatility index (PI) measured by abdominal and transvaginal ultrasound (US).

METHODS

We performed a prospective study of singleton pregnant women recruited at 11 to 13 weeks' gestation. The mean uterine artery PI was obtained by abdominal followed by transvaginal US. The mean of the left and right uterine artery PIs was used, and differences between approaches were computed. The intraclass correlation coefficient and a Bland-Altman plot were used to compare the two approaches.

RESULTS

Data were available for 940 participants, including 928 (99%) with uterine artery PIs obtained on both uterine sides. The mean uterine artery PI decreased with gestational age in both approaches (P < .001). We observed a moderate correlation between abdominal and transvaginal mean uterine artery PIs (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.69 to 0.75). Values obtained by abdominal US (median, 1.70, interquartile range, 1.35 to 2.09) were greater than those obtained by transvaginal US (median, 1.65; interquartile range, 1.37 to 1.99). There was a significant increase in differences as average measurements became higher (P < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

The first-trimester mean uterine artery PI decreases with gestational age in both approaches. Abdominal US could be associated with greater uterine artery PI values than transvaginal US, especially at higher measurements. The first-trimester uterine artery PI for prediction of adverse perinatal outcomes should be adjusted for gestational age and possibly for the US approach.

First trimester prediction and prevention of adverse pregnancy outcomes related to poor placentation

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To summarize recent research findings related to first trimester prediction and prevention of adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with poor placentation. Recent publications related to prediction and prevention of preeclampsia, intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) and stillbirth were reviewed.

RECENT FINDINGS

Researchers continue to identify markers that will help predict pregnancies that go on to develop preeclampsia through screening at 11-13 weeks. A number of multivariate algorithms describing risks for preeclampsia have been published and some of these have been validated in independent populations. A large randomized controlled trial has proven the efficacy of a first trimester prediction - prevention programme for preeclampsia with an 80% reduction in prevalence of disease leading to delivery less than 34 weeks. Screening tools for IUGR and stillbirth are less advanced and require further validation in other populations. The value of these models in preventing disease still needs to be demonstrated.

SUMMARY

Significant progress has been made in developing predictive and preventive strategies which can affect the prevalence of severe early-onset preeclampsia. This approach could be adopted for population-based screening aiming to prevent this disease.

ASPRE trial: incidence of preterm pre-eclampsia in patients fulfilling ACOG and NICE criteria according to risk by FMF algorithm

OBJECTIVE

To report the incidence of preterm pre-eclampsia (PE) in women who are screen positive according to the criteria of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), and compare the incidence with that in those who are screen positive or screen negative by The Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) algorithm.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of data from the ASPRE study. The study population consisted of women with singleton pregnancy who underwent prospective screening for preterm PE by means of the FMF algorithm, which combines maternal factors and biomarkers at 11-13 weeks' gestation. The incidence of preterm PE in women fulfilling the NICE and ACOG criteria was estimated; in these patients the incidence of preterm PE was then calculated in those who were screen negative relative to those who were screen positive by the FMF algorithm.

RESULTS

A total of 34 573 women with singleton pregnancy delivering at ≥ 24 weeks' gestation underwent prospective screening for preterm PE, of which 239 (0.7%) cases developed preterm PE. At least one of the ACOG criteria was fulfilled in 22 287 (64.5%) pregnancies and the incidence of preterm PE was 0.97% (95% CI, 0.85-1.11%); in the subgroup that was screen positive by the FMF algorithm the incidence of preterm PE was 4.80% (95% CI, 4.14-5.55%), and in those that were screen negative it was 0.25% (95% CI, 0.18-0.33%), with a relative incidence in FMF screen negative to FMF screen positive of 0.051 (95% CI, 0.037-0.071). In 1392 (4.0%) pregnancies, at least one of the NICE high-risk criteria was fulfilled, and in this group the incidence of preterm PE was 5.17% (95% CI, 4.13-6.46%); in the subgroups of screen positive and screen negative by the FMF algorithm, the incidence of preterm PE was 8.71% (95% CI, 6.93-10.89%) and 0.65% (95% CI, 0.25-1.67%), respectively, and the relative incidence was 0.075 (95% CI, 0.028-0.205). In 2360 (6.8%) pregnancies fulfilling at least two of the NICE moderate-risk criteria, the incidence of preterm PE was 1.74% (95% CI, 1.28-2.35%); in the subgroups of screen positive and screen negative by the FMF algorithm the incidence was 4.91% (95% CI, 3.54-6.79%) and 0.42% (95% CI, 0.20-0.86%), respectively, and the relative incidence was 0.085 (95% CI, 0.038-0.192).

CONCLUSION

In women who are screen positive for preterm PE by the ACOG or NICE criteria but screen negative by the FMF algorithm, the risk of preterm PE is reduced to within or below background levels. The results provide further evidence to support the personalized risk-based screening method that combines maternal factors and biomarkers. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Aspirin for Evidence-Based Preeclampsia Prevention trial: effect of aspirin on length of stay in the neonatal intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Preeclampsia is a major pregnancy complication with adverse short- and long-term implications for both the mother and baby. Screening for preeclampsia at 11-13 weeks' gestation by a combination of maternal demographic characteristics and medical history with measurements of biomarkers can identify about 75% of women who develop preterm preeclampsia with delivery at <37 weeks' gestation and 90% of those with early preeclampsia at <32 weeks, at a screen-positive rate of 10%. A recent trial (Combined Multimarker Screening and Randomized Patient Treatment with Aspirin for Evidence-Based Preeclampsia Prevention) has reported that in women identified by first-trimester screening as being at high risk for preeclampsia, use of aspirin (150 mg/d from the first to the third trimester), compared to placebo, reduced the incidence of preterm preeclampsia, which was the primary outcome, by 62% (95% confidence interval, 26-80%) and the incidence of early preeclampsia by 89% (95% confidence interval, 53-97%). The surprising finding of the trial was that despite the reduction in preeclampsia the incidence of admission to the neonatal intensive care unit, which was one of the secondary outcomes, was not significantly affected (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-1.40).

OBJECTIVE

We sought to examine the effect of prophylactic use of aspirin during pregnancy in women at high risk of preeclampsia on length of stay in the neonatal intensive care unit.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a secondary analysis of data from the Aspirin for Evidence-Based Preeclampsia Prevention trial to assess evidence of differences in the effect of aspirin on length of stay in neonatal intensive care. Bootstrapping was used for the comparison of mean length of stay between the aspirin and placebo groups. Logistic regression was used to assess treatment effects on stay in the neonatal intensive care unit.

RESULTS

In the trial there were 1620 participants and 1571 neonates were liveborn. The total length of stay in neonatal intensive care was substantially longer in the placebo than aspirin group (1696 vs 531 days). This is a reflection of significantly shorter mean lengths of stay in babies admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit from the aspirin than the placebo group (11.1 vs 31.4 days), a reduction of 20.3 days (95% confidence interval, 7.0-38.6; P = .008). Neonatal intensive care of babies born at <32 weeks' gestation contributed 1856 (83.3%) of the total of 2227 days in intensive care across both treatment arms. These occurred in 9 (1.2%) of the 777 livebirths in the aspirin group and in 23 (2.9%) of 794 in the placebo group (odds ratio, 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.19-0.93; P = .033). Overall, in the whole population, including 0 lengths of stay for those not admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit, the mean length of stay was longer in the placebo than aspirin group (2.06 vs 0.66 days; reduction of 1.4 days; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-2.81; P = .014). This corresponds to a reduction in length of stay of 68% (95% confidence interval, 20-86%).

CONCLUSION

In pregnancies at high risk of preeclampsia administration of aspirin reduces the length of stay in the neonatal intensive care unit by about 70%. This reduction could essentially be attributed to a decrease in the rate of births at <32 weeks' gestation, mainly because of prevention of early preeclampsia. The findings have implications for both short- and long-term health care costs as well as infant survival and handicap.

[Targeted screening for pre-eclampsia in the first trimester of pregnancy at Toulouse University Hospital]

GOALS

Preeclampsia (PE) is a leading cause of maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality. Early treatment by aspirin has been shown to significantly reduce PE risk before 37weeks supporting the implementation of first-trimester screening.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

A targeted screening was recently implemented at Toulouse University Hospital for women in their first pregnancy or those with personal or familial history of PE. It uses Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) algorithm that combines maternal characteristics, clinical, biophysical and biochemical (PAPP-A, Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein-A, and PlGF, Placental Growth Factor) data. We describe this first population of pregnant women and compare our results with those of a mini-test that excludes PlGF and biophysical data.

RESULTS

Between October 2016 and September 2017, 500women have benefited from this screening. In such targeted population, we identified 3,6 % (n=18) of women at high risk to develop PE before 34weeks and 9,6 % (n=48) of women at high risk to develop PE between 34 and 37weeks. When we recalculated the risk using the mini-test, only 10women (56 %) were identified at high risk of early PE.

CONCLUSION

For the first time in France, we report the result of a targeted screening of PE during the first trimester using the FMF algorithm. We describe the screened population and show that it is more efficient than the mini-test.