Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: a comparison of three actuarial scales

Less Is More: Using Static-2002R Subscales to Predict Violent and General Recidivism Among Sexual Offenders

Given that sexual offenders are more likely to reoffend with a nonsexual offense than a sexual offense, it is useful to have risk scales that predict general recidivism among sexual offenders. In the current study, we examined the extent to which two commonly used risk scales for sexual offenders (Static-99R and Static-2002R) predict violent and general recidivism, and whether it would be possible to improve predictive accuracy for these outcomes by revising their items. Based on an aggregated sample of 3,536 adult male sex offenders from Canada, the United States, and Europe (average age of 39 years), we found that a scale created from the Age at Release item and the General Criminality subscale of Static-2002R predicted nonsexual violent, any violent, and general recidivism significantly better than Static-99R or Static-2002R total scores. The convergent validity of this new scale (Brief Assessment of Recidivism Risk-2002R [BARR-2002R]) was examined in a new, independent data set of Canadian high-risk adult male sex offenders (N = 360) where it was found to be highly correlated with other risk assessment tools for general recidivism and the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R), as well as demonstrated similar discrimination and calibration as in the development sample. Instead of using total scores from the Static-99R or Static-2002R, we recommend that evaluators use the BARR-2002R for predicting violent and general recidivism among sex offenders, and for screening for the psychological dimension of antisocial orientation.

The MATS-1 Risk Assessment Scale: Summary of Methodological Concerns and an Empirical Validation

Recently, Wollert and colleagues proposed that sex offender recidivism estimates should be stratified by age and they developed an age-stratified scale called the MATS-1 (Multisample Age-Stratified Table of Sexual Recidivism). The purpose of this article is to highlight concerns with the development of the MATS-1 and to validate the scale using 3,510 sex offenders from 14 unique samples. Concerns with the scale's development fall into three categories: approximations leading to considerable loss of precision, absence of appropriate statistical tests, and the use of inappropriate statistical techniques. The predictive accuracy of the MATS-1 (Area Under the Curve [AUC] = .663) was significantly lower than Static-99R (AUC = .708). The MATS-1 also significantly underestimated recidivism for some offenders. Both the relative and absolute predictive properties of the MATS-1 were not stable across samples. We conclude that the MATS-1 is not appropriate to use for applied risk assessment. Proposals are made for alternate ways to develop risk scales using the age-stratification method.

What Sexual Recidivism Rates Are Associated With Static-99R and Static-2002R Scores?

Empirical actuarial risk tools are routinely used to assess the recidivism risk of adult sexual offenders. Compared with other forms of risk assessment, one advantage of actuarial risk tools is that they provide recidivism rate estimates. Previous research, however, suggests that there is considerable variability in the recidivism rates associated with the most commonly used sexual offender risk assessment tools (Static-99/R, Static-2002/R). The current study examined the extent to which the variability in the recidivism rates across 21 Static-99R studies (N = 8,805) corresponded to the normative groups proposed by the STATIC development group (routine, treatment, high risk/high need). We found strong evidence that routine (i.e., complete) samples were, on average, less likely to reoffend with a sexual offense than offenders in the high-risk/high-need samples (i.e., those explicitly preselected on risk-relevant variables external to STATIC scales). The differences between routine/complete and high-risk/high-need samples, however, were only consistently observed for offenders with low or moderate scores; for offenders with high STATIC scores, the 5-year sexual recidivism rates for these two groups were not meaningfully different. There was only limited evidence to support treatment samples as a distinct sample type; consequently, the use of separate normative tables for treatment samples is not recommended. The current results reinforce the value of regularly updating the norms for empirical actuarial risk tools. Options are discussed on how STATIC scores could be used to inform recidivism rates estimates in applied assessments.

Sadism and Violent Reoffending in Sexual Offenders

A diagnosis of sadism in sexual offenders is commonly regarded as indicative of high risk for violent reoffending. The purpose of the current two studies was to evaluate whether sadism is indeed associated with higher rates of violent (including sexual) reoffending. In Study 1 (meta-analysis), the rate of violent and sexual recidivism was assessed across seven samples of male sex offenders (total N = 2,169) as a function of diagnoses of sexual sadism. In Study 2 (N = 768) the outcome (violent recidivism yes/no) was regressed on sadism, along with behavioral indicators of sexually sadistic offending, and scores from violence risk assessment instruments. In Study 1 (meta-analysis), the overall risk of sadists compared with nonsadists with respect to violent (including sexual contact) reoffending was slightly elevated (by a factor of 1.18), yet not significantly increased. Similarly, the risk of sexual reoffending among sadists was slightly, but not significantly, higher than among nonsadists (factor 1.38). According to Study 2, only a measure of sadistic behavior, not the clinical diagnosis, was associated with violent reoffending. This association, however, was not present once age and customary risk assessment instruments for violence risk were included in the regression. A clinical diagnosis of sexual sadism and behavioral measures of sadism are related to the risk of violent reoffending in sexual offenders. These associations, however, are weak and do not hold once variables relevant for the prediction of violence are controlled for. At the individual level, the risk for future violence in sadists can therefore be adequately described by customary risk assessment instruments.

Sex offender risk assessment: A reexamination of the coffee can study

There exists a valid concern among forensic psychology scholars that measures intended for sexual offenders have plateaued in their predictive accuracy. The current study examined this concern using the "coffee can" methodology of Kroner, Mills, and Reddon (2005). The Iowa Sex Offender Risk Assessment (ISORA8), Level of Service Inventory - Revised (LSI-R), and Static-99R were used to predict various methods of detected recidivism (general, sexual, and violent recidivism) as compared to three randomly generated measures and a weighted generated measure. Independent correlation and receiver operating characteristic comparisons found that in almost all cases, generated measures outperformed established measures. Analyses indicated that the current conceptualization of risk for sexual offenders has not been thoroughly integrated into established measures. Current measures appear incomplete, but have a clear and empirically-noted ability to improve.

Construction and Validation of SRA-FV Need Assessment

This article describes the construction and testing of a newly designed instrument to assess psychological factors associated with increased rates of sexual recidivism. The new instrument (Structured Risk Assessment-Forensic Version or SRA-FV) was based on previous research using the SRA framework. This article describes the results of testing SRA-FV with a large sample (N = 566) of sexual offenders being evaluated for an early civil commitment program. SRA-FV was found to significantly predict sexual recidivism for both child molesters and rapists and to have incremental predictive value relative to two widely used static actuarial instruments (Static-99R; Risk Matrix 2000/S).

Two clusters of child molesters based on impulsiveness

OBJECTIVE

High impulsiveness is a general problem that affects most criminal offenders and is associated with greater recidivism risk. A cluster analysis of impulsiveness measured by the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale - Version 11 (BIS-11) was performed on a sample of hands-on child molesters.

METHODS

The sample consisted of 208 child molesters enrolled in two different sectional studies carried out in São Paulo, Brazil. Using three factors from the BIS-11, a k-means cluster analysis was performed using the average silhouette width to determine cluster number. Direct logistic regression was performed to analyze the association of criminological and clinical features with the resulting clusters.

RESULTS

Two clusters were delineated. The cluster characterized by higher impulsiveness showed higher scores on the Sexual Screening for Pedophilic Interests (SSPI), Static-99, and Sexual Addiction Screening Test.

CONCLUSIONS

Given that child molesters are an extremely heterogeneous population, the "number of victims" item of the SSPI should call attention to those offenders with the highest motor, attentional, and non-planning impulsiveness. Our findings could have implications in terms of differences in therapeutic management for these two groups, with the most impulsive cluster benefitting from psychosocial strategies combined with pharmacological interventions.

Risk levels, treatment duration, and drop out in a clinically composed outpatient sex offender treatment group

Previous research in the Netherlands documented that clinical judgment may yield a substantial amount of treatment referrals for sexual offenders that are inconsistent with actuarial risk assessment and the Risk Need Responsivity (RNR) principles. The present study tested the risk level distribution of a high-intensity, open-format outpatient treatment group. Eighty patients were enrolled during a 620-week period, and their STATIC-99R risk levels were retrospectively determined. The distribution of risk levels in this treatment group did not differ from the distribution of a representative sample of sex offenders referred to outpatient treatment in the Netherlands between 1996 and 2002 (n = 145), nor from the combined Canadian samples (n = 2011) used to assess STATIC-99R normative percentile. These findings suggest that no selection in terms of actuarial risk level occurred between conviction and treatment, leading to over-inclusion of low risk offenders in this high-intensity outpatient treatment group. It is concluded that the standard use of structured risk assessment for the compilation of treatment groups may improve both the effectiveness and efficiency of sex offender treatment in the Netherlands.

Appraising the risk matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool

This critical appraisal explores the reliability and validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 static sex offender risk assessment tool that is widely used in the United Kingdom. The Risk Matrix 2000 has to some extent been empirically validated for use with adult male sex offenders; however, this review highlights that further research into the validity of this static tool with sex offender subgroups or types is necessary in order to improve practical utility. The Risk Matrix 2000 relies on static risk predictors, thus it is limited in scope. This article argues that the addition of dynamic items that have been shown to be predictive of sexual recidivism would further enhance the tool. The paper argues that adding dynamic risk items would fit better with a rehabilitative approach to sex offender risk management and assessment. This would also provide a means by which to effectively plan sex offender treatment and evaluate individual offenders' progress in treatment; however, difficulties remain in identifying and assessing dynamic risk factors of sexual offending and so further research is required.

Protective strengths, risk, and recidivism in a sample of known sexual offenders

The relationship between protective strengths and risk, as assessed by the Inventory of Offender Risk, Needs, and Strengths, was examined with respect to the recidivism rate and type of reoffense in a sample of 110 adult males incarcerated for sexual offenses. The sample included offenders who were completing a prison-based sexual offense treatment program during the last 18 months of their incarceration. Approximately 40% of the sample recidivated in some way, including 6% sexually, within the 6-year follow-up time. Self-perceived protective strengths were significantly valid predictors for sexual, violent, and general recidivism. In regression analyses, protective strengths accounted for a unique portion of the variance in sexual recidivism while controlling for overall risk. Consistent with research on the importance of protective strengths with other offender types, the continued study and inclusion of protective strengths in the assessment and treatment of sexual offenders is warranted.

Jurors report that risk measure scores matter in sexually violent predator trials, but that other factors matter more

After deliberating to a verdict, jurors (N = 462) from 40 sexually violent predator (SVP) trials completed a questionnaire asking them to rate the extent to which risk measure scores, diagnoses, expert witness testimony, and offender characteristics described during the trials influenced their commitment decisions. Jurors reported that offenders' sexual offending history, failure to change, and lack of remorse had the strongest influence on their commitment decisions. They reported that testimony about risk instrument scores (e.g., Static-99) and psychopathy had less influence on their decisions, but those who did report being influenced by instrument results were especially likely to view the offender as being at a high risk for reoffending. Overall, findings suggest that SVP jurors view risk measure results as important, but not as important as other offender, offense, and testimony characteristics, including some that have limited relevance to recidivism risk. Thus, findings also suggest that experts may need to better educate jurors regarding factors that do and do not relate to recidivism risk.

An examination of violence risk communication in practice using a structured professional judgment framework

The increased use of violence risk assessment tools in professional practice has sparked the development of best-practice guidelines for communicating about violence risk. The present study examined 166 pre-sentence reports, authored by clinicians and probation officers, to determine the extent to which they are consistent with those guidelines. We examined the frequency with which reports contained information about five topics: the presence of risk factors; the relevance of risk factors; scenarios of future violence; recommended management strategies; and summary risk judgments. Analyses revealed that the topics addressed most frequently in reports were the presence of risk factors and recommended management strategies, but none of the five topics was addressed consistently, completely, or clearly in reports. This was especially the case for probation reports. The findings highlight the need to improve practice through better implementation of guidelines for risk communication. Also needed is research on the extent to which information in risk communications is comprehended, accepted, and used by various stakeholder groups.

Latent Constructs of the Static-99R and Static-2002R

The most commonly used risk assessment tools for predicting sexual violence focus almost exclusively on static, historical factors (e.g., characteristics of prior offences). Consequently, they are assumed to be unable to directly inform the selection of treatment targets or evaluate change. In this article, we argue that this limitation can be mitigated by using latent variable models as a framework to link historical risk factors to the psychological characteristics of offenders. Accordingly, we conducted a factor analysis of the 13 nonredundant items from the two most commonly used risk tools for sexual offenders (Static-99R and Static-2002R) to identify the psychological information contained in these tools. Three factors were identified: (a) persistence/paraphilia, a construct related to sexual criminality, especially of the pedophilic type; (b) youthful stranger aggression, a construct centered on young age and offence seriousness; and (c) general criminality, a construct that reflected the diversity and magnitude of criminal careers. These constructs predicted sexual recidivism with similar accuracy, but only youthful stranger aggression and general criminality predicted nonsexual recidivism. These results indicate that risk tools for sexual violence are multidimensional, and support a shift from a focus on atheoretical risk markers to the assessment of psychologically meaningful constructs.

The DAPP-SF as a screener for personality disorder in a forensic setting

Studies on the Dimensional Assessment of Personality Pathology-Short Form (DAPP-SF) have shown its ability to identify treatment-seeking patients with personality disorders. This study focuses on its screening potential for personality disorder in 89 criminal suspects (77 men, 12 women; M age = 37.0 years) undergoing residential pretrial psychological assessments in a high-security setting. It was expected that Structured Interview for DSM-IV Personality (SIDP-IV) criteria met for personality disorder(s) would be associated with higher DAPP-SF scores. A floor effect was found in DAPP-SF scores: The forensic population reported less personality pathology than the general population. Only moderate associations between DAPP-SF and SIDP-IV outcome were found. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that some DAPP-SF subscales did not exceed chance level in their ability to screen for personality disorders. It is concluded that the DAPP-SF has limited usefulness as a screener for personality disorders in a forensic pretrial setting. Alternative forensic screening instruments are presented.

An examination of the interrater reliability between practitioners and researchers on the static-99

Many studies have validated the psychometric properties of the Static-99, the most widely used measure of sexual offender recidivism risk. However much of this research relied on instrument coding completed by well-trained researchers. This study is the first to examine the interrater reliability (IRR) of the Static-99 between practitioners in the field and researchers. Using archival data from a sample of 1,973 formerly incarcerated sex offenders, field raters' scores on the Static-99 were compared with those of researchers. Overall, clinicians and researchers had excellent IRR on Static-99 total scores, with IRR coefficients ranging from "substantial" to "outstanding" for the individual 10 items of the scale. The most common causes of discrepancies were coding manual errors, followed by item subjectivity, inaccurate item scoring, and calculation errors. These results offer important data with regard to the frequency and perceived nature of scoring errors.

Die Einschätzung des Rückfallrisikos bei sexuell auffälligen Kindern und Jugendlichen anhand standardisierter Prognoseinstrumente

In der vorliegenden Untersuchung wurde überprüft, ob standardisierte Prognoseinstrumente in der Lage sind, erneute Auffälligkeiten in einer Stichprobe von sexuell auffällig gewordenen Kindern und Jugendlichen (N = 80; als Einschlusskriterium musste keine Verurteilung erfolgt sein) vorherzusagen. Eingesetzt wurden die international als etabliert geltenden Verfahren Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR) und Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II). Die Ergebnisse der vorliegenden Studie zeigen, dass die ursprünglich für junge bzw. jugendliche Sexualstraftäter entwickelten Instrumente auch bei einer Stichprobe sexuell auffälliger Minderjähriger in der Lage sein können, erneute auffällige Handlungen vorherzusagen. Dies gelang allerdings lediglich im Hinblick auf die allgemeine und die gewalttätige Auffälligkeit, während der Nachweis der prädiktiven Validität für erneute sexuelle Auffälligkeiten nicht gelang.

High-risk sex offenders may not be high risk forever

This study examined the extent to which sexual offenders present an enduring risk for sexual recidivism over a 20-year follow-up period. Using an aggregated sample of 7,740 sexual offenders from 21 samples, the yearly recidivism rates were calculated using survival analysis. Overall, the risk of sexual recidivism was highest during the first few years after release, and decreased substantially the longer individuals remained sex offense-free in the community. This pattern was particularly strong for the high-risk sexual offenders (defined by Static-99R scores). Whereas the 5-year sexual recidivism rate for high-risk sex offenders was 22% from the time of release, this rate decreased to 4.2% for the offenders in the same static risk category who remained offense-free in the community for 10 years. The recidivism rates of the low-risk offenders were consistently low (1%-5%) for all time periods. The results suggest that offense history is a valid, but time-dependent, indicator of the propensity to sexually reoffend. Further research is needed to explain the substantial rate of desistance by high-risk sexual offenders.

A multimodal examination of sexual interest in children: a comparison of sex offenders and nonsex offenders

Research and theoretical models have consistently identified sexual interest in children as a key factor involved in child sexual offending. However, there is only moderate agreement in the diagnosis of pedophilia and different assessment methods identify different offenders as pedophiles. The current study examined the discriminative and convergent validity of three different measures of sexual interest in children. Participants included sex offenders and nonsex offenders recruited from federal prisons (i.e., offenders serving sentences of more than 2 years) in Ontario, Canada. Child molesters' responses (n = 35) were not significantly different from nonsex offenders (n = 21) on an implicit measure of sexual interest in children (Sexual Attraction to Children Implicit Association Test [SAC-IAT] d = 0.44, 95% CI [-0.11, 0.99]), but differed on the self-report (Sexual Interest Profiling System; d = 0.83, 95% CI [0.27, 1.39]) and viewing time (d = 1.15, 95% CI [0.54, 1.75]) measures. Findings did not provide clear support for the superiority of a multimodal approach, possibly due to the relatively small sample. More often than not, convergence between the three measures was observed (n = 74). Findings from the present study are an important step toward understanding the relationship between different measures of sexual interest in children and establishing their validity.

Predicting Recidivism in Sex Offenders With the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS)

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) was capable of predicting recidivism in 322 male sex offenders released from prison-based sex offender programs in a Midwestern state. The Static-99R and PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT), Reactive (R), and Entitlement (En) scores all correlated significantly with general recidivism, the Static-99R correlated significantly with violent recidivism, and the Static-99R score and PICTS GCT, Proactive (P), and En scores correlated significantly with failure to register as a sex offender (FTR) recidivism. Area under the curve effect size estimates varied from small to large, and Cox regression analyses revealed that the PICTS En score achieved incremental validity relative to the Static-99R in predicting general recidivism and the PICTS GCT, P, and En scores achieved incremental validity relative to the Static-99R in predicting FTR recidivism. It is speculated that the PICTS in general and the En scale in particular may have utility in risk management and treatment planning for sex offenders by virtue of their focus on antisocial thinking.

Circles South East: the first 10 years 2002-2012

This article describes the first 10 years of the implementation of Circles of Support and Accountability (Circles) in the management of sexual offenders in South-East England by Circles South East (CSE). The Circles of 71 core members are reviewed in detail, with reference to demographic data, offense and sentencing histories, risk assessment data, and considerations regarding Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangements. A group of 71 comparison subjects who were referred to CSE and deemed suitable for but did not receive the service was identified. Follow-up behaviors of both groups are examined (including all forms of reconviction, breach of orders, and prison recall). Over a comparable follow-up period of 55 months, the incidence of violent and contact sexual reconviction in the comparison group was significantly higher than for the Circles cohort. Comparisons are made between expected and actual levels of sexual reconviction, with the Circles cohort showing lower than expected rate of sexual reconviction but not to a statistically significant degree.

Jurors' views on the value and objectivity of mental health experts testifying in sexually violent predator trials

Although psychologists and psychiatrists often testify in court, we know relatively little about the extent to which jurors value the testimony they hear from these experts. We surveyed 161 jurors who rendered opinions in 14 sex offender civil commitment trials after hearing testimony from psychologists and psychiatrists serving as expert witnesses. Most jurors reported that the experts they heard testify were honest, and they tended to attribute disagreements among experts to case complexity, as opposed to adversarial allegiance or bias. Most reported that hearing from the experts helped them make better decisions and that experts using risk assessment instruments could make more accurate predictions than those who did not. Jurors were, however, more skeptical about the ability of experts to accurately predict recidivism when they heard testimony from both prosecution and defense experts. Findings suggest that jurors value risk assessment testimony from experts, but that experts must think carefully about how to best make risk assessment instrument results accessible to jurors.

Does field reliability for Static-99 scores decrease as scores increase?

This study examined the field reliability of Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) scores among 21,983 sex offenders and focused on whether rater agreement decreased as scores increased. As expected, agreement was lowest for high-scoring offenders. Initial and most recent Static-99 scores were identical for only about 40% of offenders who had been assigned a score of 6 during their initial evaluations, but for more than 60% of offenders who had been assigned a score of 2 or lower. In addition, the size of the difference between scores increased as scores increased, with pairs of scores differing by 2 or more points for about 30% of offenders scoring in the high-risk range. Because evaluators and systems use high Static-99 scores to identify sexual offenders who may require intensive supervision or even postrelease civil commitment, it is important to recognize that there may be more measurement error for high scores than low scores and to consider adopting procedures for minimizing or accounting for measurement error. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Development of Vermont assessment of sex offender risk-2 (VASOR-2) reoffense risk scale

The present study aimed to revise the Vermont Assessment of Sex Offender Risk (VASOR) Reoffense Risk Scale, a commonly used sex offender risk assessment tool. The revised tool was named the VASOR-2. Among models tested to revise the scale, a logistic regression model showed the best balance between simplicity of use, goodness of fit, and internal validity (as tested with K-10 cross-validation), and maximized predictive accuracy. Predictive accuracy was tested using four meta-analytically combined data sets drawn from Canada and Vermont (N = 1,581). At 5-year fixed follow-up, the predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism for VASOR-2 (AUC = .74) was similar to the VASOR (AUC = .71). The findings show the VASOR-2 is well calibrated with observed recidivism rates for all but the highest risk sex offenders. The instrument showed good interrater reliability (ICC = .88). An advantage of the VASOR-2 is that it has fewer items and simpler scoring instructions than the VASOR. Norms are presented for a contemporary, nonselected, routine sample of Vermont sex offenders (n = 887).

Specialization in and within sexual offending in England and Wales

Existing evidence suggests that offenders tend not to specialize in sexual offending in general but that there is some specialization in particular types of sexual offending. This study examined the sexual histories and reoffending of a large, national data set of offenders convicted of a sexual offense and managed in England and Wales by the National Offender Management Service (N = 14,804). The study found that specialization in sexual offending compared to nonsexual offending was most evident for offenders with convictions for accessing indecent images. We also found considerable evidence of specialization within sexual offending, most notably for noncontact offenders, especially again indecent images offenders. Crossover between sexual offense types was very rare for those with contact adult offenses and for noncontact offenders although those with child contact offenses sometimes crossed over to indecent images reoffending. If specialization within sexual offending exists, the use of single risk assessment instruments to predict all types of sexual recidivism may be less effective than previously assumed. A comparison of different prediction models indicated that some items presently used in one-size-fits-all risk tools to predict any sexual reoffending only effectively predict certain subtypes of sexual offending. Statistically there appear to be some potential benefits to creating specialist risk predictors for different subtypes of offending, but further work is needed to justify the implementation demands that would be caused by abandoning one-size-fits-all tools.

[Pedophilia: etiology, diagnostics and therapy]

Child sexual abuse is one of the most destructive events for healthy child development. Following psychiatric classification systems, pedophilia must be distinguished from child sexual abuse. Approximately only one half of all child abusers fulfill the diagnostic criteria for pedophilia which is defined as a persistent or dominating sexual preference for prepubescent children characterized by persistent thoughts, fantasies, urges, sexual arousal or behavior. This article describes the diagnostic criteria and potential differential diagnoses as well as epidemiological and etiological findings. From an etiological point of view multifactorial mechanisms are currently considered to be responsible especially genetic factors, learning theoretical and neurobiological factors. Psychotherapeutic and pharmaceutical treatment options will be discussed. According to the current state of knowledge cognitive-behavioral psychotherapy is the method of choice in the treatment of pedophilia and has demonstrated positive treatment effects in meta-analyses regarding relapse prevention. Medicinal treatment of pedophilia is only indicated for severe forms of pedophilia. Important aspects of risk management in the treatment of pedophilia and aspects which must be considered in the forensic psychiatric assessment are presented.

Direct and indirect measures of sexual maturity preferences differentiate subtypes of child sexual abusers

To aid risk assessment, management, and treatment planning it is essential to assess child sexual abusers' deviant sexual interests (DSI) and preferences (DSP) for sex with children. However, measurement of DSI/DSP is fraught with psychometric problems. In consequence, research interest has shifted to latency-based indirect measures as a measurement approach to complement self-report and physiological assessment. Utilizing the Explicit and Implicit Sexual Interest Profile (EISIP)-a multimethod approach consisting of self-report, viewing time, and Implicit Association Test (IAT) DSI/DSP measures-we replicated phallometric DSI/DSP differences between child sexual abuser subgroups in a sample of intrafamilial, extrafamilial, and child pornography offenders. DSI/DSP was associated with recidivism risk, offense-behavioral measures of pedophilic interest, and sexual fantasizing. It also negatively correlated with antisociality. Distinguishing between child sexual abuser subtypes and being related to recidivism risk, the EISIP is a useful tool for sexual offender assessments.

Community DSPD pilot services in South London: rates of reconviction and impact of supported housing on reducing recidivism

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of community services in reducing recidivism by men in the 'dangerous and severe personality disorder' framework--with personality disorder and at high risk of recidivism--is unknown.

AIMS

To conduct a preliminary examination of the characteristics and reconviction rates of male offenders with personality disorder accessing two South London community dangerous and severe personality disorder pilot outpatient services and to evaluate the role of supported housing for them.

METHODS

Reoffending outcomes of 107 high risk offenders with personality disorder were assessed using a cross-sectional cohort study design. Participants were allocated to outpatient only (non-residential) or outpatient with supported housing groups. Self-reported, collateral and criminal justice data and Offender Group Reconviction Scale III predictors of reoffending were used to describe the samples.

RESULTS

The overall reconviction rate over the entire study period was 11%. At 12 months following acceptance to the service, reoffending for the entire sample was significantly lower (5%) than mean Offender Group Reconviction Scale III scores predicted (51%). Multivariate analyses confirmed that those also in receipt of supportive housing were significantly less likely to reoffend than those without. Although there was no difference between groups in violent reconviction specifically, only five men in total reoffended violently.

CONCLUSIONS

Although findings appear promising, this was a naturalistic study. The sample size was small, but represented all men accepted into the two pilot services. Further evaluation of the role of supported housing and perhaps other details of community supervision should follow.

Correlates of emotional congruence with children in sexual offenders against children: a test of theoretical models in an incarcerated sample

Emotional congruence with children is a psychological construct theoretically involved in the etiology and maintenance of sexual offending against children. Research conducted to date has not examined the relationship between emotional congruence with children and other psychological meaningful risk factors for sexual offending against children. The current study derived potential correlates of emotional congruence with children from the published literature and proposed three models of emotional congruence with children that contain relatively unique sets of correlates: the blockage, sexual deviance, and psychological immaturity models. Using Area under the Curve analysis, we assessed the relationship between emotional congruence with children and offense characteristics, victim demographics, and psychologically meaningful risk factors in a sample of incarcerated sexual offenders against children (n=221). The sexual deviance model received the most support: emotional congruence with children was significantly associated with deviant sexual interests, sexual self-regulation problems, and cognition that condones and supports child molestation. The blockage model received partial support, and the immaturity model received the least support. Based on the results, we propose a set of further predictions regarding the relationships between emotional congruence with children and other psychologically meaningful risk factors to be examined in future research.

Pedophilic sexual interests and psychopathy in child sexual abusers working with children

Research has identified stable and dynamic characteristics in child sexual abusers working with children (CSA-W) that may distinguish them from other child sexual abusers (CSA). However, in previous research CSA-W have usually been included in the group of extra-familial CSA (CSA-E). Two hundred and forty-eight forensic-sexological reports about CSA conducted by the Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders in the Austrian Prison System were evaluated retrospectively. One hundred and nineteen intra-familial CSA (CSA-I), 66 CSA-E, and 38 CSA-W were compared with regard to static risk factors, indicators of psychopathy, and pedophilic sexual interests. CSA-E had the highest risk of recidivism as measured by the Static-99 total score, followed by CSA-W. Furthermore, CSA-E had more previous convictions than CSA-W. Both CSA-E and CSA-I had higher total scores on the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised than CSA-W. CSA-W had the highest prevalence of pedophilia diagnoses according to DSM-IV-TR criteria, as well as the highest rate of pedophilia with an orientation toward male children, and the highest frequency of male victims. CSA-W also had the highest total scores in the Screening Scale for Pedophilic Interests. CSA-W seem to constitute a group with particular risk factors and criminogenic needs, that is, they show more indicators of pedophilic sexual interests but less general antisociality and psychopathy, and would thus seem to be distinguishable from other CSA. Future research should focus in particular on evaluating differences in the grooming strategies used by CSA-W to commit and disclose child sexual abuse, as well as on the resources of this particular offender group.

Child sexual abuse in the context of the Roman Catholic Church: a review of literature from 1981-2013

Child sexual abuse in the Catholic Church has been increasingly recognized as a problem not limited to individual institutions. Recent inquiry commission reports provide substantial information on offense dynamics, but their conclusions have not been synthesized with empirical research to date. The aim of this systematic literature review was to bring together key findings and identify gaps in the evidence base. The three main focus points were (a) types of publications and methodology used, (b) frequency information on child sexual abuse in the Catholic Church, (c) individual factors in offending, and (d) institutional factors in offending. It was found that reports, legal assessments, and research on child sexual abuse within the Catholic Church provide extensive descriptive and qualitative information for five different countries. This includes individual psychological factors (static risk predictors, multiple trajectories) and institutional factors (opportunity, social dynamics) as well as prevalence rates illustrating a high "dark figure" of child sexual abuse.

Psychopathy and Violent Reoffending in German-Speaking Countries

The Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) and its screening version, the PCL:SV, are clinical assessment instruments for the observer rating of psychopathic personality in offenders. Given the link between PCL-R/SV total scores and violent offending, these instruments have been incorporated into various risk assessment protocols in forensic psychology. The purpose of the present study was to examine the predictive validity of the PCL-R/SV instruments in German-speaking countries. We collated data from 11 published studies (total-N = 2,412 offenders). Based on suitable diagnostic cutscores for prototypical psychopathy, the proportions of true-positive and false-positive cases with respect to violent reoffending were compared. Overall, sensitivity was estimated at 27% and specificity at 88% for the PCL-R (or at 28% and 90% for the PCL:SV, respectively). At critical score levels, the odds for violent offense recidivism were more than two times higher than at subcritical levels for both instruments. A decision-theory analysis suggested that the implicit utility of false-positive risk assessments was about halfway between the minimal utility of false-negative assessments and the maximal utility of correct assessments. Both the PCL-R and its screening version are viable instruments for the prediction of violent offense recidivism in German-speaking countries.

Variation in Criminal Justice Policy-Making

Variation in Sex Offender Registration and Community Notification (SORCN) policies may suggest differences in public fears of sexual crimes as well as differences in state-level policy-making. This study explored the standardization of SORCN policies across a sample of five midwestern states. A thematic content analysis showed that states varied in how registrants were defined, what information was selected for public notification, and how sex offender laws are maintained. A typology of revisions emerged, which may inform our understanding about policy-making. Ultimately, existing research provides limited explanations for these results, serving as an impetus for future research on context and process of criminal justice policy change.

An exploration of crossover sexual offending

Studies have produced equivocal findings regarding whether sex offenders are stable in their choice of victims. Indeed, it remains unclear whether a sex offender's subsequent victims are typically of the same gender, age range, and victim-perpetrator relationship as that of the initial victim. Although some differences may be attributed to methodological disparities, others are not. This study sought to clarify this question by examining the tendency of sex offenders to switch from one type of victim to another, both within an index offense and across offenses and all victims. Archival records of 789 incarcerated sex offenders were examined. Of those offenders who had multiple victims at the index offense (n = 279), 13% had victims of both genders, 14% had victims in different age categories (child, adolescent, and adult), and 13% had varying relationships with the victims (i.e., family member, acquaintance, or stranger). When the records of those with past sexual convictions were examined (n = 208), 20% of offenders had a prior victim of a different gender; 40% crossed over across age categories, and 48% of the repeat offenders had varying relationships with the victim across convictions. Offenders who had both male and female victims and offenders who had victims of varied relationship status across crimes had higher Static-99 risk scores than offenders who were more stable with regard to victim selection. These findings are compared to those of previous studies, focusing on how these results add clarity to a previous literature whose conclusions were challenged by the use of disparate sampling and research methodologies.

Age and type of onset of offending: results from a sample of male sexual offenders referred for civil commitment

Sexual abuse research suggests that sexual offending is usually preceded by nonsexual offending, but little else is known or understood about the specific kinds of nonsexual crimes or patterns of crime that occur before serious sexual offending. The present study examined the official criminal histories of 751 men convicted of sexual offenses and referred to the Massachusetts Treatment Center for civil commitment. This relatively serious and chronic sample was arranged and compared with the type of their first officially recorded offense. Those whose first official charge was for a sexual offense ("sexual onset") were compared with nonsexual "violent onset" and "property onset" offenders. Important differences were detected between groups. Those with a property onset experienced more criminological risk factors and reflected the characteristics typical of chronic offenders. These results indicate that a more dedicated understanding of the beginning of one's criminal career is a beneficial direction for future study.

Quantifying the relative risk of sex offenders: risk ratios for static-99R

Given the widespread use of empirical actuarial risk tools in corrections and forensic mental health, it is important that evaluators and decision makers understand how scores relate to recidivism risk. In the current study, we found strong evidence for a relative risk interpretation of Static-99R scores using 8 samples from Canada, United Kingdom, and Western Europe (N = 4,037 sex offenders). Each increase in Static-99R score was associated with a stable and consistent increase in relative risk (as measured by an odds ratio or hazard ratio of approximately 1.4). Hazard ratios from Cox regression were used to calculate risk ratios that can be reported for Static-99R. We recommend that evaluators consider risk ratios as a useful, nonarbitrary metric for quantifying and communicating risk information. To avoid misinterpretation, however, risk ratios should be presented with recidivism base rates.

Are Forensic Experts Biased by the Side That Retained Them?

How objective are forensic experts when they are retained by one of the opposing sides in an adversarial legal proceeding? Despite long-standing concerns from within the legal system, little is known about whether experts can provide opinions unbiased by the side that retained them. In this experiment, we paid 108 forensic psychologists and psychiatrists to review the same offender case files, but deceived some to believe that they were consulting for the defense and some to believe that they were consulting for the prosecution. Participants scored each offender on two commonly used, well-researched risk-assessment instruments. Those who believed they were working for the prosecution tended to assign higher risk scores to offenders, whereas those who believed they were working for the defense tended to assign lower risk scores to the same offenders; the effect sizes ( d) ranged up to 0.85. The results provide strong evidence of an allegiance effect among some forensic experts in adversarial legal proceedings.