Marine reserves can mitigate and promote adaptation to climate change

Co-Management as a Successful Strategy for Marine Conservation

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are a primary tool for conserving marine biodiversity. The literature presents a scattered picture regarding the extent to which co-management can be considered valuable. In this study we examine, what conditions are for co-management to make a contribution to conserving marine ecosystems (e.g., stopping coral bleaching and safeguarding fish populations). By combining data on MPA management practices with a novel source of global biodata collected by citizens (ReefCheck), we demonstrate that if co-management is part of a formal governmental strategy, coral reefs show up to 86% fewer bleached colonies and up to 12.2 times larger fish populations than co-managed MPAs lacking formalized governmental support.

Protected areas buffer against harvest selection and rebuild phenotypic complexity

Harvest mortality typically truncates the harvested species' size structure, thereby reducing phenotypic complexity, which can lead to reduced population productivity, increased population variability, and selection on an array of life history traits that can further alter these demographic processes. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a potential tool to protect older, larger individuals and therefore mitigate such ecological and evolutionary effects of harvest, depending on the degree of connectivity among areas. Such MPA protection relies on a shift in size-dependent mortality, the measurement of which can therefore serve as an early indicator of whether MPAs might achieve the desired longer-term ecological and evolutionary responses. We directly measured MPA effects on size-selective mortality and associated size structure using mark-recapture data on European lobster (Homarus gammarus) collected at three MPA-control area pairs in southern Norway during one decade (n = 5,943). Mark-recapture modeling, accounting for variation in recapture probabilities, revealed (1) that annual mean survival was higher inside MPAs (0.592) vs. control areas (0.298) and (2) that significant negative relationships between survival and body size occurred at the control areas but not in the MPAs, where the effect of body size was predominantly positive. Additionally, we found (3) that mean and maximum body size increased over time inside MPAs but not in control areas. Overall, our results suggest that MPAs can rebuild phenotypic complexity (i.e., size structure) and provide protection from harvest selection.

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Mediterranean Shallow Coastal Fish Communities along a Gradient of Marine Protection

The importance of habitat factors in designing marine reserves and evaluating their performance over time has been regularly documented. Over three biennial sampling periods, we examined the effects of vegetated coverage and habitat diversity (i.e., patchiness) on fish density, community composition, and species-specific patterns along a gradient of protection from harvest in the shallow Spanish southern Mediterranean, including portions of the Tabarca marine reserve. With the exception of two herbivores (Sarpa salpa and Symphodus tinca), vegetated cover did not significantly affect fish densities, while habitat diversity was an influential factor across all three sampling periods. Overall, fish density was more positively associated with more continuous vegetated or unvegetated habitats, and was greatest in areas of highest protection (Tabarca II – Isla Nao site). These patterns were usually observed for four abundant fish species (Boops boops, Chromis chromis, Oblada melanura, and S. salpa). Fish community composition was distinct in the most protected portion of the Tabarca reserve, where it was also most stable. Our findings align with previous investigations of the Tabarca reserve and its surrounding areas, and demonstrate its continued effectiveness in conserving fish biomass and habitat. Together with effective management, marine reserves can facilitate greater species abundance, more stable biological communities, and resilient ecosystems.

Microbial plankton configuration in the epipelagic realm from the Beagle Channel to the Burdwood Bank, a Marine Protected Area in Sub-Antarctic waters

Marine microbial plankton hold high structural and functional diversity, however, high-resolution data are lacking in a large part of the Global Ocean, such as in subpolar areas of the SW Atlantic. The Burdwood Bank (BB) is a submerged plateau (average depth 100 m) that constitutes the westernmost segment of the North Scotia Ridge (54°-55°S; 56°-62°W). The BB hosts rich benthic biodiversity in low chlorophyll waters of the southern Patagonian Shelf, Argentina, declared Namuncurá Marine Protected Area (NMPA) in 2013. So far, the pelagic microorganisms above the bank have not been described. During austral summer 2016, we assessed the microbial plankton (0.2-200 μm cell size) biomass and their taxonomical and functional diversity along a longitudinal transect (54.2-55.3°S, 58-68°W) from the Beagle Channel (BC) to the BB, characterized by contrasting hydrography. Results displayed a marked zonation in the composition and structure of the microbial communities. The biomass of phytoplankton >5 μm was 28 times higher in the BC, attributed mainly to large diatom blooms, than in oceanic waters above the BB, where the small coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi and flagellates <10 μm dominated. In turn, the biomass of microheterotrophs above the BB doubled the biomass in the BC due to large ciliates. Notably, toxic phytoplankton species and their phycotoxins were detected, in particular high abundance of Dinophysis acuminata and pectenotoxins above the bank, highlighting their presence in open subpolar regions. Picophytoplankton (<2 μm), including Synechococcus and picoeukaryotes, were remarkably important above the BB, both at surface and deep waters (up to 150 m). Their biomass surpassed by 5 times that of phytoplankton > 5 μm, emphasizing the importance of small-sized phytoplankton in low chlorophyll waters. The homogeneous water column and high retention above the bank seem to favor the development of abundant picophytoplankton and microzooplankton communities. Overall, our findings unfold the plankton configuration in the Southern Patagonian Shelf, ascribed as a sink for anthropogenic CO2, and highlight the diverse ecological traits that microorganisms develop to adjust their yield to changing conditions.

Progress towards a representative network of Southern Ocean protected areas

Global threats to ocean biodiversity have generated a worldwide movement to take actions to improve conservation and management. Several international initiatives have recommended the adoption of marine protected areas (MPAs) in national and international waters. National governments and the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources have successfully adopted multiple MPAs in the Southern Ocean despite the challenging nature of establishing MPAs in international waters. But are these MPAs representative of Southern Ocean biodiversity? Here we answer this question for both existing and proposed Antarctic MPAs, using benthic and pelagic regionalizations as a proxy for biodiversity. Currently about 11.98% of the Southern Ocean is protected in MPAs, with 4.61% being encompassed by no-take areas. While this is a relatively large proportion of protection when compared to other international waters, current Antarctic MPAs are not representative of the full range of benthic and pelagic ecoregions. Implementing additional protected areas, including those currently under negotiation, would encompass almost 22% of the Southern Ocean. It would also substantially improve representation with 17 benthic and pelagic ecoregions (out of 23 and 19, respectively) achieving at least 10% representation.

Benthic ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change

The Southern Ocean (SO) is among the regions on Earth that are undergoing regionally the fastest environmental changes. The unique ecological features of its marine life make it particularly vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change. A network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has started to be implemented in the SO to protect marine ecosystems. However, considering future predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the relevance of current, static, MPAs may be questioned under future scenarios. In this context, the ecoregionalization approach can prove promising in identifying well-delimited regions of common species composition and environmental settings. These so-called ecoregions are expected to show similar biotic responses to environmental changes and can be used to define priority areas for the designation of new MPAs and the update of their current delimitation. In the present work, a benthic ecoregionalization of the entire SO is proposed for the first time based on abiotic environmental parameters and the distribution of echinoid fauna, a diversified and common member of Antarctic benthic ecosystems. A novel two-step approach was developed combining species distribution modeling with Random Forest and Gaussian Mixture modeling from species probabilities to define current ecoregions and predict future ecoregions under IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The ecological representativity of current and proposed MPAs of the SO is discussed with regard to the modeled benthic ecoregions. In all, 12 benthic ecoregions were determined under present conditions, they are representative of major biogeographic patterns already described. Our results show that the most dramatic changes can be expected along the Antarctic Peninsula, in East Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic islands under both IPCC scenarios. Our results advocate for a dynamic definition of MPAs, they also argue for improving the representativity of Antarctic ecoregions in proposed MPAs and support current proposals of Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources for the creation of Antarctic MPAs.

Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change^1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Impact of two of the world's largest protected areas on longline fishery catch rates

Two of the largest protected areas on earth are U.S. National Monuments in the Pacific Ocean. Numerous claims have been made about the impacts of these protected areas on the fishing industry, but there has been no ex post empirical evaluation of their effects. We use administrative data documenting individual fishing events to evaluate the economic impact of the expansion of these two monuments on the Hawaii longline fishing fleet. Surprisingly, catch and catch-per-unit-effort are higher since the expansions began. To disentangle the causal effect of the expansions from confounding factors, we use unaffected control fisheries to perform a difference-in-differences analysis. We find that the monument expansions had little, if any, negative impacts on the fishing industry, corroborating ecological models that have predicted minimal impacts from closing large parts of the Pacific Ocean to fishing.

A high biodiversity mitigates the impact of ocean acidification on hard-bottom ecosystems

Biodiversity loss and climate change simultaneously threaten marine ecosystems, yet their interactions remain largely unknown. Ocean acidification severely affects a wide variety of marine organisms and recent studies have predicted major impacts at the pH conditions expected for 2100. However, despite the renowned interdependence between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, the hypothesis that the species’ response to ocean acidification could differ based on the biodiversity of the natural multispecies assemblages in which they live remains untested. Here, using experimentally controlled conditions, we investigated the impact of acidification on key habitat-forming organisms (including corals, sponges and macroalgae) and associated microbes in hard-bottom assemblages characterised by different biodiversity levels. Our results indicate that, at higher biodiversity, the impact of acidification on otherwise highly vulnerable key organisms can be reduced by 50 to >90%, depending on the species. Here we show that such a positive effect of a higher biodiversity can be associated with higher availability of food resources and healthy microbe-host associations, overall increasing host resistance to acidification, while contrasting harmful outbreaks of opportunistic microbes. Given the climate change scenarios predicted for the future, we conclude that biodiversity conservation of hard-bottom ecosystems is fundamental also for mitigating the impacts of ocean acidification.

Ecological variables for developing a global deep-ocean monitoring and conservation strategy

The deep sea (>200 m depth) encompasses >95% of the world's ocean volume and represents the largest and least explored biome on Earth (<0.0001% of ocean surface), yet is increasingly under threat from multiple direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures. Our ability to preserve both benthic and pelagic deep-sea ecosystems depends upon effective ecosystem-based management strategies and monitoring based on widely agreed deep-sea ecological variables. Here, we identify a set of deep-sea essential ecological variables among five scientific areas of the deep ocean: (1) biodiversity; (2) ecosystem functions; (3) impacts and risk assessment; (4) climate change, adaptation and evolution; and (5) ecosystem conservation. Conducting an expert elicitation (1,155 deep-sea scientists consulted and 112 respondents), our analysis indicates a wide consensus amongst deep-sea experts that monitoring should prioritize large organisms (that is, macro- and megafauna) living in deep waters and in benthic habitats, whereas monitoring of ecosystem functioning should focus on trophic structure and biomass production. Habitat degradation and recovery rates are identified as crucial features for monitoring deep-sea ecosystem health, while global climate change will likely shift bathymetric distributions and cause local extinction in deep-sea species. Finally, deep-sea conservation efforts should focus primarily on vulnerable marine ecosystems and habitat-forming species. Deep-sea observation efforts that prioritize these variables will help to support the implementation of effective management strategies on a global scale.

Benthic-based contributions to climate change mitigation and adaptation

Innovative solutions to improve the condition and resilience of ecosystems are needed to address societal challenges and pave the way towards a climate-resilient future. Nature-based solutions offer the potential to protect, sustainably manage and restore natural or modified ecosystems while providing multiple other benefits for health, the economy, society and the environment. However, the implementation of nature-based solutions stems from a discourse that is almost exclusively derived from a terrestrial and urban context and assumes that risk reduction is resolved locally. We argue that this position ignores the importance of complex ecological interactions across a range of temporal and spatial scales and misses the substantive contribution from marine ecosystems, which are notably absent from most climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that extend beyond coastal disaster management. Here, we consider the potential of sediment-dwelling fauna and flora to inform and support nature-based solutions, and how the ecology of benthic environments can enhance adaptation plans. We illustrate our thesis with examples of practice that are generating, or have the potential to deliver, transformative change and discuss where further innovation might be applied. Finally, we take a reflective look at the realized and potential capacity of benthic-based solutions to contribute to adaptation plans and offer our perspectives on the suitability and shortcomings of past achievements and the prospective rewards from sensible prioritization of future research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Climate change mitigation and nature conservation both require higher protected area targets

Nations of the world have, to date, pursued nature protection and climate change mitigation and adaptation policies separately. Both efforts have failed to achieve the scale of action needed to halt biodiversity loss or mitigate climate change. We argue that success can be achieved by aligning targets for biodiversity protection with the habitat protection and restoration necessary to bring down greenhouse gas concentrations and promote natural and societal adaptation to climate change. Success, however, will need much higher targets for environmental protection than the present 10% of sea and 17% of land. A new target of 30% of the sea given high levels of protection from exploitation and harm by 2030 is under consideration and similar targets are being discussed for terrestrial habitats. We make the case here that these higher targets, if achieved, would make the transition to a warmer world slower and less damaging for nature and people. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Coral bleaching patterns are the outcome of complex biological and environmental networking

Continued declines in coral reef health over the past three decades have been punctuated by severe mass coral bleaching-induced mortality events that have grown in intensity and frequency under climate change. Intensive global research efforts have therefore persistently focused on bleaching phenomena to understand where corals bleach, when and why-resulting in a large-yet still somewhat patchy-knowledge base. Particularly catastrophic bleaching-induced coral mortality events in the past 5 years have catalyzed calls for a more diverse set of reef management tools, extending far beyond climate mitigation and reef protection, to also include more aggressive interventions. However, the effectiveness of these various tools now rests on rapidly assimilating our knowledge base of coral bleaching into more integrated frameworks. Here, we consider how the past three decades of intensive coral bleaching research has established the basis for complex biological and environmental networks, which together regulate outcomes of bleaching severity. We discuss how we now have enough scaffold for conceptual biological and environmental frameworks underpinning bleaching susceptibility, but that new tools are urgently required to translate this to an operational system informing-and testing-bleaching outcomes. Specifically, adopting network models that can fully describe and predict metabolic functioning of coral holobionts, and how this functioning is regulated by complex doses and interactions among environmental factors. Identifying knowledge gaps limiting operation of such models is the logical step to immediately guide and prioritize future experiments and observations. We are at a time-critical point where we can implement new capacity to resolve how coral bleaching patterns emerge from complex biological-environmental networks, and so more effectively inform rapidly evolving ecological management and social adaptation frameworks aimed at securing the future of coral reefs.

A fast-moving target: achieving marine conservation goals under shifting climate and policies

In the Anthropocene, marine ecosystems are rapidly shifting to new ecological states. Achieving effective conservation of marine biodiversity has become a fast-moving target because of both global climate change and continuous shifts in marine policies. How prepared are we to deal with this crisis? We examined EU Member States Programs of Measures designed for the implementation of EU marine environmental policies, as well as recent European Marine Spatial Plans, and discovered that climate change is rarely considered operationally. Further, our analysis revealed that monitoring programs in marine protected areas are often insufficient to clearly distinguish between impacts of local and global stressors. Finally, we suggest that while the novel global Blue Growth approach may jeopardize previous marine conservation efforts, it can also provide new conservation opportunities. Adaptive management is the way forward (e.g., preserving ecosystem functions in climate change hotspots, and identifying and targeting climate refugia areas for protection) using Marine Spatial Planning as a framework for action, especially given the push for Blue Growth.

Abrupt Change in a Subtidal Rocky Reef Community Coincided with a Rapid Acceleration of Sea Water Warming

Seawater warming is impacting marine ecosystems, but proper evaluation of change requires the availability of long-term biological data series. Mesco Reef (Ligurian Sea, Italy) offers one of the longest Mediterranean data series on sessile epibenthic communities, based on underwater photographic surveys. Photographs taken in four stations between 20 m and 40 m depth allowed calculating the percent cover of conspicuous species in 1961, 1990, 1996, 2008, and 2017. Multivariate analysis evidenced an abrupt compositional change between 1990 and 1996. A parallel change was observed in Ligurian Sea temperatures. Two invasive macroalgae (Caulerpa cylindracea and Womersleyella setacea) became dominant after 1996. Community diversity was low in 1961 to 1996, rapidly increased between 1996 and 2008, and exhibited distinctly higher values in 2008–2017. A novel community emerged from the climate shift of the 1990s, with many once characteristic species lost, reduced complexity, biotic homogenization, greater diversity and domination by aliens. Only continued monitoring will help envisage the possibility for a reversal of the present phase shift or for further transformations driven by global change.

Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean

The impacts of climate change and the socioecological challenges they present are ubiquitous and increasingly severe. Practical efforts to operationalize climate-responsive design and management in the global network of marine protected areas (MPAs) are required to ensure long-term effectiveness for safeguarding marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. Here, we review progress in integrating climate change adaptation into MPA design and management and provide eight recommendations to expedite this process. Climate-smart management objectives should become the default for all protected areas, and made into an explicit international policy target. Furthermore, incentives to use more dynamic management tools would increase the climate change responsiveness of the MPA network as a whole. Given ongoing negotiations on international conservation targets, now is the ideal time to proactively reform management of the global seascape for the dynamic climate-biodiversity reality.

Marine heat wave and multiple stressors tip bull kelp forest to sea urchin barrens

Extreme climatic events have recently impacted marine ecosystems around the world, including foundation species such as corals and kelps. Here, we describe the rapid climate-driven catastrophic shift in 2014 from a previously robust kelp forest to unproductive large scale urchin barrens in northern California. Bull kelp canopy was reduced by >90% along more than 350 km of coastline. Twenty years of kelp ecosystem surveys reveal the timing and magnitude of events, including mass mortalities of sea stars (2013-), intense ocean warming (2014-2017), and sea urchin barrens (2015-). Multiple stressors led to the unprecedented and long-lasting decline of the kelp forest. Kelp deforestation triggered mass (80%) abalone mortality (2017) resulting in the closure in 2018 of the recreational abalone fishery worth an estimated $44 M and the collapse of the north coast commercial red sea urchin fishery (2015-) worth $3 M. Key questions remain such as the relative roles of ocean warming and sea star disease in the massive purple sea urchin population increase. Science and policy will need to partner to better understand drivers, build climate-resilient fisheries and kelp forest recovery strategies in order to restore essential kelp forest ecosystem services.

Ocean acidification refugia in variable environments

Climate change refugia in the terrestrial biosphere are areas where species are protected from global environmental change and arise from natural heterogeneity in landscapes and climate. Within the marine realm, ocean acidification, or the global decline in seawater pH, remains a pervasive threat to organisms and ecosystems. Natural variability in seawater carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) chemistry, however, presents an opportunity to identify ocean acidification refugia (OAR) for marine species. Here, we review the literature to examine the impacts of variable CO₂ chemistry on biological responses to ocean acidification and develop a framework of definitions and criteria that connects current OAR research to management goals. Under the concept of managing vulnerability, the most likely mechanisms by which OAR can mitigate ocean acidification impacts are by reducing exposure to harmful conditions or enhancing adaptive capacity. While local management options, such as OAR, show some promise, they present unique challenges, and reducing global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions must remain a priority.

An interdisciplinary evaluation of community-based TURF-reserves

Coastal marine ecosystems provide livelihoods for small-scale fishers and coastal communities around the world. Small-scale fisheries face great challenges since they are difficult to monitor, enforce, and manage, which may lead to overexploitation. Combining territorial use rights for fisheries (TURF) with no-take marine reserves to create TURF-reserves can improve the performance of small-scale fisheries by buffering fisheries from environmental variability and management errors, while ensuring that fishers reap the benefits of conservation investments. Since 2012, 18 old and new community-based Mexican TURF-reserves gained legal recognition thanks to a regulation passed in 2012; their effectiveness has not been formally evaluated. We combine causal inference techniques and the Social-Ecological Systems framework to provide a holistic evaluation of community-based TURF-reserves in three coastal communities in Mexico. We find that, overall, reserves have not yet achieved their stated goals of increasing the density of lobster and other benthic invertebrates, nor increasing lobster catches. A lack of clear ecological and socioeconomic effects likely results from a combination of factors. First, some of these reserves might be too young for the effects to show (reserves were 6-10 years old). Second, the reserves are not large enough to protect mobile species, like lobster. Third, variable and extreme oceanographic conditions have impacted harvested populations. Fourth, local fisheries are already well managed, and while reserves may protect populations within its boundaries, it is unlikely that reserves might have a detectable effect in catches. However, even small reserves are expected to provide benefits for sedentary invertebrates over longer time frames, with continued protection. These reserves may provide a foundation for establishing additional, larger marine reserves needed to effectively conserve mobile species.

A Synthesis of Opportunities for Applying the Telecoupling Framework to Marine Protected Areas

The world’s oceans face unprecedented anthropogenic threats in the globalized era that originate from all over the world, including climate change, global trade and transportation, and pollution. Marine protected areas (MPAs) serve important roles in conservation of marine biodiversity and ecosystem resilience, but their success is increasingly challenged in the face of such large-scale threats. Here, we illustrate the utility of adopting the interdisciplinary telecoupling framework to better understand effects that originate from distant places and cross MPA boundaries (e.g., polluted water circulation, anthropogenic noise transport, human and animal migration). We review evidence of distal processes affecting MPAs and the cutting-edge approaches currently used to investigate these processes. We then introduce the umbrella framework of telecoupling and explain how it can help address knowledge gaps that exist due to limitations of past approaches that are centered within individual disciplines. We then synthesize five examples from the recent telecoupling literature to explore how the telecoupling framework can be used for MPA research. These examples include the spatial subsidies approach, adapted social network analysis, telecoupled qualitative analysis, telecoupled supply chain analysis, and decision support tools for telecoupling. Our work highlights the potential for the telecoupling framework to better understand and address the mounting and interconnected socioeconomic and environmental sustainability challenges faced by the growing number of MPAs around the world.

Mapping physiology: biophysical mechanisms define scales of climate change impacts

The rocky intertidal zone is a highly dynamic and thermally variable ecosystem, where the combined influences of solar radiation, air temperature and topography can lead to differences greater than 15°C over the scale of centimetres during aerial exposure at low tide. For most intertidal organisms this small-scale heterogeneity in microclimates can have enormous influences on survival and physiological performance. However, the potential ecological importance of environmental heterogeneity in determining ecological responses to climate change remains poorly understood. We present a novel framework for generating spatially explicit models of microclimate heterogeneity and patterns of thermal physiology among interacting organisms. We used drone photogrammetry to create a topographic map (digital elevation model) at a resolution of 2 × 2 cm from an intertidal site in Massachusetts, which was then fed into to a model of incident solar radiation based on sky view factor and solar position. These data were in turn used to drive a heat budget model that estimated hourly surface temperatures over the course of a year (2017). Body temperature layers were then converted to thermal performance layers for organisms, using thermal performance curves, creating 'physiological landscapes' that display spatially and temporally explicit patterns of 'microrefugia'. Our framework shows how non-linear interactions between these layers lead to predictions about organismal performance and survivorship that are distinct from those made using any individual layer (e.g. topography, temperature) alone. We propose a new metric for quantifying the 'thermal roughness' of a site (RqT, the root mean square of spatial deviations in temperature), which can be used to quantify spatial and temporal variability in temperature and performance at the site level. These methods facilitate an exploration of the role of micro-topographic variability in driving organismal vulnerability to environmental change using both spatially explicit and frequency-based approaches.

Exploitation may influence the climate resilience of fish populations through removing high performance metabolic phenotypes

Physiological rates and processes underpin the relationships between ectothermic organisms, such as fish, and their environment. The response and persistence of fish populations in an increasingly variable ocean is dependent on the distribution and diversity of physiological phenotypes. Growing evidence suggests that fisheries exploitation can selectively target certain physiological and behavioural phenotypes, which may shift exploited populations to altered physiological states. Here we test if commercial fisheries have the potential to do this in a “natural laboratory” along the South African coast. We compare metabolic traits of exploited and protected populations of the fish species, Chrysoblephus laticeps, which is a major component of the South African hook and line fishery. We find that high-performance aerobic scope phenotypes are reduced in the fished population. The most likely mechanism for this finding is a positive relationship between aerobic scope and capture vulnerability in passive-gear fisheries. Our results further highlight the selective nature of capture-fisheries and suggest that exploitation has the capacity to alter climate responses of fish populations on a physiological level. Our finding also implicates how Marine Protected Areas, through harbouring individuals with a greater diversity of physiological traits, may provide greater fish response diversity to environmental variability.

Climate change impacts on mismatches between phytoplankton blooms and fish spawning phenology

Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature-linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high-emissions, climate-warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: "geographic spawners" whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and "environmental spawners" whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes >40°N. The temperature-linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across >85% of this region. "Extreme events," defined here as seasonal mismatches >30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10-fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.

Dataset on marine ecosystem services supplied by coral reefs, sandy beaches and coastal lagoons in different eutrophication states

This data article provides indicators of Ecosystem Service (ES) supply for coral reefs, sandy beaches and coastal lagoons in different ecological states regarding eutrophication. 14 ES are considered: food through fisheries; material; molecules; coastal protection; nutrient regulation; pathogen regulation; climate regulation; support of recreational and leisure activities; contribution to a pleasant landscape; contribution to culture and territorial identity; emblematic biodiversity; habitat; trophic networks; recruitment. For each ecosystem 3 to 4 eutrophication states are described. Indicators of ES supply are filled on the basis of a literature review supplemented with expert-knowledge. A semi-quantification of the indicator value is finally provided. Tendencies and trade-offs between ES are analyzed in How does eutrophication impact bundles of ecosystem services in multiple coastal habitats using state-and-transition models [1].

Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Artisanal fish fences pose broad and unexpected threats to the tropical coastal seascape

Gear restrictions are an important management tool in small-scale tropical fisheries, improving sustainability and building resilience to climate change. Yet to identify the management challenges and complete footprint of individual gears, a broader systems approach is required that integrates ecological, economic and social sciences. Here we apply this approach to artisanal fish fences, intensively used across three oceans, to identify a previously underrecognized gear requiring urgent management attention. A longitudinal case study shows increased effort matched with large declines in catch success and corresponding reef fish abundance. We find fish fences to disrupt vital ecological connectivity, exploit > 500 species with high juvenile removal, and directly damage seagrass ecosystems with cascading impacts on connected coral reefs and mangroves. As semi-permanent structures in otherwise open-access fisheries, they create social conflict by assuming unofficial and unregulated property rights, while their unique high-investment-low-effort nature removes traditional economic and social barriers to overfishing.

A Global Deal For Nature: Guiding principles, milestones, and targets

The Global Deal for Nature (GDN) is a time-bound, science-driven plan to save the diversity and abundance of life on Earth. Pairing the GDN and the Paris Climate Agreement would avoid catastrophic climate change, conserve species, and secure essential ecosystem services. New findings give urgency to this union: Less than half of the terrestrial realm is intact, yet conserving all native ecosystems-coupled with energy transition measures-will be required to remain below a 1.5°C rise in average global temperature. The GDN targets 30% of Earth to be formally protected and an additional 20% designated as climate stabilization areas, by 2030, to stay below 1.5°C. We highlight the 67% of terrestrial ecoregions that can meet 30% protection, thereby reducing extinction threats and carbon emissions from natural reservoirs. Freshwater and marine targets included here extend the GDN to all realms and provide a pathway to ensuring a more livable biosphere.

The future of resilience-based management in coral reef ecosystems

Resilience underpins the sustainability of both ecological and social systems. Extensive loss of reef corals following recent mass bleaching events have challenged the notion that support of system resilience is a viable reef management strategy. While resilience-based management (RBM) cannot prevent the damaging effects of major disturbances, such as mass bleaching events, it can support natural processes that promote resistance and recovery. Here, we review the potential of RBM to help sustain coral reefs in the 21st century. We explore the scope for supporting resilience through existing management approaches and emerging technologies and discuss their opportunities and limitations in a changing climate. We argue that for RBM to be effective in a changing world, reef management strategies need to involve both existing and new interventions that together reduce stress, support the fitness of populations and species, and help people and economies to adapt to a highly altered ecosystem.

Long-Distance Benefits of Marine Reserves: Myth or Reality?

Long-distance (>40-km) dispersal from marine reserves is poorly documented; yet, it can provide essential benefits such as seeding fished areas or connecting marine reserves into networks. From a meta-analysis, we suggest that the spatial scale of marine connectivity is underestimated due to the limited geographic extent of sampling designs. We also found that the largest marine reserves (>1000km²) are the most isolated. These findings have important implications for the assessment of evolutionary, ecological, and socio-economic long-distance benefits of marine reserves. We conclude that existing methods to infer dispersal should consider the up-to-date genomic advances and also expand the spatial scale of sampling designs. Incorporating long-distance connectivity in conservation planning will contribute to increase the benefits of marine reserve networks.

Climate Change, Coral Loss, and the Curious Case of the Parrotfish Paradigm: Why Don't Marine Protected Areas Improve Reef Resilience?

Scientists have advocated for local interventions, such as creating marine protected areas and implementing fishery restrictions, as ways to mitigate local stressors to limit the effects of climate change on reef-building corals. However, in a literature review, we find little empirical support for the notion of managed resilience. We outline some reasons for why marine protected areas and the protection of herbivorous fish (especially parrotfish) have had little effect on coral resilience. One key explanation is that the impacts of local stressors (e.g., pollution and fishing) are often swamped by the much greater effect of ocean warming on corals. Another is the sheer complexity (including numerous context dependencies) of the five cascading links assumed by the managed-resilience hypothesis. If reefs cannot be saved by local actions alone, then it is time to face reef degradation head-on, by directly addressing anthropogenic climate change-the root cause of global coral decline.

Future scenarios of marine resources and ecosystem conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean under the impacts of fishing, alien species and sea warming

Using a temporal-dynamic calibrated Ecosim food web model, we assess the effects of future changes on marine resources and ecosystem conditions of the Israeli Mediterranean continental shelf. This region has been intensely invaded by Indo-Pacific species. The region is exposed to extreme environmental conditions, is subjected to high rates of climate change and has experienced intense fishing pressure. We test the impacts of a new set of fishing regulations currently being implemented, a continued increase in sea temperatures following IPCC projections, and a continued increase in alien species biomass. We first investigate the impacts of the stressors separately, and then we combine them to evaluate their cumulative effects. Our results show overall potential future benefits of fishing effort reductions, and detrimental impacts of increasing sea temperature and increasing biomass of alien species. Cumulative scenarios suggest that the beneficial effects of fisheries reduction may be dampened by the impact of increasing sea temperature and alien species when acting together. These results illustrate the importance of including stressors other than fisheries, such as climate change and biological invasions, in an ecosystem-based management approach. These results support the need for reducing local and regional stressors, such as fishing and biological invasions, in order to promote resilience to sea warming.

On the ecological relevance of landscape mapping and its application in the spatial planning of very large marine protected areas

In recent years very large marine protected areas (VLMPAs) have become the dominant form of spatial protection in the marine environment. Whilst seen as a holistic and geopolitically achievable approach to conservation, there is currently a mismatch between the size of VLMPAs, and the data available to underpin their establishment and inform on their management. Habitat mapping has increasingly been adopted as a means of addressing paucity in biological data, through use of environmental proxies to estimate species and community distribution. Small-scale studies have demonstrated environmental-biological links in marine systems. Such links, however, are rarely demonstrated across larger spatial scales in the benthic environment. As such, the utility of habitat mapping as an effective approach to the ecosystem-based management of VLMPAs remains, thus far, largely undetermined. The aim of this study was to assess the ecological relevance of broadscale landscape mapping. Specifically we test the relationship between broad-scale marine landscapes and the structure of their benthic faunal communities. We focussed our work at the sub-Antarctic island of South Georgia, site of one of the largest MPAs in the world. We demonstrate a statistically significant relationship between environmentally derived landscape mapping clusters, and the composition of presence-only species data from the region. To demonstrate this relationship required specific re-sampling of historical species occurrence data to balance biological rarity, biological cosmopolitism, range-restricted sampling and fine-scale heterogeneity between sampling stations. The relationship reveals a distinct biological signature in the faunal composition of individual landscapes, attributing ecological relevance to South Georgia's environmentally derived marine landscape map. We argue therefore, that landscape mapping represents an effective framework for ensuring representative protection of habitats in management plans. Such scientific underpinning of marine spatial planning is critical in balancing the needs of multiple stakeholders whilst maximising conservation payoff.

Addressing Criticisms of Large-Scale Marine Protected Areas

Designated large-scale marine protected areas (LSMPAs, 100,000 or more square kilometers) constitute over two-thirds of the approximately 6.6% of the ocean and approximately 14.5% of the exclusive economic zones within marine protected areas. Although LSMPAs have received support among scientists and conservation bodies for wilderness protection, regional ecological connectivity, and improving resilience to climate change, there are also concerns. We identified 10 common criticisms of LSMPAs along three themes: (1) placement, governance, and management; (2) political expediency; and (3) social-ecological value and cost. Through critical evaluation of scientific evidence, we discuss the value, achievements, challenges, and potential of LSMPAs in these arenas. We conclude that although some criticisms are valid and need addressing, none pertain exclusively to LSMPAs, and many involve challenges ubiquitous in management. We argue that LSMPAs are an important component of a diversified management portfolio that tempers potential losses, hedges against uncertainty, and enhances the probability of achieving sustainably managed oceans.