Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Adverse outcomes after non-hepatic surgeries in patients with alcoholic liver diseases: a propensity-score matched study

BACKGROUND

The influence of alcoholic liver disease (ALD) on the postoperative outcomes is not completely understood. Our purpose is to evaluate the complications and mortality after nonhepatic surgeries in patients with ALD.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study included adults aged 20 years and older who underwent nonhepatic elective surgeries using data of Taiwan's National Health Insurance, 2008-2013. Using a propensity-score matching procedure, we selected surgical patients with ALD (n = 26,802); or surgical patients without ALD (n = 26,802) for comparison. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of postoperative complications and in-hospital mortality associated with ALD.

RESULTS

Patients with ALD had higher risks of acute renal failure (OR 2.74, 95% CI 2.28-3.28), postoperative bleeding (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.34-2.01), stroke (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.34-1.70) septicemia (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.36-1.58), pneumonia (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.29-1.58), and in-hospital mortality (OR 2.64, 95% CI 2.24-3.11) than non-ALD patients. Patients with ALD also had longer hospital stays and higher medical expenditures after nonhepatic surgical procedures than the non-ALD patients. Compared with patients without ALD, patients with ALD who had jaundice (OR 4.82, 95% CI 3.68-6.32), ascites (OR 4.57, 95% CI 3.64-5.74), hepatic coma (OR 4.41, 95% CI 3.44-5.67), gastrointestinal hemorrhage (OR 3.84, 95% CI 3.09-4.79), and alcohol dependence syndrome (OR 3.07, 95% CI 2.39-3.94) were more likely to have increased postoperative mortality.

CONCLUSION

Surgical patients with ALD had more adverse events and a risk of in-hospital mortality after nonhepatic surgeries that was approximately 2.6-fold higher than that for non-ALD patients. These findings suggest the urgent need to revise the protocols for peri-operative care for this population.

Salt consumption and mortality risk in cirrhotic patients: results from a cohort study

Since conducting a long-term randomised clinical trial is not logical and feasible to find the optimum dosage of salt intake in patients with cirrhosis, cohort studies are the best design to assess the long-term effects of dietary salt on the survival of cirrhotic patients. This cohort study aimed to evaluate the association between dietary intake of salt and mortality risk in cirrhotic patients. The present study was designed as a cohort in three referral hospitals in Iran in 2018. One hundred and twenty-one patients aged between 20 and 70 years with established cirrhosis were recruited. Dietary intakes, demographic data and disease severity were evaluated at the baseline. Participants were followed up annually. Crude survival was greater in patients with low-to-moderate salt consumption rather than in those with high consumption, and in non-consumers [34⋅26 (95 % CI 33⋅04, 35⋅49) v. 30⋅41 (95 % CI 27⋅13, 33⋅69) v. 32⋅72 (95 % CI 30⋅63, 34⋅80), P = 0⋅028; log-rank test]. Using the Cox proportional hazard model, it was shown that the risk of mortality in the high-salt consumption category was approximately 126 % higher than that of the reference category (non-consumers) [HR value 2⋅26, (95 % CI 0⋅91, 5⋅63)], while this risk for the low-to-moderate consumption group was about 28 % lower than the reference category [HR value 0⋅72, (95 % CI 0⋅26, 1⋅99), P-trend = 0⋅04]. In conclusion, a high daily dietary intake of salt might increase the rate of mortality and moderate salt restriction (instead of elimination of salt) decreases the risk of death.

Multiparametric MRI combined with liver volume for quantitative evaluation of liver function in patients with cirrhosis

PURPOSE We aimed to establish a liver function evaluation model by combining multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with liver volume (LV) and further verify the effectiveness of the model to evaluate liver function. METHODS This retrospective study included 101 consecutive cirrhosis patients (69 cases for modeling group and 32 cases for validation group) who underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI. Five signal intensity parameters were obtained by measuring the signal intensities of the liver, spleen, and erector spinae before and 20 minutes after gadoxetic acid disodium enhancement. The dif fusion coefficient (D), pseudo-diffusion coefficient (D*), and perfusion fraction (f) were obtained from intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted imaging. The LV parameters (Vliver, Vspleen, and Vliver/Vspleen) were obtained using 3-dimensional image generation software. The most effec tive parameter was selected from each of the 3 methods, and a multivariate regression model for liver function evaluation was established and validated. RESULTS In the modeling group, relative enhancement (RE), D*, and Vliver/Vspleen showed significant dif ferences among the different liver function groups (P < .001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that these parameters had the highest area under the curve (AUC) values for dis tinguishing Child-Pugh A from Child-Pugh B and C groups (0.917, 0.929, and 0.885, respectively). The following liver function model was obtained by multivariate regression analysis: F(x)=3.96 - 1.243 (RE) - 0.034 (D*) - 0.080 (Vliver/Vspleen) (R2=0.811, P < .001). In the patients with cirrhosis, the F(x) of Child-Pugh A, B, and C were 1.16 ± 0.44, 1.95 ± 0.29, and 2.79 ± 0.38, respectively. In the validation group, the AUC for F(x) to distinguish Child-Pugh A from Child-Pugh B and C was 0.973. CONCLUSION Combining multiparametric MRI with LV effectively distinguished patients with different Child Pugh grades. This model could hence be useful as a novel radiological marker to estimate the liver function.

Pharmacokinetics of Vancomycin among Patients with Chemotherapy-Associated Febrile Neutropenia: Which Would Be the Best Dosing to Obtain Appropriate Exposure?

Previous research has determined that the required doses for treating febrile neutropenia with vancomycin are higher than the doses used conventionally. These recommendations have been made considering pharmacotherapeutic goals based on minimum concentration (Cmin) between 15-20 mg/L. This study was developed to evaluate dose recommendations based on the achievement of a target consisting of ratio of area under the curve over minimum inhibitory concentration (AUC24h/MIC) ≥400 in this population of individuals. This study was conducted in a referral hospital for cancer treatment, study participants received vancomycin doses of 1g every 12 h in 2-4-h infusions. Vancomycin was described by a two-compartment pharmacokinetic model with clearance dependent on the estimated glomerular filtration rate. Simulations were performed taking into account a reduced version of the model to establish the influence of controllable and non-controllable variables on the probability of achieving several PK-PD targets. A dose of 2.5g/day in patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between 80 and 122mL/min/1.73m2 was adequate to achieve the pharmacotherapeutic target. A discrepancy was found between AUC-based and Cmin-based PK/PD indices, the former being affected by the dose and creatinine clearance while the latter highly influenced by the interval between doses.

Human stem cells for decompensated cirrhosis in adults

This is a protocol for a Cochrane Review (intervention). The objectives are as follows:

To assess the benefits and harms of stem cell treatment in adults with decompensated cirrhosis, regardless of ethnicity, sex, types of stem cells, route of stem cell injection, and administered dose.

Gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI-derived functional liver imaging score (FLIS) and spleen diameter predict outcomes in ACLD

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Functional liver imaging score (FLIS) - derived from gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI - correlates with liver function and independently predicts liver-related mortality in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD), while splenic craniocaudal diameter (SCCD) is a marker of portal hypertension. The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of a combination of FLIS and SCCD for predicting hepatic decompensation, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), and mortality in patients with advanced CLD (ACLD).

METHODS

We included 397 patients with CLD who underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced liver MRI. The FLIS was calculated by summing the points (0-2) of 3 hepatobiliary-phase features: hepatic enhancement, biliary excretion, and portal vein signal intensity. Patients were stratified into 3 groups according to liver fibrosis severity and presence/history of hepatic decompensation: non-ACLD, compensated ACLD (cACLD), and decompensated ACLD (dACLD).

RESULTS

SCCD showed excellent intra- and inter-reader agreement. Importantly, SCCD was an independent risk factor for hepatic decompensation in patients with cACLD (per cm; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.13; 95% CI 1.04-1.23; p = 0.004). Patients with cACLD and a FLIS of 0-3 points and/or a SCCD of >13 cm were at increased risk of hepatic decompensation (aHR 3.07; 95% CI 1.43-6.59; p = 0.004). In patients with dACLD, a FLIS of 0-3 was independently associated with an increased risk of ACLF (aHR 2.81; 95% CI 1.16-6.84; p = 0.02), even after adjusting for other prognostic factors. Finally, a FLIS and SCCD-based algorithm was independently predictive of transplant-free mortality and stratified the probability of transplant-free survival (TFS) in ACLD (p <0.001): FLIS 4-6 and SCCD ≤13 cm (5-year TFS of 84%) vs. FLIS 4-6 and SCCD >13 cm (5-year TFS of 70%) vs. FLIS 0-3 (5-year TFS of 24%).

CONCLUSION

The FLIS and SCCD are simple imaging markers that provide complementary information for risk stratification in patients with compensated and decompensated ACLD.

LAY SUMMARY

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can be used to assess the state of the liver. Previously the functional liver imaging score, which is based on MRI criteria, was developed as a measure of liver function and to predict the risk of liver-related complications or death. By combining this score with a measurement of spleen diameter, also using MRI, we generated an algorithm that could predict the risk of adverse liver-related outcomes in patients with advanced chronic liver disease.

Impact of Asymptomatic Superior Mesenteric Vein Thrombosis on the Outcomes of Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

 The impact of asymptomatic superior mesenteric vein (SMV) thrombosis on the outcomes of cirrhotic patients remains uncertain.

METHODS

 Nonmalignant cirrhotic patients who were consecutively admitted between December 2014 and September 2021 and underwent contrast-enhanced computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging scans were screened. Portal venous system thrombosis (PVST) was identified. Death and hepatic decompensation were the outcomes of interest. Nelson-Aalen cumulative risk curve analysis and competing risk regression analysis were performed to evaluate the impact of asymptomatic SMV thrombosis and portal vein thrombosis (PVT) on the outcomes.

RESULTS

 Overall, 475 patients were included, of whom 67 (14.1%) had asymptomatic SMV thrombosis, 95 (20%) had PVT, and 344 (72.4%) did not have any PVST. Nelson-Aalen cumulative risk curve analyses showed that the cumulative incidences of death (p = 0.653) and hepatic decompensation (p = 0.630) were not significantly different between patients with asymptomatic SMV thrombosis and those without PVST, but the cumulative incidences of death (p = 0.021) and hepatic decompensation (p = 0.004) were significantly higher in patients with PVT than those without PVST. Competing risk regression analyses demonstrated that asymptomatic SMV thrombosis was not a significant risk factor for death (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] = 0.89, p = 0.65) or hepatic decompensation (sHR = 1.09, p = 0.63), but PVT was a significant risk factor for death (sHR = 1.56, p = 0.02) and hepatic decompensation (sHR = 1.50, p = 0.006). These statistical results remained in competing risk regression analyses after adjusting for age, sex, and Child-Pugh score.

CONCLUSIONS

 Asymptomatic SMV thrombosis may not influence the outcomes of cirrhotic patients. The timing of intervention for asymptomatic SMV thrombosis in liver cirrhosis should be further explored.

A non-human primate model of acute liver failure suitable for testing liver support systems

Acute hepatic failure is associated with high morbidity and mortality for which the only definitive therapy is liver transplantation. Some fraction of those who undergo emergency transplantation have been shown to recover native liver function when transplanted with an auxiliary hepatic graft that leaves part of the native liver intact. Thus, transplantation could have been averted with the development and use of some form of hepatic support. The costs of developing and testing liver support systems could be dramatically reduced by the availability of a reliable large animal model of hepatic failure with a large therapeutic window that allows the assessment of efficacy and timing of intervention. Non-lethal forms of hepatic injury were examined in combination with liver-directed radiation in non-human primates (NHPs) to develop a model of acute hepatic failure that mimics the human condition. Porcine hepatocyte transplantation was then tested as a potential therapy for acute hepatic failure. After liver-directed radiation therapy, delivery of a non-lethal hepatic ischemia-reperfusion injury reliably and rapidly generated liver failure providing conditions that can enable pre-clinical testing of liver support or replacement therapies. Unfortunately, in preliminary studies, low hepatocyte engraftment and over-immune suppression interfered with the ability to assess the efficacy of transplanted porcine hepatocytes in the model. A model of acute liver failure in NHPs was created that recapitulates the pathophysiology and pathology of the clinical condition, does so with reasonably predictable kinetics, and results in 100% mortality. The model allowed preliminary testing of xenogeneic hepatocyte transplantation as a potential therapy.

D-Dimer-to-Albumin Ratio: A Novel Indicator to Predict Poor Outcomes in Patients with HBV-Associated Decompensated Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the impact of D-dimer-to-albumin ratio (DAR) on outcomes in patients with hepatitis B virus-associated decompensated cirrhosis (HBV-DeCi).

METHODS

A total of 172 HBV-DeCi patients were enrolled. Logistic regression was used to explore the association between DAR and 30-day mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of DAR for predicting mortality.

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality was 19.8%. DAR was clearly higher in the nonsurvivors compared with the survivors, and increasing DAR was associated with an increasing risk of death. DAR was independently associated with mortality and its AUC for mortality was equivalent to that for Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score.

CONCLUSIONS

DAR may be a potential prognostic marker for mortality in HBV-DeCi patients.

Determination of hepatic extraction fraction with gadoxetate low‐temporal resolution DCE‐MRI ‐based deconvolution analysis: validation with ALBI score and Child‐Pugh class

INTRODUCTION

In this study, we aimed to investigate the feasibility of gadoxetate low-temporal resolution (LTR) DCE-MRI for voxel-based hepatic extraction fraction (HEF) quantification for liver sparing radiotherapy using a deconvolution analysis (DA) method.

METHODS

The accuracy and consistency of the deconvolution implementation in estimating liver function was first assessed using simulation data. Then, the method was applied to DCE-MRI data collected retrospectively from 64 patients (25 normal liver function and 39 cirrhotic patients) to generate HEF maps. The normal liver function patient data were used to measure the variability of liver function quantification. Next, a correlation between HEF and ALBI score (a new model for assessing the severity of liver dysfunction) was assessed using Pearson's correlation. Differences in HEF between Child-Pugh score classifications were assessed for significance using the Kruskal-Wallis test for all patient groups and Mann-Whitney U-test for inter-groups. A statistical significance was considered at a P-value <0.05 in all tests.

RESULTS

The results showed that the implemented method accurately reproduced simulated liver function; root-mean-square error between estimated and simulated liver response functions was 0.003, and the coefficient-of-variance of HEF was <20%. HEF correlation with ALBI score was r = -0.517, P < 0.0001, and HEF was significantly decreased in the cirrhotic patients compared to normal patients (P < 0.0001). Also, HEF in Child-Pugh B/C was significantly lower than in Child-Pugh A (P = 0.024).

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrated the feasibility of gadoxetate LTR-DCE MRI for voxel-based liver function quantification using DA. HEF could distinguish between different grades of liver function impairment and could potentially be used for functional guidance in radiotherapy.

A significant predictor of in-hospital and long-term mortality and progression in COVID-19 patients: The end-stage liver disease (MELD) score model

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and disease progression and mortality in COVID-19 patients. The files of 4213 patients over the age of 18 who were hospitalized with the diagnosis of COVID-19 between March 20, 2020 and May 1, 2021 were retrospectively scanned. Sociodemographic characteristics, chronic diseases, hemogram and biochemical parameters at the time they were diagnosed with COVID-19 of the patients, duration of hospitalization, duration of intensive care unit (ICU), duration of intubation, in-hospital mortality from COVID-19 and outside-hospital mortality for another reason (within the last 1 year) and recurrent hospitalization (within the last 1 year) were recorded. The MELD scores of the patients were calculated. Two groups were formed as MELD score < 10 and MELD score ≥ 10. The rate of ICU, in-hospital mortality from COVID-19 and outside-hospital mortality from other causes, intubation rate, and recurrent hospitalization were significantly higher in the MELD ≥ 10 group. The duration of ICU, hospitalization, intubation were significantly higher in the MELD ≥ 10 group (p < 0.001). As a result of Univariate and Multivariate analysis, MELD score was found to be the independent predictors of ICU, in-hospital mortality, intubation, and recurrent hospitalization (p < 0.001). MELD score 18.5 predicted ICU with 99% sensitivity and 100% specificity (area under curve [AUC]: 0.740, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.717-0.763, p < 0.001) also MELD score 18.5 predicted in-hospital mortality with 99% sensitivity and 100% specificity (AUC: 0.797, 95% CI: 0.775-0.818, p < 0.001). The MELD score was found to be the independent predictors of in-hospital mortality, ICU admission, and intubation in COVID-19 patients.

Novel nomogram model for predicting 6-week mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting 6-week mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and to compare it with other commonly used scoring systems.

METHODS

This retrospective study included cirrhotic patients with acute UGIB hospitalized between January 2013 and December 2020. Random sampling was used to divide patients into the training (n = 676) and validation cohorts (n = 291) at a 7:3 ratio. Multivariate logistic stepwise regression was used to establish a model for predicting 6-week mortality. Multiple indicators were used to validate the nomogram, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

In the training cohort, total bilirubin (TBIL) (odds ratio [OR] 1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-2.50), hemoglobin (Hb) (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95-0.99), C-reactive protein (OR 2.79, 95% CI 1.30-6.07), prothrombin time (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.30), and hepatic encephalopathy (stage I-II: OR 4.15, 95% CI 1.73-9.61; stage III-IV: OR 19.6, 95% CI 5.33-76.8) were identified as independent factors of 6-week mortality. The AUROC of the UGIB-LC score was 0.873 (95% CI 0.820-0.927), which was higher than that of the Child-Pugh score (0.781), model for end-stage liver disease score (0.766), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (0.716).

CONCLUSION

The UGIB-LC score is useful for predicting 6-week mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute UGIB, which is superior to the other three scoring systems.

Prognostic Nomograms Combined Adjuvant Lenvatinib for Hepatitis B Virus–related Hepatocellular Carcinoma With Microvascular Invasion After Radical Resection

Background and Aim

Microvascular invasion (MVI) has been established as one of the most important contributors to the prognosis of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The objective of this study was to investigate the potential effect of postoperative adjuvant therapy with lenvatinib on the long-term prognosis after radical resection in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC patients with MVI, as well as to predict the long-term survival based on nomograms.

Methods

Data from 293 HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients with histologically confirmed MVI who underwent R0 resection at Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital (EHBH) was retrospectively analyzed. 57 patients received postoperative adjuvant therapy with lenvatinib, while 236 patients did not. The survival outcome of patients who received postoperative adjuvant lenvatinib versus those who did not was analyzed.

Results

The 1-year, 2-year recurrence rates and survival rates of the lenvatinib group were improved compared to the non-lenvatinib group (15.9%, 43.2% vs 40.1%, 57.2%, P=0.002; 85.8%, 71.2% vs 69.6%, 53.3%, P=0.009, respectively). Similar findings were also observed after Propensity Score Matching (PSM) compared to non-PSM analyses The 1-year, 2-year recurrence rates and survival rates were more favorable for the lenvatinib group compared to the non-lenvatinib group (15.9%, 43.2% vs 42.1%, 57.4%, P=0.028; 85.8%, 71.2% vs 70.0%, 53.4%, P=0.024, respectively). As shown by univariate and multivariate analyses, absence of adjuvant lenvatinib treatment was identified as an independent risk factor for recurrence and survival. The established nomograms displayed good performance for the prediction of recurrence and survival, with a C-index of 0.658 and 0.682 respectively.

Conclusions

Postoperative adjuvant therapy with lenvatinib was associated with improved long-term prognosis after R0 Resection in HBV-related HCC patients with MVI, which could be accurately predicted from nomograms.

Differences in the pattern and cost of hospital care between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians with cirrhosis: an exploratory study

BACKGROUND

Liver diseases are important contributors to the mortality gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.

AIMS

This cohort study examined factors associated with hospital admissions and healthcare outcomes among Indigenous Australians with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Patient-reported outcomes were obtained by face-to-face interview (Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaire and Short Form 36 (SF-36)). Clinical data were extracted from medical records and through data linkage for 534 patients (25 indigenous). Cumulative overall survival (Kaplan-Meier), rates of hospital admissions and emergency presentations, and costs were assessed by indigenous status. Incidence rate ratios (IRR; Poisson regression) were reported.

RESULTS

Indigenous Australians admitted to hospital with cirrhosis had lower educational status compared with non-indigenous patients (79.2% vs 43.4%; P < 0.001). The two groups had, in general, similar clinical characteristics including disease severity (P = 0.78), presence of cirrhosis complications (P = 0.67), comorbidities (P = 0.62), rates of cirrhosis-related admissions (P = 0.86) and 5-year survival (P = 0.30). However, indigenous patients had a lower score in the SF-36 domain related to bodily pain (P = 0.037), more cirrhosis admissions via the emergency department (IRR = 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.83) and fewer planned cirrhosis admissions (IRR = 0.32, 95% CI 0.14-0.72). The total cost for cirrhosis-related hospital admissions for 534 patients over 6 years (July 2012 to June 2018) was A$13.7 million. The cost of cirrhosis-related hospital admissions was double for indigenous patients (cost ratio = 2.04, 95% CI 2.04-2.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data highlight the disparities in health service use and patient-reported outcomes, despite having similar clinical profiles. Integration between primary care, Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations and liver specialists is critical for appropriate health service delivery and effective use of resources. Chronic liver disease costs the community dearly.

Validation and prognostic value of EZ-ALBI score in patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma treated with trans-arterial chemoembolization

Background

Heterogeneity of liver function and tumor burden in intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) results in different outcomes after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Easy albumin-bilirubin (EZ-ALBI), a simplified albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, has recently been proposed as a new prognostic score for HCC. This study aimed to validate the EZ-ALBI score and evaluate the impact of dynamic changes in patients with intermediate-stage HCC undergoing TACE.

Methods

All patients with HCC treated with TACE at King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Bangkok, Thailand, between January 2015 and December 2019 were prospectively enrolled. Intermediate-stage HCC was defined as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B or unresectable single HCC with size > 5 cm in BCLC stage A. EZ-ALBI and ALBI scores were calculated and stratified into three different grades. Overall survival (OS) and prognostic factors were assessed using the Kaplan–Meier curve and Cox proportional hazard model. Decision analysis curves were used to evaluate the clinical utility of the predictive scores.

Results

Among 672 patients with HCC treated with TACE, 166 patients with intermediate-stage HCC who met the eligibility criteria were enrolled. The median OS of all patients in the cohort was 21 months. A good correlation between the EZ-ALBI and ALBI scores was observed (correlation coefficient 1.000, p < 0.001). The baseline EZ-ALBI grades 1, 2, and 3 were 24.5%, 70%, and 5.5%, respectively. EZ-ALBI grade can stratify patients with significantly different prognoses (p = 0.002). Baseline EZ-ALBI grade 2, 3, and serum alpha-fetoprotein > 20 ng/ml were significantly associated with OS [hazard ratio (HR) 2.20 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24–3.88, p = 0.007), 3.26 (95% CI 1.24–8.57, p = 0.016), and 1.77 (95% CI 1.10–2.84, p = 0.018), respectively]. Following TACE, 42 (29.6%) patients had a worsening EZ-ALBI grade. However, the EZ-ALBI grade migration was not significantly correlated with OS. EZ-ALBI and ALBI score provided improved discriminatory ability (Harrell’s concordance index 0.599 and 0.602, respectively) and better net benefit compared with Child-Turcotte-Pugh and Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores.

Conclusions

The baseline EZ-ALBI score demonstrated good predictive performance for survival and a strong correlation with conventional ALBI scores. Both the EZ-ALBI and ALBI scores outperformed other prognostic models in patients with intermediate-stage HCC receiving TACE. However, the dynamic change in the EZ-ALBI grade after TACE was not associated with postprocedural survival.

Assessment of liver cirrhosis severity with extracellular volume fraction MRI

We aimed to investigate the diagnostic utility of MRI extracellular volume fraction (ECV) for the assessment of liver cirrhosis severity as defined by Child–Pugh class. In this retrospective study, 90 patients (68 cirrhotic patients and 22 controls), who underwent multiparametric liver MRI, were identified. Hepatic T1 relaxation times and ECV were assessed. Clinical scores of liver disease severity were calculated. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey’s multiple comparison test, Spearman’s correlation coefficient, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were used for statistical analysis. In cirrhotic patients, hepatic native T1 increased depending on Child–Pugh class (620.5 ± 78.9 ms (Child A) vs. 666.6 ± 73.4 ms (Child B) vs. 828.4 ± 91.2 ms (Child C), P < 0.001). ECV was higher in cirrhotic patients compared to the controls (40.1 ± 11.9% vs. 25.9 ± 4.5%, P < 0.001) and increased depending of Child–Pugh class (33.3 ± 6.0% (Child A) vs. 39.6 ± 4.9% (Child B) vs. 52.8 ± 1.2% (Child C), P < 0.001). ECV correlated with Child–Pugh score (r = 0.64, P < 0.001). ECV allowed differentiating between Child–Pugh classes A and B, and B and C with an AUC of 0.785 and 0.944 (P < 0.001, respectively). The diagnostic performance of ECV for differentiating between Child–Pugh classes A and B, and B and C was higher compared to hepatic native T1 (AUC: 0.651 and 0.910) and MELD score (AUC: 0.740 and 0.795) (P < 0.05, respectively). MRI-derived ECV correlated with Child–Pugh score and had a high diagnostic performance for the discrimination of different Child–Pugh classes. ECV might become a valuable non-invasive biomarker for the assessment of liver cirrhosis severity.

A model to predict inhospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis, ascites and hyponatremia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Hypervolemic hyponatremia is a late complication of portal hypertension. Hyponatremia is associated with a higher mortality in hospitalized patients. In this study, we evaluated the risk factors for inhospital mortality and developed a mortality prediction model in patients with cirrhosis and hyponatremia.

METHODS

Using the national inpatient sample data for years 2016 and 2017, we identified cirrhotic patients hospitalized with ascites and hyponatremia (n = 9153). We identified independent risk factors of inhospital mortality and developed a prediction model in a training group and assessed its accuracy in a validation group. To enhance the clinical utility, we further stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk mortality risk groups using cutoff points selected by decision tree analysis.

RESULTS

The inhospital mortality in our cohort was 10.2% (n = 846). Multivariable analysis showed that age at least 65 years, variceal bleeding, sepsis, coagulopathy, and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF defined as two or more organ failures) were independent risk factors for mortality. The prediction model using these five risk factors had an AUROC of 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.78-0.82] for the training data and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.80-0.86) for the validation data. The mortality risks in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 4% (95% CI, 3-4), 29% (95% CI, 28-33), and 43% (95% CI, 37-50), respectively.

CONCLUSION

We have developed a clinically meaningful inhospital prognostic model with excellent discrimination that will enable clinicians to risk stratify hospitalized patients with hyponatremia, ascites, and cirrhosis.

Association of endoscopic variceal treatment with portal venous system thrombosis in liver cirrhosis: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

The association of endoscopic variceal treatment (EVT) with portal venous system thrombosis (PVST) in liver cirrhosis is still unclear.

METHODS

PVST was assessed by contrast-enhanced CT or MRI in 406 cirrhotic patients from our prospective database. Case and control groups, which are defined as patients with and without PVST, respectively, were matched at a ratio of 1:1 according to age, gender, Child-Pugh class, and MELD score. History of EVT was reviewed. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for PVST. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated. Subgroup analyses were further performed in terms of degree and location of PVST.

RESULTS

Overall, 109 patients each were included in case and control groups. The case group had a significantly higher proportion of patients who had undergone EVT than the control group (53.2% versus 18.3%; p < 0.001). In detail, the case group had significantly higher proportions of patients who had undergone EVT for controlling bleeding (45.9% versus 14.7%; p < 0.001), endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) alone (19.3% versus 9.2%; p = 0.033), and EVL combined with endoscopic cyanoacrylate glue injection (24.8% versus 5.5%; p < 0.001). EVT was independently associated with PVST (OR = 4.258; p < 0.001). In subgroup analyses, EVT remained independently associated with partial PVST (OR = 10.063; p < 0.001), complete PVST/fibrotic cord (OR = 4.889; p = 0.008), thrombosis within main portal vein (OR = 5.985; p < 0.001), and thrombosis within superior mesenteric and splenic veins (OR = 5.747; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

EVT may lead to a higher risk of PVST, especially more severe PVST, in liver cirrhosis. Screening for and prophylaxis of PVST after EVT should be further explored.

Development of a FT3-related prognostic model for patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

This study aimed to develop a prediction model for the prognosis of patients with Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). 122 patients were divided into survival group and death group according to 90-day prognosis after diagnosis. Risk factors affecting the prognosis were identified by the logistic regression analysis and then were used to establish an FT3-related prediction model. Age, proportion of liver cirrhosis, AST, TBil, INR, Cr, Na, WBC, and several scores (CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-OF, and AARC scores) of the death group were significantly higher than that of the survival group on admission. FT3 and Na were protective factors for the prognosis of patients; Age, TBil, INR, HE grading, and Cr were risk factors. FT3 levels were (2.79 ± 0.34) (95%CI 2.73-2.87) pmol/L for the survival group and (2.20 ± 0.20) (95%CI 2.11-2.29) pmol/L for the death group. The level of FT3 in survival group was significantly higher than that of the death group in patients regardless of gender, initial liver disease, and liver failure stages (P < 0.05). The ROC curve for FT3-related prognostic model score was 0.923 (95%CI 0.809-0.947), significantly higher than that of the CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C OF, and AARC scores (P < 0.001). The FT3-related prediction model has good predictive value for 90-day prognosis.

Risk factors of the post-reperfusion syndrome during orthotopic liver transplantation: a clinical observational study

Background

Post reperfusion syndrome (PRS) is a relatively common and life-threatening complication during orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). It is associated with poor patient and transplanted liver outcomes.

Objective

This study aimed to compare the risk factors of PRS during OLT.

Design

Clinical-epidemiological observational retrospective study.

Setting

We gathered the records of patients who underwent OLT in 3 years, from May 22, 2016, to May 22, 2019, in Namazi and Bu-Ali Sina organ transplantation hospitals.

Patients

In this study, we assessed 1182 patients who underwent OLT. Patients were divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of PRS.

Main outcome measures

Diagnosing the predictors of PRS was the primary outcome of this study.

Results

Results showed that age > 60 years, Child-Pugh scores C, higher Model End Stage liver disease score, and preoperative sodium < 130 mmol/l (parameters of the liver recipient), increase in cold ischemic time (the donors’ parameters), and the classical technique (the surgical parameters) were the strong predictors of PRS.

Conclusions

The results indicated that underlying liver disease was not the predictor of PRS in the presence of other risk factors; therefore, clinicians have to consider these risk factors in patients undergoing OLT.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12871-022-01635-3.

Minimizing the risk of small-for-size syndrome after liver surgery

BACKGROUND

Primary and secondary liver tumors are not always amenable to resection due to location and size. Inadequate future liver remnant (FLR) may prevent patients from having a curative resection or may result in increased postoperative morbidity and mortality from complications related to small-for-size syndrome (SFSS).

DATA SOURCES

This comprehensive review analyzed the principles, mechanism and risk factors associated with SFSS and presented current available options in the evaluation of FLR when planning liver surgery. In addition, it provided a detailed description of specific modalities that can be used before, during or after surgery, in order to optimize the conditions for a safe resection and minimize the risk of SFSS.

RESULTS

Several methods which aim to reduce tumor burden, preserve healthy liver parenchyma, induce hypertrophy of FLR or prevent postoperative complications help minimize the risk of SFSS.

CONCLUSIONS

With those techniques the indications of radical treatment for patients with liver tumors have significantly expanded. The successful outcome depends on appropriate patient selection, the individualization and modification of interventions and the right timing of surgery.

The Significant Morbidity and Mortality Indicators in Patients of Cirrhosis

Background: Cirrhosis progression varies greatly from patient to patient due to a variety of factors, including hepatic reserve, cirrhosis etiology, and the presence of hepatocellular cancer. As a result, determining a prognosis in a patient with cirrhosis remains a difficult task. For nearly three decades, the Child-Pugh score (CPS) has been the gold standard for determining the prognosis of cirrhosis. In the last two decades, many prognostic models and scores like a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score, peripheral blood lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) have been presented to predict prognosis in patients with cirrhosis and to choose the best therapy option. The aim of our study is to determine which score is more effective in predicting three-month mortality and whether these scores are equally effective in predicting short-term outcomes.

Materials & methods: In this hospital-based longitudinal study, we analyzed 140 patients with cirrhosis of liver visiting All India Institute of Medical Sciences Bhopal between July 2019 and July 2020. All the 140 patients were followed up for three months to establish short-term outcomes. The blood investigations were done at the time of presentation from all the patients and after three months in the survivors. Various scores were calculated.

Results: The majority of patients (47%) were in Child-Pugh class C. Mean MELD score was 13.54, LMR score was 1.96 and CLIF-SOFA score was 5. The total bilirubin, serum creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), total leukocyte count, absolute monocyte count, CPS, MELD, CLIF-SOFA were significantly higher in a non-surviving group as compared to the surviving group, whereas the albumin and LMR significantly decreased in the non-surviving group. On performing multivariate regression, LMR and CLIF-SOFA were significant independent risk factors of mortality after adjusting for confounding factors. All the parameters had significant discriminatory power to predict mortality. Discriminatory power of CLIF-SOFA (AUC 0.808; 95% CI: 0.733 to 0.870) was excellent and discriminatory power of CPS (AUC 0.792; 95% CI: 0.716 to 0.856), MELD score (AUC 0.765; 95% CI: 0.685 to 0.832) and LMR (AUC 0.75; 95% CI: 0.669 to 0.819) was acceptable. Among all the parameters, CLIF-SOFA was the best predictor of mortality at a cut-off point of >5 with 80.80% chances of correctly predicting mortality.

Conclusion: The significant morbidity and mortality indicators are high total bilirubin, high creatinine, high INR, high TLC, low platelet count, and low albumin. Among the various scores, CLIF-SOFA is a better predictor of mortality and morbidity. Low LMR and high CLIF-SOFA are significant independent risk factors of mortality at three months.

[Risk factors of surgical treatment in patients with liver cirrhosis]

OBJECTIVE

To optimize selection of patient for surgical treatment of comorbidities and complications of liver cirrhosis (LC) via analysis of perioperative risk factors.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

There were 610 patients with LC and comorbidities who underwent surgical treatment between 2015 and 2021 at the Regional Clinical Hospital No. 2. Thirty (4.9%) patients died. We analyzed Child-Pugh and MELD scores, Mayo Postoperative Surgical Risk Score and Charlson comorbidity index to predict postoperative mortality.

RESULTS

Perioperative risk in patients with LC depends on the type of surgery, degree of surgical invasiveness, liver function, and severity of LC-associated complications.

CONCLUSION

A thorough preoperative assessment of patients and adequate perioperative management are required to reduce the risk of mortality.

liver cirrhosis, surgical treatment, risk factors.

Correlation between liver volume and liver weight in a cohort with chronic liver disease: a semiautomated CT-volumetry study

BACKGROUND

To estimate the optimal density coefficient for conversion of liver volume into liver weight in patients with chronic liver disease based on semiautomated CT-liver volumetry data and the histologic Ishak score of explanted liver.

METHODS

A total of 114 patients (39 female; age, 46±20 years) with chronic liver diseases who underwent liver transplantation between January 2010 and September 2020 were identified over a patient chart search at our institution and subsequently analyzed in retrospect. All patients had contrast-enhanced CT-examinations (mean, 24 days) to liver transplantation. Liver volume was calculated by a semiautomated software and results compared with the liver weight registered by the pathologist. Each explanted liver was histologically scored into six classes according to the Ishak classification where the categories were subgrouped based on recommendation of the pathologists into the following categories 0-3, 4-5 and 6.

RESULTS

Mean liver volume was 1,870±1,195, 1,162±679 and 1,278±510 mL for the categories 0-3, 4-5 and 6, respectively. Mean liver weight was 1,624±999, 1,082±669 and 1,346±559 g for the categories 0-3, 4-5 and 6, respectively. A coefficient of 0.92±0.22, 0.98±0.28 and 1.06±0.20 g/mL was found at best for conversion of liver volume into liver weight in these subgroups. Differences between Ishak-subgroups proved significant (0.002). In 4 patients with cystic liver disease, density coefficients varied significantly and were found generally lower compared to the other liver disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results yielded significant differences between the density coefficients calculated along with the Ishak score and also for the subgroup with cystic liver disease.

The evaluation of serum lipid profile in chronic Hepatitis B patients at a Tertiary Care Centre in Western India: A cross-sectional study

Introduction

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is known as a metabolovirus due to its impact on lipid and glucose metabolism in the liver. Previous literature showed a trend of hypolipidemia and reduced risk of metabolic syndrome in hepatitis B surface antigen-positive patients. However, data from the Indian population are lacking. We evaluate the relation of lipid profile with HBV infection and severity of liver disease.

Materials and Methods

This was an observational cross-sectional study in which 50 patients with chronic hepatitis B and 43 anthropometrically matched seronegative controls were enrolled. Demographical, clinical, and laboratory data including lipid profile (high-density lipoprotein [HDL], low-density lipoprotein [LDL], triglycerides, and total cholesterol [TC]) were collected. Seropositive patients were categorized based on prognostic models (model for end-stage liver disease [MELD] and Child-Pugh score) for further analysis.

Results

Our study revealed significant low levels of serum TC, HDL, and LDL cholesterol in hepatitis B patients compared to seronegative controls (133.06 vs. 162.39, 35.56 vs. 43.65, and 76.62 vs. 99.95 mg/dl respectively, P < 0.05). The patients with high MELD and Child-Pugh score were associated with hypolipidemia. Significant low levels of LDL and TC were observed in Child-Pugh class C in comparison to class A (94.8 vs. 149.2 and 50.6 vs. 87.9 mg/dl respectively, P < 0.05).

Conclusions

A significant reduction in various lipid parameters was seen with chronic hepatitis B. Furthermore, prognostic score (high MELD and Child-Pugh score) were associated with hypolipidemia.

Value of Liver Function Tests in Cirrhosis

The liver comprises both parenchymal and non-parenchymal cells with varying functions. Cirrhosis is often complicated by the development of portal hypertension and its associated complications. Hence, assessment of liver in cirrhosis should include assessment of its structural, function of both hepatic and non-hepatic tissue and haemodynamic assessment of portal hypertension. There is no single test that can evaluate all functions of liver and assess prevalence and severity of portal hypertension. Commonly available tests like serum bilirubin, liver enzymes (alanine [ALT] and aspartate aminotransferase [AST], serum alkaline phosphatase [ALP], gamma glutamyl transpeptidase [GGT]), serum albumin and prothrombin time for assessment of liver functions partly assess liver functions. quantitative liver functions like indocyanine clearance tests [ICG-K], methacetin breath test [MBT] were developed to assess dynamic status of liver but has its own limitation and availability. Imaging based assessment of liver by transient elastography, MRI based 99 mTc-coupled asialoglycoprotein mebrofenin scan help the clinician to assess liver function, functional volume of liver left after surgery and portal hypertension [PH]. Hepatic venous pressure gradient still remains the gold standard for the assessment of portal hypertension but is invasive and not available in all centres. Combinations of blood parameters in form of various indices like fibrosis score of 4 [FIB-4], Lok index, scores like model for end stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte Pugh score are commonly used for assessing liver function in clinical practice.

Bacteraemia, sepsis and antibiotic resistance in Australian patients with cirrhosis: a population-based study

Objective

Multiple factors predispose patients with cirrhosis to sepsis and/or bacteraemia and this has a high mortality rate. Within different geographical regions there are marked differences in the prevalence of infection with multidrug-resistant organisms (MDR). This study examined risk factors for and outcomes of sepsis/bacteraemia in public hospital admissions with cirrhosis in the state of Queensland, Australia, over the last decade, along with the bacterial pathogens responsible and their antibiotic susceptibility profiles.

Design

A population-based retrospective cohort study of public hospital admissions was conducted from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2017. Hospital admissions for patients with a diagnosis of cirrhosis were categorised by the presence or absence of sepsis/bacteraemia. Clinical and sociodemographic information including cirrhosis aetiology, complications and comorbidities, and in-hospital mortality were examined using bivariate and multivariate analyses. In patients with bacteraemia, the type and prevalence of bacteria and antibiotic resistance was assessed.

Results

Sepsis/bacteraemia was present in 3951 of 103 165 hospital admissions with a diagnosis of cirrhosis. Factors associated with sepsis/bacteraemia included disease aetiology, particularly primary sclerosing cholangitis (adj-OR 15.09, 95% CI 12.24 to 18.60), alcohol (adj-OR 2.90, 95% CI 2.71 to 3.09), Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥3 (adj-OR 3.54, 95% CI 3.19 to 3.93) and diabetes (adj-OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.01). Overall case-fatality rate among admissions with sepsis/bacteraemia was 27.7% (95% CI 26.3% to 29.1%) vs 3.7% (95% CI 3.6% to 3.8%) without sepsis/bacteraemia. In-hospital death was significantly associated with sepsis/bacteraemia (adj-OR 6.50, 95% CI 5.95 to 7.11). The most common organisms identified were Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus, present in 22.9% and 18.1%, respectively, of the 2265 admissions with a positive blood culture. The prevalence of MDR bacteria was low (5.6%)

Conclusion

Morbidity and mortality related to sepsis/bacteraemia in patients with cirrhosis remains a critical clinical problem.

Designing Clinical Trials in Wilson's Disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Wilson's disease (WD) is an autosomal-recessive disorder caused by ATP7B gene mutations leading to pathological accumulation of copper in the liver and brain. Adoption of initial treatments for WD was based on empirical observations. These therapies are effective, but there are still unmet needs for which treatment modalities are being developed. An increase of therapeutical trials is anticipated.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The first Wilson Disease Aarhus Symposium (May 2019) included a workshop on randomized clinical trial design. The authors of the article were organizers or presented during this workshop, and this article presents their consensus on the design of clinical trials for WD, addressing trial population, treatment comparators, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and treatment endpoints. To achieve adequate recruitment of patients with this rare disorder, the study groups should include all clinical phenotypes and treatment-experienced as well as treatment-naïve patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The primary study endpoint should be clinical or a composite endpoint until appropriate surrogate endpoints are validated. Standardization of clinical trials will permit pooling of data and allow for better treatment comparisons, as well as reduce the future numbers of patients needed per trial.

Prognosis of liver transplantation: Does postoperative ileus matter?

Background

Nowadays, liver transplantation has become a main therapy for end-stage liver disease. However, studies show that there are high mortality and severe complications after liver transplantation. Although gastrointestinal dysfunction is a common and major complication after liver transplantation, there was rarely relative research. This study aims to elucidate the factors about ileus after liver transplantation and patients’ survival.

Methods

We collected and analyzed the data (n = 318, 2016–2019) from the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University. After excluding cases, a total of 293 patients were included for this study. The subjects were divided into a non-ileus group and an ileus group. We reviewed 38 variables (including preoperative, operative and postoperative relative factors). Additionally, other complications after liver transplantation and survival data were compared between two groups.

Results

Of the 293 patients, 23.2% (n = 68) experienced postoperative ileus. Ileus patients were not different with non-ileus patients in preoperative, operative and postoperative factors. HBV-positive patients with ileus had a lower MELD score (P = 0.025), and lower postoperative total bilirubin was correlated with ileus (P = 0.049). Besides, Child–Pugh score of HCC patients with ileus was low (P = 0.029). The complications after liver transplantation were not different between two groups. Compared with the patients without ileus, the patients with ileus had a higher mortality rate.

Conclusion

According to our research, ileus-patients had a lower 1-year survival rates. The preoperative MELD score and postoperative total bilirubin of HBV-positive patients with ileus were lower, and Child–Pugh score of HCC patients with ileus was also lower.

Diabetes mellitus and postoperative blood glucose value help predict posthepatectomy liver failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Many complications after hepatectomy can lead to perioperative death, among which posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is the leading one. Existing studies suggest that one of the most important risk factors for PHLF is cirrhosis. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is an important factor in the occurrence of cirrhosis, and the exact relationship between HBV infection and PHLF is not obvious. Diabetes mellitus and postoperative blood glucose are closely associated with liver regeneration, but its exact relationship with PHLF remains unclear.

Methods

We collected clinical indicators from 920 adult patients treated at the Liver Surgery and Transplantation Center of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from April 2009 and April 2019. We conducted a univariate analysis find out the risk factors of PHLF, follow by a multivariate analysis to ascertain the independent risk factors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to evaluate the predictive efficiency of each risk factor.

Results

Following hepatectomy, 205 (22.2%) of patients were diagnosed with PHLF. Several variables were confirmed to related with PHLF significantly: diabetes [P<0.01, odds ratio (OR) =10.845, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.450-21.579], HBV (P<0.01, OR =0.345, 95% CI: 0.187-0.635), blood glucose on the first postoperative day (post-BG1) (P=0.027, OR =1.059, 95% CI: 1.006-1.115), blood glucose on the third postoperative day (post-BG3) (P=0.021, OR =1.085, 95% CI: 1.012-1.162), blood glucose on the fifth postoperative day (post-BG5) (P=0.014, OR =1.119, 95% CI: 1.023-1.225), postoperative total bilirubin (post-TB) (P<0.01, OR =1.160, 95% CI: 1.133-1.187), and liver cirrhosis (P<0.01, OR =0.982, 95% CI: 0.561-1.717) identified to be independent risk factors of PHLF.

Conclusions

Diabetes, HBV, post-BG1, post-BG3, and post-BG5 are related to the development of PHLF, and diabetes and post-BG can be used as predictors of the development of PHLF in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

A New Score to Assess the Perioperative Period of the Cancer Patient Undergoing Non-Palliative Elective Surgery: A Retrospective Evaluation of a Case Report by PERIDIA Score

The complexity of cancer patients and the use of advanced and demolitive surgical techniques frequently need post-operatory ICU hospitalization. To increase safety and to select the best medical strategies for the patient, a multidisciplinary team has performed a new peri-operatory assessment, arising from evidence-based literature data. Verifying that most of the cancer patients, admitted to the intensive care unit, undergo major surgery with localizations in the supramesocolic thoraco-abdominal area, the team focused the attention on supramesocolic peridiaphragmatic cancer surgery. Some scores already in use in clinical practice were selected for the peri-operatory evaluation process. None of them evaluate parameters relating to the entire peri-operative period. In detail, only a few study models were found that concern the assessment of the intra-operative period. Therefore, we wanted to see if using a mix of validated scores, it was possible to build a single evaluation score (named PERIDIAphragmatic surgery score or PERIDIA-score) for the entire peri-operative period that could be obtained at the end of the patient's hospitalization period in post-operative ICU. The main property sought with the creation of the PERIDIA-score is the proportionality between the score and the incidence of injuries, deaths, and the length of stay in the ward. This property could organize a tailor-made therapeutic path for the patient based on pre-rehabilitation, physiotherapy, activation of social assistance services, targeted counseling, collaborations with the continuity of care network. Furthermore, if the pre-operative score is particularly high, it could suggest different or less invasive therapeutic options, and if the intra-operative score is particularly high, it could suggest a prolongation of hospitalization in ICU. The retrospective prospective study conducted on 83 patients is still ongoing. The first data would seem to prove an increase of clinical complications in patients who were assigned a one-third score with respect to the maximum (16/48) of PERIDIA-score. Moreover, patients with a 10/16 score within each phase of the evaluation (pre, peri, and post) more frequently develop injuries. In the light of these evidence, the 29-point score assigned to our patient can be considered as predictive for the subsequent critical and fatal complications the patient faced up.

Application of various surgical techniques in liver transplantation: a retrospective study

Background

Surgical techniques of liver transplantation have continually evolved and have been modified. We retrospectively analyzed a single-center case series and compared the advantages and disadvantages of each method.

Methods

Six-hundred and seventy-four recipients’ perioperative data were assessed and analyzed stratified by different surgical technics [modified classic (MC), modified piggyback (MPB) and classic piggyback (CPB)].

Results

MELD score and Child-Pugh scores was significantly higher in CPB groups (P=0.008 and 0.003, respectively). Anhepatic time in MPB group was longer than those in CPB group (P<0.05). The operation duration in MPB group was significantly longer than those in MC group and CPB group (P=0.003). Three patients had outflow obstruction (P=0.035). The overall survival in MPB group were better than those in MC group and CPB group in general comparison (P<0.001). In patients with preoperative creatine >120 µmol/L, the overall survival in MC group was worst (P<0.001). In patients with a high MELD score (>24), the overall survival in MPB group tended to be the best (P<0.001).

Conclusions

The advantages and disadvantages are different for these three surgical techniques. A reasonable operation technique should be adopted considering the patient's unique condition to ensure the stability of hemodynamics.

Pleural Effusions Identified by Point-of-Care Ultrasound Predict Poor Outcomes in Decompensated Cirrhosis

Chronic liver disease (CLD) may be associated with pleural effusions (PEs). This article prospectively evaluates whether detection of PEs on thoracic ultrasound (TUS) at the bedside independently predicts mortality and length of stay (LOS) in hospitalized patients with a decompensated CLD. A total of 116 consecutive inpatients with decompensated cirrhosis underwent antero-posterior chest radiographs (CXR) and TUS to detect PEs. Their median age was 54 y (interquartile range, 47-62), 90 (70.6%) were male, and 61 (52.6%) fell into the Child-Pugh class C categorization. TUS identified PEs in 58 (50%) patients, half of which were small enough to preclude thoracentesis. CXR failed to recognize approximately 40% of PEs seen on TUS. The identification of PEs by TUS was associated with a longer LOS (10 vs. 5.5 d, p < 0.001) and double mortality (39.7% vs. 20.7%, p = 0.021). In multivariate analysis, PEs were independently related to poor survival (hazard ratio 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-4.25; p = 0.044). Patients with both Child-Pugh C stage and PEs had the lowest survival rate (70 vs. 317 d, p = 0.001). In conclusion, PEs identified by TUS in hospitalized patients with decompensated CLD independently predict a poor outcome and portend a longer LOS.

Relation between levels of toll-like receptors 3 and 7 and clinical profile of Child-Pugh B cirrhotic patients

Aim of the study

Growing data show that toll-like receptors (TLRs) have considerable roles in the pathogenesis of many liver diseases. We aimed to study the relation between TLR3 and TLR7 levels and clinical manifestations of liver decompensation among hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected Child-Pugh B patients.

Material and methods

This study included 60 adult patients with Child-Pugh B liver cirrhosis on top of untreated HCV infection. We performed a two-step clustering algorithm depending on TLR-3 gene expression, TLR-7 gene expression, and other influential patients’ characteristics.

Results

Patients were optimally divided into 2 clusters, each cluster containing 30 patients. The average silhouette score of the clustering algorithm was 0.52, indicating a good clustering power of the model. Patients in cluster 1 showed lower relative expression of TLR3 (0.188 vs. 0.29). The same was true of TLR7 (0.20 vs. 0.31). All patients within cluster 1 had lower limb edema and 93% of them had ascites. On the other hand, no one within cluster 2 had ascites or lower limb edema. The mean platelet count was lower in patients within cluster 1 (74,000 vs. 100,000 cell/mm³). The mean international normalized ratio (INR) level was higher in cluster 1 (1.61 vs. 1.3). The mean Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was higher in cluster 1 (15 vs. 10).

Conclusions

From these results, we can suggest that lower TLR3 and TLR7 can lead to worse clinical manifestations among patients with HCV-related liver cirrhosis. A deeper exploration of this point can open the door for new approaches for managing decompensated cirrhosis.

A New Scoring System for Predicting In-hospital Death in Patients Having Liver Cirrhosis With Esophageal Varices

Introduction: Liver cirrhosis is caused by the development of various acute and chronic liver diseases. Esophageal varices is a common and serious complication of liver cirrhosis during decompensation. Despite the development of various treatments, the prognosis for liver cirrhosis with esophageal varices (LCEV) remains poor. We aimed to establish and validate a nomogram for predicting in-hospital death in LCEV patients.

Methods: Data on LCEV patients were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III and IV (MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV) database. The patients from MIMIC-III were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Training cohort was used for establishing the model, validation and MIMIC-IV cohorts were used for validation. The independent prognostic factors for LCEV patients were determined using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method and forward stepwise logistic regression. We then constructed a nomogram to predict the in-hospital death of LCEV patients. Multiple indicators were used to validate the nomogram, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification index (NRI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Nine independent prognostic factors were identified by using LASSO and stepwise regressions: age, Elixhauser score, anion gap, sodium, albumin, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, vasopressor use, and bleeding. The nomogram was then constructed and validated. The AUC value of the nomogram was 0.867 (95% CI = 0.832–0.904) in the training cohort, 0.846 (95% CI = 0.790–0.896) in the validation cohort and 0.840 (95% CI = 0.807–0.872) in the MIMIC-IV cohort. High AUC values indicated the good discriminative ability of the nomogram, while the calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test results demonstrated that the nomogram was well-calibrated. Improvements in NRI and IDI values suggested that our nomogram was superior to MELD-Na, CAGIB, and OASIS scoring system. DCA curves indicated that the nomogram had good value in clinical applications.

Conclusion: We have established the first prognostic nomogram for predicting the in-hospital death of LCEV patients. The nomogram is easy to use, performs well, and can be used to guide clinical practice, but further external prospective validation is still required.

Non-invasive biomarkers of Fontan-associated liver disease

Background & Aims

Fontan-associated liver disease (FALD) has emerged as an important morbidity following surgical palliation of single ventricle congenital heart disease. In this study, non-invasive biomarkers that may be associated with severity of FALD were explored.

Methods

A retrospective cohort of paediatric patients post-Fontan who underwent liver biopsy at a high volume at a paediatric congenital heart disease centre was reviewed.

Results

Among 106 patients, 66% were male and 69% were Hispanic. The mean age was 14.4 ± 3.5 years, and biopsy was performed 10.8 ± 3.6 years post-Fontan. The mean BMI was 20.8 ± 5 kg/m², with 27.4% meeting obesity criteria. Bridging fibrosis was observed in 35% of patients, and 10.4% of all patients had superimposed steatosis. Bridging fibrosis was associated with lower platelet counts (168.3 ± 58.4 vs. 203.9 ± 65.8 K/μl for congestive hepatic fibrosis score [CHFS] 0–2b, p = 0.009), higher bilirubin (1.7 ± 2.2 vs. 0.9 ± 0.7 mg/dl, p = 0.0090), higher aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index [APRI] and fibrosis-4 [FIB-4] scores (APRI: 0.5 ± 0.3 vs. 0.4 ± 0.1, p <0.01 [AUC: 0.69] and FIB-4: 0.6 ± 0.4 vs. 0.4 ± 0.2, p <0.01 [AUC: 0.69]), and worse overall survival (median 2 years follow-up post-biopsy, p = 0.027). Regression modelling of temporal changes in platelet counts before and after biopsy correlated with fibrosis severity (p = 0.005).

Conclusions

In this large, relatively homogeneous adolescent population in terms of age, ethnicity, and Fontan duration, bridging fibrosis was observed in 35% of patients within the first decade post-Fontan. Bridging fibrosis was associated with worse survival. Changes in platelet counts, even years before biopsy, and APRI/FIB-4 scores had modest discriminatory power in identifying patients with advanced fibrosis. Steatosis may represent an additional risk factor for disease progression in obese patients. Further prospective studies are necessary to develop strategies to screen for FALD in the adolescent population.

Lay summary

In this study, the prevalence of Fontan-associated liver disease (FALD) in the young adult population and clinical variables that may be predictive of fibrosis severity or adverse outcomes were explored. Several lab-based, non-invasive markers of bridging fibrosis in FALD were identified, suggesting that these values may be followed as a prognostic biomarker for FALD progression in the adolescent population.

•

FALD is universal within 10 years post-Fontan, with 35% of patients having bridging fibrosis.

•

Of our adolescent patient population, 10% had concomitant hepatic steatosis, which was associated with obesity.

•

Regression modelling demonstrates that temporal changes in platelet counts correlate with severity of fibrosis in FALD.

•

AST-to-platelet ratio index and FIB-4 scores correlate with bridging fibrosis with a high specificity.

•

Bridging fibrosis in FALD is associated with worse survival.

Comparison of Scores for Child-Pugh Criteria and Standard and Modified Models for End-Stage Liver Disease to Assess Cardiac Hepatopathy in Heart Transplant Recipients

OBJECTIVES

Congestive hepatopathy as a result of advanced heart failure correlates with poor outcomes. Thus, risk-scoring systems have been established to assess the risks for cardiac surgery and hearttransplant, although these systems were originally designed to measure mortality risk in patients with end-stage liver disease. We compared the scores for the Child-Pugh criteria andstandardandmodifiedModels for End-Stage LiverDisease to evaluate the effect of preoperative liver dysfunction on postoperative outcomes inpatients with heart failure who underwent heart transplant.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data of 60 consecutive patients who underwent orthotopic heart transplant were analyzed from a historical cohort study from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2018. We calculated the scores for Child-Pugh criteria and the standard and modified Models for End-Stage Liver Disease.

RESULTS

Of the 60 total patients, 48 were male patients, with a median age of 43 years (range, 13-69 years). Twenty patients died before the end of the study. The causes of death were cardiac, liver, and renal diseases. The mortality risk increased 25% (interquartile range, 0.05-0.51) for the patients with 1 point higher score compared with the patients with 1 point lower score based on a modified Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative liver dysfunction has a significant effect on patient survival. The modified Modelfor End-Stage LiverDisease scoring system could be an effective predictor of perioperative risk stratification for patients with congestive hepatopathy who are undergoing cardiac transplant.

Risk of recurrent hepatic encephalopathy in patients with liver cirrhosis: a German registry study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) show low quality of life, recurrent hospitalizations and an increased mortality. We aimed to assess the natural course of patients after a recent episode of overt HE and to identify risk factors for HE recurrence in Germany.

METHODS

Fifteen sites took part in a prospective, observational study including patients with liver cirrhosis who had been hospitalized for HE within 3 months before recruitment. Clinical data, psychometric hepatic encephalopathy score (PHES) and critical flicker frequency were assessed quarterly for 1 year. Primary endpoint was HE recurrence requiring hospitalization, all-cause-mortality was treated as a competing risk factor.

RESULTS

From January 2014 to March 2016, a total of 115 patients were recruited. Overall 14 premature deaths were documented. For 78 subjects follow-up data were available in accordance with the protocol. After a median of 118 days, more than half of the per-protocol cohort was readmitted to hospital due to HE (N = 34) or died (N = 11). The risk for hospitalization was significantly increased in patients who had been recruited by liver transplant centers (P = 0.003), had had frequent HE relapses prior to recruitment (P = <0.0001) or an abnormal PHES result of <-4 (P = 0.044). Abnormal PHES results barely missed level of significance as an independent risk factor for re-hospitalization in a multivariable competing risk model (P = 0.093).

CONCLUSION

Patients with a history of HE are at high risk for the development of recurrent overt HE demanding hospitalization. The PHES test may aid in detection, monitoring and risk stratification of recurrent HE.

CRP and the Prognosis of Patients with Cirrhosis

The theory of vasodilation partially explains the development and progression of liver cirrhosis and is completed by the theory of inflammation. C-reactive protein (CRP) is used as a surrogate marker of inflammation in studies; however, there is not sufficient data that would reflect the role of this protein in cirrhosis yet. The objective of this study was to determine the use of CRP value in the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis. In "Material and method" section we described a clinical prospective trial with 102 participants represented by patients with cirrhosis of various etiologies in a tertiary hospital, each monitored throughout a period of 12 months after the collection of CRP. The results showed that the mean CRP value was 0.7+/0.09 mg/dL (CI 0.59-0.90) in patients who did not decompensate throughout the trial and 1.58+/0.4 mg/dL (CI 1.76-2.30) in those who did decompensate, with a statistically significant difference (p=0.045). In rehospitalized patients versus those without any hospitalization, the mean CRP values were 1.35 mg/dL and 0.8 mg/dL, respectively (p=0.032). The increased values of this parameter were positively correlated with the number of hospitalizations (rs=0.35, p=0.05). A CRP value below the threshold of 0.62 mg/dL indicates a smaller probability of future decompensation in liver cirrhosis patients. The conclusion of this study is that CRP influences the secondary endpoints, including cirrhosis decompensation and patient rehospitalization. It can be added to the existing studies.

Evaluation of using fresh frozen plasma for patients with cirrhosis at a tertiary healthcare center in Turkey: Strict transfusion policies are essential

AIM

Management of blood transfusions is a critical issue, especially in cirrhotic patients, because of the absence of national policies in many countries. Fresh frozen plasma (FFP) is a common blood component misused excessively in various clinical situations and cirrhosis patients without any scientific rationale. We evaluated the FFP transfusions in patients with cirrhosis at our tertiary care hospital.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

The cases with cirrhosis diagnosed between 2014 and 2020 were selected using the hospital database. The appropriateness of FFP transfusion was determined based on the Practice Guidance by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases and Italian guidelines.

RESULT

Two hundred and six liver cirrhosis patients were identified who received FFP transfusion. The median age was 63 (22-94). Of the 206 patients, 79 (38.3 %) were female, and 127 (61.7 %) were men. The most common causes of liver cirrhosis were alcohol (27.7 %). 45.6 % of the patients were in Child-Pugh Class C. We found 62.1 % of FFP replacements were inappropriately used. Most inappropriate use of FFP (22.8 %, n = 47) occurred to correct prolonged INR in the absence of bleeding.

CONCLUSION

To avoid inappropriate usage of FFP, regular utilization reviews and formal education programs can be helpful. Our clinic has planned to arrange educational programs for physicians to use blood products appropriately and minimize transfusion-related side effects.

Gene Expression and Protein Abundance of Hepatic Drug Metabolizing Enzymes in Liver Pathology

Hepatic drug metabolizing enzymes (DMEs) markedly affect drug pharmacokinetics. Because liver diseases may alter enzymatic function and in turn drug handling and clinical efficacy, we investigated DMEs expression in dependence on liver pathology and liver failure state. In 5 liver pathologies (hepatitis C, alcoholic liver disease, autoimmune hepatitis, primary biliary cholangitis and primary sclerosing cholangitis) and for the first time stratified according to the Child–Pugh score, 10 CYPs (CYP1A1, CYP1A2, CYP2B6, CYP2C8, CYP2C9, CYP2C19, CYP2D6, CYP2E1, CYP3A4 and CYP3A5) and 4 UGTs (UGT1A1, UGT1A3, UGT2B7 and UGT2B) enzymes were quantified for protein abundance (LC-MS/MS) and gene expression (qRT-PCR). CYP2E1 was the most vulnerable enzyme, and its protein levels were significantly reduced just in Child–Pugh class A livers. The protein abundance of CYP1A1, CYP2B6, CYP2C19, CYP2D6 as well as UGT1A1, UGT1A3 and UGT2B15 was relatively stable in the course of progression of liver function deterioration. Alcoholic liver disease and primary biliary cholangitis were involved in the most prominent changes in the protein abundances, with downregulation of 6 (CYP1A2, CYP2C8, CYP2D6, CYP2E1, CYP3A4, UGT2B7) and 5 (CYP1A1, CYP2B6, CYP2C8, CYP2E1, CYP3A4) significantly downregulated enzymes, respectively. The results of the study demonstrate that DMEs protein abundance is affected both by the type of liver pathology as well as functional state of the organ.

NEUTROPHIL-LYMPHOCYTE RATIO PREDICTS SHORT-TERM MORTALITY IN PATIENTS HOSPITALIZED FOR ACUTE DECOMPENSATION OF CIRRHOSIS

BACKGROUND

Individuals with cirrhosis have a chronic systemic inflammation associated with an immune dysfunction, affecting the progression of the liver disease. The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was proposed as a marker of systemic inflammatory response and survival in patients with cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the prognostic role of NLR in cirrhotic patients and its relation with inflammatory cytokines(IL-6, IL-10 and IL-17).

METHODS

In this prospective study two groups were evaluated: 1) Stable cirrhotic in outpatient follow-up (n=193); 2) Hospitalized cirrhotic for acute decompensation for at least 48 hours (n=334) with admission and 48 hours tests evaluation. Circulating inflammatory cytokines were available for 130 hospitalized patients.

RESULTS

In outpatients with stable cirrhosis, NLR correlated with MELD score and other variables associated with severity of disease. However, after a median of 32 months of follow up NLR was not associated with mortality (HR 1.058, 95%CI 0.900-1.243; P=0.495). In hospitalized patients, NLR at 48-hour after admission was independently associated with 90-day survival (HR 1.061, 95%CI 1.020-1.103; P=0.003) in multivariate Cox-regression analysis. The 90-day Kaplan-Meier survival probability was 87% for patients with a 48-hour NLR <3.6 and 62% for NLR ≥3.6 (P<0.001). Elevation of NLR in the first 48 hours was also independently associated with mortality (HR 2.038, 95%CI 1295-3207; P=0.002). The 90-day Kaplan-Meier survival probability was 83% when NLR did not increase and 62% when NLR increased (P<0.001). IL-6, IL-10 and IL-17 at admission were positively correlated with both admission and 48-hour NLR. Lower levels of baseline IL-10 were associated with NLR increase during first 48-hour.

CONCLUSION

NLR evaluated at 48 hours of hospitalization and its early increase after admission were independently associated with short-term mortality in patients hospitalized for acute decompensation of cirrhosis.

The MSP-RON pathway regulates liver fibrosis through transforming growth factor beta-dependent epithelial-mesenchymal transition

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis is pathologically important in the liver cirrhosis progression. The epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is crucial for organ fibrosis. Macrophage-stimulating protein (MSP) and its receptor tyrosine kinase, RON, promote cellular EMT. However, their role in liver fibrosis is unclear. Here, we clarify the biological profile, potential mechanisms and therapeutic targets of the MSP-RON pathway in liver fibrosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Macrophage-stimulating protein expression and its correlation with clinicopathological characteristics of cirrhosis were evaluated in 57 clinical cases and a control group. The effect of MSP-RON pathway in liver fibrosis was determined in vitro and in vivo. The therapeutic effects of MSP or RON inhibition on liver fibrosis were evaluated in a mouse liver fibrosis model.

RESULTS

Macrophage-stimulating protein is upregulated in liver cirrhosis, which was associated with poor patient prognosis. The MSP-RON pathway promoted hepatocytes EMT. MSP-RON-induced EMT depends on the transforming growth factor beta (TGF-β) pathway and is regulated by TGF-β inhibitors. In animal models, an MSP blocking antibody and a small molecule inhibitor of RON, BMS-777607, both inhibited liver fibrosis progression.

CONCLUSION

Our study revealed that MSP is an important biomarker in liver cirrhosis progression and can be used to prognose patients. The MSP-RON pathway promotes the EMT of hepatocytes and the progress of fibrosis via a TGF-β related pathway. Consequently, we identified a new treatment strategy for liver cirrhosis through targeted inhibition of MSP/RON. This research increases the understanding of EMT-modulated liver fibrosis and provides new insights into biomarkers and therapeutic targets of liver fibrosis.

Association of lipid profile with decompensation, liver dysfunction, and mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Lipid metabolism is often disrupted in liver cirrhosis. The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of lipid profile on decompensation events, severity of liver dysfunction, and death in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study, 778 patients with lipid profile data were enrolled, and then were divided into 240 and 538 patients with and without liver cirrhosis, respectively. In a cohort study, 314 cirrhotic patients with lipid profile data, who were prospectively followed, were enrolled. Lipid profile included total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-c), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-c), triglycerides (TG), and lipoprotein(a).

RESULTS

In the cross-sectional study, cirrhotic patients with decompensation events had significantly lower levels of TC and lipoprotein(a) than those without; and cirrhotic patients with Child-Pugh class B and C had significantly lower levels of TC, HDL-c, LDL-c, and lipoprotein(a) than those with Child-Pugh class A. In the cohort study, there was an inverse association of survival with TC, HDL-c, and lipoprotein(a) levels; after adjusting for MELD score, TC (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 1.703, P = 0.034) and HDL-c (HR = 2.036, P = 0.005), but not lipoprotein(a) (HR = 1.377, P = 0.191), remained a significant predictor of death; when TC, HDL-c, lipoprotein(a), and MELD score were included in the multivariate Cox regression analysis, HDL-c (HR = 1.844, P = 0.024) was the only independent predictor of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Decreased levels in specific components of lipid profile indicate more decompensation events, worse liver function, and reduced survival in liver cirrhosis. MELD score combined with HDL-c should be promising for the assessment of outcomes of cirrhotic patients.

Top Ten Tips Palliative Care Clinicians Should Know About Prognostication in Critical Illness and Heart, Kidney, and Liver Diseases

Specialty palliative care (PC) clinicians are frequently asked to discuss prognosis with patients and their families. When conveying information about prognosis, PC clinicians need also to discuss the likelihood of prolonged hospitalization, cognitive and functional disabilities, and death. As PC moves further and further upstream, it is crucial that PC providers have a broad understanding of curative and palliative treatments for serious diseases and can collaborate in prognostication with specialists. In this article, we present 10 tips for PC clinicians to consider when caring and discussing prognosis for the seriously ill patients along with their caregivers and care teams. This is the second in a three-part series around prognostication in adult and pediatric PC.

Direct Bilirubin Is More Valuable than Total Bilirubin for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

Background/Aims

Most prognostic prediction models for patients with liver cirrhosis include serum total bilirubin (TB) level as a component. This study investigated prognostic performance of serum direct bilirubin (DB) and developed new DB level-based prediction models for cirrhosis.

Methods

A total of 983 hospitalized patients with liver cirrhosis were included. DB-Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was calculated using MELD score formula, with serum DB level replacing TB level.

Results

Mean age of study population was 56.1 years. Alcoholic liver disease was the most frequent underlying condition (471 patients, 47.9%). Within 6 months, 144 patients (14.6%) died or received liver transplantation due to severe liver dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for prediction of 6-month mortality with DB level was significantly higher than that with TB level (p<0.001). The AUROC of DB-MELD score for prediction of 6-month mortality was significantly higher than that of MELD score (p<0.001). Patients were randomly divided into training (n=492) and validation (n=491) cohorts. A new prognostic prediction model, “Direct Bilirubin, INR, and Creatinine” (DiBIC) score, was developed based on the most significant predictors of 6-month mortality. In training set, AUROC of DiBIC score for prediction of 6-month mortality was 0.892, which was significantly higher than that of the MELD score (0.875, p=0.017), but not different from that of DB-MELD score (0.886, p=0.272). Similar results were observed in validation set.

Conclusions

New prognostic models, DB-MELD and DiBIC scores, have good prognostic performance in liver cirrhosis patients, outperforming other currently available models.