Predicting virus emergence amid evolutionary noise

Multiple Incursions and Recurrent Epidemic Fade-Out of H3N2 Canine Influenza A Virus in the United States

Avian-origin H3N2 canine influenza virus (CIV) transferred to dogs in Asia around 2005, becoming enzootic throughout China and South Korea before reaching the United States in early 2015. To understand the posttransfer evolution and epidemiology of this virus, particularly the cause of recent and ongoing increases in incidence in the United States, we performed an integrated analysis of whole-genome sequence data from 64 newly sequenced viruses and comprehensive surveillance data. This revealed that the circulation of H3N2 CIV within the United States is typified by recurrent epidemic burst-fade-out dynamics driven by multiple introductions of virus from Asia. Although all major viral lineages displayed similar rates of genomic sequence evolution, H3N2 CIV consistently exhibited proportionally more nonsynonymous substitutions per site than those in avian reservoir viruses, which is indicative of a large-scale change in selection pressures. Despite these genotypic differences, we found no evidence of adaptive evolution or increased viral transmission, with epidemiological models indicating a basic reproductive number, R0, of between 1 and 1.5 across nearly all U.S. outbreaks, consistent with maintained but heterogeneous circulation. We propose that CIV's mode of viral circulation may have resulted in evolutionary cul-de-sacs, in which there is little opportunity for the selection of the more transmissible H3N2 CIV phenotypes necessary to enable circulation through a general dog population characterized by widespread contact heterogeneity. CIV must therefore rely on metapopulations of high host density (such as animal shelters and kennels) within the greater dog population and reintroduction from other populations or face complete epidemic extinction.IMPORTANCE The relatively recent appearance of influenza A virus (IAV) epidemics in dogs expands our understanding of IAV host range and ecology, providing useful and relevant models for understanding critical factors involved in viral emergence. Here we integrate viral whole-genome sequence analysis and comprehensive surveillance data to examine the evolution of the emerging avian-origin H3N2 canine influenza virus (CIV), particularly the factors driving ongoing circulation and recent increases in incidence of the virus within the United States. Our results provide a detailed understanding of how H3N2 CIV achieves sustained circulation within the United States despite widespread host contact heterogeneity and recurrent epidemic fade-out. Moreover, our findings suggest that the types and intensities of selection pressures an emerging virus experiences are highly dependent on host population structure and ecology and may inhibit an emerging virus from acquiring sustained epidemic or pandemic circulation.

Viral species, viral genomes and HIV vaccine design: is the rational design of biological complexity a utopia?

A common logical confusion is prevalent in the whole of biology, namely that biological species are viewed both as an abstract category in an hierarchical classification and as a concrete kind of organism. This is partly due to the fact that the vast majority of living organisms do not have common names that differ from the Latin name of the species to which the organism belongs. However, it is somewhat astonishing that the same confusion exists in virology since every virus has a common name, different from the species name to which the virus belongs, which could be used to refer to the infectious viral entity as a concrete material object. The original 1991 ICTV definition of virus species stated that a virus species is a polythetic class of viruses and thus that a species is a class, namely a conceptual construction of the mind and not a physical, real object located in space and time. In 2013, the ICTV redefined a virus species no longer as a class but as a material object consisting of a monophyletic group of viruses that were all physically part of the species. This new definition is reminiscent of an earlier school of thought known as bionominalism which considered species to be concrete individuals rather than classes. Both bionominalism and the new ICTV definition are based on the logical fallacy of reification which treats abstractions such as classes as if they were concrete physical entities. The implications of this new ontology of virus species for virus taxonomy and for the possibility of incorporating nucleotide metagenomic sequences in the current ICTV classification is discussed.

Insect-specific viruses: from discovery to potential translational applications

Over the past decade the scientific community has experienced a new age of virus discovery in arthropods in general, and in insects in particular. Next generation sequencing and advanced bioinformatics tools have provided new insights about insect viromes and viral evolution. In this review, we discuss some high-throughput sequencing technologies used to discover viruses in insects and the challenges raised in data interpretations. Additionally, the discovery of these novel viruses that are considered as insect-specific viruses (ISVs) has gained increasing attention in their potential use as biological agents. As example, we show how the ISV Nhumirim virus was used to reduce West Nile virus transmission when co-infecting the mosquito vector. We also discuss new translational opportunities of using ISVs to limit insect vector competence by using them to interfere with pathogen acquisition, to directly target the insect vector or to confer pathogen resistance by the insect vector.

Bunyavirus Taxonomy: Limitations and Misconceptions Associated with the Current ICTV Criteria Used for Species Demarcation

The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) has implemented numerous changes to the taxonomic classification of bunyaviruses over the years. Whereas most changes have been justified and necessary because of the need to accommodate newly discovered and unclassified viruses, other changes are a cause of concern, especially the decision to demote scores of formerly recognized species to essentially strains of newly designated species. This practice was first described in the seventh taxonomy report of the ICTV and has continued in all subsequent reports. In some instances, viruses that share less than 75% nucleotide sequence identity across their genomes, produce vastly different clinical presentations, possess distinct vector and host associations, have different biosafety recommendations, and occur in nonoverlapping geographic regions are classified as strains of the same species. Complicating the matter is the fact that virus strains have been completely eliminated from ICTV reports; thus, critically important information on virus identities and their associated biological and epidemiological features cannot be readily related to the ICTV classification. Here, we summarize the current status of bunyavirus taxonomy and discuss the adverse consequences associated with the reclassification and resulting omission of numerous viruses of public health importance from ICTV reports. As members of the American Committee on Arthropod-borne Viruses, we encourage the ICTV Bunyavirus Study Group to reconsider their stance on bunyavirus taxonomy, to revise the criteria currently used for species demarcation, and to list additional strains of public and veterinary importance.

Virological Sampling of Inaccessible Wildlife with Drones

There is growing interest in characterizing the viromes of diverse mammalian species, particularly in the context of disease emergence. However, little is known about virome diversity in aquatic mammals, in part due to difficulties in sampling. We characterized the virome of the exhaled breath (or blow) of the Eastern Australian humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae). To achieve an unbiased survey of virome diversity, a meta-transcriptomic analysis was performed on 19 pooled whale blow samples collected via a purpose-built Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV, or drone) approximately 3 km off the coast of Sydney, Australia during the 2017 winter annual northward migration from Antarctica to northern Australia. To our knowledge, this is the first time that UAVs have been used to sample viruses. Despite the relatively small number of animals surveyed in this initial study, we identified six novel virus species from five viral families. This work demonstrates the potential of UAVs in studies of virus disease, diversity, and evolution.

Management of arthropod vector data - Social and ecological dynamics facing the One Health perspective

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are spread by direct and/or indirect contacts between a pathogen or parasite and their hosts. Arthropod vectors have evolved as excellent bloodsuckers, providing an elegant transportation mode for a wide number of infectious agents. The nature of pathogen and parasite transfer and the models used to predict how a disease might spread are magnified in complexity when an arthropod vector is part of the disease cycle. One Health is a worldwide strategy for expanding interdisciplinary collaborations and communications in all aspects of health care for humans, animals and the environment. It would benefit from a structured analysis to address vectoring of arthropod-borne diseases as a dynamic transactional process. This review focused on how arthropod vector data can be used to better model and predict zoonotic disease outbreaks. With enhanced knowledge to describe arthropod vector disease transfer, researchers will have a better understanding about how to model disease outbreaks. As public health research evolves to include more social-ecological systems, the roles of society, ecology, epidemiology, pathogen/parasite evolution and animal behavior can be better captured in the research design. Overall, because of more collaborative data collection processes on arthropod vectors, disease modeling can better predict conditions where EIDs will occur.

Mapping the Evolutionary Potential of RNA Viruses

The deterministic force of natural selection and stochastic influence of drift shape RNA virus evolution. New deep-sequencing and microfluidics technologies allow us to quantify the effect of mutations and trace the evolution of viral populations with single-genome and single-nucleotide resolution. Such experiments can reveal the topography of the genotype-fitness landscapes that shape the path of viral evolution. By combining historical analyses, like phylogenetic approaches, with high-throughput and high-resolution evolutionary experiments, we can observe parallel patterns of evolution that drive important phenotypic transitions. These developments provide a framework for quantifying and anticipating potential evolutionary events. Here, we examine emerging technologies that can map the selective landscapes of viruses, focusing on their application to pathogenic viruses. We identify areas where these technologies can bolster our ability to study the evolution of viruses and to anticipate and possibly intervene in evolutionary events and prevent viral disease.

Intelligence and Stakeholders

This chapter underscores the need for more explicit and strategic engagement of stakeholders (scientists, clinicians, first responders, amongst others) by the intelligence community. The chapter argues that the intelligence community will increasingly rely on their expertise to build more valid and reliable assessments of emerging bio-threats and risks. However, the discussion also identifies some of the limitations and challenges stakeholders themselves have to understanding complex threats and risks.

Meta-transcriptomics and the evolutionary biology of RNA viruses

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Meta-transcriptomics (bulk RNA-Seq) is a powerful new way to characterise viromes.

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Meta-transcriptomic data are changing our understanding of virus evolution.

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Invertebrates harbor an enormous phylogenetic and genomic diversity of RNA viruses.

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Present sampling schemes have only revealed a miniscule fraction of the virosphere.

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The new wealth of virus genomic data presents a major challenge to classification.

Metagenomics is transforming the study of virus evolution, allowing the full assemblage of virus genomes within a host sample to be determined rapidly and cheaply. The genomic analysis of complete transcriptomes, so-called meta-transcriptomics, is providing a particularly rich source of data on the global diversity of RNA viruses and their evolutionary history. Herein we review some of the insights that meta-transcriptomics has provided on the fundamental patterns and processes of virus evolution, with a focus on the recent discovery of a multitude of novel invertebrate viruses. In particular, meta-transcriptomics shows that the RNA virus world is more fluid than previously realized, with relatively frequent changes in genome length and structure. As well as having a transformative impact on studies of virus evolution, meta-transcriptomics presents major new challenges for virus classification, with the greater sampling of host taxa now filling many of the gaps on virus phylogenies that were previously used to define taxonomic groups. Given that most viruses in the future will likely be characterized using metagenomics approaches, and that we have evidently only sampled a tiny fraction of the total virosphere, we suggest that proposals for virus classification pay careful attention to the wonders unearthed in this new age of virus discovery.