Virulence evolution and the trade-off hypothesis: history, current state of affairs and the future

Redundancy-selection trade-off in phenotype-structured populations

Realistic fitness landscapes generally display a redundancy-fitness trade-off: highly fit trait configurations are inevitably rare, while less fit trait configurations are expected to be more redundant. The resulting sub-optimal patterns in the fitness distribution are typically described by means of effective formulations, where redundancy provided by the presence of neutral contributions is modelled implicitly, e.g. with a bias of the mutation process. However, the extent to which effective formulations are compatible with explicitly redundant landscapes is yet to be understood, as well as the consequences of a potential miss-match. Here we investigate the effects of such trade-off on the evolution of phenotype-structured populations, characterised by continuous quantitative traits. We consider a typical replication-mutation dynamics, and we model redundancy by means of two dimensional landscapes displaying both selective and neutral traits. We show that asymmetries of the landscapes will generate neutral contributions to the marginalised fitness-level description, that cannot be described by effective formulations, nor disentangled by the full trait distribution. Rather, they appear as effective sources, whose magnitude depends on the geometry of the landscape. Our results highlight new important aspects on the nature of sub-optimality. We discuss practical implications for rapidly mutant populations such as pathogens and cancer cells, where the qualitative knowledge of their trait and fitness distributions can drive disease management and intervention policies.

Virulence management: Closing the feedback loop between healthcare interventions and virulence evolution

We study the evolution of virulence of an endemic pathogen in response to healthcare interventions which affect host recovery and pathogen transmission. By anticipating the evolutionary response of the pathogen we may develop effective long-term management strategies for controlling the impact of the endemic on the society. To that end, we use standard Adaptive Dynamics techniques in an SIS model. The recovery rate and the transmission rate, both of which can be affected by healthcare interventions, are used as evolutionary control variables. The effect of interventions may be density-independent (self-help based on healthcare instructions) or density-dependent (when assistance of a healthcare worker is required). We consider the evolutionary response of the pathogen both to abrupt changes and to gradual changes in the level of healthcare intervention. Healthcare intervention is optimised for three alternative objectives: minimisation of virulence, minimisation of the probability that an infected individual dies of the disease, and total eradication of the endemic. We find that the optimal strategy may depend on the objective. High levels of healthcare intervention may eradicate the pathogen, but this option may not be available for budgetary reasons or otherwise. Counterintuitively, to minimise virulence, one should keep healthcare interventions at a minimum, while to minimise the probability for an infected individual to die of the disease, both low and high levels of healthcare intervention suffice. Changes in the level of healthcare intervention should be implemented fast (not gradually) in order to avoid sudden changes in pathogen evolution and the possible emergence of multiple simultaneously coexisting pathogen strains.

Water deficit changes the relationships between epidemiological traits of Cauliflower mosaic virus across diverse Arabidopsis thaliana accessions

Changes in plant abiotic environments may alter plant virus epidemiological traits, but how such changes actually affect their quantitative relationships is poorly understood. Here, we investigated the effects of water deficit on Cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV) traits (virulence, accumulation, and vectored-transmission rate) in 24 natural Arabidopsis thaliana accessions grown under strictly controlled environmental conditions. CaMV virulence increased significantly in response to water deficit during vegetative growth in all A. thaliana accessions, while viral transmission by aphids and within-host accumulation were significantly altered in only a few. Under well-watered conditions, CaMV accumulation was correlated positively with CaMV transmission by aphids, while under water deficit, this relationship was reversed. Hence, under water deficit, high CaMV accumulation did not predispose to increased horizontal transmission. No other significant relationship between viral traits could be detected. Across accessions, significant relationships between climate at collection sites and viral traits were detected but require further investigation. Interactions between epidemiological traits and their alteration under abiotic stresses must be accounted for when modelling plant virus epidemiology under scenarios of climate change.

Genetic architecture of transmission stage production and virulence in schistosome parasites

Both theory and experimental data from pathogens suggest that the production of transmission stages should be strongly associated with virulence, but the genetic bases of parasite transmission/virulence traits are poorly understood. The blood fluke Schistosoma mansoni shows extensive variation in numbers of cercariae larvae shed and in their virulence to infected snail hosts, consistent with expected trade-offs between parasite transmission and virulence. We crossed schistosomes from two populations that differ 8-fold in cercarial shedding and in their virulence to Biomphalaria glabrata snail hosts, and determined four-week cercarial shedding profiles in F0 parents, F1 parents and 376 F2 progeny from two independent crosses in inbred snails. Sequencing and linkage analysis revealed that cercarial production is polygenic and controlled by five QTLs (i.e. Quantitative Trait Loci). These QTLs act additively, explaining 28.56% of the phenotypic variation. These results demonstrate that the genetic architecture of key traits relevant to schistosome ecology can be dissected using classical linkage mapping approaches.

Evolutionary dynamics of HIV-1 subtype C in Brazil

The extensive genetic diversity of HIV-1 is a major challenge for the prevention and treatment of HIV-1 infections. Subtype C accounts for most of the HIV-1 infections in the world but has been mainly localized in Southern Africa, Ethiopia and India. For elusive reasons, South Brazil harbors the largest HIV-1 subtype C epidemic in the American continent that is elsewhere dominated by subtype B. To investigate this topic, we collected clinical data and viral sequences from 2611 treatment-naïve patients diagnosed with HIV-1 in Brazil. Molecular epidemiology analysis supported 35 well-delimited transmission clusters of subtype C highlighting transmission within South Brazil but also from the South to all other Brazilian regions and internationally. Individuals infected with subtype C had lower probability to be deficient in CD4⁺ T cells when compared to subtype B. The HIV-1 epidemics in the South was characterized by high female-to-male infection ratios and women-to-child transmission. Our results suggest that HIV-1 subtype C probably takes advantage of longer asymptomatic periods to maximize transmission and is unlikely to outcompete subtype B in settings where the infection of women is relatively less relevant. This study contributes to elucidate factors possibly underlying the geographical distribution and expansion patterns of the most spread HIV-1 subtypes.

Evolutionary trade-offs between growth and survival: The delicate balance between reproductive success and longevity in bacteria

All living cells strive to allocate cellular resources in a way that promotes maximal evolutionary fitness. While there are many competing demands for resources the main decision making process centres on whether to proceed with growth and reproduction or to "hunker down" and invest in protection and survival (or to strike an optimal balance between these two processes). The transcriptional programme active at any given time largely determines which of these competing processes is dominant. At the top of the regulatory hierarchy are the sigma factors that commandeer the transcriptional machinery and determine which set of promoters are active at any given time. The regulatory inputs controlling their activity are therefore often highly complex, with multiple layers of regulation, allowing relevant environmental information to produce the most beneficial response. The tension between growth and survival is also evident in the developmental programme necessary to promote biofilm formation, which is typically associated with low growth rates and enhanced long-term survival. Nucleotide second messengers and energy pools (ATP/ADP levels) play critical roles in determining the fate of individual cells. Regulatory small RNAs frequently play important roles in the decision making processes too. In this review we discuss the trade-off that exists between reproduction and persistence in bacteria and discuss some of the recent advances in this fascinating field.

Passage and the evolution of virulence in invertebrate pathogens: Fundamental and applied perspectives

Understanding the ecological and genetic factors that determine the evolution of virulence has broad value for invertebrate pathology. In addition to helping us understand the fundamental biology of our study organisms this body of theory has important applications in microbial biocontrol. Experimental tests of virulence theory are often carried out in invertebrate models and yet theory rarely informs applied passage experiments that aim to increase or maintain virulence. This review summarizes recent progress in this field with a focus on work most relevant to biological control: the virulence of invertebrate pathogens that are 'obligate killers' and which require cadavers for the production of infectious propagules. We discuss recent theory and fundamental and applied experimental evolution with bacteria, fungi, baculoviruses and nematodes. While passage experiments using baculoviruses have a long history of producing isolates with increased virulence, studies with other pathogens have not been so successful. Recent passage experiments that have applied evolution of virulence frameworks based on cooperation (kin selection) have produced novel methods and promising mutants with increased killing power. Evolution of virulence theory can provide plausible explanations for the varied results of passage experiments as well as a predictive framework for improving artificial selection.

Integrating Infection Intensity into Within- and Between-Host Pathogen Dynamics: Implications for Invasion and Virulence Evolution

AbstractInfection intensity can dictate disease outcomes but is typically ignored when modeling infection dynamics of microparasites (e.g., bacteria, virus, and fungi). However, for a number of pathogens of wildlife typically categorized as microparasites, accounting for infection intensity and within-host infection processes is critical for predicting population-level responses to pathogen invasion. Here, we develop a modeling framework we refer to as reduced-dimension host-parasite integral projection models (reduced IPMs) that we use to explore how within-host infection processes affect the dynamics of pathogen invasion and virulence evolution. We find that individual-level heterogeneity in pathogen load-a nearly ubiquitous characteristic of host-parasite interactions that is rarely considered in models of microparasites-generally reduces pathogen invasion probability and dampens virulence-transmission trade-offs in host-parasite systems. The latter effect likely contributes to widely predicted virulence-transmission trade-offs being difficult to observe empirically. Moreover, our analyses show that intensity-dependent host mortality does not always induce a virulence-transmission trade-off, and systems with steeper than linear relationships between pathogen intensity and host mortality rate are significantly more likely to exhibit these trade-offs. Overall, reduced IPMs provide a useful framework to expand our theoretical and data-driven understanding of how within-host processes affect population-level disease dynamics.

Re-emphasizing mechanism in the community ecology of disease

1. Hosts and their parasites exist within complex ecological communities. However, the role that non-focal community members, species which cannot be infected by a focal pathogen, may play in altering parasite transmission is often only studied in the lens of the "diversity-disease" relationship by focusing on species richness. This approach largely ignores mechanistic species interactions and risks collapsing our understanding of the community ecology of disease down to defining the prominence of "amplification" vs. "dilution" effects. 2. However, non-focal species vary in their traits, densities, and types of interactions with focal hosts and parasites. Therefore, a community ecology approach based on the mechanisms underlying parasite transmission, host harm, and dynamic species interactions may better advance our understanding of parasite transmission in complex communities. 3. Using the concept of the parasite's basic reproductive ratio, R0, as a generalizable framework, we examine several critical mechanisms by which interactions among hosts, parasites, and non-focal species modulate transmission and provide examples from relevant literature. 4. By focusing on the mechanism by which non-focal species impact transmission, we can emphasize the similarities among classic paradigms in the community ecology of disease, gain new insights into parasite invasion and persistence, community traits correlated with disease dilution or amplification, and the feasibility of biocontrol for parasites of conservation, agricultural, or human health concern.

Modelling the Efficacy of Febrile Heating in Infected Endotherms

Fever is a response to infection characterised by an increase in body temperature. The adaptive value of this body temperature increase for endotherms is unclear, given the relatively small absolute temperature increases associated with endotherm fever, its substantial metabolic costs, and the plausibility for pathogens to adapt to higher temperatures. We consider three thermal mechanisms for fever's antimicrobial effect: (1) direct growth inhibition by elevating temperature above the pathogens optimal growth temperature; (2) further differentiating the host body from the wider environment; and (3) through increasing thermal instability of the pathogen environment. We assess these by modelling their effects pathogen on temperature dependent growth, finding thermal effects can vary from highly to minimally effective depending on pathogen species. We also find, depending on the specification of a simple physical model, intermittent heating can inhibit pathogen growth more effectively than continuous heating with an energy constraint.

Adaptive evolution of viruses infecting marine microalgae (haptophytes), from acute infections to stable coexistence

Collectively known as phytoplankton, photosynthetic microbes form the base of the marine food web, and account for up to half of the primary production on Earth. Haptophytes are key components of this phytoplankton community, playing important roles both as primary producers and as mixotrophs that graze on bacteria and protists. Viruses influence the ecology and diversity of phytoplankton in the ocean, with the majority of microalgae-virus interactions described as 'boom and bust' dynamics, which are characteristic of acute virus-host systems. Most haptophytes are, however, part of highly diverse communities and occur at low densities, decreasing their chance of being infected by viruses with high host specificity. Viruses infecting these microalgae have been isolated in the laboratory, and there are several characteristics that distinguish them from acute viruses infecting bloom-forming haptophytes. Herein we synthesise what is known of viruses infecting haptophyte hosts in the ocean, discuss the adaptive evolution of haptophyte-infecting viruses -from those that cause acute infections to those that stably coexist with their host - and identify traits of importance for successful survival in the ocean.

Effects of NaCl Concentrations on Growth Patterns, Phenotypes Associated With Virulence, and Energy Metabolism in Escherichia coli BW25113

According to the sit-and-wait hypothesis, long-term environmental survival is positively correlated with increased bacterial pathogenicity because high durability reduces the dependence of transmission on host mobility. Many indirectly transmitted bacterial pathogens, such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Burkhoderia pseudomallei, have high durability in the external environment and are highly virulent. It is possible that abiotic stresses may activate certain pathways or the expressions of certain genes, which might contribute to bacterial durability and virulence, synergistically. Therefore, exploring how bacterial phenotypes change in response to environmental stresses is important for understanding their potentials in host infections. In this study, we investigated the effects of different concentrations of salt (sodium chloride, NaCl), on survival ability, phenotypes associated with virulence, and energy metabolism of the lab strain Escherichia coli BW25113. In particular, we investigated how NaCl concentrations influenced growth patterns, biofilm formation, oxidative stress resistance, and motile ability. In terms of energy metabolism that is central to bacterial survival, glucose consumption, glycogen accumulation, and trehalose content were measured in order to understand their roles in dealing with the fluctuation of osmolarity. According to the results, trehalose is preferred than glycogen at high NaCl concentration. In order to dissect the molecular mechanisms of NaCl effects on trehalose metabolism, we further checked how the impairment of trehalose synthesis pathway (otsBA operon) via single-gene mutants influenced E. coli durability and virulence under salt stress. After that, we compared the transcriptomes of E. coli cultured at different NaCl concentrations, through which differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and differential pathways with statistical significance were identified, which provided molecular insights into E. coli responses to NaCl concentrations. In sum, this study explored the in vitro effects of NaCl concentrations on E. coli from a variety of aspects and aimed to facilitate our understanding of bacterial physiological changes under salt stress, which might help clarify the linkages between bacterial durability and virulence outside hosts under environmental stresses.

Decomposing the sources of SARS-CoV-2 fitness variation in the United States

The fitness of a pathogen is a composite phenotype determined by many different factors influencing growth rates both within and between hosts. Determining what factors shape fitness at the host population-level is especially challenging because both intrinsic factors like pathogen genetics and extrinsic factors such as host behavior influence between-host transmission potential. This challenge has been highlighted by controversy surrounding the population-level fitness effects of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome and their relative importance when compared against non-genetic factors shaping transmission dynamics. Building upon phylodynamic birth-death models, we develop a new framework to learn how hundreds of genetic and non-genetic factors have shaped the fitness of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate the fitness effects of all amino acid variants and several structural variants that have circulated in the United States between February 2020 and March 2021 from viral phylogenies. We also estimate how much fitness variation among pathogen lineages is attributable to genetic versus non-genetic factors such as spatial heterogeneity in transmission rates. Before September 2020, most fitness variation between lineages can be explained by background spatial heterogeneity in transmission rates across geographic regions. Starting in late 2020, genetic variation in fitness increased dramatically with the emergence of several new lineages including B.1.1.7, B.1.427, B.1.429 and B.1.526. Our analysis also indicates that genetic variants in less well-explored genomic regions outside of Spike may be contributing significantly to overall fitness variation in the viral population.

Symbiotic Interactions Between Mosquitoes and Mosquito Viruses

Mosquitoes not only transmit human and veterinary pathogens called arboviruses (arthropod-borne viruses) but also harbor mosquito-associated insect-specific viruses (mosquito viruses) that cannot infect vertebrates. In the past, studies investigating mosquito viruses mainly focused on highly pathogenic interactions that were easier to detect than those without visible symptoms. However, the recent advances in viral metagenomics have highlighted the abundance and diversity of viruses which do not generate mass mortality in host populations. Over the last decade, this has facilitated the rapid growth of virus discovery in mosquitoes. The circumstances around the discovery of mosquito viruses greatly affected how they have been studied so far. While earlier research mainly focused on the pathogenesis caused by DNA and some double-stranded RNA viruses during larval stages, more recently discovered single-stranded RNA mosquito viruses were heavily studied for their putative interference with arboviruses in female adults. Thus, many aspects of mosquito virus interactions with their hosts and host-microbiota are still unknown. In this context, considering mosquito viruses as endosymbionts can help to identify novel research areas, in particular in relation to their long-term interactions with their hosts (e.g. relationships during all life stages, the stability of the associations at evolutionary scales, transmission routes and virulence evolution) and the possible context-dependent range of interactions (i.e. beneficial to antagonistic). Here, we review the symbiotic interactions of mosquito viruses considering different aspects of their ecology, such as transmission, host specificity, host immune system and interactions with other symbionts within the host cellular arena. Finally, we highlight related research gaps in mosquito virus research.

The developmental trajectories of Toxoplasma stem from an elaborate epigenetic rewiring

Toxoplasma gondii is considered to be one of the most successful parasitic pathogens. It owes this success to its flexibility in responding to signals emanating from the different environments it encounters during its multihost life cycle. The adaptability of this unicellular organism relies on highly coordinated and evolutionarily optimized developmental abilities that allow it to adopt the forms best suited to the requirements of each environment. Here we discuss recent outstanding studies that have uncovered how master regulators epigenetically regulate the cryptic process of sexual development and the transition to chronicity. We also highlight the molecular and technical advances that allow the field to embark on a new journey of epigenetic reprogramming of T. gondii development.

Annual Recurrences of Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia Epizootics in Age 0 Pacific Herring Clupea pallasii Valenciennes, 1847

Simple Summary

Pathogen surveillances in wild marine fish populations need to be carefully designed to address specific research or management objectives. Surveillance strategies should be designed around host life history characteristics, host and pathogen geographic ranges, laboratory diagnostic tools that are specific to the epidemiology of each pathogen, and the goal of the surveillance program. We demonstrate how the potential impacts of viral hemorrhagic septicemia can be under-appreciated in populations of Pacific herring by comparing results from opportunistically collected samples with those from more targeted epidemiological investigations that were focused on times and locations with high disease probability.

Abstract

Throughout a 20 year biosurveillance period, viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus was isolated in low titers from only 6/7355 opportunistically sampled adult Pacific herring, reflecting the typical endemic phase of the disease when the virus persists covertly. However, more focused surveillance efforts identified the presence of disease hot spots occurring among juvenile life history stages from certain nearshore habitats. These outbreaks sometimes recurred annually in the same temporal and spatial patterns and were characterized by infection prevalence as high as 96%. Longitudinal sampling indicated that some epizootics were relatively transient, represented by positive samples on a single sampling date, and others were more protracted, with positive samples occurring throughout the first 10 weeks of the juvenile life history phase. These results indicate that viral hemorrhagic septicemia (VHS) epizootics in free-ranging Pacific herring C. pallasii are more common than previously appreciated; however, they are easily overlooked if biosurveillance efforts are not designed around times and locations with high disease potential.

The three Ts of virulence evolution during zoonotic emergence

There is increasing interest in the role that evolution may play in current and future pandemics, but there is often also considerable confusion about the actual evolutionary predictions. This may be, in part, due to a historical separation of evolutionary and medical fields, but there is a large, somewhat nuanced body of evidence-supported theory on the evolution of infectious disease. In this review, we synthesize this evolutionary theory in order to provide a framework for clearer understanding of the key principles. Specifically, we discuss the selection acting on zoonotic pathogens' transmission rates and virulence at spillover and during emergence. We explain how the direction and strength of selection during epidemics of emerging zoonotic disease can be understood by a three Ts framework: trade-offs, transmission, and time scales. Virulence and transmission rate may trade-off, but transmission rate is likely to be favoured by selection early in emergence, particularly if maladapted zoonotic pathogens have 'no-cost' transmission rate improving mutations available to them. Additionally, the optimal virulence and transmission rates can shift with the time scale of the epidemic. Predicting pathogen evolution, therefore, depends on understanding both the trade-offs of transmission-improving mutations and the time scales of selection.

Host population structure for tolerance determines the evolution of plant-virus interactions

Heterogeneity for plant defences determines both the capacity of host populations to buffer the effect of infection and the pathogen´s fitness. However, little information is known on how host population structure for tolerance, a major plant defence, impacts the evolution of plant-pathogen interactions. By performing 10 serial passages of Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV) in Arabidopsis thaliana populations with varying proportion of tolerant genotypes simulating different structures for this trait, we analysed how host heterogeneity for this defence shapes the evolution of both virus multiplication, the effect of infection on plant fecundity and mortality, and plant tolerance and resistance. Results indicated that a higher proportion of tolerant genotypes in the host population promotes virus multiplication and reduces the effect of infection on plant mortality, but not on plant fecundity. These changes resulted in more effective plant tolerance to virus infection. Conversely, a lower proportion of tolerant genotypes reduced virus multiplication, boosting plant resistance. Our work for the first time provides evidence of the main role of host population structure for tolerance on pathogen evolution and on the subsequent feedback loops on plant defences.

Low Virulence of the Fungi Escovopsis and Escovopsioides to a Leaf-Cutting Ant-Fungus Symbiosis

Eusocial insects interact with a diversity of parasites that can threaten their survival and reproduction. The amount of harm these parasites cause to their hosts (i.e., their virulence) can be influenced by numerous factors, such as the ecological context in which the parasite and its host are inserted. Leaf-cutting ants (genera Atta, Acromyrmex and Amoimyrmex, Attini: Formicidae) are an example of a eusocial insect whose colonies are constantly threatened by parasites. The fungi Escovopsis and Escovopsioides (Ascomycota: Hypocreales) are considered a highly virulent parasite and an antagonist, respectively, to the leaf-cutting ants' fungal cultivar, Leucoagaricus gongylophorus (Basidiomycota: Agaricales). Since Escovopsis and Escovopsioides are common inhabitants of healthy colonies that can live for years, we expect them to have low levels of virulence. However, this virulence could vary depending on ecological context. We therefore tested two hypotheses: (i) Escovopsis and Escovopsioides are of low virulence to colonies; (ii) virulence increases as colony complexity decreases. For this, we used three levels of complexity: queenright colonies (fungus garden with queen and workers), queenless colonies (fungus garden and workers, without queen) and fungus gardens (without any ants). Each was inoculated with extremely high concentrations of conidia of Escovopsis moelleri, Escovopsioides nivea, the mycoparasitic fungus Trichoderma longibrachiatum or a blank control. We found that these fungi were of low virulence to queenright colonies. The survival of queenless colonies was decreased by E. moelleri and fungus gardens were suppressed by all treatments. Moreover, E. nivea and T. longibrachiatum seemed to be less aggressive than E. moelleri, observed both in vivo and in vitro. The results highlight the importance of each element (queen, workers and fungus garden) in the leaf-cutting ant-fungus symbiosis. Most importantly, we showed that Escovopsis may not be virulent to healthy colonies, despite commonly being described as such, with the reported virulence of Escovopsis being due to poor colony conditions in the field or in laboratory experiments.

Monthly dynamics of the cold-adapted one-host biological north form of Hyalomma scupense under the influence of the warm summer subtype of the Mediterranean climate in Turkey

The one-host biological north form / ecotype of Hyalomma scupense Schulze, 1919 (Acari, Ixodidae) is reported for the first time in Turkey herein. Following the first detection of the tick, a longitudinal field study was carried out to fill gaps in the data concerning its biological features. This study also aimed to determine how the monthly activation dynamics of this relatively cold climate-adapted species is characterized under the influence of the warm summer subtype of the Mediterranean climate. During this study, which was carried out on a monthly basis in 2014, H. scupense was found on cattle from 5 out of 18 villages screened in Thrace (the European part of Turkey). The field study revealed that i) this north ecotype of H. scupense exhibits winter one-host behavior beginning in October (with larval stages) and ending in April (with engorged adults); ii) engorged females detach from the cattle, drop on the floors of barns during night and accumulate on piled bedding contaminated with slurry manure; iii) in the late spring, engorged females lay eggs, and larvae hatch in the same area; and iv) larvae become active in autumn as the weather grows cooler. The results indicated that although one-host H. scupense is known to be distinctly adapted to cold conditions, it can also be effectively established in relatively temperate regions and complete its life cycle with some modifications in the timing of its monthly activation dynamics.

Epigenetic memories and the evolution of infectious diseases

Genes with identical DNA sequence may show differential expression because of epigenetic marks. Where epigenetic marks respond to past conditions, they represent a form of "memory". Despite their medical relevance, the impact of memories on the evolution of infectious diseases has rarely been considered. Here we explore the evolution of virulence in pathogens that carry memories of the sex of their previous host. We show that this form of memory provides information about the sex of present and future hosts when the sexes differ in their pathogen's transmission pattern. Memories of past hosts enable the evolution of greater virulence in infections originating from one sex and infections transmitted across sexes. Thus, our results account for patterns of virulence that have, to date, defied medical explanation. In particular, it has been observed that girls infected by boys (or boys infected by girls) are more likely to die from measles, chickenpox and polio than girls infected by girls (or boys infected by boys). We also evaluate epigenetic therapies that tamper with the memories of infecting pathogens. More broadly, our findings imply that pathogens can be selected to carry memories of past environments other than sex. This identifies new directions in personalised medicine.

SARS-CoV-2 virulence evolution: Avirulence theory, immunity and trade-offs

The COVID‐19 pandemic has led to a resurgence of the debate on whether host–parasite interactions should evolve towards avirulence. In this review, we first show that SARS‐CoV‐2 virulence is evolving, before explaining why some expect the mortality caused by the epidemic to converge towards that of human seasonal alphacoronaviruses. Leaning on existing theory, we then include viral evolution into the picture and discuss hypotheses explaining why the virulence has increased since the beginning of the pandemic. Finally, we mention some potential scenarios for the future.

Host genotype and genetic diversity shape the evolution of a novel bacterial infection

Pathogens continue to emerge from increased contact with novel host species. Whilst these hosts can represent distinct environments for pathogens, the impacts of host genetic background on how a pathogen evolves post-emergence are unclear. In a novel interaction, we experimentally evolved a pathogen (Staphylococcus aureus) in populations of wild nematodes (Caenorhabditis elegans) to test whether host genotype and genetic diversity affect pathogen evolution. After ten rounds of selection, we found that pathogen virulence evolved to vary across host genotypes, with differences in host metal ion acquisition detected as a possible driver of increased host exploitation. Diverse host populations selected for the highest levels of pathogen virulence, but infectivity was constrained, unlike in host monocultures. We hypothesise that population heterogeneity might pool together individuals that contribute disproportionately to the spread of infection or to enhanced virulence. The genomes of evolved populations were sequenced, and it was revealed that pathogens selected in distantly-related host genotypes diverged more than those in closely-related host genotypes. S. aureus nevertheless maintained a broad host range. Our study provides unique empirical insight into the evolutionary dynamics that could occur in other novel infections of wildlife and humans.

Breeding for Virus Resistance and Its Effects on Deformed Wing Virus Infection Patterns in Honey Bee Queens

Viruses, and in particular the deformed wing virus (DWV), are considered as one of the main antagonists of honey bee health. The 'suppressed in ovo virus infection' trait (SOV) described for the first time that control of a virus infection can be achieved from genetically inherited traits and that the virus state of the eggs is indicative for this. This research aims to explore the effect of the SOV trait on DWV infections in queens descending from both SOV-positive (QDS+) and SOV-negative (QDS-) queens. Twenty QDS+ and QDS- were reared from each time four queens in the same starter-finisher colony. From each queen the head, thorax, ovaries, spermatheca, guts and eviscerated abdomen were dissected and screened for the presence of the DWV-A and DWV-B genotype using qRT-PCR. Queens descending from SOV-positive queens showed significant lower infection loads for DWV-A and DWV-B as well as a lower number of infected tissues for DWV-A. Surprisingly, differences were less expressed in the reproductive tissues, the ovaries and spermatheca. These results confirm that selection on the SOV trait is associated with increased virus resistance across viral genotypes and that this selection drives DWV towards an increased tissue specificity for the reproductive tissues. Further research is needed to explore the mechanisms underlying the interaction between the antiviral response and DWV.

Evolution of human respiratory virus epidemics

Background: Pathogens are often assumed to evolve towards reduced virulence, but counterexamples abound. Faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is crucial to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) and the overall disease burden. Considerable effort has been invested towards developing a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although many approaches accurately recapitulate complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between CFR and infection rate. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens. Methods: A compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity is constructed and evaluated at both short timescales and at equilibrium. Results: We reveal kinetic constraints whereby variation of multiple parameters in concert leads to decreased CFR and increased pathogen fitness, whereas independent variation of the parameters decreases pathogen fitness. Smallpox, SARS-CoV-2, and influenza are analyzed as diverse representatives of human respiratory viruses. We show that highly virulent viruses, such as smallpox, are often constrained by the host behavior, whereas moderately virulent viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, appear to be typically constrained by the relationship between the duration of immunity and CFR. Conclusions: Evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in CFR should not be assumed. These results agree with previous work demonstrating an increase in virulence for smallpox and further predict that SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. Herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and viruses with similar life history traits might be unachievable without vaccination. However, partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect on the epidemic dynamics not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by changing the evolutionary trajectory of moderate CFR viruses towards reduced CFR.

Evolution of human respiratory virus epidemics

Background: It is often assumed that pathogens evolve towards reduced virulence, but counterexamples abound. Faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is highly desirable to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) and overall disease burden into the future. Considerable effort has been invested towards the development of a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although many approaches accurately recapitulate complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between CFR and infection rate. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens. Methods: A compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity is constructed and evaluated at both short timescales and at equilibrium (when it exists). Results: We reveal kinetic constraints where the variation of multiple parameters in concert leads to decreased CFR and increased pathogen fitness, whereas independent variation of the parameters decreases pathogen fitness. Smallpox, SARS-CoV-2, and influenza are analyzed as diverse representatives of human respiratory viruses. We show that highly virulent viruses, such as smallpox, are likely often constrained by host behavior, whereas moderately virulent viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, appear to be typically constrained by the relationship between the duration of immunity and CFR. Conclusions: Evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in CFR should not be assumed. Our findings imply that, without continued public health intervention, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. The existence of a parameter regime admitting endemic equilibrium suggests that herd immunity is unachievable. However, we demonstrate that even partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by potentially changing the evolutionary trajectory of the virus towards reduced CFR.

The roles of environmental variation and parasite survival in virulence-transmission relationships

Disease outbreaks are a consequence of interactions among the three components of a host-parasite system: the infectious agent, the host and the environment. While virulence and transmission are widely investigated, most studies of parasite life-history trade-offs are conducted with theoretical models or tractable experimental systems where transmission is standardized and the environment controlled. Yet, biotic and abiotic environmental factors can strongly affect disease dynamics, and ultimately, host-parasite coevolution. Here, we review research on how environmental context alters virulence-transmission relationships, focusing on the off-host portion of the parasite life cycle, and how variation in parasite survival affects the evolution of virulence and transmission. We review three inter-related 'approaches' that have dominated the study of the evolution of virulence and transmission for different host-parasite systems: (i) evolutionary trade-off theory, (ii) parasite local adaptation and (iii) parasite phylodynamics. These approaches consider the role of the environment in virulence and transmission evolution from different angles, which entail different advantages and potential biases. We suggest improvements to how to investigate virulence-transmission relationships, through conceptual and methodological developments and taking environmental context into consideration. By combining developments in life-history evolution, phylogenetics, adaptive dynamics and comparative genomics, we can improve our understanding of virulence-transmission relationships across a diversity of host-parasite systems that have eluded experimental study of parasite life history.

Screening potential insect vectors in a museum biorepository reveals undiscovered diversity of plant pathogens in natural areas

Phytoplasmas (Mollicutes, Acholeplasmataceae), vector-borne obligate bacterial plant parasites, infect nearly 1,000 plant species and unknown numbers of insects, mainly leafhoppers (Hemiptera, Deltocephalinae), which play a key role in transmission and epidemiology. Although the plant-phytoplasma-insect association has been evolving for >300 million years, nearly all known phytoplasmas have been discovered as a result of the damage inflicted by phytoplasma diseases on crops. Few efforts have been made to study phytoplasmas occurring in noneconomically important plants in natural habitats. In this study, a subsample of leafhopper specimens preserved in a large museum biorepository was analyzed to unveil potential new associations. PCR screening for phytoplasmas performed on 227 phloem-feeding leafhoppers collected worldwide from natural habitats revealed the presence of 6 different previously unknown phytoplasma strains. This indicates that museum collections of herbivorous insects represent a rich and largely untapped resource for discovery of new plant pathogens, that natural areas worldwide harbor a diverse but largely undiscovered diversity of phytoplasmas and potential insect vectors, and that independent epidemiological cycles occur in such habitats, posing a potential threat of disease spillover into agricultural systems. Larger-scale future investigations will contribute to a better understanding of phytoplasma genetic diversity, insect host range, and insect-borne phytoplasma transmission and provide an early warning for the emergence of new phytoplasma diseases across global agroecosystems.

Evolution of an asymptomatic first stage of infection in a heterogeneous population

Pathogens evolve different life-history strategies, which depend in part on differences in their host populations. A central feature of hosts is their population structure (e.g. spatial). Additionally, hosts themselves can exhibit different degrees of symptoms when newly infected; this latency is a key life-history property of pathogens. With an evolutionary-epidemiological model, we examine the role of population structure on the evolutionary dynamics of latency. We focus on specific power-law-like formulations for transmission and progression from the first infectious stage as a function of latency, assuming that the across-group to within-group transmission ratio increases if hosts are less symptomatic. We find that simple population heterogeneity can lead to local evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) at zero and infinite latency in situations where a unique ESS exists in the corresponding homogeneous case. Furthermore, there can exist more than one interior evolutionarily singular strategy. We find that this diversity of outcomes is due to the (possibly slight) advantage of across-group transmission for pathogens that produce fewer symptoms in a first infectious stage. Thus, our work reveals that allowing individuals without symptoms to travel can have important unintended evolutionary effects and is thus fundamentally problematic in view of the evolutionary dynamics of latency.

How Do Pathogens Evolve Novel Virulence Activities?

This article is part of the Top 10 Unanswered Questions in MPMI invited review series.We consider the state of knowledge on pathogen evolution of novel virulence activities, broadly defined as anything that increases pathogen fitness with the consequence of causing disease in either the qualitative or quantitative senses, including adaptation of pathogens to host immunity and physiology, host species, genotypes, or tissues, or the environment. The evolution of novel virulence activities as an adaptive trait is based on the selection exerted by hosts on variants that have been generated de novo or arrived from elsewhere. In addition, the biotic and abiotic environment a pathogen experiences beyond the host may influence pathogen virulence activities. We consider host-pathogen evolution, host range expansion, and external factors that can mediate pathogen evolution. We then discuss the mechanisms by which pathogens generate and recombine the genetic variation that leads to novel virulence activities, including DNA point mutation, transposable element activity, gene duplication and neofunctionalization, and genetic exchange. In summary, if there is an (epi)genetic mechanism that can create variation in the genome, it will be used by pathogens to evolve virulence factors. Our knowledge of virulence evolution has been biased by pathogen evolution in response to major gene resistance, leaving other virulence activities underexplored. Understanding the key driving forces that give rise to novel virulence activities and the integration of evolutionary concepts and methods with mechanistic research on plant-microbe interactions can help inform crop protection.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

The dynamics of evolutionary rescue from a novel pathogen threat in a host metapopulation

When a novel disease strikes a naïve host population, there is evidence that the most immediate response can involve host evolution while the pathogen remains relatively unchanged. When hosts also live in metapopulations, there may be critical differences in the dynamics that emerge from the synergy among evolutionary, ecological, and epidemiological factors. Here we used a Susceptible-Infected-Recovery model to explore how spatial and temporal ecological factors may drive the epidemiological and rapid-evolutionary dynamics of host metapopulations. For simplicity, we assumed two host genotypes: wild type, which has a positive intrinsic growth rate in the absence of disease, and robust type, which is less likely to catch the infection given exposure but has a lower intrinsic growth rate in the absence of infection. We found that the robust-type host would be strongly selected for in the presence of disease when transmission differences between the two types is large. The growth rate of the wild type had dual but opposite effects on host composition: a smaller increase in wild-type growth increased wild-type competition and lead to periodical disease outbreaks over the first generations after pathogen introduction, while larger growth increased disease by providing more susceptibles, which increased robust host density but decreased periodical outbreaks. Increased migration had a similar impact as the increased differential susceptibility, both of which led to an increase in robust hosts and a decrease in periodical outbreaks. Our study provided a comprehensive understanding of the combined effects among migration, disease epidemiology, and host demography on host evolution with an unchanging pathogen. The findings have important implications for wildlife conservation and zoonotic disease control.

Reduction in Virulence over Time in Ostreid herpesvirus 1 (OsHV-1) Microvariants between 2011 and 2015 in Australia

Microvariant genotypes of Ostreid herpesvirus 1 (OsHV-1) are associated with mass mortality events of Pacific oysters in many countries. The OsHV-1 microvariant (µVar) emerged in France 2008 and caused significant economic losses as it became endemic and displaced the previously dominant OsHV-1 reference genotype. Recently, considerable genotypic variation has been described for OsHV-1 microvariants, however, less is known about variation in viral phenotype. This study used an in vivo laboratory infection model to assess differences in total cumulative mortality, peak viral load, transmissibility, and dose-response for three OsHV-1 isolates obtained between 2011 and 2015 from endemic waterways in Australia. This followed field observations of apparent reductions in the severity of mass mortalities over this time. Significantly higher hazard of death and cumulative mortality were observed for an isolate obtained in 2011 compared to isolates from 2014–2015. In keeping with other studies, the hazard of death was higher in oysters challenged by injection compared to challenge by cohabitation and the mortality was higher when the initial dose was 1 × 10⁴ OsHV-1 DNA copies per oyster injection compared to 1 × 10² DNA copies. There was no difference in the quantity of OsHV-1 DNA at time of death that could be related to isolate or dose, suggesting similar pathogenetic processes in the individual oysters that succumbed to end-stage disease. While the isolates examined in this study were biased towards pathogenic types of OsHV-1, as they were collected during disease outbreaks, the variation in virulence that was observed, when combined with prior data on subclinical infections, suggests that surveillance for low virulence genotypes of OsHV-1 would be rewarding. This may lead to new approaches to disease management which utilize controlled exposure to attenuated strains of OsHV-1.

The Effect of Artificial Media and Temperature on the Growth and Development of the Honey Bee Brood Pathogen Ascosphaera apis

Ascosphaera apis is a causative agent of chalkbrood, which is one of the most widespread honey bee diseases. In our experiments, the influence of several artificial media and cultivation under different temperatures was evaluated. Concretely, the radial growth of separated mating types was measured, reproductive structures in a Neubauer hemocytometer chamber were counted simultaneously, and the morphometry of spore cysts and spore balls was assessed. The complex set of experiments determined suitable cultivation conditions. A specific pattern between reproductive structure size and temperature was found. The optimal temperature for both mating types was 30 °C. SDA and YGPSA media are suitable for fast mycelial growth. Moreover, the effect of bee brood on fungus growth and development in vitro was investigated by modification of culture medium. The newly modified medium PDA-BB4 was most effective for the production of the reproductive structures. The result suggests that honey bee brood provides necessary nutrients for proper fungus development during in vitro cultivation. As there is no registered therapeutic agent against chalkbrood in most countries, including the European Union, the assessment of A. apis growth and development in different conditions could help to understand fungus pathogenesis and thus control chalkbrood disease.

Virus shedding kinetics and unconventional virulence tradeoffs

Tradeoff theory, which postulates that virulence provides both transmission costs and benefits for pathogens, has become widely adopted by the scientific community. Although theoretical literature exploring virulence-tradeoffs is vast, empirical studies validating various assumptions still remain sparse. In particular, truncation of transmission duration as a cost of virulence has been difficult to quantify with robust controlled in vivo studies. We sought to fill this knowledge gap by investigating how transmission rate and duration were associated with virulence for infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Using host mortality to quantify virulence and viral shedding to quantify transmission, we found that IHNV did not conform to classical tradeoff theory. More virulent genotypes of the virus were found to have longer transmission durations due to lower recovery rates of infected hosts, but the relationship was not saturating as assumed by tradeoff theory. Furthermore, the impact of host mortality on limiting transmission duration was minimal and greatly outweighed by recovery. Transmission rate differences between high and low virulence genotypes were also small and inconsistent. Ultimately, more virulent genotypes were found to have the overall fitness advantage, and there was no apparent constraint on the evolution of increased virulence for IHNV. However, using a mathematical model parameterized with experimental data, it was found that host culling resurrected the virulence tradeoff and provided low virulence genotypes with the advantage. Human-induced or natural culling, as well as host population fragmentation, may be some of the mechanisms by which virulence diversity is maintained in nature. This work highlights the importance of considering non-classical virulence tradeoffs.

Parasite evolution in an age-structured population

Although mortality increases with age in most organisms, senescence is missing from models of parasite evolution. Since virulence evolves according to the host's mortality, and since virulence influences the intensity of transmission, which determines the average age at infection and thus the mortality rate of a senescing host, we expected that epi-evolutionary feedbacks would underlie the evolution of virulence in a population of senescing hosts. We tested this idea by extending an age-structured model of epidemiological dynamics with the parasite's evolution. A straightforward prediction of our model is that stronger senescence forces the evolution of higher virulence. However, the model also reveals that the evolved virulence depends on the average age at infection, giving an evolutionary feedback with the epidemiological situation, a prediction not found when assuming a constant mortality rate with age. Additionally, and in contrast to most models of parasite evolution, we found that the virulence at the evolutionary equilibrium is influenced by whether the force of infection depends on the density or on the frequency of infected hosts, due to changes in the average age at infection. Our findings suggest that ignoring age-specific effects, and in particular senescence, can give misleading predictions about parasite evolution.

The central role of host reproduction in determining the evolution of virulence in spatially structured populations

A substantial body of work has shown that local transmission selects for less acute, 'prudent' parasites that have lower virulence and transmission rates. This is because parasite strains with higher transmission rates 'self-shade' due to a combination of genetic correlations (self: clustered related parasite strains compete for susceptible individuals) and ecological correlations (shade: infected individuals clustering and blocking transmission). However, the interaction of ecological and genetic correlations alongside higher order ecological effects such as patch extinctions means that spatial evolutionary effects can be nuanced; theory has predicted that a relatively small proportion of local infection can select for highest virulence, such that there is a humped relationship between the degree of local infection and the harm that parasites are selected to cause. Here, we examine the separate roles of the interaction scales of reproduction and infection in the context of different degrees of pathogenic castration in determining virulence evolution outcomes. Our key result is that, as long as there is significant reproduction from infected individuals, local infection always selects for lower virulence, and that the prediction that a small proportion of local infection can select for higher virulence only occurs for highly castrating pathogens. The results emphasize the importance of demography for evolutionary outcomes in spatially structured populations, but also show that the core prediction that parasites are prudent in space is reasonable for the vast majority of host-parasite interactions and mixing patterns in nature.

Pathogenicity and virulence of hepatitis A virus

Hepatitis A is an acute infection of the liver, which is mostly asymptomatic in children and increases the severity with age. Although in most patients the infection resolves completely, in a few of them it may follow a prolonged or relapsed course or even a fulminant form. The reason for these different outcomes is unknown, but it is generally accepted that host factors such as the immunological status, age and the occurrence of underlaying hepatic diseases are the main determinants of the severity. However, it cannot be ruled out that some virus traits may also contribute to the severe clinical outcomes. In this review, we will analyze which genetic determinants of the virus may determine virulence, in the context of a paradigmatic virus in terms of its genomic, molecular, replicative, and evolutionary features.

Mitigating Future Respiratory Virus Pandemics: New Threats and Approaches to Consider

Despite many recent efforts to predict and control emerging infectious disease threats to humans, we failed to anticipate the zoonotic viruses which led to pandemics in 2009 and 2020. The morbidity, mortality, and economic costs of these pandemics have been staggering. We desperately need a more targeted, cost-efficient, and sustainable strategy to detect and mitigate future zoonotic respiratory virus threats. Evidence suggests that the transition from an animal virus to a human pathogen is incremental and requires a considerable number of spillover events and considerable time before a pandemic variant emerges. This evolutionary view argues for the refocusing of public health resources on novel respiratory virus surveillance at human-animal interfaces in geographical hotspots for emerging infectious diseases. Where human-animal interface surveillance is not possible, a secondary high-yield, cost-efficient strategy is to conduct novel respiratory virus surveillance among pneumonia patients in these same hotspots. When novel pathogens are discovered, they must be quickly assessed for their human risk and, if indicated, mitigation strategies initiated. In this review, we discuss the most common respiratory virus threats, current efforts at early emerging pathogen detection, and propose and defend new molecular pathogen discovery strategies with the goal of preempting future pandemics.

Infectious diseases and social distancing in nature

Spread of contagious pathogens critically depends on the number and types of contacts between infectious and susceptible hosts. Changes in social behavior by susceptible, exposed, or sick individuals thus have far-reaching downstream consequences for infectious disease spread. Although "social distancing" is now an all too familiar strategy for managing COVID-19, nonhuman animals also exhibit pathogen-induced changes in social interactions. Here, we synthesize the effects of infectious pathogens on social interactions in animals (including humans), review what is known about underlying mechanisms, and consider implications for evolution and epidemiology.

Experimental evolution of cowpea mild mottle virus reveals recombination-driven reduction in virulence accompanied by increases in diversity and viral fitness

Major themes in pathogen evolution are emergence, evolution of virulence, host adaptation and the processes that underlie them. RNA viruses are of particular interest due to their rapid evolution. The in vivo molecular evolution of an RNA plant virus was demonstrated here using a necrotic isolate of cowpea mild mottle virus (CPMMV) and a susceptible soybean genotype submitted to serial inoculations. We show that the virus lost the capacity to cause necrosis after six passages through the host plant. When a severe bottleneck was imposed, virulence reduction occurred in the second passage. The change to milder symptoms had fitness benefits for the virus (higher RNA accumulation) and for its vector, the whitefly Bemisia tabaci. Genetic polymorphisms were highest in ORF1 (viral replicase) and were independent of the symptom pattern. Recombination was a major contributor to this diversity - even with the strong genetic bottleneck, recombination events and hot spots were detected within ORF1. Virulence reduction was associated with different sites in ORF1 associated to recombination events in both experiments. Overall, the results demonstrate that the reduction in virulence was a consequence of the emergence of new variants, driven by recombination. Besides providing details of the evolutionary mechanisms behind a reduction in virulence and its effect under viral and vector fitness, we propose that this recombination-driven switch in virulence allows the pathogen to rapidly adapt to a new host and, potentially, switch back.

Epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of periodicity in treatment coverage

Host heterogeneity is a key driver of host-pathogen dynamics. In particular, the use of treatments against infectious diseases creates variation in quality among hosts, which can have both epidemiological and evolutionary consequences. We present a general theoretical model to highlight the consequences of different imperfect treatments on pathogen prevalence and evolution. These treatments differ in their action on host and pathogen traits. In contrast with previous studies, we assume that treatment coverage can vary in time, as in seasonal or pulsed treatment strategies. We show that periodic treatment strategies can limit both disease spread and virulence evolution, depending on the type of treatment. We also introduce a new method to analytically calculate the selection gradient in periodic environments, which allows our predictions to be interpreted using the concept of reproductive value, and can be applied more generally to analyse eco-evolutionary dynamics in class-structured populations and fluctuating environments.

Viral Interactions and Pathogenesis during Multiple Viral Infections in Agaricus bisporus

Viral interactions during multiple viral infections were examined in Agaricus bisporus cultures harboring 9 viruses (comprising 18 distinct viral RNAs) by statistically analyzing their relative abundance in fruitbodies. Four clusters of viral RNA were identified that suggested synergism and coreplication. Pairwise correlations revealed negative and positive correlations between clusters, indicating further synergisms and an antagonism involving a group containing a putative hypovirus and four nonhost ORFan RNAs (RNAs with no similarity to known sequences) possibly acting as defective interfering RNAs. The disease phenotype was observed in 10 to 15% of the fruitbodies apparently randomly located among asymptomatic fruitbodies. The degree of symptom expression consistently correlated with the levels of the multipartite virus AbV16. Diseased fruitbodies contained very high levels of AbV16 and AbV6 RNA2; these levels were orders of magnitude higher than those in asymptomatic tissues and were shown statistically to be discretely higher populations of abundance, indicating an exponential shift in the replicative capacity of the virus. High levels of AbV16 replication were specific to the fruitbody and not found in the underlying mycelium. There appeared to be a stochastic element occurring in these viral interactions, as observed in the distribution of diseased symptoms across a culture, differences in variance between experiments, and a number of additional viruses undergoing the step-jump in levels between experiments. Possible mechanisms for these multiple and simultaneous viral interactions in single culture are discussed in relation to known virus-host regulatory mechanisms for viral replication and whether additional factors could be considered to account for the 1,000-fold increase in AbV16 and AbV6 RNA2 levels.

Genetic diversity and genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Morocco

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), declared as a pandemic due to its rapid spread worldwide. In this study, we investigate the genetic diversity and genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2, using 22 virus genome sequences reported by three different laboratories in Morocco till June 7,2020, as well as 40,366 virus genomes from all around the world. The SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Moroccan patients revealed 62 mutations, of which 30 were mis-sense mutations. The mutations Spike_D614G and NSP12_P323L were present in all the 22 analyzed sequences, followed by N_G204R and N_R203K, which occurred in 9 among the 22 sequences. The mutations NSP10_R134S, NSP15_D335N, NSP16_I169L, NSP3_L431H, NSP3_P1292L and Spike_V6F occurred once in Moroccan sequences, with no record in other sequences worldwide. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Moroccan SARS-CoV-2 genomes included 9 viruses belonging to Clade 20A, 9 to Clade 20B and 2 to Clade 20C, suggesting that the epidemic spread in Morocco did not display a predominant SARS-CoV-2 route. Therefore, multiple and unrelated introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Morocco through different routes have occurred, giving rise to the diversity of virus genomes in the country. Further, in all probability, the SARS-CoV-2 circulated in a cryptic way in Morocco, starting from January 15, 2020 before the first case was officially discovered on March 2, 2020.

Putative determinants of virulence in Melissococcus plutonius, the bacterial agent causing European foulbrood in honey bees

Melissococcus plutonius

is a bacterial pathogen that causes epidemic outbreaks of European foulbrood (EFB) in honey bee populations. The pathogenicity of a bacterium depends on its virulence, and understanding the mechanisms influencing virulence may allow for improved disease control and containment. Using a standardized in vitro assay, we demonstrate that virulence varies greatly among sixteen M. plutonius isolates from five European countries. Additionally, we explore the causes of this variation. In this study, virulence was independent of the multilocus sequence type of the tested pathogen, and was not affected by experimental co-infection with Paenibacillus alvei, a bacterium often associated with EFB outbreaks. Virulence in vitro was correlated with the growth dynamics of M. plutonius isolates in artificial medium, and with the presence of a plasmid carrying a gene coding for the putative toxin melissotoxin A. Our results suggest that some M. plutonius strains showed an increased virulence due to the acquisition of a toxin-carrying mobile genetic element. We discuss whether strains with increased virulence play a role in recent EFB outbreaks.

How virulent are emerging maize-infecting mastreviruses?

Maize streak disease (MSD) is one of the most significant biotic constraints on the production of Africa's most important cereal crop. Until recently, the only virus known to cause severe MSD was the A-strain of maize streak virus (MSV/A), a member of the genus Mastrevirus, family Geminiviridae. However, over the past decade, two other mastreviruses, MSV/C and maize streak Réunion virus (MSRV), have been repeatedly found in the absence of MSV/A in maize plants displaying severe MSD symptoms. Here, we report on infectious clones of MSV/C and MSRV and test their ability to cause severe MSD symptoms. Although cloned MSV/C and MSRV genomes could cause systemic symptomatic infections in MSD-sensitive maize genotypes, these infections yielded substantially milder symptoms than those observed in the field. The MSV/C and MSRV isolates that we have examined are therefore unlikely to cause severe MSD on their own. Furthermore, mixed infections of MSRV and MSV/C with other mild MSV strains also consistently yielded mild MSD symptoms. It is noteworthy that MSRV produces distinctive striate symptoms in maize that are similar in pattern, albeit not in severity, to those seen in the field, showing that this virus may contribute to the severe MSD symptoms seen in the field. Therefore, despite not fulfilling Koch's postulates for MSV/C and MSRV as causal agents of severe MSD, we cannot exclude the possibility that these viruses could be contributing to currently emerging maize diseases.

Chest computed tomography scan findings of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients: a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Numerous cases of pneumonia caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were reported in Wuhan, China. Chest computed tomography (CT) scan is highly important in the diagnosis and follow-up of lung disease treatment. The present meta-analysis was performed to evaluate chest CT scan findings in COVID-19 patients.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

All research steps were taken according to the Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies In Epidemiology (MOOSE) protocol and the final report was based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We registered this review at the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO, CRD42019127858).

RESULTS

Forty eligible studies including 4598 patients with COVID-19 were used for meta-analysis. The rate of positive chest CT scan in patients with COVID-19 was 94.5% (95% CI: 91.7-96.3). Bilateral lung involvement, pure ground-glass opacity (GGO), mixed (GGO pulse consolidation or reticular), consolidation, reticular, and presence of nodule findings in chest CT scan of COVID-19 pneumonia patients were respectively estimated to be 79.1% (95% CI: 70.8-85.5), 64.9% (95% CI: 54.1-74.4), 49.2% (95% CI: 35.7-62.8), 30.3% (95% CI: 19.6-43.6), 17.0% (95% CI: 3.9-50.9) and 16.6% (95% CI: 13.6-20.2). The distribution of lung lesions in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was peripheral (70.0% [95% CI: 57.8-79.9]), central (3.9% [95% CI: 1.4-10.6]), and peripheral and central (31.1% [95% CI: 19.5-45.8]). The pulmonary lobes most commonly involved were the right lower lobe (86.5% [95% CI:57.7-96.8]) and left lower lobe (81.0% [95% CI: 50.5-94.7]).

CONCLUSIONS

The most important outcomes in chest CT scan of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were bilateral lung involvement, GGO or mixed (GGO pulse consolidation or reticular) patterns, thickened interlobular septa, vascular enlargement, air bronchogram sign, peripheral distribution, and left and right lower lobes involvement. Our study showed that chest CT scan has high sensitivity in the diagnosis of COVID-19, and may therefore serve as a standard method for diagnosis of COVID-19.

Superinfection and the evolution of an initial asymptomatic stage

Pathogens have evolved a variety of life-history strategies. An important strategy consists of successful transmission by an infected host before the appearance of symptoms, that is, while the host is still partially or fully asymptomatic. During this initial stage of infection, it is possible for another pathogen to superinfect an already infected host and replace the previously infecting pathogen. Here, we study the effect of superinfection during the first stage of an infection on the evolutionary dynamics of the degree to which the host is asymptomatic (host latency) in that same stage. We find that superinfection can lead to major differences in evolutionary behaviour. Most strikingly, the duration of immunity following infection can significantly influence pathogen evolutionary dynamics, whereas without superinfection the outcomes are independent of host immunity. For example, changes in host immunity can drive evolutionary transitions from a fully symptomatic to a fully asymptomatic first infection stage. Additionally, if superinfection relative to susceptible infection is strong enough, evolution can lead to a unique strategy of latency that corresponds to a local fitness minimum, and is therefore invasible by nearby mutants. Thus, this strategy is a branching point, and can lead to coexistence of pathogens with different latencies. Furthermore, in this new framework with superinfection, we also find that there can exist two interior singular strategies. Overall, new evolutionary outcomes can cascade from superinfection.

Tackling microbial threats in agriculture with integrative imaging and computational approaches

Pathogens and pests are one of the major threats to agricultural productivity worldwide. For decades, targeted resistance breeding was used to create crop cultivars that resist pathogens and environmental stress while retaining yields. The often decade-long process of crossing, selection, and field trials to create a new cultivar is challenged by the rapid rise of pathogens overcoming resistance. Similarly, antimicrobial compounds can rapidly lose efficacy due to resistance evolution. Here, we review three major areas where computational, imaging and experimental approaches are revolutionizing the management of pathogen damage on crops. Recognizing and scoring plant diseases have dramatically improved through high-throughput imaging techniques applicable both under well-controlled greenhouse conditions and directly in the field. However, computer vision of complex disease phenotypes will require significant improvements. In parallel, experimental setups similar to high-throughput drug discovery screens make it possible to screen thousands of pathogen strains for variation in resistance and other relevant phenotypic traits. Confocal microscopy and fluorescence can capture rich phenotypic information across pathogen genotypes. Through genome-wide association mapping approaches, phenotypic data helps to unravel the genetic architecture of stress- and virulence-related traits accelerating resistance breeding. Finally, joint, large-scale screenings of trait variation in crops and pathogens can yield fundamental insights into how pathogens face trade-offs in the adaptation to resistant crop varieties. We discuss how future implementations of such innovative approaches in breeding and pathogen screening can lead to more durable disease control.