101
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Retrieval of Melt Ponds on Arctic Multiyear Sea Ice in Summer from TerraSAR-X Dual-Polarization Data Using Machine Learning Approaches: A Case Study in the Chukchi Sea with Mid-Incidence Angle Data. REMOTE SENSING 2016. [DOI: 10.3390/rs8010057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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102
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Hallanger IG, Sagerup K, Evenset A, Kovacs KM, Leonards P, Fuglei E, Routti H, Aars J, Strøm H, Lydersen C, Gabrielsen GW. Organophosphorous flame retardants in biota from Svalbard, Norway. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2015; 101:442-447. [PMID: 26453403 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.09.049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 83] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2015] [Revised: 09/28/2015] [Accepted: 09/30/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Eight arctic species, including fish, birds and mammals, from diverse habitats (marine and terrestrial) within the Svalbard Archipelago, Norway, were screened for 14 organophosphorus flame retardant (PFR) compounds. Ten PFRs were detected: tris(2-chloroethyl)phosphate (TCEP), tris(2-chloroisopropyl)phosphate (TCIPP), tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl)phosphate (TDCIPP), triphenyl phosphate (TPHP); 2-ethylhexyl diphenyl phosphate (EHDPP); tris(2-butoxyethyl)phosphate (TBOEP); tritolyl phosphate (TCrP); triisobutyl phosphate (TIBP); tris(2-ethylhexyl)phosphate (TEHP); and butyl diphenyl phosphate (DPhBP). The greatest number of different PFR compounds, and the highest detection frequency were measured in capelin (Mallotus villotus), and the lowest in Brünnich's guillemot (Uria lomvia). The highest concentrations of ΣPFR, as well as the highest concentration of a single PFR compound, TBOEP, were measured in arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus). The presence of PFR compounds in arctic biota indicates that these compounds can undergo long-range transport and are, to some degree, persistent and bioaccumulated. The potential for biomagnification from fish to higher trophic levels seems to be limited.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ingeborg G Hallanger
- UiT, The Arctic University of Norway, Postboks 6050 Langnes, 9037 Tromsø, Norway.
| | - Kjetil Sagerup
- Akvalan-niva, Fram Centre, Postboks 6606, 9296 Tromsø, Norway.
| | - Anita Evenset
- UiT, The Arctic University of Norway, Postboks 6050 Langnes, 9037 Tromsø, Norway; Akvalan-niva, Fram Centre, Postboks 6606, 9296 Tromsø, Norway.
| | - Kit M Kovacs
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Postboks 6606, 9296 Tromsø, Norway.
| | - Pim Leonards
- VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
| | - Eva Fuglei
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Postboks 6606, 9296 Tromsø, Norway.
| | - Heli Routti
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Postboks 6606, 9296 Tromsø, Norway.
| | - Jon Aars
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Postboks 6606, 9296 Tromsø, Norway.
| | - Hallvard Strøm
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Postboks 6606, 9296 Tromsø, Norway.
| | - Christian Lydersen
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Postboks 6606, 9296 Tromsø, Norway.
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103
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Pape R, Löffler J. Seasonality of habitat selection shown to buffer alpine reindeer pastoralism against climate variability. Ecosphere 2015. [DOI: 10.1890/es15-00169.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
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104
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Christie KS, Bryant JP, Gough L, Ravolainen VT, Ruess RW, Tape KD. The Role of Vertebrate Herbivores in Regulating Shrub Expansion in the Arctic: A Synthesis. Bioscience 2015. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biv137] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
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105
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Gibson-Reinemer DK, Rahel FJ. Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0132103. [PMID: 26162013 PMCID: PMC4498742 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0132103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2015] [Accepted: 06/10/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate in part determines species’ distributions, and species’ distributions are shifting in response to climate change. Strong correlations between the magnitude of temperature changes and the extent of range shifts point to warming temperatures as the single most influential factor causing shifts in species’ distributions species. However, other abiotic and biotic factors may alter or even reverse these patterns. The importance of temperature relative to these other factors can be evaluated by examining range shifts of the same species in different geographic areas. When the same species experience warming in different geographic areas, the extent to which they show range shifts that are similar in direction and magnitude is a measure of temperature’s importance. We analyzed published studies to identify species that have documented range shifts in separate areas. For 273 species of plants, birds, mammals, and marine invertebrates with range shifts measured in multiple geographic areas, 42-50% show inconsistency in the direction of their range shifts, despite experiencing similar warming trends. Inconsistency of within-species range shifts highlights how biotic interactions and local, non-thermal abiotic conditions may often supersede the direct physiological effects of temperature. Assemblages show consistent responses to climate change, but this predictability does not appear to extend to species considered individually.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel K. Gibson-Reinemer
- Program in Ecology and Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Frank J. Rahel
- Program in Ecology and Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, United States of America
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106
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Robertson GS, Bolton M, Morrison P, Monaghan P. Variation in Population Synchrony in a Multi-Species Seabird Community: Response to Changes in Predator Abundance. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0131543. [PMID: 26115174 PMCID: PMC4482655 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131543] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2014] [Accepted: 06/03/2015] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Ecologically similar sympatric species, subject to typical environmental conditions, may be expected to exhibit synchronous temporal fluctuations in demographic parameters, while populations of dissimilar species might be expected to show less synchrony. Previous studies have tested for synchrony in different populations of single species, and those including data from more than one species have compared fluctuations in only one demographic parameter. We tested for synchrony in inter-annual changes in breeding population abundance and productivity among four tern species on Coquet Island, northeast England. We also examined how manipulation of one independent environmental variable (predator abundance) influenced temporal changes in ecologically similar and dissimilar tern species. Changes in breeding abundance and productivity of ecologically similar species (Arctic Sterna paradisaea, Common S. hirundo and Roseate Terns S. dougallii) were synchronous with one another over time, but not with a species with different foraging and breeding behaviour (Sandwich Terns Thalasseus sandvicensis). With respect to changes in predator abundance, there was no clear pattern. Roseate Tern abundance was negatively correlated with that of large gulls breeding on the island from 1975 to 2013, while Common Tern abundance was positively correlated with number of large gulls, and no significant correlations were found between large gull and Arctic and Sandwich Tern populations. Large gull abundance was negatively correlated with productivity of Arctic and Common Terns two years later, possibly due to predation risk after fledging, while no correlation with Roseate Tern productivity was found. The varying effect of predator abundance is most likely due to specific differences in the behaviour and ecology of even these closely-related species. Examining synchrony in multi-species assemblages improves our understanding of how whole communities react to long-term changes in the environment and suggests that changes in predator abundance may differentially affect populations of sympatric seabird species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gail S Robertson
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Mark Bolton
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Sandy, Bedfordshire, United Kingdom
| | - Paul Morrison
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Sandy, Bedfordshire, United Kingdom
| | - Pat Monaghan
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
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107
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Barbraud C, Delord K, Weimerskirch H. Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2015; 2:140456. [PMID: 26064653 PMCID: PMC4453256 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.140456] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2014] [Accepted: 04/23/2015] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982-2013: range 11.3-65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1-32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica.
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108
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Andersen MS, Fuglei E, König M, Lipasti I, Pedersen ÅØ, Polder A, Yoccoz NG, Routti H. Levels and temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) from Svalbard in relation to dietary habits and food availability. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2015; 511:112-122. [PMID: 25536177 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.12.039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2014] [Revised: 12/12/2014] [Accepted: 12/15/2014] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) from Svalbard, Norway, were investigated in relation to feeding habits and seasonal food availability. Arctic foxes from Svalbard forage in both marine and terrestrial ecosystems and the availability of their food items are impacted by climatic variability. Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorinated pesticides (OCPs) and brominated flame retardants (polybrominated diphenyl ethers [PBDEs] and hexabromocyclododecane [HBCDD]) were analyzed in the liver of 141 arctic foxes collected between 1997 and 2013. Stable carbon isotope values (δ13C) were used as a proxy for feeding on marine versus terrestrial prey. The annual number of recovered reindeer carcasses and sea ice cover were used as proxies for climate influenced food availability (reindeers, seals). Linear models revealed that concentrations of PCBs, chlordanes, p,p'-DDE, mirex and PBDEs decreased 4-11% per year, while no trends were observed for hexachlorobenzene (HCB) or β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH). Positive relationships between POP concentrations and δ13C indicate that concentrations of all compounds increase with increasing marine dietary input. Increasing reindeer mortality was related to lower HCB concentrations in the foxes based on the linear models. This suggests that concentrations of HCB in arctic foxes may be influenced by high mortality levels of Svalbard reindeer. Further, β-HCH concentrations showed a positive association with sea ice cover. These results in addition to the strong effect of δ13C on all POP concentrations suggest that climate-related changes in arctic fox diet are likely to influence contaminant concentrations in arctic foxes from Svalbard.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin S Andersen
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, NO-9296 Tromsø, Norway; Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, NO-9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Eva Fuglei
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, NO-9296 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Max König
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, NO-9296 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Inka Lipasti
- Department of Biology, University of Eastern Finland, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland
| | | | - Anuschka Polder
- Department of Food Safety and Infection Biology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway
| | - Nigel G Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, NO-9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Heli Routti
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, NO-9296 Tromsø, Norway.
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109
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110
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Pokrovsky I, Ehrich D, Ims RA, Kondratyev AV, Kruckenberg H, Kulikova O, Mihnevich J, Pokrovskaya L, Shienok A. Rough-legged buzzards, Arctic foxes and red foxes in a tundra ecosystem without rodents. PLoS One 2015; 10:e0118740. [PMID: 25692786 PMCID: PMC4333295 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0118740] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2014] [Accepted: 01/07/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Small rodents with multi-annual population cycles strongly influence the dynamics of food webs, and in particular predator-prey interactions, across most of the tundra biome. Rodents are however absent from some arctic islands, and studies on performance of arctic predators under such circumstances may be very instructive since rodent cycles have been predicted to collapse in a warming Arctic. Here we document for the first time how three normally rodent-dependent predator species-rough-legged buzzard, arctic fox and red fox - perform in a low-arctic ecosystem with no rodents. During six years (in 2006-2008 and 2011-2013) we studied diet and breeding performance of these predators in the rodent-free Kolguev Island in Arctic Russia. The rough-legged buzzards, previously known to be a small rodent specialist, have only during the last two decades become established on Kolguev Island. The buzzards successfully breed on the island at stable low density, but with high productivity based on goslings and willow ptarmigan as their main prey - altogether representing a novel ecological situation for this species. Breeding density of arctic fox varied from year to year, but with stable productivity based on mainly geese as prey. The density dynamic of the arctic fox appeared to be correlated with the date of spring arrival of the geese. Red foxes breed regularly on the island but in very low numbers that appear to have been unchanged over a long period - a situation that resemble what has been recently documented from Arctic America. Our study suggests that the three predators found breeding on Kolguev Island possess capacities for shifting to changing circumstances in low-arctic ecosystem as long as other small - medium sized terrestrial herbivores are present in good numbers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ivan Pokrovsky
- Department of Migration and Immuno-ecology, Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Am Obstberg 1, D-78315, Radolfzell, Germany
| | - Dorothée Ehrich
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, NO-9037, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Rolf A. Ims
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, NO-9037, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Alexander V. Kondratyev
- Institute of Biological Problems of the North, Far-East Branch Russian Academy of Sciences, 685000, Portovaya str. 18, Magadan, Russia
| | - Helmut Kruckenberg
- Institute for Waterbird and Wetlands Research IWWR e.V., Am Steigbügel 3, D-27283, Verden (Aller), Germany
| | - Olga Kulikova
- Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, RU-119991, Moscow, Russia
| | - Julia Mihnevich
- Faculty of Biology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, RU-119991, Moscow, Russia
| | - Liya Pokrovskaya
- Faculty of Biology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, RU-119991, Moscow, Russia
| | - Alexander Shienok
- Faculty of Biology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, RU-119991, Moscow, Russia
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111
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Lee AM, Bjørkvoll EM, Hansen BB, Albon SD, Stien A, Saether BE, Engen S, Veiberg V, Loe LE, Grøtan V. An integrated population model for a long-lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods. OIKOS 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.01924] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Aline M. Lee
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology; NO-7491 Trondheim Norway
- Dept of Environmental Science, Policy and Management; Univ. of California; Berkeley CA 94720-3114 USA
| | - Eirin M. Bjørkvoll
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology; NO-7491 Trondheim Norway
| | - Brage B. Hansen
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology; NO-7491 Trondheim Norway
| | - Steve D. Albon
- The James Hutton Inst.; Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH UK
| | - Audun Stien
- Arctic Ecology Dept; Fram Centre, Norwegian Inst. for Nature Research; NO-9296 Tromsø Norway
| | - Bernt-Erik Saether
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology; NO-7491 Trondheim Norway
| | - Steinar Engen
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology; NO-7491 Trondheim Norway
| | - Vebjørn Veiberg
- Terrestrial Ecology Dept; Norwegian Inst. for Nature Research; NO-7485 Trondheim Norway
| | - Leif E. Loe
- Dept of Ecology and Natural Resource Management; Norwegian Univ. of Life Science; NO-1432 Ås Norway
| | - Vidar Grøtan
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology; NO-7491 Trondheim Norway
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112
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Enhanced Moran effect by spatial variation in environmental autocorrelation. Nat Commun 2015; 6:5993. [DOI: 10.1038/ncomms6993] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2014] [Accepted: 12/01/2014] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
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113
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Ehrich D, Ims RA, Yoccoz NG, Lecomte N, Killengreen ST, Fuglei E, Rodnikova AY, Ebbinge BS, Menyushina IE, Nolet BA, Pokrovsky IG, Popov IY, Schmidt NM, Sokolov AA, Sokolova NA, Sokolov VA. What Can Stable Isotope Analysis of Top Predator Tissues Contribute to Monitoring of Tundra Ecosystems? Ecosystems 2015. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-014-9834-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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114
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van der Wal R, Stien A. High-arctic plants like it hot: a long-term investigation of between-year variability in plant biomass. Ecology 2014. [DOI: 10.1890/14-0533.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 69] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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115
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Cooper EJ. Warmer Shorter Winters Disrupt Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems. ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS 2014. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-120213-091620] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
The Earth is warming, especially in polar areas in which winter temperatures and precipitation are expected to increase. Despite a growing research focus on winter climatic change, the impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems remain poorly understood. Snow acts as an insulator, and depth changes affect the enhancement of thermally dependent reactions, such as microbial activity, affecting soil nutrient composition, respiration, and winter gas efflux. Snow depth and spring temperatures influence snowmelt timing, determining the start of plant growth and forage availability. Delays in winter onset affect tundra carbon balance, faunal hibernation, and migration but are unlikely to lengthen the plant growing season. Mild periods in winter followed by a return to freezing have negative consequences for plants and invertebrates, and the resultant ice layers act as barriers to foraging, triggering starvation of herbivores and their predators. In summary, knock-on effects between seasons and trophic levels have important consequences for biological activity, diversity, and ecosystem function.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisabeth J. Cooper
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway
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116
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Khalil H, Olsson G, Ecke F, Evander M, Hjertqvist M, Magnusson M, Löfvenius MO, Hörnfeldt B. The importance of bank vole density and rainy winters in predicting nephropathia epidemica incidence in Northern Sweden. PLoS One 2014; 9:e111663. [PMID: 25391132 PMCID: PMC4229113 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0111663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2014] [Accepted: 09/29/2014] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Pathogenic hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae, genus Hantavirus) are rodent-borne viruses causing hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In Europe, there are more than 10,000 yearly cases of nephropathia epidemica (NE), a mild form of HFRS caused by Puumala virus (PUUV). The common and widely distributed bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the host of PUUV. In this study, we aim to explain and predict NE incidence in boreal Sweden using bank vole densities. We tested whether the number of rainy days in winter contributed to variation in NE incidence. We forecast NE incidence in July 2013–June 2014 using projected autumn vole density, and then considering two climatic scenarios: 1) rain-free winter and 2) winter with many rainy days. Autumn vole density was a strong explanatory variable of NE incidence in boreal Sweden in 1990–2012 (R2 = 79%, p<0.001). Adding the number of rainy winter days improved the model (R2 = 84%, p<0.05). We report for the first time that risk of NE is higher in winters with many rainy days. Rain on snow and ground icing may block vole access to subnivean space. Seeking refuge from adverse conditions and shelter from predators, voles may infest buildings, increasing infection risk. In a rainy winter scenario, we predicted 812 NE cases in boreal Sweden, triple the number of cases predicted in a rain-free winter in 2013/2014. Our model enables identification of high risk years when preparedness in the public health sector is crucial, as a rainy winter would accentuate risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hussein Khalil
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
- * E-mail:
| | - Gert Olsson
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Frauke Ecke
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
- Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Magnus Evander
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Division of Virology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | - Magnus Magnusson
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | - Birger Hörnfeldt
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden
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117
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Hunter MD, Kozlov MV, Itämies J, Pulliainen E, Bäck J, Kyrö EM, Niemelä P. Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2014; 20:1723-1737. [PMID: 24421221 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2013] [Accepted: 12/27/2013] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time-series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life-history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time-series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential deleterious effects of climate change by other ecological forces.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark D Hunter
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109-1048, USA
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118
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Nahrgang J, Varpe Ø, Korshunova E, Murzina S, Hallanger IG, Vieweg I, Berge J. Gender specific reproductive strategies of an arctic key species (Boreogadus saida) and implications of climate change. PLoS One 2014; 9:e98452. [PMID: 24871481 PMCID: PMC4037215 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2013] [Accepted: 05/02/2014] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The Arctic climate is changing at an unprecedented rate. What consequences this may have on the Arctic marine ecosystem depends to a large degree on how its species will respond both directly to elevated temperatures and more indirectly through ecological interactions. But despite an alarming recent warming of the Arctic with accompanying sea ice loss, reports evaluating ecological impacts of climate change in the Arctic remain sparse. Here, based upon a large-scale field study, we present basic new knowledge regarding the life history traits for one of the most important species in the entire Arctic, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). Furthermore, by comparing regions of contrasting climatic influence (domains), we present evidence as to how its growth and reproductive success is impaired in the warmer of the two domains. As the future Arctic is predicted to resemble today's Atlantic domains, we forecast changes in growth and life history characteristics of polar cod that will lead to alteration of its role as an Arctic keystone species. This will in turn affect community dynamics and energy transfer in the entire Arctic food chain.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jasmine Nahrgang
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway
- * E-mail:
| | - Øystein Varpe
- University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway
- Akvaplan-niva, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Ekaterina Korshunova
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Akvaplan-niva, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Svetlana Murzina
- Institute of Biology of the Karelian Research Centre, Russian Academy of Science, Petrozavodsk, Russia
| | - Ingeborg G. Hallanger
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Ireen Vieweg
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Jørgen Berge
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Norway
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119
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Girardin MP, Guo XJ, De Jong R, Kinnard C, Bernier P, Raulier F. Unusual forest growth decline in boreal North America covaries with the retreat of Arctic sea ice. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2014; 20:851-866. [PMID: 24115302 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12400] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2013] [Revised: 08/26/2013] [Accepted: 09/11/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
The 20th century was a pivotal period at high northern latitudes as it marked the onset of rapid climatic warming brought on by major anthropogenic changes in global atmospheric composition. In parallel, Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing over the period of available satellite data records. Here, we document how these changes influenced vegetation productivity in adjacent eastern boreal North America. To do this, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, model simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and tree-ring width measurements covering the last 300 years. Climatic and proxy-climatic data sets were used to explore the relationships between vegetation productivity and Arctic sea ice concentration and extent, and temperatures. Results indicate that an unusually large number of black spruce (Picea mariana) trees entered into a period of growth decline during the late-20th century (62% of sampled trees; n = 724 cross sections of age >70 years). This finding is coherent with evidence encoded in NDVI and simulated NPP data. Analyses of climatic and vegetation productivity relationships indicate that the influence of recent climatic changes in the studied forests has been via the enhanced moisture stress (i.e. greater water demands) and autotrophic respiration amplified by the declining sea ice concentration in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The recent decline strongly contrasts with other growth reduction events that occurred during the 19th century, which were associated with cooling and high sea ice severity. The recent decline of vegetation productivity is the first one to occur under circumstances related to excess heat in a 300-year period, and further culminates with an intensifying wildfire regime in the region. Our results concur with observations from other forest ecosystems about intensifying temperature-driven drought stress and tree mortality with ongoing climatic changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin P Girardin
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du P.E.P.S, P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Sainte-Foy, Quebec, QC, Canada, G1V 4C7
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120
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Rumpf SB, Semenchuk PR, Dullinger S, Cooper EJ. Idiosyncratic responses of high Arctic plants to changing snow regimes. PLoS One 2014; 9:e86281. [PMID: 24523859 PMCID: PMC3921108 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0086281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2013] [Accepted: 12/12/2013] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The Arctic is one of the ecosystems most affected by climate change; in particular, winter temperatures and precipitation are predicted to increase with consequent changes to snow cover depth and duration. Whether the snow-free period will be shortened or prolonged depends on the extent and temporal patterns of the temperature and precipitation rise; resulting changes will likely affect plant growth with cascading effects throughout the ecosystem. We experimentally manipulated snow regimes using snow fences and shoveling and assessed aboveground size of eight common high arctic plant species weekly throughout the summer. We demonstrated that plant growth responded to snow regime, and that air temperature sum during the snow free period was the best predictor for plant size. The majority of our studied species showed periodic growth; increases in plant size stopped after certain cumulative temperatures were obtained. Plants in early snow-free treatments without additional spring warming were smaller than controls. Response to deeper snow with later melt-out varied between species and categorizing responses by growth forms or habitat associations did not reveal generic trends. We therefore stress the importance of examining responses at the species level, since generalized predictions of aboveground growth responses to changing snow regimes cannot be made.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sabine B. Rumpf
- Department of Conservation Biology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Institute for Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Troms, Norway
- Institute of Interdisciplinary Mountain Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Philipp R. Semenchuk
- Institute for Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Troms, Norway
- Department of Arctic Biology, University Center in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Capital Region of Denmark, Denmark
| | - Stefan Dullinger
- Department of Conservation Biology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses, Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Elisabeth J. Cooper
- Institute for Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Troms, Norway
- * E-mail:
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121
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Bears are simply voles writ large: social structure determines the mechanisms of intrinsic population regulation in mammals. Oecologia 2014; 175:1-10. [PMID: 24481982 PMCID: PMC3992220 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-014-2892-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2013] [Accepted: 01/18/2014] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
The literature reveals opposing views regarding the importance of intrinsic population regulation in mammals. Different models have been proposed; adding importance to contrasting life histories, body sizes and social interactions. Here we evaluate current theory based on results from two Scandinavian projects studying two ecologically different mammal species with contrasting body sizes and life history traits: the root vole Microtus oeconomus and the brown bear Ursus arctos. We emphasize four inter-linked behavioral aspects—territoriality, dispersal, social inhibition of breeding, and infanticide—that together form a density-dependent syndrome with potentially regulatory effects on population growth. We show that the two species are similar in all four behaviors and thus the overall regulatory syndrome. Females form matrilineal assemblages, female natal dispersal is negatively density dependent and breeding is suppressed in philopatric young females. In both species, male turnover due to extrinsic mortality agents cause infanticide with negative effects on population growth. The sex-biased and density-dependent dispersal patterns promote the formation of matrilineal clusters which, in turn, leads to reproductive suppression with potentially regulatory effects. Hence, we show that intrinsic population regulation interacting with extrinsic mortality agents may occur irrespective of taxon, life history and body size. Our review stresses the significance of a mechanistic approach to understanding population ecology. We also show that experimental model populations are useful to elucidate natural populations of other species with similar social systems. In particular, such experiments should be combined with methodical innovations that may unravel the effects of cryptic intrinsic mechanisms such as infanticide.
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122
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Elderd BD, Reilly JR. Warmer temperatures increase disease transmission and outbreak intensity in a host-pathogen system. J Anim Ecol 2014; 83:838-49. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12180] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2013] [Accepted: 11/07/2013] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Bret D. Elderd
- Department of Biological Sciences; Louisiana State University; Baton Rouge LA 70803 USA
| | - James R. Reilly
- Department of Entomology; Rutgers University; New Brunswick NJ 08901 USA
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123
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Büntgen U, Liebhold A, Jenny H, Mysterud A, Egli S, Nievergelt D, Stenseth NC, Bollmann K. European springtime temperature synchronises ibex horn growth across the eastern Swiss Alps. Ecol Lett 2013; 17:303-13. [PMID: 24341995 PMCID: PMC4257578 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2013] [Revised: 10/09/2013] [Accepted: 11/12/2013] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
Direct effects of climate change on animal physiology, and indirect impacts from disruption of seasonal synchrony and breakdown of trophic interactions are particularly severe in Arctic and Alpine ecosystems. Unravelling biotic from abiotic drivers, however, remains challenging because high-resolution animal population data are often limited in space and time. Here, we show that variation in annual horn growth (an indirect proxy for individual performance) of 8043 male Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) over the past four decades is well synchronised among eight disjunct colonies in the eastern Swiss Alps. Elevated March to May temperatures, causing premature melting of Alpine snowcover, earlier plant phenology and subsequent improvement of ibex food resources, fuelled annual horn growth. These results reveal dependency of local trophic interactions on large-scale climate dynamics, and provide evidence that declining herbivore performance is not a universal response to global warming even for high-altitude populations that are also harvested.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ulf Büntgen
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Bern, CH-3012, Switzerland; Global Change Research Centre AS CR, v.v.i., Bělidla 986/4a, Brno, CZ-60300, Czech Republic
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124
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Jensen GH, Madsen J, Johnson FA, Tamstorf MP. Snow conditions as an estimator of the breeding output in high-Arctic pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Polar Biol 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/s00300-013-1404-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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125
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Mori AS, Fujii S, Kurokawa H. Ecological consequences through responses of plant and soil communities to changing winter climate. Ecol Res 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/s11284-013-1091-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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126
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Pedersen ÅØ, Soininen EM, Unander S, Willebrand MH, Fuglei E. Experimental harvest reveals the importance of territoriality in limiting the breeding population of Svalbard rock ptarmigan. EUR J WILDLIFE RES 2013. [DOI: 10.1007/s10344-013-0766-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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127
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Olofsson J, te Beest M, Ericson L. Complex biotic interactions drive long-term vegetation dynamics in a subarctic ecosystem. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2013; 368:20120486. [PMID: 23836791 PMCID: PMC3720058 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting impacts of global warming requires understanding of the extent to which plant biomass and production are controlled by bottom-up and top-down drivers. By annually monitoring community composition in grazed control plots and herbivore-free exclosures at an Arctic location for 15 years, we detected multiple biotic interactions. Regular rodent cycles acted as pulses driving synchronous fluctuations in the biomass of field-layer vegetation; reindeer influenced the biomass of taller shrubs, and the abundance of plant pathogenic fungi increased when densities of their host plants increased in exclosures. Two outbreaks of geometrid moths occurred during the study period, with contrasting effects on the field layer: one in 2004 had marginal effects, while one in 2012 severely reduced biomass in the control plots and eliminated biomass that had accumulated over 15 years in the exclosures. The latter was followed by a dramatic decline of the dominant understory dwarf-shrub Empetrum hermaphroditum, driven by an interaction between moth herbivory on top buds and leaves, and increased disease severity of a pathogenic fungus. We show that the climate has important direct and indirect effects on all these biotic interactions. We conclude that long time series are essential to identify key biotic interactions in ecosystems, since their importance will be influenced by climatic conditions, and that manipulative treatments are needed in order to obtain the mechanistic understanding needed for robust predictions of future ecosystem changes and their feedback effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johan Olofsson
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden.
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128
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Semenchuk PR, Elberling B, Cooper EJ. Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some, but not all species in high arctic Svalbard. Ecol Evol 2013; 3:2586-99. [PMID: 24567826 PMCID: PMC3930050 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.648] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2013] [Revised: 05/09/2013] [Accepted: 05/22/2013] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5 years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering season length and by protecting or exposing flower buds to cold winter air, but most species studied are resistant to changes. Winter warming events, often occurring together with rain, can substantially remove snow cover and thereby expose plants to cold winter air. Depending on morphology, different parts of the plant can be directly exposed. On this picture, we see Dryas octopetala seed heads from the previous growing season protrude through the remaining ice layer after a warming event in early 2010. The rest of the plant, including meristems and flower primordia, are still somewhat protected by the ice. In the background we can see a patch of Cassiope tetragona protruding through the ice; in this case, the whole plant including flower primordia is exposed, which might be one reason why this species experienced a loss of flowers the following season. Photograph by Philipp Semenchuk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philipp R Semenchuk
- Institute for Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø N-9037, Tromsø, Norway ; University Center in Svalbard UNIS N-9071, Longyearbyen, Norway ; Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), University of Copenhagen DK-1350, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Bo Elberling
- University Center in Svalbard UNIS N-9071, Longyearbyen, Norway ; Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), University of Copenhagen DK-1350, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Elisabeth J Cooper
- Institute for Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø N-9037, Tromsø, Norway
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129
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130
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Arctic rain brings animal pain. Nature 2013. [DOI: 10.1038/493455d] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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131
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The different breeding strategies of penguins: A review. C R Biol 2013; 336:1-12. [DOI: 10.1016/j.crvi.2013.02.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2012] [Revised: 01/30/2013] [Accepted: 02/12/2013] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
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