Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Incorporating eco-evolutionary information into species distribution models provides comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change

As climate changes increasingly influence species distributions, ecosystem functions, and biodiversity, the urgency to understand how species' ranges shift under those changes is great. Species distribution models (SDMs) are vital approaches that can predict species distributions under changing climates. However, SDMs based on the species' current occurrences may underestimate the species' climatic tolerances. Integrating species' realized niches at different periods, also known as multi-temporal calibration, can provide an estimation closer to its fundamental niche. Based on this, we further proposed an integrated framework that combines eco-evolutionary data and SDMs (phylogenetically-informed SDMs) to provide comprehensive predictions of species range shifts under climate change. To evaluate our approach's performance, we applied it to a group of related species, the Chrysanthemum zawadskii species complex (Anthemidae, Asteracee). First, we investigated the niche differentiation between species and intraspecific lineages of the complex and estimated their rates of niche evolution. Next, using both standard SDMs and our phylogenetically-informed SDMs, we generated predictions of suitability areas for all species and lineages and compared the results. Finally, we reconstructed the historical range dynamics for the species of this complex. Our results showed that the species and intraspecific lineages of the complex had varying degrees of niche differentiation and different rates of niche evolution. Lineage-level SDMs can provide more realistic predictions for species with intraspecific differentiation than species-level models can. The phylogenetically-informed SDMs provided more complete environmental envelopes and predicted broader potential distributions for all species than the standard SDMs did. Range dynamics varied among the species that have different rates of niche evolution. Our framework integrating eco-evolutionary data and SDMs contributes to a better understanding of the species' responses to climate change and can help to make more targeted conservation efforts for the target species under climate change, particularly for rare species.

Mapping ecosystem services in protected areas. A systematic review

Protected areas (PAs) supply ecosystem services (ES) essential for human wellbeing. Mapping is a critical exercise that allows an understanding of the spatial distribution of the different ES in PAs. This work aims to conduct a systematic literature review on mapping ES in PAs. In order to carry out this systematic review, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses method was applied. The results showed an increase in the number of works between 2012 and 2023, and they were especially conducted in Europe and Asia and less in North America, South America, and Oceania. Most studies were developed in terrestrial areas, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature classified them into types II and IV. Most of the works followed the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment classification and were mainly focused on the supply dimension. Regulating and maintenance and cultural ES were the most mapped dimensions in PAs. The most frequent provisioning ES mapped in PAs were Animals reared for nutritional purposes and Cultivated terrestrial plants grown for nutritional purposes. In regulating and maintenance, Maintaining nursery populations and habitats and Regulation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans were the most analysed. For cultural ES, Characteristics of living systems that enable activities promoting health, recuperation, or enjoyment through active or immersive interactions and Characteristics of living systems that enable aesthetic experiences were the most mapped ES in PAs. Most works followed a quantitative approach, although the number of qualitative studies is high. Finally, most of the works needed to be validated, which may hamper the credibility of mapping ES in PAs. Overall, this systematic review contributed to a global picture of studies distribution, the areas where they are needed, and the most popular dimensions and sections as the methodologies were applied.

The resilience-sustainability-quality of life nexus

Social-ecological resilience (SER), sustainability (SUS) and quality of life including wellbeing (QOL) are distinct but highly interconnected goals that are essential for human survival, development, and adaptation to environmental and socioeconomic changes. However, these goals are often addressed in silos or pairs, and a framework explicitly linking all three is currently lacking. In this paper, we present the SER-SUS-QOL nexus framework and discuss how social and ecological changes affect these goals. The main thrust of this nexus is that efforts toward SER and SUS need to be explicitly framed in terms of the ultimate goal, which has to be the QOL of the present and future generations. We contend that critically assessing the dynamic interplay between SER, SUS and QOL, as well as the factors impacting them, can help promote transformative governance and planning in the contemporary era. Understanding the multifaceted interrelationship between these goals is crucial to empower planners and decision-makers to navigate the complexities of our rapidly changing world and address the challenges brought by interrelated social and ecological changes. To deepen our understanding of this nexus, more research is needed on various issues, including, but not limited to, trade-offs and synergies, cascading effects, spatiotemporal dynamics of SER, SUS and QOL outcomes, potential inconsistencies between SER and transformative changes toward SUS, and the role of local/indigenous/traditional ecological knowledge in transformative governance and planning.

Herbivorous sea urchins (Echinometra mathaei) support resilience on overfished and sedimented tropical reefs

Human impacts are dramatically changing ecological communities, motivating research on resilience. Tropical reefs are increasingly undergoing transitions to short algal turf, a successional community that mediates either recovery to coral by allowing recruitment or transitions to longer turf/macroalgae. Intense herbivory limits turf height; subsequently, overfishing erodes resilience of the desirable coral-dominated reef state. Increased sedimentation also erodes resilience through smothering and herbivory suppression. In spite of this critical role, most herbivory studies on tropical reefs focus on fishes, and the contribution of urchins remains under-studied. To test how different herbivory and sedimentation scenarios impact turf resilience, we experimentally simulated, in situ, four future overfishing scenarios derived from patterns of fish and urchin loss in other reef systems and two future sedimentation regimes. We found urchins were critical to short turf resilience, maintaining this state even with reduced fish herbivory and increased sediment. Further, urchins cleared sediment, facilitating fish herbivory. This study articulates the likelihood of increased reliance on urchins on impacted reefs in the Anthropocene.

Comparative transcriptomics of the chilling stress response in two Asian mangrove species, Bruguiera gymnorhiza and Rhizophora apiculata

Low temperatures largely determine the geographic limits of plant species by reducing survival and growth. Inter-specific differences in the geographic distribution of mangrove species have been associated with cold tolerance, with exclusively tropical species being highly cold-sensitive and subtropical species being relatively cold-tolerant. To identify species-specific adaptations to low temperatures, we compared the chilling stress response of two widespread Indo-West Pacific mangrove species from Rhizophoraceae with differing latitudinal range limits-Bruguiera gymnorhiza (L.) Lam. ex Savigny (subtropical range limit) and Rhizophora apiculata Blume (tropical range limit). For both species, we measured the maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) as a proxy for the physiological condition of the plants and examined gene expression profiles during chilling at 15 and 5 °C. At 15 °C, B. gymnorhiza maintained a significantly higher Fv/Fm than R. apiculata. However, at 5 °C, both species displayed equivalent Fv/Fm values. Thus, species-specific differences in chilling tolerance were only found at 15 °C, and both species were sensitive to chilling at 5 °C. At 15 °C, B. gymnorhiza downregulated genes related to the light reactions of photosynthesis and upregulated a gene involved in cyclic electron flow regulation, whereas R. apiculata downregulated more RuBisCo-related genes. At 5 °C, both species repressed genes related to CO2 assimilation. The downregulation of genes related to light absorption and upregulation of genes related to cyclic electron flow regulation are photoprotective mechanisms that likely contributed to the greater photosystem II photochemical efficiency of B. gymnorhiza at 15 °C. The results of this study provide evidence that the distributional range limits and potentially the expansion rates of plant species are associated with differences in the regulation of photosynthesis and photoprotective mechanisms under low temperatures.

Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901-2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.

Atmospheric CO2 Sequestration in Seawater Enhanced by Molluscan Shell Powders

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) are widely recognized as a promising technology for mitigating climate change. CO2 mineralization using Ca-rich fluids and high-concentration CO2 gas has been studied extensively. However, few studies have reported CO2 mineralization with atmospheric CO2, owing to the difficulty associated with its low concentration. In seawater, the biomineralization process promotes Ca accumulation and CaCO3 precipitation, assisted by specific organic matter. In this study, we examined the conversion of atmospheric CO2 into CaCO3 in seawater using shell powders (Pinctada fucata, Haliotis discus, Crassostrea gigas, Mizuhopecten yessoensis, Turbo sazae, and Saxidomus purpurata). Among the six species, the shell powder of S. purpurata showed the highest rate of CaCO3 formation and recovery of CaCO3. NaClO treatment test revealed that the organic matter in the shells enhanced the CO2 mineralization. All materials used in this study, including atmospheric CO2, seawater, and shells, are economically feasible for large-scale applications. Using shell powder for CO2 mineralization in seawater embodies an innovative technological advancement to address climate change.

Differences in spatial niche of terrestrial mammals when facing extreme snowfall: the case in east Asian forests

BACKGROUND

Recent climate changes have produced extreme climate events. This study focused on extreme snowfall and intended to discuss the vulnerability of temperate mammals against it through interspecies comparisons of spatial niches in northern Japan. We constructed niche models for seven non-hibernating species through wide-scaled snow tracking on skis, whose total survey length was 1144 km.

RESULTS

We detected a low correlation (rs < 0.4) between most pairs of species niches, indicating that most species possessed different overwintering tactics. A morphological advantage in locomotion cost on snow did not always expand niche breadth. In contrast, a spatial niche could respond to (1) drastic landscape change by a diminishing understory due to snow, possibly leading to changes in predator-prey interactions, and (2) the mass of cold air, affecting thermoregulatory cost and food accessibility. When extraordinary snowfall occurred, the nonarboreal species with larger body sizes could niche shift, whereas the smaller-sized or semi-arboreal mammals did not. In addition, compared to omnivores, herbivores were prone to severe restriction of niche breadth due to a reduction in food accessibility under extreme climates.

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary habits and body size could determine the redundancy of niche width, which may govern robustness/vulnerability to extreme snowfall events.

Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche

Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.

A conceptual framework for understanding stress-induced physiological and transgenerational effects on population responses to climate change

Organisms are experiencing higher average temperatures and greater temperature variability because of anthropogenic climate change. Some populations respond to changes in temperature by shifting their ranges or adjusting their phenotypes via plasticity and/or evolution, while others go extinct. Predicting how populations will respond to temperature changes is challenging because extreme and unpredictable climate changes will exert novel selective pressures. For this reason, there is a need to understand the physiological mechanisms that regulate organismal responses to temperature changes. In vertebrates, glucocorticoid hormones mediate physiological and behavioral responses to environmental stressors and thus are likely to play an important role in how vertebrates respond to global temperature changes. Glucocorticoids have cascading effects that influence the phenotype and fitness of individuals, and some of these effects can be transmitted to offspring via trans- or intergenerational effects. Consequently, glucocorticoid-mediated responses could affect populations and could even be a powerful driver of rapid evolutionary change. Here, we present a conceptual framework that outlines how temperature changes due to global climate change could affect population persistence via glucocorticoid responses within and across generations (via epigenetic modifications). We briefly review glucocorticoid physiology, the interactions between environmental temperatures and glucocorticoid responses, and the phenotypic consequences of glucocorticoid responses within and across generations. We then discuss possible hypotheses for how glucocorticoid-mediated phenotypic effects might impact fitness and population persistence via evolutionary change. Finally, we pose pressing questions to guide future research. Understanding the physiological mechanisms that underpin the responses of vertebrates to elevated temperatures will help predict population-level responses to the changing climates we are experiencing.

Mean reef fish body size decreases towards warmer waters

Aquatic ectotherms often attain smaller body sizes at higher temperatures. By analysing ~15,000 coastal-reef fish surveys across a 15°C spatial sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we found that the mean length of fish in communities decreased by ~5% for each 1°C temperature increase across space, or 50% decrease in mean length from 14 to 29°C mean annual SST. Community mean body size change was driven by differential temperature responses within trophic groups and temperature-driven change in their relative abundance. Herbivores, invertivores and planktivores became smaller on average in warmer temperatures, but no trend was found in piscivores. Nearly 25% of the temperature-related community mean size trend was attributable to trophic composition at the warmest sites, but at colder temperatures, this was <1% due to trophic groups being similarly sized. Our findings suggest that small changes in temperature are associated with large changes in fish community composition and body sizes, with important ecological implications.

Agency in the Anthropocene: education for planetary health

Collective action is essential to address planetary health as current and future environmental challenges are socioecological and require coordinated, informed, and sustained action from all societal sectors. Education that engages intergenerational communities is a crucial means of building collective action as it provides opportunities to develop an informed citizenry capable of making the necessary decisions to work towards planetary health. Schools are valuable sites of community learning and action, and will benefit from a new orientation towards and commitment to educator training, curriculum development, and youth agency. This orientation is supported by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Programme for International Student Assessment's (PISA) 2025 Science Framework, which measures the competence (skills and knowledge) of 15-year-old students. This Personal View describes a new concept, Agency in the Anthropocene, a contributing element of the 2025 Science Framework that defines the way science education could develop agency and hope in this era of socioecological challenges that are impacting planetary health.

The role of microbial biofilms in range shifts of marine habitat-forming organisms

Marine species, such as corals and kelp, are responding to climate change by altering their distributions. Microbial biofilms underpin key processes that affect the establishment, maintenance, and function of these dominant habitat-formers. Climate-mediated changes to microbial biofilms can therefore strongly influence species' range shifts. Here, we review emerging research on the interactions between benthic biofilms and habitat-formers and identify two key areas of interaction where climate change can impact this dynamic: (i) via direct effects on biofilm composition, and (ii) via impacts on the complex feedback loops which exist between the biofilm microbes and habitat-forming organisms. We propose that these key interactions will be fundamental in driving the speed and extent of tropicalisation of coastal ecosystems under climate change.

Occupancy trends of overwintering coastal waterbird communities reveal guild-specific patterns of redistribution and shifting reliance on existing protected areas

Climate change and anthropogenic stressors are redistributing species and altering community composition globally. Protected areas (PAs) may not sufficiently protect populations of species undergoing distributional shifts, necessitating that we evaluate existing PAs and identify areas for future protection to conserve biodiversity across regional and temporal scales. Coastal waterbirds are important indicators of marine ecosystem health, representing mobile, long-lived, higher trophic-level consumers. Using a 20-year citizen science dataset (1999-2019) with a before-after control-intervention sampling framework for habitat protection, we applied dynamic occupancy models to assess winter occupancy trends along the Pacific coast of Canada. Specifically, we sought to understand potential drivers of regional declines, spatial commonalities among guilds, and changes in habitat use before and after PA designation, as well as between PAs and non-PAs. Occupancy trends varied regionally, with greater declines in the south compared to the north. Regional differences underlined potential range shifts, particularly for species with traits linked to temperature tolerance, movement, and high productivity foraging, as cold-tolerant, migratory benthivores and piscivores wintered farther north relative to 20 years ago or retreated to cold-water fjords. While 21 of 57 (36.8%) species responded positively to PA designation (before-after), greater occupancy declines tended to occur in PAs established pre-1999 relative to non-PAs (control-intervention). Since PAs are currently concentrated in the south, negative associations were most apparent for species retreating northward, but existing PAs may have a stabilizing or transitory effect on southern wintering species shifting into the region from farther south. We emphasize that conservation strategies must balance persistence of current communities with preserving the climate-adapted biodiversity of tomorrow by accounting for community-level effects of species moving into and out of existing PAs. Incorporating range shifts into PA planning by predicting distributional changes will allow conservation practitioners to identify priority habitats, such as cold-water refugia, for persistent wildlife communities.

A fiddler crab reduces plant growth in its expanded range

Species across the planet are shifting or expanding their ranges because of climate change. These are climate migrants. Although climate migrants are well documented, their impacts on recipient ecosystems are not. Climate migrants that are also ecosystem engineers (species that modify or create habitats) will likely have profound effects on ecosystems. The Atlantic marsh fiddler crab, Minuca pugnax, is a burrowing crab that recently expanded its range into the northeastern United States. In its historical range, M. pugnax enhances the aboveground growth of the cordgrass Spartina alterniflora, a plant critical to marsh persistence. In a control-impact study, however, we found that Spartina aboveground biomass was 40% lower when M. pugnax was present. Thus, the positive effect of M. pugnax on Spartina aboveground biomass flipped to a negative one in its expanded range. Spartina belowground biomass was also 30% lower on average when crabs were present, a finding consistent with what is seen in the historical range. These impacts on Spartina are likely due to burrowing by M. pugnax. Benthic microalgae was, on average, 45% lower when crabs were present. Fiddler crabs eat benthic microalgae, and these results suggest that fiddler crabs can control algal biomass via grazing. Because fiddler crabs reduced the biomass of foundational primary producers in its expanded range, our results imply that M. pugnax can influence other saltmarsh functions such as carbon storage and accretion as they expand north. Most strikingly, our results suggest that as species expand or shift their range with climate change, not only can they have profound impacts in their new ranges but those impacts can be the inverse of what is seen in their historical ranges.

Research on the Changes in Distribution and Habitat Suitability of the Chinese Red Panda Population

The study of the dynamics of species habitat is of great significance for maintaining or adjusting the current habitat protection management strategy. However, the current research on the Chinese red panda's habitat is limited to the analysis of a single period, which makes it difficult to quantify the changes in its habitat on a temporal scale and greatly hinders the formulation of the overall protection and management strategies that are to be used for the Chinese red panda. This study simulated habitat suitability at different temporal scales to quantify the trend of changes in habitat quality and analyzed the reasons for the changes in habitat suitability in certain regions. The results showed that the overall suitability of the Chinese red panda's habitat increased and that the area of suitable habitats expanded. Suitable Chinese red panda habitats in the mountains of Qionglai (1662.73 km2), Daxiangling (230.30 km2), Xiaoxiangling (549.47 km2), and Liangshan (50.39 km2) increased by a total of 2452.89 km2. The suitability of habitats in the central part of the Liangshan Mountains has declined significantly, which is positively correlated with changes in temperature seasonality (BIO4, R = 0.18) and negatively correlated with changes in annual average temperature (BIO1, R = -0.03) as well as changes in the proportion of farmland (FARMLAND, R = -0.14). The local extinction of isolated populations of Chinese red pandas in the Minshan Mountains is the main factor leading to their distribution retreat rather than a decrease in habitat quality. The research results help us to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of conservation and management strategies for Chinese red pandas at different scales.

The owls are coming: positive effects of climate change in Northern ecosystems depend on grassland protection

Climate-driven migrations towards Northern latitudes are expected to reorganize biotic communities as result of range shift dynamics. However, the establishment of healthy populations of migrating species depends on habitat provision by receptor landscapes. Here, we ask if the rising temperatures and changes in precipitation regimes in western North America are likely to lead to an expansion of warm and dry-affiliated species, using the burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) as a study case. This migratory species depends on grassland habitats for nesting and breeding, so we test for the effect of the lack of grasslands on the occupancy of future suitable environments. To estimate the burrowing owl's potential distribution, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) calibrated with climate and soil information and projected onto future scenarios of climate change (low versus high greenhouse gas emission). Then, we simulated environmental sorting using habitat filter masks derived from information on habitat use and forecasts of future land use change, focusing on grasslands as nesting and breeding habitat. We found that the burrowing owl could expand its geographic distribution by 3 to 10-fold towards Northern latitudes, especially under high-emission scenarios of climate change. However, nearly half of the suitable environments (up to 53,593 km2 of locations with suitable climate and soil) might not be covered by grasslands, due to conversion to agriculture and other human land uses which may prevent the establishment of breeding populations. Our results shed light on the pervasive effects of neglecting the preservation of grasslands across western North America, which could provide critically needed habitat for migrating species from lower latitudes. Enhancing and facilitating the colonization of novel species is a shift in the static paradigm of biodiversity conservation and a proactive measure for climate change adaptation.

Climate-driven invasion and incipient warnings of kelp ecosystem collapse

Climate change is progressively redistributing species towards the Earth's poles, indicating widespread potential for ecosystem collapse. Detecting early-warning-signals and enacting adaptation measures is therefore a key imperative for humanity. However, detecting early-warning signals has remained elusive and has focused on exceptionally high-frequency and/ or long-term time-series, which are generally unattainable for most ecosystems that are under-sampled and already impacted by warming. Here, we show that a catastrophic phase-shift in kelp ecosystems, caused by range-extension of an overgrazing sea urchin, also propagates poleward. Critically, we show that incipient spatial-pattern-formations of kelp overgrazing are detectable well-in-advance of collapse along temperate reefs in the ocean warming hotspot of south-eastern Australia. Demonstrating poleward progression of collapse over 15 years, these early-warning 'incipient barrens' are now widespread along 500 km of coast with projections indicating that half of all kelp beds within this range-extension region will collapse by ~2030. Overgrazing was positively associated with deep boulder-reefs, yet negatively associated with predatory lobsters and subordinate abalone competitors, which have both been intensively fished. Climate-driven collapse of ecosystems is occurring; however, by looking equatorward, space-for-time substitutions can enable practical detection of early-warning spatial-pattern-formations, allowing local climate adaptation measures to be enacted in advance.

Deep learning to extract the meteorological by-catch of wildlife cameras

Microclimate-proximal climatic variation at scales of metres and minutes-can exacerbate or mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, most microclimate studies are temperature centric, and do not consider meteorological factors such as sunshine, hail and snow. Meanwhile, remote cameras have become a primary tool to monitor wild plants and animals, even at micro-scales, and deep learning tools rapidly convert images into ecological data. However, deep learning applications for wildlife imagery have focused exclusively on living subjects. Here, we identify an overlooked opportunity to extract latent, ecologically relevant meteorological information. We produce an annotated image dataset of micrometeorological conditions across 49 wildlife cameras in South Africa's Maloti-Drakensberg and the Swiss Alps. We train ensemble deep learning models to classify conditions as overcast, sunshine, hail or snow. We achieve 91.7% accuracy on test cameras not seen during training. Furthermore, we show how effective accuracy is raised to 96% by disregarding 14.1% of classifications where ensemble member models did not reach a consensus. For two-class weather classification (overcast vs. sunshine) in a novel location in Svalbard, Norway, we achieve 79.3% accuracy (93.9% consensus accuracy), outperforming a benchmark model from the computer vision literature (75.5% accuracy). Our model rapidly classifies sunshine, snow and hail in almost 2 million unlabelled images. Resulting micrometeorological data illustrated common seasonal patterns of summer hailstorms and autumn snowfalls across mountains in the northern and southern hemispheres. However, daily patterns of sunshine and shade diverged between sites, impacting daily temperature cycles. Crucially, we leverage micrometeorological data to demonstrate that (1) experimental warming using open-top chambers shortens early snow events in autumn, and (2) image-derived sunshine marginally outperforms sensor-derived temperature when predicting bumblebee foraging. These methods generate novel micrometeorological variables in synchrony with biological recordings, enabling new insights from an increasingly global network of wildlife cameras.

Vulnerability of protected areas to future climate change, land use modification, and biological invasions in China

Anthropogenic climate change, land use modifications, and alien species invasions are major threats to global biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) are regarded as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, however, few studies have quantified the vulnerability of PAs to these global change factors together. Here, we overlay the risks of climate change, land use change, and alien vertebrate establishment within boundaries of a total of 1020 PAs with different administrative levels in China to quantify their vulnerabilities. Our results show that 56.6% of PAs will face at least one stress factor, and 21 PAs are threatened under the highest risk with three stressors simultaneously. PAs designed for forest conservation in Southwest and South China are most sensitive to the three global change factors. In addition, wildlife and wetland PAs are predicted to mainly experience climate change and high land use anthropogenetic modifications, and many wildlife PAs can also provide suitable habitats for alien vertebrate establishment. Our study highlights the urgent need for proactive conservation and management planning of Chinese PAs by considering different global change factors together.

Natural recovery of corals after severe disturbance

Ecosystem recovery from human-induced disturbances, whether through natural processes or restoration, is occurring worldwide. Yet, recovery dynamics, and their implications for broader ecosystem management, remain unclear. We explored recovery dynamics using coral reefs as a case study. We tracked the fate of 809 individual coral recruits that settled after a severe bleaching event at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Recruited Acropora corals, first detected in 2020, grew to coral cover levels that were equivalent to global average coral cover within just 2 years. Furthermore, we found that just 11.5 Acropora recruits per square meter were sufficient to reach this cover within 2 years. However, wave exposure, growth form and colony density had a marked effect on recovery rates. Our results underscore the importance of considering natural recovery in management and restoration and highlight how lessons learnt from reef recovery can inform our understanding of recovery dynamics in high-diversity climate-disturbed ecosystems.

Daily thermal variability does not modify long-term gene expression relative to stable thermal environments: A case study of a tropical fish

Global warming is leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, magnifying the breadth of temperatures faced by ectotherms across days and seasons. Despite the importance and ecological relevance of diurnal thermal variability, the vast majority of knowledge on gene expression patterns and physiology stems from animals acclimated to constant temperatures or in the early stages of exposure to a new temperature regime. If heterothermal environments modulate responses differently from constant thermal environments, our existing capacity to forecast impacts of climate warming may be compromised. To address this knowledge gap, we acclimated barramundi (Lates calcarifer) to 23 °C, 29 °C (optimal), 35 °C and to thermal cycling conditions (23-35 °C daily with a mean of 29 °C) and sampled liver and white muscle tissue before acclimation and after 2 and 17 weeks of acclimation. NanoString nCounter technologies were used to measure expression of 20 genes related to metabolism, growth and maintenance of cellular homeostasis. Acclimation to cool and warm conditions caused predictable changes in whole-animal performance (metabolism and growth) and the underlying gene expression patterns. Acclimation to a cycling temperature regime did not change the molecular regulation of metabolism or growth compared with barramundi acclimated to constant 29 °C, nor did it cause any discernible effects on whole-animal performance. However, the heat shock response was higher in the former group, suggesting that barramundi under a daily temperature cycle have an increased need for cellular chaperoning to minimise detrimental effects of temperature on proteins. We conclude that the genetic regulation of metabolism and growth may be more dependent on the mean daily temperature than on the daily temperature range.

Merging trait-based ecology and regime shift theory to anticipate community responses to warming

Anthropogenic warming is altering species abundance, distribution, physiology, and more. How changes observed at the species level alter emergent community properties is an active and urgent area of research. Trait-based ecology and regime shift theory provide complementary ways to understand climate change impacts on communities, but these two bodies of work are only rarely integrated. Lack of integration handicaps our ability to understand community responses to warming, at a time when such understanding is critical. Therefore, we advocate for merging trait-based ecology with regime shift theory. We propose a general set of principles to guide this merger and apply these principles to research on marine communities in the rapidly warming North Atlantic. In our example, combining trait distribution and regime shift analyses at the community level yields greater insight than either alone. Looking forward, we identify a clear need for expanding quantitative approaches to collecting and merging trait-based and resilience metrics in order to advance our understanding of climate-driven community change.

Habitat modulates population-level responses of freshwater salmon growth to a century of change in climate and competition

The impacts of climate change are widespread and threaten natural systems globally. Yet, within regions, heterogeneous physical landscapes can differentially filter climate, leading to local response diversity. For example, it is possible that while freshwater lakes are sensitive to climate change, they may exhibit a diversity of thermal responses owing to their unique morphology, which in turn can differentially affect the growth and survival of vulnerable biota such as fishes. In particular, salmonids are cold-water fishes with complex life histories shaped by diverse freshwater habitats that are sensitive to warming temperatures. Here we examine the influence of habitat on the growth of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in nursery lakes of Canada's Skeena River watershed over a century of change in regional temperature and intraspecific competition. We found that freshwater growth has generally increased over the last century. While growth tended to be higher in years with relatively higher summer air temperatures (a proxy for lake temperature), long-term increases in growth appear largely influenced by reduced competition. However, habitat played an important role in modulating the effect of high temperature. Specifically, growth was positively associated with rising temperatures in relatively deep (>50 m) nursery lakes, whereas warmer temperatures were not associated with a change in growth for fish among shallow lakes. The influence of temperature on growth also was modulated by glacier extent whereby the growth of fish from lakes situated in watersheds with little (i.e., <5%) glacier cover increased with rising temperatures, but decreased with rising temperatures for fish in lakes within more glaciated watersheds. Maintaining the integrity of an array of freshwater habitats-and the processes that generate and maintain them-will help foster a diverse climate-response portfolio for important fish species, which in turn can ensure that salmon watersheds are resilient to future environmental change.

Projection of current and future distribution of adaptive genetic units in an alpine ungulate

Climate projections predict major changes in alpine environments by the end of the 21st century. To avoid climate-induced maladaptation and extinction, many animal populations will either need to move to more suitable habitats or adapt in situ to novel conditions. Since populations of a species exhibit genetic variation related to local adaptation, it is important to incorporate this variation into predictive models to help assess the ability of the species to survive climate change. Here, we evaluate how the adaptive genetic variation of a mountain ungulate-the Northern chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra)-could be impacted by future global warming. Based on genotype-environment association analyses of 429 chamois using a ddRAD sequencing approach, we identified genetic variation associated with climatic gradients across the European Alps. We then delineated adaptive genetic units and projected the optimal distribution of these adaptive groups in the future. Our results suggest the presence of local adaptation to climate in Northern chamois with similar genetic adaptive responses in geographically distant but climatically similar populations. Furthermore, our results predict that future climatic changes will modify the Northern chamois adaptive landscape considerably, with various degrees of maladaptation risk.

Unequal climate impacts on global values of natural capital

Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity1. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits2,3. However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being4. Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses.

Climate-Change Impacts on Cephalopods: A Meta-Analysis

Aside from being one of the most fascinating groups of marine organisms, cephalopods play a major role in marine food webs, both as predators and as prey, while representing key living economic assets, namely for artisanal and subsistence fisheries worldwide. Recent research suggests that cephalopods are benefitting from ongoing environmental changes and the overfishing of certain fish stocks (i.e., of their predators and/or competitors), putting forward the hypothesis that this group may be one of the few "winners" of climate change. While many meta-analyses have demonstrated negative and overwhelming consequences of ocean warming (OW), acidification (OA), and their combination for a variety of marine taxa, such a comprehensive analysis is lacking for cephalopod molluscs. In this context, the existing literature was surveyed for peer-reviewed articles featuring the sustained (≥24 h) and controlled exposure of cephalopod species (Cephalopoda class) to these factors, applying a comparative framework of mixed-model meta-analyses (784 control-treatment comparisons, from 47 suitable articles). Impacts on a wide set of biological categories at the individual level (e.g., survival, metabolism, behavior, cell stress, growth) were evaluated and contrasted across different ecological attributes (i.e., taxonomic lineages, climates, and ontogenetic stages). Contrary to what is commonly assumed, OW arises as a clear threat to cephalopods, while OA exhibited more restricted impacts. In fact, OW impacts were ubiquitous across different stages of ontogeny, taxonomical lineages (i.e., octopuses, squids, and cuttlefish). These results challenge the assumption that cephalopods benefit from novel ocean conditions, revealing an overarching negative impact of OW in this group. Importantly, we also identify lingering literature gaps, showing that most studies to date focus on OW and early life stages of mainly temperate species. Our results raise the need to consolidate experimental efforts in a wider variety of taxa, climate regions, life stages, and other key environmental stressors, such as deoxygenation and hypoxia, to better understand how cephalopods will cope with future climate change.

Habitat sensitivity in the West African coastal area: inferences and implications for regional adaptations to climate change and ocean acidification

This study focuses on assessing coastal vulnerability and habitat sensitivity along the West African coast by delineating hotspots based on surface temperature, pH, chlorophyll-a, particulate organic carbon, and carbonate concentrations between 2018 and 2023 depending on data availability. Initial exploration of these variables revealed two distinct focal points i.e., the Togo-Nigerian coastal stretch and the stretch from Sierra Leone to Mauritania. Lower pH trends (acidification) in surface waters were observed off the West African coast, particularly in areas around the south-south Niger Delta in Nigeria and the coastal regions of Guinea and Guinea Bissau. Sea surface temperature analysis revealed highest temperatures (27-30°C) within Nigeria to Guinea coastal stretch, intermediate temperatures (24-27°C) within the Guinea Bissau and Senegal coastal stretch, and the lowest temperatures off the coast of Mauritania. Furthermore, correlation analysis between sea surface temperature and calcite concentration in the Mauritania-Senegal hotspot, as well as between overland runoff and particulate organic carbon in the Togo-Nigeria hotspot, revealed strong positive associations (r>0.60) and considerable predictive variability (R2 ≈ 0.40). From the habitat sensitivity analysis, certain regions, including Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone, exhibited high sensitivity due to environmental challenges and strong human dependence on coastal resources. Conversely, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and Togo displayed lower sensitivity, influenced by geographical-related factors (e.g. coastal layout, topography, etc.) and current levels of economic development (relatively lower industrialization levels). Regional pH variations in West African coastal waters have profound implications for ecosystems, fisheries, and communities. Addressing these challenges requires collaborative regional policies to safeguard shared marine resources. These findings underscore the link between ecosystem health, socioeconomics, and the need for integrated coastal management and ongoing research to support effective conservation.

Estimating the Potential of Insects from Warmer Regions to Overwinter in Colder Regions under a Warming Winter Scenario Using Simulation Experiments: A Case Study in Sesamia nonagrioides

Ongoing climate change and anthropogenic pressure are having a profound influence on insects, causing species diversity to decline and populations to shrink. Insect pests invade new areas and cause economic and human health problems. Low temperatures in winter are thought to be one of the main barriers to the successful colonization of higher latitudes. Climate models predict that winter temperatures will increase more than summer temperatures in temperate and polar regions, potentially allowing species from warmer climates to colonize higher latitudes. Understanding how climate change will affect the distribution of insects is critical to many areas of human activity. One possible but seldom used way to predict likely range shifts of insects due to climate change is through simulation experiments. Here, I present and test a method to assess the potential of insect species from warmer regions to survive winters in colder regions under a warming winter scenario. The method is based on laboratory simulations of warming winters. The applicability of the method is demonstrated using the example of a Mediterranean pest, Sesamia nonagrioides, whose ability to survive Central European winters under a warming winter scenario is assessed. The method presented here is relatively simple, with potentially high accuracy of estimates.

Assessment of suitable areas for afforestation and its carbon sink value in fragile ecological areas of northern China

Afforestation and reforestation are pivotal in mitigating land degradation and bolstering the carbon sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the potential economic ramifications of afforestation and reforestation in the context of climate change remain largely unexplored. In this study, we employed an interdisciplinary methodology to establish a framework for assessing future forest potential and carbon sequestration in the Eastern Loess Plateau region of China. Our findings indicate that an estimated 17,392.99 km2 of land suitable for afforestation still existed within the region, exhibiting a propensity to aggregate around existing forests rather than being dispersed randomly. Notably, 4385.36 km2 was prioritized for afforestation initiatives. Projections suggest a significant enhancement of the forest carbon sink within the study area by 2050, ranging from 36.93 Mt to 105.38 Mt. The corresponding economic value for this enhancement is estimated to vary between US$3.25 billion and US$17.68 billion. Of significance is the observed polarization of the region's carbon sink capacity over time, with half of the total carbon sinks concentrated within 10% of the districts. Additionally, approximately 26% of the counties are expected to transition from carbon sinks to carbon sources. These findings underscore the substantial impact of climate change on forest distribution and suggest a targeted approach to combat forest degradation by circumventing ineffective afforestation activities.

Past and future trends of diurnal temperature range and their correlation with vegetation assessed by MODIS and CMIP6

Temperature anomalies and changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are expected to pose physiological challenges to biota; hence, both spatial and temporal variations in DTR provide important insights into temperature-induced stress in humans, animals, and vegetation. Furthermore, vegetation could dampen temperature variability. Here, we use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data of Land Surface Temperature (LST) to evaluate the global variation in DTR and its rate of change in spatial and temporal scales for the two decades spanning from 2001 to 2020. We show that North America, Africa, and Antarctica, as well as the global mean, experienced statistically significant DTR rates of change over the last 20 years in either summer, winter, or the annual mean. The rates were all negative, indicating the day-night temperature differences are decreasing in those regions because night temperatures are increasing at a faster rate than day temperatures. MODIS data of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) revealed a strongly negative correlation with DTR, with a spatial correlation coefficient of -0.61. This correlation demonstrates a prominent dampening effect of vegetation on diurnal temperature oscillations. For future DTR projections, we used 19 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to predict global DTR trends from 2021 to 2050 with low and high CO2 concentration scenarios. The high CO2 emission scenario projects significant decreases in DTR in circumpolar regions, central Africa, and India compared to the low CO2 scenario. This difference in the two scenarios underscores the substantial influence of increased global temperatures and elevated CO2 concentration on DTR and, consequently, on the ecosystems in certain regions.

The impacts of thermal heterogeneity across microhabitats on post-settlement selection of intertidal mussels

Rapid genetic selection is critical for allowing natural populations to adapt to different thermal environments such as those that occur across intertidal microhabitats with high degrees of thermal heterogeneity. To address the question of how thermal regimes influence selection and adaptation in the intertidal black mussel Mytilisepta virgata, we continuously recorded environmental temperatures in both tidal pools and emergent rock microhabitats and then assessed genetic differentiation, gene expression patterns, RNA editing level, and cardiac performance. Our results showed that the subpopulations in the tidal pool and on emergent rocks had different genetic structures and exhibited different physiological and molecular responses to high-temperature stress. These results indicate that environmental heterogeneity across microhabitats is important for driving genetic differentiation and shed light on the importance of post-settlement selection for adaptively modifying the genetic composition and thermal responses of these intertidal mussels.

Climate Change Potentially Leads to Habitat Expansion and Increases the Invasion Risk of Hydrocharis (Hydrocharitaceae)

Climate change is a crucial factor impacting the geographical distribution of plants and potentially increases the risk of invasion for certain species, especially for aquatic plants dispersed by water flow. Here, we combined six algorithms provided by the biomod2 platform to predict the changes in global climate-suitable areas for five species of Hydrocharis (Hydrocharitaceae) (H. chevalieri, H. dubia, H. laevigata, H. morsus-ranae, and H. spongia) under two current and future carbon emission scenarios. Our results show that H. dubia, H. morsus-ranae, and H. laevigata had a wide range of suitable areas and a high risk of invasion, while H. chevalieri and H. spongia had relatively narrow suitable areas. In the future climate scenario, the species of Hydrocharis may gain a wider habitat area, with Northern Hemisphere species showing a trend of migration to higher latitudes and the change in tropical species being more complex. The high-carbon-emission scenario led to greater changes in the habitat area of Hydrocharis. Therefore, we recommend strengthening the monitoring and reporting of high-risk species and taking effective measures to control the invasion of Hydrocharis species.

Ecosystem-level responses to multiple stressors using a time-dynamic food-web model: The case of a re-oligotrophicated coastal embayment (Saronikos Gulf, E Mediterranean)

Multiple stressors may combine in unexpected ways to alter the structure of ecological systems, however, our current ability to evaluate their ecological impact is limited due to the lack of information concerning historic trophic interactions and ecosystem dynamics. Saronikos Gulf is a heavily exploited embayment in the E Mediterranean that has undergone significant ecological alterations during the last 20 years including a shift from long-standing eutrophic to oligotrophic conditions in the mid-2000's. Here we used a historical Ecopath food-web model of Saronikos Gulf (1998-2000) and fitted the time-dynamic module Ecosim to biomass and catch time series for the period 2001-2020. We then projected the model forward in time from 2021 to 2050 under 8 scenarios to simulate ecosystem responses to the individual and combined effect of sea surface temperature increase, primary productivity shifts and fishing effort release. Incorporating trophic interactions, climate warming, fishing and primary production improved model fit, depicting that both fishing and the environment have historically influenced ecosystem dynamics. Retrospective simulations of the model captured historical biomass and catch trends of commercially important stocks and reproduced successfully the marked recovery of marine resources 10 years after re-oligotrophication. In future scenarios increasing temperature had a detrimental impact on most functional groups, increasing and decreasing productivity had a positive and negative effect on all respectively, while fishing reductions principally benefited top predators. Combined stressors produced synergistic or antagonistic effects depending on the direction and magnitude of change of each stressor in isolation while their overall impact seemed to be strongly mediated via food-web interactions. Such holistic approaches advance of our mechanistic understanding of ecosystems enabling us to develop more effective management strategies in the face of a rapidly changing marine environment.

Warming reduces microeukaryotic diversity, network complexity and stability

Unraveling how climate warming affects microorganisms and the underlying mechanisms has been a hot topic in climate change and microbial ecology. To date, many studies have reported microbial responses to climate warming, especially in soil ecosystems, however, knowledge of how warming influences microeukaryotic diversity, network complexity and stability in lake ecosystems, in particular the possible underlying mechanisms, is largely unknown. To address this gap, we conducted 20 mesocosms spanning five temperature scenarios (26 °C, 27.5 °C, 29 °C, 30.5 °C, and 32 °C) in Lake Bosten, a hotspot for studying climate change, and investigated microeukaryotic communities using 18S rRNA gene sequencing. Our results demonstrated that warming, time, and their interactions significantly reduced microeukaryotic α-diversity (two-way ANOVA: P＜0.01). Although warming did not significantly affect microeukaryotic community structure (ANOSIM: P＞0.05), it enhanced species turnover. Microeukaryotic networks exhibited distinct co-occurrence patterns and topological properties across temperature scenarios. Warming reduced network complexity and stability, as well as altered species interactions. Collectively, these findings are likely to have implications for ecological management of lake ecosystems, in particular semi-arid and arid regions, and for predicting ecological consequences of climate change.

Climate variability hypothesis is partially supported in thermal limits of juvenile Northwest Atlantic coastal fishes

As ocean warming continues to impact marine species globally, there is a need to understand the mechanisms underlying shifts in abundance and distribution. There is growing evidence that upper and lower temperature tolerances rather than mean preferences explain range shifts, but the full thermal niche is unknown for many marine species and observational data are often ill-suited to estimate the upper and lower thermal tolerances. We quantified critical thermal maximum (CTmax ) and critical thermal minimum (CTmin ) using standard methods to quantify temperature limits and thermal ranges of 14 economically and ecologically important juvenile fish species on the US Atlantic coast. We then tested the climate variability hypothesis (CVH), which states that higher-latitude species should have a wider temperature tolerance due to higher climatic variability closer to the poles. Our findings generally support the CVH in the juvenile fishes that we evaluated. However, low-latitude species were not uniformly stenothermal. Rather, species with median occurrences across a wide range of latitudes had wide temperature tolerances, but only the tropical species we tested had more narrow ranges. These findings suggest that quantifying temperature tolerances may be used to predict which low-latitude species are most likely to shift in response to warming water and those that may be more sensitive to climate change in this region.

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Climate change affects the distribution of diversity across marine food webs

Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted for feeding guilds, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). Changing spatial patterns in predator-prey mass ratios and fish species size composition are also predicted for feeding guilds and across the fish assemblage. In combination, these changes could influence nutrient uptake and transformation, transfer efficiency and food web stability, and thus profoundly alter ecosystem structure and functioning.

Increased dispersal explains increasing local diversity with global biodiversity declines

The narrative of biodiversity decline in response to human impacts is overly simplistic because different aspects of biodiversity show different trajectories at different spatial scales. It is also debated whether human-caused biodiversity changes lead to subsequent, accelerating change (cascades) in ecological communities, or alternatively build increasingly robust community networks with decreasing extinction rates and reduced invasibility. Mechanistic approaches are needed that simultaneously reconcile different aspects of biodiversity change, and explore the robustness of communities to further change. We develop a trophically structured, mainland-archipelago metacommunity model of community assembly. Varying the parameters across model simulations shows that local alpha diversity (the number of species per island) and regional gamma diversity (the total number of species in the archipelago) depend on both the rate of extirpation per island and on the rate of dispersal between islands within the archipelago. In particular, local diversity increases with increased dispersal and heterogeneity between islands, but regional diversity declines because the islands become biotically similar and local one-island and few-island species are excluded (homogenisation, or reduced beta diversity). This mirrors changes observed empirically: real islands have gained species (increased local and island-scale community diversity) with increased human-assisted transfers of species, but global diversity has declined with the loss of endemic species. However, biological invasions may be self-limiting. High-dispersal, high local-diversity model communities become resistant to subsequent invasions, generating robust species-community networks unless dispersal is extremely high. A mixed-up world is likely to lose many species, but the resulting ecological communities may nonetheless be relatively robust.

Temperate species underfill their tropical thermal potentials on land

Understanding how temperature determines the distribution of life is necessary to assess species' sensitivities to contemporary climate change. Here, we test the importance of temperature in limiting the geographic ranges of ectotherms by comparing the temperatures and areas that species occupy to the temperatures and areas species could potentially occupy on the basis of their physiological thermal tolerances. We find that marine species across all latitudes and terrestrial species from the tropics occupy temperatures that closely match their thermal tolerances. However, terrestrial species from temperate and polar latitudes are absent from warm, thermally tolerable areas that they could potentially occupy beyond their equatorward range limits, indicating that extreme temperature is often not the factor limiting their distributions at lower latitudes. This matches predictions from the hypothesis that adaptation to cold environments that facilitates survival in temperate and polar regions is associated with a performance trade-off that reduces species' abilities to contend in the tropics, possibly due to biotic exclusion. Our findings predict more direct responses to climate warming of marine ranges and cool range edges of terrestrial species.

Aerobic metabolic scope mapping of an invasive fish species with global warming

Climate change will exacerbate the negative effects associated with the introduction of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invasive species in relation to environmental warming is therefore a fundamental task in ecology and conservation. The Baltic Sea is currently threatened by several local stressors and the highest increase in sea surface temperature of the world's large marine ecosystems. These new thermal conditions can further favour the spreading of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), a fish of Ponto-Caspian origin, currently well established in the southern and central parts of the Baltic Sea. This study aims to assess the thermal habitat suitability of the round goby in the Baltic Sea considering the past and future conditions. The study combines sightings records with known physiological models of aerobic performance and sea surface temperatures. Physiological models read these temperatures, at sighting times and locations, to determine their effects on the aerobic metabolic scope (AMS) of the fish, a measure of its energetic potential in relation to environmental conditions. The geographical mapping of the AMS was used to describe the changes in habitat suitability during the past 3 decades and for climatic predictions (until 2100) showing that the favourable thermal habitat in the Baltic Sea has increased during the past 32 years and will continue to do so in all the applied climate model predictions. Particularly, the predicted new thermal conditions do not cause any reduction in the AMS of round goby populations, while the wintertime cold ranges are likely expected to preserve substantial areas from invasion. The results of this research can guide future monitoring programs increasing the chance to detect this invader in novel areas.

Comparing Seamounts and Coral Reefs with eDNA and BRUVS Reveals Oases and Refuges on Shallow Seamounts

Seamounts are the least known ocean biome. Considered biodiversity hotspots, biomass oases, and refuges for megafauna, large gaps exist in their real diversity relative to other ecosystems like coral reefs. Using environmental DNA metabarcoding (eDNA) and baited video (BRUVS), we compared fish assemblages across five environments of different depths: coral reefs (15 m), shallow seamounts (50 m), continental slopes (150 m), intermediate seamounts (250 m), and deep seamounts (500 m). We modeled assemblages using 12 environmental variables and found depth to be the main driver of fish diversity and biomass, although other variables like human accessibility were important. Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) revealed a strong negative effect of depth on species richness, segregating coral reefs from deep-sea environments. Surprisingly, BRT showed a hump-shaped effect of depth on fish biomass, with significantly lower biomass on coral reefs than in shallowest deep-sea environments. Biomass of large predators like sharks was three times higher on shallow seamounts (50 m) than on coral reefs. The five studied environments showed quite distinct assemblages. However, species shared between coral reefs and deeper-sea environments were dominated by highly mobile large predators. Our results suggest that seamounts are no diversity hotspots for fish. However, we show that shallower seamounts form biomass oases and refuges for threatened megafauna, suggesting that priority should be given to their protection.

Species-specific traits affect bird species' susceptibility to global change

The current ecological crisis has risen extinction rates to similar levels of ancient mass extinctions. However, it seems to not be acting uniformly across all species but affecting species differentially. This suggests that species' susceptibility to the extinction process is mediated by specific traits. Since understanding this response mechanism at large scales will benefit conservation effort around the world, we used the IUCN global threat status and population trends of 8281 extant bird species as proxies of the extinction risk to identify the species-specific traits affecting their susceptibility to extinction within the biogeographic regions and at the global scale. Using linear mixed effect models and multinomial models, we related the global threat status and the population trends with the following traits: migratory strategy, habitat and diet specialization, body size, and generation length. According to our results and independently of the proxy used, more vulnerable species are sedentary and have larger body size, longer generation time, and higher degree of habitat specialization. These relationships apply globally and show little variation across biogeographic regions. We suggest that such concordant patterns might be caused either by a widespread occurrence of the same threats such as habitat modification or by a uniform capacity of some traits to reflect the impact of different local threats. Regardless of the cause of this pattern, our study identified the traits that affect species' response capability to the current ecological crisis. Conservation effort should focus on the species with trait values indicating the limited response capacity to overcome this crisis.

100 years of anthropogenic impact causes changes in freshwater functional biodiversity

Despite efforts from scientists and regulators, biodiversity is declining at an alarming rate. Unless we find transformative solutions to preserve biodiversity, future generations may not be able to enjoy nature's services. We have developed a conceptual framework that establishes the links between biodiversity dynamics and abiotic change through time and space using artificial intelligence. Here, we apply this framework to a freshwater ecosystem with a known history of human impact and study 100 years of community-level biodiversity, climate change and chemical pollution trends. We apply explainable network models with multimodal learning to community-level functional biodiversity measured with multilocus metabarcoding, to establish correlations with biocides and climate change records. We observed that the freshwater community assemblage and functionality changed over time without returning to its original state, even if the lake partially recovered in recent times. Insecticides and fungicides, combined with extreme temperature events and precipitation, explained up to 90% of the functional biodiversity changes. The community-level biodiversity approach used here reliably explained freshwater ecosystem shifts. These shifts were not observed when using traditional quality indices (e.g. Trophic Diatom Index). Our study advocates the use of high-throughput systemic approaches on long-term trends over species-focused ecological surveys to identify the environmental factors that cause loss of biodiversity and disrupt ecosystem functions.

Mechanistic modeling of climate effects on redistribution and population growth in a community of fish species

Understanding community responses to climate is critical for anticipating the future impacts of global change. However, despite increased research efforts in this field, models that explicitly include important biological mechanisms are lacking. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on species is complicated by the fact that the effects of climate variation may manifest at several points in the biological process. To this end, we extend a dynamic mechanistic model that combines population dynamics, such as species interactions, with species redistribution by allowing climate to affect both processes. We examine their relative contributions in an application to the changing biomass of a community of eight species in the Gulf of Maine using over 30 years of fisheries data from the Northeast Fishery Science Center. Our model suggests that the mechanisms driving biomass trends vary across space, time, and species. Phase space plots demonstrate that failing to account for the dynamic nature of the environmental and biologic system can yield theoretical estimates of population abundances that are not observed in empirical data. The stock assessments used by fisheries managers to set fishing targets and allocate quotas often ignore environmental effects. At the same time, research examining the effects of climate change on fish has largely focused on redistribution. Frameworks that combine multiple biological reactions to climate change are particularly necessary for marine researchers. This work is just one approach to modeling the complexity of natural systems and highlights the need to incorporate multiple and possibly interacting biological processes in future models.

Historical redlining is associated with increasing geographical disparities in bird biodiversity sampling in the United States

Historic segregation and inequality are critical to understanding modern environmental conditions. Race-based zoning policies, such as redlining in the United States during the 1930s, are associated with racial inequity and adverse multigenerational socioeconomic levels in income and education, and disparate environmental characteristics including tree canopy cover across urban neighbourhoods. Here we quantify the association between redlining and bird biodiversity sampling density and completeness-two critical metrics of biodiversity knowledge-across 195 cities in the United States. We show that historically redlined neighbourhoods remain the most undersampled urban areas for bird biodiversity today, potentially impacting conservation priorities and propagating urban environmental inequities. The disparity in sampling across redlined neighbourhood grades increased by 35.6% over the past 20 years. We identify specific urban areas in need of increased bird biodiversity sampling and discuss possible strategies for reducing uncertainty and increasing equity of sampling of biodiversity in urban areas. Our findings highlight how human behaviour and past social, economic and political conditions not just segregate our built environment but may also leave a lasting mark on the digital information we have about urban biodiversity.

Impact of Hermodice carunculata (Pallas, 1766) (Polychaeta: Amphinomidae) on artisanal fishery: A case study from the Mediterranean sea

Invasive species can cause severe economic damages, ecosystem alterations, and can even threat human health. In the global warming scenario, which can act as a driving force for the expansion of thermophilic species, we investigated for the first time the economic damage caused by the invasive bearded fireworm, Hermodice carunculata, to artisanal longline fishery in the Mediterranean Sea. We focused on bottom longline fishery targeting the highly prized white seabream Diplodus sargus, investigating catch composition of the fishing gear and Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) of species caught, with particular emphasis on the economic damage caused by the bearded fireworm, H. carunculata, in relation to water temperature. Our results clearly indicated direct and indirect economic damage to fishing activities practiced in the southeastern coast of Sicily (Ionian Sea). Type and extent of the damage caused by the invasive worm (H. carunculata) were discussed in relation to temporal scale and overall yields obtained by this traditional artisanal fishery, and some solutions are proposed. However, the actual situation requires special attention because it is expected to worsen in the context of the global warming future scenarios, such that further studies are urgently needed.

Assessing juvenile swordfish (Xiphias gladius) diet as an indicator of marine ecosystem changes in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

To preserve marine biodiversity, we need reliable early warning indicators that inform changes in marine ecosystems. As reliable samplers of mid-trophic level communities, studying the trophodynamics of large pelagic fish can contribute to monitoring these changes. Here, we combined stomach content and stable isotope analyses to reconstruct the diet of juvenile swordfish (Xiphias gladius) in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, in a time-lapse of almost a decade (2012 and 2020). Overall, our study showed that swordfish fed on a wide range of fish and cephalopod species from both pelagic and demersal habitats. A dietary shift towards increasing consumption of cephalopods and decreasing consumption of Gadiformes had been observed between 2012 and 2020. Stable isotope approaches revealed that gelatinous organisms were also important prey, particularly for smaller-sized swordfish. We underline the importance of combining multiple and complementary approaches to better reconstruct the diet of generalist species. Our findings highlight the generalist and opportunistic diet of Mediterranean swordfish, which makes them good candidates for monitoring changes in the ecosystem.

Ecotoxicological, ecophysiological, and mechanistic studies on zinc oxide (ZnO) toxicity in freshwater environment

The world has faced climate change that affects hydrology and thermal systems in the aquatic environment resulting in temperature changes, which directly affect the aquatic ecosystem. Elevated water temperature influences the physico-chemical properties of chemicals in freshwater ecosystems leading to disturbing living organisms. Owing to the industrial revolution, the mass production of zinc oxide (ZnO) has been led to contaminated environments, and therefore, the toxicological effects of ZnO become more concerning under climate change scenarios. A comprehensive understanding of its toxicity influenced by main factors driven by climate change is indispensable. This review summarized the detrimental effects of ZnO with a single ZnO exposure and combined it with key climate change-associated factors in many aspects (i.e., oxidative stress, energy reserves, behavior and life history traits). Moreover, this review tried to point out ZnO kinetic behavior and corresponding mechanisms which pose a problem of observed detrimental effects correlated with the alteration of elevated temperature.