Evidence synthesis for decision making 3: heterogeneity--subgroups, meta-regression, bias, and bias-adjustment

Health wearable devices for weight and BMI reduction in individuals with overweight/obesity and chronic comorbidities: systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the comparative effectiveness of different health wearable-based physical activity (PA) promotion intervention strategies against each other and control for reducing body weight and body mass index (BMI) in individuals with overweight/obesity and chronic comorbidities.

DESIGN

Systematic review and network meta-analysis (PROSPERO identifier: CRD42020158191).

DATA SOURCES

We performed two independent searches from December 2019 to September 2020 in PubMed, MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE and PsycINFO databases for articles published in English between 2007 and 2020.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Inclusion criteria were based on the PICOS framework. We included randomised controlled trials of health wearable-based interventions using two or more PA intervention arms/strategies and compared their effects on participants' body weight (kg) and BMI (kg/m2) with a control group. Data were analysed using a Bayesian network meta-analysis to directly and indirectly compare the effects of the six different intervention strategies (comparators). The six comparators were: (1) control group (ie, usual care, waitlist); (2) comparison group (ie, traditional, non-health wearable PA interventions); (3) commercial health wearable-only intervention (eg, Fitbit, Polar M400); (4) research grade health wearable-only intervention (ie, accelerometers or pedometers); (5) multicomponent commercial health wearable intervention (eg, Fitbit + nutrition counselling); and (6) multicomponent research grade health wearable intervention. The results were reported as standardised mean differences (SMDs) with associated 95% credible intervals (CrIs).

RESULTS

From 641 screened records, 31 studies were included. For body weight reduction in individuals with overweight/obesity and chronic comorbidities, accelerometer/pedometer-only (SMD -4.44, 95% CrI -8.94 to 0.07) and commercial health wearable-only (SMD -2.76, 95% CrI -4.80 to -0.81) intervention strategies were the most effective compared with the three other treatments and control. For BMI reduction, multicomponent accelerometer/pedometer (SMD -3.43, 95% CrI -4.94 to -2.09) and commercial health wearable-only (SMD -1.99, 95% CrI -4.95 to 0.96) intervention strategies were the most effective compared with the other four conditions.

CONCLUSION

Health wearable devices are effective intervention tools/strategies for reducing body weight and BMI in individuals with overweight/obesity and chronic comorbidities.

Comparative Efficacy and Safety of Lorlatinib and Alectinib for ALK-Rearrangement Positive Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer in Asian and Non-Asian Patients: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

Simple Summary

The treatment of anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangement-positive (ALK-p) advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) remains a challenge. We compared the safety and efficacy of lorlatinib and alectinib in patients with ALK-p ALK-inhibitor‒naïve advanced NSCLC (in overall participants and in the Asian and non-Asian subgroups). The results showed that in the overall participant group, the efficacy of lorlatinib and alectinib was not significantly different in terms of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Although in the Asian subgroup, PFS was not significantly different upon treatment with lorlatinib or alectinib, in the non-Asian subgroup, PFS was significantly better in response to lorlatinib than with alectinib. Grade 3 or higher adverse events in the overall participant group were significantly more frequent with lorlatinib than with alectinib. These results will provide valuable information that would enable the improvement of treatment strategies for ALK-p ALK-inhibitor‒naïve advanced NSCLC.

Abstract

To date, there have been no head-to-head randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing the safety and efficacy of lorlatinib and alectinib in anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangement-positive (ALK-p) ALK-inhibitor‒naïve advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We performed a network meta-analysis comparing six treatment arms (lorlatinib, brigatinib, alectinib, ceritinib, crizotinib, and platinum-based chemotherapy) in overall participants and in Asian and non-Asian subgroups. Primary endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and grade 3 or higher adverse events (G3-AEs). There were no significant differences between lorlatinib and alectinib in overall participants for both PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.742; 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.466–1.180) and OS (HR, 1.180; 95% CrI, 0.590–2.354). In the Asian subgroup, there were no significant differences in PFS between lorlatinib and alectinib (HR, 1.423; 95% CrI, 0.748–2.708); however, in the non-Asian subgroup, PFS was significantly better with lorlatinib than with alectinib (HR, 0.388; 95% CrI, 0.195–0.769). The incidence of G3-AEs in overall participants was significantly higher with lorlatinib than with alectinib (risk ratio, 1.918; 95% CrI, 1.486–2.475). These results provide valuable information regarding the safety and efficacy of lorlatinib in ALK-p ALK-inhibitor‒naïve advanced NSCLC. Larger head-to-head RCTs are needed to validate the study results.

Effects of Tranexamic Acid on Hemorrhage Control and Deep Venous Thrombosis Rate After Total Knee Arthroplasty: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) surgery has a lot of complications, especially hemorrhage, which can be controlled via tranexamic acid (TXA). The guidelines endorse the integration of TXA interventions in the management of TKA-induced complications. However, uncertainty surrounds the effects of different TXA therapies. This frequentist model network meta-analysis (NMA) aims to compare hemorrhage control and deep venous thrombosis (DVT) rate of different TXA therapies in TKA.

Methods: Articles were searched with the PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science from 1966 to October 2020. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing different TXA therapies, or with placebo in patients with TKA were included. Two investigators independently conducted article retrievals and data collection. The outcome was total blood loss and DVT rate. Effect size measures were mean differences (MDs), or odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We conducted a random-effects NMA using a frequentist approach to estimate relative effects for all comparisons and rank treatments according to the mean rank and surface under the cumulative ranking curve values. All analyses were performed in Stata software or R software. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42020202404.

Results: We identified 1 754 citations and included 81 studies with data for 9 987 patients with TKA. Overall, all TXA therapies were superior to placebo for total blood loss in TKA. Of all TXA therapies, M therapy (IV/IV infusion + oral TXA > 3g) was most effective for total blood loss (MD=−688.48, −1084.04–−328.93), followed by F therapy (IV TXA ≥ 15 mg/kg or 1 g three times). TXA therapies in this study are not associated with the increase of DVT risk.

Conclusions: TXA therapies in this study are effective and safe for the treatment of TKA-induced complications. M therapy (IV/IV infusion + oral TXA > 3 g) may be the most effective TXA therapy for hemorrhage control. TXA therapies in this study do not increase DVT risk. Considering hemorrhage control and DVT rate simultaneously, F therapy (IV TXA ≥ 15 mg/kg or 1 g three times) may be suggested to apply for TKA, and this study may provide a crucial clue to future TXA use.

School-based interventions to prevent anxiety, depression and conduct disorder in children and young people: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

Background

Schools in the UK increasingly have to respond to anxiety, depression and conduct disorder as key causes of morbidity in children and young people.

Objective

The objective was to assess the comparative effectiveness of educational setting-based interventions for the prevention of anxiety, depression and conduct disorder in children and young people.

Design

This study comprised a systematic review, a network meta-analysis and an economic evaluation.

Data sources

The databases MEDLINE, EMBASE™ (Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands), PsycInfo® (American Psychological Association, Washington, DC, USA) and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) were searched to 4 April 2018, and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) was searched on 22 May 2019 for economic evaluations. No language or date filters were applied.

Main outcomes

The main outcomes were post-intervention self-reported anxiety, depression or conduct disorder symptoms.

Review methods

Randomised/quasi-randomised trials of universal or targeted interventions for the prevention of anxiety, depression or conduct disorder in children and young people aged 4–18 years were included. Screening was conducted independently by two reviewers. Data extraction was conducted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Intervention- and component-level network meta-analyses were conducted in OpenBUGS. A review of the economic literature and a cost–consequence analysis were conducted.

Results

A total of 142 studies were included in the review, and 109 contributed to the network meta-analysis. Of the 109 studies, 57 were rated as having an unclear risk of bias for random sequence generation and allocation concealment. Heterogeneity was moderate. In universal secondary school settings, mindfulness/relaxation interventions [standardised mean difference (SMD) –0.65, 95% credible interval (CrI) –1.14 to –0.19] and cognitive–behavioural interventions (SMD –0.15, 95% CrI –0.34 to 0.04) may be effective for anxiety. Cognitive–behavioural interventions incorporating a psychoeducation component may be effective (SMD –0.30, 95% CrI –0.59 to –0.01) at preventing anxiety immediately post intervention. There was evidence that exercise was effective in preventing anxiety in targeted secondary school settings (SMD –0.47, 95% CrI –0.86 to –0.09). There was weak evidence that cognitive–behavioural interventions may prevent anxiety in universal (SMD –0.07, 95% CrI –0.23 to 0.05) and targeted (SMD –0.38, 95% CrI –0.84 to 0.07) primary school settings. There was weak evidence that cognitive–behavioural (SMD –0.04, 95% CrI –0.16 to 0.07) and cognitive–behavioural + interpersonal therapy (SMD –0.18, 95% CrI –0.46 to 0.08) may be effective in preventing depression in universal secondary school settings. Third-wave (SMD –0.35, 95% CrI –0.70 to 0.00) and cognitive–behavioural interventions (SMD –0.11, 95% CrI –0.28 to 0.05) incorporating a psychoeducation component may be effective at preventing depression immediately post intervention. There was no evidence of intervention effectiveness in targeted secondary, targeted primary or universal primary school settings post intervention. The results for university settings were unreliable because of inconsistency in the network meta-analysis. A narrative summary was reported for five conduct disorder prevention studies, all in primary school settings. None reported the primary outcome at the primary post-intervention time point. The economic evidence review reported heterogeneous findings from six studies. Taking the perspective of a single school budget and based on cognitive–behavioural therapy intervention costs in universal secondary school settings, the cost–consequence analysis estimated an intervention cost of £43 per student.

Limitations

The emphasis on disorder-specific prevention excluded broader mental health interventions and restricted the number of eligible conduct disorder prevention studies. Restricting the study to interventions delivered in the educational setting may have limited the number of eligible university-level interventions.

Conclusions

There was weak evidence of the effectiveness of school-based, disorder-specific prevention interventions, although effects were modest and the evidence not robust. Cognitive–behavioural therapy-based interventions may be more effective if they include a psychoeducation component.

Future work

Future trials for prevention of anxiety and depression should evaluate cognitive–behavioural interventions with and without a psychoeducation component, and include mindfulness/relaxation or exercise comparators, with sufficient follow-up. Cost implications must be adequately measured.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016048184.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 9, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Comparative effectiveness of guselkumab in psoriatic arthritis: results from systematic literature review and network meta-analysis

Objective

The efficacy of the novel interleukin (IL)-23p19 inhibitor guselkumab for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) has recently been demonstrated in two phase 3 trials (DISCOVER-1 & -2) but has not been evaluated vs other targeted therapies for PsA. The objective was to compare guselkumab to targeted therapies for PsA for safety and joint and skin efficacy through network meta-analysis (NMA).

Methods

A systematic literature review was conducted in January 2020 to identify randomized controlled trials. Bayesian NMAs were performed to compare treatments on American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20/50/70 response, mean change from baseline in van der Heijde-Sharp (vdH-S) score, Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI) 75/90/100 response, adverse events (AEs) and serious adverse events (SAEs).

Results

Twenty-six phase 3 studies evaluating 13 targeted therapies for PsA were included. For ACR 20 response, guselkumab 100 mg every 8 weeks (Q8W) was comparable to IL-17A inhibitors and subcutaneous tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors. Similar findings were observed for ACR 50 and 70. For vdH-S score, guselkumab Q8W was comparable to other agents except intravenous TNF therapies. Results for PASI 75 and PASI 90 response suggested guselkumab Q8W was better than most other agents. For PASI 100, guselkumab Q8W was comparable to other active agents. For AEs and SAEs, guselkumab Q8W ranked highly but comparative conclusions were uncertain. Similar results were observed for all outcomes for guselkumab 100 mg every four weeks.

Conclusions

In this NMA, guselkumab demonstrated favorable arthritis efficacy comparable to IL-17A and subcutaneous TNF inhibitors while offering better PASI response relative to many other treatments.

Comparative efficacy of lemborexant and other insomnia treatments: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Insomnia is a common disorder associated with a substantial burden of illness, particularly in older adults. OBJECTIVE: To compare the efficacy and safety of lemborexant with specified other insomnia treatments through a systematic literature review and network meta-analysis (NMA). METHODS: Medline and Embase were systematically searched from inception to February 2019 and updated with a targeted search of PubMed for pivotal trials in March 2021. Randomized controlled trials in adults with primary insomnia were included if they reported results following at least 1 week of treatment. Interventions of interest were specified as lemborexant, suvorexant, benzodiazepines, benzodiazepine receptor agonists (also called Z-drugs [zolpidem, eszopiclone, zaleplon, zopiclone]), trazodone, and ramelteon. Efficacy outcomes included wake after sleep onset (WASO), sleep efficiency (SE), latency to persistent sleep (LPS)/sleep onset latency (SOL), total sleep time (TST) and Insomnia Severity Index (ISI). Bayesian NMA were performed at predetermined time intervals approximating 4 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months. Safety outcomes included serious adverse events (SAEs), withdrawals due to adverse events (AEs), and specified AEs (dizziness, somnolence, and falls). Subgroup analysis was conducted in the older population. RESULTS: 45 studies were included in the NMA. At 4 weeks, lemborexant had the highest probability of being the best treatment for 3 of the 4 outcomes measured objectively by polysomnography-TST, LPS, and SE-and was ranked second to suvorexant on WASO. Eszopiclone was highly ranked for subjectively measured SOL and ISI at 4 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months. Lemborexant was rated more highly than suvorexant in subjective measures of WASO, TST, and SOL at 4 weeks (the differences were not statistically significant). No statistically significant interactions between treatment effect and older subpopulations were found, indicating that the treatment effect was similar in older and adult populations. The safety profile of lemborexant was broadly similar to the other treatments for SAEs and withdrawals due to AEs. A limitation is the age of some of the included studies (3 were published in 1990 or earlier). A further limitation is the lack of stratification of recommended doses. If the doses used in the study publications do not reflect doses used in clinical practice, this could potentially bias the results. CONCLUSIONS: Lemborexant was ranked highest of the treatments studied on 3 out of the 4 objectively measured insomnia efficacy outcomes, with a safety profile broadly similar to other insomnia treatments. DISCLOSURES: This work was funded by Eisai Inc., which was involved with all stages of the study and analysis. McElroy, O'Leary, and Adena are consultants with Datalytics Pty Ltd., which was paid by Eisai Inc. for conducting the literature review and analysis. They were not financially compensated for collaborative efforts on publication-related activities. Campbell, Tahami Monfared, and Meier are employed by Eisai Inc. This study was presented as a poster at AMCP Nexus Virtual, October 20-23, 2020 and at the AGS Virtual Annual Scientific Meeting 2021, May 13-15, 2021.

Comparative efficacy and safety of systemic therapies used in moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis: a systematic literature review and network meta-analysis

Given the lack of head-to-head studies of systemic therapies in moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis (AD), network meta-analyses (NMAs) can provide comparative efficacy and safety data to inform clinical decision-making. In this NMA, eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published before 24 October 2019 were identified by a systematic literature review. Short-term (12-16 weeks) efficacy (Investigator's Global Assessment [IGA] and Eczema Area and Severity Index [EASI] responses), patient-reported outcomes (PROs) and safety data from each trial were abstracted and analysed separately for monotherapy and combination therapy (systemic plus topical anti-inflammatory therapy). RCTs were analysed in fixed-effects and random-effects Bayesian NMA models. Overall, 19 phase 2 and phase 3 RCTs of abrocitinib, baricitinib, dupilumab, lebrikizumab, nemolizumab, tralokinumab and upadacitinib were included. In monotherapy RCTs, upadacitinib 30 mg once daily (QD) had the numerically highest efficacy (83.6% achieved ≥50% improvement in EASI [EASI-50 response]), followed by abrocitinib 200 mg QD (74.6%), upadacitinib 15 mg QD (70.5%), dupilumab 300 mg every 2 weeks (Q2W) (63.4%) and abrocitinib 100 mg QD (56.7%). Similar trends in EASI-75 and EASI-90 response were observed. In combination therapy RCTs, abrocitinib 200 mg QD had the highest EASI-50 (86.6%), followed by dupilumab 300 mg Q2W (82.4%) and abrocitinib 100 mg QD (79.7%). Similar findings were observed for IGA response and PROs. In monotherapy and combination therapy RCTs, the probability of treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) was higher among all active treatments than with placebo (except for dupilumab 300 mg Q2W [odds ratio (OR), 0.96; 95% credible interval (CrI), 0.45-2.18] and abrocitinib 100 mg QD [OR, 0.95; 95% CrI, 0.35-2.66] in combination therapy RCTs), although active treatments did not significantly differ from one another. Abrocitinib, dupilumab and upadacitinib were consistently the most effective systemic therapies in adult and adolescent patients with AD, with no significant TEAE differences in short-term RCTs.

Selection of optimal first-line immuno-related therapy based on specific pathological characteristics for patients with advanced driver-gene wild-type non-small cell lung cancer: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

Background

Although immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have improved survival for advanced wild-type non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), a lack of direct comparisons of various first-line treatments is clouding clinical decision-making. A network meta-analysis was conducted to compare current first-line treatments and identify the optimal regimen for patients with specific characteristics.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Clinical Trials databases were searched from inception to 31 July 2020. Phase II/III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing first-line treatments including chemotherapy, anti-angiogenesis, ICIs, and their combinations for previously untreated stage IIIB/IV or recurrent driver-gene wild-type NSCLC patients were included.

Results

Twenty-six RCTs were identified and included, involving 16,977 patients and a total of 18 regimens. ICI-containing treatments led to significantly prolonged overall survival (OS) compared with ICI-free treatments (0.82, 0.72-0.93). ICI plus chemotherapy had significantly longer progression-free survival (PFS; 0.70, 0.58-0.86) and marginally longer OS (0.90, 0.79-1.05) compared with ICIs alone. Ranking highest in the Bayesian network meta-analysis, pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy, nivolumab plus ipilimumab and chemotherapy, had significantly superior OS than standard chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab treatments. Pembrolizumab-chemotherapy ranked first for OS, 1-year OS rate, and subgroups of non-squamous, PD-L1 ⩾1%, non-smoking, and liver metastasis; while nivolumab-ipilimumab-chemotherapy for squamous, PD-L1 <1%, brain metastasis NSCLC. Furthermore, the ICI-containing bevacizumab-free treatments, such as pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy, nivolumab and ipilimumab with or without chemotherapy, were not significantly different from atezolizumab plus chemotherapy and bevacizumab in OS.

Conclusions

A combination of ICIs with chemotherapy, rather than double ICIs, is the best first-line treatment for advanced wild-type NSCLC, with synergy that leads to better long-term survival. The panoramic view of the relative efficacy of any two regimens with different rankings provides strong evidence for selecting optimal first-line ICIs according to patients' clinical characteristics.

Bayesian network meta-regression hierarchical models using heavy-tailed multivariate random effects with covariate-dependent variances

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is gaining popularity in evidence synthesis and network meta-regression allows us to incorporate potentially important covariates into network meta-analysis. In this article, we propose a Bayesian network meta-regression hierarchical model and assume a general multivariate t distribution for the random treatment effects. The multivariate t distribution is desired for heavy-tailed random effects and converges to the multivariate normal distribution when the degrees of freedom go to infinity. Moreover, in NMA, some treatments are compared only in a single study. To overcome such sparsity, we propose a log-linear regression model for the variances of the random effects and incorporate aggregate covariates into modeling the variance components. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution via the collapsed Gibbs technique. We further use the deviance information criterion and the logarithm of the pseudo-marginal likelihood for model comparison. A simulation study is conducted and a detailed analysis from our motivating case study is carried out to further demonstrate the proposed methodology.

Comparative Efficacy and Relative Ranking of Biologics and Oral Therapies for Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis: A Network Meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The clinical benefits of biologic and oral treatments for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis are well-established, but efficacy outcomes can vary across therapies. Comparative efficacy analysis can be highly informative in clinical settings with multiple therapeutic options. This study assessed the short-term and long-term comparative efficacy of biologic and oral treatments for moderate-to-severe psoriasis.

METHODS

A systematic literature review identified phase 2/3/4 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) through to 1 July 2020 for Food and Drug Administration- or European Medicines Agency-licensed treatments for moderate-to-severe psoriasis. Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) 75/90/100 response rates at the end of the primary response (short-term: 10-16 weeks from baseline) and maintenance periods (long-term: 48-52 weeks from baseline) were estimated using Bayesian network meta-analysis. Surfaces under the cumulative ranking curves (SUCRA) were estimated to present the relative ranking of treatments.

RESULTS

In the short term (N = 71 RCTs), the PASI 90 response rates were highest for ixekizumab (72.9%, SUCRA 0.951), risankizumab (72.5%, 0.940), and brodalumab (72.0%, 0.930), which were significantly higher than those for guselkumab (65.0%, 0.795), secukinumab (65.0%, 0.794), infliximab (56.8%, 0.702), certolizumab (400 mg: 49.6%, 0.607; 200 mg: 42.2%, 0.389), ustekinumab (90 mg: 47.9%, 0.568; weight-based: 45.7%, 0.505; 45 mg: 44.6%, 0.460), adalimumab (43.0%, 0.410), tildrakizumab (200 mg: 39.7%, 0.327; 100 mg: 37.2%, 0.268), etanercept (18.0%, 0.171), apremilast (12.4%, 0.090), and dimethyl fumarate (12.2%, 0.092). The PASI 100 response rates were highest for ixekizumab (41.4%), risankizumab (40.8%), and brodalumab (40.3%). In the long term (N = 11 RCTs), the PASI 90 rate was highest for risankizumab (85.3%, SUCRA: 0.998), which were significantly higher than those for brodalumab (78.8%, 0.786), guselkumab (78.1%, 0.760), ixekizumab (72.1%, 0.577), secukinumab (67.0%, 0.450), ustekinumab (weight-based: 55.0%, 0.252), adalimumab (51.6%, 0.176), and etanercept (37.9%, 0.001). Risankizumab had the highest PASI 100 response rate (65.4%), followed by brodalumab (55.7%) and guselkumab (54.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

Ixekizumab, risankizumab, and brodalumab had the highest short-term efficacy, and risankizumab had the highest long-term efficacy.

Comparing the use of aggregate data and various methods of integrating individual patient data to network meta-analysis and its application to first-line ART

BACKGROUND

The 2018 World Health Organization HIV guidelines were based on the results of a network meta-analysis (NMA) of published trials. This study employed individual patient-level data (IPD) and aggregate data (AgD) and meta-regression methods to assess the evidence supporting the WHO recommendations and whether they needed any refinements.

METHODS

Access to IPD from three trials was granted through ClinicalStudyDataRequest.com (CSDR). Seven modelling approaches were applied and compared: 1) Unadjusted AgD network meta-analysis (NMA) - the original analysis; 2) AgD-NMA with meta-regression; 3) Two-stage IPD-AgD NMA; 4) Unadjusted one-stage IPD-AgD NMA; 5) One-stage IPD-AgD NMA with meta-regression (one-stage approach); 6) Two-stage IPD-AgD NMA with empirical-priors (empirical-priors approach); 7) Hierarchical meta-regression IPD-AgD NMA (HMR approach). The first two were the models used previously. Models were compared with respect to effect estimates, changes in the effect estimates, coefficient estimates, DIC and model fit, rankings and between-study heterogeneity.

RESULTS

IPD were available for 2160 patients, representing 6.5% of the evidence base and 3 of 24 edges. The aspect of the model affected by the choice of modeling appeared to differ across outcomes. HMR consistently generated larger intervals, often with credible intervals (CrI) containing the null value. Discontinuations due to adverse events and viral suppression at 96 weeks were the only two outcomes for which the unadjusted AgD NMA would not be selected. For the first, the selected model shifted the principal comparison of interest from an odds ratio of 0.28 (95% CrI: 10.17, 0.44) to 0.37 (95% CrI: 0.23, 0.58). Throughout all outcomes, the regression estimates differed substantially between AgD and IPD methods, with the latter being more often larger in magnitude and statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the use of IPD often impacted the coefficient estimates, but not sufficiently as to necessitate altering the final recommendations of the 2018 WHO Guidelines. Future work should examine the features of a network where adjustments will have an impact, such as how much IPD is required in a given size of network.

Comparison of the prognosis of four different treatment strategies for acute left malignant colonic obstruction: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

Background

There is controversy regarding the efficacy of different treatment strategies for acute left malignant colonic obstruction. This study investigated the 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of several treatment strategies for acute left malignant colonic obstruction.

Methods

We searched for articles published in PubMed, Embase (Ovid), MEDLINE (Ovid), Web of Science, and Cochrane Library between January 1, 2000, and July 1, 2020. We screened out the literature comparing different treatment strategies. Evaluate the primary and secondary outcomes of different treatment strategies. The network meta-analysis summarizes the hazard ratio, odds ratio, mean difference, and its 95% confidence interval.

Results

The network meta-analysis involved 48 articles, including 8 (randomized controlled trials) RCTs and 40 non-RCTs. Primary outcomes: the 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of the CS-BTS strategy and the DS-BTS strategy were significantly better than those of the ES strategy, and the 5-year OS of the DS-BTS strategy was significantly better than that of CS-BTS. The long-term survival of TCT-BTS was not significantly different from those of CS-BTS and ES. Secondary outcomes: compared with emergency resection (ER) strategies, colonic stent-bridge to surgery (CS-BTS) and transanal colorectal tube-bridge to surgery (TCT-BTS) strategies can significantly increase the primary anastomosis rate, CS-BTS and decompressing stoma-bridge to surgery (DS-BTS) strategies can significantly reduce mortality, and CS-BTS strategies can significantly reduce the permanent stoma rate. The hospital stay of DS-BTS is significantly longer than that of other strategies. There was no significant difference in the anastomotic leakage levels of several treatment strategies.

Conclusion

Comprehensive literature research, we find that CS-BTS and DS-BTS strategies can bring better 5-year OS and DFS than ER. DS-BTS strategies have a better 5-year OS than CS-BTS strategies. Without considering the hospital stays, DS-BTS strategy is the best choice.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13017-021-00355-2.

Comparative efficacy of various preventive methods for exposure keratopathy among critically ill patients: A network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

There is a wide variety of preventive methods currently available for the treatment of exposure keratopathy. Because of a lack of evidence from head-to-head randomized controlled trials (RCTs), the relative effects of these preventive methods in exposure keratopathy patients remain unclear. The purpose of our study is to carry out a network meta-analysis comparing the efficacy of different methods for the prevention of exposure keratopathy and rank these nursing methods for practical consideration.

METHODS

A literature search was performed of the MEDLINE (PubMed), EMBASE, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure Library (CNKI), China Science and Technology Journal Database (Weipu), WanFang Database and China Biology Medicine disc. Two authors independently extracted data from each included RCTs according to a predesigned Excel spreadsheet and assessed the methodological quality of included RCTs using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Data was analyzed using the R (V.3.6.2) and the Stata (V.15.0).

RESULTS

21 RCTs involving 2022 patients and evaluating 11 preventive methods were included. Rankings based on posterior probabilities revealed that artificial tear ointment might be the best way to prevent exposure keratopathy (35%), polyethylene covers might be the second-best (31%), swimming goggles might be the third-best (21%), foam dressing might be the fourth-best (18%).

CONCLUSIONS

This network meta-analysis indicated that artificial tear ointment, polyethylene covers, swimming goggles and foam dressing might be selected for the prevention of exposure keratopathy in intensive care unit patients, which is important in future research. Although evidence is scant, more attention should be paid to head-to-head comparisons of the most commonly used prevention methods in this field.

Comparative Efficacy and Safety of Immunotherapeutic Regimens with PD-1/PD-L1 Inhibitors for Previously Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

Improving therapeutic strategies for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) remains a challenge. To date, no reports have directly compared the efficacy and safety of immune checkpoint inhibitors plus platinum–etoposide (ICIs+EP) with platinum–irinotecan (IP) or directly compared different ICIs+EP for previously untreated ES-SCLC. This study used a Bayesian approach for network meta-analysis to compare efficacy and safety between ICIs+EP and IP and between each pair of three ICIs+EP. The six treatment arms were: pembrolizumab plus platinum–etoposide (Pem+EP), durvalumab plus platinum–etoposide (Dur+EP), atezolizumab plus platinum–etoposide (Atz+EP), platinum–amrubicin (AP), IP, and platinum–etoposide (EP). No significant differences in overall survival were observed between ICIs+EP and IP and between each pair of three ICIs+EP. The incidence of ≥grade 3 adverse events (G3-AEs) was significantly higher in ICIs+EP than IP, whereas no significant difference was found in G3-AEs between each pair of three ICIs+EP. The incidence of ≥grade 3 neutropenia and thrombocytopenia was significantly higher in ICIs+EP than IP, whereas the incidence of ≥grade 3 diarrhea was significantly lower in ICIs+EP than IP. These findings will help clinicians better select treatment strategies for ES-SCLC.

On weakly informative prior distributions for the heterogeneity parameter in Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis

The normal-normal hierarchical model (NNHM) constitutes a simple and widely used framework for meta-analysis. In the common case of only few studies contributing to the meta-analysis, standard approaches to inference tend to perform poorly, and Bayesian meta-analysis has been suggested as a potential solution. The Bayesian approach, however, requires the sensible specification of prior distributions. While noninformative priors are commonly used for the overall mean effect, the use of weakly informative priors has been suggested for the heterogeneity parameter, in particular in the setting of (very) few studies. To date, however, a consensus on how to generally specify a weakly informative heterogeneity prior is lacking. Here we investigate the problem more closely and provide some guidance on prior specification.

Cost-Effectiveness of Mirogabalin for the Treatment of Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathic Pain in Taiwan

OBJECTIVES

To assess the cost-effectiveness of 30 mg of mirogabalin versus no treatment or 300 mg of pregabalin in patients with diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain (DPNP) from a third-party perspective in Taiwan.

METHODS

A Markov model, developed with cycles of 2-week and a 1-year timeframes, consisted of 3 health states: mild, moderate, and severe pain. Average daily pain score (ADPS) was assessed at the end of each 2-week cycle. All patients entered the model in moderate (4 ≤ ADPS < 7) or severe (7 ≤ ADPS ≤ 10) pain health states. At the end of each cycle, patients remained in their assigned health state or transitioned to a different health state according to their pain score change. Efficacy data were informed by the pivotal phase III clinical trial (J303, NCT02318706) or by a network meta-analysis. Utility values were obtained from published literature, and resource use and cost data from Taiwanese clinical experts and Taiwan National Health Insurance Administration. One-way sensitivity, scenario, and probabilistic analyses were conducted to test the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

A head-to-head analysis demonstrated that 30 mg of mirogabalin is a cost-effective treatment option versus placebo for DPNP. The base-case deterministic analysis estimated quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gains of 0.02 at an incremental cost of 9697 New Taiwan dollars (NT$) (equal to $323) versus placebo (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER]: 489 310 NT$/QALY [$15 860/QALY]). Mirogabalin was also cost-effective compared with 300 mg of pregabalin (ICER: 18 476 NT$/QALY [$600/QALY]). Sensitivity and scenario analyses results confirmed the robustness.

CONCLUSION

Economic analysis suggests that mirogabalin 30 mg, a potent and selective α2δ ligand, is a cost-effective treatment option for DPNP in Taiwan, with an ICER below the willingness-to-pay threshold.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Anterior Cervical Corpectomy with Fusion, Laminoplasty, and Laminectomy and Instrumented Fusion for Ossification of the Posterior Longitudinal Ligament: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the comparative effectiveness and safety of anterior cervical corpectomy with fusion (ACCF), laminoplasty (LP), and laminectomy and instrumented fusion (LF) in the treatment of ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL).

METHODS

Embase, Pubmed, and Cochrane library were searched from their date of inception to June 13, 2020. Relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cohort studies comparing different procedures among ACCF, LP, and LF were identified, data were extracted to perform a network meta-analysis (NMA). The outcomes were the Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) score and complications.

RESULTS

We deemed 14 trials eligible, including 877 patients. In NMA, ACCF showed a significant improvement of JOA score compared with LP [MD= -0.89, 95% CI (-1.73, -0.18)], but no significant difference was found when compared LF with ACCF or LP. No significant differences in complications were found when compared LF with LP or ACCF, while ACCF showed significantly higher in complications than LP [OR = 1.99, 95% CI (1.10, 3.35)]. The surface under the cumulative ranking curves (SUCRA) showed that the rank of JOA score improvement is as follows: ACCF (82.5%), LF (79.5%), and LP (2.3%). And the rank of complication rate is as follows: LF (65.8%), ACCF (68.4%), and LP (2.1%).

LIMITATION

The biggest limitation was that none of the included studies were RCTs.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the higher probability of complications than LP, ACCF was the more recommended procedure for its highest ranking spectrums of JOA score improvement to treat the OPLL.

When does the use of individual patient data in network meta-analysis make a difference? A simulation study

BACKGROUND

The use of individual patient data (IPD) in network meta-analyses (NMA) is rapidly growing. This study aimed to determine, through simulations, the impact of select factors on the validity and precision of NMA estimates when combining IPD and aggregate data (AgD) relative to using AgD only.

METHODS

Three analysis strategies were compared via simulations: 1) AgD NMA without adjustments (AgD-NMA); 2) AgD NMA with meta-regression (AgD-NMA-MR); and 3) IPD-AgD NMA with meta-regression (IPD-NMA). We compared 108 parameter permutations: number of network nodes (3, 5 or 10); proportion of treatment comparisons informed by IPD (low, medium or high); equal size trials (2-armed with 200 patients per arm) or larger IPD trials (500 patients per arm); sparse or well-populated networks; and type of effect-modification (none, constant across treatment comparisons, or exchangeable). Data were generated over 200 simulations for each combination of parameters, each using linear regression with Normal distributions. To assess model performance and estimate validity, the mean squared error (MSE) and bias of treatment-effect and covariate estimates were collected. Standard errors (SE) and percentiles were used to compare estimate precision.

RESULTS

Overall, IPD-NMA performed best in terms of validity and precision. The median MSE was lower in the IPD-NMA in 88 of 108 scenarios (similar results otherwise). On average, the IPD-NMA median MSE was 0.54 times the median using AgD-NMA-MR. Similarly, the SEs of the IPD-NMA treatment-effect estimates were 1/5 the size of AgD-NMA-MR SEs. The magnitude of superior validity and precision of using IPD-NMA varied across scenarios and was associated with the amount of IPD. Using IPD in small or sparse networks consistently led to improved validity and precision; however, in large/dense networks IPD tended to have negligible impact if too few IPD were included. Similar results also apply to the meta-regression coefficient estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our simulation study suggests that the use of IPD in NMA will considerably improve the validity and precision of estimates of treatment effect and regression coefficients in the most NMA IPD data-scenarios. However, IPD may not add meaningful validity and precision to NMAs of large and dense treatment networks when negligible IPD are used.

Does surfactant nebulization prevent early intubation in preterm infants? A protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) is the most common cause of respiratory failure in preterm infants. Treatment consists of respiratory support and exogenous surfactant administration. Commonly, surfactant is administered intratracheally. However, this requires airway instrumentation and subsequent fluid instillation which may be harmful. Surfactant nebulization (SN) may offer a safe and effective alternative for surfactant administration, but the clinical efficacy is not yet established. Thus, this systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials will summarize the available evidence to determine the effectiveness and safety of SN for the prevention of intubation and subsequent mechanical ventilation at 72 h after birth.

METHODS

A systematic literature search in Medline, Embase, and The Cochrane Library will be performed, and all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs from published articles, presentations, and trial registries will be included in this meta-analysis. Titles and abstracts of all records identified in the search will be screened by two reviewers independently. Data on preterm infants (≤ 37 weeks) receiving nebulized surfactant in the first 72 h after birth for the treatment or prevention of RDS will be evaluated. Primary outcome is the intubation rate by 72 h after birth, and secondary outcomes include peridosing safety effects as well as major neonatal morbidities. Risk of bias will be assessed using the revised Cochrane ROB tool, and subgroup analyses will be performed to evaluate potential confounding factors. Publication bias will be assessed by examining a funnel plot. The meta-analysis will be performed using a fixed-effects model.

DISCUSSION

This review will provide an evidence-based tool for information about surfactant nebulization, illustrating the current knowledge and hopefully revealing potential novel avenues for researchers and clinicians alike.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This review is registered with the publicly available resource PROSPERO ( CRD42020175625 ).

Effects of Anti-Diabetic Drugs on Fracture Risk: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

Available data on the effects of anti-diabetic drugs on fracture risk are contradictory. Therefore, our study aimed to analyze all available data on the effects of anti-diabetic drugs on fracture risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients.

METHODS

Embase, Medline, ClinicalTrials.gov, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched for relevant trials. All data analyses were performed with STATA (12.0) and R language (3.6.0). Risk ratio (RR) with its 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated by combining data for the fracture effects of anti-diabetic drugs, including sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists, meglitinides, α-glucosidase inhibitors, thiazolidinediones, biguanides, insulin, and sulfonylureas.

RESULTS

One hundred seventeen eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with 221,364 participants were included in this study. Compared with placebo, trelagliptin (RR 3.51; 1.58-13.70) increased the risk of fracture, whereas albiglutide (RR 0.29; 0.04-0.93) and voglibose (RR 0.03; 0-0.11) decreased the risk of fracture. Other medications were comparable in terms of their effects on fracture risk, and no statistical significance was observed. In terms of fractures, voglibose (0.01%) may be the safest option, and trelagliptin (13.64%) may be the worst. Sensitivity analysis results were consistent with those of the main analysis. No statistically significant differences were observed in the regression coefficients of age (1.03; 0.32-2.1), follow-up duration (0.79; 0.27-1.64), and sex distribution (0.63; 0.15-1.56).

CONCLUSIONS

We found varied results on the association between the use of anti-diabetic drugs and fracture risk. Specifically, trelagliptin raised the risk of fracture, whereas voglibose and albiglutide showed benefit with statistical difference. Other drugs were comparable in terms of their effects on fracture risk. Some drugs (omarigliptin, sitagliptin, vildagliptin, saxagliptin, empagliflozin, ertugliflozin, rosiglitazone, pioglitazone, and nateglinide) may increase the risk of fracture, while others (such as dulaglutide, exenatide, liraglutide, semaglutide, lixisenatide, linagliptin, alogliptin, canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, glipizide, gliclazide, glibenclamide, glimepiride, metformin, and insulin) may show benefits. The risk of fracture was independent of age, sex distribution, and the duration of exposure to anti-diabetic drugs. When developing individualized treatment strategies, the clinical efficacy of anti-diabetic drugs must be weighed against their benefits and risks brought about by individual differences of patients.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This Systematic Review was prospectively registered on the PROSPERO (https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, registration number CRD42020189464).

Comparative Efficacy and Safety of Anti-PD-1/PD-L1 Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors for Refractory or Relapsed Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer-A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

The efficacy and safety of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in refractory or relapsed advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) have not yet been compared with those of ramucirumab (Ram) plus docetaxel (Doc). Furthermore, comprehensive comparisons between ICIs have not been conducted to date. In the current study, a Bayesian network meta-analysis of related phase III clinical trials was performed to compare the efficacy and safety of Ram+Doc, Niv, Atz, and Doc treatments in patient groups lacking the PD-L1 constraint. Surface under the cumulative ranking area (SUCRA) revealed that the overall survival (OS) of patients treated with Niv was the highest, followed by Atz, Ram+Doc, and Doc. Regarding grades 3-5 treatment-related adverse events (G3-5AEs), the use of Niv was ranked the safest, followed by Atz, Doc, and Ram+Doc. Significant differences in OS were observed between Niv and Ram+Doc, while significant differences in G3-5AEs were observed between Ram+Doc and Niv or Atz. In the PD-L1 positive (≥1%) patient subgroup, Pem (10 mg/kg) ranked the highest in efficacy for OS, followed by Niv, Pem (2 mg/kg), Atz, and Doc. These findings may expectedly provide oncologists with useful insights into therapeutic selection for refractory or relapsed advanced NSCLC.

Comparative Efficacy of Pharmacological and Nonpharmacological Interventions for Acne Vulgaris: A Network Meta-Analysis

Acne has several effects on physical symptoms, but the main impacts are on the quality of life, which can be improved by treatment. There are several acne treatments but less evidence comparing their relative efficacy. Thus, we assessed the comparative efficacy of pharmacological and nonpharmacological interventions for acne. We searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from inception to April 2019, to include randomized controlled trials for acne that compared topical antibiotics (TA), benzoyl peroxide (BPO), topical retinoids (TR), oral antibiotics (OA), lasers, light devices including LED device (LED), photodynamic therapy (PDT), and intense pulsed light, chemical peels (CP), miscellaneous therapies or complementary and alternative medicine (MTCAM), or their combinations. We performed Bayesian network meta-analysis with random effects for all treatments compared with placebo and each other. Mean differences (MDs) of lesions count and risk ratios of adverse events with their 95% credible intervals (CrIs) were calculated, and all interventions were ranked by the Surface Under the Cumulative Ranking (SUCRA) values. Additional frequentist additive network meta-analysis was performed to detect the robustness of results and potential interaction effects. Sensitivity analyses were carried out with different priors, and metaregression was to adjust for nine potential effect modifiers. In the result, seventy-three randomized controlled trials (27,745 patients with mild to moderate acne), comparing 30 grouped intervention categories, were included with low to moderate risk of bias. For adverse effects, OA had more risk in combination treatment with others. For noninflammatory lesions reduction, seventeen interventions had significant differences comparing with placebo and three interventions (TR+BPO: MD = −21.89, 95%CrI [−28.97, −14.76]; TR+BPO+MTCAM: −22.48 [−34.13, −10.70]; TA+BPO+CP: −20.63 [−33.97, −7.13]) were superior to others with 94, 94, and 91% SUCRA values, respectively. For inflammatory lesions reduction, nineteen interventions were significantly better than placebo, and three interventions (TR+BPO: MD = −12.13, 95%CrI [−18.41, −5.80]; TR+BPO+MTCAM: −13.21 [−.39, −3.04]; LED: −11.30 [−18.34, −4.42]) were superior to others (SUCRA: 81, 81, and 77%, respectively). In summary of noninflammatory and inflammatory lesions results, TR+BPO and TA+BPO were the best options compared to others. The frequentist model showed similar results as above. In summary, current evidence supports the suggestion that TR+BPO and TA+BPO are the best options for mild to moderate acne. LED is another option for inflammatory lesions when drug resistance occurs. All the combinations involved with OA showed more risk of adverse events than others. However, the evidence of this study should be cautiously used due to the limitations.

Comparison of Biologics and Oral Treatments for Plaque Psoriasis: A Meta-analysis

Importance

The clinical benefits of novel treatments for moderate to severe psoriasis are well established, but wide variations exist in patient response across different therapies. In the absence of head-to-head randomized trials, meta-analyses synthesizing data from multiple studies are needed to assess comparative efficacy among psoriasis treatments.

Objective

To estimate the relative short-term and long-term efficacy of biologics and oral agents for the treatment of moderate to severe psoriasis.

Data Sources

A systematic literature review was conducted on December 4, 2017, and updated on September 17, 2018. The Embase, MEDLINE, and Cochrane Central Register databases were included.

Study Selection

Phase 2, 3, or 4 randomized clinical trials of treatments licensed by the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency for adults with moderate to severe psoriasis with data on Psoriasis Area and Severity Index assessment of 75%, 90%, and 100% reductions (PASI 75, 90, and 100) at 10 to 16 weeks (short-term efficacy) or 44 to 60 weeks (long-term efficacy) from baseline.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Data were extracted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis guidelines. A bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted to estimate short-term PASI response rates; to account for variation across trials, an ordinal model that adjusted for reference arm response was implemented. The long-term PASI rates were estimated via a traditional meta-analysis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

PASI 75, 90, and 100 response rates at 10 to 16 weeks and 44 to 60 weeks from baseline.

Results

Sixty trials meeting all inclusion criteria were included. At weeks 10 to 16, the highest PASI 90 rates were seen with risankizumab-rzaa (71.6%; 95% credible interval [CrI], 67.5%-75.4%), brodalumab (70.8%; 95% CrI, 66.8%-74.6%), ixekizumab (70.6%; 95% CrI, 66.8%-74.6%), and guselkumab (67.3%; 62.5%-71.9%). At weeks 44 to 60, the treatments with the highest PASI 90 rates were risankizumab-rzaa (79.4%, 95% CI, 75.5%-82.9%), guselkumab (76.5%; 95% CI, 72.1%-80.5%), brodalumab (74.0%; 95% CI, 69.3%-78.1%), and ixekizumab (73.9%; 95% CI, 69.9%-77.5%). Findings were consistent for short-term and long-term PASI 75 and 100 responses.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study provides an assessment of the comparative efficacy among treatments for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. The meta-analysis suggests that brodalumab, guselkumab, ixekizumab, and risankizumab-rzaa were associated with the highest PASI response rates in both short-term and long-term therapy.

Comparative Efficacy of Graft Options in Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

Purpose

To evaluate the effectiveness of various graft options for anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction using network meta-analysis.

Methods

A medical literature search was conducted of PubMed, the Cochrane Library, Embase, SCOPUS, and Web of Science from their inception through March 1, 2019. The outcomes, including International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) form, Lachman test, Lysholm score, Pivot shift test, and Tegner score, were evaluated among graft options. Data extraction was carried out according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, and a network meta-analysis was performed using STATA 14.0.

Results

A total of 45 trials with 3992 patients were included. The forest plots revealed no significant differences in IKDC, Lysholm, or Tegner score among the grafts. In Lachman score, a significant difference was found in the comparisons of hamstring tendon allograft (HT-AL) versus patellar tendon autograft (PT-AU) and HT-AL versus hamstring tendon autograft (HT-AU). In pivot shift test, PT-AU was superior to all the other grafts, and quadriceps tendon autograft (QT-AU) was superior to HT-AL and artificial ligament (Art-L) in the number of cases with negative results. According to surface under the cumulative ranking area (SUCRA), PT-AU had the highest probability to be the best intervention in Lachman test and Tegner score; tibialis anterior tendon allograft (TA-AL) in IKDC and Lysholm score; and QT-AU in pivot shift test. Based on the cluster analysis of SUCRA, PT-AU was considered the most appropriate intervention by IKDC and Lachman test.

Conclusion

This study suggests that PT-AU may be the most appropriate graft for ACL reconstruction according to IKDC and Lachman test results.

Level of Evidence

Level I, network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Retroperitoneoscopic Standard or Hand-Assisted Versus Laparoscopic Standard or Hand-Assisted Donor Nephrectomy: A Systematic Review and the First Network Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

At the present four minimally invasive procedures namely retroperitoneoscopic (RPDN), laparoscopic (LPDN), hand-assisted retroperitoneoscopic (HARDN) and hand-assisted laparoscopic donor nephrectomy (HALDN) are used to perform donor nephrectomies. The current evidence based on retrospective studies and on pairwise only meta-analyses is inconclusive. Up to authors' best knowledge there is no so far network meta-analysis to compare all the above-mentioned procedures. Therefore, a network meta-analysis was conducted to compare the feasibility, safety and reproducibility of the four donor nephrectomies procedures.

METHODS

Google Scholar, EMBASE, PubMed, and Cochrane library were used for a systematic literature search. Both updated pairwise and network meta-analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Compared to LPDN there was evidence of significantly more right kidneys retrieved with RPDN; nonsignificant differences demonstrated both with HALDN and HARDN compared to LPDN. There was evidence that the operative time was significantly shorter by 77 min in RPDN compared to LPDN; on the other hand, HARDN and HALDN did not demonstrate significant differences when compared to LPDN.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study demonstrates that each approach can be applied safely in adequately selected patients. Moreover, retroperitoneoscopic is reliable, safe and easily reproducible alternative of LPDN for both left and right kidneys.

Combining Correlated Outcomes and Surrogate Endpoints in a Network Meta-Analysis of Colorectal Cancer Treatments

This study aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of systemic therapies in the treatment of unresectable advanced or metastatic colorectal cancer. Predicted hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% credible intervals (CrIs) for overall survival (OS) were calculated from the odds ratio (OR) for the overall response rate and/or HR for progression-free survival using multivariate random effects (MVRE) models. We performed a network meta-analysis (NMA) of 49 articles to compare the efficacy and safety of FOLFOX/FOLFIRI±bevacizumab (Bmab)/cetuximab (Cmab)/panitumumab (Pmab), and FOLFOXIRI/CAPEOX±Bmab. The NMA showed significant OS improvement with FOLFOX, FOLFOX+Cmab, and FOLFIRI+Cmab compared with that of FOLFIRI (HR = 0.84, 95% CrI = 0.73-0.98; HR = 0.76, 95% CrI = 0.62-0.94; HR = 0.80, 95% CrI = 0.66-0.96, respectively), as well as with FOLFOX+Cmab and FOLFIRI+Cmab compared with that of FOLFOXIRI (HR = 0.69, 95% CrI = 0.51-0.94 and HR = 0.73, 95% CrI = 0.54-0.97, respectively). The odds of adverse events grade ≥3 were significantly higher for FOLFOX+Cmab vs. FOLFIRI+Bmab (OR = 2.34, 95% CrI = 1.01-4.66). Higher odds of events were observed for FOLFIRI+Pmab in comparison with FOLFIRI (OR = 2.16, 95% CrI = 1.09-3.84) and FOLFIRI+Bmab (OR = 3.14, 95% CrI = 1.51-5.89). FOLFOX+Cmab and FOLFIRI+Bmab showed high probabilities of being first- and second-line treatments in terms of the efficacy and safety, respectively. The findings of the efficacy and safety comparisons may support the selection of appropriate treatments in clinical practice. PROSPERO registration: CRD42020153640.

Crizanlizumab and comparators for adults with sickle cell disease: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Treatment options for preventing vaso-occlusive crises (VOC) among patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) are limited, especially if hydroxyurea treatment has failed or is contraindicated. A systematic literature review (SLR) and network meta-analysis (NMA) were conducted to evaluate the efficacy and safety of crizanlizumab for older adolescent and adult (≥16 years old) SCD patients.

METHODS

The SLR included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and uncontrolled studies. Bayesian NMA of VOC, all-cause hospitalisation days and adverse events were conducted.

RESULTS

The SLR identified 51 studies and 9 RCTs on 14 treatments that met the NMA inclusion criteria. The NMA found that crizanlizumab 5.0 mg/kg was associated with a reduction in VOC (HR 0.55, 95% credible interval (0.43, 0.69); Bayesian probability of superiority >0.99), all-cause hospitalisation days (0.58 (0.50, 0.68); >0.99) and no evidence of difference on adverse events (0.91 (0.59, 1.43) 0.66) or serious adverse events (0.93 (0.47, 1.87); 0.59) compared with placebo. The HR for reduction in VOC for crizanlizumab relative to L-glutamine was (0.67 (0.50, 0.88); >0.99). These results were sensitive to assumptions regarding whether patient age is an effect modifier.

CONCLUSIONS

This NMA provides preliminary evidence comparing the efficacy of crizanlizumab with other treatments for VOC prevention.

Comparative efficacy of placebos in short-term antidepressant trials for major depression: a secondary meta-analysis of placebo-controlled trials

BACKGROUND

The issue of unblinded outcome-assessors and patients has repeatedly been stressed as a flaw in allegedly double-blind antidepressant trials. Unblinding bias can for example result from a drug's marked side effects. If such unblinding bias is present for a given drug, then it might be expected that the placebos of that drug are rated significantly less effective than that of other antidepressants.

METHODS

To test this hypothesis, the present exploratory analysis conducted a Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) comparing the efficacy of 19 different placebos in placebo-controlled trials provided in the dataset by Cipriani et al. (Lancet 2018; 391: 1357-66). Primary outcome was efficacy (continuous) estimated on the standardized mean difference (SMD) scale and defined as the pre-post change on the Hamilton Depression scale (HAMD-17), on which information was available in N = 258 trials.

RESULTS

Comparative placebo ranking suggested mirtazapine-placebo (SMD -2.0 [- 5.0-1.0 95% CrI]) to be the most, and amitriptyline- (SMD 1.2 [- 1.6-3.9 95% CrI]) and trazodone- (SMD 2.1 [- 0.9-5.2 95% CrI]) placebos to be the least effective placebos. Other placebos suggested to be more effective than amitriptyline- and trazodone-placebos (based on 95% CrIs excluding zero) were citalopram, desvenlafaxine, duloxetine, escitalopram, fluoxetine, sertraline, and venlafaxine placebos. These NMA results were corroborated by the observation that the relative efficacy between drug and placebo was considerably larger for amitriptyline and trazodone than for instance mirtazapine, duloxetine, and venlafaxine, supported by a small and insignificant correlation between drug-efficacy and placebo-efficacy (r = - 0.202, p = 0.408).

DISCUSSION

The present exploratory NMA indicates that distinguishable side effects of older drugs may unblind outcome-assessors thus resulting in overestimation of the average drug-placebo difference and underrating bias in placebo-arms, particularly for the older antidepressant drugs amitriptyline and trazodone. If confirmed in prospective studies, these findings suggest that efficacy rankings for antidepressants are susceptible to bias and should be considered unreliable or misleading. The analysis is limited by the focus on the single-comparison placebos (76%, i.e., placebos assessed in two-arm trials), since double-comparison placebos (25%, i.e., placebos assessed in three-arm trials) are hard to interpret and therefore not included in the present interpretation. Another limitation is the problem of multiplicity, which was only approximately accounted for in the Bayesian NMA by modelling treatment effects as exchangeable.

Pharmacologic and surgical therapies for patients with Meniere's disease: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Meniere's disease (MD) is a chronic condition of the inner ear consisting of symptoms that include vertigo attacks, fluctuating sensorineural hearing loss, tinnitus and aural fullness. Despite availability of various interventions, there is uncertainty surrounding their relative efficacy, thus making it difficult to select the appropriate treatments for MD. The objective of this systematic review was to assess the relative effects of the available pharmacologic and surgical interventions in patients with MD with regard to vertigo and other key patient outcomes based on data from randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

METHODS

Our published protocol registered with PROSPERO (CRD42019119129) provides details on eligibility criteria and methods. We searched various databases including MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library from inception to December 10th, 2018. Screening at citation and full-text levels and risk of bias assessment were performed by two independent reviewers in duplicate, with discrepancies resolved by consensus or third-party adjudication. Bayesian network meta-analyses (NMA) were performed for hearing change and vertigo control outcomes, along with pairwise meta-analyses for these and additional outcomes.

RESULTS

We identified 2,889 unique citations, that yielded 23 relevant publications describing 18 unique RCTs (n = 1,231 patients). Overall, risk-of bias appraisal suggested the evidence base to be at unclear or high risk of bias. Amongst pharmacologics, we constructed treatment networks of five intervention groups that included placebo, intratympanic (IT) gentamicin, oral high-dose betahistine, IT steroid and IT steroid plus high-dose betahistine for NMAs of hearing change (improvement or deterioration) and complete vertigo control. IT steroid plus high-dose betahistine was associated with the largest difference in hearing improvement compared to placebo, followed by high-dose betahistine and IT steroid (though 95% credible intervals failed to rule out the possibility of no difference), while IT gentamicin was worse than IT steroid. The NMA of complete vertigo control suggested IT gentamicin was associated with the highest probability of achieving better complete vertigo control compared to placebo, followed by IT steroid plus high-dose betahistine. Only two studies related to surgical interventions were found, and data suggested no statistically significant difference in hearing changes between endolymphatic duct blockage (EDB) versus endolymphatic sac decompression (ESD), and ESD with or without steroid injection. One trial reported that 96.5% of patients in EDB group compared to 37.5% of the patients in ESD group achieved complete vertigo control 24 months after surgery (p = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

To achieve both hearing preservation and vertigo control, the best treatment option among the pharmacologic interventions compared may be IT steroid plus high-dose betahistine, considering that IT gentamicin may have good performance to control vertigo but may be detrimental to hearing preservation with high cumulative dosage and short interval between injections. However, IT steroid plus high-dose betahistine has not been compared in head-to-head trials against other interventions except for IT steroid alone in one trial, thus future trials that compare it with other interventions will help establish comparative effectiveness with direct evidence.

Comparative efficacy of different exercise interventions in chronic non-specific low back pain: protocol of a systematic review and network meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Chronic non-specific low back pain is a major public health problem. Evidence supports the effectiveness of exercise as an intervention. Due to a paucity of direct comparisons of different exercise categories, medical guidelines were unable to make specific recommendations regarding the type of exercise working best in improving chronic low back pain. This network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomised controlled trials aims to investigate the comparative efficacy of different exercise interventions in patients with chronic non-specific low back pain.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

MEDLINE, Scopus, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Physiotherapy Evidence Database, SPORTDiscus, Clinicaltrials.gov and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform search portal were searched on November 2019 and without language restrictions. The search will be updated after data analysis. Studies on adults with non-specific low back pain of at least 12 weeks duration comparing exercise to either no specific intervention (ie, no treatment, wait-list or usual care at the treating physician's discretion) and/or functionally inert interventions (ie, sham or attention control interventions) will be eligible. Pain intensity and back-specific disability are defined as primary outcomes. Secondary outcomes will include health-related physical and mental quality of life, work disability, frequency of analgesic use and adverse events. All outcomes will be analysed short-term, intermediate-term and long-term. Data will be extracted independently by two review authors. Risk of bias will be assessed using the recommendations by the Cochrane Back and Neck Group and be based on an adaptation of the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This NMA will be reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses_NMA checklist. The results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals, implemented in existing national and international guidelines and will be presented to health care providers and decision makers. The planned completion date of the study is 1 July 2021.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020151472.

Adjusted treatment COMPArisons between guSelkumab and uStekinumab for treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis: the COMPASS analysis

BACKGROUND

Guselkumab is an interleukin-23 inhibitor indicated for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in adults. Guselkumab has demonstrated additional benefit in patients with early inadequate response to ustekinumab. Long-term efficacy comparisons of guselkumab and ustekinumab are currently lacking among ustekinumab-naive patients.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the relative efficacy of guselkumab and ustekinumab for maintenance therapy of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, using individual patient data (IPD) from randomized controlled trials.

METHODS

IPD for guselkumab from the VOYAGE 1 and 2 trials were pooled and compared with IPD for ustekinumab from the NAVIGATE trial. Multivariable logistic regression analyses compared guselkumab 100 mg and ustekinumab 45 mg or 90 mg for the achievement and maintenance of Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) 90, 75 and 100 responses up to 40 weeks. The regression models accounted for a range of clinically relevant covariates (e.g. age, sex, psoriasis duration). Relative efficacy was expressed using odds ratios (ORs) and predicted probability of treatment response associated with each intervention.

RESULTS

Patients receiving guselkumab had significantly higher probabilities of achieving a PASI 90 response than patients receiving ustekinumab, at both week 16 [70·4% vs. 46·0%, OR 2·79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·22-3·45] and week 40 (74·2% vs. 54·5%, OR 2·40, 95% CI 1·89-3·13]. Guselkumab was also associated with a significantly increased likelihood of achieving both PASI 75 and PASI 100 responses at weeks 16 and 40, compared with ustekinumab.

CONCLUSIONS

Adjusted analyses leveraging IPD demonstrate that guselkumab has a significantly higher probability of achieving and maintaining PASI treatment responses through week 40 than ustekinumab does.

Performance of model-based network meta-analysis (MBNMA) of time-course relationships: A simulation study

Time-course model-based network meta-analysis (MBNMA) has been proposed as a framework to combine treatment comparisons from a network of randomized controlled trials reporting outcomes at multiple time-points. This can explain heterogeneity/inconsistency that arises by pooling studies with different follow-up times and allow inclusion of studies from earlier in drug development. The aim of this study is to explore using simulation: (a) how MBNMA model parameters are affected by the quantity/location of observed time-points across studies/comparisons, (b) how reliably an appropriate MBNMA model can be identified, (c) the robustness of model estimates and predictions under different dataset characteristics. Our results indicate that model parameters for a given treatment comparison are estimated with low mean bias even when no direct evidence was available, provided there was sufficient indirect evidence to estimate the time-course. A staged model selection strategy that selects time-course function, then heterogeneity, then covariance structure, identified the true model most reliably and efficiently. Predictions and parameter estimates from selected models had low mean bias even in the presence of high heterogeneity/correlation between time-points. However, failure to properly account for heterogeneity/correlation could lead to high error in precision of the estimates. Time-course MBNMA provides a statistically robust framework for synthesizing direct and indirect evidence to estimate relative effects and predicted mean responses whilst accounting for time-course and incorporating correlation and heterogeneity. This supports the use of MBNMA in evidence synthesis, particularly when additional studies are available with follow-up times that would otherwise prohibit their inclusion by conventional meta-analysis.

Nivolumab plus Ipilimumab versus Existing Immunotherapies in Patients with PD-L1-Positive Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

No head-to-head trials have compared the efficacy and safety of nivolumab (Niv) plus ipilimumab (Ipi) combination therapy (Niv+Ipi) and existing regimens with immunotherapies approved as first-line treatment in patients with programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1)-positive previously untreated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We conducted a network meta-analysis of four relevant Phase Ⅲ trials to compare the efficacy and safety of Niv+Ipi, pembrolizumab (Pem) plus platinum-based chemotherapy (PBC) (Pem+PBC), Pem, Niv, or PBC using Bayesian analysis. The primary efficacy endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with advanced NSCLC with PD-L1 expression ≥1%. The primary safety endpoint was the incidence of Grade 3–5 drug-related adverse events (G3–5AEs). Efficacy and safety were ranked using surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). With regard to PFS, Niv+Ipi was inferior to Pem+PBC, and superior to Pem, Niv, or PBC alone. SUCRA ranking showed Pem+PBC had the highest efficacy for PFS, followed by Niv+Ipi, Niv, PBC, and Pem. The safety outcome analysis revealed Niv+Ipi was generally well tolerated compared to existing immunotherapy regimens. These results provide clinical information regarding the efficacy and safety of Niv+Ipi and indicate the possibility of the Niv+Ipi combination as a new therapeutic option in PD-L1-positive advanced NSCLC.

Exercise for people with a fragility fracture of the pelvis or lower limb: a systematic review of interventions evaluated in clinical trials and reporting quality

BACKGROUND

To aid design of exercise trials for people with pelvic and lower limb fragility fractures a systematic review was conducted to identify what types of exercise interventions and mobility outcomes have been assessed, investigate intervention reporting quality, and evaluate risk of bias in published trials.

METHODS

Systematic searches of electronic databases (CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PEDro) 1996-2019 were conducted to identify randomised controlled trials of exercise for pelvic or lower limb fragility fractures. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts. One reviewer extracted data, a second verified. Two reviewers independently assessed risk of bias. Intervention reporting quality was based on TIDieR, assessed by one reviewer and verified by a second. Narrative synthesis was undertaken. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42017060905.

RESULTS

Searches identified 37 trials including 3564 participants, median sample size 81 (IQR 48-124), participants aged 81 years (IQR 79-82) and 76% (2536/3356) female. All trials focussed on people with hip fracture except one on ankle fracture. Exercise types focussed on resistance exercise in 14 trials, weight bearing exercise in 5 trials, 13 varied dose of sessions with health professionals, and 2 trials each focussed on treadmill gait training, timing of weight bearing or aerobic exercise. 30/37 (81%) of trials reported adequate sequence generation, 25/37 (68%) sufficient allocation concealment. 10/37 (27%) trials lacked outcome assessor blinding. Of 65 exercise interventions, reporting was clear for 33 (51%) in terms of when started, 61 (94%) for where delivered, 49 (75%) for who delivered, 47 (72%) for group or individual, 29 (45%) for duration, 46 (71%) for session frequency, 8 (12%) for full prescription details to enable the exercises to be reproduced, 32 (49%) clearly reported tailoring or modification, and 23 (35%) reported exercise adherence. Subjectively assessed mobility was assessed in 22/37 (59%) studies and 29/37 (78%) used an objective measure.

CONCLUSIONS

All trials focussed on hip fracture, apart from one ankle fracture trial. Research into pelvic and other lower limb fragility fractures is indicated. A range of exercise types were investigated but to date deficiencies in intervention reporting hamper reproducibility. Adoption of TIDieR and CERT guidelines should improve intervention reporting as use increases. Trials would be improved by consistent blinded outcome assessor use and with consensus on which mobility outcomes should be assessed.

Layperson-Led vs Professional-Led Behavioral Interventions for Weight Loss in Pediatric Obesity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

The appropriate approach for weight loss among children and adolescents with overweight and obesity remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the difference in the treatment outcomes associated with behavioral weight loss interventions led by laypersons and professionals in comparison with unsupervised control arms among children and adolescents with overweight and obesity.

DATA SOURCES

For this systematic review and meta-analysis, the Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE), Embase, the Cochrane Library, and Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) databases were searched from January 1, 1996, to June 1, 2019.

STUDY SELECTION

Included in this study were randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of behavioral interventions lasting at least 12 weeks for children and adolescents (aged 5-18 years) with overweight and obesity. Exclusion criteria included non-RCT studies, interventions lasting less than 12 weeks, adult enrollment, participants with other medical diagnoses, pharmacological treatment use, and articles not written in English. Two of 6 reviewers independently screened all citations. Of 25 586 citations, after duplicate removal, 78 RCTs (5780 participants) met eligibility criteria.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

A bayesian framework and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to combine direct and indirect associations. Random-effects and fixed-effect network meta-analysis models were used with the preferred model chosen by comparing the deviance information criteria. This study was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) and followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The immediate and sustained changes in weight and body mass index (BMI) standardized mean difference (SMD) were primary outcomes planned before data collection began, whereas waist circumference and percent body fat were secondary outcomes. The hypothesis being tested was formulated before the data collection.

RESULTS

Of 25 586 citations retrieved, we included 78 RCTs (5780 participants), with a follow-up of 12 to 104 weeks. Compared with the control condition, random-effects models revealed that professional-led weight loss interventions were associated with reductions in weight (mean difference [MD], -1.60 kg [95% CI, -2.30 to -0.99 kg]; 68 trials; P < .001) and BMI (SMD, -0.30 [95% CI, -0.39 to -0.20]; 59 trials; P < .001) that were not sustained long term (weight MD, -1.02 kg [95% CI, -2.20 to 0.34 kg]; 21 trials; P = .06; BMI SMD, -0.12 [95% CI, -0.46 to 0.21]; 20 trials; P < .001). There was no association between layperson-led interventions and weight loss in the short-term (MD, -1.40 kg [95% CI, -3.00 to 0.26 kg]; 5 trials; P = .05) or long-term (MD, -0.98 kg [95% CI, -3.60 to 1.80 kg]; 1 trial; P = .23) compared with standard care. No difference was found in head-to-head trials (professional vs layperson MD, -0.25 kg [95% CI -1.90 to 1.30 kg]; 5 trials; P = .38).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This systematic review and meta-analysis found that professional-led weight loss interventions were associated with short-term but not sustained weight reduction among children and adolescents with overweight or obesity, and the evidence for layperson-led approaches was insufficient to draw firm conclusions.

Denosumab, raloxifene, romosozumab and teriparatide to prevent osteoporotic fragility fractures: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Fragility fractures are fractures that result from mechanical forces that would not ordinarily result in fracture.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to evaluate the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of non-bisphosphonates {denosumab [Prolia®; Amgen Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA, USA], raloxifene [Evista®; Daiichi Sankyo Company, Ltd, Tokyo, Japan], romosozumab [Evenity®; Union Chimique Belge (UCB) S.A. (Brussels, Belgium) and Amgen Inc.] and teriparatide [Forsteo®; Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN, USA]}, compared with each other, bisphosphonates or no treatment, for the prevention of fragility fracture.

DATA SOURCES

For the clinical effectiveness review, nine electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform) were searched up to July 2018.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review and network meta-analysis of fracture and femoral neck bone mineral density were conducted. A review of published economic analyses was undertaken and a model previously used to evaluate bisphosphonates was adapted. Discrete event simulation was used to estimate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years for a simulated cohort of patients with heterogeneous characteristics. This was done for each non-bisphosphonate treatment, a strategy of no treatment, and the five bisphosphonate treatments previously evaluated. The model was populated with effectiveness evidence from the systematic review and network meta-analysis. All other parameters were estimated from published sources. An NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was taken, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Fracture risk was estimated from patient characteristics using the QFracture® (QFracture-2012 open source revision 38, Clinrisk Ltd, Leeds, UK) and FRAX® (web version 3.9, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK) tools. The relationship between fracture risk and incremental net monetary benefit was estimated using non-parametric regression. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analyses were used to assess uncertainty.

RESULTS

Fifty-two randomised controlled trials of non-bisphosphonates were included in the clinical effectiveness systematic review and an additional 51 randomised controlled trials of bisphosphonates were included in the network meta-analysis. All treatments had beneficial effects compared with placebo for vertebral, non-vertebral and hip fractures, with hazard ratios varying from 0.23 to 0.94, depending on treatment and fracture type. The effects on vertebral fractures and the percentage change in bone mineral density were statistically significant for all treatments. The rate of serious adverse events varied across trials (0-33%), with most between-group differences not being statistically significant for comparisons with placebo/no active treatment, non-bisphosphonates or bisphosphonates. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were > £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year for all non-bisphosphonate interventions compared with no treatment across the range of QFracture and FRAX scores expected in the population eligible for fracture risk assessment. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for denosumab may fall below £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year at very high levels of risk or for high-risk patients with specific characteristics. Raloxifene was dominated by no treatment (resulted in fewer quality-adjusted life-years) in most risk categories.

LIMITATIONS

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are uncertain for very high-risk patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-bisphosphonates are effective in preventing fragility fractures, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are generally greater than the commonly applied threshold of £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018107651.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 29. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Determining optimal strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: systematic review, cost-effectiveness review and network meta-analysis protocol

BACKGROUND

Despite recent improvements in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the UK, deaths from CVD are relatively high compared with other high-income countries. An estimated 7 million people in the UK are living with CVD, and the healthcare cost is approximately £11 billion annually. In more than 90% of cases, the risk of a first heart attack is thought to be related to modifiable risk factors including smoking, poor diet, lipidemia, high blood pressure, inactivity, obesity and excess alcohol consumption. The aim of the study is to synthesise evidence for the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different interventions for the primary prevention of CVD.

METHODS

We will systematically search databases (for example, MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), Cochrane Library) and the reference lists of previous systematic reviews for randomised controlled trials that assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of any form of intervention aimed at adult populations for the primary prevention of CVD, including but not limited to lipid lowering medications, blood pressure lowering medications, antiplatelet agents, nutritional supplements, dietary interventions, health promotion programmes, physical activity interventions or structural and policy interventions. Interventions may or may not be targeted at high-risk groups. Publications from any year will be considered for inclusion. The primary outcome will be all cause mortality. Secondary outcomes will be cardiovascular diseases related mortality, major cardiovascular events, coronary heart disease, incremental costs per quality-adjusted life years gained. If data permits, we will use network meta-analysis to compare and rank effectiveness of different interventions, and test effect modification of intervention effectiveness using subgroup analyses and meta-regression analyses.

DISCUSSION

The results will be important for policymakers when making decisions between multiple possible alternative strategies to prevent CVD. Compared to results from existing multiple separate pairwise meta-analyses, this overarching synthesis of all relevant work will enhance decision-making. The findings will be crucial to inform evidence-based priorities and guidelines for policies and planning prevention strategies of CVD.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42019123940.

The impact of clinical heterogeneity on conducting network meta-analyses in transthyretin amyloidosis with polyneuropathy

Objective: The comparative safety and efficacy of tafamidis, patisiran and inotersen treatments for transthyretin amyloidosis with polyneuropathy (ATTR-PN) has not been evaluated in clinical trials. In the absence of head-to-head evidence, indirect treatment comparisons such as network meta-analyses (NMAs) can be performed to evaluate relative effects of treatments. This study aims to assess the feasibility of conducting an NMA of available therapies for ATTR-PN patients.Methods: Pivotal trials for three approved ATTR-PN treatments, tafamidis (Fx-005), patisiran (APOLLO) and inotersen (NEURO-TTR), were compared in terms of study design, baseline population characteristics, outcome definitions and baseline risk. These assessments of heterogeneity informed the decision to perform Bayesian NMAs.Results: Despite similar study designs, clear differences in eligibility criteria between trials were accompanied by imbalances in baseline population characteristics considered to be plausible effect modifiers, such as disease stage and previous treatment. Of the outcomes assessed, only quality of life and adverse events were similarly reported in all trials. Neuropathy outcomes were not evaluated consistently between trials.Conclusions: An NMA of ATTR-PN treatments was not feasible, given the observed cross-trial heterogeneity. This decision highlights the importance of careful consideration for clinical heterogeneity that may threaten the validity of indirect comparisons.

Intra-Cavity Lavage and Wound Irrigation for Prevention of Surgical Site Infection: Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

Background: Surgical site infections (SSIs) are costly and associated with poorer patient outcomes. Intra-operative surgical site irrigation and intra-cavity lavage may reduce the risk of SSIs through removal of dead or damaged tissue, metabolic waste, and site exudate. Irrigation with antibiotic or antiseptic solutions may further reduce the risk of SSI because of bacteriocidal properties. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have been conducted comparing irrigation solutions, but important comparisons (e.g., antibiotic vs. antiseptic irrigation) are absent. We use systematic review-based network meta-analysis (NMA) of RCTs to compare irrigation solutions for prevention of SSI. Methods: We used Cochrane methodology and included all RCTs of participants undergoing a surgical procedure with primary site closure, in which method of irrigation was the only systematic difference between groups. We used a random effects Bayesian NMA to create a connected network of comparisons. Results are presented as odds ratios (OR) of SSI, where OR <1 indicates a beneficial effect. Results: We identified 42 eligible RCTs with 11,726 participants. Most were at unclear or high risk of bias. The RCTs included groups given no irrigation or non-antibacterial, antiseptic, or antibiotic irrigation. There was substantial heterogeneity, and a random effects model was selected. Relative to non-antibacterial irrigation, mean OR of SSI was 0.439 (95% credible interval: 0.282, 0.667) for antibiotic irrigation and 0.573 (0.321, 0.953) for antiseptic agents. No irrigation was similar to non-antibacterial irrigation (OR 0.959 [0.555, 1.660]). Antibiotic and antiseptic irrigation were ranked as most effective for preventing SSIs; this conclusion was robust to potential bias. Conclusions: Our NMA found that antibiotic and antiseptic irrigation had the lowest odds of SSI. There was high heterogeneity, however, and studies were at high risk of bias. A large RCT directly comparing antibiotic irrigation with both antiseptic and non-antibacterial irrigation is needed to define the standard of care for SSI prevention by site irrigation.

A comparison between robotic, laparoscopic and open hepatectomy: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The evidence of pairwise meta-analysis of Robotic Hepatectomy (RH) vs Laparoscopic Hepatectomy (LH) and RH vs Open Hepatectomy (OH) is inconclusive. Therefore, the aim of this study, was to compare the outcomes of RH, LH and OH by performing a network meta-analysis.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed in the following databases: Pubmed, Google scholar, EMBASE and Cochrane library. Cost-effectiveness and survival benefits were selected as primary outcomes.

RESULTS

The cost was less in OH compared to both minimally invasive procedures, LH demonstrated lower cost compared to RH, but the differences were not statistically significant. Both the RH and LH cohorts demonstrated significantly lower estimated blood loss, reduced major morbidity rate and shorter length of stay compared to OH cohort. The LH and OH cohorts demonstrated significantly shorter operative time and duration of clamping compared to the RH cohort. The LH cohort included significantly smaller tumours compared to the OH cohort.

CONCLUSION

The present network meta-analysis, demonstrated that both RH and LH in malignant and benign conditions were associated with lower morbidity rates, shorter hospital stay and the procedure related costs were statistically nonsignificant between RH, LH and OH.

Brigatinib and Alectinib for ALK Rearrangement-Positive Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With or Without Central Nervous System Metastasis: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

To date, no head-to-head trials have compared the efficacy of brigatinib and alectinib against anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangement-positive (ALK-p), ALK-inhibitor-naïve, advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with central nervous system (CNS) metastasis. We conducted an indirect treatment comparison (ITC) between brigatinib and alectinib, with crizotinib as a common comparator, using a Bayesian model with non-informative prior distribution and assessed the between-study heterogeneity of the studies. The primary efficacy endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS), and efficacy was ranked using the surface under the cumulative ranking (SUCRA) curve values. ITC analysis showed that there were no significant differences in PFS between the brigatinib and alectinib arms. However, the SUCRA values revealed that alectinib ranked the highest by efficacy in the overall patient population, whereas brigatinib ranked the highest by efficacy in the CNS metastasis sub-group. Although there were no significant differences in the incidence of G3–5 adverse events between the brigatinib and alectinib arms in the overall patient population, the data were deemed insufficient for the CNS metastasis sub-group analysis. This study provides critical information to clinicians regarding the efficacy of brigatinib for ALK-p, ALK-inhibitor-naïve, advanced NSCLC patients, with and without CNS metastasis. Larger randomized, controlled trials are warranted to confirm our results.

Comparison of dietary macronutrient patterns of 14 popular named dietary programmes for weight and cardiovascular risk factor reduction in adults: systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised trials

OBJECTIVE

To determine the relative effectiveness of dietary macronutrient patterns and popular named diet programmes for weight loss and cardiovascular risk factor improvement among adults who are overweight or obese.

DESIGN

Systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised trials.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, CINAHL, AMED, and CENTRAL from database inception until September 2018, reference lists of eligible trials, and related reviews.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomised trials that enrolled adults (≥18 years) who were overweight (body mass index 25-29) or obese (≥30) to a popular named diet or an alternative diet.

OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Change in body weight, low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and C reactive protein at the six and 12 month follow-up.

REVIEW METHODS

Two reviewers independently extracted data on study participants, interventions, and outcomes and assessed risk of bias, and the certainty of evidence using the GRADE (grading of recommendations, assessment, development, and evaluation) approach. A bayesian framework informed a series of random effects network meta-analyses to estimate the relative effectiveness of the diets.

RESULTS

121 eligible trials with 21 942 patients were included and reported on 14 named diets and three control diets. Compared with usual diet, low carbohydrate and low fat diets had a similar effect at six months on weight loss (4.63 v 4.37 kg, both moderate certainty) and reduction in systolic blood pressure (5.14 mm Hg, moderate certainty v 5.05 mm Hg, low certainty) and diastolic blood pressure (3.21 v 2.85 mm Hg, both low certainty). Moderate macronutrient diets resulted in slightly less weight loss and blood pressure reductions. Low carbohydrate diets had less effect than low fat diets and moderate macronutrient diets on reduction in LDL cholesterol (1.01 mg/dL, low certainty v 7.08 mg/dL, moderate certainty v 5.22 mg/dL, moderate certainty, respectively) but an increase in HDL cholesterol (2.31 mg/dL, low certainty), whereas low fat (-1.88 mg/dL, moderate certainty) and moderate macronutrient (-0.89 mg/dL, moderate certainty) did not. Among popular named diets, those with the largest effect on weight reduction and blood pressure in comparison with usual diet were Atkins (weight 5.5 kg, systolic blood pressure 5.1 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure 3.3 mm Hg), DASH (3.6 kg, 4.7 mm Hg, 2.9 mm Hg, respectively), and Zone (4.1 kg, 3.5 mm Hg, 2.3 mm Hg, respectively) at six months (all moderate certainty). No diets significantly improved levels of HDL cholesterol or C reactive protein at six months. Overall, weight loss diminished at 12 months among all macronutrient patterns and popular named diets, while the benefits for cardiovascular risk factors of all interventions, except the Mediterranean diet, essentially disappeared.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate certainty evidence shows that most macronutrient diets, over six months, result in modest weight loss and substantial improvements in cardiovascular risk factors, particularly blood pressure. At 12 months the effects on weight reduction and improvements in cardiovascular risk factors largely disappear.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42015027929.

First-line targ veted therapies of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: A Bayesian network analysis of randomized controlled trials

PURPOSE

A variety of targeted drug were developed and proved effective and safe in clinical trials. Our study aims to compare the efficacies and safety of different targeted drugs in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for first-line treatment using a Bayesian network meta-analysis approach.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane library were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of advanced HCC patients that treated with different targeted drugs. Time to progress (TTP), overall survival (OS) and progress-free survival (PFS) were calculated as hazard ratios (HRs). Objective response rate (ORR) and the proportion of Grade 3-5 adverse events (G3-5AE) were expressed as odds ratios (ORs). We pooled study-specific HRs and ORs using Bayesian network meta-analyses, and ranked first-line drugs by the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA).

RESULTS

A total of 22 RCTs with 9288 patients were enrolled. Brivanib, linifanib, lenvatinib and sorafenib showed a significant improvement on TTP compared to placebo (HR range, 0.45-0.72). Sunitinib (HR = 1.99) and nintedanib (HR = 2.17) showed a significant decline on TTP compared to lenvatinib. Vandetanib (HR = 0.44) and sorafenib (HR = 0.73) showed a significant improvement on OS compared to placebo. There was no significant difference in PFS, ORR and G3-5AE across different drugs. According to cluster rank analysis, vandetanib was the drug with both more effective (OS) and more secure (G3-5AE) compared to Sor followed by nintedanib.

CONCLUSIONS

This network meta-analysis shows that vandetanib, linifanib, lenvatinib and nintedanib potentially may be the best substitution of sorafenib against advanced HCC as first-line targeted drugs. Vandetanib seems to be the best choise with low quality of evidence. For better survival, novel targeted treatment options for HCC are sorely needed.