Thermodynamics Constrains the Evolution of Insect Population Growth Rates: “Warmer Is Better”

Heat stress impedes development and lowers fecundity of the brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens (Stål)

This study investigated the effects of sub-lethal high temperatures on the development and reproduction of the brown plant hopper Nilaparvata lugens (Stål). When first instar nymphs were exposed at their ULT(50) (41.8°C) mean development time to adult was increased in both males and females, from 15.2±0.3 and 18.2±0.3 days respectively in the control to 18.7±0.2 and 19±0.2 days in the treated insects. These differences in development arising from heat stress experienced in the first instar nymph did not persist into the adult stage (adult longevity of 23.5±1.1 and 24.4±1.1 days for treated males and females compared with 25.7±1.0 and 20.6±1.1 days in the control groups), although untreated males lived longer than untreated females. Total mean longevity was increased from 38.8±0.1 to 43.4±1.0 days in treated females, but male longevity was not affected (40.9±0.9 and 42.2±1.1 days respectively). When male and female first instar nymphs were exposed at their ULT(50) of 41.8°C and allowed to mate on reaching adult, mean fecundity was reduced from 403.8±13.7 to 128.0±16.6 eggs per female in the treated insects. Following exposure of adult insects at their equivalent ULT(50) (42.5°C), the three mating combinations of treated male x treated female, treated male x untreated female, and untreated male x treated female produced 169.3±14.7, 249.6±21.3 and 233.4±17.2 eggs per female respectively, all significantly lower than the control. Exposure of nymphs and adults at their respective ULT(50) temperatures also significantly extended the time required for their progeny to complete egg development for all mating combinations compared with control. Overall, sub-lethal heat stress inhibited nymphal development, lowered fecundity and extended egg development time.

Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of behaviour, physiology and adaptation

A recently developed integrative framework proposes that the vulnerability of a species to environmental change depends on the species' exposure and sensitivity to environmental change, its resilience to perturbations and its potential to adapt to change. These vulnerability criteria require behavioural, physiological and genetic data. With this information in hand, biologists can predict organisms most at risk from environmental change. Biologists and managers can then target organisms and habitats most at risk. Unfortunately, the required data (e.g. optimal physiological temperatures) are rarely available. Here, we evaluate the reliability of potential proxies (e.g. critical temperatures) that are often available for some groups. Several proxies for ectotherms are promising, but analogous ones for endotherms are lacking. We also develop a simple graphical model of how behavioural thermoregulation, acclimation and adaptation may interact to influence vulnerability over time. After considering this model together with the proxies available for physiological sensitivity to climate change, we conclude that ectotherms sharing vulnerability traits seem concentrated in lowland tropical forests. Their vulnerability may be exacerbated by negative biotic interactions. Whether tropical forest (or other) species can adapt to warming environments is unclear, as genetic and selective data are scant. Nevertheless, the prospects for tropical forest ectotherms appear grim.

Habitat associations of thermophilous butterflies are reduced despite climatic warming

Climate warming threatens the survival of species at their warm, trailing-edge range boundaries but also provides opportunities for the ecological release of populations at the cool, leading edges of their distributions. Thus, as the climate warms, leading-edge populations are expected to utilize an increased range of habitat types, leading to larger population sizes and range expansion. Here, we test the hypothesis that the habitat associations of British butterflies have expanded over three decades of climate warming. We characterize the habitat breadth of 27 southerly distributed species from 77 monitoring transects between 1977 and 2007 by considering changes in densities of butterflies across 11 habitat types. Contrary to expectation, we find that 20 of 27 (74%) butterfly species showed long-term contractions in their habitat associations, despite some short-term expansions in habitat breadth in warmer-than-usual years. Thus, we conclude that climatic warming has ameliorated habitat contractions caused by other environmental drivers to some extent, but that habitat degradation continues to be a major driver of reductions in habitat breadth and population density of butterflies.

Ecological constraints on female fitness in a phytophagous insect

Although understanding female reproduction is crucial for population demography, determining how and to what relative extent it is constrained by different ecological factors is complicated by difficulties in studying the links between individual behavior, life history, and fitness in nature. We present data on females in a natural population of the butterfly Leptidea sinapis. These data were combined with climate records and laboratory estimates of life-history parameters to predict the relative impact of different ecological constraints on female fitness in the wild. Using simulation models, we partitioned effects of male courtship, host plant availability, and temperature on female fitness. Results of these models indicate that temperature is the most constraining factor on female fitness, followed by host plant availability; the short-term negative effects of male courtship that were detected in the field study were less important in models predicting female reproductive success over the entire life span. In the simulations, females with more reproductive reserves were more limited by the ecological variables. Reproductive physiology and egg-laying behavior were therefore predicted to be co-optimized but reach different optima for females of different body sizes; this prediction is supported by the empirical data. This study thus highlights the need for studying behavioral and life-history variation in orchestration to achieve a more complete picture of both demographic and evolutionary processes in naturally variable and unpredictable environments.

Climate heterogeneity modulates impact of warming on tropical insects

Evolutionary history and physiology mediate species responses to climate change. Tropical species that do not naturally experience high temperature variability have a narrow thermal tolerance compared to similar taxa at temperate latitudes and could therefore be most vulnerable to warming. However, the thermal adaptation of a species may also be influenced by spatial temperature variations over its geographical range. Spatial climate gradients, especially from topography, may also broaden thermal tolerance and therefore act to buffer warming impacts. Here we show that for low-seasonality environments, high spatial heterogeneity in temperature correlates significantly with greater warming tolerance in insects globally. Based on this relationship, we find that climate change projections of direct physiological impacts on insect fitness highlight the vulnerability of tropical lowland areas to future warming. Thus, in addition to seasonality, spatial heterogeneity may play a critical role in thermal adaptation and climate change impacts particularly in the tropics.

Influence of landscape structure and human modifications on insect biomass and bat foraging activity in an urban landscape

Urban landscapes are often located in biologically diverse, productive regions. As such, urbanization may have dramatic consequences for this diversity, largely due to changes in the structure and function of urban communities. We examined the influence of landscape productivity (indexed by geology), housing density and vegetation clearing on the spatial distribution of nocturnal insect biomass and the foraging activity of insectivorous bats in the urban landscape of Sydney, Australia. Nocturnal insect biomass (g) and bat foraging activity were sampled from 113 sites representing backyard, open space, bushland and riparian landscape elements, across urban, suburban and vegetated landscapes within 60 km of Sydney's Central Business District. We found that insect biomass was at least an order of magnitude greater within suburban landscapes in bushland and backyard elements located on the most fertile shale influenced geologies (both p<0.001) compared to nutrient poor sandstone landscapes. Similarly, the feeding activity of bats was greatest in bushland, and riparian elements within suburbs on fertile geologies (p = 0.039). Regression tree analysis indicated that the same three variables explained the major proportion of the variation in insect biomass and bat foraging activity. These were ambient temperature (positive), housing density (negative) and the percent of fertile shale geologies (positive) in the landscape; however variation in insect biomass did not directly explain bat foraging activity. We suggest that prey may be unavailable to bats in highly urbanized areas if these areas are avoided by many species, suggesting that reduced feeding activity may reflect under-use of urban habitats by bats. Restoration activities to improve ecological function and maintain the activity of a diversity of bat species should focus on maintaining and restoring bushland and riparian habitat, particularly in areas with fertile geology as these were key bat foraging habitats.

Temperature responses of developmental processes have not been affected by breeding in different ecological areas for 17 crop species

• Rates of tissue expansion, cell division and progression in the plant cycle are driven by temperature, following common Arrhenius-type response curves. • We analysed the genetic variability of this response in the range 6-37°C in seven to nine lines of maize (Zea mays), rice (Oryza spp.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) and in 18 species (17 crop species, different genotypes) via the meta-analysis of 72 literature references. • Lines with tropical or north-temperate origins had common response curves over the whole range of temperature. Conversely, appreciable differences in response curves, including optimum temperatures, were observed between species growing in temperate and tropical areas. • Therefore, centuries of crop breeding have not impacted on the response of development to short-term changes in temperature, whereas evolution over millions of years has. This slow evolution may be a result of the need for a synchronous shift in the temperature response of all developmental processes, otherwise plants will not be viable. Other possibilities are discussed. This result has important consequences for the breeding and modelling of temperature effects associated with global changes.

Coping with temperature at the warm edge--patterns of thermal adaptation in the microbial eukaryote Paramecium caudatum

BACKGROUND

Ectothermic organisms are thought to be severely affected by global warming since their physiological performance is directly dependent on temperature. Latitudinal and temporal variations in mean temperatures force ectotherms to adapt to these complex environmental conditions. Studies investigating current patterns of thermal adaptation among populations of different latitudes allow a prediction of the potential impact of prospective increases in environmental temperatures on their fitness.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

In this study, temperature reaction norms were ascertained among 18 genetically defined, natural clones of the microbial eukaryote Paramecium caudatum. These different clones have been isolated from 12 freshwater habitats along a latitudinal transect in Europe and from 3 tropical habitats (Indonesia). The sensitivity to increasing temperatures was estimated through the analysis of clone specific thermal tolerances and by relating those to current and predicted temperature data of their natural habitats. All investigated European clones seem to be thermal generalists with a broad thermal tolerance and similar optimum temperatures. The weak or missing co-variation of thermal tolerance with latitude does not imply local adaptation to thermal gradients; it rather suggests adaptive phenotypic plasticity among the whole European subpopulation. The tested Indonesian clones appear to be locally adapted to the less variable, tropical temperature regime and show higher tolerance limits, but lower tolerance breadths.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Due to the lack of local temperature adaptation within the European subpopulation, P. caudatum genotypes at the most southern edge of their geographic range seem to suffer from the predicted increase in magnitude and frequency of summer heat waves caused by climate change.

A general model for effects of temperature on ectotherm ontogenetic growth and development

The temperature size rule (TSR) is the tendency for ectotherms to develop faster but mature at smaller body sizes at higher temperatures. It can be explained by a simple model in which the rate of growth or biomass accumulation and the rate of development have different temperature dependence. The model accounts for both TSR and the less frequently observed reverse-TSR, predicts the fraction of energy allocated to maintenance and synthesis over the course of development, and also predicts that less total energy is expended when developing at warmer temperatures for TSR and vice versa for reverse-TSR. It has important implications for effects of climate change on ectothermic animals.

Theoretical predictions for how temperature affects the dynamics of interacting herbivores and plants

Concern about climate change has spurred experimental tests of how warming affects species' abundance and performance. As this body of research grows, interpretation and extrapolation to other species and systems have been limited by a lack of theory. To address the need for theory for how warming affects species interactions, we used consumer-prey models and the metabolic theory of ecology to develop quantitative predictions for how systematic differences between the temperature dependence of heterotrophic and autotrophic population growth lead to temperature-dependent herbivory. We found that herbivore and plant abundances change with temperature in proportion to the ratio of autotrophic to heterotrophic metabolic temperature dependences. This result is consistent across five different formulations of consumer-prey models and over varying resource supply rates. Two models predict that temperature-dependent herbivory causes primary producer abundance to be independent of temperature. This finding contradicts simpler extensions of metabolic theory to abundance that ignore trophic interactions, and is consistent with patterns in terrestrial ecosystems. When applied to experimental data, the model explained 77% and 66% of the variation in phytoplankton and zooplankton abundances, respectively. We suggest that metabolic theory provides a foundation for understanding the effects of temperature change on multitrophic ecological communities.

Some like it hot: the effects of climate change on reproduction, immune function and disease resistance in the cricket Gryllus texensis

In many parts of the world, climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of heat waves. How do heat waves impact short-lived poikilotherms such as insects? In the cricket, Gryllus texensis, 6 days of elevated temperatures (i.e. 7°C above the average field temperature and 5°C above their preferred temperature) resulted in increased egg laying, faster egg development and greater mass gain. The increased temperature also increased activity of phenoloxidase and lysozyme-like enzymes, two immune-related enzymes, and enhanced resistance to the Gram-negative bacterium Serratia marcescens. When given a sublethal S. marcescens infection, G. texensis maintained increased reproductive output at the elevated temperature (33°C). These data suggest that heat waves could result in more numerous, disease resistant, crickets. However, resistance to the Gram-positive bacterium, Bacillus cereus was lower at temperatures above or below the average field temperature (26°C). A sublethal infection with B. cereus reduced egg laying at all temperatures and suppressed the increase in egg laying induced by higher temperatures. These results suggest that for some species-pathogen interactions, increased temperatures can induce trade-offs between reproduction and disease resistance. This result may partly explain why G. texensis prefers temperatures lower than those that produce maximal reproductive output and enhanced immune function.

Introduction to the symposium: responses of organisms to climate change: a synthetic approach to the role of thermal adaptation

On a global scale, changing climates are affecting ecological systems across multiple levels of biological organization. Moreover, climates are changing at rates unprecedented in recent geological history. Thus, one of the most pressing concerns of the modern era is to understand the biological responses to climate such that society can both adapt and implement measures that attempt to offset the negative impacts of a rapidly changing climate. One crucial question, to understand organismal responses to climate, is whether the ability of organisms to adapt can keep pace with quickly changing environments. To address this question, a syntheses of knowledge from a broad set of biological disciplines will be needed that integrates information from the fields of ecology, behavior, physiology, genetics, and evolution. This symposium assembled a diverse group of scientists from these subdisciplines to present their perspectives regarding the ability of organisms to adapt to changing climates. Specifically, the goals of this symposia were to (1) highlight what each discipline brings to a discussion of organismal responses to climate, (2) to initiate and foster a discussion to break barriers in the transfer of knowledge across disciplines, and (3) to synthesize an approach to address ongoing issues concerning biological responses to climate.

Thermal sensitivity of Aedes aegypti from Australia: empirical data and prediction of effects on distribution

An understanding of physiological sensitivity to temperature and its variability is important for predicting habitat suitability for disease vectors under different climatic regimes. In this study, we characterized the thermal sensitivity of larval developmental rates and survival in several Australian mainland populations of the dengue virus vector Aedes aegypti. Males developed more rapidly than females, but there were no differences among populations for development time or survival despite previously demonstrated genetic differentiation for neutral markers. Optimal development and survival temperatures were 37 degrees C and 25 degrees C, respectively. The values for maximal development and survival were similar to standard functions used in the container inhabiting simulation (CIMSIM) model for predicting population dynamics ofAe. aegypti populations, but CIMSIM assumed a lower optimal temperature. Heat stress experiments indicated that larvae could withstand water temperatures up to 44 degrees C regardless of the rate at which temperature was increased. Results from development time measured under constant temperatures could predict development time under fluctuating conditions, whereas CIMSIM predicted faster rates of development. This difference acts to reduce the predicted potential number of generations of Ae. aegypti per year in Australia, although it does not influence its predicted distribution, which depends critically on the nature of the aquatic breeding sites.

Respiratory pattern transitions in three species of Glossina (Diptera, Glossinidae)

Glossina exhibit cyclic ((CYC)GE) or continuous gas exchange ((CON)GE) patterns at rest. However, the factors influencing the transition from one pattern to another are not well understood for these or other insect species. This study examines which factors could aid in predicting the presence or absence of (CYC)GE in adults of three Glossina species: G. palpalis, G. brevipalpis and G. austeni. We report the results of temperature effects on VCO(2), pattern type and the proportion of a population showing (CYC)GE, and the prediction of (CYC)GE versus (CON)GE in Glossina. First, we investigated the influence of temperature on VCO(2) and found significant elevation in resting metabolic rate (RMR) with higher temperature in all three species (P<0.001). Temperature-induced increases in VCO(2) were modulated by increased burst volume and by cycle frequency, except in G. brevipalpis which only appeared to modulate burst volume. These results are largely in keeping with VCO(2) modulation reported for other Glossina species previously. Second, elevating temperature resulted in significantly reduced numbers of individuals showing (CYC)GE (P<0.001 for all three species) contrary to previous reports for other Glossing species. Finally, we examined a range of variables as potential predictors of presence or absence of (CYC)GE in these three species. Using an information theoretic approach (Akaike weights) to select the best explanatory combination of variables which predicts likelihood of (CYC)GE, we found that results varied among species. When species were pooled, the simplest, best-fit model (ΔAIC<2 from the best model, 44.4% probability of being the best model) for predicting pattern type variation was RMR. Overall these results suggest that RMR is a key variable driving pattern type and that elevated temperature reduces the number of individuals showing cyclic patterns through elevation of RMR in these species. This study supports the idea that an interaction between cellular metabolic demand, morphological features of the gas exchange system (e.g. tracheal and spiracular conductances), and CO(2) buffer capacity likely determine gas exchange pattern variation over short time-scales.

Quantitative genetic variation for thermal performance curves within and among natural populations of Drosophila serrata

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) provide a powerful framework for studying the evolution of continuous reaction norms and for testing hypotheses of thermal adaptation. Although featured heavily in comparative studies, the framework has been comparatively underutilized for quantitative genetic tests of thermal adaptation. We assayed the distribution of genetic (co)variance for TPC (locomotor activity) within and among three natural populations of Drosophila serrata and performed replicated tests of two hypotheses of thermal adaptation--that 'hotter is better' and that a generalist-specialist trade-off underpins the evolution of thermal sensitivity. We detected significant genetic variance within, and divergence among, populations. The 'hotter is better' hypothesis was not supported as the genetic correlations between optimal temperature (T(opt)) and maximum performance (z(max)) were consistently negative. A pattern of variation consistent with a generalist-specialist trade-off was detected within populations and divergence among populations indicated that performance curves were narrower and had higher optimal temperatures in the warmer, but less variable tropical population.

Erroneous Arrhenius: modified arrhenius model best explains the temperature dependence of ectotherm fitness

The initial rise of fitness that occurs with increasing temperature is attributed to Arrhenius kinetics, in which rates of reaction increase exponentially with increasing temperature. Models based on Arrhenius typically assume single rate-limiting reactions over some physiological temperature range for which all the rate-limiting enzymes are in 100% active conformation. We test this assumption using data sets for microbes that have measurements of fitness (intrinsic rate of population growth) at many temperatures and over a broad temperature range and for diverse ectotherms that have measurements at fewer temperatures. When measurements are available at many temperatures, strictly Arrhenius kinetics are rejected over the physiological temperature range. However, over a narrower temperature range, we cannot reject strictly Arrhenius kinetics. The temperature range also affects estimates of the temperature dependence of fitness. These results indicate that Arrhenius kinetics only apply over a narrow range of temperatures for ectotherms, complicating attempts to identify general patterns of temperature dependence.

Divergence and ontogenetic coupling of larval behaviour and thermal reaction norms in three closely related butterflies

Genetic trade-offs such as between generalist-specialist strategies can be masked by changes in compensatory processes involving energy allocation and acquisition which regulation depends on the state of the individual and its ecological surroundings. Failure to account for such state dependence may thus lead to misconceptions about the trade-off structure and nature of constraints governing reaction norm evolution. Using three closely related butterflies, we first show that foraging behaviours differ between species and change remarkably throughout ontogeny causing corresponding differences in the thermal niches experienced by the foraging larvae. We further predicted that thermal reaction norms for larval growth rate would show state-dependent variation throughout development as a result of selection for optimizing feeding strategies in the respective foraging niches of young and old larvae. We found substantial developmental plasticity in reaction norms that was species-specific and reflected the different ontogenetic niche shifts. Any conclusions regarding constraints on performance curves or species-differentiation in thermal physiology depend on when reaction norms were measured. This demonstrates that standardized estimates at single points in development, or in general, allow variation in only one ecological dimension, may sometimes provide incomplete information on reaction norm constraints.

Thermodynamic effects on organismal performance: is hotter better?

Despite decades of research on the evolution of thermal physiology, at least one fundamental issue remains unresolved: whether the maximal performance of a genotype depends on its optimal temperature. One school argues that warm-adapted genotypes will outperform cold-adapted genotypes because high temperatures inevitably accelerate chemical reactions. Yet another school holds that biochemical adaptation can compensate for thermodynamic effects on performance. Here, we briefly discuss this theoretical debate and then summarize empirical studies that address whether hotter is better. In general, comparative and experimental studies support the view that hotter is better. Furthermore, recent modeling has shown that thermodynamic constraints impose unique selective pressures on thermal sensitivity. Nevertheless, the thermodynamic effect on maximal performance varies greatly among traits and taxa, suggesting the need to develop a more sophisticated view of thermodynamic constraints.

Adaptation, plasticity, and extinction in a changing environment: towards a predictive theory

Many species are experiencing sustained environmental change mainly due to human activities. The unusual rate and extent of anthropogenic alterations of the environment may exceed the capacity of developmental, genetic, and demographic mechanisms that populations have evolved to deal with environmental change. To begin to understand the limits to population persistence, we present a simple evolutionary model for the critical rate of environmental change beyond which a population must decline and go extinct. We use this model to highlight the major determinants of extinction risk in a changing environment, and identify research needs for improved predictions based on projected changes in environmental variables. Two key parameters relating the environment to population biology have not yet received sufficient attention. Phenotypic plasticity, the direct influence of environment on the development of individual phenotypes, is increasingly considered an important component of phenotypic change in the wild and should be incorporated in models of population persistence. Environmental sensitivity of selection, the change in the optimum phenotype with the environment, still crucially needs empirical assessment. We use environmental tolerance curves and other examples of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to illustrate how these mechanistic approaches can be developed for predictive purposes.

Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate

The incubation period for malaria parasites within the mosquito is exquisitely temperature-sensitive, so that temperature is a major determinant of malaria risk. Epidemiological models are increasingly used to guide allocation of disease control resources and to assess the likely impact of climate change on global malaria burdens. Temperature-based malaria transmission is generally incorporated into these models using mean monthly temperatures, yet temperatures fluctuate throughout the diurnal cycle. Here we use a thermodynamic malaria development model to demonstrate that temperature fluctuation can substantially alter the incubation period of the parasite, and hence malaria transmission rates. We find that, in general, temperature fluctuation reduces the impact of increases in mean temperature. Diurnal temperature fluctuation around means >21 degrees C slows parasite development compared with constant temperatures, whereas fluctuation around <21 degrees C speeds development. Consequently, models which ignore diurnal variation overestimate malaria risk in warmer environments and underestimate risk in cooler environments. To illustrate the implications further, we explore the influence of diurnal temperature fluctuation on malaria transmission at a site in the Kenyan Highlands. Based on local meteorological data, we find that the annual epidemics of malaria at this site cannot be explained without invoking the influence of diurnal temperature fluctuation. Moreover, while temperature fluctuation reduces the relative influence of a subtle warming trend apparent over the last 20 years, it nonetheless makes the effects biologically more significant. Such effects of short-term temperature fluctuations have not previously been considered but are central to understanding current malaria transmission and the consequences of climate change.

Hotter is better and broader: thermal sensitivity of fitness in a population of bacteriophages

Hotter is better is a hypothesis of thermal adaptation that posits that the rate-depressing effects of low temperature on biochemical reactions cannot be overcome by physiological plasticity or genetic adaptation. If so, then genotypes or populations adapted to warmer temperatures will have higher maximum growth rates than those adapted to low temperatures. Here we test hotter is better by measuring thermal reaction norms for intrinsic rate of population growth among an intraspecific collection of bacteriophages recently isolated from nature. Consistent with hotter is better, we find that phage genotypes with higher optimal temperatures have higher maximum growth rates. Unexpectedly, we also found that hotter is broader, meaning that the phages with the highest optimal temperatures also have the greatest temperature ranges. We found that the temperature sensitivity of fitness for phages is similar to that for insects.

The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer "cold-blooded" animals against climate warming

Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most "cold-blooded" terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism- and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts.

Insect thermal tolerance: what is the role of ontogeny, ageing and senescence?

Temperature has dramatic evolutionary fitness consequences and is therefore a major factor determining the geographic distribution and abundance of ectotherms. However, the role that age might have on insect thermal tolerance is often overlooked in studies of behaviour, ecology, physiology and evolutionary biology. Here, we review the evidence for ontogenetic and ageing effects on traits of high- and low-temperature tolerance in insects and show that these effects are typically pronounced for most taxa in which data are available. We therefore argue that basal thermal tolerance and acclimation responses (i.e. phenotypic plasticity) are strongly influenced by age and/or ontogeny and may confound studies of temperature responses if unaccounted for. We outline three alternative hypotheses which can be distinguished to propose why development affects thermal tolerance in insects. At present no studies have been undertaken to directly address these options. The implications of these age-related changes in thermal biology are discussed and, most significantly, suggest that the temperature tolerance of insects should be defined within the age-demographics of a particular population or species. Although we conclude that age is a source of variation that should be carefully controlled for in thermal biology, we also suggest that it can be used as a valuable tool for testing evolutionary theories of ageing and the cellular and genetic basis of thermal tolerance.

Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest.