Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic indicator of warming seas

Incorporating climate science in applications of the US endangered species act for aquatic species

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long-term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long-term projections of climate-change effects provide temporal context as a species-wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas.

Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change

Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal-limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate-related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate-dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non-linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source-sink dynamics and dispersal-limitation.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Climate variance influence on the non-stationary plankton dynamics

We examined plankton responses to climate variance by using high temporal resolution data from 1988 to 2007 in the Western English Channel. Climate variability modified both the magnitude and length of the seasonal signal of sea surface temperature, as well as the timing and depth of the thermocline. These changes permeated the pelagic system yielding conspicuous modifications in the phenology of autotroph communities and zooplankton. The climate variance envelope, thus far little considered in climate-plankton studies, is closely coupled with the non-stationary dynamics of plankton, and sheds light on impending ecological shifts and plankton structural changes. Our study calls for the integration of the non-stationary relationship between climate and plankton in prognostic models on the productivity of marine ecosystems.

Change in fish community structure in the Barents Sea

Change in oceanographic conditions causes structural alterations in marine fish communities, but this effect may go undetected as most monitoring programs until recently mainly have focused on oceanography and commercial species rather than on whole ecosystems. In this paper, the objective is to describe the spatial and temporal changes in the Barents Sea fish community in the period 1992–2004 while taking into consideration the observed abundance and biodiversity patterns for all 82 observed fish species. We found that the spatial structure of the Barents Sea fish community was determined by abiotic factors such as temperature and depth. The observed species clustered into a deep assemblage, a warm water southern assemblage, both associated with Atlantic water, and a cold water north-eastern assemblage associated with mixed water. The latitude of the cold water NE and warm water S assemblages varied from year to year, but no obvious northward migration was observed over time. In the period 1996–1999 we observed a significant reduction in total fish biomass, abundance, mean fish weight, and a change in community structure including an increase in the pelagic/demersal ratio. This change in community structure is probably due to extremely cold conditions in 1996 impacting on a fish community exposed to historically high fishing rates. After 1999 the fish community variables such as biomass, abundance, mean weight, P/D ratio as well as community composition did not return to levels of the early 90s, although fishing pressure and climatic conditions returned to earlier levels.

Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).

How many seals were there? The global shelf loss during the last glacial maximum and its effect on the size and distribution of grey seal populations

Predicting how marine mammal populations respond to habitat changes will be essential for developing conservation management strategies in the 21st century. Responses to previous environmental change may be informative in the development of predictive models. Here we describe the likely effects of the last ice age on grey seal population size and distribution. We use satellite telemetry data to define grey seal foraging habitat in terms of the temperature and depth ranges exploited by the contemporary populations. We estimate the available extent of such habitat in the North Atlantic at present (between 1.42 · 10(6) km(2) and 2.07 · 10(6) km(2)) and at the last glacial maximum (between 4.74 · 10(4) km(2) and 2.11 · 10(5) km(2)); taking account of glacial and seasonal sea-ice coverage, estimated reductions of sea-level (123 m) and sea surface temperature hind-casts. Most of the extensive continental shelf waters (North Sea, Baltic Sea and Scotian Shelf), currently supporting >95% of grey seals, were unavailable during the last glacial maximum. A combination of lower sea-level and extensive ice-sheets, massively increased seasonal sea-ice coverage and southerly extent of cold water would have pushed grey seals into areas with no significant shelf waters. The habitat during the last glacial maximum might have been as small as 3% of today's extent and grey seal populations may have fallen to similarly low numbers. An alternative scenario involving a major change to a pelagic or bathy-pelagic foraging niche cannot be discounted. However, hooded seals currently dominate that niche and may have excluded grey seals from such habitat. If as seems likely, the grey seal population fell to very low levels it would have remained low for several thousand years before expanding into current habitats over the past 12,000 years or so.

The secret to successful deep-sea invasion: does low temperature hold the key?

There is a general consensus that today’s deep-sea biodiversity has largely resulted from recurrent invasions and speciations occurring through homogenous waters during periods of the Phanerozoic eon. Migrations likely continue today, primarily via isothermal water columns, such as those typical of Polar Regions, but the necessary ecological and physiological adaptations behind them are poorly understood. In an evolutionary context, understanding the adaptations, which allow for colonisation to high-pressure environments, may enable us to predict future events. In this investigation, we examine pressure tolerance during development, in the shallow-water neogastropod Buccinum undatum using thermally acclimated egg masses from temperate and sub-polar regions across the species range. Fossil records indicate neogastropods to have a deep-water origin, suggesting shallow-water species may be likely candidates for re-emergence into the deep sea. Our results show population level differences in physiological thresholds, which indicate low temperature acclimation to increase pressure tolerance. These findings imply this species is capable of deep-sea penetration through isothermal water columns prevailing at high latitudes. This study gives new insight into the fundamentals behind past and future colonisation events. Such knowledge is instrumental to understand better how changes in climate envelopes affect the distribution and radiation of species along latitudinal as well as bathymetric temperature gradients.

Functional and Phylogenetic Approaches to Forecasting Species' Responses to Climate Change

Shifts in phenology and distribution in response to both recent and paleontological climate changes vary markedly in both direction and extent among species. These individualistic shifts are inconsistent with common forecasting techniques based on environmental rather than biological niches. What biological details could enhance forecasts? Organismal characteristics such as thermal and hydric limits, seasonal timing and duration of the life cycle, ecological breadth and dispersal capacity, and fitness and evolutionary potential are expected to influence climate change impacts. We review statistical and mechanistic approaches for incorporating traits in predictive models as well as the potential to use phylogeny as a proxy for traits. Traits generally account for a significant but modest fraction of the variation in phenological and range shifts. Further assembly of phenotypic and phylogenetic data coupled with the development of mechanistic approaches is essential to improved forecasts of the ecological consequences of climate change.

Combining projected changes in species richness and composition reveals climate change impacts on coastal Mediterranean fish assemblages

Species Temporal Turnover (STT) is one of the most familiar metrics to assess changes in assemblage composition as a consequence of climate change. However, STT mixes two components in one metric, changes in assemblage composition caused by a process of species loss or gain (i.e. the nestedness component) and changes in assemblage composition caused by a process of species replacement (i.e. the species replacement component). Drawing on previous studies investigating spatial patterns of beta diversity, we propose measures of STT that allow analysing each component (species replacement vs. nestedness), separately. We also present a mapping strategy to simultaneously visualize changes in species richness and assemblage composition. To illustrate our approach, we used the Mediterranean coastal fish fauna as a case study. Using Bioclimatic Envelope Models (BEMs) we first projected the potential future climatic niches of 288 coastal Mediterranean fish species based on a global warming scenario. We then aggregated geographically the species-level projections to analyse the projected changes in species richness and composition. Our results show that projected changes in assemblage composition are caused by different processes (species replacement vs. nestedness) in several areas of the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, our mapping strategy highlights that the coastal fish fauna in several regions of the Mediterranean Sea could experience a 'cul-de-sac' effect if exposed to climate warming. Overall, the joint exploration of changes in species richness and composition coupled with the distinction between species replacement and nestedness bears important information for understanding the nature of climate change impacts on biodiversity. These methodological advances should help decision-makers in prioritizing action in the areas facing the greatest vulnerability to climate.

Respiratory response of the deep-sea amphipod Stephonyx biscayensis indicates bathymetric range limitation by temperature and hydrostatic pressure

Depth zonation of fauna on continental margins is well documented. Whilst increasing hydrostatic pressure with depth has long been considered a factor contributing significantly to this pattern, discussion of the relative significance of decreasing temperature with depth has continued. This study investigates the physiological tolerances of fed and starved specimens of the bathyal lysianassoid amphipod Stephonyx biscayensis at varying temperature to acute pressure exposure by measuring the rate of oxygen consumption. Acclimation to atmospheric pressure is shown to have no significant interaction with temperature and/or pressure effects. Similarly, starvation is shown to have no significant effect on the interaction of temperature and pressure. Subsequently, the effect of pressure on respiration rate is revealed to be dependent on temperature: pressure equivalent to 2000 m depth was tolerated at 1 and 3°C; pressure equivalent to 2500 m depth was tolerated at 5.5°C; at 10°C pressure equivalent to 3000 m depth was tolerated. The variation in tolerance is consistent with the natural distribution range reported for this species. There are clear implications for hypotheses relating to the observed phenomenon of a biodiversity bottleneck between 2000 and 3000 metres, and for the potential for bathymetric range shifts in response to global climate change.

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change.

Global analysis of thermal tolerance and latitude in ectotherms

A tenet of macroecology is that physiological processes of organisms are linked to large-scale geographical patterns in environmental conditions. Species at higher latitudes experience greater seasonal temperature variation and are consequently predicted to withstand greater temperature extremes. We tested for relationships between breadths of thermal tolerance in ectothermic animals and the latitude of specimen location using all available data, while accounting for habitat, hemisphere, methodological differences and taxonomic affinity. We found that thermal tolerance breadths generally increase with latitude, and do so at a greater rate in the Northern Hemisphere. In terrestrial ectotherms, upper thermal limits vary little while lower thermal limits decrease with latitude. By contrast, marine species display a coherent poleward decrease in both upper and lower thermal limits. Our findings provide comprehensive global support for hypotheses generated from studies at smaller taxonomic subsets and geographical scales. Our results further indicate differences between terrestrial and marine ectotherms in how thermal physiology varies with latitude that may relate to the degree of temperature variability experienced on land and in the ocean.

Implications of a warming North Sea for the growth of haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus

The present study aimed firstly, to test for a temperature effect on North Sea haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus growth and secondly, to develop a model that could be used to assess total length (L(T)) and mass (M)-at-age response to different temperature scenarios. The von Bertalanffy growth model was fitted on a cohort-by-cohort basis from 1970 to 2006. The asymptotic L(T) (L(∞)) was negatively correlated with temperature while the rate at which L(∞) is reached (K) was positively correlated with temperature. K was negatively correlated with density, whereas no effect on L(∞) was observed. These effects were incorporated into a von Bertalanffy model which was extended to include temperature and density as explanatory variables. Only the temperature variable was significant. Fitting the extended von Bertalanffy model revealed that L(∞) decreased while K increased with increasing temperature, resulting in up to a 40% loss of individual yield at older ages. The dramatic decline observed in the mean age at which 50% of the population becomes mature suggests that higher temperatures resulted in larger young M. aeglefinus that matured earlier and therefore reached a smaller maximum size. In a global warming context, the loss of individual yield observed at old ages is likely to reduce the fisheries yield for M. aeglefinus in the North Sea.

Occurrence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio alginolyticus in the German Bight over a seasonal cycle

Bacteria of the genus Vibrio are an important component of marine ecosystems worldwide. The genus harbors several human pathogens, for instance the species Vibrio parahaemolyticus, a main cause for foodborne gastroenteritis in Asia and the USA. Pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus strains emerged also in Europe, but little is known about the abundance, pathogenicity and ecology of V. parahaemolyticus especially in Northern European waters. This study focuses on V. parahaemolyticus and its close relative Vibrio alginolyticus in the North Sea (Helgoland Roads, Germany). Free-living, plankton-attached and shellfish-associated Vibrio spp. were quantified between May 2008 and January 2010. CFUs up to 4.3 × 10(3) N l(-1) and MPNs up to 240 N g(-1) were determined. Phylogenetic classification based on rpoB gene sequencing revealed V. alginolyticus as the dominant Vibrio species at Helgoland Roads, followed by V. parahaemolyticus. We investigated the intraspecific diversity of V. parahaemolyticus and V. alginolyticus using ERIC-PCR. The fingerprinting disclosed three distinct groups at Helgoland Roads, representing V. parahaemolyticus, V. alginolyticus and one group in between. The species V. parahaemolyticus occurred mainly in summer months. None of the strains carried the virulence-associated genes tdh or trh. We further analyzed the influence of nutrients, secchi depth, temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a and phytoplankton on the abundance of Vibrio spp. and the population structure of V. parahaemolyticus. Spearman Rank analysis revealed that particularly temperature correlated significantly with Vibrio spp. numbers. Based on multivariate statistical analyses we report that the V. parahaemolyticus population was structured by a complex combination of environmental parameters. To further investigate these influences is the key to understanding the dynamics of Vibrio spp. in temperate European waters, where this microbial group and especially the pathogenic species, are likely to gain in importance.

Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change

Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt--to plan and implement effective responses to change--a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.

Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

Productivity responses of a widespread marine piscivore, Gadus morhua, to oceanic thermal extremes and trends

Climate change will have major consequences for population dynamics and life histories of marine biota as it progresses in the twenty-first century. These impacts will differ in magnitude and direction for populations within individual marine species whose geographical ranges span large gradients in latitude and temperature. Here we use meta-analytical methods to investigate how recruitment (i.e. the number of new fish produced by spawners in a given year which subsequently grow and survive to become vulnerable to fishing gear) has reacted to temperature fluctuations, and in particular to extremes of temperature, in cod populations throughout the north Atlantic. Temperature has geographically explicit effects on cod recruitment. Impacts differ depending on whether populations are located in the upper (negative effects) or in the lower (positive effects) thermal range. The probabilities of successful year-classes in populations living in warm areas is on average 34 per cent higher in cold compared with warm seasons, whereas opposite patterns exist for populations living in cold areas. These results have implications for cod dynamics, distributions and phenologies under the influence of ocean warming, particularly related to not only changes in the mean temperature, but also its variability (e.g. frequency of exceptionally cold or warm seasons).

Environment, antecedents and climate change: lessons from the study of temperature physiology and river migration of salmonids

Animal distributions are shaped by the environment and antecedents. Here I show how the temperature dependence of aerobic scope (the difference between maximum and minimum rates of oxygen uptake) is a useful tool to examine the fundamental temperature niches of salmonids and perhaps other fishes. Although the concept of aerobic scope has been recognized for over half a century, only recently has sufficient evidence accumulated to provide a mechanistic explanation for the optimal temperature of salmonids. Evidence suggests that heart rate is the primary driver in supplying more oxygen to tissues as demand increases exponentially with temperature. By contrast, capacity functions (i.e. cardiac stroke volume, tissue oxygen extraction and haemoglobin concentration) are exploited only secondarily if at all, with increasing temperature, and then perhaps only at a temperature nearing that which is lethal to resting fish. Ultimately, however, heart rate apparently becomes a weak partner for the cardiorespiratory oxygen cascade when temperature increases above the optimum for aerobic scope. Thus, the upper limit for heart rate may emerge as a valuable, but simple predictor of optimal temperature in active animals, opening the possibility of using biotelemetry of heart rate in field situations to explore properly the full interplay of environmental factors on aerobic scope. An example of an ecological application of these physiological discoveries is provided using the upriver migration of adult sockeye salmon, which have a remarkable fidelity to their spawning areas and appear to have an optimum temperature for aerobic scope that corresponds to the river temperatures experienced by their antecedents. Unfortunately, there is evidence that this potential adaptation is incompatible with the rapid increase in river temperature presently experienced by salmon as a result of climate change. By limiting aerobic scope, river temperatures in excess of the optimum for aerobic scope directly impact upriver spawning migration and hence lifetime fecundity. Thus, use of aerobic scope holds promise for scientists who wish to make predictions on how climate change may influence animal distributions.

Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up approximately 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

Chapter 3. Effects of climate change and commercial fishing on Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

During the course of the last century, populations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. have undergone dramatic declines in abundance across their biogeographic range, leading to debate about the relative roles of climatic warming and overfishing in driving these changes. In this chapter, we describe the geographic distributions of this important predator of North Atlantic ecosystems and document extensive evidence for limitations of spatial movement and local adaptation from population genetic markers and electronic tagging. Taken together, this evidence demonstrates that knowledge of spatial population ecology is critical for evaluating the effects of climate change and commercial harvesting. To explore the possible effects of climate change on cod, we first describe thermal influences on individual physiology, growth, activity and maturation. We then evaluate evidence that temperature has influenced population-level processes including direct effects on recruitment through enhanced growth and activity, and indirect effects through changes to larval food resources. Although thermal regimes clearly define the biogeographic range of the species, and strongly influence many aspects of cod biology, the evidence that population declines across the North Atlantic are strongly linked to fishing activity is now overwhelming. Although there is considerable concern about low spawning stock biomasses, high levels of fishing activity continues in many areas. Even with reduced fishing effort, the potential for recovery from low abundance may be compromised by unfavourable climate and Allee effects. Current stock assessment and management approaches are reviewed, alongside newly advocated methods for monitoring stock status and recovery. However, it remains uncertain whether the rebuilding of cod to historic population sizes and demographic structures will be possible in a warmer North Atlantic.