It’s about time: the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection in the wild

Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection

Climate change has the potential to affect the ecology and evolution of every species on Earth. Although the ecological consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, the effects of climate on the key evolutionary process driving adaptation-natural selection-are largely unknown. We report that aspects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, along with the North Atlantic Oscillation, predicted variation in selection across plant and animal populations throughout many terrestrial biomes, whereas temperature explained little variation. By showing that selection was influenced by climate variation, our results indicate that climate change may cause widespread alterations in selection regimes, potentially shifting evolutionary trajectories at a global scale.

Inferring microevolution from museum collections and resampling: lessons learned from Cepaea

Natural history collections are an important and largely untapped source of long-term data on evolutionary changes in wild populations. Here, we utilize three large geo-referenced sets of samples of the common European land-snail Cepaea nemoralis stored in the collection of Naturalis Biodiversity Center in Leiden, the Netherlands. Resampling of these populations allowed us to gain insight into changes occurring over 95, 69, and 50 years. Cepaea nemoralis is polymorphic for the colour and banding of the shell; the mode of inheritance of these patterns is known, and the polymorphism is under both thermal and predatory selection. At two sites the general direction of changes was towards lighter shells (yellow and less heavily banded), which is consistent with predictions based on on-going climatic change. At one site no directional changes were detected. At all sites there were significant shifts in morph frequencies between years, and our study contributes to the recognition that short-term changes in the states of populations often exceed long-term trends. Our interpretation was limited by the few time points available in the studied collections. We therefore stress the need for natural history collections to routinely collect large samples of common species, to allow much more reliable hind-casting of evolutionary responses to environmental change.

Fluctuating selection across years and phenotypic variation in food-deceptive orchids

Nectarless flowers that deceive pollinators offer an opportunity to study asymmetric plant-insect interactions. Orchids are a widely used model for studying these interactions because they encompass several thousand species adopting deceptive pollination systems. High levels of intra-specific phenotypic variation have been reported in deceptive orchids, suggesting a reduced consistency of pollinator-mediated selection on their floral traits. Nevertheless, several studies report on widespread directional selection mediated by pollinators even in these deceptive orchids. In this study we test the hypothesis that the observed selection can fluctuate across years in strength and direction thus likely contributing to the phenotypic variability of this orchid group. We performed a three-year study estimating selection differentials and selection gradients for nine phenotypic traits involved in insect attraction in two Mediterranean orchid species, namely Orchis mascula and O. pauciflora, both relying on a well-described food-deceptive pollination strategy. We found weak directional selection and marginally significant selection gradients in the two investigated species with significant intra-specific differences in selection differentials across years. Our data do not link this variation with a specific environmental cause, but our results suggest that pollinator-mediated selection in food-deceptive orchids can change in strength and in direction over time. In perennial plants, such as orchids, different selection differentials in the same populations in different flowering seasons can contribute to the maintenance of phenotypic variation often reported in deceptive orchids.

Insect outbreak shifts the direction of selection from fast to slow growth rates in the long-lived conifer Pinus ponderosa

Long generation times limit species' rapid evolution to changing environments. Trees provide critical global ecosystem services, but are under increasing risk of mortality because of climate change-mediated disturbances, such as insect outbreaks. The extent to which disturbance changes the dynamics and strength of selection is unknown, but has important implications on the evolutionary potential of tree populations. Using a 40-y-old Pinus ponderosa genetic experiment, we provide rare evidence of context-dependent fluctuating selection on growth rates over time in a long-lived species. Fast growth was selected at juvenile stages, whereas slow growth was selected at mature stages under strong herbivory caused by a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak. Such opposing forces led to no net evolutionary response over time, thus providing a mechanism for the maintenance of genetic diversity on growth rates. Greater survival to mountain pine beetle attack in slow-growing families reflected, in part, a host-based life-history trade-off. Contrary to expectations, genetic effects on tree survival were greatest at the peak of the outbreak and pointed to complex defense responses. Our results suggest that selection forces in tree populations may be more relevant than previously thought, and have implications for tree population responses to future environments and for tree breeding programs.

Multilevel and sex-specific selection on competitive traits in North American red squirrels

Individuals often interact more closely with some members of the population (e.g., offspring, siblings, or group members) than they do with other individuals. This structuring of interactions can lead to multilevel natural selection, where traits expressed at the group-level influence fitness alongside individual-level traits. Such multilevel selection can alter evolutionary trajectories, yet is rarely quantified in the wild, especially for species that do not interact in clearly demarcated groups. We quantified multilevel natural selection on two traits, postnatal growth rate and birth date, in a population of North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). The strongest level of selection was typically within-acoustic social neighborhoods (within 130 m of the nest), where growing faster and being born earlier than nearby litters was key, while selection on growth rate was also apparent both within-litters and within-study areas. Higher population densities increased the strength of selection for earlier breeding, but did not influence selection on growth rates. Females experienced especially strong selection on growth rate at the within-litter level, possibly linked to the biased bequeathal of the maternal territory to daughters. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering multilevel and sex-specific selection in wild species, including those that are territorial and sexually monomorphic.

Heterogeneity in ecological and evolutionary meta-analyses: its magnitude and implications

Meta-analysis is the gold standard for synthesis in ecology and evolution. Together with estimating overall effect magnitudes, meta-analyses estimate differences between effect sizes via heterogeneity statistics. It is widely hypothesized that heterogeneity will be present in ecological/evolutionary meta-analyses due to the system-specific nature of biological phenomena. Despite driving recommended best practices, the generality of heterogeneity in ecological data has never been systematically reviewed. We reviewed 700 studies, finding 325 that used formal meta-analysis, of which total heterogeneity was reported in fewer than 40%. We used second-order meta-analysis to collate heterogeneity statistics from 86 studies. Our analysis revealed that the median and mean heterogeneity, expressed as I² , are 84.67% and 91.69%, respectively. These estimates are well above "high" heterogeneity (i.e., 75%), based on widely adopted benchmarks. We encourage reporting heterogeneity in the forms of I² and the estimated variance components (e.g., τ² ) as standard practice. These statistics provide vital insights in to the degree to which effect sizes vary, and provide the statistical support for the exploration of predictors of effect-size magnitude. Along with standard meta-regression techniques that fit moderator variables, multi-level models now allow partitioning of heterogeneity among correlated (e.g., phylogenetic) structures that exist within data.

Distributions of Mutational Effects and the Estimation of Directional Selection in Divergent Lineages of Arabidopsis thaliana

Mutations are crucial to evolution, providing the ultimate source of variation on which natural selection acts. Due to their key role, the distribution of mutational effects on quantitative traits is a key component to any inference regarding historical selection on phenotypic traits. In this paper, we expand on a previously developed test for selection that could be conducted assuming a Gaussian mutation effect distribution by developing approaches to also incorporate any of a family of heavy-tailed Laplace distributions of mutational effects. We apply the test to detect directional natural selection on five traits along the divergence of Columbia and Landsberg lineages of Arabidopsis thaliana, constituting the first test for natural selection in any organism using quantitative trait locus and mutation accumulation data to quantify the intensity of directional selection on a phenotypic trait. We demonstrate that the results of the test for selection can depend on the mutation effect distribution specified. Using the distributions exhibiting the best fit to mutation accumulation data, we infer that natural directional selection caused divergence in the rosette diameter and trichome density traits of the Columbia and Landsberg lineages.

Subtle but ubiquitous selection on body size in a natural population of collared flycatchers over 33 years

Understanding the magnitude and long-term patterns of selection in natural populations is of importance, for example, when analysing the evolutionary impact of climate change. We estimated univariate and multivariate directional, quadratic and correlational selection on four morphological traits (adult wing, tarsus and tail length, body mass) over a time period of 33 years (≈ 19 000 observations) in a nest-box breeding population of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis). In general, selection was weak in both males and females over the years regardless of fitness measure (fledged young, recruits and survival) with only few cases with statistically significant selection. When data were analysed in a multivariate context and as time series, a number of patterns emerged; there was a consistent, but weak, selection for longer wings in both sexes, selection was stronger on females when the number of fledged young was used as a fitness measure, there were no indications of sexually antagonistic selection, and we found a negative correlation between selection on tarsus and wing length in both sexes but using different fitness measures. Uni- and multivariate selection gradients were correlated only for wing length and mass. Multivariate selection gradient vectors were longer than corresponding vector of univariate gradients and had more constrained direction. Correlational selection had little importance. Overall, the fitness surface was more or less flat with few cases of significant curvature, indicating that the adaptive peak with regard to body size in this species is broader than the phenotypic distribution, which has resulted in weak estimates of selection.

Integrating viability and fecundity selection to illuminate the adaptive nature of genetic clines

Genetically based trait variation across environmental gradients can reflect adaptation to local environments. However, natural populations that appear well-adapted often exhibit directional, not stabilizing, selection on ecologically relevant traits. Temporal variation in the direction of selection could lead to stabilizing selection across multiple episodes of selection, which might be overlooked in short-term studies that evaluate relationships of traits and fitness under only one set of conditions. Furthermore, nonrandom mortality prior to trait expression can bias inferences about trait evolution if viability selection opposes fecundity selection. Here, we leveraged fitness and trait data to test whether phenotypic clines are genetically based and adaptive, whether temporal variation in climate imposes stabilizing selection, and whether viability selection acts on adult phenotypes. We monitored transplants of the subalpine perennial forb, Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), in common gardens at two elevations over 2-3 years that differed in drought intensity. We quantified viability, and fecundity fitness components for four heritable traits: specific leaf area, integrated water-use efficiency, height at first flower, and flowering phenology. Our results indicate that genetic clines are maintained by selection, but their expression is context dependent, as they do not emerge in all environments. Moreover, selection varied spatially and temporally. Stabilizing selection was most pronounced when we integrated data across years. Finally, viability selection prior to trait expression targeted adult phenotypes (age and size at flowering). Indeed, viability selection for delayed flowering opposed fecundity selection for accelerated flowering; this result demonstrates that neglecting to account for viability selection could lead to inaccurate conclusions that populations are maladapted. Our results suggest that reconciling clinal trait variation with selection requires data collected across multiple spatial scales, time frames, and life-history stages.

Selection on intra-individual variation in stigma-anther distance in the tropical tree Ipomoea wolcottiana (Convolvulaceae)

It is well known that animals can exert strong selective pressures on plant traits. However, studies on the evolutionary consequences of plant-animal interactions have mainly focused on understanding how these interactions shape trait means, while overlooking its potential direct effect on the variability among structures within a plant (e.g. flowers and fruits). The degree of within-plant variability can have strong fitness effects but few studies have evaluated its role as a potential target of selection. Here we reanalysed data on Ipomoea wolcottiana stigma-anther distance to test alternate mechanisms driving selection on the mean as well as on intra-individual variance in 2 years. We found strong negative selection acting on intra-individual variation but not on mean stigma-anther distance, suggesting independent direct selection on the latter. Our result suggests that intra-individual variance has the potential to be an important target of selection in nature, and that ignoring it could lead to the wrong characterisation of the selection regime. We highlight the need for future studies to consider patterns of selection on the mean as well as on intra-individual variance if we want to understand the full extent of plant-animal interactions as an evolutionary force in nature.

Selection on parental performance opposes selection for larger body mass in a wild population of blue tits

There is abundant evidence in many taxa for positive directional selection on body size, and yet little evidence for microevolutionary change. In many species, variation in body size is partly determined by the actions of parents, so a proposed explanation for stasis is the presence of a negative genetic correlation between direct and parental effects. Consequently, selecting genes for increased body size would result in a correlated decline in parental effects, reducing body size in the following generation. We show that these arguments implicitly assume that parental care is cost free, and that including a cost alters the predicted genetic architectures needed to explain stasis. Using a large cross-fostered population of blue tits, we estimate direct selection on parental effects for body mass, and show it is negative. Negative selection is consistent with a cost to parental care, mainly acting through a reduction in current fecundity rather than survival. Under these conditions, evolutionary stasis is possible for moderately negative genetic correlations between direct and parental effects. This is in contrast to the implausibly extreme correlations needed when care is assumed to be cost-free. Thus, we highlight the importance of accounting correctly for complete selection acting on traits across generations.

Matching habitat choice in nomadic crossbills appears most pronounced when food is most limiting

Of the various forms of nonrandom dispersal, matching habitat choice, whereby individuals preferentially reside in habitats where they are best adapted, has relatively little empirical support. Here, I use mark-recapture data to test for matching habitat choice in two nomadic ecotypes of North American Red Crossbills (Loxia curvirostra complex) that exist in the lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests in the South Hills, Idaho, every summer. Crossbills are adapted for foraging on seeds in conifer cones, and in the South Hills the cones are distinctive, favoring a relatively large bill. During a period when seed was most limiting, only the largest individuals approximating the average size of the locally adapted ecotype remained for a year or more. During a period when seed was less limiting, proportionately more individuals remained and the trend for larger individuals to remain was weaker. Although matching habitat choice is difficult to demonstrate, it likely contributed to the observed patterns. Otherwise, nearly unprecedented intensities of natural selection would be needed. Given the nomadic behavior of most crossbill ecotypes and the heterogeneous nature of conifer seed crops, matching habitat choice should be favored and likely contributes to their adaptation to alternative conifers and rapid diversification.

Evolution of reproductive isolation in stickleback fish

To understand how new species form and what causes their collapse, we examined how reproductive isolation evolves during the speciation process, considering species pairs with little to extensive divergence, including a recently collapsed pair. We estimated many reproductive barriers in each of five sets of stickleback fish species pairs using our own data and decades of previous work. We found that the types of barriers important early in the speciation process differ from those important late. Two premating barriers-habitat and sexual isolation-evolve early in divergence and remain two of the strongest barriers throughout speciation. Premating isolation evolves before postmating isolation, and extrinsic isolation is far stronger than intrinsic. Completing speciation, however, may require postmating intrinsic incompatibilities. Reverse speciation in one species pair was characterized by significant loss of sexual isolation. We present estimates of barrier strengths before and after collapse of a species pair; such detail regarding the loss of isolation has never before been documented. Additionally, despite significant asymmetries in individual barriers, which can limit speciation, total isolation was essentially symmetric between species. Our study provides important insight into the order of barrier evolution and the relative importance of isolating barriers during speciation and tests fundamental predictions of ecological speciation.

Relating fitness to long-term environmental variations in natura

Quantifying links between ecological processes and adaptation dynamics in natura remains a crucial challenge. Many studies have documented the strength, form and direction of selection, and its variations in space and time, but only a few managed to link these variations to their proximal causes. This step is, however, crucial, if we are to understand how the variation in selective pressure affects adaptive allele dynamics in natural settings. We used data from a long-term survey (about 30 years) monitoring the adaptation to insecticides of Culex pipiens mosquitoes in Montpellier area (France), focusing on three resistance alleles of the Ester locus. We used a population genetics model taking temporal and spatial variations in selective pressure into account, to assess the quantitative relationships between variations in the proximal agent of selection (amounts of insecticide sprayed) and the fitness of resistance alleles. The response to variations in selective pressure was fast, and the alleles displayed different fitness-to-environment relationships: the analyses revealed that even slight changes in insecticide doses could induce changes in the strength and direction of selection, thus changing the fitness ranking of the adaptive alleles. They also revealed that selective pressures other than the insecticides used for mosquito control affected the resistance allele dynamics. These fitness-to-environment relationships, fast responses and continuous evolution limit our ability to predict the outcome of adaptive allele dynamics in a changing environment, but they clearly contribute to the maintenance of polymorphism in natural populations. Our study also emphasizes the necessity of long-term surveys in evolutionary ecology.

Can local adaptation research in plants inform selection of native plant materials? An analysis of experimental methodologies

Local adaptation is used as a criterion to select plant materials that will display high fitness in new environments. A large body of research has explored local adaptation in plants, however, to what extent findings can inform management decisions has not been formally evaluated. We assessed local adaptation literature for six key experimental methodologies that have the greatest effect on the application of research to selecting plant materials for natural resource management: experimental environment, response variables, maternal effects, intraspecific variation, selective agents, and spatial and temporal variability. We found that less than half of experiments used reciprocal transplants or natural field conditions, which are both informative for revegetation and restoration. Population growth rate was rarely (5%) assessed, and most studies measured only single generations (96%) and ran for less than a year. Emergence and establishment are limiting factors in successful revegetation and restoration, but the majority of studies measured later life‐history stages (66%). Additionally, most studies included limited replication at the population and habitat levels and tested response to single abiotic selective factors (66%). Local adaptation research should be cautiously applied to management; future research could use alternative methodologies to allow managers to directly apply findings.

Natural quantitative genetic variance in plant growth differs in response to ecologically relevant temperature heterogeneity

Adaptation to large‐scale spatial heterogeneity in the environment accounts for a major proportion of genetic diversity within species. Theory predicts the erosion of adaptive genetic variation on a within‐population level, but considerable genetic diversity is often found locally. Genetic diversity could be expected to be maintained within populations in temporally or spatially variable conditions if genotypic rank orders vary across contrasting microenvironmental settings. Taking advantage of fine‐resolution environmental data, we tested the hypothesis that temperature heterogeneity among years could be one factor maintaining quantitative genetic diversity within a natural and genetically diverse plant population. We sampled maternal families of Boechera stricta, an Arabidopsis thaliana relative, at one location in the central Rocky Mountains and grew them in three treatments that, based on records from an adjacent weather station, simulated hourly temperature changes at the native site during three summers with differing mean temperatures. Treatment had a significant effect on all traits, with 2–3‐fold increase in above‐ and belowground biomass and the highest allocation to roots observed in the treatment simulating the warmest summer on record at the site. Treatment affected bivariate associations between traits, with the weakest correlation between above‐ and belowground biomass in the warmest treatment. The magnitude of quantitative genetic variation for all traits differed across treatments: Genetic variance of biomass was 0 in the warmest treatment, while highly significant diversity was found in average conditions, resulting in broad‐sense heritability of 0.31. Significant genotype × environment interactions across all treatments were found only in root‐to‐shoot ratio. Therefore, temperature variation among summers appears unlikely to account for the observed levels of local genetic variation in size in this perennial species, but may influence family rank order in growth allocation. Our results indicate that natural environmental fluctuations can have a large impact on the magnitude of within‐population quantitative genetic variance.

Ephemeral ecological speciation and the latitudinal biodiversity gradient

The richness of biodiversity in the tropics compared to high-latitude parts of the world forms one of the most globally conspicuous patterns in biology, and yet few hypotheses aim to explain this phenomenon in terms of explicit microevolutionary mechanisms of speciation and extinction. We link population genetic processes of selection and adaptation to speciation and extinction by way of their interaction with environmental factors to drive global scale macroecological patterns. High-latitude regions are both cradle and grave with respect to species diversification. In particular, we point to a conceptual equivalence of "environmental harshness" and "hard selection" as eco-evolutionary drivers of local adaptation and ecological speciation. By describing how ecological speciation likely occurs more readily at high latitudes, with such nascent species especially prone to extinction by fusion, we derive the ephemeral ecological speciation hypothesis as an integrative mechanistic explanation for latitudinal gradients in species turnover and the net accumulation of biodiversity.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes.

Temporal variation in selection on male and female traits in wild tree crickets

Understanding temporal variation in selection in natural populations is necessary to accurately estimate rates of divergence and macroevolutionary processes. Temporal variation in the strength and direction of selection on sex‐specific traits can also explain stasis in male and female phenotype and sexual dimorphism. I investigated changes in strength and form of viability selection (via predation by wasps) in a natural population of male and female tree crickets over 4 years. I found that although the source of viability stayed the same, viability selection affected males and females differently, and the strength, direction and form of selection varied considerably from year to year. In general, males experienced significant linear selection and significant selection differentials more frequently than females, and different male traits experienced significant linear selection each year. This yearly variation resulted in overall weak but significant convex selection on a composite male trait that mostly represented leg size and wing width. Significant selection on female phenotype was uncommon, but when it was detected, it was invariably nonlinear. Significant concave selection on traits representing female body size was observed in some years, as the largest and smallest females were preyed on less (the largest may have been too heavy for flying wasps to carry). Viability selection was significantly different between males and females in 2 of 4 years. Although viability selection via predation has the potential to drive phenotypic change and sexual dimorphism, temporal variation in selection may maintain stasis.

Hormones as Mediators of Phenotypic and Genetic Integration: an Evolutionary Genetics Approach

Evolutionary endocrinology represents a synthesis between comparative endocrinology and evolutionary genetics. This synthesis can be viewed through the breeder's equation, a cornerstone of quantitative genetics that, in its univariate form, states that a population's evolutionary response is the product of the heritability of a trait and selection on that trait (R = h(2)S). Under this framework, evolutionary endocrinologists have begun to quantify the heritability of, and the strength of selection on, a variety of hormonal phenotypes. With specific reference to our work on testosterone and corticosterone in birds and lizards, we review these studies while emphasizing the challenges of applying this framework to hormonal phenotypes that are inherently plastic and mediate adaptive responses to environmental variation. Next, we consider the untapped potential of evolutionary endocrinology as a framework for exploring multivariate versions of the breeder's equation, with emphasis on the role of hormones in structuring phenotypic and genetic correlations. As an extension of the familiar concepts of phenotypic integration and hormonal pleiotropy, we illustrate how the hormonal milieu of an individual acts as a local environment for the expression of genes and phenotypes, thereby influencing the quantitative genetic architecture of multivariate phenotypes. We emphasize that hormones are more than mechanistic links in the translation of genotype to phenotype: by virtue of their pleiotropic effects on gene expression, hormones structure the underlying genetic variances and covariances that determine a population's evolutionary response to selection.

Are heritability and selection related to population size in nature? Meta-analysis and conservation implications

It is widely thought that small populations should have less additive genetic variance and respond less efficiently to natural selection than large populations. Across taxa, we meta-analytically quantified the relationship between adult census population size (N) and additive genetic variance (proxy: h (2)) and found no reduction in h (2) with decreasing N; surveyed populations ranged from four to one million individuals (1735 h (2) estimates, 146 populations, 83 species). In terms of adaptation, ecological conditions may systematically differ between populations of varying N; the magnitude of selection these populations experience may therefore also differ. We thus also meta-analytically tested whether selection changes with N and found little evidence for systematic differences in the strength, direction or form of selection with N across different trait types and taxa (7344 selection estimates, 172 populations, 80 species). Collectively, our results (i) indirectly suggest that genetic drift neither overwhelms selection more in small than in large natural populations, nor weakens adaptive potential/h (2) in small populations, and (ii) imply that natural populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions, without consistently differing habitat quality at small N. However, we caution that the data are currently insufficient to determine whether some small populations may retain adaptive potential definitively. Further study is required into (i) selection and genetic variation in completely isolated populations of known N, under-represented taxonomic groups, and nongeneralist species, (ii) adaptive potential using multidimensional approaches and (iii) the nature of selective pressures for specific traits.