Comparison of Propensity Score Methods and Covariate Adjustment: Evaluation in 4 Cardiovascular Studies

Combining Minimally Invasive Surgery With Ultra-Fast-Track Anesthesia in HeartMate 3 Patients: A Pilot Study

BACKGROUND

Minimally invasive surgery for left ventricular assist device implantation may have advantages over conventional sternotomy (CS). Additionally, ultra-fast-track anesthesia has been linked to better outcomes after cardiac surgery. This study summarizes our early experience of combining minimally invasive surgery with ultra-fast-track anesthesia (MIFTA) in patients receiving HeartMate 3 devices and compares the outcomes between MIFTA and CS.

METHODS

From October 2015 to January 2019, 18 of 49 patients with Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support profiles >1 underwent MIFTA for HeartMate 3 implantation. For bias reduction, propensity scores were calculated and used as a covariate in a regression model to analyze outcomes. Weighted parametric survival analysis was performed.

RESULTS

In the MIFTA group, intensive care unit stays were shorter (mean difference, 8 days [95% CI, 4-13]; P<0.001), and the incidences of pneumonia and right heart failure were lower than those in the CS group (odds ratio, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.01-1.75]; P=0.016, respectively). At 6 and 12 hours postoperatively, MIFTA patients had a better hemodynamic performance with lower pulmonary wedge pressure (mean difference, 2.23 mm Hg [95% CI, 0.41-4.06]; P=0.028) and a higher right ventricular stroke work index (mean difference, -1.49 g·m/m² per beat [95% CI, -2.95 to -0.02]; P=0.031). CS patients had a worse right heart failure-free survival rate (hazard ratio, 2.35 [95% CI, 0.96-5.72]; P<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with CS, MIFTA is a beneficial approach for non-Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support 1 HeartMate 3 patients with lower adverse event incidences, better hemodynamic performance, and preserved right heart function. Future large multicentric investigations are required to verify MIFTA's effects on outcomes.

Real world comparison of spironolactone and eplerenone in patients with heart failure

AIMS

In the absence of previous direct comparative studies, we aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of spironolactone and eplerenone in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in a real-world clinical setting.

METHODS

Using Fine-Gray´s competing risk regression, we compared the clinical outcomes of 293 patients with chronic HF and left ventricular ejection fraction <40% treated with eplerenone and 293 propensity-score matched individuals treated with spironolactone. Study subjects were selected from a prospective cohort of 1404 ambulatory patients with HFrEF seen since 2010 to 2019 in a single specialized HF clinic, among which 992 received a mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist at baseline. Median follow-up was 3.95 years.

RESULTS

No statistically significant differences between patients treated with eplerenone versus spironolactone were observed with regard to the risk of the primary composite end-point cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization (HR 0.95; 95% CI 0.73-1.23; p= 0.677). However, eplerenone use was associated to lower cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.55; 95% CI 0.35-0.85; p= 0.008) and lower all-cause mortality (HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.47-0.95; p= 0.027). The incidence of drug suspension due to side effects (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.40-0.85; p= 0.005) and drug suspension due to any reason (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51-0.97; p= 0.033) were lower among patients treated with eplerenone.

CONCLUSIONS

In this observational, real-world, propensity-score matched study of patients with HFrEF, eplerenone was associated to lower cardiovascular mortality and lower all-cause mortality than spironolactone.

Health Services Research in Anesthesia: A Brief Overview of Common Methodologies

The use of large data sources such as registries and claims-based data sets to perform health services research in anesthesia has increased considerably, ultimately informing clinical decisions, supporting evaluation of policy or intervention changes, and guiding further research. These observational data sources come with limitations that must be addressed to effectively examine all aspects of health care services and generate new individual- and population-level knowledge. Several statistical methods are growing in popularity to address these limitations, with the goal of mitigating confounding and other biases. In this article, we provide a brief overview of common statistical methods used in health services research when using observational data sources, guidance on their interpretation, and examples of how they have been applied to anesthesia-related health services research. Methods described involve regression, propensity scoring, instrumental variables, difference-in-differences, interrupted time series, and machine learning.

Pre-medication with oral anticoagulants is associated with better outcomes in a large multinational COVID-19 cohort with cardiovascular comorbidities

AIMS

Coagulopathy and venous thromboembolism are common findings in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and are associated with poor outcome. Timely initiation of anticoagulation after hospital admission was shown to be beneficial. In this study we aim to examine the association of pre-existing oral anticoagulation (OAC) with outcome among a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analysed the data from the large multi-national Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 infected patients (LEOSS) from March to August 2020. Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were eligible for inclusion. We retrospectively analysed the association of pre-existing OAC with all-cause mortality. Secondary outcome measures included COVID-19-related mortality, recovery and composite endpoints combining death and/or thrombotic event and death and/or bleeding event. We restricted bleeding events to intracerebral bleeding in this analysis to ensure clinical relevance and to limit reporting errors. A total of 1 433 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients were analysed, while 334 patients (23.3%) had an existing premedication with OAC and 1 099 patients (79.7%) had no OAC. After risk adjustment for comorbidities, pre-existing OAC showed a protective influence on the endpoint death (OR 0.62, P = 0.013) as well as the secondary endpoints COVID-19-related death (OR 0.64, P = 0.023) and non-recovery (OR 0.66, P = 0.014). The combined endpoint death or thrombotic event tended to be less frequent in patients on OAC (OR 0.71, P = 0.056).

CONCLUSIONS

Pre-existing OAC is protective in COVID-19, irrespective of anticoagulation regime during hospital stay and independent of the stage and course of disease.

The comparative cardiovascular and renal effectiveness of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: A Scandinavian cohort study

AIM

To assess the comparative cardiovascular and renal effectiveness of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors versus glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists in routine clinical practice.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cohort study of nationwide registers from Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, including 87 525 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors and 63 921 new users of GLP-1 receptor agonists, was conducted using data from 2013-2018. Co-primary outcomes, analysed using an intention-to-treat exposure definition, were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death), heart failure (hospitalization or death because of heart failure), and serious renal events (renal replacement therapy, hospitalization for renal events, and death from renal causes).

RESULTS

Use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus GLP-1 receptor agonists was associated with a higher risk of MACE (adjusted incidence rate: 15.2 vs. 14.4 events per 1000 person-years; HR 1.07 [95% CI 1.01-1.15]), a similar risk of heart failure (6.0 vs. 6.0 events per 1000 person-years; HR 1.02 [0.92-1.12]), and a lower risk of serious renal events (2.9 vs. 4.0 events per 1000 person-years; HR 0.76 [0.66-0.87]). In as-treated analyses, the HR (95% CI) was 1.11 (1.00-1.24) for MACE, 0.88 (0.74-1.04) for heart failure, and 0.60 (0.47-0.77) for serious renal events. In secondary outcome analyses, use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus GLP-1 receptor agonists was not associated with statistically significant differences for the risk of myocardial infarction (HR 1.09 [95% CI 1.00-1.19]), cardiovascular death (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.84-1.12]), death from renal causes (HR 0.75 [95% CI 0.41-1.35]), or any cause death (HR 1.01 [95% CI 0.94-1.09]), while the risk of stroke was higher (HR 1.14 [95% CI 1.03-1.26]), and the risk of renal replacement therapy (HR 0.74 [95% CI 0.56-0.97]) and hospitalization for renal events (HR 0.75 [95% CI 0.65-0.88]) were lower among users of SGLT2 inhibitors.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of SGLT2 inhibitors versus GLP-1 receptor agonists was associated with a similar risk of heart failure and a lower risk of serious renal events, while use of GLP-1 receptor agonists versus SGLT2 inhibitors was associated with a slightly lower risk of MACE. In as-treated analyses, the associations with MACE and serious renal events increased in magnitude, and the HR for heart failure tended towards a protective association for SGLT2 inhibitors.

Outcomes of Patients with Necrotizing Soft Tissue Infections: A Propensity-Matched Analysis Using the National Inpatient Sample

Background: Necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTIs) are severe, rapidly spreading infections with high morbidity and mortality. Attempts to identify risk factors for mortality and morbidity have produced variable results. We hope to determine which factors across the NSTI population impact mortality, morbidities, and discharge disposition. Patients and Methods: Retrospective data from the National Inpatient Sample from 2012-2018 of patients with primary diagnosis of NSTI (gas gangrene, necrotizing faciitis, cutaneous gangrene, or Fournier gangrene) were identified for analysis. A 1:4 greedy match was performed and risk factors for in-hospital mortality and discharge disposition were examined. Continuous variables were assessed using t-tests and Wilcoxon rank sum tests. Categorical variables were assessed using χ² and Fisher exact tests. Statistical significance was defined as p < 0.05. Results: A total of 6,608 patients were identified. Weighted, this represents 33,040 patients; 32,390 are in the no-mortality cohort and 650 in the mortality cohort. Advanced age group was a risk factor for both in-hospital mortality and morbidity, but not for discharge to a skilled nursing or rehabilitation facility. Having two or more comorbidities was a risk factor for mortality, morbidity, and discharge to skilled nursing or rehabilitation facility. Cancer, liver disease, and kidney disease were predictors of in-hospital mortality. Diabetes mellitus and kidney disease were predictors of experiencing an in-hospital complication. Diabetes mellitus, heart disease, and kidney disease were predictors for discharge to skilled nursing or rehabilitation facility. Conclusions: Necrotizing soft tissue infections are associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Identifying patients at higher risk for mortality, morbidity, and higher level of care at discharge can help providers properly allocate resources to improve patient outcomes and reduce the financial burden on patients and healthcare facilities. Special attention should be paid to those with existing or acute kidney dysfunction because this was the only comorbidity associated with increased risk mortality, morbidity, and discharge to higher level of care.

Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Patients With Gynecological Cancer: Machine Learning-Augmented Propensity Score Mortality and Cost Analysis for 383,760 Patients

Background

Despite the growing number of patients with both coronary artery disease and gynecological cancer, there are no nationally representative studies of mortality and cost effectiveness for percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) and this cancer type.

Methods

Backward propagation neural network machine learning supported and propensity score adjusted multivariable regression was conducted for the above outcomes in this case-control study of the 2016 National Inpatient Sample (NIS), the United States' largest all-payer hospitalized dataset. Regression models were fully adjusted for age, race, income, geographic region, cancer metastases, mortality risk, and the likelihood of undergoing PCI (and also with length of stay [LOS] for cost). Analyses were also adjusted for the complex survey design to produce nationally representative estimates. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-based cost effectiveness ratio (CER) analysis was performed.

Results

Of the 30,195,722 hospitalized patients meeting criteria, 1.27% had gynecological cancer of whom 0.02% underwent PCI including 0.04% with metastases. In propensity score adjusted regression among all patients, the interaction of PCI and gynecological cancer (vs. not having PCI) significantly reduced mortality (OR 0.53, 95%CI 0.36–0.77; p = 0.001) while increasing LOS (Beta 1.16 days, 95%CI 0.57–1.75; p &lt; 0.001) and total cost (Beta $31,035.46, 95%CI 26758.86–35312.06; p &lt; 0.001). Among gynecological cancer patients, mortality was significantly reduced by PCI (OR 0.58, 95%CI 0.39–0.85; p = 0.006) and being in East North Central, West North Central, South Atlantic, and Mountain regions (all p &lt; 0.03) compared to New England. PCI reduced mortality but not significantly for metastatic patients (OR 0.74, 95%CI 0.32–1.71; p = 0.481). Eighteen extra gynecological cancer patients' lives were saved with PCI for a net national cost of $3.18 billion and a CER of $176.50 million per averted death.

Conclusion

This large propensity score analysis suggests that PCI may cost inefficiently reduce mortality for gynecological cancer patients, amid income and geographic disparities in outcomes.

New metabolic health definition might not be a reliable predictor for diabetes in the nonobese Chinese population

AIM

To investigate the predictive values of the new metabolic health (MH) definition for future diabetes in a nonobese Chinese population, compared with the MH definition from metabolic syndrome (MetS).

METHODS

The data were collected in 1992 and then again in 2007 from the same group of 653 participants. The risk assessment of the new MH definition and the MH definition from MetS for future diabetes was performed by Cox regression analysis with overlap weighting as the primary analysis.

RESULTS

During the follow-up, 62 participants were diagnosed with diabetes. In the primary analysis with overlap weighting, there was no significant association between new MH and diabetes (HR: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.45-2.78, p = 0.803); conversely, based on the MH definition from MetS, the participants with MH were less likely to have had diabetes than the participants with MUHs (HR: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.22-0.78, p = 0.007). Furthermore, other analysis methods also confirmed the reproducibility of abovementioned results. In addition, sensitivity analysis excluding participants with prediabetes also demonstrated similar results with the primary analysis.

CONCLUSION

In contrast to the previous MH definition from MetS, the new MH definition was not a reliable predictor for future diabetes in the nonobese Chinese population.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Temperature Trajectories Correlate With Hyperinflammatory and Hypercoagulable Subphenotypes

OBJECTIVES

Body temperature trajectories of infected patients are associated with specific immune profiles and survival. We determined the association between temperature trajectories and distinct manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Four hospitals within an academic healthcare system from March 2020 to February 2021.

PATIENTS

All adult patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019.

INTERVENTIONS

Using a validated group-based trajectory model, we classified patients into four previously defined temperature trajectory subphenotypes using oral temperature measurements from the first 72 hours of hospitalization. Clinical characteristics, biomarkers, and outcomes were compared between subphenotypes.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The 5,903 hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 patients were classified into four subphenotypes: hyperthermic slow resolvers (n = 1,452, 25%), hyperthermic fast resolvers (1,469, 25%), normothermics (2,126, 36%), and hypothermics (856, 15%). Hypothermics had abnormal coagulation markers, with the highest d-dimer and fibrin monomers (p < 0.001) and the highest prevalence of cerebrovascular accidents (10%, p = 0.001). The prevalence of venous thromboembolism was significantly different between subphenotypes (p = 0.005), with the highest rate in hypothermics (8.5%) and lowest in hyperthermic slow resolvers (5.1%). Hyperthermic slow resolvers had abnormal inflammatory markers, with the highest C-reactive protein, ferritin, and interleukin-6 (p < 0.001). Hyperthermic slow resolvers had increased odds of mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, and 30-day inpatient mortality (odds ratio, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.13-2.19) compared with hyperthermic fast resolvers. Over the course of the pandemic, we observed a drastic decrease in the prevalence of hyperthermic slow resolvers, from representing 53% of admissions in March 2020 to less than 15% by 2021. We found that dexamethasone use was associated with significant reduction in probability of hyperthermic slow resolvers membership (27% reduction; 95% CI, 23-31%; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Hypothermics had abnormal coagulation markers, suggesting a hypercoagulable subphenotype. Hyperthermic slow resolvers had elevated inflammatory markers and the highest odds of mortality, suggesting a hyperinflammatory subphenotype. Future work should investigate whether temperature subphenotypes benefit from targeted antithrombotic and anti-inflammatory strategies.

Beta-Blocker Exposure and Survival in Patients With Transthyretin Amyloid Cardiomyopathy

OBJECTIVE

To investigate a potential association between beta-blocker exposure and survival in patients with transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM).

METHODS

In this real-world prospective registry of 128 consecutive patients with ATTR-CM recruited in 7 institutions in Galicia (Spain), survival of 65 patients who received beta blockers on registry enrollment was compared with that of 63 untreated controls by means of both unweighted Cox regression and Cox regression with inverse probability of treatment weighting. Tolerance to and adverse effects of beta blockers were recorded. Median study follow-up was 520 days.

RESULTS

Patients with ATTR-CM who received beta blockers showed statistically significant lower all-cause mortality than untreated controls as evaluated by either unweighted Cox regression (hazard ratio, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.12 to 0.79) or Cox regression with inverse probability of treatment weighting (hazard ratio, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.08 to 0.41; P<.001). Several sensitivity analyses confirmed the internal validity of these results. The overall frequency of beta-blocker suspension due to adverse effects was 25% (95% CI, 15.5% to 34.5%).

CONCLUSION

In this real-world, prospective, multi-institutional registry, patients with ATTR-CM who received beta blockers had lower all-cause mortality than untreated controls.

Gender differences in outcome in patients with diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus is an independent risk factor in the development of coronary artery disease (CAD), myocardial infarction (MI), and cardiac death (CD). The major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) between men and women in diabetic patients stratified by CAD (previous MI and/or coronary revascularization, CR) were analyzed.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A cohort of 1327 consecutive diabetic patients (age 66.5 ± 9 years) underwent gated SPECT (single-photon emission computed tomography). During a mean follow-up of 4.7 ± 2.2 years post gated SPECT, MACEs (non-fatal MI, CD, and late CR) were evaluated according to gender stratified by CAD. Among diabetic patients without known CAD (N = 731), men had more MACEs (sHR 1.9;95%CI 1.2-3.2) than women. Among diabetic patients with known CAD (N = 596), there was no difference in MACEs in diabetic men and women (sHR 1.15;95%CI 0.73-1.8). Diabetic women with known CAD (n = 143) were the group with the highest risk (sHR 1.7; P = .041) for MACEs (4.5% MACEs/year, [95%CI 3.1%-6.4%]), compared to the remaining diabetic patients (N = 1184) (3% MACEs/year, [95%CI 2.6%-3.5%]).

CONCLUSIONS

The prognosis of diabetic patients for MACEs is different in men and women stratified by CAD. The worst prognosis for MACEs occurs in women with known CAD.

Propensity score methods for comparative-effectiveness analysis: A case study of direct oral anticoagulants in the atrial fibrillation population

Objective

To explore methodological challenges when using real-world evidence (RWE) to estimate comparative-effectiveness in the context of Health Technology Assessment of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in Scotland.

Methods

We used linkage data from the Prescribing Information System (PIS), Scottish Morbidity Records (SMR) and mortality records for newly anticoagulated patients to explore methodological challenges in the use of Propensity score (PS) matching, Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) and covariate adjustment with PS. Model performance was assessed by standardised difference. Clinical outcomes (stroke and major bleeding) and mortality were compared for all DOACs (including apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban) versus warfarin. Patients were followed for 2 years from first oral anticoagulant prescription to first clinical event or death. Censoring was applied for treatment switching or discontinuation.

Results

Overall, a good balance of patients’ covariates was obtained with every PS model tested. IPW was found to be the best performing method in assessing covariate balance when applied to subgroups with relatively large sample sizes (combined-DOACs versus warfarin).

With the IPTW-IPCW approach, the treatment effect tends to be larger, but still in line with the treatment effect estimated using other PS methods. Covariate adjustment with PS in the outcome model performed well when applied to subgroups with smaller sample sizes (dabigatran versus warfarin), as this method does not require further reduction of sample size, and trimming or truncation of extreme weights.

Conclusion

The choice of adequate PS methods may vary according to the characteristics of the data. If assumptions of unobserved confounding hold, multiple approaches should be identified and tested. PS based methods can be implemented using routinely collected linked data, thus supporting Health Technology decision-making.

Infant feeding practices and asthma in children aged 6 months to 5 years using a propensity score approach

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association between exclusive breastfeeding, early introduction of feeding formula, early weaning, and asthma in children aged six months to five years in a sample of non-institutionalized US children using a propensity score approach.

METHODS

Our study used data from the National Survey of Children's Health (2012-2018) of 3,820 children with physician-diagnosed asthma aged 6 months to 5 years. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to control selection bias with age, sex, race, birth weight, Federal Poverty Level, parent's education, and parent smoking history used as covariates in PSM. The total number in the matched sample was 6,904 (3,452 non-asthmatics; 3,452 asthmatics). Matched and unmatched samples were analysed using the χ² test and multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS

Exclusive breastfeeding was protective against asthma in the pre-matching (AOR 0.72; 95% CI: 0.54-0.97; p = 0.03) and post-matching (AOR 0.66; 95% CI: 0.55-0.81; p < 0.001) samples. Formula feeding before 6 months was associated with asthma in unmatched (AOR 1.38; 95% CI: 1.15-1.66; p < 0.001) and matched (AOR 1.31; 95% CI: 1.16-1.47; p < 0.001) sample. Early weaning before 6 months was associated with asthma in unmatched (AOR 1.62; 95% CI: 1.35-1.54; p < 0.001) and matched sample (AOR 1.37; 95% CI: 1.23-1.54; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Public health systems should continue to recommend the implementation of the World Health Organization exclusive breastfeeding guideline in developed countries. Asthma interventions in children under two years should continue to emphasize exclusive breastfeeding to reduce the incidence of infant asthma.

Association between Sodium Glucose Co-transporter 2 Inhibitors and Incident Glaucoma in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: A Multi-institutional Cohort Study in Taiwan

PURPOSE

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is an important risk factor for glaucoma, and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have been shown to protect the optic nerves. We therefore aimed to evaluate the association between SGLT2 inhibitors and incident glaucoma.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study analyzed the largest multi-institutional electronic medical records database in Taiwan, containing data of over a million individuals. We included T2D patients newly prescribed SGLT2 inhibitors or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) from 2016 to 2018. Our primary outcome was incident glaucoma diagnosis between initiation of SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1 RAs, and 31st March 2021. After applying inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to increase homogeneity between the two treatment groups, we estimated hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the risk of glaucoma, based on Cox proportional hazards regression models.

RESULTS

We included 9,927 and 1,065 T2D patients who had been newly prescribed SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1 RAs, respectively. Lower risk of incident glaucoma was observed in patients receiving SGLT2 inhibitors (7.9 events per 1,000 person-years), compared to those receiving GLP-1 RAs (10.0 events per 1,000 person-years), with an HR of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.69-0.95). Multiple sensitivity analyses and a negative control outcome analysis confirmed the robustness of our main findings.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that T2D patients newly prescribed SGLT2 inhibitors have a reduced risk of incident glaucoma, compared to those prescribed GLP-1 RAs, in clinical practice. Future prospective studies are suggested to confirm this association.

Real-World Effectiveness of Beta-Blockers versus Other Antihypertensives in Reducing All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

AIM

The aim of the study was to compare the effectiveness of beta-blockers with other antihypertensive classes in reducing all-cause mortality, cardiovascular-related mortality and the risk of cerebrocardiovascular events.

METHODS

This noninterventional study was conducted within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Hypertensive patients who initiated antihypertensive monotherapy were allocated to one of five cohorts: beta-blockers; angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi); angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB); calcium channel blockers (CCB); and diuretics. Differences in outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models with competing risks.

RESULTS

A total of 44,404 patients were prescribed beta-blockers (75% atenolol), 132,545 ACEi, 12,018 ARB, 91,731 CCB, and 106,547 diuretics. At baseline, patients in the beta-blocker cohort presented more frequently with angina, arrhythmia, and atrial fibrillation. The risk of all-cause mortality was lower for those treated with ACEi, ARB, and CCB, and no difference was observed compared with diuretics (adjusted hazard ratio versus beta-blockers (98.75% CI), for ACEi 0.71 (0.61, 0.83), ARB 0.67 (0.51, 0.88), CCB 0.76 (0.66, 0.88), diuretics 1.06 (0.93, 1.22)). No differences were seen in the risk of cardiovascular mortality for patients treated with beta-blockers, ARB, CCB, and diuretics, while a lower risk in patients treated with ACEi was observed (ACEi 0.63 (0.43, 0.91), ARB 0.64 (0.32, 1.28), CCB 0.71 (0.49, 1.03), diuretics 0.97 (0.69, 1.37)).

CONCLUSIONS

These data add to the limited pool of evidence from real-world studies exploring the effectiveness of beta-blockers versus other antihypertensive classes. Discrepancies to previously published studies might be partly explained by differences in the selected populations and in the follow-up time.

Association of hysterectomy and invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer: a cohort study within UKCTOCS

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa and ovarian and tubal cancer.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Thirteen NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

POPULATION

A total of 202 506 postmenopausal women recruited between 2001 and 2005 to the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) and followed up until 31 December 2014.

METHODS

Multiple sources (questionnaires, hospital notes, Hospital Episodes Statistics, national cancer/death registries, ultrasound reports) were used to obtain accurate data on hysterectomy (with conservation of one or both adnexa) and outcomes censored at bilateral oophorectomy, death, ovarian/tubal cancer diagnosis, loss to follow up or 31 December 2014. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer (WHO 2014) on independent outcome review.

RESULTS

Hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa was reported in 41 912 (20.7%; 41 912/202 506) women. Median follow up was 11.1 years (interquartile range 9.96-12.04), totalling >2.17 million woman-years. Among women who had undergone hysterectomy, 0.55% (231/41 912) were diagnosed with ovarian/tubal cancer, compared with 0.59% (945/160 594) of those with intact uterus. Multivariable analysis showed no evidence of an association between hysterectomy and invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal cancer (hazard ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.85-1.13, P = 0.765).

CONCLUSIONS

This large cohort study provides further independent validation that hysterectomy is not associated with alteration of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer risk. These data are important both for clinical counselling and for refining risk prediction models.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Hysterectomy does not alter risk of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer.

The importance of the design of observational studies in comparative effectiveness research: Lessons from the GARFIELD-AF and ORBIT-AF registries

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the effectiveness of a treatment. However, in many instances they are impractical to conduct because of time limitations, cost restrictions, or ethical reasons. As a consequence, non-randomized observational studies have an important role in comparative effectiveness and safety research since they can address issues that would not be possible using conventional RCT methodology. Observational studies can be strategically designed to reduce the risk of potential sources of bias by emulating the design principles of an equivalent but ideal randomized trial - the target trial - that would answer the research question of interest. In this article, we review some of the necessary components of observational studies required for valid causal inference within the framework of target trial emulation, so as to avoid common methodological pitfalls of study design. We discuss the assumptions of consistency, time-zero specification, exchangeability and positivity. To illustrate these concepts in a context where existing knowledge is well-established through clinical trials, we evaluate and compare the treatment effects of vitamin K antagonists (VKA) against no VKA (No VKA) on the treatment of atrial fibrillation from two real-world observational studies, namely the GARFIELD-AF and ORBIT-AF registries. Results are compared with those of published RCTs.

Endovascular stent grafting and open surgical replacement for chronic thoracic aortic aneurysms: a systematic review and prospective cohort study

Background

The management of chronic thoracic aortic aneurysms includes conservative management, watchful waiting, endovascular stent grafting and open surgical replacement. The Effective Treatments for Thoracic Aortic Aneurysms (ETTAA) study investigates timing and intervention choice.

Objective

To describe pre- and post-intervention management of and outcomes for chronic thoracic aortic aneurysms.

Design

A systematic review of intervention effects; a Delphi study of 360 case scenarios based on aneurysm size, location, age, operative risk and connective tissue disorders; and a prospective cohort study of growth, clinical outcomes, costs and quality of life.

Setting

Thirty NHS vascular/cardiothoracic units.

Participants

Patients aged > 17 years who had existing or new aneurysms of ≥ 4 cm in diameter in the arch, descending or thoracoabdominal aorta.

Interventions

Endovascular stent grafting and open surgical replacement.

Main outcomes

Pre-intervention aneurysm growth, pre-/post-intervention survival, clinical events, readmissions and quality of life; and descriptive statistics for costs and quality-adjusted life-years over 12 months and value of information using a propensity score-matched subsample.

Results

The review identified five comparative cohort studies (endovascular stent grafting patients, n = 3955; open surgical replacement patients, n = 21,197). Pooled short-term all-cause mortality favoured endovascular stent grafting (odds ratio 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.51 to 0.98; no heterogeneity). Data on survival beyond 30 days were mixed. Fewer short-term complications were reported with endovascular stent grafting. The Delphi study included 20 experts (13 centres). For patients with aneurysms of ≤ 6.0 cm in diameter, watchful waiting was preferred. For patients with aneurysms of > 6.0 cm, open surgical replacement was preferred in the arch, except for elderly or high-risk patients, and in the descending aorta if patients had connective tissue disorders. Otherwise endovascular stent grafting was preferred. Between 2014 and 2018, 886 patients were recruited (watchful waiting, n = 489; conservative management, n = 112; endovascular stent grafting, n = 150; open surgical replacement, n = 135). Pre-intervention death rate was 8.6% per patient-year; 49.6% of deaths were aneurysm related. Death rates were higher for women (hazard ratio 1.79, 95% confidence interval 1.25 to 2.57; p = 0.001) and older patients (age 61–70 years: hazard ratio 2.50, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 5.43; age 71–80 years: hazard ratio 3.49, 95% confidence interval 1.26 to 9.66; age > 80 years: hazard ratio 7.01, 95% confidence interval 2.50 to 19.62; all compared with age < 60 years, p < 0.001) and per 1-cm increase in diameter (hazard ratio 1.90, 95% confidence interval 1.65 to 2.18; p = 0.001). The results were similar for aneurysm-related deaths. Decline per year in quality of life was greater for older patients (additional change –0.013 per decade increase in age, 95% confidence interval –0.019 to –0.007; p < 0.001) and smokers (additional change for ex-smokers compared with non-smokers 0.003, 95% confidence interval –0.026 to 0.032; additional change for current smokers compared with non-smokers –0.034, 95% confidence interval –0.057 to –0.01; p = 0.004). At the time of intervention, endovascular stent grafting patients were older (age difference 7.1 years; 95% confidence interval 4.7 to 9.5 years; p < 0.001) and more likely to be smokers (75.8% vs. 66.4%; p = 0.080), have valve disease (89.9% vs. 71.6%; p < 0.0001), have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (21.3% vs. 13.3%; p = 0.087), be at New York Heart Association stage III/IV (22.3% vs. 16.0%; p = 0.217), have lower levels of haemoglobin (difference –6.8 g/l, 95% confidence interval –11.2 to –2.4 g/l; p = 0.003) and take statins (69.3% vs. 42.2%; p < 0.0001). Ten (6.7%) endovascular stent grafting and 15 (11.1%) open surgical replacement patients died within 30 days of the procedure (p = 0.2107). One-year overall survival was 82.5% (95% confidence interval 75.2% to 87.8%) after endovascular stent grafting and 79.3% (95% confidence interval 71.1% to 85.4%) after open surgical replacement. Variables affecting survival were aneurysm site, age, New York Heart Association stage and time waiting for procedure. For endovascular stent grafting, utility decreased slightly, by –0.017 (95% confidence interval –0.062 to 0.027), in the first 6 weeks. For open surgical replacement, there was a substantial decrease of –0.160 (95% confidence interval –0.199 to –0.121; p < 0.001) up to 6 weeks after the procedure. Over 12 months endovascular stent grafting was less costly, with higher quality-adjusted life-years. Formal economic analysis was unfeasible.

Limitations

The study was limited by small numbers of patients receiving interventions and because only 53% of patients were suitable for both interventions.

Conclusions

Small (4–6 cm) aneurysms require close observation. Larger (> 6 cm) aneurysms require intervention without delay. Endovascular stent grafting and open surgical replacement were successful for carefully selected patients, but cost comparisons were unfeasible. The choice of intervention is well established, but the timing of intervention remains challenging.

Future work

Further research should include an analysis of the risk factors for growth/rupture and long-term outcomes.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN04044627 and NCT02010892.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 6. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Direct-acting antiviral agents and risk of Hepatocellular carcinoma: Critical appraisal of the evidence

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) revolutionized the treatment of chronic HCV-related disease achieving high rates of sustained virological response (SVR), even in advanced cirrhosis, with modest contraindications and a low rate of adverse events. However, the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists due to the underlying chronic liver disease, both in patients with and without history of HCC. Although some initial studies reported a presumptive high risk of HCC development after DAA therapy, more recent observational studies denied this hypothesis. The residual risk for HCC occurrence after HCV eradication seems being progressively reduced with time after SVR. Data on recurrence of HCC after DAA exposure in patients with previously treated carcinoma initially reported conflicting results too, this being also due to methodological issues in analysis of retrospective multicenter studies. Anyway, current evidence support the use of DAAs in HCV-HCC treated patients, without any higher risk of tumor recurrence linked to antiviral therapy. Less effort has been made to evaluate the efficacy of DAA therapy in patients with untreated active HCC and it has been questioned whether a lower rate of SVR would be obtained among patients with active HCC. Studies conducted in this perspective concluded that HCC status does not influence the likelihood to obtain SVR with DAAs, making DAAs appropriate in HCC-active patients. As far as survival is concerned, recent studies conducted in cirrhotic HCV-related early-stage HCC found that DAAs improved overall survival, a benefit probably due to the reduction of hepatic decompensation.

Barthel Index Score Predicts Mortality in Elderly Heart Failure - A Goal of Comprehensive Cardiac Rehabilitation

BACKGROUND

A strategy to predict mortality in elderly heart failure (HF) patients has not been established.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We retrospectively enrolled 413 HF patients aged ≥65 years (mean age 78 years) who had received comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation (CR) during hospitalization. Basic activities of daily life were assessed before discharge using the Barthel index (BI). Of 413 HF patients, 116 (28%) died during a median follow-up period of 1.90 years (interquartile range 1.20-3.23 years). An adjusted dose-dependent association analysis showed that the hazard ratio (HR) of mortality increased in an almost linear manner as the BI score decreased, and that a BI score of 85 corresponded to an HR of 1.0. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the survival rate was lower for patients with a low BI (<85) than for those with a high BI (≥85; 65% vs. 74%, respectively; P=0.007). In multivariate Cox regression analyses, low BI was independently associated with higher mortality after adjusting for predictors, including B-type natriuretic peptide. Inclusion of the BI into the adjusted model improved the accuracy of the prediction of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

A BI score <85 at the time of discharge is associated with increased mortality independent of known prognostic markers, and achieving functional status with a BI score ≥85 by comprehensive CR during hospitalization may contribute to favorable outcomes in elderly HF patients.

Propensity score-integrated Bayesian prior approaches for augmented control designs: a simulation study

Drug development can be costly, and the availability of clinical trial participants may be limited either due to the disease setting (rare or pediatric diseases) or due to many sponsors evaluating multiple drugs or combinations in the same patient population. To maximize resource utilization, sponsors may leverage patient-level control data from historical trials. However, in a study with no control arm, it is impossible to evaluate if the historical controls are an appropriate comparator for the current study. Here, instead of conducting a single-arm trial and relying solely on historical controls, we evaluate the situation where a minimal number of patients are enrolled into a control arm, which is augmented by borrowing historical control data. Propensity score (PS) methods are commonly used to minimize bias for non-randomized data. In addition, Bayesian information borrowing with PS adjustments has been proposed when it may not be reasonable to include all available historical data. This paper proposes using PS adjustment integrated with Bayesian commensurate priors to adaptively borrow information. We then evaluate the performance of different PS adjustment methods and different Bayesian priors for augmented control using simulation studies to help inform the design of future trials. In general, we find that propensity weighting or matching combined with the commensurate prior yield reasonable statistical properties across a range of scenarios. Finally, our proposed methods are applied to a real trial with a binary outcome.Abbreviations: PS: propensity score; IPTW: inverse probability of treatment weighting; ATT: average treatment effect on those who received treatment; RCT: randomized controlled trial; CDD: covariate distribution difference; ESS: effective sample size.

Pneumococcal vaccination prevented severe LRTIs in adults: a causal inference framework applied in registry data

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the effect of pneumococcal vaccination (PV) on acute lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in various age and risk groups using different methods within a causal inference methodological framework.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We used data from a general practitioners' morbidity registry for the year 2019. Both traditional statistical methods (regression-based and propensity score methods) and machine learning techniques were deployed. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing data. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to account for the severity of LRTIs and differences in vaccination registration.

RESULTS

All methods showed a standardized mean difference below 0.1 for each covariate. No method was found to be superior to another. PV (combination of conjugate and polysaccharide vaccine) had an overall protective effect for severe LRTIs. PV was protective in different age and risk groups, especially in people aged 50-84 years with an intermediate risk group.

CONCLUSION

Using several techniques, PV was found to prevent severe LRTIs and confirmed the recommendations of the Belgian Superior Health Council.

Six-month outcomes and effect of pulmonary rehabilitation among patients hospitalized with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients appear to maintain sequelae post-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) affecting daily life and physical health. We investigated the changes in and the effects of pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) on exercise capacity and immunology six months after COVID-19 hospitalization.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort reviewed 233 COVID-19 patients admitted from 17 January 2020 to 29 February 2020. Ninety-eight patients who completed 2-week and 6-month follow-ups and tests were included. Among 98 patients, 27 completed at least five sessions of PR at the First Hospital of Changsha, China, during the 6-month convalescence were allocated to the PR group; the reminder who had not performed any PR were assigned to the control group. The primary outcome was the change in six-minute walk distance (6-MWD) between the 2-week and 6-month follow-ups, which was assessed via analysis of covariance with a covariate of propensity score that adjusted for the potential confounders. Secondary outcomes were the changes in 6-MWD, SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulins, T-lymphocytes and blood chemistry, which were evaluated via paired tests.

RESULTS

Participants' ages ranged from 19 to 84 years (M = 47, standard deviation (SD)=15) 45.9% identified as male. During the 6-month convalescence, 6-MWD increased 27.0%, with a mean [95% CI] of 113 [92-134] m (p < .001). SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM decreased 33.3% (p = .002) and 43.8% (p = .009), CD4+ T cells increased 7.9% (p = .04), and the majority of blood chemistry significantly changed. The patients in the PR group acquired a greater increase in 6-MWD than those in control (unadjusted, 194 [167-221] m, p < .001; adjusted, 123 [68-181] m, p < .001), dose-responsiveness of PR on 6-MWD was observed (p < .001). No differences in immunity variables and blood chemistry were observed between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest PR may be a strategy to promote the improvement of exercise capacity after COVID-19.

CZT camera systems may provide better risk stratification for low-risk patients

BACKGROUND

The photon sensitivity and spatial resolution of single-photon emission-computed tomography (SPECT) has been significantly improved by solid-state camera systems using cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) detectors. While the diagnostic accuracy of these systems is well established, there is little evidence directly comparing the prognostic utility to conventional NaI cameras.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Retrospective analysis of patients undergoing SPECT between 2008 and 2012. Visual SPECT assessment was performed utilizing the 17-segment model to determine summed stress scores (SSS). We identified 12,830 consecutive patients, mean age 63.2 ± 13.7 and 56.1% male, 5072 of whom underwent CZT and 7758 NaI imaging. During a median follow-up duration of 7.0 years (IQR 5.5-8.2), a total of 2788 (21.7%) patients died. Compared to SSS 0, minimal perfusion abnormality (SSS 1-3) was associated with increased all-cause mortality with CZT camera (adjusted HR 1.32, P = .017) and NaI camera (adjusted HR 1.29, P = .001, interaction P = .803). Increasing stress abnormality was associated with a similar increase in risk with CZT or NaI imaging (interaction P > .500). In a propensity matched analysis, patients with normal perfusion stress perfusion assessed with a CZT was associated with decreased mortality compared to normal perfusion assessed by a NaI camera system (hazard ratio .88, 95% CI .78-.99, P = .040).

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing stress perfusion abnormality was associated with similar increase in all-cause mortality with CZT or NaI cameras. CZT and NaI camera systems provide similar risk stratification, however, normal myocardial perfusion may be associated with a more benign prognosis when assessed with a CZT camera system.

Outcomes of Implementing in the Real World the Women's Health CoOp Intervention in Cape Town, South Africa

Women in South Africa living with HIV who use alcohol may not adhere to ART, affecting the country’s 90-90-90 targets. The Women’s Health CoOp (WHC), a woman-focused HIV intervention, has shown efficacy in numerous trials with key populations of women in South Africa who use alcohol and drugs. In a hybrid implementation effectiveness study, the WHC was implemented in usual care clinics by healthcare providers in a modified stepped-wedge design. We present the outcomes of alcohol use and ART adherence with 480 women, with a 95% 6-month follow-up rate across 4 implementation cycles. Compared with the first cycle, women in the fourth cycle were significantly less likely (OR = 0.10 [95% CI 0.04, 0.24]) to report alcohol use disorder risk and were 4 times more likely (OR = 4.16 [95% CI 1.05, 16.51]) to report ART adherence at 6-month follow-up. Overall, acceptability and satisfaction were extremely high. The WHC intervention was successful in reaching key populations of women to reduce alcohol use and increase ART adherence, which is essential for South Africa to reach the 90-90-90 goals.

Strategies for Mechanical Right Ventricular Support during Left Ventricular Assist Device Implant

BACKGROUND

Refractory right ventricular failure at the time of left ventricular assist device implantation requires treatment with supplemental mechanical circulatory support. However, the optimal strategy for support remains unknown.

METHODS

All patients undergoing first time durable left ventricular assist device implantation with a contemporary device were selected from the national Society of Thoracic Surgeons Database (2011-2019). Patients requiring right ventricular assist device (RVAD) or venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) were included in the analysis. Patients were stratified by RVAD or VA-ECMO and by timing of placement (intraoperative vs. postoperative).

RESULTS

18,423 left ventricular assist device implants were identified, of which 940 (5.1%) required RVAD (n=750) or VA-ECMO (n=190) support. Patients receiving an RVAD more frequently had preoperative inotrope requirement (76% vs. 62%, p<0.01) and severe tricuspid regurgitation (20% vs. 13%, p<0.01). RVAD patients experienced lower rates of postoperative renal failure (40% vs. 51%, p=0.02) and limb ischemia (4% vs. 13%, p<0.01), as well as significantly less operative mortality (41% vs. 54%, p<0.01). After risk-adjustment with propensity score analysis, support with VA-ECMO was associated with a higher risk of mortality (Risk Ratio 1.46 [1.21-1.77], p<0.01) compared to patients receiving an RVAD. Importantly, institution of right ventricular support postoperatively was associated with higher mortality (1.43, p<0.01) compared to intraoperative initiation.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with severe right ventricular failure in the setting of durable left ventricular assist device implantation may benefit from the use of RVAD over VA-ECMO. Regardless of the type of support, initiation at the index operation was associated with improved outcomes.

Evaluating the performance of propensity score matching based approaches in individual patient data meta-analysis

Background

Individual-patient data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) is an increasingly popular approach because of its analytical benefits. IPD-MA of observational studies must overcome the problem of confounding, otherwise biased estimates of treatment effect may be obtained. One approach to reducing confounding bias could be the use of propensity score matching (PSM). IPD-MA can be considered as two-stage clustered data (patients within studies) and propensity score matching can be implemented within studies, across studies, and combining both.

Methods

This article focuses on implementation of four PSM-based approaches for the analysis of data structure that exploit IPD-MA in two ways: (i) estimation of propensity score model using single-level or random-effects logistic regression; and (ii) matching of propensity scores (PS) across studies, within studies or preferential-within studies. We investigated the performance of these approaches through a simulation study, which considers an IPD-MA that examined the success of different treatments for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). The simulation parameters were varied according to three treatment prevalences (according to studies, 50% and 30%), three levels of heterogeneity between studies (low, moderate and high) and three levels of pooled odds ratio (1, 1.5, 3).

Results

All approaches showed greater biases at the higher levels of heterogeneity regardless of the choices of treatment prevalences. However, matching of propensity scores using within-study and preferential-within study reported better performance compared to matching across studies when treatment prevalence varied across-studies. For fixed prevalences, a random-effect propensity score model to estimate propensity scores followed by matching of propensity scores across-studies achieved lower biases compared to other PSM-based approaches.

Conclusions

Propensity score matching has wide application in health research while only limited literature is available on the implementation of PSM methods in IPD-MA, and until now methodological performance of PSM methods have not been examined. We believe, this work offers an intuition to the applied researcher for the choice of the PSM-based approaches.

The Effects of Smoking on Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components Using Causal Methods in the Iranian Population

Background

The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of smoking on metabolic syndrome (MS) and its components applying inverse probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) and propensity score (PS) matching.

Methods

Using data from Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, 4857 participants aged over 20 years with information on smoking and confounders in the third phase (2005-2008) were included, and the MS was assessed in the fifth phase (2011-2014). IPTW and PS matching were used to adjust for confounders.

Results

Based on average treatment effect (ATE) estimates, smoking decreased the risk of hypertension (RR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.43, 0.88), but increased the risk of low HDL cholesterol (1.20; 0.98, 1.48). Similarly, the average treatment effect in the treated (ATT) estimates using IPTW and PS matching suggested that smoking decreased the risk of hypertension (0.63; 0.52, 0.76, and 0.68; 0.54, 0.85), and increased the risk of low HDL cholesterol (1.24; 1.07, 1.43, and 1.28; 1.06, 1.54), respectively.

Conclusions

Smoking seems to increase the risk of low HDL cholesterol but decreases the risk of hypertension.

Overall survival after surgical staging by lymph node dissection versus sentinel lymph node biopsy in endometrial cancer: a national cancer database study

OBJECTIVE

Substituting lymphadenectomy with sentinel lymph node biopsy for staging purposes in endometrial cancer has raised concerns about incomplete nodal resection and detrimental oncological outcomes. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between the type of lymph node assessment and overall survival in endometrial cancer accounting for node status and histology.

METHODS

Women with stage I-III endometrial cancer who underwent hysterectomy and lymph node assessment from January 2012 to December 2015 were identified in the National Cancer Database. Patients who underwent neoadjuvant therapy, had previous cancer, and whose follow-up was less than 90 days were excluded. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to assess factors associated with overall survival.

RESULTS

Of 68 614 patients, 64 796 (94.4%) underwent lymphadenectomy, 1777 (2.6%) underwent sentinel node biopsy only, and 2041 (3.0%) underwent both procedures. On multivariable analysis, neither sentinel lymph node biopsy alone nor sentinel node biopsy followed by lymphadenectomy was associated with significantly different overall survival compared with lymphadenectomy alone (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.17, and HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.08, respectively). When stratified by lymph node status, sentinel node biopsy alone or followed by lymphadenectomy was not associated with different overall survival, both in patients with negative (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.24, and HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.27, respectively) or positive (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.52, and HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.04, respectively) lymph nodes. These findings held true when sentinel node biopsy alone and sentinel node biopsy plus lymphadenectomy groups were merged, and on stratification by histotype (type one vs type 2) or inclusion of only complete lymphadenectomy (at least 10 pelvic nodes and at least one para-aortic node removed). In all analyses, age, Charlson-Deyo score, black race, AJCC pathological T stage, grade, lymphovascular invasion, brachytherapy, and adjuvant chemotherapy were independently associated with overall survival.

DISCUSSION

No difference in overall survival was found in patients with endometrial cancer who underwent sentinel node biopsy alone, sentinel node biopsy followed by lymphadenectomy, or lymphadenectomy alone. This observation remained regardless of node status, histotype, and lymphadenectomy extent.

Factors associated with psychiatric admission and subsequent self-harm repetition: a cohort study of high-risk hospital-presenting self-harm

BACKGROUND

Individuals presenting to hospital with self-harm of high lethality or high suicidal intent are at high risk of subsequent suicide.

AIM

To examine factors associated with psychiatric admission and self-harm repetition following high-risk self-harm (HRSH).

METHOD

A cohort study of 324 consecutive HRSH patients was conducted across three urban hospitals (December 2014-February 2018). Information on self-harm repetition was extracted from the National Self-harm Registry Ireland. Logistic regression models examined predictors of psychiatric admission and self-harm repetition. Propensity score (PS) methods were used to address confounding.

RESULTS

Forty percent of the cohort were admitted to a psychiatric inpatient setting. Factors associated with admission were living alone, depression, previous psychiatric admission, suicide note and uncommon self-harm methods. History of emotional, physical or sexual abuse was associated with not being admitted. Twelve-month self-harm repetition occurred in 17.3% of cases. Following inverse probability weighting according to the PS, psychiatric admission following HRSH was not associated with repetition. Predictors of repetition were recent self-harm history, young age (18-24 years) and previous psychiatric admission.

CONCLUSION(S)

Findings indicate that psychiatric admission following HRSH is not associated with repeated self-harm and reaffirms the consistent finding that history of self-harm and psychiatric treatment are strong predictors of repetition.

Trends in Pediatric Appendicitis and Imaging Strategies During Covid-19 in the United States

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To determine if, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, 1) the proportion of complicated appendicitis changed, and 2) if imaging strategies for appendicitis in children changed.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective cross-sectional study using administrative data from the Pediatric Health Information System, inclusive of pediatric patients diagnosed with appendicitis from March to May in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. We compared trends during COVID-19 pandemic (March-May 2020) with corresponding pre-COVID-19 periods in 2017-201.9 Study outcomes were the proportion of complicated appendicitis and trends in imaging for appendicitis explained by patient-level variables.

RESULTS

The proportion of complicated appendicitis cases increased by 4.4 percentage points, from 46.5% pre-COVID-19 (2017-2019) to 50.9% during COVID-19 (2020), p < 0.001. Mean count of uncomplicated acute appendicitis cases decreased from pre-COVID-19 to the 2020 COVID-19 period (2017: n = 2555; 2018: n = 2679; 2019: n = 2722; 2020: n = 2231). Mean count of complicated appendicitis was unchanged between study periods (2017: n = 2189; 2018: n = 2302, 2019: n = 2442; 2020: n = 2311). Imaging approaches were largely unchanged between study periods; ultrasound was the most utilized modality in both study periods (68.3%, 70.2%; p = 0.033).

CONCLUSION

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of complicated appendicitis cases increased without an absolute increase in the number of complicated appendicitis cases, but instead a decrease in the number of uncomplicated acute appendicitis diagnoses.

Adherence to Antiretroviral Treatment Among People Who Started Treatment on the Same-Day of HIV Diagnosis in Ethiopia: A Multicenter Observational Study

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Minimally Invasive Versus Open Pancreatectomy for Right-Sided and Left-Sided G1/G2 Nonfunctioning Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: A Multicenter Matched Analysis with an Inverse Probability of Treatment-Weighting Method

BACKGROUND

Limited evidence exists for the safety and oncologic efficacy of minimally invasive surgery (MIS) for nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-PNETs) according to tumor location. This study aimed to compare the surgical outcomes of MIS and open surgery (OS) for right- or left-sided NF-PNETs.

METHODS

The study collected data on patients who underwent surgical resection (pancreatoduodenectomy, distal/total/central pancreatectomy, duodenum-preserving pancreas head resection, or enucleation) of a localized NF-PNET between January 2000 and July 2017 at 14 institutions. The inverse probability of treatment-weighting method with propensity scores was used for analysis.

RESULTS

The study enrolled 859 patients: 478 OS and 381 MIS patients. A matched analysis by tumor location showed no differences in resection margin, intraoperative blood loss, or complications between MIS and OS. However, MIS was associated with a longer operation time for right-sided tumors (393.3 vs 316.7 min; P < 0.001) and a shorter postoperative hospital stay for left-sided tumors (8.9 vs 12.9 days; P < 0.01). The MIS group was associated with significantly higher survival rates than the OS group for right- and left-sided tumors, but survival did not differ for the patients divided by tumor grade and location. Multivariable analysis showed that MIS did not affect survival for any tumor location.

CONCLUSION

The short-term outcomes offered by MIS were comparable with those of OS except for a longer operation time for right-sided NF-PNETs. The oncologic outcomes were not compromised by MIS regardless of tumor location or grade. These findings suggest that MIS can be performed safely for selected patients with localized NF-PNETs.

Influence of tranexamic acid use on venous thromboembolism risk in patients undergoing surgery for spine tumors

OBJECTIVE

Patients with spine tumors are at increased risk for both hemorrhage and venous thromboembolism (VTE). Tranexamic acid (TXA) has been advanced as a potential intervention to reduce intraoperative blood loss in this surgical population, but many fear it is associated with increased VTE risk due to the hypercoagulability noted in malignancy. In this study, the authors aimed to 1) develop a clinical calculator for postoperative VTE risk in the population with spine tumors, and 2) investigate the association of intraoperative TXA use and postoperative VTE.

METHODS

A retrospective data set from a comprehensive cancer center was reviewed for adult patients treated for vertebral column tumors. Data were collected on surgery performed, patient demographics and medical comorbidities, VTE prophylaxis measures, and TXA use. TXA use was classified as high-dose (≥ 20 mg/kg) or low-dose (< 20 mg/kg). The primary study outcome was VTE occurrence prior to discharge. Secondary outcomes were deep venous thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors for VTE and the resultant model was deployed as a web-based calculator.

RESULTS

Three hundred fifty patients were included. The mean patient age was 57 years, 53% of patients were male, and 67% of surgeries were performed for spinal metastases. TXA use was not associated with increased VTE (14.3% vs 10.1%, p = 0.37). After multivariable analysis, VTE was independently predicted by lower serum albumin (odds ratio [OR] 0.42 per g/dl, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.23-0.79, p = 0.007), larger mean corpuscular volume (OR 0.91 per fl, 95% CI 0.84-0.99, p = 0.035), and history of prior VTE (OR 2.60, 95% CI 1.53-4.40, p < 0.001). Longer surgery duration approached significance and was included in the final model. Although TXA was not independently associated with the primary outcome of VTE, high-dose TXA use was associated with increased odds of both DVT and PE. The VTE model showed a fair fit of the data with an area under the curve of 0.77.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present cohort of patients treated for vertebral column tumors, TXA was not associated with increased VTE risk, although high-dose TXA (≥ 20 mg/kg) was associated with increased odds of DVT or PE. Additionally, the web-based clinical calculator of VTE risk presented here may prove useful in counseling patients preoperatively about their individualized VTE risk.

The impact of child psychiatric conditions on future educational outcomes among a community cohort in Brazil

AIMS

Mental health problems early in life can negatively impact educational attainment, which in turn have negative long-term effects on health, social and economic opportunities. Our aims were to: (i) estimate the impacts of different types of psychiatric conditions on educational outcomes and (ii) to estimate the proportion of adverse educational outcomes which can be attributed to psychiatric conditions.

METHODS

Participants (N = 2511) were from a school-based community cohort of Brazilian children and adolescents aged 6-14 years enriched for high family risk of psychiatric conditions. We examined the impact of fear- (panic, separation and social anxiety disorder, specific phobia, agoraphobia and anxiety conditions not otherwise specified), distress- (generalised anxiety disorder, major depressive disorder and depressive disorder not otherwise specified, bipolar, obsessive-compulsive, tic, eating and post-traumatic stress disorder) and externalising-related conditions (attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder, conduct and oppositional-defiant conditions) on grade repetition, dropout, age-grade distortion, literacy performance and bullying perpetration, 3 years later. Psychiatric conditions were ascertained by psychiatrists, using the Development and Well-Being Behaviour Assessment. Propensity score and inverse probability weighting were used to adjust for potential confounders, including comorbidity, and sample attrition. We calculated the population attributable risk percentages to estimate the proportion of adverse educational outcomes in the population which could be attributed to psychiatric conditions. Analyses were conducted separately for males and females.

RESULTS

Fear and distress conditions in males were associated with school dropout (odds ratio (OR) = 2.76; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06, 7.22; p < 0.05) and grade repetition (OR = 2.76; 95% CI = 1.32, 5.78; p < 0.01), respectively. Externalising conditions were associated with grade repetition in males (OR = 1.66; 95% CI = 1.05, 2.64; p < 0.05) and females (OR = 2.03; 95% CI = 1.15, 3.58; p < 0.05), as well as age-grade distortion in males (OR = 1.66; 95% CI = 1.05, 2.62; p < 0.05) and females (OR = 2.88; 95% CI = 1.61, 5.14; p < 0.001). Externalising conditions were also associated with lower literacy levels (β = -0.23; 95% CI = -0.34, -0.12; p < 0.001) and bullying perpetration (OR = 3.12; 95% CI = 1.50, 6.51; p < 0.001) in females. If all externalising conditions were prevented or treated, we estimate that 5.0 and 4.8% of grade repetition would not have occurred in females and males, respectively, as well as 10.2 (females) and 5.3% (males) of age-grade distortion cases and 11.4% of female bullying perpetration.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides evidence of the negative impact of psychiatric conditions on educational outcomes in a large Brazilian cohort. Externalising conditions had the broadest and most robust negative impacts on education and these were particularly harmful to females which are likely to limit future socio-economic opportunities.

Association of Tramadol vs Codeine Prescription Dispensation With Mortality and Other Adverse Clinical Outcomes

IMPORTANCE

Although tramadol is increasingly used to manage chronic noncancer pain, few safety studies have compared it with other opioids.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the associations of tramadol, compared with codeine, with mortality and other adverse clinical outcomes as used in outpatient settings.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective, population-based, propensity score-matched cohort study using a primary care database with routinely collected medical records and pharmacy dispensations covering more than 80% of the population of Catalonia, Spain (≈6 million people). Patients 18 years or older with 1 or more year of available data and dispensation of tramadol or codeine (2007-2017) were included and followed up to December 31, 2017.

EXPOSURES

New prescription dispensation of tramadol or codeine (no dispensation in the previous year).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Outcomes studied were all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, fractures, constipation, delirium, falls, opioid abuse/dependence, and sleep disorders within 1 year after the first dispensation. Absolute rate differences (ARDs) and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using cause-specific Cox models.

RESULTS

Of the 1 093 064 patients with a tramadol or codeine dispensation during the study period (326 921 for tramadol, 762 492 for codeine, 3651 for both drugs concomitantly), a total of 368 960 patients (184 480 propensity score-matched pairs) were included after study exclusions and propensity score matching (mean age, 53.1 [SD, 16.1] years; 57.3% women). Compared with codeine, tramadol dispensation was significantly associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality (incidence, 13.00 vs 5.61 per 1000 person-years; HR, 2.31 [95% CI, 2.08-2.56]; ARD, 7.37 [95% CI, 6.09-8.78] per 1000 person-years), cardiovascular events (incidence, 10.03 vs 8.67 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.05-1.27]; ARD, 1.36 [95% CI, 0.45-2.36] per 1000 person-years), and fractures (incidence, 12.26 vs 8.13 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.37-1.65]; ARD, 4.10 [95% CI, 3.02-5.29] per 1000 person-years). No significant difference was observed for the risk of falls, delirium, constipation, opioid abuse/dependence, or sleep disorders.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this population-based cohort study, a new prescription dispensation of tramadol, compared with codeine, was significantly associated with a higher risk of subsequent all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and fractures, but there was no significant difference in the risk of constipation, delirium, falls, opioid abuse/dependence, or sleep disorders. The findings should be interpreted cautiously, given the potential for residual confounding.

Hematoma Expansion and Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Factor-Xa Inhibitor-Related Atraumatic Intracerebral Hemorrhage Treated Within the ANNEXA-4 Trial Versus Real-World Usual Care

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

It is unestablished whether andexanet alfa, compared with guideline-based usual care including prothrombin complex concentrates, is associated with reduced hematoma expansion (HE) and mortality in patients with factor-Xa inhibitor-related intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We compared the occurrence of HE and clinical outcomes in patients treated either with andexanet alfa or with usual care during the acute phase of factor-Xa inhibitor-related ICH.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the multicenter, prospective, single-arm ANNEXA-4 trial (Andexanet Alfa, a Novel Antidote to the Anticoagulation Effects of Factor Xa Inhibitors) and a multicenter observational cohort study, RETRACE-II (German-Wide Multicenter Analysis of Oral Anticoagulant-Associated Intracerebral Hemorrhage - Part Two). HE was based on computed tomography scans performed within 36 hours from baseline imaging. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was performed to adjust for baseline comorbidities and ICH severity. Patients presenting with atraumatic ICH while receiving apixaban or rivaroxaban within 18 hours of admission were included. Patients with secondary ICH or not fulfilling the inclusion criteria for the ANNEXA-4 trial were excluded. We compared ANNEXA-4 patients, who received andexanet alfa for hemostatic treatment, with RETRACE-II patients who were treated with usual care, primarily administration of prothrombin complex concentrates. Primary outcome was rate of HE defined as relative increase of ≥35%. Secondary outcomes comprised mean absolute change in hematoma volume, as well as in-hospital mortality and functional outcome.

RESULTS

Overall, 182 patients with factor-Xa inhibitor-related ICH (85 receiving andexanet alfa versus 97 receiving usual care) were selected for analysis. There were no relevant differences regarding demographic or clinical characteristics between both groups. HE occurred in 11 of 80 (14%) andexanet alfa patients compared with 21 of 67 (36%) usual care patients (adjusted relative risk, 0.40 [95% CI, 0.20-0.78]; P=0.005), with a reduction in mean overall hematoma volume change of 7 mL. There were no statistically significant differences among in-hospital mortality or functional outcomes. Sensitivity analysis including only usual care patients receiving prothrombin complex concentrates demonstrated consistent results.

CONCLUSIONS

As compared with usual care, andexanet alfa was associated with a lower rate of HE in atraumatic factor-Xa inhibitor-related ICH, however, without translating into significantly improved clinical outcomes. A comparative trial is needed to confirm the benefit on limiting HE and to explore clinical outcomes across patient subgroups and by time to treatment.

Expansion of insurance under the affordable care act and invasive management of acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

The Affordable Care Act of 2010 extended health insurance through expansion of Medicaid and subsidies for commercial insurance. Prior work has produced differing results in associating expanded insurance with improvements in health care processes and outcomes. Evaluating specific mechanisms of care processes and their association with insurance expansion may help reconcile those results.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used inpatient hospitalization data in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality from 1/1/2008 to 9/30/2015. We included all hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). As a primary outcome, we defined percent rate of AMI hospitalizations receiving percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) per month. In the non-Medicare (intervention) group, there was a relative decrease of 0.2% of the monthly trend before and after expansion (95% CI [-0.3%, -0.1%]). In the Medicare group, there was a relative decrease of 0.1% of the monthly trend before and after expansion (95% CI [-0.2%, 0%]).

CONCLUSIONS

We did not detect a relative difference in PCI for AMI associated with insurance expansion under health reform.

Stress cardiomyopathy in hospitalized patients with cancer: machine learning analysis by primary malignancy type

Aims

Previous studies have shown that patients with stress (Takotsubo) cardiomyopathy (SC) and cancer have higher in‐hospital mortality than patients with SC alone. No studies have examined outcomes in patients with active cancer and SC compared to patients with active cancer without SC. We aimed to assess the potential association between primary malignancy type and SC and their shared interaction with inpatient mortality.

Methods and results

We analysed SC by primary malignancy type with propensity score adjusted multivariable regression and machine learning analysis using the 2016 United States National Inpatient Sample. Of 30 195 722 adult hospitalized patients, 4 719 591 had active cancer, of whom 568 239 had SC. The mean age of patients with cancer and SC was 69.1, of which 74.7% were women. Among patients with cancer, those with SC were more likely to be female and have white race, Medicare insurance, hypertension, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, obesity, cerebrovascular disease, anaemia, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P < 0.003 for all). In machine learning‐augmented, propensity score multivariable regression adjusted for age, race, and income, only lung cancer [OR 1.25; 95% CI: 1.08–1.46; P = 0.003] and breast cancer [OR 1.81; 95% CI: 1.62–2.02; P < 0.001] were associated with a significantly increased likelihood of SC. Neither SC alone nor having both SC and cancer was significantly associated with in‐hospital mortality. The presence of concomitant SC and breast cancer was significantly associated with reduced mortality (OR 0.48; 95% CI: 0.25–0.94; P = 0.032).

Conclusions

This analysis demonstrates that primary malignancy type influences the likelihood of developing SC. Further studies will be necessary to delineate characteristics in patients with lung cancer and breast cancer which contribute to development of SC. Additional investigation should confirm lower mortality in patients with SC and breast cancer and determine possible explanations and protective factors.

Preexisting Clinical Frailty Is Associated With Worse Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Sepsis

OBJECTIVES

Frailty is a multidimensional syndrome or state of increased vulnerability to poor resolution of homoeostasis following a stressor event. Frailty is common in patients with sepsis. Sepsis and frailty are both associated with older age and chronic medical conditions. However, there is limited evidence about the direct association between frailty and sepsis. The aim of this study is to determine the association between preexisting clinical frailty and clinical outcomes in patients with sepsis.

DESIGN

A nationwide propensity score-matched cohort study analyzing data prospectively collected between September 2019 and February 2020.

SETTING

Nineteen tertiary or university-affiliated hospitals in South Korea.

PATIENTS

Adult patients who were diagnosed with sepsis.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Frailty status was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale. All patients were classified as "frail" (Clinical Frailty Scale score, 5-9) or "nonfrail" (Clinical Frailty Scale score, 1-4). Propensity score matching identified comparable nonfrail patients. The primary outcome was inhospital mortality. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between frailty and inhospital mortality. The propensity score-matched cohort comprised 468 nonfrail patients and 468 frail patients; all covariate imbalances were alleviated. In the matched cohort (mean age, 69 ± 14 yr), 27.2% had septic shock at presentation. Inhospital mortality was 34.2% in the frail group and 26.9% in the nonfrail group (p = 0.019). The adjusted odds ratio for inhospital mortality in the frail group compared with the nonfrail group was 2.00 (95% CI, 1.39-2.89; p < 0.001). Among the patients who survived to discharge, the frail group was less likely to be discharged home compared with the nonfrail group, 64.0% versus 81.3%, respectively (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with sepsis, preexisting clinical frailty is associated with worse clinical outcomes than that in nonfrail patients, including inhospital mortality and discharge to home.

A Methodological Approach for Evaluating the Enterprise Community Healthy Start Program in Rural Georgia: An Analysis Using Linked PRAMS, Birth Records and Program Data

INTRODUCTION

Community Healthy Start program evaluations are often limited by a lack of robust data and rigorous study designs. This study describes an enhanced methodological approach using local program data linked with existing population-level datasets for external comparison to evaluate the Enterprise Community Healthy Start (ECHS) program in two rural Georgia counties and presents results from the evaluation.

METHODS

ECHS program data were linked to birth records and the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) for 869 women who delivered a live birth in Burke and McDuffie counties from 2010 to 2011. Multivariate logistic regressions with and without propensity score methods modeled the association between ECHS participation and maternal health indicators and pregnancy outcomes.

RESULTS

107 ECHS participants and 726 non-participants responded to PRAMS and met eligibility criteria. Compared with non-participants, ECHS participants were younger, completed fewer years of education, and were more likely to be non-Hispanic Black, unmarried, insured with Medicaid, participating in WIC, and having an unintended pregnancy. Models with and without propensity score weighting derived similar results: there was a positive association between ECHS participation and receiving adequate or adequate plus prenatal care (p < 0.05); no statistically significant associations were observed between ECHS participation and any other health behaviors, health care access and utilization measures or pregnancy outcomes.

DISCUSSION

Rigorous evaluation of a local Healthy Start program using linked PRAMS and birth records with a population-based external comparison group and propensity score methods is an enhanced and feasible approach that can be applied in other local and state jurisdictions.

Effects of Septal Reduction Therapy on Acute Cardiovascular Events and All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

Septal reduction therapy (SRT) -i.e. septal myectomy and alcohol septal ablation-has been performed to treat medically refractory hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) for decades. However, it is largely unknown whether SRT prevents HCM-related cardiovascular events or death. The objective was to examine the effects of SRT on acute cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in HCM. We performed a propensity score (PS) -matched study using databases that capture all hospitalizations and outpatient visits in New York state. We identified patients with HCM who underwent SRT between 2007 and 2014 (i.e. the SRT group) and those who had never had SRT but had at least one hospitalization for HCM during the same period (i.e. the control group). We performed PS matching at a 1:1 ratio. The primary outcome was a composite of acute cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality during 0-180 days and 181-360 days. The secondary outcome was 180- and 360-day all-cause mortality. We included 846 patients with HCM (423 PS-matched pairs). Patients who underwent SRT had a lower risk of the primary outcome event (0-180 days: odds ratio [OR], 0.54; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.37-0.80; P = 0.002 and 181-360 days: OR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.22-0.51; P < 0.0001). Furthermore, the risk of all-cause mortality was lower at 180 days (OR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.22-0.63; P = 0.0003) and 360 days post-SRT (OR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.20-0.51; P < 0.0001). In conclusion, our PS-matched study using population-based datasets demonstrated that SRT was associated with a reduced risk of a composite of acute cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in HCM during the first post-SRT year.

External Validation of the SYNTAX Score II 2020

BACKGROUND

The SYNTAX score II 2020 (SSII-2020) was derived from cross correlation and externally validated in randomized trials to predict death and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACE) following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with 3-vessel disease (3VD) and/or left main coronary artery disease (LMCAD).

OBJECTIVES

The authors aimed to investigate the SSII-2020's value in identifying the safest modality of revascularization in a non-randomized setting.

METHODS

Five-year mortality and MACE were assessed in 7,362 patients with 3VD and/or LMCAD enrolled in a Japanese PCI/CABG registry. The discriminative abilities of the SSII-2020 were assessed using Harrell's C statistic. Agreement between observed and predicted event rates following PCI or CABG and treatment benefit (absolute risk difference [ARD]) for these outcomes were assessed by calibration plots.

RESULTS

The SSII-2020 for 5-year mortality well predicted the prognosis after PCI and CABG (C-index = 0.72, intercept = -0.11, slope = 0.92). When patients were grouped according to the predicted 5-year mortality ARD, <4.5% (equipoise of PCI and CABG) and ≥4.5% (CABG better), the observed mortality rates after PCI and CABG were not significantly different in patients with lower predicted ARD (observed ARD: 2.1% [95% CI: -0.4% to 4.4%]), and the significant difference in survival in favor of CABG was observed in patients with higher predicted ARD (observed ARD: 9.7% [95% CI: 6.1%-13.3%]). For MACE, the SSII-2020 could not recommend a specific treatment with sufficient accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The SSII-2020 for predicting 5-year death has the potential to support decision making on revascularization in patients with 3VD and/or LMCAD.

Dietary patterns and cardiometabolic risks in diverse less-developed ethnic minority regions: results from the China Multi-Ethnic Cohort (CMEC) Study

Background In Western developed countries, food-based dietary patterns have been associated with the risk of cardiometabolic diseases, but little is known about such associations in less developed ethnic minority regions (LEMRs), where the cardiometabolic disease burden is growing rapidly and food patterns differ substantially.

Methods Between May 2018 and September 2019, we recruited 99556 participants aged 30-79 years from the China Multi-Ethnic Cohort (CMEC) Study. We measured habitual dietary intake with validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and then calculated dietary pattern scores for two of the most studied a priori dietary patterns, i.e., Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) and alternative Mediterranean (aMED) style diets, and three a posteriori dietary patterns. Four cardiometabolic risks, including hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia and metabolic syndrome (MetS), were newly diagnosed by medical examination and blood tests. We estimated adjusted odds ratios (OR) relating various dietary pattern scores to cardiometabolic risks using marginal structural models under the guidance of directed acyclic graphs. For the above associations, we further calculated the proportion mediated by overweight (PM) using regression-based mediation analysis for better public health implications.

Findings The final study sample consisted of 68834 participants. Among them, we newly diagnosed 12803 hypertension, 3527 diabetes, 16342 hyperlipidaemia, and 8198 MetS cases. Overall, all 5 dietary patterns showed considerable associations with risks of hypertension and MetS. Comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles, the DASH score showed the strongest inverse associations with risks of hypertension (OR=0.74, 95% CI:0.70-0.79; PM=10%) and MetS (OR=0.79, 95% CI:0.74-0.85; PM=35%); conversely, scores of the localized a posteriori Yunnan-Guizhou plateau dietary pattern in LEMRs showed the strongest positive associations with risks of hypertension (OR=1.44, 95% CI:1.35-1.52; PM=10%) and MetS (OR=1.35, 95% CI:1.26-1.46; PM=33%), with all P values for trend <0.001. These associations were consistent in various subgroups defined by sex, age, smoking and physical activity, but with magnitudes that differed substantially across different ethnic regions and urbanicity. By investigating the single-component effects of dietary patterns, the dairy intake component contributed a major proportion to the beneficial effects of DASH (41.9% for hypertension and 100.5% for MetS).

Interpretation Substantial socioeconomic status and ethnic disparities in diet quality and related cardiometabolic risks were seen in LEMRs, with hypertension being the top diet-related cardiometabolic risk. Our findings support that DASH provides superior dietary guidance compared to aMED for reducing cardiometabolic risks in LEMRs. In particular, the dairy intake encouraged by DASH may produce considerable beneficial effects.

Funding This study was funded by the National Key R&D Program of China; full funding sources listed in the acknowledgements.

Overall Survival of Patients Receiving Cisplatin or Carboplatin for Primary Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder: A Contemporary Dutch Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Cisplatin is preferred to carboplatin when treating metastatic urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (mUCB), despite its greater toxicity. Randomised studies underpinning this have been performed in noncontemporary populations with limitations in sample sizes and analyses, affecting their validity in current clinical practice.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate overall survival (OS) and assess the benefit of cisplatin-based regimens over carboplatin-based regimens in a contemporary cohort of patients with mUCB.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A nationwide retrospective cohort study was conducted in patients diagnosed with de novo mUCB in the Netherlands between 2016 and 2019, who underwent first-line treatment with cisplatin- or carboplatin-based chemotherapy, based on the data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

A propensity model for receiving cisplatin-based chemotherapy based on age, sex, age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, renal function, performance status, serum haemoglobin, and the presence of visceral and bone metastases was used to produce inverse probability weighting (IPW) per patient. Unadjusted and IPW-adjusted Kaplan-Meier OS curves of both chemotherapy groups were compared by restricted mean survival time (RMST).

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Of the 1041 patients with mUCB, 359 received either cisplatin (n = 170; 47%) or carboplatin (n = 189; 53%) as first line. The cisplatin group was younger, had fewer comorbidities, and had better performance status and renal function. The median OS in the cisplatin and carboplatin groups was 13.1 and 11.5 mo, respectively. After IPW adjustment, prognostic factors were balanced between the two chemotherapy groups (standardised differences <0.1), and differences in RMST were <2.0 mo and not statistically significant up to 24 mo.

CONCLUSIONS

After accounting for all known prognostic factors, we found no significant survival benefit for cisplatin over carboplatin as first-line chemotherapy in mUCB.

PATIENT SUMMARY

In this study, we compared the survival benefits of cisplatin- and carboplatin-based chemotherapy for patients with metastatic bladder cancer.