Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions

Analysis of the Government and Capital Market’s Response to Normalized Epidemic Prevention and Control Based on the Development of Smart Health Care

With the continuous prominence of medical problems, the construction of a smart medical system has received more and more attention. With coronavirus disease 2019 in a state of regular prevention and control, the epidemic prevention and control in China had produced favorable effects. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation of the emergency governance mechanism in China was crucial to epidemic prevention and control worldwide. This paper empirically analyzed the effects of epidemic prevention and control based on the dual perspective of epidemic governance and capital market, taking the daily outbreak data at the provincial level in China as the sample. The findings were as follows: (1) The accumulation of epidemic medical treatment experience in each province and city produced a positive emergency effect on preventing and controlling the dissemination of epidemic. The effective medical security mechanism was one of the most important mechanisms for the significant emergency effect, with the effective material security as a critical supplement. (2) Companies and corporations with stronger capabilities for emergency medical treatment received more positive responses from the capital market comparatively. Aiming at diversifying directions and measurements for the improvement of emergency governance, this paper provided theoretical bases for improving the emergency governance system against major public health emergencies by using the Chinese characteristics.

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine allocation inequities: a modeling study

Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically impacted by structural socio-economic inequities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 vaccine inequities in twenty lower middle and low income countries (LMIC) sampled from all WHO regions. We focus on the first critical months of vaccine distribution and administration, exploring counterfactual scenarios where we assume the same per capita daily vaccination rate reported in selected high income countries. We estimate that, in this high vaccine availability scenario, more than 50% of deaths (min-max range: [56% - 99%]) that occurred in the analyzed countries could have been averted. We further consider a scenario where LMIC had similarly early access to vaccine doses as high income countries; even without increasing the number of doses, we estimate an important fraction of deaths (min-max range: [7% - 73%]) could have been averted. In the absence of equitable allocation, the model suggests that considerable additional non-pharmaceutical interventions would have been required to offset the lack of vaccines (min-max range: [15% - 75%]). Overall, our results quantify the negative impacts of vaccines inequities and call for amplified global efforts to provide better access to vaccine programs in low and lower middle income countries.

Modelling the Effect of Vaccination Program and Inter-state Travel in the Spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia

A modified version of the SEIR model with the effects of vaccination and inter-state movement is proposed to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia. A mathematical analysis of the proposed model was performed to derive the basic reproduction number. To enhance the model's forecasting capabilities, the model parameters were estimated using the Nelder-Mead simplex method by fitting the model outputs to the observed data. Our results showed a good fit between the model outputs and available data, where the model was then able to perform short-term predictions. In line with the rapid vaccination program, our model predicted that the COVID-19 cases in the country would decrease by the end of August. Furthermore, our findings indicated that relaxing travel restrictions from a highly vaccinated region to a low vaccinated region would result in an epidemic outbreak.

Changes in Population Health-Related Behaviors During a COVID-19 Surge: A Natural Experiment

Background

The study of impact of lockdowns on individual health-related behaviors has produced divergent results.

Purpose

To identify patterns of change in multiple health-related behaviors analyzed as a whole, and their individual determinants.

Methods

Between March and August 2020, we collected data on smoking, alcohol, physical activity, weight, and sleep in a population-based cohort from Catalonia who had available pre-pandemic data. We performed multiple correspondence and cluster analyses to identify patterns of change in health-related behaviors and built multivariable multinomial logistic regressions to identify determinants of behavioral change.

Results

In 10,032 participants (59% female, mean (SD) age 55 (8) years), 8,606 individuals (86%) modified their behavior during the lockdown. We identified five patterns of behavioral change that were heterogeneous and directed both towards worsening and improvement in diverse combinations. Patterns ranged from “global worsening” (2,063 participants, 21%) characterized by increases in smoking, alcohol consumption, and weight, and decreases in physical activity levels and sleep time, to “improvement” (2,548 participants, 25%) characterized by increases in physical activity levels, decreases in weight and alcohol consumption, and both increases and decreases in sleep time. Being female, of older age, teleworking, having a higher education level, assuming caregiving responsibilities, and being more exposed to pandemic news were associated with changing behavior (all p < .05), but did not discriminate between favorable or unfavorable changes.

Conclusions

Most of the population experienced changes in health-related behavior during lockdowns. Determinants of behavior modification were not explicitly associated with the direction of changes but allowed the identification of older, teleworking, and highly educated women who assumed caregiving responsibilities at home as susceptible population groups more vulnerable to lockdowns.

Modeling approaches for early warning and monitoring of pandemic situations as well as decision support

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the lack of preparedness of many healthcare systems against pandemic situations. In response, many population-level computational modeling approaches have been proposed for predicting outbreaks, spatiotemporally forecasting disease spread, and assessing as well as predicting the effectiveness of (non-) pharmaceutical interventions. However, in several countries, these modeling efforts have only limited impact on governmental decision-making so far. In light of this situation, the review aims to provide a critical review of existing modeling approaches and to discuss the potential for future developments.

PAN-cODE: COVID-19 forecasting using conditional latent ODEs

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused millions of deaths around the world and revealed the need for data-driven models of pandemic spread. Accurate pandemic caseload forecasting allows informed policy decisions on the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce disease transmission. Using COVID-19 as an example, we present Pandemic conditional Ordinary Differential Equation (PAN-cODE), a deep learning method to forecast daily increases in pandemic infections and deaths. By using a deep conditional latent variable model, PAN-cODE can generate alternative caseload trajectories based on alternate adoptions of NPIs, allowing stakeholders to make policy decisions in an informed manner. PAN-cODE also allows caseload estimation for regions that are unseen during model training. We demonstrate that, despite using less detailed data and having fully automated training, PAN-cODE's performance is comparable to state-of-the-art methods on 4-week-ahead and 6-week-ahead forecasting. Finally, we highlight the ability of PAN-cODE to generate realistic alternative outcome trajectories on select US regions.

SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral and cellular immune responses to BNT162b2 vaccine in Fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva patients

Introduction

Fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP) is characterized by progressive heterotopic ossification triggered by various conditions, such as trauma, infection, including COVID-19 infection, and vaccination. Although SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations prevent poor outcomes in the general population, there is limited evidence on safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for inpatients with FOP.

Methods

A case series of two patients with FOP focused on humoral, cellular post-vaccination response, and the incidence of adverse events after administration of the BNT162b2 vaccine (Comirnaty).

Results

Injection site reactions, fever, myalgia, and fatigue were the most common adverse events (AE). Neither severe AE (SAE), nor disease flare-ups were observed. No differences between patients with FOP and healthy controls were observed in humoral and cellular responses.

Conclusions

The BNT162b2 vaccine induced high humoral and cellular response levels in patients with FOP. Vaccination was not associated with SAE or disease relapse. The AEs spectrum was comparable to that of the general population.

Exploring the Impact of Localized COVID-19 Events on Intercity Mobility during the Normalized Prevention and Control Period in China

Uncontrolled, large-scale human mobility can amplify a localized disease into a pandemic. Tracking changes in human travel behavior, exploring the relationship between epidemic events and intercity travel generation and attraction under policies will contribute to epidemic prevention efforts, as well as deepen understanding of the essential changes of intercity interactions in the post-epidemic era. To explore the dynamic impact of small-scale localized epidemic events and related policies on intercity travel, a spatial lag model and improved gravity models are developed by using intercity travel data. Taking the localized COVID-19 epidemic in Xi'an, China as an example, the study constructs the travel interaction characterization before or after the pandemic as well as under constraints of regular epidemic prevention policies, whereby significant impacts of epidemic events are explored. Moreover, indexes of the quantified policies are refined to the city level in China to analyze their effects on travel volumes. We highlight the non-negligible impacts of city events and related policies on intercity interaction, which can serve as a reference for travel management in case of such severe events.

Infectiousness of places - Impact of multiscale human activity places in the transmission of COVID-19

COVID-19 raises attention to epidemic transmission in various places. This study analyzes the transmission risks associated with human activity places at multiple scales, including different types of settlements and eleven types of specific establishments (restaurants, bars, etc.), using COVID-19 data in 906 urban areas across four continents. Through a difference-in-difference approach, we identify the causal effects of activities at various places on epidemic transmission. We find that at the micro-scale, though the transmission risks at different establishments differ across countries, sports, entertainment, and catering establishments are generally more infectious. At the macro-scale, contradicting common beliefs, it is consistent across countries that transmission does not increase with settlement size and density. It is also consistent that specific establishments play a lesser role in transmission in larger settlements, suggesting more transmission happening elsewhere. These findings contribute to building a system of knowledge on the linkage between places, human activities, and disease transmission.

Exposure to images showing (non)adherence to physical distancing rules: Effect on adherence behavior and perceived social norms

Introduction

Adherence to behavioral measures such as physical distancing are key to mitigating the effects of viral pandemics such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Adherence depends in part on people’s perception of what others do (descriptive norms) or approve of (injunctive norms). This study examines the effects that exposure to images depicting people following or breaking physical distancing rules have on perceptions of descriptive and injunctive norms and subsequent adherence behavior.

Methods

An online between-subjects experiment (n = 315) was conducted, in which participants were exposed to a set of five photographs of different public spaces in which people either did or did not adhere to physical distancing rules (pre-registration: https://www.osf.io/uek2p). Participants’ adherence behavior was measured using a triangulation of measures (incentivized online behavioral task, vignettes, intention measure). Perceptions of relevant social norms were also measured.

Results

Mann-Whitney tests showed no effects of condition on perceptions of descriptive and injunctive norms or on adherence behavior. Linear regressions showed that both component paths of the indirect effect (condition on norm perceptions, and norm perceptions on adherence behavior) were non-significant, hence mediation analyses were not conducted.

Conclusions

Exposure to images of people following (compared to breaking) physical distancing rules did not affect adherence to such rules or perceived norms. We surmise that a single exposure to such images, especially in the context of COVID-19, is insufficient to affect behavior. We therefore recommend performing a comparable experiment in which participants are exposed repeatedly to images showing people (non)adhering to a specific behavior in a particular context for a longer period.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and earthquake on mental health of persons with severe mental illness: A survey study among people receiving community mental health care versus treatment as usual in Croatia

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic led to the disruption of mental health services in most countries. Croatia has been developing and strengthening its mental health system, including the introduction of community mental health teams (CMHT) for persons with severe mental illness (SMI), whose implementation was ongoing during the pandemic through the RECOVER-E project.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to assess the differences in mental health outcomes, perceived social support and healthcare utilization in the group of participants receiving treatment as usual (TAU group) compared to the group receiving TAU and additional care by the CMHT (CMHT group) during the COVID-19 pandemic and two earthquakes.

METHOD

This is a cross-sectional survey administered among 90 participants with SMI at two time points: in May/June 2020 (first COVID-19 wave, earthquake) and in December 2020/January 2021 (second COVID-19 wave, earthquake).

RESULTS

A significantly larger proportion of participants from the CMHT group visited the general practitioners in both waves of COVID-19 (first wave: CMHT 72.1%, TAU 44.2%, p = .009; second wave: CMHT 91.1%, TAU 64.1%, p = .003), as well as psychiatric services in the second wave (CMHT 95.3%, TAU 79.5%, p = .028). The use of long-acting injectables was also more frequent in the CMHT group (p = .039). Furthermore, analysis of the first wave showed higher perceived support of significant others (p = .004) in the CMHT group. We did not identify any differences in mental health outcomes between groups in either wave.

CONCLUSIONS

While mental health outcomes did not differ between TAU and CMHT group, people in CMHT used services and treatments more frequently than those in TAU during the pandemic, which may indicate that CMHT services enable the continuity and accessibility of care for people with SMI under the circumstances where standard care is interruped (for example pandemic, disaster conditions).

Living through lockdown: A qualitative exploration of individuals' experiences in the UK

In response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the British government introduced a lockdown resulting in country wide restrictions on movement and socialisation. This research sought to explore individuals' experience of the first lockdown in the UK. A qualitative online survey was conducted between April and June 2020. Using a convenience sample, 29 individuals participated in the study. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Four themes were identified: 'health and well-being', 'social connectedness and belonging', 'employment and finances' and 'personal and collective values'. Participants' experiences involved both challenges and opportunities. Participants reported challenges to their physical health, mental health, sense of connection to others as well as their employment and finances. However, they also viewed the lockdown as an opportunity to reassess their goals and values, and define a 'new normal' for society. Lockdown restrictions threatened individuals' well-being on many aspects of their lives. As anxiety, loneliness and a compromised grieving process may lead to severe mental health issues, early interventions are needed to prevent these and promote well-being. Interventions may include traditional therapies (e.g. Acceptance and Commitment Therapy), or focus specifically on developing social networks and social support (e.g. mutual help groups). These interventions may also be conducive to the experience of growth reported by some participants.

What drives the acceptability of restrictive health policies: An experimental assessment of individual preferences for anti-COVID 19 strategies

The public acceptability of a policy is an important issue in democracies, in particular for anti-COVID-19 policies, which require the adherence of the population to be applicable and efficient. Discrete choice experiment (DCE) can help elicit preference ranking among various policies for the whole population and subgroups. Using a representative sample of the French population, we apply DCE methods to assess the acceptability of various anti-COVID-19 measures, separately and as a package. Owing to the methods, we determine the extent to which acceptability depends on personal characteristics: political orientation, health vulnerability, or age. The young population differs in terms of policy preferences and their claim for monetary compensation, suggesting a tailored policy for them. The paper provides key methodological tools based on microeconomic evaluation of individuals' preferences for improving the design of public health policies.

Has COVID-19 changed carer's views of health and care integration in care homes? A sentiment difference-in-difference analysis of on-line service reviews

Closer integration of health and social care is a policy priority in many countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the necessity of joining up health and social care systems, especially in care home settings. However, the meaning and perceived importance of integration for residents' and carers' experience is unclear and we do not know whether it has changed during the pandemic. Using unique data from on-line care home service reviews, we combined multiple methods. We used Natural Language Processing with supervised machine learning to construct a measure of sentiment for care home residents' and their relatives' (measured by AFINN score). Difference-in-difference analysis was used to examine whether experiencing integrated care altered these sentiments by comparing changes in sentiment in reviews related to integration (containing specific terms) to those which were not. Finally, we used network analysis on post-estimation results to assess which specific attributes stakeholders focus on most when detailing their most/least positive experiences of health and care integration in care homes, and whether these attributes changed over the pandemic. Reviews containing integration words were more positive than reviews unrelated to integration in the pre-pandemic period (about 2.3 points on the AFINN score) and remained so during the first year of the pandemic. Overall positive sentiment increased during the COVID-19 period (average by +1.1 points), mainly in reviews mentioning integration terms at the beginning of the first (+2.17, p-value 0.175) and second waves (+3.678, p-value 0.027). The role of care home staff was pivotal in both positive and negative reviews, with a shift from aspects related to care in pre-pandemic to information services during the pandemic, signalling their importance in translating integrated needs-based paradigms into policy and practice.

Physical education student teachers' wellbeing during Covid-19: Resilience resources and challenges from school placement

The coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic has given rise to significant global challenges across education, and specifically in the physical education teacher education (PETE) community. Students attending teacher education programmes during the Covid-19 pandemic have experienced an abrupt and unprecedented pedagogical transition from a face-to-face capacity to remote teaching, learning, and assessment environments. Crucially, student teachers' school placement experiences faced increased challenges and practical implications from additional environmental and social changes. In the context of continued global and national challenges for initial teacher education (ITE) programmes, the present qualitative study, using a representative sample of 24 student physical education (PE) teachers from a PETE programme, investigates the perceived implications of the Covid-19 pandemic on student teachers' practice and wellbeing during their final 2020/2021 academic year. Results indicate that student teachers maintain that exercise, connections with the university and school placement communities, alongside personal and professional organisation skills serve as resilience resources protecting their wellbeing. Conversely, student teachers express that school placement isolation, restricted PE delivery, increased workload, low teacher efficacy, and the responsibility to implement Covid-19 behaviour regulations presented as challenges that negatively affect their wellbeing. The paper concludes with practices that may further support PETE and ITE programmes and their student teachers to maintain a stable level of wellbeing throughout their careers.

A cultural evolutionary theory that explains both gradual and punctuated change

Cumulative cultural evolution (CCE) occurs among humans who may be presented with many similar options from which to choose, as well as many social influences and diverse environments. It is unknown what general principles underlie the wide range of CCE dynamics and whether they can all be explained by the same unified paradigm. Here, we present a scalable evolutionary model of discrete choice with social learning, based on a few behavioural science assumptions. This paradigm connects the degree of transparency in social learning to the human tendency to imitate others. Computer simulations and quantitative analysis show the interaction of three primary factors—information transparency, popularity bias and population size—drives the pace of CCE. The model predicts a stable rate of evolutionary change for modest degrees of popularity bias. As popularity bias grows, the transition from gradual to punctuated change occurs, with maladaptive subpopulations arising on their own. When the popularity bias gets too severe, CCE stops. This provides a consistent framework for explaining the rich and complex adaptive dynamics taking place in the real world, such as modern digital media.

Inequalities in the Challenges Affecting Children and their Families during COVID-19 with School Closures and Reopenings: A Qualitative Study

School closure is one of the most debated measures undertaken to contain the spread of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. The pandemic has devastating health and socio-economic effects and must be contained, but schools play a vital role in present and future well-being, capabilities and health of children. We examine the detrimental consequences of both the closure and reopening of schools, by focusing on inequalities in the challenges affecting children and their families. This paper is grounded on Irish and Italian data from a multi-national longitudinal qualitative interview study. Research participants articulated a variety of issues and challenges that highlight inequalities in access to education during school closures, in the supportiveness of home setting, and in school preparedness to reopen, often mirroring or exacerbating pre-existing inequalities. The reported unequal lived experiences indicate that some harms are actionable, and already suggest some potential harm mitigation strategies. We conclude by advocating for enhanced public consultation to help mitigate the consequences of public dilemmas in general, and to help detect and tackle inadequacies and inequalities for school children through and beyond the pandemic, by learning from the experience of the concerned actors.

Modeling Key Strategies for Reducing Socio-Economic and Health Crisis: Perspective from COVID-19 Pandemic

The pandemic outbreak has dramatically changed every sector and walk of life. Specifically, the developing countries with scarce resources are facing unprecedented crises that further jeopardize efforts to achieve sustainable life. Considering the case of a developing country, Pakistan, this study empirically identifies the most important strategies to reduce the socio-economic and health challenges during COVID-19. Initially, the study identified 14 key strategies from the prior literature. Later, these strategies were determined with the help of the interpretive structural modeling (ISM) approach through expert suggestions. The ISM model represents seven levels of pandemic containment strategies based on their significance level. The strategies existing at the top level of ISM model are the least important, while the strategies at the bottom of hierarchy levels are highly significant. Therefore, the study results demonstrated that "strong leadership and control" and "awareness on social media" play significant roles in reducing pandemic challenges, while "promoting online purchase behavior" and "online education" are the least important strategies in tackling pandemic crisis. This study will benefit government authorities and policymakers, enabling them to focus more on significant measures in battling this ongoing crisis.

Two years of COVID-19 pandemic: Framework of health interventions in a Brazilian city

The COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on public health have urgently demanded effective health policies to avoid the spread of COVID-19. Thus, public administrators have implemented non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions to mitigate the pandemic's impacts and strengthen health services. The aim of this ecological study is to describe the scenario of COVID-19 pandemic in a Brazilian city, during 2 years. This ecological study was carried out in Nova Friburgo, a Brazilian city, for 105 weeks (two years), from March 29, 2020 (week 1) to April 02, 2022 (week 105). Data on COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 deaths, occupation of COVID-19 exclusive beds in hospitals, community mobility, vaccination, government regulation on the opening of city establishments and city risk assessment were collected from public datasets. Four waves of COVID-19 cases and deaths were observed during this period. The first case occurred in week 1 and first death in week 3 of this study. The highest peaks of cases and deaths were observed during the third wave with 1,131 cases (week 54) and 47 deaths (week 55) and where the highest occupation of COVID-19 exclusive beds in local hospitals occurred. Interventions from more restrictive to more flexible, were implemented throughout this study, including lockdown and gradual return in economic and social strata levels. Vaccination began on week 43 and at the end of this study 89.91% of the total population was vaccinated with at least one dose, being 83.22% fully vaccinated. A deep description of several interventions used to avoid COVID-19 spread in a Brazilian city during 2 years of this pandemic can help promote better decision-making in the future while it exposes the challenges of conducting public health policies in a pandemic scenario.

How to design virus containment policies? A joint analysis of economic and epidemic dynamics under the COVID-19 pandemic

We analyze the impact of different designs of COVID-19-related lockdown policies on economic loss and mortality using a micro-level simulation model, which combines a multi-sectoral closed economy with an epidemic transmission model. In particular, the model captures explicitly the (stochastic) effect of interactions between heterogeneous agents during different economic activities on virus transmissions. The empirical validity of the model is established using data on economic and pandemic dynamics in Germany in the first 6 months after the COVID-19 outbreak. We show that a policy-inducing switch between a strict lockdown and a full opening-up of economic activity based on a high incidence threshold is strictly dominated by alternative policies, which are based on a low incidence threshold combined with a light lockdown with weak restrictions of economic activity or even a continuous weak lockdown. Furthermore, also the ex ante variance of the economic loss suffered during the pandemic is substantially lower under these policies. Keeping the other policy parameters fixed, a variation of the consumption restrictions during the lockdown induces a trade-off between GDP loss and mortality. Furthermore, we study the robustness of these findings with respect to alternative pandemic scenarios and examine the optimal timing of lifting containment measures in light of a vaccination rollout in the population.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 mass testing in South Tyrol using a semi-parametric growth model

Mass antigen testing has been proposed as a possible cost-effective tool to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. We test the impact of a voluntary mass testing campaign implemented in the Italian region of South Tyrol on the spread of the virus in the following months. We do so by using an innovative empirical approach which embeds a semi-parametric growth model-where COVID-19 transmission dynamics are allowed to vary across regions and to be impacted by the implementation of the mass testing campaign-into a synthetic control framework which creates an appropriate control group of other Italian regions. Our results suggest that mass testing campaigns are useful instruments for mitigating the pandemic.

The Effect of Governmental Health Measures on Public Behaviour During the COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in radical changes in many aspects of life. To deal with this, each country has implemented continuous health measures from the beginning of the outbreak. Discovering how governmental actions impacted public behaviour during the outbreak stage is the purpose of this study.

METHODS

This study uses a hybrid large-scale data visualisation method to analyse public behaviour (epidemic concerns, self-protection, and mobility trends), using the data provided by multiple authorities. Meanwhile, a content analysis method is used to qualitatively code the health measures of three countries with severe early epidemic outbreaks from different continents, namely China, Italy, and the United States. Eight dimensions are coded to rate the mobility restrictions implemented in the above countries.

RESULTS

(1) Governmental measures did not immediately persuade the public to change their behaviours during the COVID-19 epidemic. Instead, the public behaviour proceeded in a three-phase rule, which is typically witnessed in an epidemic outbreak, namely the wait-and-see phase, the surge phase and the slow-release phase. (2) The strictness of the mobility restrictions of the three countries can be ranked as follows: Hubei Province in China (with an average score of 8.5 out of 10), Lombardy in Italy (7.125), and New York State in the United States (5.375). Strict mobility restrictions are more likely to cause a surge of population outflow from the epidemic area in the short term, whereas the effect of mobility restrictions is positively related to the stringency of policies in the long term.

CONCLUSION

The public showed generally lawful behaviour during regional epidemic outbreaks and blockades. Meanwhile public behaviour was deeply affected by the actions of local governments, rather than the global pandemic situation. The contextual differences between the various countries are important factors that influence the effects of the different governments' health measures.

Support for bigger government: The principle-implementation gap and COVID-19

We study the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on government and market attitudes using within-subject comparisons of survey responses elicited before and after the onset of the pandemic. We find that participants develop significantly less favorable opinions toward government and markets; and that participants increase support for bigger government significantly and for redistribution, in general, marginally significantly. There is no evidence this leads to an increase in support for specific redistributive policies, nor for government to play a larger role in specific functions. Our results echo the stubbornness of American preferences for redistribution and suggest the presence of a principle-implementation gap.

A Community-Based Participatory Research Approach to Developing and Testing Social and Behavioural Interventions to Reduce the Spread of SARS-CoV-2: A Protocol for the 'COPAR for COVID' Programme of Research with Five Interconnected Studies in the Hong Kong Context

BACKGROUND

While a number of population preventive measures for COVID-19 exist that help to decrease the spread of the virus in the community, there are still many areas in preventative efforts that need improvement or refinement, particularly as new strains of the virus develop. Some of the key issues currently include incorrect and/or inconsistent use of face masks, low acceptance of early screening or vaccination for COVID-19, vaccine hesitance, and misinformation. This is particularly the case in some vulnerable populations, such as older people with chronic illnesses, ethnic minorities who may not speak the mainstream language well and children. The current protocol introduces a large programme of research through five interrelated studies that all focus on social and behavioural interventions to improve different aspects of community-related preventative indicators. Hence, the specific objectives of the overall programme are to (1) increase early testing for COVID-19 and promote the uptake of COVID-19 vaccines in the community (Study 1); (2) increase COVID-19-related health literacy and vaccine literacy and promote improved preventative measures in minority ethnic groups, chronically ill populations and caregivers (Study 2); (3) strengthen the public's motivation to stay at home and avoid nonessential high-risk activities (Study 3); (4) decrease COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy (Study 4); and (5) enhance the adherence to COVID-19-related hygiene practices and the uptake of early testing in school children (Study 5).

METHODS

We will utilise a community-based participatory research (CBPR) approach in the proposed studies. All studies will incorporate an intervention development phase in conjunction with key community stakeholders, a feasibility study and an execution stage. A variety of self-reported and objective-based measures will be used to assess various outcomes, based on the focus of each study, in both the short- and long-term, including, for example, the 8-item self-reported eHealth Literacy Scale (eHEAL) and objective measures such as vaccine uptake.

DISCUSSION

Theory-driven interventions will address each study's focus (e.g., social distancing, promotion of vaccine uptake, eHealth education, preventive measures and early detection). Improvements are expected to be seen in the outcomes of vulnerable and high-risk groups. Decreased infection rates are expected due to improved preventative behaviours and increased vaccine uptake. Long-term sustainability of the approach will be achieved through the CBPR model. The publication of this protocol can assist not only in sharing a large-scale and complex community-based design, but will also allow all to learn from this, so that we will have better insight in the future whether sharing of study designs can elicit timely research initiatives.

The global evolution of mental health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted mental health, but the global evolution of mental health problems during the pandemic is unknown. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies to evaluate the global evolution of mental health problems during the pandemic.

METHODS

To conduct this systematic review, we searched for published articles from APA PsycInfo (Ovid), CINAHL (EBSCOhost), Embase (Ovid), MEDLINE (Ovid), and Web of Science. Longitudinal (at least 2 waves during the COVID-19 pandemic) and peer-reviewed articles on mental health problems conducted as from 2020 and after were included in the current study. Of 394 eligible full texts, 64 articles were included in the analysis. We computed random effects, standardized mean differences, and log odds ratio (LOR) with 95 % CIs. The meta-analysis protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021273624).

RESULTS

Results showed that anxiety (LOR = -0.33; 95 % CI, -0.54, -0.12) and depression symptoms (LOR = -0.12; 95 % CI, -0.21, -0.04) decreased from baseline to follow up. However, other mental health problems showed no change. Higher prevalence rates (40.9 %; 95 % CI, 16.1 %-65.8 %) of psychological distress were found in months after July 2020, respectively, while there were no significant month differences for the prevalence of other mental health problems. Higher means of anxiety (d = 3.63, 95 % CI, 1.66, 5.61), depression (d = 3.93; 95 % CI, 1.68, 6.17), and loneliness (d = 5.96; 95 % CI, 3.22, 8.70) were observed in May 2020. Higher prevalence of anxiety, depression, and PTSD and higher means of anxiety, depression and loneliness were observed in North America. The prevalence of psychological distress and insomnia was higher in Latin America and Europe, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

There is a lack of longitudinal studies in some parts of the world, such as Africa, the Caribbean, India, the Middle East, in Latin America, and Asia.

CONCLUSIONS

Results indicated that anxiety and depression symptoms decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic while other mental health problems showed no statistical change. The findings reveal that mental health problems peaked in April and May 2020. Prevalence of mental health problems remains high during the pandemic and mental health prevention, promotion and intervention programs should be implemented to mitigate the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global population.

Stay-at-home and face mask policy intentions inconsistent with incidence and fatality during the US COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many states imposed stay-at-home (SAH) and mandatory face mask (MFM) orders to supplement the United States CDC recommendations. The purpose of this study was to characterize the relationship between SAH and MFM approaches with the incidence and fatality of COVID-19 during the pandemic period until 23 August 2020 (about 171 days), the period with no vaccines or specific drugs that had passed the phase III clinical trials yet. States with SAH orders showed a potential 50-60% decrease in infection and fatality during the SAH period (about 45 days). After normalization to population density, there was a 44% significant increase in the fatality rate in no-SAH + no-MFM states when compared to SAH + MFM. However, many results in this study were inconsistent with the intent of public health strategies of SAH and MFM. There were similar incidence rates (1.41, 1.81, and 1.36%) and significant differences in fatality rates (3.40, 2.12, and 1.25%; p < 0.05) and mortality rates (51.43, 34.50, and 17.42 per 100,000 residents; p < 0.05) among SAH + MFM, SAH + no-MFM, and no-SAH + no-MFM states, respectively. There were no significant differences in total positive cases, average daily new cases, and average daily fatality when normalized with population density among the three groups. This study suggested potential decreases in infection and fatality with short-term SAH order. However, SAH and MFM orders from some states' policies probably had limited effects in lowering transmission and fatality among the general population. At the policy-making level, if contagious patients would not likely be placed in strict isolation and massive contact tracing would not be effective to implement, we presume that following the CDC's recommendations with close monitoring of healthcare capacity could be appropriate in helping mitigate the COVID-19 disaster while limiting collateral socioeconomic damages.

The health benefit of physical exercise on COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from mainland China

Objectives

Our study aims to investigate the health benefit of regular physical exercise participation on a series of COVID-19 outcomes including COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, and cure rate.

Methods

Prefecture-level panel data related to physical exercise and the COVID-19 pandemic in China were collected from January 1 to March 17, 2020, (N = 21379). Multiple linear regression was conducted, and the ordinary least squares technique was used to estimate the coefficient.

Results

It was shown that regular sports participation significantly negatively affected COVID-19 morbidity (estimate = -1.1061, p<0.01) and mortality (estimate = -0.3836, p<0.01), and positively affected cure rate (estimate = 0.0448, p<0.01), implying that engaging in physical exercise regularly does have a significant positive effect on COVID-19 outcomes. Then, we explored the heterogeneity of the effect of physical exercise on areas with different risk levels and it was revealed that the effect of physical exercise was more pronounced in high-risk areas in terms of morbidity (estimate = -1.8776, p<0.01 in high-risk areas; estimate = -0.0037, p<0.01 in low-risk areas), mortality (estimate = -0.3982, p<0.01 in high-risk areas; estimate = -0.3492, p<0.01 in low-risk areas), and cure rate (estimate = 0.0807, p<0.01 in high-risk areas; 0.0193 = -0.0037, p<0.05 in low-risk areas).

Conclusions

Our results suggest that regularly engaging in physical exercise before the pandemic has positive health effects, especially in the case of a more severe epidemic. Therefore, we urge readers to actively engage in physical exercise so that we can reduce the risks in the event of a pandemic.

Effects of the Government Response and Community Mobility on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Southeast Asia

Preventive policies and mobility restrictions are believed to work for inhibiting the growth rate of COVID-19 cases; however, their effects have rarely been assessed and quantified in Southeast Asia. We aimed to examine the effects of the government responses and community mobility on the COVID-19 pandemic in Southeast Asian countries. The study extracted data from Coronavirus Government Response Tracker, COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, and Our World in Data between 1 March and 31 December 2020. The government responses were measured by containment, health, and economic support index. The community mobility took data on movement trends at six locations. Partial least square structural equation modeling was used for bi-monthly analyses in each country. Results show that the community mobility generally followed government responses, especially the containment index. The path coefficients of government responses to community mobility ranged from −0.785 to −0.976 in March to April and −0.670 to −0.932 in May to June. The path coefficients of community mobility to the COVID-19 cases ranged from −0.058 to −0.937 in March to April and from −0.059 to −0.640 in September to October. It suggests that the first few months since the mobility restriction implemented is the optimal time to control the pandemic.

Prediction of upcoming global infection burden of influenza seasons after relaxation of public health and social measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The transmission dynamics of influenza were affected by public health and social measures (PHSMs) implemented globally since early 2020 to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to assess the effect of COVID-19 PHSMs on the transmissibility of influenza viruses and to predict upcoming influenza epidemics.

METHODS

For this modelling study, we used surveillance data on influenza virus activity for 11 different locations and countries in 2017-22. We implemented a data-driven mechanistic predictive modelling framework to predict future influenza seasons on the basis of pre-COVID-19 dynamics and the effect of PHSMs during the COVID-19 pandemic. We simulated the potential excess burden of upcoming influenza epidemics in terms of fold rise in peak magnitude and epidemic size compared with pre-COVID-19 levels. We also examined how a proactive influenza vaccination programme could mitigate this effect.

FINDINGS

We estimated that COVID-19 PHSMs reduced influenza transmissibility by a maximum of 17·3% (95% CI 13·3-21·4) to 40·6% (35·2-45·9) and attack rate by 5·1% (1·5-7·2) to 24·8% (20·8-27·5) in the 2019-20 influenza season. We estimated a 10-60% increase in the population susceptibility for influenza, which might lead to a maximum of 1-5-fold rise in peak magnitude and 1-4-fold rise in epidemic size for the upcoming 2022-23 influenza season across locations, with a significantly higher fold rise in Singapore and Taiwan. The infection burden could be mitigated by additional proactive one-off influenza vaccination programmes.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest the potential for substantial increases in infection burden in upcoming influenza seasons across the globe. Strengthening influenza vaccination programmes is the best preventive measure to reduce the effect of influenza virus infections in the community.

FUNDING

Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.

Physical Activity During Lockdowns Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review and Multilevel Meta-analysis of 173 Studies with 320,636 Participants

Background

Many countries have restricted public life in order to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). As a side effect of related measures, physical activity (PA) levels may have decreased.

Objective

We aimed (1) to quantify changes in PA and (2) to identify variables potentially predicting PA reductions.

Methods

A systematic review with random-effects multilevel meta-analysis was performed, pooling the standardized mean differences in PA measures before and during public life restrictions.

Results

A total of 173 trials with moderate methodological quality (modified Downs and Black checklist) were identified. Compared to pre-pandemic, total PA (SMD − 0.65, 95% CI − 1.10 to − 0.21) and walking (SMD − 0.52, 95% CI − 0.29 to − 0.76) decreased while sedentary behavior increased (SMD 0.91, 95% CI: 0.17 to 1.65). Reductions in PA affected all intensities (light: SMD − 0.35, 95% CI − 0.09 to − 0.61, p = .013; moderate: SMD − 0.33, 95% CI − 0.02 to − 0.6; vigorous: SMD − 0.33, − 0.08 to − 0.58, 95% CI − 0.08 to − 0.58) to a similar degree. Moderator analyses revealed no influence of variables such as sex, age, body mass index, or health status. However, the only continent without a PA reduction was Australia and cross-sectional trials yielded higher effect sizes (p < .05).

Conclusion

Public life restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in moderate reductions in PA levels and large increases in sedentary behavior. Health professionals and policy makers should therefore join forces to develop strategies counteracting the adverse effects of inactivity.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40798-022-00515-x.

Surveillance, contact tracing and characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational settings in Northern Italy, September 2020 to April 2021

BACKGROUND

The role of school contacts in the spread of the virus and the effectiveness of school closures in controlling the epidemic is still debated. We aimed to quantify the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the school setting by type of school, characteristics of the index case and calendar period in the Province of Reggio Emilia (RE), Italy. The secondary aim was to estimate the speed of implementation of contact tracing.

METHODS

A population-based analysis of surveillance data on all COVID-19 cases occurring in RE, Italy, from 1 September 2020, to 4 April 2021, for which a school contact and/or exposure was suspected. An indicator of the delay in contact tracing was calculated as the time elapsed since the index case was determined to be positive and the date on which the swab test for classmates was scheduled (or most were scheduled).

RESULTS

Overall, 30,184 and 13,608 contacts among classmates and teachers/staff, respectively, were identified and were recommended for testing, and 43,214 (98.7%) underwent the test. Secondary transmission occurred in about 40% of the investigated classes, and the overall secondary case attack rate was 4%. This rate was slightly higher when the index case was a teacher but with almost no differences by type of school, and was stable during the study period. Speed of implementation of contact tracing increased during the study period, with the time from index case identification to testing of contacts being reduced from seven to three days. The ability to identify the possible source of infection in the index case also increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the spread of the Alpha variant during the study period in RE, the secondary case attack rate remained stable from school reopening in September 2020 until the beginning of April 2021.

Impacts of economic inequality on healthcare worker safety at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: cross-sectional analysis of a global survey

OBJECTIVES

To assess the extent to which protection of healthcare workers (HCWs) as COVID-19 emerged was associated with economic inequality among and within countries.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of associations of perceptions of workplace risk acceptability and mitigation measure adequacy with indicators of respondents' respective country's economic income level (World Bank assessment) and degree of within-country inequality (Gini index).

SETTING

A global self-administered online survey.

PARTICIPANTS

4977 HCWs and healthcare delivery stakeholders from 161 countries responded to health and safety risk questions and a subset of 4076 (81.2%) answered mitigation measure questions. The majority (65%) of study participants were female.

RESULTS

While the levels of risk being experienced at the pandemic's onset were consistently deemed as unacceptable across all groupings, participants from countries with less income inequality were somewhat less likely to report unacceptable levels of risk to HCWs regarding both workplace environment (OR=0.92, p=0.012) and workplace organisational factors (OR=0.93, p=0.017) compared with counterparts in more unequal national settings. In contrast, considerable variation existed in the degree to which mitigation measures were considered adequate. Adjusting for other influences through a logistic regression analysis, respondents from lower middle-income and low-income countries were comparatively much more likely to assess both occupational health and safety (OR=10.91, p≤0.001) and infection prevention and control (IPC) (OR=6.61, p=0.001) protection measures as inadequate, despite much higher COVID-19 rates in wealthier countries at the time of the survey. Greater within-country income inequality was also associated with perceptions of less adequate IPC measures (OR=0.94, p=0.025). These associations remained significant when accounting for country-level differences in occupational and gender composition of respondents, including specifically when only female care providers, our study's largest and most at-risk subpopulation, were examined.

CONCLUSIONS

Economic inequality threatens resilience of health systems that rely on health workers working safely to provide needed care during emerging pandemics.

Narcissism, national narcissism, COVID-19 conspiracy belief, and social media use as predictors of compliance with COVID-19 public health guidelines

Understanding health belief models, and the variables that influence adherence to public health measures imposed by local governments and international health bodies, is crucial to slowing down the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19. Conspiracy theories about the virus have quickly spread on social media and have been linked to reluctance to comply with COVID-19 regulations. Personality traits such as narcissism and collective national narcissism have also been associated with the way we perceive severity and susceptibility to the disease. To examine this further, participants (N = 183) completed an online questionnaire measuring belief in COVID-19 conspiracies, trait narcissism, national narcissism, and social media usage. A model containing these variables was able to significantly predict adherence to COVID-19 preventative health behaviours, with higher levels of COVID-19 conspiracy belief, narcissism, and social media usage all contributing to reduced adherence to recommended COVID-19 health behaviours. The findings suggest conspiracy beliefs, narcissism, and social media play a key role in adherence to behaviours orientated towards stopping the spread of COVID-19. Governments and social media companies need to demonstrate greater awareness of the negative effects of conspiracy theories spread through social media, in addition to awareness of how these effects may be greater in more narcissistic individuals.

The impact of air travel on the precocity and severity of COVID-19 deaths in sub-national areas across 45 countries

Human travel fed the worldwide spread of COVID-19, but it remains unclear whether the volume of incoming air passengers and the centrality of airports in the global airline network made some regions more vulnerable to earlier and higher mortality. We assess whether the precocity and severity of COVID-19 deaths were contingent on these measures of air travel intensity, adjusting for differences in local non-pharmaceutical interventions and pre-pandemic structural characteristics of 502 sub-national areas on five continents in April-October 2020. Ordinary least squares (OLS) models of precocity (i.e., the timing of the 1st and 10th death outbreaks) reveal that neither airport centrality nor the volume of incoming passengers are impactful once we consider pre-pandemic demographic characteristics of the areas. We assess severity (i.e., the weekly death incidence of COVID-19) through the estimation of a generalized linear mixed model, employing a negative binomial link function. Results suggest that COVID-19 death incidence was insensitive to airport centrality, with no substantial changes over time. Higher air passenger volume tends to coincide with more COVID-19 deaths, but this relation weakened as the pandemic proceeded. Different models prove that either the lack of airports in a region or total travel bans did reduce mortality significantly. We conclude that COVID-19 importation through air travel followed a 'travel as spark' principle, whereby the absence of air travel reduced epidemic risk drastically. However, once some travel occurred, its impact on the severity of the pandemic was only in part associated with the number of incoming passengers, and not at all with the position of airports in the global network of airline connections.

Health-Related Self-Care Strategies and Coping Resources During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Online-Based Cross-Sectional Study

Background: Complementary medicine (CM) is often used as an opportunity for preventive health measures and supportive self-care practices. This study aimed to explore the use of self-care practices and preventive health strategies and the aspects of the experienced emotions during the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with an affinity for CM. Methods: The authors conducted an exploratory cross-sectional study using an anonymous 41-item online survey in the German language. The survey respondents were recruited among adults with an affinity for CM (e.g., as targeted through their memberships in CM associations) from September 2020 to February 2021. A selection of self-care methods, mainly from CM, was presented in the questionnaire. Numerical rating scales (NRSs), ranging from 0 = minimum to 10 = maximum, were used to measure the intensity of different emotions experienced during the pandemic. Statistical analysis was carried out descriptively. Results: A total of 1605 participants (80.6% female; mean age: 55.4 ± 12.6 [SD] years; 43.9% holding a university degree) were included. The use of self-care methods for health promotion during the pandemic was reported by 86.8% of the respondents. Respondents favored staying in nature (85.6%), healthy nutrition (85.6%), and physical activities (83.6%). More than 60% of the respondents made use of vitamin C and/or D, herbal medicines, nutritional supplements, relaxation techniques, breathing exercises, homeopathy, or meditation for health promotion. The analysis of emotional status by NRS (0-10) revealed the lowest mean ± SD (standard deviation) for "feeling lonely" (2.6 ± 2.9) and "feeling anxious" (2.8 ± 2.6), and the highest mean for "feeling connected to others" (6.2 ± 2.5) and "well-being" (5.8 ± 2.4). Conclusions: Participants used a wide variety of self-care methods and prevention strategies to promote their health during the COVID-19 pandemic and showed, overall, a balanced emotional status. Further research should include a control group representative of the general population, to investigate the possible impact of self-care strategies. Clinical Trial Registration Number: "Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien" (German Clinical Trial Register); registration number: DRKS00022909.

Tracking Mental Wellbeing of Dutch Adolescents During the First Year of the COVID-19 Lockdown: A Longitudinal Study

PURPOSE

Adolescents might be susceptible to the effects of the COVID-19 lockdown. We assessed changes in mental wellbeing throughout the first year of the pandemic and compared these with prepandemic levels.

METHODS

This five-wave prospective study among Dutch adolescents aged 12-17 years used data collected before the pandemic (n = 224) (T0), in May (T1), July (T2), and October 2020 (T3), and in February 2021 (T4). Generalized estimating equations were used to assess the association between stringency of the lockdown with mental wellbeing.

RESULTS

Adolescents had a lower life satisfaction during the first full lockdown (T1) [adjusted β: -0.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.58 to -0.13], during the partial lockdown (T3) (adjusted β: -0.37, 95% CI: -0.63 to -0.12), and during the second full lockdown (T4) (adjusted β: -0.79, 95% CI: -1.07 to -0.52) compared to before the pandemic (T0). Adolescents reported more internalizing symptoms during only the second full lockdown (T4) (adjusted β: 2.58, 95% CI: 0.41-4.75). During the pandemic [at T1 (adjusted β: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.20-0.38), T2 (adjusted β: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.26-0.46), T3 (adjusted β: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.22-0.45), and T4 (adjusted β: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.07-0.34)], adolescents reported a better psychosomatic health, partly attributable to less trouble falling asleep (p < .01).

DISCUSSION

The COVID-19 lockdown measures have had both a negative and positive impact on mental wellbeing of Dutch adolescents. However, mental wellbeing was most impacted during the second full lockdown compared to before the pandemic.

Emergence and dissemination of monkeypox, an intimidating global public health problem

The monkeypox virus (MPXV) is the cause of a zoonotic infection similar to smallpox. Although it is endemic to Africa, it has recently begun to circulate in other parts of the world. In July 2022, the World Health Organization declared monkeypox an international public health emergency. This review aims to provide an overview of this neglected zoonotic pathogen. MPXV circulates as two distinct clades, the Central African and West African, with case fatality rates of 10.6% and 3.6%, respectively. The risk of infection is greater for those who work with animals or infected individuals. The virus' entry into the human body provokes both natural and acquired immunity. Although natural killer cells, CD4 + T cells, and CD8 + T cells play an essential role in eradicating MPXV, there is still a gap in the understanding of the host immune response to the virus. Currently, there are no specific therapeutic guidelines for treating monkeypox; however, some antiviral drugs such as tecovirimat and cidofovir may help to abate the severity of the disease. The use of nonpharmaceutical interventions and immunization can reduce the risk of infection. Increased surveillance and identification of monkeypox cases are crucial to understand the constantly shifting epidemiology of this resurging and intimidating disease. The present review provides a detailed perspective on the emergence and circulation of MPXV in human populations, infection risks, human immune response, disease diagnosis and prevention strategies, and future implications, and highlights the importance of the research community engaging more with this disease for an effective global response.

Public health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic through the lens of community organisations and networks in the Netherlands (2020-2021): five lessons for pandemic decision-making

Background

During the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, key persons who were formally or informally active in community organisations and networks, such as sports clubs or cultural, educational, day care and healthcare facilities, occupied a key position between governments and citizens. However, their experiences, the dilemmas they faced and the solutions they generated when implementing COVID-19 measures in their respective settings are understudied.

Aim

We aimed to understand how key persons in different community organisations and networks experienced and responded to the COVID-19 measures in the Netherlands.

Methods

Between October 2020 and December 2021, the Corona Behavioural Unit at the Dutch national public health institute, conducted qualitative research based on narratives derived from 65 in-depth interviews with 95 key persons from 32 organisations and networks in eight different sectors.

Results

Firstly, key persons enhanced adherence and supported the resilience and well-being of people involved in their settings. Secondly, adherence was negatively affected where COVID-19 measures conflicted with important organisational goals and values. Thirdly, small changes and ambiguities in COVID-19 policy had substantial consequences, depending on the context. Fourthly, problem-solving was achieved through trial-and-error, peer support, co-creation and transparent communication. Lastly, the COVID-19 pandemic and measures highlighted inequalities in access to resources.

Conclusion

Pandemic preparedness requires organisational and community preparedness and a multidisciplinary public health approach. Structural engagement of governments with key persons in community organisations and networks is key to enhance public trust and adherence to pandemic measures and contributes to health equity and the well-being of the people involved.

Pros and cons factors influence population attitudes toward non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination during post–COVID-19

Objectives

Population compliance greatly influences the effectiveness of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for the curtaining of COVID-19 transmission. We aimed to determine the conceptual framework of potential factors that influence compliance.

Study design

This was a cross-sectional study.

Methods

Questionnaires were used to survey population attitudes toward vaccination and NPIs in China. Confirmatory factor analysis of the survey data by structural equation model was used to define the pros and cons factors of attitudes. The strength and direction of each factor’s effect on population attitudes were illustrated by Bayesian network analysis.

Results

A total of 1700 respondents aged 18–70 years were surveyed with a panel of 34 questionnaires. Of these questionnaires, the confirmatory factor and structural equation model analysis identified five categories contributing to positive attitudes, including response efficiency, willingness and behavior, trust, cues to action, and knowledge, as well as four categories contributing to negative attitudes, including autonomy, perceived barriers, threat, and mental status. Bayesian networks revealed that cues to action produced a driving force for positive attitudes, followed by willingness and behavior, trust, response efficiency, and knowledge, whereas perceived barriers produced a driving force for negative attitudes, followed by autonomy and threat.

Conclusions

This study established a concise and representative list of questionnaires that could be applied to investigate the conceptual framework of potential pros and cons factors of attitudes toward vaccination and NPIs for COVID-19 prevention. The factors with driving forces should be addressed with a priority to effectively improve population compliance.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 30 European countries: the ECDC-JRC Response Measures Database

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries implemented a wide set of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), sometimes with limited knowledge on their effect and impact on population. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) developed a Response Measures Database (ECDC–JRC RMD) to archive NPIs in 30 EU/EEA countries from 1 January 2020 to 30 September 2022. We aimed to introduce a tool for the wider scientific community to assess COVID-19 NPIs effect and impact in the EU/EEA. We give an overview of the ECDC–JRC RMD rationale and structure, including a brief analysis of the main NPIs applied in 2020, before the roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. The ECDC–JRC RMD organises NPIs through a three-level hierarchical structure and uses four additional parameters (‘status’, ‘implementation’, ‘target group’ and ‘geographical representation’) to provide further information on the implementation of each measure. Features including the ready-for-analysis, downloadable format and its agile taxonomy and structure highlight the potential of the ECDC–JRC RMD to facilitate further NPI analysis and optimise decision making on public health response policies.

Long-term spatial and population-structured planning of non-pharmaceutical interventions to epidemic outbreaks

In this paper, we consider the problem of planning non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of infectious diseases. We propose a new model derived from classical compartmental models; however, we model spatial and population-structure heterogeneity of population mixing. The resulting model is a large-scale non-linear and non-convex optimisation problem. In order to solve it, we apply a special variant of covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy. We show that results obtained for three different objectives are better than natural heuristics and, moreover, that the introduction of an individual's mobility to the model is significant for the quality of the decisions. We apply our approach to a six-compartmental model with detailed Poland and COVID-19 disease data. The obtained results are non-trivialand sometimes unexpected; therefore, we believe that our model could be applied to support policy-makers in fighting diseases at the long-term decision-making level.

Pooling samples to increase testing capacity with Xpert Xpress SARS-CoV-2 during the Covid-19 pandemic in Lao People’s Democratic Republic

The COVID-19 pandemic created the need for large-scale testing of populations. However, most laboratories do not have sufficient testing capacity for mass screening. We evaluated pooled testing of samples, as a strategy to increase testing capacity in Lao PDR. Samples of consecutive patients were tested in pools of four using the Xpert Xpress SARS CoV-2 assay. Positive pools were confirmed by individual testing, and we describe the performance of the test and savings achieved. We also diluted selected positive samples to describe its effect on the assays CT values. 1,568 patients were tested in 392 pools of four. 361 (92.1%) pools were negative and 31 (7.9%) positive. 29/31 (93.5% (95%CI 77–99%) positive pools were confirmed by individual testing of the samples but, in 2/31 (6.5%) the four individual samples were negative, suggesting contamination. Pools with only one positive sample had higher CT values (lower RNA concentrations) than the respective individual samples, indicating a dilution effect, which suggested an increased risk of false negative results with dilutions >1:10. However, this risk may be low if the prevalence of infection is high, when pools are more likely to contain more than one positive sample. Pooling saved 67% of cartridges and substantially increased testing capacity. Pooling samples increased SARS-CoV-2 testing capacity and resulted in considerable cartridge savings. Given the need for high-volume testing, countries may consider implementation of pooling for SARS-CoV-2 screening.

A causal inference approach for estimating effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions during Covid-19 pandemic

In response to the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), governments worldwide have introduced multiple restriction policies, known as non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the relative impact of control measures and the long-term causal contribution of each NPI are still a topic of debate. We present a method to rigorously study the effectiveness of interventions on the rate of the time-varying reproduction number R_t and on human mobility, considered here as a proxy measure of policy adherence and social distancing. We frame our model using a causal inference approach to quantify the impact of five governmental interventions introduced until June 2020 to control the outbreak in 113 countries: confinement, school closure, mask wearing, cultural closure, and work restrictions. Our results indicate that mobility changes are more accurately predicted when compared to reproduction number. All NPIs, except for mask wearing, significantly affected human mobility trends. From these, schools and cultural closure mandates showed the largest effect on social distancing. We also found that closing schools, issuing face mask usage, and work-from-home mandates also caused a persistent reduction on R_t after their initiation, which was not observed with the other social distancing measures. Our results are robust and consistent across different model specifications and can shed more light on the impact of individual NPIs.

Public health ethics: critiques of the "new normal"

The global response to the recent coronavirus pandemic has revealed an ethical crisis in public health. This article analyses key pandemic public health policies in light of widely accepted ethical principles: the need for evidence, the least restrictive/harmful alternative, proportionality, equity, reciprocity, due legal process, and transparency. Many policies would be considered unacceptable according to pre-pandemic norms of public health ethics. There are thus significant opportunities to develop more ethical responses to future pandemics. This paper serves as the introduction to this Special Issue of Monash Bioethics Review and provides background for the other articles in this collection.

The methodologies to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19: a systematic review

Non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, have been implemented around the world to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Their effectiveness in improving health-related outcomes has been the subject of numerous empirical studies. However, these studies show fairly large variation among methodologies in use, reflecting the absence of an established methodological framework. On the one hand, variation in methodologies may be desirable to assess the robustness of results; on the other hand, a lack of common standards can impede comparability among studies. To establish a comprehensive overview over the methodologies in use, we conducted a systematic review of studies assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions between January 1, 2020 and January 12, 2021 (n = 248). We identified substantial variation in methodologies with respect to study setting, outcome, intervention, methodological approach, and effectiveness assessment. On this basis, we point to shortcomings of existing studies and make recommendations for the design of future studies.

Vaccination and COVID-19 in Polish Dialysis Patients: Results from the European Clinical Dialysis Database

Background: Patients with end-stage kidney disease undergoing hemodialysis are particularly vulnerable to severe COVID-19 as a result of older age and multimorbidities. Objectives: Data are still limited and there are no published data on mortality in hemodialyzed patients in Poland, in particular when vaccines became available. We assessed the epidemiologic and clinical data of patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and assessed the mortality in 2019, 2020, and 2021, as well as the vaccination rate in 2021. Patients and Methods: Retrospectively collected data from 73 Fresenius Nephrocare Poland hemodialysis centers and one public unit were analyzed. Results: In 2021, the vaccination rate was 96%. The unadjusted mortality (number of deaths divided by number of patients) in 2019 was 18.8%, while the unadjusted (after exclusion of COVID-related deaths) mortality in 2020 was 20.8%, and mortality in 2021 was 16.22%. The prevalence of cardiovascular deaths in 2019 and 2020 was almost identical (41.4% vs. 41.2%, respectively), and in 2021, the figures increased slightly to 44.1%. The prevalence of sudden cardiac deaths in 2019 was higher than in 2020 (19.6% vs. 17.3%, respectively) and consequently decreased in 2021 (10.0%), as well as strokes (6.2% vs. 5.4%, and 3.31% in 2021), whereas deaths due to gastrointestinal tract diseases were lower (2.5% vs. 3.2%, and 2.25% in 2021), diabetes complications (0.5% vs. 1.3%, and 0.5% in 2021), sepsis (5.1% vs. 6.3%, and 8.79% in 2021), respiratory failure (1.2 vs. 1.6%, and 2.83% in 2021), and pneumonia (1.4% vs. 2.0%, and 0.82%). There were 1493 hemodialyzed COVID-19 positive patients, and among them, 191 died in 2020 (12.79%). In 2021, there were 1224 COVID-19 positive patients and 260 died (21.24%). The mortality of COVID-19 positive dialyzed patients contributed 13.39% in 2020 and 16.21% in 2021 of all recorded deaths. Conclusions: The mortality among HD patients was higher in 2021 than in 2020 and 2019, despite the very high vaccination rate of up to 96%. The higher non-COVID-19 mortality may be due to the limited possibility of hospitalization and dedicated care during the pandemic. This information is extremely important in order to develop methods to protect this highly vulnerable patient group. Prevention plays a key role; other measures are essential in the mitigation and spread of COVID-19 in HD centers.

European Governments' Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic during the First Wave: Resetting Governance Systems to Cope More Effectively with Future Shocks

The emergence of the current global crisis induced by the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic brings about an urgent need to rethink and reshape recovery strategies adapted to this specific challenging context. Neglecting this reconfiguration could lead to system lockdown, affecting all sectors, both on medium and long term. The coronavirus has penetrated various countries with different degrees of intensity, thus being spatially diversified; even within the same country, with the same lockdown measures, an enormous variety in cases is encountered. Subsequently, even if crises may manifest heterogeneously and the long-term impact of implementing recovery policies cannot be accurately known ex ante by governments, institutions could adapt themselves to changing circumstances and respond promptly and appropriately to emerging shocks only if their functioning framework had been well set up by the outbreak of the crisis. Considering these aspects, the main questions that this paper aims to answer are: How effective have governmental measures in European countries been in combating the COVID-19 crisis?; Could the solutions offered by the European states' governments have an influence on diminishing the intensity of negative effects of a possible more serious return of this health crisis? What more could national authorities and international actors do to control the epidemiological evolution of SARS-CoV-2? Is a generic European Union policy helpful or should there be a case for local policy? Based on these issues, a comprehensive picture of the differences between the East and the West of Europe in terms of some medical, socio-economic, institutional and cultural factors will be outlined, in order to emphasize which of the two groups better-handled the COVID-19 situation in the first wave, covering the lockdown period (March 1, 2020 - June 1, 2020) and the relaxation period (June 1, 2020 - September 1, 2020); at the same time, some policy recommendations on how governments should more effectively manage future similar crises to generate a higher resilience of the systems will be provided.

Is Myasthenia Gravis a Real Complication of the COVID-19 Vaccine? A Case Report-Based Systematic Review

Background

Myasthenia gravis (MG) is a neuromuscular, autoimmune disease that causes weakness by impairing neuromuscular transmission. According to reports, vaccines can lead to autoimmunity in different ways, and COVID-19 vaccines are suggested to trigger MG. We conducted this systematic review to assess MG patients after the COVID-19 vaccination.

Methods

We collected 231 studies from four databases from inception to 26 March 2022.

Results

4 case studies were selected from 231 research studies, and data were extracted based on inclusion criteria. In all cases, MG was reported following COVID-19 vaccination. Symptoms such as muscle weakness, numbness, and ptosis were common. The MG was confirmed through RNST, MRC, NCS, and AchR-binding antibody titer tests.

Conclusion

Although all cases of MG were diagnosed following appropriate tests, the sample size was small; therefore, further investigation is required to demonstrate the possible association between MG and COVID-19 vaccination.

Germany's fourth COVID-19 wave was mainly driven by the unvaccinated

Background

While the majority of the German population was fully vaccinated at the time (about 65%), COVID-19 incidence started growing exponentially in October 2021 with about 41% of recorded new cases aged twelve or above being symptomatic breakthrough infections, presumably also contributing to the dynamics. So far, it remained elusive how significant this contribution was and whether targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may have stopped the amplification of the crisis.

Methods

We develop and introduce a contribution matrix approach based on the next-generation matrix of a population-structured compartmental infectious disease model to derive contributions of respective inter- and intragroup infection pathways of unvaccinated and vaccinated subpopulations to the effective reproduction number and new infections, considering empirical data of vaccine efficacies against infection and transmission.

Results

Here we show that about 61%-76% of all new infections were caused by unvaccinated individuals and only 24%-39% were caused by the vaccinated. Furthermore, 32%-51% of new infections were likely caused by unvaccinated infecting other unvaccinated. Decreasing the transmissibility of the unvaccinated by, e. g. targeted NPIs, causes a steeper decrease in the effective reproduction number R than decreasing the transmissibility of vaccinated individuals, potentially leading to temporary epidemic control. Reducing contacts between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals serves to decrease R in a similar manner as increasing vaccine uptake.

Conclusions

A minority of the German population-the unvaccinated-is assumed to have caused the majority of new infections in the fall of 2021 in Germany. Our results highlight the importance of combined measures, such as vaccination campaigns and targeted contact reductions to achieve temporary epidemic control.