Climate-Driven Shifts in Marine Species Ranges: Scaling from Organisms to Communities

The geographic distributions of marine species are changing rapidly, with leading range edges following climate poleward, deeper, and in other directions and trailing range edges often contracting in similar directions. These shifts have their roots in fine-scale interactions between organisms and their environment-including mosaics and gradients of temperature and oxygen-mediated by physiology, behavior, evolution, dispersal, and species interactions. These shifts reassemble food webs and can have dramatic consequences. Compared with species on land, marine species are more sensitive to changing climate but have a greater capacity for colonization. These differences suggest that species cope with climate change at different spatial scales in the two realms and that range shifts across wide spatial scales are a key mechanism at sea. Additional research is needed to understand how processes interact to promote or constrain range shifts, how the dominant responses vary among species, and how the emergent communities of the future ocean will function.

The Role of Symbioses in the Adaptation and Stress Responses of Marine Organisms

Ocean ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented rates of climate and anthropogenic change, which can often initiate stress in marine organisms. Symbioses, or associations between different organisms, are plentiful in the ocean and could play a significant role in facilitating organismal adaptations to stressful ocean conditions. This article reviews current knowledge about the role of symbiosis in marine organismal acclimation and adaptation. It discusses stress and adaptations in symbioses from coral reef ecosystems, which are among the most affected environments in the ocean, including the relationships between corals and microalgae, corals and bacteria, anemones and clownfish, and cleaner fish and client fish. Despite the importance of this subject, knowledge of how marine organisms adapt to stress is still limited, and there are vast opportunities for research and technological development in this area. Attention to this subject will enhance our understanding of the capacity of symbioses to alleviate organismal stress in the oceans.

A framework for experimental scenarios of global change in marine systems using coral reefs as a case study

Understanding the consequences of rising CO₂ and warming on marine ecosystems is a pressing issue in ecology. Manipulative experiments that assess responses of biota to future ocean warming and acidification conditions form a necessary basis for expectations on how marine taxa may respond. Although designing experiments in the context of local variability is most appropriate, local temperature and CO₂ characteristics are often unknown as such measures necessitate significant resources, and even less is known about local future scenarios. To help address these issues, we summarize current uncertainties in CO₂ emission trajectories and climate sensitivity, examine region-specific changes in the ocean, and present a straightforward global framework to guide experimental designs. We advocate for the inclusion of multiple plausible future scenarios of predicted levels of ocean warming and acidification in forthcoming experimental research. Growing a robust experimental base is crucial to understanding the prospect form and function of marine ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

Ocean warming compresses the three-dimensional habitat of marine life

Vertical migration to reach cooler waters is a suitable strategy for some marine organisms to adapt to ocean warming. Here, we calculate that realized vertical isotherm migration rates averaged -6.6 + 18.8 m dec^-1 across the global ocean between 1980 and 2015. Throughout this century (2006-2100), surface isotherms are projected to deepen at an increasing rate across the globe, averaging -32.3 m dec^-1 under the representative concentration pathway (RCP)8.5 'business as usual' emissions scenario, and -18.7 m dec^-1 under the more moderate RCP4.5 scenario. The vertical redistribution required by organisms to follow surface isotherms over this century is three to four orders of magnitude less than the equivalent horizontal redistribution distance. However, the seafloor depth and the depth of the photic layer pose ultimate limits to the vertical migration possible by species. Both limits will be reached by the end of this century across much of the ocean, leading to a rapid global compression of the three-dimensional (3D) habitat of many marine organisms. Phytoplankton diversity may be maintained but displaced toward the base of the photic layer, whereas highly productive benthic habitats, especially corals, will have their suitable 3D habitat rapidly reduced.

Diverging phenological responses of Arctic seabirds to an earlier spring

The timing of annual events such as reproduction is a critical component of how free-living organisms respond to ongoing climate change. This may be especially true in the Arctic, which is disproportionally impacted by climate warming. Here, we show that Arctic seabirds responded to climate change by moving the start of their reproduction earlier, coincident with an advancing onset of spring and that their response is phylogenetically and spatially structured. The phylogenetic signal is likely driven by seabird foraging behavior. Surface-feeding species advanced their reproduction in the last 35 years while diving species showed remarkably stable breeding timing. The earlier reproduction for Arctic surface-feeding birds was significant in the Pacific only, where spring advancement was most pronounced. In both the Atlantic and Pacific, seabirds with a long breeding season showed a greater response to the advancement of spring than seabirds with a short breeding season. Our results emphasize that spatial variation, phylogeny, and life history are important considerations in seabird phenological response to climate change and highlight the key role played by the species' foraging behavior.

Climate-human interaction associated with southeast Australian megafauna extinction patterns

The mechanisms leading to megafauna (>44 kg) extinctions in Late Pleistocene (126,000—12,000 years ago) Australia are highly contested because standard chronological analyses rely on scarce data of varying quality and ignore spatial complexity. Relevant archaeological and palaeontological records are most often also biased by differential preservation resulting in under-representated older events. Chronological analyses have attributed megafaunal extinctions to climate change, humans, or a combination of the two, but rarely consider spatial variation in extinction patterns, initial human appearance trajectories, and palaeoclimate change together. Here we develop a statistical approach to infer spatio-temporal trajectories of megafauna extirpations (local extinctions) and initial human appearance in south-eastern Australia. We identify a combined climate-human effect on regional extirpation patterns suggesting that small, mobile Aboriginal populations potentially needed access to drinkable water to survive arid ecosystems, but were simultaneously constrained by climate-dependent net landscape primary productivity. Thus, the co-drivers of megafauna extirpations were themselves constrained by the spatial distribution of climate-dependent water sources.

Whether Australia’s Pleistocene megafauna extinctions were caused by climate change, humans, or both is debated. Here, the authors infer the spatio-temporal trajectories of regional extinctions and find that water availability mediates the relationship among climate, human migration and megafauna extinctions.

Thermal performance responses in free-ranging elasmobranchs depend on habitat use and body size

Temperature is one of the most influential drivers of physiological performance and behaviour in ectotherms, determining how these animals relate to their ecosystems and their ability to succeed in particular habitats. Here, we analysed the largest set of acceleration data compiled to date for elasmobranchs to examine the relationship between volitional activity and temperature in 252 individuals from 8 species. We calculated activation energies for the thermal performance response in each species and estimated optimum temperatures using an Arrhenius breakpoint analysis, subsequently fitting thermal performance curves to the activity data. Juveniles living in confined nursery habitats not only spent substantially more time above their optimum temperature and at the upper limits of their performance breadths compared to larger, less site-restricted animals, but also showed lower activation energies and broader performance curves. Species or life stages occupying confined habitats featured more generalist behavioural responses to temperature change, whereas wider ranging elasmobranchs were characterised by more specialist behavioural responses. The relationships between the estimated performance regimes and environmental temperature limits suggest that animals in confined habitats, including many juvenile elasmobranchs within nursery habitats, are likely to experience a reduction of performance under a warming climate, although their flatter thermal response will likely dampen this impact. The effect of warming on less site-restricted species is difficult to forecast since three of four species studied here did not reach their optimum temperature in the wild, although their specialist performance characteristics may indicate a more rapid decline should optimum temperatures be exceeded.

Differing climatic mechanisms control transient and accumulated vegetation novelty in Europe and eastern North America

Understanding the mechanisms of climate that produce novel ecosystems is of joint interest to conservation biologists and palaeoecologists. Here, we define and differentiate transient from accumulated novelty and evaluate four climatic mechanisms proposed to cause species to reshuffle into novel assemblages: high climatic novelty, high spatial rates of change (displacement), high variance among displacement rates for individual climate variables, and divergence among displacement vector bearings. We use climate simulations to quantify climate novelty, displacement and divergence across Europe and eastern North America from the last glacial maximum to the present, and fossil pollen records to quantify vegetation novelty. Transient climate novelty is consistently the strongest predictor of transient vegetation novelty, while displacement rates (mean and variance) are equally important in Europe. However, transient vegetation novelty is lower in Europe and its relationship to climatic predictors is the opposite of expectation. For both continents, accumulated novelty is greater than transient novelty, and climate novelty is the strongest predictor of accumulated ecological novelty. These results suggest that controls on novel ecosystems vary with timescale and among continents, and that the twenty-first century emergence of novelty will be driven by both rapid rates of climate change and the emergence of novel climate states. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Thermal stress causes nuclear and cellular abnormalities of peripheral erythrocytes in Indian major carp, rohu Labeo rohita

Rise of water temperature as a consequence of global warming is anticipated to affect the physiological activities of fish, especially in tropical regions. In the present experiment, we exposed the Indian major carp, rohu Labeo rohita to three different temperature regimes (30 °C as control and 33 °C and 36 °C) for 60 days and observed the effects of these temperature on: major hemato-biochemical indices (Hemoglobin; Hb, Red blood cell; RBC, White blood cell; WBC and blood glucose levels), erythrocytic nuclear abnormalities (ENA), and erythrocytic cellular abnormalities (ECA) of peripheral erythrocytes along with the formation of differential leucocytes in the blood. Fish were sacrificed at day 7, 15, 30 and 60 after the start of exposure to the temperature regimes. Hb decreased significantly on days 7 and 15 at 36 °C. Throughout the study period, the decrease of RBC and increase of WBC were significant at 36 °C. Blood glucose level increased significantly initially at day 7 but decreased significantly at day 60 at 36 °C. Frequencies of ENA (binucleated, nuclear bud, nuclear bridge, karyopyknosis and notched nuclei) and ECA (twin, fusion, echinocytic, spindle, tear drop and elongated shaped) were significantly increased at the highest temperature (36 °C) at almost all of the sampling days. In the case of differential leucocyte count, high temperature caused a significant increase in the number of neutrophils and a significant decrease in the number of lymphocytes. Overall, these results indicate that chronic exposure to high temperature (36 °C) induces a number of stress responses in rohu and that temperature should be kept below 36 °C in the aquaculture setting to avoid damage to the fish.

Unexpected nutrient influence on the thermal ecophysiology of seaweeds that recently followed opposite abundance shifts

World's oceans are warming, and recent studies suggest that the Iberian upwelling system may be weakening. To understand the potential consequences of both trends, six intertidal seaweeds that recently followed opposite upward and downward abundance shifts in the Iberian upwelling region were exposed for six weeks to conditions simulating present and warmed scenarios, combined with nutrient treatments emulating the influence and absence of the upwelling. Unlike expectations, a high nutrient supply did not ameliorate the effects of warming. Instead, warming slowed down growth in four seaweeds and accelerated the photosynthesis of downward seaweeds only if nutrients were abundant. In a weakened upwelling scenario, nutrient limitation might more strongly influence the performance of both upward and downward seaweeds than warming. With a normally functioning upwelling, warming might be more detrimental to the performance of some downward seaweeds as they might would lose their ability to benefit from the extra nutrient input.

Inner Mongolian grassland plant phenological changes and their climatic drivers

Global warming is widely believed to extend the length of plant growing season (LOS) through advancing the start (SOS) and delaying the end (EOS) of plant growing season. However, divergent directions of phenological changes under current climate warming have been frequently reported but poorly understood. Here we collate the long-term filed phenological and climatic records at 8 sites in Inner Mongolian grassland to assess how climate changes regulate the phenological variations with divergent directions and magnitudes in this region. We found that the spring climatic changes (e.g., changes in air temperature and precipitation during March and April) correlate well with variations in SOS. However, our in situ observations show divergent changes in SOS across space, which can be attributed to the generally insignificant changes of climates during the preseasons of SOS. The climate warming prior to the end of plant growing season (EOS) was generally significant at most sites. Nevertheless, the effects of such warming on changes in EOS were possibly overshadowed by the impacts of precipitation in this arid/semi-arid region. As a result, the temporal variations in EOS distribute divergent directions and magnitudes across space and species. Using climate attributes during the preseason of EOS alone can hardly explain changes in EOS. Alternatively, by introducing changes in SOS as an additional driving factor, variations in EOS can be well represented. We therefore infer that plant phenologies can divergently response to current global warming (depending on the seasonal patterns of warming). Moreover, other influential factors such as precipitation and the interactions between the timings of different phenological stages are also needed in predicting the phenological dynamics.

Family matters: Variation in the physiology of brooded Porites astreoides larvae is driven by parent colony effects

The planktonic larval phase of scleractinian coral life-history represents a crucial stage when dispersal takes place and genetic diversity among populations is maintained. Understanding the dynamics influencing larval survival is especially relevant in the context of climate change, as larvae may be more vulnerable to environmental disturbances than adults. Several physiological parameters of coral larvae have been shown to vary by release time and past environmental history. However, the contribution of parental or genetic effects is largely unknown. To investigate these potential familial effects, we collected adult Porites astreoides colonies in April 2018 from two reef zones in the lower Florida Keys and quantified physiological traits and thermal tolerance of the newly released larvae. Family accounted for more variation than day of release and reef origin, with >60% of the variation in chlorophyll a and protein content explained by family. The survivorship of larvae under 36 °C acute temperature stress was also tightly linked to what parent colony they were released from. During a 32 °C moderate temperature stress experiment, inshore larvae tended to bleach less than offshore larvae, mirroring the enhanced bleaching resistance previously observed in inshore adult coral populations. The significant familial effects identified in the present study suggest that researchers should be cautious when interpreting results of studies which pool larvae among families, and that future studies should take care to account for this variation.

A Review of the Effects of Climate Change on Chelonians

Climate change is occurring at an unprecedented rate and has begun to modify the distribution and phenology of organisms worldwide. Chelonians are expected to be particularly vulnerable due to limited dispersal capabilities as well as widespread temperature-dependent sex determination. The number of papers published about the effects of climate change on turtles has increased exponentially over the last decade; here, I review the data from peer-reviewed publications to assess the likely impacts of climate change on individuals, populations, and communities. Based upon these studies future research should focus on: (1) Individual responses to climate change, particularly with respect to thermal biology, phenology, and microhabitat selection; (2) improving species distribution models by incorporating fine-scale environmental variables as well as physiological processes; (3) identifying the consequences of skewed sex ratios; and (4) assessments of community resilience and the development of methods to mitigate climate change impacts. Although detailed management recommendations are not possible at this point, careful consideration should be given regarding how to manage low vagility species as habitats shift poleward. In the worst-case scenario, proactive management may be required in order to ensure that widespread losses do not occur.

Climate change, biological invasions, and the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes: A large-scale survey based on local ecological knowledge

Climate change and biological invasions are rapidly reshuffling species distribution, restructuring the biological communities of many ecosystems worldwide. Tracking these transformations in the marine environment is crucial, but our understanding of climate change effects and invasive species dynamics is often hampered by the practical challenge of surveying large geographical areas. Here, we focus on the Mediterranean Sea, a hot spot for climate change and biological invasions to investigate recent spatiotemporal changes in fish abundances and distribution. To this end, we accessed the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of small-scale and recreational fishers, reconstructing the dynamics of fish perceived as "new" or increasing in different fishing areas. Over 500 fishers across 95 locations and nine different countries were interviewed, and semiquantitative information on yearly changes in species abundance was collected. Overall, 75 species were mentioned by the respondents, mostly warm-adapted species of both native and exotic origin. Respondents belonging to the same biogeographic sectors described coherent spatial and temporal patterns, and gradients along latitudinal and longitudinal axes were revealed. This information provides a more complete understanding of the shifting distribution of Mediterranean fishes and it also demonstrates that adequately structured LEK methodology might be applied successfully beyond the local scale, across national borders and jurisdictions. Acknowledging this potential through macroregional coordination could pave the way for future large-scale aggregations of individual observations, increasing our potential for integrated monitoring and conservation planning at the regional or even global level. This might help local communities to better understand, manage, and adapt to the ongoing biotic transformations driven by climate change and biological invaders.

Climate change impacts on mismatches between phytoplankton blooms and fish spawning phenology

Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature-linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high-emissions, climate-warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: "geographic spawners" whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and "environmental spawners" whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes >40°N. The temperature-linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across >85% of this region. "Extreme events," defined here as seasonal mismatches >30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10-fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.

Large-scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean

Tuna are globally distributed species of major commercial importance and some tuna species are a major source of protein in many countries. Tuna are characterized by dynamic distribution patterns that respond to climate variability and long-term change. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental conditions on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of six tuna species between 1958 and 2004 and estimated the expected end-of-the-century changes based on a high-greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). We created species distribution models using a long-term Japanese longline fishery dataset and two-step generalized additive models. Over the historical period, suitable habitats shifted poleward for 20 out of 22 tuna stocks, based on their gravity centre (GC) and/or one of their distribution limits. On average, tuna habitat distribution limits have shifted poleward 6.5 km per decade in the northern hemisphere and 5.5 km per decade in the southern hemisphere. Larger tuna distribution shifts and changes in abundance are expected in the future, especially by the end-of-the-century (2080-2099). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin, and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward. In contrast, skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to become more abundant in tropical areas as well as in most coastal countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ). These results provide global information on the potential effects of climate change in tuna populations and can assist countries seeking to minimize these effects via adaptive management.

A general framework for propagule dispersal in mangroves

Dispersal allows species to shift their distributions in response to changing climate conditions. As a result, dispersal is considered a key process contributing to a species' long-term persistence. For many passive dispersers, fluid dynamics of wind and water fuel these movements and different species have developed remarkable adaptations for utilizing this energy to reach and colonize suitable habitats. The seafaring propagules (fruits and seeds) of mangroves represent an excellent example of such passive dispersal. Mangroves are halophytic woody plants that grow in the intertidal zones along tropical and subtropical shorelines and produce hydrochorous propagules with high dispersal potential. This results in exceptionally large coastal ranges across vast expanses of ocean and allows species to shift geographically and track the conditions to which they are adapted. This is particularly relevant given the challenges presented by rapid sea-level rise, higher frequency and intensity of storms, and changes in regional precipitation and temperature regimes. However, despite its importance, the underlying drivers of mangrove dispersal have typically been studied in isolation, and a conceptual synthesis of mangrove oceanic dispersal across spatial scales is lacking. Here, we review current knowledge on mangrove propagule dispersal across the various stages of the dispersal process. Using a general framework, we outline the mechanisms and ecological processes that are known to modulate the spatial patterns of mangrove dispersal. We show that important dispersal factors remain understudied and that adequate empirical data on the determinants of dispersal are missing for most mangrove species. This review particularly aims to provide a baseline for developing future research agendas and field campaigns, filling current knowledge gaps and increasing our understanding of the processes that shape global mangrove distributions.

Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems through the lens of the size spectrum

Climate change is a complex global issue that is driving countless shifts in the structure and function of marine ecosystems. To better understand these shifts, many processes need to be considered, yet they are often approached from incompatible perspectives. This article reviews one relatively simple, integrated perspective: the abundance-size spectrum. We introduce the topic with a brief review of some of the ways climate change is expected to impact the marine ecosystem according to complex numerical models while acknowledging the limits to understanding posed by complex models. We then review how the size spectrum offers a simple conceptual alternative, given its regular power law size-frequency distribution when viewed on sufficiently broad scales. We further explore how anticipated physical aspects of climate change might manifest themselves through changes in the elevation, slope and regularity of the size spectrum, exposing mechanistic questions about integrated ecosystem structure, as well as how organism physiology and ecological interactions respond to multiple climatic stressors. Despite its application by ecosystem modellers and fisheries scientists, the size spectrum perspective is not widely used as a tool for monitoring ecosystem adaptation to climate change, providing a major opportunity for further research.

Family-level variation in early life-cycle traits of kelp

Temperate kelp forests (Laminarians) are threatened by temperature stress due to ocean warming and photoinhibition due to increased light associated with canopy loss. However, the potential for evolutionary adaptation in kelp to rapid climate change is not well known. This study examined family-level variation in physiological and photosynthetic traits in the early life-cycle stages of the ecologically important Australasian kelp Ecklonia radiata and the response of E. radiata families to different temperature and light environments using a family × environment design. There was strong family-level variation in traits relating to morphology (surface area measures, branch length, branch count) and photosynthetic performance (Fv /Fm ) in both haploid (gametophyte) and diploid (sporophyte) stages of the life-cycle. Additionally, the presence of family × environment interactions showed that offspring from different families respond differently to temperature and light in the branch length of male gametophytes and oogonia surface area of female gametophytes. Negative responses to high temperatures were stronger for females vs. males. Our findings suggest E. radiata may be able to respond adaptively to climate change but studies partitioning the narrow vs. broad sense components of heritable variation are needed to establish the evolutionary potential of E. radiata to adapt under climate change.

Negative effects of warming on seagrass seedlings are not exacerbated by invasive algae

The observed and projected rise in sea surface temperature challenges marine biodiversity worldwide, and particularly in temperate ecosystems dealing with the arrival of novel species of tropical provenance. When the impacted biota are early life stages of ecosystem engineers, the effects of those impacts are of major concern for ecologists and coastal managers. We experimentally examined the individual and potential additive effects of seawater warming and the presence of the invasive algae on the development of seedlings of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica in a three-month mesocosm experiment. Whereas the presence of the invasive algae (Caulerpa cylindracea and Lophocladia lallemandii) did not result in detrimental effects on seedlings, warming negatively affected seedling development. Interestingly, the presence of both invasive algae may ameliorate the negative effects of warming.

Interactive effects of global warming and eutrophication on a fast-growing Mediterranean seagrass

Coastal ecosystems, such as seagrasses, are subjected to local (e.g. eutrophication) and global (e.g. warming) stressors. While the separate effects of warming and eutrophication on seagrasses are relatively well known, their joint effects remain largely unstudied. In order to fill this gap, and using Cymodocea nodosa as a model species, we assessed the joint effects of warming (three temperatures, 20 °C, 30 °C and 35 °C) with two potential outcomes of eutrophication: (i) increase in nutrients concentration in the water column (30 and 300 μM), and (ii) organic enrichment in the sediment). Our results confirm that temperature in isolation clearly affects plant performance; while plants exposed to 30 °C performed better than control plants, plants exposed to 35 °C showed clear symptoms of deterioration (e.g. decline of photosynthetic capacity, increase of incidence of necrotic tissue). Plants were unaffected by high ammonium concentrations; however, organic enrichment of sediment had deleterious effects on plant function (photosynthesis, growth, demographic balance). Interestingly, these negative effects were exacerbated by increased temperature. Our findings indicate that in addition to the possibility of the persistence of C. nodosa being directly jeopardized by temperature increase, the joint effects of warming and eutrophication may further curtail its survival. This should be taken into consideration in both predictions of climate change consequences and in local planning.

Quantifying multiple pressure interactions affecting populations of a recreationally and commercially important freshwater fish

The expanding human global footprint and growing demand for freshwater have placed tremendous stress on inland aquatic ecosystems. Aichi Target 10 of the Convention on Biological Diversity aims to minimize anthropogenic pressures affecting vulnerable ecosystems, and pressure interactions are increasingly being incorporated into environmental management and climate change adaptation strategies. In this study, we explore how climate change, overfishing, forest disturbance, and invasive species pressures interact to affect inland lake walleye (Sander vitreus) populations. Walleye support subsistence, recreational, and commercial fisheries and are one of most sought-after freshwater fish species in North America. Using data from 444 lakes situated across an area of 475 000 km² in Ontario, Canada, we apply a novel statistical tool, R-INLA, to determine how walleye biomass deficit (carrying capacity-observed biomass) is impacted by multiple pressures. Individually, angling activity and the presence of invasive zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) were positively related to biomass deficits. In combination, zebra mussel presence interacted negatively and antagonistically with angling activity and percentage decrease in watershed mature forest cover. Velocity of climate change in growing degree days above 5°C and decrease in mature forest cover interacted to negatively affect walleye populations. Our study demonstrates how multiple pressure evaluations can be conducted for hundreds of populations to identify influential pressures and vulnerable ecosystems. Understanding pressure interactions is necessary to guide management and climate change adaptation strategies, and achieve global biodiversity targets.

Climate change and climate change velocity analysis across Germany

Although there are great concerns to what extent current and future climate change impacts biodiversity across different spatial and temporal scales, we still lack a clear information on different climate change metrics across fine spatial scales. Here we present an analysis of climate change and climate change velocity at a local scale (1 × 1 km) across Germany. We focus on seasonal climate variability and velocity and investigate changes in three time periods (1901–2015, 1901–1950 and 1951–2015) using a novel statistical approach. Our results on climate variability showed the highest trends for the 1951–2015 time period. The strongest (positive/negative) and spatially the most dispersed trends were found for Summer maximum temperature and Summer minimum temperatures. For precipitation the strongest positive trends were most pronounced in the summer (1951–2015) and winter (1901–2015). Results for climate change velocity showed that almost 90% of temperature velocities were in the range of 0.5 to 3 km/year, whereas all climate velocities for precipitation were within the range of −3.5 to 4.5 km/year. The key results amplify the need for more local and regional scale studies to better understand species individualistic responses to recent climate change and allow for more accurate future projections and conservation strategies.

Functional reorganization of marine fish nurseries under climate warming

While climate change is rapidly impacting marine species and ecosystems worldwide, the effects of climate warming on coastal fish nurseries have received little attention despite nurseries' fundamental roles in recruitment and population replenishment. Here, we used a 26-year time series (1987-2012) of fish monitoring in the Bay of Somme, a nursery in the Eastern English Channel (EEC), to examine the impacts of environmental and human drivers on the spatial and temporal dynamics of fish functional structure during a warming phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We found that the nursery was initially dominated by fishes with r-selected life-history traits such as low trophic level, low age and size at maturity, and small offspring, which are highly sensitive to warming. The AMO, likely superimposed on climate change, induced rapid warming in the late 1990s (over 1°C from 1998 to 2003), leading to functional reorganization of fish communities, with a roughly 80% decline in overall fish abundance and increased dominance by K-selected fishes. Additionally, historical overfishing likely rendered the bay more vulnerable to climatic changes due to increased dominance by fishing-tolerant, yet climatically sensitive species. The drop in fish abundance not only altered fish functional structure within the Bay of Somme, but the EEC was likely impacted, as the EEC has been unable to recover from a regime shift in the late 1990s potentially, in part, due to failed replenishment from the bay. Given the collapse of r-selected fishes, we discuss how the combination of climate cycles and global warming could threaten marine fish nurseries worldwide, as nurseries are often dominated by r-selected species.

Impacts of increased ocean temperatures on a low-latitude coral reef fish - Processes related to oxygen uptake and delivery

Increasing temperatures are expected to significantly affect the physiological performance of ectotherms, particularly in tropical locations. The shape of an organism's thermal reaction norm can provide important information on its capacity to persist under climate change scenarios; however, difficulty lies in choosing a measurable trait that best depicts physiological performance. This study investigated the effects of elevated temperatures on processes related to oxygen uptake and delivery, including oxygen consumption, haematology, and tissue health for a low-latitude population of coral reef damselfish. Acanthochromis polyacanthus were collected from the Torres Strait (10°31-46'S, 142°20-35'E) and maintained at current average ocean temperatures (+0 °C; seasonally cycling), + 1.5 °C and + 3 °C higher than present day temperatures for 10 months. Aerobic performance indicated a limit to metabolic function at + 3 °C (33 °C), following an increase in aerobic capacity at + 1.5 °C (31.5 °C). Neither haematological parameters nor gill morphology showed the same improvement in performance at + 1.5 °C. Gill histopathology provided the first indicator of a decline in organism health, which corresponded with mortality observations from previous research. Findings from this study suggest thermal specialisation in this low-latitude population as well as variation in thermal sensitivity, depending on the physiological trait.

Climate Change, Coral Loss, and the Curious Case of the Parrotfish Paradigm: Why Don't Marine Protected Areas Improve Reef Resilience?

Scientists have advocated for local interventions, such as creating marine protected areas and implementing fishery restrictions, as ways to mitigate local stressors to limit the effects of climate change on reef-building corals. However, in a literature review, we find little empirical support for the notion of managed resilience. We outline some reasons for why marine protected areas and the protection of herbivorous fish (especially parrotfish) have had little effect on coral resilience. One key explanation is that the impacts of local stressors (e.g., pollution and fishing) are often swamped by the much greater effect of ocean warming on corals. Another is the sheer complexity (including numerous context dependencies) of the five cascading links assumed by the managed-resilience hypothesis. If reefs cannot be saved by local actions alone, then it is time to face reef degradation head-on, by directly addressing anthropogenic climate change-the root cause of global coral decline.

Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases

We assess scientific evidence that has emerged since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s 2009 Endangerment Finding for six well-mixed greenhouse gases and find that this new evidence lends increased support to the conclusion that these gases pose a danger to public health and welfare. Newly available evidence about a wide range of observed and projected impacts strengthens the association between the risk of some of these impacts and anthropogenic climate change, indicates that some impacts or combinations of impacts have the potential to be more severe than previously understood, and identifies substantial risk of additional impacts through processes and pathways not considered in the Endangerment Finding.

Seasonal patterns of canopy photosynthesis captured by remotely sensed sun-induced fluorescence and vegetation indexes in mid-to-high latitude forests: A cross-platform comparison

Characterized by the noticeable seasonal patterns of canopy photosynthesis, mid-to-high latitude forests are sensitive to climate change and crucial for understanding the global carbon cycle. To monitor the seasonal cycle of the canopy photosynthesis from space, several remotely sensed indexes, such as normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and leaf area index (LAI) have been implemented within the past decades. Recently, satellite-derived sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) has shown great potential of providing retrievals that are more related to photosynthesis process. However, the potentials of different canopy measurements have not been thoroughly assessed in the context of recent advances of new satellites and proposals of improved indexes. At 15 forested sites, we present a cross-platform intercomparison of one emerging remote sensing based index of phenology index (PI) and two SIF datasets against the conventional indexes such as NDVI, EVI, and LAI to capture the seasonal cycles of canopy photosynthesis. NDVI, EVI, LAI, and PI were calculated from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements, while SIF were evaluated from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) observations. Results indicated that GOME-2 SIF was highly correlated with gross primary production (GPP) and absorbed photosynthetically active radiation during the growing seasons. The SIF-GPP relationship can generally be considered linear at the 16-day scale. Key phenological metrics such as start of the seasons and end of the seasons captured by SIF from GOME-2 and OCO-2 matched closely with photosynthesis phenology as inferred by GPP. However, the applications of OCO-2 SIF for phenological studies may be limited only for a small range of sites (at site-level) due to a limited spatial sampling. Among the MODIS estimations, PI and NDVI provided most reliable predictions of start of growing seasons, while no indexes accurately captured the end of growing seasons.

Thermal tolerance of Mediterranean marine macrophytes: Vulnerability to global warming

The Mediterranean Sea is warming at three times the rate of the global ocean raising concerns about the vulnerability of marine organisms to climate change. Macrophytes play a key role in coastal ecosystems, therefore predicting how warming will affect these key species is critical to understand the effects of climate change on Mediterranean coastal ecosystems. We measured the physiological performance of six dominant native Mediterranean macrophytes under ten temperature treatments ranging from 12 to 34°C to examine their thermal niche, and vulnerability to projected warming in the western Mediterranean up until 2100. Among the macrophytes tested, Cymodocea nodosa was the species with the highest thermal optima and it was beyond current summer temperature. Therefore, C. nodosa may benefit from projected warming over the coming century. The optimal temperature for growth of the other species (Posidonia oceanica, Cystoseira compressa, Padina pavonica, Caulerpa prolifera, and Halimeda tuna) was lower. Similarly, the species presented different upper lethal limits, spanning at least across 5.1°C between 28.9°C (P. oceanica) and >34°C (C. nodosa). Our results demonstrate the variable physiological responses of species within the same local community to temperature changes and highlight important potential differences in climate change vulnerability, among species within coastal marine ecosystems.

Biogeographical zonation of rocky intertidal communities along the coast of Peru (3.5-13.5° S Southeast Pacific)

The biogeography of the Peruvian Eastern Pacific coast has been described based on oceanographic parameters and qualitative species occurrence data. This has generated disagreement about the limits and existence of different biogeographic units. In this study, the distribution of rocky-shore macrobenthic communities were recorded over 41 sites along the Peruvian coastline (3.5°S-13.5°S) and analyzed together with historic abiotic data in order to quantitatively evaluate the biogeographic zonation of rocky intertidal communities throughout the region and its relationship with environmental variables to propose an update bioregionalization. Clusters and non-metric multidimensional scaling were performed using Bray-Curtis dissimilarity matrices from abundance data to evaluate biogeographic patterns of dissimilarities of rocky-shore communities. Significant turnover of taxa among defined biogeographical units was tested using permutational multivariate dispersion. Relationships between of the biogeographical community's structure and environmental factors were examined using Random Forest analysis on datasets available at Bio-Oracle and Jet Propulsion Laboratory-California Institute of Technology. Variation of community structure of 239 taxa depicted three biogeographical units along the region matching Panamic, transitional and Humboldt provinces. Beta diversity analysis indicated a significant turnover of taxa within the transitional unit. Random forest analysis showed a strong correlation between biogeographic units with phosphate, sea surface temperature, nitrate, dissolved oxygen, cloud fraction, and silicates. Our results set the putative limits of three biogeographic units for rocky-shore communities along the coast of Peru, providing base-line information for understanding further biogeographic changes on communities associated with the ongoing regional coastal cooling and impacts of El Niño events.

Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot

The environmental effects of climate change are predicted to cause distribution shifts in many marine taxa, yet data are often difficult to collect. Quantifying and monitoring species' suitable environmental habitats is a pragmatic approach for assessing changes in species distributions but is underdeveloped for quantifying climate change induced range shifts in marine systems. Specifically, habitat predictions present opportunities for quantifying spatiotemporal distribution changes while accounting for sources of natural climate variation. Here we demonstrate the utility of a marine-based habitat model parameterized using citizen science data and remotely sensed environmental covariates for quantifying shifts in oceanographic habitat suitability over 22 years for a coastal-pelagic fish species in a climate change hotspot. Our analyses account for the effects of natural intra- and interannual climate variability to reveal rapid poleward shifts in core (94.4 km/decade) and poleward edge (108.8 km/decade) oceanographic habitats. Temporal persistence of suitable oceanographic habitat at high latitudes also increased by approximately 3 months over the study period. Our approach demonstrates how marine citizen science data can be used to quantify range shifts, but necessitates shifting focus from species distributions directly, to the distribution of species' environmental habitat preferences.

Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea

Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well-documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst-case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.

Temperature-Driven Biodiversity Change: Disentangling Space and Time

Temperature regimes have multiple spatial and temporal dimensions that have different impacts on biodiversity. Signatures of warming across these dimensions may contribute uniquely to the large-scale species redistributions and abundance changes that underpin community dynamics. A comprehensive review of the literature reveals that 86% of studies were focused on community responses to temperature aggregated over spatial or temporal dimensions (e.g., mean, median, or extremes). Therefore, the effects of temperature variation in space and time on biodiversity remain generally unquantified. In the present article, we argue that this focus on aggregated temperature measures may limit advancing our understanding of how communities are being altered by climate change. In light of this, we map the cause-and-effect pathways between the different dimensions of temperature change and communities in space and time. A broadened focus, shifted toward a multidimensional perspective of temperature, will allow better interpretation and prediction of biodiversity change and more robust management and conservation strategies.

Extinction risk in extant marine species integrating palaeontological and biodistributional data

Extinction risk assessments of marine invertebrate species remain scarce, which hinders effective management of marine biodiversity in the face of anthropogenic impacts. To help close this information gap, in this paper we provide a metric of relative extinction risk that combines palaeontological data, in the form of extinction rates calculated from the fossil record, with two known correlates of risk in the modern day: geographical range size and realized thermal niche. We test the performance of this metric-Palaeontological Extinction Risk In Lineages (PERIL)-using survivorship analyses of Pliocene bivalve faunas from California and New Zealand, and then use it to identify present-day hotspots of extinction vulnerability for extant shallow-marine Bivalvia. Areas of the ocean where concentrations of bivalve species with higher PERIL scores overlap with high levels of climatic or anthropogenic stressors should be considered of most immediate concern for both conservation and management.