Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment

The Demography of Mental Health Among Mature Adults in a Low-Income, High-HIV-Prevalence Context

Very few studies have investigated mental health in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using data from Malawi, this article provides a first picture of the demography of depression and anxiety (DA) among mature adults (aged 45 or older) in a low-income country with high HIV prevalence. DA are more frequent among women than men, and individuals affected by one are often affected by the other. DA are associated with adverse outcomes, such as poorer nutrition intake and reduced work efforts. DA also increase substantially with age, and mature adults can expect to spend a substantial fraction of their remaining lifetime-for instance, 52 % for a 55-year-old woman-affected by DA. The positive age gradients of DA are not due to cohort effects, and they are in sharp contrast to the age pattern of mental health that has been shown in high-income contexts, where older individuals often experience lower levels of DA. Although socioeconomic and risk- or uncertainty-related stressors are strongly associated with DA, they do not explain the positive age gradients and gender gap in DA. Stressors related to physical health, however, do. Hence, our analyses suggest that the general decline of physical health with age is the key driver of the rise of DA with age in this low-income SSA context.

HIV Infection, Pulmonary Tuberculosis, and COPD in Rural Uganda: A Cross-Sectional Study

PURPOSE

HIV is associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in high resource settings. Similar relationships are less understood in low resource settings. We aimed to estimate the association between HIV infection, tuberculosis, and COPD in rural Uganda.

METHODS

The Uganda Non-communicable Diseases and Aging Cohort study observes people 40 years and older living with HIV (PLWH) on antiretroviral therapy, and population-based HIV-uninfected controls in rural Uganda. Participants completed respiratory questionnaires and post-bronchodilator spirometry.

RESULTS

Among 269 participants with spirometry, median age was 52 (IQR 48-55), 48% (n = 130) were ever-smokers, and few (3%, n = 9) reported a history of COPD or asthma. All participants with prior tuberculosis (7%, n = 18) were PLWH. Among 143 (53%) PLWH, median CD4 count was 477 cells/mm3 and 131 (92%) were virologically suppressed. FEV1 was lower among older individuals (- 0.5%pred/year, 95% CI 0.2-0.8, p < 0.01) and those with a history of tuberculosis (- 14.4%pred, 95% CI - 23.5 to - 5.3, p < 0.01). COPD was diagnosed in 9 (4%) participants, eight of whom (89%) were PLWH, six of whom (67%) had a history of tuberculosis, and all of whom (100%) were men. Among 287 participants with complete symptom questionnaires, respiratory symptoms were more likely among women (AOR 3.9, 95% CI 2.0-7.7, p < 0.001) and those in homes cooking with charcoal (AOR 3.2, 95% CI 1.4-7.4, p = 0.008).

CONCLUSION

In rural Uganda, COPD may be more prevalent among PLWH, men, and those with prior tuberculosis. Future research is needed to confirm these findings and evaluate their broader impacts on health.

A Conditional Economic Incentive Fails to Improve Linkage to Care and Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Among HIV-Positive Adults in Cape Town, South Africa

Interventions to improve antiretroviral therapy (ART) access are urgently needed to maximize the multiple benefits from ART. This pilot study examined the effect of a conditional economic incentive on linkage to care and uptake of treatment following ART referral by a mobile health clinic. Between April 2015 and May 2016, 86 individuals (≥18 years old) referred for ART in a resource-limited setting were randomized (1:1) to a control group or to an incentive: R300 cash (∼$23, or 3.5 days minimum wage in the domestic worker sector), conditional upon starting ART within 3 months. Outcome data were obtained from clinic records. The incentive effects on linkage to care (first clinic visit within 3 months) and ART initiation (treatment uptake within 3 months) were assessed using logistic regression. Overall, 67% linked to care and 42% initiated ART within 3 months after referral. No significant differences were found between the incentive and non-incentive group in terms of linkage to care [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.26-1.91] and initiation of ART (aOR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.26-1.78). Ordinary least-squares regression analysis showed that incentivized individuals linked to care in fewer days (-7.9, 95% CI: -18.09 to 2.26) and started treatment in fewer days (-7.3, 95% CI: -27.01 to 12.38), but neither result was statistically significant. Our findings demonstrate poor treatment uptake by both the intervention and control participants and further highlight the challenge in achieving universal early treatment access. Further research is required to understand how economic incentives, which have been shown to have many benefits, can be applied to improve linkage to HIV care and treatment.

Rapid accumulation of HIV-1 thymidine analogue mutations and phenotypic impact following prolonged viral failure on zidovudine-based first-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Lack of viral load monitoring of ART is known to be associated with slower switch from a failing regimen and thereby higher prevalence of MDR HIV-1. Many countries have continued to use thymidine analogue drugs despite recommendations to use tenofovir in combination with a cytosine analogue and NNRTI as first-line ART. The effect of accumulated thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs) on phenotypic resistance over time has been poorly characterized in the African setting.

Patients and methods: A retrospective analysis of individuals with ongoing viral failure between weeks 48 and 96 in the NORA (Nevirapine OR Abacavir) study was conducted. We analysed 36 genotype pairs from weeks 48 and 96 of first-line ART (14 treated with zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine and 22 treated with zidovudine/lamivudine/abacavir). Phenotypic drug resistance was assessed using the Antivirogram assay (v. 2.5.01, Janssen Diagnostics).

Results: At 96 weeks, extensive TAMs (≥3 mutations) were present in 50% and 73% of nevirapine- and abacavir-treated patients, respectively. The mean (SE) number of TAMs accumulating between week 48 and week 96 was 1.50 (0.37) in nevirapine-treated participants and 1.82 (0.26) in abacavir-treated participants. Overall, zidovudine susceptibility of viruses was reduced between week 48 [geometric mean fold change (FC) 1.3] and week 96 (3.4, P = 0.01). There was a small reduction in tenofovir susceptibility (FC 0.7 and 1.0, respectively, P = 0.18).

Conclusions: Ongoing viral failure with zidovudine-containing first-line ART is associated with rapidly increasing drug resistance that could be mitigated with effective viral load monitoring.

Prevalence and correlates of frailty in an older rural African population: findings from the HAALSI cohort study

Background

Frailty is a key predictor of death and dependency, yet little is known about frailty in sub-Saharan Africa despite rapid population ageing. We describe the prevalence and correlates of phenotypic frailty using data from the Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of an INDEPTH Community cohort.

Methods

We analysed data from rural South Africans aged 40 and over. We used low grip strength, slow gait speed, low body mass index, and combinations of self-reported exhaustion, decline in health, low physical activity and high self-reported sedentariness to derive nine variants of a phenotypic frailty score. Each frailty category was compared with self-reported health, subjective wellbeing, impairment in activities of daily living and the presence of multimorbidity. Cox regression analyses were used to compare subsequent all-cause mortality for non-frail (score 0), pre-frail (score 1–2) and frail participants (score 3+).

Results

Five thousand fifty nine individuals (mean age 61.7 years, 2714 female) were included in the analyses. The nine frailty score variants yielded a range of frailty prevalences (5.4% to 13.2%). For all variants, rates were higher in women than in men, and rose steeply with age. Frailty was associated with worse subjective wellbeing, and worse self-reported health. Both prefrailty and frailty were associated with a higher risk of death during a mean 17 month follow up for all score variants (hazard ratios 1.29 to 2.41 for pre-frail vs non-frail; hazard ratios 2.65 to 8.91 for frail vs non-frail).

Conclusions

Phenotypic frailty could be measured in this older South African population, and was associated with worse health, wellbeing and earlier death.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-017-0694-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A portable optical reader and wall projector towards enumeration of bio-conjugated beads or cells

Measurement of the height of a packed column of cells or beads, which can be direclty related to the number of cells or beads present in a chamber, is an important step in a number of diagnostic assays. For example, haematocrit measurements may rapidly identify anemia or polycthemia. Recently, user-friendly and cost-efficient Lab-on-a-Chip devices have been developed towards isolating and counting cell sub-populations for diagnostic purposes. In this work, we present a low-cost optical module for estimating the filling level of packed magnetic beads within a Lab-on-a-Chip device. The module is compatible with a previously introduced, disposable microfluidic chip for rapid determination of CD4+ cell counts. The device is a simple optical microscope module is manufactured by 3D printing. An objective lens directly interrogates the height of packed beads which are efficiently isolated on the finger-actuated chip. Optionally, an inexpensive, battery-powered Light Emitting Diode may project a shadow of the microfluidic chip at approximately 50-fold magnification onto a nearby surface. The reader is calibrated with the filling levels of known concentrations of paramagnetic beads within the finger actuated chip. Results in direct and projector mode are compared to measurements from a conventional, inverted white-light microscope. All three read-out methods indicate a maximum variation of 6.5% between methods.

High social trust associated with increased depressive symptoms in a longitudinal South African sample

Several studies have documented a protective association between social trust and mental and physical health, but gaps in knowledge remain. Debates regarding the contextual versus individual nature of social trust are ongoing; research from low- and middle-income countries is lacking, and study designs have been limited for causal inference. To address these gaps, we examined the association between social trust and depressive symptoms using three waves of the National Income Dynamics Study, a longitudinal South African survey. We used individual fixed-effects models to assess the association between changes in scores on the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale Short Form (CES-D-10) and in individual-level and district-level personalized and generalized trust among 15,670 individuals completing at least two waves of the NIDS adult questionnaire. High individual-level generalized trust was unexpectedly associated with increased depressive symptoms scores while district generalized trust did not show an association. We also found a cross-level interaction between individual and district-level personalized trust. High individual trust was associated with increased depressive symptoms scores when district trust was low; however, as district-level trust increased, higher individual trust was associated with reduced depressive symptoms. Our unexpected results suggest that trust may not always be beneficial for depressive symptoms, but rather, that its effects may depend on context. In the South African setting where social trust is low, being very likely to trust may be associated with worse depressive symptoms in some circumstances.

Antiretroviral therapy and population mortality: Leveraging routine national data to advance policy

In a Perspective, Amitabh Suthar and Till Bärnighausen discuss progress made so far in reducing HIV-related mortality in South Africa and keys towards further population mortality reductions going forward.

High percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases within a hyperendemic South African community: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Undiagnosed HIV infections could undermine efforts to reverse the global AIDS epidemic by 2030. In this study, we estimated the percentage of HIV-positive persons who remain undiagnosed within a hyperendemic South African community.

METHODS

The data come from a population-based surveillance system located in the Umkhanyakude district of the northern KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. We annually tested 38 661 adults for HIV between 2005 and 2016. Using the HIV-positive test results of 12 039 (31%) participants, we then back-calculated the incidence of infection and derived the number of undiagnosed cases from this result.

RESULTS

The percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases decreased from 29.3% in 2005 to 15.8% in 2011. During this period, however, approximately 50% of the participants refused to test for HIV, which lengthened the average time from infection to diagnosis. Consequently, the percentage of undiagnosed HIV cases reversed direction and steadily increased from 16.1% to 18.9% over the 2012-2016 period.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from this hyperendemic South African setting show that the HIV testing rate is low, with long infection times, and an unsatisfactorily high percentage of undiagnosed cases. A high level of repeat HIV testing is needed to minimise the time from infection to diagnosis if the global AIDS epidemic is to be reversed within the next two decades.

Performance of self-reported HIV status in determining true HIV status among older adults in rural South Africa: a validation study

Introduction: In South Africa, older adults make up a growing proportion of people living with HIV. HIV programmes are likely to reach older South Africans in home-based interventions where testing is not always feasible. We evaluate the accuracy of self-reported HIV status, which may provide useful information for targeting interventions or offer an alternative to biomarker testing.

Methods: Data were taken from the Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) baseline survey, which was conducted in rural Mpumalanga province, South Africa. A total of 5059 participants aged ≥40 years were interviewed from 2014 to 2015. Self-reported HIV status and dried bloodspots for HIV biomarker testing were obtained during at-home interviews. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for self-reported status compared to “gold standard” biomarker results. Log-binomial regression explored associations between demographic characteristics, antiretroviral therapy (ART) status and sensitivity of self-report.

Results: Most participants (93%) consented to biomarker testing. Of those with biomarker results, 50.9% reported knowing their HIV status and accurately reported it. PPV of self-report was 94.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 92.0–96.0), NPV was 87.2% (95% CI: 86.2–88.2), sensitivity was 51.2% (95% CI: 48.2–54.3) and specificity was 99.0% (95% CI: 98.7–99.4). Participants on ART were more likely to report their HIV-positive status, and participants reporting false-negatives were more likely to have older HIV tests.

Conclusions: The majority of participants were willing to share their HIV status. False-negative reports were largely explained by lack of testing, suggesting HIV stigma is retreating in this setting, and that expansion of HIV testing and retesting is still needed in this population. In HIV interventions where testing is not possible, self-reported status should be considered as a routine first step to establish HIV status.

Treatment guidelines and early loss from care for people living with HIV in Cape Town, South Africa: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

South Africa has undergone multiple expansions in antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility from an initial CD4+ threshold of ≤200 cells/μl to providing ART for all people living with HIV (PLWH) as of September 2016. We evaluated the association of programmatic changes in ART eligibility with loss from care, both prior to ART initiation and within the first 16 weeks of starting treatment, during a period of programmatic expansion to ART treatment at CD4+ ≤ 350 cells/μl.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 4,025 treatment-eligible, non-pregnant PLWH accessing care in a community health center in Gugulethu Township affiliated with the Desmond Tutu HIV Centre in Cape Town. The median age of participants was 34 years (IQR 28-41 years), almost 62% were female, and the median CD4+ count was 173 cells/μl (IQR 92-254 cells/μl). Participants were stratified into 2 cohorts: an early cohort, enrolled into care at the health center from 1 January 2009 to 31 August 2011, when guidelines mandated that ART initiation required CD4+ ≤ 200 cells/μl, pregnancy, advanced clinical symptoms (World Health Organization [WHO] stage 4), or comorbidity (active tuberculosis); and a later cohort, enrolled into care from 1 September 2011 to 31 December 2013, when the treatment threshold had been expanded to CD4+ ≤ 350 cells/μl. Demographic and clinical factors were compared before and after the policy change using chi-squared tests to identify potentially confounding covariates, and logistic regression models were used to estimate the risk of pre-treatment (pre-ART) loss from care and early loss within the first 16 weeks on treatment, adjusting for age, baseline CD4+, and WHO stage. Compared with participants in the later cohort, participants in the earlier cohort had significantly more advanced disease: median CD4+ 146 cells/μl versus 214 cells/μl (p < 0.001), 61.1% WHO stage 3/4 disease versus 42.8% (p < 0.001), and pre-ART mortality of 34.2% versus 16.7% (p < 0.001). In total, 385 ART-eligible PLWH (9.6%) failed to initiate ART, of whom 25.7% died before ever starting treatment. Of the 3,640 people who started treatment, 58 (1.6%) died within the first 16 weeks in care, and an additional 644 (17.7%) were lost from care within 16 weeks of starting ART. PLWH who did start treatment in the later cohort were significantly more likely to discontinue care in <16 weeks (19.8% versus 15.8%, p = 0.002). After controlling for baseline CD4+, WHO stage, and age, this effect remained significant (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.30, 95% CI 1.09-1.55). As such, it remains unclear if early attrition from care was due to a "healthy cohort" effect or to overcrowding as programs expanded to accommodate the broader guidelines for treatment. Our findings were limited by a lack of generalizability (given that these data were from a single high-volume site where testing and treatment were available) and an inability to formally investigate the effect of crowding on the main outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Over one-quarter of this ART-eligible cohort did not achieve the long-term benefits of treatment due to early mortality, ART non-initiation, or early ART discontinuation. Those who started treatment in the later cohort appeared to be more likely to discontinue care early, and this outcome appeared to be independent of CD4+ count or WHO stage. Future interventions should focus on those most at risk for early loss from care as programs continue to expand in South Africa.

Treatment eligibility and retention in clinical HIV care: A regression discontinuity study in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Loss to follow-up is high among HIV patients not yet receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Clinical trials have demonstrated the clinical efficacy of early ART; however, these trials may miss an important real-world consequence of providing ART at diagnosis: its impact on retention in care.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We examined the effect of immediate (versus deferred) ART on retention in care using a regression discontinuity design. The analysis included all patients (N = 11,306) entering clinical HIV care with a first CD4 count between 12 August 2011 and 31 December 2012 in a public-sector HIV care and treatment program in rural South Africa. Patients were assigned to immediate versus deferred ART eligibility, as determined by a CD4 count < 350 cells/μl, per South African national guidelines. Patients referred to pre-ART care were instructed to return every 6 months for CD4 monitoring. Patients initiated on ART were instructed to return at 6 and 12 months post-initiation and annually thereafter for CD4 and viral load monitoring. We assessed retention in HIV care at 12 months, as measured by the presence of a clinic visit, lab test, or ART initiation 6 to 18 months after initial CD4 test. Differences in retention between patients presenting with CD4 counts just above versus just below the 350-cells/μl threshold were estimated using local linear regression models with a data-driven bandwidth and with the algorithm for selecting the bandwidth chosen ex ante. Among patients with CD4 counts close to the 350-cells/μl threshold, having an ART-eligible CD4 count (<350 cells/μl) was associated with higher 12-month retention than not having an ART-eligible CD4 count (50% versus 32%), an intention-to-treat risk difference of 18 percentage points (95% CI 11 to 23; p < 0.001). The decision to start ART was determined by CD4 count for one in four patients (25%) presenting close to the eligibility threshold (95% CI 20% to 31%; p < 0.001). In this subpopulation, having an ART-eligible CD4 count was associated with higher 12-month retention than not having an ART-eligible CD4 count (91% versus 21%), a complier causal risk difference of 70 percentage points (95% CI 42 to 98; p < 0.001). The major limitations of the study are the potential for limited generalizability, the potential for outcome misclassification, and the absence of data on longer-term health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who were eligible for immediate ART had dramatically higher retention in HIV care than patients who just missed the CD4-count eligibility cutoff. The clinical and population health benefits of offering immediate ART regardless of CD4 count may be larger than suggested by clinical trials.

Mechanisms of CNS Viral Seeding by HIV+ CD14+ CD16+ Monocytes: Establishment and Reseeding of Viral Reservoirs Contributing to HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorders

HIV reservoirs persist despite antiretroviral therapy (ART) and are established within a few days after infection. Infected myeloid cells in the central nervous system (CNS) may contribute to the establishment of a CNS viral reservoir. The mature CD14⁺ CD16⁺ monocyte subset enters the CNS in response to chemokines, including CCL2. Entry of infected CD14⁺ CD16⁺ monocytes may lead to infection of other CNS cells, including macrophages or microglia and astrocytes, and to release of neurotoxic early viral proteins and additional cytokines. This contributes to neuroinflammation and neuronal damage leading to HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) in ~50% of HIV-infected individuals despite ART. We examined the mechanisms of monocyte entry in the context of HIV infection and report for the first time that HIV⁺ CD14⁺ CD16⁺ monocytes preferentially transmigrate across the blood-brain barrier (BBB). The junctional proteins JAM-A and ALCAM and the chemokine receptor CCR2 are essential to their preferential transmigration across the BBB to CCL2. We show here that JAM-A and ALCAM are increased on HIV⁺ CD14⁺ CD16⁺ monocytes compared to their expression on HIV^exp CD14⁺ CD16⁺ monocytes-cells that are uninfected but exposed to HIV, viral proteins, and inflammatory mediators. Antibodies against JAM-A and ALCAM and the novel CCR2/CCR5 dual inhibitor cenicriviroc prevented or significantly reduced preferential transmigration of HIV⁺ CD14⁺ CD16⁺ monocytes. This indicates that JAM-A, ALCAM, and CCR2 may be potential therapeutic targets to block entry of these infected cells into the brain and prevent or reduce the establishment and replenishment of viral reservoirs within the CNS.IMPORTANCE HIV infects different tissue compartments of the body, including the central nervous system (CNS). This leads to establishment of viral reservoirs within the CNS that mediate neuroinflammation and neuronal damage, contributing to cognitive impairment. Our goal was to examine the mechanisms of transmigration of cells that contribute to HIV infection of the CNS and to continued replenishment of CNS viral reservoirs, to establish potential therapeutic targets. We found that an HIV-infected subset of monocytes, mature HIV⁺ CD14⁺ CD16⁺ monocytes, preferentially transmigrates across the blood-brain barrier. This was mediated, in part, by increased junctional proteins JAM-A and ALCAM and chemokine receptor CCR2. We show that the CCR2/CCR5 dual inhibitor cenicriviroc and blocking antibodies against the junctional proteins significantly reduce, and often completely block, the transmigration of HIV⁺ CD14⁺ CD16⁺ monocytes. This suggests new opportunities to eliminate infection and seeding or reseeding of viral reservoirs within the CNS, thus reducing neuroinflammation, neuronal damage, and cognitive impairment.

The History of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Africa

HIV testing of African immigrants in Belgium showed that HIV existed among Africans by 1983. However, the epidemic was recognized much later in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to stigma and perceived fear of possible negative consequences to the countries' economies. This delay had devastating mortality, morbidity, and social consequences. In countries where earlier recognition occurred, political leadership was vital in mounting a response. The response involved establishment of AIDS control programs and research on the HIV epidemiology and candidate preventive interventions. Over time, the number of effective interventions has grown; the game changer being triple antiretroviral therapy (ART). ART has led to a rapid decline in HIV-related morbidity and mortality in addition to prevention of onward HIV transmission. Other effective interventions include safe male circumcision, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and post-exposure prophylaxis. However, since none of these is sufficient by itself, delivering a combination package of these interventions is important for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat.

High rate of HIV-1 drug resistance in treatment failure patients in Taiwan, 2009-2014

Background

Drug resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), and protease inhibitors (PIs) has been associated with loss of viral suppression measured by a rise in HIV-1 RNA levels, a decline in CD4 cell counts, persistence on a failing treatment regimen, and lack of adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy.

Objectives

This study aimed to monitor the prevalence and risk factors associated with drug resistance in Taiwan after failure of first-line therapy.

Materials and methods

Data from the Veterans General Hospital Surveillance and Monitor Network for the period 2009–2014 were analyzed. Plasma samples from patients diagnosed with virologic failure and an HIV-1 RNA viral load >1000 copies/mL were analyzed by the ViroSeq^™ HIV-1 genotyping system for drug susceptibility. Hazard ratios (HRs) for drug resistance were calculated using a Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

From 2009 to 2014, 359 patients were tested for resistance. The median CD4 count and viral load (log) were 214 cells/μL (interquartile range [IQR]: 71–367) and 4.5 (IQR: 3.9–5.0), respectively. Subtype B HIV-1 strains were found in 90% of individuals. The resistance rate to any of the three classes of antiretroviral drugs (NRTI, NNRTI, and PI) was 75.5%. The percentage of NRTI, NNRTI, and PI resistance was 58.6%, 61.4%, and 11.4%, respectively. The risk factors for any class of drug resistance included age ≤35 years (adjusted HR: 2.30, CI: 1.48–3.56; p<0.0001), initial NNRTI-based antiretroviral regimens (adjusted HR: 1.70, CI: 1.10–2.63; p=0.018), and current NNRTI-based antiretroviral regimens when treatment failure occurs (odds ratio: 4.04, CI: 2.47–6.59; p<0.001). There was no association between HIV-1 subtype, viral load, and resistance.

Conclusion

This study demonstrated a high level of resistance to NRTI and NNRTI in patients with virologic failure to first-line antiretroviral therapy despite routine viral load monitoring. Educating younger men who have sex with men to maintain good adherence is crucial, as PI use is associated with lower possibility of drug resistance.

Differences in health-related quality of life between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people in Zambia and South Africa: a cross-sectional baseline survey of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial

BACKGROUND

The life expectancy of HIV-positive individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is approaching that of HIV-negative people. However, little is known about how these populations compare in terms of health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We aimed to compare HRQoL between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people in Zambia and South Africa.

METHODS

As part of the HPTN 071 (PopART) study, data from adults aged 18-44 years were gathered between Nov 28, 2013, and March 31, 2015, in large cross-sectional surveys of random samples of the general population in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa. HRQoL data were collected with a standardised generic measure of health across five domains. We used β-distributed multivariable models to analyse differences in HRQoL scores between HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals who were unaware of their status; aware, but not in HIV care; in HIV care, but who had not initiated ART; on ART for less than 5 years; and on ART for 5 years or more. We included controls for sociodemographic variables, herpes simplex virus type-2 status, and recreational drug use.

FINDINGS

We obtained data for 19 750 respondents in Zambia and 18 941 respondents in South Africa. Laboratory-confirmed HIV status was available for 19 330 respondents in Zambia and 18 004 respondents in South Africa; 4128 (21%) of these 19 330 respondents in Zambia and 4012 (22%) of 18 004 respondents in South Africa had laboratory-confirmed HIV. We obtained complete HRQoL information for 19 637 respondents in Zambia and 18 429 respondents in South Africa. HRQoL scores did not differ significantly between individuals who had initiated ART more than 5 years previously and HIV-negative individuals, neither in Zambia (change in mean score -0·002, 95% CI -0·01 to 0·001; p=0·219) nor in South Africa (0·000, -0·002 to 0·003; p=0·939). However, scores did differ between HIV-positive individuals who had initiated ART less than 5 years previously and HIV-negative individuals in Zambia (-0·006, 95% CI -0·008 to -0·003; p<0·0001). A large proportion of people with clinically confirmed HIV were unaware of being HIV-positive (1768 [43%] of 4128 people in Zambia and 2026 [50%] of 4012 people in South Africa) and reported good HRQoL, with no significant differences from that of HIV-negative people (change in mean HRQoL score -0·001, 95% CI -0·003 to 0·001, p=0·216; and 0·001, -0·001 to 0·001, p=0·997, respectively). In South Africa, HRQoL scores were lower in HIV-positive individuals who were aware of their status but not enrolled in HIV care (change in mean HRQoL -0·004, 95% CI -0·01 to -0·001; p=0·010) and those in HIV care but not on ART (-0·008, -0·01 to -0·004; p=0·001) than in HIV-negative people, but the magnitudes of difference were small.

INTERPRETATION

ART is successful in helping to reduce inequalities in HRQoL between HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals in this general population sample. These findings highlight the importance of improving awareness of HIV status and expanding ART to prevent losses in HRQoL that occur with untreated HIV progression. The gains in HRQoL after individuals initiate ART could be substantial when scaled up to the population level.

FUNDING

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institute of Mental Health, President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, International Initiative for Impact Evaluation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessment of renal function in routine care of people living with HIV on ART in a resource-limited setting in urban Zambia

Introduction

Data on renal impairment in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains scarce, determination of renal function is not part of routine assessments. We evaluated renal function and blood pressure in a cohort of people living with HIV (PLWH) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in the Renal Care Zambia project (ReCaZa).

Methods

Using routine data from an HIV outpatient clinic from 2011–2013, we retrospectively estimated the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, CKD-Epi formula) of PLWH on ART in Lusaka, Zambia. Data were included if adults had had at least one serum creatinine recorded and had been on ART for a minimum of three months. We investigated the differences in eGFR between ART subgroups with and without tenofovir disproxil fumarate (TDF), and applied multivariable linear models to associate ART and eGFR, adjusted for eGFR before ART initiation.

Results and discussion

Among 1118 PLWH (63,3% female, mean age 41.8 years, 83% ever on TDF; median duration 1461 [range 98 to 4342] days) on ART, 28.3% had an eGFR <90 ml/min, and 5.5% <60 ml/min at their last measurement. Information on other conditions associated with renal impairment was not systematically documented. Fourteen per cent of the PLWH who later switched to TDF-free ART had an initial eGFR lower 60ml/min. Nineteen percent had first-time hypertensive readings at their last visit. The multivariable models suggest that physicians acted according to guidelines and replaced TDF-containing ART if patients developed moderate/severe renal impairment.

Conclusions

Assessment of renal function in SSA remains a challenge. The vast majority of PLWH benefit from long-term ART, including improved renal function. However, approximately 5% of PLWH on ART may have clinically relevant decreased eGFR, and 27% hypertension. While a routine renal assessment might not be feasible, strategies to identify patients at risk are warranted. Targeted monitoring prior and during ART is recommended, however, should not delay ART access.

Towards an ultra-rapid smartphone- connected test for infectious diseases

The development is reported of an ultra-rapid, point-of-care diagnostic device which harnesses surface acoustic wave (SAW) biochips, to detect HIV in a finger prick of blood within 10 seconds (sample-in-result-out). The disposable quartz biochip, based on microelectronic components found in every consumer smartphone, is extremely fast because no complex labelling, amplification or wash steps are needed. A pocket-sized control box reads out the SAW signal and displays results electronically. High analytical sensitivity and specificity are found with model and real patient blood samples. The findings presented here open up the potential of consumer electronics to cut lengthy test waiting times, giving patients on the spot access to potentially life-saving treatment and supporting more timely public health interventions to prevent disease transmission.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Association between HIV and blood pressure in adults and role of body weight as a mediator: Cross-sectional study in Uganda

The authors sought to describe the association between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and blood pressure (BP) levels, and determined the extent to which this relationship is mediated by body weight in a cross-sectional study of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected controls matched by age, sex, and neighborhood. Mixed-effects models were fit to determine the association between HIV and BP and amount of effect of HIV on BP mediated through body mass index. Data were analyzed from 577 HIV-infected and 538 matched HIV-uninfected participants. HIV infection was associated with 3.3 mm Hg lower systolic BP (1.2-5.3 mm Hg), 1.5 mm Hg lower diastolic BP (0.2-2.9 mm Hg), 0.3 m/s lower pulse wave velocity (0.1-0.4 mm Hg), and 30% lower odds of hypertension (10%-50%). Body mass index mediated 25% of the association between HIV and systolic BP. HIV infection was inversely associated with systolic BP, diastolic BP, and pulse wave velocity. Comprehensive community-based programs to routinely screen for cardiovascular risk factors irrespective of HIV status should be operationalized in HIV-endemic countries.

Aging, Health, and Quality of Life for Older People Living With HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review and Proposed Conceptual Framework

OBJECTIVE

The number of people living with HIV (PLWH) over 50 years old in sub-Saharan Africa is predicted to triple in the coming decades, to 6-10 million. Yet, there is a paucity of data on the determinants of health and quality of life for older PLWH in the region.

METHODS

A review was undertaken to describe the impact of HIV infection on aging for PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa.

RESULTS

We (a) summarize the pathophysiology and epidemiology of aging with HIV in resource-rich settings, and (b) describe how these relationships might differ in sub-Saharan Africa, (c) propose a conceptual framework to describe determinants of quality of life for older PLWH, and (d) suggest priority research areas needed to ensure long-term gains in quality of life for PLWH in the region.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in traditional, lifestyle, and envirnomental risk factors, as well as unique features of HIV epidemiology and care delivery appear to substantially alter the contribution of HIV to aging in sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, unique preferences and conceptualizations of quality of life will require novel measurement and intervention tools. An expanded research and public health infrastructure is needed to ensure that gains made in HIV prevention and treamtent are translated into long-term benefits in this region.

Childhood deprivation and later-life cognitive function in a population-based study of older rural South Africans

RATIONALE

Little research has evaluated the life course drivers of cognitive aging in South Africa.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the relationships of self-rated childhood health and father's occupation during childhood with later-life cognitive function score and whether educational attainment mediated these relationships among older South Africans living in a former region of Apartheid-era racial segregation.

METHODS

Data were from baseline assessments of "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community" (HAALSI), a population-based study of 5059 men and women aged ≥40 years in 2015 in rural Agincourt sub-district, South Africa. Childhood health, father's occupation during childhood, and years of education were self-reported in study interviews. Cognitive measures assessed time orientation, numeracy, and word recall, which were included in a z-standardized latent cognitive function score variable. Linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, and country of birth were used to estimate the total and direct effects of each childhood risk factor, and the indirect effects mediated by years of education.

RESULTS

Poor childhood health predicted lower cognitive scores (total effect = -0.28; 95% CI = -0.35, -0.21, versus good); this effect was not mediated by educational attainment. Having a father in a professional job during childhood, while rare (3% of sample), predicted better cognitive scores (total effect = 0.25; 95% CI = 0.10, 0.40, versus unskilled manual labor, 29% of sample). Half of this effect was mediated by educational attainment. Education was linearly associated with later-life cognitive function score (0.09; 95% CI = 0.09, 0.10 per year achieved).

CONCLUSION

In this post-Apartheid, rural South African context, older adults with poor self-reported childhood health or whose father worked in unskilled manual labor had relatively poor cognitive outcomes. Educational attainment strongly predicted cognitive outcomes, and appeared to be, in part, a mechanism of social stratification in later-life cognitive health in this context.

Knowledge of HIV-related disabilities and challenges in accessing care: Qualitative research from Zimbabwe

Introduction

While the rapid expansion in antiretroviral therapy access in low and middle income countries has resulted in dramatic declines in mortality rates, many people living with HIV face new or worsening experiences of disability. As nearly 1 in 20 adults are living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa–many of whom are likely to develop disabling sequelae from long-term infection, co-morbidities and side effects of their treatment–understanding the availability and accessibility of services to address HIV-related disabilities is of vital importance. The aim of this study thus is to explore knowledge of HIV-related disabilities amongst stakeholders working in the fields of HIV and disability and factors impacting uptake and provision of interventions for preventing, treating or managing HIV-related disabilities.

Methods

In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with ten stakeholders based in Harare, Zimbabwe, who were working in the fields of either disability or HIV. Stakeholders were identified through a priori stakeholder analysis. Thematic Analysis, complemented by constant comparison as described in Grounded Theory, was used to analyse findings.

Results

All key informants reported some level of knowledge of HIV-related disability, mostly from observations made in their line of work. However, they reported no interventions or policies were in place specifically to address HIV-related disability. While referrals between HIV and rehabilitation providers were not uncommon, no formal mechanisms had been established for collaborating on prevention, identification and management. Additional barriers to accessing and providing services to address HIV-related disabilities included: the availability of resources, including trained professionals, supplies and equipment in both the HIV and rehabilitation sectors; lack of disability-inclusive adaptations, particularly in HIV services; heavy centralization of available services in urban areas, without accessible, affordable transportation links; and attitudes and understanding among service providers and people living with HIV-related disabilities.

Conclusions

As people living with HIV are surviving longer, HIV-related disabilities will become a major source of disability globally, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where infection is endemic. Preventing, treating and managing HIV-related disabilities must become a key component of both HIV response efforts and rehabilitation strategies.

The ART Advantage: Health Care Utilization for Diabetes and Hypertension in Rural South Africa

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of diabetes and hypertension has increased in HIV-positive populations, but there is limited understanding of the role that antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs play in the delivery of services for these conditions. The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between ART use and utilization of health care services for diabetes and hypertension.

METHODS

Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa is a cohort of 5059 adults. The baseline study collects biomarker-based data on HIV, ART, diabetes, and hypertension and self-reported data on health care utilization. We calculated differences in care utilization for diabetes and hypertension by HIV and ART status and used multivariable logistic regressions to estimate the relationship between ART use and utilization of services for these conditions, controlling for age, sex, body mass index, education, and household wealth quintile.

RESULTS

Mean age, body mass index, hypertension, and diabetes prevalence were lower in the HIV-positive population (all P < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression showed that ART use was significantly associated with greater odds of blood pressure measurement [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04 to 1.55] and blood sugar measurement (aOR 1.26, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.51), counseling regarding exercise (aOR 1.57, 95% CI: 1.11 to 2.22), awareness of hypertension diagnosis (aOR 1.52, 95% CI: 1.12 to 2.05), and treatment for hypertension (aOR 1.63, 95% CI: 1.21 to 2.19).

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-positive patients who use ART are more likely to have received health care services for diabetes and hypertension. This apparent ART advantage suggests that ART programs may be a vehicle for strengthening health systems for chronic care.

Objective impairments of gait and balance in adults living with HIV-1 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

BACKGROUND

Gait and balance deficits are reported in adults with HIV infection and are associated with reduced quality of life. Current research suggests an increased fall-incidence in this population, with fall rates among middle-aged adults with HIV approximating that in seronegative elderly populations. Gait and postural balance rely on a complex interaction of the motor system, sensory control, and cognitive function. However, due to disease progression and complications related to ongoing inflammation, these systems may be compromised in people with HIV. Consequently, locomotor impairments may result that can contribute to higher-than-expected fall rates. The aim of this review was to synthesize the evidence regarding objective gait and balance impairments in adults with HIV, and to emphasize those which could contribute to increased fall risk.

METHODS

This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. An electronic search of published observational studies was conducted in March 2016. Methodological quality was assessed using the NIH Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. Narrative synthesis of gait and balance outcomes was performed, and meta-analyses where possible.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies were included, with fair to low methodological quality. All studies used clinical tests for gait-assessment. Gait outcomes assessed were speed, initiation-time and cadence. No studies assessed kinetics or kinematics. Balance was assessed using both instrumented and clinical tests. Outcomes were mainly related to center of pressure, postural reflex latencies, and timed clinical tests. There is some agreement that adults with HIV walk slower and have increased center of pressure excursions and -long loop postural reflex latencies, particularly under challenging conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Gait and balance impairments exist in people with HIV, resembling fall-associated parameters in the elderly. Impairments are more pronounced during challenging conditions, might be associated with disease severity, are not influenced by antiretroviral therapy, and might not be associated with peripheral neuropathy. Results should be interpreted cautiously due to overall poor methodological quality and heterogeneity. Locomotor impairments in adults with HIV are currently insufficiently quantified. Future research involving more methodological uniformity is warranted to better understand such impairments and to inform clinical decision-making, including fall-prevention strategies, in this population.

Reduction in extrapulmonary tuberculosis in context of antiretroviral therapy scale-up in rural South Africa

Scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has reduced the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in South Africa. Despite the strong association of HIV infection with extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB), the effect of ART on the epidemiology of EPTB remains undocumented. We conducted a retrospective record review of patients initiated on treatment for EPTB in 2009 (ART coverage <5%) and 2013 (ART coverage 41%) at four public hospitals in rural Mopani District, South Africa. Data were obtained from TB registers and patients' clinical records. There was a 13% decrease in overall number of TB cases, which was similar for cases registered as EPTB (n = 399 in 2009 vs. 336 in 2013; P < 0·01) and for PTB (1031 vs. 896; P < 0·01). Among EPTB cases, the proportion of miliary TB and disseminated TB decreased significantly (both P < 0·01), TB meningitis and TB of bones increased significantly (P < 0·01 and P = 0·02, respectively) and TB pleural effusion and lymphadenopathy remained the same. This study shows a reduction of EPTB cases that is similar to that of PTB in the context of the ART scale-up. The changing profile of EPTB warrants attention of healthcare workers.

Molecular insight on the binding of NNRTI to K103N mutated HIV-1 RT: molecular dynamics simulations and dynamic pharmacophore analysis

Regardless of advances in anti-HIV therapy, HIV infection remains an immense challenge due to the rapid onset of mutation instigating drug resistance. Rilpivirine is a second generation di-aryl pyrimidine (DAPY) derivative, known to effectively inhibit wild-type (WT) as well as various mutant HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT). In this study, a cumulative 240 ns of molecular dynamic (MD) simulations of WT HIV-1 RT and its corresponding K103N mutated form, complexed with rilpivirine, were performed in solution. Conformational analysis of the NNRTI inside the binding pocket (NNIBP) revealed the ability of rilpivirine to adopt different conformations, which is possibly the reason for its reasonable activity against mutant HIV-1 RT. Binding free energy (MM-PB/GB SA) calculations of rilpivirine with mutant HIV-1 RT are in agreement with experimental data. The dynamics of interaction patterns were investigated based on the MD simulations using dynophores, a novel approach for MD-based ligand-target interaction mapping. The results from this interaction profile analysis suggest an alternate interaction between the linker N atom of rilpivirine and Lys 101, potentially providing the stability for ligand binding. PCA analysis and per residue fluctuation has highlighted the significant role of flexible thumb and finger sub-domains of RT in its biological activity. This study investigated the underlying reason for rilpivirine's improved inhibitory profile against mutant RT, which could be helpful to understand the molecular basis of HIV-1 RT drug resistance and design novel NNRTIs with improved drug resistance tolerance.

Community perceptions of repeat HIV-testing: experiences of the ANRS 12249 Treatment as Prevention trial in rural South Africa

In the context of the ANRS 12249 Treatment as Prevention (TasP) trial, we investigated perceptions of regular and repeat HIV-testing in rural KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa), an area of very high HIV prevalence and incidence. We conducted two qualitative studies, before (2010) and during the early implementation stages of the trial (2013-2014), to appreciate the evolution in community perceptions of repeat HIV-testing over this period of rapid changes in HIV-testing and treatment approaches. Repeated focus group discussions were organized with young adults, older adults and mixed groups. Repeat and regular HIV-testing was overall well perceived before, and well received during, trial implementation. Yet community members were not able to articulate reasons why people might want to test regularly or repeatedly, apart from individual sexual risk-taking. Repeat home-based HIV-testing was considered as feasible and convenient, and described as more acceptable than clinic-based HIV-testing, mostly because of privacy and confidentiality. However, socially regulated discourses around appropriate sexual behaviour and perceptions of stigma and prejudice regarding HIV and sexual risk-taking were consistently reported. This study suggests several avenues to improve HIV-testing acceptability, including implementing diverse and personalised approaches to HIV-testing and care, and providing opportunities for antiretroviral therapy initiation and care at home.

Expectations about future health and longevity in Kenyan and Ugandan communities receiving a universal test-and-treat intervention in the SEARCH trial

Expectations about future health and longevity are important determinants of individuals’ decisions to invest in physical and human capital. Few population-level studies have measured subjective expectations and examined how they are affected by scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We assessed these expectations in communities receiving annual HIV testing and universal ART. Longitudinal data on expectations were collected at baseline and one year later in 16 intervention communities participating in the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) trial of the test and treat strategy in Kenya and Uganda (NCT01864603). A random sample of households with and without an HIV-positive adult was selected after baseline HIV testing. Individuals’ expectations about survival to 50, 60, 70, and 80 years of age, as well as future health status and economic well-being, were measured using a Likert scale. Primary outcomes were binary variables indicating participants who reported being very likely or almost certain to survive to advanced ages. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine trends in expectations as well as associations with HIV status and viral load for HIV-positive individuals. Data were obtained from 3126 adults at baseline and 3977 adults in year 1, with 2926 adults participating in both waves. HIV-negative adults were more likely to have favorable expectations about survival to 60 years than HIV-positive adults with detectable viral load (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.87, 95% CI 1.53–2.30), as were HIV-positive adults with undetectable viral load (AOR 1.41, 95% CI 1.13–1.77). Favorable expectations about survival to 60 years were more likely for all groups in year 1 compared to baseline (AOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.31–1.77). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that universal ART leads to improved population-level expectations about future health and well-being. Future research from the SEARCH trial will help determine whether these changes are causally driven by the provision of universal ART.

The HIV Epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa is Aging: Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa

We use the individual-level data from all available Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from 27 sub-Saharan African countries conducted between 2003 and 2012 (40 population-based and nationally representative surveys in total) to calculate HIV testing consent rates and HIV prevalence for each country separately, as well as for the pooled sample. The pooled sample comprised of 427,130 individuals. In most countries HIV prevalence in adults aged 45 years and above is higher than in the total population. We further show that over the past decade HIV prevalence has increased in older age groups, while it has decreased in younger ones. While the age patterns of HIV consent rates vary across the 27 countries included in our sample, analysis of the pooled sample across all countries reveals a u-shaped relationship with lowest consent rates around age 35 years and higher consent rates among younger and older people. We argue that future DHS and other population-based HIV surveys should offer HIV testing to all adults without age limits.

Green environment and incident depression in South Africa: a geospatial analysis and mental health implications in a resource-limited setting

BACKGROUND

Unprecedented levels of habitat transformation and rapid urbanisation are changing the way individuals interrelate with the natural environment in developing countries with high economic disparities. Although the potential benefit of green environments for mental health has been recognised, population-level evidence to this effect is scarce. We investigated the effect of green living environment in potentially countering incident depression in a nationally representative survey in South Africa.

METHODS

We used panel data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (SA-NIDS). Our study used SA-NIDS data from three waves: wave 1 (2008), wave 2 (2010), and wave 3 (2012). Households were sampled on the basis of a stratified two-stage cluster design. In the first stage, 400 primary sampling units were selected for inclusion. In the second stage, two clusters of 12 dwelling units each were drawn from within each primary sampling unit (or 24 dwelling units per unit). Household and individual adult questionnaires were administered to participants. The main outcome, incident depression (ie, incident cohort of 11 156 study participants without significant depression symptoms at their first entry into SA-NIDS), was assessed in the adult survey via a ten item version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale; a total score of ten or higher was used as a cutoff to indicate significant depressive symptoms. Each participant was assigned a value for green living space via a satellite-derived normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) based on the GPS coordinates of their household location.

FINDINGS

Overall, we found uneven benefit of NDVI on incident depression among our study participants. Although the green living environment showed limited benefit across the study population as a whole, our final analysis based on logistic regression models showed that higher NDVI was a predictor of lower incident depression among middle-income compared with low-income participants (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·98, 0·97-0·99, p<0·0001), although when this analysis was broken down by race, its positive effect was particularly evident amongst African individuals. Living in rural areas was linked to lower odds of incident depression (aOR 0·71, 0·55-0·92, p=0·011) compared with study participants residing in urban informal areas that often lack formal planning.

INTERPRETATION

Our results imply the importance of green environments for mental wellbeing in sub-Saharan African settings experiencing rapid urbanisation, economic and epidemiological transition, reaffirming the need to incorporate environmental services and benefits for sustainable socioeconomic development.

FUNDING

South African Medical Research Council, National Institutes of Health, and Academy of Finland.

Early antiretroviral therapy and potent second-line drugs could decrease HIV incidence of drug resistance

Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the risk of drug-sensitive HIV transmission but may increase the transmission of drug-resistant HIV. We used a mathematical model to estimate the long-term population-level benefits of ART and determine the scenarios under which earlier ART (treatment at 1 year post-infection, on average) could decrease simultaneously both total and drug-resistant HIV incidence (new infections). We constructed an infection-age-structured mathematical model that tracked the transmission rates over the course of infection and modelled the patients' life expectancy as a function of ART initiation timing. We fitted this model to the annual AIDS incidence and death data directly, and to resistance data and demographic data indirectly among men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco. Using counterfactual scenarios, we assessed the impact on total and drug-resistant HIV incidence of ART initiation timing, frequency of acquired drug resistance, and second-line drug effectiveness (defined as the combination of resistance monitoring, biomedical drug efficacy and adherence). Earlier ART initiation could decrease the number of both total and drug-resistant HIV incidence when second-line drug effectiveness is sufficiently high (greater than 80%), but increase the proportion of new infections that are drug resistant. Thus, resistance may paradoxically appear to be increasing while actually decreasing.

Increasing procaspase 8 expression using repurposed drugs to induce HIV infected cell death in ex vivo patient cells

HIV persists because a reservoir of latently infected CD4 T cells do not express viral proteins and are indistinguishable from uninfected cells. One approach to HIV cure suggests that reactivating HIV will activate cytotoxic pathways; yet when tested in vivo, reactivating cells do not die sufficiently to reduce cell-associated HIV DNA levels. We recently showed that following reactivation from latency, HIV infected cells generate the HIV specific cytotoxic protein Casp8p41 which is produced by HIV protease cleaving procaspase 8. However, cell death is prevented, possibly due to low procaspase 8 expression. Here, we tested whether increasing procaspase 8 levels in CD4 T cells will produce more Casp8p41 following HIV reactivation, causing more reactivated cells to die. Screening 1277 FDA approved drugs identified 168 that increased procaspase 8 expression by at least 1.7-fold. Of these 30 were tested for anti-HIV effects in an acute HIV_IIIb infection model, and 9 drugs at physiologic relevant levels significantly reduced cell-associated HIV DNA. Primary CD4 T cells from ART suppressed HIV patients were treated with one of these 9 drugs and reactivated with αCD3/αCD28. Four drugs significantly increased Casp8p41 levels following HIV reactivation, and decreased total cell associated HIV DNA levels (flurbiprofen: p = 0.014; doxycycline: p = 0.044; indomethacin: p = 0.025; bezafibrate: P = 0.018) without effecting the viability of uninfected cells. Thus procaspase 8 levels can be increased pharmacologically and, in the context of HIV reactivation, increase Casp8p41 causing death of reactivating cells and decreased HIV DNA levels. Future studies will be required to define the clinical utility of this or similar approaches.

Mobility and Clinic Switching Among Postpartum Women Considered Lost to HIV Care in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

Retention in HIV care, particularly among postpartum women, is a challenge to national antiretroviral therapy programs. Retention estimates may be underestimated because of unreported transfers. We explored mobility and clinic switching among patients considered lost to follow-up (LTFU).

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

METHODS

Of 788 women initiating antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy at 6 public clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa, 300 (38.1%) were LTFU (no visit ≥3 months). We manually searched for these women in the South African National Health Laboratory Services database to assess continuity of HIV care. We used geographic information system tools to map mobility to new facilities.

RESULTS

Over one-third (37.6%) of women showed evidence of continued HIV care after LTFU. Of these, 67.0% continued care in the same province as the origin clinic. Compared with those who traveled outside of the province for care, these same-province "clinic shoppers" stayed out-of-care longer {median 373 days [interquartile range (IQR): 175-790] vs. 175.5 days (IQR: 74-371)} and had a lower CD4 cell count on re-entry [median 327 cells/μL (IQR: 196-576) vs. 493 cells/μL (IQR: 213-557). When considering all women with additional evidence of care as engaged in care, cohort LTFU dropped from 38.1% to 25.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence of continued care after LTFU and identified local and national clinic mobility among postpartum women. Laboratory records do not show all clinic visits and manual matching may have been under- or overestimated. A national health database linked to a unique identifier is necessary to improve reporting and patient care among highly mobile populations.

Antiretroviral Drug Use in a Cross-Sectional Population Survey in Africa: NIMH Project Accept (HPTN 043)

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral (ARV) drug treatment benefits the treated individual and can prevent HIV transmission. We assessed ARV drug use in a community-randomized trial that evaluated the impact of behavioral interventions on HIV incidence.

METHODS

Samples were collected in a cross-sectional survey after a 3-year intervention period. ARV drug testing was performed using samples from HIV-infected adults at 4 study sites (Zimbabwe; Tanzania; KwaZulu-Natal and Soweto, South Africa; survey period 2009-2011) using an assay that detects 20 ARV drugs (6 nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors, 3 nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and 9 protease inhibitors; maraviroc; raltegravir).

RESULTS

ARV drugs were detected in 2011 (27.4%) of 7347 samples; 88.1% had 1 nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors ± 1-2 nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors. ARV drug detection was associated with sex (women>men), pregnancy, older age (>24 years), and study site (P < 0.0001 for all 4 variables). ARV drugs were also more frequently detected in adults who were widowed (P = 0.006) or unemployed (P = 0.02). ARV drug use was more frequent in intervention versus control communities early in the survey (P = 0.01), with a significant increase in control (P = 0.004) but not in intervention communities during the survey period. In KwaZulu-Natal, a 1% increase in ARV drug use was associated with a 0.14% absolute decrease in HIV incidence (P = 0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

This study used an objective, biomedical approach to assess ARV drug use on a population level. This analysis identified factors associated with ARV drug use and provided information on ARV drug use over time. ARV drug use was associated with lower HIV incidence at 1 study site.

Metabolic Syndrome After HIV Acquisition in South African Women

BACKGROUND

Noncommunicable diseases are common among chronically infected patients with HIV in the developed world, but little is known about these conditions in African cohorts. We assessed the epidemiology of metabolic syndrome among young South African women during the first 3 years after HIV acquisition.

METHODS

A total of 160 women were followed prospectively in the CAPRISA 002 Acute Infection study. Metabolic syndrome was defined as a constellation of hyperlipidemia, hypertension, hyperglycemia/diabetes, and abdominal obesity. Time trends were assessed using generalized estimation equation models.

RESULTS

Median age was 24 years and body mass index 27 kg/m. Prevalence of metabolic syndrome at infection was 8.7% increasing to 19.2% over 36 months (P = 0.001). The proportion of women with body mass index >30 kg/m increased from 34.4% to 47.7% (P = 0.004), those with abnormal waist circumference and elevated blood pressure increased from 33.5% to 44.3% (P = 0.060) and 23.8% to 43.9% (P < 0.001), respectively. Incidence of metabolic syndrome was 9.13/100 person-years (95% CI: 6.02 to 13.28). Predictors of metabolic syndrome were age (per year increase odds ratio (OR) = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.16), time postinfection (per year OR = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.92), family history of diabetes (OR = 3.13; 95% CI: 1.71 to 5.72), and the human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-B*81:01 allele (OR = 2.95; 95% CI: 1.21 to 7.17), whereas any HLA-B*57 or B*58:01 alleles were protective (OR = 0.34; 95% CI: 0.15 to 0.77). HIV-1 RNA (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.62 to 1.27) and CD4 count (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.11) did not predict metabolic syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

The high burden of metabolic conditions in young South African HIV-infected women highlights the need to integrate noncommunicable disease and HIV care programs. Interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease must start at HIV diagnosis, rather than later during the disease course.

Behavioural disinhibition in the general population during the antiretroviral therapy roll-out in Sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Improved life expectancy and reduced transmission probabilities due to ART may result in behavioural disinhibition - that is an increase in sexual risk behaviour in response to a perceived lower risk of HIV. We examined trends in sexual risk behaviour in the general population of sub-Saharan African countries 1999-2015.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed scientific literature of sexual behaviour and reviewed trends in Demographic and Health Surveys. A meta-analysis on four indicators of sexual risk behaviour was performed: unprotected sex, multiple sexual partners, commercial sex and prevalence of sexually transmitted infections.

RESULTS

Only two peer-reviewed studies met our inclusion criteria, while our review of DHS data spanned 18 countries and 16 years (1999-2015). We found conflicting trends in sexual risk behaviour. Reported unprotected sex decreased consistently across the 18 countries, for both sexes. In contrast, reporting multiple partners was decreasing over the period 1999 to the mid-2000s, yet has been consistently increasing thereafter. Similar trends were found for reported sexually transmitted infections and commercial sex (men only).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, we found no clear evidence of behavioural disinhibition due to expanded access to ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Substantial increases in condom use coincided with increases in reported multiple partners, commercial sex and sexually transmitted infections, especially during the period of ART scale-up. Further research is needed into how these changes might affect HIV transmission.

Uptake of HIV testing in Burkina Faso: an assessment of individual and community-level determinants

Background

Previous studies have highlighted a range of individual determinants associated with HIV testing but few have assessed the role of contextual factors. The objective of this paper is to examine the influence of both individual and community-level determinants of HIV testing uptake in Burkina Faso.

Methods

Using nationally representative cross-sectional data from the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey, the determinants of lifetime HIV testing were examined for sexually active women (n = 14,656) and men (n = 5680) using modified Poisson regression models.

Results

One third of women (36%; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 33–37%) reported having ever been tested for HIV compared to a quarter of men (26%; 95% CI: 24–27%). For both genders, age, education, religious affiliation, household wealth, employment, media exposure, sexual behaviors, and HIV knowledge were associated with HIV testing. After adjustment, women living in communities where the following characteristics were higher than the median were more likely to report uptake of HIV testing: knowledge of where to access testing (Prevalence Ratio [PR] = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.34–1.48), willing to buy food from an infected vendor (PR = 2.06; 95% CI: 1.31–3.24), highest wealth quintiles (PR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.10–1.27), not working year-round (PR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.84–0.96), and high media exposure (PR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03–1.19). Men living in communities where the proportion of respondents were more educated (PR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.07–1.41) than the median were more likely to be tested.

Conclusions

This study shed light on potential mechanisms through which HIV testing could be increased in Burkina Faso. Both individual and contextual factors should be considered to design effective strategies for scaling-up HIV testing.

Evolution and patterns of global health financing 1995-2014: development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

BACKGROUND

An adequate amount of prepaid resources for health is important to ensure access to health services and for the pursuit of universal health coverage. Previous studies on global health financing have described the relationship between economic development and health financing. In this study, we further explore global health financing trends and examine how the sources of funds used, types of services purchased, and development assistance for health disbursed change with economic development. We also identify countries that deviate from the trends.

METHODS

We estimated national health spending by type of care and by source, including development assistance for health, based on a diverse set of data including programme reports, budget data, national estimates, and 964 National Health Accounts. These data represent health spending for 184 countries from 1995 through 2014. We converted these data into a common inflation-adjusted and purchasing power-adjusted currency, and used non-linear regression methods to model the relationship between health financing, time, and economic development.

FINDINGS

Between 1995 and 2014, economic development was positively associated with total health spending and a shift away from a reliance on development assistance and out-of-pocket (OOP) towards government spending. The largest absolute increase in spending was in high-income countries, which increased to purchasing power-adjusted $5221 per capita based on an annual growth rate of 3·0%. The largest health spending growth rates were in upper-middle-income (5·9) and lower-middle-income groups (5·0), which both increased spending at more than 5% per year, and spent $914 and $267 per capita in 2014, respectively. Spending in low-income countries grew nearly as fast, at 4·6%, and health spending increased from $51 to $120 per capita. In 2014, 59·2% of all health spending was financed by the government, although in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, 29·1% and 58·0% of spending was OOP spending and 35·7% and 3·0% of spending was development assistance. Recent growth in development assistance for health has been tepid; between 2010 and 2016, it grew annually at 1·8%, and reached US$37·6 billion in 2016. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of variation revolving around these averages. 29 countries spend at least 50% more than expected per capita, based on their level of economic development alone, whereas 11 countries spend less than 50% their expected amount.

INTERPRETATION

Health spending remains disparate, with low-income and lower-middle-income countries increasing spending in absolute terms the least, and relying heavily on OOP spending and development assistance. Moreover, tremendous variation shows that neither time nor economic development guarantee adequate prepaid health resources, which are vital for the pursuit of universal health coverage.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Predicting the Need for Third-Line Antiretroviral Therapy by Identifying Patients at High Risk for Failing Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

Although third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) is available in South Africa's public sector, its cost is substantially higher than first and second line. Identifying risk factors for failure on second-line treatment remains crucial to reduce the need for third-line drugs. We conducted a case-control study including 194 adult patients (≥18 years; 70 cases and 124 controls) who initiated second-line ART in Johannesburg, South Africa. Unconditional logistic regression was used to assess predictors of virologic failure (defined as 2 consecutive viral load measures ≥1000 copies/mL, ≥3 months after switching to second line). Variables included a social instability index, ART adherence, self-reported as well as diagnosed adverse drug reactions (ADRs), HIV disclosure, depression, and factors affecting access to HIV clinics. Overall 60.0% of cases and 54.0% of controls were female. Mean ages of cases and controls were 41.8 ± 9.6 and 43.3 ± 8.0, respectively. Virologic failure was predicted by ART adherence <90% [odds ratio (OR) 4.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.1-10.5], younger age (<40 years of age; OR 0.6; 95% CI: 0.3-1.1), high social instability (OR 3.8; 95% CI: 1.30-11.5), self-reported ADR (OR 1.9; 95% CI: 1.0-3.5), disclosure to friends/colleagues rather than partner/relatives (OR 3.4; 95% CI: 1.3-9.1), and medium/high depression compared to low/no depression (OR 4.4; 95% CI: 1.5-13.4). Our results suggest complex socioeconomic factors contributing to risk of virologic failure, possibly by impacting ART adherence, among patients on second-line therapy in South Africa. Identifying patients with possible indicators of nonadherence could facilitate targeted interventions to reduce the risk of second-line treatment failure and mitigate the demand for third-line regimens.

From HIV infection to therapeutic response: a population-based longitudinal HIV cascade-of-care study in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Standard approaches to estimation of losses in the HIV cascade of care are typically cross-sectional and do not include the population stages before linkage to clinical care. We used indiviual-level longitudinal cascade data, transition by transition, including population stages, both to identify the health-system losses in the cascade and to show the differences in inference between standard methods and the longitudinal approach.

METHODS

We used non-parametric survival analysis to estimate a longitudinal HIV care cascade for a large population of people with HIV residing in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We linked data from a longitudinal population health surveillance (which is maintained by the Africa Health Research Institute) with patient records from the local public-sector HIV treatment programme (contained in an electronic clinical HIV treatment and care database, ARTemis). We followed up all people who had been newly detected as having HIV between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2011, across six cascade stages: three population stages (first positive HIV test, HIV status knowledge, and linkage to care) and three clinical stages (eligibility for antiretroviral therapy [ART], initiation of ART, and therapeutic response). We compared our estimates to cross-sectional cascades in the same population. We estimated the cumulative incidence of reaching a particular cascade stage at a specific time with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

FINDINGS

Our population consisted of 5205 individuals with HIV who were followed up for 24 031 person-years. We recorded 598 deaths. 4539 individuals gained knowledge of their positive HIV status, 2818 were linked to care, 2151 became eligible for ART, 1839 began ART, and 1456 had successful responses to therapy. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to adjust for censorship due to the end of data collection, and found that 8 years after testing positive in the population health surveillance, 16% had died. Among living patients, 82% knew their HIV status, 45% were linked to care, 39% were eligible for ART, 35% initiated ART, and 33% had reached therapeutic response. Median times to transition for these cascade stages were 52 months, 52 months, 20 months, 3 months, and 9 months, respectively. Compared with the population stages in the cascade, the transitions across the clinical stages were fast. Over calendar time, rates of linkage to care have decreased and patients presenting for the first time for care were, on average, healthier.

INTERPRETATION

HIV programmes should focus on linkage to care as the most important bottleneck in the cascade. Cascade estimation should be longitudinal rather than cross-sectional and start with the population stages preceding clinical care.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, PEPFAR.

Determinants of time from HIV infection to linkage-to-care in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To estimate time from HIV infection to linkage-to-care and its determinants. Linkage-to-care is usually assessed using the date of HIV diagnosis as the starting point for exposure time. However, timing of diagnosis is likely endogenous to linkage, leading to bias in linkage estimation.

DESIGN

We used longitudinal HIV serosurvey data from a large population-based HIV incidence cohort in KwaZulu-Natal (2004-2013) to estimate time of HIV infection. We linked these data to patient records from a public-sector HIV treatment and care program to determine time from infection to linkage (defined using the date of the first CD4 cell count).

METHODS

We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate time from infection to linkage and the effects of the following covariates on this time: sex, age, education, food security, socioeconomic status, area of residence, distance to clinics, knowledge of HIV status, and whether other household members have initiated antiretroviral therapy.

RESULTS

We estimated that it would take an average of 4.9 years for 50% of HIV seroconverters to be linked to care (95% confidence intervals: 4.2-5.7). Among all cohort members who were linked to care, the median CD4 cell count at linkage was 350 cells/μl (95% confidence interval: 330-380). Men and participants aged less than 30 years were found to have the slowest rates of linkage-to-care. Time to linkage became shorter over calendar time.

CONCLUSION

Average time from HIV infection to linkage-to-care is long and needs to be reduced to ensure that HIV treatment-as-prevention policies are effective. Targeted interventions for men and young individuals have the largest potential to improve linkage rates.

The population-level impact of public-sector antiretroviral therapy rollout on adult mortality in rural Malawi

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence from health and demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) has shown that increasing access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is reducing mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, due to limited vital statistics registration in many of the countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, there is limited evidence of the magnitude of ART’s effect outside of specific HDSS sites. This paper leverages longitudinal household/family roster data from the Malawi Longitudinal Survey of Families and Health (MLSFH) to estimate the effect of ART availability in public clinics on population-level mortality based on a geographically dispersed sample of individuals in rural Malawi.

OBJECTIVE

We seek to provide evidence on the population-level magnitude of the ART-associated mortality decline in rural Malawi and confirm that this population is experiencing similar declines in mortality as those seen in HDSS sites.

METHODS

We analyze longitudinal household/family-roster data from four waves of the MLSFH to estimate mortality change after the introduction of ART to study areas. We analyze life expectancy using the Kaplan–Meier estimator and examine how the mortality hazard changed over time by individual characteristics with Cox regression.

RESULTS

In the four years following rollout of ART, life expectancy at age 15 increased by 3.1 years (95% CI 1.1, 5.1), and median length of life rose by over ten years.

CONTRIBUTION

Our observations show that the increased availability of ART resulted in a substantial and sustained reversal of mortality trends in SSA and assuage concerns that the post-ART reversals in mortality are not occurring at the same magnitude outside of specific HDSSs.

Changes in elevated cholesterol in the era of tenofovir in South Africa: risk factors, clinical management and outcomes

OBJECTIVES

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been associated with unfavourable lipid profile changes and increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). With a growing population on ART in South Africa, there has been concern about the increase in noncommunicable diseases such as CVD. We determined risk factors associated with increased total cholesterol (TC) in a large cohort on ART and describe the clinical management thereof.

METHODS

We conducted an observational cohort study of ART-naïve adults initiating standard first-line ART in a large urban clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. TC was measured annually for most patients. A proportional hazards regression model was used to determine risk factors associated with incident high TC (≥ 6 mmol/L).

RESULTS

Significant risk factors included initial regimen non-tenofovir vs. tenofovir [hazard ratio (HR) 1.54; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-2.08], age ≥40 vs. <30 years (HR 3.22; 95% CI 2.07-4.99), body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m² (HR 1.65; 95% CI 1.18-2.31) and BMI 25-29.9 kg/m² (HR 1.70; 95% CI 1.30-2.23) vs. 18-24.9 kg/m² , and baseline CD4 count < 50 cells/μL (HR 1.55; 95% CI 1.10-2.20) and 50-99 cells/μL (HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.00-1.97) vs. > 200 cells/μL. Two-thirds of patients with high TC were given cholesterol-lowering drugs, after repeat TC measurements about 12 months apart, while 31.8% were likely to have received dietary counselling only.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, higher BMI, lower CD4 count and a non-tenofovir regimen were risk factors for incident elevated TC. Current guidelines do not indicate regular cholesterol testing at ART clinic visits, which are the main exposure to regular clinical monitoring for most HIV-positive individuals. If regular cholesterol monitoring is conducted, improvements can be made to identify and treat patients sooner.

Incidence and risk factors for hypertension among HIV patients in rural Tanzania - A prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Scarce data are available on the epidemiology of hypertension among HIV patients in rural sub-Saharan Africa. We explored the prevalence, incidence and risk factors for incident hypertension among patients who were enrolled in a rural HIV cohort in Tanzania.

METHODS

Prospective longitudinal study including HIV patients enrolled in the Kilombero and Ulanga Antiretroviral Cohort between 2013 and 2015. Non-ART naïve subjects at baseline and pregnant women during follow-up were excluded from the analysis. Incident hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mmHg on two consecutive visits. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of baseline characteristics and incident hypertension.

RESULTS

Among 955 ART-naïve, eligible subjects, 111 (11.6%) were hypertensive at recruitment. Ten women were excluded due to pregnancy. The remaining 834 individuals contributed 7967 person-months to follow-up (median 231 days, IQR 119-421) and 80 (9.6%) of them developed hypertension during a median follow-up of 144 days from time of enrolment into the cohort [incidence rate 120.0 cases/1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval (CI) 97.2-150.0]. ART was started in 630 (75.5%) patients, with a median follow-up on ART of 7 months (IQR 4-14). Cox regression models identified age [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.34 per 10 years increase, 95% CI 1.07-1.68, p = 0.010], body mass index (aHR per 5 kg/m2 1.45, 95% CI 1.07-1.99, p = 0.018) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (aHR < 60 versus ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 3.79, 95% CI 1.60-8.99, p = 0.003) as independent risk factors for hypertension development.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence and incidence of hypertension were high in our cohort. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors predicted incident hypertension, but no association was observed with immunological or ART status. These data support the implementation of routine hypertension screening and integrated management into HIV programmes in rural sub-Saharan Africa.

Non-communicable disease syndemics: poverty, depression, and diabetes among low-income populations

The co-occurrence of health burdens in transitioning populations, particularly in specific socioeconomic and cultural contexts, calls for conceptual frameworks to improve understanding of risk factors, so as to better design and implement prevention and intervention programmes to address comorbidities. The concept of a syndemic, developed by medical anthropologists, provides such a framework for preventing and treating comorbidities. The term syndemic refers to synergistic health problems that affect the health of a population within the context of persistent social and economic inequalities. Until now, syndemic theory has been applied to comorbid health problems in poor immigrant communities in high-income countries with limited translation, and in low-income or middle-income countries. In this Series paper, we examine the application of syndemic theory to comorbidities and multimorbidities in low-income and middle-income countries. We employ diabetes as an exemplar and discuss its comorbidity with HIV in Kenya, tuberculosis in India, and depression in South Africa. Using a model of syndemics that addresses transactional pathophysiology, socioeconomic conditions, health system structures, and cultural context, we illustrate the different syndemics across these countries and the potential benefit of syndemic care to patients. We conclude with recommendations for research and systems of care to address syndemics in low-income and middle-income country settings.

HIV testing practices and the potential role of HIV self-testing among men who have sex with men in Mexico

The objective of this study was to characterize HIV testing practices among men who have sex with men in Mexico and intention to use HIV self-testing. In 2012, members of one of the largest social/sexual networking websites for men who have sex with men in Latin America completed an anonymous online survey. This analysis was restricted to HIV-uninfected men who have sex with men residing in Mexico. Multivariable logistic regression models were fit to assess factors associated with HIV testing and intention to use a HIV self-test. Of 4537 respondents, 70.9% reported ever having a HIV test, of whom 75.5% reported testing at least yearly. The majority (94.3%) indicated that they would use a HIV home self-test if it were available. Participants identifying as bisexual less often reported ever HIV testing compared to those identifying as gay/homosexual (adjusted odds ratio = 0.52, 95% confidence interval: 0.44-0.62). Having a physical exam in the past year was associated with increased ever HIV testing (adjusted odds ratio = 4.35, 95% confidence interval: 3.73-5.07), but associated with decreased interest in HIV self-testing (adjusted odds ratio = 0.66, 95% confidence interval: 0.48-0.89). The high intention to use HIV home self-testing supports the use of this method as an acceptable alternative to clinic- or hospital-based HIV testing.

Trends in the burden of HIV mortality after roll-out of antiretroviral therapy in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: an observational community cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) substantially decreases morbidity and mortality in people living with HIV. In this study, we describe population-level trends in the adult life expectancy and trends in the residual burden of HIV mortality after the roll-out of a public sector ART programme in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, one of the populations with the most severe HIV epidemics in the world.

METHODS

Data come from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), an observational community cohort study in the uMkhanyakude district in northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used non-parametric survival analysis methods to estimate gains in the population-wide life expectancy at age 15 years since the introduction of ART, and the shortfall of the population-wide adult life expectancy compared with that of the HIV-negative population (ie, the life expectancy deficit). Life expectancy gains and deficits were further disaggregated by age and cause of death with demographic decomposition methods.

FINDINGS

Covering the calendar years 2001 through to 2014, we obtained information on 93 903 adults who jointly contribute 535 42 8 person-years of observation to the analyses and 9992 deaths. Since the roll-out of ART in 2004, adult life expectancy increased by 15·2 years for men (95% CI 12·4-17·8) and 17·2 years for women (14·5-20·2). Reductions in pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV-related mortality account for 79·7% of the total life expectancy gains in men (8·4 adult life-years), and 90·7% in women (12·8 adult life-years). For men, 9·5% is the result of a decline in external injuries. By 2014, the life expectancy deficit had decreased to 1·2 years for men (-2·9 to 5·8) and to 5·3 years for women (2·6-7·8). In 2011-14, pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV were responsible for 84·9% of the life expectancy deficit in men and 80·8% in women.

INTERPRETATION

The burden of HIV on adult mortality in this population is rapidly shrinking, but remains large for women, despite their better engagement with HIV-care services. Gains in adult life-years lived as well as the present life expectancy deficit are almost exclusively due to differences in mortality attributed to HIV and pulmonary tuberculosis.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institutes of Health.