Dissecting the genetics of complex traits using summary association statistics

Improving genetic prediction by leveraging genetic correlations among human diseases and traits

Genomic prediction has the potential to contribute to precision medicine. However, to date, the utility of such predictors is limited due to low accuracy for most traits. Here theory and simulation study are used to demonstrate that widespread pleiotropy among phenotypes can be utilised to improve genomic risk prediction. We show how a genetic predictor can be created as a weighted index that combines published genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics across many different traits. We apply this framework to predict risk of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in the Psychiatric Genomics consortium data, finding substantial heterogeneity in prediction accuracy increases across cohorts. For six additional phenotypes in the UK Biobank data, we find increases in prediction accuracy ranging from 0.7% for height to 47% for type 2 diabetes, when using a multi-trait predictor that combines published summary statistics from multiple traits, as compared to a predictor based only on one trait.

The new genetics of intelligence

Intelligence - the ability to learn, reason and solve problems - is at the forefront of behavioural genetic research. Intelligence is highly heritable and predicts important educational, occupational and health outcomes better than any other trait. Recent genome-wide association studies have successfully identified inherited genome sequence differences that account for 20% of the 50% heritability of intelligence. These findings open new avenues for research into the causes and consequences of intelligence using genome-wide polygenic scores that aggregate the effects of thousands of genetic variants.

Statistical methods to detect novel genetic variants using publicly available GWAS summary data

We propose statistical methods to detect novel genetic variants using only genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary data without access to raw genotype and phenotype data. With more and more summary data being posted for public access in the post GWAS era, the proposed methods are practically very useful to identify additional interesting genetic variants and shed lights on the underlying disease mechanism. We illustrate the utility of our proposed methods with application to GWAS meta-analysis results of fasting glucose from the international MAGIC consortium. We found several novel genome-wide significant loci that are worth further study.

Trauma exposure interacts with the genetic risk of bipolar disorder in alcohol misuse of US soldiers

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether trauma exposure moderates the genetic correlation between substance use disorders and psychiatric disorders, we tested whether trauma exposure modifies the association of genetic risks for mental disorders with alcohol misuse and nicotine dependence (ND) symptoms.

METHODS

High-resolution polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were calculated for 10 732 US Army soldiers (8346 trauma-exposed and 2386 trauma-unexposed) based on genome-wide association studies of bipolar disorder (BD), major depressive disorder, and schizophrenia.

RESULTS

The main finding was a significant BD PRS-by-trauma interaction with respect to alcohol misuse (P = 6.07 × 10^-3 ). We observed a positive correlation between BD PRS and alcohol misuse in trauma-exposed soldiers (r = 0.029, P = 7.5 × 10^-3 ) and a negative correlation in trauma-unexposed soldiers (r = -0.071, P = 5.61 × 10^-4 ). Consistent (nominally significant) result with concordant effect, directions were observed in the schizophrenia PRS-by-trauma interaction analysis. The variants included in the BD PRS-by-trauma interaction showed significant enrichments for gene ontologies related to high voltage-gated calcium channel activity (GO:0008331, P = 1.51 × 10^-5 ; GO:1990454, P = 4.49 × 10^-6 ; GO:0030315, P = 2.07 × 10^-6 ) and for Beta1/Beta2 adrenergic receptor signaling pathways (P = 2.61 × 10^-4 ).

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that the genetic overlap between alcohol misuse and BD is significantly moderated by trauma exposure. This provides molecular insight into the complex mechanisms that link substance abuse, psychiatric disorders, and trauma exposure.

Multi-trait analysis of genome-wide association summary statistics using MTAG

We introduce multi-trait analysis of GWAS (MTAG), a method for joint analysis of summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of different traits, possibly from overlapping samples. We apply MTAG to summary statistics for depressive symptoms (N eff = 354,862), neuroticism (N = 168,105), and subjective well-being (N = 388,538). As compared to the 32, 9, and 13 genome-wide significant loci identified in the single-trait GWAS (most of which are themselves novel), MTAG increases the number of associated loci to 64, 37, and 49, respectively. Moreover, association statistics from MTAG yield more informative bioinformatics analyses and increase the variance explained by polygenic scores by approximately 25%, matching theoretical expectations.

Association Between Schizophrenia-Related Polygenic Liability and the Occurrence and Level of Mood-Incongruent Psychotic Symptoms in Bipolar Disorder

Importance

Bipolar disorder (BD) overlaps schizophrenia in its clinical presentation and genetic liability. Alternative approaches to patient stratification beyond current diagnostic categories are needed to understand the underlying disease processes and mechanisms.

Objective

To investigate the association between common-variant liability for schizophrenia, indexed by polygenic risk scores (PRSs), and psychotic presentations of BD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This case-control study in the United Kingdom used multinomial logistic regression to estimate differential PRS associations across categories of cases and controls. Participants included in the final analyses were 4436 cases of BD from the Bipolar Disorder Research Network. These cases were compared with the genotypic data for 4976 cases of schizophrenia and 9012 controls from the Type 1 Diabetes Genetics Consortium study and the Generation Scotland study. Data were collected between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013. Data analysis was conducted from March 1, 2016, to February 28, 2017.

Exposures

Standardized PRSs, calculated using alleles with an association threshold of P < .05 in the second Psychiatric Genomics Consortium genome-wide association study of schizophrenia, were adjusted for the first 10 population principal components and genotyping platforms.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Multinomial logit models estimated PRS associations with BD stratified by Research Diagnostic Criteria subtypes of BD, by lifetime occurrence of psychosis, and by lifetime mood-incongruent psychotic features. Ordinal logistic regression examined PRS associations across levels of mood incongruence. Ratings were derived from the Schedules for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry interview and the Bipolar Affective Disorder Dimension Scale.

Results

Of the 4436 cases of BD, 2966 (67%) were female patients, and the mean (SD) age at interview was 46 [12] years. Across clinical phenotypes, there was an exposure-response gradient, with the strongest PRS association for schizophrenia (risk ratio [RR] = 1.94; 95% CI, 1.86-2.01), followed by schizoaffective BD (RR = 1.37; 95% CI, 1.22-1.54), bipolar I disorder subtype (RR = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.24-1.36), and bipolar II disorder subtype (RR = 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97-1.11). Within BD cases, there was an effect gradient, indexed by the nature of psychosis. Prominent mood-incongruent psychotic features had the strongest association (RR = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.36-1.57), followed by mood-congruent psychosis (RR = 1.24; 95% CI, 1.17-1.33) and BD with no history of psychosis (RR = 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04-1.15).

Conclusions and Relevance

For the first time to date, a study shows a polygenic-risk gradient across schizophrenia and BD, indexed by the occurrence and level of mood-incongruent psychotic symptoms.

A Selection Operator for Summary Association Statistics Reveals Allelic Heterogeneity of Complex Traits

In recent years, as a secondary analysis in genome-wide association studies (GWASs), conditional and joint multiple-SNP analysis (GCTA-COJO) has been successful in allowing the discovery of additional association signals within detected loci. This suggests that many loci mapped in GWASs harbor more than a single causal variant. In order to interpret the underlying mechanism regulating a complex trait of interest in each discovered locus, researchers must assess the magnitude of allelic heterogeneity within the locus. We developed a penalized selection operator for jointly analyzing multiple variants (SOJO) within each mapped locus on the basis of LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression derived from summary association statistics. We found that, compared to stepwise conditional multiple-SNP analysis, SOJO provided better sensitivity and specificity in predicting the number of alleles associated with complex traits in each locus. SOJO suggested causal variants potentially missed by GCTA-COJO. Compared to using top variants from genome-wide significant loci in GWAS, using SOJO increased the proportion of variance prediction for height by 65% without additional discovery samples or additional loci in the genome. Our empirical results indicate that human height is not only a highly polygenic trait, but also has high allelic heterogeneity within its established hundreds of loci.

A Powerful Approach to Estimating Annotation-Stratified Genetic Covariance via GWAS Summary Statistics

Despite the success of large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on complex traits, our understanding of their genetic architecture is far from complete. Jointly modeling multiple traits' genetic profiles has provided insights into the shared genetic basis of many complex traits. However, large-scale inference sets a high bar for both statistical power and biological interpretability. Here we introduce a principled framework to estimate annotation-stratified genetic covariance between traits using GWAS summary statistics. Through theoretical and numerical analyses, we demonstrate that our method provides accurate covariance estimates, thereby enabling researchers to dissect both the shared and distinct genetic architecture across traits to better understand their etiologies. Among 50 complex traits with publicly accessible GWAS summary statistics (Ntotal≈ 4.5 million), we identified more than 170 pairs with statistically significant genetic covariance. In particular, we found strong genetic covariance between late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), two major neurodegenerative diseases, in single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with high minor allele frequencies and in SNPs located in the predicted functional genome. Joint analysis of LOAD, ALS, and other traits highlights LOAD's correlation with cognitive traits and hints at an autoimmune component for ALS.

A putative causal relationship between genetically determined female body shape and posttraumatic stress disorder

Background

The nature and underlying mechanisms of the observed increased vulnerability to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in women are unclear.

Methods

We investigated the genetic overlap of PTSD with anthropometric traits and reproductive behaviors and functions in women. The analysis was conducted using female-specific summary statistics from large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and a cohort of 3577 European American women (966 PTSD cases and 2611 trauma-exposed controls). We applied a high-resolution polygenic score approach and Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate genetic correlations and causal relationships.

Results

We observed an inverse association of PTSD with genetically determined anthropometric traits related to body shape, independent of body mass index (BMI). The top association was related to BMI-adjusted waist circumference (WC_adj; R = –0.079, P < 0.001, Q = 0.011). We estimated a relative decrease of 64.6% (95% confidence interval = 27.5–82.7) in the risk of PTSD per 1-SD increase in WC_adj. MR-Egger regression intercept analysis showed no evidence of pleiotropic effects in this association (P_pleiotropy = 0.979). We also observed associations of genetically determined WC_adj with age at first sexual intercourse and number of sexual partners (P = 0.013 and P < 0.001, respectively).

Conclusions

There is a putative causal relationship between genetically determined female body shape and PTSD, which could be mediated by evolutionary mechanisms involved in human sexual behaviors.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13073-017-0491-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Local Genetic Correlation Gives Insights into the Shared Genetic Architecture of Complex Traits

Although genetic correlations between complex traits provide valuable insights into epidemiological and etiological studies, a precise quantification of which genomic regions disproportionately contribute to the genome-wide correlation is currently lacking. Here, we introduce ρ-HESS, a technique to quantify the correlation between pairs of traits due to genetic variation at a small region in the genome. Our approach requires GWAS summary data only and makes no distributional assumption on the causal variant effect sizes while accounting for linkage disequilibrium (LD) and overlapping GWAS samples. We analyzed large-scale GWAS summary data across 36 quantitative traits, and identified 25 genomic regions that contribute significantly to the genetic correlation among these traits. Notably, we find 6 genomic regions that contribute to the genetic correlation of 10 pairs of traits that show negligible genome-wide correlation, further showcasing the power of local genetic correlation analyses. Finally, we report the distribution of local genetic correlations across the genome for 55 pairs of traits that show putative causal relationships.

Parent-of-origin-environment interactions in case-parent triads with or without independent controls

With case–parent triad data, one can frequently deduce parent of origin of the child's alleles. This allows a parent‐of‐origin (PoO) effect to be estimated as the ratio of relative risks associated with the alleles inherited from the mother and the father, respectively. A possible cause of PoO effects is DNA methylation, leading to genomic imprinting. Because environmental exposures may influence methylation patterns, gene–environment interaction studies should be extended to allow for interactions between PoO effects and environmental exposures (i.e., PoOxE). One should thus search for loci where the environmental exposure modifies the PoO effect.

We have developed an extensive framework to analyze PoOxE effects in genome‐wide association studies (GWAS), based on complete or incomplete case–parent triads with or without independent control triads. The interaction approach is based on analyzing triads in each exposure stratum using maximum likelihood estimation in a log‐linear model. Interactions are then tested applying a Wald‐based posttest of parameters across strata. Our framework includes a complete setup for power calculations. We have implemented the models in the R software package Haplin.

To illustrate our PoOxE test, we applied the new methodology to top hits from our previous GWAS, assessing whether smoking during the periconceptional period modifies PoO effects on cleft palate only.

Prospects of Fine-Mapping Trait-Associated Genomic Regions by Using Summary Statistics from Genome-wide Association Studies

During the past few years, various novel statistical methods have been developed for fine-mapping with the use of summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Although these approaches require information about the linkage disequilibrium (LD) between variants, there has not been a comprehensive evaluation of how estimation of the LD structure from reference genotype panels performs in comparison with that from the original individual-level GWAS data. Using population genotype data from Finland and the UK Biobank, we show here that a reference panel of 1,000 individuals from the target population is adequate for a GWAS cohort of up to 10,000 individuals, whereas smaller panels, such as those from the 1000 Genomes Project, should be avoided. We also show, both theoretically and empirically, that the size of the reference panel needs to scale with the GWAS sample size; this has important consequences for the application of these methods in ongoing GWAS meta-analyses and large biobank studies. We conclude by providing software tools and by recommending practices for sharing LD information to more efficiently exploit summary statistics in genetics research.

Concepts, estimation and interpretation of SNP-based heritability

Narrow-sense heritability (h²) is an important genetic parameter that quantifies the proportion of phenotypic variance in a trait attributable to the additive genetic variation generated by all causal variants. Estimation of h² previously relied on closely related individuals, but recent developments allow estimation of the variance explained by all SNPs used in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in conventionally unrelated individuals, that is, the SNP-based heritability (). In this Perspective, we discuss recently developed methods to estimate for a complex trait (and genetic correlation between traits) using individual-level or summary GWAS data. We discuss issues that could influence the accuracy of , definitions, assumptions and interpretations of the models, and pitfalls of misusing the methods and misinterpreting the models and results.

Gene Expression Contributes to the Recent Evolution of Host Resistance in a Model Host Parasite System

Heritable population differences in immune gene expression following infection can reveal mechanisms of host immune evolution. We compared gene expression in infected and uninfected threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from two natural populations that differ in resistance to a native cestode parasite, Schistocephalus solidus. Genes in both the innate and adaptive immune system were differentially expressed as a function of host population, infection status, and their interaction. These genes were enriched for loci controlling immune functions known to differ between host populations or in response to infection. Coexpression network analysis identified two distinct processes contributing to resistance: parasite survival and suppression of growth. Comparing networks between populations showed resistant fish have a dynamic expression profile while susceptible fish are static. In summary, recent evolutionary divergence between two vertebrate populations has generated population-specific gene expression responses to parasite infection, affecting parasite establishment and growth.

Quantifying the Genetic Correlation between Multiple Cancer Types

Background: Many cancers share specific genetic risk factors, including both rare high-penetrance mutations and common SNPs identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, little is known about the overall shared heritability across cancers. Quantifying the extent to which two distinct cancers share genetic origin will give insights to shared biological mechanisms underlying cancer and inform design for future genetic association studies.Methods: In this study, we estimated the pair-wise genetic correlation between six cancer types (breast, colorectal, lung, ovarian, pancreatic, and prostate) using cancer-specific GWAS summary statistics data based on 66,958 case and 70,665 control subjects of European ancestry. We also estimated genetic correlations between cancers and 14 noncancer diseases and traits.Results: After adjusting for 15 pair-wise genetic correlation tests between cancers, we found significant (P < 0.003) genetic correlations between pancreatic and colorectal cancer (rg = 0.55, P = 0.003), lung and colorectal cancer (rg = 0.31, P = 0.001). We also found suggestive genetic correlations between lung and breast cancer (rg = 0.27, P = 0.009), and colorectal and breast cancer (rg = 0.22, P = 0.01). In contrast, we found no evidence that prostate cancer shared an appreciable proportion of heritability with other cancers. After adjusting for 84 tests studying genetic correlations between cancer types and other traits (Bonferroni-corrected P value: 0.0006), only the genetic correlation between lung cancer and smoking remained significant (rg = 0.41, P = 1.03 × 10-6). We also observed nominally significant genetic correlations between body mass index and all cancers except ovarian cancer.Conclusions: Our results highlight novel genetic correlations and lend support to previous observational studies that have observed links between cancers and risk factors.Impact: This study demonstrates modest genetic correlations between cancers; in particular, breast, colorectal, and lung cancer share some degree of genetic basis. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(9); 1427-35. ©2017 AACR.

Genome organization: connecting the developmental origins of disease and genetic variation

An adverse early life environment can increase the risk of metabolic and other disorders later in life. Genetic variation can modify an individual's susceptibility to these environmental challenges. These gene by environment interactions are important, but difficult, to dissect. The nucleus is the primary organelle where environmental responses impact directly on the genetic variants within the genome, resulting in changes to the biology of the genome and ultimately the phenotype. Understanding genome biology requires the integration of the linear DNA sequence, epigenetic modifications and nuclear proteins that are present within the nucleus. The interactions between these layers of information may be captured in the emergent spatial genome organization. As such genome organization represents a key research area for decoding the role of genetic variation in the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease.

Joint modeling of genetically correlated diseases and functional annotations increases accuracy of polygenic risk prediction

Accurate prediction of disease risk based on genetic factors is an important goal in human genetics research and precision medicine. Advanced prediction models will lead to more effective disease prevention and treatment strategies. Despite the identification of thousands of disease-associated genetic variants through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in the past decade, accuracy of genetic risk prediction remains moderate for most diseases, which is largely due to the challenges in both identifying all the functionally relevant variants and accurately estimating their effect sizes. In this work, we introduce PleioPred, a principled framework that leverages pleiotropy and functional annotations in genetic risk prediction for complex diseases. PleioPred uses GWAS summary statistics as its input, and jointly models multiple genetically correlated diseases and a variety of external information including linkage disequilibrium and diverse functional annotations to increase the accuracy of risk prediction. Through comprehensive simulations and real data analyses on Crohn’s disease, celiac disease and type-II diabetes, we demonstrate that our approach can substantially increase the accuracy of polygenic risk prediction and risk population stratification, i.e. PleioPred can significantly better separate type-II diabetes patients with early and late onset ages, illustrating its potential clinical application. Furthermore, we show that the increment in prediction accuracy is significantly correlated with the genetic correlation between the predicted and jointly modeled diseases.

Genetic risk prediction plays a significant role in precision medicine. Accurate prediction models could have great impact on disease prevention and treatment strategies. However, prediction accuracies for most complex diseases remain moderate mainly due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying the effects of genetic variants from millions of markers, limited access to individual-level genotype data, and lack of efficient computational methods. Up to now, most methods have been focused on predicting disease risk using data from a single trait. With the discovery of genetic correlations among many complex diseases, incorporating data of genetically correlated diseases could have the potential to increase prediction accuracy. Current statistical methods are not able to fully exploit the richness of these kinds of data to take into account the shared genetic architecture. To make use of commonly available GWAS summary statistics, we propose a novel method to address these challenges by jointly modeling genetically correlated diseases and integrating genomic functional annotations. We demonstrate the substantial improvement in accuracy in both extensive simulation studies and real data analysis of Crohn’s disease, celiac disease and type-II diabetes. Furthermore, we show that the increment in prediction accuracy is significantly correlated with the genetic correlation between the predicted and jointly modeled diseases.

Functional Architectures of Local and Distal Regulation of Gene Expression in Multiple Human Tissues

Genetic variants that modulate gene expression levels play an important role in the etiology of human diseases and complex traits. Although large-scale eQTL mapping studies routinely identify many local eQTLs, the molecular mechanisms by which genetic variants regulate expression remain unclear, particularly for distal eQTLs, which these studies are not well powered to detect. Here, we leveraged all variants (not just those that pass stringent significance thresholds) to analyze the functional architecture of local and distal regulation of gene expression in 15 human tissues by employing an extension of stratified LD-score regression that produces robust results in simulations. The top enriched functional categories in local regulation of peripheral-blood gene expression included coding regions (11.41×), conserved regions (4.67×), and four histone marks (p < 5 × 10^-5 for all enrichments); local enrichments were similar across the 15 tissues. We also observed substantial enrichments for distal regulation of peripheral-blood gene expression: coding regions (4.47×), conserved regions (4.51×), and two histone marks (p < 3 × 10^-7 for all enrichments). Analyses of the genetic correlation of gene expression across tissues confirmed that local regulation of gene expression is largely shared across tissues but that distal regulation is highly tissue specific. Our results elucidate the functional components of the genetic architecture of local and distal regulation of gene expression.