Life expectancies of South African adults starting antiretroviral treatment: collaborative analysis of cohort studies

Length of secondary schooling and risk of HIV infection in Botswana: evidence from a natural experiment

BACKGROUND

An estimated 2·1 million individuals are newly infected with HIV every year. Cross-sectional and longitudinal studies have reported conflicting evidence for the association between education and HIV risk, and no randomised trial has identified a causal effect for education on HIV incidence. We aimed to use a policy reform in secondary schooling in Botswana to identify the causal effect of length of schooling on new HIV infection.

METHODS

Data for HIV biomarkers and demographics were obtained from the nationally representative household 2004 and 2008 Botswana AIDS Impact Surveys (N=7018). In 1996, Botswana reformed the grade structure of secondary school, expanding access to grade ten and increasing educational attainment for affected cohorts. Using exposure to the policy reform as an instrumental variable, we used two-stage least squares to estimate the causal effect of years of schooling on the cumulative probability that an individual contracted HIV up to their age at the time of the survey. We also assessed the cost-effectiveness of secondary schooling as an HIV prevention intervention in comparison to other established interventions.

FINDINGS

Each additional year of secondary schooling caused by the policy change led to an absolute reduction in the cumulative risk of HIV infection of 8·1 percentage points (p=0·008), relative to a baseline prevalence of 25·5% in the pre-reform 1980 birth cohort. Effects were particularly large in women (11·6 percentage points, p=0·046). Results were robust to a wide array of sensitivity analyses. Secondary school was cost effective as an HIV prevention intervention by standard metrics (cost per HIV infection averted was US$27 753).

INTERPRETATION

Additional years of secondary schooling had a large protective effect against HIV risk in Botswana, particularly for women. Increasing progression through secondary school could be a cost-effective HIV prevention measure in HIV-endemic settings, in addition to yielding other societal benefits.

FUNDING

Takemi Program in International Health at the Harvard T.H.Chan School of Public Health, Belgian American Educational Foundation, Fernand Lazard Foundation, Boston University, National Institutes of Health.

HIV reservoirs as obstacles and opportunities for an HIV cure

The persistence of HIV reservoirs remains a formidable obstacle to achieving sustained virologic remission in HIV-infected individuals after antiretroviral therapy (ART) is discontinued, even if plasma viremia has been successfully suppressed for prolonged periods of time. Numerous approaches aimed at eradicating the virus, as well as maintaining its prolonged suppression in the absence of ART, have had little success. A better understanding of the pathophysiologic nature of HIV reservoirs and the impact of various interventions on their persistence is essential for the development of successful therapeutic strategies against HIV or the long-term control of infection. Here, we discuss the persistent HIV reservoir as a barrier to cure as well as the current therapeutic strategies aimed at eliminating or controlling the virus in the absence of ART.

Rates of HIV testing and diagnosis in South Africa: successes and challenges

BACKGROUND

UNAIDS aims for 90% of HIV-positive individuals to be diagnosed by 2020, but few attempts have been made in developing countries to estimate the fraction of the HIV-positive population that has been diagnosed.

METHODS

To estimate the rate of HIV diagnosis in South Africa, reported numbers of HIV tests performed in the South African public and private health sectors were aggregated, and estimates of HIV prevalence in individuals tested for HIV were combined. The data were integrated into a mathematical model of the South African HIV epidemic, which was additionally calibrated to estimates of the fraction of the population ever tested for HIV, as reported in three national household surveys.

RESULTS

The fraction of HIV-positive adults who were undiagnosed declined from more than 80% in the early 2000s to 23.7% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 23.1-24.3] in 2012. The undiagnosed proportion in 2012 was substantially higher in men (31.9%, 95% CI 29.7-34.3) than in women (19.0%, 95% CI 17.9-19.9). Projected probabilities of experiencing disease progression (CD4 cell count <350 cells/μl) without diagnosis are more than 50% for most HIV-positive adults over the age of 40. The fraction of HIV-positive adults who are undiagnosed is projected to decline to 8.9% by 2020 if current targets (10 million tests per annum) are met.

CONCLUSION

South Africa has made significant progress in expanding access to HIV testing, and at current testing rates, the target of 90% of HIV-positive adults diagnosed by 2020 is likely to be reached. However, uptake is relatively low in men and older adults.

Cost-effectiveness of first-line antiretroviral therapy for HIV-infected African children less than 3 years of age

Background:

The International Maternal, Pediatric, and Adolescent Clinical Trials P1060 trial demonstrated superior outcomes for HIV-infected children less than 3 years old initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) with lopinavir/ritonavir compared to nevirapine, but lopinavir/ritonavir is four-fold costlier.

Design/methods:

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-Pediatric model, with published and P1060 data, to project outcomes under three strategies: no ART; first-line nevirapine (with second-line lopinavir/ritonavir); and first-line lopinavir/ritonavir (second-line nevirapine). The base-case examined South African children initiating ART at age 12 months; sensitivity analyses varied all key model parameters. Outcomes included life expectancy, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios [ICERs; dollars/year of life saved ($/YLS)]. We considered interventions with ICERs less than 1× per-capita gross domestic product (South Africa: $7500)/YLS as ‘very cost-effective,’ interventions with ICERs below 3× gross domestic product/YLS as ‘cost-effective,’ and interventions leading to longer life expectancy and lower lifetime costs as ‘cost-saving’.

Results:

Projected life expectancy was 2.8 years with no ART. Both ART regimens markedly improved life expectancy and were very cost-effective, compared to no ART. First-line lopinavir/ritonavir led to longer life expectancy (28.8 years) and lower lifetime costs ($41 350/person, from lower second-line costs) than first-line nevirapine (27.6 years, $44 030). First-line lopinavir/ritonavir remained cost-saving or very cost-effective compared to first-line nevirapine unless: liquid lopinavir/ritonavir led to two-fold higher virologic failure rates or 15-fold greater costs than in the base-case, or second-line ART following first-line lopinavir/ritonavir was very ineffective.

Conclusions:

On the basis of P1060 data, first-line lopinavir/ritonavir leads to longer life expectancy and is cost-saving or very cost-effective compared to first-line nevirapine. This supports WHO guidelines, but increasing access to pediatric ART is critical regardless of the regimen used.

Risk factors and mortality associated with resistance to first-line antiretroviral therapy: multicentric cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses

BACKGROUND

Understanding the factors associated with HIV drug resistance development and subsequent mortality is important to improve clinical patient management.

METHODS

Analysis of individual electronic health records from 4 HIV programs in Malawi, Kenya, Uganda, and Cambodia, linked to data from 5 cross-sectional virological studies conducted among patients receiving first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for ≥6 months. Adjusted logistic and Cox-regression models were used to identify risk factors for drug resistance and subsequent mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 2257 patients (62% women) were included. At ART initiation, median CD4 cell count was 100 cells per microliter (interquartile range, 40-165). A median of 25.1 months after therapy start, 18% of patients had ≥400 and 12.4% ≥1000 HIV RNA copies per milliliter. Of 180 patients with drug resistance data, 83.9% had major resistance(s) to nucleoside or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and 74.4% dual resistance. Resistance to nevirapine, lamivudine, and efavirenz was common, and 6% had etravirine cross-resistance. Risk factors for resistance were young age (<35 years), low CD4 cell count (<200 cells/μL), and poor treatment adherence. During 4978 person-years of follow-up after virological testing (median = 31.8 months), 57 deaths occurred [rate = 1.14/100 person-years; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88 to 1.48]. Mortality was higher in patients with resistance (hazard ratio = 2.08; 95% CI: 1.07 to 4.07 vs. <400 copies/mL), and older age (hazard ratio = 2.41; 95% CI: 1.24 to 4.71 for ≥43 vs. ≤34 years), and lower in those receiving ART for >30 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings underline the importance of optimal treatment adherence and adequate virological response monitoring and emphasize the need for resistance surveillance initiatives even in HIV programs achieving high virological suppression rates.

Proposed research plan for the derivation of a new Cardiac Risk Index

The Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) was incorporated into the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) recommendations for the preoperative evaluation of the cardiac patient for noncardiac surgery. The purpose of this review was to analyze studies on cardiovascular clinical risk prediction that had used the previous "standard best" model, the RCRI, as a comparator. This review aims to determine whether modification of the current risk factors or adoption of other risk factors or other risk indices would improve upon the discrimination of cardiac risk prediction when compared with the RCRI. This is necessary because recent risk prediction models have shown better discrimination for major adverse cardiac events, and the pre-eminence of the RCRI is now in question. There is now a need for a new "best standard" cardiovascular risk prediction model to supersede the RCRI. This is desirable because it would: (1) allow for a global standard of cardiovascular risk assessment; (2) provide a standard comparator in all risk prediction research; (3) result in comparable data collection; and (4) allow for individual patient data meta-analyses. This should lead to continued progress in cardiovascular clinical risk prediction. A review of the current evidence suggests that to improve the preoperative clinical risk stratification for adverse cardiac events, a new risk stratification model be built that maintains the clinical risk factors identified in the RCRI, with the following modifications: (1) additional glomerular filtration rate cut points (as opposed to a single creatinine cut point); (2) age; (3) a history of peripheral vascular disease; (4) functional capacity; and (5) a specific surgical procedural category. One would expect a substantial improvement in the discrimination of the RCRI with this approach. Although most noncardiac surgeries will benefit from a standard "generic" cardiovascular risk prediction model, there are data to suggest that patients with human immunodeficiency virus disease who are undergoing vascular surgery may benefit from specific cardiovascular risk prediction models.

Participation dynamics in population-based longitudinal HIV surveillance in rural South Africa

Population-based HIV surveillance is crucial to inform understanding of the HIV pandemic and evaluate HIV interventions, but little is known about longitudinal participation patterns in such settings. We investigated the dynamics of longitudinal participation patterns in a high HIV prevalence surveillance setting in rural South Africa between 2003 and 2012, taking into account demographic dynamics. At any given survey round, 22,708 to 30,495 persons were eligible. Although the yearly participation rates were relatively modest (26% to 46%), cumulative rates increased substantially with multiple recruitment opportunities: 68% of eligible persons participated at least once, 48% at least twice and 31% at least three times after five survey rounds. We identified two types of study fatigue: at the individual level, contact and consent rates decreased with multiple recruitment opportunities and, at the population level, these rates also decreased over calendar time, independently of multiple recruitment opportunities. Using sequence analysis and hierarchical clustering, we identified three broad individual participation profiles: consenters (20%), switchers (43%) and refusers (37%). Men were over represented among refusers, women among consenters, and temporary non-residents among switchers. The specific subgroup of persons who were systemically not contacted or refusers constitutes a challenge for population-based surveillance and interventions.

'For a mere cough, men must just chew Conjex, gain strength, and continue working': the provider construction and tuberculosis care-seeking implications in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND

Delay by men in seeking healthcare results in their higher mortality while on HIV or tuberculosis (TB) treatment and contributes to ongoing community-level disease transmission before going on treatment.

OBJECTIVE

To understand masculinity's role in delay in healthcare seeking for men, with a focus on TB-suggestive symptoms.

DESIGN

Data were collected between March 2011 and March 2012 in low-income suburbs in urban Blantyre using focus group discussions with community members (n=8) and health workers (n=2), in-depth interviews with 20 TB patients (female=14) and 20 uninvestigated chronic coughers (female=8), and a 3-day participatory workshop with 27 health stakeholder representatives. The research process drew to a large extent on grounded theory principles in the manner of Strauss and Corbin (1998) and also Charmaz (1995).

RESULTS

Role descriptions by both men and women in the study universally assigned men as primary material providers for their immediate family, that is, the ones earning and bringing livelihood and additional material needs. In a context where collectivism was valued, men were also expected to lead the provision of support to wider kin. Successful role enactment was considered key to achieving recognition as an adequate man; at the same time, job scarcity and insecurity, and low earnings gravely impeded men. Pressures to generate continuing income then meant constantly looking for jobs, or working continuously to retain insecure jobs or to raise money through self-employment. All this led men to relegate their health considerations.

CONCLUSIONS

Early engagement with formal healthcare is critical to dealing with TB and HIV. However, role constructions as portrayed for men in this study, along with the opportunity costs of acknowledging illness seem, in conditions of vulnerability, important barriers to care-seeking. There is a need to address hidden care-seeking costs and to consider more complex interventions, including reducing precarity, in efforts to improve men's engagement with their health.

Psychological interventions for Common Mental Disorders for People Living With HIV in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effectiveness of structured psychological interventions against common mental disorders (CMD) in people living with HIV infection (PLWH), in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).

METHODS

Systematic review of psychological interventions for CMD from LMIC for PLWH, with two-stage screening carried out independently by 2 authors.

RESULTS

Of 190 studies, 5 met inclusion criteria. These were randomised-controlled trials based on the principles of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) and were effective in reducing CMD symptoms in PLWH. Follow-up of study participants ranged from 6 weeks to 12 months with multiple tools utilised to measure the primary outcome. Four studies showed a high risk of bias, while 1 study from Iran met low risk of bias in all 6 domains of the Cochrane risk of bias tool and all 22 items of the CONSORT instrument.

CONCLUSION

There is a need for more robust and adequately powered studies to further explore CBT-based interventions in PLWH. Future studies should report on components of the psychological interventions, fidelity measurement and training, including supervision of delivering agents, particularly where lay health workers are the delivering agent.

From pills to patients: an evaluation of data sources to determine the number of people living with HIV who are receiving antiretroviral therapy in Germany

Background

This study aimed to determine the number of people living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2006 and 2013 in Germany by using the available numbers of antiretroviral drug prescriptions and treatment data from the ClinSurv HIV cohort (CSH).

Methods

The CSH is a multi-centre, open, long-term observational cohort study with an average number of 10.400 patients in the study period 2006–2013. ART has been documented on average for 86% of those CSH patients and medication history is well documented in the CSH.

The antiretroviral prescription data (APD) are reported by billing centres for pharmacies covering >99% of nationwide pharmacy sales of all individuals with statutory health insurance (SHI) in Germany (~85%). Exactly one thiacytidine-containing medication (TCM) with either emtricitabine or lamivudine is present in all antiretroviral fixed-dose combinations (FDCs). Thus, each daily dose of TCM documented in the APD is presumed to be representative of one person per day receiving ART. The proportion of non-TCM regimen days in the CSH was used to determine the corresponding number of individuals in the APD.

Results

The proportion of CSH patients receiving TCMs increased continuously over time (from 85% to 93%; 2006–2013). In contrast, treatment interruptions declined remarkably (from 11% to 2%; 2006–2013). The total number of HIV-infected people with ART experience in Germany increased from 31,500 (95% CI 31,000-32,000) individuals to 54,000 (95% CI 53,000-55,500) over the observation period (including 16.3% without SHI and persons who had interrupted ART). An average increase of approximately 2,900 persons receiving ART was observed annually in Germany.

Conclusions

A substantial increase in the number of people receiving ART was observed from 2006 to 2013 in Germany.

Currently, the majority (93%) of antiretroviral regimens in the CSH included TCMs with ongoing use of FDCs. Based on these results, the future number of people receiving ART could be estimated by exclusively using TCM prescriptions, assuming that treatment guidelines will not change with respect to TCM use in ART regimens.

'Deep down in their heart, they wish they could be given some incentives': a qualitative study on the changing roles and relations of care among home-based caregivers in Zambia

Background

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, the roll-out of antiretroviral treatment (ART) has contributed to shifting HIV care towards the management of a chronic health condition. While the balance of professional and lay tasks in HIV caregiving has been significantly altered due to changing skills requirements and task-shifting initiatives, little attention has been given to the effects of these changes on health workers’ motivation and existing care relations.

Methods

This paper draws on a cross-sectional, qualitative study that explored changes in home-based care (HBC) in the light of widespread ART rollout in the Lusaka and Kabwe districts of Zambia. Methods included observation of HBC daily activities, key informant interviews with programme staff from three local HBC organisations (n = 17) and ART clinic staff (n = 8), as well as in-depth interviews with home-based caregivers (n = 48) and HBC clients (n = 31).

Results

Since the roll-out of ART, home-based caregivers spend less time on hands-on physical care and support in the household, and are increasingly involved in specialised tasks supporting their clients’ access and adherence to ART. Despite their pride in gaining technical care skills, caregivers lament their lack of formal recognition through training, remuneration or mobility within the health system. Care relations within homes have also been altered as caregivers’ newly acquired functions of monitoring their clients while on ART are met with some ambivalence. Caregivers are under pressure to meet clients and their families’ demands, although they are no longer able to provide material support formerly associated with donor funding for HBC.

Conclusions

As their responsibilities and working environments are rapidly evolving, caregivers’ motivations are changing. It is essential to identify and address the growing tensions between an idealized rhetoric of altruistic volunteerism in home-based care, and the realities of lay worker deployment in HIV care interventions that not only shift tasks, but transform social and professional relations in ways that may profoundly influence caregivers’ motivation and quality of care.

The HIV epidemic in Southern Africa - Is an AIDS-free generation possible?

Southern Africa, home to about 20 % of the global burden of infection continues to experience high rates of new HIV infection despite substantial programmatic scale-up of treatment and prevention interventions. While several countries in the region have had substantial reductions in HIV infection, almost half a million new infections occurred in this region in 2012. Sexual transmission remains the dominant mode of transmission. A recent national household survey in Swaziland revealed an HIV prevalence of 14.3 % among 18-19 year old girls, compared to 0.8 % among their male peers. Expanded ART programmes in Southern Africa have resulted in dramatically decreased HIV incidence and HIV mortality rates. In South Africa alone, it is estimated that more than 2.1 million of the 6.1 million HIV-positive people were receiving ART by the end of 2012, and that this resulted in more than 2.7 million life-years saved, and hundreds of thousands of HIV infections averted. Biological, behavioural and structural factors all contribute to the ongoing high rates of new HIV infection; however, as the epidemic matures and mortality is reduced from increased ART coverage, epidemiological trends become hard to quantify. What is clear is that a key driver of the Southern African epidemic is the high incidence rate of infection in young women, a vulnerable population with limited prevention options. Moreover, whilst ongoing trials of combination prevention, microbicides and behavioural economics hold promise for further epidemic control, an AIDS-free generation will not be realised unless incident infections in key populations are reduced.

Informed consent for HIV cure research in South Africa: issues to consider

BACKGROUND

South Africa has made great progress in the development of HIV/AIDS testing, treatment and prevention campaigns. Yet, it is clear that prevention and treatment campaigns alone are not enough to bring this epidemic under control.

DISCUSSION

News that the "Berlin patient" and the "Mississippi baby" have both been "cured" of HIV brought hope to people living with HIV/AIDS in South Africa that a cure for HIV/AIDS is within reach. Despite the recent setbacks announced in the "Mississippi Baby" case, protocols aimed at curing HIV/AIDS are being developed in South Africa. However with evidence to suggest that participants in clinical trials do not understand the basic concepts in the informed consent process, there is concern that future participants in HIV/AIDS cure research will lack comprehension of the basic elements of future clinical trials that aims to cure HIV/AIDS and confuse research with clinical care.

SUMMARY

Research ethics committees have an important role to play in ensuring that participants understand the basic concepts discussed in the informed consent process, that they understand that research is not clinical care and they are unlikely to benefit from any early phase trials seeking to cure HIV/AIDS.

Partner-based adherence intervention for second-line antiretroviral therapy (ACTG A5234): a multinational randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Adherence is key to the success of antiretroviral therapy. Enhanced partner support might benefit patients with previous treatment failure. We aimed to assess whether an enhanced partner-based support intervention with modified directly observed therapy would improve outcomes with second-line therapy in HIV-infected patients for whom first-line therapy had failed.

METHODS

We did a multicentre, international, randomised clinical trial at nine sites in Botswana, Brazil, Haiti, Peru, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Participants aged 18 years or older for whom first-line therapy had failed, with HIV RNA concentrations greater than 1000 copies per mL and with a willing partner, were randomly assigned (1:1), via computer-generated randomisation, to receive partner-based modified directly observed therapy or standard of care. Randomisation was stratified by screening HIV RNA concentration (≤10 000 copies per mL vs >10 000 copies per mL). Participants and site investigators were not masked to group assignment. Primary outcome was confirmed virological failure (viral load >400 copies per mL) by week 48. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00608569.

FINDINGS

Between April 23, 2009, and Sept 29, 2011, we randomly assigned 259 participants to the modified directly observed therapy group (n=129) or the standard-of-care group (n=130). 34 (26%) participants in the modified directly observed therapy group achieved the primary endpoint of virological failure by week 48 compared with 23 (18%) participants in the standard-of-care group. The Kaplan-Meier estimated cumulative probability of virological failure by week 48 was 25·1% (95% CI 17·7-32·4) in the modified directly observed therapy group and 17·3% (10·8-23·7) in the standard-of-care group, for a weighted difference in standard of care versus modified directly observed therapy of -6·6% (95% CI -16·5% to 3·2%; p=0·19). 36 (14%) participants reported at least one grade 3 or higher adverse event or laboratory abnormality (n=21 in the modified directly observed therapy group and n=15 in the standard-of-care group).

INTERPRETATION

Partner-based training with modified directly observed therapy had no effect on virological suppression. The intervention does not therefore seem to be a promising strategy to increase adherence. Intensive follow-up with clinic staff might be a viable approach in this setting.

FUNDING

AIDS Clinical Trials Group and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US National Institutes of Health.

Do increasing rates of loss to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment programs imply deteriorating patient retention?

In several studies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for persons with human immunodeficiency virus infection, investigators have reported that there has been a higher rate of loss to follow-up (LTFU) among patients initiating ART in recent years than among patients who initiated ART during earlier time periods. This finding is frequently interpreted as reflecting deterioration of patient retention in the face of increasing patient loads. However, in this paper we demonstrate by simulation that transient gaps in follow-up could lead to bias when standard survival analysis techniques are applied. We created a simulated cohort of patients with different dates of ART initiation. Rates of ART interruption, ART resumption, and mortality were assumed to remain constant over time, but when we applied a standard definition of LTFU, the simulated probability of being classified LTFU at a particular ART duration was substantially higher in recently enrolled cohorts. This suggests that much of the apparent trend towards increased LTFU may be attributed to bias caused by transient interruptions in care. Alternative statistical techniques need to be used when analyzing predictors of LTFU--for example, using "prospective" definitions of LTFU in place of "retrospective" definitions. Similar considerations may apply when analyzing predictors of LTFU from treatment programs for other chronic diseases.

Equity in the national rollout of public AIDS treatment in South Africa 2004-08

Low- and middle-income country governments face the challenge of ensuring an equitable distribution of public resources, based on need rather than socioeconomic status, race or political affiliation. This study examines factors that may influence public service provision in developing countries by analysing the 2004-08 implementation of government-provided AIDS treatment in South Africa, the largest programme of its kind in the world. Despite assurances from the National Department of Health, some have raised concerns about whether the rollout was in fact conducted equitably. This study addresses these concerns. This is the first study to assemble high-quality national data on a broad set of census main place (CMP) characteristics that the public health, economic and political science literature have found influence public service provision. Multivariate logistic regression and duration (survival) analysis were used to identify characteristics associated with a more rapid public provision of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa. Overall, no clear pattern emerges of the rollout systematically favouring better-off CMPs, and in general the magnitude of statistically significant associations is small. The centralization of the early phases of the rollout to maximize ART enrolment led to higher ART coverage rates in areas where district and regional hospitals were located. Ultimately, these results demonstrate that the provision of life-saving AIDS treatment was not disproportionately delayed in disadvantaged areas. The combination of a clear policy objective, limited bureaucratic discretion and monitoring by civil society ensured equitable access to AIDS treatment. This work highlights the potential for future public investment in South Africa and other developing countries to reduce health and economic disparities.

Finding a cure for human immunodeficiency virus-1 infection

Remarkable advances have been made in the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infection, but in the entire history of the epidemic, only 1 patient has been cured. Herein we review the fundamental mechanisms that render HIV-1 infection difficult to cure and then discuss recent clinical and experimental situations in which some form of cure has been achieved. Finally, we consider approaches that are currently being taken to develop a general cure for HIV-1 infection.

The future role of CD4 cell count for monitoring antiretroviral therapy

For more than two decades, CD4 cell count measurements have been central to understanding HIV disease progression, making important clinical decisions, and monitoring the response to antiretroviral therapy (ART). In well resourced settings, the monitoring of patients on ART has been supported by routine virological monitoring. Viral load monitoring was recommended by WHO in 2013 guidelines as the preferred way to monitor people on ART, and efforts are underway to scale up access in resource-limited settings. Recent studies suggest that in situations where viral load is available and patients are virologically suppressed, long-term CD4 monitoring adds little value and stopping CD4 monitoring will have major cost savings. CD4 cell counts will continue to play an important part in initial decisions around ART initiation and clinical management, particularly for patients presenting late to care, and for treatment monitoring where viral load monitoring is restricted. However, in settings where both CD4 cell counts and viral load testing are routinely available, countries should consider reducing the frequency of CD4 cell counts or not doing routine CD4 monitoring for patients who are stable on ART.

Establishment and evaluation of a loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay for the semi-quantitative detection of HIV-1 group M virus

The past decade has witnessed a dramatic increase of anti-retroviral treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients in many African countries. Due to costs and lack of currently available commercial viral load assays, insufficient attention has been paid to therapy monitoring through measurement of plasma viral load. This challenge of patient monitoring by tests as viral load, CD4 cell count, and finally HIV drug resistance could reverse achievements already made against HIV/AIDS infection. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) has been shown to be simple, rapid and cost-effective, characteristics which make this assay suitable for viral load monitoring in resource limited settings. This paper describes a revised LAMP assay using primers in the HIV-1 integrase region. The assay can be used for semi-quantitative measurement of HIV-1 group M viral load. The lower limit of detection (LLOD) was determined as 1200copies/mL and lower limit of quantitation (LLOQ) at 9800copies/mL. Sensitivities of 82 and 86% (in 135 and 99 plasma samples respectively from Kenya) and 93% (in 112 plasma samples from Germany) and specificities of 99 and 100% were realized. HIV-1 group O and HIV-2 virus samples were not detected. This LAMP assay has the potential for semi-quantitation of HIV-1 group M viral load in resource limited countries. There is still a need for further improvement by refinement of primers in respect to detection of HIV-1 group M non-B virus.

Mortality trends in the era of antiretroviral therapy: evidence from the Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA)

BACKGROUND

The rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is one of the largest public health interventions in Eastern and Southern Africa of recent years. Its impact is well described in clinical cohort studies, but population-based evidence is rare.

METHODS

We use data from seven demographic surveillance sites that also conduct community-based HIV testing and collect information on the uptake of HIV services. We present crude death rates of adults (aged 15-64) for the period 2000-2011 by sex, HIV status, and treatment status. Parametric survival models are used to estimate age-adjusted trends in the mortality rates of people living with HIV (PLHIV) before and after the introduction of ART.

RESULTS

The pooled ALPHA Network dataset contains 2.4 million person-years of follow-up time, and 39114 deaths (6893 to PLHIV). The mortality rates of PLHIV have been relatively static before the availability of ART. Mortality declined rapidly thereafter, with typical declines between 10 and 20% per annum. Compared with the pre-ART era, the total decline in mortality rates of PLHIV exceeds 58% in all study sites with available data, and amounts to 84% for women in Masaka (Uganda). Mortality declines have been larger for women than for men; a result that is statistically significant in five sites. Apart from the early phase of treatment scale up, when the mortality of PLHIV on ART was often very high, mortality declines have been observed in PLHIV both on and off ART.

CONCLUSION

The expansion of treatment has had a large and pervasive effect on adult mortality. Mortality declines have been more pronounced for women, a factor that is often attributed to women's greater engagement with HIV services. Improvements in the timing of ART initiation have contributed to mortality reductions in PLHIV on ART, but also among those who have not (yet) started treatment because they are increasingly selected for early stage disease.

A South African public-private partnership HIV treatment model: viability and success factors

INTRODUCTION

The increasing number of people requiring HIV treatment in South Africa calls for efficient use of its human resources for health in order to ensure optimum treatment coverage and outcomes. This paper describes an innovative public-private partnership model which uses private sector doctors to treat public sector patients and ascertains the model's ability to maintain treatment outcomes over time.

METHODS

The study used a retrospective design based on the electronic records of patients who were down-referred from government hospitals to selected private general medical practitioners (GPs) between November 2005 and October 2012. In total, 2535 unique patient records from 40 GPs were reviewed. The survival functions for mortality and attrition were calculated. Cumulative incidence of mortality for different time cohorts (defined by year of treatment initiation) was also established.

RESULTS

The median number of patients per GP was 143 (IQR: 66-246). At the time of down-referral to private GPs, 13.8% of the patients had CD4 count <200 cell/mm(3), this proportion reduced to 6.6% at 12 months and 4.1% at 48 months. Similarly, 88.4% of the patients had suppressed viral load (defined as HIV-1 RNA <400 copies/ml) at 48 months. The patients' probability of survival at 12 and 48 months was 99.0% (95% CI: 98.4%-99.3%) and 89.0% (95% CI: 87.1%-90.0%) respectively. Patient retention at 48 months remained high at 94.3% (95% CI: 93.0%-95.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

The study findings demonstrate the ability of the GPs to effectively maintain patient treatment outcomes and potentially contribute to HIV treatment scale-up with the relevant support mechanism. The model demonstrates how an assisted private sector based programme can be effectively and efficiently used to either target specific health concerns, key populations or serve as a stop-gap measure to meet urgent health needs.

Simplification of antiretroviral therapy: a necessary step in the public health response to HIV/AIDS in resource-limited settings

The global scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) over the past decade represents one of the great public health and human rights achievements of recent times. Moving from an individualized treatment approach to a simplified and standardized public health approach has been critical to ART scale-up, simplifying both prescribing practices and supply chain management. In terms of the latter, the risk of stock-outs can be reduced and simplified prescribing practices support task shifting of care to nursing and other non-physician clinicians; this strategy is critical to increase access to ART care in settings where physicians are limited in number. In order to support such simplification, successive World Health Organization guidelines for ART in resource-limited settings have aimed to reduce the number of recommended options for first-line ART in such settings. Future drug and regimen choices for resource-limited settings will likely be guided by the same principles that have led to the recommendation of a single preferred regimen and will favour drugs that have the following characteristics: minimal risk of failure, efficacy and tolerability, robustness and forgiveness, no overlapping resistance in treatment sequencing, convenience, affordability, and compatibility with anti-TB and anti-hepatitis treatments.

Control, struggle, and emergent masculinities: a qualitative study of men's care-seeking determinants for chronic cough and tuberculosis symptoms in Blantyre, Malawi

Background

Men’s healthcare-seeking delay results in higher mortality while on HIV or tuberculosis (TB) treatment, and implies contribution to ongoing community-level TB transmission before initiating treatment. We investigated masculinity’s role in healthcare-seeking delay for men with TB-suggestive symptoms, with a view to developing potential interventions for men.

Methods

Data were collected during March 2011- March 2012 in three high-density suburbs in urban Blantyre. Ten focus group discussions were carried out of which eight (mixed sex = two; female only = three; male only = three) were with 74 ordinary community members, and two (both mixed sex) were with 20 health workers. Individual interviews were done with 20 TB patients (female =14) and 20 un-investigated chronic coughers (female = eight), and a three-day workshop was held with 27 health stakeholder representatives.

Results

An expectation to provide for and lead their families, and to control various aspects of their lives while facing limited employment opportunities and small incomes leaves men feeling inadequate, devoid of control, and anxious about being marginalised as men. Men were fearful about being looked at as less than men, and about their wives engaging in extramarital sex without ability to detect or monitor them. Control was a key defining feature of adequate manhood, and efforts to achieve it also led men into side-lining their health. Articulate and consistent concepts of men’s bodily strength or appropriate illness responses were absent from the accounts.

Conclusions

Facilitating men to seek care early is an urgent public health imperative, given the contexts of high HIV/AIDS prevalence but increasingly available treatment, and the role of care-seeking delay in TB transmission. Men’s struggles trying to achieve ideal images seem to influence their engagement with their health. Ambiguous views regarding some key masculinity representations and the embrace of less harmful masculinities raise questions about some common assumptions that guide work with men. Apparent ‘emergent masculinities’ might be a useful platform from which to support the transformation of harmful masculinity. Finally, the complex manifestations of masculinity indicate the need for interventions targeting men in health and TB control to assume supportive, multidimensional and long-term outlooks.

HIV-associated renal and genitourinary comorbidities in Africa

With the recent massive scale-up of access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited countries, HIV has become a chronic disease with new challenges. There is mounting evidence of an increased burden of renal and genitourinary diseases among HIV-infected persons caused by direct HIV viral effects and/or indirectly through the development of opportunistic infections, ART medication-related toxicities, and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). We review the epidemiology of HIV-associated renal and urogenital diseases, including interactions with kidney-related NCDs such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and cardiovascular disease. We also examine the current evidence regarding the impact of HIV infection on the development of urogenital diseases. Highly advisable in sub-Saharan Africa are the establishment of renal disease registries, reviews of existing clinical practice including cost-effectiveness studies, and the adoption and use of HIV-related NCD management, with training for different cadres of health providers. Epidemiological research priorities include prospective studies to evaluate the true prevalence and spectrum of HIV-related renal disease and their progression. Simple diagnostics tools should be evaluated, including urinary dipsticks and point-of-care urea and creatinine tests to screen for kidney injury in primary care settings. Study of urological manifestations of HIV can help determine the extent of disease and outcomes. As patients live longer on ART, the burden of renal and genitourological complications of HIV and of ART can be expected to increase with a commensurate urgency in both discovery and evidence-based improvements in clinical management.

Mycobacterial antigen driven activation of CD14++CD16- monocytes is a predictor of tuberculosis-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome

Paradoxical tuberculosis-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (TB-IRIS) is an aberrant inflammatory response occurring in a subset of TB-HIV co-infected patients initiating anti-retroviral therapy (ART). Here, we examined monocyte activation by prospectively quantitating pro-inflammatory plasma markers and monocyte subsets in TB-HIV co-infected patients from a South Indian cohort at baseline and following ART initiation at the time of IRIS, or at equivalent time points in non-IRIS controls. Pro-inflammatory biomarkers of innate and myeloid cell activation were increased in plasma of IRIS patients pre-ART and at the time of IRIS; this association was confirmed in a second cohort in South Africa. Increased expression of these markers correlated with elevated antigen load as measured by higher sputum culture grade and shorter duration of anti-TB therapy. Phenotypic analysis revealed the frequency of CD14⁺⁺CD16⁻ monocytes was an independent predictor of TB-IRIS, and was closely associated with plasma levels of CRP, TNF, IL-6 and tissue factor during IRIS. In addition, production of inflammatory cytokines by monocytes was higher in IRIS patients compared to controls pre-ART. These data point to a major role of mycobacterial antigen load and myeloid cell hyperactivation in the pathogenesis of TB-IRIS, and implicate monocytes and monocyte-derived cytokines as potential targets for TB-IRIS prevention or treatment.

Tuberculosis and HIV majorly impact host immune responses, resulting in immune deregulation and inflammation-driven tissue damage. Initiation of anti-retroviral therapy in patients with HIV-TB co-infection may result in immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (TB-IRIS), a disorder associated with increased immunopathology due to unfettered inflammation after CD4⁺ T-cell reconstitution. Monocytes are critical to the innate immune system and play an important role in several inflammatory conditions associated with chronic infections. Immunopathogenesis of TB-IRIS has been linked to activation of the adaptive immune response against opportunistic infection, yet the role of monocytes is still unknown. Here we investigated associations between soluble markers of monocyte activation, differential activation of monocyte subsets and TB-IRIS prospectively in two geographically distinct HIV-TB co-infected patient cohorts. Prior to ART initiation, patients who developed IRIS displayed a biosignature of elevated soluble monocyte activation markers, which were closely related to the mycobacterial antigen load in sputum samples. Amongst monocyte subsets, we observed that pre-ART circulating CD14⁺⁺CD16⁻ cell frequency independently predicted TB-IRIS and expanded during IRIS events. This monocyte subset was tightly associated with systemic markers of inflammation, and was found to produce inflammatory cytokines. Identification of this monocyte subset and its link with inflammation may lead to conception of novel therapies reducing immunopathology in TB-IRIS.

Taming HIV-related inflammation with physical activity: a matter of timing

Many sets of data indicate that HIV-infected individuals maintain a low level of chronic immune activation and inflammation even in the presence of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART). This residual immune activation seems to be associated with accelerated aging and an increased incidence of non-AIDS-defining illnesses. Several published studies suggest that physical activity is a beneficial nonpharmacological intervention to reduce chronic inflammation. However, currently available data on the potential benefits of regular physical exercises for HIV-infected individuals are limited. Nonetheless, increasing evidence suggests that the introduction of regular physical exercise in the clinical management of HIV-infected individuals may have a significant positive impact in reducing some of the long-term complications of both infection and ART. Based on a comprehensive review of the existing data, we propose that regular physical exercise should be further studied as a potential antiinflammatory, nonpharmacological approach to be used to treat HIV residual disease and non-AIDS-defining illnesses in ART-treated HIV-infected individuals.

[Long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy in Africa: current knowledge]

By the end of 2013, 11 million PLHIV were taking ARVs in Africa; application of the WHO recommendation to initiate treatment earlier (at CD4 count of 500 cells/mm3 or less) should further increase this number. Currently, twothirds of patients in Africa have been on treatment for less than five years, and less than 10% have received treatment for eight years or more. Given the historical perspective is in its early stages, the long-term impact of ARV therapy is still unclear. This article reviews the knowledge gained over the period marking the first ten years of implementation of the universal access strategy (2003-2013) in Africa, through a review of the literature documenting the long-term consequence of ARV treatment, focusing on medical care for adults with an emphasis on the patient-centered approach. The goal is to understand the interrelationships between biological and social factors and individual and collective aspects that affect the lives of PLHIV and determine the impacts of ARV treatment over the long term. The biomedical and social factors are addressed successively, based on the most significant results. Key knowledge on the long-term outcomes for PLHIVon ARV treatment offers vital information on the necessary conditions and adaptations for care systems needed to ensure the benefits of treatment endure over time.

The Linkage Outcomes of a Large-scale, Rapid Transfer of HIV-infected Patients From Hospital-based to Community-based Clinics in South Africa

BACKGROUND

President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) funding changes have resulted in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) clinic closures. We evaluated linkage to care following a large-scale patient transfer from a PEPFAR-funded, hospital-based HIV clinic to government-funded, community-based clinics in Durban.

METHODS

All adults were transferred between March and June 2012. Subjects were surveyed 5-10 months post-transfer to assess self-reported linkage to the target clinic. We validated self-reports by auditing records at 8 clinics. Overall success of transfer was estimated using linkage to care data for both reached and unreached subjects, adjusted for validation results.

RESULTS

Of the 3913 transferred patients, 756 (19%) were assigned to validation clinics; 659 (87%) of those patients were reached. Among those reached, 468 (71%) had a validated clinic record visit. Of the 46 who self-reported attending a different validation clinic than originally assigned, 39 (85%) had a validated visit. Of the 97 patients not reached, 59 (61%) had a validated visit at their assigned clinic. Based on the validation rates for reached and unreached patients, the estimated success of transfer for the cohort overall was 82%.

CONCLUSIONS

Most patients reported successful transfer to a community-based clinic, though a quarter attended a different clinic than assigned. Validation of attendance highlights that nearly 20% of patients may not have linked to care and may have experienced a treatment interruption. Optimizing transfers of HIV care to community sites requires collaboration with receiving clinics to ensure successful linkage to care.

HIV, tuberculosis, and noncommunicable diseases: what is known about the costs, effects, and cost-effectiveness of integrated care?

Unprecedented investments in health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have resulted in more than 8 million individuals on antiretroviral therapy. Such individuals experience dramatically increased survival but are increasingly at risk of developing common noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Integrating clinical care for HIV, other infectious diseases, and NCDs could make health services more effective and provide greater value. Cost-effectiveness analysis is a method to evaluate the clinical benefits and costs associated with different health care interventions and offers guidance for prioritization of investments and scale-up, especially as resources are increasingly constrained. We first examine tuberculosis and HIV as 1 example of integrated care already successfully implemented in several LMICs; we then review the published literature regarding cervical cancer and depression as 2 examples of NCDs for which integrating care with HIV services could offer excellent value. Direct evidence of the benefits of integrated services generally remains scarce; however, data suggest that improved effectiveness and reduced costs may be attained by integrating additional services with existing HIV clinical care. Further investigation into clinical outcomes and costs of care for NCDs among people living with HIV in LMICs will help to prioritize specific health care services by contributing to an understanding of the affordability and implementation of an integrated approach.

Mortality in patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies

BACKGROUND

High early mortality in patients with HIV-1 starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to Europe and North America, is well documented. Longer-term comparisons between settings have been limited by poor ascertainment of mortality in high burden African settings. This study aimed to compare mortality up to four years on ART between South Africa, Europe, and North America.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data from four South African cohorts in which patients lost to follow-up (LTF) could be linked to the national population register to determine vital status were combined with data from Europe and North America. Cumulative mortality, crude and adjusted (for characteristics at ART initiation) mortality rate ratios (relative to South Africa), and predicted mortality rates were described by region at 0-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-24, and 24-48 months on ART for the period 2001-2010. Of the adults included (30,467 [South Africa], 29,727 [Europe], and 7,160 [North America]), 20,306 (67%), 9,961 (34%), and 824 (12%) were women. Patients began treatment with markedly more advanced disease in South Africa (median CD4 count 102, 213, and 172 cells/µl in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively). High early mortality after starting ART in South Africa occurred mainly in patients starting ART with CD4 count <50 cells/µl. Cumulative mortality at 4 years was 16.6%, 4.7%, and 15.3% in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively. Mortality was initially much lower in Europe and North America than South Africa, but the differences were reduced or reversed (North America) at longer durations on ART (adjusted rate ratios 0.46, 95% CI 0.37-0.58, and 1.62, 95% CI 1.27-2.05 between 24 and 48 months on ART comparing Europe and North America to South Africa). While bias due to under-ascertainment of mortality was minimised through death registry linkage, residual bias could still be present due to differing approaches to and frequency of linkage.

CONCLUSIONS

After accounting for under-ascertainment of mortality, with increasing duration on ART, the mortality rate on HIV treatment in South Africa declines to levels comparable to or below those described in participating North American cohorts, while substantially narrowing the differential with the European cohorts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Interventions to improve or facilitate linkage to or retention in pre-ART (HIV) care and initiation of ART in low- and middle-income settings--a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Several approaches have been taken to reduce pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) losses between HIV testing and ART initiation in low- and middle-income countries, but a systematic assessment of the evidence has not yet been undertaken. The aim of this systematic review is to assess the potential for interventions to improve or facilitate linkage to or retention in pre-ART care and initiation of ART in low- and middle-income settings.

METHODS

An electronic search was conducted on Medline, Embase, Global Health, Web of Science and conference databases to identify studies describing interventions aimed at improving linkage to or retention in pre-ART care or initiation of ART. Additional searches were conducted to identify on-going trials on this topic, and experts in the field were contacted. An assessment of the risk of bias was conducted. Interventions were categorized according to key domains in the existing literature.

RESULTS

A total of 11,129 potentially relevant citations were identified, of which 24 were eligible for inclusion, with the majority (n=21) from sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, 15 on-going trials were identified. The most common interventions described under key domains included: health system interventions (i.e. integration in the setting of antenatal care); patient convenience and accessibility (i.e. point-of-care CD4 count (POC) testing with immediate results, home-based ART initiation); behaviour interventions and peer support (i.e. improved communication, patient referral and education) and incentives (i.e. food support). Several interventions showed favourable outcomes: integration of care and peer supporters increased enrolment into HIV care, medical incentives increased pre-ART retention, POC CD4 testing and food incentives increased completion of ART eligibility screening and ART initiation. Most studies focused on the general adult patient population or pregnant women. The majority of published studies were observational cohort studies, subject to an unclear risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that streamlining services to minimize patient visits, providing adequate medical and peer support, and providing incentives may decrease attrition, but the quality of the current evidence base is low. Few studies have investigated combined interventions, or assessed the impact of interventions across the HIV cascade. RESULTS from on-going trials investigating POC CD4 count testing, patient navigation, rapid ART initiation and mobile phone technology may fill the quality of evidence gap. Further high-quality studies on key population groups are required, with interventions informed by previously reported barriers to care.

Using health surveillance systems data to assess the impact of AIDS and antiretroviral treatment on adult morbidity and mortality in Botswana

Introduction

Botswana's AIDS response included free antiretroviral treatment (ART) since 2002, achieving 80% coverage of persons with CD4<350 cells/µl by 2009–10. We explored impact on mortality and HIV prevalence, analyzing surveillance and civil registration data.

Methods

Hospital natural cause admissions and deaths from the Health Statistics Unit (HSU) over 1990–2009, all-cause deaths from Midnight Bed Census (MNC) over 1990–2011, institutional and non-institutional deaths recorded in the Registry of Birth and Deaths (RBD) over 2003–2010, and antenatal sentinel surveillance (ANC) over 1992–2011 were compared to numbers of persons receiving ART. Mortality was adjusted for differential coverage and completeness of institutional and non-institutional deaths, and compared to WHO and UNAIDS Spectrum projections.

Results

HSU deaths per 1000 admissions declined 49% in adults 15–64 years over 2003–2009. RBD mortality declined 44% (807 to 452/100,000 population in adults 15–64 years) over 2003–2010, similarly in males and females. Generally, death rates were higher in males; declines were greater and earlier in younger adults, and in females. In contrast, death rates in adults 65+, particularly females increased over 2003–2006. MNC all-age post-neonatal mortality declined 46% and 63% in primary and secondary level hospitals, over 2003–2011. We estimated RBD captured 80% of adult deaths over 2006–2011. Comparing empirical, completeness-adjusted deaths to Spectrum estimates, declines over 2003–2009 were similar overall (47% vs. 54%); however, Spectrum projected larger and earlier declines particularly in women. Following stabilization and modest decreases over 1998–2002, HIV prevalence in pregnant women 15–24 and 25–29-years declined by >50% and >30% through 2011, while continuing to increase in older women.

Conclusions

Adult mortality in Botswana fell markedly as ART coverage increased. HIV prevalence declines may reflect ART-associated reductions in sexual transmission. Triangulation of surveillance system data offers a reasonable approach to evaluate impact of HIV/AIDS interventions, complementing cohort approaches that monitor individual-level health outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of PrEP in HIV/AIDS control in Zambia: a stochastic league approach

BACKGROUND

Earlier antiretroviral therapy initiation and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) prevent HIV, although at a substantial cost. We use mathematical modeling to compare the cost-effectiveness and economic affordability of antiretroviral-based prevention strategies in rural Macha, Zambia.

METHODS

We compare the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness over 40 years of a baseline scenario (treatment initiation at CD4 <350 cells/μL) with treatment initiation at CD4 <500 cells per microliter, and PrEP (prioritized to the most sexually active, or nonprioritized). A strategy is cost effective when the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is <$3480 (<3 times Zambian per capita GDP). Stochastic league tables then predict the optimal intervention per budget level.

RESULTS

All scenarios will reduce the prevalence from 6.2% (interquartile range, 5.8%-6.6%) in 2014 to about 1% after 40 years. Compared with the baseline, 16% of infections will be averted with prioritized PrEP plus treatment at CD4 <350, 34% with treatment at CD4 <500, and 59% with nonprioritized PrEP plus treatment at CD4 <500. Only treating at CD4 <500 is cost effective: ICER of $62 ($46-$75). Nonprioritized PrEP plus treating at CD4 <500 is borderline cost effective: ICER of $5861 ($3959-$8483). Initiating treatment at CD4 <500 requires a budget increase from $20 million to $25 million over 40 years, with a 96.7% probability of being the optimal intervention. PrEP should only be considered when the budget exceeds $180 million.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment initiation at CD4 <500 is a cost-effective HIV prevention approach that will require a modest increase in budget. Although adding PrEP will avert more infections, it is not economically feasible, as it requires a 10-fold increase in budget.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome among antiretroviral-naive and antiretroviral-experienced HIV-1 infected Thai adults

Metabolic syndrome (MS), a group of interrelated risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and type 2 diabetes, has been increasingly reported among HIV-infected patients. Data on the prevalence and risk factors for MS among HIV-1 infected Thai adults are limited. The study collected cross-sectional data from 580 HIV-1 infected adults-46.2% were men and 71% were antiretroviral therapy (ART)-experienced. The majority (78.8%) of them used non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens. Data on lipid profiles, fasting blood glucose, CD4 count, HIV RNA, antiretroviral therapy (ART), anthropometry, food intake, and exercise were recorded. MS was defined using American Heart Association/National Heart Lung and Blood Institute criteria. Overall prevalence of MS was 22.2%; 15.9% in ART-naïve group vs. 24.9% in ART-experienced group, p = 0.018. Significant risk factors for MS in multivariate analyses included age ≥35 years (odds ratio, OR, 4.2, 95%CI 1.6-11.0, p = 0.004), high cholesterol (OR 4.7, 95%CI 1.7-12.9, p = 0.002), and living outside Bangkok (OR 4.2, 95%CI 1.6-10.8, p = 0.003) in the ART-naïve group, and female gender (OR 1.7, 95%CI 1.0-2.8, p = 0.05), lipodystrophy (OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.0-3.0, p = 0.032), high cholesterol (OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.1-3.1, p = 0.015), and food insecurity (OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.0-3.3, p = 0.05) in the ART-experienced group. All variables, except for female gender in the ART-experienced group, remained significantly associated with MS in a model where lipodystrophy was excluded. We concluded that MS was common among HIV-1-infected Thai adults. As HIV-infected patients get older, early screening and intervention, such as ART modification to avoid lipodystrophy, may reduce MS and CVD-related morbidities and mortalities in long-term care.

Review: [corrected] The changing face of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa

The widespread roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has substantially changed the face of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Timely initiation of ART in HIV-infected individuals dramatically reduces mortality and improves employment rates to levels prior to HIV infection. Recent findings from several studies have shown that ART reduces HIV transmission risk even with modest ART coverage of the HIV-infected population and imperfect ART adherence. While condoms are highly effective in the prevention of HIV acquisition, they are compromised by low and inconsistent usage; male medical circumcision substantially reduces HIV transmission but uptake remains relatively low; ART during pregnancy, delivery and breastfeeding can virtually eliminate mother-to-child transmission but implementation is challenging, especially in resource-limited settings. The current HIV prevention recommendations focus on a combination of preventions approach, including ART as treatment or pre- or post-exposure prophylaxis together with condoms, circumcision and sexual behaviour modification. Improved survival in HIV-infected individuals and reduced HIV transmission risk is beginning to result in limited HIV incidence decline at population level and substantial increases in HIV prevalence. However, achievements in HIV treatment and prevention are threatened by the challenges of lifelong adherence to preventive and therapeutic methods and by the ageing of the HIV-infected cohorts potentially complicating HIV management. Although current thinking suggests prevention of HIV transmission through early detection of infection immediately followed by ART could eventually result in elimination of the HIV epidemic, controversies remain as to whether we can treat our way out of the HIV epidemic.

Antiretroviral treatment outcomes amongst older adults in a large multicentre cohort in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Increasing numbers of patients are starting antiretroviral treatment (ART) at advanced age or reaching advanced age while on ART. We compared baseline characteristics and ART outcomes of older adults (aged ≥55 years) vs. younger adults (aged 25-54 years) in routine care settings in South Africa.

METHODS

A multicentre cohort study of ART-naïve adults starting ART at 89 public sector facilities was conducted. Mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), immunological and virological outcomes until five years of ART were compared using competing-risks regression, generalised estimating equations and mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

4065 older adults and 86,006 younger adults were included. There were more men amongst older adults; 44.7% vs. 33.4%; RR = 1.34 (95% CI: 1.29-1.39). Mortality after starting ART was substantially higher amongst older adults, adjusted sub-hazard ratio (asHR) = 1.44 over 5 years (95% CI: 1.26-1.64), particularly for the period 7-60 months of treatment, asHR = 1.73 (95% CI: 1.44-2.10). LTFU was lower in older adults, asHR = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78-0.97). Achievement of virological suppression was greater in older adults, adjusted odds ratio = 1.42 (95% CI: 1.23-1.64). The probabilities of viral rebound and confirmed virological failure were both lower in older adults, adjusted hazard ratios = 0.69 (95% CI: 0.56-0.85) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.47-0.89), respectively. The rate of CD4 cell recovery (amongst patients with continuous viral suppression) was 25 cells/6 months of ART (95% CI: 17.3-33.2) lower in older adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Although older adults had better virological outcomes and reduced LTFU, their higher mortality and slower immunological recovery warrant consideration of age-specific ART initiation criteria and management strategies.

The cascade of care in the Eastern European country of Georgia

OBJECTIVES

Individual and public health benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) rely on successful engagement of HIV-infected patients in care. We aimed to evaluate the HIV care continuum in the Eastern European country of Georgia.

METHODS

The analysis included all adult (age ≥ 18 years) HIV-infected patients diagnosed in Georgia from January 1989 until June 2012. Data were extracted from the national HIV/AIDS database as of 1 October 2012. The following stages of the HIV care continuum were quantified: HIV infected, HIV diagnosed, linked to care, retained in care, eligible for ART and virologically suppressed.

RESULTS

Of 3295 cumulative cases of adult HIV infection reported in Georgia, 2545 HIV-infected patients were known to be alive as of 1 October 2012, which is 52% of the estimated 4900 persons living with HIV in the country. Of the 2545 persons diagnosed with HIV infection, 2135 (84%) were linked to care and 1847 (73%) were retained in care. Of 1446 patients eligible for ART, 1273 (88%) were on treatment and 985 (77%) of them had a viral load <400 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL. Overall, 39% of those diagnosed and 20% of those infected had a suppressed viral load.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of our analysis demonstrate that the majority of patients diagnosed with HIV infection are retained in care. Loss of patients occurs at each step of the HIV care continuum, but the major gap is at the stage of HIV diagnosis. Reducing the number of persons living with undiagnosed HIV infection and simultaneously enhancing engagement in continuous care will be critical to achieve maximum individual and public health benefits of ART.

Blood pressure level impacts risk of death among HIV seropositive adults in Kenya: a retrospective analysis of electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Mortality among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is increasingly due to non-communicable causes. This has been observed mostly in developed countries and the routine care of HIV infected individuals has now expanded to include attention to cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiovascular risk factors such as high blood pressure are often overlooked among HIV seropositive (+) individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to determine the effect of blood pressure on mortality among HIV+ adults in Kenya.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of electronic medical records of a large HIV treatment program in western Kenya between 2005 and 2010. All included individuals were HIV+. We excluded participants with AIDS, who were <16 or >80 years old, or had data out of acceptable ranges. Missing data for key covariates was addressed by inverse probability weighting. Primary outcome measures were crude mortality rate and mortality hazard ratio (HR) using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for potential confounders including HIV stage.

RESULTS

There were 49,475 (74% women) HIV+ individuals who met inclusion and exclusion criteria. Mortality rates for men and women were 3.8 and 1.8/100 person-years, respectively, and highest among those with the lowest blood pressures. Low blood pressure was associated with the highest mortality incidence rate (IR) (systolic <100 mmHg IR 5.2 [4.8-5.7]; diastolic <60 mmHg IR 9.2 [8.3-10.2]). Mortality rate among men with high systolic blood pressure without advanced HIV (3.0, 95% CI: 1.6-5.5) was higher than men with normal systolic blood pressure (1.1, 95% CI: 0.7-1.7). In weighted proportional hazards regression models, men without advanced HIV disease and systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg carried a higher mortality risk than normotensive men (HR: 2.39, 95% CI: 0.94-6.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Although there has been little attention paid to high blood pressure among HIV+ Africans, we show that blood pressure level among HIV+ patients in Kenya is related to mortality. Low blood pressure carries the highest mortality risk. High systolic blood pressure is associated with mortality among patients whose disease is not advanced. Further investigation is needed into the cause of death for such patients.

The 2013 WHO guidelines for antiretroviral therapy: evidence-based recommendations to face new epidemic realities

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The review summarizes the key new recommendations of the WHO 2013 guidelines for antiretroviral therapy and describes the potential impact of these recommendations on the HIV epidemic.

RECENT FINDINGS

The 2013 WHO guidelines recommend earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) at CD4 500 cells/μl or less for all adults and children above 5 years. Further recommendations include initiation of ART irrespective of CD4 cell count or clinical stage for people co-infected with active tuberculosis disease or hepatitis B virus with severe liver disease, pregnant women, people in serodiscordant partnerships, and children under 5 years of age. The ART regimen comprising a once daily fixed-dose combination of tenofovir + lamivudine (or emtricitabine) + efavirenz is recommended as the preferred first-line therapy. Several approaches are also recommended to reach more people and increase health service capacity, including community and self-testing, and task shifting, decentralization, and integration of ART care.

SUMMARY

If fully implemented, the 2013 WHO ART guidelines could avert at least an additional 3 million deaths and prevent close to an additional 3.5 million new infections between 2012 and 2025 in low- and middle-income countries, compared with previous treatment guidelines.

HIV, vascular surgery and cardiovascular outcomes: a South African cohort study

Risk factors for peri-operative cardiac morbidity are poorly described in HIV-positive patients. This prospective observational study describes cardiovascular risk factors in a cohort of vascular surgical patients of known HIV status. We recruited 225 patients with 73 (32%) being HIV-positive. When compared with HIV-negative patients, the HIV-positive patients were younger (mean (SD) 56.4 (13.3) vs 40.5 (10.4) years, respectively, p < 0.01). They had fewer Revised Cardiac Risk Index cardiovascular risk factors (median (range [IQR]) 1 (0-5 [0-2]) vs 0 (0-2 [0-0]), respectively, p < 0.001), with the exception of congestive cardiac failure (p = 0.23) and renal dysfunction (p = 0.32), and so were of a significantly lower Revised Cardiac Risk Index risk category (p < 0.01). HIV-positive and -negative patients had similar outcomes in: 30-day mortality (p = 0.78); three-day postoperative troponin leak (p = 0.66); and a composite outcome of mortality and troponin release (p = 0.69). We conclude that although HIV-positive patients have fewer cardiovascular risk factors, they have similar peri-operative major adverse cardiac events to HIV-negative patients. Research should focus on why this is the case, and if alternative clinical risk predictors can be developed for HIV patients.

An affordable HIV-1 drug resistance monitoring method for resource limited settings

HIV-1 drug resistance has the potential to seriously compromise the effectiveness and impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART). As ART programs in sub-Saharan Africa continue to expand, individuals on ART should be closely monitored for the emergence of drug resistance. Surveillance of transmitted drug resistance to track transmission of viral strains already resistant to ART is also critical. Unfortunately, drug resistance testing is still not readily accessible in resource limited settings, because genotyping is expensive and requires sophisticated laboratory and data management infrastructure. An open access genotypic drug resistance monitoring method to manage individuals and assess transmitted drug resistance is described. The method uses free open source software for the interpretation of drug resistance patterns and the generation of individual patient reports. The genotyping protocol has an amplification rate of greater than 95% for plasma samples with a viral load >1,000 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml. The sensitivity decreases significantly for viral loads <1,000 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml. The method described here was validated against a method of HIV-1 drug resistance testing approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Viroseq genotyping method. Limitations of the method described here include the fact that it is not automated and that it also failed to amplify the circulating recombinant form CRF02_AG from a validation panel of samples, although it amplified subtypes A and B from the same panel.

Sex differences in overall and cause-specific mortality among HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Europe, Canada and the US

BACKGROUND

Here, we aimed to evaluate regional differences in all-cause, AIDS- and non-AIDS-related mortality in HIV-positive men and women started on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in Europe, Canada and the US.

METHODS

The ART Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) combines 19 cohorts of individuals started on cART in Europe and North America (NA). We analysed patients infected via injecting drug use (IDU) or heterosexual sex using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

A total of 32,443 European (45.9% women), 1,162 (32.5% women) Canadian and 2,721 (15.5% women) US patients were included. In Europe and NA, women were younger, more likely to have acquired HIV heterosexually, be AIDS-free and have higher CD4(+) T-cell counts and lower HIV-1 RNA at baseline. European women had lower rates of all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.76; 95% CI 0.68, 0.84) and non-AIDS mortality (0.67; 0.57, 0.78) than men, but AIDS-mortality rates were similar (0.90; 0.75, 1.09). Women had lower mortality due to non-AIDS infections (0.6 versus 1.3 per 1,000 person-years), liver diseases (0.4 versus 1.7), non-AIDS malignancies (0.6 versus 2.0) and cardiovascular diseases (0.6 versus 1.0). Between-sex differences in all-cause mortality were larger in heterosexuals (0.70; 0.61, 0.80) than in IDU (0.88; 0.73, 1.05; interaction P-value =0.043). No sex differences in all-cause mortality were found in Canada (hazard ratio women 1.13; 0.82, 1.56) or US (hazard ratio women 1.12; 0.79, 1.58).

CONCLUSIONS

The increasing importance of non-AIDS mortality is leading to emergent sex differences among HIV-positive patients in Europe, as in the general population. Despite the better clinical characteristics at cART initiation, women in NA had similar mortality to men.

Risk factors for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in HIV-infected women on antiretroviral treatment in Côte d'Ivoire, West Africa

Background

Facing the dual burden of invasive cervical cancer and HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, the identification of preventable determinants of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN) in HIV-infected women is of paramount importance.

Methods

A cervical cancer screening based on visual inspection methods was proposed to HIV-infected women in care in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. Positively screened women were referred for a colposcopy to a gynaecologist who performed directed biopsies.

Results

Of the 2,998 HIV-infected women enrolled, 132 (4.4%) CIN of any grade (CIN+) were identified. Women had been followed-up for a median duration of three years [IQR: 1–5] and 76% were on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Their median most recent CD4 count was 452 [IQR: 301–621] cells/mm³. In multivariate analysis, CIN+ was associated with a most recent CD4 count >350 cells/mm³ (OR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.2–0.6) or ≥200–350 cells/mm³ (OR 0.6; 95% CI 0.4–1.0) (Ref: <200 cells/mm³ CD4) (p<10⁻⁴).

Conclusions

The presence of CIN+ is less common among HIV-infected women with limited or no immune deficiency. Despite the potential impact of immunological recovery on the reduction of premalignant cervical lesions through the use of ART, cervical cancer prevention, including screening and vaccination remains a priority in West Africa while ART is rolled-out.

Exploring the population-level impact of antiretroviral treatment: the influence of baseline intervention context

OBJECTIVE

To compare the potential population-level impact of expanding antiretroviral treatment (ART) in HIV epidemics concentrated among female sex workers (FSWs) and clients, with and without existing condom-based FSW interventions.

DESIGN

Mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission in south India.

METHODS

We simulated HIV epidemics in three districts to assess the 10-year impact of existing ART programs (ART eligibility at CD4 cell count ≤350) beyond that achieved with high condom use, and the incremental benefit of expanding ART by either increasing ART eligibility, improving access to care, or prioritizing ART expansion to FSWs/clients. Impact was estimated in the total population (including FSWs and clients).

RESULTS

In the presence of existing condom-based interventions, existing ART programs (medium-to-good coverage) were predicted to avert 11-28% of remaining HIV infections between 2014 and 2024. Increasing eligibility to all risk groups prevented an incremental 1-15% over existing ART programs, compared with 29-53% when maximizing access to all risk groups. If there was no condom-based intervention, and only poor ART coverage, then expanding ART prevented a larger absolute number but a smaller relative fraction of HIV infections for every additional person-year of ART. Across districts and baseline interventions, for every additional person-year of treatment, prioritizing access to FSWs was most efficient (and resource saving), followed by prioritizing access to FSWs and clients.

CONCLUSION

The relative and absolute benefit of ART expansion depends on baseline condom use, ART coverage, and epidemic size. In south India, maximizing FSWs' access to care, followed by maximizing clients' access are the most efficient ways to expand ART for HIV prevention, across baseline intervention context.