Assessment of Nonfatal Myocardial Infarction as a Surrogate for All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Treatment or Prevention of Coronary Artery Disease: A Meta-analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials

Ten-year clinical outcomes after drug-eluting stents implantation according to clinical presentation-Insights from the DECADE cooperation

BACKGROUND

Investigations of very long-term outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents (DES) according to clinical presentation are scarce. Here, we investigated the 10-year clinical outcomes of patients undergoing DES-PCI according to clinical presentation.

METHODS

Patient-level data from five randomized trials with 10-year follow-up after DES-PCI were pooled. Patients were dichotomized into acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) groups as per clinical presentation. The primary outcome was all-cause death. Secondary outcomes were cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction (MI), definite stent thrombosis (ST) and repeat revascularization involving the target lesion (TLR), target vessel (TVR) or non-target vessel (nTVR).

RESULTS

Of the 9700 patients included in this analysis, 4557 presented with ACS and 5143 with CCS. Compared with CCS patients, ACS patients had a higher risk of all-cause death and nTVR in the first year, but comparable risk thereafter. In addition, ACS patients had a higher risk of MI [adjusted hazard ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval (1.04-1.41)] and definite ST [adjusted hazard ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval (1.14-1.92)], while the risk of TLR and TVR was not significantly different up to 10-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to CCS patients, ACS patients treated with PCI and DES implantation have an increased risk of all-cause death and repeat revascularization of remote vessels up to 1 year, with no significant differences thereafter and up to 10-year follow-up. ACS patients have a consistently higher risk of MI and definite ST. Whether these differences persist with current antithrombotic and secondary prevention therapies requires further investigation.

Novel strategies for targeting neutrophil against myocardial infarction

Inflammation is a crucial factor in cardiac remodeling after acute myocardial infarction (MI). Neutrophils, as the first wave of leukocytes to infiltrate the injured myocardium, exacerbate inflammation and cardiac injury. However, therapies that deplete neutrophils to manage cardiac remodeling after MI have not consistently produced promising outcomes. Recent studies have revealed that neutrophils at different time points and locations may have distinct functions. Thus, transferring neutrophil phenotypes, rather than simply blocking their activities, potentially meet the needs of cardiac repair. In this review, we focus on discussing the fate, heterogeneity, functions of neutrophils, and attempt to provide a more comprehensive understanding of their roles and targeting strategies in MI. We highlight the strategies and translational potential of targeting neutrophils to limit cardiac injury to reduce morbidity and mortality from MI.

The association between inflammation, arterial stiffness, oxidized LDL and cardiovascular disease in Finnish men with metabolic syndrome - a 15-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

All-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease are increased in subjects with metabolic syndrome (MetS). Risk scores are used to predict individual risk of heart disease. We performed a long-term follow-up study to investigate whether risk scores and cardiovascular risk factors such as arterial stiffness, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and oxidized LDL (OxLDL) can be used to predict cardiovascular events in Finnish men with MetS.

METHODS

After baseline measurements we followed 105 Finnish men aged 30 to 65 years with MetS for a mean period of 16.4 years. The primary outcome of the study was a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, symptomatic vascular disease diagnosed with invasive angiography, coronary or peripheral revascularization, amputation due to peripheral vascular disease, cardiovascular death and non-cardiovascular death. The endpoints were retrieved from electronic medical records.

RESULTS

The number of acute myocardial infarctions and strokes during the first 10 years was lower than estimated by FINRISK score but SCORE predicted cardiovascular death correctly. During the whole follow-up period, 27 of 105 participants (25.8%) had 30 endpoint events. The incidence of the primary composite outcome was significantly lower in subjects with hs-CRP < 1.0 mg/L than in subjects with hs-CRP ≥ 1.0 mg/L (6 of 41 subjects [14.6%] vs. 21 of 64 subjects [32.8%]; p = 0.036). The incidence of the primary composite outcome was higher among subjects with large artery elasticity classified as borderline compared to subjects with normal large artery elasticity (5 of 10 subjects [50%] vs. 22 of 93 subjects [24%]; p = 0.05). There was no difference in the incidence of primary composite outcome in groups with different degrees of small artery elasticity or different level of oxLDL.

CONCLUSIONS

Men with MetS who had hs-CRP ≥ 1.0 mg/L had higher risk for CVD and all-cause mortality than those with hs-CRP of < 1.0 mg/L. This also applies to subjects with borderline decreased large artery elasticity. The amount of OxLDL had no predictive value on the incidence of CVD and all-cause mortality. Men with MetS participating in the Hämeenlinna Metabolic Syndrome Research Program without lifestyle or drug intervention had better outcome for myocardial infarction or stroke than estimated by the FINRISK score.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01119404 retrospectively registered 07/05/2010.

A paradigm shift for cardiovascular outcome evaluation in diabetes: Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) to major adverse vascular events (MAVE)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Drugs for diabetes are required to demonstrate cardiovascular safety through CV outcome trials (CVOT). The pre-defined end-points for cardiovascular outcome studies may not be sufficient to capture all clinically relevant atherosclerotic cardio vascular disease (ASCVD) events particularly peripheral arterial disease (PAD).

METHODS

We planned a scoping review and searched database to identify CVOT conducted in population with diabetes measuring lower limb events due to PAD as the primary outcome measure. We also searched CVOT for reported differential cardiovascular outcomes in population with PAD.

RESULTS

We identified that CV outcomes are measured as 3 point major adverse cardiovascular outcomes (3P-MACE) that includes nonfatal MI and nonfatal stroke or 4P-MACE that included additional unstable angina which is further expanded to 5P-MACE by the inclusion of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). These CV end points are captured as surrogate for CV mortality based on the biological plausibility of relation between the surrogate and final outcome from pathophysiological studies. We found the prevalence of PAD is no lesser than other CV events in people with diabetes. Moreover, PAD contributes to the significant morbidity associated with diabetes as a surrogate for mortality. However, none of the CVOT with anti-diabetic drugs include PAD events as primary outcome measure despite the inclusion of 6-25 % participants with PAD in major CVOT. PAD outcomes are objectively measurable with tibial arterial waveforms and clinical end-point as lower extremity amputation. PAD outcomes do improve with treatment including intensive glycemic control and novel oral anticoagulants. We suggest the inclusion of PAD to MACE as a pre-specified outcome for a comprehensive capture of major adverse vascular event in future studies for people with diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

MACE should be expanded to include PAD event as major adverse vascular event in cardiovascular outcome studies since PAD is clinically relevant and objectively measurable in diabetes.

Temporal Trends in Noncardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality Following Acute Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

Due to improved management, diagnosis, and care of myocardial infarction (MI), patients may now survive long enough to increasingly develop serious noncardiovascular conditions.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to test this hypothesis by investigating the temporal trends in noncardiovascular morbidity and mortality following MI.

METHODS

We conducted a registry-based nationwide cohort study of all Danish patients with MI during 2000 to 2017. Outcomes were cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality, incident cancer, incident renal disease, and severe infectious disease.

RESULTS

From 2000 to 2017, 136,293 consecutive patients were identified (63.2% men, median age 69 years). The 1-year risk of cardiovascular mortality between 2000 to 2002 and 2015 to 2017 decreased from 18.4% to 7.6%, whereas noncardiovascular mortality decreased from 5.8% to 5.0%. This corresponded to an increase in the proportion of total 1-year mortality attributed to noncardiovascular causes from 24.1% to 39.5%. Furthermore, increases in 1-year risk of incident cancer (1.9%-2.4%), incident renal disease (1.0%-1.6%), and infectious disease (5.5%-9.1%) were observed (all P trend <0.01). In analyses standardized for changes in patient characteristics, the increased risk of cancer in 2015 to 2017 compared with 2000 to 2002 was no longer significant (standardized risk ratios for cancer: 0.99 [95% CI: 0.91-1.07]; renal disease: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.15-1.41]; infectious disease: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.23-1.34]).

CONCLUSIONS

Although cardiovascular mortality following MI improved substantially during 2000 to 2017, the risk of noncardiovascular morbidity increased. Moreover, noncardiovascular causes constitute an increasing proportion of post-MI mortality. These findings suggest that further attention on noncardiovascular outcomes is warranted in guidelines and clinical practice and should be considered in the design of future clinical trials.

Fractional flow reserve use in coronary artery revascularization: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Fractional flow reserve (FFR)-guided percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is recommended in revascularization guidelines for intermediate lesions. However, recent studies comparing FFR-guided PCI with non-physiology-guided revascularization have reported conflicting results. PubMed and Embase were searched for studies comparing FFR-guided PCI with non-physiology-guided revascularization strategies (angiography-guided, intracoronary imaging-guided, coronary artery bypass grafting). Data were pooled by meta-analysis using random-effects model. 26 studies enrolling 78,897 patients were included. FFR-guided PCI as compared to non-physiology-guided coronary revascularization had lower risk of all-cause mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.79 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.99, I² = 53%) and myocardial infarction (MI) (OR 0.74 95% CI 0.59-0.93, I² = 44.7%). However, no differences between groups were found in terms of major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) (OR 0.86 95% CI 0.72-1.03, I² = 72.3%) and repeat revascularization (OR 1 95% CI 0.82-1.20, I² = 43.2%). Among patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), FFR-guided PCI as compared to non-physiology-guided revascularization was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality and MI.

Quantitative flow ratio as a continuous predictor of myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

The quantitative flow ratio (QFR) identifies functionally ischaemic lesions that may benefit more from percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) than from medical therapy.

AIMS

This study investigated the association between QFR and myocardial infarction (MI) as affected by PCI versus medical therapy.

METHODS

All vessels requiring measurement (reference diameter ≥2.5 mm and existence of at least one stenotic lesion with diameter stenosis of 50-90%) in the FAVOR III China (5,564 vessels) and PANDA-III trials (4,471 vessels) were screened and analysed for offline QFR. The present study reported clinical outcomes on a per-vessel level. Interaction between vessel treatment and QFR as a continuous variable was evaluated for the threshold of 2-year MI estimated by Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Compared with medical therapy at 2 years, PCI reduced the MI risk in vessels with a QFR ≤0.80 (3.0% vs 4.6%) but increased the MI risk in vessels with a QFR>0.80 (3.6% vs 1.2%). Additionally, continuous QFR showed an inverse association with spontaneous MI (hazard ratio [HR] 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.99; p=0.04) that was reduced by PCI compared to medical therapy (HR 0.26, 95% CI: 0.17-0.40; p<0.0001). The interaction indicated a net benefit for PCI over medical therapy to reduce total MI beginning at QFR ≤0.64.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study demonstrated a continuous, inverse relationship between the QFR value of a vessel and its subsequent risk for MI, and PCI, compared to medical therapy, reduced this risk beginning at a QFR value of 0.64. These novel findings provide physicians with an angiographic tool for optimising vessel selection for PCI.

Correlation Between Periprocedural Myocardial Infarction, Mortality, and Quality of Life in Coronary Revascularization Trials: A Meta-analysis

Background

The prognostic importance of periprocedural myocardial infarction (pMI) and its inclusion in the composite outcomes of coronary revascularization trials are controversial. We assessed whether pMI is a surrogate for all-cause or cardiac mortality and quality of life (QoL) outcomes in coronary revascularization trials.

Methods

All randomized trials comparing percutaneous coronary intervention vs coronary artery bypass grafting (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library) were identified. Trials were included if they reported data for pMI and mortality. Trial-level associations between pMI and all-cause or cardiac mortality and QoL were assessed using the coefficient of determination (R 2 ). The criterion for surrogacy was set at 0.7. Subgroup analyses based on pMI definition and on key clinical/procedural variables were performed.

Results

Twelve trials were included (11,549 patients; weighted mean follow-up: 5.6 years). There was a positive correlation between pMI and all-cause mortality (slope, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.00-2.63; R 2 = 0.72). In the trials that defined pMI as a rise in cardiac biomarkers >5 times the upper reference limit, pMI positively correlated with both all-cause (slope, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.00-3.14; R 2 = 0.93) and cardiac mortality (slope, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.20-1.19; R 2 = 0.87); no such relationships were present in trials that used a lower biomarker threshold. An inverse correlation was found between pMI and long-term changes in the Short Form Health Survey Physical Component score (slope, -4.66; 95% CI, -5.75 to -3.57; R 2 =0.99).

Conclusions

In the published coronary revascularization trials, pMI defined by larger biomarker elevations was associated with subsequent mortality and reduced QoL. These findings suggest that large pMI should be included as an outcome measure in coronary revascularization trials.

Assessment of Nonfatal Bleeding Events as a Surrogate for Mortality in Coronary Artery Disease

Background

Bleeding events are frequently applied as safety end points for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the effect of antithrombotic agents in patients with coronary artery disease. However, whether a bleeding event is a valid surrogate for death remain uncertain.

Objectives

This study aimed to assess the correlation between the treatment effect on bleeding events and mortality.

Methods

Multiple databases were searched to identify RCTs studying antithrombotic agents for patients with coronary artery disease through August 2022. Major and minor bleeding events were defined in included trials, mostly defined with BARC (Bleeding Academic Research Consortium) or TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) criteria. Trial-level correlations between nonfatal bleeding events and mortality were assessed. We performed subgroup analyses by the definitions of bleeding (BARC vs TIMI criteria), study year, and follow-up duration. We used a cutoff with a lower limit of 95% confidence interval of R2 >0.72 as a strong correlation and with an upper limit of 95% confidence interval of R2 <0.50 as a weak correlation.

Results

A total of 48 RCTs with 181,951 participants were analyzed. Overall, trial-level R2 for major and minor bleeding were 0.09 (95% CI: 0.00-0.26) and 0.09 (95% CI: 0.00-0.27) for all-cause or cardiovascular death, respectively. When confined to major bleeding, R2 were 0.03 (95% CI: 0.00-0.13) and 0.01 (95% CI: 0.00-0.05), respectively. All of the subgroup analyses did not show any significant correlations.

Conclusions

We demonstrated a trial-defined bleeding event may not be a valid surrogate for mortality in RCTs investigating the effect of antithrombotic agents for coronary artery disease.

Assessment of Repeat Revascularization in Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Randomized Controlled Trials as a Surrogate for Mortality: A Meta-Regression Analysis

The association of repeat revascularization after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with mortality is uncertain. To assess the association of repeat revascularization after PCI with mortality in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). We identified randomized controlled trials comparing PCI with coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) or optimal medical therapy (OMT) using electronic databases through January 1, 2022. We performed a random-effects meta-regression between repeat revascularization rates after PCI (absolute risk difference [%] between PCI and CABG or OMT) with the relative risks (RR) of mortality. We assessed surrogacy of repeat revascularization for mortality using the coefficient of determination (R2), with threshold of 0.80. In 33 trials (21,735 patients), at median follow-up of 4 (2-7) years, repeat revascularization was higher after PCI than CABG [RR: 2.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.99-3.03)], but lower vs OMT [RR: 0.64 (0.46-0.88)]. Overall, meta-regression showed that repeat revascularization rates after PCI had no significant association with all-cause mortality [RR: 1.01 (0.99-1.02); R2=0.10) or cardiovascular mortality [RR: 1.01 (CI: 0.99-1.03); R2=0.09]. In PCI vs CABG (R2=0.0) or PCI vs OMT trials (R2=0.28), repeat revascularization did not meet the threshold for surrogacy for all-cause or cardiovascular mortality (R2=0.0). We observed concordant results for subgroup analyses (enrollment time, follow-up, sample size, risk of bias, stent types, and coronary artery disease), and multivariable analysis adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, risk of bias, MI, and follow-up duration. In summary, this meta-regression did not establish repeat revascularization after PCI as a surrogate for all-cause or cardiovascular mortality.

Antithrombotic therapy and bleeding risk in the era of aggressive lipid-lowering: current evidence, clinical implications, and future perspectives

ABSTRACT

The clinical efficacy of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors (PCSK9i) in reducing major cardiovascular adverse events related to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) has been well established in recent large randomized outcome trials. Although the cardiovascular and all-cause mortality benefit of PCSK9i remains inconclusive, current cholesterol management guidelines have been modified toward more aggressive goals for lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Consequently, the emerging concept of "the lower the better" has become the paradigm of ASCVD prevention. However, there is evidence from observational studies of a U-shaped association between baseline LDL-C levels and all-cause mortality in population-based cohorts. Among East Asian populations, low LDL-C was associated with an increased risk for hemorrhagic stroke in patients not on antithrombotic therapy. Accumulating evidence showed that low LDL-C was associated with an enhanced bleeding risk in patients on dual antiplatelet therapy following percutaneous coronary intervention. Additionally, low LDL-C was associated with a higher risk for incident atrial fibrillation and thereby, a possible increase in the risk for intracranial hemorrhage after initiation of anticoagulation therapy. The mechanism of low-LDL-C-related bleeding risk has not been fully elucidated. This review summarizes recent evidence of low-LDL-C-related bleeding risk in patients on antithrombotic therapy and discusses potential measures for reducing this risk, underscoring the importance of carefully weighing the pros and cons of aggressive LDL-C lowering in patients on antithrombotic therapy.

Secondary Cardiovascular Prevention after Acute Coronary Syndrome: Emerging Risk Factors and Novel Therapeutic Targets

The control of cardiovascular risk factors, the promotion of a healthy lifestyle, and antithrombotic therapy are the cornerstones of secondary prevention after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, many patients have recurrent ischemic events despite the optimal control of traditional modifiable risk factors and the use of tailored pharmacological therapy, including new-generation antiplatelet and lipid-lowering agents. This evidence emphasizes the importance of identifying novel risk factors and targets to optimize secondary preventive strategies. Lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)) has emerged as an independent predictor of adverse events after ACS. New molecules such as anti-PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies, small interfering RNAs, and antisense oligonucleotides can reduce plasma Lp(a) levels and are associated with a long-term outcome benefit after the index event. The inflammatory stimulus and the inflammasome, pivotal elements in the development and progression of atherosclerosis, have been widely investigated in patients with coronary artery disease. More recently, randomized clinical trials including post-ACS patients treated with colchicine and monoclonal antibodies targeting cytokines yielded promising results in the reduction in major cardiovascular events after an ACS. Gut dysbiosis has also raised great interest for its potential pathophysiological role in cardiovascular disease. This evidence, albeit preliminary and needing confirmation by larger population-based studies, suggests the possibility of targeting the gut microbiome in particularly high-risk populations. The risk of recurrent ischemic events after ACS is related to the complex interaction between intrinsic predisposing factors and environmental triggers. The identification of novel risk factors and targets is fundamental to customizing patient clinical management with a precision medicine perspective.

Evaluation of heart failure admission as a surrogate for mortality in randomized clinical trials: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) admission is used as a study endpoint in clinical trials. However, it remains unclear whether it can be a valid surrogate endpoint for mortality.

OBJECTIVES

To validate whether HF admission is a valid surrogate for mortality.

METHODS

In PubMed and EMBASE, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions to treat patients with heart failure at the enrolment were searched on 13 April 2022. We extracted RCTs in which event numbers of both HF admission and all-cause mortality were reported as either primary or secondary outcomes. Trial-level correlations (R-squared) between HF admission and mortality were assessed. We performed subgroup analyses by study year, follow-up duration, baseline HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) or HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), and whether the intervention was pharmacological. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guideline.

RESULTS

A total of 117 RCTs met the criteria for inclusion. Overall, the trial-level R-squared between HF admission and all-cause mortality was 0.39 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.26 to 0.53). However, in the subgroup analyses, the trial-level R-squared was increased when the follow-up duration was ≥24 months (0.70 [95% CI: 0.55, 0.85]), when intervention was pharmacological (0.51 [95% CI: 0.34, 0.68]) and when the baseline HF type was HFrEF (0.57 [95% CI: 0.42, 0.73]).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that HF admission may not always be a valid surrogate for mortality in patients with HF. Rather, the surrogacy of HF admission may be dependent on clinical background and interventions.

Mortality of asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap during an 18-year follow up

BACKGROUND

We studied asthma, COPD, and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO) to predict mortality in a cohort of Finnish adults with an 18-year follow up.

METHODS

A national health examination survey representing Finnish adults aged ≥30 years was performed in 2000-2001. The study cohort included 5922 participants (73.8% of the sample) with all relevant data, including a comprehensive clinical examination and spirometry. These participants were followed continuously from baseline until end of 2018 for total, cardiovascular, cancer, and respiratory mortality through a record linkage. Asthma, COPD, and ACO were defined based on the survey data, including spirometry and register data. There were three separate groups of obstructive subjects (one definition excluding the others).

RESULTS

Asthma and COPD were significantly associated with higher total mortality in Cox's model adjusted for sex, age, smoking, education level, BMI, leisure time physical activity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and hypertension. Hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) for asthma, COPD, and ACO were 1.29 (1.05-1.58), 1.50 (1.20-1.88), and 1.26 (0.97-1.65), respectively. Additionally, asthma (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.09-1.97) and COPD (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with cardiovascular mortality. Although ACO did not predict mortality in the whole cohort, there was a significant association with mortality risk among those with hs-CRP 1-2.99 mg/l.

CONCLUSIONS

Asthma or COPD predicts higher total mortality and premature death from cardiovascular diseases.

Everolimus-Eluting Stents or Bypass Surgery for Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease: Extended Follow-Up Outcomes of Multicenter Randomized Controlled BEST Trial

BACKGROUND

Long-term comparative outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with everolimus-eluting stents and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are limited in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease.

METHODS

This prospective, multicenter, randomized controlled trial was conducted in 27 international heart centers and was designed to randomly assign 1776 patients with angiographic multivessel coronary artery disease to receive PCI with everolimus-eluting stents or CABG. After inclusion of 880 patients (438 in the PCI group and 442 in the CABG group) between July 2008 and September 2013, the study was terminated early because of slow enrollment. The primary end point was the composite of death from any cause, myocardial infarction, or target vessel revascularization.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 11.8 years (interquartile range, 10.6-12.5 years; maximum, 13.7 years), the primary end point occurred in 151 patients (34.5%) in the PCI group and 134 patients (30.3%) in the CABG group (hazard ratio [HR], 1.18 [95% CI, 0.88-1.56]; P=0.26). No significant differences were seen in the occurrence of a safety composite of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke between groups (28.8% and 27.1%; HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.75-1.53]; P=0.70), as well as the occurrence of death from any cause (20.5% and 19.9%; HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.65-1.67]; P=0.86). However, spontaneous myocardial infarction (7.1% and 3.8%; HR, 1.86 [95% CI, 1.06-3.27]; P=0.031) and any repeat revascularization (22.6% and 12.7%; HR, 1.92 [95% CI, 1.58-2.32]; P<0.001) were more frequent after PCI than after CABG.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with multivessel coronary artery disease, there were no significant differences between PCI and CABG in the incidence of major adverse cardiac events, the safety composite end point, and all-cause mortality during the extended follow-up.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov; Unique identifiers: NCT05125367 and NCT00997828.

Informed decision-making: Statistical methodology for surrogacy evaluation and its role in licensing and reimbursement assessments

The desire, by patients and society, for faster access to therapies has driven a long tradition of the use of surrogate endpoints in the evaluation of pharmaceuticals and, more recently, biologics and other innovative medical technologies. The consequent need for statistical validation of potential surrogate outcome measures is a prime example on the theme of statistical support for decision-making in health technology assessment (HTA). Following the pioneering methodology based on hypothesis testing that Prentice presented in 1989, a host of further methods, both frequentist and Bayesian, have been developed to enable the value of a putative surrogate outcome to be determined. This rich methodological seam has generated practical methods for surrogate evaluation, the most recent of which are based on the principles of information theory and bring together ideas from the causal effects and causal association paradigms. Following our synopsis of statistical methods, we then consider how regulatory authorities (on licensing) and payer and HTA agencies (on reimbursement) use clinical trial evidence based on surrogate outcomes. We review existing HTA surrogate outcome evaluative frameworks. We conclude with recommendations for further steps: (1) prioritisation by regulators and payers of the application of formal surrogate outcome evaluative frameworks, (2) application of formal Bayesian decision-analytic methods to support reimbursement decisions, and (3) greater utilization of conditional surrogate-based licensing and reimbursement approvals, with subsequent reassessment of treatments in confirmatory trials based on final patient-relevant outcomes.

Prediction of risk for bleeding, myocardial infarction and mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND

Whether bleeding and myocardial infarction (MI) improve the performance of risk prediction models for mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remains unknown.

METHODS

This study included 3377 patients with ACS who underwent PCI in the setting of the ISAR-REACT 5 trial. Patients with bleeding, MI or those dying at 1 year after PCI were characterized in terms of baseline characteristics, risk estimates and C-statistic of the risk prediction models for these outcomes.

RESULTS

Major bleeding (Bleeding Academic Research Consortium types 3-5), MI and mortality occurred in 195 patients (5.8%), 143 patients (4.3%) and 143 patients (4.3%), respectively. After adjustment, bleeding [hazard ratio = 5.08; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.03-8.53; P < 0.001] and MI [hazard ratio = 5.90; 95% CI, (3.00-11.65); P < 0.001) remained independently associated with the risk for 1-year mortality. The C-statistic (with 95% CI) of the model for bleeding, MI and mortality was, 0.755 (0.722-0.786), 0.752 (0.717-0.789) and 0.868 (0.837-0.896), respectively. The inclusion of bleeding [C-statistic: 0.892 (0.867-0.913); delta C-statistic 0.024 (-0.014 to 0.065); P = 0.200] or MI [C-statistic: 0.878 (0.851-0.903); delta C-statistic 0.011 (-0.030 to 0.053); P = 0.635] in the risk prediction models for mortality alongside baseline demographical and clinical variables did not improve prediction for mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ACS treated with PCI, mortality is the most accurately predicted outcome. Bleeding and MI did not improve risk discrimination for mortality when added in the risk prediction models for mortality suggesting that these outcomes do not provide incremental prognostic information on top of baseline demographical and clinical data.

Non-fatal MI is not a surrogate for cardiovascular or all-cause mortality

Overview of: O'Fee K, Deych E, Ciani O, et al Assessment of nonfatal myocardial infarction as a surrogate for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in treatment or prevention of coronary artery disease: a meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials. JAMA Intern Med 2021;181:1575-87.

Methodological Aspects of Meta-Analyses Assessing the Effect of Blood Pressure-Lowering Treatment on Clinical Outcomes

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are often considered the highest level of evidence, with high impact on clinical practice guidelines. The methodological literature on systematic reviews and meta-analyses is extensive and covers most aspects relevant to the design and interpretation of meta-analysis findings in general. Analyzing the effect of blood pressure-lowering on clinical outcomes poses several challenges over and above what is covered in the general literature, including how to combine placebo-controlled trials, target-trials, and comparative studies depending on the research question, how to handle the potential interaction between baseline blood pressure level, common comorbidities, and the estimated treatment effect, and how to consider different magnitudes of blood pressure reduction across trials. This review aims to address the most important methodological considerations, to guide the general reader of systematic reviews and meta-analyses within our field, and to help inform the design of future studies. Furthermore, we highlight issues where published meta-analyses have applied different analytical strategies and discuss pros and cons with different strategies.