Household Secondary Attack Rates of SARS-CoV-2 by Variant and Vaccination Status: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Oral Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19

BACKGROUND

Clinical trials of treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) have not shown a significant benefit of postexposure prophylaxis.

METHODS

We conducted a phase 2-3 double-blind trial to assess the efficacy and safety of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in asymptomatic, rapid antigen test-negative adults who had been exposed to a household contact with Covid-19 within 96 hours before randomization. The participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (300 mg of nirmatrelvir and 100 mg of ritonavir) every 12 hours for 5 days or for 10 days or matching placebo for 5 or 10 days. The primary end point was the development of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection, confirmed on reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) or rapid antigen testing, through 14 days in participants who had a negative RT-PCR test at baseline.

RESULTS

A total of 2736 participants were randomly assigned to a trial group - 921 to the 5-day nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group, 917 to the 10-day nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group, and 898 to the placebo group. Symptomatic, confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection developed by day 14 in 2.6% of the participants in the 5-day nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group, 2.4% of those in the 10-day nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group, and 3.9% of those in the placebo group. In each nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group, the percentage of participants in whom symptomatic, confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection developed did not differ significantly from that in the placebo group, with risk reductions relative to placebo of 29.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], -16.7 to 57.8; P = 0.17) in the 5-day nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group and 35.5% (95% CI, -11.5 to 62.7; P = 0.12) in the 10-day nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group. The incidence of adverse events was similar across the trial groups, with dysgeusia being the most frequently reported adverse event (in 5.9% and 6.8% of the participants in the 5-day and 10-day nirmatrelvir-ritonavir groups, respectively, and in 0.7% of those in the placebo group).

CONCLUSIONS

In this placebo-controlled trial, postexposure prophylaxis with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir for 5 or 10 days did not significantly reduce the risk of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. (Funded by Pfizer; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05047601.).

Case-cohort design as an efficient approach to evaluating COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, waning, heterologous immune effect and optimal dosing interval

Though widely applied in other epidemiological fields, the case-cohort study design has seen little application in the field of vaccinology. Case-cohort studies use probabilistic sampling and reweighting to draw inferences about effects (in this case vaccine efficacy) at the population level in an efficient manner. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was met with high vaccine uptake, and high rates of population testing prior to the emergence of Omicron variants of concern, in Ontario, Canada, providing an ideal environment for application of case-cohort methodology. We combined a population-based case line list and vaccination database for the province of Ontario between December 2020 and October 2021. Risk of infection after vaccination was evaluated in all laboratory-confirmed vaccinated SARS-CoV-2 cases, and a 2 % sample of vaccinated controls, evaluated using survival analytic methods, including construction of Cox proportional hazards models. Vaccination status was treated as a time-varying covariate. First and second doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine markedly reduced risk of infection (first dose efficacy 68 %, 95 % CI 67 %-69 %; second dose efficacy 88 %, 95 % CI 87-88 %). In multivariable models, extended dosing intervals were associated with lowest risk of breakthrough infection (HR for redosing 0.64 (95 % CI 0.61-0.67) at 6-8 weeks). Heterologous vaccine schedules that mixed viral vector vaccine first doses with mRNA second doses were significantly more effective than mRNA only vaccines. Risk of infection largely vanished during the time period 4-6 months after the second vaccine dose, but rose markedly thereafter. We conclude that a case-cohort design provided an efficient means to identify strong protective effects associated with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in real time, and also served to quantify the timing and magnitude of infection breakthrough risk in the same cohort. Heterologous vaccination and extended dosing intervals improved the durability of immune response.

The Infectious Diseases Society of America Guidelines on the Diagnosis of COVID-19: Antigen Testing (January 2023)

Immunoassays designed to detect SARS-CoV-2 protein antigens (Ag) are commonly used to diagnose COVID-19. The most widely used tests are lateral flow assays that generate results in approximately 15 minutes for diagnosis at the point-of-care. Higher throughput, laboratory-based SARS-CoV-2 Ag assays have also been developed. The number of commercially available SARS-CoV-2 Ag detection tests has increased rapidly, as has the COVID-19 diagnostic literature. The Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) convened an expert panel to perform a systematic review of the literature and develop best-practice guidance related to SARS-CoV-2 Ag testing. This guideline is an update to the third in a series of frequently updated COVID-19 diagnostic guidelines developed by the IDSA. IDSA's goal was to develop evidence-based recommendations or suggestions that assist clinicians, clinical laboratories, patients, public health authorities, administrators, and policymakers in decisions related to the optimal use of SARS-CoV-2 Ag tests in both medical and nonmedical settings. A multidisciplinary panel of infectious diseases clinicians, clinical microbiologists, and experts in systematic literature review identified and prioritized clinical questions related to the use of SARS-CoV-2 Ag tests. A review of relevant, peer-reviewed published literature was conducted through 1 April 2022. Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology was used to assess the certainty of evidence and make testing recommendations. The panel made 10 diagnostic recommendations that address Ag testing in symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals and assess single versus repeat testing strategies. US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) SARS-CoV-2 Ag tests with Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) have high specificity and low to moderate sensitivity compared with nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT). Ag test sensitivity is dependent on the presence or absence of symptoms and, in symptomatic patients, on timing of testing after symptom onset. In most cases, positive Ag results can be acted upon without confirmation. Results of point-of-care testing are comparable to those of laboratory-based testing, and observed or unobserved self-collection of specimens for testing yields similar results. Modeling suggests that repeat Ag testing increases sensitivity compared with testing once, but no empirical data were available to inform this question. Based on these observations, rapid RT-PCR or laboratory-based NAAT remain the testing methods of choice for diagnosing SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, when timely molecular testing is not readily available or is logistically infeasible, Ag testing helps identify individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data were insufficient to make a recommendation about the utility of Ag testing to guide release of patients with COVID-19 from isolation. The overall quality of available evidence supporting use of Ag testing was graded as very low to moderate.

Household Transmission Dynamics of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-Infected Children: A Multinational, Controlled Case-Ascertained Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in children is highly prevalent but its acute and chronic implications have been minimally described.

METHODS

In this controlled case-ascertained household transmission study, we recruited asymptomatic children <18 years with SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid testing performed at 12 tertiary care pediatric institutions in Canada and the United States. We attempted to recruit all test-positive children and 1 to 3 test-negative, site-matched controls. After 14 days' follow-up we assessed the clinical (ie, symptomatic) and combined (ie, test-positive, or symptomatic) secondary attack rates (SARs) among household contacts. Additionally, post-COVID-19 condition (PCC) was assessed in SARS-CoV-2-positive participating children after 90 days' follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 111 test-positive and 256 SARS-CoV-2 test-negative asymptomatic children were enrolled between January 2021 and April 2022. After 14 days, excluding households with co-primary cases, the clinical SAR among household contacts of SARS-CoV-2-positive and -negative index children was 10.6% (19/179; 95% CI: 6.5%-16.1%) and 2.0% (13/663; 95% CI: 1.0%-3.3%), respectively (relative risk = 5.4; 95% CI: 2.7-10.7). In households with a SARS-CoV-2-positive index child, age <5 years, being pre-symptomatic (ie, developed symptoms after test), and testing positive during Omicron and Delta circulation periods (vs earlier) were associated with increased clinical and combined SARs among household contacts. Among 77 asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children with 90-day follow-up, 6 (7.8%; 95% CI: 2.9%-16.2%) reported PCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children, especially those <5 years, are important contributors to household transmission, with 1 in 10 exposed household contacts developing symptomatic illness within 14 days. Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-infected children may develop PCC.

How effective is the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 transmission and infection? A national programme analysis in Monaco, July 2021 to September 2022

BACKGROUND

We quantified SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in different community settings and the direct and indirect effect of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine in Monaco for different variants of concern (VOC).

METHODS

Between July 2021 and September 2022, we prospectively investigated 20,443 contacts from 6320 index cases using data from the Monaco COVID-19 Public Health Programme. We calculated secondary attack rates (SARs) in households (n = 13,877), schools (n = 2508) and occupational (n = 6499) settings. We used binomial regression with a complementary log-log link function to measure adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and vaccine effectiveness (aVE) for index cases to infect contacts and contacts to be infected in households.

RESULTS

In households, the SAR was 55% (95% CI 54-57) and 50% (48-51) among unvaccinated and vaccinated contacts, respectively. The SAR was 32% (28-36) and 12% (10-13) in workplaces, and 7% (6-9) and 6% (3-10) in schools, among unvaccinated and vaccinated contacts respectively. In household, the aHR was lower in contacts than in index cases (aHR 0.68 [0.55-0.83] and 0.93 [0.74-1.1] for delta; aHR 0.73 [0.66-0.81] and 0.89 [0.80-0.99] for omicron BA.1&2, respectively). Vaccination had no significant effect on either direct or indirect aVE for omicron BA.4&5. The direct aVE in contacts was 32% (17, 45) and 27% (19, 34), and for index cases the indirect aVE was 7% (- 17, 26) and 11% (1, 20) for delta and omicron BA.1&2, respectively. The greatest aVE was in contacts with a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and a single vaccine dose during the omicron BA.1&2 period (45% [27, 59]), while the lowest were found in contacts with either three vaccine doses (aVE - 24% [- 63, 6]) or one single dose and a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (aVE - 36% [- 198, 38]) during the omicron BA.4&5 period.

CONCLUSIONS

Protection conferred by the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine against transmission and infection was low for delta and omicron BA.1&2, regardless of the number of vaccine doses and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. There was no significant vaccine effect for omicron BA.4&5. Health authorities carrying out vaccination campaigns should bear in mind that the current generation of COVID-19 vaccines may not represent an effective tool in protecting individuals from either transmitting or acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Efficacy and Safety of Ensitrelvir for Asymptomatic or Mild COVID-19: An Exploratory Analysis of a Multicenter, Randomized, Phase 2b/3 Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

This phase 2b/3, randomized, placebo-controlled trial explored the efficacy and evaluated the safety of ensitrelvir. This trial involved individuals with asymptomatic infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and patients with mild symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

The trial was conducted at 57 medical institutions in Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam (study period: January 6-August 14, 2022). Eligible participants were randomized (1:1:1) to the ensitrelvir 125-mg, ensitrelvir 250-mg, or placebo group, received the allocated intervention orally, and were followed up until Day 28. Participants self-rated the severity of 14 typical COVID-19 symptoms and recorded the data in an electronic diary.

RESULTS

In total, 572 participants (194, 189, and 189 in the ensitrelvir 125-mg, ensitrelvir 250-mg, and placebo groups, respectively) were included in the intention-to-treat population. Ensitrelvir 125-mg group observed a 77% reduction in the risk of developing any of the 14 COVID-19 symptoms or fever and a 29% reduction in the risk of worsening of such symptoms or fever versus placebo (statistically nonsignificant). The viral RNA, viral titer, and time to infectious viral clearance observed a statistically significant decrease versus placebo. Most treatment-related adverse events (TEAEs) were mild to moderate in severity, and the most common TEAE observed across groups was a decrease in high-density lipoprotein.

CONCLUSIONS

Our exploratory results suggest a potential reduction in the risk of development or worsening of COVID-19 symptoms with ensitrelvir. Ensitrelvir showed antiviral efficacy and was well tolerated.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Japan Registry of Clinical Trials identifier: jRCT2031210350.

The effectiveness of booster vaccination of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines against susceptibility, infectiousness, and transmission of omicron BA.2 variant: a retrospective cohort study in Shenzhen, China

Little studies evaluated the effectiveness of booster vaccination of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines against being infected (susceptibility), infecting others (infectiousness), and spreading the disease from one to another (transmission). Therefore, we conducted a retrospective cohort study to evaluate the effectiveness of booster vaccination of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines against susceptibility, infectiousness, and transmission in Shenzhen during an Omicron BA.2 outbreak period from 1 February to 21 April 2022. The eligible individuals were classified as four sub-cohorts according to the inactivated COVID-19 vaccination status of both the close contacts and their index cases: group 2-2, fully vaccinated close contacts seeded by fully vaccinated index cases (reference group); group 2-3, booster-vaccinated close contacts seeded by fully vaccinated index cases; group 3-2, fully vaccinated close contacts seeded by booster-vaccinated index cases; and group 3-3, booster-vaccinated close contacts seeded by booster-vaccinated index cases. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to estimate the effectiveness of booster vaccination. The sample sizes of groups 2-2, 2-3, 3-2, and 3-3 were 846, 1,115, 1,210, and 2,417, respectively. We found that booster vaccination had an effectiveness against infectiousness of 44.9% (95% CI: 19.7%, 62.2%) for the adults ≥ 18 years, 62.2% (95% CI: 32.0%, 78.9%) for the female close contacts, and 60.8% (95% CI: 38.5%, 75.1%) for the non-household close contacts. Moreover, booster vaccination had an effectiveness against transmission of 29.0% (95% CI: 3.2%, 47.9%) for the adults ≥ 18 years, 38.9% (95% CI: 3.3%, 61.3%) for the female close contacts, and 45.8% (95% CI: 22.1%, 62.3%) for the non-household close contacts. However, booster vaccination against susceptibility did not provide any protective effect. In summary, this study confirm that booster vaccination of the inactivated COVID-19 vaccines provides low level of protection and moderate level of protection against Omicron BA.2 transmission and infectiousness, respectively. However, booster vaccination does not provide any protection against Omicron BA.2 susceptibility.

A systematic review and meta-analysis on the effectiveness of bivalent mRNA booster vaccines against Omicron variants

BACKGROUND

A global shift to bivalent mRNA vaccines is ongoing to counterbalance the diminishing effectiveness of the original monovalent vaccines due to the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants, yet substantial variation in the bivalent vaccine effectiveness (VE) exists across studies and a complete picture is lacking.

METHODS

We searched papers evaluating absolute or relative effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 BA.1 type or BA.4/5 type bivalent mRNA vaccines on eight publication databases published from September 1st, 2022, to November 8th, 2023. Pooled VE against Omicron-associated infection and severe events (hospitalization and/or death) was estimated in reference to unvaccinated, ≥2 original monovalent doses, and ≥ 3 original monovalent doses.

RESULTS

From 630 citations identified, 28 studies were included, involving 55,393,303 individuals. Bivalent boosters demonstrated higher effectiveness against symptomatic or any infection for all ages combined, with an absolute VE of 53.5 % (95 % CI: -22.2-82.3 %) when compared to unvaccinated and relative VE of 30.8 % (95 % CI: 22.5-38.2 %) and 28.4 % (95 % CI: 10.2-42.9 %) when compared to ≥ 2 and ≥ 3 original monovalent doses, respectively. The corresponding VE estimates for adults ≥ 60 years old were 22.5 % (95 % CI: 16.8-39.8 %), 31.4 % (95 % CI: 27.7-35.0 %), and 30.6 % (95 % CI: -13.2-57.5 %). Pooled bivalent VE estimates against severe events were higher, 72.9 % (95 % CI: 60.5-82.4 %), 57.6 % (95 % CI: 42.4-68.8 %), and 62.1 % (95 % CI: 54.6-68.3 %) for all ages, and 72.0 % (95 % CI: 51.4-83.9 %), 63.4 % (95 % CI: 41.0-77.3 %), and 60.7 % (95 % CI: 52.4-67.6 %) for adults ≥ 60 years old, compared to unvaccinated, ≥2 original monovalent doses, and ≥ 3 original monovalent doses, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The bivalent boosters demonstrated superior protection against severe outcomes than the original monovalent boosters across age groups, highlighting the critical need for improving vaccine coverage, especially among the vulnerable older subpopulation.

Sentinel Enhanced Dengue Surveillance System - Puerto Rico, 2012-2022

Problem/Condition

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquitoborne viral illness worldwide and is endemic in Puerto Rico. Dengue's clinical spectrum can range from mild, undifferentiated febrile illness to hemorrhagic manifestations, shock, multiorgan failure, and death in severe cases. The disease presentation is nonspecific; therefore, various other illnesses (e.g., arboviral and respiratory pathogens) can cause similar clinical symptoms. Enhanced surveillance is necessary to determine disease prevalence, to characterize the epidemiology of severe disease, and to evaluate diagnostic and treatment practices to improve patient outcomes. The Sentinel Enhanced Dengue Surveillance System (SEDSS) was established to monitor trends of dengue and dengue-like acute febrile illnesses (AFIs), characterize the clinical course of disease, and serve as an early warning system for viral infections with epidemic potential.

Reporting Period

May 2012-December 2022.

Description of System

SEDSS conducts enhanced surveillance for dengue and other relevant AFIs in Puerto Rico. This report includes aggregated data collected from May 2012 through December 2022. SEDSS was launched in May 2012 with patients with AFIs from five health care facilities enrolled. The facilities included two emergency departments in tertiary acute care hospitals in the San Juan-Caguas-Guaynabo metropolitan area and Ponce, two secondary acute care hospitals in Carolina and Guayama, and one outpatient acute care clinic in Ponce. Patients arriving at any SEDSS site were eligible for enrollment if they reported having fever within the past 7 days. During the Zika epidemic (June 2016-June 2018), patients were eligible for enrollment if they had either rash and conjunctivitis, rash and arthralgia, or fever. Eligibility was expanded in April 2020 to include reported cough or shortness of breath within the past 14 days. Blood, urine, nasopharyngeal, and oropharyngeal specimens were collected at enrollment from all participants who consented. Diagnostic testing for dengue virus (DENV) serotypes 1-4, chikungunya virus, Zika virus, influenza A and B viruses, SARS-CoV-2, and five other respiratory viruses was performed by the CDC laboratory in San Juan.

Results

During May 2012-December 2022, a total of 43,608 participants with diagnosed AFI were enrolled in SEDSS; a majority of participants (45.0%) were from Ponce. During the surveillance period, there were 1,432 confirmed or probable cases of dengue, 2,293 confirmed or probable cases of chikungunya, and 1,918 confirmed or probable cases of Zika. The epidemic curves of the three arboviruses indicate dengue is endemic; outbreaks of chikungunya and Zika were sporadic, with case counts peaking in late 2014 and 2016, respectively. The majority of commonly identified respiratory pathogens were influenza A virus (3,756), SARS-CoV-2 (1,586), human adenovirus (1,550), respiratory syncytial virus (1,489), influenza B virus (1,430), and human parainfluenza virus type 1 or 3 (1,401). A total of 5,502 participants had confirmed or probable arbovirus infection, 11,922 had confirmed respiratory virus infection, and 26,503 had AFI without any of the arboviruses or respiratory viruses examined.

Interpretation

Dengue is endemic in Puerto Rico; however, incidence rates varied widely during the reporting period, with the last notable outbreak occurring during 2012-2013. DENV-1 was the predominant virus during the surveillance period; sporadic cases of DENV-4 also were reported. Puerto Rico experienced large outbreaks of chikungunya that peaked in 2014 and of Zika that peaked in 2016; few cases of both viruses have been reported since. Influenza A and respiratory syncytial virus seasonality patterns are distinct, with respiratory syncytial virus incidence typically reaching its annual peak a few weeks before influenza A. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 led to a reduction in the circulation of other acute respiratory viruses.

Public Health Action

SEDSS is the only site-based enhanced surveillance system designed to gather information on AFI cases in Puerto Rico. This report illustrates that SEDSS can be adapted to detect dengue, Zika, chikungunya, COVID-19, and influenza outbreaks, along with other seasonal acute respiratory viruses, underscoring the importance of recognizing signs and symptoms of relevant diseases and understanding transmission dynamics among these viruses. This report also describes fluctuations in disease incidence, highlighting the value of active surveillance, testing for a panel of acute respiratory viruses, and the importance of flexible and responsive surveillance systems in addressing evolving public health challenges. Various vector control strategies and vaccines are being considered or implemented in Puerto Rico, and data from ongoing trials and SEDSS might be integrated to better understand epidemiologic factors underlying transmission and risk mitigation approaches. Data from SEDSS might guide sampling strategies and implementation of future trials to prevent arbovirus transmission, particularly during the expansion of SEDSS throughout the island to improve geographic representation.

Transmission risks of Omicron BA.5 following inactivated COVID-19 vaccines among children and adolescents in China

BACKGROUND

As SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants circulating globally since 2022, assessing the transmission characteristics, and the protection of vaccines against emerging Omicron variants among children and adolescents are needed for guiding the control and vaccination policies.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study for SARS-CoV-2 infections and close contacts aged <18 years from an outbreak seeded by Omicron BA.5 variants. The secondary attack rate (SAR) was calculated and the protective effects of two doses of inactivated vaccine (mainly Sinopharm /BBIBP-CorV) within a year versus one dose or two doses above a year after vaccination against the transmission and infection of Omicron BA.5 were estimated.

RESULTS

A total of 3442 all-age close contacts of 122 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections aged 0-17 years were included. The SAR was higher in the household setting and for individuals who received a one-dose inactivated vaccine or those who received a two-dose for more than one year, with estimates of 28.5% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 21.1, 37.7) and 55.3% (95% CrI: 24.4, 84.8), respectively. The second dose of inactivated vaccine conferred substantial protection against all infection and transmission of Omicron BA.5 variants within a year.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the rollout of the second dose of inactivated vaccine for children and adolescents during the Omciron BA.5 predominant epidemic phase. Given the continuous emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, monitoring the transmission risk and corresponding vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants among children and adolescents is important to inform control strategy.

SARS-CoV-2 Seroepidemiology and Antibody Levels in Children during BA.5 Predominance Period

This is a SARS-CoV-2 seroepidemiological study in a pediatric population (0-16 years) during the BA.5 Omicron predominance period in the Athens metropolitan area. Serum samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies (Abs-N), representing natural infection during three periods of BA.5 predominance: 1 May 2022-31 August 2022 (period A), 1 September 2022-31 December 2022 (period B), and July 2023 (period C). Εpidemiological data were also collected. Additionally, in period C, Abs-N-seronegative samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies (Abs-S). A total of 878 children were tested (males: 52.6%), with a median age (IQR) of 96 (36-156) months; the number of cases of seropositivity during the three periods were as follows: A: 292/417 (70%), B: 288/356 (80.9%), and C: 89/105 (84.8%), with p < 0.001. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity increased from period A to C for children 0-1 year (p = 0.044), >1-4 years (p = 0.028), and >6-12 years (p = 0.003). Children > 6-12 years had the highest seropositivity rates in all periods (A: 77.3%, B: 91.4%, and C: 95.8%). A significant correlation of monthly median Abs-N titers with monthly seropositivity rates was detected (rs: 0.812, p = 0.008). During period C, 12/105 (11.4%) Abs-S-seropositive and Abs-N-seronegative samples were detected and total seropositivity was estimated at 96.2% (101/105). The findings of this study indicate a high SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate of children during the BA.5 predominance period and suggest that in future seroepidemiological studies, both antibodies should be tested in Abs-N-seronegative populations.

Impact of Prior COVID-19 Immunization and/or Prior Infection on Immune Responses and Clinical Outcomes

Cellular and humoral immunity exhibit dynamic adaptation to the mutating SARS-CoV-2 virus. It is noteworthy that immune responses differ significantly, influenced by whether a patient has received vaccination or whether there is co-occurrence of naturally acquired and vaccine-induced immunity, known as hybrid immunity. The different immune reactions, conditional on vaccination status and the viral variant involved, bear implications for inflammatory responses, patient outcomes, pathogen transmission rates, and lingering post-COVID conditions. Considering these developments, we have performed a review of recently published literature, aiming to disentangle the intricate relationships among immunological profiles, transmission, the long-term health effects post-COVID infection poses, and the resultant clinical manifestations. This investigation is directed toward understanding the variability in the longevity and potency of cellular and humoral immune responses elicited by immunization and hybrid infection.

Preparing correctional settings for the next pandemic: a modeling study of COVID-19 outbreaks in two high-income countries

Introduction

Correctional facilities are high-priority settings for coordinated public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. These facilities are at high risk of disease transmission due to close contacts between people in prison and with the wider community. People in prison are also vulnerable to severe disease given their high burden of co-morbidities.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the effect of various public health interventions, including vaccination, on the mitigation of COVID-19 outbreaks, applying it to prisons in Australia and Canada.

Results

We found that, in the absence of any intervention, an outbreak would occur and infect almost 100% of people in prison within 20 days of the index case. However, the rapid rollout of vaccines with other non-pharmaceutical interventions would almost eliminate the risk of an outbreak.

Discussion

Our study highlights that high vaccination coverage is required for variants with high transmission probability to completely mitigate the outbreak risk in prisons.

Wastewater-based surveillance as a tool for public health action: SARS-CoV-2 and beyond

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has undergone dramatic advancement in the context of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The power and potential of this platform technology were rapidly realized when it became evident that not only did WBS-measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA correlate strongly with COVID-19 clinical disease within monitored populations but also, in fact, it functioned as a leading indicator. Teams from across the globe rapidly innovated novel approaches by which wastewater could be collected from diverse sewersheds ranging from wastewater treatment plants (enabling community-level surveillance) to more granular locations including individual neighborhoods and high-risk buildings such as long-term care facilities (LTCF). Efficient processes enabled SARS-CoV-2 RNA extraction and concentration from the highly dilute wastewater matrix. Molecular and genomic tools to identify, quantify, and characterize SARS-CoV-2 and its various variants were adapted from clinical programs and applied to these mixed environmental systems. Novel data-sharing tools allowed this information to be mobilized and made immediately available to public health and government decision-makers and even the public, enabling evidence-informed decision-making based on local disease dynamics. WBS has since been recognized as a tool of transformative potential, providing near-real-time cost-effective, objective, comprehensive, and inclusive data on the changing prevalence of measured analytes across space and time in populations. However, as a consequence of rapid innovation from hundreds of teams simultaneously, tremendous heterogeneity currently exists in the SARS-CoV-2 WBS literature. This manuscript provides a state-of-the-art review of WBS as established with SARS-CoV-2 and details the current work underway expanding its scope to other infectious disease targets.

Comparing frequency of booster vaccination to prevent severe COVID-19 by risk group in the United States

There is a public health need to understand how different frequencies of COVID-19 booster vaccines may mitigate the risk of severe COVID-19, while accounting for waning of protection and differential risk by age and immune status. By analyzing United States COVID-19 surveillance and seroprevalence data in a microsimulation model, here we show that more frequent COVID-19 booster vaccination (every 6-12 months) in older age groups and the immunocompromised population would effectively reduce the burden of severe COVID-19, while frequent boosters in the younger population may only provide modest benefit against severe disease. In persons 75+ years, the model estimated that annual boosters would reduce absolute annual risk of severe COVID-19 by 199 (uncertainty interval: 183-232) cases per 100,000 persons, compared to a one-time booster vaccination. In contrast, for persons 18-49 years, the model estimated that annual boosters would reduce this risk by 14 (10-19) cases per 100,000 persons. Those with prior infection had lower benefit of more frequent boosting, and immunocompromised persons had larger benefit. Scenarios with emerging variants with immune evasion increased the benefit of more frequent variant-targeted boosters. This study underscores the benefit of considering key risk factors to inform frequency of COVID-19 booster vaccines in public health guidance and ensuring at least annual boosters in high-risk populations.

Detecting changes in generation and serial intervals under varying pathogen biology, contact patterns and outbreak response

The epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission have changed over the pandemic due to emergence of new variants. A decrease in the generation or serial intervals would imply a shortened transmission timescale and, hence, outbreak response measures would need to expand at a faster rate. However, there are challenges in measuring these intervals. Alongside epidemiological changes, factors like varying delays in outbreak response, social contact patterns, dependence on the growth phase of an outbreak, and effects of exposure to multiple infectors can also influence measured generation or serial intervals. To guide real-time interpretation of variant data, we simulated concurrent changes in the aforementioned factors and estimated the statistical power to detect a change in the generation and serial interval. We compared our findings to the reported decrease or lack thereof in the generation and serial intervals of different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Our study helps to clarify contradictory outbreak observations and informs the required sample sizes under certain outbreak conditions to ensure that future studies of generation and serial intervals are adequately powered.

Overestimation of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Household Transmission in Settings of High Community Transmission: Insights From an Informal Settlement Community in Salvador, Brazil

Background

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant has spread globally. However, the contribution of community versus household transmission to the overall risk of infection remains unclear.

Methods

Between November 2021 and March 2022, we conducted an active case-finding study in an urban informal settlement with biweekly visits across 1174 households with 3364 residents. Individuals displaying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related symptoms were identified, interviewed along with household contacts, and defined as index and secondary cases based on reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and symptom onset.

Results

In 61 households, we detected a total of 94 RT-PCR-positive cases. Of 69 sequenced samples, 67 cases (97.1%) were attributed to the Omicron BA.1* variant. Among 35 of their households, the secondary attack rate was 50.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.0%-63.0%). Women (relative risk [RR], 1.6 [95% CI, .9-2.7]), older individuals (median difference, 15 [95% CI, 2-21] years), and those reporting symptoms (RR, 1.73 [95% CI, 1.0-3.0]) had a significantly increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 secondary infection. Genomic analysis revealed substantial acquisition of viruses from the community even among households with other SARS-CoV-2 infections. After excluding community acquisition, we estimated a household secondary attack rate of 24.2% (95% CI, 11.9%-40.9%).

Conclusions

These findings underscore the ongoing risk of community acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 among households with current infections. The observed high attack rate necessitates swift booster vaccination, rapid testing availability, and therapeutic options to mitigate the severe outcomes of COVID-19.

Seroprevalence of IgM/IgG and Neutralizing Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in Unvaccinated Young Adults from Mexico Who Reported Not Having Had a Previous COVID-19 Infection

Background

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It is estimated that more than half of new infections are transmitted by asymptomatic people; therefore, the isolation of symptomatic people is not enough to control the spread of the disease.

Methods

A total of 171 unvaccinated young adults (18-35 years) from Sonora, Mexico, who underwent a structured survey to identify prior COVID-19 infections, were included in this study. A qualitative determination of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in serum was performed by lateral flow immunoassay (Certum IgG/IgM Rapid Test™ cassette kit) and neutralizing antibodies were also determined (GenScript cPass assay).

Results

A total of 36 people reported a history of COVID-19 infection, and 135 reported no history of COVID-19. In contrast, 49.6% (67/135) of individuals who had not reported a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were seropositive to the rapid anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody test, and 48.1% (65/135) of them had neutralizing antibodies.

Conclusions

These results suggest that in young adults, SARS-CoV-2 infections could be asymptomatic in a high percentage of individuals, which could contribute in part to the slow control of the current pandemic due to the large number of asymptomatic cases that are contagious and that could be a silent spread of the virus.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Household Transmission during the Omicron Era in Massachusetts: A Prospective, Case-Ascertained Study using Genomic Epidemiology

Background

Households are a major setting for SARS-CoV-2 infections, but there remains a lack of knowledge regarding the dynamics of viral transmission, particularly in the setting of widespread pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 immunity and evolving variants.

Methods

We conducted a prospective, case-ascertained household transmission study in the greater Boston area in March-July 2022. Anterior nasal swabs, along with clinical and demographic data, were collected for 14 days. Nasal swabs were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR. Whole genome sequencing was performed on high-titer samples.

Results

We enrolled 33 households in a primary analysis set, with a median age of participants of 25 years old (range 2-66); 98% of whom had received at least 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. 58% of households had a secondary case during follow up and the secondary attack rate (SAR) for contacts infected was 39%. We further examined a strict analysis set of 21 households that had only 1 PCR+ case at baseline, finding an SAR of 22.5%. Genomic epidemiology further determined that there were multiple sources of infection for household contacts, including the index case and outside introductions. When limiting estimates to only highly probable transmissions given epidemiologic and genomic data, the SAR was 18.4%.

Conclusions

Household contacts of a person newly diagnosed with COVID-19 are at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the following 2 weeks. This is, however, not only due to infection from the household index case, but also because the presence of an infected household member implies increased SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. Further studies to understand and mitigate household transmission are needed.

Source of SARS-CoV-2 infection: results from a series of 584,846 cases in France from October 2020 to August 2022

BACKGROUND

We aimed to study the source of infection for recently SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals from October 2020 to August 2022 in France.

METHODS

Participants from the nationwide ComCor case-control study who reported recent SARS-CoV-2 infection were asked to document the source and circumstances of their infection through an online questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with not identifying any source of infection.

RESULTS

Among 584,846 adults with a recent SARS-CoV-2 infection in France, 46.9% identified the source of infection and an additional 22.6% suspected an event during which they might have become infected. Known and suspected sources of infection were household members (30.8%), extended family (15.6%), work colleagues (15.0%), friends (11.0%), and possibly multiple/other sources (27.6%). When the source of infection was known, was not a household member, and involved a unique contact (n = 69,788), characteristics associated with transmission events were indoors settings (91.6%), prolonged (> 15 min) encounters (50.5%), symptomatic source case (64.9%), and neither the source of infection nor the participant wearing a mask (82.2%). Male gender, older age, lower education, living alone, using public transportation, attending places of public recreation (bars, restaurants, nightclubs), public gatherings, and cultural events, and practicing indoor sports were all independently associated with not knowing the source of infection.

CONCLUSION

Two-thirds of infections were attributed to interactions with close relatives, friends, or work colleagues. Extra-household indoor encounters without masks were commonly reported and represented avoidable circumstances of infection.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT04607941.

Association between COVID-19 Vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 Infection among Household Contacts of Infected Individuals: A Prospective Household Study in England

BACKGROUND

We investigated whether COVID-19 vaccination reduced SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among adult household contacts of COVID-19 index cases during the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron waves in England.

METHODS

Between February 2021 and February 2022, SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR nasal swabs were collected from COVID-19-confirmed index cases aged ≥20 years and their household contacts at enrolment and three and seven days thereafter. Generalized Estimating Equations models were fitted with SARS-CoV-2 positivity as the outcome and household contacts' vaccination status as the main exposure while adjusting for confounders.

RESULTS

SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed in 238/472 household contacts (50.4%) aged ≥20 years. The adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval) of infection in vaccinated versus unvaccinated household contacts was 0.50 (0.35-0.72) and 0.69 (0.53-0.90) for receipt of two doses 8-90 and >90 days ago, respectively, and 0.34 (0.23-0.50) for vaccination with three doses 8-151 days ago. Primary vaccination protected household contacts against infection during the Alpha and Delta waves, but only three doses protected during the Omicron wave. Vaccination with three doses in the index case independently reduced contacts' infection risk: 0.45 (0.23-0.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination of household contacts reduces their risk of infection under conditions of household exposure though, for Omicron, only after a booster dose.

Transmission characteristics and inactivated vaccine effectiveness against transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 variant in Shenzhen, China

We conducted a retrospective cohort study to evaluate the transmission risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron BA.2 variant and the effectiveness of inactivated COVID-19 vaccine boosters in Shenzhen during a BA.2 outbreak period from 1 February to 21 April 2022. A total of 1,248 individuals were infected with the BA.2 variant, and 7,855 close contacts were carefully investigated. The risk factors for the high secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection were household contacts [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.748; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.448, 2.110], younger individuals aged 0-17 years (aOR: 2.730; 95% CI: 2.118, 3.518), older persons aged ≥60 years (aOR: 1.342; 95% CI: 1.135, 1.588), women (aOR: 1.442; 95% CI: 1.210, 1.718), and the subjects exposed to the post-onset index cases (aOR: 8.546; 95% CI: 6.610, 11.050), respectively. Compared with the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated individuals, a relatively low risk of secondary attack was found for the individuals who received booster vaccination (aOR: 0.871; 95% CI: 0.761, 0.997). Moreover, a high transmission risk was found for the index cases aged ≥60 years (aOR: 1.359; 95% CI: 1.132, 1.632), whereas a relatively low transmission risk was observed for the index cases who received full vaccination (aOR: 0.642; 95% CI: 0.490, 0.841) and booster vaccination (aOR: 0.676; 95% CI: 0.594, 0.770). Compared with full vaccination, booster vaccination of inactivated COVID-19 vaccine showed an effectiveness of 24.0% (95% CI: 7.0%, 37.9%) against BA.2 transmission for the adults ≥18 years and 93.7% (95% CI: 72.4%, 98.6%) for the adults ≥60 years, whereas the effectiveness was 51.0% (95% CI: 21.9%, 69.3%) for the individuals of 14 days to 179 days after booster vaccination and 51.2% (95% CI: 37.5%, 61.9%) for the non-household contacts. The estimated mean values of the generation interval, serial interval, incubation period, latent period, and viral shedding period were 2.7 days, 3.2 days, 2.4 days, 2.1 days, and 17.9 days, respectively. In summary, our results confirmed that the main transmission route of Omicron BA.2 subvariant was household contact, and booster vaccination of the inactivated vaccines was relatively effective against BA.2 subvariant transmission in older people.

Risk Factors for Community and Intrahousehold Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: Modeling in a Nationwide French Population-Based Cohort Study, the EpiCoV Study

We assessed the risk of acquiring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from household and community exposure according to age, family ties, and socioeconomic and living conditions using serological data from a nationwide French population-based cohort study, the Epidémiologie et Conditions de Vie (EpiCoV) Study. A history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was defined by a positive anti-SARS-CoV-2 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay immunoglobulin G result in November-December 2020. We applied stochastic chain binomial models fitted to the final distribution of household infections to data from 17,983 individuals aged ≥6 years from 8,165 households. Models estimated the competing risks of being infected from community and household exposure. The age group 18-24 years had the highest risk of extrahousehold infection (8.9%, 95% credible interval (CrI): 7.5, 10.4), whereas the oldest (≥75 years) and youngest (6-10 years) age groups had the lowest risk, at 2.6% (95% CrI: 1.8, 3.5) and 3.4% (95% CrI: 1.9, 5.2), respectively. Extrahousehold infection was also associated with socioeconomic conditions. Within households, the probability of person-to-person transmission increased with age, from 10.6% (95% CrI: 5.0, 17.9) among children aged 6-10 years to 43.1% (95% CrI: 32.6, 53.2) among adults aged 65-74 years. Transmission was higher between partners (29.9%, 95% CrI: 25.6, 34.3) and from mother to child (29.1%, 95% CrI: 21.4, 37.3) than between individuals related by other family ties. In 2020 in France, the main factors identified for extrahousehold SARS-CoV-2 infection were age and socioeconomic conditions. Intrahousehold infection mainly depended on age and family ties.

Pediatric and Young Adult Household Transmission of the Initial Waves of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States: Administrative Claims Study

BACKGROUND

The correlates responsible for the temporal changes of intrahousehold SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States have been understudied mainly due to a lack of available surveillance data. Specifically, early analyses of SARS-CoV-2 household secondary attack rates (SARs) were small in sample size and conducted cross-sectionally at single time points. From these limited data, it has been difficult to assess the role that different risk factors have had on intrahousehold disease transmission in different stages of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in children and youth.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the transmission dynamic and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 among pediatric and young adult index cases (age 0 to 25 years) in the United States through the initial waves of the pandemic.

METHODS

Using administrative claims, we analyzed 19 million SARS-CoV-2 test records between January 2020 and February 2021. We identified 36,241 households with pediatric index cases and calculated household SARs utilizing complete case information. Using a retrospective cohort design, we estimated the household SARS-CoV-2 transmission between 4 index age groups (0 to 4 years, 5 to 11 years, 12 to 17 years, and 18 to 25 years) while adjusting for sex, family size, quarter of first SARS-CoV-2 positive record, and residential regions of the index cases.

RESULTS

After filtering all household records for greater than one member in a household and missing information, only 36,241 (0.85%) of 4,270,130 households with a pediatric case remained in the analysis. Index cases aged between 0 and 17 years were a minority of the total index cases (n=11,484, 11%). The overall SAR of SARS-CoV-2 was 23.04% (95% CI 21.88-24.19). As a comparison, the SAR for all ages (0 to 65+ years) was 32.4% (95% CI 32.1-32.8), higher than the SAR for the population between 0 and 25 years of age. The highest SAR of 38.3% was observed in April 2020 (95% CI 31.6-45), while the lowest SAR of 15.6% was observed in September 2020 (95% CI 13.9-17.3). It consistently decreased from 32% to 21.1% as the age of index groups increased. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, we found that the youngest pediatric age group (0 to 4 years) had 1.69 times (95% CI 1.42-2.00) the odds of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to any family members when compared with the oldest group (18 to 25 years). Family size was significantly associated with household viral transmission (odds ratio 2.66, 95% CI 2.58-2.74).

CONCLUSIONS

Using retrospective claims data, the pediatric index transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the initial waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was associated with location and family characteristics. Pediatric SAR (0 to 25 years) was less than the SAR for all age other groups. Less than 1% (n=36,241) of all household data were retained in the retrospective study for complete case analysis, perhaps biasing our findings. We have provided measures of baseline household pediatric transmission for tracking and comparing the infectivity of later SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Examining double standards in layoff preferences and expectations for gender, age, and ethnicity when violating the social norm of vaccination

Whether vaccination refusal is perceived as a social norm violation that affects layoff decisions has not been tested. Also unknown is whether ascribed low-status groups are subject to double standards when they violate norms, experiencing stronger sanctions in layoff preferences and expectations, and whether work performance attenuates such sanctioning. Therefore, we study layoff preferences and expectations using a discrete choice experiment within a large representative online survey in Germany (N = 12,136). Respondents chose between two employee profiles, each with information about ascribed characteristics signaling different status groups (gender, age, and ethnicity), work performance (work quality and quantity, and social skills), and whether the employees refused to vaccinate against COVID-19. We found that employees who refused vaccination were more likely to be preferred and expected to be laid off. Respondents also expected double standards regarding layoffs due to vaccination refusal, hence, harsher treatment of females and older employees. Nonetheless, their preferences did not reflect such double standards. We found little support that high work performance attenuates these sanctions and double standards, opening questions about the conditions under which social biases arise. Our results suggest detrimental consequences of vaccination refusal for individuals, the labor market, and acceptance of health policies.

Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study

Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of susceptibility and infectivity by person-type. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is usually the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we estimate age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates using data from a prospective household-based study in the Netherlands. A total of 307 households containing 1,209 persons were included from August 2020 until March 2021. Follow-up of households took place between August 2020 and August 2021 with maximal follow-up per household mostly limited to 161 days. Almost 1 out of 5 households (59/307) had evidence of an introduction of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates in our study population with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. Best fitting transmission models included increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses indicate that vaccination of adults can strongly reduce household infection attack rates and that adding adolescent vaccination offers limited added benefit.

Assessing the effects of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination on the risk of household transmission during delta variant circulation: a population-based data linkage cohort study

Background

Data on SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness to reduce transmission of infection in household settings are limited. We examined the effects of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines on Delta variant transmission within households in an infection-naïve population.

Methods

This was a population-based data linkage cohort study in the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area, New South Wales, Australia based on cases observed in June-November 2021. In households with ≥1 confirmed COVID-19 case, we calculated adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) for the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, by vaccination status (unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, fully vaccinated, or waning) and type of vaccines (mRNA or vector-based) received by both index cases and household contacts.

Findings

In 20,651 households with a single index case, 18,542 of 72,768 (25%) household contacts tested PCR-positive ≤14 days after their respective index case. Household contacts with partial, full, or waning mRNA vaccination had aORs of 0.46 (95% CI 0.40-0.52), 0.36 (95% CI 0.32-0.41) and 0.64 (95% CI 0.51-0.80) compared to unvaccinated contacts, while for vector vaccines the corresponding aORs were 0.77 (95% CI 0.67-0.89), 0.65 (95% CI 0.55-0.76), and 0.64 (95% CI 0.39-1.05). Full mRNA-vaccination in index cases compared to non-vaccination was associated with aORs between 0.09 and 0.21 depending on the vaccination status of household contacts.

Interpretation

Full vaccination of household contacts reduced the odds to acquire infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in household settings by two thirds for mRNA vaccines and by one third for vector vaccines. For index cases, being fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine reduced the odds of onwards transmission by four-fifths compared to unvaccinated index cases. Full vaccination offered stronger protection than partial vaccination, particularly for mRNA vaccines, but with reduced effects when the last vaccination preceded exposure by ≥3 months.

Funding

New South Wales Ministry of Health.

Effects of Mitigation and Control Policies in Realistic Epidemic Models Accounting for Household Transmission Dynamics

BACKGROUND

Compartmental infectious disease (ID) models are often used to evaluate nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines. Such models rarely separate within-household and community transmission, potentially introducing biases in situations in which multiple transmission routes exist. We formulated an approach that incorporates household structure into ID models, extending the work of House and Keeling.

DESIGN

We developed a multicompartment susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible-vaccinated (MC-SEIRSV) modeling framework, allowing nonexponentially distributed duration in exposed and infectious compartments, that tracks within-household and community transmission. We simulated epidemics that varied by community and household transmission rates, waning immunity rate, household size (3 or 5 members), and numbers of exposed and infectious compartments (1-3 each). We calibrated otherwise identical models without household structure to the early phase of each parameter combination's epidemic curve. We compared each model pair in terms of epidemic forecasts and predicted NPI and vaccine impacts on the timing and magnitude of the epidemic peak and its total size. Meta-analytic regressions characterized the relationship between household structure inclusion and the size and direction of biases.

RESULTS

Otherwise similar models with and without household structure produced equivalent early epidemic curves. However, forecasts from models without household structure were biased. Without intervention, they were upward biased on peak size and total epidemic size, with biases also depending on the number of exposed and infectious compartments. Model-estimated NPI effects of a 60% reduction in community contacts on peak time and size were systematically overestimated without household structure. Biases were smaller with a 20% reduction NPI. Because vaccination affected both community and household transmission, their biases were smaller.

CONCLUSIONS

ID models without household structure can produce biased outcomes in settings in which within-household and community transmission differ.

HIGHLIGHTS

Infectious disease models rarely separate household transmission from community transmission. The pace of household transmission may differ from community transmission, depends on household size, and can accelerate epidemic growth.Many infectious disease models assume exponential duration distributions for infected states. However, the duration of most infections is not exponentially distributed, and distributional choice alters modeled epidemic dynamics and intervention effectiveness.We propose a mathematical framework for household and community transmission that allows for nonexponential duration times and a suite of interventions and quantified the effect of accounting for household transmission by varying household size and duration distributions of infected states on modeled epidemic dynamics.Failure to include household structure induces biases in the modeled overall course of an epidemic and the effects of interventions delivered differentially in community settings. Epidemic dynamics are faster and more intense in populations with larger household sizes and for diseases with nonexponentially distributed infectious durations. Modelers should consider explicitly incorporating household structure to quantify the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., shelter-in-place).

High SARS-CoV-2 attack rates in areas with low detection after community transmission established in Port Vila, Vanuatu, April 2022

Objective

On 4 March 2022, the first community-acquired case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was reported in Vanuatu, with community transmission occurring subsequently. It was expected that the number of notified SARS-CoV-2 cases would be an underestimate of the true infection rate of this outbreak; however, the magnitude of underreporting was unknown. The purpose of this study was to provide a population-based estimate of SARS-CoV-2 infection shortly after the first reports of community transmission, to understand the level of underdetection and undernotification in Vanuatu and thus to inform ongoing prevention and response activities.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional SARS-CoV-2 prevalence study in two geographical administrative areas in Port Vila, Vanuatu in April 2022. All residents in selected areas were eligible. Trained teams conducted demographic and behavioural interviews and collected nasal specimens. Specimens were tested by polymerase chain reaction. The primary outcomes were the rates of SARS-CoV-2 attack (point prevalence) and cumulative attack, underdetection, notification and household secondary attack.

Results

A total of 252 people from 84 households participated. Among 175 people who had a sample collected, 91 were SARS-CoV-2-positive (attack rate 52.0%). Most cases had not been detected before the study (underdetection rate 91.5%). More than half of previously detected cases were notified (notification rate 65.2%).

Discussion

Within the first few weeks of community transmission, more than half of participants in the selected areas had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, most infections had been undetected. This study provides important information about the rapid spread of novel infectious diseases in Vanuatu.

An ethical framework adapted for infection prevention and control

OBJECTIVE

The ethical implications of infection prevention and control (IPAC) are recognized, yet a framework to guide the application of ethical principles is lacking. We adapted an ethical framework to provide a systematic approach for fair and transparent IPAC decision making.

METHODS

We conducted a literature search for existing ethical frameworks in IPAC. Working with practicing healthcare ethicists, an existing ethical framework was adapted for use in IPAC. Indications were developed for application to practice, with integration of ethical principles and process conditions specifically relevant to IPAC. Practical refinements were made to the framework based on end-user feedback and application to 2 real-world situations.

RESULTS

In total, 7 articles were identified that discussed ethical principles within IPAC, but none proposed a systematic framework to guide ethical decision making. The adapted framework, named the Ethical Infection Prevention and Control (EIPAC) framework, takes the user through 4 intuitive and actionable steps, centering key ethical principles that facilitate reasoned and just decision making. In applying the EIPAC framework to practice, weighing the predefined ethical principles in different scenarios was a challenge. Although no hierarchy of principles can apply to all contexts in IPAC, our experience highlighted that the equitable distribution of benefits and burdens, and the proportional impacts of options under review, are particularly important considerations for IPAC.

CONCLUSIONS

The EIPAC framework can serve as an actionable ethical principles-based decision-making tool for use by IPAC professionals encountering complex situations in any healthcare context.

Estimation of waning vaccine effectiveness from population-level surveillance data in multi-variant epidemics

Monitoring time-varying vaccine effectiveness (e.g., due to waning of immunity and the emergence of novel variants) provides crucial information for outbreak control. Existing studies of time-varying vaccine effectiveness have used individual-level data, most importantly dates of vaccination and variant classification, which are often not available in a timely manner or from a wide range of population groups. We present a novel Bayesian framework for estimating the waning of variant-specific vaccine effectiveness in the presence of multi-variant circulation from population-level surveillance data. Applications to simulated outbreaks and the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan are also presented. Our results show that variant-specific waning vaccine effectiveness estimated from population-level surveillance data could approximately reproduce the estimates from previous test-negative design studies, allowing for rapid, if crude, assessment of the epidemic situation before fine-scale studies are made available.

Monte Carlo Regression for Evaluating Children's Role in the Pandemic Spread on the Example of Delta COVID-19 Wave

BACKGROUND

The children's role in transmitting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the familial settings is uncertain. We aimed to assess how often children were the index cases transmitting SARS-CoV-2 into their households during the Delta wave, and to identify risk factors of children being the index case.

METHODS

In this prospective survey study, we collected information regarding household members of SARS-CoV-2-positive children tested in a single tertiary hospital. Some patients were tested with polymerase chain reaction and those samples were typed and classified as Delta or non-Delta variant. We have used the Monte Carlo approach to assess predictors of children being the index case in the household.

RESULTS

We surveyed 629 families and 515 of them fulfilled inclusion criteria. The child was the index case in 359 (69.71%) households. Attending childcare facilities in all age groups was positively associated with being the index case in the household [nursery, estimate = 1.456, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.456-1.457, P < 0.001; kindergarten, estimate = 0.899, 95% CI: 0.898-0.900, P = 0.003; school, estimate = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.229-1.231, P = 0.001]. The same association was present in the subgroup of the families with the predominant Delta variant, but not in the subgroup with the predominant non-Delta variant.

CONCLUSIONS

Attending childcare and educational facilities might be a significant predictor of a child being the SARS-CoV-2 index case in their household. Children's role in driving the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic changes in consecutive waves. The Monte Carlo approach can be applied to assess risk factors of infectious agents' spread in future epidemics.

Knowledge of COVID-19 symptoms, transmission, and prevention: Evidence from health and demographic surveillance in Southern Mozambique

Understanding community members' knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and prevention is essential for directing public health interventions to reduce disease spread and improve vaccination coverage. Here, we describe knowledge of COVID-19 transmission, prevention, and symptoms among community residents in Mozambique. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 33,087 households in a Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Manhiça, Mozambique. Participants were recruited in April 2021 before the Delta variant wave to the peak of Omicron cases in February 2022. Principal components analysis was used to create scores representing knowledge of COVID-19 symptoms, transmission, and prevention. Multiple imputation and quasi-Poisson regression were used to examine associations between demographic characteristics and sources of COVID-19 information, and knowledge of COVID-19 symptoms, transmission, and prevention. We examined whether sources of COVID-19 information mediated the relationship between educational attainment and knowledge of symptoms, transmission, and prevention. Across this rural community, 98.2%, 97.0%, and 85.1% of respondents reported knowing how COVID-19 could be prevented, that SARS-CoV-2 can cause disease, and how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted, respectively. The most recognized COVID-19 symptoms were cough (51.2%), headaches (44.9%), and fever (44.5%); transmission mechanisms were saliva droplets (50.5%) or aerosol (46.9%) from an infected person; and prevention measures were handwashing (91.9%) and mask-wearing (91.8%). Characteristics associated with greater knowledge of symptoms, transmission, and prevention included having at least primary education, older age, employment, higher wealth, and Christian religion. Respondents who had experienced COVID-19 symptoms were also more likely to possess knowledge of symptoms, transmission, and prevention. Receiving information from television, WhatsApp, radio, and hospital, mediated the relationship between educational attainment and knowledge scores. These findings support the need for outreach and for community-engaged messaging to promote prevention measures, particularly among people with low education.

Scalable Strategies to Increase Efficiency and Augment Public Health Activities During Epidemic Peaks

OBJECTIVE

Scalable strategies to reduce the time burden and increase contact tracing efficiency are crucial during early waves and peaks of infectious transmission.

DESIGN

We enrolled a cohort of SARS-CoV-2-positive seed cases into a peer recruitment study testing social network methodology and a novel electronic platform to increase contact tracing efficiency.

SETTING

Index cases were recruited from an academic medical center and requested to recruit their local social contacts for enrollment and SARS-CoV-2 testing.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 509 adult participants enrolled over 19 months (384 seed cases and 125 social peers).

INTERVENTION

Participants completed a survey and were then eligible to recruit their social contacts with unique "coupons" for enrollment. Peer participants were eligible for SARS-CoV-2 and respiratory pathogen screening.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measures were the percentage of tests administered through the study that identified new SARS-CoV-2 cases, the feasibility of deploying the platform and the peer recruitment strategy, the perceived acceptability of the platform and the peer recruitment strategy, and the scalability of both during pandemic peaks.

RESULTS

After development and deployment, few human resources were needed to maintain the platform and enroll participants, regardless of peaks. Platform acceptability was high. Percent positivity tracked with other testing programs in the area.

CONCLUSIONS

An electronic platform may be a suitable tool to augment public health contact tracing activities by allowing participants to select an online platform for contact tracing rather than sitting for an interview.

SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers: the role of occupational and household exposures during the first three pandemic waves in Quebec, Canada

Objective

We described the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 source of infection in a cohort of healthcare workers (HCWs) of Quebec, Canada, during the first three pandemic waves. We also estimated their household secondary attack rate (SAR) and its risk factors.

Design

Cross-sectional surveys.

Participants

HCWs with a SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by polymerasa chain reaction and diagnosed between March 2020 and May 2021.

Methods

We collected demographic, clinical, vaccination, and employment information, self-reported perceived source of infection, and transmission to household members during the first three pandemic waves. SAR was calculated for households with ≥2 members where the HCW was the index case. A Poisson regression model estimated the association between risk factors and SAR.

Results

Among the 11,670 HCWs completing the survey, 91%, perceived their workplace as the source of infection during the first wave (March-July 2020), 71% during the second wave (July 2020-March 2021), and 40% during the third wave (March-May 2021). Conversely, HCWs reported an increasing proportion of household-acquired infections with each wave from 4% to 14% and 33%, respectively. The overall household SAR of 7,990 HCWs living with ≥1 person was 30% (95%CI: 29-30). SAR increased with the presence of symptoms, older age, and during Alpha-variant predominant period.

Conclusions

HCWs and their household members were largely affected during the first pandemic waves of COVID-19, but the relative importance of occupational exposure changed overtime. Pandemic preparedness in healthcare settings is essential to protect HCWs from emerging biological hazard exposures.

Effectiveness of booster vaccination with inactivated COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 infection in Guangdong, China: a cohort study

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines wanes over time and the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant led to the accelerated expansion of efforts for booster vaccination. However, the effect and contribution of booster vaccination with inactivated COVID-19 vaccines remain to be evaluated. We conducted a retrospective close contacts cohort study to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and Omicron infection risk, and to evaluate the effectiveness of booster vaccination with inactivated COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic COVID-19, and COVID-19 pneumonia during the outbreaks of Omicron BA.2 infection from 1 February to 31 July 2022 in Guangdong, China. A total of 46,547 close contacts were identified while 6.3% contracted Omicron BA.2 infection, 1.8% were asymptomatic infection, 4.1% developed mild COVID-19, and 0.3% had COVID-19 pneumonia. We found that females and individuals aged 0-17 or ≥ 60 years old were more prone to SARS-CoV-2 infection. The vaccinated individuals showed lower infection risk when compared with the unvaccinated people. The effectiveness of booster vaccination with inactivated COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19 was 28.6% (95% CI: 11.6%, 35.0%) and 39.6% (95% CI: 30.0, 47.9) among adults aged ≥ 18 years old, respectively when compared with full vaccination. Booster vaccination provided a moderate level of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection (VE: 49.9%, 95% CI: 22.3%-67.7%) and symptomatic COVID-19 (VE: 62.6%, 95% CI: 36.2%-78.0%) among adults aged ≥ 60 years old. Moreover, the effectiveness of booster vaccination was 52.2% (95% CI: 21.3%, 70.9%) and 83.8% (95% CI: 28.1%, 96.3%) against COVID-19 pneumonia in adults aged ≥ 18 and ≥ 60 years old, respectively. The reduction of absolute risk rate of COVID-19 pneumonia in the booster vaccination group was 0·96% (95% CI: 0.33%, 1.11%), and the number needed to vaccinate to prevent one case of COVID-19 pneumonia was 104 (95% CI: 91, 303) in adults aged ≥ 60 years old. In summary, booster vaccination with inactivated COVID-19 vaccines provides a low level of protection against infection and symptomatic in adults of 18-59 years old, and a moderate level of protection in older adults of more than 60 years old, but a high level of protection against COVID-19 pneumonia in older adults.

Incidence and Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in US Child Care Centers After COVID-19 Vaccines

Importance

SARS-CoV-2 surveillance studies in US child care centers (CCCs) in the post-COVID-19 vaccine era are needed to provide information on incidence and transmission in this setting.

Objective

To characterize SARS-CoV-2 incidence and transmission in children attending CCCs (students) and their child care providers (CCPs) and household contacts.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective surveillance cohort study was conducted from April 22, 2021, through March 31, 2022, and included 11 CCCs in 2 cities. A subset (surveillance group) of CCPs and students participated in active surveillance (weekly reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction [RT-PCR] swabs, symptom diaries, and optional baseline and end-of-study SARS-CoV-2 serologic testing), as well as all household contacts of surveillance students. Child care center directors reported weekly deidentified self-reported COVID-19 cases from all CCPs and students (self-report group).

Exposure

SARS-CoV-2 infection in CCC students.

Main Outcomes and Measures

SARS-CoV-2 incidence, secondary attack rates, and transmission patterns were determined from diary entries, self-reports to CCC directors, and case logs. Incidence rate ratios were measured using Poisson regression clustering on centers with a random intercept and unstructured matrix.

Results

From a total population of 1154 students and 402 CCPs who self-reported cases to center directors, 83 students (7.2%; mean [SD] age, 3.86 [1.64] years; 55 male [66%]), their 134 household contacts (118 adults [mean (SD) age, 38.39 (5.07) years; 62 female (53%)], 16 children [mean (SD) age, 4.73 (3.37) years; 8 female (50%)]), and 21 CCPs (5.2%; mean [SD] age, 38.5 [12.9] years; 18 female [86%]) participated in weekly active surveillance. There were 154 student cases (13%) and 87 CCP cases (22%), as defined by positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR or home antigen results. Surveillance students had a higher incidence rate than self-report students (incidence rate ratio, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-3.3; P = .01). Students were more likely than CCPs to have asymptomatic infection (34% vs 8%, P < .001). The CCC secondary attack rate was 2.7% to 3.0%, with the upper range representing possible but not definite secondary cases. Whether the index case was a student or CCP, transmission within the CCC was not significantly different. Household cumulative incidence was 20.5%, with no significant difference in incidence rate ratio between adults and children. Household secondary attack rates were 50% for children and 67% for adults. Of 30 household cases, only 5 (17%) represented secondary infections caused by 3 students who acquired SARS-CoV-2 from their CCC. Pre- and poststudy seroprevalence rates were 3% and 22%, respectively, with 90% concordance with antigen or RT-PCR results.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study of SARS-CoV-2 incidence and transmission in CCCs and students' households, transmission within CCCs and from children infected at CCCs into households was low. These findings suggest that current testing and exclusion recommendations for SARS-CoV-2 in CCCs should be aligned with those for other respiratory viruses with similar morbidity and greater transmission to households.

Distinguishing the Vaccine Effectiveness of Inactivated BBIBP-CorV Vaccine Booster Against the Susceptibility, Infectiousness, and Transmission of Omicron Stains: A Retrospective Cohort Study in Urumqi, China

INTRODUCTION

With COVID-19 vaccination rolled out globally, increasing numbers of studies have shown that booster vaccines can enhance an individual's protection against the infection, hospitalization, and death caused by SARS-CoV-2. This study evaluated the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine BBIBP-CorV booster against being infected (susceptibility), infecting others (infectiousness), and spreading the disease from one to another (transmission).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study investigated the close contacts of all officially ascertained COVID-19 confirmed cases in Urumqi, China between August 1 and September 7, 2022. Eligible records were divided into four subcohorts based on the vaccination status of both the close contact and their source case: group 2-2, 2-dose contacts seeded by 2-dose source case (as the reference level); group 2-3, 3-dose contacts seeded by 2-dose source case; group 3-2, 2-dose contacts seeded by 3-dose source case; and group 3-3, 3-dose contacts seeded by 3-dose source case. In the four subcohorts, multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the BBIBP-CorV booster dose. We adjusted for potential confounding variables, including the sex and age of source cases and close contacts, the calendar week of contact history and contact settings. We evaluated the statistical uncertainty using a 95% confidence interval (CI). In addition, we conducted subgroup analyses to evaluate VE by sex.

RESULTS

The sample sizes of groups 2-2, 2-3, 3-2, and 3-3 were 1184, 3773, 4723, and 27,136 individuals, respectively. Overall VE against susceptibility (group 2-3 vs 2-2) was 42.1% (95% CI 10.6, 62.5), VE against infectiousness (group 3-2 vs 2-2) was 62.0% (95% CI 37.2, 77.0), and VE against transmission (group 3-3 vs 2-2) was 83.7% (95% CI 75.1, 89.4). In the sex-stratified subgroups, male close contacts showed similar VE compared to the overall. However, among female close contacts, while the booster dose improved VE against infectiousness and VE against susceptibility, the VEs were not significantly different from zero.

CONCLUSION

BBIBP-CorV vaccine booster was associated with mild to moderate levels of protection against Omicron susceptibility, infectiousness, and transmission. Real-world assessment of protective performance of COVID-19 vaccines against the risk of Omicron strains is continuously needed, and may provide information that helps vaccination strategy.

COVID Vaccination as a Strategy for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Cardiovascular (CV) disease is a known complication of SARS-CoV-2 infection. A clear benefit of COVID-19 vaccination is a reduction mortality; however, COVID-19 vaccination may also prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aim to describe CV pathology associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and describe how COVID-19 vaccination is a strategy for CVD prevention.

RECENT FINDINGS

The risks and benefits of COVID-19 vaccination have been widely studied. Analysis of individuals with and without pre-existing CVD has shown that COVID-19 vaccination can prevent morbidity associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and reduce mortality. COVID-19 vaccination is effective in preventing myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular events, myopericarditis, and long COVID, all associated with CVD risk factors. Vaccination reduces mortality in patients with pre-existing CVD. Further study investigating ideal vaccination schedules for individuals with CVD should be undertaken to protect this vulnerable group and address new risks from variants of concern.

Factors associated with household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant to health care workers: A retrospective cohort study

AIM

The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for household transmission of the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND

The household infection rate has been reported to be higher for the omicron variant than for non-omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2. Determination of the risk factors for household transmission of the omicron variant is therefore important.

DESIGN

A Retrospective Cohort Study was conducted.

METHODS

When family members of health care workers (HCWs) were found to be infected with SARS-CoV-2, the HCWs had to receive two nucleic acid amplification tests for SARS-CoV-2: immediately after and 5 to 10 days after the onset of COVID-19 in the family members. Risk factors of household transmission were analysed by comparing cases (HCWs infected with SARS-CoV-2) and controls (HCWs not infected with SARS-CoV-2) using multivariable analysis.

RESULTS

Unvaccinated status (OR: 3.97), age of index cases (≤6 years) (OR: 1.94) and staying at home with index cases (OR: 10.18) were risk factors for household transmission.

CONCLUSION

If there is a strong desire to avoid household infection, family members infected with SARS-CoV-2 should live separately during the period of viral shedding.

Swab pooling enables rapid expansion of high-throughput capacity for SARS-CoV-2 community testing

BACKGROUND

The challenges of rapid upscaling of testing capacity were a major lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic response. The need for process adjustments in high-throughput testing laboratories made sample pooling a challenging option to implement.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate whether pooling samples at source (swab pooling) was as effective as qRT-PCR testing of individuals in identifying cases of SARS-CoV-2 in real-world community testing conditions using the same high-throughput pipeline.

METHODS

Two cohorts of 10 (Pool10: 1,030 participants and 103 pools) and 6 (Pool6: 1,284 participants and 214 pools) samples per pool were tested for concordance, sensitivity, specificity, and Ct value differences with individual testing as reference.

RESULTS

Swab pooling allowed unmodified application of an existing high-throughput SARS-Cov-2 testing pipeline with only marginal loss of accuracy. For Pool10, concordance was 98.1% (95% Confidence interval: 93.3-99.8%), sensitivity was 95.7% (85.5-99.5%), and specificity was 100.0% (93.6-100.0%). For Pool6, concordance was 97.2% (94.0-99.0%), sensitivity was 97.5% (93.7-99.3%), and specificity was 96.4% (87.7-99.6%). Differences of outcomes measure between pool size were not significant. Most positive individual samples, which were not detected in pools, had very low viral concentration. If only individual samples with a viral concentration > 400 copies/ml (i.e. Ct value < 30) were considered positive, the overall sensitivity of pooling increased to 99.5%.

CONCLUSION

The study demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity by swab pooling and the immediate capability of high-throughput laboratories to implement this method making it an option in planning of rapid upscaling of laboratory capacity for future pandemics.

Effect of SARS-CoV-2 prior infection and mRNA vaccination on contagiousness and susceptibility to infection

The immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and infections reduces the transmission of the virus. To answer how the effect of immunity is shared between a reduction of infectiousness and an increased protection against infection, we examined >50,000 positive cases and >110,000 contacts from Geneva, Switzerland (June 2020 to March 2022). We assessed the association between secondary attack rate (i.e. proportion of new cases among contacts) and immunity from natural infection and/or vaccination, stratifying per four SARS-CoV-2 variants and adjusting for index cases and contacts' socio-demographic characteristics and the propensity of the contacts to be tested. Here we show that immunity protected contacts from infection, rather than reducing infectiousness of index cases. Natural infection conferred the strongest immunity. Hybrid immunity did not surpass recent infection. Although of smaller amplitude, the reduction in infectiousness due to vaccination was less affected by time and by the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants than the susceptibility to infection. These findings support the role of vaccine in reducing infectiousness and underscore the complementary role of interventions reducing SARS-CoV-2 propagation, such as mask use or indoor ventilation.

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the close contacts in a small rural area in the Veneto Region (NE-Italy): past evidence for future scenarios

Background

During the first pandemic phase of COVID-19, an epidemiological study, named First survey, was conducted on the population of a small rural area in northern Italy. In spring 2020, the results showed how a prolonged lockdown slowed down the spread of the virus.

Methods

After contacting positive First Survey subjects and their families, those who decided to join voluntarily underwent a blood test to assess the presence of qualitative lgG about 2 months after the previous one. This was to determine if IgG persisted in individuals who tested positive in the First Survey as well as to assess the antibody status of their close family members, to determine if they were unintentionally infected.

Results

Based on serological analysis, 35.1% of the samples contained blood IgG. In subjects who tested positive during the First Survey, 62.5% remained IgG positive more than 2 months later. Among family members who were exposed to a positive relative, 23.7% were infected. Linear regression analysis showed that the presence of an infected person within a household resulted in the infection spreading to the others, but not excessively. Induced isolation extinguished the infection regardless of the extent of the contagion (intra-family or extra-family). Micro-outbreaks of SARS-Cov-2 infection which arose in the same household from extra-familial infections played a decisive role on the statistical significance of IgG-positive subjects (p < 0.001).

Discussion

The study reveal 52.6% of the IgG-positive subjects in the Second Survey came from the First Survey and 47.4% were family members previously in contact with positive subjects. Data suggest that there have been undiagnosed patients feeding the spread of the virus since the beginning of the pandemic. In conclusion, for future pandemics, it will be necessary: i) to ensure the rapid isolation of symptomatic patients and the early identification of their close contacts, ii) to carry out the maximum number of tests in the shortest possible time, both on symptomatic and asymptomatic subjects, and iii) to implement information campaigns to make people aware of their risks, and implement clear, non-conflicting communication.

Predicting the Public Health Impact of Bivalent Vaccines and Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir Against Coronavirus Disease 2019

Background

Uptake of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) bivalent vaccines and the oral medication nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid) has remained low across the United States. Assessing the public health impact of increasing uptake of these interventions in key risk groups can guide further public health resources and policy and determine what proportion of severe COVID-19 is avertable with these interventions.

Methods

This modeling study used person-level data from the California Department of Public Health on COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and vaccine administration from 23 July 2022 to 23 January 2023. We used a quasi-Poisson regression model calibrated to recent historical data to predict future COVID-19 outcomes and modeled the impact of increasing uptake (up to 70% coverage) of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir during acute illness in different risk groups. Risk groups were defined by age (≥50, ≥65, ≥75 years) and vaccination status (everyone, primary series only, previously vaccinated). We predicted the number of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths and number needed to treat (NNT).

Results

The model predicted that increased uptake of bivalent COVID-19 boosters and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (up to 70% coverage) in all eligible persons could avert an estimated 15.7% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 11.2%-20.7%; NNT: 17 310) and 23.5% (95% UI, 13.1%-30.0%; NNT: 67) of total COVID-19-related deaths, respectively. In the high-risk group of persons ≥65 years old alone, increased uptake of bivalent boosters and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir could avert an estimated 11.9% (95% UI, 8.4%-15.1%; NNT: 2757) and 22.8% (95% UI, 12.7%-29.2%; NNT: 50) of total COVID-19-related deaths, respectively.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that prioritizing uptake of bivalent boosters and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir among older age groups (≥65 years) would be most effective (based on NNT) but would not address the entire burden of severe COVID-19.

Symptom prevalence and secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in rural Kenyan households: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

We estimated the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household contacts of PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in rural Kenya and analysed risk factors for transmission.

METHODS

We enrolled incident PCR-confirmed cases and their household members. At baseline, a questionnaire, a blood sample, and naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Household members were followed 4, 7, 10, 14, 21 and 28 days after the date of the first PCR-positive in the household; naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected at each visit and used to define secondary cases. Blood samples were collected every 1-2 weeks. Symptoms were collected in a daily symptom diary. We used binomial regression to estimate secondary attack rates and survival analysis to analyse risk factors for transmission.

RESULTS

A total of 119 households with at least one positive household member were enrolled between October 2020 and September 2022, comprising 503 household members; 226 remained in follow-up at day 14 (45%). A total of 43 secondary cases arose within 14 days of identification of the primary case, and 81 household members remained negative. The 7-day secondary attack rate was 4% (95% CI 1%-10%), the 14-day secondary attack rate was 28% (95% CI 17%-40%). Of 38 secondary cases with data, eight reported symptoms (21%, 95% CI 8%-34%). Antibody to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein at enrolment was not associated with risk of becoming a secondary case.

CONCLUSION

Households in our setting experienced a lower 7-day attack rate than a recent meta-analysis indicated as the global average (23%-43% depending on variant), and infection is mostly asymptomatic in our setting.

Effect of COVID-19 vaccination on household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Omicron era: The Vaccine Effectiveness, Networking, and Universal Safety (VENUS) study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination on reducing household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among common household types in Japan during the Omicron variant wave.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted using vaccination records, COVID-19 infection data, and resident registry data from two Japanese municipalities. Households that experienced their first COVID-19 case between January and April 2022 were categorized into two groups according to the presence/absence of children aged ≤11 years. We constructed multivariable logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for household transmission according to the vaccination statuses of primary cases and household contacts.

RESULTS

We analyzed 7326 households with 17,586 contacts. In all households, the OR for household transmission was <0.6 (P <0.001) when the primary case and/or contact were vaccinated. In households with children aged ≤11 years, the OR was 0.71 (P <0.001) when only the contact was vaccinated. In households with all members aged ≥12 years, the OR was <0.5 (P <0.001) when the primary case and/or contact were vaccinated.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 vaccination effectively reduced household transmission in Japan during the Omicron variant wave.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and Sinovac vaccines against the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during Omicron-predominance in Hong Kong: A retrospective cohort study of COVID-19 cases

BACKGROUND

In 2022, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants circulated globally, generating concerns about increased transmissibility and immune escape. Hong Kong, having an infection-naive population with a moderate 2-dose vaccine coverage (63% by the end of 2021), experienced a COVID-19 epidemic largely seeded by Omicron BA.2 variants that led to the greatest outbreak in the region to date. Little remains known about the protection of commonly-administered vaccines against transmission of Omicron BA.2 variants.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we identified 17 535 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases using contact tracing information during the Omicron-predominant period between January and June 2022 in Hong Kong. Demographic characteristics, time from positive test result to case reporting, isolation, or hospital admission, as well as contact tracing history and contact setting were extracted. Transmission pairs were reconstructed through suspected epidemiological links according to contact tracing history, and the number of secondary cases was determined for each index case as a measurement for risk of transmission. The effectiveness of mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2) and inactivated vaccine (Sinovac) against transmission of BA.2 variants was estimated using zero-inflated negative binomial regression models.

RESULTS

Vaccine effectiveness against transmission for patients who received the 2-dose BNT162b2 vaccine was estimated at 56.2% (95% CI: 14.5, 77.6), 30.6% (95% CI: 13.0, 44.6), and 21.3% (95% CI: 2.9, 36.2) on 15 - 90, 91 - 180, and 181 - 270 days after vaccination, respectively, showing a significant decrease over time. For 3-dose vaccines, vaccine effectiveness estimates were 41.0% (95% CI: 11.3, 60.7) and 41.9% (95% CI: 6.1, 64.0) on 15 - 180 days after booster doses of Sinovac and BNT162b2, respectively. Although significant vaccine effectiveness was detected in household settings, no evidence of such protective association was detected in non-household settings for either Sinovac or BNT162b2.

CONCLUSION

Moderate and significant protection against Omicron BA.2 variants' transmission was found for 2 and 3 doses of Sinovac or BNT162b2 vaccines. Although protection by 2-dose BNT162b2 may evidently wane with time, protection could be restored by the booster dose. Here, we highlight the importance of continuously evaluating vaccine effectiveness against transmission for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Evaluating the use of social contact data to produce age-specific short-term forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 incidence in England

Mathematical and statistical models can be used to make predictions of how epidemics may progress in the near future and form a central part of outbreak mitigation and control. Renewal equation based models allow inference of epidemiological parameters from historical data and forecast future epidemic dynamics without requiring complex mechanistic assumptions. However, these models typically ignore interaction between age groups, partly due to challenges in parameterising a time varying interaction matrix. Social contact data collected regularly during the COVID-19 epidemic provide a means to inform interaction between age groups in real-time. We developed an age-specific forecasting framework and applied it to two age-stratified time-series: incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, estimated from a national infection and antibody prevalence survey; and, reported cases according to the UK national COVID-19 dashboard. Jointly fitting our model to social contact data from the CoMix study, we inferred a time-varying next generation matrix which we used to project infections and cases in the four weeks following each of 29 forecast dates between October 2020 and November 2021. We evaluated the forecasts using proper scoring rules and compared performance with three other models with alternative data and specifications alongside two naive baseline models. Overall, incorporating age interaction improved forecasts of infections and the CoMix-data-informed model was the best performing model at time horizons between two and four weeks. However, this was not true when forecasting cases. We found that age group interaction was most important for predicting cases in children and older adults. The contact-data-informed models performed best during the winter months of 2020-2021, but performed comparatively poorly in other periods. We highlight challenges regarding the incorporation of contact data in forecasting and offer proposals as to how to extend and adapt our approach, which may lead to more successful forecasts in future.

Modelling the Interplay between Responsive Individual Vaccination Decisions and the Spread of SARS-CoV-2

The uptake of COVID-19 vaccines remains low despite their high effectiveness. Epidemic models that represent decision-making psychology can provide insight into the potential impact of vaccine promotion interventions in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We coupled a network-based mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Georgia, USA with a social-psychological vaccination decision-making model in which vaccine side effects, post-vaccination infections, and other unidentified community-level factors could "nudge" individuals towards vaccine resistance while hospitalization spikes could nudge them towards willingness. Combining an increased probability of hospitalization-prompted resistant-to-willing switches with a decreased probability of willing-to-resistant switches prompted by unidentified community-level factors increased vaccine uptake and decreased SARS-CoV-2 incidence by as much as 30.7% and 24.0%, respectively. The latter probability had a greater impact than the former. This illustrates the disease prevention potential of vaccine promotion interventions that address community-level factors influencing decision-making and anticipate the case curve instead of reacting to it.

Behavioral factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission heterogeneity within a household cohort in Costa Rica

INTRODUCTION

Variability in household secondary attack rates and transmission risks factors of SARS-CoV-2 remain poorly understood.

METHODS

We conducted a household transmission study of SARS-CoV-2 in Costa Rica, with SARS-CoV-2 index cases selected from a larger prospective cohort study and their household contacts were enrolled. A total of 719 household contacts of 304 household index cases were enrolled from November 21, 2020, through July 31, 2021. Blood specimens were collected from contacts within 30-60 days of index case diagnosis; and serum was tested for presence of spike and nucleocapsid SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 prior infections among household contacts was defined based on the presence of both spike and nucleocapsid antibodies. We fitted a chain binomial model to the serologic data, to account for exogenous community infection risk and potential multi-generational transmissions within the household.

RESULTS

Overall seroprevalence was 53% (95% confidence interval (CI) 48-58%) among household contacts. The estimated household secondary attack rate is 34% (95% CI 5-75%). Mask wearing by the index case is associated with the household transmission risk reduction by 67% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.33 with 95% CI: 0.09-0.75) and not sharing bedroom with the index case is associated with the risk reduction of household transmission by 78% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.22 with 95% CI 0.10-0.41). The estimated distribution of household secondary attack rates is highly heterogeneous across index cases, with 30% of index cases being the source for 80% of secondary cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Modeling analysis suggests that behavioral factors are important drivers of the observed SARS-CoV-2 transmission heterogeneity within the household.