Suicide Deaths Among Women in California Living With Handgun Owners vs Those Living With Other Adults in Handgun-Free Homes, 2004-2016

Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine Position Statement: Gun violence and pregnancy

Position: The Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine acknowledges gun violence as a public health crisis in the United States, with a substantial impact on pregnant and postpartum people. We recognize the urgent need for a robust, equitable, data-driven approach to mitigate the impact of access to firearms and accompanying violence on pregnant and postpartum individuals and communities. As such, the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine endorses the following policy principles.

Updated Estimate of the Number of Extreme Risk Protection Orders Needed to Prevent 1 Suicide

Importance

Extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs)-also known as red flag, risk warrant, and gun violence restraining orders-authorize law enforcement, family members, and sometimes others to petition a court to remove firearms from and prevent the acquisition of new firearms by a person judged to pose an immediate danger to themselves or others. Previous estimates suggest that 1 suicide is prevented for every 10 ERPOs issued, a number needed to treat that depends critically on the counterfactual estimate of the proportion of suicidal acts by ERPO respondents that would have involved firearms in the absence of ERPOs.

Objective

To empirically inform updated estimates of the number of ERPOs needed to prevent 1 suicide.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from California for method-specific suicides by handgun ownership (October 18, 2004, to December 31, 2015). Handgun-owning suicide decedents in California were identified using individual-level registry data about lawful handgun ownership linked to cause-specific mortality for a cohort of more than 25 million adults. The study also used data from Connecticut for method-specific suicides among ERPO respondents who died by suicide, extracted from published data (October 1999 to June 2013). Data analysis was performed in December 2023.

Exposure

Handgun ownership.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were the number and distribution of suicidal acts by handgun owners in California, estimated using method-specific suicide mortality data and published case fatality ratios, and the counterfactual number and distribution of suicidal acts and deaths among ERPO respondents in Connecticut had no ERPOs been issued.

Results

A total of 1216 handgun owners (mean [SD] age, 50 [18] years; 1019 male [83.8%]) died by suicide during the study period. Among male handgun owners in California, 28% of suicidal acts involved firearms, 54% involved drug poisoning, 9% involved cutting or piercing, 3% involved hanging or suffocation, 2% involved poisoning with solids and/or liquids, and the remaining 4% involved other methods. Assuming this distribution approximates the counterfactual distribution among ERPO respondents in Connecticut in the absence of ERPOs, 1 suicide death was prevented for every 22 ERPOs issued.

Conclusions and Relevance

The estimates produced by this cohort study of California handgun owners suggest that ERPOs can play an important role in averting deaths among high-risk individuals.

Adolescent Predictors of Firearm Suicide Over Four Decades of Life in U.S. Men

INTRODUCTION

There are meager individual-level data on long-term predictors of firearm suicide.

METHODS

This was an analysis of males (N=189,558) in the Project Talent cohort, a national probability sample of high school schools in 1960 when students completed a baseline Project Talent self-report inventory. Mortality follow-up was contingent on survival until 1979, the onset of the National Death Index when the cohort had a mean age of 35.7 years. Mortality follow-up continued until death or age 75 years, reached by all surviving members by 2018. Analyses were conducted in 2022, with the main outcome being firearm suicide deaths (n=479). Factor analyses of Project Talent items yielded three key factors: (1) interests in firearm-related professions (i.e., military service, police force), (2) interests in hunting or fishing and knowledge of long guns, and (3) stereotypic masculinity.

RESULTS

Survival analyses showed that long-term risk for firearm suicide was associated with 1-SD increases in firearm-related vocational interests in adolescence (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=1.23 [1.09, 1.40]) and masculinity (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=1.15 [1.04, 1.28]). Decreased long-term firearm suicide risk was associated with increased hunting interests and knowledge of long guns in adolescence (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=0.86 [0.77, 0.96]) and competitive sports participation, an exploratory variable (adjusted hazard ratio [95% CI]=0.89 [0.80, 0.99]).

CONCLUSIONS

Prevention efforts are needed to lower long-term firearm suicide risk among adolescent males with high stereotypic masculinity and those interested in military or police service. Potential protective effects of competitive sports participation and socialization to long guns through hunting require further study.

Geographic Variation, Economic Activity, and Labor Market Characteristics in Trajectories of Suicide in the United States, 2008-2020

Suicide rates in the United States have increased over the past 15 years, with substantial geographic variation in these increases; yet there have been few attempts to cluster counties by the magnitude of suicide rate changes according to intercept and slope or to identify the economic precursors of increases. We used vital statistics data and growth mixture models to identify clusters of counties by their magnitude of suicide growth from 2008 to 2020 and examined associations with county economic and labor indices. Our models identified 5 clusters, each differentiated by intercept and slope magnitude, with the highest-rate cluster (4% of counties) being observed mainly in sparsely populated areas in the West and Alaska, starting the time series at 25.4 suicides per 100,000 population, and exhibiting the steepest increase in slope (0.69/100,000/year). There was no cluster for which the suicide rate was stable or declining. Counties in the highest-rate cluster were more likely to have agricultural and service economies and less likely to have urban professional economies. Given the increased burden of suicide, with no clusters of counties improving over time, additional policy and prevention efforts are needed, particularly targeted at rural areas in the West.

Firearm Injuries In Children And Adolescents: Health And Economic Consequences Among Survivors And Family Members

More US children and adolescents today die from firearms than any other cause, and many more sustain firearm injuries and survive. The clinical and economic impact of these firearm injuries on survivors and family members remains poorly understood. Using 2007-21 commercial health insurance claims data, we studied 2,052 child and adolescent survivors compared to 9,983 matched controls who did not incur firearm injuries, along with 6,209 family members of survivors compared to 29,877 matched controls, and 265 family members of decedents compared to 1,263 matched controls. Through one year after firearm injury, child and adolescent survivors experienced a 117 percent increase in pain disorders, a 68 percent increase in psychiatric disorders, and a 144 percent increase in substance use disorders relative to the controls. Survivors' health care spending increased by an average of $34,884-a 17.1-fold increase-with 95 percent paid by insurers or employers. Parents of survivors experienced a 30-31 percent increase in psychiatric disorders, with 75 percent more mental health visits by mothers, and 5-14 percent reductions in mothers' and siblings' routine medical care. Family members of decedents experienced substantially larger 2.3- to 5.3-fold increases in psychiatric disorders, with at least 15.3-fold more mental health visits among parents. Firearm injuries in youth have notable health implications for the whole family, along with large effects on societal spending.

Identifying Rare Circumstances Preceding Female Firearm Suicides: Validating A Large Language Model Approach

BACKGROUND

Firearm suicide has been more prevalent among males, but age-adjusted female firearm suicide rates increased by 20% from 2010 to 2020, outpacing the rate increase among males by about 8 percentage points, and female firearm suicide may have different contributing circumstances. In the United States, the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) is a comprehensive source of data on violent deaths and includes unstructured incident narrative reports from coroners or medical examiners and law enforcement. Conventional natural language processing approaches have been used to identify common circumstances preceding female firearm suicide deaths but failed to identify rarer circumstances due to insufficient training data.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to leverage a large language model approach to identify infrequent circumstances preceding female firearm suicide in the unstructured coroners or medical examiners and law enforcement narrative reports available in the NVDRS.

METHODS

We used the narrative reports of 1462 female firearm suicide decedents in the NVDRS from 2014 to 2018. The reports were written in English. We coded 9 infrequent circumstances preceding female firearm suicides. We experimented with predicting those circumstances by leveraging a large language model approach in a yes/no question-answer format. We measured the prediction accuracy with F1-score (ranging from 0 to 1). F1-score is the harmonic mean of precision (positive predictive value) and recall (true positive rate or sensitivity).

RESULTS

Our large language model outperformed a conventional support vector machine-supervised machine learning approach by a wide margin. Compared to the support vector machine model, which had F1-scores less than 0.2 for most infrequent circumstances, our large language model approach achieved an F1-score of over 0.6 for 4 circumstances and 0.8 for 2 circumstances.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of a large language model approach shows promise. Researchers interested in using natural language processing to identify infrequent circumstances in narrative report data may benefit from large language models.

Violent Experiences and Patterns of Firearm Ownership From Childhood to Young Adulthood

Importance

Young adults in their 20s are at high relative risk for self- and other-directed firearm injury, but little is known about gun access patterns for this group.

Objective

To describe the longitudinal patterns of firearm access from childhood to young adulthood and to estimate whether violence experienced as a child or as an adult is associated with gun ownership in young adulthood.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Great Smoky Mountains Study included participants from 11 contiguous, mostly rural counties in the Southeastern US. The first wave was completed in 1993 and the most recent in 2019. Periodic survey data were gathered in adolescence through participants' late 20s. In 2023, adjusted Poisson regression with incident rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs were used to estimate associations between violence and gun ownership in young adulthood in 3 age cohorts from the original sample.

Exposures

Violent experiences in childhood (bullying, sexual and physical abuse, violent events, witnessing trauma, physical violence between parents, and school/neighborhood dangerousness) or adulthood (physical and sexual assault).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Initiating gun ownership was defined as no gun access or ownership in childhood followed by gun ownership at age 25 or 30 years. Maintaining gun ownership was defined as reporting gun access or ownership in at least 1 survey in childhood and ownership at age 25 or 30 years.

Results

Among 1260 participants (679 [54%] male; ages 9, 11, and 13 years), gun access or ownership was more common in childhood (women: 366 [63%]; men: 517 [76%]) than in adulthood (women: 207 [36%]; men: 370 [54%]). The most common longitudinal pattern was consistent access or ownership from childhood to adulthood (373 [35%]) followed by having access or ownership in childhood only (408 [32%]). Most of the violent exposures evaluated were not significantly associated with the outcomes. Being bullied at school was common and was associated with reduced ownership initiation (IRR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.61-0.94). Witnessing a violent event was significantly associated with increased probability of becoming a gun owner in adulthood (IRR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.03-1.49).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, gun ownership and access were transitory, even in a geographic area where gun culture is strong. Early adulthood-when the prevalence of gun ownership was relatively low-may represent an opportune time for clinicians and communities to provide education on the risks associated with firearm access, as well as strategies for risk mitigation.

Critical gaps in understanding firearm suicide in Hispanic communities: demographics, mental health, and access to care

Suicide rates increased by 26.7% among Hispanics from 2015 to 2020, driven at least in part by highly lethal firearm suicide deaths. However, there are critical gaps in characterizing firearm suicide risks and prevention opportunities in Hispanic communities. We examined Hispanic adult firearm suicide decedents reported through the National Violent Death Reporting System from 2013-2019, focusing on demographic characteristics, firearm choices, suicidal thoughts/behaviors, mental health, and mental health treatment, compared with non-Hispanic adult firearm suicide decedents. Only 13.8% of Hispanic firearm suicide decedents were known to be undergoing treatment for a mental health or substance use problem prior to death, compared to 18.8% of non-Hispanic firearm suicide decedents. On average, Hispanic firearm suicide decedents were significantly less likely than non-Hispanic firearm suicide decedents known to have been treated for a mental health or substance use problem. These results may underscore the critical need for public health agencies and policymakers to promote initiatives integrating mental health screening into medical care, reducing mental health stigma among Hispanics, and expanding mental health treatment capacity in Hispanic communities.

Lethal Means Counseling for Suicidal Firearm Owners

The death of a patient by suicide is one of the professional events most feared by psychotherapists and firearms are the most commonly used means of suicide. However, as the number of firearm owners within the United States has increased in recent years, so has the risk of firearm-related suicides. Suicidal patients with easy access to their firearms may give in to the wish to die and end their life with little opportunity for reflection or forethought. Furthermore, because the topic of gun control has become so polarized, patients may not always be open to discussing barriers between themselves and their firearms. Nonetheless, psychotherapists using non-judgmental, respectful, and collaborative lethal means counseling can substantially reduce patient suicides.

Handgun Divestment and Risk of Suicide

BACKGROUND

Firearm ownership is strongly related to suicide risk, yet little is known about how much risk declines when ownership ends ("divestment").

METHODS

Using data from 523,182 handgun owners, we estimated the effect of divesting and remaining divested versus never divesting on the risk of suicide and firearm-specific suicide. We used pooled logistic regression with inverse probability weighting, adjusting for demographic and area-level measures.

RESULTS

The 5-year risk of suicide death was 25.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15.1, 37.2) per 10,000 persons with divestment and 15.2 (95% CI = 13.2, 17.3) per 10,000 persons with no divestment, corresponding to a risk difference of 10.4 (95% CI = 0.7, 21.1) per 10,000 persons. The 5-year risk of firearm-specific suicide death was 6.3 (95% CI = 1.4, 11.9) per 10,000 persons with divestment and 12.9 (95% CI = 11.0, 14.6) per 10,000 persons with no divestment, corresponding to a risk difference of -6.6 (95% CI = -11.4, -0.1) per 10,000 persons. Comparing divestment to no divestment, risks were elevated for deaths due to other causes proposed as negative control outcomes; we incorporated these estimates into a series of bias derivations to better understand the magnitude of unmeasured confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

Collectively, these estimates suggest that divestment reduces firearm suicide risk by 50% or more and likely reduces overall suicide risk as well, although future data collection is needed to fully understand the extent of biases such as unmeasured confounding.

Intergenerational social mobility and suicide risk by firearm and other means in US males

Firearms are the leading method of suicide in US men, and socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with suicide risk. In this 40-year mortality follow-up of a national cohort of US men, we examined if improved SES relative to one's family of origin, upward intergenerational social mobility (ISM), is associated with lowered risk for firearm suicide and suicide by other means in US men. Family of origin SES was assessed as part of Project Talent, a broad survey of US high school students in 1960. 42,766 men in the cohort completed follow-up surveys at age 29, assessing attained SES via education, occupation, and income. ISM was measured by change between harmonized SES composites. Mortality follow-up was conducted through age 70. Adjusting for baseline SES and race/ethnicity, a 1 standard deviation increase in SES was associated with a 31% reduction in firearm suicide risk later in the life course (HR [95% CI] = 0·69 [0·54, 0·88], P = 0·003), and a smaller, non-significant reduction in suicide by other means (HR [95% CI] = 0·80 [0·60, 1·07], P = 0·136). Traits associated with both suicide and SES attainment (cognitive ability, calm, impulsivity) only modestly attenuated this association. Upward ISM was more strongly associated with reduced firearm suicide risk in males with parents of low SES. The association between upward ISM and reduced firearm suicide mortality risk prevailed over ensuing decades. Policies improving social mobility in US males, particularly those of lower SES, may function as de-facto firearm suicide prevention strategies.