The continuum-of-addiction: cigarette smoking in relation to price among Americans aged 15-29

Evaluating trends in cigarette and HTP use in Japan and measurement issues in the National Health and Nutrition Survey

INTRODUTION

Studies have reported that the rapid rise in heated tobacco product (HTP) sales in Japan accompanied an accelerated decline in cigarette sales. However, these studies do not distinguish whether those who previously smoked cigarettes became dual users with HTPs (smoking fewer cigarettes) or instead switched completely to HTPs. If HTPs present lower health risks than cigarettes, replacing cigarettes with HTPs is more likely to improve public health than cigarette users continuing as dual users.

METHODS

To evaluate the role of HTP introduction relative to smoking prevalence, we examine trends in cigarette prevalence as related to trends in HTP use using Japan's National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHNS) from 2011 to 2019. We develop measures of relative changes in smoking prevalence use by age and gender in the pre-HTP and post-HTP periods. We then analyse prevalence data by year using joinpoint regression to statistically distinguish changes in trend.

RESULTS

Compared with the pre-HTP 2011-2014 period, cigarette prevalence decreased more rapidly during the post-HTP 2014-2017 period, particularly among younger age groups. However, the changing format of NHNS questions limits our ability to determine the impact on smoking prevalence, particularly after 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

While suggesting that HTPs helped some people who smoke to quit smoking, this study also shows the difficulties in eliciting accurate survey responses about product use and distinguishing the impact of a potentially harm-reducing product in an environment subject to rapidly evolving patterns of use.

Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities

Introduction

This study quantifies the impacts of strengthening 2 tobacco control policies in "Tobacco Nation," a region of the United States (U.S.) with persistently higher smoking rates and weaker tobacco control policies than the rest of the US, despite high levels of support for tobacco control policies.

Methods

We used a microsimulation model, ModelHealthTM:Tobacco, to project smoking-attributable (SA) outcomes in Tobacco Nation states and the U.S. from 2022 to 2041 under 2 scenarios: (1) no policy change and (2) a simultaneous increase in cigarette taxes by $1.50 and in tobacco control expenditures to the CDC-recommended level for each state. The simulation uses state-specific data to simulate changes in cigarette smoking as individuals age and the health and economic consequences of current or former smoking. We simulated 500 000 individuals for each Tobacco Nation state and the U.S. overall, representative of each population.

Results

Over the next 20 years, without policy changes, disparities in cigarette smoking will persist between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. However, compared to a scenario with no policy change, the simulated policies would lead to a 3.5% greater reduction in adult smoking prevalence, 2361 fewer SA deaths per million persons, and $334M saved in healthcare expenditures per million persons in Tobacco Nation. State-level findings demonstrate similar impacts.

Conclusions

The simulations indicate that the simulated policies could substantially reduce cigarette smoking disparities between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. These findings can inform tobacco control advocacy and policy efforts to advance policies that align with evidence and Tobacco Nation residents' wishes.

The Economics of Tobacco Regulation: A Comprehensive Review

Tobacco regulation has been a major component of health policy in the developed world since the UK Royal College of Physicians' and the US Surgeon General's reports in the 1960s. Such regulation, which has intensified in the past two decades, includes cigarette taxation, place-based smoking bans in areas ranging from bars and restaurants to workplaces, and regulations designed to make tobacco products less desirable. More recently, the availability of alternative products, most notably e-cigarettes, has increased dramatically, and these products are just starting to be regulated. Despite an extensive body of research on tobacco regulations, there remains substantial debate regarding their effectiveness, and ultimately, their impact on economic welfare. We provide the first comprehensive review of the state of research in the economics of tobacco regulation in two decades.

Regional Effects of Perceived Risks of Harm on Cigarette Smoking among U.S. High School Seniors: Evidence from Monitoring the Future

Overall, there has been an increasing trend in the perceived risk of harm from smoking among U.S. high school seniors. However, these perceptions of risk have been falling in recent years. This study uses regional-level panel data from the Monitoring the Future survey and a fixed effects model to estimate the effect of perceived risk on three regional measurements of smoking behavior: consumption, lifetime prevalence, and daily smoking prevalence. Elasticity measurements at regional levels show that an increase in perceived risk decreases these regional measurements of smoking behavior. Moreover, the results show that, at regional levels, these measurements of smoking behavior are more responsive to changes in the perceived risk associated with smoking than to changes in the price of cigarettes.

Taxation reduces smoking but may not reduce smoking disparities in youth

OBJECTIVE

This study examines the extent to which cigarette taxes affect smoking behaviour and disparities in smoking among adolescents by gender, socioeconomic status (SES) and race/ethnicity.

METHODS

We used US nationally representative, repeated cross-sectional data from the 2005 to 2016 Monitoring the Future study to evaluate the relationship between state cigarette taxes and past 30-day current smoking, smoking intensity, and first cigarette and daily smoking initiation using modified Poisson and linear regression models, stratified by grade. We tested for interactions between tax and gender, SES and race/ethnicity on the additive scale using average marginal effects.

RESULTS

We found that higher taxes were associated with lower smoking outcomes, with variation by grade. Across nearly all of our specifications, there were no statistically significant interactions between tax and gender, SES or race/ethnicity for any grades/outcomes. One exception is that among 12th graders, there was a statistically significant interaction between tax and college plans, with taxes being associated with a lower probability of 30-day smoking among students who definitely planned to attend college compared with those who did not.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that higher taxes were associated with reduced smoking among adolescents, with little difference by gender, SES and racial/ethnicity groups. While effective at reducing adolescent smoking, taxes appear unlikely to reduce smoking disparities among youth.

Effects of cigarette price increase on fresh food expenditures of low-income South Korean households that spend relatively more on cigarettes

On January 1, 2015, the cigarette tax in South Korea increased sharply. In this study, we analyzed how the fresh food expenditures of low-income smoking households that spend relatively more on cigarettes changed between 2014 and 2015 compared to their demographically comparable non-smoking counterparts. We conducted the analysis using a difference-in-differences analysis from which we derived expenditure differences between smoking households and non-smoking households and then examined whether the differences increased from 2014 to 2015. In deriving the differences, we utilized the nearest-matching method to ensure that, besides smoking status, the socio-demographics of the two groups were matched. We used data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of South Korea. The analysis showed that smoking households spent less on fruits and vegetables than non-smoking households and that this difference increased after the tax increase. The change was more remarkable in the poorest households that spent relatively more on cigarettes. This suggests that cigarette expenditures have a crowding out effect on fresh food expenditures for smoking households, with a significantly larger effect for households in the poorest group that spend more on cigarettes.

Could a tax on unhealthy products sold for weight loss reduce consumer use? A novel estimation of potential taxation effects

Abuse of widely available, over-the-counter (OTC) drugs and supplements such as diet pills, laxatives, and diuretics by adolescents for weight control is well-documented, yet manufacturers and retailers can sell them to minors without restriction. The aim of our study was to estimate the effect of added taxation of OTC drugs and dietary supplements sold for weight loss on household purchases of these products. With data from 60,538 U.S. households in the 2012 waves of the Nielsen/IRi National Consumer Panel (NCP) and the Nielsen/IRi Retail Scanner (NRS) datasets, we conducted analyses in 2017 to tally annual quantities and expenditures on OTC drugs or dietary supplements making weight-loss, cleanse/detox, or diuretic claims. We estimated the percent reduction in household purchases due to a simulated 20% added tax on each category. Among the 14,151 households reporting at least one purchase in the three claims categories, a 20% higher average price of weight-loss products was associated with a 5.2% lower purchases of those products. Among households with children ages 12 to 17 years old present, purchases were 17.5% lower, and among households with a daughter present, purchases were 10.3% lower. Taxation may be an effective public health strategy to reduce purchasing of potentially dangerous OTC drugs and supplements sold for weight loss, especially for households that include children ages 12-17 years old or a daughter.

Parent Refusal of Topical Fluoride for Their Children: Clinical Strategies and Future Research Priorities to Improve Evidence-Based Pediatric Dental Practice

A growing number of parents are refusing topical fluoride for their children during preventive dental and medical visits. This nascent clinical and public health problem warrants attention from dental professionals and the scientific community. Clinical and community-based strategies are available to improve fluoride-related communications with parents and the public. In terms of future research priorities, there is a need to develop screening tools to identify parents who are likely to refuse topical fluoride and diagnostic instruments to uncover the reasons for topical fluoride refusal. This knowledge will lead to evidence-based strategies that can be widely disseminated into clinical practice.

Implications of Misclassification Errors in Empirical Studies of Adolescent Smoking Behaviours

Misclassification errors in a dependent variable can introduce attenuation bias to covariate effects in a binary choice model. Misreporting of smoking behaviours by adolescents has been widely documented. However, the consequence in empirical studies of adolescent smoking participation has received little attention. This study uses the Health Survey for England (HSE) to investigate the extent and implication of misclassification errors in self-reported smoking among adolescents aged 11-15 years. The HSE contains both a self-reported smoking component and an objective measure of smoking obtained from saliva cotinine assays. Saliva cotinine concentration ≥12 ng/ml is considered the 'true' indicator of adolescent smoking participation against which self-reported smoking is compared. The findings show that smoking is misreported in this age group, resulting in a downwards bias of marginal effect estimates. Given the widespread use of self-reported smoking data, this study explores the performance of the Hausman, Abrevaya and Scott-Morton-modified maximum likelihood estimation (HAS approach) in recovering true estimates of covariate effects. In this context, the HAS approach performs better when the misclassification probabilities are treated as constants compared with when they are treated as conditionally dependent parameters. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of plain packaging, warning labels, and taxes on young people's predicted sugar-sweetened beverage preferences: an experimental study

BACKGROUND

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with increased risk of obesity, diabetes, heart disease and dental caries. Our aim was to assess the effects of plain packaging, warning labels, and a 20 % tax on predicted SSB preferences, beliefs and purchase probabilities amongst young people.

METHODS

A 2 × 3 × 2 between-group experimental study was conducted over a one-week period in August 2014. Intervention scenarios were delivered, and outcome data collected, via an anonymous online survey. Participants were 604 New Zealand young people aged 13-24 years who consumed soft drinks regularly. Participants were randomly allocated using a computer-generated algorithm to view one of 12 experimental conditions, specifically images of branded versus plain packaged SSBs, with either no warning, a text warning, or a graphic warning, and with or without a 20 % tax. Participant perceptions of the allocated SSB product and of those who might consume the product were measured using seven-point Likert scales. Purchase probabilities were measured using 11-point Juster scales.

RESULTS

Six hundred and four young people completed the survey (51 % female, mean age 18 (SD 3.4) years). All three intervention scenarios had a significant negative effect on preferences for SSBs (plain packaging: F (6, 587) = 54.4, p <0.001; warning label: F (6, 588) = 19.8, p <0.001; 20 % tax: F (6, 587) = 11.3, p <0.001). Plain packaging and warning labels also had a significant negative impact on reported likelihood of purchasing SSB's (p = <0.001). A 20 % tax reduced participants' purchase probability but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Plain packaging and warning labels significantly reduce young people's predicted preferences for, and reported probability of purchasing, SSBs.

Why Changes in Price Matter When Thinking About Marijuana Policy: A Review of the Literature on the Elasticity of Demand

Recent debates regarding liberalization of marijuana policies often rest on assumptions regarding the extent to which such policy changes would lead to a change in marijuana consumption and by whom. This paper reviews the economics literature assessing the responsiveness of consumption to changes in price and enforcement risk and explicitly considers how this responsiveness varies by different user groups. In doing so, it demonstrates how most of the research has examined responsiveness to prevalence of use, which is a composite of different user groups, rather than level of consumption among regular or heavy users, which represent the largest share of total quantities consumed. Thus, it is not possible to generate reliable estimates of the impact of liberalizing policies on either tax revenues or harms, as these outcomes are most directly influenced by the amounts consumed by regular or heavy users, not prevalence rates.

Smoking initiation and the iron law of demand

We show, with three longitudinal datasets, that cigarette taxes and prices affect smoking initiation decisions. Evidence from longitudinal studies is mixed but generally find that initiation does not vary with price or tax. We show that the lack of statistical significance partly results because of limited policy variation in the time periods studied, truncated behavioral windows, or mis-assignment of price and tax rates in retrospective data (which occurs when one has no information about respondents' prior state or region of residence). Our findings highlight issues relevant to initiation behavior generally, particularly those for which individuals' responses to policy changes may be noisy or small in magnitude.

Smoking among construction workers: the nonlinear influence of the economy, cigarette prices, and antismoking sentiment

Little research has been conducted on the influence of macroeconomic environments on smoking among blue-collar workers, a group with high smoking prevalence and that is especially vulnerable to the effects of changing economic circumstances. Using data from 52,418 construction workers in the Tobacco Use Supplement to the United States Current Population Survey, we examined the association of labor market shock, cigarette prices, and state antismoking sentiments with smoking status and average number of cigarettes smoked daily. Data analysis included the use of multiple linear and logistic regressions, which employed the sampling and replicate weights to account for sampling design. Unemployed, American-Indian, lower-educated and lower-income workers had higher smoking rates. Labor market shock had a quadratic association, which was non-significant for smoking status and significant for number of cigarettes. The association of cigarette prices with smoking status became non-significant after adjusting for state-level antismoking sentiment. State-level antismoking sentiment had significant quadratic association with smoking status among employed workers and significant quadratic association with number of cigarettes for all smokers. The study highlights how both workplace-based smoking cessation interventions and antismoking sentiments could further contribute to disparities in smoking by employment status.

Effects of tobacco taxation and pricing on smoking behavior in high risk populations: a knowledge synthesis

Tobacco taxation is an essential component of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy. However, to fully realize the benefits it is vital to understand the impact of increased taxes among high-risk subpopulations. Are they influenced to the same extent as the general population? Do they need additional measures to influence smoking behavior? The objectives of this study were to synthesize the evidence regarding differential effects of taxation and price on smoking in: youth, young adults, persons of low socio-economic status, with dual diagnoses, heavy/long-term smokers, and Aboriginal people. Using a better practices approach, a knowledge synthesis was conducted using a systematic review of the literature and an expert advisory panel. Experts were involved in developing the study plan, discussing findings, developing policy recommendations, and identifying priorities for future research. Most studies found that raising cigarette prices through increased taxes is a highly effective measure for reducing smoking among youth, young adults, and persons of low socioeconomic status. However, there is a striking lack of evidence about the impact of increasing cigarette prices on smoking behavior in heavy/long-term smokers, persons with a dual diagnosis and Aboriginals. Given their high prevalence of smoking, urgent attention is needed to develop effective policies for the six subpopulations reviewed. These findings will be of value to policy-makers and researchers in their efforts to improve the effectiveness of tobacco control measures, especially with subpopulations at most risk. Although specific studies are needed, tobacco taxation is a key policy measure for driving success.

Cigarette taxes and smoking participation: evidence from recent tax increases in Canada

Using the Canadian National Population Health Survey and the recent tax variation across Canadian provinces, this paper examines the impact of cigarette taxes on smoking participation. Consistent with the literature, we find evidence of a heterogeneous response to cigarette taxes among different groups of smokers. Contrary to most studies, we find that the middle age group—which constitutes the largest fraction of smokers in our sample—is largely unresponsive to taxes. While cigarette taxes remain popular with policy makers as an anti-smoking measure, identifying the socio-demographic characteristics of smokers who respond differentially to tax increase will help in designing appropriate supplementary measures to reduce smoking.

Smoking initiation among youth: the role of cigarette excise taxes and prices by race/ethnicity and gender

Existing evidence for the role of cigarette excise taxes and prices as significant determinants of youth smoking initiation is mixed. A few studies have considered the possibility that the impact of cigarette taxes and prices might differ by gender or race/ethnicity. In this paper, we address the role of cigarette taxes and prices on youth smoking initiation using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort and discrete-time survival methods. We present results overall and by gender, race/ethnicity, and gender by race/ethnicity. We examine initiation over the age range during which youth are most at risk of initiation and over a period in which substantial changes have occurred in tax and price. The result for cigarette excise taxes is small and mixed across alternative specifications, with the effect strongest for black youth. Cigarette prices are more consistently a significant determinant of youth smoking initiation, especially for black youth.

Estimating the impacts of cigarette taxes on youth smoking participation, initiation, and persistence: empirical evidence from Canada

In response to the widespread availability of illegal contraband, the federal and five provincial governments in Canada implemented a 40-60% reduction to cigarette excise taxes in February 1994. We exploit this unique and discrete policy shock by estimating the effects of cigarette taxes on youth smoking with data from the 1992-1996 Waterloo Smoking Prevention Program, 1991 General Social Survey, 1994 Youth Smoking Survey, 1996-1997 and 1998-1999 National population Health Surveys, and the 1999 Canadian Tobacco Use Monitoring Survey. Empirical estimates yield daily and occasional participation elasticities from -0.10 to -0.14, which is consistent with findings from recent U.S.-based research. A key contribution of this research is in the analysis of lower taxes on a panel of 591 youths from the Waterloo Smoking Prevention Program, who did not smoke in 1993, but 43% of whom confirm smoking participation following the tax reduction. Employing these data reveals elasticities from -0.2 to -0.5, which suggest that even significant and discrete changes in taxes might have limited impacts on the initiation and persistence of youth smoking.

Economic theory and evidence on smoking behavior of adults

AIMS

To describe: (i) three alternative conceptual frameworks used by economists to study addictive behaviors: rational, imperfectly rational and irrational addiction; (ii) empirical economic evidence on each framework and specific channels to explain adult smoking matched to the frameworks; and (iii) policy implications for each framework.

METHODS

A systematic review and appraisal of important theoretical and empirical economic studies on smoking.

RESULTS

There is some empirical support for each framework. For rational and imperfectly rational addiction there is some evidence that anticipated future cigarette prices influence current cigarette consumption, and quitting costs are high for smokers. Smokers are more risk-tolerant in the financial domain than are others and tend to attach a lower value to being in good health. Findings on differences in rates of time preference by smoking status are mixed; however, short-term rates are higher than long-term rates for both smokers and non-smokers, a stylized fact consistent with hyperbolic discounting. The economic literature lends no empirical support to the view that mature adults smoke because they underestimate the probability of harm to health from smoking. In support of the irrationality framework, smokers tend to be more impulsive than others in domains not related directly to smoking, implying that they may be sensitive to cues that trigger smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Much promising economic research uses the imperfectly rational addiction framework, but empirical research based on this framework is still in its infancy.

Price effects on the smoking behaviour of adult age groups

OBJECTIVES

To provide a cigarette price elasticity reference for adult age groups, and to estimate the smoking behaviour changes in US adults in light of unprecedented state excise tax increases on cigarettes during the 1990s.

STUDY DESIGN

Individual-level data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System for 1993-2000 were merged with state-level cigarette price and tax data.

METHODS

Data were analysed for different age groups using a weighted least squares regression framework. The outcome variables measured were whether an individual was a smoker, whether he/she had tried to quit smoking during the previous year, and how many cigarettes were smoked per day among the total population and among active smokers.

RESULTS

This study confirmed previous results that younger individuals are more responsive to price changes than older individuals. Although older age groups are less sensitive to price changes, their smoking behaviour changes are still statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that while older individuals are less responsive to price changes than younger individuals, their behavioural changes due to cigarette price increases should not be ignored.

Youth smoking, cigarette prices, and anti-smoking sentiment

In this paper, we develop a new direct measure of state anti-smoking sentiment and merge it with micro-data on youth smoking in 1992 and 2000. The empirical results from the cross-sectional models show two consistent patterns: after controlling for differences in state anti-smoking sentiment, the price of cigarettes has a weak and statistically, insignificant influence on smoking participation, and state anti-smoking sentiment appears to have a potentially important influence on youth smoking participation. The cross-sectional results are corroborated by results from the discrete time hazard models of smoking initiation that include state-fixed effects. However, there is evidence of price-responsiveness in the conditional cigarette demand by youth and young adult smokers.

Asymmetric peer effects in the analysis of cigarette smoking among young people in the United States, 1992-1999

We extend the recent literature on peer effects to test the possible role of asymmetric social influences in the determination of youth smoking. We analyzed cigarette smoking among people aged 15-24 in approximately 90,000 households in the 1992-1999 U.S. Current Population Surveys. The presence of additional smoking sibling in a household, we estimated, raised a young person's probability of smoking by 7.6%, while each non-smoking sibling lowered the probability by an estimated 3.5%. Moreover, the overall deterrent effect of an increase in cigarette price on the probability of smoking was approximately 60% greater than the estimated effect when peer influences were held constant. The concept of asymmetric social influence may have applications in other fields, including labor economics, education, crime prevention, and group dynamics.

Raising taxes to reduce smoking prevalence in the US: a simulation of the anticipated health and economic impacts

OBJECTIVE

To estimate health and economic outcomes of raising the excise taxes on cigarettes.

METHODS

We use a dynamic computer simulation model to estimate health and economic impacts of raising taxes on cigarettes (up to 100% price increase) for the entire population of the USA over 20 years. We also perform sensitivity analysis on price elasticity.

RESULTS

A 40% tax-induced cigarette price increase would reduce smoking prevalence from 21% in 2004 to 15.2% in 2025 with large gains in cumulative life years (7 million) and quality adjusted life years (13 million) over 20 years. Total tax revenue will increase by $365 billion in that span, and total smoking-related medical costs would drop by $317 billion, resulting in total savings of $682 billion. These benefits increase greatly with larger tax increases, and tax revenues continue to rise even as smoking prevalence falls.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing taxes on cigarettes is a unique policy intervention that reduces smoking prevalence, generates additional tax revenue, and results in significant savings in medical care costs.

Reducing the burden of smoking world-wide: effectiveness of interventions and their coverage

Cigarette smoking and other tobacco use imposes a huge and growing public health burden globally. Currently, approximately 5 million people are killed annually by tobacco use; by 2030, estimates based on current trends indicate that this number will increase to 10 million, with 70% of deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Numerous studies from high-income countries, and a growing number from low- and middle-income countries, provide strong evidence that tobacco tax increases, dissemination of information about health risks from smoking, restrictions on smoking in public places and in work-places, comprehensive bans on advertising and promotion and increased access to cessation therapies are all effective in reducing tobacco use and its consequences. Despite this evidence, tobacco control policies have been unevenly applied--due partly to political constraints. This paper provides a summary of these issues, beginning with an overview of trends in global tobacco use and its consequences and followed by a review of the evidence on the effectiveness of tobacco control policies in reducing tobacco use. A description of the types and comprehensiveness of policies currently in place and a discussion of some of the factors correlated with the strength and comprehensive of these policies follows.

Limiting youth access to tobacco: comparing the long-term health impacts of increasing cigarette excise taxes and raising the legal smoking age to 21 in the United States

Although many states in the US have raised cigarette excise taxes in recent years, the size of these increases have been fairly modest (resulting in a 15% increase in the per pack purchase price), and their impact on adult smoking prevalence is likely insufficient to meet Healthy People 2010 objectives. This paper presents the results of a 75-year dynamic simulation model comparing the long-term health benefits to society of various levels of tax increase to a viable alternative: limiting youth access to cigarettes by raising the legal purchase age to 21. If youth smoking initiation is delayed as assumed in the model, increasing the smoking age would have a minimal immediate effect on adult smoking prevalence and population health, but would affect a large drop in youth smoking prevalence from 22% to under 9% for the 15-17-year-old age group in 7 years (by 2010)-better than the result of raising taxes to increase the purchase price of cigarettes by 100%. Reducing youth initiation by enforcing a higher smoking age would reduce adult smoking prevalence in the long-term (75 years in the future) to 13.6% (comparable to a 40% tax-induced price increase), and would produce a cumulative gain of 109 million QALYs (comparable to a 20% price increase). If the political climate continues to favor only moderate cigarette excise tax increases, raising the smoking age should be considered to reduce the health burden of smoking on society. The health benefits of large tax increases, however, would be greater and would accrue faster than raising the minimum legal purchase age for cigarettes.

The importance of peer effects, cigarette prices and tobacco control policies for youth smoking behavior

This paper expands the youth cigarette demand literature by undertaking an examination of the determinants of smoking among high school students incorporating the importance of peer effects and allowing cigarette prices (taxes) and tobacco control policies to have a direct effect and an indirect effect (via the peer effect) on smoking behavior. To control for the potential endogeneity of our school-based peer measure we implement a two-stage generalized least squares estimator for a dichotomous dependent variable and implement a series of diagnostic tests. The key finding is that peer effects play a significant role in youth smoking decisions: moving a high-school student from a school where no children smoke to a school where one quarter of the youths smoke is found to increase the probability that the youth smokes by about 14.5 percentage points. The results suggest that there is a potential for social multiplier effects with respect to any exogenous change in cigarette taxes or tobacco control policies.

Increasing excise taxes on cigarettes in California: a dynamic simulation of health and economic impacts

BACKGROUND

California raised cigarette excise taxes in 1999, and may generate additional health and economic benefits by raising them further.

METHODS

A dynamic computer simulation model follows births, deaths, migration, aging, and changes in smoking status for the entire population of California over 75 years to estimate the cumulative health and economic outcomes of these changes under several excise tax rate conditions (up to 100% price increase).

RESULTS

A 20% tax-induced cigarette price increase would reduce smoking prevalence from 17% to 11.6% with large gains in cumulative life years (14 million) and QALY's (16 million) over 75 years. Total spending on cigarettes by consumers would increase by 270 million dollars in that span (all going to tax revenue), and those who reduce the number of years spent as a smoker would spend 12.5 billion dollars less on cigarettes. Total smoking-related medical costs would drop by 188 billion dollars. These benefits increase greatly with larger tax increases, with which tax revenues continue to rise even as smoking prevalence falls.

CONCLUSIONS

Even considering benefits from the 1999 increase, California has not yet maximized the potential of excise taxes to lessen the negative impacts of smoking. Additional tax increases would provide added health benefits and revenue to the state.

The early 1990s cigarette price decrease and trends in youth smoking in Ontario

BACKGROUND

Youth are especially vulnerable to fluctuations in cigarette price, and both the smuggling increase during the early 1990s and the 1994 tax decrease made purchasing easier for youth. The purpose of this study is to examine the relation between these price decreases, and trends in smoking prevalence and amount smoked among Ontario youth.

METHODS

Data from the Ontario Student Drug Use Survey were analyzed for trend using: 1) polynomial regression, and 2) discontinuity regression with an "event time" of 1993 to capture effects of both pre-tax cut smuggling and the tax cut.

RESULTS

Overall, smoking prevalence decreased from 1977 to 1993, jumped upward at this time, and decreased after 1993. Among daily smokers, mean number of cigarettes smoked daily showed an increase followed by a decrease over the 24 years, and a negative quadratic trend. Trends for subgroups are also reported.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that the early 1990s cigarette price decrease may have played a role in increasing youth smoking in Ontario.