Taxation of unprocessed sugar or sugar-added foods for reducing their consumption and preventing obesity or other adverse health outcomes

U.S. food policy to address diet-related chronic disease

Poor diet is the leading cause of mortality in the U.S. due to the direct relationship with diet-related chronic diseases, disproportionally affects underserved communities, and exacerbates health disparities. Evidence-based policy solutions are greatly needed to foster an equitable and climate-smart food system that improves health, nutrition and reduces chronic disease healthcare costs. To directly address epidemic levels of U.S. diet-related chronic diseases and nutritional health disparities, we conducted a policy analysis, prioritized policy options and implementation strategies, and issued final recommendations for bipartisan consideration in the 2023-24 Farm Bill Reauthorization. Actional recommendations include: sugar-sweetened beverage taxation, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) fruit and vegetable subsidy expansion, replacement of ultra-processed foods (UPF) with sustainable, diverse, climate-smart agriculture and food purchasing options, and implementing "food is medicine."

The relationship between the price and demand of alcohol, tobacco, unhealthy food, sugar-sweetened beverages, and gambling: an umbrella review of systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

The WHO highlight alcohol, tobacco, unhealthy food, and sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes as one of the most effective policies for preventing and reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases. This umbrella review aimed to identify and summarise evidence from systematic reviews that report the relationship between price and demand or price and disease/death for alcohol, tobacco, unhealthy food, and SSBs. Given the recent recognition as gambling as a public health problem, we also included gambling.

METHODS

The protocol for this umbrella review was pre-registered (PROSPERO CRD42023447429). Seven electronic databases were searched between 2000-2023. Eligible systematic reviews were those published in any country, including adults or children, and which quantitatively examined the relationship between alcohol, tobacco, gambling, unhealthy food, or SSB price/tax and demand (sales/consumption) or disease/death. Two researchers undertook screening, eligibility, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment using the ROBIS tool.

RESULTS

We identified 50 reviews from 5,185 records, of which 31 reported on unhealthy food or SSBs, nine reported on tobacco, nine on alcohol, and one on multiple outcomes (alcohol, tobacco, unhealthy food, and SSBs). We did not identify any reviews on gambling. Higher prices were consistently associated with lower demand, notwithstanding variation in the size of effect across commodities or populations. Reductions in demand were large enough to be considered meaningful for policy.

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in the price of alcohol, tobacco, unhealthy food, and SSBs are consistently associated with decreases in demand. Moreover, increasing taxes can be expected to increase tax revenue. There may be potential in joining up approaches to taxation across the harm-causing commodities.

Estimating the potential impact of a health tax on the demand for unhealthy food and beverages and on tax revenue in India

Foods high in fat, sugar or salt are important contributors to the rising burden of non-communicable diseases globally and in India. Health taxes (HTs) have been used by over 70 countries as an effective tool for reducing consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). However, the potential impacts of HTs on consumption and on revenues have not been estimated in India. This paper aims to estimate the potential impact of health taxes on the demand for sugar, SSBs and foods high in fat, sugar or salt (HFSS) in India while exploring its impact on tax revenues. PE of sugar was estimated using Private Final Consumption Expenditure and Consumer Price Index data while price elasticities for SSBs and HFSS were obtained from literature. The reduction in demand was estimated for an additional 10-30% HT added to the current goods and services tax, for varying levels of price elasticities. The results show that for manufacturers of sweets and confectionaries who buy sugar in bulk and assuming a higher price elasticity of -0.70, 20% additional HT (total tax 48%) would result in 13-18% decrease in the demand for sugar used for confectionaries and sweets. For SSBs, HT of 10-30% would result in 7-30% decline in the demand of SSBs. For HFSS food products, 10-30% HT would result in 5-24% decline in the demand for HFSS products. These additional taxes would increase tax revenues for the government by 12-200% across different scenarios. Taxing unhealthy foods is likely to reduce demand, while increasing government revenues for reinvestment back into public health programmes and policies that may reduce obesity and the incidence of non-communicable diseases in India.

Considerations for modelling a broad food tax in the Philippines and other low-income and middle-income countries

Fiscal policies to improve diet are a promising strategy to address the increasing burden of non-communicable disease, the leading cause of death globally. Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes are the most implemented type of fiscal policy to improve diet. Yet taxes on food, if appropriately structured and applied across the food supply, may support a larger population-level shift towards a healthier diet. Designing these policies and guiding them through the legislative process requires evidence. Equity-oriented cost-effectiveness analyses that estimate the distribution of potential health and economic gains can provide this critical evidence. Taxes on less healthy foods are rarely modelled in low-income and middle-income countries.We describe considerations for modelling the effect of a food tax, which can provide guidance for food tax policy design. This includes describing issues related to the availability, reliability and level of detail of national data on dietary habits, the nutrient content of foods and food prices; the structure of the nutrient profile model; type of tax; tax rate; pass-through rate and price elasticity. Using the Philippines as an example, we discuss considerations for using existing data to model the potential effect of a tax, while also taking into account the political and food policy context. In this way, we provide a modelling framework that can help guide policy-makers and advocates in designing a food policy to improve the health and well-being of future generations in the Philippines and elsewhere.

An umbrella review of the acceptability of fiscal and pricing policies to reduce diet-related noncommunicable disease

CONTEXT

Poor diet has been implicated in a range of noncommunicable diseases. Fiscal and pricing policies (FPs) may offer a means by which consumption of food and non-alcoholic beverages with links to such diseases can be influenced to improve public health.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the acceptability of FPs to reduce diet-related noncommunicable disease, based on systematic review evidence.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychInfo, SCI, SSCI, Web of Science, Scopus, EconLit, the Cochrane Library, Epistemonikos, and the Campbell Collaboration Library were searched for relevant studies published between January 1, 1990 and June 2021.

DATA EXTRACTION

The studies included systematic reviews of diet-related FPs and: used real-world evidence; examined real or perceived barriers/facilitators; targeted the price of food or non-alcoholic beverages; and applied to entire populations within a jurisdiction. A total of 9996 unique relevant records were identified, which were augmented by a search of bibliographies and recommendations from an external expert advisory panel. Following screening, 4 systematic reviews remained.

DATA ANALYSIS

Quality appraisal was conducted using the AMSTAR 2 tool. A narrative synthesis was undertaken, with outcomes grouped according to the WHO-INTEGRATE criteria. The findings indicated a paucity of high-quality systematic review evidence and limited public support for the use of FPs to change dietary habits. This lack of support was related to a number of factors that included: their perceived potential to be regressive; a lack of transparency, ie, there was mistrust around the use of revenues raised; a paucity of evidence around health benefits; the deliberate choice of rates that were lower than those considered necessary to affect diet; and concerns about the potential of such FPs to harm economic outcomes such as employment.

CONCLUSION

The findings underscore the need for high-quality systematic review evidence on this topic, and the importance of responding to public concerns and putting in place mechanisms to address these when implementing FPs. This study was funded by Safefood [02A-2020].

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration no. CRD42021274454.

An umbrella review of the effectiveness of fiscal and pricing policies on food and non-alcoholic beverages to improve health

Poor quality diets represent major risk factors for the global burden of disease. Modeling studies indicate a potential for diet-related fiscal and pricing policies (FPs) to improve health. There is real-world evidence (RWE) that such policies can change behavior; however, the evidence regarding health is less clear. We conducted an umbrella review of the effectiveness of FPs on food and non-alcoholic beverages in influencing health or intermediate outcomes like consumption. We considered FPs applied to an entire population within a jurisdiction and included four systematic reviews in our final sample. Quality appraisal, an examination of excluded reviews, and a literature review of recent primary studies assessed the robustness of our results. Taxes and, to some extent, subsidies are effective in changing consumption of taxed/subsidized items; however, substitution is likely to occur. There is a lack of RWE supporting the effectiveness of FPs in improving health but this does not mean that they are ineffective. FPs may be important for improving health but their design is critical. Poorly designed FPs may fail to improve health and could reduce support for such policies or be used to support their repeal. More high-quality RWE on the impact of FPs on health is needed.

Assessing the impact of Hungary's public health product tax: an interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

Imposing taxes on unhealthy goods can generate income, raise people's health awareness, and eventually decrease the prevalence of chronic diseases. Our aim was to assess the impact of Hungary's public health product tax (PHPT) since its implementation in September 2011. Differences in purchasing habits between households with different income statuses were also compared.

METHODS

A retrospective, descriptive analysis of tax bases and income was carried out, and an interrupted time series analysis using the generalised least squares method was performed to examine the changes in trends regarding the purchase of taxable products before and after the implementation of the tax. The amount of tax base (in kilograms or litres), income (in HUF and EUR), and annual purchased quantity of food and beverage groups per household were assessed. Data were derived from the National Tax and Customs Administration of Hungary and the Hungarian Household Budget and Living Conditions Surveys. The study sample was composed of households who participated in the surveys (mean = 8,359, SD = 1,146) between 2006 and 2018.

RESULTS

The households' tax bases and incomes increased constantly (with a few exceptions). The total revenue was 19.49 billion HUF (67.37 million EUR) in 2012 and 59.19 billion HUF (168.55 million EUR) in 2020. However, the households' purchasing habits did not change as expected. A significant short-term decrease (between 2012 and 2013) in purchasing unhealthy goods was observed for three groups: soft drinks (p = 0.009), jams (p = 0.047), and fruit juices (p = 0.038). Only soft drinks showed a significant decreasing trend in the post-intervention period between 2012 and 2018 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We concluded that the PHPT did not decrease households' unhealthy food purchasing trend, although it has a positive effect as it can create revenue for health care and health-promoting programmes.

Infrastructure, policy and regulatory interventions to increase physical activity to prevent cardiovascular diseases and diabetes: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Noncommunicable diseases are major contributors to morbidity and mortality worldwide. Modifying the risk factors for these conditions, such as physical inactivity, is thus essential. Addressing the context or circumstances in which physical activity occurs may promote physical activity at a population level. We assessed the effects of infrastructure, policy or regulatory interventions for increasing physical activity.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase and clinicaltrials.gov to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled before-after (CBAs) studies, and interrupted time series (ITS) studies assessing population-level infrastructure or policy and regulatory interventions to increase physical activity. We were interested in the effects of these interventions on physical activity, body weight and related measures, blood pressure, and CVD and type 2 diabetes morbidity and mortality, and on other secondary outcomes. Screening and data extraction was done in duplicate, with risk of bias was using an adapted Cochrane risk of bias tool. Due to high levels of heterogeneity, we synthesised the evidence based on effect direction.

RESULTS

We included 33 studies, mostly conducted in high-income countries. Of these, 13 assessed infrastructure changes to green or other spaces to promote physical activity and 18 infrastructure changes to promote active transport. The effects of identified interventions on physical activity, body weight and blood pressure varied across studies (very low certainty evidence); thus, we remain very uncertain about the effects of these interventions. Two studies assessed the effects of policy and regulatory interventions; one provided free access to physical activity facilities and showed that it may have beneficial effects on physical activity (low certainty evidence). The other provided free bus travel for youth, with intervention effects varying across studies (very low certainty evidence).

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence from 33 studies assessing infrastructure, policy and regulatory interventions for increasing physical activity showed varying results. The certainty of the evidence was mostly very low, due to study designs included and inconsistent findings between studies. Despite this drawback, the evidence indicates that providing access to physical activity facilities may be beneficial; however this finding is based on only one study. Implementation of these interventions requires full consideration of contextual factors, especially in low resource settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO 2018 CRD42018093429.

Systematic review on fiscal policy interventions in nutrition

Introduction

Both the World Health Organization and the Lancet Series on Adolescent nutrition recommend that governments adopt fiscal policies to combat diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). However, rigorous, systematic evidence regarding the effects of these interventions is lacking.

Methods

We synthesize the available evidence regarding the impacts of taxes and subsidies that directly affect consumer prices on availability and accessibility of foods and beverages, purchasing behavior, diet quality, health and well-being outcomes as well as considerations for implementation, sustainability and equity.

Results

Our initial search returned 2,113 de-duplicated studies, and ultimately 24 impact evaluations and two systematic reviews met final eligibility criteria and represented unique evaluations. Our meta-analysis of these studies suggests that taxes may decrease purchases of taxed beverages (SMD = -0.14 [95% CI: -0.29 to -0.07], n = 15). Results should be interpreted cautiously due to considerable heterogeneity (Q(14) = 335.19, p = 0.01,τ ^ 2 = 0.03 , I 2 = 95.82%).

Discussion

The evidence base is too limited to draw conclusions about the effects of taxes on beverages and calorie-dense foods on purchases, or on the effects of subsidies on purchasing or diet quality. Overall, the evidence base is inconclusive on whether fiscal policies can meaningfully influence the availability and accessibility of foods and beverages, diet quality, and health outcomes. Policymakers implementing fiscal policies should consider information campaigns on health benefits and health risks associated with certain food and beverage consumption. For taxes, exposure to health information may amplify signaling effects of taxes and reduce avoidance behaviors, such as cross-border shopping. Future evaluations should diversify data sources to better understand impacts on diet and health outcomes.

Modelling the health and economic impact of sugary sweetened beverage tax in Canada

Background

With the increasing concerns about the health and economic burden attributed to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption, SSB taxation has been proposed and implemented in many countries. Many previous economic evaluations of SSB taxation have shown that this kind of policy is cost-effective. However, the magnitude of impact varies. This study aims to design a comprehensive model to estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of the SSB tax in Canada.

Methods

A proportional multi-state life table-based Markov model was chosen to estimate the impacts of SSB tax in Canada. The health-related quality of life (including disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)), the costs (including health care costs and intervention costs), and the tax revenue were the main health and economic outcomes. We compared the simulated SSB tax with the current practice from the public health care payer perspective, and the tax was applied to the 2015 adult Canadian population up to 100 years. The economic model was built following guidelines from the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health.

Results

After implementing a CAD$0.015/oz SSB tax, 282,104 cases of overweight and obesity, 210,542 cases of diseases, and 2,189 deaths could be prevented. The simulated SSB tax has the potential to avert 2.3 million DALYs, gain 1.5 million QALYs, and save CAD$32,583 million in health care costs in a lifetime period. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the SSB tax was CAD$ -24,933/QALY. The SSB tax with different tax levels (CAD$0.01/oz and CAD$0.02/oz) remained cost-effective.

Conclusion

Implementing the SSB tax in Canada is a potential cost-effective policy option for reducing obesity and related chronic diseases. The model built in this study provides a more accurate estimate of health and economic impact of SSB tax and could be used to estimate other sugar tax options.

Access to Healthy Wheat and Maize Processed Foods in Mexico City: Comparisons across Socioeconomic Areas and Store Types

The contributions of processed foods to the overweight and obesity problem in Latin America are well known. Engagement with the private and public sectors on possible solutions requires deeper insights into where and how these products are sold and the related implications for diet quality. This article characterizes the diversity of wheat and maize processed foods (WMPFs) available to consumers in Mexico City. Data were gathered across nine product categories at different points of sale (supermarkets, small grocery stores, convenience stores) in high and low socioeconomic (SE) areas. We assessed WMPFs based on Nutri-Score profile, price, and health and nutrition claims. Roughly 17.4% of the WMPFs were considered healthy, of which 62.2% were pastas and breads. Availability of healthy WMPFs was scarce in most stores, particularly in convenience stores Compared to supermarkets in the low SE area, those in the high SE area exhibited greater variety in access to healthy WMPFs across all product categories. In the low SE area, healthy WMPFs were priced 16–69% lower than unhealthy WMPFs across product categories. The extensive variety of unhealthy WMPFs, the limited stock of healthy WMPFs in most retail outlets, and the confusing health and nutrition claims on packaging make it difficult for urban consumers to find and choose healthy WMPFs.

Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes in Brazil: past, present, and future

Increasing rates of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (obesity, type 2 diabetes, and dental caries) are positively associated with the consumption of added sugars, particularly in sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). Governments worldwide have implemented SSB taxes to reduce the consumption of sugars added to beverages to reduce the prevalence of NCDs. There is a tax on manufactured products, including SSBs in Brazil. However, in 2016 and 2018, the Brazilian federal government decreased the tax rate, bucking global trends. The SSB industry has criticised such policies, and current tax levels are too low to reduce consumption sufficiently to prevent harm. Research supports positive public health impact potential for a higher SSB tax in Brazil. Sharing experience among countries and complementary policies (nutrition education and front of pack labelling) could increase the positive impacts of an SSB tax. We describe the history of SSB taxes in Brazil and the rationale it provides for specific SSB taxes across the country.

Impact of Measures Aiming to Reduce Sugars Intake in the General Population and Their Implementation in Europe: A Scoping Review

Objectives: Implementing public health measures is necessary to decrease sugars intake, which is associated with increased risk of noncommunicable diseases. Our scoping review aimed to identify the types of measures implemented and evaluated to decrease sugars intake in the population and to assess their impact.

Methods: Following a review of systematic reviews (SRs) published in 2018, we systematically searched new SR (May 2017–October 2020) in electronic databases. We also searched the measures implemented in Europe in the NOURISHING database. Two researchers selected the reviews, extracted and analysed the data.

Results: We included 15 SRs assessing economic tools (n = 5), product reformulation and labels/claims (n = 5), and educational/environmental interventions (n = 7). Economic tools, product reformulation and environmental measures were effective to reduce sugar intake or weight outcomes, while labels, education and interventions combining educational and environmental measures found mixed effects. The most frequently implemented measures in Europe were public awareness, nutritional education, and labels.

Conclusion: Among measures to reduce sugar intake in the population, economic tools, product reformulation, and environmental interventions were the most effective, but not the more frequently implemented in Europe.

Comment on Zhong et al. Sugar-Sweetened and Diet Beverage Consumption in Philadelphia One Year after the Beverage Tax. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 1336

In February 2020, the paper "Sugar-Sweetened and Diet Beverage Consumption in Philadelphia One Year after the Beverage Tax" was published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health [...].

Distinct Impact of Natural Sugars from Fruit Juices and Added Sugars on Caloric Intake, Body Weight, Glycaemia, Oxidative Stress and Glycation in Diabetic Rats

Although fruit juices are a natural source of sugars, there is a controversy whether their sugar content has similar harmful effects as beverages’ added-sugars. We aimed to study the role of fruit juice sugars in inducing overweight, hyperglycaemia, glycation and oxidative stress in normal and diabetic animal models. In diabetic Goto-Kakizaki (GK) rats, we compared the effects of four different fruit juices (4-weeks) with sugary solutions having a similar sugar profile and concentration. In vitro, the sugary solutions were more susceptible to AGE formation than fruit juices, also causing higher postprandial glycaemia and lower erythrocytes’ antioxidant capacity in vivo (single intake). In GK rats, ad libitum fruit juice consumption (4-weeks) did not change body weight, glycaemia, oxidative stress nor glycation. Consumption of a matched volume of sugary solutions aggravated fasting glycaemia but had a moderate impact on caloric intake and oxidative stress/glycation markers in tissues of diabetic rats. Ad libitum availability of the same sugary solutions impaired energy balance regulation, leading to higher caloric intake than ad libitum fruit juices and controls, as well as weight gain, fasting hyperglycaemia, insulin intolerance and impaired oxidative stress/glycation markers in several tissues. We demonstrated the distinct role of sugars naturally present in fruit juices and added sugars in energy balance regulation, impairing oxidative stress, glycation and glucose metabolism in an animal model of type 2 diabetes.

The adaptation, validation, and application of a methodology for estimating the added sugar content of packaged food products when total and added sugar labels are not mandatory

Nutrition policies recommend limiting the intake of added sugars. Information about added sugar content is not provided on packaged foods in Brazil, and even total sugar content information is often absent. This study aimed to (i) adapt a systematic methodology for estimating added sugar content in packaged foods when information on total and added sugar contents is not mandatory on labels, (ii) apply the adapted methodology to a Brazilian food composition database to estimate the extent of added sugar content in the national food supply, and (iii) assess the validity of the adapted methodology. We developed an 8-step protocol to estimate added sugar content using information provided on food labels. These steps included objective and subjective estimation procedures. Mean, median, and quartiles of the added sugar content of 4,805 Brazilian foods were determined and presented by food categories. Validity was assessed using a US database containing values of added sugar as displayed on the product labels. Objective estimation of added sugar content could be conducted for 3,119 products (64.9%), with the remainder 1,686 (35.1%) being assessed using subjective estimation. We found that 3,093 (64.4%) foods contained added sugar ingredients and the overall estimated median added sugar content was 4.7 g (interquartile range 0-29.3) per 100 g or 100 ml. The validity testing on US data for products with known added sugar values showed excellent agreement between estimated and reported added sugar values (ICC = 0.98). This new methodology is a useful approach for estimating the added sugar content of products in countries where both added and total sugar information are not mandated on food labels. The method can be used to monitor added sugar levels and support interventions aimed at limiting added sugar intake.

Contributions of Food Environments to Dietary Quality and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To evaluate the multidimensional influence of food environments on food choice, dietary quality, and diet-related health and identify critical gaps necessary to develop effective population interventions that influence food choice.

RECENT FINDINGS

Multicomponent interventions that interact with multiple layers of the food environment show limited but consistent effects on dietary behaviors and may have wider and substantive population-level reach with greater incorporation of validated, holistic measurement tools. Opportunities to use smartphone technology to measure multiple components of the food environment will facilitate future interventions, particularly as food environments expand into online settings and interact with consumers in novel ways to shape food choice. While studies suggest that all dimensions of the food environment influence diet and health outcomes, robust and consistent measurements of food environments that integrate objective and subjective components are essential for developing stronger evidence needed to shift public policies.

Changes in the Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components as Well as in Relevant Preventive Medication between 2006 and 2018 in the Northeast Hungarian Population

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a worldwide problem with severe health consequences. In this study, we examine the changes in the prevalence of MetS and its components in two disadvantaged counties of Northeastern Hungary. Two health examination surveys were performed in the Hungarian population aged 20–64 years in 2006 (n = 450) and 2018 (n = 397) and the data were compared to each other. It was found that the prevalence of MetS increased significantly in the period examined (from 34.9% to 42.2%, p = 0.035) due to the increased prevalence of raised blood pressure (from 45.6% to 57.0%, p = 0.002) and raised fasting glucose concentration (13.2% vs. 24.8%, p < 0.001). The increase mainly affects the younger (20–34 years old) age group (12.1% in 2006 vs. 31.6% in 2018, p = 0.001). It is quite alarming that the prevalence of MetS and its components has increased significantly in the last decade, while the prevalence of preventive medication is unchanged (antihypertensive and antidiabetic treatments) or even significantly decreased (lipid-lowering medication). Consequently, the number of individuals untreated for hypertension and metabolic disturbances is severely increased. A targeted public health strategy is desperately needed to prevent further worsening the situation.

Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040

INTRODUCTION

As a population-wide intervention, it has been proposed to raise taxes on unhealthy products to prevent diseases such as type 2 diabetes. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect of tax policy interventions in 2020 on the projected prevalence and number of people with type 2 diabetes in the German adult population in 2040.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We applied an illness-death model and the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) to project the prevalence and number of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany under a base case scenario and under a tax policy intervention scenario. For the base case scenario, we assumed constant age-specific incidence rates between 2020 and 2040. For the intervention scenario, we assumed a 50% price increase for sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco and red meat products in the year 2020. Based on price elasticities, we estimated the impact on these risk factors alone and in combination, and calculated subsequent reductions in the age-specific and sex-specific GDRS. These reductions were used to determine reductions in the incidence rate and prevalence using a partial differential equation.

RESULTS

Compared with the base case scenario, combined tax interventions in 2020 resulted in a 0.95 percentage point decrease in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (16.2% vs 17.1%), which corresponds to 640 000 fewer prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes and a relative reduction by 6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco products and red meat by 50% modestly lowered the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040. Raising taxes on unhealthy products as a stand-alone measure may not be enough to attenuate the future rise of type 2 diabetes.

Health Knowledge of Lifestyle-Related Risks during Pregnancy: A Cross-Sectional Study of Pregnant Women in Germany

This study aimed to investigate (1) pregnant women’s level of knowledge of lifestyle-related risk factors during pregnancy and their potential health impact on their offspring, and (2) the factors affecting women’s knowledge of lifestyle-related risk factors during pregnancy. A cross-sectional observational study of pregnant women was carried out in obstetric and gynecologic care settings at three hospitals in Southern Germany. Data from 209 pregnant women revealed large knowledge gaps on lifestyle-related risk factors during pregnancy and their potential health impact. Factors affecting women’s knowledge of lifestyle-related risk factors during pregnancy were specifically associated with socioeconomic status, e.g., lower household net income, middle educational level, and statutory health insurance status. Women who had received information from their gynecologist had a higher level of knowledge of lifestyle-related risk factors during pregnancy. This study showed that health promotion regarding lifestyle-related risks during pregnancy specifically needs to address women from the low-to-middle socioeconomic status group. Gynecologists seem particularly effective in providing this information.

Taxation of the fat content of foods for reducing their consumption and preventing obesity or other adverse health outcomes

BACKGROUND

Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide and are considered to be a major public health issue of the 21st century. Introducing taxation of the fat content in foods is considered a potentially powerful policy tool to reduce consumption of foods high in fat or saturated fat, or both.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of taxation of the fat content in food on consumption of total fat and saturated fat, energy intake, overweight, obesity, and other adverse health outcomes in the general population.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, MEDLINE, Embase, and 15 other databases and trial registers on 12 September 2019. We handsearched the reference lists of all records of included studies, searched websites of international organizations and institutions (14 October 2019), and contacted review advisory group members to identify planned, ongoing, or unpublished studies (26 February 2020).

SELECTION CRITERIA

In line with Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group (EPOC) criteria, we included the following study types: randomized controlled trials (RCTs), cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCTs), non-randomized controlled trials (nRCTs), controlled before-after (CBA) studies, and interrupted time series studies. We included studies that evaluated the effects of taxes on the fat content in foods. Such a tax could be expressed as sales, excise, or special value added tax (VAT) on the final product or an intermediary product. Eligible interventions were taxation at any level, with no restriction on the duration or the implementation level (i.e. local, regional, national, or multinational). Eligible study populations were children (zero to 17 years) and adults (18 years or older) from any country and setting. We excluded studies that focused on specific subgroups only (e.g. people receiving pharmaceutical intervention; people undergoing a surgical intervention; ill people who are overweight or obese as a side effect, such as those with thyroiditis and depression; and people with chronic illness). Primary outcomes were total fat consumption, consumption of saturated fat, energy intake through fat, energy intake through saturated fat, total energy intake, and incidence/prevalence of overweight or obesity. We did not exclude studies based on country, setting, comparison, or population.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods for all phases of the review. Risk of bias of the included studies was assessed using the criteria of Cochrane's 'Risk of bias' tool and the EPOC Group's guidance. Results of the review are summarized narratively and the certainty of the evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach. These steps were done by two review authors, independently.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 23,281 records from searching electronic databases and 1173 records from other sources, leading to a total of 24,454 records. Two studies met the criteria for inclusion in the review. Both included studies investigated the effect the Danish tax on saturated fat contained in selected food items between 2011 and 2012. Both studies used an interrupted time series design. Neither included study had a parallel control group from another geographic area. The included studies investigated an unbalanced panel of approximately 2000 households in Denmark and the sales data from a specific Danish supermarket chain (1293 stores). Therefore, the included studies did not address individual participants, and no restriction regarding age, sex, and socioeconomic characteristics were defined. We judged the overall risk of bias of the two included studies as unclear. For the outcome total consumption of fat, a reduction of 41.8 grams per week per person in a household (P < 0.001) was estimated. For the consumption of saturated fat, one study reported a reduction of 4.2% from minced beef sales, a reduction of 5.8% from cream sales, and an increase of 0.5% to sour cream sales (no measures of statistical precision were reported for these estimates). These estimates are based on a restricted number of food types and derived from sales data; they do not measure individual intake. Moreover, these estimates do not account for other relevant sources of fat intake (e.g. packaged or processed food) or other food outlets (e.g. restaurants or cafeterias); hence, we judged the evidence on the effect of taxation on total fat consumption or saturated fat consumption to be very uncertain. We did not identify evidence on the effect of the intervention on energy intake or the incidence or prevalence of overweight or obesity.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Given the very low quality of the evidence currently available, we are unable to reliably establish whether a tax on total fat or saturated fat is effective or ineffective in reducing consumption of total fat or saturated fat. There is currently no evidence on the effect of a tax on total fat or saturated fat on total energy intake or energy intake through saturated fat or total fat, or preventing the incidence or reducing the prevalence of overweight or obesity.

Neuroendocrine and Metabolic Effects of Low-Calorie and Non-Calorie Sweeteners

Since excessive sugar consumption has been related to the development of chronic metabolic diseases prevalent in the western world, the use of sweeteners has gradually increased worldwide over the last few years. Although low- and non-calorie sweeteners may represent a valuable tool to reduce calorie intake and prevent weight gain, studies investigating the safety and efficacy of these compounds in the short- and long-term period are scarce and controversial. Therefore, future studies will need to elucidate the potential beneficial and/or detrimental effects of different types of sweeteners on metabolic health (energy balance, appetite, body weight, cardiometabolic risk factors) in healthy subjects and patients with diabetes, obesity and metabolic syndrome. In this regard, the impact of different sweeteners on central nervous system, gut hormones and gut microbiota is important, given the strong implications that changes in such systems may have for human health. The aim of this narrative review is to summarize the current evidence for the neuroendocrine and metabolic effects of sweeteners, as well as their impact on gut microbiota. Finally, we briefly discuss the advantages of the use of sweeteners in the context of very-low calorie ketogenic diets.

Use of the GRADE approach in health policymaking and evaluation: a scoping review of nutrition and physical activity policies

BACKGROUND

Nutrition and physical activity policies have the potential to influence lifestyle patterns and reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases. In the world of health-related guidelines, GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) is the most widely used approach for assessing the certainty of evidence and determining the strength of recommendations. Thus, it is relevant to explore its usefulness also in the process of nutrition and physical activity policymaking and evaluation. The purpose of this scoping review was (i) to generate an exemplary overview of documents using the GRADE approach in the process of nutrition and physical activity policymaking and evaluation, (ii) to find out how the GRADE approach has been applied, and (iii) to explore which facilitators of and barriers to the use of GRADE have been described on the basis of the identified documents. The overarching aim of this work is to work towards improving the process of evidence-informed policymaking in the areas of dietary behavior, physical activity, and sedentary behavior.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted according to current reporting standards. MEDLINE via Ovid, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were systematically searched up until 4 July 2019. Documents describing a body of evidence which was assessed for the development or evaluation of a policy, including documents labeled as "guidelines," or systematic reviews used to inform policymaking were included.

RESULTS

Thirty-six documents were included. Overall, 313 GRADE certainty of evidence ratings were identified in systematic reviews and guidelines; the strength of recommendations/policies was assessed in four documents, and six documents mentioned facilitators or barriers for the use of GRADE. The major reported barrier was the initial low starting level of a body of evidence from non-randomized studies when assessing the certainty of evidence.

CONCLUSION

This scoping review found that the GRADE approach has been used for policy evaluations, in the evaluation of the effectiveness of policy-relevant interventions (policymaking), as well as in the development of guidelines intended to guide policymaking. Several areas for future research were identified to explore the use of GRADE in health policymaking and evaluation.

Taxation of unprocessed sugar or sugar-added foods for reducing their consumption and preventing obesity or other adverse health outcomes

BACKGROUND

Global prevalence of overweight and obesity are alarming. For tackling this public health problem, preventive public health and policy actions are urgently needed. Some countries implemented food taxes in the past and some were subsequently abolished. Some countries, such as Norway, Hungary, Denmark, Bermuda, Dominica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and the Navajo Nation (USA), specifically implemented taxes on unprocessed sugar and sugar-added foods. These taxes on unprocessed sugar and sugar-added foods are fiscal policy interventions, implemented to decrease their consumption and in turn reduce adverse health-related, economic and social effects associated with these food products.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of taxation of unprocessed sugar or sugar-added foods in the general population on the consumption of unprocessed sugar or sugar-added foods, the prevalence and incidence of overweight and obesity, and the prevalence and incidence of other diet-related health outcomes.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, MEDLINE, Embase and 15 other databases and trials registers on 12 September 2019. We handsearched the reference list of all records of included studies, searched websites of international organisations and institutions, and contacted review advisory group members to identify planned, ongoing or unpublished studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies with the following populations: children (0 to 17 years) and adults (18 years or older) from any country and setting. Exclusion applied to studies with specific subgroups, such as people with any disease who were overweight or obese as a side-effect of the disease. The review included studies with taxes on or artificial increases of selling prices for unprocessed sugar or food products that contain added sugar (e.g. sweets, ice cream, confectionery, and bakery products), or both, as intervention, regardless of the taxation level or price increase. In line with Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) criteria, we included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cluster-randomised controlled trials (cRCTs), non-randomised controlled trials (nRCTs), controlled before-after (CBA) studies, and interrupted time series (ITS) studies. We included controlled studies with more than one intervention or control site and ITS studies with a clearly defined intervention time and at least three data points before and three after the intervention. Our primary outcomes were consumption of unprocessed sugar or sugar-added foods, energy intake, overweight, and obesity. Our secondary outcomes were substitution and diet, expenditure, demand, and other health outcomes.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened all eligible records for inclusion, assessed the risk of bias, and performed data extraction.Two review authors independently assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

We retrieved a total of 24,454 records. After deduplicating records, 18,767 records remained for title and abstract screening. Of 11 potentially relevant studies, we included one ITS study with 40,210 household-level observations from the Hungarian Household Budget and Living Conditions Survey. The baseline ranged from January 2008 to August 2011, the intervention was implemented on September 2011, and follow-up was until December 2012 (16 months). The intervention was a tax - the so-called 'Hungarian public health product tax' - on sugar-added foods, including selected foods exceeding a specific sugar threshold value. The intervention includes co-interventions: the taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and of foods high in salt or caffeine. The study provides evidence on the effect of taxing foods exceeding a specific sugar threshold value on the consumption of sugar-added foods. After implementation of the Hungarian public health product tax, the mean consumption of taxed sugar-added foods (measured in units of kg) decreased by 4.0% (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.040, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.07 to -0.01; very low-certainty evidence). The study was at low risk of bias in terms of performance bias, detection bias and reporting bias, with the shape of effect pre-specified and the intervention unlikely to have any effect on data collection. The study was at unclear risk of attrition bias and at high risk in terms of other bias and the independence of the intervention. We rated the certainty of the evidence as very low for the primary and secondary outcomes. The Hungarian public health product tax included a tax on sugar-added foods but did not include a tax on unprocessed sugar. We did not find eligible studies reporting on the taxation of unprocessed sugar. No studies reported on the primary outcomes of consumption of unprocessed sugar, energy intake, overweight, and obesity. No studies reported on the secondary outcomes of substitution and diet, demand, and other health outcomes. No studies reported on differential effects across population subgroups. We could not perform meta-analyses or pool study results.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There was very limited evidence and the certainty of the evidence was very low. Despite the reported reduction in consumption of taxed sugar-added foods, we are uncertain whether taxing unprocessed sugar or sugar-added foods has an effect on reducing their consumption and preventing obesity or other adverse health outcomes. Further robustly conducted studies are required to draw concrete conclusions on the effectiveness of taxing unprocessed sugar or sugar-added foods for reducing their consumption and preventing obesity or other adverse health outcomes.