Long-term evolution of multiple sclerosis disability in the treatment era

Exploring the relationship between disability status, depression, and quality of life in individuals with multiple sclerosis

INTRODUCTION

Depression and the presence of a disability emerge as noteworthy predictors of the quality of life (QoL) in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). In this article, we explore the relationship between disability status, depression, and quality of life in individuals with multiple sclerosis.

METHODS

A total of 150 patients participated in this cross-sectional study. A Persian translation of the Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54 questionnaire was utilized to assess their health-related quality of life (QoL), while the patients' disability levels were measured using the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Additionally, we assessed patients' depression levels using the 21-item BDI-II scale. The questionnaire data were analyzed using SPSS version 25.

RESULTS

A total of 150 MS patients participated in the study, with a mean age of 33.4 years (SD = 3.1). The majority were female (n = 71.2 %). The mean EDSS score was 3.7 (SD = 1.8). In the correlation analysis, we found that EDSS scores were not significantly correlated with mental QoL (r = -0.180, p = 0.109), but were significantly correlated with lower physical QoL (r = -0.393, p 0.001). Depression scores were significantly correlated with mental QoL (r = -0.776, P 0.001) and physical QoL (r = -0. 726, P 0.001). The results reveal that both EDSS and Beck scores significantly affect mental and physical health, explaining 62 % and 60 % of their variances, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate a significant relationship between physical quality of life and EDSS scores in MS patients. Higher EDSS scores consistently corresponded to more significant physical impact, as evidenced by higher impact ratings. Conversely, there was no clear association between EDSS scores and mental quality of life. Furthermore, increased depression levels were linked to reduced levels of both mental and physical well-being. These results emphasize the intricate interplay between the physical aspects of quality of life and their implications for the progression and severity of MS in patients.

The influence of aging and the microbiome in multiple sclerosis and other neurologic diseases

The human gut microbiome is well-recognized as a key player in maintaining health. However, it is a dynamic entity that changes across the lifespan. How the microbial changes that occur in later decades of life shape host health or impact age-associated inflammatory neurological diseases such as multiple sclerosis (MS) is still unclear. Current understanding of the aging gut microbiome is largely limited to cross-sectional observational studies. Moreover, studies in humans are limited by confounding host-intrinsic and extrinsic factors that are not easily disentangled from aging. This review provides a comprehensive summary of existing literature on the aging gut microbiome and its known relationships with neurological diseases, with a specific focus on MS. We will also discuss preclinical animal models and human studies that shed light on the complex microbiota-host interactions that have the potential to influence disease pathology and progression in aging individuals. Lastly, we propose potential avenues of investigation to deconvolute features of an aging microbiota that contribute to disease, or alternatively promote health in advanced age.

Selection of disease modifying therapies in multiple sclerosis based on patient's age and disease activity: Data from a nationwide registry

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of the safety and efficacy of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in older patients with Multiple Sclerosis (pwMS) is limited due to their exclusion from clinical trials. Our purpose is to evaluate the choice of DMTs in pwMS older than 50 years old in a real-world setting.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of pwMS from the Argentine MS and NMOSD Registry. We included patients under 35 and above 50 years old prescribed DMTs. Disease activity was categorized as highly active (HA) or not highly active (NHA), and DMTs were classified as low efficacy therapies (LET) or high efficacy therapies (HET).

RESULTS

1460 patients (65% females) were enrolled. The HA group comprised 241 patients, 198 young (82.2%) and 43 older (17.8%). The NHA group included 1219 patients, 893 young (73%) and 326 older (27%). In the NHA group, older patients received LET more frequently than younger patients (66% versus 44%; p < 0.01). In the HA group, older patients received LET in 61% of cases, whereas younger patients received HET in 71% (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The study shows the preference of LET in older patients regardless of disease activity. However it does not demonstrate a difference in disability in older patients based on low vs high efficacy DMTs used, probably due to the design of the study. Further longitudinal studies are warranted to address this issue.

Sex impacts treatment decisions in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Individual disease-modifying treatment (DMT) decisions might differ between female and male people with MS (pwMS).

OBJECTIVE

To identify sex-related differences in DMT strategies over the past decades in a real-world setting.

METHODS

In this cohort study, data from the Austrian Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Registry (AMSTR), a nationwide prospectively collected registry mandatory for reimbursement, were retrospectively analyzed. Of 4840 pwMS, those with relapsing-remitting MS, aged at least 18 years, who started DMT and had at least two clinical visits, were identified. At baseline, demographics, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, annualized relapse rate (ARR) in the prior 12 months and MRI lesion load were assessed. At follow-up, ARR, EDSS scores, and DMT were determined.

RESULTS

A total of 4224 pwMS were included into the study and had a median of 10 (IQR 5-18) clinical visits over an observation period of 3.5 (IQR 1.5-6.1) years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that the probability of DMT escalation due to relapse activity was lower in female than male pwMS (HR 4.1 vs. 8.3 per ARR). Probability of discontinuing moderate-effective DMT was higher in female pwMS when they were younger (HR 1.03 per year), and lower in male pwMS at higher age (HR 0.92). Similarly, female pwMS were more likely to stop highly effective DMT than male pwMS (HR 1.7). Among others, the most frequent reason for DMT discontinuation was family planning in female pwMS. All sex-related effects were independent of disease activity, such as MRI lesion load, baseline ARR or EDSS.

CONCLUSIONS

Real-world treatment decisions are influenced by sex-related aspects. Awareness of these associations should prevent unwarranted differences in MS care.

The Study of Remyelinating Therapies in Multiple Sclerosis: Visual Outcomes as a Window Into Repair

INTRODUCTION

Amelioration of disability in multiple sclerosis requires the development of complementary therapies that target neurodegeneration and promote repair. Remyelination is a promising neuroprotective strategy that may protect axons from damage and subsequent neurodegeneration.

METHODS

A review of key literature plus additional targeted search of PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted.

RESULTS

There has been a rapid expansion of clinical trials studying putative remyelinating candidates, but further growth of the field is limited by the lack of consensus on key aspects of trial design. We have not yet defined the ideal study population, duration of therapy, or the appropriate outcome measures to detect remyelination in humans. The varied natural history of multiple sclerosis, coupled with the short time frame of phase II clinical trials, requires that we develop and validate biomarkers of remyelination that can serve as surrogate endpoints in clinical trials.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose that the visual system may be the most well-suited and validated model for the study potential remyelinating agents. In this review, we discuss the pathophysiology of demyelination and summarize the current clinical trial landscape of remyelinating agents. We present some of the challenges in the study of remyelinating agents and discuss current potential biomarkers of remyelination and repair, emphasizing both established and emerging visual outcome measures.

Shifting our attention earlier in the multiple sclerosis disease course

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Revisions of multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnostic criteria enable clinicians to diagnose patients earlier in the biologic disease course. Prompt initiation of therapy correlates with improved clinical outcomes. This has led to increased attention on the earliest stages of MS, including the MS prodrome and radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS). Here, we review current understanding and approach to patients with preclinical MS.

RECENT FINDINGS

MS disease biology often begins well before the onset of typical MS symptoms, and we are increasingly able to recognize preclinical and prodromal stages of MS. RIS represents the best characterized aspect of preclinical MS, and its diagnostic criteria were recently revised to better capture patients at highest risk of conversion to clinical MS. The first two randomized control trials evaluating disease modifying therapy use in RIS also found that treatment could delay or prevent onset of clinical disease.

SUMMARY

Despite progress in our understanding of the earliest stages of the MS disease course, additional research is needed to systematically identify patients with preclinical MS as well as capture those at risk for developing clinical disease. Recent data suggests that preventive immunomodulatory therapies may be beneficial for high-risk patients with RIS; though management remains controversial.

Palliative Care Aspects in Multiple Sclerosis

CONTEXT

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory, chronic, demyelinating, and neurodegenerative disorder of central nervous system, determined by an auto-immune dysfunction. Severe disability generally occurs in patients with progressive forms of MS that typically develop either after an earlier relapsing phase or less commonly from disease onset. Despite advances in research to slow the progression of MS, this condition remains a life-limiting disease with symptoms impacting negatively the lives of patients and caregivers.

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the difefrent aspects of palliative cae in patients with MS.

METHODS

To analyse selected literature assessing several palliative care aspects in patients with MS.

RESULTS

People with MS have complex symptoms and different needs. These demands include how to deal with the burden of physical disability, how to organise daily life, restructuring social roles in the family and at work, keeping self-sufficiency in personal care, and preserving personal identity and community roles.

CONCLUSION

An early palliative care approach aims to improve the palliative care skills and competencies of health professionals caring for the patients since the early stage of disease, including those who are actively undergoing disease-targeted therapies, rather than merely providing end-of-life care.

Synaptic injury in the inner plexiform layer of the retina is associated with progression in multiple sclerosis

While neurodegeneration underlies the pathological basis for permanent disability in multiple sclerosis (MS), predictive biomarkers for progression are lacking. Using an animal model of chronic MS, we find that synaptic injury precedes neuronal loss and identify thinning of the inner plexiform layer (IPL) as an early feature of inflammatory demyelination-prior to symptom onset. As neuronal domains are anatomically segregated in the retina and can be monitored longitudinally, we hypothesize that thinning of the IPL could represent a biomarker for progression in MS. Leveraging our dataset with over 800 participants enrolled for more than 12 years, we find that IPL atrophy directly precedes progression and propose that synaptic loss is predictive of functional decline. Using a blood proteome-wide analysis, we demonstrate a strong correlation between demyelination, glial activation, and synapse loss independent of neuroaxonal injury. In summary, monitoring synaptic injury is a biologically relevant approach that reflects a potential driver of progression.

Treatment algorithms of relapsing multiple sclerosis: an exploration based on the available disease-modifying therapies in China

Multiple sclerosis (MS) was defined as a rare disease in China due to its low prevalence. For a long time, interferon β was the only approved disease-modifying therapy (DMT). Since the first oral DMT was approved in 2018, DMT approval accelerated, and seven DMTs were approved within 5 years. With an increasing number of DMTs being prescribed in clinical practice, it is necessary to discuss the standardized MS treatment algorithms depending on the disease activity and DMT availability. In this review paper, more than 20 Chinese experts in MS have reviewed the therapeutic progress of MS in China and worldwide and discussed algorithms for treating relapsing MS (RMS) based on the available DMTs in China, providing insights for establishing the standardized RMS treatment algorithms in this country.

The Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

It is increasingly recognized that cognitive symptoms are a common sequelae of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and are associated with adverse functional consequences. However, estimates of cognitive impairment (CIm) prevalence vary widely. This study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence of CIm among adults with RRMS and investigate moderators of prevalence rates. Following prospective registration (PROSPERO; CRD42021281815), electronic databases (Embase, Scopus, Medline, and PsycINFO) were searched from inception until March 2023. Eligible studies reported the prevalence of CIm among adults with RRMS, as determined through standardized neuropsychological testing and defined as evidence of reduced performance across at least two cognitive domains (e.g., processing speed, attention) relative to normative samples, healthy controls, or premorbid estimates. The electronic database search yielded 8695 unique records, of which 50 met selection criteria. The pooled prevalence of cognitive impairment was 32.5% (95% confidence interval 29.3-36.0%) across 5859 participants. Mean disease duration and age were significant predictors of cognitive impairment prevalence, with samples with longer disease durations and older age reporting higher prevalence rates. Studies which administered more extensive test batteries also reported significantly higher cognitive impairment prevalence. Approximately one third of adults with RRMS experience clinical levels of CIm. This finding supports the use of routine cognitive testing to enable early detection of CIm, and to identify individuals who may benefit from additional cognitive and functional support during treatment planning.

Identification and management of subclinical disease activity in early multiple sclerosis: a review

IMPORTANCE

Early treatment initiation in multiple sclerosis (MS) is crucial in preventing irreversible neurological damage and disability progression. The current assessment of disease activity relies on relapse rates and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesion activity, but inclusion of other early, often "hidden," indicators of disease activity may describe a more comprehensive picture of MS.

OBSERVATIONS

Early indicators of MS disease activity other than relapses and MRI activity, such as cognitive impairment, brain atrophy, and fatigue, are not typically captured by routine disease monitoring. Furthermore, silent progression (neurological decline not clearly captured by standard methods) may occur undetected by relapse and MRI lesion activity monitoring. Consequently, patients considered to have no disease activity actually may have worsening disease, suggesting a need to revise MS management strategies with respect to timely initiation and escalation of disease-modifying therapy (DMT). Traditionally, first-line MS treatment starts with low- or moderate-efficacy therapies, before escalating to high-efficacy therapies (HETs) after evidence of breakthrough disease activity. However, multiple observational studies have shown that early initiation of HETs can prevent or reduce disability progression. Ongoing randomized clinical trials are comparing escalation and early HET approaches.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

There is an urgent need to reassess how MS disease activity and worsening are measured. A greater awareness of "hidden" indicators, potentially combined with biomarkers to reveal silent disease activity and neurodegeneration underlying MS, would provide a more complete picture of MS and allow for timely therapeutic intervention with HET or switching DMTs to address suboptimal treatment responses.

Late-onset multiple sclerosis: disability trajectories in relapsing-remitting patients of the Italian MS Registry

BACKGROUND

Generally infrequent, multiple sclerosis (MS) with late onset (LOMS) is characterized by an onset over the age of 50 and a mainly progressive course, while relapsing-remitting (RR) forms are less frequently observed and explored. This study aimed to characterize a large cohort of MS patients with RRMS at onset to assess the baseline factors related to the worst disability trajectories and explore the role of LOMS.

METHODS

The data were extracted from the Italian MS Register (IMSR). Disability trajectories, defined using at least two and up to twenty expanded disability status scale (EDSS) assessments annually performed, were implemented using group-based trajectory models (GBTMs) to identify different groups with the same trajectories over time. MS profiles were explored using multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 16,159 RR patients [1012 (6.26%) presented with LOMS] were analyzed. The GBTM identified four disability trajectories. The group with the most severe EDSS trend included 12.3% of the patients with a mean EDSS score > 4, which increased over time and exceeded 6 score. The group with medium severity EDSS trend comprised 21.9% of the patients and showed a change in EDSS > 3 scores over time. The largest group with 50.8% of patients reported a constant EDSS of 2 score. Finally, the benign group comprised 14.9% of the patients with a low and constant EDSS of 1 score over time. The probability of being in the worst groups increased if the patient was male; had LOMS or experienced brainstem, spinal, or supratentorial symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Four MS severity profiles among RRMS patients in the IMSR have been reported, with LOMS being associated with a rapid worsening of EDSS scores. These findings have important implications for recognizing and managing how older age, aging, and age-related factors interact with MS and its evolution.

Predicting disease severity in multiple sclerosis using multimodal data and machine learning

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis patients would benefit from machine learning algorithms that integrates clinical, imaging and multimodal biomarkers to define the risk of disease activity.

METHODS

We have analysed a prospective multi-centric cohort of 322 MS patients and 98 healthy controls from four MS centres, collecting disability scales at baseline and 2 years later. Imaging data included brain MRI and optical coherence tomography, and omics included genotyping, cytomics and phosphoproteomic data from peripheral blood mononuclear cells. Predictors of clinical outcomes were searched using Random Forest algorithms. Assessment of the algorithm performance was conducted in an independent prospective cohort of 271 MS patients from a single centre.

RESULTS

We found algorithms for predicting confirmed disability accumulation for the different scales, no evidence of disease activity (NEDA), onset of immunotherapy and the escalation from low- to high-efficacy therapy with intermediate to high-accuracy. This accuracy was achieved for most of the predictors using clinical data alone or in combination with imaging data. Still, in some cases, the addition of omics data slightly increased algorithm performance. Accuracies were comparable in both cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Combining clinical, imaging and omics data with machine learning helps identify MS patients at risk of disability worsening.

Long-term clinical outcomes in patients with multiple sclerosis who are initiating disease-modifying therapy with natalizumab compared with BRACETD first-line therapies

Background

Aggressive disease control soon after multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnosis may prevent irreversible neurological damage, and therefore early initiation of a high-efficacy disease-modifying therapy (DMT) is of clinical relevance.

Objectives

Evaluate long-term clinical outcomes in patients with MS who initiated treatment with either natalizumab or a BRACETD therapy (interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, teriflunomide, or dimethyl fumarate).

Design

This retrospective analysis utilized data from MSBase to create a matched population allowing comparison of first-line natalizumab to first-line BRACETD.

Methods

This study included patients who initiated treatment either with natalizumab or a BRACETD DMT within 1 year of MS diagnosis and continued treatment for ⩾6 months, after which patients could switch DMTs or discontinue treatment. Patients had a minimum follow-up time of ⩾60 months from initiation. A subgroup analysis compared the natalizumab group to patients in the BRACETD group who escalated therapy after 6 months. Outcomes included unadjusted annualized relapse rates (ARRs), time-to-first relapse, time-to-first confirmed disability improvement (CDI), and time-to-first confirmed disability worsening (CDW).

Results

After 1:1 propensity score matching, 355 BRACETD patients were matched to 355 natalizumab patients. Patients initiating natalizumab were less likely to experience a relapse over the duration of follow-up, with ARRs [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.080 (0.070-0.092) for natalizumab patients and 0.191 (0.178-0.205) for BRACETD patients (p < 0.0001). A Cox regression model of time-to-first relapse showed a reduced risk of relapse for natalizumab patients [hazard ratio (95% CI) of 0.52 (0.42-0.65); p < 0.001] and a more favorable time-to-first CDI. The risk of CDW was similar between groups. The subgroup analysis showed an increased relapse risk as well as a significantly higher risk of CDW for BRACETD patients.

Conclusion

Early initiation of natalizumab produced long-term benefits in relapse outcomes in comparison with BRACETD, regardless of a subsequent escalation in therapy.

Emerging biomarkers for improving pregnancy planning in multiple sclerosis

Background

Patient disability, relapse rate, and age are used for family planning in multiple sclerosis (MS). However, the need for more accurate biomarkers is widely recognized. We aimed to explore the influence of age on neurofilament light chain (sNfL), which reflects acute inflammation; glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), associated with disability progression independent of relapses; and anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), reflecting ovarian reserve, to provide a tailored family planning strategy.

Methods

This case-control study included 95 MS patients and 61 healthy control women (HCW). sNfL and GFAP levels were measured using a sensitive single-molecule array assay. AMH levels were measured by the automated Elecsys® Anti-Müllerian Hormone Assay.

Results

We observed no significant differences in AMH values between MS patients and the control group within any of the age-matched categories. Age exhibited a negative correlation with AMH values in both groups, as expected. Nevertheless, our findings suggest a slight tendency toward reduced ovarian reserve in MS patients (rho MS patients = -0.67, p < 0.0001; rho HCW = -0.43, p = 0.0006). Interestingly, among the 76 MS participants under 40 years old, we identified ten individuals (13.1%) with AMH levels below 0.7 ng/ml, indicative of a low ovarian reserve, and an additional six individuals (7.8%) with AMH levels between 0.7 ng/ml and 0.9 ng/ml, suggesting a potential risk of premature ovarian failure. Conversely, sNfL and GFAP levels in the MS group exhibited high variability but showed no significant association with age intervals.

Conclusion

We found no significant differences in AMH, sNfL or GFAP values between MS patients and the control group within any of the age-matched categories. The assessment of AMH, sNFL and GFAP levels at MS onset facilitates personalized therapeutic and family planning strategies for childbearing-age women.

Disease-modifying treatment, long-term outcomes and transition to progressive multiple sclerosis: data based on the New York State MS Consortium

BACKGROUND

The impact of disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) on multiple sclerosis (MS) long-term outcomes is continuously evolving. Retrospective analyses of large and long-term registries could provide information regarding general disease trajectories and risk factors that are commonly not investigated in shorter clinical trial settings.

METHODS

Retrospective observational study of people with MS (pwMS) registered in New York State MS Consortium (NYSMSC) since 1996. Disability outcomes of reaching sustained Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores of 4.0, 6.0 and transition to secondary-progressive MS (SPMS) were confirmed at follow-up. Four DMT categories were determined (1) continuous DMT use, (2) discontinued DMT, (3) (re)started DMT and (4) never treated with DMT. Patient-reported outcomes (PRO) were acquired using LIFEware system. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and adjusted analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) were used to determine the rate and factors related to disability progression.

RESULTS

Total of 1893 pwMS were included with baseline average age of 43.2 years (SD = 10.4), 9.6 years of disease duration (SD = 8.8), median EDSS of 3.0 (IQR 2.0-3.5) and average follow-up time of 6.9 years (SD = 4.9). In addition to being male, older, more disabled and reporting worse PROs at baseline, pwMS who discontinued DMT had more than 5.5 times greater risk of reaching sustained EDSS of 4.0 (OR = 5.56, 95% CI 2.78-11.0, p < 0.001). Similarly, pwMS who discontinued DMT during the NYSMSC follow-up had 3.8- and 4.7-times greater risk to reach sustained EDSS 6.0 (OR = 3.86, 95% CI 2.12-7.02, p < 0.001), and to transition to SPMS (OR = 4.77, 95% CI 2.9-7.87, p < 0.001). Propensity matching analysis confirmed the worse clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to known predictors of long-term clinical outcomes, pwMS who discontinue DMT have worse long-term disability trajectory when compared to both early and late DMT starters. PRO-based indicators may suggest worse clinical outcomes.

Multiple sclerosis in the elderly: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of knowledge of disease course, prognosis, comorbidities and potential treatments of elderly MS patients.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the disease course including disability progression and relapses, to quantify the use of DMTs and to identify comorbidities and risk factors for progression in elderly multiple sclerosis (MS) patients.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study of 1200 Austrian MS patients older than 55 years as of May 1st, 2017 representing roughly one-third of all the MS patients of this age in Austria. Data were collected from 15 MS centers including demographics, first symptom at onset, number of relapses, evolvement of disability, medication, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Median observation time was 17.1 years with 957 (80%) relapsing and 243 (20%) progressive onsets. Average age at diagnosis was 45 years with a female predominance of 71%. Three-hundred and twenty-six (27%) patients were never treated with a DMT, while most treated patients received interferons (496; 41%) at some point. At last follow-up, 420 (35%) patients were still treated with a DMT. No difference was found between treated and never-treated patients in terms of clinical outcome; however, patients with worse disability progression had significantly more DMT switches. Pyramidal onset, number of comorbidities, dementia, epilepsy, and psychiatric conditions as well as a higher number of relapses were associated with worse outcome. The risk of reaching EDSS 6 rose with every additional comorbidity by 22%. In late and very-late-onset MS (LOMS, VLOMS) time to diagnosis took nearly twice the time compared to adult and early onset (AEOMS). The overall annualized relapse rate (ARR) decreased over time and patients with AEOMS had significantly higher ARR compared to LOMS and VLOMS. Four percent of MS patients had five medications or more fulfilling criteria of polypharmacy and 20% of psychiatric drugs were administered without a matching diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we identified number of comorbidities, pyramidal and cerebellar signs, and a higher number of relapses as unfavorable prognostic factors in elderly MS patients filling gaps of knowledge in patients usually underrepresented in clinical trials and may guide future therapeutic studies.

Highly Effective Therapy Versus Escalation Approaches in Early Multiple Sclerosis: What Is the Future of Multiple Sclerosis Treatment?

Treatment options for patients newly diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS) are expanding with the continuous development and approval of new disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). The optimal initial treatment strategy, however, remains unclear. The 2 main treatment paradigms currently employed are the escalation (ESC) approach and the early highly effective treatment (EHT) approach. The ESC approach consists of starting a lower- or moderate-efficacy DMT, which offers a potentially safer approach, while the EHT approach favors higher-efficacy treatment early in the disease course, despite a potential increase in risk. Randomized clinical trials aiming to directly compare these approaches in newly diagnosed MS patients are currently underway.

Risk Factors and Clinical Outcomes of COVID-19 Infection in Multiple Sclerosis Patients: A Retrospective Study from a Single Center in Kosovo

BACKGROUND Multiple sclerosis (MS) is treated with disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) that can increase susceptibility to viral infections. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the presentation, management, and outcomes of patients with MS on DMTs admitted with symptoms of COVID-19 to a single center in Prishtina, Kosovo between March 2020 and April 2022. MATERIAL AND METHODS In this observational, single-center study, we included 282 patients with MS (mean age 37.8±11, 64.9% females), of whom 272 (96.4%) had confirmed COVID-19 infection, either through the presence of antibodies in the serum or a positive PCR test. RESULTS Most patients with COVID-19 infection were either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, while 11 patients were hospitalized due to moderate to severe symptoms. Among those with severe infection, 2 patients have died. Patients with moderate and severe COVID-19 had more advanced MS disease (P=0.001) and higher disability scales (P<0.001). In a logistic regression analysis, advanced MS remained significantly associated with worse symptoms, even after adjusting for other risk factors, with a relative risk (RR) of 2.8 (95% CI=1.1-6.6, P=0.018). MS patients on anti-CD20 DMTs more frequently experienced moderate and severe symptoms (RR=2.1, 95% CI=1.1-4.0, P=0.012). Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG was also lower in patients treated with anti-CD20. Notably, patients receiving vitamin D supplementation experienced a lower frequency of moderate to severe symptoms (P=0.007). CONCLUSIONS Patients with advanced MS exhibiting higher disability scales and those on anti-CD20 therapy faced an increased risk of experiencing more pronounced symptoms after COVID-19 infection. Patients on vitamin D supplementation had better clinical outcomes.

Multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis remains one of the most common causes of neurological disability in the young adult population (aged 18-40 years). Novel pathophysiological findings underline the importance of the interaction between genetics and environment. Improvements in diagnostic criteria, harmonised guidelines for MRI, and globalised treatment recommendations have led to more accurate diagnosis and an earlier start of effective immunomodulatory treatment than previously. Understanding and capturing the long prodromal multiple sclerosis period would further improve diagnostic abilities and thus treatment initiation, eventually improving long-term disease outcomes. The large portfolio of currently available medications paved the way for personalised therapeutic strategies that will balance safety and effectiveness. Incorporation of cognitive interventions, lifestyle recommendations, and management of non-neurological comorbidities could further improve quality of life and outcomes. Future challenges include the development of medications that successfully target the neurodegenerative aspect of the disease and creation of sensitive imaging and fluid biomarkers that can effectively predict and monitor disease changes.

A mixture model for differentiating longitudinal courses of multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis has a broad spectrum of clinical courses. Early identification of patients at greater risk of accumulating disability is essential.

OBJECTIVES

Identify groups of patients with similar presentation through a mixture model and predict their trajectories over the years.

METHODS

Retrospective study of patients from 1994 to 2019. We performed a latent profile analysis followed by a latent transition analysis based on eight parameters: age, disease duration, EDSS, number of relapses, multi-topographic symptoms, motor impairment, sphincter impairment, and infratentorial lesions.

RESULTS

We included 629 patients, regardless of the phenotypical classification. We identified three distinct groups at the beginning and end of the follow-up. The three-classes model disclosed the "No disability regardless disease duration" (NDRDD) class with low EDSS and younger patients, the "Disability within a short disease duration" (DSDD) class with the worse disability besides short illness, and the "Disability within a long disease duration" (DLDD) class that achieved high EDSS over a long disease duration. EDSS, disease duration, and no sphincter impairment had the best entropy to distinguish classes at the initial presentation. Over time, the patients from NDRDD had a 52.1 % probability of changing to DLDD and 7.7 % of changing to DSDD.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified three groups of clinical presentations and their evolution over time based on considered prognostic factors. The most likely transition is from NDRDD to DLDD.

The Peripheral Profile of the Chitinase 3-like-1 in Benign Multiple Sclerosis - A Single Centre's Experience

BACKGROUND

A limited subgroup of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients present with a longterm disease evolution characterized by a limited disease progression, known as benign MS (BMS). Chitinase 3-like-1 (CHI3L1) levels are sensitive to inflammatory processes and may play a role in the pathogenesis of MS. In this observational, cross-sectional study, we aimed to evaluate the implications of serum CHI3L1 and inflammatory cytokines in BMS patients treated with interferon β-1b for over a decade.

METHODS

We collected serum samples from 17 BMS patients and 17 healthy controls (HC) to measure serum CHI3L1 levels and a Th17 panel of inflammatory cytokines. Serum levels of CHI3L1 were analysed using the sandwich ELISA method and the Th17 panel was assessed using the multiplex XMap technology on a Flexmap 3D Analyzer.

RESULTS

Serum CHI3L1 levels did not differ significantly from HC. We identified a positive correlation between CHI3L1 levels and relapses during treatment.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that there are no differences in serum CHI3L1 levels between BMS patients and HC. However, serum CHI3L1 levels are sensitive to clinical inflammatory activity and may be associated with relapses in BMS patients.

High-resolution DNA methylation screening of the major histocompatibility complex in multiple sclerosis

Background

The HLA-DRB1 gene in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region in chromosome 6p21 is the strongest genetic factor identified as influencing multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility. DNA methylation changes associated with MS have been consistently detected at the MHC region. However, understanding the full scope of epigenetic regulations of the MHC remains incomplete, due in part to the limited coverage of this region by standard whole genome bisulfite sequencing or array-based methods.

Methods

We developed and validated an MHC capture protocol coupled with bisulfite sequencing and conducted a comprehensive analysis of the MHC methylation landscape in blood samples from 147 treatment naïve MS study participants and 129 healthy controls.

Results

We identified 132 differentially methylated region (DMRs) within MHC region associated with disease status. The DMRs overlapped with established MS risk loci. Integration of the MHC methylome with human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genetic data indicate that the methylation changes are significantly associated with HLA genotypes. Using DNA methylation quantitative trait loci (mQTL) mapping and the causal inference test (CIT), we identified 643 cis-mQTL-DMRs paired associations, including 71 DMRs possibly mediating causal relationships between 55 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and MS risk.

Results

The results describe MS-associated methylation changes in MHC region and highlight the association between HLA genotypes and methylation changes. Results from the mQTL and CIT analyses provide evidence linking MHC region variations, methylation changes, and disease risk for MS.

No Evidence of Disease Activity (NEDA) as a Clinical Assessment Tool for Multiple Sclerosis: Clinician and Patient Perspectives [Narrative Review]

The emergence of high-efficacy therapies for multiple sclerosis (MS), which target inflammation more effectively than traditional disease-modifying therapies, has led to a shift in MS management towards achieving the outcome assessment known as no evidence of disease activity (NEDA). The most common NEDA definition, termed NEDA-3, is a composite of three related measures of disease activity: no clinical relapses, no disability progression, and no radiological activity. NEDA has been frequently used as a composite endpoint in clinical trials, but there is growing interest in its use as an assessment tool to help patients and healthcare professionals navigate treatment decisions in the clinic. Raising awareness about NEDA may therefore help patients and clinicians make more informed decisions around MS management and improve overall MS care. This review aims to explore the potential utility of NEDA as a clinical decision-making tool and treatment target by summarizing the literature on its current use in the context of the expanding treatment landscape. We identify current challenges to the use of NEDA in clinical practice and detail the proposed amendments, such as the inclusion of alternative outcomes and biomarkers, to broaden the clinical information captured by NEDA. These themes are further illustrated with the real-life perspectives and experiences of our two patient authors with MS. This review is intended to be an educational resource to support discussions between clinicians and patients on this evolving approach to MS-specialized care.

The risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis is geographically determined but modifiable

Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability. We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties. We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients was 39 (95% confidence interval: 37 to 43) years. Higher latitude [median hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% credible interval (1.16, 1.26)], higher national multiple sclerosis prevalence [1.07 (1.03, 1.11)], male sex [1.30 (1.22, 1.39)], older age at onset [1.35 (1.30, 1.39)], higher disability [2.40 (2.34, 2.47)] and frequent relapses [1.18 (1.15, 1.21)] at inclusion were associated with increased hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Higher proportion of time on high-to-moderate efficacy therapy substantially reduced the hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [0.76 (0.73, 0.79)] and reduced the effect of latitude [interaction: 0.95 (0.92, 0.99)]. At the country-level, patients in Oman, Tunisia, Iran and Canada had higher risks of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis relative to the other studied regions. Higher latitude of residence is associated with a higher probability of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. High-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy can mitigate some of this geographically co-determined risk.

Prospective analyses of alertness, sleep, and fitness to drive one year after de novo multiple sclerosis diagnosis

BACKGROUND

The prevalence and functional burden of the chronic demyelinating disease multiple sclerosis (MS) are well documented; however, little is known about the initial clinical course of alertness, sleep, cognitive, and psychological symptoms.

OBJECTIVES

This exploratory, prospective, longitudinal study multidimensionally investigated the development and progression of alertness, sleep, fitness to drive, and psychological symptoms in the first year after de novo MS diagnosis.

METHODS

Twenty-five people with MS (pwMS) were assessed cognitively, psychologically, and using polysomnography soon after diagnosis and one year later, with outcomes compared to matched healthy controls.

RESULTS

In the early stage of the disease, psychological symptoms of pwMS were comparable with those of controls, and patient conditions did not deteriorate within the first disease year. A small percentage of pwMS experienced increased levels of anxiety and depression after diagnosis. Alertness, sustained attention, and fitness to drive were comparable between both groups, and fatigue levels remained low over the course of the year.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights patient experiences within the initial clinical course of MS in a small group of patients. Further research is needed to understand the progression of symptoms and impairments in MS over a longer period and in different stages of the disease.

Prevalence of 2-year "No evidence of disease activity" (NEDA-3 and NEDA-4) in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. A real-world study

BACKGROUND

No evidence of disease activity (NEDA) is becoming a gold standard in the evaluation of disease modifying therapies (DMT) in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). NEDA-3 status is the absence of relapses, new activity on brain MRI, and disability progression. NEDA-4 meets all NEDA-3 criteria plus lack of brain atrophy.

OBJECTIVE

Aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of two-year NEDA-3, NEDA-4, six-month delayed NEDA-3 (6mdNEDA-3), and six-month delayed NEDA-4 (6mdNEDA-4) in a cohort of patients with RRMS. Six-month delayed measures were introduced to consider latency of action of drugs.

METHODS

Observational retrospective monocentric study. All the patients with RRMS starting DMT between 2015 and 2018, and with 2-year of follow-up, were included. Annualized brain volume loss (a-BVL) was calculated by SIENA software.

RESULTS

We included 108 patients, the majority treated with first line DMT. At 2-year follow-up, 35 % of patients were NEDA-3 (50 % 6mdNEDA-3), and 17 % NEDA-4 (28 % 6mdNEDA-4). Loss of NEDA-3 status was mainly driven by MRI activity (70 %), followed by relapses (56 %), and only minimally by disability progression (7 %).

CONCLUSION

In our cohort 2-year NEDA status, especially including lack of brain atrophy, was hard to achieve. Further studies are needed to establish the prognostic value of NEDA-3 and NEDA4 in the long-term follow-up.

Genetic influences on disease course and severity, 30 years after a clinically isolated syndrome

Multiple sclerosis risk has a well-established polygenic component, yet the genetic contribution to disease course and severity remains unclear and difficult to examine. Accurately measuring disease progression requires long-term study of clinical and radiological outcomes with sufficient follow-up duration to confidently confirm disability accrual and multiple sclerosis phenotypes. In this retrospective study, we explore genetic influences on long-term disease course and severity; in a unique cohort of clinically isolated syndrome patients with homogenous 30-year disease duration, deep clinical phenotyping and advanced MRI metrics. Sixty-one clinically isolated syndrome patients [41 female (67%): 20 male (33%)] underwent clinical and MRI assessment at baseline, 1-, 5-, 10-, 14-, 20- and 30-year follow-up (mean age ± standard deviation: 60.9 ± 6.5 years). After 30 years, 29 patients developed relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, 15 developed secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and 17 still had a clinically isolated syndrome. Twenty-seven genes were investigated for associations with clinical outcomes [including disease course and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)] and brain MRI (including white matter lesions, cortical lesions, and brain tissue volumes) at the 30-year follow-up. Genetic associations with changes in EDSS, relapses, white matter lesions and brain atrophy (third ventricular and medullary measurements) over 30 years were assessed using mixed-effects models. HLA-DRB1*1501-positive (n = 26) patients showed faster white matter lesion accrual [+1.96 lesions/year (0.64-3.29), P = 3.8 × 10-3], greater 30-year white matter lesion volumes [+11.60 ml, (5.49-18.29), P = 1.27 × 10-3] and higher annualized relapse rates [+0.06 relapses/year (0.005-0.11), P = 0.031] compared with HLA-DRB1*1501-negative patients (n = 35). PVRL2-positive patients (n = 41) had more cortical lesions (+0.83 [0.08-1.66], P = 0.042), faster EDSS worsening [+0.06 points/year (0.02-0.11), P = 0.010], greater 30-year EDSS [+1.72 (0.49-2.93), P = 0.013; multiple sclerosis cases: +2.60 (1.30-3.87), P = 2.02 × 10-3], and greater risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [odds ratio (OR) = 12.25 (1.15-23.10), P = 0.031] than PVRL2-negative patients (n = 18). In contrast, IRX1-positive (n = 30) patients had preserved 30-year grey matter fraction [+0.76% (0.28-1.29), P = 8.4 × 10-3], lower risk of cortical lesions [OR = 0.22 (0.05-0.99), P = 0.049] and lower 30-year EDSS [-1.35 (-0.87,-3.44), P = 0.026; multiple sclerosis cases: -2.12 (-0.87, -3.44), P = 5.02 × 10-3] than IRX1-negative patients (n = 30). In multiple sclerosis cases, IRX1-positive patients also had slower EDSS worsening [-0.07 points/year (-0.01,-0.13), P = 0.015] and lower risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [OR = 0.19 (0.04-0.92), P = 0.042]. These exploratory findings support diverse genetic influences on pathological mechanisms associated with multiple sclerosis disease course. HLA-DRB1*1501 influenced white matter inflammation and relapses, while IRX1 (protective) and PVRL2 (adverse) were associated with grey matter pathology (cortical lesions and atrophy), long-term disability worsening and the risk of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

Subclinical damage to the contralateral eye in unilateral optic neuritis: A longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Early detection of subclinical injuries can lead to a correct diagnosis and help control the advancement of the condition. This study aims to investigate the presence of subclinical damage and silent progression to the contralateral eye's visual function and structure in patients experiencing their first episode of unilateral optic neuritis (ON).

METHODS

Fifty patients with first-onset unilateral ON were enrolled in this study. Based on etiology, they were classified as having neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder-related ON (NMOSD-ON), myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated ON (MOG-ON), idiopathic ON (IDON), or multiple sclerosis-related ON (MS-ON). These cases were followed up for one year to determine whether there was any silent progression of visual function and structure in the contralateral non-ON (NON) eye. A gender- and age-matched healthy control (HC) group was included to compare the differences in visual function and structure between the patients with NON eyes and the HC group.

RESULTS

Within two weeks of onset, best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA; P = 0.008), mean deviation (MD) of the visual field (VF) (P = 0.001), and peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL; P = 0.019) thickness were significantly worse in the NMOSD-NON patients than those in the HC group, while there were no differences in the pRNFL and the ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) thicknesses and quadrant thicknesses (P > 0.05) of the groups. IDON-NON only showed subclinical damage in VF (P = 0.001) and temporal pRNFL (P = 0.042), while the BCVA, VF, and optic nerve structure (pRNFL, GCIPL) of the MOG-NON patients showed no subclinical damage (P > 0.05). In addition, the one-year follow-up of each NON eye type showed that there was no silent progression in NMOSD-NON, MOG-NON, or IDON-NON. A pairwise comparison of the different types of NON eyes revealed no statistical differences (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Among the patients with unilateral ON, NMOSD-NON and IDON-NON resulted in subclinical damage to the visual function and structure of the contralateral eye within two weeks of onset, whereas MOG-NON did not show any subclinical damage to visual function or structure. Furthermore, these subclinical damages did not show any silent progression during the one-year follow-up period.

Association of Very Early Treatment Initiation With the Risk of Long-term Disability in Patients With a First Demyelinating Event

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Early treatment is associated with better long-term outcomes in patients with a first demyelinating event and early multiple sclerosis (MS). However, magnetic resonance (MR) findings are not usually integrated to construct propensity scores (PSs) when evaluating outcomes. We assessed the association of receiving very early treatment with the risk of long-term disability including an MR score (MRS) in patients with a first demyelinating event.

METHODS

We included 580 patients with a first demyelinating event prospectively collected between 1994 and 2021, who received at least 1 disease-modifying drug (DMD). Patients were classified into tertiles according to the cohort's distribution of the time from the first demyelinating event to the first DMD: first tertile (FT) or very early treatment (6 months; n = 194), second tertile (6.1-16 months, n = 192), and third tertile (TT) (16.1 months, n = 194). A 5-point MRS was built according to the sum of the following indicators: ≥9 brain lesions (1 point); ≥1 infratentorial lesion (1 point); ≥1 spinal cord (SC) lesion (1 point); ≥1 contrast-enhancing (CE) brain lesion (1 point); and ≥1 CE SC lesion (1 point). PS based on covariates and the MRS was computed for each of the outcomes. Inverse PS-weighted Cox and linear regression models assessed the risk of different outcomes between tertile groups. Finally, to confirm the role of MR in treatment decision, we studied the time elapsed from the first demyelinating event to treatment initiation according to the MRS in all patients with radiologic available information, renamed as raw-MRS.

RESULTS

Very early treatment decreased the risk of reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale 3.0 (hazard ratio [HR] 0.55, 95% CI 0.32-0.97), secondary progressive MS (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.19-0.85), and sustained disease progression at 12 months after treatment initiation (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.29-0.84), when compared with patients from the TT group. Patients from the FT group had a lower disability progression rate (β estimate -0.009, 95% CI -0.016 to -0.002) and a lower severe disability measured by the Patient-Determined Disease Step (β estimate -0.52, 95% CI -0.91 to -0.13) than the TT group. Finally, there was a 62.4% reduction in the median time between the first demyelinating event and the first-ever treatment initiation from patients displaying a raw-MRS 1 to patients with a raw-MRS 5.

DISCUSSION

Using PS models with and without MRS, we showed that treatment initiation at very early stages is associated with a reduction in the risk of long-term disability accrual in patients with a first demyelinating event.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class III evidence that earlier treatment of patients with MS presenting with a first demyelinating event is associated with improved clinical outcomes.

Real-world evidence of ocrelizumab-treated relapsing multiple sclerosis cohort shows changes in progression independent of relapse activity mirroring phase 3 trials

Ocrelizumab is a B cell-depleting drug widely used in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and primary-progressive MS. In RRMS, it is becoming increasingly apparent that accumulation of disability not only manifests as relapse-associated worsening (RAW) but also as progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) throughout the disease course. This study's objective was to investigate the role of PIRA in RRMS patients treated with ocrelizumab. We performed a single-center, retrospective, cross-sectional study of clinical data acquired at a German tertiary multiple sclerosis referral center from 2018 to 2022. All patients with RRMS treated with ocrelizumab for at least six months and complete datasets were analyzed. Confirmed disability accumulation (CDA) was defined as a ≥ 12-week confirmed increase from the previous expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score of ≥ 1.0 if the previous EDSS was ≤  5.5 or a ≥ 0.5-point increase if the previous EDSS was > 5.5. PIRA was defined as CDA without relapse since the last EDSS measurement and at least for the preceding 12 weeks. RAW was defined as CDA in an interval of EDSS measurements with ≥ 1 relapses. Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyze the probability of developing PIRA depending on various factors, including disease duration, previous disease-modifying treatments (DMTs), and optical coherence tomography-assessed retinal degeneration parameters. 97 patients were included in the analysis. Mean follow-up time was 29 months (range 6 to 51 months). 23.5% developed CDA under ocrelizumab therapy (n = 23). Of those, the majority developed PIRA (87.0% of CDA, n = 20) rather than RAW (13.0% of CDA, n = 3). An exploratory investigation using Cox proportional hazards ratios revealed two possible factors associated with an increased probability of developing PIRA: a shorter disease duration prior to ocrelizumab (p = 0.02) and a lower number of previous DMTs prior to ocrelizumab (p = 0.04). Our data show that in ocrelizumab-treated RRMS patients, the main driver of disability accumulation is PIRA rather than RAW. Furthermore, these real-world data show remarkable consistency with data from phase 3 randomized controlled trials of ocrelizumab in RRMS, which may increase confidence in translating results from tightly controlled RCTs into the real-world clinical setting.

Prognostic models for predicting clinical disease progression, worsening and activity in people with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system that affects millions of people worldwide. The disease course varies greatly across individuals and many disease-modifying treatments with different safety and efficacy profiles have been developed recently. Prognostic models evaluated and shown to be valid in different settings have the potential to support people with MS and their physicians during the decision-making process for treatment or disease/life management, allow stratified and more precise interpretation of interventional trials, and provide insights into disease mechanisms. Many researchers have turned to prognostic models to help predict clinical outcomes in people with MS; however, to our knowledge, no widely accepted prognostic model for MS is being used in clinical practice yet.

OBJECTIVES

To identify and summarise multivariable prognostic models, and their validation studies for quantifying the risk of clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity in adults with MS.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from January 1996 until July 2021. We also screened the reference lists of included studies and relevant reviews, and references citing the included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all statistically developed multivariable prognostic models aiming to predict clinical disease progression, worsening, and activity, as measured by disability, relapse, conversion to definite MS, conversion to progressive MS, or a composite of these in adult individuals with MS. We also included any studies evaluating the performance of (i.e. validating) these models. There were no restrictions based on language, data source, timing of prognostication, or timing of outcome.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Pairs of review authors independently screened titles/abstracts and full texts, extracted data using a piloted form based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS), assessed risk of bias using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST), and assessed reporting deficiencies based on the checklist items in Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD). The characteristics of the included models and their validations are described narratively. We planned to meta-analyse the discrimination and calibration of models with at least three external validations outside the model development study but no model met this criterion. We summarised between-study heterogeneity narratively but again could not perform the planned meta-regression.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 57 studies, from which we identified 75 model developments, 15 external validations corresponding to only 12 (16%) of the models, and six author-reported validations. Only two models were externally validated multiple times. None of the identified external validations were performed by researchers independent of those that developed the model. The outcome was related to disease progression in 39 (41%), relapses in 8 (8%), conversion to definite MS in 17 (18%), and conversion to progressive MS in 27 (28%) of the 96 models or validations. The disease and treatment-related characteristics of included participants, and definitions of considered predictors and outcome, were highly heterogeneous amongst the studies. Based on the publication year, we observed an increase in the percent of participants on treatment, diversification of the diagnostic criteria used, an increase in consideration of biomarkers or treatment as predictors, and increased use of machine learning methods over time. Usability and reproducibility All identified models contained at least one predictor requiring the skills of a medical specialist for measurement or assessment. Most of the models (44; 59%) contained predictors that require specialist equipment likely to be absent from primary care or standard hospital settings. Over half (52%) of the developed models were not accompanied by model coefficients, tools, or instructions, which hinders their application, independent validation or reproduction. The data used in model developments were made publicly available or reported to be available on request only in a few studies (two and six, respectively). Risk of bias We rated all but one of the model developments or validations as having high overall risk of bias. The main reason for this was the statistical methods used for the development or evaluation of prognostic models; we rated all but two of the included model developments or validations as having high risk of bias in the analysis domain. None of the model developments that were externally validated or these models' external validations had low risk of bias. There were concerns related to applicability of the models to our research question in over one-third (38%) of the models or their validations. Reporting deficiencies Reporting was poor overall and there was no observable increase in the quality of reporting over time. The items that were unclearly reported or not reported at all for most of the included models or validations were related to sample size justification, blinding of outcome assessors, details of the full model or how to obtain predictions from it, amount of missing data, and treatments received by the participants. Reporting of preferred model performance measures of discrimination and calibration was suboptimal.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The current evidence is not sufficient for recommending the use of any of the published prognostic prediction models for people with MS in clinical routine today due to lack of independent external validations. The MS prognostic research community should adhere to the current reporting and methodological guidelines and conduct many more state-of-the-art external validation studies for the existing or newly developed models.

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS.

METHODS

We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS.

RESULTS

Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Improved detection of juxtacortical lesions using highly accelerated double inversion-recovery MRI in patients with multiple sclerosis

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to compare a highly-accelerated double inversion recovery (fast-DIR) sequence using a recent parallel imaging technique (CAIPIRINHA) with a conventional DIR (conv-DIR) sequence for image quality and the detection of juxtacortical and infratentorial multiple sclerosis (MS) lesions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 38 patients with MS who underwent brain MRI at 3 T between 2020 and 2021 were included. There were 27 women and 12 men with a mean age of 40 ± 12.8 (standard deviation) years (range: 20-59 years). All patients underwent conv-DIR sequence and fast-DIR sequence. Fast-DIR was obtained with a T2-preparation module to improve contrast and an iterative denoising algorithm to compensate noise enhancement. Two blinded readers reported the number of juxtacortical and infratentorial MS lesions for fast-DIR and conv-DIR, confirmed by further consensus reading that was used as the standard of reference. Image quality and contrast were evaluated for fast-DIR and conv-DIR sequences. Comparisons between fast-DIR and conv-DIR sequences were performed using Wilcoxon test and Lin concordance correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight patients were analyzed. Fast-DIR imaging allowed detection of 289 juxtacortical lesions vs. 238 with conv-DIR, corresponding to a significant improved detection rate with fast-DIR (P < 0.001). Conversely, 117 infratentorial lesions were detected with conv-DIR sequence vs. 80 with fast-DIR sequence (P < 0.001). Inter-observer agreement for lesion detection with fast-DIR and conv-DIR was very high (Lin concordance correlation coefficient ranging between 0.86 and 0.96).

CONCLUSION

Fast-DIR improves the detection of juxtacortical MS lesions, but is limited for the detection of infratentorial MS lesions.

Higher frequency of Human herpesvirus-6 (HHV-6) viral DNA simultaneously with low frequency of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) viral DNA in a cohort of multiple sclerosis patients from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system (CNS). The etiology of MS is not well understood, but it's likely one of the genetic and environmental factors. Approximately 85% of patients have relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), while 10-15% have primary progressive MS (PPMS). Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and Human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6), members of the human Herpesviridae family, are strong candidates for representing the macroenvironmental factors associated with MS) pathogenesis. Antigenic mimicry of EBV involving B-cells has been implicate in MS risk factors and concomitance of EBV and HHV-6 latent infection has been associated to inflammatory MS cascade. To verify the possible role of EBV and HHV-6 as triggering or aggravating factors in RRMS and PPMS, we compare their frequency in blood samples collected from 166 MS patients. The presence of herpes DNA was searched by real-time PCR (qPCR). The frequency of EBV and HHV-6 in MS patients were 1.8% (3/166) and 8.9% (14/166), respectively. Among the positive patients, 100% (3/3) EBV and 85.8% (12/14) HHV-6 are RRMS and 14.4% (2/14) HHV-6 are PPMS. Detection of EBV was 1.2% (2/166) and HHV-6 was 0.6% (1/166) in blood donors. About clinical phenotype of these patients, incomplete multifocal myelitis, and optic neuritis were the main CNS manifestations. These are the first data about concomitant infection of these viruses in MS patients from Brazil. Up to date, our findings confirm a higher prevalence in female with MS and a high frequency of EBV and HHV-6 in RRMS patients.

Predictive value of brain atrophy, serum biomarkers and information processing speed for early disease progression in multiple sclerosis

INTRODUCTION

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune-mediated demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS). A clinical presentation of the disease is highly differentiated even from the earliest stages of the disease. The application of stratifying tests in clinical practice would allow for improving clinical decision-making including a proper assessment of treatment benefit/risk balance.

METHODS

This prospective study included patients with MS diagnosed up to 1 year before recruitment. We analyzed serum biomarkers such as CXCL13, CHI3L1, OPN, IL-6, and GFAP and neurofilament light chains (NfLs); brain MRI parameters of linear atrophy such as bicaudate ratio (BCR), third ventricle width (TVW); and information processing speed were measured using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) during the 2 years follow-up.

RESULTS

The study included a total of 50 patients recruited shortly after the diagnosis of MS diagnosis (median 0 months; range 0-11 months), and the mean time of observation was 28 months (SD = 4.75). We observed a statistically significant increase in the EDSS score (Wilcoxon test: Z = 3.06, p = 0.002), BCR (Wilcoxon test: Z = 4.66, p < 0.001), and TVW (Wilcoxon test: Z = 2.84, p = 0.005) after 2 years of disease. Patients who had a significantly higher baseline level of NfL suffered from a more severe disease course as per the EDSS score (Mann-Whitney U-test: U = 107, Z = -2,74, p = 0.006) and presence of relapse (Mann-Whitney U-test: U = 188, Z = -2.01, p = 0.044). In the logistic regression model, none of the parameters was a significant predictor for the achieving of no evidence of disease activity status (NEDA). In the model considering all assessed parameters, only the level of NfL had a significant impact on disease progression, measured as the increase in EDSS (logistic regression: β = 0.002, p = 0.017).

CONCLUSION

We confirmed that NfL levels in serum are associated with more active disease. Moreover, we found that TVW at the time of diagnosis was associated with an impairment in cognitive function measured by information processing speed at the end of the 2-year observation. The inclusion of serum NfL and TVW assessment early in the disease may be a good predictor of disease progression independent of NEDA.

Imaging immunomodulatory treatment responses in a multiple sclerosis mouse model using hyperpolarized 13C metabolic MRI

BACKGROUND

In recent years, the ability of conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), including T₁ contrast-enhanced (CE) MRI, to monitor high-efficacy therapies and predict long-term disability in multiple sclerosis (MS) has been challenged. Therefore, non-invasive methods to improve MS lesions detection and monitor therapy response are needed.

METHODS

We studied the combined cuprizone and experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (CPZ-EAE) mouse model of MS, which presents inflammatory-mediated demyelinated lesions in the central nervous system as commonly seen in MS patients. Using hyperpolarized ¹³C MR spectroscopy (MRS) metabolic imaging, we measured cerebral metabolic fluxes in control, CPZ-EAE and CPZ-EAE mice treated with two clinically-relevant therapies, namely fingolimod and dimethyl fumarate. We also acquired conventional T₁ CE MRI to detect active lesions, and performed ex vivo measurements of enzyme activities and immunofluorescence analyses of brain tissue. Last, we evaluated associations between imaging and ex vivo parameters.

RESULTS

We show that hyperpolarized [1-¹³C]pyruvate conversion to lactate is increased in the brain of untreated CPZ-EAE mice when compared to the control, reflecting immune cell activation. We further demonstrate that this metabolic conversion is significantly decreased in response to the two treatments. This reduction can be explained by increased pyruvate dehydrogenase activity and a decrease in immune cells. Importantly, we show that hyperpolarized ¹³C MRS detects dimethyl fumarate therapy, whereas conventional T₁ CE MRI cannot.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, hyperpolarized MRS metabolic imaging of [1-¹³C]pyruvate detects immunological responses to disease-modifying therapies in MS. This technique is complementary to conventional MRI and provides unique information on neuroinflammation and its modulation.

Association between vitamin D deficiency and multiple sclerosis- MRI significance: A scoping review

Background/Objective

Multiple Sclerosis is a common demyelinating disease of the central nervous system. Several studies suggested a link between vitamin D deficiency and multiple sclerosis disease activity, which can be evaluated by magnetic resonance imaging. Thereby, the main objective of the following scoping review is to summarize the magnetic resonance imaging findings assessing the probable effects of vitamin D on MS disease activity.

Methodology

PRISMA checklist for systematic reviews and meta-analyses was employed to structure this review. Literature was searched for observational and clinical studies tackling the given matter using several search engines including PubMed, CORE, and Embase. Data was extracted in a systematic manner, and the articles meeting the inclusion criteria were quality-assessed by Jadad scale for randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and Newcastle-Ottawa scale for observational studies.

Results

A total of 35 articles were included. Twenty-one (60%) studies noted a statistically significant association between vitamin D and Multiple Sclerosis MRI-detected disease activity. MRI-detected features involved lower contrast-enhancing T1 lesions, lower hyperintense T2 lesions, and a decrease in lesions volume. On the other hand, 40% (14 articles) of the articles did not detect any significant effect of vitamin D on Multiple Sclerosis disease activity. Due to the heterogeneity of the studies involved, meta-analysis was not employed in the given review.

Discussion/conclusion

There was an abundance in the number of research studies investigating the relationship between vitamin D and Multiple Sclerosis while highlighting the significant role of MRI in assessing the activity of the disease. Numerous studies found that higher serum vitamin D levels are associated with decreased new active cortical and subcortical lesions and lower lesions volume. These findings highlight the importance of imaging modalities in the various aspects of neurological diseases and encourage further research to focus on the preventive effects of vitamin D on MS patients.

Health related quality of life in the domain of physical activity predicts confirmed disability progression in people with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis

INTRODUCTION

The diagnosis of the progression phase of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is still retrospective and based on the objectivation of clinical disability accumulation.

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether the Patient Reported Outcomes Measures (PROMs) scores predict the occurrence of disease progression within three years of follow-up.

METHODS

Observational prospective multicenter study. Stable Relapsing-Remitting MS (RRMS) patients were enrolled. At enrollment, patients completed the following PROMs: Beck Depression Inventory- II, The Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire for Medications, Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36- Item (SF36), Fatigue Severity Scale. EDSS was assessed at enrollment and three years later. The outcome measure was defined as the occurrence of confirmed disability progression (CDP) within three years of follow-up. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were performed to study the association between the final score of each test and the outcome.

RESULTS

SF36-Physical Functioning (SF36-PF) was the only independent variable associated with the outcome. The ROC curve analysis determined a score of 77.5 at SF36-PF as the cut-off point identifying patients experiencing CDP within three years of follow-up [AUC: 0.66 (95% CI: 0.56-0.75)].

CONCLUSIONS

RRMS patients scoring higher (>77.5) at SF36-PF subscale have a higher likelihood to experience CDP within the next three years.

The prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis over the past 20 years in northern Japan

OBJECTIVES

The prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in East Asia is thought to be lower than in Western countries. Globally, there is a trend of increasing MS prevalence. We investigated the changes in the prevalence and clinical phenotype of MS in the Tokachi province of Hokkaido in northern Japan, from 2001 to 2021.

METHODS

Data processing sheets were sent to all related institutions inside and outside the Tokachi area of Hokkaido island in Japan and were collected from April to May 2021. The prevalence according to the Poser's diagnostic criteria for MS was determined on March 31, 2021.

RESULTS

In 2021, the crude MS prevalence in northern Japan was 22.4/100,000 (95% confidence interval, 17.6-28.0). The prevalences of MS standardized by the Japanese national population in 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2021 were 6.9, 11.5, 15.3, 18.5, and 23.3, respectively. The female/male ratio was 4.0 in 2021, increased from 2.6 in 2001. We checked the prevalence using the 2017 revised McDonald criteria, and found only additional male patient who had not fulfilled Poser's criteria. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of MS per 100,000 individuals increased from 0.09 in 1980-1984 to 0.99 in 2005-2009; since then, it has remained stable. The proportions of primary-progressive, relapsing-remitting, and secondary-progressive MS types in 2021 were 3%, 82%, and 15%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrated a consistent increase in the prevalence of MS among the northern Japanese over 20 years, particularly in females, and consistently lower rates of progressive MS in northern Japan than elsewhere in the world.

Integration of epigenetic and genetic profiles identifies multiple sclerosis disease-critical cell types and genes

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) successfully identified multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility variants. Despite this notable progress, understanding the biological context of these associations remains challenging, due in part to the complexity of linking GWAS results to causative genes and cell types. Here, we aimed to address this gap by integrating GWAS data with single-cell and bulk chromatin accessibility data and histone modification profiles from immune and nervous systems. MS-GWAS associations are significantly enriched in regulatory regions of microglia and peripheral immune cell subtypes, especially B cells and monocytes. Cell-specific polygenic risk scores were developed to examine the cumulative impact of the susceptibility genes on MS risk and clinical phenotypes, showing significant associations with risk and brain white matter volume. The findings reveal enrichment of GWAS signals in B cell and monocyte/microglial cell-types, consistent with the known pathology and presumed targets of effective MS therapeutics.

Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in People With Active Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Uncontrolled evidence suggests that autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) can be effective in people with active secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). In this study, we compared the effect of AHSCT with that of other anti-inflammatory disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) on long-term disability worsening in active SPMS.

METHODS

We collected data from the Italian Bone Marrow Transplantation Study Group and the Italian Multiple Sclerosis Register. Patients were considered eligible if treatment had been started after the diagnosis of SPMS. Disability worsening was assessed by the cumulative proportion of patients with a 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP) according to the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score. Key secondary endpoints were the EDSS time trend after treatment start and the prevalence of disability improvement over time. Time to first CDP was assessed by means of proportional hazard Cox regression models. A linear mixed model with a time × treatment group interaction was used to assess the longitudinal EDSS time trends. Prevalence of improvement was estimated using a modified Kaplan-Meier estimator and compared between groups by bootstrapping the area under the curve.

RESULTS

Seventy-nine AHSCT-treated patients and 1975 patients treated with other DMTs (beta interferons, azathioprine, glatiramer-acetate, mitoxantrone, fingolimod, natalizumab, methotrexate, teriflunomide, cyclophosphamide, dimethyl fumarate, and alemtuzumab) were matched to reduce treatment selection bias using propensity score and overlap weighting approaches. Time to first CDP was significantly longer in transplanted patients (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.31-0.81; p = 0.005), with 61.7% of transplanted patients free from CPD at 5 years. Accordingly, EDSS time trend over 10 years was higher in patients treated with other DMTs than in AHSCT-treated patients (+0.157 EDSS points per year compared with -0.013 EDSS points per year; interaction p < 0.001). Patients who underwent AHSCT were more likely to experience a sustained disability improvement: 34.7% of patients maintained an improvement (a lower EDSS than baseline) 3 years after transplant vs 4.6% of patients treated by other DMTs (p < 0.001).

DISCUSSION

The use of AHSCT in people with active SPMS is associated with a slowing of disability progression and a higher likelihood of disability improvement compared with standard immunotherapy.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class III evidence that autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplants prolonged the time to CDP compared with other DMTs.

Remote Observational Research for Multiple Sclerosis: A Natural Experiment

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Prospective, deeply phenotyped research cohorts monitoring individuals with chronic neurologic conditions, such as multiple sclerosis (MS), depend on continued participant engagement. The COVID-19 pandemic restricted in-clinic research activities, threatening this longitudinal engagement, but also forced adoption of televideo-enabled care. This offered a natural experiment in which to analyze key dimensions of remote research: (1) comparison of remote vs in-clinic visit costs from multiple perspectives and (2) comparison of the remote with in-clinic measures in cross-sectional and longitudinal disability evaluations.

METHODS

Between March 2020 and December 2021, 207 MS cohort participants underwent hybrid in-clinic and virtual research visits; 96 contributed 100 "matched visits," that is, in-clinic (Neurostatus-Expanded Disability Status Scale [NS-EDSS]) and remote (televideo-enabled EDSS [tele-EDSS]; electronic patient-reported EDSS [ePR-EDSS]) evaluations. Clinical, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics of participants were collected.

RESULTS

The costs of remote visits were lower than in-clinic visits for research investigators (facilities, personnel, parking, participant compensation) but also for participants (travel, caregiver time) and carbon footprint (p < 0.05 for each). Median cohort EDSS was similar between the 3 modalities (NS-EDSS: 2, tele-EDSS: 1.5, ePR-EDSS: 2, range 0.6.5); the remote evaluations were each noninferior to the NS-EDSS within ±0.5 EDSS point (TOST for noninferiority, p < 0.01 for each). Furthermore, year to year, the % of participants with worsening/stable/improved EDSS scores was similar, whether each annual evaluation used NS-EDSS or whether it switched from NS-EDSS to tele-EDSS.

DISCUSSION

Altogether, the current findings suggest that remote evaluations can reduce the costs of research participation for patients, while providing a reasonable evaluation of disability trajectory longitudinally. This could inform the design of remote research that is more inclusive of diverse participants.

Association of daily physical activity with brain volumes and cervical spinal cord areas in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Remote activity monitoring has the potential to evaluate real-world, motor function, and disability at home. The relationships of daily physical activity with spinal cord white matter and gray matter (GM) areas, multiple sclerosis (MS) disability and leg function, are unknown.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the association of structural central nervous system pathology with ambulatory disability.

METHODS

Fifty adults with progressive or relapsing MS with motor disability who could walk >2 minutes were assessed using clinician-evaluated, patient-reported outcomes, and quantitative brain and spinal cord magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures. Fitbit Flex2, worn on the non-dominant wrist, remotely assessed activity over 30 days. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess correlations between physical activity and other disability metrics.

RESULTS

Mean age was 53.3 years and median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) was 4.0. Average daily step counts (STEPS) were highly correlated with EDSS and walking measures. Greater STEPS were significantly correlated with greater C2-C3 spinal cord GM areas (ρ = 0.39, p = 0.04), total cord area (TCA; ρ = 0.35, p = 0.04), and cortical GM volume (ρ = 0.32, p = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

These results provide preliminary evidence that spinal cord GM area is a neuroanatomical substrate associated with STEPS. STEPS could serve as a proxy to alert clinicians and researchers to possible changes in structural nervous system pathology.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Ocrelizumab for the Treatment of Relapsing and Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis in Portugal

OBJECTIVES

Ocrelizumab demonstrated significant clinical benefit for the treatment of relapsing (RMS) and primary progressive (PPMS) multiple sclerosis (MS), an incurable disease characterized by disability progression. This study evaluated the clinical and economic impact of ocrelizumab relative to current clinical practice, including other disease-modifying therapies (DMT), available in Portugal.

METHODS

Markov models for MS were adapted to estimate the impact of ocrelizumab across three patient populations: treatment-naïve RMS, previously treated RMS, and PPMS. Health states were defined according to the Expanded Disability Status Scale. For RMS, the model further captured the occurrence of relapses and progression to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). A lifetime time-horizon and Portuguese societal perspective were adopted.

RESULTS

For RMS patients, ocrelizumab was estimated to maximize the expected time (years) without progression to SPMS (10.50) relative to natalizumab (10.10), dimethyl fumarate (8.64), teriflunomide (8.39), fingolimod (8.38), interferon β-1a (8.33) and glatiramer acetate (8.18). As the most effective option, with quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains between 0.3 and 1.2, ocrelizumab was found to be cost-saving relative to natalizumab and fingolimod, and presented incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) below €16,720/QALY relative to the remaining DMT. For PPMS patients, the ICER of ocrelizumab versus best supportive care was estimated at €78,858/QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Ocrelizumab provides important health benefits for RMS and PPMS patients, comparing favourably with other widely used therapies. In RMS, ocrelizumab was revealed to be either cost-saving or have costs-per-QALY likely below commonly accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds. In PPMS, ocrelizumab fills a clear clinical gap in the current clinical practice. Overall, ocrelizumab is expected to provide good value for money in addressing the need of MS patients.

Relationship between paramagnetic rim lesions and slowly expanding lesions in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers for chronic active lesions in MS include slowly expanding lesions (SELs) and paramagnetic rim lesions (PRLs).

OBJECTIVES

To identify the relationship between SELs and PRLs in MS, and their association with disability.

METHODS

61 people with MS (pwMS) followed retrospectively with MRI including baseline susceptibility-weighted imaging, and longitudinal T1 and T2-weighted scans. SELs were computed using deformation field maps; PRLs were visually identified. Mixed-effects models assessed differences in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score changes between the group defined by the presence of SELs and or PRLs.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 3.2 years. At baseline, out of 1492 lesions, 616 were classified as SELs, and 80 as PRLs. 92% of patients had ⩾ 1 SEL, 56% had ⩾ 1 PRL, while both were found in 51%. SELs compared to non-SELs were more likely to also be PRLs (7% vs. 4%, p = 0.027). PRL counts positively correlated with SEL counts (ρ= 0.28, p = 0.03). SEL + PRL + patients had greater increases in EDSS over time (beta = 0.15/year, 95% confidence interval (0.04, 0.27), p = 0.009) than SEL+PRL-patients.

CONCLUSION

SELs are more numerous than PRLs in pwMS. Compared with either SELs or PRLs found in isolation, their joint occurrence was associated with greater clinical progression.

Neuropsychiatric Status of Patients With Multiple Sclerosis Across Disease Duration Intervals

OBJECTIVES

The neuropsychiatric sequelae of multiple sclerosis (MS) are important predictors of morbidity and mortality. The authors examined how symptoms of depression, anxiety, fatigue, subjective cognitive impairment, and objective cognitive dysfunction varied with disease duration. They also explored changes in the use of disease-modifying therapies, psychotropic medications, and psychotherapies in relation to disease duration.

METHODS

A retrospective sample of 464 people with MS was stratified into three groups based on disease duration: <5 years (N=129), 5-10 years (N=101), and >10 years (N=234). Symptoms of depression and anxiety were recorded with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS); fatigue, with the five-item version of the Modified Fatigue Impact Scale (MFIS-5); subjective cognitive impairment, with the five-item version of the Perceived Deficits Questionnaire (PDQ-5); and cognition, with the Minimal Assessment of Cognitive Function in MS (MACFIMS).

RESULTS

There were between-group differences in anxiety symptoms (p<0.01) and degree of cognitive impairment (p=0.03), but there were no differences in depressive symptoms, fatigue, or subjective cognitive difficulties. Anxiety was higher during the first 5 years after diagnosis, and cognitive dysfunction was higher when assessed more than 10 years after diagnosis. With longer disease duration, a greater proportion of participants received psychotropic medications (p<0.01), and lower proportions received disease-modifying therapies (p<0.01) or psychotherapies (p<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings indicated that rates of some neuropsychiatric symptoms, such as anxiety and cognitive dysfunction, may shift with disease duration, whereas other symptoms, such as fatigue and depression, may not. These findings highlight the importance of closely monitoring the mental state of people with MS over time.

Polygenic risk score association with multiple sclerosis susceptibility and phenotype in Europeans

Polygenic inheritance plays a pivotal role in driving multiple sclerosis susceptibility, an inflammatory demyelinating disease of the CNS. We developed polygenic risk scores (PRS) of multiple sclerosis and assessed associations with both disease status and severity in cohorts of European descent. The largest genome-wide association dataset for multiple sclerosis to date (n = 41 505) was leveraged to generate PRS scores, serving as an informative susceptibility marker, tested in two independent datasets, UK Biobank [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72-0.74, P = 6.41 × 10-146] and Kaiser Permanente in Northern California (KPNC, AUC = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.76-0.82, P = 1.5 × 10-53). Individuals within the top 10% of PRS were at higher than 5-fold increased risk in UK Biobank (95% CI: 4.7-6, P = 2.8 × 10-45) and 15-fold higher risk in KPNC (95% CI: 10.4-24, P = 3.7 × 10-11), relative to the median decile. The cumulative absolute risk of developing multiple sclerosis from age 20 onwards was significantly higher in genetically predisposed individuals according to PRS. Furthermore, inclusion of PRS in clinical risk models increased the risk discrimination by 13% to 26% over models based only on conventional risk factors in UK Biobank and KPNC, respectively. Stratifying disease risk by gene sets representative of curated cellular signalling cascades, nominated promising genetic candidate programmes for functional characterization. These pathways include inflammatory signalling mediation, response to viral infection, oxidative damage, RNA polymerase transcription, and epigenetic regulation of gene expression to be among significant contributors to multiple sclerosis susceptibility. This study also indicates that PRS is a useful measure for estimating susceptibility within related individuals in multicase families. We show a significant association of genetic predisposition with thalamic atrophy within 10 years of disease progression in the UCSF-EPIC cohort (P < 0.001), consistent with a partial overlap between the genetics of susceptibility and end-organ tissue injury. Mendelian randomization analysis suggested an effect of multiple sclerosis susceptibility on thalamic volume, which was further indicated to be through horizontal pleiotropy rather than a causal effect. In summary, this study indicates important, replicable associations of PRS with enhanced risk assessment and radiographic outcomes of tissue injury, potentially informing targeted screening and prevention strategies.

The uncertainty period preceding the clinical defined SPMS diagnosis and the applicability of objective classifiers - A Danish single center study

BACKGROUND

The clinical transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) to secondary progressive MS (SPMS) is often related to a period of diagnostic uncertainty delaying diagnosis. With emerging treatment options for SPMS how to identify RRMS patients at risk of SPMS and when to assign a SPMS diagnosis has become a matter of growing clinical concern. This study aimed to determine the period of diagnostic uncertainty among Danish MS patients. Secondly, this study examined the performance of two objective classifiers in a longitudinal setting regarding their ability to shorten the period of diagnostic uncertainty.

METHODS

By using the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry, we identified all patients linked to Rigshospitalet with clinically assigned SPMS from 2010 to 2021. We reviewed all patient records and identified the first mentioned sign of progression (FMP). The time between the dates of FMP and clinically assigned SPMS was defined as the period of diagnostic uncertainty. Secondly, we applied two objective classifiers (the Karolinska Decision tree and the MSBase criteria) to generate suggested transition dates and compared them to the ones obtain from the patient records. Detailed descriptions of the population were made at all mentioned timepoints.

RESULTS

In total 138 patients were included. We found a median period of diagnostic uncertainty of 2.12 years. The objective classifiers generated a median suggested transition date 3.44 and 4.48 years earlier than the date of clinically assigned SPMS, but they only provided an earlier SPMS transition date in 50.72% and 55.80% of cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings emphasize the uncertainty related to the transition from RRMS to SPMS illustrating the need of an improved diagnostic approach. Objective classifiers might have the potential to help reduce the period of diagnostic uncertainty in the future, but in their current form they do not perform satisfactorily enough to solve all difficulties related to detecting SPMS-transition.