Nomograms for preoperative prediction of axillary nodal status in breast cancer

Characteristics and risk factors of axillary lymph node metastasis of microinvasive breast cancer

PURPOSE

To select patients who would benefit most from sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) by investigating the characteristics and risk factors of axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) in microinvasive breast cancer (MIBC).

METHODS

This retrospective study included 1688 patients with MIBC who underwent breast surgery with axillary staging at the Asan Medical Center from 1995 to 2020.

RESULTS

Most patients underwent SLNB alone (83.5%). Seventy (4.1%) patients were node-positive, and the majority had positive lymph nodes < 10 mm, with micro-metastases occurring frequently (n = 37; 55%). Node-positive patients underwent total mastectomy and axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) more than breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and SLNB compared with node-negative patients (p < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, independent predictors of ALNM included young age [odds ratio (OR) 0.959; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.927-0.993; p = 0.019], ALND (OR 11.486; 95% CI 5.767-22.877; p < 0.001), number of lymph nodes harvested (≥ 5) (OR 3.184; 95% CI 1.555-6.522; p < 0.001), lymphovascular invasion (OR 6.831; 95% CI 2.386-19.557; p < 0.001), presence of multiple microinvasion foci (OR 2.771; 95% CI 1.329-5.779; p = 0.007), prominent lymph nodes in preoperative imaging (OR 2.675; 95% CI 1.362-5.253; p = 0.004), and hormone receptor positivity (OR 2.491; 95% CI 1.230-5.046; p = 0.011).

CONCLUSION

Low ALNM rate (4.1%) suggests that routine SLNB for patients with MIBC is unnecessary but can be valuable for patients with specific risk factors. Ongoing trials for omitting SLNB in early breast cancer, and further subanalyses focusing on rare populations with MIBC are necessary.

Non-invasive prediction model of axillary lymph node status in patients with early-stage breast cancer: a feasibility study based on dynamic contrast-enhanced-MRI radiomics

OBJECTIVES

Accurate axillary evaluation plays an important role in prognosis and treatment planning for breast cancer. This study aimed to develop and validate a dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-MRI-based radiomics model for preoperative evaluation of axillary lymph node (ALN) status in early-stage breast cancer.

METHODS

A total of 410 patients with pathologically confirmed early-stage invasive breast cancer (training cohort, N = 286; validation cohort, N = 124) from June 2018 to August 2022 were retrospectively recruited. Radiomics features were derived from the second phase of DCE-MRI images for each patient. ALN status-related features were obtained, and a radiomics signature was constructed using SelectKBest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. Logistic regression was applied to build a combined model and corresponding nomogram incorporating the radiomics score (Rad-score) with clinical predictors. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration curves.

RESULTS

Fourteen radiomic features were selected to construct the radiomics signature. The Rad-score, MRI-reported ALN status, BI-RADS category, and tumour size were independent predictors of ALN status and were incorporated into the combined model. The nomogram showed good calibration and favourable performance for discriminating metastatic ALNs (N + (≥1)) from non-metastatic ALNs (N0) and metastatic ALNs with heavy burden (N + (≥3)) from low burden (N + (1-2)), with the area under the ROC curve values of 0.877 and 0.879 in the training cohort and 0.859 and 0.881 in the validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The DCE-MRI-based radiomics nomogram could serve as a potential non-invasive technique for accurate preoperative evaluation of ALN burden, thereby assisting physicians in the personalized axillary treatment for early-stage breast cancer patients.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

This study developed a potential surrogate of preoperative accurate evaluation of ALN status, which is non-invasive and easy-to-use.

Association between postoperative pathological results and non-sentinel nodal metastasis in breast cancer patients with sentinel lymph node-positive breast cancer

OBJECTIVE

For patients with 1-2 positive sentinel lymph nodes (SLN) identified by biopsy, the necessity of axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) remains a matter of debate. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the association between postoperative pathological factors and non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastases in Chinese patients diagnosed with sentinel node-positive breast cancer.

METHODS

This research involved a total of 280 individuals with SLN-positive breast cancer. The relationship between postoperative pathological variables and non-sentinel lymph node metastases was scrutinized using univariate, multivariate, and stratified analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 280 patients with a complete count of SLN positives, 126 (45.0%) exhibited NSLN metastasis. Within this group, 45 cases (35.71%) had 1 SLN positive, while 81 cases (64.29%) demonstrated more than 1 SLN positive. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that HER2 expression status (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.10-4.60, P = 0.0269), LVI (OR 6.08, 95% CI 3.31-11.14, P < 0.0001), and the number of positive SLNs (OR 4.17, 95% CI 2.35-7.42, P < 0.0001) were positively correlated with NSLNM.

CONCLUSION

In our investigation, the risk variables for NSLN metastasis included LVI, HER2 expression, and the quantity of positive sentinel lymph nodes. However, further validation is imperative, including this institution, distinct institutions, and diverse patient populations.

Lymphovascular invasion is a significant risk factor for non-sentinel nodal metastasis in breast cancer patients with sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive breast cancer: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

A connection between lymphovascular invasion and axillary lymph node metastases in breast cancer has been observed, but the findings are inconsistent and primarily based on research in Western populations. We investigated the association between lymphovascular invasion and non-sentinel lymph node (non-SLN) metastasis in breast cancer patients with sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis in western China.

METHODS

This study comprised 280 breast cancer patients who tested positive for SLN through biopsy and subsequently underwent axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) at The People's Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region between March 2013 and July 2022. We used multivariate logistic regression analyses to assess the association between clinicopathological characteristics and non-SLN metastasis. Additionally, we conducted further stratified analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 280 patients with positive SLN, only 126 (45%) exhibited non-SLN metastasis. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that lymphovascular invasion was an independent risk factor for non-SLN in breast cancer patients with SLN metastasis (OR = 6.11; 95% CI, 3.62-10.32, p < 0.05). The stratified analysis yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

In individuals with invasive breast cancer and 1-2 positive sentinel lymph nodes, lymphovascular invasion is the sole risk factor for non-SLN metastases. This finding aids surgeons and oncologists in devising a plan for local axillary treatment, preventing both over- and undertreatment.

Noninvasive Staging of Lymph Node Status in Breast Cancer Using Machine Learning: External Validation and Further Model Development

BACKGROUND

Most patients diagnosed with breast cancer present with a node-negative disease. Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is routinely used for axillary staging, leaving patients with healthy axillary lymph nodes without therapeutic effects but at risk of morbidities from the intervention. Numerous studies have developed nodal status prediction models for noninvasive axillary staging using postoperative data or imaging features that are not part of the diagnostic workup. Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) is a top-ranked predictor of nodal metastasis; however, its preoperative assessment is challenging.

OBJECTIVE

This paper aimed to externally validate a multilayer perceptron (MLP) model for noninvasive lymph node staging (NILS) in a large population-based cohort (n=18,633) and develop a new MLP in the same cohort. Data were extracted from the Swedish National Quality Register for Breast Cancer (NKBC, 2014-2017), comprising only routinely and preoperatively available documented clinicopathological variables. A secondary aim was to develop and validate an LVI MLP for imputation of missing LVI status to increase the preoperative feasibility of the original NILS model.

METHODS

Three nonoverlapping cohorts were used for model development and validation. A total of 4 MLPs for nodal status and 1 LVI MLP were developed using 11 to 12 routinely available predictors. Three nodal status models were used to account for the different availabilities of LVI status in the cohorts and external validation in NKBC. The fourth nodal status model was developed for 80% (14,906/18,663) of NKBC cases and validated in the remaining 20% (3727/18,663). Three alternatives for imputation of LVI status were compared. The discriminatory capacity was evaluated using the validation area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) in 3 of the nodal status models. The clinical feasibility of the models was evaluated using calibration and decision curve analyses.

RESULTS

External validation of the original NILS model was performed in NKBC (AUC 0.699, 95% CI 0.690-0.708) with good calibration and the potential of sparing 16% of patients with node-negative disease from SLNB. The LVI model was externally validated (AUC 0.747, 95% CI 0.694-0.799) with good calibration but did not improve the discriminatory performance of the nodal status models. A new nodal status model was developed in NKBC without information on LVI (AUC 0.709, 95% CI: 0.688-0.729), with excellent calibration in the holdout internal validation cohort, resulting in the potential omission of 24% of patients from unnecessary SLNBs.

CONCLUSIONS

The NILS model was externally validated in NKBC, where the imputation of LVI status did not improve the model's discriminatory performance. A new nodal status model demonstrated the feasibility of using register data comprising only the variables available in the preoperative setting for NILS using machine learning. Future steps include ongoing preoperative validation of the NILS model and extending the model with, for example, mammography images.

Establishment and Validation of a Predictive Model for Post-Treatment Anxiety Based on Patient Attributes and Pre-Treatment Anxiety Scores

Objective

In this study, we aim to establish and evaluate a predictive model for post-treatment anxiety state based on basic patient attributes and pre-treatment SAS scores, with the expectation that this model will guide clinical precision intervention.

Methods

Data were collected from 606 patients with breast cancer who underwent surgery at our hospital between January 1, 2015 and December 30, 2018 and 144 newly diagnosed patients with breast cancer who were admitted between June 1, 2019 and December 30, 2019, for a total of 750 patients with breast cancer. The relationship between SAS_A scores and prognosis was verified by analyzing patient baseline characteristics, follow-up data, pre-treatment self-rating anxiety scale (SAS) scores, and SAS_A scores in follow-up period after the end of treatment. A risk prediction model was developed in view of the SAS_A scores, which was then screened, validated, and simplified by scoring, with a nomogram plotted.

Results

The SAS_A score can be utilized to differentiate prognosis. In K-M analysis, the high SAS_A score group had a significantly poorer progression-free survival rate than the low score group, p-value < 0.0001. Through model feature selection and clinical analysis, all variables were finally incorporated to establish a predictive model with a ROC AUC of 0.721 (0.637-0.805) for the validation set and external data, and an AUC of 0.810 (0.719-0.902) for external data, demonstrating good predictive performance. Calibration curves and probability distribution maps were constructed. DCA and CIC analyses demonstrated that model intervention could boost clinical benefits more effectively than intervention for all patients.

Conclusion

Using a predictive model to guide clinical management for anxiety in breast cancer patients is feasible, but additional research is required.

A multi-dimensional nomogram to predict non-sentinel lymph node metastases in T1-2HR+ breast cancer

Background

Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) could be omitted for T1-2 breast cancer patients with 1-2 positive sentinel lymph node (SLN) after breast-conserving surgery when radiation is planned. However, whether ALND could be replaced by radiation in patients with 1-3 positive SLNs when no more non-SLN metastasis were observed after mastectomy are still controversial. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the possibility of non-SLN metastasis in T1-2 and hormone receptor (HR) positive breast cancer patients with 1-3 positive SLNs after mastectomy.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed and analyzed the data including the basic information, preoperative sonographic characteristics, and pathological features in breast cancer patients with 1-3 positive SLNs in our medical center between Jan 2016 and Dec 2021. The Chi-square, Fisher's exact test, and t test were used for comparison of categorical and qualitative variables among patients with or without non-SLN metastasis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the risk factors for non-SLN metastasis. These predictors were used to build the nomogram. The C-index and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to assess the accuracy of the model.

Results

A total of 49 in 107 (45.8%) patients were identified with non-SLN metastasis. In multivariate analysis, four variables including younger age, lower estrogen receptor (ER) expression, higher histological score, and cortex thickening of the lymph nodes were determined to be significantly associated with non-SLN metastasis. An individualized nomogram was consequently established with a favorable C-index of 0.822 and verified via two internal validation cohorts.

Conclusions

The current study developed a nomogram predicting non-SLN metastasis for T1-2 and HR+ breast cancer with 1-3 positive SLNs after mastectomy and found that patients in the high-risk group exhibited worse relapse-free survival. The novel nomogram may further help surgeons to determine whether ALND could be omitted when 1-3 positive SLNs were observed in T1-2 and HR+ breast cancer patients.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Axillary Lymph Node Metastasis in Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND

Axillary lymph node (ALN) status is a key prognosis indicator for breast cancer patients. To develop an effective tool for predicting axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer, a nomogram was established based on mRNA expression data and clinicopathological characteristics.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A 1062 breast cancer patients with mRNA data and clinical information were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We first analyzed the differentially expression genes (DEGs) between ALN positive and ALN negative patients. Then, logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression, and backward stepwise regression were performed to select candidate mRNA biomarkers. The mRNA signature was constructed by the mRNA biomarkers and corresponding Lasso coefficients. The key clinical factors were obtained by Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney U test or Pearson's χ² test. Finally, the nomogram for predicting axillary lymph node metastasis was developed and evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and receptor operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Furthermore, the nomogram was externally validated using Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) dataset.

RESULTS

The nomogram for predicting ALN metastasis yielded a C-index of 0.728 (95% CI: 0.698-0.758) and an AUC of 0.728 (95% CI: 0.697-0.758) in the TCGA cohort. In the independent validation cohort, the C-index and AUC of the nomogram were up to 0.825 (95% CI: 0.695-0.955) and 0.810 (95% CI: 0.666-0.953), respectively.

CONCLUSION

This nomogram could predict the risk of axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer and may provide a reference for clinicians to design individualized axillary lymph node management strategies.

Radiomics nomogram for predicting axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer based on DCE-MRI: A multicenter study

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to develop and validate a radiomics nomogram based on dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) to noninvasively predict axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis in breast cancer.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 263 patients with histologically proven invasive breast cancer and who underwent DCE-MRI examination before surgery in two hospitals. All patients had a defined ALN status based on pathological examination results. Regions of interest (ROIs) of the primary tumor and ipsilateral ALN were manually drawn. A total of 1,409 radiomics features were initially computed from each ROI. Next, the low variance threshold, SelectKBest, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithms were used to extract the radiomics features. The selected radiomics features were used to establish the radiomics signature of the primary tumor and ALN. A radiomics nomogram model, including the radiomics signature and the independent clinical risk factors, was then constructed. The predictive performance was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) by using the training and testing sets.

RESULTS

ALNM rates of the training, internal testing, and external testing sets were 43.6%, 44.3% and 32.3%, respectively. The nomogram, including clinical risk factors (tumor diameter) and radiomics signature of the primary tumor and ALN, showed good calibration and discrimination with areas under the ROC curves of 0.884, 0.822, and 0.813 in the training, internal and external testing sets, respectively. DCA also showed that radiomics nomogram displayed better clinical predictive usefulness than the clinical or radiomics signature alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The radiomics nomogram combined with clinical risk factors and DCE-MRI-based radiomics signature may be used to predict ALN metastasis in a noninvasive manner.

Predictive nomogram based on serum tumor markers and clinicopathological features for stratifying lymph node metastasis in breast cancer

BACKGROUND

This study was aimed to establish the nomogram to predict patients' axillary node status by using patients' clinicopathological and tumor characteristic factors.

METHODS

A total of 705 patients with breast cancer were enrolled in this study. All patients were randomly divided into a training group and a validation group. Univariate and multivariate ordered logistic regression were used to determine the predictive ability of each variable. A nomogram was performed based on the factors selected from logistic regression results. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the discriminative ability and accuracy of the models.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that CEA, CA125, CA153, tumor size, vascular-invasion, calcification, and tumor grade were independent prognostic factors for positive ALNs. Integrating all the predictive factors, a nomogram was successfully developed and validated. The C-indexes of the nomogram for prediction of no ALN metastasis, positive ALN, and four and more ALN metastasis were 0.826, 0.706, and 0.855 in training group and 0.836, 0.731, and 0.897 in validation group. Furthermore, calibration plots and DCA demonstrated a satisfactory performance of our nomogram.

CONCLUSION

We successfully construct and validate the nomogram to predict patients' axillary node status by using patients' clinicopathological and tumor characteristic factors.

A Combined Nomogram Model to Preoperatively Predict Positive Sentinel Lymph Biopsy for Breast Cancer In Iranian Population

Background

Axillary dissection in breast cancer provides useful information on the degree of axillary nodule involvement, which serves as a reliable indicator for the prognosis and staging of breast cancer in patients. The aim of this study was to develop and validate the nomogram model by combining prognostic factors and clinical features to predict the node status of preoperative breast guard positive node cancer.

Materials and Methods

Subjects consisted of patients referring to hospitals with the diagnosis of breast cancer. Patients were allowed to substitute molecular subtypes with data on breast cancer diagnosis and prognosis as well as sentinel node status. The bootstrap review was used for internal validation. The predicted performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. According to the logistic regression analysis, the nomograms reported material strength between predictors and final status reliability.

Results

1172 patients participated in the study, of whom only 539 patients had axillary lymph node involvement. The subtype, family history, calcification, and necrosis were not significantly related to axillary lymph node involvement. Tumor size, histological type, and lymphovascular invasion in multivariate logistic regression were significantly and directly correlated with axillary lymph node involvement.

Conclusion

Nomograms, depending on the population, help make decisions to prevent axillary surgery. It seems that the prediction model presented in this study, based on the results of the neuromography, can help surgeons make a more informed decision on underarm surgery. Moreover, in some cases, their surgical program will be informed by accurate medical care and preclusion of major surgeries such as ALND.

Nomogram models for stratified prediction of axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients (cN0)

Objectives

To determine the predictors of axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM), two nomogram models were constructed to accurately predict the status of axillary lymph nodes (ALNs), mainly high nodal tumour burden (HNTB, > 2 positive lymph nodes), low nodal tumour burden (LNTB, 1-2 positive lymph nodes) and negative ALNM (N0). Accordingly, more appropriate treatment strategies for breast cancer patients without clinical ALNM (cN0) could be selected.

Methods

From 2010 to 2015, a total of 6314 patients with invasive breast cancer (cN0) were diagnosed in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and randomly assigned to the training and internal validation groups at a ratio of 3:1. As the external validation group, data from 503 breast cancer patients (cN0) who underwent axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2011 and December 2020 were collected. The predictive factors determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to construct the nomograms. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots were used to assess the prediction models' discrimination and calibration.

Results

Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that tumour size, primary site, molecular subtype and grade were independent predictors of both ALNM and HNTB. Moreover, histologic type and age were independent predictors of ALNM and HNTB, respectively. Integrating these independent predictors, two nomograms were successfully developed to accurately predict the status of ALN. For nomogram 1 (prediction of ALNM), the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in the training, internal validation and external validation groups were 0.715, 0.688 and 0.876, respectively. For nomogram 2 (prediction of HNTB), the areas under the ROC curve in the training, internal validation and external validation groups were 0.842, 0.823 and 0.862. The above results showed a satisfactory performance.

Conclusion

We established two nomogram models to predict the status of ALNs (N0, 1-2 positive ALNs or >2 positive ALNs) for breast cancer patients (cN0). They were well verified in further internal and external groups. The nomograms can help doctors make more accurate treatment plans, and avoid unnecessary surgical trauma.

Development and validation of a nomogram for freezing of gait in patients with Parkinson's Disease

OBJECTIVES

Freezing of gait (FOG) is a common and complex disabling episodic gait disturbance in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Currently, the treatment of FOG remains a challenge for clinicians. The aim of our study was to develop a nomogram for FOG risk based on data collected from Chinese patients with PD.

MATERIALS & METHODS

A total of 379 PD patients (197 with FOG) from Kunming Medical University were recruited as a training cohort. Additionally, 339 PD patients (166 with FOG) were recruited from West China Hospital of Sichuan University, to serve as the validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to select clinical and demographic characteristics as well as blood markers, which were incorporated into a predictive model using multivariate logistic regression to predict the risk of developing FOG. The model was validated using the validation dataset, and model performance was evaluated using the C-index, calibration plot, and decision curve analyses.

RESULTS

The final predictive model included the REM Sleep Behavior Disorder Screening Questionnaire (RBDSQ) score, Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ39), H-Y stage, and visuospatial function. The model showed good calibration and good discrimination, with a C-index value of 0.772 against the training cohort and 0.766 against the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical utility of the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram incorporating RBDSQ, PDQ39, H-Y stage, and visuospatial function may reliably predict the risk of FOG in PD patients.

Collagen signature as a novel biomarker to predict axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer using multiphoton microscopy

Accurate identification of axillary lymph node (ALN) status is crucial for tumor staging procedure and decision making. This retrospective study of 898 participants from two institutions was conducted. The aim of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic performance of clinical parameters combined with collagen signatures (tumor-associated collagen signatures [TACS] and the TACS corresponding microscopic features [TCMF]) in predicting the probability of ALN metastasis in patients with breast cancer. These findings suggest that TACS and TCMF in the breast tumor microenvironment are both novel and independent biomarkers for the estimation of ALN metastasis. The nomogram based on independent clinical parameters combined with TACS and TCMF yields good diagnostic performance in predicting ALN status.

Elaboration and Validation of a Nomogram Based on Axillary Ultrasound and Tumor Clinicopathological Features to Predict Axillary Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients With Breast Cancer

Background

This study aimed at constructing a nomogram to predict axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) based on axillary ultrasound and tumor clinicopathological features.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of 281 patients with pathologically confirmed breast cancer was performed between January 2015 and March 2018. All patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 197) and a validation cohort (n = 84). Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the clinically important predictors of ALNM when developin1 g the nomogram. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the nomogram.

Results

In univariate and multivariate analyses, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), axillary lymph node (ALN) cortex thickness, and an obliterated ALN fatty hilum were identified as independent predictors and integrated to develop a nomogram for predicting ALNM. The nomogram showed favorable sensitivity for ALNM with AUCs of 0.87 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.81–0.92) and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.73–0.92) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration plots of the nomogram showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual ALNM diagnosis (P > 0.05). Decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed the net benefit of the nomogram.

Conclusions

This study developed a nomogram based on three daily available clinical parameters, with good accuracy and clinical utility, which may help the radiologist in decision-making for ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration cytology/biopsy (US-FNAC/B) according to the nomogram score.

Can axillary lymphadenectomy be avoided in breast cancer with positive sentinel lymph node biopsy? Predictors of non-sentinel lymph node metastasis

PURPOSE

Completion axillary lymph node dissection (cALND) can currently be avoided in those patients with a low tumor load (LTL) and/or a low-risk profile that tested with positive sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). Our objective is to identify prognostic factors that significantly influence axillary lymph node involvement to identify patients who could benefit from surgery without axillary lymphadenectomy.

METHODS

This is an observational retrospective study of consecutive patients diagnosed and operated of breast cancer between 2000 and 2014 at University Hospital La Ribera (UHR).

RESULTS

The size of the sample was 1641 patients, from which 1174 underwent SLNB. In the multivariate analysis, we objectify a raise of risk of positive sentinel lymph node (SLN) up to 5.2% for every millimeter of increase. The risk of positive SLNB when showing lymphovascular invasion seems to be 2.80 times greater but becomes lower when SLN involvement appears in luminal A, luminal B and triple-negative types, regarding HER2. In case of triple negatives, the difference is statistically significant. 16.7% present affected additional lymph nodes. The proportion of patients with affected additional lymph nodes increase dramatically above OSNA values of 12,000 copies/μl of CK19 mRNA and it depends on tumor size and lymphovascular infiltration.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumors smaller than 5 cm whose OSNA SLNB analysis is less than 12,000 copies/μl of CK19 mRNA have a low chance to develop additional affected lymph nodes, thus cALND can be avoided.

The NILS Study Protocol: A Retrospective Validation Study of an Artificial Neural Network Based Preoperative Decision-Making Tool for Noninvasive Lymph Node Staging in Women with Primary Breast Cancer (ISRCTN14341750)

Newly diagnosed breast cancer (BC) patients with clinical T1–T2 N0 disease undergo sentinel-lymph-node (SLN) biopsy, although most of them have a benign SLN. The pilot noninvasive lymph node staging (NILS) artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict nodal status was published in 2019, showing the potential to identify patients with a low risk of SLN metastasis. The aim of this study is to assess the performance measures of the model after a web-based implementation for the prediction of a healthy SLN in clinically N0 BC patients. This retrospective study was designed to validate the NILS prediction model for SLN status using preoperatively available clinicopathological and radiological data. The model results in an estimated probability of a healthy SLN for each study participant. Our primary endpoint is to report on the performance of the NILS prediction model to distinguish between healthy and metastatic SLNs (N0 vs. N+) and compare the observed and predicted event rates of benign SLNs. After validation, the prediction model may assist medical professionals and BC patients in shared decision making on omitting SLN biopsies in patients predicted to be node-negative by the NILS model. This study was prospectively registered in the ISRCTN registry (identification number: 14341750).

Models for Predicting Sentinel and Non-sentinel Lymph Nodes Based on Pre-operative Ultrasonic Breast Imaging to Optimize Axillary Strategies

Axillary strategy decisions have become more complex and controversial in considering minimally traumatic therapy instead of sentinel lymph node biopsy, axillary lymph node dissection or regional nodal irradiation for people with breast cancer. The purpose of this study was to noninvasively predict sentinel lymph node (SLN) and non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) status based on pre-operative sonographic and clinicopathologic features to determine optimal decisions regarding axillary therapy. In total, 701 patients with breast cancer from two independent centers were retrospectively analyzed. The SLN model (SLNM) for predicting SLN status and the NSLN model (NSLNM) for predicting NSLN status were trained based on a training set using the random-forest algorithm, and their performance was validated using an independent external test set. A receiver operating characteristic curve was drawn to obtain the area under the curve, which was used to assess performance. The area under the curve for the SLNM in the training and test, respectively, was 94.2% and 83.0%, and for the NSLNM, 99.5% and 92.7%. The SLNM and NSLNM accurately predicted that 61.46% (319/519) and 17.53% (91/519), respectively, of our participants were non-metastatic. The overall benefit of the three models was 78.99% in our participants. The two models for predicting SLN and NSLN status showed excellent application potential in optimizing axillary strategies.

Recent Radiomics Advancements in Breast Cancer: Lessons and Pitfalls for the Next Future

Radiomics is an emerging translational field of medicine based on the extraction of high-dimensional data from radiological images, with the purpose to reach reliable models to be applied into clinical practice for the purposes of diagnosis, prognosis and evaluation of disease response to treatment. We aim to provide the basic information on radiomics to radiologists and clinicians who are focused on breast cancer care, encouraging cooperation with scientists to mine data for a better application in clinical practice. We investigate the workflow and clinical application of radiomics in breast cancer care, as well as the outlook and challenges based on recent studies. Currently, radiomics has the potential ability to distinguish between benign and malignant breast lesions, to predict breast cancer’s molecular subtypes, the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and the lymph node metastases. Even though radiomics has been used in tumor diagnosis and prognosis, it is still in the research phase and some challenges need to be faced to obtain a clinical translation. In this review, we discuss the current limitations and promises of radiomics for improvement in further research.

Validation of the Skåne University Hospital nomogram for the preoperative prediction of a disease-free axilla in patients with breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Axillary staging via sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is performed for clinically node-negative (N0) breast cancer patients. The Skåne University Hospital (SUS) nomogram was developed to assess the possibility of omitting SLNB for patients with a low risk of nodal metastasis. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.74. The aim was to validate the SUS nomogram using only routinely collected data from the Swedish National Quality Registry for Breast Cancer at two breast cancer centres during different time periods.

METHOD

This retrospective study included patients with primary breast cancer who were treated at centres in Lund and Malmö during 2008-2013. Clinicopathological predictors in the SUS nomogram were age, mode of detection, tumour size, multifocality, lymphovascular invasion and surrogate molecular subtype. Multiple imputation was used for missing data. Validation performance was assessed using AUC and calibration.

RESULTS

The study included 2939 patients (1318 patients treated in Lund and 1621 treated in Malmö). Node-positive disease was detected in 1008 patients. The overall validation AUC was 0.74 (Lund cohort AUC: 0.75, Malmö cohort AUC: 0.73), and the calibration was satisfactory. Accepting a false-negative rate of 5 per cent for predicting N0, a possible SLNB reduction rate of 15 per cent was obtained in the overall cohort.

CONCLUSION

The SUS nomogram provided acceptable power for predicting a disease-free axilla in the validation cohort. This tool may assist surgeons in identifying and counselling patients with a low risk of nodal metastasis on the omission of SLNB staging.

Nomograms for Predicting Axillary Lymph Node Status Reconciled With Preoperative Breast Ultrasound Images

Introduction

The axillary lymph node (ALN) status of breast cancer patients is an important prognostic indicator. The use of primary breast mass features for the prediction of ALN status is rare. Two nomograms based on preoperative ultrasound (US) images of breast tumors and ALNs were developed for the prediction of ALN status.

Methods

A total of 743 breast cancer cases collected from 2016 to 2019 at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University were randomly divided into a training set (n = 523) and a test set (n = 220). A primary tumor feature model (PTFM) and ALN feature model (ALNFM) were separately generated based on tumor features alone, and a combination of features was used for the prediction of ALN status. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct the nomograms. A receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted to obtain the area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate accuracy, and bias-corrected AUC values and calibration curves were obtained by bootstrap resampling for internal and external verification. Decision curve analysis was applied to assess the clinical utility of the models.

Results

The AUCs of the PTFM were 0.69 and 0.67 for the training and test sets, respectively, and the bias-corrected AUCs of the PTFM were 0.67 and 0.67, respectively. Moreover, the AUCs of the ALNFM were 0.86 and 0.84, respectively, and the bias-corrected AUCs were 0.85 and 0.81, respectively. Compared with the PTFM, the ALNFM showed significantly improved prediction accuracy (p < 0.001). Both the calibration and decision curves of the ALNFM nomogram indicated greater accuracy and clinical practicality. When the US tumor size was ≤21.5 mm, the Spe was 0.96 and 0.92 in the training and test sets, respectively. When the US tumor size was greater than 21.5 mm, the Sen was 0.85 in the training set and 0.87 in the test set. Our further research showed that when the US tumor size was larger than 35 mm, the Sen was 0.90 in the training set and 0.93 in the test set.

Conclusion

The ALNFM could effectively predict ALN status based on US images especially for different US tumor size.

Development and validation of a nomogram for prediction of lymph node metastasis in early-stage breast cancer

Background

Lymph node status is an important factor in determining the prognosis of early-stage breast cancer. We endeavored to build and validate a simple nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with early-stage breast cancer.

Methods

Patients with T1-2 and non-metastasis (M0) breast cancer registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were enrolled. All patients were divided into primary cohort and validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio. In order to assess risk factors for LNM, we performed univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression, and based on results of multivariable analysis, we built the predictive nomogram model. The C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration plots were applied to assess LNM model performance. Moreover, the nomogram efficiency was further validated through the validation cohort, part of which was from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University database.

Results

Totally, 184,531 female breast cancer with T1-2 tumor size from SEER database and 1,222 patients from the Chinese institutional data were included. There were 123,019 patients in the primary cohort and 62,734 patients in validation cohort. The LNM nomogram was composed of seven features including age at diagnosis, race, primary site, histologic type, grade, tumor size and subtype. The model showed good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.720 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.717-0.723] and good calibration. Similar C-index was 0.718 (95% CI: 0.713-0.723) in validation cohort. Consistently, ROC curves presented good discrimination in the primary cohort [area under the curve (AUC) =0.720] and the validation set (AUC =0.718) for the LNM nomogram. Calibration curve of the nomogram demonstrated good agreement.

Conclusions

With the prediction of novel validated nomogram for women with early-stage breast cancer, doctors may distinguish patients with high possibility of LNM and devise individualize treatments.

Preoperative prediction of axillary sentinel lymph node burden with multiparametric MRI-based radiomics nomogram in early-stage breast cancer

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a multiparametric MRI-based radiomics nomogram for pretreatment predicting the axillary sentinel lymph node (SLN) burden in early-stage breast cancer.

METHODS

A total of 230 women with early-stage invasive breast cancer were retrospectively analyzed. A radiomics signature was constructed based on preoperative multiparametric MRI from the training dataset (n = 126) of center 1, then tested in the validation cohort (n = 42) from center 1 and an external test cohort (n = 62) from center 2. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to develop a radiomics nomogram incorporating radiomics signature and predictive clinical and radiological features. The radiomics nomogram's performance was evaluated by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical use and was compared with MRI-based descriptors of primary breast tumor.

RESULTS

The constructed radiomics nomogram incorporating radiomics signature and MRI-determined axillary lymph node (ALN) burden showed a good calibration and outperformed the MRI-determined ALN burden alone for predicting SLN burden (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.82 vs. 0.68 [p < 0.001] in training cohort; 0.81 vs. 0.68 in validation cohort [p = 0.04]; and 0.81 vs. 0.58 [p = 0.001] in test cohort). Compared with the MRI-based breast tumor combined descriptors, the radiomics nomogram achieved a higher AUC in test cohort (0.81 vs. 0.58, p = 0.005) and a comparable AUC in training (0.82 vs. 0.73, p = 0.15) and validation (0.81 vs. 0.65, p = 0.31) cohorts.

CONCLUSION

A multiparametric MRI-based radiomics nomogram can be used for preoperative prediction of the SLN burden in early-stage breast cancer.

KEY POINTS

• Radiomics nomogram incorporating radiomics signature and MRI-determined ALN burden outperforms the MRI-determined ALN burden alone for predicting SLN burden in early-stage breast cancer. • Radiomics nomogram might have a better predictive ability than the MRI-based breast tumor combined descriptors. • Multiparametric MRI-based radiomics nomogram can be used as a non-invasive tool for preoperative predicting of SLN burden in patients with early-stage breast cancer.

Establishing a prediction model of axillary nodal burden based on the combination of CT and ultrasound findings and the clinicopathological features in patients with early-stage breast cancer

Background

Axillary lymph node (ALN) management in early-stage breast cancer (ESBC) patients has become less invasive during the past decades. Here, we tried to explore whether high nodal burden (HNB) in ESBC patients could be predicted preoperatively, so as to avoid unnecessary sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB).

Methods

The clinicopathological and imaging data of patients with early invasive breast cancer (cT_1-2N₀M₀) were analyzed retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for the risk factors of axillary HNB in ESBC patients, and a risk prediction model of HNB was established.

Results

HNB was identified in 105 (8.0%) of 1,300 ESBC patients. Multivariate analysis showed that estrogen receptors (ER) status, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status, number of abnormal lymph nodes (LNs) on computed tomography (CT), and axillary score on ultrasound (US) were the risk factors of HNB (all P<0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in the prediction model was 0.914, with the sensitivity being 85.7% and the specificity being 82.4%. The calibration curve showed that the prediction model had good performance.

Conclusions

As a valuable tool for predicting HNB in ESBC patients, this newly established model helps clinicians to make reasonable axillary surgery decisions and thus avoid unnecessary SLNB.

Radiomics Nomogram of DCE-MRI for the Prediction of Axillary Lymph Node Metastasis in Breast Cancer

Purpose

This study aimed to establish and validate a radiomics nomogram based on dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-MRI for predicting axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis in breast cancer.

Method

This retrospective study included 296 patients with breast cancer who underwent DCE-MRI examinations between July 2017 and June 2018. A total of 396 radiomics features were extracted from primary tumor. In addition, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was used to select the features. Radiomics signature and independent risk factors were incorporated to build a radiomics nomogram model. Calibration and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to confirm the performance of the nomogram in the training and validation sets. The clinical usefulness of the nomogram was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

The radiomics signature consisted of three ALN-status-related features, and the nomogram model included the radiomics signature and the MR-reported lymph node (LN) status. The model showed good calibration and discrimination with areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.87-0.97] in the training set and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.85-0.95) in the validation set. In the MR-reported LN-negative (cN0) subgroup, the nomogram model also exhibited favorable discriminatory ability (AUC, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.87). DCA findings indicated that the nomogram model was clinically useful.

Conclusions

The MRI-based radiomics nomogram model could be used to preoperatively predict the ALN metastasis of breast cancer.

Preoperative Prediction Nomogram Based on Integrated Profiling for Glioblastoma Multiforme in Glioma Patients

Introduction: Traditional classification that divided gliomas into glioblastoma multiformes (GBM) and lower grade gliomas (LGG) based on pathological morphology has been challenged over the past decade by improvements in molecular stratification, however, the reproducibility and diagnostic accuracy of glioma classification still remains poor. This study aimed to establish and validate a novel nomogram for the preoperative diagnosis of GBM by using integrated data combined with feasible baseline characteristics and preoperative tests.

Material and method: The models were established in a primary cohort that included 259 glioma patients who had undergone surgical resection and were pathologically diagnosed from March 2014 to May 2016 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University. The preoperative data were used to construct three models by the best subset regression, the forward stepwise regression, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and to furthermore establish the nomogram among those models. The assessment of nomogram was carried out by the discrimination and calibration in internal cohorts and external cohorts.

Results and discussion: Out of all three models, model 2 contained eight clinical-related variables, which exhibited the minimum Akaike Information Criterion (173.71) and maximum concordance index (0.894). Compared with the other two models, the integrated discrimination index for model 2 was significantly improved, indicating that the nomogram obtained from model 2 was the most appropriate model. Likewise, the nomogram showed great calibration and significant clinical benefit according to calibration curves and the decision curve analysis.

Conclusion: In conclusion, our study showed a novel preoperative model that incorporated clinically relevant variables and imaging features with laboratory data that could be used for preoperative prediction in glioma patients, thus providing more reliable evidence for surgical decision-making.

Nodal staging affects adjuvant treatment choices in elderly patients with clinically node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer

Background

In response to Choosing Wisely recommendations that sentinel lymph node biopsy (slnb) should not be routinely performed in elderly patients with node-negative (cN0), estrogen receptor-positive (er+) breast cancer, we sought to evaluate how nodal staging affects adjuvant treatment in this population.

Methods

From a prospective database, we identified patients 70 or more years of age with cN0 breast cancer treated with surgery for er+ her2-negative invasive disease during 2012-2016. We determined rates of, and factors associated with, nodal positivity (pN+), and compared the use of adjuvant radiation (rt) and systemic therapy by nodal status.

Results

Of 364 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 331 (91%) underwent slnb, with 75 (23%) being pN+. Axillary node dissection was performed in 11 patients (3%). On multivariate analysis, tumour size was the only factor associated with pN+ (p = 0.007). Nodal positivity rates were 0%, 13%, 23%, 33%, and 27% for lesions preoperatively sized at 0-0.5 cm, 0.5-1 cm, 1.1-2.0 cm, 2.1-5.0 cm, and more than 5.0 cm. Compared with patients assessed as node-negative, those who were pN+ were more likely to receive axillary rt (lumpectomy: 53% vs. 1%, p < 0.001; mastectomy: 43% vs. 2%, p < 0.001), and adjuvant systemic therapy (endocrine: 82% vs. 69%; chemotherapy plus endocrine: 7% vs. 2%, p = 0.002).

Conclusions

Of elderly patients with cN0 er+ breast cancer, 23% were pN+ on slnb. Size was the primary predictor of nodal status, and yet significant rates of nodal positivity were observed even in tumours preoperatively sized at 1 cm or less. The use of rt and systemic adjuvant therapies differed by nodal status, although the long-term oncologic implications require further investigation. Multidisciplinary input on a case-by-case basis should be considered before omission of slnb.

Construction of an immune-related genes nomogram for the preoperative prediction of axillary lymph node metastasis in triple-negative breast cancer

Immune system disorder is associated with metastasis of triple-negative breast cancers (TNBCs). A robust, individualized immune-related genes (IRGs)-based classifier was aimed to develop and validate in our study to precisely estimate the axillary lymph node (ALN) status preoperatively in patients with early-stage TNBC. We first analyzed RNA sequencing profiles in TNBC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas database by using bioinformatics approaches, and screened 23 differentially expressed IRGs. A 9-gene panel was generated with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.68-0.87]. We detected the 9 ALN-status-related IRGs in the training set (n = 133) and developed a reduced and optimized five-IRGs signature, which effectively distinguished TNBC patients with ALN metastasis (AUC, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.65-0.86), and was superior to preoperative ultrasound-based ALN status (AUC, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.53-0.93). Predictive efficiency (AUC, 0.77; 95% CI 0.61-0.93) of this five-IRGs signature was validated in the validation set (n = 81). Furthermore, IRGs nomogram incorporated IRGs signature with US-based ALN status showed higher ALN status prediction efficacy than US-based ALN status and five-IRGs signature alone in both training and validation sets. IRGs nomogram may aid in identifying patients who can be exempted from axillary surgery.Novelty and impact: An immune-related genes (IRGs) nomogram was first developed and externally validated in our study, which incorporated the IRGs signature with ultrasound (US)-based axillary lymph nodes (ALN) status. IRGs nomogram is superior to IRGs signature alone for preoperative estimation of ALN metastasis in patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). It is a favourable biomarker for preoperatively predicting ALN metastasis risk and may aid in clinical decision-making in early-stage TNBCs.

Preoperative Prediction of Axillary Lymph Node Metastasis in Breast Carcinoma Using Radiomics Features Based on the Fat-Suppressed T2 Sequence

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

To investigate the value of radiomics method based on the fat-suppressed T2 sequence for preoperative predicting axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis in breast carcinoma.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The data of 329 invasive breast cancer patients were divided into the primary cohort (n = 269) and validation cohort (n = 60). Radiomics features were extracted from the fat-suppressed T2-weighted images on breast MRI, and ALN metastasis-related radiomics feature selection was performed using Mann-Whitney U-test and support vector machines with recursive feature elimination; then a radiomics signature was constructed by linear support vector machine. The predictive models were constructed using a linear regression model based on the clinicopathologic factors and radiomics signature, and nomogram was used for a visual prediction of the combined model. The predictive performances are evaluated with the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

A total of 647 radiomics features were extracted from each patient. About 23 ALN metastasis-related radiomics features were selected to construct the radiomics signature, including 17 texture features, 5 first-order statistical features, and one shape feature; patient age, tumor size, HER2 status, and vascular cancer thrombus accompanied or not were selected to construct the cilinicopathologic feature model. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and are under the curve value of radiomics signature, clinicopathologic feature model, and the nomogram were 65.22%, 81.08%, 75.00%, and 0.819 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.776-0.861), 30.44%, 81.08%, 61.67%, and 0.605 (95% CI: 0.571-0.624) and 60.87%, 89.19%, 78.33%, and 0.810 (95% CI: 0.761-0.855), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Radiomics methods based on the fat-suppressed T2 sequence and the nomogram are helpful for preoperative accurate predicting ALN metastasis.

Independent risk factors for axillary lymph node metastasis in breast cancer patients with one or two positive sentinel lymph nodes

Background

The benefit of axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) in breast cancer patients with one or two positive sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) remains inconclusive. The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors independently associated with axillary lymph node (ALN) metastasis.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed data from 389 Chinese breast cancer patients with one or two positive SLNs who underwent ALND. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify ALN metastasis-associated risk factors.

Results

Among the 389 patients, 174 (44.7%) had ALN metastasis, while 215 (55.3%) showed no evidence of ALN metastasis. Univariate analysis revealed significant differences in age (< 60 or ≥ 60 years), human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (Her-2) status, and the ratio of positive to total SLNs between the ALN metastasis and non-metastasis groups (P < 0.05). The multivariate analysis indicated that age, the ratio of positive to total SLNs, and occupations were significantly different between the two groups. Lastly, younger age (< 60 years), a higher ratio of positive to total SLNs, and manual labor jobs were independently associated with ALN metastasis (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

The risk of ALN metastasis in breast cancer patients with one or two positive SLNs can be further increased by younger age, manual labor jobs, and a high ratio of positive to total SLNs. Our findings may also aid in identifying which patients with one or two positive SLNs may not require ALND.

Multifocality in ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence - A study in ablative specimens

BACKGROUND

The incidence and clinical significance of multifocality in ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) after breast-conserving therapy (BCT) are unclear. With growing interest in repeat BCT, this information has become of importance. This study aimed to gain insight in the incidence of multifocality in IBTR, to identify patient- and tumor-related predicting factors and to investigate the prognostic significance of multifocality.

METHODS

Two hundred and fifteen patients were included in this analysis. All had an IBTR after BCT and were treated by salvage mastectomy and appropriate adjuvant therapy. Predictive tumor- and patient-related factors for multifocality in IBTR were identified using X2 test and univariate logistic regression analyses. Prognostic outcomes were calculated using Kaplan Meier analysis and compared using the log rank test.

RESULTS

Multifocality was present in 50 (22.9%) of IBTR mastectomy specimens. Axillary positivity in IBTR was significantly associated with multifocality in IBTR. Chest wall re-recurrences occurred more often after multifocal IBTR (14% versus 7% after unifocal IBTR, p = 0.120). Regional re-recurrences did not differ significantly between unifocal and multifocal IBTR (8% vs. 6%, p = 0.773). Distant metastasis after salvage surgery occurred more frequently after multifocal IBTR (15% vs. 24%, p = 0.122). Overall survival was 132 months after unifocal IBTR and 112 months after multifocal IBTR (p = 0.197).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of multifocality in IBTR is higher than in primary breast cancer. Axillary positivity in IBTR was associated with a multifocal IBTR. Chest wall re-recurrences and distant metastasis were, although not statistically significant, more prevalent after multifocal IBTR.

Establishment of Simple Nomograms for Predicting Axillary Lymph Node Involvement in Early Breast Cancer

Purpose

Axillary lymph node (ALN) involvement is an important prognostic factor of early invasive breast cancer. The objective of this study was to establish simple nomograms for predicting ALN involvement based on ultrasound (US) characteristics and evaluate the predictive value of US in the detection of ALN involvement.

Patients and Methods

A total of 1328 patients with cT1-2N0 breast cancer by physical exam were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate analysis was used for the comparison of variables, and multivariate analysis was performed by binary logistic regression analysis. The R software was used to establish simple nomograms based on the US characteristics alone. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the prediction model and the verification group were drawn, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the discrimination of the prediction model. A calibration curve was plotted to assess the nomogram predictions vs the actual observations of the ALN metastasis rate and axillary tumor burden rate.

Results

The ALN metastasis rates of the training group and the validation group were 35.1% and 34.1%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that molecular subtype, lymphovascular invasion, mass descriptors (size, margin, microcalcification and blood flow signal) and LN descriptors (shape, cortical thickness and long-to-short ratio) were independent impact factors in early breast cancer. The AUC of ALN metastasis rate of prediction model based on US features was 0.802, the AUC of high tumor burden rate was 0.873, and the AUC of external validation group was 0.731 and 0.802, respectively. The calibration curve of the nomogram showed that the nomogram predictions are consistent with the actual metastasis rate and the high tumor burden rate. The results showed that preoperative US had a sensitivity of 59.4% and a specificity of 88.9% for predicting the ALN metastasis rate.

Conclusion

The successfully established nomograms based on US characteristics to predict ALN metastasis rate and high axillary tumor burden rate in early breast cancer can achieve individual prediction. Compared with other nomogram predictions, it is more intuitive, and can help clinical decision-making; thus, it should be promoted. However, at this time US features alone are insufficient to replace sentinel lymph node biopsy.

A Nomogram Model Identifies Eosinophilic Frequencies to Powerfully Discriminate Kawasaki Disease From Febrile Infections

Background: Kawasaki disease (KD) is a form of systemic vasculitis that occurs primarily in children under the age of 5 years old. No single laboratory data can currently distinguish KD from other febrile infection diseases. The purpose of this study was to establish a laboratory data model that can differentiate between KD and other febrile diseases caused by an infection in order to prevent coronary artery complications in KD. Methods: This study consisted of a total of 800 children (249 KD and 551 age- and gender-matched non-KD febrile infection illness) as a case-control study. Laboratory findings were analyzed using univariable, multivariable logistic regression, and nomogram models. Results: We selected 562 children at random as the model group and 238 as the validation group. The predictive nomogram included high eosinophil percentage (100 points), high C-reactive protein (93 points), high alanine transaminase (84 points), low albumin (79 points), and high white blood cell (64 points), which generated an area under the curve of 0.873 for the model group and 0.905 for the validation group. Eosinophilia showed the highest OR: 5.015 (95% CI:-3.068-8.197) during multiple logistic regression. The sensitivity and specificity in the validation group were 84.1 and 86%, respectively. The calibration curves of the validation group for the probability of KD showed near an agreement to the actual probability. Conclusion: Eosinophilia is a major factor in this nomogram model and had high precision for predicting KD. This report is the first among the existing literature to demonstrate the important role of eosinophil in KD by nomogram.

Development and validation of a nomogram for survival benefit of lymphadenectomy in resected gallbladder cancer

Background

Due to absence of large, prospective, randomized, clinical trial data, the potential survival benefit of lymphadenectomy with different number of regional lymph nodes (LNs) remains controversial. We aim to create a predicting model to help estimate individualized potential survival benefit of lymphadenectomy with more regional LNs for patients with resected gallbladder cancer (GBC).

Methods

Patients with resected GBC were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database who were diagnosed between 2004 and 2014. Covariates included age, race, sex, grade, histological stage, tumor sizes and receipt of non-primary surgery. Two types of multivariate survival regression models were constructed and compared. The best model performance was tested by the external validation data from our hospital.

Results

A total of 1,669 patients met the inclusion criteria for this study. The lognormal survival model showed the best performance and was tested by the external validation data, including 193 patients with resected GBC from our hospital. Nomograms, which based on the accelerated failure time parametric survival model, were built to estimate individualized survival. C-index, was up to 0.754 and 0.710 in internal validation for more and less regional LNs removed, respectively. Both of internal and external calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes in the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS).

Conclusions

A predicting model can be used as a decision model to predict which patients may obtain benefit from lymphadenectomy with more regional LNs.

Characteristics and prognosis of pelvic Ewing sarcoma: a SEER population-based study

Background

The pelvis is one of the primary sites of Ewing sarcoma (ES) and is associated with poorer prognoses than the extremities. Due to the rarity of this disease and limited data available, the prognostic factors of pelvic ES remain controversial. Thus, this study aimed to identify independent prognostic factors, and develop a nomogram for predicting survival rates in patients with pelvic ES.

Methods

Using data provided by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, variables including age, sex, race, tumor size, tumor stage, surgery, and radiotherapy were analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression. Based on the results of multivariate analyses, a nomogram was built to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with pelvic ES. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index).

Results

A total of 267 cases diagnosed between 2004 and 2016 were included in the study. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that patients who were younger, white, had a localized tumor stage, or underwent surgery were associated with improved prognoses, while no significant differences were observed in OS based on sex, tumor size, or radiotherapy. A nomogram was developed and the C-index was 0.728, indicating adequate performance for survival prediction.

Conclusions

Age, race, tumor stage, and surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors for the OS of pelvic ES. The nomogram developed in this study can individually predict 3- and 5-year OS in patients with pelvic ES.

Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis in Breast Cancer by Gene Expression and Clinicopathological Models: Development and Validation within a Population-Based Cohort

PURPOSE

More than 70% of patients with breast cancer present with node-negative disease, yet all undergo surgical axillary staging. We aimed to define predictors of nodal metastasis using clinicopathological characteristics (CLINICAL), gene expression data (GEX), and mixed features (MIXED) and to identify patients at low risk of metastasis who might be spared sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB).Experimental Design: Breast tumors (n = 3,023) from the population-based Sweden Cancerome Analysis Network-Breast initiative were profiled by RNA sequencing and linked to clinicopathologic characteristics. Seven machine-learning models present the discriminative ability of N0/N+ in development (n = 2,278) and independent validation cohorts (n = 745) stratified as ER⁺HER2^-, HER2⁺, and TNBC. Possible SLNB reduction rates are proposed by applying CLINICAL and MIXED predictors.

RESULTS

In the validation cohort, the MIXED predictor showed the highest area under ROC curves to assess nodal metastasis; AUC = 0.72. For the subgroups, the AUCs for MIXED, CLINICAL, and GEX predictors ranged from 0.66 to 0.72, 0.65 to 0.73, and 0.58 to 0.67, respectively. Enriched proliferation metagene and luminal B features were noticed in node-positive ER⁺HER2^- and HER2⁺ tumors, while upregulated basal-like features were observed in node-negative TNBC tumors. The SLNB reduction rates in patients with ER⁺HER2^- tumors were 6% to 7% higher for the MIXED predictor compared with the CLINICAL predictor accepting false negative rates of 5% to 10%.

CONCLUSIONS

Although CLINICAL and MIXED predictors of nodal metastasis had comparable accuracy, the MIXED predictor identified more node-negative patients. This translational approach holds promise for development of classifiers to reduce the rates of SLNB for patients at low risk of nodal involvement.

Determinants for non-sentinel node metastases in primary invasive breast cancer: a population-based cohort study of 602 consecutive patients with sentinel node metastases

Background

Sentinel node biopsy (SNB) is the standard procedure for axillary staging in patients with clinically lymph node negative invasive breast cancer. Completion axillary lymph node dissection (c-ALND) may not be necessary for all patients as a significant number of patients have no further metastases in non-sentinel nodes (non-SN) and c-ALND may not improve survival. The first aim of our study is to identify clinicopathological determinants associated with non-SN metastases. The second aim is to determine the impact of the number of sentinel node (SN) with macro-metastases and the type of SN metastases on metastatic involvement in non-SN.

Methods

This is a retrospective study of 602 patients with primary invasive breast cancer operated on with SNB and c-ALND in Lund and Malmö during 2008–2013. All these patients had micro- and/or macro-metastases in SNs. Information was retrieved from the national Information Network for Cancer Care (INCA). The risk of metastases to non-SNs were analyzed in relation to clinicopathological determinants such as age, screening mammography, tumour size, tumour type, histological grade, estrogen status, progesterone status, HER2 status, multifocality and lymphovascular invasion. Additionally, we compared the association between the number of the SN and the type of metastases in SN with the risk of metastases to non-SNs. Binary logistic regression was used, yielding odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

We found that 211 patients (35%) had metastases in non-SNs and 391 patients (65%) had no metastases in non-SNs. Lobular type (18%) of breast cancer (1.73; 1.0 1-2.97) and multifocal (31.3%) tumours (2.20; 1.41–3.44) had a high risk of non-SNs metastases. As compared to only micro-metastases, the presence of macro-metastases in SNs was associated with a high risk of metastases to non-SNs (4.91; 3.01–8.05). The number of SN with macro-metastases, regardless of the number of SNs removed by surgery, increases the risk of finding non-SNs with metastases. The total number of SN removed by surgery had no impact on diagnosis of metastases in non-SNs. No statistically significant associations were observed regarding other studied determinants.

Conclusion

We conclude in the present study that lobular cancer and multifocal tumours were associated with a high risk of non-SN involvement. The presence of the macro-metastases in SNs and the number of SN with macro-metastases has a positive association with presence of metastases in non-SNs. The total number of SNs removed by surgery had no impact on finding metastases in non-SNs. These factors may be valuable considering whether or not to omit c-ALND.

A Nomogram for Prediction of Overall Survival in Patients with Node-negative Gallbladder Cancer

Background & Aims: According to the stage of tumor, it's hard suitable to predict the prognosis for gallbladder cancer, especially for node-negative gallbladder cancer. Therefore, we aimed to create a nomogram based on demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics to estimate individualized potential impacts on postoperative overall survival.

Methods: 789 patients with node-negative gallbladder cancer were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and randomly divided into training and internal validation group. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis were used to identify prognostic factors. The nomogram was constructed using Cox proportional hazards models. We evaluated the performance of the nomogram with Harrell's concordance index and calibration curve. The nomogram was externally validated in 115 patients with node-negative gallbladder cancer from the Sir Run Run Shaw hospital.

Results: The nomogram for overall survival was built on the basis of five independent factors, such as age, sex, histology, T-stage, and number of examined lymph nodes. The C-index of nomogram for overall survival in the internal and external validation group was up to 0.724 and 0.716, respectively. Both of those calibration curves showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes in the 1-, 3-, 5-year overall survival. Compared to the 7th edition AJCC stage, the nomogram had a better difference in predicting overall survival, even could further classify patients into four risk subgroups in each stage.

Conclusion: This nomogram can be used as a decision model to predict the outcomes of postoperative overall survival for node-negative gallbladder cancer, and may give useful guidance to clinicians for next treatment.

Evolution of the Use of Completion Axillary Lymph Node Dissection in Patients with T1/2N0M0 Breast Cancer and Tumour-Involved Sentinel Lymph Nodes Undergoing Mastectomy: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

In breast cancer, completion axillary lymph node dissection (cALND) was previously recommended for patients with at least one tumour-affected sentinel lymph node (SLN). Several prospective trials predominantly in patients undergoing breast-conserving surgery showed no benefit and increased arm morbidity with this procedure. We report the influence of these trials on clinical practice of patients undergoing mastectomy.

METHODS

We analysed prospectively collected data from patients with primary invasive breast cancer treated at German breast cancer units between January 2008 and December 2015. Time trends of cALND rates were analysed in patients undergoing mastectomy for T1/2N0M0 breast cancer with one or two tumour-involved SLNs. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors influencing the decision not to perform cALND.

RESULTS

Among the entire study cohort of 166,074 patients treated at 179 breast cancer units, 4093 patients (2%) had T1/2N0M0 breast cancer with one or two tumour-involved SLNs and underwent mastectomy. cALND rates decreased from 89.9% in 2010 to 55.5% in 2015 (p < 0.001). Rates decreased from 82% to 8% in patients with micrometastatic SLN disease and from 93% to 63% in those with macrometastasis (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, factors associated with omission of cALND were treatment at a general, nonacademic hospital, pT1 status, older age, higher number of removed SLNs, fewer tumour-affected SLNs, and SLN micrometastasis (all p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite limited evidence from prospective trials relating to the omission of cALND specifically in patients undergoing mastectomy, our nationwide data show that use of cALND decreased in these patients in routine clinical practice.

Development and Validation of Nomograms Predictive of Axillary Nodal Status to Guide Surgical Decision-Making in Early-Stage Breast Cancer

Purpose: To develop and validate nomogram models using noninvasive imaging parameters with related clinical variables to predict the extent of axillary nodal involvement and stratify treatment options based on the essential cut-offs for axillary surgery according to the ACOSOG Z0011 criteria.

Materials and Methods: From May 2007 to December 2017, 1799 patients who underwent preoperative breast and axillary magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were retrospectively studied. Patients with data on axillary ultrasonography (AUS) were enrolled. The MRI images were interpreted according to Breast Imaging Reporting and Data system (BI-RADS). Using logistic regression analyses, nomograms were developed to visualize the associations between the predictors and each lymph node (LN) status endpoint. Predictive performance was assessed based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Bootstrap resampling was performed for internal validation. Goodness-of-fit of the models was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results: Of 397 early breast cancer patients, 200 (50.4%) had disease-free axilla, 119 (30.0%) had 1 or 2 positive LNs, and 78 (19.6%) had ≥3 positive LNs. Patient age, MRI features (mass margin, LN margin, presence/absence of LN hilum, and LN symmetry/asymmetry), and AUS descriptors (presence of cortical thickening or hilum) were identified as predictors of nodal disease. Nomograms with these predictors showed good calibration and discrimination; the AUC was 0.809 for negative axillary node (N0) vs. any LN metastasis, 0.749 for 1 or 2 involved nodes vs. N0, and 0.874 for ≥3 nodes vs. ≤2 metastatic nodes. The predictive ability of the 3 nomograms with additional pathological variables was significantly greater.

Conclusion: The nomograms could predict the extent of ALN metastasis and facilitate decision-making preoperatively.

Predictive Value of Preoperative Multidetector-Row Computed Tomography for Axillary Lymph Nodes Metastasis in Patients With Breast Cancer

Introduction: Axillary lymph nodes (ALN) status is an essential component in tumor staging and treatment planning for patients with breast cancer. The aim of present study was to evaluate the predictive value of preoperative multidetector-row computed tomography (MDCT) for ALN metastasis in breast cancer patients.

Methods: A total of 148 cases underwent preoperative MDCT examination and ALN surgery were eligible for the study. Logistic regression analysis of MDCT variates was used to estimate independent predictive factors for ALN metastasis. The prediction of ALN metastasis was determined with MDCT variates through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

Results: Among the 148 cases, 61 (41.2%) cases had ALN metastasis. The cortical thickness in metastatic ALN was significantly thicker than that in non-metastatic ALN (7.5 ± 5.0 mm vs. 2.6 ± 2.8 mm, P < 0.001). Multi-logistic regression analysis indicated that cortical thickness of >3 mm (OR: 12.32, 95% CI: 4.50–33.75, P < 0.001) and non-fatty hilum (OR: 5.38, 95% CI: 1.51–19.19, P = 0.009) were independent predictors for ALN metastasis. The sensitivity, specificity and AUC of MDCT for ALN metastasis prediction based on combined-variated analysis were 85.3%, 87.4%, and 0.893 (95% CI: 0.832–0.938, P < 0.001), respectively.

Conclusions: Cortical thickness (>3 mm) and non-fatty hilum of MDCT were independent predictors for ALN metastasis. MDCT is a potent imaging tool for predicting ALN metastasis in breast cancer. Future prospective study on the value of contrast enhanced MDCT in preoperative ALN evaluation is warranted.

A nomogram for individual prediction of vascular invasion in primary breast cancer

OBJECTIVES

To explore the feasibility of preoperative prediction of vascular invasion (VI) in breast cancer patients using nomogram based on multiparametric MRI and pathological reports.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected 200 patients with confirmed breast cancer between January 2016 and January 2018. All patients underwent MRI examinations before the surgery. VI was identified by postoperative pathology. The 200 patients were randomly divided into training (n = 100) and validation datasets (n = 100) at a ratio of 1:1. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select predictors most associated with VI of breast cancer. A nomogram was constructed to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive prediction value (PPV) and negative prediction value (NPV). We bootstrapped the data for 2000 times without setting the random seed to obtain corrected results.

RESULTS

VI was observed in 79 patients (39.5%). LASSO selected 10 predictors associated with VI. In the training dataset, the AUC for nomogram was 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.89-0.99, the sensitivity was 78.9% (95%CI: 72.4%-89.1%), the specificity was 95.3% (95%CI: 89.1%-100.0%), the accuracy was 86.0% (95%CI: 82.0%-92.0%), the PPV was 95.7% (95%CI: 90.0%-100.0%), and the NPV was 77.4% (95%CI: 67.8%-87.0%). In the validation dataset, the AUC for nomogram was 0.89 (95%CI: 0.83-0.95), the sensitivity was 70.3% (95%CI: 60.7%-79.2%), the specificity was 88.9% (95%CI: 80.0%-97.1%), the accuracy was 77.0% (95%CI: 70.0%-83.0%), the PPV was 91.8% (95%CI: 85.3%-98.0%), and the NPV was 62.7% (95%CI: 51.7%-74.0%). The nomogram calibration curve shows good agreement between the predicted probability and the actual probability.

CONCLUSION

The proposed nomogram could be used to predict VI in breast cancer patients, which was helpful for clinical decision-making.

Establishment of a Nomogram-Based Model for Predicting the Prognostic Value of Inflammatory Biomarkers and Preoperative D-Dimer Level in Spinal Ewing's Sarcoma Family Tumors: A Retrospective Study of 83 Patients

BACKGROUND

Ewing's sarcoma family tumors (ESFTs) are the second most common malignancy in children and adolescents. The purpose of the present retrospective study was to evaluate the prognostic role of inflammatory biomarkers and preoperative D-dimer levels in patients with spinal ESFTs.

METHODS

The neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, platelet/lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte/monocyte ratio, albumin/globulin ratio, C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR), preoperative D-dimer level, and clinical parameters were evaluated and analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were performed using the log-rank test and Cox regression analysis, respectively. The DFS and OS rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Nomograms were established to predict DFS and OS quantitatively.

RESULTS

The optimal cutoff values for D-dimer, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, platelet/lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte/monocyte ratio, CAR, and albumin/globulin ratio were 0.3, 3.2, 168, 2.2, 1.5, and 1.4, respectively. The patients were stratified into 2 groups according to the cutoff values. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, resection mode, and D-dimer level were favorable prognostic factors for DFS and OS (P < 0.05). Metastasis and CAR <1.5 were significantly associated with OS (P < 0.05). Nomograms with all significant factors were established to predict DFS and OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results have indicated that the preoperative D-dimer level is an effective prognostic factor with discriminatory ability for DFS and OS, superior to other indicators. Also, CAR was favorable prognostic factor for OS. Nomograms of DFS and OS can be recommended as practical models to evaluate the prognosis for patients with spinal ESFTs.

Effect of Primary Breast Tumor Location on Axillary Nodal Positivity

BACKGROUND

Variables such as tumor size, histology, and grade, tumor biology, presence of lymphovascular invasion, and patient age have been shown to impact likelihood of nodal positivity. The aim of this study is to determine whether primary location of invasive disease within the breast is associated with nodal positivity.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with invasive breast cancer undergoing axillary staging from 2010 to 2014 were identified from the National Cancer Data Base. Rates of axillary nodal positivity by primary tumor locations were compared, and multivariable analysis performed using logistic regression to control for factors known to impact nodal positivity.

RESULTS

A total of 599,722 patients met inclusion criteria. Likelihood of nodal positivity was greatest with primary tumors located in the nipple (43.8%), followed by multicentric disease (40.8%), central breast lesions (39.4%), and axillary tail lesions (38.4%). Tumor location remained independently associated with nodal positivity on multivariable analysis adjusting for variables known to affect nodal positivity with odds ratio 2.8 for tumors in the nipple [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.5-3.1], 2.2 for central breast (95% CI: 2.2-2.3), and 2.7 for axillary tail (95% CI: 2.4-2.9). When restricted to patients with clinically negative nodes (n = 430,949), a similar association was seen.

CONCLUSION

Patients with invasive breast cancer located in the nipple, central breast, and axillary tail have the highest risk of positive axillary lymph nodes independent of patient age, tumor grade, biologic subtype, histology, and size. This should be considered along with other factors in preoperative counseling and decision-making regarding plans for axillary lymph node staging.

Preoperative prediction nomogram based on primary tumor miRNAs signature and clinical-related features for axillary lymph node metastasis in early-stage invasive breast cancer

More than half patients who undergo axillary lymph node (ALN) surgery are ALN negative in early-stage invasive breast cancer (EIBC). Thus, to avoid excessive treatment, we aim to establish and validate a novel nomogram model for the preoperative diagnosis of ALN status in patients with EIBC. In total, 864 patients with EIBC from two independent centers were enrolled in our study. For the discovery set, miRNAs expression profiling with functional roles in ALN metastasis was discovered by microarray analysis and validated by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For the training and validation cohorts, we used PCR to quantify miRNAs expression in a model development cohort and assessed miRNAs signature in an internal validation cohort and external independent validation cohort. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to establish a nomogram model for the likelihood of ALN metastasis from miRNAs signature and clinical variables. A signature of nine-miRNA was significantly associated with ALN status. The predictive ability of our nomogram that included miRNAs signature and clinical-related variables (age, tumor size, tumor location and axillary ultrasound-reported ALN status) was significantly greater than a model that only considered clinical-related factors (concordance index: 0.856, 0.796) and also performed well in the two validation cohorts (concordance index: 0.841, 0.747). Our nomogram is a reliable prediction method that can be conveniently used to preoperatively predict ALN status in patients with EIBC. Therefore, after further confirmation in prospective and multicenter clinical trial, omission of axillary surgery may be feasible for some patients with EIBC in the future.

Nomograms for prognostic factors of spinal giant cell tumor combining traditional clinical characteristics with inflammatory biomarkers after gross total resection

Giant cell tumor (GCT) of bone is a common primary bone tumor, which exhibits local aggressiveness and recurrent potential, especially for the spinal lesion. Increasing evidence indicates that inflammation plays a vital role in tumorigenesis and progression. The prognostic value of inflammatory biomarkers in GCT has not been established. A retrospective analysis was conducted in patients with spinal GCT in Changzheng Hospital Orthopedic Oncological Center (CHOOC) between January 2005 and October 2015 and 129 patients were identified eligible. Traditional clinical parameters and inflammatory indexes such as Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and albumin/globulin ratio (AGR) were concluded and analyzed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate the disease-free survival (DFS). Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the prognostic factors. Nomograms were established to predict DFS quantitatively for the first time, and Harrell’s concordance index (c-index) was adopted to evaluate prediction accuracy. As results, the DFS was 78.3% in the cohort. Patients were stratified into 2 groups by NLR (≤ 2.70 and > 2.70), PLR (≤ 215.80 and > 215.80), LMR (≤ 2.80 and >2.80) and AGR (< 1.50 and ≥ 1.50). Patients with NLR > 2.70, PLR > 215.80, LMR ≤ 2.80 and AGR < 1.50 were significantly associated with decreased DFS (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis indicated that treatment history, tumor length, bisphosphonate treatment, NLR and PLR were independent factors of DFS (p < 0.05, respectively). In addition, nomogram on DFS was established according to all significant factors, and c-index was 0.728 (95% CI: 0.710-0.743). Nomograms based on DFS can be recommended as practical models to evaluate prognosis for spinal GCT patients.