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Parker EJ, Weiskopf SR, Oliver RY, Rubenstein MA, Jetz W. Insufficient and biased representation of species geographic responses to climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17408. [PMID: 38984769 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2023] [Revised: 06/12/2024] [Accepted: 06/14/2024] [Indexed: 07/11/2024]
Abstract
The geographic redistributions of species due to a rapidly changing climate are poised to perturb ecological communities and significantly impact ecosystems and human livelihoods. Effectively managing these biological impacts requires a thorough understanding of the patterns and processes of species geographic range shifts. While substantial recent redistributions have been identified and recognized to vary by taxon, region, and range geometry, there are large gaps and biases in the available evidence. Here, we use the largest compilation of geographic range change observations to date, comprised of 33,016 potential redistributions across 12,009 species, to formally assess within- and cross-species coverage and biases and to motivate future data collection. We find that species coverage varies strongly by taxon and underrepresents species at high and low latitudes. Within species, assessments of potential redistributions came from parts of their geographic range that were highly uneven and non-representative. For most species and taxa, studies were strongly biased toward the colder parts of species' distributions and thus significantly underrepresented populations that might get pushed beyond their maximum temperature limits. Coverage of potential leading and trailing geographic range edges under a changing climate was similarly uneven. Only 8% of studied species were assessed at both high and low latitude and elevation range edges, with most only covered at one edge. This suggests that substantial within-species biases exacerbate the considerable geographic and taxonomic among-species unevenness in evidence. Our results open the door for a more quantitative accounting for existing knowledge biases in climate change ecology and a more informed management and conservation. Our findings offer guidance for future data collection that better addresses information gaps and provides a more effective foundation for managing the biological impacts of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Evan J Parker
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Sarah R Weiskopf
- U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, Virginia, USA
| | - Ruth Y Oliver
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, UC Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - Madeleine A Rubenstein
- U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Reston, Virginia, USA
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
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2
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Wang X, Li Z, Zhang L, Wang Y, Liu Y, Ma Y. The optimized Maxent model reveals the pattern of distribution and changes in the suitable cultivation areas for Reaumuria songarica being driven by climate change. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e70015. [PMID: 39026959 PMCID: PMC11255383 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.70015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2024] [Revised: 06/16/2024] [Accepted: 07/03/2024] [Indexed: 07/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Reaumuria songarica, a drought-resistant shrub, is widely distributed and plays a crucial role in the northern deserts of China. It is a key species for desert rehabilitation and afforestation efforts. Using the Maxent model to predict suitable planting areas for R. songarica is an important strategy for combating desertification. With 184 occurrence points of R. songarica and 13 environmental variables, the optimized Maxent model has identified the main limiting factors for its distribution. Distribution patterns and variation trends of R. songarica were projected for current and future climates (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) and different scenarios (ssp_126, ssp_370, and ssp_585). Results show that setting parameters to RM (regulation multiplier) = 4 and FC (feature combination) = LQHPT yields a model with good accuracy and high reliability. Currently, R. songarica is primarily suitable for desert control in eight provinces and autonomous regions, including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, and Ningxia. The total suitable planting area is 148.80 × 104 km2, representing 15.45% of China's land area. Precipitation (Precipitation of the wettest month, Precipitation of the warmest quarter, and Annual precipitation) and Ultraviolet-B seasonality are the primary environmental factors limiting the growth and distribution of R. songarica. Mean temperature of the warmest quarter is the primary factor driving changes in the distribution of suitable areas for R. songarica under future climate scenarios. In future climate scenarios, the suitable planting area of R. songarica will shrink, and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitude, potentially indicate further desertification. The area of highly suitable habitat has increased, while moderately and less suitable habitat areas have decreased. Increased precipitation within R. songarica's water tolerance range is favorable for its growth and reproduction. With changes in the suitable cultivation area for R. songarica, priority should be given to exploring and utilizing its germplasm resources. Introduction and cultivation can be conducted in expanding regions, while scientifically effective measures should be implemented to protect germplasm resources in contracting regions. The findings of this study provide a theoretical basis for addressing desertification resulting from climate change and offer practical insights for the development, utilization, introduction, and cultivation of R. songarica germplasm resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xinyou Wang
- Qinghai Academy of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Adaptive Management on Alpine Grassland, Key Laboratory of Superior Forage Germplasm in the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau, Qinghai UniversityXiningQinghaiChina
| | - Zhengsheng Li
- Qinghai Academy of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Adaptive Management on Alpine Grassland, Key Laboratory of Superior Forage Germplasm in the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau, Qinghai UniversityXiningQinghaiChina
| | - Lijun Zhang
- Qinghai Academy of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Adaptive Management on Alpine Grassland, Key Laboratory of Superior Forage Germplasm in the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau, Qinghai UniversityXiningQinghaiChina
| | - Yanlong Wang
- Qinghai Academy of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Adaptive Management on Alpine Grassland, Key Laboratory of Superior Forage Germplasm in the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau, Qinghai UniversityXiningQinghaiChina
| | - Ying Liu
- Qinghai Academy of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Adaptive Management on Alpine Grassland, Key Laboratory of Superior Forage Germplasm in the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau, Qinghai UniversityXiningQinghaiChina
| | - Yushou Ma
- Qinghai Academy of Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Adaptive Management on Alpine Grassland, Key Laboratory of Superior Forage Germplasm in the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau, Qinghai UniversityXiningQinghaiChina
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3
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Howard C, Marjakangas EL, Morán-Ordóñez A, Milanesi P, Abuladze A, Aghababyan K, Ajder V, Arkumarev V, Balmer DE, Bauer HG, Beale CM, Bino T, Boyla KA, Burfield IJ, Burke B, Caffrey B, Chodkiewicz T, Del Moral JC, Mazal VD, Fernández N, Fornasari L, Gerlach B, Godinho C, Herrando S, Ieronymidou C, Johnston A, Jovicevic M, Kalyakin M, Keller V, Knaus P, Kotrošan D, Kuzmenko T, Leitão D, Lindström Å, Maxhuni Q, Mihelič T, Mikuska T, Molina B, Nagy K, Noble D, Øien IJ, Paquet JY, Pladevall C, Portolou D, Radišić D, Rajkov S, Rajković DZ, Raudonikis L, Sattler T, Saveljić D, Shimmings P, Sjenicic J, Šťastný K, Stoychev S, Strus I, Sudfeldt C, Sultanov E, Szép T, Teufelbauer N, Uzunova D, van Turnhout CAM, Velevski M, Vikstrøm T, Vintchevski A, Voltzit O, Voříšek P, Wilk T, Zurell D, Brotons L, Lehikoinen A, Willis SG. Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability. Nat Commun 2023; 14:4304. [PMID: 37474503 PMCID: PMC10359363 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2022] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine Howard
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
| | - Emma-Liina Marjakangas
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Alejandra Morán-Ordóñez
- Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Forest Science and Tecnology Centre (CTFC), Carretera vella de Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2, 25280, Sant Llorenç de Morunys, Spain
| | - Pietro Milanesi
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
- Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences (BiGeA), University of Bologna, Via F. Selmi 3, 40126, Bologna, Italy
| | - Aleksandre Abuladze
- Institute of Zoology, Ilia State University, Kakutsa Cholokashvili Ave 3 / 5, Tbilisi, 0162, Georgia
| | - Karen Aghababyan
- BirdLinks Armenia (former TSE-Towards Sustainable Ecosystems) NGO, 87b Dimitrov, apt 14, Yerevan, Armenia
| | - Vitalie Ajder
- Society for Birds and Nature Protection, Leova, Republic of Moldova
- Moldova State University, A.Mateevici str. 60, Chişinău, Republic of Moldova
| | - Volen Arkumarev
- Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds/BirdLife Bulgaria, Sofia 1111, Yavorov complex, bl. 71, en. 1, ap. 1, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Dawn E Balmer
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, UK
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Hans-Günther Bauer
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Max-Planck Institute of Animal Behaviour, Am Obstberg 1, 78315, Radolfzell, Germany
| | - Colin M Beale
- York Environmental Sustainability Institute, University of York, York, YO10 5NG, UK
- Department of Biology, University of York, YO10 5DD, York, UK
| | - Taulant Bino
- Albanian Ornithological Society, Rr. "Vaso Pasha", Nd. 4, Apt. 3, 1004, Tirana, Albania
| | - Kerem Ali Boyla
- WWF Turkey, Büyük Postane Caddesi No: 19 Kat: 5, 34420, Bahçekapı-Fatih, İstanbul, Turkey
| | - Ian J Burfield
- BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3QZ, UK
| | - Brian Burke
- BirdWatch Ireland, Unit 20, Block D, Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, Greystones, County Wicklow, Ireland
| | - Brian Caffrey
- BirdWatch Ireland, Unit 20, Block D, Bullford Business Campus, Kilcoole, Greystones, County Wicklow, Ireland
| | - Tomasz Chodkiewicz
- Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Wilcza 64, 00-679, Warszawa, Poland
- Polish Society for the Protection of Birds, Odrowąża 24, 05-270, Marki, Poland
| | - Juan Carlos Del Moral
- Sociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife), Melquiades Biencinto, 34, 28053, Madrid, Spain
| | - Vlatka Dumbovic Mazal
- Institute for Environment and Nature, Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development, Radnicka cesta 80, 10 000, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Néstor Fernández
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Inst. of Biology, Martin Luther Univ. Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany
| | | | - Bettina Gerlach
- DDA-Federation of German Avifaunists, An den Speichern 2, D-48157, Münster, Germany
| | - Carlos Godinho
- MED-Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development; LabOr-Laboratório de Ornitologia Universidade de Évora Pólo da Mitra, Apartado 94, 7002-774, Évora, Portugal
| | - Sergi Herrando
- Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Catalan Ornithological Institute, Natural History Museum of Barcelona, Plaça Leonardo da Vinci 4-5, 08019, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Alison Johnston
- Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | | | - Mikhail Kalyakin
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Zoological Museum of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str., 2, Moscow, 125009, Russia
| | - Verena Keller
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Peter Knaus
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Dražen Kotrošan
- Ornithological society "Naše ptice", Semira Frašte 6, 71 000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
| | - Tatiana Kuzmenko
- Ukrainian Society for the Protection of Birds, P.O. Box 33, Kyiv, 01103, Ukraine
| | - Domingos Leitão
- Sociedade Portuguesa para o Estudo das Aves, Av. Almirante Gago Coutinho, 46A, 1700-031, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Åke Lindström
- Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Qenan Maxhuni
- Kosovo Ornithological Society, Str. Hysni Gashi no. 28, Kalabri, 10 000, Prishtinë, Republic of Kosovo
| | - Tomaž Mihelič
- DOPPS-BirdLife Slovenia, Tržaška c. 2, SI, 1000, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Tibor Mikuska
- Croatian Society for Birds and Nature Protection, Gundulićeva 19a, HR-31000, Osijek, Croatia
| | - Blas Molina
- Sociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife), Melquiades Biencinto, 34, 28053, Madrid, Spain
| | - Károly Nagy
- MME BirdLife Hungary, 1121 Költő u. 21, Budapest, Hungary
| | - David Noble
- British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk, IP24 2PU, UK
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | | | | | - Clara Pladevall
- Andorra Research + Innovation, Av. Rocafort 21-23, AD600, Sant Julià de Lòria, Andorra
| | - Danae Portolou
- Hellenic Ornithological Society / BirdLife Greece, Agiou Konstantinou 52, Athens, 10437, Greece
| | - Dimitrije Radišić
- University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Biology and Ecology, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, Novi Sad, 21000, Serbia
| | - Saša Rajkov
- Center for Biodiversity Research, Maksima Gorkog 40/3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Draženko Z Rajković
- Center for Biodiversity Research, Maksima Gorkog 40/3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Liutauras Raudonikis
- Lithuanian Ornithological Society, Naugarduko st. 47-3, LT-03208, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Thomas Sattler
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, Seerose 1, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland
| | - Darko Saveljić
- Environmental Protection Agency of Montenegro, IV proleterske 19, 81000, Podgorica, Montenegro
| | - Paul Shimmings
- BirdLife Norway. Sandgata 30b, NO-7012, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Jovica Sjenicic
- Ornithological society "Naše ptice", Semira Frašte 6, 71 000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Society for Research and Protection of Biodiversity, Mladena Stojanovica 2, 78 000, Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina
| | - Karel Šťastný
- Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Dept. of Ecology, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6-Suchdol, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Stoycho Stoychev
- Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds/BirdLife Bulgaria, Sofia 1111, Yavorov complex, bl. 71, en. 1, ap. 1, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Iurii Strus
- Nature reserve "Roztochya", Sichovyh Striltsiv 7, 81070, Ivano-Frankove, Ukraine
| | - Christoph Sudfeldt
- DDA-Federation of German Avifaunists, An den Speichern 2, D-48157, Münster, Germany
| | - Elchin Sultanov
- Azerbaijan Ornithological Society, M. Mushfiq 4B, ap.60, Baku, AZ1004, Azerbaijan Republic
| | - Tibor Szép
- MME BirdLife Hungary, 1121 Költő u. 21, Budapest, Hungary
- University of Nyíregyháza, 4400 Sóstói út 31/b, Nyíregyháza, Hungary
| | | | - Danka Uzunova
- Macedonian Ecological Society, Blvd. Boris Trajkovski Str. 7, 9a, Skopje, N, Macedonia
| | - Chris A M van Turnhout
- Sovon-Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
- Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Metodija Velevski
- Macedonian Ecological Society, Blvd. Boris Trajkovski Str. 7, 9a, Skopje, N, Macedonia
| | - Thomas Vikstrøm
- Dansk Ornitologisk Forening (DOF-BirdLife DK), Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Olga Voltzit
- Zoological Museum of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str., 2, Moscow, 125009, Russia
| | - Petr Voříšek
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- Czech Society for Ornithology, Na Bělidle 34, 15000, Prague 5, Czechia
| | - Tomasz Wilk
- Polish Society for the Protection of Birds, Odrowąża 24, 05-270, Marki, Poland
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Lluís Brotons
- Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
- Forest Science and Tecnology Centre (CTFC), Carretera vella de Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2, 25280, Sant Llorenç de Morunys, Spain
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
- CSIC, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Spain
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Atlas Steering Committee, European Bird Census Council, Na Bělidle 34, CZ-150 00, Prague 5, Czech Republic
| | - Stephen G Willis
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
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Srivastava DS, Coristine L, Angert AL, Bontrager M, Amundrud SL, Williams JL, Yeung ACY, Zwaan DR, Thompson PL, Aitken SN, Sunday JM, O'Connor MI, Whitton J, Brown NEM, MacLeod CD, Parfrey LW, Bernhardt JR, Carrillo J, Harley CDG, Martone PT, Freeman BG, Tseng M, Donner SD. Wildcards in climate change biology. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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Venne S, Currie DJ. Can habitat suitability estimated from MaxEnt predict colonizations and extinctions? DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13238] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Simon Venne
- Biology Department University of Ottawa Ottawa ON Canada
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6
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Liu X, Rohr JR, Li X, Deng T, Li W, Li Y. Climate extremes, variability, and trade shape biogeographical patterns of alien species. Curr Zool 2020; 67:393-402. [PMID: 35386252 PMCID: PMC8979237 DOI: 10.1093/cz/zoaa068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2020] [Accepted: 10/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding how alien species assemble is crucial for predicting changes to community
structure caused by biological invasions and for directing management strategies for alien
species, but patterns and drivers of alien species assemblages remain poorly understood
relative to native species. Climate has been suggested as a crucial filter of
invasion-driven homogenization of biodiversity. However, it remains unclear which climatic
factors drive the assemblage of alien species. Here, we compiled global data at both grid
scale (2,653 native and 2,806 current grids with a resolution of
2° × 2°) and administrative scale (271 native and 297
current nations and sub-nations) on the distributions of 361 alien amphibians and reptiles
(herpetofauna), the most threatened vertebrate group on the planet. We found that
geographical distance, a proxy for natural dispersal barriers, was the dominant variable
contributing to alien herpetofaunal assemblage in native ranges. In contrast, climatic
factors explained more unique variation in alien herpetofaunal assemblage after than
before invasions. This pattern was driven by extremely high temperatures and precipitation
seasonality, 2 hallmarks of global climate change, and bilateral trade which can account
for the alien assemblage after invasions. Our results indicated that human-assisted
species introductions combined with climate change may accelerate the reorganization of
global species distributions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xuan Liu
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chaoyang, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Jason R Rohr
- Department of Biological Sciences, Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
| | - Xianping Li
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chaoyang, Beijing 100101, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Teng Deng
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chaoyang, Beijing 100101, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Wenhao Li
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chaoyang, Beijing 100101, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Yiming Li
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chaoyang, Beijing 100101, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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7
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Lenoir J, Bertrand R, Comte L, Bourgeaud L, Hattab T, Murienne J, Grenouillet G. Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land. Nat Ecol Evol 2020; 4:1044-1059. [PMID: 32451428 DOI: 10.1101/765776] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2019] [Accepted: 04/03/2020] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
There is mounting evidence of species redistribution as climate warms. Yet, our knowledge of the coupling between species range shifts and isotherm shifts remains limited. Here, we introduce BioShifts-a global geo-database of 30,534 range shifts. Despite a spatial imbalance towards the most developed regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a taxonomic bias towards the most charismatic animals and plants of the planet, data show that marine species are better at tracking isotherm shifts, and move towards the pole six times faster than terrestrial species. More specifically, we find that marine species closely track shifting isotherms in warm and relatively undisturbed waters (for example, the Central Pacific Basin) or in cold waters subject to high human pressures (for example, the North Sea). On land, human activities impede the capacity of terrestrial species to track isotherm shifts in latitude, with some species shifting in the opposite direction to isotherms. Along elevational gradients, species follow the direction of isotherm shifts but at a pace that is much slower than expected, especially in areas with warm climates. Our results suggest that terrestrial species are lagging behind shifting isotherms more than marine species, which is probably related to the interplay between the wider thermal safety margin of terrestrial versus marine species and the more constrained physical environment for dispersal in terrestrial versus marine habitats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan Lenoir
- Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EDYSAN), UMR7058, CNRS and Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France.
| | - Romain Bertrand
- Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, UMR5321, CNRS and Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier, Moulis, France
- Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique, UMR5174, Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier, CNRS, IRD and UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Lise Comte
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Luana Bourgeaud
- Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique, UMR5174, Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier, CNRS, IRD and UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Tarek Hattab
- MARBEC, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IFREMER and IRD, Sète, France
| | - Jérôme Murienne
- Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique, UMR5174, Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier, CNRS, IRD and UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Gaël Grenouillet
- Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique, UMR5174, Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier, CNRS, IRD and UPS, Toulouse, France
- Institut Universitaire de France, Paris, France
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8
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Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land. Nat Ecol Evol 2020; 4:1044-1059. [PMID: 32451428 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-1198-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 182] [Impact Index Per Article: 45.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2019] [Accepted: 04/03/2020] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
There is mounting evidence of species redistribution as climate warms. Yet, our knowledge of the coupling between species range shifts and isotherm shifts remains limited. Here, we introduce BioShifts-a global geo-database of 30,534 range shifts. Despite a spatial imbalance towards the most developed regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a taxonomic bias towards the most charismatic animals and plants of the planet, data show that marine species are better at tracking isotherm shifts, and move towards the pole six times faster than terrestrial species. More specifically, we find that marine species closely track shifting isotherms in warm and relatively undisturbed waters (for example, the Central Pacific Basin) or in cold waters subject to high human pressures (for example, the North Sea). On land, human activities impede the capacity of terrestrial species to track isotherm shifts in latitude, with some species shifting in the opposite direction to isotherms. Along elevational gradients, species follow the direction of isotherm shifts but at a pace that is much slower than expected, especially in areas with warm climates. Our results suggest that terrestrial species are lagging behind shifting isotherms more than marine species, which is probably related to the interplay between the wider thermal safety margin of terrestrial versus marine species and the more constrained physical environment for dispersal in terrestrial versus marine habitats.
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9
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Fredston-Hermann A, Selden R, Pinsky M, Gaines SD, Halpern BS. Cold range edges of marine fishes track climate change better than warm edges. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:2908-2922. [PMID: 32037696 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2019] [Revised: 12/15/2019] [Accepted: 01/14/2020] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Species around the world are shifting their ranges in response to climate change. To make robust predictions about climate-related colonizations and extinctions, it is vital to understand the dynamics of range edges. This study is among the first to examine annual dynamics of cold and warm range edges, as most global change studies average observational data over space or over time. We analyzed annual range edge dynamics of marine fishes-both at the individual species level and pooled into cold- and warm-edge assemblages-in a multi-decade time-series of trawl surveys conducted on the Northeast US Shelf during a period of rapid warming. We tested whether cold edges show stronger evidence of climate tracking than warm edges (due to non-climate processes or time lags at the warm edge; the biogeography hypothesis or extinction debt hypothesis), or whether they tracked temperature change equally (due to the influence of habitat suitability; the ecophysiology hypothesis). In addition to exploring correlations with regional temperature change, we calculated species- and assemblage-specific sea bottom and sea surface temperature isotherms and used them to predict range edge position. Cold edges shifted further and tracked sea surface and bottom temperature isotherms to a greater degree than warm edges. Mixed-effects models revealed that for a one-degree latitude shift in isotherm position, cold edges shifted 0.47 degrees of latitude, and warm edges shifted only 0.28 degrees. Our results suggest that cold range edges are tracking climate change better than warm range edges, invalidating the ecophysiology hypothesis. We also found that even among highly mobile marine ectotherms in a global warming hotspot, few species are fully keeping pace with climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexa Fredston-Hermann
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
| | - Rebecca Selden
- Department of Biological Sciences, Science Center, Wellesley College, Wellesley, MA, USA
| | - Malin Pinsky
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Steven D Gaines
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
| | - Benjamin S Halpern
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
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10
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López‐Calderón C, Van Wilgenburg SL, Roth AM, Flaspohler DJ, Hobson KA. An evaluation of isotopic (δ
2
H) methods to provide estimates of avian breeding and natal dispersal. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2663] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- C. López‐Calderón
- Department of Zoology Faculty of Biology University of Seville Green Building, Avenue Reina Mercedes Seville E‐41012 Spain
| | | | - Amber M. Roth
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Conservation Biology School of Forest Resources University of Maine Orono Maine USA
| | - David J. Flaspohler
- School of Forest Resources and Environmental Science Michigan Technological University Houghton Michigan USA
| | - Keith A. Hobson
- Science and Technology Branch Environment and Climate Change Canada Saskatoon Saskatchewan S7N 3H5 Canada
- University of Western Ontario London Ontario N6A 5B7 Canada
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11
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Coristine LE, Jacob AL, Schuster R, Otto SP, Baron NE, Bennett NJ, Bittick SJ, Dey C, Favaro B, Ford A, Nowlan L, Orihel D, Palen WJ, Polfus JL, Shiffman DS, Venter O, Woodley S. Informing Canada’s commitment to biodiversity conservation: A science-based framework to help guide protected areas designation through Target 1 and beyond. Facets (Ott) 2018. [DOI: 10.1139/facets-2017-0102] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Biodiversity is intrinsically linked to the health of our planet—and its people. Yet, increasingly, human activities are causing the extinction of species, degrading ecosystems, and reducing nature’s resilience to climate change and other threats. As a signatory to the Convention on Biological Diversity, Canada has a legal responsibility to protect 17% of land and freshwater by 2020. Currently, Canada has protected ∼10% of its terrestrial lands, requiring a marked increase in the pace and focus of protection over the next three years. Given the distribution, extent, and geography of Canada’s current protected areas, systematic conservation planning would provide decision-makers with a ranking of the potential for new protected area sites to stem biodiversity loss and preserve functioning ecosystems. Here, we identify five key principles for identifying lands that are likely to make the greatest contribution to reversing biodiversity declines and ensuring biodiversity persistence into the future. We identify current gaps and integrate principles of protecting ( i) species at risk, ( ii) representative ecosystems, ( iii) intact wilderness, ( iv) connectivity, and ( v) climate refugia. This spatially explicit assessment is intended as an ecological foundation that, when integrated with social, economic and governance considerations, would support evidence-based protected area decision-making in Canada.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura E. Coristine
- Department of Biology, The University of British Columbia - Okanagan Campus, 1177 Research Road, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| | - Aerin L. Jacob
- Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative, 200-1350 Railway Ave., Canmore, AB T1W 1P6, Canada
| | - Richard Schuster
- Department of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
- Natural Resource and Environmental Studies Institute, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC V2N 4Z9, Canada
| | - Sarah P. Otto
- Biodiversity Research Centre & Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, 6270 University Blvd., Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Nancy E. Baron
- COMPASS, National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State St. Santa Barbara, CA 93103, USA
| | - Nathan J. Bennett
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Sarah Joy Bittick
- Biodiversity Research Centre & Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, 6270 University Blvd., Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Cody Dey
- Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research, University of Windsor, 401 Sunset Drive, Windsor, ON N9B 3P4, Canada
| | - Brett Favaro
- School of Fisheries, Fisheries and Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland, 155 Ridge Road, St. John’s, NL A1C 5R3, Canada
| | - Adam Ford
- Department of Biology, The University of British Columbia - Okanagan Campus, 1177 Research Road, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| | - Linda Nowlan
- West Coast Environmental Law, 200-2006 10th Ave, Vancouver, BC V6J 2B3, Canada
| | - Diane Orihel
- School of Environmental Studies and Department of Biology, Queen’s University, 116 Barrie Street, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada
| | - Wendy J. Palen
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Dr., Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - Jean L. Polfus
- Biology Department, Trent University, 2140 East Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada
| | - David S. Shiffman
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Dr., Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada
| | - Oscar Venter
- Natural Resource and Environmental Studies Institute, University of Northern British Columbia, 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC V2N 4Z9, Canada
| | - Stephen Woodley
- IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas, 64 Chemin Juniper, Chelsea, QC J9B 1T3, Canada
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12
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Yalcin S, Leroux SJ. An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:3849-3861. [PMID: 29656456 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2017] [Revised: 03/25/2018] [Accepted: 04/01/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Land-cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981-1985 and 2001-2005 are correlated with land-cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land-cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land-cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land-cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Semra Yalcin
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada
| | - Shawn James Leroux
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada
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13
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Wilson S, Smith AC, Naujokaitis-Lewis I. Opposing responses to drought shape spatial population dynamics of declining grassland birds. DIVERS DISTRIB 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Scott Wilson
- Wildlife Research Division, Environment Canada; National Wildlife Research Centre; Ottawa ON Canada
| | - Adam C. Smith
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada; National Wildlife Research Centre; Ottawa ON Canada
| | - Ilona Naujokaitis-Lewis
- Landscape Science and Technology Division, Environment Canada; National Wildlife Research Centre; Ottawa ON Canada
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14
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Greig EI, Wood EM, Bonter DN. Winter range expansion of a hummingbird is associated with urbanization and supplementary feeding. Proc Biol Sci 2018; 284:rspb.2017.0256. [PMID: 28381617 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2017] [Accepted: 03/06/2017] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic changes to the landscape and climate cause novel ecological and evolutionary pressures, leading to potentially dramatic changes in the distribution of biodiversity. Warm winter temperatures can shift species' distributions to regions that were previously uninhabitable. Further, urbanization and supplementary feeding may facilitate range expansions and potentially reduce migration tendency. Here we explore how these factors interact to cause non-uniform effects across a species's range. Using 17 years of data from the citizen science programme Project FeederWatch, we examined the relationships between urbanization, winter temperatures and the availability of supplementary food (i.e. artificial nectar) on the winter range expansion (more than 700 km northward in the past two decades) of Anna's hummingbirds (Calypte anna). We found that Anna's hummingbirds have colonized colder locations over time, were more likely to colonize sites with higher housing density and were more likely to visit feeders in the expanded range compared to the historical range. Additionally, their range expansion mirrored a corresponding increase over time in the tendency of people to provide nectar feeders in the expanded range. This work illustrates how humans may alter the distribution and potentially the migratory behaviour of species through landscape and resource modification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma I Greig
- Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
| | - Eric M Wood
- Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA.,Department of Biological Sciences, California State University Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90032, USA
| | - David N Bonter
- Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, 159 Sapsucker Woods Road, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
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15
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Harrower WL, Srivastava DS, McCallum C, Fraser LH, Turkington R. Temperate grassland songbird species accumulate incrementally along a gradient of primary productivity. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0186809. [PMID: 29059252 PMCID: PMC5653332 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0186809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2017] [Accepted: 10/06/2017] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Global analyses of bird communities along elevation gradients suggest that bird diversity on arid mountains is primarily limited by water availability, not temperature or altitude. However, the mechanism by which water availability, and subsequently primary productivity, increases bird diversity is still unclear. Here we evaluate two possible mechanisms from species-energy theory. The more individuals hypothesis proposes that a higher availability of resources increases the total number of individuals that can be supported, and therefore the greater number of species that will be sampled. By contrast, the more specialization hypothesis proposes that increasing resource availability will permit specialists to exploit otherwise rare resources, thus increasing total diversity. We used 5 years of surveys of grassland songbird communities along an elevational gradient in British Columbia, Canada, to distinguish between these hypotheses. Vegetation changed markedly in composition along the gradient and contrary to the expectations of the more specialization hypothesis, bird community composition was remarkably constant. However, both total abundance and species richness of birds increased with increasing water availability to plants. When we used rarefaction to correct species richness for differences in total abundance, much of the increase in bird diversity was lost, consistent with the expectations of the more individuals hypothesis. Furthermore, high species richness was associated with reductions in territory size of common bird species, rather than the fine-scale spatial partitioning of the landscape. This suggests that bird diversity increases when greater resource availability allows higher densities rather than greater habitat specialization. These results help explain a pervasive global pattern in bird diversity on arid mountains, and suggest that in such landscapes conservation of grassland birds is strongly linked to climate and hydrology.
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Affiliation(s)
- William L. Harrower
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- Department of Botany & Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | - Diane S. Srivastava
- Department of Zoology & Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Cindy McCallum
- McCallum Environmental Consulting Ltd., Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Lauchlan H. Fraser
- Department of Natural Resource Sciences, Thompson Rivers University, Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Roy Turkington
- Department of Botany & Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
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16
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Huang Q, Sauer JR, Dubayah RO. Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:3610-3622. [PMID: 28295885 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13683] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2016] [Revised: 02/01/2017] [Accepted: 02/28/2017] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr-1 . The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata-level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species-specific approaches to examine contributing factors to recent distributional changes and for comprehensive conservation planning for climate change adaptation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiongyu Huang
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA, USA
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - John R Sauer
- U.S. Geological Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Laurel, MD, USA
| | - Ralph O Dubayah
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
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17
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Robillard CM, Kerr JT. Assessing the shelf life of cost-efficient conservation plans for species at risk across gradients of agricultural land use. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2017; 31:837-847. [PMID: 27991681 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12886] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2016] [Revised: 12/02/2016] [Accepted: 12/13/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
High costs of land in agricultural regions warrant spatial prioritization approaches to conservation that explicitly consider land prices to produce protected-area networks that accomplish targets efficiently. However, land-use changes in such regions and delays between plan design and implementation may render optimized plans obsolete before implementation occurs. To measure the shelf life of cost-efficient conservation plans, we simulated a land-acquisition and restoration initiative aimed at conserving species at risk in Canada's farmlands. We accounted for observed changes in land-acquisition costs and in agricultural intensity based on censuses of agriculture taken from 1986 to 2011. For each year of data, we mapped costs and areas of conservation priority designated using Marxan. We compared plans to test for changes through time in the arrangement of high-priority sites and in the total cost of each plan. For acquisition costs, we measured the savings from accounting for prices during site selection. Land-acquisition costs and land-use intensity generally rose over time independent of inflation (24-78%), although rates of change were heterogeneous through space and decreased in some areas. Accounting for spatial variation in land price lowered the cost of conservation plans by 1.73-13.9%, decreased the range of costs by 19-82%, and created unique solutions from which to choose. Despite the rise in plan costs over time, the high conservation priority of particular areas remained consistent. Delaying conservation in these critical areas may compromise what optimized conservation plans can achieve. In the case of Canadian farmland, rapid conservation action is cost-effective, even with moderate levels of uncertainty in how to implement restoration goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cassandra M Robillard
- Canadian Facility for Ecoinformatics, Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, 30 Marie Curie Pvt., Ottawa, K1N6N5, Canada
| | - Jeremy T Kerr
- Canadian Facility for Ecoinformatics, Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, 30 Marie Curie Pvt., Ottawa, K1N6N5, Canada
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18
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Effect of the Long-Term Mean and the Temporal Stability of Water-Energy Dynamics on China’s Terrestrial Species Richness. ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/ijgi6030058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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