A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of phenology in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower

Conservation Mitonuclear Replacement: Facilitated mitochondrial adaptation for a changing world

Most species will not be able to migrate fast enough to cope with climate change, nor evolve quickly enough with current levels of genetic variation. Exacerbating the problem are anthropogenic influences on adaptive potential, including the prevention of gene flow through habitat fragmentation and the erosion of genetic diversity in small, bottlenecked populations. Facilitated adaptation, or assisted evolution, offers a way to augment adaptive genetic variation via artificial selection, induced hybridization, or genetic engineering. One key source of genetic variation, particularly for climatic adaptation, are the core metabolic genes encoded by the mitochondrial genome. These genes influence environmental tolerance to heat, drought, and hypoxia, but must interact intimately and co-evolve with a suite of important nuclear genes. These coadapted mitonuclear genes form some of the important reproductive barriers between species. Mitochondrial genomes can and do introgress between species in an adaptive manner, and they may co-introgress with nuclear genes important for maintaining mitonuclear compatibility. Managers should consider the relevance of mitonuclear genetic variability in conservation decision-making, including as a tool for facilitating adaptation. I propose a novel technique dubbed Conservation Mitonuclear Replacement (CmNR), which entails replacing the core metabolic machinery of a threatened species-the mitochondrial genome and key nuclear loci-with those from a closely related species or a divergent population, which may be better-adapted to climatic changes or carry a lower genetic load. The most feasible route to CmNR is to combine CRISPR-based nuclear genetic editing with mitochondrial replacement and assisted reproductive technologies. This method preserves much of an organism's phenotype and could allow populations to persist in the wild when no other suitable conservation options exist. The technique could be particularly important on mountaintops, where rising temperatures threaten an alarming number of species with almost certain extinction in the next century.

Resurrected seeds from herbarium specimens reveal rapid evolution of drought resistance in a selfing annual

PREMISE

Increased aridity and drought associated with climate change are exerting unprecedented selection pressures on plant populations. Whether populations can rapidly adapt, and which life history traits might confer increased fitness under drought, remain outstanding questions.

METHODS

We utilized a resurrection ecology approach, leveraging dormant seeds from herbarium collections to assess whether populations of Plantago patagonica from the semi-arid Colorado Plateau have rapidly evolved in response to approximately ten years of intense drought in the region. We quantified multiple traits associated with drought escape and drought resistance and assessed the survival of ancestors and descendants under simulated drought.

RESULTS

Descendant populations displayed a significant shift in resource allocation, in which they invested less in reproductive tissues and relatively more in both above- and below-ground vegetative tissues. Plants with greater leaf biomass survived longer under terminal drought; moreover, even after accounting for the effect of increased leaf biomass, descendant seedlings survived drought longer than their ancestors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results document rapid adaptive evolution in response to climate change in a selfing annual and suggest that shifts in tissue allocation strategies may underlie adaptive responses to drought in arid or semi-arid environments. This work also illustrates a novel approach, documenting that under specific circumstances, seeds from herbarium specimens may provide an untapped source of dormant propagules for future resurrection experiments.

Resurrecting urban sunflowers: Phenotypic and molecular changes between antecedent and modern populations separated by 36 years

Resurrection experiments provide a unique opportunity to evaluate phenotypic and molecular evolution in response to environmental challenges. To understand the evolution of urban populations of Helianthus annuus, we compared plants from 36-year-old antecedent seed collections to modern seed collections from the same area using molecular and quantitative genetic approaches. We found 200 differentially expressed transcripts between antecedent and modern groups, and transcript expression was generally higher in modern samples as compared to antecedent samples. Admixture analysis indicated gene flow from domesticated to modern populations over time. After a greenhouse refresher generation, one antecedent-modern population pair was grown under two water availability (well-watered and drought) and temperature (ambient and elevated by 2.8°C) conditions reflecting historical and contemporary climates. Overall, 78% (7 out of 9) of traits differed between the antecedent and modern populations, with modern individuals displaying some trait changes that are coherent with climate changes expectations and some trait changes in the direction of crop varieties. Phenotypic selection analysis showed that modern trait values were often favoured by selection, especially in environmental treatments resembling modern conditions. Trait heritability in the antecedent population was five times as high as in the modern population, on average. In addition, phenotypic plasticity for some traits, such as flowering phenology, was present in the antecedent population but absent in the modern population. The combination of phenotypic and molecular information suggests that evolution has been influenced by crop-wild introgression, adaptive processes and drift. We discuss these results in the context of continued evolution in response to anthropogenic factors.

Rapid evolution during climate change: demographic and genetic constraints on adaptation to severe drought

Populations often vary in their evolutionary responses to a shared environmental perturbation. A key hurdle in building more predictive models of rapid evolution is understanding this variation-why do some populations and traits evolve while others do not? We combined long-term demographic and environmental data, estimates of quantitative genetic variance components, a resurrection experiment and individual-based evolutionary simulations to gain mechanistic insights into contrasting evolutionary responses to a severe multi-year drought. We examined five traits in two populations of a native California plant, Clarkia xantiana, at three time points over 7 years. Earlier flowering phenology evolved in only one of the two populations, though both populations experienced similar drought severity and demographic declines and were estimated to have considerable additive genetic variance for flowering phenology. Pairing demographic and experimental data with evolutionary simulations suggested that while seed banks in both populations probably constrained evolutionary responses, a stronger seed bank in the non-evolving population resulted in evolutionary stasis. Gene flow through time via germ banks may be an important, underappreciated control on rapid evolution in response to extreme environmental perturbations.

Water and nutrient availability exert selection on reproductive phenology

PREMISE

Global change has changed resource availability to plants, which could shift the adaptive landscape. We hypothesize that novel water and nutrient availability combinations alter patterns of natural selection on reproductive phenology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) and influence the evolution of local adaptation.

METHODS

We conducted a multifactorial greenhouse study using 35 accessions of B. stricta sourced from a broad elevational gradient in the Rocky Mountains. We exposed full siblings to three soil water and two nutrient availability treatment levels, reflecting current and projected future conditions. In addition, we quantified fitness (seed count) and four phenological traits: the timing of first flowering, the duration of flowering, and height and leaf number at flowering.

RESULTS

Selection favored early flowering and longer duration of flowering, and the genetic correlation between these traits accorded with the direction of selection. In most treatments, we found selection for increased height, but selection on leaf number depended on water availability, with selection favoring more leaves in well-watered conditions and fewer leaves under severe drought. Low-elevation genotypes had the greatest fitness under drought stress, consistent with local adaptation.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence of strong selection on these heritable traits. Furthermore, the direction and strength of selection on size at flowering depended on the variable measured (height vs. leaf number). Finally, selection often favored both early flowering and a longer duration of flowering. Selection on these two components of phenology can be difficult to disentangle due to tight genetic correlations.

The influence of genetic architecture on responses to selection under drought in rice

Accurately predicting responses to selection is a major goal in biology and important for successful crop breeding in changing environments. However, evolutionary responses to selection can be constrained by such factors as genetic and cross‐environment correlations, linkage, and pleiotropy, and our understanding of the extent and impact of such constraints is still developing. Here, we conducted a field experiment to investigate potential constraints to selection for drought resistance in rice (Oryza sativa) using phenotypic selection analysis and quantitative genetics. We found that traits related to drought response were heritable, and some were under selection, including selection for earlier flowering, which could allow drought escape. However, patterns of selection generally were not opposite under wet and dry conditions, and we did not find individual or closely linked genes that influenced multiple traits, indicating a lack of evidence that antagonistic pleiotropy, linkage, or cross‐environment correlations would constrain selection for drought resistance. In most cases, genetic correlations had little influence on responses to selection, with direct and indirect selection largely congruent. The exception to this was seed mass under drought, which was predicted to evolve in the opposite direction of direct selection due to correlations. Because of this indirect effect on selection on seed mass, selection for drought resistance was not accompanied by a decrease in seed mass, and yield increased with fecundity. Furthermore, breeding lines with high fitness and yield under drought also had high fitness and yield under wet conditions, indicating that there was no evidence for a yield penalty on drought resistance. We found multiple genes in which expression influenced both water use efficiency (WUE) and days to first flowering, supporting a genetic basis for the trade‐off between drought escape and avoidance strategies. Together, these results can provide helpful guidance for understanding and managing evolutionary constraints and breeding stress‐resistant crops.

Spatial variation in high temperature-regulated gene expression predicts evolution of plasticity with climate change in the scarlet monkeyflower

A major way that organisms can adapt to changing environmental conditions is by evolving increased or decreased phenotypic plasticity. In the face of current global warming, more attention is being paid to the role of plasticity in maintaining fitness as abiotic conditions change over time. However, given that temporal data can be challenging to acquire, a major question is whether evolution in plasticity across space can predict adaptive plasticity across time. In growth chambers simulating two thermal regimes, we generated transcriptome data for western North American scarlet monkeyflowers (Mimulus cardinalis) collected from different latitudes and years (2010 and 2017) to test hypotheses about how plasticity in gene expression is responding to increases in temperature, and if this pattern is consistent across time and space. Supporting the genetic compensation hypothesis, individuals whose progenitors were collected from the warmer-origin northern 2017 descendant cohort showed lower thermal plasticity in gene expression than their cooler-origin northern 2010 ancestors. This was largely due to a change in response at the warmer (40°C) rather than cooler (20°C) treatment. A similar pattern of reduced plasticity, largely due to a change in response at 40°C, was also found for the cooler-origin northern versus the warmer-origin southern population from 2017. Our results demonstrate that reduced phenotypic plasticity can evolve with warming and that spatial and temporal changes in plasticity predict one another.

Dissecting impacts of phenological shifts for performance across biological scales

Although phenological shifts in response to climate are often assumed to benefit species' performance and viability, phenology's role in allowing population persistence and mediating species-level responses in the face of climate change remain unclear. Here, we develop a framework to understand when and why phenological shifts at three biological scales will influence performance: individuals, populations, and macroecological patterns. Specifically, we highlight three underexplored assumptions: (i) individual variability in phenology does not affect population fitness; (ii) population growth rates are sensitive to vital rates affected by phenology; and (iii) phenology mediates species-level responses to climate change including patterns of extinction, invasion, and range shifts. We outline promising methods for understanding how phenological shifts will influence performance within and across biological scales.

Rules of Plant Species Ranges: Applications for Conservation Strategies

Earth is changing rapidly and so are many plant species’ ranges. Here, we synthesize eco-evolutionary patterns found in plant range studies and how knowledge of species ranges can inform our understanding of species conservation in the face of global change. We discuss whether general biogeographic “rules” are reliable and how they can be used to develop adaptive conservation strategies of native plant species across their ranges. Rules considered include (1) factors that set species range limits and promote range shifts; (2) the impact of biotic interactions on species range limits; (3) patterns of abundance and adaptive properties across species ranges; (4) patterns of gene flow and their implications for genetic rescue, and (5) the relationship between range size and conservation risk. We conclude by summarizing and evaluating potential species range rules to inform future conservation and management decisions. We also outline areas of research to better understand the adaptive capacity of plants under environmental change and the properties that govern species ranges. We advise conservationists to extend their work to specifically consider peripheral and novel populations, with a particular emphasis on small ranges. Finally, we call for a global effort to identify, synthesize, and analyze prevailing patterns or rules in ecology to help speed conservation efforts.

Rapid divergent evolution of an annual plant across a latitudinal gradient revealed by seed resurrection

Global change is expected to drive short-term evolution of natural populations. However, it remains unclear whether different populations are changing in unison. Here, we study contemporary evolution of growth-related and reproductive traits of three populations of Cyanus segetum facing warming and pollinator decline across a latitudinal gradient in France. We resurrected stored seeds sampled up to 24 years apart from northern, central-western, and southern populations and conducted an in situ common-garden experiment. To disentangle neutral from selection-driven differentiation, we calculated neutral genetic differentiation (F_ST ) and quantitative trait differentiation (Q_ST ) between temporal samples. We found that phenotypic evolution was divergent across populations exhibiting different trends for rosette size, date of flowering, and capitula size. By measuring seed set as a proxy of fitness, we showed that samples with larger mean capitula size outperformed samples with smaller mean capitula size in the western and southern populations. Regression of traits on seed set showed that flowering date and capitula size are the primary determinants of fitness, and Q_ST -F_ST comparisons indicated that natural selection has likely contributed to the shifts in flowering phenology and rosette size. These findings outline the potential for rescue of natural populations through contemporary evolution and emphasize the complex interplay between spatial and temporal variation in species' responses to global change.