Patterns of tree mortality in a temperate deciduous forest derived from a large forest dynamics plot

Intermediate disturbances are a key driver of long-term tree demography across old-growth temperate forests

Disentangling the relative influence of background versus disturbance related mortality on forest demography is crucial for understanding long-term dynamics and predicting the influence of global change on forests. Quantifying the rates and drivers of tree demography requires direct observations of tree populations over multiple decades, yet such studies are rare in old-growth forest, particularly in the temperate zone of Europe. We use multi-decade (1980-2020) monitoring of permanent plots, including observations of mode of mortality and disturbance events, to quantify rates and drivers of tree demography across a network of old-growth remnants in temperate mountain forests of Slovenia. Annual rates of mortality and recruitment varied markedly among sites and over time; census intervals that captured intermediate severity canopy disturbances caused subtle peaks in annual mortality (e.g., >2%/year), while rates of background mortality in non-disturbed intervals averaged about 1%/year. Roughly half of the trees died from modes of mortality associated with disturbance (i.e., uprooting or snapped-alive). Results of a Bayesian multilevel model indicate that beech (Fagus sylvatica) had a higher likelihood of disturbance related mortality compared to fir (Abies alba), which mainly died standing, and there was a notable increase in the odds of disturbance mortality with increasing diameter for all species. Annual recruitment rates were consistently low at sites (<0.5%) that lacked evidence of disturbance, but often exceeded 3% on sites with higher levels of past canopy mortality. Recruitment was dominated by beech on sites with more diffuse background mortality, while the less shade tolerant maple (Acer pseudoplatanus) recruited following known disturbance events. Our study highlights the important role of stand-scale, partial canopy disturbance for long-term forest demography. These results suggest that subtle climate-driven changes in the regime of intermediate severity disturbances could have an important influence on future forest dynamics and warrant attention.

Interspecific variation in mortality and growth and changes in their relationship with size class in an old-growth temperate forest

Understanding trade-offs between demographic parameters is crucial when investigating community assembly rules in high-diversity forests. To this end, we estimated mortality and growth parameters, and correlations among them, across entire size classes for 17 tree species (Betula, Carpinus, Fagus, Quercus, Castanea, Acer, Cerasus, Swida, Kalopanax, and Styrax) using a dataset over 18 years obtained from an old-growth forest in Japan.Size classes were represented by 12 categories determined by age, height, and diameter at breast height (DBH) from new seedlings to stems of DBH >85 cm. We derived the annual mortality and growth for each species and class using estimates of transition probabilities between classes. Trade-offs or synergies in growth and survival among species per size class were analyzed with and without the inclusion of phylogenetic relationships.Annual mortality showed U-shaped patterns across size classes for species that could potentially reach a DBH ≥55 cm: 0.2-0.98 for seedlings, 0.002-0.01 at DBH 35-45 cm, and ca. 0.01 at DBH ≥55 cm. Other species demonstrated monotonically decreasing mortality toward specific maximum size classes. When phylogenetic information was included in analyses, the correlations between survival and growth changed across size classes were significant for some classes: As an overall tendency, synergy was observed in growth and survival for seedling to sapling classes, trade-offs for juvenile to DBH 15-25 cm classes, and synergy again for larger classes. When phylogenetic information was not included, a significant trade-off was observed only at DBH 5-15 cm. Synthesis. Trade-offs at intermediate classes imply differentiation in demographic characteristics related to life history strategies. However, evolutionarily obtained demographic characteristics are not substantial drivers of niche differentiation in the study area. The polylemma of mortality, growth, and other parameters such as the onset of reproduction may also be important factors driving species-specific demographic traits.

Tree height and leaf drought tolerance traits shape growth responses across droughts in a temperate broadleaf forest

As climate change drives increased drought in many forested regions, mechanistic understanding of the factors conferring drought tolerance in trees is increasingly important. The dendrochronological record provides a window through which we can understand how tree size and traits shape growth responses to droughts. We analyzed tree-ring records for 12 species in a broadleaf deciduous forest in Virginia (USA) to test hypotheses for how tree height, microenvironment characteristics, and species' traits shaped drought responses across the three strongest regional droughts over a 60-yr period. Drought tolerance (resistance, recovery, and resilience) decreased with tree height, which was strongly correlated with exposure to higher solar radiation and evaporative demand. The potentially greater rooting volume of larger trees did not confer a resistance advantage, but marginally increased recovery and resilience, in sites with low topographic wetness index. Drought tolerance was greater among species whose leaves lost turgor (wilted) at more negative water potentials and experienced less shrinkage upon desiccation. The tree-ring record reveals that tree height and leaf drought tolerance traits influenced growth responses during and after significant droughts in the meteorological record. As climate change-induced droughts intensify, tall trees with drought-sensitive leaves will be most vulnerable to immediate and longer-term growth reductions.

Recovery of logged forest fragments in a human-modified tropical landscape during the 2015-16 El Niño

The past 40 years in Southeast Asia have seen about 50% of lowland rainforests converted to oil palm and other plantations, and much of the remaining forest heavily logged. Little is known about how fragmentation influences recovery and whether climate change will hamper restoration. Here, we use repeat airborne LiDAR surveys spanning the hot and dry 2015-16 El Niño Southern Oscillation event to measure canopy height growth across 3,300 ha of regenerating tropical forests spanning a logging intensity gradient in Malaysian Borneo. We show that the drought led to increased leaf shedding and branch fall. Short forest, regenerating after heavy logging, continued to grow despite higher evaporative demand, except when it was located close to oil palm plantations. Edge effects from the plantations extended over 300 metres into the forests. Forest growth on hilltops and slopes was particularly impacted by the combination of fragmentation and drought, but even riparian forests located within 40 m of oil palm plantations lost canopy height during the drought. Our results suggest that small patches of logged forest within plantation landscapes will be slow to recover, particularly as ENSO events are becoming more frequent.

It is unclear whether tropical forest fragments within plantation landscapes are resilient to drought. Here the authors analyse LiDAR and ground-based data from the 2015-16 El Niño event across a logging intensity gradient in Borneo. Although regenerating forests continued to grow, canopy height near oil palm plantations decreased, and a strong edge effect extended up to at least 300 m away.

Forest responses to simulated elevated CO2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO₂ ) is predicted to increase growth rates of forest trees. The extent to which increased growth translates to changes in biomass is dependent on the turnover time of the carbon, and thus tree mortality rates. Size- or age-dependent mortality combined with increased growth rates could result in either decreased carbon turnover from a speeding up of tree life cycles, or increased biomass from trees reaching larger sizes, respectively. However, most vegetation models currently lack any representation of size- or age-dependent mortality and the effect of eCO₂ on changes in biomass and carbon turnover times is thus a major source of uncertainty in predictions of future vegetation dynamics. Using a reduced-complexity form of the vegetation demographic model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator to simulate an idealised tropical forest, we find increases in biomass despite reductions in carbon turnover time in both size- and age-dependent mortality scenarios in response to a hypothetical eCO₂ -driven 25% increase in woody net primary productivity (wNPP). Carbon turnover times decreased by 9.6% in size-dependent mortality scenarios due to a speeding up of tree life cycles, but also by 2.0% when mortality was age-dependent, as larger crowns led to increased light competition. Increases in aboveground biomass (AGB) were much larger when mortality was age-dependent (24.3%) compared with size-dependent (13.4%) as trees reached larger sizes before death. In simulations with a constant background mortality rate, carbon turnover time decreased by 2.1% and AGB increased by 24.0%, however, absolute values of AGB and carbon turnover were higher than in either size- or age-dependent mortality scenario. The extent to which AGB increases and carbon turnover decreases will thus depend on the mechanisms of large tree mortality: if increased size itself results in elevated mortality rates, then this could reduce by about half the increase in AGB relative to the increase in wNPP.

Carbon Dynamics in a Human-Modified Tropical Forest: A Case Study Using Multi-Temporal LiDAR Data

Tropical forests hold significant amounts of carbon and play a critical role on Earth´s climate system. To date, carbon dynamics over tropical forests have been poorly assessed, especially over vast areas of the tropics that have been affected by some type of disturbance (e.g., selective logging, understory fires, and fragmentation). Understanding the multi-temporal dynamics of carbon stocks over human-modified tropical forests (HMTF) is crucial to close the carbon cycle balance in the tropics. Here, we used multi-temporal and high-spatial resolution airborne LiDAR data to quantify rates of carbon dynamics over a large patch of HMTF in eastern Amazon, Brazil. We described a robust approach to monitor changes in aboveground forest carbon stocks between 2012 and 2018. Our results showed that this particular HMTF lost 0.57 m·yr−1 in mean forest canopy height and 1.38 Mg·C·ha−1·yr−1 of forest carbon between 2012 and 2018. LiDAR-based estimates of Aboveground Carbon Density (ACD) showed progressive loss through the years, from 77.9 Mg·C·ha−1 in 2012 to 53.1 Mg·C·ha−1 in 2018, thus a decrease of 31.8%. Rates of carbon stock changes were negative for all time intervals analyzed, yielding average annual carbon loss rates of −1.34 Mg·C·ha−1·yr−1. This suggests that this HMTF is acting more as a source of carbon than a sink, having great negative implications for carbon emission scenarios in tropical forests. Although more studies of forest dynamics in HMTFs are necessary to reduce the current remaining uncertainties in the carbon cycle, our results highlight the persistent effects of carbon losses for the study area. HMTFs are likely to expand across the Amazon in the near future. The resultant carbon source conditions, directly associated with disturbances, may be essential when considering climate projections and carbon accounting methods.

Temporal population variability in local forest communities has mixed effects on tree species richness across a latitudinal gradient

Among the local processes that determine species diversity in ecological communities, fluctuation-dependent mechanisms that are mediated by temporal variability in the abundances of species populations have received significant attention. Higher temporal variability in the abundances of species populations can increase the strength of temporal niche partitioning but can also increase the risk of species extinctions, such that the net effect on species coexistence is not clear. We quantified this temporal population variability for tree species in 21 large forest plots and found much greater variability for higher latitude plots with fewer tree species. A fitted mechanistic model showed that among the forest plots, the net effect of temporal population variability on tree species coexistence was usually negative, but sometimes positive or negligible. Therefore, our results suggest that temporal variability in the abundances of species populations has no clear negative or positive contribution to the latitudinal gradient in tree species richness.

Calculation of narrower confidence intervals for tree mortality rates when we know nothing but the location of the death/survival events

Many ecological applications, like the study of mortality rates, require the estimation of proportions and confidence intervals for them. The traditional way of doing this applies the binomial distribution, which describes the outcome of a series of Bernoulli trials. This distribution assumes that observations are independent and the probability of success is the same for all the individual observations. Both assumptions are obviously false in many cases.I show how to apply bootstrap and the Poisson binomial distribution (a generalization of the binomial distribution) to the estimation of proportions. Any information at the individual level would result in better (narrower) confidence intervals around the estimation of proportions. As a case study, I applied this method to the calculation of mortality rates in a forest plot of tropical trees in Lambir Hills National Park, Malaysia.I calculated central estimates and 95% confidence intervals for species-level mortality rates for 1,007 tree species. I used a very simple model of spatial dependence in survival to estimate individual-level risk of mortality. The results obtained by accounting for heterogeneity in individual-level risk of mortality were comparable to those obtained with the binomial distribution in terms of central estimates, but the precision increased in virtually all cases, with an average reduction in the width of the confidence interval of ~20%.Spatial information allows the estimation of individual-level probabilities of survival, and this increases the precision in the estimates of mortality rates. The general method described here, with modifications, could be applied to reduce uncertainty in the estimation of proportions related to any spatially structured phenomenon with two possible outcomes. More sophisticated approaches can yield better estimates of individual-level mortality and thus narrower confidence intervals.

Growing season moisture drives interannual variation in woody productivity of a temperate deciduous forest

The climate sensitivity of forest ecosystem woody productivity (ANPP_stem ) influences carbon cycle responses to climate change. For the first time, we combined long-term annual growth and forest census data of a diverse temperate broadleaf deciduous forest, seeking to resolve whether ANPP_stem is primarily moisture- or energy-limited and whether climate sensitivity has changed in recent decades characterised by more mesic conditions and elevated CO₂ . We analysed tree-ring chronologies across 109 yr of monthly climatic variation (1901-2009) for 14 species representing 97% of ANPP_stem in a 25.6 ha plot in northern Virginia, USA. Radial growth of most species and ecosystem-level ANPP_stem responded positively to cool, moist growing season conditions, but the same conditions in the previous May-July were associated with reduced growth. In recent decades (1980-2009), responses were more variable and, on average, weaker. Our results indicated that woody productivity is primarily limited by current growing season moisture, as opposed to temperature or sunlight, but additional complexity in climate sensitivity may reflect the use of stored carbohydrate reserves. Overall, while such forests currently display limited moisture sensitivity, their woody productivity is likely to decline under projected hotter and potentially drier growing season conditions.

Crown damage and the mortality of tropical trees

What causes individual tree death in tropical forests remains a major gap in our understanding of the biology of tropical trees and leads to significant uncertainty in predicting global carbon cycle dynamics. We measured individual characteristics (diameter at breast height, wood density, growth rate, crown illumination and crown form) and environmental conditions (soil fertility and habitat suitability) for 26 425 trees ≥ 10 cm diameter at breast height belonging to 416 species in a 52-ha plot in Lambir Hills National Park, Malaysia. We used structural equation models to investigate the relationships among the different factors and tree mortality. Crown form (a proxy for mechanical damage and other stresses) and prior growth were the two most important factors related to mortality. The effect of all variables on mortality (except habitat suitability) was substantially greater than expected by chance. Tree death is the result of interactions between factors, including direct and indirect effects. Crown form/damage and prior growth mediated most of the effect of tree size, wood density, fertility and habitat suitability on mortality. Large-scale assessment of crown form or status may result in improved prediction of individual tree death at the landscape scale.