Quantifying Aedes aegypti dispersal in space and time: a modeling approach

Spatial and temporal analysis on the impact of ultra-low volume indoor insecticide spraying on Aedes aegypti household density

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti is the primary mosquito vector for several arboviruses, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses, which cause frequent outbreaks of human disease in tropical and subtropical regions. Control of these outbreaks relies on vector control, commonly in the form of insecticide sprays that target adult female mosquitoes. However, the spatial coverage and frequency of sprays needed to optimize effectiveness are unclear. In this study, we characterize the effect of ultra-low-volume (ULV) indoor spraying of pyrethroid insecticides on Ae. aegypti abundance within households. We also evaluate the effects of spray events during recent time periods or in neighboring households. Improved understanding of the duration and distance of the impact of a spray intervention on Ae. aegypti populations can inform vector control interventions, in addition to modeling efforts that contrast vector control strategies.

METHODS

This project analyzes data from two large-scale experiments that involved six cycles of indoor pyrethroid spray applications in 2 years in the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We developed spatial multi-level models to disentangle the reduction in Ae. aegypti abundance that resulted from (i) recent ULV treatment within households and (ii) ULV treatment of adjacent or nearby households. We compared fits of models across a range of candidate weighting schemes for the spray effect, based on different temporal and spatial decay functions to understand lagged ULV effects.

RESULTS

Our results suggested that the reduction of Ae. aegypti in a household was mainly due to spray events occurring within the same household, with no additional effect of sprays that occurred in neighboring households. Effectiveness of a spray intervention should be measured based on time since the most recent spray event, as we found no cumulative effect of sequential sprays. Based on our model, we estimated the spray effect is reduced by 50% approximately 28 days after the spray event.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction of Ae. aegypti in a household was mainly determined by the number of days since the last spray intervention in that same household, highlighting the importance of spray coverage in high-risk areas with a spray frequency determined by local viral transmission dynamics.

Efficacy of Wolbachia-based mosquito control: Predictions of a spatially discrete mathematical model

Wolbachia is an endosymbiont bacterium present in many insect species. When Wolbachia-carrying male Aedes aegypti mosquitoes mate with non-carrier females, their embryos are not viable due to cytoplasmic incompatibility. This phenomenon has been exploited successfully for the purpose of controlling mosquito populations and the spread of mosquito-borne illnesses: Wolbachia carriers are bred and released into the environment. Because Wolbachia is not harmful to humans, this method of mosquito control is regarded as a safer alternative to pesticide spraying. In this article, we introduce a mathematical framework for exploring (i) whether a one-time release of Wolbachia carriers can elicit a sustained presence of carriers near the release site, and (ii) the extent to which spatial propagation of carriers may allow them to establish fixation in other territories. While some prior studies have formulated mosquito dispersal models using advection-reaction-diffusion PDEs, the predictive power of such models requires careful ecological mapping: advection and diffusion coefficients exhibit significant spatial dependence due to heterogeneity of resources and topography. Here, we adopt a courser-grained view, regarding the environment as a network of discrete, diffusively-coupled "habitats"-distinct zones of high mosquito density such as stagnant ponds. We extend two previously published single-habitat mosquito models to multiple habitats, and calculate rates of migration between pairs of habitats using dispersal kernels. Our primary results are quantitative estimates regarding how the success of carrier fixation in one or more habitats is determined by: the number of carriers released, sizes of habitats, distances between habitats, and the rate of migration between habitats. Besides yielding sensible and potentially useful predictions regarding the success of Wolbachia-based control, our framework applies to other approaches (e.g., gene drives) and contexts beyond the realm of insect pest control.

Understanding the joint evolution of dispersal and host specialisation using phytophagous arthropods as a model group

Theory generally predicts that host specialisation and dispersal should evolve jointly. Indeed, many models predict that specialists should be poor dispersers to avoid landing on unsuitable hosts while generalists will have high dispersal abilities. Phytophagous arthropods are an excellent group to test this prediction, given extensive variation in their host range and dispersal abilities. Here, we explore the degree to which the empirical literature on this group is in accordance with theoretical predictions. We first briefly outline the theoretical reasons to expect such a correlation. We then report empirical studies that measured both dispersal and the degree of specialisation in phytophagous arthropods. We find a correlation between dispersal and levels of specialisation in some studies, but with wide variation in this result. We then review theoretical attributes of species and environment that may blur this correlation, namely environmental grain, temporal heterogeneity, habitat selection, genetic architecture, and coevolution between plants and herbivores. We argue that theoretical models fail to account for important aspects, such as phenotypic plasticity and the impact of selective forces stemming from other biotic interactions, on both dispersal and specialisation. Next, we review empirical caveats in the study of this interplay. We find that studies use different measures of both dispersal and specialisation, hampering comparisons. Moreover, several studies do not provide independent measures of these two traits. Finally, variation in these traits may occur at scales that are not being considered. We conclude that this correlation is likely not to be expected from large-scale comparative analyses as it is highly context dependent and should not be considered in isolation from the factors that modulate it, such as environmental scale and heterogeneity, intrinsic traits or biotic interactions. A stronger crosstalk between theoretical and empirical studies is needed to understand better the prevalence and basis of the correlation between dispersal and specialisation.

Defining the roles of local precipitation and anthropogenic water sources in driving the abundance of Aedes aegypti, an emerging disease vector in urban, arid landscapes

Understanding drivers of disease vectors' population dynamics is a pressing challenge. For short-lived organisms like mosquitoes, landscape-scale models must account for their highly local and rapid life cycles. Aedes aegypti, a vector of multiple emerging diseases, has become abundant in desert population centers where water from precipitation could be a limiting factor. To explain this apparent paradox, we examined Ae. aegypti abundances at > 660 trapping locations per year for 3 years in the urbanized Maricopa County (metropolitan Phoenix), Arizona, USA. We created daily precipitation layers from weather station data using a kriging algorithm, and connected localized daily precipitation to numbers of mosquitoes trapped at each location on subsequent days. Precipitation events occurring in either of two critical developmental periods for mosquitoes were correlated to suppressed subsequent adult female presence and abundance. LASSO models supported these analyses for female presence but not abundance. Precipitation may explain 72% of Ae. aegypti presence and 90% of abundance, with anthropogenic water sources supporting mosquitoes during long, precipitation-free periods. The method of using kriging and weather station data may be generally applicable to the study of various ecological processes and patterns, and lead to insights into microclimates associated with a variety of organisms' life cycles.

A protocol for evaluating the entomological impact of larval source reduction on mosquito vectors at hotel compounds in Zanzibar

There is an increasing awareness of the association between tourism activity and risks of emerging mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) worldwide. In previous studies we showed that hotels in Zanzibar may play an important role in maintaining residual foci of mosquito vectors populations of public health concern. These findings indicated larval sources removal (LSR) interventions may have a significant negative impact on vector communities. However, a thorough analysis of the response vector species to potential LSM strategies must be evaluated prior to implementation of a large-scale area-wide control campaign. Here we propose a protocol for evaluation of the impact of LSR against mosquito vectors at hotel settings in Zanzibar. This protocol is set to determine the efficacy of LSR in a randomized control partial cross-over experimental design with four hotel compounds representing the unit of randomization for allocation of interventions. However, the protocol can be applied to evaluate the impact of LRS in more than four sites. Proposed interventions are active removal of disposed containers, and installation of water dispenser to replace single use discarded plastic water bottles, which were identified as the most important source of mosquitoes studied hotels. The ideal time for allocating intervention to the intervention arms the dry season, when the mosquito abundance is predictably lower. The possible impact of interventions on mosquito occurrence and abundance risks is then evaluated throughout subsequent rainy and dry seasons. If an appreciable reduction in mosquito abundance and occurrence risks is observed during the trial period, intervention could be extended to the control arm to determine whether any potential reduction of mosquito density is reproducible. A rigorous evaluation of the proposed LRS interventions will inspire large scale trials and provide support for evidence-based mosquito management at hotel facilities in Zanzibar and similar settings.

Genomic profiling of climate adaptation in Aedes aegypti along an altitudinal gradient in Nepal indicates nongradual expansion of the disease vector

Driven by globalization, urbanization and climate change, the distribution range of invasive vector species has expanded to previously colder ecoregions. To reduce health-threatening impacts on humans, insect vectors are extensively studied. Population genomics can reveal the genomic basis of adaptation and help to identify emerging trends of vector expansion. By applying whole genome analyses and genotype-environment associations to populations of the main dengue vector Aedes aegypti, sampled along an altitudinal gradient in Nepal (200-1300 m), we identify putatively adaptive traits and describe the species' genomic footprint of climate adaptation to colder ecoregions. We found two differentiated clusters with significantly different allele frequencies in genes associated to climate adaptation between the highland population (1300 m) and all other lowland populations (≤800 m). We revealed nonsynonymous mutations in 13 of the candidate genes associated to either altitude, precipitation or cold tolerance and identified an isolation-by-environment differentiation pattern. Other than the expected gradual differentiation along the altitudinal gradient, our results reveal a distinct genomic differentiation of the highland population. Local high-altitude adaptation could be one explanation of the population's phenotypic cold tolerance. Carrying alleles relevant for survival under colder climate increases the likelihood of this highland population to a worldwide expansion into other colder ecoregions.

dynamAedes: a unified modelling framework for invasive Aedes mosquitoes

Mosquito species belonging to the genus Aedes have attracted the interest of scientists and public health officers because of their capacity to transmit viruses that affect humans. Some of these species were brought outside their native range by means of trade and tourism and then colonised new regions thanks to a unique combination of eco-physiological traits. Considering mosquito physiological and behavioural traits to understand and predict their population dynamics is thus a crucial step in developing strategies to mitigate the local densities of invasive Aedes populations. Here, we synthesised the life cycle of four invasive Aedes species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Ae. japonicus and Ae. koreicus) in a single multi-scale stochastic modelling framework which we coded in the R package dynamAedes. We designed a stage-based and time-discrete stochastic model driven by temperature, photo-period and inter-specific larval competition that can be applied to three different spatial scales: punctual, local and regional. These spatial scales consider different degrees of spatial complexity and data availability by accounting for both active and passive dispersal of mosquito species as well as for the heterogeneity of the input temperature data. Our overarching aim was to provide a flexible, open-source and user-friendly tool rooted in the most updated knowledge on the species' biology which could be applied to the management of invasive Aedes populations as well as to more theoretical ecological inquiries.

A sterile insect technique pilot trial on Captiva Island: defining mosquito population parameters for sterile male releases using mark-release-recapture

Background

The sterile insect technique (SIT), which involves area-wide inundative releases of sterile insects to suppress the reproduction of a target species, has proven to be an effective pest control method. The technique demands the continuous release of sterilized insects in quantities that ensure a high sterile male:wild male ratio for the suppression of the wild population over succeeding generations.

Methods

For these releases, it is important to determine several ecological and biological population parameters, including the longevity of the released males in the field, the dispersal of the released males and the wild pest population size. The Lee County Mosquito Control District initiated a study in a 47-ha portion of Captiva Island (Florida, USA), an island with a total area of 230 ha, to define biological SIT parameters for Aedes aegypti (L.), an invasive disease-vectoring mosquito known to be difficult to control due to a combination of daytime biting activity, use of cryptic breeding habitats that are difficult to target with conventional night-time ultra-low volume methods, and emerging resistance to commonly used insecticides. Another goal was to assess patterns of dispersal and survival for laboratory-reared sterile Ae. aegypti males released over time in the pilot site. These parameters will be used to evaluate the efficacy of a SIT suppression program for Ae. aegypti on Captiva Island.

Results

Over the course of seven mark-release-recapture studies using single- and multiple-point releases, 190,504 sterile marked males were released, for which the recapture rate was 1.5% over a mean period of 12 days. The mean distance traveled by sterile males of the local strain of Ae. aegypti that has colonized Captiva Island was 201.7 m from the release point, with an observed maximum traveled distance of 404.5 m. The released sterile mosquitoes had a probability of daily survival of 0.67 and an average life expectancy of ~ 2.46 days.

Conclusions

These data together with the population size estimate and sterile:wild ratio provide a solid basis for planning the SIT operational phase which is aimed at mosquito population suppression.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05512-3.

A Mark-Release-Recapture Study to Estimate Field Performance of Imported Radio-Sterilized Male Aedes albopictus in Albania

The pathogen transmitting Aedes albopictus mosquito is spreading rapidly in Europe, putting millions of humans and animals at risk. This species is well-established in Albania since its first detection in 1979. The sterile insect technique (SIT) is increasingly gaining momentum worldwide as a component of area-wide-integrated pest management. However, estimating how the sterile males will perform in the field and the size of target populations is crucial for better decision-making, designing and elaborating appropriate SIT pilot trials, and subsequent large-scale release strategies. A mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiment was carried out in Albania within a highly urbanized area in the city of Tirana. The radio-sterilized adults of Ae. albopictus Albania strain males were transported by plane from Centro Agricoltura Ambiente (CAA) mass-production facility (Bologna, Italy), where they were reared. In Albania, sterile males were sugar-fed, marked with fluorescent powder, and released. The aim of this study was to estimate, under field conditions, their dispersal capacity, probability of daily survival and competitiveness, and the size of the target population. In addition, two adult mosquito collection methods were also evaluated: BG-Sentinel traps baited with BG-Lure and CO_2, (BGS) versus human landing catch (HLC). The overall recapture rates did not differ significantly between the two methods (2.36% and 1.57% of the total male released were recaptured respectively by BGS and HLC), suggesting a similar trapping efficiency under these conditions. Sterile males traveled a mean distance of 93.85 ± 42.58 m and dispersed up to 258 m. Moreover, they were observed living in the field up to 15 days after release with an average life expectancy of 4.26 ± 0.80 days. Whether mosquitoes were marked with green, blue, yellow, or pink, released at 3.00 p.m. or 6.00 p.m., there was no significant difference in the recapture, dispersal, and survival rates in the field. The Fried competitiveness index was estimated at 0.28. This mark-release-recapture study provided important data for better decision-making and planning before moving to pilot SIT trials in Albania. Moreover, it also showed that both BG-traps and HLC were successful in monitoring adult mosquitoes and provided similar estimations of the main entomological parameters needed.

Mark-release-recapture of male Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): Use of rhodamine B to estimate movement, mating and population parameters in preparation for an incompatible male program

Rapid advances in biological and digital support systems are revolutionizing the population control of invasive disease vectors such as Aedes aegypti. Methods such as the sterile and incompatible insect techniques (SIT/IIT) rely on modified males to seek out and successfully mate with females, and in doing so outcompete the wild male population for mates. Currently, these interventions most frequently infer mating success through area-wide population surveillance and estimates of mating competitiveness are rare. Furthermore, little is known about male Ae. aegypti behaviour and biology in field settings. In preparation for a large, community scale IIT program, we undertook a series of mark- release-recapture experiments using rhodamine B to mark male Ae. aegypti sperm and measure mating interactions with females. We also developed a Spatial and Temporally Evolving Isotropic Kernel (STEIK) framework to assist researchers to estimate the movement of individuals through space and time. Results showed that ~40% of wild females captured daily were unmated, suggesting interventions will need to release males multiple times per week to be effective at suppressing Ae. aegypti populations. Males moved rapidly through the landscape, particularly when released during the night. Although males moved further than what is typically observed in females of the species, survival was considerably lower. These unique insights improve our understanding of mating interactions in wild Ae. aegypti populations and lay the foundation for robust suppression strategies in the future.

Incompatible insect techniques for controlling populations of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti, utilize the mating biology of adult male mosquitoes to achieve suppression through a sterilization process. As the study of Ae. aegypti control has typically focused on adult female mosquitoes, knowledge on male movement, survival and mating interactions in the field is lacking. Here we undertook several mark-release-recapture experiments on adult male Ae. aegypti in Innisfail, Australia, and measured important biological parameters. For the first time in large field experiments, we employed rhodamine B as a marker that when fed to adult males, identified both marked males and the wild females they mated with. We observed males moving further through the landscape, but surviving for a shorter period, than previous measurements undertaken on females in a field setting. A high proportion (~40%) of unmated females suggests individuals are constantly available for mating. As such, sterile male strategies may need to release at regular intervals to achieve effective population suppression. The unique insights provided by this study will assist in designing future sterile male field interventions.

The evolutionary dynamics of biological invasions: A multi-approach perspective

Biological invasions, the establishment and spread of non-native species in new regions, can have extensive economic and environmental consequences. Increased global connectivity accelerates introduction rates, while climate and land-cover changes may decrease the barriers to invasive populations spread. A detailed knowledge of the invasion history, including assessing source populations, routes of spread, number of independent introductions, and the effects of genetic bottlenecks and admixture on the establishment success, adaptive potential, and further spread, is crucial from an applied perspective to mitigate socioeconomic impacts of invasive species, as well as for addressing fundamental questions on the evolutionary dynamics of the invasion process. Recent advances in genomics together with the development of geographic information systems provide unprecedented large genetic and environmental datasets at global and local scales to link population genomics, landscape ecology, and species distribution modeling into a common framework to study the invasion process. Although the factors underlying population invasiveness have been extensively reviewed, analytical methods currently available to optimally combine molecular and environmental data for inferring invasive population demographic parameters and predicting further spreading are still under development. In this review, we focus on the few recent insect invasion studies that combine different datasets and approaches to show how integrating genetic, observational, ecological, and environmental data pave the way to a more integrative biological invasion science. We provide guidelines to study the evolutionary dynamics of invasions at each step of the invasion process, and conclude on the benefits of including all types of information and up-to-date analytical tools from different research areas into a single framework.

Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) against Aedes Species Mosquitoes: A Roadmap and Good Practice Framework for Designing, Implementing and Evaluating Pilot Field Trials

Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti are invasive mosquito species that impose a substantial risk to human health. To control the abundance and spread of these arboviral pathogen vectors, the sterile insect technique (SIT) is emerging as a powerful complement to most commonly-used approaches, in part, because this technique is ecologically benign, specific, and non-persistent in the environment if releases are stopped. Because SIT and other similar vector control strategies are becoming of increasing interest to many countries, we offer here a pragmatic and accessible 'roadmap' for the pre-pilot and pilot phases to guide any interested party. This will support stakeholders, non-specialist scientists, implementers, and decision-makers. Applying these concepts will ensure, given adequate resources, a sound basis for local field trialing and for developing experience with the technique in readiness for potential operational deployment. This synthesis is based on the available literature, in addition to the experience and current knowledge of the expert contributing authors in this field. We describe a typical path to successful pilot testing, with the four concurrent development streams of Laboratory, Field, Stakeholder Relations, and the Business and Compliance Case. We provide a graphic framework with criteria that must be met in order to proceed.

A simple and reliable method for longitudinal assessment of untethered mosquito induced flight activity

Aedes aegypti adult females are key vectors of several arboviruses and flight activity plays a central role in mosquito biology and disease transmission. Available methods to quantify mosquito flight usually require special devices and mostly assess spontaneous locomotor activity at individual level. Here, we developed a new method to determine longitudinal untethered adult A. aegypti induced flight activity: the INduced FLight Activity TEst (INFLATE). This method was an adaptation of the "rapid iterative negative geotaxis" assay to assess locomotor activity in Drosophila and explore the spontaneous behavior of mosquitoes to fly following a physical stimulus. Insects were placed on a plastic cage previously divided in four vertical quadrants and flight performance was carried out by tapping cages towards the laboratory bench. After one minute, the number of insects per quadrant was registered by visual inspection and categorized in five different scores. By using INFLATE, we observed that flight performance was not influenced by repeated testing, sex or 5% ethanol intake. However, induced flight activity was strongly affected by aging, blood meal and inhibition of mitochondrial complex I. This simple and rapid method allows the longitudinal assessment of induced flight activity of multiple untethered mosquitoes and may contribute to a better understanding of A. aegypti dispersal biology.

Using spatial genetics to quantify mosquito dispersal for control programs

Background

Hundreds of millions of people get a mosquito-borne disease every year and nearly one million die. Transmission of these infections is primarily tackled through the control of mosquito vectors. The accurate quantification of mosquito dispersal is critical for the design and optimization of vector control programs, yet the measurement of dispersal using traditional mark-release-recapture (MRR) methods is logistically challenging and often unrepresentative of an insect’s true behavior. Using Aedes aegypti (a major arboviral vector) as a model and two study sites in Singapore, we show how mosquito dispersal can be characterized by the spatial analyses of genetic relatedness among individuals sampled over a short time span without interruption of their natural behaviors.

Results

Using simple oviposition traps, we captured adult female Ae. aegypti across high-rise apartment blocks and genotyped them using genome-wide SNP markers. We developed a methodology that produces a dispersal kernel for distance which results from one generation of successful breeding (effective dispersal), using the distance separating full siblings and 2nd- and 3rd-degree relatives (close kin). The estimated dispersal distance kernel was exponential (Laplacian), with a mean dispersal distance (and dispersal kernel spread σ) of 45.2 m (95% CI 39.7–51.3 m), and 10% probability of a dispersal > 100 m (95% CI 92–117 m). Our genetically derived estimates matched the parametrized dispersal kernels from previous MRR experiments. If few close kin are captured, a conventional genetic isolation-by-distance analysis can be used, as it can produce σ estimates congruent with the close-kin method if effective population density is accurately estimated. Genetic patch size, estimated by spatial autocorrelation analysis, reflects the spatial extent of the dispersal kernel “tail” that influences, for example, the critical radii of release zones and the speed of Wolbachia spread in mosquito replacement programs.

Conclusions

We demonstrate that spatial genetics can provide a robust characterization of mosquito dispersal. With the decreasing cost of next-generation sequencing, the production of spatial genetic data is increasingly accessible. Given the challenges of conventional MRR methods, and the importance of quantified dispersal in operational vector control decisions, we recommend genetic-based dispersal characterization as the more desirable means of parameterization.

Landscape does matter: Disentangling founder effects from natural and human-aided post-introduction dispersal during an ongoing biological invasion

Environmental features impacting the spread of invasive species after introduction can be assessed using population genetic structure as a quantitative estimation of effective dispersal at the landscape scale. However, in the case of an ongoing biological invasion, deciphering whether genetic structure represents landscape connectivity or founder effects is particularly challenging. We examined the modes of dispersal (natural and human-aided) and the factors (landscape or founders history) shaping genetic structure in range edge invasive populations of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, in the region of Grenoble (Southeast France). Based on detailed occupancy-detection data and environmental variables (climatic, topographic and land-cover), we modelled A. albopictus potential suitable area and its expansion history since first introduction. The relative role of dispersal modes was estimated using biological dispersal capabilities and landscape genetics approaches using genome-wide SNP dataset. We demonstrate that both natural and human-aided dispersal have promoted the expansion of populations. Populations in diffuse urban areas, representing highly suitable habitat for A. albopictus, tend to disperse less, while roads facilitate long-distance dispersal. Yet, demographic bottlenecks during introduction played a major role in shaping the genetic variability of these range edge populations. The present study is one of the few investigating the role of founder effects and ongoing expansion processes in shaping spatial patterns of genetic variation in an invasive species at the landscape scale. The combination of several dispersal modes and large proportions of continuous suitable habitats for A. albopictus promoted range filling of almost its entire potential distribution in the region of Grenoble only few years after introduction.