Joint estimation of growth and survival from mark-recapture data to improve estimates of senescence in wild populations

Comparative analysis of animal lifespan

Comparative studies of aging are a promising approach to identifying general properties of and processes leading to aging. While to date, many comparative studies of aging in animals have focused on relatively narrow species groups, methodological innovations now allow for studies that include evolutionary distant species. However, comparative studies of aging across a wide range of species that have distinct life histories introduce additional challenges in experimental design. Here, we discuss these challenges, highlight the most pressing problems that need to be solved, and provide suggestions based on current approaches to successfully carry out comparative aging studies across the animal kingdom.

Sex-specific innate immunity and ageing in long-lived fresh water turtles (Kinosternon flavescens: Kinosternidae)

BACKGROUND

The progressive deregulation of the immune system with age, termed immunosenescence, has been well studied in mammalian systems, but studies of immune function in long-lived, wild, non-mammalian populations are scarce. In this study we leverage a 38-year mark-recapture study to quantify the relationships among age, sex, survival, reproductive output and the innate immune system in a long-lived reptile, yellow mud turtles (Kinosternon flavescens; Testudines; Kinosternidae).

METHODS

We estimated rates of survival and age-specific mortality by sex based on mark-recapture data for 1530 adult females and 860 adult males over 38 years of captures. We analyzed bactericidal competence (BC), and two immune responses to foreign red blood cells - natural antibody-mediated haemagglutination (NAbs), and complement-mediated haemolysis ability (Lys) - in 200 adults (102 females; 98 males) that ranged from 7 to 58 years of age captured in May 2018 during their emergence from brumation, and for which reproductive output and long-term mark-recapture data were available.

RESULTS

We found that females are smaller and live longer than males in this population, but the rate of accelerating mortality across adulthood is the same for both sexes. In contrast, males exhibited higher innate immunity than females for all three immune variables we measured. All immune responses also varied inversely with age, indicating immunosenescence. For females that reproduced in the preceding reproductive season, egg mass (and therefore total clutch mass) increased with age,. In addition to immunosenescence of bactericidal competence, females that produced smaller clutches also had lower bactericidal competence.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to the general vertebrate pattern of lower immune responses in males than females (possibly reflecting the suppressive effects of androgens), we found higher levels of all three immune variables in males. In addition, contrary to previous work that found no evidence of immunosenescence in painted turtles or red-eared slider turtles, we found a decrease in bactericidal competence, lysis ability, and natural antibodies with age in yellow mud turtles.

Life span, growth, senescence and island syndrome: Accounting for imperfect detection and continuous growth

Small vertebrates on islands are expected to attain a larger body size, and a greater survival than their mainland counterparts. Comparative studies have questioned whether lizards exhibit this set of adaptations, referred to as the 'island syndrome'. We collected data on 730 individuals the endemic Lilford's lizard Podarcis lilfordi throughout a 10-year period on a small island of the Balearic archipelago (Spain). We coupled a growth function with a capture-mark-recapture model to simultaneously estimate size- and sex-dependent growth rate and survival. To put our results into a wider context, we conducted a systematic review of growth, life span and age at maturity in different Podarcis species comparing insular and mainland populations. We found a low average growth coefficient (0.56 and 0.41 year^-1 for males and females to reach an asymptotic size of 72.3 and 65.6 mm respectively), a high annual survival probability of 0.81 and 0.79 in males and females, and a large variability between individuals in growth parameters. Survival probability decreased with body size in both sexes, indicating a senescence pattern typical of long-lived species or in populations with a low extrinsic mortality. Assuming a constant survival after sexual maturity, at about 2 years old, the average life span was 6.18 years in males and 8.99 in females. The oldest animal was a male last captured at an estimated age of ≥13 years and still alive at the end of the study. Our results agree with the predictions of the 'island syndrome' for survival, life span and growth parameters. A comparative analysis of these values across 29 populations of 16 different species of Podarcis indicated that insular lizards grow slower and live longer than their mainland counterparts. However, our data differed from other island populations of the same species, suggesting that island-specific characteristics play an additional role to isolation. Within this study we developed an analytical approach to study the body size-dependent survival of small reptiles. We discuss its applicability to contrast hypotheses on senescence in different sexes of this species, and provide the code used to integrate the growth and capture-mark-recapture models.

Diverse aging rates in ectothermic tetrapods provide insights for the evolution of aging and longevity

Comparative studies of mortality in the wild are necessary to understand the evolution of aging; yet, ectothermic tetrapods are underrepresented in this comparative landscape, despite their suitability for testing evolutionary hypotheses. We present a study of aging rates and longevity across wild tetrapod ectotherms, using data from 107 populations (77 species) of nonavian reptiles and amphibians. We test hypotheses of how thermoregulatory mode, environmental temperature, protective phenotypes, and pace of life history contribute to demographic aging. Controlling for phylogeny and body size, ectotherms display a higher diversity of aging rates compared with endotherms and include phylogenetically widespread evidence of negligible aging. Protective phenotypes and life-history strategies further explain macroevolutionary patterns of aging. Analyzing ectothermic tetrapods in a comparative context enhances our understanding of the evolution of aging.

Integrating growth and survival models for flexible estimation of size-dependent survival in a cryptic, endangered snake

Estimates of demographic rates for animal populations and individuals have many applications for ecological and conservation research. In many animals, survival is size-dependent, but estimating the form of the size-survival relationship presents challenges. For elusive species with low recapture rates, individuals' size will be unknown at many points in time. Integrating growth and capture-mark-recapture models in a Bayesian framework empowers researchers to impute missing size data, with uncertainty, and include size as a covariate of survival, capture probability, and presence on-site. If there is no theoretical expectation for the shape of the size-survival relationship, spline functions can allow for fitting flexible, data-driven estimates. We use long-term capture-mark-recapture data from the endangered San Francisco gartersnake (Thamnophis sirtalis tetrataenia) to fit an integrated growth-survival model. Growth models showed that females reach longer asymptotic lengths than males and that the magnitude of sexual size dimorphism differed among populations. The capture probability and availability of San Francisco gartersnakes for capture increased with snout-vent length. The survival rate of female snakes exhibits a nonlinear relationship with snout-vent length (SVL), with survival flat between 300 mm and 550 mm SVL before decreasing for females between 550 mm and 700 mm SVL. For male snakes, survival decreased for adult males >550 mm SVL. The survival rates of the smallest and largest San Francisco gartersnakes were highly uncertain because recapture rates were very low for these sizes. By integrating growth and survival models and using penalized splines, we found support for size-dependent survival in San Francisco gartersnakes. Our results have applications for devising management activities for this endangered subspecies, and our methods could be applied broadly to the study of size-dependent demography among animals.

Sex-specific aging in animals: Perspective and future directions

Sex differences in aging occur in many animal species, and they include sex differences in lifespan, in the onset and progression of age-associated decline, and in physiological and molecular markers of aging. Sex differences in aging vary greatly across the animal kingdom. For example, there are species with longer-lived females, species where males live longer, and species lacking sex differences in lifespan. The underlying causes of sex differences in aging remain mostly unknown. Currently, we do not understand the molecular drivers of sex differences in aging, or whether they are related to the accepted hallmarks or pillars of aging or linked to other well-characterized processes. In particular, understanding the role of sex-determination mechanisms and sex differences in aging is relatively understudied. Here, we take a comparative, interdisciplinary approach to explore various hypotheses about how sex differences in aging arise. We discuss genomic, morphological, and environmental differences between the sexes and how these relate to sex differences in aging. Finally, we present some suggestions for future research in this area and provide recommendations for promising experimental designs.

Context-dependent fitness costs of reproduction despite stable body mass costs in an Arctic herbivore

The cost of reproduction on demographic rates is often assumed to operate through changing body condition. Several studies have found that reproduction depresses body mass more if the current conditions are severe, such as high population densities or adverse weather, than under benign environmental conditions. However, few studies have investigated the association between the fitness components and body mass costs of reproduction. Using 25 years of individual-based capture-recapture data from Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, we built a novel Bayesian state-space model that jointly estimated interannual change in mass, annual reproductive success and survival, while accounting for incomplete observations. The model allowed us to partition the differential effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on both non-reproductive mass change and the body mass cost of reproduction, and to quantify their consequences on demographic rates. Contrary to our expectation, the body mass cost of reproduction (mean = -5.8 kg) varied little between years (CV = 0.08), whereas the between-year variation in body mass changes, that were independent of the previous year's reproductive state, varied substantially (CV = 0.4) in relation to autumn temperature and the amount of rain-on-snow in winter. This body mass loss led to a cost of reproduction on the next reproduction, which was amplified by the same environmental covariates, from a 10% reduction in reproductive success in benign years, to a 50% reduction in harsh years. The reproductive mass loss also resulted in a small reduction in survival. Our results show how demographic costs of reproduction, driven by interannual fluctuations in individual body condition, result from the balance between body mass costs of reproduction and body mass changes that are independent of previous reproductive state. We illustrate how a strong context-dependent fitness cost of reproduction can occur, despite a relatively fixed body mass cost of reproduction. This suggests that female reindeer display a very conservative energy allocation strategy, either aborting their reproductive attempt at an early stage or weaning at a relatively constant cost. Such a strategy might be common in species living in a highly stochastic and food limited environment.

Age-structured Jolly-Seber model expands inference and improves parameter estimation from capture-recapture data

Understanding the influence of individual attributes on demographic processes is a key objective of wildlife population studies. Capture-recapture and age data are commonly collected to investigate hypotheses about survival, reproduction, and viability. We present a novel age-structured Jolly-Seber model that incorporates age and capture-recapture data to provide comprehensive information on population dynamics, including abundance, age-dependent survival, recruitment, age structure, and population growth rates. We applied our model to a multi-year capture-recapture study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada (2012–2018), where management and conservation require a detailed understanding of how polar bears respond to climate change and other factors. In simulation studies, the age-structured Jolly-Seber model improved precision of survival, recruitment, and annual abundance estimates relative to standard Jolly-Seber models that omit age information. Furthermore, incorporating age information improved precision of population growth rates, increased power to detect trends in abundance, and allowed direct estimation of age-dependent survival and changes in annual age structure. Our case study provided detailed evidence for senescence in polar bear survival. Median survival estimates were lower (<0.95) for individuals aged <5 years, remained high (>0.95) for individuals aged 7–22 years, and subsequently declined to near zero for individuals >30 years. We also detected cascading effects of large recruitment classes on population age structure, which created major shifts in age structure when these classes entered the population and then again when they reached prime breeding ages (10–15 years old). Overall, age-structured Jolly-Seber models provide a flexible means to investigate ecological and evolutionary processes that shape populations (e.g., via senescence, life expectancy, and lifetime reproductive success) while improving our ability to investigate population dynamics and forecast population changes from capture-recapture data.

A hidden Markov model for estimating age-specific survival when age and size are uncertain

Estimates of age‐specific survival probabilities are needed for age‐structured population models and to inform conservation decisions. However, determining the age of individuals in wildlife populations is often problematic. We present a hidden Markov model for estimating age‐specific survival from capture–recapture or capture–recapture–recovery data when age is unknown and indicators of age, such as size and growth layer counts, are imprecise. The model is evaluated through simulations, and its implementation is illustrated with maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches in commonly used software. The model is then applied to genetic capture–recapture data of Florida manatees to estimate age‐ and time‐variant survival probabilities. The approach is broadly applicable to studies aiming to quantify age‐specific effects of environmental change and management actions on population dynamics, including studies that rely on minimally invasive methods such as genetic and photo identification.

Age Predicts Risky Investment Better Than Residual Reproductive Value

AbstractLife-history theory predicts that investment in reproduction should increase as future reproductive potential (i.e., residual reproductive value [RRV]) decreases. Researchers have thus intuitively used age as a proxy for RRV and assume that RRV decreases with age when interpreting age-specific investment. Yet age is an imperfect proxy for RRV and may even be a poor correlate in some systems. We used a 31-year study of the nesting ecology of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) to assess how age and RRV compare in explaining variation in a risky investment behavior. We predicted that RRV would be a better predictor of risky investment than age because RRV accounts for variation in future reproductive potential across life. We found that RRV was high in early life, slowly decreased until midlife, and then steadily decreased to terminal reproduction. However, age predicted risky behavior better than RRV. This finding suggests that stronger correlates of age (e.g., size) may be more responsible for this behavior in turtles. This study highlights that researchers should not assume that age-specific investment is driven by RRV and that future work should quantify RRV to more directly test this key element of life-history theory.

Immunosenescence and its influence on reproduction in a long-lived vertebrate

Immunosenescence is a well-known phenomenon in mammal systems, but its relevance in other long-lived vertebrates is less understood. Further, the influence of age and reproductive effort on immune function in long-lived species can be challenging to assess, as long-term data are scarce and it is often difficult to sample the oldest age classes. We used the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) to test hypotheses of immunosenescence and a trade-off between reproductive output and immune function in a population of a long-lived vertebrate that has been monitored for over 30 years. These long-term data were utilized to employ a unique approach of aging turtles with mark-recapture data and population-specific growth modeling to obtain more accurate estimates of age. We analyzed natural antibodies, lysis ability and bactericidal competence in 126 individuals from 1 to 33 years of age captured during May and June 2011. Older turtles exhibited greater natural antibody levels than young individuals. Young females with large clutches exhibited greater lysis ability, while older females with large clutches had decreased lysis ability, suggesting a trade-off between reproductive output and immune function conditional upon age. However, bactericidal competence increased later in the nesting season for older females. Our study rejects the hypothesis of immunosenescence in a long-lived turtle, despite evidence of actuarial and reproductive senescence in this population. Additionally, we detected mixed evidence for a trade-off between reproduction and immune health.

The untapped potential of reptile biodiversity for understanding how and why animals age

1. The field of comparative aging biology has greatly expanded in the past 20 years. Longitudinal studies of populations of reptiles with a range of maximum lifespans have accumulated and been analyzed for evidence of mortality senescence and reproductive decline. While not as well represented in studies of amniote senescence, reptiles have been the subjects of many recent demographic and mechanistic studies of the biology of aging. 2. We review recent literature on reptile demographic senescence, mechanisms of senescence, and identify unanswered questions. Given the ecophysiological and demographic diversity of reptiles, what is the expected range of reptile senescence rates? Are known mechanisms of aging in reptiles consistent with canonical hallmarks of aging in model systems? What are the knowledge gaps in our understanding of reptile aging? 3. We find ample evidence of increasing mortality with advancing age in many reptiles. Testudines stand out as slower aging than other orders, but data on crocodilians and tuatara are sparse. Sex-specific analyses are generally not available. Studies of female reproduction suggest that reptiles are less likely to have reproductive decline with advancing age than mammals. 4. Reptiles share many physiological and molecular pathways of aging with mammals, birds, and laboratory model organisms. Adaptations related to stress physiology coupled with reptilian ectothermy suggest novel comparisons and contrasts that can be made with canonical aging phenotypes in mammals. These include stem cell and regeneration biology, homeostatic mechanisms, IIS/TOR signaling, and DNA repair. 5. To overcome challenges to the study of reptile aging, we recommend extending and expanding long-term monitoring of reptile populations, developing reptile cell lines to aid cellular biology, conducting more comparative studies of reptile morphology and physiology sampled along relevant life-history axes, and sequencing more reptile genomes for comparative genomics. Given the diversity of reptile life histories and adaptations, achieving these directives will likely greatly benefit all aging biology.