Outpatient versus inpatient worsening heart failure: distinguishing biology and risk from location of care

Developing Clinical Risk Prediction Models for Worsening Heart Failure Events and Death by Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction

Background There is a need to develop electronic health record-based predictive models for worsening heart failure (WHF) events across clinical settings and across the spectrum of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Methods and Results We studied adults with heart failure (HF) from 2011 to 2019 within an integrated health care delivery system. WHF encounters were ascertained using natural language processing and structured data. We conducted boosted decision tree ensemble models to predict 1-year hospitalizations, emergency department visits/observation stays, and outpatient encounters for WHF and all-cause death within each LVEF category: HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (LVEF <40%), HF with mildly reduced EF (LVEF 40%-49%), and HF with preserved EF (LVEF ≥50%). Model discrimination was evaluated using area under the curve and calibration using mean squared error. We identified 338 426 adults with HF: 61 045 (18.0%) had HF with reduced EF, 49 618 (14.7%) had HF with mildly reduced EF, and 227 763 (67.3%) had HF with preserved EF. The 1-year risks of any WHF event and death were, respectively, 22.3% and 13.0% for HF with reduced EF, 17.0% and 10.1% for HF with mildly reduced EF, and 16.3% and 10.3% for HF with preserved EF. The WHF model displayed an area under the curve of 0.76 and mean squared error of 0.13, whereas the model for death displayed an area under the curve of 0.83 and mean squared error of 0.076. Performance and predictors were similar across WHF encounter types and LVEF categories. Conclusions We developed risk prediction models for 1-year WHF events and death across the LVEF spectrum using structured and unstructured electronic health record data and observed no substantial differences in model performance or predictors except for death, despite differences in underlying HF cause.

Implementing Guideline-Directed Medical Therapy for Heart Failure: JACC Focus Seminar 1/3

Despite the availability of lifesaving guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), there remain major gaps in utilization of these therapies among eligible patients. Simultaneous with these gaps in quality of care, HFrEF continues as a leading cause of death and hospitalization with associated clinical risk far exceeding most other cardiovascular and noncardiovascular conditions. In the context of this urgent need to improve provision of appropriate therapy, multiple lines of evidence support various implementation strategies. Such strategies include in-hospital initiation of GDMT, simultaneous or rapid sequence initiation of GDMT, participation in quality improvement registries to assess site performance and provide feedback, multidisciplinary titration clinics, virtual consult teams, reduction of cost-sharing, remote algorithm-based medication optimization, electronic health record-based interventions, and direct-to-patient educational initiatives. This review describes and contextualizes the evidence surrounding each of these potential avenues for improving use of foundational GDMTs for patients with HFrEF.

Worsening Heart Failure: Nomenclature, Epidemiology, and Future Directions: JACC Review Topic of the Week

Heart failure (HF) is a progressive disease characterized by variable durations of symptomatic stability often punctuated by episodes of worsening despite continued therapy. These periods of clinical worsening are increasingly recognized as a distinct phase in the history of HF, termed worsening HF (WHF). The definition of WHF continues to evolve from a historical focus solely on hospitalization to now include nonhospitalization events (eg, need for intravenous diuretic therapy in the emergency or outpatient setting). Most HF clinical trials to date have had HF hospitalization and death as primary endpoints, and only recently, some studies have included other WHF events regardless of location of care. This article reviews the evolution of the WHF definition, highlights the importance of considering the onset of WHF as an event that marks a new phase of HF, summarizes the latest clinical trials investigating novel therapies, and outlines unmet needs regarding identification and treatment of WHF.

Diuretic Changes, Health Care Resource Utilization, and Clinical Outcomes for Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: From the Change the Management of Patients With Heart Failure Registry

BACKGROUND

Diuretics are a mainstay therapy for the symptomatic treatment of heart failure. However, in contemporary US outpatient practice, the degree to which diuretic dosing changes over time and the associations with clinical outcomes and health care resource utilization are unknown.

METHODS

Among 3426 US outpatients with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction in the Change the Management of Patients with Heart Failure registry with complete medication data and who were prescribed a loop diuretic, diuretic dose increase was defined as: (1) change to a total daily dose higher than their previous total daily dose, (2) addition of metolazone to the regimen, (3) change from furosemide to either bumetanide or torsemide, and the change persists for at least 7 days. Adjusted hazard ratios or rate ratios along with 95% CIs were reported for clinical outcomes among patients with an increase in oral diuretic dose versus no increase in diuretic dose.

RESULTS

Overall, 796 (23%) had a diuretic dose increase (18 episodes per 100 patient-years). The proportion of patients with dyspnea at rest (38% versus 26%), dyspnea at exertion (79% versus 67%), orthopnea (32% versus 21%), edema (60% versus 43%), and weight gain (40% versus 23%) were significantly (all P <0.001) higher in the diuretic increase group. Baseline angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker (hazard ratio, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.65-0.87]) use were associated with lower likelihood of diuretic increase over time. Patients with a diuretic dose increase had a significantly higher number of heart failure hospitalizations (rate ratio, 2.53 [95% CI, 2.10-3.05]), emergency department visits (rate ratio, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.56-2.17]), and home health visits (rate ratio, 1.88 [95% CI, 1.39-2.54]), but not all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 0.89-1.36]). Similarly, greater furosemide dose equivalent increases were associated with greater resource utilization but not with mortality, compared with smaller increases.

CONCLUSIONS

In this contemporary US registry, 1 in 4 patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction had outpatient escalation of diuretic therapy over longitudinal follow-up, and these patients were more likely to have sign/symptoms of congestion. Outpatient diuretic dose escalation of any magnitude was associated with heart failure hospitalizations and resource utilization, but not all-cause mortality.

Importance of diagnostic setting in determining mortality in patients with new-onset heart failure: temporal trends in Denmark 1997-2017

Aim

To investigate temporal trends in inpatient vs. outpatient diagnosis of new-onset heart failure (HF) and the subsequent risk of death and hospitalization.

Methods and results

Using nationwide registers, 192 581 patients with a first diagnosis of HF (1997–2017) were included. We computed incidences of HF, age-standardized mortality rates, and absolute risks (ARs) of death and hospitalization (accounting for competing risk of death) to understand the importance of the diagnosis setting in relation to subsequent mortality and hospitalization. The overall incidence of HF was approximately the same (170/100 000 persons) every year during 1997–2017. However, in 1997, 77% of all first diagnoses of HF were made during a hospitalization, whereas the proportion was 39% in 2017. As inpatient diagnoses decreased, outpatient diagnoses increased from 23% to 61%. Outpatients had lower mortality and hospitalization rates than inpatients throughout the study period, although the 1-year age-standardized mortality rate decreased for each inpatient (24 to 14/100-person) and outpatient (11 to 7/100-person). One-year and five-year AR of death decreased by 11.1% and 17.0%, respectively, for all HF patients, while the risk of hospitalization for HF did not decrease significantly (1.13% and 0.96%, respectively).

Conclusion

Between 1997 and 2017, HF changed from being primarily diagnosed during hospitalization to being mostly diagnosed in the outpatient setting. Outpatients had much lower mortality rates than inpatients throughout the study period. Despite a significant decrease in mortality risk for all HF patients, neither inpatients nor outpatients experienced a reduction in the risk of an HF hospitalization.

Combining Home Monitoring temporal trends from implanted defibrillators and baseline patient risk profile to predict heart failure hospitalizations: results from the SELENE HF study

AIMS

We developed and validated an algorithm for prediction of heart failure (HF) hospitalizations using remote monitoring (RM) data transmitted by implanted defibrillators.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The SELENE HF study enrolled 918 patients (median age 69 years, 81% men, median ejection fraction 30%) with cardiac resynchronization therapy (44%), dual-chamber (38%), or single-chamber defibrillators with atrial diagnostics (18%). To develop a predictive algorithm, temporal trends of diurnal and nocturnal heart rates, ventricular extrasystoles, atrial tachyarrhythmia burden, heart rate variability, physical activity, and thoracic impedance obtained by daily automatic RM were combined with a baseline risk-stratifier (Seattle HF Model) into one index. The primary endpoint was the first post-implant adjudicated HF hospitalization. After a median follow-up of 22.5 months since enrolment, patients were randomly allocated to the algorithm derivation group (n = 457; 31 endpoints) or algorithm validation group (n = 461; 29 endpoints). In the derivation group, the index showed a C-statistics of 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83-0.95] with 2.73 odds ratio (CI 1.98-3.78) for first HF hospitalization per unitary increase of index value (P < 0.001). In the validation group, sensitivity of predicting primary endpoint was 65.5% (CI 45.7-82.1%), median alerting time 42 days (interquartile range 21-89), and false (or unexplained) alert rate 0.69 (CI 0.64-0.74) [or 0.63 (CI 0.58-0.68)] per patient-year. Without the baseline risk-stratifier, the sensitivity remained 65.5% and the false/unexplained alert rates increased by ≈10% to 0.76/0.71 per patient-year.

CONCLUSION

With the developed algorithm, two-thirds of first post-implant HF hospitalizations could be predicted timely with only 0.7 false alerts per patient-year.

Initiation and long-term use of tolvaptan for patients with worsening heart failure through hospital and clinic cooperation

Worsening heart failure (WHF) has a negative impact on the prognosis of patients with heart failure. Adequate management of non-hospitalized episodes of WHF, regarded as "outpatient WHF", may reduce the frequency of emergent/urgent hospitalization for acute heart failure; thus, the patients' cardiac parameters return to their clinical baseline. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of tolvaptan initiation during planned hospitalization of patients with "outpatient WHF" through hospital and clinic cooperation. The data from 28 patients with outpatient WHF referred by general practitioners to hospital were assessed. Tolvaptan administration was initiated during planned hospitalization and continued in the clinics. Patients were followed-up for 12 months. None of the patients required withdrawal of tolvaptan due to adverse effects. During the follow-up period, the loop diuretic dosage significantly decreased. There were significant favorable changes in the levels of serum creatinine, estimated glomerular filtration rate, natriuretic peptide and body weight. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the cardiac death- and HF-related hospitalization-free survival rates were significantly higher among the patients who were administered tolvaptan for the outpatient WHF than the propensity score-matched patients who were administered tolvaptan for acute heart failure requiring emergent/urgent hospitalization. In conclusion, tolvaptan may be safe and effective for the long-term management of outpatient WHF through hospital and clinic cooperation.

Prognostic Role of Prior Heart Failure Hospitalization Among Patients Hospitalized for Worsening Chronic Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Hospitalization for heart failure (HF) is associated with increased risk of death among patients with chronic HF. The degree to which hospitalization for HF is a distinct biologic entity with independent prognostic value versus a marker of higher risk chronic HF patients is unclear.

METHODS

After excluding patients with new-onset HF, the ASCEND-HF trial (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure) included 4205 patients hospitalized for worsening chronic HF with reduced or preserved ejection fraction. The present analysis compared patients by presence or absence of prior HF hospitalization within 12 months and by timing of prior HF hospitalization relative to index hospitalization. Associations with 180-day all-cause mortality were assessed, including adjustment for 27 prespecified clinical factors.

RESULTS

Overall, 2241 (53.3%) patients had a HF hospitalization within the prior 12 months and 1964 (46.7%) did not. Mortality rates at 180 days were 15.5% and 11.9%, respectively. In unadjusted analyses, prior HF hospitalization was associated with increased risk of 180-day mortality (HR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.14-1.59]; P<0.01). After adjustment, the point estimate was attenuated and the association not statistically significant (HR, 1.18 [95% CI, 0.99-1.40]; P=0.064). Similarly, after adjustment, compared with patients without prior hospitalization, prior HF hospitalization was not associated with mortality, irrespective of timing (0-4 months: HR, 1.10 [95% CI, 0.87-1.39], P=0.41; 4-8 months: HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.70-1.27]; P=0.72; 8-12 months: HR, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.74-1.51], P=0.77; >12 months: HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.63-1.06], P=0.12).

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort of patients hospitalized for worsening HF, prior HF hospitalization was not associated with 180-day mortality after comprehensively accounting for patient characteristics measured during the index patient visit. Clinical confounders measured at the point-of-care may explain previously observed associations between prior HF hospitalization and mortality, and these clinical factors may be a more direct means of predicting patient survival. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00475852.

Heart failure in the last year: progress and perspective

Research about heart failure (HF) has made major progress in the last years. We give here an update on the most recent findings. Landmark trials have established new treatments for HF with reduced ejection fraction. Sacubitril/valsartan was superior to enalapril in PARADIGM-HF trial, and its initiation during hospitalization for acute HF or early after discharge can now be considered. More recently, new therapeutic pathways have been developed. In the DAPA-HF and EMPEROR-Reduced trials, dapagliflozin and empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite endpoint, compared with placebo [hazard ratio (HR) 0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-0.85; P < 0.001 and HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.65-0.86; P < 0.001, respectively]. Second, vericiguat, an oral soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, reduced the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization vs. placebo (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.82-0.98; P = 0.02). On the other hand, both the diagnosis and treatment of HF with preserved ejection fraction, as well as management of advanced HF and acute HF, remain challenging. A better phenotyping of patients with HF would be helpful for prognostic stratification and treatment selection. Further aspects, such as the use of devices, treatment of arrhythmias, and percutaneous treatment of valvular heart disease in patients with HF, are also discussed and reviewed in this article.

Sacubitril/Valsartan in Advanced Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: Rationale and Design of the LIFE Trial

The PARADIGM-HF (Prospective Comparison of Angiotensin II Receptor Blocker Neprilysin Inhibitor With Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure) trial reported that sacubitril/valsartan (S/V), an angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor, significantly reduced mortality and heart failure (HF) hospitalization in HF patients with a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). However, fewer than 1% of patients in the PARADIGM-HF study had New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class IV symptoms. Accordingly, data that informed the use of S/V among patients with advanced HF were limited. The LIFE (LCZ696 in Hospitalized Advanced Heart Failure) study was a 24-week prospective, multicenter, double-blinded, double-dummy, active comparator trial that compared the safety, efficacy, and tolerability of S/V with those of valsartan in patients with advanced HFrEF. The trial planned to randomize 400 patients ≥18 years of age with advanced HF, defined as an EF ≤35%, New York Heart Association functional class IV symptoms, elevated natriuretic peptide concentration (B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP] ≥250 pg/ml or N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP] ≥800 pg/ml), and ≥1 objective finding of advanced HF. Following a 3- to 7-day open label run-in period with S/V (24 mg/26 mg twice daily), patients were randomized 1:1 to S/V titrated to 97 mg/103 mg twice daily versus 160 mg of V twice daily. The primary endpoint was the proportional change from baseline in the area under the curve for NT-proBNP levels measured through week 24. Secondary and tertiary endpoints included clinical outcomes and safety and tolerability. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, enrollment in the LIFE trial was stopped prematurely to ensure patient safety and data integrity. The primary analysis consists of the first 335 randomized patients whose clinical follow-up examination results were not severely impacted by COVID-19. (Entresto [LCZ696] in Advanced Heart Failure [LIFE STUDY] [HFN-LIFE]; NCT02816736).

Heart Failure End Points in Cardiovascular Outcome Trials of Sodium Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Critical Evaluation of Clinical and Regulatory Issues

Following regulatory guidance set forth in 2008 by the US Food and Drug Administration for new drugs for type 2 diabetes mellitus, many large randomized, controlled trials have been conducted with the primary goal of assessing the safety of antihyperglycemic medications on the primary end point of major adverse cardiovascular events, defined as cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Heart failure (HF) was not specifically mentioned in the US Food and Drug Administration guidance and therefore it was not a focus of these studies when planned. Several trials subsequently showed the impact of antihyperglycemic drugs on HF outcomes, which were not originally specified as the primary end point of the trials. The most impressive finding has been the substantial and consistent risk reduction in HF hospitalization seen across 4 trials of sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors. However, to date, these results have not led to regulatory approval of any of these drugs for a HF indication or a recommendation for use by US HF guidelines. It is therefore important to explore to what extent persuasive treatment effects on nonprimary end points can be used to support regulatory claims and guideline recommendations. This topic was discussed by researchers, clinicians, industry sponsors, regulators, and representatives from professional societies, who convened on the US Food and Drug Administration campus on March 6, 2019. This report summarizes these discussions and the key takeaway messages from this meeting.