A possible link between famine exposure in early life and future risk of gastrointestinal cancers: Implications from age-period-cohort analysis

Early life exposure to Chinese famine and risk of digestive system cancer in midlife

To investigate whether early-life exposure to the Great Famine of 1959-1961 in China was associated with the risk of digestive system cancer. The prospective cohort study involved 17 997 participants from the Kailuan Study (Tangshan, China) that began in 2006. All participants were divided into three groups based on their date of birth. The unexposed group (born from 1 October 1962 to 30 September 1964), fetal-exposed group (born from 1 October 1959 to 30 December 1961), and early-childhood-exposed group (born from 1 October 1956 to 30 December 1958). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the association between early famine exposure and digestive system cancer. During the mean follow-up period of (10.4 ± 2.2) years, a total of 223 digestive system cancer events occurred. Including 54 cases in the unexposed group (62.14/100 000 person-years), 57 cases in the fetal-exposed group (114.8/100 000 person-years), and 112 cases in the early-childhood-exposure group (122.2/100 000 person-years). After adjusting covariates, compared with the unexposed group, the HR and 95% CI were 1.85 (1.28, 2.69) for participants in the fetal-exposed group and 1.92 (1.38, 2.66) for participants in the early-childhood-exposed group. No interactions were observed in our study. After classifying digestive system cancers, the HR and 95% CI were 2.02 (1.03, 3.97) for colorectal cancer for participants in the fetal-exposed group and 2.55 (1.43, 4.55) for participants in the early-childhood-exposed group. The HR and 95% CI were (1.13, 3.83) of liver cancer for participants in the fetal-exposed group and 1.15 (0.63, 2.10) for participants in the early-childhood-exposed group. Early-life famine exposure was associated with a higher risk of digestive system cancer in adulthood. Fetal-exposed individuals might increase the risk of colorectal cancer and liver cancer, and early childhood-exposed might increase the risk of colorectal cancer.

In Utero and Childhood/Adolescence Exposure to Tobacco Smoke, Genetic Risk, and Cancer Incidence in Adulthood: A Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of early-life tobacco smoke exposure, especially interacting with cancer genetic variants, with adult cancer.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

We examined the associations of in utero tobacco smoke exposure, age of smoking initiation, and their interaction with genetic risk levels with cancer incidence in 393,081 participants from the UK Biobank. Information on tobacco exposure was obtained by self-reported questionnaires. A cancer polygenic risk score was constructed by weighting and integrating 702 genome-wide association studies-identified risk variants. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for overall cancer and organ-specific cancer incidence.

RESULTS

During 11.8 years of follow-up, 23,450 (5.97%) and 23,413 (6.03%) incident cancers were included in the analyses of in utero exposure and age of smoking initiation, respectively. The HR (95% CI) for incident cancer in participants with in utero exposure to tobacco smoke was 1.04 (1.01-1.07) for overall cancer, 1.59 (1.44-1.75) for respiratory cancer, and 1.09 (1.03-1.17) for gastrointestinal cancer. The relative risk of incident cancer increased with earlier smoking initiation (Ptrend<.001), with the HR (95% CI) of 1.44 (1.36-1.51) for overall cancer, 13.28 (11.39-15.48) for respiratory cancer, and 1.72 (1.54-1.91) for gastrointestinal cancer in smokers with initiation in childhood compared with never smokers. Importantly, a positive additive interaction between age of smoking initiation and genetic risk was observed for overall cancer (Padditive=.04) and respiratory cancer (Padditive=.003) incidence.

CONCLUSION

In utero exposure and earlier smoking initiation are associated with overall and organ-specific cancer, and age of smoking initiation interaction with genetic risk is associated with respiratory cancer.

Energy balance-related factors in childhood and adolescence and risk of colorectal cancer based on KRAS, PIK3CA, and BRAF mutations and MMR status

KRAS mutations (KRAS_mut ), PIK3CA_mut , BRAF_mut , and deficient DNA mismatch repair (dMMR) have been associated with the Warburg effect. We previously reported differential associations between early-life energy balance-related factors (height, energy restriction, body mass index [BMI]) and colorectal cancer (CRC) subtypes based on the Warburg effect. We now investigated associations of early-life energy balance-related factors and the risk of CRC subgroups based on mutation and MMR status. Data from the Netherlands Cohort Study was used. KRAS_mut , PIK3CA_mut, BRAF_mut, and MMR status were available for 2349 CRC cases, and complete covariate data for 1934 cases and 3911 subcohort members. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate associations of height, energy restriction proxies (exposure to Dutch Hunger Winter, Second World War, Economic Depression), and early adult BMI (age 20 years) with risk of CRC based on individual molecular features and combinations thereof (all-wild-type+MMR-proficient [pMMR]; any-mutation/dMMR). Height was positively associated with any-mutation/dMMR CRC but not all-wild-type+pMMR CRC, with the exception of rectal cancer in men, and with heterogeneity in associations observed for colon cancer in men (p-heterogeneity = 0.049) and rectal cancer in women (p-heterogeneity = 0.014). Results on early-life energy restriction proxies in relation to the risk of CRC subgroups did not show clear patterns. Early adult BMI was positively, but not significantly, associated with KRAS_mut colon cancer in men and with BRAF_mut and dMMR colon cancer in women. Our results suggest a role of KRAS_mut , PIK3CA_mut , BRAF_mut , and dMMR in the etiological pathway between height and CRC risk. KRAS_mut might potentially play a role in associations of early adult BMI with colon cancer risk in men, and BRAF_mut and dMMR in women.

The Contribution of Health Behaviors to Depression Risk Across Birth Cohorts

BACKGROUND

More recent birth cohorts are at a higher depression risk than cohorts born in the early 20th century. We aimed to investigate to what extent changes in alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity, and obesity contribute to these birth cohort variations.

METHODS

We analyzed panel data from US adults born 1916-1966 enrolled in the Health and Retirement Study (N = 163,760 person-years). We performed a counterfactual decomposition analysis by combining age-period-cohort models with g-computation. We thereby compared the predicted probability of elevated depressive symptoms (CES-D 8 score ≥3) in the natural course to a counterfactual scenario where all birth cohorts had the health behaviors of the 1945 birth cohort. We stratified analyses by sex and race-ethnicity.

RESULTS

We estimated that depression risk of the 1916-1949 and 1950-1966 birth cohort would be on average 2.0% (-2.3 to -1.7) and 0.5% (-0.9 to -0.1) higher with the alcohol consumption levels of the 1945 cohort. In the counterfactual with the 1945 BMI distribution, depression risk is on average 2.1% (1.8 to 2.4) higher for the 1916-1940 cohorts and 1.8% (-2.2 to -1.5) lower for the 1950-1966 cohorts. We find no cohort variations in depression risk for smoking and physical activity. The contribution of alcohol is more pronounced for Whites than for other race-ethnicity groups, and the contribution of BMI more pronounced for women than for men.

CONCLUSION

Increased obesity levels were associated with exacerbated depression risk in recent birth cohorts in the United States, while drinking patterns only played a minor role.

Energy balance‐related factors in childhood and adolescence and risk of colorectal cancer expressing different levels of proteins involved in the Warburg‐effect

Early‐life (childhood to adolescence) energy balance‐related factors (height, energy restriction, BMI) have been associated with adult colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Warburg‐effect activation via PI3K/Akt‐signaling might explain this link. We investigated whether early‐life energy balance‐related factors were associated with risk of Warburg‐subtypes in CRC. We used immunohistochemistry for six proteins involved in the Warburg‐effect (LDHA, GLUT1, MCT4, PKM2, P53, and PTEN) on tissue microarrays of 2399 incident CRC cases from the prospective Netherlands Cohort Study (NLCS). Expression levels of all proteins were combined into a pathway‐based sum score and categorized into three Warburg‐subtypes (Warburg‐low/‐moderate/‐high). Multivariable Cox‐regression analyses were used to estimate associations of height, energy restriction proxies (exposure to Dutch Hunger Winter; Second World War [WWII]; Economic Depression) and adolescent BMI with Warburg‐subtypes in CRC. Height was positively associated with colon cancer in men, regardless of Warburg‐subtypes, and with Warburg‐low colon and Warburg‐moderate rectal cancer in women. Energy restriction during the Dutch Hunger Winter was inversely associated with colon cancer in men, regardless of Warburg‐subtypes. In women, energy restriction during the Hunger Winter and WWII was inversely associated with Warburg‐low colon cancer, whereas energy restriction during the Economic Depression was positively associated with Warburg‐high colon cancer. Adolescent BMI was positively associated with Warburg‐high colon cancer in men, and Warburg‐moderate rectal cancer in women. In conclusion, the Warburg‐effect seems to be involved in associations of adolescent BMI with colon cancer in men, and of energy restriction during the Economic Depression with colon cancer in women. Further research is needed to validate these results.

Association of Famine Exposure on the Changing Clinical Phenotypes of Primary Hyperparathyroidism in 20 years

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Primary hyperparathyroidism(PHPT) has been evolving into a milder asymptomatic disease. No study has assessed the association between famine exposure and such a shift. We aim to explore the effects of China's Great Famine exposure on the changing pattern of PHPT phenotypes.

METHODS

750 PHPT patients diagnosed from 2000 to 2019 were studied. The clinical presentations were compared between them in recent 10 years (2010-2019) and previous 10 years (2000-2009). Participants were then categorized into fetal, childhood, adolescent, adult exposure, and unexposed groups. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) of famine exposure as factors contributing to the changes in the clinical presentations of PHPT.

RESULTS

Serum levels of PTH, albumin-corrected Ca, tumor size, eGFR, BMDs (all P<0.001), and clinical symptoms became milder in recent 10 years. Famine exposure (72.6% vs 58.4%, P<0.001), especially the adult exposure (18.8% vs 4.1%, P<0.001)was significant less in recent 10 years. The ORs (95%CIs) of having upper 3^rd tertile PTH were 2.79(1.34,5.8), 2.07(1.04,4.11), 3.10(1.15,8.38) and 8.85(2.56,30.56) for patients with fetal, childhood, adolescent and adult famine exposure, respectively. The ORs (95%CIs) of upper 3^rd tertile albumin-corrected Ca and upper 3^rd tertile of tumor size was 4.78(1.39, 16.38) and 4.07(1.12,14.84) for participants with adult famine exposure, respectively. All these associations were independent of age, sex, disease duration and other confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical manifestations of PHPT in China continue to be milder. Exposure to famine is associated with PHPT. Less famine exposure might be responsible for the mile form of PHPT in recent years.

In utero and childhood exposure to the Great Chinese Famine and risk of cancer in adulthood: the Kailuan Study

BACKGROUND

The risk of cancer in adulthood can be influenced by exposure to environmental factors (e.g., food shortage and stress) in early life.

OBJECTIVES

This study compared the risk of cancer morbidity and mortality between Chinese adults who were or were not exposed to the Great Chinese Famine (1959-1961) in utero or during early childhood.

METHODS

The Kailuan Study participants (n = 101,095) were classified into 5 famine exposure groups by birth year collected at study baseline (2006-2007): after 1961 (unexposed), 1959-1961 (in utero exposed), 1956-1958 (infancy and early childhood exposed, aged 0.1-2.9 y), 1953-1955 (childhood exposed, aged 3.0-5.9 y), and before 1953 (exposed, aged 6+ y). They were further classified by the severity of famine exposure. Cancer and cancer mortality cases from 2006 to 2016 were confirmed by reviewing medical records. Cox proportional hazard models were computed, adjusting for sex, socioeconomic status, and other time-varying cancer-related covariates.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 10.0 y, we identified 3560 incident cancer cases and 1749 cancer deaths. Famine exposure at all ages was positively associated with the risk of cancer morbidity and mortality (P < 0.001 for all, compared with unexposed). Severe exposure to famine in early childhood, but not other ages, had a higher risk of composite cancer events [adjusted HR = 2.04 (95% CI: 1.47, 2.84) for 0.1-2.9 y; and 1.61 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.25) for 3.0-5.9 y], relative to the less severely exposed groups of the same age range. When cancer morbidity and mortality were studied separately, similar patterns were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

In utero and early childhood exposures to famine, especially severe famine, were associated with a higher risk of cancer morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Awareness should be raised regarding the long-term effect of early life nutritional status.Trial registration number: ChiCTR-TNRC-11001489 (http://www.chictr.org.cn/showprojen.aspx?proj=8050).

Changes of Body Mass Index and Body Shape in relation to risk of Gastric Cancer: A population-based case-control study

Background: The results of previous studies are heterogeneous about the effect of body fatness on risk of gastric cancer (GC). Herein we investigated the effect of changes of BMI and body shape on risk of GC.

Methods: A population-based case-control study enrolled 1989 controls and 937 GC cases. Logistic regression models were used to calculate odd ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for BMI and body shape in association with GC risk, according to anatomical subsite, Laurén's classification, sex and Helicobacter pylori (Hp) infection.

Results: Subjects with higher BMI or body shape 10 years before interview had a lower risk of GC regardless of anatomical subsite, Laurén's classification, and sex (all P for trend <0.05). But the relative risk patterns were different by Hp status. When checking the effect of changes of body fatness, in Hp+ stratum, the ORs (95% CI) were 0.40 (0.17-0.93) for subjects who were underweight at age 20 but had increased BMI afterwards, and 0.48 (0.32-0.73) for those of body shape 1/2 at age 20 but increased body shape subsequently, compared to subjects with stable BMI or body shape. When subjects had a normal BMI or 3/4 body shape at age 20, weight loss nearly doubled the risk of GC, and weight gain would decrease the risk.

Conclusion: The association between body fatness and GC risk might differ by time point of measurement and Hp-infection status. Further, the influence of changes of body fatness might be different by baseline body fatness and Hp-infection status.

Early famine exposure and adult disease risk based on a 10-year prospective study of Chinese adults

OBJECTIVE

To comprehensively examine the potential impacts of prenatal experience of the Chinese Great Famine on chronic disease risks in the middle age.

METHODS

This study included 92 284 participants aged 39-51 years from China Kadoorie Biobank born around the famine period and without major chronic diseases at baseline. We categorised participants into non-famine births (born between 1 October 1956 and 30 September 1958, and 1 October 1962 and 30 September 1964) and famine births (born between 1 October 1959 and 30 September 1961). The outcomes were incident cardiovascular disease, cancer and respiratory system disease. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted HR and 95% CI for famine exposure. Subgroup analyses were performed according to baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

During a median 10.1 years of follow-up, we identified 4626 incident ischaemic heart disease (IHD) cases, 7332 cerebrovascular disease cases, 3111 cancer cases and 16 081 respiratory system disease cases. In the whole population, prenatal famine exposure was not statistically associated with the risks of developing any chronic diseases in adulthood. However, for urban participants, compared with non-famine births, famine births had a higher risk of cerebrovascular disease (HR 1.18; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.28); such association was not shown for rural participants (p for interaction <0.001). Also, we observed the associations of prenatal famine exposure with IHD (HR 1.15; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.26) and cerebrovascular disease (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.21) in participants with lower physical activity level, but not in those with higher ones (all p for interaction=0.003).

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that prenatal exposure to the Chinese famine might be associated with an increased cardiovascular risk and such risk may be modified by adult lifestyle.

How older people became less afraid of crime-An age-period-cohort analysis using repeated cross-sectional survey data

One of the most robust predictors of fear of crime is age: Older people tend to be more fearful. Yet, many questions beyond the basic cross-sectional relationship remain unexplored. We investigate cohort effects on fear of crime, applying graphical analyses and a version of the hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) analysis to eight waves of the German subset of the European Social Survey. We hypothesize that health improvements and the educational expansion in postwar Germany led to a decreasing cohort trend, and that children exposed to traumatic experiences and adverse living conditions during and after World War II report higher levels of perceived insecurity throughout the life course. We argue that cross-sectional age differences are, in fact, to a large extent cohort effects, mediated by improved self-rated health and increasing education. The analyses also unveil a recent period effect after 2014. These novel findings add considerably to the understanding of the temporal dynamics of fear of crime.

Time Trends of Gastrointestinal Cancers Incidence and Mortality in Yangzhong From 1991 to 2015: An Updated Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Background: Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers are the common cause of morbidity and mortality in China which seriously threaten people's health and lives. The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend in the epidemiology of GI cancers from 1991 to 2015, with an emphasis on the effects of age, period and cohort in Yangzhong City, Jiangsu province, a high-risk area of GI cancers in China. Methods: Our study extracted cases of gastric cancer, esophageal cancer and colorectal cancer diagnosed from 1991 to 2015 from Yangzhong Cancer Registry. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) were calculated and joinpoint regression was used to compute the estimated annual percent changes. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was performed to investigate the independent effects of age, calendar period, and birth cohort. Results: Between 1991 and 2015, 18,006 new cases and 10,262 deaths were registered with GI cancers in Yangzhong. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of gastric cancer decreased in both sexes during the study period. And the incidence rates of esophageal cancer stabilized at first then continued to decline, the turning point was in 2005 for men and 2001 for women. Changes in the mortality rates of gastric cancer and esophageal cancer showed significant declined trends around 2000-2010 in both genders. The incidence rates of colorectal cancer increased steadily during the entire study period, and the increase was more pronounced in the mortality rates of men. The results of APC analysis suggest that general decreases in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer and gastric cancer might be caused by the downward trend of the period and cohort effects, while the increases in colorectal cancer might be caused by the uptrend of the period effects. Conclusions: The incidence and mortality rates of esophageal and gastric cancers showed a downward trend and colorectal cancer was on the rise as a whole in Yangzhong City. The different burden of gastrointestinal cancer indicating heterogeneous risk factors exist and may have contributed to these temporal variations.

PALTEM: What Parameters Should Be Collected in Disaster Settings to Assess the Long-Term Outcomes of Famine?

Evidence suggests that nutritional status during fetal development and early life leaves an imprint on the genome, which leads to health outcomes not only on a person as an adult but also on his offspring. The purpose of this study is to bring forth an overview of the relevant parameters that need to be collected to assess the long-term and transgenerational health outcomes of famine. A literature search was conducted for the most pertinent articles on the epigenetic effects of famine. The results were compiled, synthesized and discussed with an expert in genetics for critical input and validation. Prenatal and early life exposure to famine was associated with metabolic, cardiovascular, respiratory, reproductive, neuropsychiatric and oncologic diseases. We propose a set of parameters to be collected in disaster settings to assess the long-term outcomes of famine: PALTEM (parameters to assess long-term effects of malnutrition).

Time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality in China, 1991-2009: an age-period-cohort analysis

Esophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors. This study aimed to compare the long-term trends in mortality rates of esophageal and gastric cancers in China to provide evidence for cancer prevention and control. Mortality data were derived from 103 continuous points of the Disease Surveillance Points system during 1991-2009, stratified by gender and urban-rural locations. Age-period-cohort models were used to disentangle the time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality. The downward slope of the period effect for esophageal cancer was steeper than that for gastric cancer in rural areas. Cohort effect patterns were similar between esophageal and gastric cancers, with an inverse U-shape peaking around the late 1920s and early 1930s. A second peak, appearing around the 1950s, was weaker than the first but apparent in males, especially for esophageal cancer. The more marked changes in period effect for esophageal cancer in rural areas suggest esophageal cancer screening practices are effective in reducing mortality, and similar programs targeting gastric cancer should be implemented. The similarities of the cohort effects in these two cancers support the implication of nutrition deficiency in early childhood in the development of upper gastrointestinal cancer.