A proportional hazards regression model for the subdistribution with right-censored and left-truncated competing risks data

Hybrid technique and total arch replacement combined with frozen elephant trunk in acute aortic dissection involving the aortic arch: a multi-center propensity-matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to investigate whether the hybrid technique yields superior outcomes in comparison with the total arch replacement combined with frozen elephant trunk (TAR + FET) for acute aortic dissection (AAD) involving the aortic arch.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study using propensity-score matching included patients with AAD involving the aortic arch admitted to Nanjing First Hospital and Shanghai General Hospital from January 2015 to June 2020. The in-hospital and mid-term outcomes were compared between patients who received hybrid treatment (n = 136) and those who received TAR + FET (n = 415). Study end points included in-hospital mortality and morbidity, and mid-term rates of death from all causes, stroke, and aortic re-intervention.

RESULTS

A total of 121 pairs were formed after matching. In-hospital mortality did not differ between hybrid versus TAR + FET groups (5.8% vs. 7.9%, P = .860). Up to 6 years, patients treated with TAR + FET were associated with reduced rate of aortic re-intervention (HR 0.21, 95% CI 0.05-0.97; P = .023). There was no difference in death from all causes and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Hybrid technique and TAR + FET showed comparable mid-term survival. Hybrid technique showed higher rate of aortic re-intervention and should therefore be applied with great caution in patients with AAD involving the aortic arch.

Survival Outcomes in Older Women with Oestrogen-Receptor-Positive Early-Stage Breast Cancer: Primary Endocrine Therapy vs. Surgery by Comorbidity and Frailty Levels

Primary endocrine therapy (PET) offers non-surgical treatment for older women with early-stage breast cancer who are unsuitable for surgery due to frailty or comorbidity. This research assessed all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality of PET vs. surgery in older women (≥70 years) with oestrogen-receptor-positive early-stage breast cancer by frailty and comorbidity levels. This study used UK secondary data to analyse older female patients from 2000 to 2016. Patients were censored until 31 May 2019 and grouped by the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and hospital frailty risk score (HFRS). Cox regression models compared all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality between PET and surgery within each group, adjusting for patient preferences and covariates. Sensitivity analyses accounted for competing risks. There were 23,109 patients included. The hazard ratio (HR) comparing PET to surgery for overall survival decreased significantly from 2.1 (95%CI: 2.0, 2.2) to 1.2 (95%CI: 1.1, 1.5) with increasing HFRS and from 2.1 (95%CI: 2.0, 2.2) to 1.4 (95%CI 1.2, 1.7) with rising CCI. However, there was no difference in BCSM for frail older women (HR: 1.2; 0.9, 1.9). There were no differences in competing risk profiles between other causes of death and breast cancer-specific mortality with PET versus surgery, with a subdistribution hazard ratio of 1.1 (0.9, 1.4) for high-level HFRS (p = 0.261) and CCI (p = 0.093). Given limited survival gains from surgery for older patients, PET shows potential as an effective option for frail older women with early-stage breast cancer. Despite surgery outperforming PET, surgery loses its edge as frailty increases, with negligible differences in the very frail.

A flexible model based on piecewise linear approximation for the analysis of left truncated right censored data with covariates, and applications to Worcester Heart Attack Study data and Channing House data

Left truncated right censored (LTRC) data arise quite commonly from survival studies. In this article, a model based on piecewise linear approximation is proposed for the analysis of LTRC data with covariates. Specifically, the model involves a piecewise linear approximation for the cumulative baseline hazard function of the proportional hazards model. The principal advantage of the proposed model is that it does not depend on restrictive parametric assumptions while being flexible and data-driven. Likelihood inference for the model is developed. Through detailed simulation studies, the robustness property of the model is studied by fitting it to LTRC data generated from different processes covering a wide range of lifetime distributions. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out by fitting the model to LTRC data generated from a process with a piecewise constant baseline hazard. It is observed that the performance of the model is quite satisfactory in all those cases. Analyses of two real LTRC datasets by using the model are provided as illustrative examples. Applications of the model in some practical prediction issues are discussed. In summary, the proposed model provides a comprehensive and flexible approach to model a general structure for LTRC lifetime data.

Efficient estimation for left-truncated competing risks regression for case-cohort studies

The case-cohort study design provides a cost-effective study design for a large cohort study with competing risk outcomes. The proportional subdistribution hazards model is widely used to estimate direct covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function for competing risk data. In biomedical studies, left truncation often occurs and brings extra challenges to the analysis. Existing inverse probability weighting methods for case-cohort studies with competing risk data not only have not addressed left truncation, but also are inefficient in regression parameter estimation for fully observed covariates. We propose an augmented inverse probability-weighted estimating equation for left-truncated competing risk data to address these limitations of the current literature. We further propose a more efficient estimator when extra information from the other causes is available. The proposed estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimator is unbiased and leads to estimation efficiency gain in the regression parameter estimation. We analyze the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study data using the proposed methods.

Living Donor Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Within and Outside Traditional Selection Criteria: A Multicentric North American Experience

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate long-term oncologic outcomes of patients post-living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) within and outside standard transplantation selection criteria and the added value of the incorporation of the New York-California (NYCA) score.

BACKGROUND

LDLT offers an opportunity to decrease the liver transplantation waitlist, reduce waitlist mortality, and expand selection criteria for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

Primary adult LDLT recipients between October 1999 and August 2019 were identified from a multicenter cohort of 12 North American centers. Posttransplantation and recurrence-free survival were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method.

RESULTS

Three hundred sixty LDLTs were identified. Patients within Milan criteria (MC) at transplantation had a 1, 5, and 10-year posttransplantation survival of 90.9%, 78.5%, and 64.1% versus outside MC 90.4%, 68.6%, and 57.7% ( P = 0.20), respectively. For patients within the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria, respective posttransplantation survival was 90.6%, 77.8%, and 65.0%, versus outside UCSF 92.1%, 63.8%, and 45.8% ( P = 0.08). Fifty-three (83%) patients classified as outside MC at transplantation would have been classified as either low or acceptable risk with the NYCA score. These patients had a 5-year overall survival of 72.2%. Similarly, 28(80%) patients classified as outside UCSF at transplantation would have been classified as a low or acceptable risk with a 5-year overall survival of 65.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term survival is excellent for patients with HCC undergoing LDLT within and outside selection criteria, exceeding the minimum recommended 5-year rate of 60% proposed by consensus guidelines. The NYCA categorization offers insight into identifying a substantial proportion of patients with HCC outside the MC and the UCSF criteria who still achieve similar post-LDLT outcomes as patients within the criteria.

The effects of acuity circle policy on racial disparity in liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

A new deceased donor liver allocation policy using an acuity circle-based model was implemented with the goal of providing equitable access to liver transplantation. We assessed the effect of the acuity circle policy on racial disparities in liver transplantation by analyzing waitlist mortality, transplant probability, and post-transplant outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 23,717 adult liver transplantation candidates listed during the pre-acuity circle period and 21,051 during the post-acuity circle period (N = 44,768) in the United Network for Organ Sharing database from February 2020 to December 2021.

RESULTS

Acuity circle-policy implementation was not associated with any significant difference in 90-day waitlist mortality but increased the 90-day probability of all candidates. Implementation did not decrease 90-day waitlist mortality but increased the 90-day transplant probability for all patients. One-year patient and liver graft survival were comparable between the study periods for all recipients, but Black recipients had higher rates of 1-year post-liver transplantation mortality and liver graft failure in both periods.

CONCLUSION

Although the implementation of the acuity circle policy is associated with an increase in transplant probability in White, Black, and Hispanic liver transplantation candidates, it did not change their waitlist mortality, nor did it lead to any improvement in the preexistent worse post-transplant outcomes in Black liver transplantation recipients.

Association of interleukin-6 and interleukin-18 with cardiovascular disease in older adults: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

AIMS

Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-18 (IL-18), important cytokines implicated in atherosclerosis and inflammaging, were assessed for associations with global cardiovascular disease (CVD), atrial fibrillation (AF), and death in older adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Participants from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study Visit 5 (mean age 75.4 ± 5.1 years) with IL-6 and IL-18 measurements were included (n = 5672). Cox regression models were used to assess associations of IL-6 and IL-18 with coronary heart disease (CHD), ischaemic stroke, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, global CVD (composite of CHD, stroke, and HF), AF, and all-cause death. Over a median follow-up of 7.2 years, there were 1235 global CVD events, 530 AF events, and 1173 deaths. Higher IL-6 [hazard ratio (HR) 1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.44-1.72 per log unit increase] and IL-18 (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.01-1.26) were significantly associated with global CVD after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. Association between IL-6 and global CVD remained significant after further adjustment for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) but was no longer significant for IL-18 after further adjustments. Interleukin-6 was also associated with increased risk for CHD, HF, and AF after adjustment for covariates. Both IL-6 and IL-18 were associated with increased risk for all-cause death independent of cardiovascular risk factors and other biomarkers.

CONCLUSION

Among older adults, both IL-6 and IL-18 were associated with global CVD and death. The association between IL-6 with CVD appears to be more robust and was independent of hs-CRP, NT-proBNP, and hs-TnT.

Association of medicinal plant consumption with all-cause mortality and cognitive impairment in older adult: A large prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Panax ginseng and other medicinal plants have long been believed to have beneficial effects on health, and there is substantial evidence supporting their mechanisms of action. However, the extent of the health benefits derived from consuming these medicinal plants lacks substantial evidence from large-scale longitudinal population studies. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of consuming these medicinal plants on all-cause mortality and cognitive impairment.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study was conducted using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), which was established in 1998 and has been followed up till now. The main exposure was the frequency of eating medicinal plants, including Panax ginseng, Astragalus membranaceus, Lycium barbarum, Angelica sinensis, etc. According to the consumption patterns of medicinal plants, the participants were divided into three groups: frequent use, occasional use, and rarely or never use group. The participants were individually tracked to determine their mortality and cognitive impairment status during the period from 2008 to 2018. Cox proportional hazards regression and competing risk model were used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) for the association between the use of medicinal plants and the all-cause mortality and cognitive impairment.

RESULTS

Among 13,918 participants, the average age was 87.2 ± 11.3 years old, and 70.1% (9,754/13,918) of the participants died during follow-up. The proportion of those frequently using, occasionally using, and rarely using medicinal plants was 8.4%, 20.7%, and 70.8%, respectively. Compared with the rarely or never use group, the occasional and frequent use groups demonstrated significantly lower risks for all-cause mortality, with HR of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71 - 0.79) and 0.53 (95% CI: 0.49 - 0.58), respectively. The protective effect of medicinal plants against all-cause mortality decreased with increasing age in the subgroup analysis. Additionally, frequent use of medicinal plants reduced the risk of cognitive impairment in the competing risk model (HR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.60 - 0.87). However, there was no protective effect on cognitive function for those who occasional use medicinal plants.

CONCLUSION

In elderly individuals, occasional and frequent use of medicinal plants was associated with reductions in risk of all-cause mortality, and frequent use of medicinal plants could reduce the risk of cognitive impairment.

Prognostic Significance of Early Declines in Pulmonary Function After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary function test (PFT) impairments are common after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. The prognostic significance of these declines on outcomes is not well understood.The objectives were to determine the frequency of declines in pulmonary function (FVC, FEV1, and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide [DLCO]) in the early post-transplantation period; and to determine the prognostic significance of these declines on mortality or development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study conducted at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota. PFTs were obtained at baseline and at day +100. Competing risk survival models were developed, which accounted for pre-transplantation pulmonary function and relapse status.

RESULTS

Between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2020, 1,145 subjects underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and had a pre-transplantation PFT performed. Of these, 900 (78.6%) survived to day 100 and had post-transplantation PFTs performed (median [interquartile range] 97 [94-103] d). A decline of ≥10% in FEV1, FVC, or DLCO was seen in 401 of 900 subjects (44.5%). Declines of ≥20% in FEV1 (hazard ratio 1.65, 95% CI 1.07-2.56; P = .02), FVC (hazard ratio 1.72, 95% CI [1.11-2.67]; P = .02), and DLCO (hazard ratio 1.46, 95% CI 1.04-2.07; P = .028) were all associated with reduced survival when compared with those with < 10% decline in PFT measures. These findings were independent of pre-transplantation pulmonary function or relapse status. Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome was diagnosed in 118 subjects (10.3%), and there was no relationship between early PFT decline and a subsequent diagnosis of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome. The subjects who received myeloablative conditioning with cyclophosphamide plus total body irradiation or cyclophosphamide plus fludarabine plus total body irradiation were more likely to have lower spirometry values after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. The subjects who received reduced intensity conditioning or nonmyeloablative conditioning with fludarabine plus total body irradiation were more likely to have higher post-hematopoietic stem cell transplantation FEV1, FVC, and DLCO.

CONCLUSIONS

An absolute decline of ≥20% in FEV1, FVC, or DLCO were associated with reduced survival independent of pre-transplantation pulmonary function or relapse status. In contrast to previous work, early declines in PFT measures were not associated with future development of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome.

Association of Drinking Herbal Tea with Activities of Daily Living among Elderly: A Latent Class Analysis

The aim of this study was to explore whether drinking herbal tea and tea would positively benefit activities of daily living (ADL) in the elderly. We used data from the Chinese longitudinal healthy longevity survey (CLHLS) to explore the association. Drinking herbal tea and drinking tea were divided into three groups using latent class analysis (LCA): frequently, occasionally, and rarely. ADL disability was measured by the ADL score. Multivariate COX proportional hazards models with competing risks were used to explore the impact of drinking herbal tea and tea on ADL disability, statistically adjusted for a range of potential confounders. A total of 7441 participants (mean age 81.8 years) were included in this study. The proportions of frequently and occasionally drinking herbal tea were 12.0% and 25.7%, respectively. Additionally, 29.6% and 28.2% of participants reported drinking tea, respectively. Multivariate COX regression showed that compared with rarely drinking, frequently drinking herbal tea could effectively reduce the incidence of ADL disability (HR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.77-0.93, p = 0.005), whereas tea drinking had a relatively weaker effect (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.83-0.99, p = 0.040). Subgroup analysis found that frequently drinking herbal tea was more protective for males under 80 years old (HR = 0.74 and 0.79, respectively), while frequently drinking tea was somewhat protective for women (HR = 0.92). The results indicate that drinking herbal tea and tea may be associated with a lower incidence of ADL disability. However, the risks associated with using Chinese herb plants still deserve attention.

Regression models for censored time-to-event data using infinitesimal jack-knife pseudo-observations, with applications to left-truncation

Jack-knife pseudo-observations have in recent decades gained popularity in regression analysis for various aspects of time-to-event data. A limitation of the jack-knife pseudo-observations is that their computation is time consuming, as the base estimate needs to be recalculated when leaving out each observation. We show that jack-knife pseudo-observations can be closely approximated using the idea of the infinitesimal jack-knife residuals. The infinitesimal jack-knife pseudo-observations are much faster to compute than jack-knife pseudo-observations. A key assumption of the unbiasedness of the jack-knife pseudo-observation approach is on the influence function of the base estimate. We reiterate why the condition on the influence function is needed for unbiased inference and show that the condition is not satisfied for the Kaplan-Meier base estimate in a left-truncated cohort. We present a modification of the infinitesimal jack-knife pseudo-observations that provide unbiased estimates in a left-truncated cohort. The computational speed and medium and large sample properties of the jack-knife pseudo-observations and infinitesimal jack-knife pseudo-observation are compared and we present an application of the modified infinitesimal jack-knife pseudo-observations in a left-truncated cohort of Danish patients with diabetes.

Risk of Major Cardiovascular Disease after Exposure to Contrast Media: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study on Dialysis Patients

Contrast associated kidney injury is caused by side effects of iodinated contrast media (ICM), including inflammation. Chronic inflammation among dialysis patient contributes to atherosclerosis, which leads to simultaneous conditions of the kidney, brain, and vasculature. Data to investigate the pathologic effects of ICM on cardiovascular complications in dialysis patients are lacking. Dialysis patients who had been exposed to ICM from computed tomography (ICM-CT) were allocated as the ICM-CT cohort (N = 3751), whereas dialysis patients without ICM exposure were randomly allocated as the non-ICM cohort (N = 17,196). Furthermore, 540 pairs were selected for analyses through propensity score-matching in terms of age, sex, comorbidities, dialysis vintage, and index date. During a median follow-up of 10.3 years, ICM-CT cohort had significantly higher risks in the following, compared with non-ICM cohort: all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-1.47), cardiovascular events (aHR,1.67; 95% CI, 1.39-2.01), acute coronary syndrome (adjusted HR: 2.92; 95% CI, 1.72-4.94), sudden cardiac arrest (aHR, 1.69; 95% CI, 0.90-3.18), heart failure (aHR, 1.71; 95% CI,1.28-2.27), and stroke (aHR, 1.84; 95% CI,1.45-2.35). The proinflammatory ICM is significantly associated with an increased risk of major cardiovascular events in patients on dialysis.

Maternal serum levels of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 and placental growth factor at 20 and 28 weeks of gestational age and the risk of spontaneous preterm birth

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous preterm birth is the endpoint of multiple different pathophysiological pathways. Fetal growth restriction, assessed by serial ultrasonic fetal biometry, has been shown to predict both preterm and early-term spontaneous labor. The soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 to placental growth factor ratio is predictive of early-term spontaneous labor, but its association with spontaneous preterm birth is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to determine whether maternal serum levels of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1, placental growth factor, and the soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1: placental growth factor ratio at 20 and 28 weeks' gestation, and the rate of change in these biomarkers between 20 and 28 weeks were predictive of risk of spontaneous preterm birth.

STUDY DESIGN

The biomarkers were measured in maternal serum at 20- and 28-weeks' gestation in women recruited to a prospective cohort of unselected nulliparous women as part of the Pregnancy Outcome Prediction study in Cambridge, United Kingdom. The risk of spontaneous preterm birth was assessed using Cox regression and competing-risks regression. Associations from Cox regression were quantified by the adjusted hazard ratio for a 1 standard deviation higher level of a given biomarker or a 1 standard deviation increase in the marker between 20 and 28 weeks' gestation. A previously identified risk factor, slow femur length growth, was used as an additional predictor of spontaneous preterm birth for the purpose of risk stratification.

RESULTS

Of the 3763 participants in the analysis, 95 (2.5%) had spontaneous preterm birth and 54 (1.4%) had medically indicated preterm birth. At 20 weeks' gestation, higher levels of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 and the soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1:placental growth factor ratio were associated with reduced risk of spontaneous preterm birth (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.75 [0.61-0.92]; P=.006 and 0.71 [0.59-0.87]; P=.0009, respectively). At 28 weeks' gestation, there was no association between either soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 or placental growth factor and the risk of spontaneous preterm birth, but there was a U-shaped relation with the soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1:placental growth factor ratio. However, when the biomarkers were quantified as the rate of increase between 20 and 28 weeks' gestation, there were strong positive associations between spontaneous preterm birth and rate of increase in soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (1.36 [1.13-1.63]; P=.001) and the soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1:placental growth factor ratio (1.50 [1.30-1.73]; P<.0001), and a strong negative association with the rate of increase in placental growth factor (0.71 [0.61-0.82]; P<.0001). Women who were in the highest decile of increase in the soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1:placental growth factor ratio and the lowest decile of femur length growth between 20 and 28 weeks' gestation had approximately 9-fold risk of spontaneous preterm birth (9.27 [4.21-20.37]; P<.0001). Competing-risks regression yielded similar results.

CONCLUSION

Changing levels of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 and placental growth factor are indicative of placental dysfunction and are strongly associated with the risk of spontaneous preterm birth, especially when combined with slower fetal femur length growth.

Characterization of arrhythmia substrate to ablate persistent atrial fibrillation (COAST-AF): Randomized controlled trial design and rationale

BACKGROUND

Atrial low voltage area (LVA) catheter ablation has emerged as a promising strategy for ablation of persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). It is unclear if catheter ablation of atrial LVA increases treatment success rates in patients with persistent AF.

OBJECTIVE

The primary aim of this trial is to assess the potential benefit of adjunctive catheter ablation of atrial LVA in addition to pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) in patients with persistent AF, when compared to PVI alone. The secondary aims are to evaluate safety outcomes, the quality of life and the healthcare resource utilization.

METHODS/DESIGN

A multicenter, prospective, parallel-group, 2-arm, single-blinded randomized controlled trial is under way (NCT03347227). Patients who are candidates for catheter ablation for persistent AF will be randomly assigned (1:1) to either PVI alone or PVI + atrial LVA ablation. The primary outcome is 18-month documented event rate of atrial arrhythmia (AF, atrial tachycardia or atrial flutter) post catheter ablation. Secondary outcomes include procedure-related complications, freedom from atrial arrhythmia at 12 months, AF burden, need for emergency department visits/hospitalization, need for repeat ablation for atrial arrhythmia, quality of life at 12 and 18 months, ablation time, and procedure duration.

DISCUSSION

Characterization of Arrhythmia Mechanism to Ablate Atrial Fibrillation (COAST-AF) is a multicenter randomized trial evaluating ablation strategies for catheter ablation. We hypothesize that catheter ablation of atrial LVA in addition to PVI will result in higher procedural success rates when compared to PVI alone in patients with persistent AF.

Low utilization of adult-to-adult LDLT in Western countries despite excellent outcomes: International multicenter analysis of the US, the UK, and Canada

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Adult-to-adult living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) offers an opportunity to decrease the liver transplant waitlist and reduce waitlist mortality. We sought to compare donor and recipient characteristics and post-transplant outcomes after LDLT in the US, the UK, and Canada.

METHODS

This is a retrospective multicenter cohort-study of adults (≥18-years) who underwent primary LDLT between Jan-2008 and Dec-2018 from three national liver transplantation registries: United Network for Organ Sharing (US), National Health Service Blood and Transplantation (UK), and the Canadian Organ Replacement Registry (Canada). Patients undergoing retransplantation or multi-organ transplantation were excluded. Post-transplant survival was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariable adjustments were performed using Cox proportional-hazards models with mixed-effect modeling.

RESULTS

A total of 2,954 living donor liver transplants were performed (US: n = 2,328; Canada: n = 529; UK: n = 97). Canada has maintained the highest proportion of LDLT utilization over time (proportion of LDLT in 2008 - US: 3.3%; Canada: 19.5%; UK: 1.7%; p <0.001 - in 2018 - US: 5.0%; Canada: 13.6%; UK: 0.4%; p <0.001). The 1-, 5-, and 10-year patient survival was 92.6%, 82.8%, and 70.0% in the US vs. 96.1%, 89.9%, and 82.2% in Canada vs. 91.4%, 85.4%, and 66.7% in the UK. After adjustment for characteristics of donors, recipients, transplant year, and treating transplant center as a random effect, all countries had a non-statistically significantly different mortality hazard post-LDLT (Ref US: Canada hazard ratio 0.53, 95% CI 0.28-1.01, p = 0.05; UK hazard ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.59-2.02, p = 0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of LDLT has remained low in the US, the UK and Canada. Despite this, long-term survival is excellent. Continued efforts to increase LDLT utilization in these countries may be warranted due to the growing waitlist and differences in allocation that may disadvantage patients currently awaiting liver transplantation.

LAY SUMMARY

This multicenter international comparative analysis of living donor liver transplantation in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada demonstrates that despite low use of the procedure, the long-term outcomes are excellent. In addition, the mortality risk is not statistically significantly different between the evaluated countries. However, the incidence and risk of retransplantation differs between the countries, being the highest in the United Kingdom and lowest in the United States.

Real-world efficacy and safety outcomes of imatinib treatment in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia: An Australian experience

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) have revolutionized the treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), but patients still experience treatment-limiting toxicities or therapeutic failure. To investigate the real-world use and outcomes of imatinib in patients with CML in Australia, a retrospective cohort study of patients with CML commencing imatinib (2001-2018) was conducted across two sites. Prescribing patterns, tolerability outcomes, and survival and molecular response were evaluated. 86 patients received 89 imatinib treatments. Dose modifications were frequently observed (12-month rate of 58%). At last follow-up, 62 patients (5-year rate of 55%) had permanently discontinued imatinib treatment, of which 44 switched to another TKI (5-year rate of 46%). Within 3 months of starting imatinib, 43% (95% CI, 32%-53%) of patients experienced imatinib-related grade ≥3 adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Higher comorbidity score, lower body weight, higher imatinib starting dose, and Middle Eastern or North African ancestry were associated with a higher risk of grade ≥3 ADR occurrence on multivariable analysis (MVA). Estimated overall survival and event-free survival rates at 3 years were 97% (95% CI, 92%-100%) and 81% (95% CI, 72%-92%), respectively. Cumulative incidence of major molecular response (MMR) at 3 years was 63% (95% CI, 50%-73%). On MVA, imatinib starting dose, ELTS score, BCR-ABL1 transcript type, pre-existing pulmonary disease, and potential drug-drug interactions were predictive of MMR. In conclusion, imatinib induced deep molecular responses that translated to good survival outcomes in a real-world setting, but was associated with a higher incidence of ADRs, dose modifications and treatment discontinuations than in clinical trials.

Follow-up of gallbladder polyps in a high-risk population of gallbladder cancer: a cohort study and multivariate survival competing risk analysis

BACKGROUND

The risk of neoplasia in gallbladder polyps seems to be low, but the evidence from populations at high-risk of gallbladder cancer is limited. We aimed to estimate the risk and to identify the factors associated with neoplastic polyps in a high-risk Hispanic population.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort was recruited between January 2010 and December 2019 at a Chilean university center. Multivariate survival analyses were conducted. Fine-Gray models were fitted to account for competing risks. Covariate adjustment was conducted using propensity scores. The main outcome was the development of gallbladder adenomas or adenocarcinoma.

RESULTS

Overall, 748 patients were included, 59.6% underwent cholecystectomy. The median follow-up of patients not subjected to cholecystectomy was 54.7 months (12-128.6 months). Seventeen patients (2.27%) developed the outcome. After adjustment by age, sex, intralesional blood flow, lithiasis and gallbladder wall thickening, only polyp size (≥10 mm, adjusted-HR: 15.01, 95%CI: 5.4-48.2) and number of polyps (≥3 polyps, adjusted-HR: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.01-0.55) were associated with neoplasia.

CONCLUSION

In a Hispanic population at high-risk for gallbladder cancer, gallbladder polyps seem to have a low risk of neoplasia. Polyp size was the main risk factor, while having multiple polyps was associated with an underlying benign condition.

Association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and the risk of dementia: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little is known about the association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and dementia. Given that hepatic steatosis is linked to abnormal fat metabolism, and fat dysregulation in the brain is related to dementia, we aimed to investigate whether NAFLD is associated with an increased risk of dementia.

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide cohort study involving 4 031 948 subjects aged 40-69 years who underwent ≥2 health check-ups provided by the National Health Insurance Service in Korea between January 2004 and December 2007. Based on the hepatic steatosis index (HSI), subjects were categorized into non-NAFLD (HSI <30 at all check-ups) and NAFLD (HSI >36 at one or more check-ups). Dementia defined by ICD-10 codes with prescription data was followed up until December 2017. Cox proportional hazards regression models analysed the dementia risk.

RESULTS

At baseline, 31.3% had NAFLD. During the median follow-up of 9.5 years, 138 424 in NAFLD group and 69 982 in non-NAFLD group developed dementia. NAFLD group was associated with a higher risk of dementia than non-NAFLD group on multivariable-adjusted analysis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.05; p < .001), competing risk analysis (HR, 1.08; p < .001) and propensity-score matched analysis (HR, 1.09; p < .001). The association between NAFLD and dementia risk was more prominent among females (HR, 1.16; p < .001). The association was stronger among non-obese NAFLD subjects (BMI <25 kg/m² , HR, 1.09; p < .001) than obese NAFLD subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide study found that NAFLD is associated with an increased risk of dementia. The association was prominent among females and non-obese NAFLD subjects.

Robotic-assisted Versus Open Technique for Living Donor Kidney Transplantation: A Comparison Using Propensity Score Matching for Intention to Treat

Living donor robotic-assisted kidney transplantation (RAKT) is an alternative to open kidney transplantation (OKT), but experience with this technique is limited in the United States.

Triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, apolipoprotein C-III, angiopoietin-like protein 3, and cardiovascular events in older adults: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

AIMS

Despite statin and antihypertensive therapies, older Americans have high atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Novel measures of triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, low-density lipoprotein triglycerides (LDL-TG), and remnant-like particle cholesterol (RLP-C), are associated with ASCVD in middle-aged adults. Polymorphisms in genes encoding angiopoietin-related protein 3 (ANGPTL3) and apolipoprotein C-III (apoC-III), two proteins involved in triglyceride catabolism, are associated with increased risk for hypertriglyceridaemia and ASCVD and are potential therapeutic targets. We examined associations of LDL-TG, RLP-C, apoC-III, and ANGPTL3 levels with ASCVD events in older adults in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 6359 participants (mean age 75.8 ± 5.3 years) followed for ASCVD events [coronary heart disease (CHD) or ischaemic stroke] up to 6 years, associations between LDL-TG, RLP-C, apoC-III, and ANGPTL3 and ASCVD events were assessed using Cox regression. With adjustment for age, sex, and race, RLP-C, LDL-TG, apoC-III, and ANGPTL3 (as continuous variables) were significantly associated with CHD. However, after adjustment for traditional risk factors and lipid-lowering medications, only LDL-TG and ANGPTL3 were significantly associated with ASCVD events [hazard ratio (HR) 1.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.37 per log unit increase in LDL-TG; HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.17-2.28 per log unit increase in ANGPTL3].

CONCLUSIONS

In older adults, LDL-TG, RLP-C, apoC-III, and ANGPTL3 were associated with CHD events in minimally adjusted models; LDL-TG and ANGPTL3 remained independent predictors of ASCVD events with further adjustment. Future studies should assess potential benefit of lowering hepatic apoC-III or ANGPTL3 expression in patients with elevated triglyceride-rich lipoproteins.

Nonlinear Relationship Between Chinese Visceral Adiposity Index and New-Onset Myocardial Infarction in Patients with Hypertension and Obstructive Sleep Apnoea: Insights from a Cohort Study

Purpose

We aimed to investigate the relationship between the Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI) and the risk of new-onset myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with hypertension and obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) and to inspect possible modifiers of the effect.

Methods

The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between baseline CVAI and risk of new-onset MI. A generalized additive model was used to identify the nonlinear relationship. Besides, we conducted subgroup analyses and interaction tests.

Results

A total of 2177 patients with hypertension and OSA undergoing polysomnography were enrolled in this study. During a median follow-up period of 87 months, 82 participants developed new-onset MI. Overall, CVAI was positively related to the risk of new-onset MI (per 1 SD increase; HR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.28–1.85). In multivariable-adjusted models, the risk of new-onset MI increased with quartiles of CVAI, with an HR of 3.64 (95% CI: 1.94–6.83) for quartile 4 compared with quartile 1. The generalized additive model and smoothed curve fit revealed a nonlinear relationship between CVAI and risk of new-onset MI with an inflection point of approximately 112. None of the stratification variables had a significant effect on the relationship between CVAI and new-onset MI. Similar outcomes were observed in the sensitivity analysis. The addition of CVAI significantly improved reclassification and discrimination over the conventional model, with a category-free NRI of 0.132 (95% CI 0.021 to 0.236, P = 0.021) and an IDI of 0.012 (95% CI 0.005 to 0.023, P < 0.001).

Conclusion

This study demonstrated a nonlinear relationship between CVAI and the risk of new-onset MI in patients with hypertension and OSA. Higher CVAI was significantly associated with the risk of new-onset MI when CVAI was ≥112.

Impact of the acuity circle model for liver allocation on multivisceral transplant candidates

Liver allocation was updated on February 4, 2020, replacing a Donor Service Area (DSA) with acuity circles (AC). The impact on waitlist outcomes for patients listed for combined liver-intestine transplantation (multivisceral transplantation [MVT]) remains unknown. The Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network/United Network for Organ Sharing database was used to identify all candidates listed for both liver and intestine between January 1, 2018 and March 5, 2021. Two eras were defined: pre-AC (2018-2020) and post-AC (2020-2021). Outcomes included 90-day waitlist mortality and transplant probability. A total of 127 adult and 104 pediatric MVT listings were identified. In adults, the 90-day waitlist mortality was not statistically significantly different, but transplant probability was lower post-AC. After risk-adjustment, post-AC was associated with a higher albeit not statistically significantly different mortality hazard (sub-distribution hazard ratio[sHR]: 8.45, 95% CI: 0.96-74.05; p = .054), but a significantly lower transplant probability (sHR: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.15-0.75; p = .008). For pediatric patients, waitlist mortality and transplant probability were similar between eras. The proportion of patients who underwent transplant with exception points was lower post-AC both in adult (44% to 9%; p = .04) and pediatric recipients (65% to 15%; p = .002). A lower transplant probability observed in adults listed for MVT may ultimately result in increased waitlist mortality. Efforts should be taken to ensure equitable organ allocation in this vulnerable patient population.

Long-term outcomes of laparoscopic liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: A propensity score matched analysis of a high-volume North American center

BACKGROUND

Laparoscopic liver resections for malignancy are increasing worldwide, and yet data from North America are lacking. We aimed to assess the long-term outcomes of patients undergoing laparoscopic liver resection and open liver resection as a treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

Patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma between January 2008 and December 2019 were retrospectively studied. A propensity score matching was performed using patient demographics, laboratory parameters, etiology of liver disease, liver function, and tumor characteristics. Primary outcomes included overall survival and cumulative incidence of recurrence. Kaplan-Meier and competing risk cumulative incidence were used for survival analyses. Multivariable Cox regression and Fine-Gray proportional hazard regression were performed to determine hazard for death and recurrence, respectively.

RESULTS

Three hundred and ninety-one patients were identified (laparoscopic liver resection: 110; open liver resection: 281). After propensity score matching, 149 patients remained (laparoscopic liver resection: 57; open liver resection: 92). There were no significant differences between groups with regard to extent of hepatectomy performed and tumor characteristics. The laparoscopic liver resection group experienced a lower proportion of ≥Clavien-Dindo grade III complications (14% vs 29%; P = .01). In the matched cohort, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rate in the laparoscopic liver resection versus open liver resection group was 90.9%, 79.3%, 70.5% vs 91.3%, 88.5%, 83.1% (P = .26), and the cumulative incidence of recurrence 31.1%, 59.7%, 62.9% vs 18.9%, 40.6%, 49.2% (P = .06), respectively.

CONCLUSION

This study represents the largest single institutional study from North America comparing long-term oncologic outcomes of laparoscopic liver resection and open liver resection as a treatment for primary hepatocellular carcinoma. The combination of reduced short-term complications and equivalent long-term oncologic outcomes favor the laparoscopic approach when feasible.

Ankylosing Spondylitis: A Risk Factor for Parkinsonism-A Nationwide Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is an immune-mediated, chronic inflammatory rheumatic disorder. The etiology of Parkinson's disease (PD) is multifactorial; however, inflammation is receiving an increasing amount of attention as an underlying cause of the neurodegenerative process of PD.

OBJECTIVE

We performed a nationwide longitudinal, population-based matched cohort study to assess the association with the later development of parkinsonism in Korea.

METHODS

This study was conducted using records from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service database. The cumulative incidence rate of PD was estimated. Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models were used to identify hazards associated with PD development based on the presence of AS. Exposure to anti-inflammatory drugs was measured and analyzed to determine the protective effect of these medications. Additionally, the hazard ratio (HR) for atypical parkinsonism was estimated.

RESULTS

The results of the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model revealed that the HR for PD development in the AS group was 1.82 (95%confidence interval [CI], 1.38-2.39, p <  0.001). A significant decrease in PD development was observed in patients with AS taking non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). The HR for atypical parkinsonism in the AS group was 3.86 (95%CI, 1.08-13.78, p <  0.05).

CONCLUSION

We found that AS was associated with an increased risk of PD and atypical parkinsonism. NSAIDs used for AS control have some protective effects against PD. Further studies assessing whether biological treatment mitigates PD risk in patients with high activity are warranted.

Extreme hyponatremia as a risk factor for early mortality after liver transplantation in the MELD-sodium era

The impact of hyponatremia on waitlist and post-transplant outcomes following the implementation of MELD-Na-based liver allocation remains unclear. We investigated waitlist and postliver transplant (LT) outcomes in patients with hyponatremia before and after implementing MELD-Na-based allocation. Adult patients registered for a primary LT between 2009 and 2021 were identified in the OPTN/UNOS database. Two eras were defined; pre-MELD-Na and post-MELD-Na. Extreme hyponatremia was defined as a serum sodium concentration ≤120 mEq/l. Ninety-day waitlist outcomes and post-LT survival were compared using Fine-Gray proportional hazard and mixed-effects Cox proportional hazard models. A total of 118 487 patients were eligible (n = 64 940: pre-MELD-Na; n = 53 547: post-MELD-Na). In the pre-MELD-Na era, extreme hyponatremia at listing was associated with an increased risk of 90-day waitlist mortality ([ref: 135-145] HR: 3.80; 95% CI: 2.97-4.87; P < 0.001) and higher transplant probability (HR: 1.67; 95% CI: 1.38-2.01; P < 0.001). In the post-MELD-Na era, patients with extreme hyponatremia had a proportionally lower relative risk of waitlist mortality (HR: 2.27; 95% CI 1.60-3.23; P < 0.001) and proportionally higher transplant probability (HR: 2.12; 95% CI 1.76-2.55; P < 0.001) as patients with normal serum sodium levels (135-145). Extreme hyponatremia was associated with a higher risk of 90, 180, and 365-day post-LT survival compared to patients with normal serum sodium levels. With the introduction of MELD-Na-based allocation, waitlist outcomes have improved in patients with extreme hyponatremia but they continue to have worse short-term post-LT survival.

Trends in indications and outcomes of liver transplantation in Canada: A multicenter retrospective study

The liver transplantation (LT) landscape is continuously evolving. We sought to evaluate trends in indications for LT in Canada and the impact of primary liver disease on post-LT outcomes using a national transplant registry. Adult patients who underwent a primary LT between 2000 and 2018 were retrospectively identified in the Canadian Organ Replacement Registry. Outcomes included post-LT patient and graft survival. A total of 5,722 LTs were identified. The number of LT per year increased from 251 in 2000 to 349 in 2018. The proportion of patients transplanted for HCV decreased from 31.5% in 2000 to 3.4% in 2018. In contrast, the percentage of transplants for HCC increased from 2.3% in 2000 to 32.4% in 2018, and those performed for NASH increased from 0.4% in 2005 to 12.6% in 2018. Year of transplant (per 1 year) was protective for both patient (HR:0.96,95%CI:0.94-0.97; P < 0.001) and graft survival (HR:0.97, 95%CI: 0.96-0.99; P = 0.001). Post-LT outcomes have improved over time in this nationwide analysis spanning 18 years. Moreover, trends in the indications for LT have changed, with HCC becoming the leading etiology. The decrease in the proportion of HCV patients and increase in those with NASH has implications on the evolving management of LT patients.

Application of the modified Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill score to nutritional risk stratification of trauma victims: A multicenter observational study

BACKGROUND

The modified Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill (mNUTRIC) score was developed to identify patients most likely to benefit from nutritional therapies and to stratify or select study subjects for clinical trials. The score is not validated in trauma victims in whom adequate nutritional support is important and difficult to achieve. We sought to determine whether a higher mNUTRIC score was associated with worse outcomes and whether caloric and protein intake improved outcome more in patients classified as high risk relative to those classified as low risk.

METHODS

We analyzed a prospectively collected database of patients from intensive care units globally. The primary outcome was 60-day hospital mortality, and the secondary outcome was time to discharge alive. We compared outcomes between high and low mNUTRIC score groups and also tested whether the association between outcome and nutrition intake was modified by the mNUTRIC score.

RESULTS

A total of 771 trauma patients were included. Most (585; 76%) had a low-risk mNUTRIC (0-4) score, and 186 (24%) had a high-risk (5-9) mNUTRIC score. The overall 60-day mortality was 13%. Patients in the high mNUTRIC group had a higher risk of death than those in the low mNUTRIC group (adjusted odds ratio, 2.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-4.2). Overall, there was no relationship between caloric or protein intake and clinical outcomes. However, patients in the high mNUTRIC group fared better with increasing caloric and protein intake, whereas subjects in the low mNUTRIC score group did not (p values for interaction with the mNUTRIC score for time to discharge alive was p = 0.014 for calories and was p = 0.004 for protein).

CONCLUSION

A high mNUTRIC score identifies trauma patients at higher risk for poor outcomes and those who may benefit from higher caloric and protein intake.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiological/Prognostic, level III.

Tenofovir Versus Entecavir on Recurrence of Hepatitis B Virus-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Surgical Resection

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Studies have suggested that tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) treatment is associated with a significantly lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence when compared with entecavir (ETV) therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B. We aimed to compare HCC recurrence and survival of patients treated with TDF or ETV after surgical resection for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This historical cohort study included 1,695 consecutive patients treated with ETV (n = 813) or TDF (n = 882) after curative-intent hepatectomy for HBV-related HCC of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0 or A in Korea between 2010 and 2018. HCC recurrence and overall survival of patients were compared between ETV and TDF groups by propensity score-matched and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses from the date of hepatectomy for HCC. The mean age of the study patients was 54.8 years, and 1,294 patients (76.3%) were male. During the median follow-up duration of 37.6 months with continued ETV or TDF therapy, 561 (33.1%) patients developed HCC recurrence, 144 (8.4%) died, and 22 (1.3%) received liver transplant. Compared with ETV, TDF therapy was associated with significantly higher recurrence-free (P = 0.02) and overall survival (P = 0.03) rates by propensity score-matched analysis. By multivariable-adjusted analysis, the TDF group was associated with significantly lower rates of HCC recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.98; P = 0.03), and death or transplantation (HR, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.88; P = 0.01). TDF therapy was an independent protective factor for both early (<2 years; HR, 0.79; P = 0.03) and late (≥2 years; HR, 0.68; P = 0.03) postoperative HCC recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for HBV-related HCC, TDF therapy was associated with a significantly lower risk of HCC recurrence and better overall patient survival compared with ETV therapy.

Evaluation of Nutritional Support and In-Hospital Mortality in Patients With Malnutrition

IMPORTANCE

Malnutrition affects a considerable proportion of patients in the hospital and is associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Recent trials found a survival benefit among patients receiving nutritional support.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether there is an association of nutritional support with in-hospital mortality in routine clinical practice.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study was conducted from April 2013 to December 2018 among a population of patients from Swiss administrative claims data. From 114 264 hospitalizations of medical patients with malnutrition, 34 967 patients (30.6%) receiving nutritional support were 1:1 propensity score matched to patients with malnutrition in the hospital who were not receiving nutritional support. Patients in intensive care units were excluded. Data were analyzed from February 2020 to November 2020.

EXPOSURES

Receiving nutritional support, including dietary advice, oral nutritional supplementation, or enteral and parenteral nutrition.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were 30-day all-cause hospital readmission and discharge to a postacute care facility. Poisson and logistic regressions were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and odds ratios (ORs) of outcomes.

RESULTS

After matching, the study identified 69 934 hospitalizations of patients coded as having malnutrition in the cohort (mean [SD] age, 73.8 [14.5] years; 36 776 [52.6%] women). Patients receiving nutritional support, compared with those not receiving nutritional support, had a lower in-hospital mortality rate (2525 of 34 967 patients died [7.2%] vs 3072 of 34 967 patients died [8.8%]; IRR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.75-0.84]; P < .001) and a reduced 30-day readmission rate (IRR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.91-0.98]; P = .002). In addition, patients receiving nutritional support were less frequently discharged to a postacute care facility (13 691 patients [42.2%] vs 14 324 patients [44.9%]; OR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.86-0.91]; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that nutritional support was associated with reduced mortality among patients in the medical ward with malnutrition. The results support data found by randomized clinical trials and may help to inform patients, clinicians, and authorities regarding the usefulness of nutritional support in clinical practice.

Body composition predictors of outcome in patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Obesity is a strong risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, however, the distribution of fat and the amount of muscle mass are more accurate risk factors than BMI. The objective of this study was to assess body composition measures obtained on opportunistic abdominal CTs as predictors of outcome in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. We hypothesized that elevated visceral and intermuscular adipose tissue would be associated with adverse outcome.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Our retrospective study was IRB-approved and HIPAA-compliant. The study group comprised 124 patients (median age: 68 years, IQR: 56, 77; 59 weeks, 65 months) who were admitted with COVID-19 to a single hospital and who had undergone abdominal CT for clinical purposes. Visceral adipose tissue (VAT), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), intermuscular adipose tissue (IMAT), and paraspinal and abdominal muscle cross-sectional areas (CSA) were assessed. Clinical information including prognostic factors, time of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and time of death within 28 days were obtained. Multivariate time-to-event competing risk models were fitted to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for a composite outcome of ICU admission/mortality associated with a one standard deviation increase in each body compositional measure. Each model was adjusted for age, sex, race, BMI, and cardiometabolic comorbidities.

RESULTS

There were 50 patients who were admitted to the ICU or deceased over a median time of 1 day [IQR 1, 6] from hospital admission. Higher VAT/SAT ratio (HR of 1.30; 95% CI 1.04-1.62, p = 0.022) and higher IMAT CSA (HR of 1.44; 95% CI 1.10-1.89, p = 0.008) were associated with a reduced time to ICU admission or death in adjusted models.

CONCLUSION

VAT/SAT and IMAT are predictors of adverse outcome in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, independent of other established prognostic factors. This suggests that body composition measures may serve as novel biomarkers of outcome in patients with COVID-19.

Longitudinal Outcomes in Octogenarian Critically Ill Patients with a Focus on Frailty and Cardiac Surgery

Cardiac surgery (CSX) can be lifesaving in elderly patients (age ≥ 80 years) but may still be associated with complications and functional decline. Frailty represents a determinant to outcomes in critically ill patients, but little is known about its influence on elderly CSX-patients. This is a secondary exploratory analysis of a multi-center, prospective observational cohort study of 610 elderly patients admitted to the ICU and followed for one year to document long-term outcomes. CSX-ICU-patients (n = 49) were compared to surgical ICU patients (n = 184) with regard to demographics, frailty, and outcomes. Of all surgical patients, 102 (43%) were considered vulnerable or frail. The subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) of time to discharge home (TTDH) for vulnerable/frail vs. fit/well patients was 0.54 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.34, 0.86, p = 0.007). The p-value for effect modification between surgery group (CSX vs. surgical ICU patients) and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) group was not significant (p = 0.37) suggesting that the observed difference in the CFS effect between the CSX and surgical ICU patients is consistent with random error. A further subgroup analysis shows that among surgical ICU patients, the SHR of time to discharge home (TTDH) for vulnerable/frail vs. fit/well patients was 0.49 (95% CI, 0.29, 0.83) while the corresponding SHR for CSX patients was 0.77 (0.32–1.88). In conclusion, preoperative frailty reduced the rate of discharge to home in both surgical and CSX patients, but a larger sample of CSX patients is needed to adequately address this question in this patient group.

Development and Validation of Nomograms for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Elderly Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma After Liver Resection: A Competing Risk Analysis

Background

There are few studies on the prognosis of elderly intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) patients after liver resection. The aims of this study were to assess the cumulative incidences of cancer-specific mortality in elderly iCCA patients and to construct a corresponding competing risk nomogram for elderly iCCA patients.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of elderly patients with iCCA who underwent liver resection between January 2006 and December 2019. Eligible elderly iCCA patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets at a ratio of 7:3. Based on the results of multivariate analysis using the Fine-Gray competing risk model, we developed a competing risk nomogram using data from the training set to predict the cumulative probabilities of iCCA-specific mortality. The performance of the nomogram was measured by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. To evaluate the clinical usefulness of the nomogram, the clinical benefit was measured by using decision curve analysis (DCA). Furthermore, the patients were categorized into two groups according to the dichotomy values of the nomogram-based scores, and their survival differences were assessed using Kaplan–Meier and cumulative incidence function (CIF) curves.

Results

The 1-year, 3-year and 5-year cumulative iCCA-specific mortalities were 19.7%, 48.3% and 56.1%, respectively, for elderly iCCA patients. The multivariate Fine-Gray analysis indicated that microvascular invasion, macroscopic vascular invasion and lymph node metastasis were related to a significantly higher likelihood of iCCA specific mortality. The established nomogram was well calibrated and had a good discriminative ability, with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.742 (95% CI, 0.708–0.748). Furthermore, the DCA indicated that the nomogram had positive net benefits compared with the conventional staging systems. In the training set and validation sets, the high-risk group had the higher probabilities of iCCA cancer-specific mortality than the low-risk group; meanwhile, the patients in the high-risk the group had significantly poorer overall survival (OS) than those in the low-risk group.

Conclusion

Elderly iCCA patients had comparable long-term outcomes with non-elderly iCCA patients. In addition, we constructed a prognostic nomogram for predicting survival in elderly iCCA patients based on the competing risk analysis. The competing risk nomogram displayed excellent discrimination and calibration.

Excess cumulative incidence estimation for matched cohort survival studies

We suggest a regression approach to estimate the excess cumulative incidence function (CIF) when matched data are available. In a competing risk setting, we define the excess risk as the difference between the CIF in the exposed group and the background CIF observed in the unexposed group. We show that the excess risk can be estimated through an extended binomial regression model that actively uses the matched structure of the data, avoiding further estimation of both the exposed and the unexposed CIFs. The method naturally deals with two time scales, age and time since exposure and simplifies how to deal with the left truncation on the age time-scale. The model makes it easy to predict individual excess risk scenarios and allows for a direct interpretation of the covariate effects on the cumulative incidence scale. After introducing the model and some theory to justify the approach, we show via simulations that our model works well in practice. We conclude by applying the excess risk model to data from the ALiCCS study to investigate the excess risk of late events in childhood cancer survivors.

General regression model for the subdistribution of a competing risk under left-truncation and right-censoring

Left-truncation poses extra challenges for the analysis of complex time-to-event data. We propose a general semiparametric regression model for left-truncated and right-censored competing risks data that is based on a novel weighted conditional likelihood function. Targeting the subdistribution hazard, our parameter estimates are directly interpretable with regard to the cumulative incidence function. We compare different weights from recent literature and develop a heuristic interpretation from a cure model perspective that is based on pseudo risk sets. Our approach accommodates external time-dependent covariate effects on the subdistribution hazard. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators and propose a sandwich estimator of the variance. In comprehensive simulation studies we demonstrate solid performance of the proposed method. Comparing the sandwich estimator with the inverse Fisher information matrix, we observe a bias for the inverse Fisher information matrix and diminished coverage probabilities in settings with a higher percentage of left-truncation. To illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method, we study its application to a large HIV vaccine efficacy trial dataset.

Estimating cumulative incidence functions in competing risks data with dependent left-truncation

Both delayed study entry (left-truncation) and competing risks are common phenomena in observational time-to-event studies. For example, in studies conducted by Teratology Information Services (TIS) on adverse drug reactions during pregnancy, the natural time scale is gestational age, but women enter the study after time origin and upon contact with the service. Competing risks are present, because an elective termination may be precluded by a spontaneous abortion. If left-truncation is entirely random, the Aalen-Johansen estimator is the canonical estimator of the cumulative incidence functions of the competing events. If the assumption of random left-truncation is in doubt, we propose a new semiparametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function. The dependence between entry time and time-to-event is modeled using a cause-specific Cox proportional hazards model and the marginal (unconditional) estimates are derived via inverse probability weighting arguments. We apply the new estimator to data about coumarin usage during pregnancy. Here, the concern is that the cause-specific hazard of experiencing an induced abortion may depend on the time when seeking advice by a TIS, which also is the time of left-truncation or study entry. While the aims of counseling by a TIS are to reduce the rate of elective terminations based on irrational overestimation of drug risks and to lead to better and safer medical treatment of maternal disease, it is conceivable that women considering an induced abortion are more likely to seek counseling. The new estimator is also evaluated in extensive simulation studies and found preferable compared to the Aalen-Johansen estimator in non-misspecified scenarios and to at least provide for a sensitivity analysis otherwise.

Clinical Determinants and Prognostic Implications of Right Ventricular Dysfunction in Pulmonary Hypertension Caused by Chronic Lung Disease

Background

Patients with pulmonary hypertension caused by chronic lung disease (Group 3 PH) have disproportionate right ventricle (RV) dysfunction, but the correlates and clinical implications of RV dysfunction in Group 3 PH are not well defined.

Methods and Results

We performed a cohort study of 147 Group 3 PH patients evaluated at the University of Minnesota. RV systolic function was quantified using right ventricular fractional area change (RVFAC) and ⁺dP/dt_max/instantaneous pressure. Tau and RV diastolic stiffness characterized RV diastolic function. Multivariate linear regression was used to define correlates of RVFAC. Kaplan‐Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to examine freedom from heart failure hospitalization and death. Positive correlates of RVFAC on univariate analysis were pulmonary arterial compliance, cardiac index, and left ventricular diastolic dimension. Conversely, male sex, N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide, heart rate, right atrial enlargement, mean pulmonary arterial pressure, and pulmonary vascular resistance were negative correlates. Male sex was the strongest predictor of lower RVFAC, after adjusting for pulmonary vascular resistance and pulmonary arterial compliance. When comparing sexes, males had lower RVFAC (26% versus 31%, P=0.03) both overall and for any given mean pulmonary arterial pressure and pulmonary vascular resistance value. Males exhibited a reduction in ⁺dP/dt_max/instantaneous pressure as pulmonary vascular resistance increased, whereas females did not. There were no sex differences in RV diastolic function. RV dysfunction (RVFAC <28%) was associated with increased risk of heart failure hospitalization or death (hazard ratio: 1.84, 95% CI: 1.04–3.10, P=0.035).

Conclusions

Male sex is associated with RV dysfunction in Group 3 PH, even after adjusting for RV afterload. RV dysfunction (RVFAC <28%) identifies Group 3 PH patients at risk for poor outcomes.

Allergic rhinitis increases the risk of incident panic disorder among young individuals: A nationwide population-based cohort study in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Studies have reported an association between allergy and panic disorder. However, few studies have explored the relationship between allergic rhinitis and panic disorder. Previous studies were limited by cross-sectional study designs, self-reported symptoms, absence of matched controls, and lack of consideration of the influence of steroid and comorbidities. This study aimed to explore the longitudinal association between allergic rhinitis and panic disorder in a large population-based cohort of young people.

METHODS

In this study, 79,917 new cases of allergic rhinitis between 1998 and 2012 in individuals younger than 20 years were identified from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. One control (nonallergic rhinitis) per case (allergic rhinitis) was randomly selected from the remaining sample, matching for age, sex, residence, and insurance premium. Both groups were followed until the end of 2013 for incidence of panic disorder. Cox regression analysis was performed, adjusting for sex, age, residence, insurance premium, systemic steroids, asthma, atopic dermatitis, allergic conjunctivitis, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, depression, and Charlson index.

RESULTS

Allergic rhinitis was associated with a 2-fold increase in risk for panic disorder after adjustment for other variables. Additional independent risk factor of panic disorders were female sex, older age group, and depression.

LIMITATIONS

Lifestyle, substance use, smoking by the patient or family members, and psychosocial stressors were not evaluated.

CONCLUSIONS

Allergic rhinitis was associated with increased risk of panic disorder. Assessment and intervention of allergy rhinitis among young people with panic disorder are critical.

Depression and Health Care Utilization at End of Life Among Older Adults With Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

CONTEXT

Limited data exist regarding how depression diagnosed at different times relative to a cancer diagnosis may affect healthcare utilization at end of life (EOL).

OBJECTIVES

To assess the relationship between depression and health care utilization at EOL among older adults (ages >=67) diagnosed with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from 2009 to 2011.

METHODS

Using the SEER-Medicare database, we fit multivariable logistic regression models to explore the association of depression with duration of hospice stay plus high-intensity care, for example inpatient admissions, in-hospital death, emergency department visits, and chemotherapy at EOL. We used a regression model to evaluate hospice enrollment, accounting for the competing risk of death.

RESULTS

Among 13,827 subjects, pre-cancer depression was associated with hospice enrollment (sub-hazard ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.28), 90 + hospice days (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.29, 95% CI 1.06-1.58), and lower odds of most utilization; we found no association with EOL chemotherapy. Diagnosis-time depression was associated with hospice enrollment (SHR 1.16, 95% CI 1.05-1.29) but not high-intensity utilization. Post-diagnosis depression was associated with lower hospice enrollment (SHR 0.80, 95% CI 0.74-0.85) and higher odds of ICU admission (aOR 1.18, 95% CI 1.01-1.37).

CONCLUSION

EOL healthcare utilization varied by timing of depression diagnosis. Those with pre-cancer depression had lower odds of high-intensity healthcare, were more likely to utilize hospice, and have longer hospice stays. Regular depression screening and treatment may help patients optimize decision-making for EOL care. Additionally, hospice providers may need additional resources to attend to mental health needs in this population.

Working to Increase Stability through Exercise (WISE): Study protocol for a pragmatic randomized controlled trial of a coached exercise program to reduce serious fall-related injuries

Approximately one-third of older adults fall each year and fall-related injuries are a leading cause of death and disability among this rapidly expanding age group. Despite the availability of bisphosphonates to reduce fractures, concerns over side effects have dramatically reduced use, suggesting that other treatment options are needed. Though many smaller studies have shown that physical activity programs can reduce falls, no study has been adequately powered to detect a reduction in fall-related injuries. We present the design of a three-year randomized controlled clinical trial of 1130 adults age 65 and older with a past history of fragility fractures (e.g., vertebral, fall-related). The main aim is to determine the impact of a community-based multicomponent (strength, balance, aerobic) physical activity program led by trained volunteers (or delivered via DVD) and accompanied by coaching and oversight, by telephone and in-person, by a fitness professional. The main outcome measure is serious fall-related injuries. Secondary outcomes include health care utilization, bone and muscle mass, loneliness, health-related quality of life and mood. The study represents the first large clinical trial of a comprehensive physical activity program to reduce secondary injuries among patients with a history of fragility fracture.

Left ventricular assist device is protective against cardiac transplant delisting for medical unsuitability

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular assist device (LVAD) related complications have the potential to disqualify patients for heart transplantation. We sought to determine whether LVAD support was associated with increased rates of delisting due to medical unsuitability or clinical deterioration.

METHODS

The analysis included adult candidates listed for first-time heart transplantation in the UNOS registry in the contemporary, continuous flow (CF)- LVAD era (2010-2016). The exposure variable was LVAD support on the waitlist. The primary outcome was time to delisting due to medical unsuitability or clinical deterioration. As cardiac transplantation and death represent competing risks in this study, a Fine-Gray cox regression analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Data on 16,913 patients listed for heart transplant were analyzed. During a median follow up of 150 days, 1206 (7.1%) patients died, 10,083 (60%) were transplanted, and 1224 (7.2%) were delisted due to medical unsuitability or clinical deterioration. Presence of a LVAD at listing was associated with a reduced rate (hazard) of delisting both in the adjusted and unadjusted models (unadjusted HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.55-0.73, adjusted HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.67-0.90). Delayed LVAD while on the list was not associated with reduced rates of delisting (adjusted HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.79-1.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Continuous flow left ventricular assist device support was protective against delisting in this UNOS analysis. These data would suggest that despite the adverse event rate of mechanical support, improving cardiac output may be important to preserving the overall health of the potential cardiac transplant recipient.

Does a Supplemental Low-Protein Diet Decrease Mortality and Adverse Events After Commencing Dialysis? A Nationwide Cohort Study

Background: A beneficial effect of a ketoanalogue-supplemented low-protein diet (sLPD) in postponing dialysis has been demonstrated in numerous previous studies. However, evidence regarding its effect on long-term survival is limited. Our study assessed the long-term outcomes of patients on an sLPD after commencing dialysis. Methods: This retrospective study examined patients with new-onset end-stage renal disease with permanent dialysis between 2001 and 2013, extracted from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients who received more than 3 months of sLPD treatment in the year preceding the start of dialysis were extracted. The outcomes studied were all-cause mortality, infection rate, and major cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs). Results: After propensity score matching, the sLPD group (n = 2607) showed a lower risk of all-cause mortality (23.1% vs. 27.6%, hazard ratio (HR) 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70–0.84), MACCEs (19.2% vs. 21.5%, HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78–0.94), and infection-related death (9.9% vs. 12.5%, HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.67–0.87) than the non-sLPD group did. Conclusion: We found that sLPD treatment might be safe without long-term negative consequences after dialysis treatment.

Coffee Intake and Incidence of Erectile Dysfunction

Coffee intake is suggested to have a positive impact on chronic diseases, yet its role in urological diseases such as erectile dysfunction (ED) remains unclear. We investigated the association of coffee intake with incidence of ED by conducting the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study, a prospective analysis of 21,403 men aged 40-75 years old. Total, regular, and decaffeinated coffee intakes were self-reported on food frequency questionnaires. ED was assessed by mean values of questionnaires in 2000, 2004 and 2008. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute hazard ratios for patients with incident ED (n = 7,298). No significant differences were identified for patients with incident ED after comparing highest (≥4 cups/day) with lowest (0 cups/day) categories of total (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.00, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90, 1.11) and regular coffee intakes (HR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.13). When comparing the highest category with lowest category of decaffeinated coffee intake, we found a 37% increased risk of ED (HR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.73), with a significant trend (P trend = 0.02). Stratified analyses also showed an association among current smokers (P trend = 0.005). Overall, long-term coffee intake was not associated with risk of ED in a prospective cohort study.

Antiestrogen use reduces risk of cervical neoplasia in breast cancer patients: a population-based study

Estrogen has been proven to be a necessity for cervical carcinogenesis by transgenic mice studies. To determine whether long-term antiestrogens use could reduce the incidence of cervical neoplasia, a population-based cohort of 42,940 breast cancer patients with and without antiestrogen therapy were identified from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database. All patients were followed for the most severe form of cervical neoplasia or until death. Their risks of cervical neoplasia were compared with Cox regression analysis and adjusted for age, Pap smear density and chemotherapy. Aromatase inhibitor (AI)-included antiestrogen users consistently exhibited a lower risk of low-grade cervical dysplasia [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.42, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.64, P < 0.0001] in the five-year follow-up analysis and in subgroup of regular Pap screenings (HR = 0.32, 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.50, P < 0.0001). A lower 10-year incidence of high-grade cervical dysplasia was also noted in the regular-screening group (HR = 0.49; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.90; P = 0.0212), especially in the ≥ 50 years old group (HR = 0.34; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.80; P = 0.014). The protection effect of Tamoxifen-only use for low-grade cervical dysplasia was only found in the young-age, regular-screening group (HR = 0.67; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.93; P = 0.0167). In short, long-term use of AI-included antiestrogen conferred a lower risk of cervical neoplasia.

Preoperative Pectoralis Muscle Quantity and Attenuation by Computed Tomography Are Novel and Powerful Predictors of Mortality After Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation

BACKGROUND

Skeletal muscle mass decreases in end-stage heart failure and is predictive of clinical outcomes in several disease states. Skeletal muscle attenuation and quantity as quantified on preoperative chest computed tomographic scans may be predictive of mortality after continuous flow (CF) left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A single-center continuous flow-LVAD database (n=354) was used to identify patients with chest computed tomographies performed in the 3 months before LVAD implantation (n=143). Among patients with computed tomography data available, unilateral pectoralis muscle mass indexed to body surface area and attenuation (approximated by mean Hounsfield units [PHU_m]) were measured in each patient with a high intrarater and inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficients 0.98 and 0.97, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed, censoring at cardiac transplantation, to assess the impact of preoperative pectoralis muscle index and pectoralis muscle mean Hounsfield unit on survival after LVAD implantation. Each unit increase in pectoralis muscle index was associated with a 27% reduction in the hazard of death after LVAD (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.92; P=0.007). Each 5-U increase in pectoralis muscle mean Hounsfield unit was associated with a 22% reduction in the hazard of death after LVAD (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.89; P<0.0001). Pectoralis muscle index and pectoralis muscle mean Hounsfield unit outperformed other traditional measures in the data set, including the HeartMate II risk score.

CONCLUSIONS

Pectoralis muscle size and attenuation were powerful predictors of outcomes after LVAD implantation in this data set. This one time, repeatable, internal assessment of patient substrate added valuable prognostic information that was not available on standard preoperative testing.