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de Winkel J, Maas CCHM, Roozenbeek B, van Klaveren D, Lingsma HF. Pitfalls of single-study external validation illustrated with a model predicting functional outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. BMC Med Res Methodol 2024; 24:176. [PMID: 39118007 PMCID: PMC11308226 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02280-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2023] [Accepted: 07/09/2024] [Indexed: 08/10/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prediction models are often externally validated with data from a single study or cohort. However, the interpretation of performance estimates obtained with single-study external validation is not as straightforward as assumed. We aimed to illustrate this by conducting a large number of external validations of a prediction model for functional outcome in subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) patients. METHODS We used data from the Subarachnoid Hemorrhage International Trialists (SAHIT) data repository (n = 11,931, 14 studies) to refit the SAHIT model for predicting a dichotomous functional outcome (favorable versus unfavorable), with the (extended) Glasgow Outcome Scale or modified Rankin Scale score, at a minimum of three months after discharge. We performed leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation to mimic the process of multiple single-study external validations. Each study represented one cluster. In each of these validations, we assessed discrimination with Harrell's c-statistic and calibration with calibration plots, the intercepts, and the slopes. We used random effects meta-analysis to obtain the (reference) mean performance estimates and between-study heterogeneity (I2-statistic). The influence of case-mix variation on discriminative performance was assessed with the model-based c-statistic and we fitted a "membership model" to obtain a gross estimate of transportability. RESULTS Across 14 single-study external validations, model performance was highly variable. The mean c-statistic was 0.74 (95%CI 0.70-0.78, range 0.52-0.84, I2 = 0.92), the mean intercept was -0.06 (95%CI -0.37-0.24, range -1.40-0.75, I2 = 0.97), and the mean slope was 0.96 (95%CI 0.78-1.13, range 0.53-1.31, I2 = 0.90). The decrease in discriminative performance was attributable to case-mix variation, between-study heterogeneity, or a combination of both. Incidentally, we observed poor generalizability or transportability of the model. CONCLUSIONS We demonstrate two potential pitfalls in the interpretation of model performance with single-study external validation. With single-study external validation. (1) model performance is highly variable and depends on the choice of validation data and (2) no insight is provided into generalizability or transportability of the model that is needed to guide local implementation. As such, a single single-study external validation can easily be misinterpreted and lead to a false appreciation of the clinical prediction model. Cross-validation is better equipped to address these pitfalls.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jordi de Winkel
- Department of Neurology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, 40 Doctor Molewaterplein, P.O. Box 2040, Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, 3015 GD, The Netherlands.
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, The Netherlands.
| | - Carolien C H M Maas
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, The Netherlands
| | - Bob Roozenbeek
- Department of Neurology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, 40 Doctor Molewaterplein, P.O. Box 2040, Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, 3015 GD, The Netherlands
| | - David van Klaveren
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, The Netherlands
| | - Hester F Lingsma
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, The Netherlands
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Boldingh JWHL, Arbous MS, Biemond BJ, Blijlevens NMA, van Bommel J, Hilkens MGEC, Kusadasi N, Muller MCA, de Vries VA, Steyerberg EW, van den Bergh WM. Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for 1-Year Mortality in Patients With a Hematologic Malignancy Admitted to the ICU. Crit Care Explor 2024; 6:e1093. [PMID: 38813435 PMCID: PMC11132307 DOI: 10.1097/cce.0000000000001093] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/31/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To develop and validate a prediction model for 1-year mortality in patients with a hematologic malignancy acutely admitted to the ICU. DESIGN A retrospective cohort study. SETTING Five university hospitals in the Netherlands between 2002 and 2015. PATIENTS A total of 1097 consecutive patients with a hematologic malignancy were acutely admitted to the ICU for at least 24 h. INTERVENTIONS None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS We created a 13-variable model from 22 potential predictors. Key predictors included active disease, age, previous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, mechanical ventilation, lowest platelet count, acute kidney injury, maximum heart rate, and type of malignancy. A bootstrap procedure reduced overfitting and improved the model's generalizability. This involved estimating the optimism in the initial model and shrinking the regression coefficients accordingly in the final model. We assessed performance using internal-external cross-validation by center and compared it with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II model. Additionally, we evaluated clinical usefulness through decision curve analysis. The overall 1-year mortality rate observed in the study was 62% (95% CI, 59-65). Our 13-variable prediction model demonstrated acceptable calibration and discrimination at internal-external validation across centers (C-statistic 0.70; 95% CI, 0.63-0.77), outperforming the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II model (C-statistic 0.61; 95% CI, 0.57-0.65). Decision curve analysis indicated overall net benefit within a clinically relevant threshold probability range of 60-100% predicted 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS Our newly developed 13-variable prediction model predicts 1-year mortality in hematologic malignancy patients admitted to the ICU more accurately than the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II model. This model may aid in shared decision-making regarding the continuation of ICU care and end-of-life considerations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan-Willem H L Boldingh
- Department of Critical Care, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
- Department of Anaesthesiology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - M Sesmu Arbous
- Department of Critical Care, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Bart J Biemond
- Department of Hematology, Amsterdam University Medical Center (location AMC), University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Nicole M A Blijlevens
- Department of Hematology, Radboud University Medical Center Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Jasper van Bommel
- Department of Critical Care, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Murielle G E C Hilkens
- Department of Critical Care, Radboud University Medical Center Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Nuray Kusadasi
- Department of Critical Care, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Marcella C A Muller
- Department of Critical Care, Amsterdam University Medical Center (location AMC), University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Vera A de Vries
- Department of Critical Care, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Ewout W Steyerberg
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Walter M van den Bergh
- Department of Critical Care, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Bouvier F, Peyrot E, Balendran A, Ségalas C, Roberts I, Petit F, Porcher R. Do machine learning methods lead to similar individualized treatment rules? A comparison study on real data. Stat Med 2024; 43:2043-2061. [PMID: 38472745 DOI: 10.1002/sim.10059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2023] [Revised: 01/30/2024] [Accepted: 03/01/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024]
Abstract
Identifying patients who benefit from a treatment is a key aspect of personalized medicine, which allows the development of individualized treatment rules (ITRs). Many machine learning methods have been proposed to create such rules. However, to what extent the methods lead to similar ITRs, that is, recommending the same treatment for the same individuals is unclear. In this work, we compared 22 of the most common approaches in two randomized control trials. Two classes of methods can be distinguished. The first class of methods relies on predicting individualized treatment effects from which an ITR is derived by recommending the treatment evaluated to the individuals with a predicted benefit. In the second class, methods directly estimate the ITR without estimating individualized treatment effects. For each trial, the performance of ITRs was assessed by various metrics, and the pairwise agreement between all ITRs was also calculated. Results showed that the ITRs obtained via the different methods generally had considerable disagreements regarding the patients to be treated. A better concordance was found among akin methods. Overall, when evaluating the performance of ITRs in a validation sample, all methods produced ITRs with limited performance, suggesting a high potential for optimism. For non-parametric methods, this optimism was likely due to overfitting. The different methods do not lead to similar ITRs and are therefore not interchangeable. The choice of the method strongly influences for which patients a certain treatment is recommended, drawing some concerns about their practical use.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florie Bouvier
- Inserm, INRAE, Center for Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS), Université Paris Cité and Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Paris, France
| | - Etienne Peyrot
- Inserm, INRAE, Center for Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS), Université Paris Cité and Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Paris, France
| | - Alan Balendran
- Inserm, INRAE, Center for Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS), Université Paris Cité and Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Paris, France
| | - Corentin Ségalas
- Bordeaux Population Health Research Center, Université de Bordeaux, Inserm, Bordeaux, France
| | - Ian Roberts
- Clinical Trials Unit, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - François Petit
- Inserm, INRAE, Center for Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS), Université Paris Cité and Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Paris, France
| | - Raphaël Porcher
- Inserm, INRAE, Center for Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS), Université Paris Cité and Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Paris, France
- Centre d'Épidémiologie Clinique, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Hôtel-Dieu, Paris, France
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Stogiannis D, Siannis F, Androulakis E. Heterogeneity in meta-analysis: a comprehensive overview. Int J Biostat 2024; 20:169-199. [PMID: 36961993 DOI: 10.1515/ijb-2022-0070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 02/10/2023] [Indexed: 03/26/2023]
Abstract
In recent years, meta-analysis has evolved to a critically important field of Statistics, and has significant applications in Medicine and Health Sciences. In this work we briefly present existing methodologies to conduct meta-analysis along with any discussion and recent developments accompanying them. Undoubtedly, studies brought together in a systematic review will differ in one way or another. This yields a considerable amount of variability, any kind of which may be termed heterogeneity. To this end, reports of meta-analyses commonly present a statistical test of heterogeneity when attempting to establish whether the included studies are indeed similar in terms of the reported output or not. We intend to provide an overview of the topic, discuss the potential sources of heterogeneity commonly met in the literature and provide useful guidelines on how to address this issue and to detect heterogeneity. Moreover, we review the recent developments in the Bayesian approach along with the various graphical tools and statistical software that are currently available to the analyst. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis issues and other approaches of understanding the causes of heterogeneity. Finally, we explore heterogeneity in meta-analysis for time to event data in a nutshell, pointing out its unique characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Fotios Siannis
- Department of Mathematics, National and Kapodistrian University, Athens, Greece
| | - Emmanouil Androulakis
- Mathematical Modeling and Applications Laboratory, Section of Mathematics, Hellenic Naval Academy, Piraeus, Greece
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Bouvier F, Chaimani A, Peyrot E, Gueyffier F, Grenet G, Porcher R. Estimating individualized treatment effects using an individual participant data meta-analysis. BMC Med Res Methodol 2024; 24:74. [PMID: 38528447 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02202-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 03/15/2024] [Indexed: 03/27/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND One key aspect of personalized medicine is to identify individuals who benefit from an intervention. Some approaches have been developed to estimate individualized treatment effects (ITE) with a single randomized control trial (RCT) or observational data, but they are often underpowered for the ITE estimation. Using individual participant data meta-analyses (IPD-MA) might solve this problem. Few studies have investigated how to develop risk prediction models with IPD-MA, and it remains unclear how to combine those methods with approaches used for ITE estimation. In this article, we compared different approaches using both simulated and real data with binary and time-to-event outcomes to estimate the individualized treatment effects from an IPD-MA in a one-stage approach. METHODS We compared five one-stage models: naive model (NA), random intercept (RI), stratified intercept (SI), rank-1 (R1), and fully stratified (FS), built with two different strategies, the S-learner and the T-learner constructed with a Monte Carlo simulation study in which we explored different scenarios with a binary or a time-to-event outcome. To evaluate the performance of the models, we used the c-statistic for benefit, the calibration of predictions, and the mean squared error. The different models were also used on the INDANA IPD-MA, comparing an anti-hypertensive treatment to no treatment or placebo ( N = 40 237 , 836 events). RESULTS Simulation results showed that using the S-learner led to better ITE estimation performances for both binary and time-to-event outcomes. None of the risk models stand out and had significantly better results. For the INDANA dataset with a binary outcome, the naive and the random intercept models had the best performances. CONCLUSIONS For the choice of the strategy, using interactions with treatment (the S-learner) is preferable. For the choice of the method, no approach is better than the other.
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Affiliation(s)
- Florie Bouvier
- Université Paris Cité and Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Inserm, INRAE, Center for Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS), Paris, France.
| | - Anna Chaimani
- Université Paris Cité and Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Inserm, INRAE, Center for Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS), Paris, France
- Cochrane France, Paris, France
| | - Etienne Peyrot
- Université Paris Cité and Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Inserm, INRAE, Center for Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS), Paris, France
| | - François Gueyffier
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive UMR 5558, CNRS, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Guillaume Grenet
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive UMR 5558, CNRS, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Raphaël Porcher
- Université Paris Cité and Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Inserm, INRAE, Center for Research in Epidemiology and StatisticS (CRESS), Paris, France
- Centre d'Épidémiologie Clinique, AP-HP, Hôtel-Dieu, Paris, France
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Douda L, Hasnat H, Schwank J, Nassar S, Jackson NM, Flynn JC, Gardiner J, Misra DP, Sankari A. Predictors of Intensive Care Unit Admissions in Patients Presenting with Coronavirus Disease 2019. Avicenna J Med 2024; 14:45-53. [PMID: 38694135 PMCID: PMC11057900 DOI: 10.1055/s-0043-1778068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Increased mortality rates among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) positive patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) highlight a compelling need to establish predictive criteria for ICU admissions. The aim of our study was to identify criteria for recognizing patients with COVID-19 at elevated risk for ICU admission. Methods We identified patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were hospitalized between March and May 2020. Patients' data were manually abstracted through review of electronic medical records. An ICU admission prediction model was derived from a random sample of half the patients using multivariable logistic regression. The model was validated with the remaining half of the patients using c-statistic. Results We identified 1,094 patients; 204 (18.6%) were admitted to the ICU. Correlates of ICU admission were age, body mass index (BMI), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, arterial oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio, platelet count, and white blood cell count. The c-statistic in the derivation subset (0.798, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.748, 0.848) and the validation subset (0.764, 95% CI: 0.706, 0.822) showed excellent comparability. At 22% predicted probability for ICU admission, the derivation subset estimated sensitivity was 0.721, (95% CI: 0.637, 0.804) and specificity was 0.763, (95% CI: 0.722, 0.804). Our pilot predictive model identified the combination of age, BMI, qSOFA score, and oxygenation status as significant predictors for ICU admission. Conclusion ICU admission among patients with COVID-19 can be predicted by age, BMI, level of hypoxia, and severity of illness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lahib Douda
- Department of Medical Education, Ascension Providence Hospital/Michigan State University College of Human Medicine, Southfield, Michigan, United States
| | - Heraa Hasnat
- Department of Medical Education, Ascension Providence Hospital/Michigan State University College of Human Medicine, Southfield, Michigan, United States
| | - Jennifer Schwank
- Department of Medicine, Michigan State University College of Human Medicine, East Lansing, Michigan, United States
| | - Sarien Nassar
- Department of Medicine, Michigan State University College of Human Medicine, East Lansing, Michigan, United States
| | - Nancy M. Jackson
- Department of Medical Education, Ascension Providence Hospital/Michigan State University College of Human Medicine, Southfield, Michigan, United States
| | - Jeffrey C. Flynn
- Department of Medical Education, Ascension Providence Hospital/Michigan State University College of Human Medicine, Southfield, Michigan, United States
| | - Joseph Gardiner
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michigan State University College of Human Medicine, East Lansing, Michigan, United States
| | - Dawn P. Misra
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michigan State University College of Human Medicine, East Lansing, Michigan, United States
| | - Abdulghani Sankari
- Department of Medical Education, Ascension Providence Hospital/Michigan State University College of Human Medicine, Southfield, Michigan, United States
- Department of Medicine, Michigan State University College of Human Medicine, East Lansing, Michigan, United States
- Department of Medicine, Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan, United States
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Zuercher P, Moser A, Garcia de Guadiana-Romualdo L, Llewelyn MJ, Graf R, Reding T, Eggimann P, Que YA, Prazak J. Discriminative performance of pancreatic stone protein in predicting ICU mortality and infection severity in adult patients with infection: a systematic review and individual patient level meta-analysis. Infection 2023; 51:1797-1807. [PMID: 37707744 PMCID: PMC10665254 DOI: 10.1007/s15010-023-02093-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Several studies suggested pancreatic stone protein (PSP) as a promising biomarker to predict mortality among patients with severe infection. The objective of the study was to evaluate the performance of PSP in predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality and infection severity among critically ill adults admitted to the hospital for infection. METHODS A systematic search across Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and MEDLINE databases (1966 to February 2022) for studies on PSP published in English using 'pancreatic stone protein', 'PSP', 'regenerative protein', 'lithostatin' combined with 'infection' and 'sepsis' found 46 records. The search was restricted to the five trials that measured PSP using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technique (ELISA). We used Bayesian hierarchical regression models for pooled estimates and to predict mortality or disease severity using PSP, C-Reactive Protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) as main predictor. We used statistical discriminative measures, such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and classification plots. RESULTS Among the 678 patients included, the pooled ICU mortality was 17.8% (95% prediction interval 4.1% to 54.6%) with a between-study heterogeneity (I-squared 87%). PSP was strongly associated with ICU mortality (OR = 2.7, 95% credible interval (CrI) [1.3-6.0] per one standard deviation increase; age, gender and sepsis severity adjusted OR = 1.5, 95% CrI [0.98-2.8]). The AUC was 0.69 for PSP 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.64-0.74], 0.61 [0.56-0.66] for PCT and 0.52 [0.47-0.57] for CRP. The sensitivity was 0.96, 0.52, 0.30 for risk thresholds 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3; respective false positive rate values were 0.84, 0.25, 0.10. CONCLUSIONS We found that PSP showed a very good discriminative ability for both investigated study endpoints ICU mortality and infection severity; better in comparison to CRP, similar to PCT. Combinations of biomarkers did not improve their predictive ability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick Zuercher
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, INO E-104, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, CH-3010, Bern, Switzerland
| | - André Moser
- CTU Bern, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Martin J Llewelyn
- University Hospitals Sussex NHS Foundation Trust, Brighton BN2 5BE UK and Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Falmer, BN1 9PS, UK
| | - Rolf Graf
- Department of Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, Universitätsspital Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Theresia Reding
- Department of Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, Universitätsspital Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Philippe Eggimann
- Department of Locomotor Apparatus, Lausanne University Hospital (CHUV) and University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Yok-Ai Que
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, INO E-104, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, CH-3010, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Josef Prazak
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, INO E-104, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, CH-3010, Bern, Switzerland.
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Hoogland J, Takada T, van Smeden M, Rovers MM, de Sutter AI, Merenstein D, Kaiser L, Liira H, Little P, Bucher HC, Moons KGM, Reitsma JB, Venekamp RP. Prognosis and prediction of antibiotic benefit in adults with clinically diagnosed acute rhinosinusitis: an individual participant data meta-analysis. Diagn Progn Res 2023; 7:16. [PMID: 37667327 PMCID: PMC10478354 DOI: 10.1186/s41512-023-00154-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2023] [Accepted: 07/20/2023] [Indexed: 09/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A previous individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) of antibiotics for adults with clinically diagnosed acute rhinosinusitis (ARS) showed a marginal overall effect of antibiotics, but was unable to identify patients that are most likely to benefit from antibiotics when applying conventional (i.e. univariable or one-variable-at-a-time) subgroup analysis. We updated the systematic review and investigated whether multivariable prediction of patient-level prognosis and antibiotic treatment effect may lead to more tailored treatment assignment in adults presenting to primary care with ARS. METHODS An IPD-MA of nine double-blind placebo-controlled trials of antibiotic treatment (n=2539) was conducted, with the probability of being cured at 8-15 days as the primary outcome. A logistic mixed effects model was developed to predict the probability of being cured based on demographic characteristics, signs and symptoms, and antibiotic treatment assignment. Predictive performance was quantified based on internal-external cross-validation in terms of calibration and discrimination performance, overall model fit, and the accuracy of individual predictions. RESULTS Results indicate that the prognosis with respect to risk of cure could not be reliably predicted (c-statistic 0.58 and Brier score 0.24). Similarly, patient-level treatment effect predictions did not reliably distinguish between those that did and did not benefit from antibiotics (c-for-benefit 0.50). CONCLUSIONS In conclusion, multivariable prediction based on patient demographics and common signs and symptoms did not reliably predict the patient-level probability of cure and antibiotic effect in this IPD-MA. Therefore, these characteristics cannot be expected to reliably distinguish those that do and do not benefit from antibiotics in adults presenting to primary care with ARS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeroen Hoogland
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centres, Amsterdam University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Toshihiko Takada
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Department of General Medicine, Shirakawa Satellite for Teaching And Research (STAR), Fukushima Medical University, Fukushima, Japan
| | - Maarten van Smeden
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Maroeska M Rovers
- Radboud Institute for Health Sciences (RIHS), Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - An I de Sutter
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Daniel Merenstein
- Department of Family Medicine, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Laurent Kaiser
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University Hospital Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Helena Liira
- Department of General Practice, School of Primary, Aboriginal and Rural Health Care, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
- Department of General Practice and Primary Care, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Paul Little
- Primary Care & Population Sciences Unit, Aldermoor Health Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Heiner C Bucher
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Clinical Research, University Hospital Basel and University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Karel G M Moons
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Johannes B Reitsma
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Roderick P Venekamp
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Candel BGJ, Nissen SK, Nickel CH, Raven W, Thijssen W, Gaakeer MI, Lassen AT, Brabrand M, Steyerberg EW, de Jonge E, de Groot B. Development and External Validation of the International Early Warning Score for Improved Age- and Sex-Adjusted In-Hospital Mortality Prediction in the Emergency Department. Crit Care Med 2023; 51:881-891. [PMID: 36951452 PMCID: PMC10262984 DOI: 10.1097/ccm.0000000000005842] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/24/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Early Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in development and validation and have poor predictive performance in older patients. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an International Early Warning Score (IEWS) based on a recalibrated National Early warning Score (NEWS) model including age and sex and evaluate its performance independently at arrival to the ED in three age categories (18-65, 66-80, > 80 yr). DESIGN International multicenter cohort study. SETTING Data was used from three Dutch EDs. External validation was performed in two EDs in Denmark. PATIENTS All consecutive ED patients greater than or equal to 18 years in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) with at least two registered vital signs were included, resulting in 95,553 patients. For external validation, 14,809 patients were included from a Danish Multicenter Cohort (DMC). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Model performance to predict in-hospital mortality was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curves and summary statistics, reclassification, and clinical usefulness by decision curve analysis. In-hospital mortality rate was 2.4% ( n = 2,314) in the NEED and 2.5% ( n = 365) in the DMC. Overall, the IEWS performed significantly better than NEWS with an area under the receiving operating characteristic of 0.89 (95% CIs, 0.89-0.90) versus 0.82 (0.82-0.83) in the NEED and 0.87 (0.85-0.88) versus 0.82 (0.80-0.84) at external validation. Calibration for NEWS predictions underestimated risk in older patients and overestimated risk in the youngest, while calibration improved for IEWS with a substantial reclassification of patients from low to high risk and a standardized net benefit of 5-15% in the relevant risk range for all age categories. CONCLUSIONS The IEWS substantially improves in-hospital mortality prediction for all ED patients greater than or equal to18 years.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bart Gerard Jan Candel
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Máxima Medical Center, Veldhoven, The Netherlands
| | - Søren Kabell Nissen
- Institute of Regional Health Research, Center South-West Jutland, University of Southern Denmark, Esbjerg, Denmark
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | - Christian H Nickel
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Wouter Raven
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Wendy Thijssen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Catharina Hospital Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
| | - Menno I Gaakeer
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Admiraal de Ruyter Hospital, Goes, The Netherlands
| | | | - Mikkel Brabrand
- Institute of Regional Health Research, Center South-West Jutland, University of Southern Denmark, Esbjerg, Denmark
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Hospital of South-West Jutland, Esbjerg, Denmark
| | - Ewout W Steyerberg
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Evert de Jonge
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Bas de Groot
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
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10
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Schinkel M, Bennis FC, Boerman AW, Wiersinga WJ, Nanayakkara PWB. Embracing cohort heterogeneity in clinical machine learning development: a step toward generalizable models. Sci Rep 2023; 13:8363. [PMID: 37225751 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-35557-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2022] [Accepted: 05/20/2023] [Indexed: 05/26/2023] Open
Abstract
This study is a simple illustration of the benefit of averaging over cohorts, rather than developing a prediction model from a single cohort. We show that models trained on data from multiple cohorts can perform significantly better in new settings than models based on the same amount of training data but from just a single cohort. Although this concept seems simple and obvious, no current prediction model development guidelines recommend such an approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michiel Schinkel
- Center for Experimental and Molecular Medicine (CEMM), Location Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Frank C Bennis
- Quantitative Data Analytics Group, Department of Computer Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Anneroos W Boerman
- Department of Internal Medicine, Section General Internal Medicine, Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - W Joost Wiersinga
- Department of Internal Medicine, Amsterdam UMC University of Amsterdam, Meibergdreef 9, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Prabath W B Nanayakkara
- Department of Internal Medicine, Section General Internal Medicine, Amsterdam UMC Location Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1117, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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11
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de Hond AAH, Shah VB, Kant IMJ, Van Calster B, Steyerberg EW, Hernandez-Boussard T. Perspectives on validation of clinical predictive algorithms. NPJ Digit Med 2023; 6:86. [PMID: 37149704 PMCID: PMC10163568 DOI: 10.1038/s41746-023-00832-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2023] [Indexed: 05/08/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Anne A H de Hond
- Clinical AI Implementation and Research Lab, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands.
- Department of Medicine (Biomedical Informatics), Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands.
| | - Vaibhavi B Shah
- Department of Medicine (Biomedical Informatics), Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Ilse M J Kant
- Department of Digital Health, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Ben Van Calster
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands
- Department of Development & Regeneration, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Ewout W Steyerberg
- Clinical AI Implementation and Research Lab, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Tina Hernandez-Boussard
- Department of Medicine (Biomedical Informatics), Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Epidemiology & Population Health (by courtesy), Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
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12
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Efthimiou O, Hoogland J, Debray TP, Seo M, Furukawa TA, Egger M, White IR. Measuring the performance of prediction models to personalize treatment choice. Stat Med 2023; 42:1188-1206. [PMID: 36700492 PMCID: PMC7615726 DOI: 10.1002/sim.9665] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2022] [Revised: 11/07/2022] [Accepted: 12/31/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
When data are available from individual patients receiving either a treatment or a control intervention in a randomized trial, various statistical and machine learning methods can be used to develop models for predicting future outcomes under the two conditions, and thus to predict treatment effect at the patient level. These predictions can subsequently guide personalized treatment choices. Although several methods for validating prediction models are available, little attention has been given to measuring the performance of predictions of personalized treatment effect. In this article, we propose a range of measures that can be used to this end. We start by defining two dimensions of model accuracy for treatment effects, for a single outcome: discrimination for benefit and calibration for benefit. We then amalgamate these two dimensions into an additional concept, decision accuracy, which quantifies the model's ability to identify patients for whom the benefit from treatment exceeds a given threshold. Subsequently, we propose a series of performance measures related to these dimensions and discuss estimating procedures, focusing on randomized data. Our methods are applicable for continuous or binary outcomes, for any type of prediction model, as long as it uses baseline covariates to predict outcomes under treatment and control. We illustrate all methods using two simulated datasets and a real dataset from a trial in depression. We implement all methods in the R package predieval. Results suggest that the proposed measures can be useful in evaluating and comparing the performance of competing models in predicting individualized treatment effect.
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Affiliation(s)
- Orestis Efthimiou
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of BernBernSwitzerland
- Institute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of BernBernSwitzerland
- Department of PsychiatryUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Jeroen Hoogland
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary CareUniversity Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
- Department of Epidemiology and Data ScienceAmsterdam University Medical CentersAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Thomas P.A. Debray
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary CareUniversity Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
- Smart Data Analysis and Statistics B.V.UtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - Michael Seo
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of BernBernSwitzerland
- Graduate School for Health SciencesUniversity of BernBernSwitzerland
| | - Toshiaki A. Furukawa
- Departments of Health Promotion and Human Behavior and of Clinical EpidemiologyKyoto University Graduate School of Medicine/School of Public HealthKyotoJapan
| | - Matthias Egger
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of BernBernSwitzerland
- Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research, Faculty of Health SciencesUniversity of Cape TownCape TownSouth Africa
- Population Health Sciences, Bristol Medical SchoolUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - Ian R. White
- MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCLUniversity College LondonLondonUK
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13
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Van Calster B, Steyerberg EW, Wynants L, van Smeden M. There is no such thing as a validated prediction model. BMC Med 2023; 21:70. [PMID: 36829188 PMCID: PMC9951847 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-023-02779-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 49] [Impact Index Per Article: 49.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Accepted: 02/10/2023] [Indexed: 02/26/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Clinical prediction models should be validated before implementation in clinical practice. But is favorable performance at internal validation or one external validation sufficient to claim that a prediction model works well in the intended clinical context? MAIN BODY We argue to the contrary because (1) patient populations vary, (2) measurement procedures vary, and (3) populations and measurements change over time. Hence, we have to expect heterogeneity in model performance between locations and settings, and across time. It follows that prediction models are never truly validated. This does not imply that validation is not important. Rather, the current focus on developing new models should shift to a focus on more extensive, well-conducted, and well-reported validation studies of promising models. CONCLUSION Principled validation strategies are needed to understand and quantify heterogeneity, monitor performance over time, and update prediction models when appropriate. Such strategies will help to ensure that prediction models stay up-to-date and safe to support clinical decision-making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ben Van Calster
- Department of Development and Regeneration, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- EPI-Center, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands
| | | | - Laure Wynants
- Department of Development and Regeneration, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- EPI-Center, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- Department of Epidemiology, CAPHRI Care and Public Health Research Institute, Maastricht University, Maastricht, Netherlands
| | - Maarten van Smeden
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, 3584 CG, Utrecht, Netherlands.
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14
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Debray TPA, Collins GS, Riley RD, Snell KIE, Van Calster B, Reitsma JB, Moons KGM. Transparent reporting of multivariable prediction models developed or validated using clustered data (TRIPOD-Cluster): explanation and elaboration. BMJ 2023; 380:e071058. [PMID: 36750236 PMCID: PMC9903176 DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2022-071058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/07/2022] [Indexed: 02/09/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Thomas P A Debray
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Gary S Collins
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, Botnar Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- National Institute for Health and Care Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK
| | - Richard D Riley
- Centre for Prognosis Research, School of Medicine, Keele University, Keele, UK
| | - Kym I E Snell
- Centre for Prognosis Research, School of Medicine, Keele University, Keele, UK
| | - Ben Van Calster
- Department of Development and Regeneration, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- EPI-centre, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands
| | - Johannes B Reitsma
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Karel G M Moons
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
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15
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McLernon DJ, Giardiello D, Van Calster B, Wynants L, van Geloven N, van Smeden M, Therneau T, Steyerberg EW. Assessing Performance and Clinical Usefulness in Prediction Models With Survival Outcomes: Practical Guidance for Cox Proportional Hazards Models. Ann Intern Med 2023; 176:105-114. [PMID: 36571841 DOI: 10.7326/m22-0844] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 32.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Risk prediction models need thorough validation to assess their performance. Validation of models for survival outcomes poses challenges due to the censoring of observations and the varying time horizon at which predictions can be made. This article describes measures to evaluate predictions and the potential improvement in decision making from survival models based on Cox proportional hazards regression. As a motivating case study, the authors consider the prediction of the composite outcome of recurrence or death (the "event") in patients with breast cancer after surgery. They developed a simple Cox regression model with 3 predictors, as in the Nottingham Prognostic Index, in 2982 women (1275 events over 5 years of follow-up) and externally validated this model in 686 women (285 events over 5 years). Improvement in performance was assessed after the addition of progesterone receptor as a prognostic biomarker. The model predictions can be evaluated across the full range of observed follow-up times or for the event occurring by the end of a fixed time horizon of interest. The authors first discuss recommended statistical measures that evaluate model performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, or overall performance. Further, they evaluate the potential clinical utility of the model to support clinical decision making according to a net benefit measure. They provide SAS and R code to illustrate internal and external validation. The authors recommend the proposed set of performance measures for transparent reporting of the validity of predictions from survival models.
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Affiliation(s)
- David J McLernon
- Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom (D.J.M.)
| | - Daniele Giardiello
- Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands, and Institute of Biomedicine, Eurac Research, Affiliated Institute of the University of Lübeck, Bolzano, Italy (D.G.)
| | - Ben Van Calster
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands, and Department of Development and Regeneration, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium (B.V.)
| | - Laure Wynants
- School for Public Health and Primary Care, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands (L.W.)
| | - Nan van Geloven
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands (N.V., E.W.S.)
| | - Maarten van Smeden
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands (M.V.)
| | - Terry Therneau
- Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota (T.T.)
| | - Ewout W Steyerberg
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands (N.V., E.W.S.)
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16
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Pfeiffer RM, Chen Y, Gail MH, Ankerst DP. Accommodating population differences when validating risk prediction models. Stat Med 2022; 41:4756-4780. [PMID: 36224712 PMCID: PMC10510530 DOI: 10.1002/sim.9447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2021] [Revised: 01/19/2022] [Accepted: 05/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Abstract
Validation of risk prediction models in independent data provides a more rigorous assessment of model performance than internal assessment, for example, done by cross-validation in the data used for model development. However, several differences between the populations that gave rise to the training and the validation data can lead to seemingly poor performance of a risk model. In this paper we formalize the notions of "similarity" or "relatedness" of the training and validation data, and define reproducibility and transportability. We address the impact of different distributions of model predictors and differences in verifying the disease status or outcome on measures of calibration, accuracy and discrimination of a model. When individual level information from both the training and validation data sets is available, we propose and study weighted versions of the validation metrics that adjust for differences in the risk factor distributions and in outcome verification between the training and validation data to provide a more comprehensive assessment of model performance. We provide conditions on the risk model and the populations that gave rise to the training and validation data that ensure a model's reproducibility or transportability, and show how to check these conditions using weighted and unweighted performance measures. We illustrate the method by developing and validating a model that predicts the risk of developing prostate cancer using data from two large prostate cancer screening trials.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Yiyao Chen
- Technical University of Munich, Garching, Germany
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17
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Clift AK, Hippisley-Cox J, Dodwell D, Lord S, Brady M, Petrou S, Collins GS. Development and validation of clinical prediction models for breast cancer incidence and mortality: a protocol for a dual cohort study. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e050828. [PMID: 35351695 PMCID: PMC8961149 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050828] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2021] [Accepted: 01/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death in women worldwide. Risk prediction models may be useful to guide risk-reducing interventions (such as pharmacological agents) in women at increased risk or inform screening strategies for early detection methods such as screening. METHODS AND ANALYSIS The study will use data for women aged 20-90 years between 2000 and 2020 from QResearch linked at the individual level to hospital episodes, cancer registry and death registry data. It will evaluate a set of modelling approaches to predict the risk of developing breast cancer within the next 10 years, the 'combined' risk of developing a breast cancer and then dying from it within 10 years, and the risk of breast cancer mortality within 10 years of diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards, competing risks, random survival forest, deep learning and XGBoost models will be explored. Models will be developed on the entire dataset, with 'apparent' performance reported, and internal-external cross-validation used to assess performance and geographical and temporal transportability (two 10-year time periods). Random effects meta-analysis will pool discrimination and calibration metric estimates from individual geographical units obtained from internal-external cross-validation. We will then externally validate the models in an independent dataset. Evaluation of performance heterogeneity will be conducted throughout, such as exploring performance across ethnic groups. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION Ethics approval was granted by the QResearch scientific committee (reference number REC 18/EM/0400: OX129). The results will be written up for submission to peer-reviewed journals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ashley Kieran Clift
- Cancer Research UK Oxford Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Julia Hippisley-Cox
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - David Dodwell
- Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Simon Lord
- Department of Oncology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Mike Brady
- Department of Oncology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Stavros Petrou
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Gary S Collins
- Centre for Statistics in Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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18
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Tamási B, Crowther M, Puhan MA, Steyerberg EW, Hothorn T. Individual participant data meta-analysis with mixed-effects transformation models. Biostatistics 2021; 23:1083-1098. [PMID: 34969073 PMCID: PMC9566326 DOI: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxab045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2021] [Revised: 11/03/2021] [Accepted: 11/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
One-stage meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD) poses several statistical and computational challenges. For time-to-event outcomes, the approach requires the estimation of complicated nonlinear mixed-effects models that are flexible enough to realistically capture the most important characteristics of the IPD. We present a model class that incorporates general normally distributed random effects into linear transformation models. We discuss extensions to model between-study heterogeneity in baseline risks and covariate effects and also relax the assumption of proportional hazards. Within the proposed framework, data with arbitrary random censoring patterns can be handled. The accompanying \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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}{}$\textsf{R}$\end{document} package tramME utilizes the Laplace approximation and automatic differentiation to perform efficient maximum likelihood estimation and inference in mixed-effects transformation models. We compare several variants of our model to predict the survival of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using a large data set of prognostic studies. Finally, a simulation study is presented that verifies the correctness of the implementation and highlights its efficiency compared to an alternative approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bálint Tamási
- Institut für Epidemiologie, Biostatistik und Prävention, Departement Biostatistik, Universität Zürich, Hirschengraben 84, CH-8001 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Michael Crowther
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Milo Alan Puhan
- Institut für Epidemiologie, Biostatistik und Prävention, Departement Epidemiologie, Universität Zürich, Hirschengraben 84, CH-8001 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Ewout W Steyerberg
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Albinusdreef 2, 2333 ZA Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Torsten Hothorn
- Institut für Epidemiologie, Biostatistik und Prävention, Departement Biostatistik, Universität Zürich, Hirschengraben 84, CH-8001 Zürich, Switzerland
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19
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Zhang XQ, Li L. A meta-analysis of XRCC1 single nucleotide polymorphism and susceptibility to gynecological malignancies. Medicine (Baltimore) 2021; 100:e28030. [PMID: 34918657 PMCID: PMC8677953 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000028030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2020] [Accepted: 11/11/2021] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Gynecological malignant tumor is a serious threat to women's health, cervical cancer, endometrial cancer and ovarian cancer are the most common. The eponymous protein encoded by the XRCC1 (X-ray repair cross complementation 1) gene is an important functional protein in the process of single-stranded DNA damage. Non-synonymous mutations of XRCC1 gene cause amino acid sequence changes that affect protein function and DNA repair ability, and may affect the interaction with other DNA repair proteins, leading to increased risk of tumor development. Many studies have assessed the association between XRCC1 gene polymorphism and the risk of cancer in the female reproductive system, but the results have been inconclusive. In this study, the relationship between XRCC1 Arg399Gln, Arg194Trp, Arg280His single nucleotide polymorphisms and susceptibility to gynecological malignancies was further explored by meta-analysis. METHODS English database: Pubmed, Medline, Excerpta Medica Database, Cochrance, etc; Chinese database: China national knowledge infrastructure, Wanfang Database, etc. STATA14 was used for statistical analysis, such as odd ratio (OR) value, subgroup analysis, heterogeneity test, sensitivity analysis, and publication bias. RESULTS In gynecologic cancers, the allele frequency difference of Arg399Gln case control group was statistically significant (GvsA: P = .007). There was no significant difference in allele frequency in the Arg194Trp and Arg280His case control groups (P = .065, 0.198). In different gene models, Arg399Gln was significantly correlated with gynecologic cancers susceptibility (GGvs AA: OR 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85 0.98); Arg194Trp was significantly correlated with gynecologic cancers susceptibility (CCvs TT: OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.88,1.00; CCvs CT: OR 0.97; 95% CI 0.90, 1.05); Arg280His was significantly correlated with gynecologic cancers susceptibility (GGvs AA: OR 0.98; 95% CI 0.94, 1.02; GGvs GA: OR 1.00;95% CI 0.97, 1.04). In the subgroup analysis, Arg399Gln and Arg194Trp were significantly correlated with gynecologic cancers susceptibility in the Asian race (P = .000, 0.049). In the analysis of different cancer subgroups, Arg399Gln and cervical cancer susceptibility were statistically significant (P = .039). Arg194Trp and endometrial cancer susceptibility were statistically significant (P = .033, 0.001). CONCLUSIONS XRCC1 Arg399Gln, Arg194Trp, Arg280His single nucleotide polymorphisms were associated with gynecologic cancer susceptibility. Arg399Gln genotype was statistically significant in relation to cervical cancer susceptibility. Arg194Trp genotype was statistically significant in relation to endometrial cancer susceptibility.
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20
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Darssan D, Mishra GD, Greenwood DC, Sandin S, Brunner EJ, Crawford SL, El Khoudary SR, Brooks MM, Gold EB, Simonsen MK, Chung HF, Weiderpass E, Dobson AJ. Meta-analysis for individual participant data with a continuous exposure: A case study. J Clin Epidemiol 2021; 140:79-92. [PMID: 34487835 PMCID: PMC9263279 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.08.033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2021] [Revised: 08/23/2021] [Accepted: 08/30/2021] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Methods for meta-analysis of studies with individual participant data and continuous exposure variables are well described in the statistical literature but are not widely used in clinical and epidemiological research. The purpose of this case study is to make the methods more accessible. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING A two-stage process is demonstrated. Response curves are estimated separately for each study using fractional polynomials. The study-specific curves are then averaged pointwise over all studies at each value of the exposure. The averaging can be implemented using fixed effects or random effects methods. RESULTS The methodology is illustrated using samples of real data with continuous outcome and exposure data and several covariates. The sample data set, segments of Stata and R code, and outputs are provided to enable replication of the results. CONCLUSION These methods and tools can be adapted to other situations, including for time-to-event or categorical outcomes, different ways of modelling exposure-outcome curves, and different strategies for covariate adjustment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Darsy Darssan
- University of Queensland, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Queensland, Australia
| | - Gita D Mishra
- University of Queensland, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Sven Sandin
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Psychiatry, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, USA; Seaver Autism Center for Research and Treatment at Mount Sinai, New York, USA
| | - Eric J Brunner
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Sybil L Crawford
- Graduate School of Nursing, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA
| | - Samar R El Khoudary
- Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Maria Mori Brooks
- Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Ellen B Gold
- Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | | | - Hsin-Fang Chung
- University of Queensland, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Queensland, Australia
| | - Elisabete Weiderpass
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organisation, Lyon, France
| | - Annette J Dobson
- University of Queensland, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Queensland, Australia.
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21
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Sinha S, Dimagli A, Dixon L, Gaudino M, Caputo M, Vohra HA, Angelini G, Benedetto U. Systematic review and meta-analysis of mortality risk prediction models in adult cardiac surgery. Interact Cardiovasc Thorac Surg 2021; 33:673-686. [PMID: 34041539 PMCID: PMC8557799 DOI: 10.1093/icvts/ivab151] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2020] [Revised: 03/24/2021] [Accepted: 04/14/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The most used mortality risk prediction models in cardiac surgery are the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (ES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score. There is no agreement on which score should be considered more accurate nor which score should be utilized in each population subgroup. We sought to provide a thorough quantitative assessment of these 2 models. METHODS We performed a systematic literature review and captured information on discrimination, as quantified by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and calibration, as quantified by the ratio of observed-to-expected mortality (O:E). We performed random effects meta-analysis of the performance of the individual models as well as pairwise comparisons and subgroup analysis by procedure type, time and continent. RESULTS The ES2 {AUC 0.783 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.765-0.800]; O:E 1.102 (95% CI 0.943-1.289)} and STS [AUC 0.757 (95% CI 0.727-0.785); O:E 1.111 (95% CI 0.853-1.447)] showed good overall discrimination and calibration. There was no significant difference in the discrimination of the 2 models (difference in AUC -0.016; 95% CI -0.034 to -0.002; P = 0.09). However, the calibration of ES2 showed significant geographical variations (P < 0.001) and a trend towards miscalibration with time (P=0.057). This was not seen with STS. CONCLUSIONS ES2 and STS are reliable predictors of short-term mortality following adult cardiac surgery in the populations from which they were derived. STS may have broader applications when comparing outcomes across continents as compared to ES2. REGISTRATION Prospero (https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/) CRD42020220983.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shubhra Sinha
- Bristol Heart Institute, Translational Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Arnaldo Dimagli
- Bristol Heart Institute, Translational Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Lauren Dixon
- Bristol Heart Institute, Translational Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Mario Gaudino
- Weill Cornell Medical College, Cornell University, New York, USA
| | - Massimo Caputo
- Bristol Heart Institute, Translational Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Hunaid A Vohra
- Bristol Heart Institute, Translational Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Gianni Angelini
- Bristol Heart Institute, Translational Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Umberto Benedetto
- Bristol Heart Institute, Translational Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
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22
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Borensztajn DM, Hagedoorn NN, Carrol ED, von Both U, Dewez JE, Emonts M, van der Flier M, de Groot R, Herberg J, Kohlmaier B, Lim E, Maconochie IK, Martinon-Torres F, Nieboer D, Nijman RG, Oostenbrink R, Pokorn M, Calle IR, Strle F, Tsolia M, Vermont CL, Yeung S, Zavadska D, Zenz W, Levin M, Moll HA. A NICE combination for predicting hospitalisation at the Emergency Department: a European multicentre observational study of febrile children. LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-EUROPE 2021; 8:100173. [PMID: 34557857 PMCID: PMC8454797 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100173] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
Background Prolonged Emergency Department (ED) stay causes crowding and negatively impacts quality of care. We developed and validated a prediction model for early identification of febrile children with a high risk of hospitalisation in order to improve ED flow. Methods The MOFICHE study prospectively collected data on febrile children (0-18 years) presenting to 12 European EDs. A prediction models was constructed using multivariable logistic regression and included patient characteristics available at triage. We determined the discriminative values of the model by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Findings Of 38,424 paediatric encounters, 9,735 children were admitted to the ward and 157 to the PICU. The prediction model, combining patient characteristics and NICE alarming, yielded an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI 0.83-0.84).The model performed well for a rule-in threshold of 75% (specificity 99.0% (95%CI 98.9-99.1%, positive likelihood ratio 15.1 (95%CI 13.4-17.1), positive predictive value 0.84 (95%CI 0.82-0.86)) and a rule-out threshold of 7.5% (sensitivity 95.4% (95%CI 95.0-95.8), negative likelihood ratio 0.15 (95%CI 0.14-0.16), negative predictive value 0..95 (95%CI 0.95-9.96)). Validation in a separate dataset showed an excellent AUC of 0.91 (95%CI 0.90- 0.93). The model performed well for identifying children needing PICU admission (AUC 0.95, 95%CI 0.93-0.97). A digital calculator was developed to facilitate clinical use. Interpretation Patient characteristics and NICE alarming signs available at triage can be used to identify febrile children at high risk for hospitalisation and can be used to improve ED flow. Funding European Union, NIHR, NHS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dorine M Borensztajn
- Erasmus MC Sophia Children's Hospital, Department of General Paediatrics, P.O. Box 2060, 3000 CB, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Nienke N Hagedoorn
- Erasmus MC Sophia Children's Hospital, Department of General Paediatrics, P.O. Box 2060, 3000 CB, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Enitan D Carrol
- University of Liverpool, Institute of Infection and Global Health, Liverpool, United Kingdom.,Alder Hey Children's NHS Foundation Trust, Liverpool, United Kingdom.,Liverpool Health Partners, First Floor, Science Park, Mount Pleasant, Liverpool L3 5TF
| | - Ulrich von Both
- Division of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Dr. von Hauner Children's Hospital, university hospital, Ludwig, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU), München, Germany
| | - Juan Emmanuel Dewez
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Tropical and Infectious Disease, London, United Kingdom
| | - Marieke Emonts
- Great North Children's Hospital, Paediatric Immunology, Infectious Diseases & Allergy, Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom.,Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.,NIHR Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre based at Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Trust and Newcastle University, Westgate Rd, Newcastle upon Tyne NE4 5PL, United Kingdom.,Translational and Clinical Research Institute, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
| | - Michiel van der Flier
- Paediatric Infectious Diseases and Immunology, Wilhelmina Children's Hospital, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands.,Paediatric Infectious Diseases and Immunology, Amalia Children's Hospital, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, the Netherlands.,Section Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Laboratory of Medical Immunology, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Radboud Institute for Molecular Sciences, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Ronald de Groot
- Stichting Katholieke Universiteit, Radboudumc Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | - Jethro Herberg
- Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, Section of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, London, United Kingdom.,Department of paediatric Accident and Emergency, St Mary's hospital - Imperial College NHS Healthcare Trust
| | - Benno Kohlmaier
- Medical University of Graz, Department of General Paediatrics, Graz, Austria
| | - Emma Lim
- Great North Children's Hospital, Paediatric Immunology, Infectious Diseases & Allergy, Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom.,Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Ian K Maconochie
- Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, Section of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, London, United Kingdom.,Department of paediatric Accident and Emergency, St Mary's hospital - Imperial College NHS Healthcare Trust
| | - Federico Martinon-Torres
- Hospital Clínico Universitario de Santiago de Compostela, Genetics, Vaccines, Infections and Paediatrics Research group (GENVIP), Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Daan Nieboer
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Centre Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ruud G Nijman
- Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, Section of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, London, United Kingdom.,Department of paediatric Accident and Emergency, St Mary's hospital - Imperial College NHS Healthcare Trust
| | - Rianne Oostenbrink
- Erasmus MC Sophia Children's Hospital, Department of General Paediatrics, P.O. Box 2060, 3000 CB, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Marko Pokorn
- University Medical Centre Ljubljana, Univerzitetni Klinični Centre, Department of Infectious Diseases, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Irene Rivero Calle
- Hospital Clínico Universitario de Santiago de Compostela, Genetics, Vaccines, Infections and Paediatrics Research group (GENVIP), Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Franc Strle
- University Medical Centre Ljubljana, Univerzitetni Klinični Centre, Department of Infectious Diseases, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Maria Tsolia
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Second Department of Paediatrics, P. and A. Kyriakou Children's Hospital, Athens, Greece
| | - Clementien L Vermont
- Erasmus MC Sophia Children's Hospital, Department of Paediatric infectious diseases & immunology, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Shunmay Yeung
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Tropical and Infectious Disease, London, United Kingdom
| | - Dace Zavadska
- Rīgas Stradiņa Universitāte, Department of Paediatrics; Children clinical university hospital, Riga, Latvia
| | - Werner Zenz
- Medical University of Graz, Department of General Paediatrics, Graz, Austria
| | - Michael Levin
- Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, Section of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Henriette A Moll
- Erasmus MC Sophia Children's Hospital, Department of General Paediatrics, P.O. Box 2060, 3000 CB, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
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23
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Retel Helmrich IR, Lingsma HF, Turgeon AF, Yamal JM, Steyerberg EW. Prognostic Research in Traumatic Brain Injury: Markers, Modeling, and Methodological Principles. J Neurotrauma 2021; 38:2502-2513. [PMID: 32316847 PMCID: PMC8403181 DOI: 10.1089/neu.2019.6708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Prognostic assessment in traumatic brain injury (TBI) is embedded deeply in clinical care. Considering the limitations of current prognostic indicators, there is increasing interest in understanding the role of new biomarkers, and in finding other prognostic indicators of long-term outcomes following TBI. New prognostic indicators may result in the development of more accurate prediction models that could be useful for both risk stratification and clinical decision making. We aimed to review methodological issues and provide tentative guidelines for prognostic research in TBI. Prognostic factor research focuses on the role of a specific patient or disease-related characteristic in relation to outcome. Typically, univariable relations of the prognostic factor are studied, followed by analyses adjusting for other variables related to the outcome. Following existing guidelines, we emphasize the importance of transparent reporting of patient and specimen characteristics, study design, clinical end-points, and statistical analysis. Prognostic model research considers combinations of predictors, with challenges for model specification, estimation, evaluation, validation, and presentation. We highlight modern approaches and opportunities related to missing values, exploration of non-linear effects, and assessing between-study heterogeneity. Prognostic research in TBI can be improved if key methodological principles are adhered to and when research is performed in collaboration among multiple centers to ensure generalizability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isabel R.A. Retel Helmrich
- Department of Public Health, Center for Medical Decision Making, Erasmus MC – University Medical Center Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Hester F. Lingsma
- Department of Public Health, Center for Medical Decision Making, Erasmus MC – University Medical Center Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Alexis F. Turgeon
- CHU de Québec – Université Laval Research Centre, Population Health and Optimal Health Practices Research Unit, Trauma – Emergency – Critical Care Medicine, Division of Critical Care Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada
- Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Division of Critical Care Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada
| | - Jose-Miguel Yamal
- Department of Biostatistics and Data Science, University of Texas School of Public Health, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Ewout W. Steyerberg
- Department of Public Health, Center for Medical Decision Making, Erasmus MC – University Medical Center Rotterdam, the Netherlands
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
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24
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Meid AD, Gonzalez-Gonzalez AI, Dinh TS, Blom J, van den Akker M, Elders P, Thiem U, Küllenberg de Gaudry D, Swart KMA, Rudolf H, Bosch-Lenders D, Trampisch HJ, Meerpohl JJ, Gerlach FM, Flaig B, Kom G, Snell KIE, Perera R, Haefeli WE, Glasziou P, Muth C. Predicting hospital admissions from individual patient data (IPD): an applied example to explore key elements driving external validity. BMJ Open 2021; 11:e045572. [PMID: 34348947 PMCID: PMC8340284 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045572] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To explore factors that potentially impact external validation performance while developing and validating a prognostic model for hospital admissions (HAs) in complex older general practice patients. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Using individual participant data from four cluster-randomised trials conducted in the Netherlands and Germany, we used logistic regression to develop a prognostic model to predict all-cause HAs within a 6-month follow-up period. A stratified intercept was used to account for heterogeneity in baseline risk between the studies. The model was validated both internally and by using internal-external cross-validation (IECV). RESULTS Prior HAs, physical components of the health-related quality of life comorbidity index, and medication-related variables were used in the final model. While achieving moderate discriminatory performance, internal bootstrap validation revealed a pronounced risk of overfitting. The results of the IECV, in which calibration was highly variable even after accounting for between-study heterogeneity, agreed with this finding. Heterogeneity was equally reflected in differing baseline risk, predictor effects and absolute risk predictions. CONCLUSIONS Predictor effect heterogeneity and differing baseline risk can explain the limited external performance of HA prediction models. With such drivers known, model adjustments in external validation settings (eg, intercept recalibration, complete updating) can be applied more purposefully. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER PROSPERO id: CRD42018088129.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Daniel Meid
- Department of Clinical Pharmacology & Pharmacoepidemiology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Baden-Württemberg, Germany
| | - Ana Isabel Gonzalez-Gonzalez
- Institute of General Practice, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Hessen, Germany
- Red de Investigación en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC), Madrid, Spain
| | - Truc Sophia Dinh
- Institute of General Practice, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Hessen, Germany
| | - Jeanet Blom
- Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Marjan van den Akker
- Institute of General Practice, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Hessen, Germany
- School of CAPHRI, Department of Family Medicine, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Petra Elders
- Department of General Practice and Elderly Care Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amstedarm Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ulrich Thiem
- Chair of Geriatrics and Gerontology, University Clinic Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Daniela Küllenberg de Gaudry
- Institute for Evidence in Medicine (for Cochrane Germany Foundation), Medical Center-University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Karin M A Swart
- Department of General Practice and Elderly Care Medicine, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amstedarm Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Henrik Rudolf
- Department of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ruhr University Bochum, Bochum, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany
| | - Donna Bosch-Lenders
- School of CAPHRI, Department of Family Medicine, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Hans J Trampisch
- Department of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ruhr University Bochum, Bochum, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany
| | - Joerg J Meerpohl
- Institute for Evidence in Medicine (for Cochrane Germany Foundation), Medical Center-University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Ferdinand M Gerlach
- Institute of General Practice, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Hessen, Germany
| | - Benno Flaig
- Institute of General Practice, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Hessen, Germany
| | | | - Kym I E Snell
- Centre for Prognosis Research, School of Primary Care Research, Community and Social Care, Keele University, Keele, UK
| | - Rafael Perera
- Nuffield Department of Primary Care, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Walter Emil Haefeli
- Department of Clinical Pharmacology & Pharmacoepidemiology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Baden-Württemberg, Germany
| | - Paul Glasziou
- Centre for Research in Evidence-Based Practice, Bond University, Robina, Queensland, Australia
| | - Christiane Muth
- Institute of General Practice, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Hessen, Germany
- Department of General Practice and Family Medicine, Medical Faculty OWL, University of Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany
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25
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Nijman RG, Borensztajn DH, Zachariasse JM, Hajema C, Freitas P, Greber-Platzer S, Smit FJ, Alves CF, van der Lei J, Steyerberg EW, Maconochie IK, Moll HA. A clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department: A prospective multicentre observational study. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0254366. [PMID: 34264983 PMCID: PMC8281990 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254366] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 06/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To develop a clinical prediction model to identify children at risk for revisits with serious illness to the emergency department. METHODS AND FINDINGS A secondary analysis of a prospective multicentre observational study in five European EDs (the TRIAGE study), including consecutive children aged <16 years who were discharged following their initial ED visit ('index' visit), in 2012-2015. Standardised data on patient characteristics, Manchester Triage System urgency classification, vital signs, clinical interventions and procedures were collected. The outcome measure was serious illness defined as hospital admission or PICU admission or death in ED after an unplanned revisit within 7 days of the index visit. Prediction models were developed using multivariable logistic regression using characteristics of the index visit to predict the likelihood of a revisit with a serious illness. The clinical model included day and time of presentation, season, age, gender, presenting problem, triage urgency, and vital signs. An extended model added laboratory investigations, imaging, and intravenous medications. Cross validation between the five sites was performed, and discrimination and calibration were assessed using random effects models. A digital calculator was constructed for clinical implementation. 7,891 children out of 98,561 children had a revisit to the ED (8.0%), of whom 1,026 children (1.0%) returned to the ED with a serious illness. Rates of revisits with serious illness varied between the hospitals (range 0.7-2.2%). The clinical model had a summary Area under the operating curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.74) and summary calibration slope of 0.83 (95% CI 0.67-0.99). 4,433 children (5%) had a risk of > = 3%, which was useful for ruling in a revisit with serious illness, with positive likelihood ratio 4.41 (95% CI 3.87-5.01) and specificity 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.96). 37,546 (39%) had a risk <0.5%, which was useful for ruling out a revisit with serious illness (negative likelihood ratio 0.30 (95% CI 0.25-0.35), sensitivity 0.88 (95% CI 0.86-0.90)). The extended model had an improved summary AUC of 0.71 (95% CI 0.68-0.75) and summary calibration slope of 0.84 (95% CI 0.71-0.97). As study limitations, variables on ethnicity and social deprivation could not be included, and only return visits to the original hospital and not to those of surrounding hospitals were recorded. CONCLUSION We developed a prediction model and a digital calculator which can aid physicians identifying those children at highest and lowest risks for developing a serious illness after initial discharge from the ED, allowing for more targeted safety netting advice and follow-up.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ruud G. Nijman
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Section of Paediatric Infectious Diseases, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Paediatric Emergency Medicine, St Mary’s Hospital–Imperial College NHS Healthcare Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Dorine H. Borensztajn
- Department of General Paediatrics, Erasmus MC-Sophia Children’s Hospital, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Joany M. Zachariasse
- Department of General Paediatrics, Erasmus MC-Sophia Children’s Hospital, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Carine Hajema
- Department of General Paediatrics, Erasmus MC-Sophia Children’s Hospital, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Paulo Freitas
- Intensive Care Unit, Hospital Prof. Dr. Fernando Fonseca, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Susanne Greber-Platzer
- Department of Paediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Frank J. Smit
- Department of Paediatrics, Maasstad Hospital, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Claudio F. Alves
- Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Prof. Dr. Fernando Fonseca, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Johan van der Lei
- Department of Medical Informatics, Erasmus MC- University Medical Centre Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ewout W. Steyerberg
- Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Ian K. Maconochie
- Department of Paediatric Emergency Medicine, St Mary’s Hospital–Imperial College NHS Healthcare Trust, London, United Kingdom
| | - Henriette A. Moll
- Department of General Paediatrics, Erasmus MC-Sophia Children’s Hospital, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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26
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Venema E, Wessler BS, Paulus JK, Salah R, Raman G, Leung LY, Koethe BC, Nelson J, Park JG, van Klaveren D, Steyerberg EW, Kent DM. Large-scale validation of the prediction model risk of bias assessment Tool (PROBAST) using a short form: high risk of bias models show poorer discrimination. J Clin Epidemiol 2021; 138:32-39. [PMID: 34175377 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2021.06.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/15/2021] [Revised: 06/15/2021] [Accepted: 06/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess whether the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) and a shorter version of this tool can identify clinical prediction models (CPMs) that perform poorly at external validation. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We evaluated risk of bias (ROB) on 102 CPMs from the Tufts CPM Registry, comparing PROBAST to a short form consisting of six PROBAST items anticipated to best identify high ROB. We then applied the short form to all CPMs in the Registry with at least 1 validation (n=556) and assessed the change in discrimination (dAUC) in external validation cohorts (n=1,147). RESULTS PROBAST classified 98/102 CPMS as high ROB. The short form identified 96 of these 98 as high ROB (98% sensitivity), with perfect specificity. In the full CPM registry, 527 of 556 CPMs (95%) were classified as high ROB, 20 (3.6%) low ROB, and 9 (1.6%) unclear ROB. Only one model with unclear ROB was reclassified to high ROB after full PROBAST assessment of all low and unclear ROB models. Median change in discrimination was significantly smaller in low ROB models (dAUC -0.9%, IQR -6.2-4.2%) compared to high ROB models (dAUC -11.7%, IQR -33.3-2.6%; P<0.001). CONCLUSION High ROB is pervasive among published CPMs. It is associated with poor discriminative performance at validation, supporting the application of PROBAST or a shorter version in CPM reviews.
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Affiliation(s)
- Esmee Venema
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Neurology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Benjamin S Wessler
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA; Valve Center, Division of Cardiology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jessica K Paulus
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Rehab Salah
- Ministry of Health and Population Hospitals, Benha Faculty of Medicine, Benha, Egypt
| | - Gowri Raman
- Center for Clinical Evidence Synthesis, Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Lester Y Leung
- Comprehensive Stroke Center, Division of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases, Department of Neurology, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Benjamin C Koethe
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jason Nelson
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jinny G Park
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - David van Klaveren
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ewout W Steyerberg
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - David M Kent
- Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Center, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA.
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Storebø OJ, Ribeiro JP, Kongerslev MT, Stoffers-Winterling J, Sedoc Jørgensen M, Lieb K, Bateman A, Kirubakaran R, Dérian N, Karyotaki E, Cuijpers P, Simonsen E. Individual participant data systematic reviews with meta-analyses of psychotherapies for borderline personality disorder. BMJ Open 2021; 11:e047416. [PMID: 34155077 PMCID: PMC8217922 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-047416] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2020] [Accepted: 06/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The heterogeneity in people with borderline personality disorder (BPD) and the range of specialised psychotherapies means that people with certain BPD characteristics might benefit more or less from different types of psychotherapy. Identifying moderating characteristics of individuals is a key to refine and tailor standard treatments so they match the specificities of the individual participant. The objective of this is to improve the quality of care and the individual outcomes. We will do so by performing three systematic reviews with meta-analyses of individual participant data (IPD). The aim of these reviews is to investigate potential predictors and moderating patient characteristics on treatment outcomes for patients with BPD. METHODS AND ANALYSIS We performed comprehensive searches in 22 databases and trial registries up to October 6th 2020. These will be updated with a top-up search up until June 2021. Our primary meta-analytic method will be the one-stage random-effects approach. To identify predictors, we will use the one-stage model that accounts for interaction between covariates and treatment allocation. Heterogeneity in case-mix will be assessed with a membership model based on a multinomial logistic regression where study membership is the outcome. A random-effects meta-analysis is chosen to account for expected levels of heterogeneity. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The statistical analyses will be conducted on anonymised data that have already been approved by the respective ethical committees that originally assessed the included trials. The three IPD reviews will be published in high-impact factor journals and their results will be presented at international conferences and national seminars. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42021210688.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ole Jakob Storebø
- Psychiatric Department, Region Zealand Psychiatry, Psychiatric Research Unit, Slagelse, Denmark
- Department of Psychology, University of Southern Denmark Faculty of Health Sciences, Odense, Denmark
| | - Johanne Pereira Ribeiro
- Psychiatric Department, Region Zealand Psychiatry, Psychiatric Research Unit, Slagelse, Denmark
| | | | - Jutta Stoffers-Winterling
- Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Centre of the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Mainz, Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany
| | - Mie Sedoc Jørgensen
- Psychiatric Department, Region Zealand Psychiatry, Psychiatric Research Unit, Slagelse, Denmark
| | - Klaus Lieb
- Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Medical Center Mainz, Mainz, Germany
| | - Anthony Bateman
- Royal Free and University College Medical School, London, UK
- Halliwick Day Unit, St. Ann's Hospital, London, UK
| | - Richard Kirubakaran
- Prof BV Moses Centre for Evidence-Informed Healthcare and Health Policy, Vellore, India
| | - Nicolas Dérian
- Data and Development Support Unit, Region Zealand, Køge, Denmark
| | - Eirini Karyotaki
- Department of Clinical Psychology, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Pim Cuijpers
- Department of Clinical Psychology, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Erik Simonsen
- Psychiatric Department, Region Zealand Psychiatry, Psychiatric Research Unit, Slagelse, Denmark
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28
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Prazak J, Irincheeva I, Llewelyn MJ, Stolz D, García de Guadiana Romualdo L, Graf R, Reding T, Klein HJ, Eggimann P, Que YA. Accuracy of pancreatic stone protein for the diagnosis of infection in hospitalized adults: a systematic review and individual patient level meta-analysis. CRITICAL CARE : THE OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE CRITICAL CARE FORUM 2021; 25:182. [PMID: 34049579 PMCID: PMC8164316 DOI: 10.1186/s13054-021-03609-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2021] [Accepted: 05/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Background Accurate biomarkers to diagnose infection are lacking. Studies reported good performance of pancreatic stone protein (PSP) to detect infection. The objective of the study was to determine the performance of PSP in diagnosing infection across hospitalized patients and calculate a threshold value for that purpose. Methods A systematic search across Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and MEDLINE databases (1966–March 2019) for studies on PSP published in English using ‘pancreatic stone protein’, ‘PSP’, ‘regenerative protein’, ‘lithostatin’ combined with ‘infection’ and ‘sepsis’ found 44 records. The search was restricted to the five trials that evaluated PSP for the initial detection of infection in hospitalized adults. Individual patient data were obtained from the investigators of all eligible trials. Data quality and validity was assessed according to PRISMA guidelines. We choose a fixed-effect model to calculate the PSP cut-off value that best discriminates infected from non-infected patients. Results Infection was confirmed in 371 of 631 patients. The median (IQR) PSP value of infected versus uninfected patients was 81.5 (30.0–237.5) versus 19.2 (12.6–33.57) ng/ml, compared to 150 (82.70–229.55) versus 58.25 (15.85–120) mg/l for C-reactive protein (CRP) and 0.9 (0.29–4.4) versus 0.15 (0.08–0.5) ng/ml for procalcitonin (PCT). Using a PSP cut-off of 44.18 ng/ml, the ROC AUC to detect infection was 0.81 (0.78–0.85) with a sensitivity of 0.66 (0.61–0.71), specificity of 0.83 (0.78–0.88), PPV of 0.85 (0.81–0.89) and NPV of 0.63 (0.58–0.68). When a model combining PSP and CRP was used, the ROC AUC improved to 0.90 (0.87–0.92) with higher sensitivity 0.81 (0.77–0.85) and specificity 0.84 (0.79–0.90) for discriminating infection from non-infection. Adding PCT did not improve the performance further. Conclusions PSP is a promising biomarker to diagnose infections in hospitalized patients. Using a cut-off value of 44.18 ng/ml, PSP performs better than CRP or PCT across the considered studies. The combination of PSP with CRP further enhances its accuracy. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-021-03609-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Josef Prazak
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, INO E-403, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, 3010, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | | | - Daiana Stolz
- Clinic of Pulmonary Medicine and Respiratory Cell Research, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | | | - Rolf Graf
- Department of Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, Universitätsspital Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Theresia Reding
- Department of Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, Universitätsspital Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Holger J Klein
- Department of Plastic Surgery and Hand Surgery, Burn Center Zurich, Universitässpital Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Philippe Eggimann
- Department of Locomotor Apparatus, Lausanne University Hospital (CHUV) and University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Yok-Ai Que
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, INO E-403, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, 3010, Bern, Switzerland.
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De Hond A, Raven W, Schinkelshoek L, Gaakeer M, Ter Avest E, Sir O, Lameijer H, Hessels RA, Reijnen R, De Jonge E, Steyerberg E, Nickel CH, De Groot B. Machine learning for developing a prediction model of hospital admission of emergency department patients: Hype or hope? Int J Med Inform 2021; 152:104496. [PMID: 34020171 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2021.104496] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2021] [Revised: 04/26/2021] [Accepted: 05/13/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Early identification of emergency department (ED) patients who need hospitalization is essential for quality of care and patient safety. We aimed to compare machine learning (ML) models predicting the hospitalization of ED patients and conventional regression techniques at three points in time after ED registration. METHODS We analyzed consecutive ED patients of three hospitals using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). We developed prediction models for hospitalization using an increasing number of data available at triage, ∼30 min (including vital signs) and ∼2 h (including laboratory tests) after ED registration, using ML (random forest, gradient boosted decision trees, deep neural networks) and multivariable logistic regression analysis (including spline transformations for continuous predictors). Demographics, urgency, presenting complaints, disease severity and proxies for comorbidity, and complexity were used as covariates. We compared the performance using the area under the ROC curve in independent validation sets from each hospital. RESULTS We included 172,104 ED patients of whom 66,782 (39 %) were hospitalized. The AUC of the multivariable logistic regression model was 0.82 (0.78-0.86) at triage, 0.84 (0.81-0.86) at ∼30 min and 0.83 (0.75-0.92) after ∼2 h. The best performing ML model over time was the gradient boosted decision trees model with an AUC of 0.84 (0.77-0.88) at triage, 0.86 (0.82-0.89) at ∼30 min and 0.86 (0.74-0.93) after ∼2 h. CONCLUSIONS Our study showed that machine learning models had an excellent but similar predictive performance as the logistic regression model for predicting hospital admission. In comparison to the 30-min model, the 2-h model did not show a performance improvement. After further validation, these prediction models could support management decisions by real-time feedback to medical personal.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anne De Hond
- Department of Information Technology and Digital Innovation, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, 2300 RC, Leiden, the Netherlands; Clinical AI Implementation and Research Lab, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, 2300 RC, Leiden, the Netherlands; Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, 2300 RC, Leiden, the Netherlands.
| | - Wouter Raven
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, 2300 RC, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Laurens Schinkelshoek
- Department of Information Technology and Digital Innovation, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, 2300 RC, Leiden, the Netherlands; Clinical AI Implementation and Research Lab, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, 2300 RC, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Menno Gaakeer
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Adrz Hospital, 's-Gravenpolderseweg 114, 4462 RA, Goes, the Netherlands
| | - Ewoud Ter Avest
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University Medical Centre Groningen, Hanzeplein1, 9713 GZ, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | - Ozcan Sir
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Radboud University Medical Centre, Houtlaan 4, 6525 XZ, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Heleen Lameijer
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Medical Centre Leeuwarden, Henri Dunantweg 2, 8934 AD, Leeuwarden, the Netherlands
| | - Roger Apa Hessels
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Elisabeth-TweeSteden Hospital, Doctor Deelenlaan 5, 5042 AD, Tilburg, the Netherlands
| | - Resi Reijnen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Haaglanden Medical Centre, Lijnbaan 32, 2512 VA, The Hague, the Netherlands
| | - Evert De Jonge
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, 2300 RC, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Ewout Steyerberg
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, 2300 RC, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Christian H Nickel
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Switzerland
| | - Bas De Groot
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Leiden University Medical Centre, Albinusdreef 2, 2300 RC, Leiden, the Netherlands
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de Jong VMT, Moons KGM, Eijkemans MJC, Riley RD, Debray TPA. Developing more generalizable prediction models from pooled studies and large clustered data sets. Stat Med 2021; 40:3533-3559. [PMID: 33948970 PMCID: PMC8252590 DOI: 10.1002/sim.8981] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2019] [Revised: 02/16/2021] [Accepted: 03/22/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Prediction models often yield inaccurate predictions for new individuals. Large data sets from pooled studies or electronic healthcare records may alleviate this with an increased sample size and variability in sample characteristics. However, existing strategies for prediction model development generally do not account for heterogeneity in predictor‐outcome associations between different settings and populations. This limits the generalizability of developed models (even from large, combined, clustered data sets) and necessitates local revisions. We aim to develop methodology for producing prediction models that require less tailoring to different settings and populations. We adopt internal‐external cross‐validation to assess and reduce heterogeneity in models' predictive performance during the development. We propose a predictor selection algorithm that optimizes the (weighted) average performance while minimizing its variability across the hold‐out clusters (or studies). Predictors are added iteratively until the estimated generalizability is optimized. We illustrate this by developing a model for predicting the risk of atrial fibrillation and updating an existing one for diagnosing deep vein thrombosis, using individual participant data from 20 cohorts (N = 10 873) and 11 diagnostic studies (N = 10 014), respectively. Meta‐analysis of calibration and discrimination performance in each hold‐out cluster shows that trade‐offs between average and heterogeneity of performance occurred. Our methodology enables the assessment of heterogeneity of prediction model performance during model development in multiple or clustered data sets, thereby informing researchers on predictor selection to improve the generalizability to different settings and populations, and reduce the need for model tailoring. Our methodology has been implemented in the R package metamisc.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valentijn M T de Jong
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.,Cochrane Netherlands, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Karel G M Moons
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.,Cochrane Netherlands, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Marinus J C Eijkemans
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Richard D Riley
- Centre for Prognosis Research, School of Medicine, Keele University, Staffordshire, UK
| | - Thomas P A Debray
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.,Cochrane Netherlands, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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31
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Huang Y, Li W, Macheret F, Gabriel RA, Ohno-Machado L. A tutorial on calibration measurements and calibration models for clinical prediction models. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2021; 27:621-633. [PMID: 32106284 PMCID: PMC7075534 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocz228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 159] [Impact Index Per Article: 53.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2019] [Revised: 12/18/2019] [Accepted: 01/02/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Our primary objective is to provide the clinical informatics community with an introductory tutorial on calibration measurements and calibration models for predictive models using existing R packages and custom implemented code in R on real and simulated data. Clinical predictive model performance is commonly published based on discrimination measures, but use of models for individualized predictions requires adequate model calibration. This tutorial is intended for clinical researchers who want to evaluate predictive models in terms of their applicability to a particular population. It is also for informaticians and for software engineers who want to understand the role that calibration plays in the evaluation of a clinical predictive model, and to provide them with a solid starting point to consider incorporating calibration evaluation and calibration models in their work. Covered topics include (1) an introduction to the importance of calibration in the clinical setting, (2) an illustration of the distinct roles that discrimination and calibration play in the assessment of clinical predictive models, (3) a tutorial and demonstration of selected calibration measurements, (4) a tutorial and demonstration of selected calibration models, and (5) a brief discussion of limitations of these methods and practical suggestions on how to use them in practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yingxiang Huang
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, UC San Diego Health, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Wentao Li
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, UC San Diego Health, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Fima Macheret
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, UC San Diego Health, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.,Division of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Rodney A Gabriel
- Department of Anesthesiology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Lucila Ohno-Machado
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, UC San Diego Health, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.,Division of Health Services Research & Development, VA San Diego Healthcare System, San Diego, California, USA
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32
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Xu J, Chen G, Yan Z, Qiu M, Tong W, Zhang X, Zhang L, Zhu Y, Liu K. Effect of mannose-binding lectin gene polymorphisms on the risk of rheumatoid arthritis: Evidence from a meta-analysis. Int J Rheum Dis 2021; 24:300-313. [PMID: 33458965 PMCID: PMC7986746 DOI: 10.1111/1756-185x.14060] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2020] [Accepted: 12/25/2020] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The effect of mannose-binding lectin (MBL) gene polymorphisms on susceptibility of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) were evaluated in ethnically different populations, whereas the results were always inconsistent. MATERIALS AND METHODS Fourteen articles involving 36 datasets were recruited to evaluate the association between MBL gene polymorphisms and rheumatoid arthritis in a meta-analysis. The random or fixed effect models were used to evaluate the pooled odds ratios (ORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS Stratified analysis by ethnicities was conducted and the result revealed that rs1800450 (T vs C, OR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.04-1.67, P < .05) and MBL-A/O (T vs C, OR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.08-1.34, P < .001) were strongly associated with RA in Brazilian populations. In addition, the significant relationship between rs11003125 (T vs C, OR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.06-1.26, P < .05) with RA were also observed in East Asian populations. Meanwhile, the inverse associations between rs5030737 with RA in East Asians and rs1800450 with RA in Indians were acquired. However, no association between any MBL polymorphism with RA susceptibility was confirmed in Caucasians. CONCLUSIONS The structural polymorphisms in exon 1 of MBL gene may significantly contribute to susceptibility and development of RA in Brazilian and Indian populations, whereas the functional polymorphisms in the promoter region were more likely to associate with RA in East Asians.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinjian Xu
- School of Public HealthSun Yat‐Sen UniversityGuangzhouChina
- Department of Epidemiology and BiostatisticsSchool of Public HealthZhejiang UniversityHangzhouChina
| | - Gang Chen
- Affiliated Dongtai Hospital of Nantong UniversityDongtaiChina
| | - Zhen Yan
- Gaoxin Hospital of The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang UniversityNanchangChina
| | - Mochang Qiu
- Department of Clinical MedicineJiangxi Medical CollegeShangraoChina
| | - Wentao Tong
- Jingdezheng NO.1 People’s HospitalJingdezhenChina
| | | | - Li Zhang
- Department of Clinical MedicineJiangxi Medical CollegeShangraoChina
| | - Yimin Zhu
- Department of Epidemiology and BiostatisticsSchool of Public HealthZhejiang UniversityHangzhouChina
| | - Keqi Liu
- Department of Clinical MedicineJiangxi Medical CollegeShangraoChina
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Gravesteijn BY, Sewalt CA, Venema E, Nieboer D, Steyerberg EW. Missing Data in Prediction Research: A Five-Step Approach for Multiple Imputation, Illustrated in the CENTER-TBI Study. J Neurotrauma 2021; 38:1842-1857. [PMID: 33470157 DOI: 10.1089/neu.2020.7218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
In medical research, missing data is common. In acute diseases, such as traumatic brain injury (TBI), even well-conducted prospective studies may suffer from missing data in baseline characteristics and outcomes. Statistical models may simply drop patients with any missing values, potentially leaving a selected subset of the original cohort. Imputation is widely accepted by methodologists as an appropriate way to deal with missing data. We aim to provide practical guidance on handling missing data for prediction modeling. We hereto propose a five-step approach, centered around single and multiple imputation: 1) explore the missing data patterns; 2) choose a method of imputation; 3) perform imputation; 4) assess diagnostics of the imputation; and 5) analyze the imputed data sets. We illustrate these five steps with the estimation and validation of the IMPACT (International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury) prognostic model in 1375 patients from the CENTER-TBI database, included in 53 centers across 17 countries, with moderate or severe TBI in the prospective European CENTER-TBI study. Future prediction modeling studies in acute diseases may benefit from following the suggested five steps for optimal statistical analysis and interpretation, after maximal effort has been made to minimize missing data.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Esmee Venema
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Daan Nieboer
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ewout W Steyerberg
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.,Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
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Padmalatha S, Tsai YT, Ku HC, Wu YL, Yu T, Fang SY, Ko NY. Higher Risk of Depression After Total Mastectomy Versus Breast Reconstruction Among Adult Women With Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review and Metaregression. Clin Breast Cancer 2021; 21:e526-e538. [PMID: 33541834 DOI: 10.1016/j.clbc.2021.01.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2020] [Revised: 11/03/2020] [Accepted: 01/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
This systematic review with a meta-regression was conducted to determine the risk of depression after mastectomy compared to breast reconstruction among women with breast cancer 1 year after surgery. A literature search was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines using 4 databases: Medline (Ovid), Embase, Cinahl, and the Cochrane Library for the period January 2000 to March 2019. Studies that measured the status of depression within 1 year and immediately after surgery were included. Outcomes related to depression were analyzed by using a pool of event rates and a risk ratio of 95% confidence interval (CI), P value, and a fitting model based on the results of a heterogeneity test of mastectomy and BR. The statistical analysis was conducted using Comprehensive Meta-analysis 3.0 software. Nine studies met the inclusion criteria. There were 865 cases of mastectomy only, with a 22.2% risk of depression (95% CI, 12.4-36.2). In 869 women who underwent BR, the risk of depression was 15.7% (95% CI, 8.8-26.2). The depression risk ratio for mastectomy compared to BR was 1.36 (95% CI, 1.11-1.65). Patients with delayed reconstruction exhibited lower levels of depression (risk ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.57-1.01). The Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) scale showed high sensitivity, and the Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale (HADS) with a cutoff of > 7 could measure even low to moderate depressive symptoms. One in 4 women with breast cancer had symptoms of depression after mastectomy; both surgeries were associated with depression in women 1 year after surgery. Our results will permit the development of proactive treatment plans before and after surgery to mitigate risk and prevent depression through the use of sensitive depression scales like BDI.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sriyani Padmalatha
- International Doctoral Program in Nursing, Department of Nursing, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Yi-Tseng Tsai
- International Doctoral Program in Nursing, Department of Nursing, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Han-Chang Ku
- International Doctoral Program in Nursing, Department of Nursing, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Yi-Lin Wu
- International Doctoral Program in Nursing, Department of Nursing, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan; Department of Nursing, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Tsung Yu
- Department of Public Health, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan.
| | - Su-Ying Fang
- Department of Nursing, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan; Department of Nursing, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan
| | - Nai-Ying Ko
- Department of Nursing, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan; Department of Public Health, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan; Department of Nursing, College of Medicine, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan.
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Steyerberg EW, Bonneville EF. Praise to Robust Prediction Modeling in Large Datasets. JACC CardioOncol 2020; 2:411-413. [PMID: 32955520 PMCID: PMC7491996 DOI: 10.1016/j.jaccao.2020.08.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Ewout W. Steyerberg
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
| | - Edouard F. Bonneville
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands
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Furukawa TA, Debray TPA, Akechi T, Yamada M, Kato T, Seo M, Efthimiou O. Can personalized treatment prediction improve the outcomes, compared with the group average approach, in a randomized trial? Developing and validating a multivariable prediction model in a pragmatic megatrial of acute treatment for major depression. J Affect Disord 2020; 274:690-697. [PMID: 32664003 DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2020.05.141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2020] [Revised: 03/25/2020] [Accepted: 05/26/2020] [Indexed: 02/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Clinical trials have traditionally been analysed at the aggregate level, assuming that the group average would be applicable to all eligible and similar patients. We re-analyzed a mega-trial of antidepressant therapy for major depression to explore whether a multivariable prediction model may lead to different treatment recommendations for individual participants. METHODS The trial compared the second-line treatment strategies of continuing sertraline, combining it with mirtazapine or switching to mirtazapine after initial failure to remit on sertraline among 1,544 patients with major depression. The outcome was the Personal Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) at week 9: the original analyses showed that both combining and switching resulted in greater reduction in PHQ-9 by 1.0 point than continuing. We considered several models of penalized regression or machine learning. RESULTS Models using support vector machines (SVMs) provided the best performance. Using SVMs, continuing sertraline was predicted to be the best treatment for 123 patients, combining for 696 patients, and switching for 725 patients. In the last two subgroups, both combining and switching were equally superior to continuing by 1.2 to 1.4 points, resulting in the same treatment recommendations as with the original aggregate data level analyses; in the first subgroup, however, switching was substantively inferior to combining (-3.1, 95%CI: -5.4 to -0.5). LIMITATIONS Stronger predictors are needed to make more precise predictions. CONCLUSIONS The multivariable prediction models led to improved recommendations for a minority of participants than the group average approach in a megatrial.
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Affiliation(s)
- Toshi A Furukawa
- Departments of Health Promotion and Human Behavior and of Clinical Epidemiology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine / School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan.
| | - Thomas P A Debray
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht University, The Netherlands.
| | - Tatsuo Akechi
- Department of Psychiatry and Cognitive-Behavioral Medicine, Nagoya City University Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Nagoya, Japan.
| | - Mitsuhiko Yamada
- Department of Neuropsychopharmacology, National Institute of Mental Health, National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Tokyo, Japan.
| | | | - Michael Seo
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
| | - Orestis Efthimiou
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Switzerland.
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Lv YC, Yao YH, Lei JJ, Xue JX. Value of soluble fms-like tyrosine 1 in early prediction of severity of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Shijie Huaren Xiaohua Zazhi 2020; 28:594-604. [DOI: 10.11569/wcjd.v28.i14.594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Biomarkers for the early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) are urgently needed for clinical management of this disease. Soluble fms-like tyrosine 1 (sFlt-1), one of the vascular endothelial growth factor receptors, has been found to be associated with various diseases, including AP.
AIM To summarize all the relevant literature to determine the overall clinical value of sFlt-1 in the early diagnosis of severity of AP by meta-analysis.
METHODS CNKI, Wanfang Database, Chinese BioMedicine Database, WEIPU database, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE database were searched systematically. The time range was from the inception of the database to 15 February 2020. Eligible cohort studies on the early predictive value of sFlt-1 for AP of different severities were collected. Quality assessment and data extraction were performed in those clinical trials in line with the inclusion criteria. Stata software was applied to carry out meta-analysis.
RESULTS A total of 7 articles reporting 8 case-control studies were included in the analysis. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio for early prediction of AP severity were 0.65 (95%CI: 0.57-0.72), 0.88 (95%CI: 0.81-0.92), 5.36 (95%CI: 3.30-8.69), 0.40 (95%CI: 0.32-0.51), and 13.35 (95%CI: 6.88-25.88), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81 (95%CI: 0.78-0.84). Subgroup analysis showed that geographical location (Asia, Europe, and America), time of onset (≥ 24 h or < 24 h), and severity assessment method (the Atlanta classification or others) were probably the sources of overall heterogeneity.
CONCLUSION SFlt-1 has only moderate value for early prediction of the severity of AP, with a low sensitivity. Therefore, it needs to be combined with other relevant examinations and clinical indicators for early prediction of the severity of AP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yong-Cai Lv
- Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang 550004, Guizhou Province, China
| | - Yan-Hua Yao
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Baiyun Hospital of Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang 550014, Guizhou Province, China
| | - Jing-Jing Lei
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Baiyun Hospital of Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang 550014, Guizhou Province, China
| | - Jing-Xia Xue
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Affiliated Baiyun Hospital of Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang 550014, Guizhou Province, China
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Affiliation(s)
- Anastassios G Pittas
- Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism, Tufts Medical Center, Boston, MA
| | - Ethan M Balk
- Center for Evidence Synthesis in Health, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI
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Steyerberg EW, Nieboer D, Debray TPA, van Houwelingen HC. Assessment of heterogeneity in an individual participant data meta-analysis of prediction models: An overview and illustration. Stat Med 2019; 38:4290-4309. [PMID: 31373722 PMCID: PMC6772012 DOI: 10.1002/sim.8296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2017] [Revised: 03/23/2019] [Accepted: 06/06/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Clinical prediction models aim to provide estimates of absolute risk for a diagnostic or prognostic endpoint. Such models may be derived from data from various studies in the context of a meta‐analysis. We describe and propose approaches for assessing heterogeneity in predictor effects and predictions arising from models based on data from different sources. These methods are illustrated in a case study with patients suffering from traumatic brain injury, where we aim to predict 6‐month mortality based on individual patient data using meta‐analytic techniques (15 studies, n = 11 022 patients). The insights into various aspects of heterogeneity are important to develop better models and understand problems with the transportability of absolute risk predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ewout W Steyerberg
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.,Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Daan Nieboer
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Thomas P A Debray
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht University Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands.,Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Hans C van Houwelingen
- Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands
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Debray TP, de Jong VM, Moons KG, Riley RD. Evidence synthesis in prognosis research. Diagn Progn Res 2019; 3:13. [PMID: 31338426 PMCID: PMC6621956 DOI: 10.1186/s41512-019-0059-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2018] [Accepted: 04/16/2019] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Over the past few years, evidence synthesis has become essential to investigate and improve the generalizability of medical research findings. This strategy often involves a meta-analysis to formally summarize quantities of interest, such as relative treatment effect estimates. The use of meta-analysis methods is, however, less straightforward in prognosis research because substantial variation exists in research objectives, analysis methods and the level of reported evidence. We present a gentle overview of statistical methods that can be used to summarize data of prognostic factor and prognostic model studies. We discuss how aggregate data, individual participant data, or a combination thereof can be combined through meta-analysis methods. Recent examples are provided throughout to illustrate the various methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas P.A. Debray
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, Utrecht, 3584 CG The Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Universiteitsweg 100, Utrecht, 3584 CG The Netherlands
| | - Valentijn M.T. de Jong
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, Utrecht, 3584 CG The Netherlands
| | - Karel G.M. Moons
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Universiteitsweg 100, Utrecht, 3584 CG The Netherlands
- Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Universiteitsweg 100, Utrecht, 3584 CG The Netherlands
| | - Richard D. Riley
- Research Institute for Primary Care & Health Sciences, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG UK
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