Comparative Critical Decisions in Management

Negative effects of high public debt on health systems facing pandemic crisis: Lessons from COVID-19 in Europe to prepare for future emergencies

The investigation goal here was to analyze how the level of public debt affects preparedness of health systems to face emergencies. In particular, this study examined the negative effects of high public debt on health systems of European countries in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Empirical evidence revealed that European countries with a lower level of government debt as a percentage of GDP both in 2009 and 2019 (the period before the arrival of the pandemic) had lower COVID-19 fatality rates compared to countries with higher levels of public debt. The explanation is that high levels of public debt in countries trigger budget constraints that limit their ability to allocate resources to healthcare systems (e.g., health expenditures and investments), weakening health system performance and causing systemic vulnerability and lower preparedness during emergencies, such as with the COVID-19 pandemic. Implications of health policies are suggested to improve strategies of crisis management.

The impacts of earthquakes on air pollution and strategies for mitigation: a case study of Turkey

This study delves into the repercussions of the 2023 earthquake in Turkey, particularity its impact on air pollution. A year post-event, it is evident that scientific literature has paid limited attention to monitoring the situation. However, the release of hazardous substances, such as asbestos, lead, and other toxins, from damaged structures poses a significant threat by contaminating nearby air, soil, and water sources, thereby jeopardizing ecosystems and public well-being. The improper disposal of waste post-earthquake and the presence of mining and oil refinery sites in the region contribute to potential air pollutants. These circumstances create challenging environments conducive to the spread of respiratory diseases, with potential long-term health and social consequences. Unfortunately, existing data gaps hinder a comprehensive understanding of the situation. This paper pioneers the reporting and analysis of data regarding potential sources of air pollution resulting from the earthquake in Turkey. It also pinpoints gaps in knowledge, outlining areas that demand further investigation. To effectively prevent and mitigate air pollution risks and associated health concerns linked to earthquakes, strategic recommendations are proposed. A key suggestion is the establishment of post-disaster air pollution monitoring systems capable of swiftly identifying emerging health issues, facilitating efficient responses, and curtailing potential long-term effects of the disaster. The paper underscores the necessity for continuous health monitoring of the affected population to mitigate possible adverse impacts on human health. These strategies play a pivotal role in reducing the likelihood of air pollution, supporting emergency response and recovery initiatives, and fostering new dedicated scientific studies.

What is the optimal country for minimum COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates?

The SARS-CoV-2 is a deceptive virus. Despite the remarkable progress in genetic sequencing and subsequent vaccine development, the world continues to grapple with the ominous threats of rapidly appearing SARS-CoV-2 variants. The objective of this manuscript is to rank world countries based on the anticipated scope of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, measured in terms of prevalence per 1 million persons, from the lowest to the highest. The ranking of 162 countries is based on predictions of empirical models, which include three explanatory variables: hospital beds per thousand persons, population density, and the median age of the country's population. Referring to the COVID-19 scope of morbidity, the lowest likelihood of infection is obtained in Niger and Mali, where the dominant characteristic is the young median age (15.1-16.4 years). Referring to the COVID-19 scope of mortality, the lowest likelihood is obtained in Singapore. For Singapore, the dominant feature is the high population density. The optimal solution is intensive vaccination campaigns in the initial phase of the pandemic, particularly among countries with low GDP per capita. Yet, vaccinations may work only where the personal immune system is healthy and thus respond by creating antibodies to the SARS-CoV2 virus. Referring to populations that lack the natural protection of the healthy immune system and thus cannot be vaccinated (e.g., old people, cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy treatments), a complementary solution might be coordination between countries and the establishment of field hospitals, testing laboratories, isolation of areas, humanitarian aid-in the same manner of treatment in other disasters like earthquakes.

COVID-19 cases with a contact history: A modeling study of contact history-stratified data in Japan

The purpose of the present study was to develop a transmission model of COVID-19 cases with and without a contact history to understand the meaning of the proportion of infected individuals with a contact history over time. We extracted epidemiological information regarding the proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases with a contact history and analyzed incidence data stratified by the presence of a contact history in Osaka from January 15 to June 30, 2020. To clarify the relationship between transmission dynamics and cases with a contact history, we used a bivariate renewal process model to describe transmission among cases with and without a contact history. We quantified the next-generation matrix as a function of time; thus, the instantaneous (effective) reproduction number was calculated for different periods of the epidemic wave. We objectively interpreted the estimated next-generation matrix and replicated the proportion of cases with a contact p(t) over time, and we examined the relevance to the reproduction number. We found that p(t) does not take either the maximum or minimum value at a threshold level of transmission with R(t)=1.0. With R(t) < 1 (subcritical level), p(t) was a decreasing function of R(t). Qualitatively, the minimum p(t) was seen in the domain with R(t) > 1. An important future implication for use of the proposed model is to monitor the success of ongoing contact tracing practice. A decreasing signal of p(t) reflects the increasing difficulty of contact tracing. The present study findings indicate that monitoring p(t) would be a useful addition to surveillance.

Are mega-events super spreaders of infectious diseases similar to COVID-19? A look into Tokyo 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to improve preparedness of next international events

Tokyo Summer Olympics and Paralympics have raised social issues regarding the potential rise in COVID-19 cases in Japan and risks associated with the safe organization of mega sporting events during the pandemic, such as the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. This study investigates the Tokyo Summer Olympics as a unique case study to clarify the drivers of infectivity and provide guidelines to host countries for the safe organization of subsequent international sporting events. The result here reveals that Tokyo and Japan did not experience a rise in confirmed cases of COVID-19 due to the hosting of the Summer Olympics. Still, transmission dynamics seems to be mainly driven by the high density of population (about 1.2%, p-value <0.001) like other larger cities in Japan (result confirmed with Mann-Whitney U test, significance at 0.05). Our study provided evidence that hosting mega sporting events during this COVID-19 pandemic is safe if strictly maintained the precautions with non-pharmaceutical (and pharmaceutical) measures of control of infections. The Tokyo Summer Olympics hosting will be exemplary for next international events due to the successful implementation of preventive measures during COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

Protection against SARS-CoV-2 BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants via vaccination and natural infection: A modeling study

With continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, understanding the proportion of the population protected against infection is crucial for public health risk assessment and decision-making and so that the general public can take preventive measures. We aimed to estimate the protection against symptomatic illness caused by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5 elicited by vaccination against and natural infection with other SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants. We used a logistic model to define the protection rate against symptomatic infection caused by BA.1 and BA.2 as a function of neutralizing antibody titer values. Applying the quantified relationships to BA.4 and BA.5 using two different methods, the estimated protection rate against BA.4 and BA.5 was 11.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01-25.4) (method 1) and 12.9% (95% CI: 8.8-18.0) (method 2) at 6 months after a second dose of BNT162b2 vaccine, 44.3% (95% CI: 20.0-59.3) (method 1) and 47.3% (95% CI: 34.1-60.6) (method 2) at 2 weeks after a third BNT162b2 dose, and 52.3% (95% CI: 25.1-69.2) (method 1) and 54.9% (95% CI: 37.6-71.4) (method 2) during the convalescent phase after infection with BA.1 and BA.2, respectively. Our study indicates that the protection rate against BA.4 and BA.5 are significantly lower compared with those against previous variants and may lead to substantial morbidity, and overall estimates were consistent with empirical reports. Our simple yet practical models enable prompt assessment of public health impacts posed by new SARS-CoV-2 variants using small sample-size neutralization titer data to support public health decisions in urgent situations.

Effects of strict containment policies on COVID-19 pandemic crisis: lessons to cope with next pandemic impacts

The goal of the study here is to analyze and assess whether strict containment policies to cope with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis are effective interventions to reduce high numbers of infections and deaths. A homogenous sample of 31 countries is categorized in two sets: countries with high or low strictness of public policy to cope with COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The findings here suggest that countries with a low intensity of strictness have average confirmed cases and fatality rates related to COVID-19 lower than countries with high strictness in containment policies (confirmed cases are 24.69% vs. 26.06% and fatality rates are 74.33% vs. 76.38%, respectively, in countries with low and high strictness of COVID-19 public policies of containment). What this study adds is that high levels of strict restriction policies may not be useful measures of control in containing the spread and negative impact of pandemics similar to COVID-19 and additionally a high strictness in containment policies generates substantial social and economic costs. These findings can be explained with manifold socioeconomic and environmental factors that support transmission dynamics and circulation of COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, high levels of strictness in public policy (and also a high share of administering new vaccines) seem to have low effectiveness to stop pandemics similar to COVID-19 driven by mutant viral agents. These results here suggest that the design of effective health policies for prevention and preparedness of future pandemics should be underpinned in a good governance of countries and adoption of new technology, rather than strict and generalized health polices having ambiguous effects of containment in society.

How do temperature, humidity, and air saturation state affect the COVID-19 transmission risk?

Environmental parameters have a significant impact on the spread of respiratory viral diseases (temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), and air saturation state). T and RH are strongly correlated with viral inactivation in the air, whereas supersaturated air can promote droplet deposition in the respiratory tract. This study introduces a new concept, the dynamic virus deposition ratio (α), that reflects the dynamic changes in viral inactivation and droplet deposition under varying ambient environments. A non-steady-state-modified Wells-Riley model is established to predict the infection risk of shared air space and highlight the high-risk environmental conditions. Findings reveal that a rise in T would significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in the cold season, while the effect is not significant in the hot season. The infection risk under low-T and high-RH conditions, such as the frozen seafood market, is substantially underestimated, which should be taken seriously. The study encourages selected containment measures against high-risk environmental conditions and cross-discipline management in the public health crisis based on meteorology, government, and medical research.

New technological trajectories to reduce fossil-fuel pollution and support sustainable socioeconomic systems.. [DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2323975/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

One of the fundamental problems in modern economies is high carbon emissions and diffusion of pollutants from industrial activities focused on fossil-based energy that generate detrimental effects on climate, environment and human population. The goal of this study is to analyze new trajectories of technologies that can reduce, whenever possible, environmental degradation and support a sustainable growth. A model of technological evolution is proposed to detect new technological trajectories directed to sustainability. Results reveal that technologies with a high sustainability perspective for reducing environmental pollution and climate change are: offshore wind turbines, carbon capture storage technology associated with renewable energy, cellular agriculture and blockchain technology directed positive environmental impact. Findings here can sustain decision making of policymakers towards investment in promising technological directions that reduce environmental pollution and sustain ecological transition and sustainable development in human society.

COVID-19 Vaccination is not a Sufficient Public Policy to face Crisis Management of next Pandemic Threats

This study reveals that a vast vaccination campaign is a necessary but not sufficient public policy to reduce the negative impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis because manifold factors guide the spread of this new infectious disease and related mortality in society. Statistical evidence here, based on a worldwide sample of countries, shows a positive correlation between people fully vaccinated and COVID-19 mortality (r = + 0.65, p-value < 0.01). Multivariate regression, controlling income per capita, confirms this finding. Results suggest that the increasing share of people vaccinated against COVID-19 seems to be a necessary but not sufficient health policy to reduce mortality of COVID-19. The findings here can be explained with the role of Peltzman effect, new variants, environmental and socioeconomic factors that affect the diffusion and negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic in society. This study extends the knowledge in this research field to design effective public policies of crisis management for facing next pandemic threats.

Improving preparedness for next pandemics: Max level of COVID-19 vaccinations without social impositions to design effective health policy and avoid flawed democracies

In the presence of pandemic threats, such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, vaccination is one of the fundamental strategies to cope with negative effects of new viral agents in society. The rollout of vast vaccination campaigns also generates the main issue of hesitancy and resistance to vaccines in a share of people. Many studies have investigated how to reduce the social resistance to vaccinations, however the maximum level of vaccinable people against COVID-19 (and in general against pandemic diseases), without coercion in countries, is unknown. The goal of this study is to solve the problem here by developing an empirical analysis, based on global data, to estimate the max share of people vaccinable in relation to socioeconomic wellbeing of nations. Results, based on 150 countries, reveal that vaccinations increase with the income per capita, achieving the maximum share of about 70% of total population, without coercion. This information can provide new knowledge to establish the appropriate goal of vaccination campaigns and in general of health policies to cope with next pandemic impacts, without restrictions that create socioeconomic problems. Overall, then, nations have a natural level of max vaccinable people (70% of population), but strict policies and mandates to achieve 90% of vaccinated population can reduce the quality of democracy and generate socioeconomic issues higher than (pandemic) crisis.

Meta-analysis to explain unknown causes of the origins of SARS-COV-2

New Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), an infectious illness that has generated a pandemic crisis worldwide. One of the fundamental questions in science and society is how SARS-CoV-2 has been originated to design best practices directed to prevent and/or to cope with future hazardous pathogens. The study confronts this question here developing a meta-analysis, which endeavors to explain, whenever possible, unknown sources of the SARS-CoV-2. Findings suggest that the natural spillover of novel viral agents that generate more than 6.00 M deaths worldwide in about two years (such as, SARS-CoV-2 from February 2020 to March 2022) has a remote probability of occurrence (using an analogy with the probability of natural disasters generating a lot of fatalities), whereas science advances on hazardous viral agents and consequential lab accident have a (higher) probability of occurrence (about 13-20% like in manifold lab accidents). The findings of this meta-analysis suggest the vital role of improving the technical guidelines of biosafety at all levels in laboratories during the development of scientific research of experimental virology on hazardous pathogens to minimize risks of pandemic threats in environment and human society.

Transmission of COVID-19 pandemic (Turkey) associated with short-term exposure of air quality and climatological parameters

The study aims to investigate associations between air pollution, climate parameters, and the diffusion of COVID-19-confirmed cases in Turkey using Spearman's correlation test as an empirical methodology by Statgraphics Centurion XVI (version 16.1) and to determine the risk factors accelerating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus. The present study demonstrates the strong impacts of air pollutants and weather conditions on the transmission of COVID-19 morbidity. Particularly, O3 and PM10 from air quality parameters exhibited the strongest correlation with the number of daily cases in Kütahya (rs = -0.62; p < 0.05) and Sivas (rs = -0.62; p < 0.05) provinces, respectively. In meteorological parameters, rainfall showed the highest impact (rs = 0.76; p < 0.05) on the number of daily COVID-19 cases in Denizli distinct. Moreover, this study suggested that the diffusion of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in regions with high levels of air pollution and low wind speed is dominant. To prevent the negative effects of the future pandemic crisis on public health and economic systems, manifold implications to encourage strategies to reduce air pollution in the polluted region such as being prevalent the usage of renewable energy technologies in particular electricity generation and sustainable policies such as improving the health system should be implemented by decision-makers.

Global analysis of timely COVID-19 vaccinations: improving governance to reinforce response policies for pandemic crises

Purpose

The goal of this study is to analyze the relationship between public governance and COVID-19 vaccinations during early 2021 to assess the preparedness of countries to timely policy responses to cope with pandemic crises.

Design/methodology/approach

This global study elaborates descriptive statistics, correlations, regression analyses and Independent Samples T-Test on 112 countries, comparing those with high/low level of governance, to determine whether statistical evidence supports the hypothesis that good governance can improve the timely administration of vaccines.

Findings

Bivariate correlation reveals that doses of vaccines administered × 100 inhabitants have a high positive association with the General Index of Governance (r = 0.58, p-value <0.01). The result is confirmed by partial correlation (controlling density of population per km2): r = 0.584, p-value <0.001. The coefficient of regression in the models also indicates that an increase in the General Index of Governance improves the expected administration of doses of COVID-19 vaccines (p-value <0.001).

Research limitations/implications

Although this study has provided interesting results that are, of course, tentative, it has several limitations. First, a limitation is the lack of data in several countries. Second, not all the possible confounding factors that affect the vaccination against COVID-19 are investigated, such as country-specific health investments and expenditures, and these aspects should be examined in the future development of this research. A third limit is related to the measurement of governance through the World Governance Indicators, which are based only on perceptions and can be biased by different socio-economic factors.

Practical implications

The identification of factors determining the timely vaccinations may help to design best practices of health policy for improving the resilience of countries to face pandemic crises.

Social implications

The improvement of preparedness of countries through good governance can foster a rapid rollout of vaccinations to cope with pandemic threats and the negative effects of their socio-economic impact.

Originality/value

This study presents a global analysis of the role of public governance for timely vaccinations to face pandemic crises in society.

COVID-19 pandemic over 2020 (withlockdowns) and 2021 (with vaccinations): similar effects for seasonality and environmental factors

How is the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2020 with an health policy of full lockdowns and in 2021 with a vast campaign of vaccinations? The present study confronts this question here by developing a comparative analysis of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic between April-September 2020 (based upon strong control measures) and April-September 2021 (focused on health policy of vaccinations) in Italy, which was one of the first European countries to experience in 2020 high numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths and in 2021 Italy has a high share of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (>89% of population aged over 12 years in January 2022). Results suggest that over the period under study, the arithmetic mean of confirmed cases, hospitalizations of people and admissions to Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in 2020 and 2021 is significantly equal (p-value<0.01), except fatality rate. Results suggest in December 2021 lower hospitalizations, admissions to ICUs, and fatality rate of COVID-19 than December 2020, though confirmed cases and mortality rates are in 2021 higher than 2020, and likely converging trends in the first quarter of 2022. These findings reveal that COVID-19 pandemic is driven by seasonality and environmental factors that reduce the negative effects in summer period, regardless control measures and/or vaccination campaigns. These findings here can be of benefit to design health policy responses of crisis management considering the growth of COVID-19 pandemic in winter months having reduced temperatures and low solar radiations ( COVID-19 has a behaviour of influenza-like illness). Hence, findings here suggest that strategies of prevention and control of infectious diseases similar to COVID-19 should be set up in summer months and fully implemented during low-solar-irradiation periods (autumn and winter period).

Comparison Between China and Brazil in the Two Waves of COVID-19 Prevention and Control

Objective

This study analyzes the effectiveness of COVID-19 prevention and control in China and Brazil from the perspectives of policy and meteorological conditions, and provides experience for epidemic prevention and control.

Methods

This study collects data on meteorological conditions, vaccination and mutant strains in the two countries to analyze the reasons for the differences in epidemic status between the two countries and extracts public data on COVID-19 through various official websites, summarizes the prevention and control policies implemented by the two countries, and evaluates their effectiveness.

Results

As of August 12, 2021, the total number of COVID-19 cases and the daily number of new COVID-19 cases in China have been growing steadily, showing remarkable results in epidemic control. The total number of confirmed cases and the daily number of new confirmed cases in Brazil have continued to increase rapidly. The total death case in Brazil has reached 560,000, far exceeding that in China, and the effect of epidemic prevention and control is not satisfactory.

Conclusions

Multiple factors, such as meteorological conditions, policies and strategies, and economic conditions, can influence the spread of COVID-19, and therefore, the situation varies greatly from country to country. China and Brazil have chosen different interventions in the fight against COVID-19. The policy measures taken by China are typical containment measures and Brazil has a mitigation strategy. From the perspective of the current situation of the epidemic development in both countries, the cumulative death rate and daily new confirmed cases in Brazil are much higher than those in China, which indicates that the containment strategy is more effective than mitigation strategy in preventing and controlling COVID-19. Fighting the epidemic is a global long-lasting battle, and the two countries should learn from each other with the premise of respecting their national conditions. Countries should deepen cooperation and not let up prematurely.

Immunotherapy and CRISPR Cas Systems: Potential Cure of COVID-19?

The COVID-19 has plunged the world into a pandemic that affected millions. The continually emerging new variants of concern raise the question as to whether the existing vaccines will continue to provide sufficient protection for individuals from SARS-CoV-2 during natural infection. This narrative review aims to briefly outline various immunotherapeutic options and discuss the potential of clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat (CRISPR Cas system technology against COVID-19 treatment as specific cure. As the development of vaccine, convalescent plasma, neutralizing antibodies are based on the understanding of human immune responses against SARS-CoV-2, boosting human body immune responses in case of SARS-CoV-2 infection, immunotherapeutics seem feasible as specific cure against COVID-19 if the present challenges are overcome. In cell based therapeutics, apart from the high costs, risks and side effects, there are technical problems such as the production of sufficient potent immune cells and antibodies under limited time to treat the COVID-19 patients in mild conditions prior to progression into a more severe case. The CRISPR Cas technology could be utilized to refine the specificity and safety of CAR-T cells, CAR-NK cells and neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 during various stages of the COVID-19 disease progression in infected individuals. Moreover, CRISPR Cas technology are proposed in hypotheses to degrade the viral RNA in order to terminate the infection caused by SARS-CoV-2. Thus personalized cocktails of immunotherapeutics and CRISPR Cas systems against COVID-19 as a strategy might prevent further disease progression and circumvent immunity escape.

A case study of complex disasters within the resilience framework in Zagreb, Croatia: Two earthquakes in one pandemic

This paper is an analysis of complex crisis management and the importance of resilience on the example of co-occurring disasters. A resilience framework model was analyzed based on epidemiologic data and the interplay of several disasters; the COVID-19 pandemic and two 2020 Zagreb, Croatia earthquakes. A dose-response principle may be applied to a complex crisis scenario, within a resilience-vulnerability framework. The available data present the concept of balance between vulnerability and resilience of the population affected by complex crises as well as possible adaptation mechanisms. Multiple disasters that last for a prolonged period reduce the populations' resilience and increase the risk of the next crisis becoming a disaster as well. Such complex disasters should not be approached by multiple risk management protocols, but rather by a single, multilayered protocol. Health policies that predict the possible effects of complex disasters on health risk management need to provide measures to maintain and promote resilience instead of collapse. These is a clear need to adopt green environmental policies, reduce socioeconomic inequality, train volunteer managers during crises, introduce timely evidence-informed policies and transfer new research and innovations in society rapidly.

Optimal levels of vaccination to reduce COVID-19 infected individuals and deaths: A global analysis

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a pandemic threat that is generating a constant state of alert in manifold countries. One of the strategies of defense against infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19) is the vaccinations that decrease the numbers of infected individuals and deaths. In this context, the optimal level of vaccination for COVID-19 is a basic point to control this pandemic crisis in society. The study here,-using data of doses of vaccines administered per 100 inhabitants, confirmed cases and case fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries (N=192) from March to May 2021,- clarifies the optimal levels of vaccination for reducing the number of infected individuals and, consequently, the numbers of deaths at global level. Findings reveal that the average level of administering about 80 doses of vaccines per 100 inhabitants between countries can sustain a reduction of confirmed cases and number of deaths. In addition, results suggest that an intensive vaccination campaign in the initial phase of pandemic wave leads to a lower optimal level of doses administered per 100 inhabitants (roughly 47 doses of vaccines administered) for reducing infected individuals; however, the growth of pandemic wave (in May, 2021) moves up the optimal level of vaccines to about 90 doses for reducing the numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals. All these results here could aid policymakers to prepare optimal strategies directed to a rapid COVID-19 vaccination rollout, before the takeoff of pandemic wave, to lessen negative effects of pandemic crisis on environment and socioeconomic systems.

Preparedness of countries to face COVID-19 pandemic crisis: Strategic positioning and factors supporting effective strategies of prevention of pandemic threats

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to generate a constant pandemic threat with new mutations of the viral agent (SARS-CoV-2) that create socioeconomic issues. One of the fundamental problems is the evaluation of the preparedness of countries to cope with COVID-19 pandemic crisis to detect and support factors associated with the reduction of mortality and the growth of vaccinations in society. The study here confronts this problem by developing two basic indexes, which measure the performance of countries to face pandemic threats. In particular, the Index r (as resilience) detects the countries having the best performance in the reduction of the negative impact of mortality related to COVID-19 pandemic and the Index p (as preparedness and prevention) assesses best-performer countries to support COVID-19 vaccinations in order to constrain future pandemic threats and support the recovery of socioeconomic systems. Index of resilience is a composite measure based on three indicators associated with COVID-19, given by average mortality, hospital occupancy and Intensive Care Units occupancy per 100 000 people, producing an overall score; Index of preparedness/prevention is a composite measure of two indicators related to COVID-19 vaccinations (i.e., doses of vaccines administered and total vaccinates per 100 000 people), producing also an overall score of performance. The application of these indexes on a case study of European countries, having a homogenous socioeconomic area, shows the strategic positioning of countries to cope with a major pandemic threat. Findings reveal that all countries have some weaknesses and no country has a high preparedness to cope with a major epidemic or pandemic. Moreover, results suggest that best-performer countries to cope with COVID-19 pandemic crisis have a smaller size of population and/or better public governance, associated with high expenditures in health system. These indexes can help policymakers for designing effective strategies to improve preparedness and prevention of countries to face future pandemic threats.

Evolution and structure of research fields driven by crises and environmental threats: the COVID-19 research

Evolution of science and behavior of new research fields emerging under conditions of crisis are newtopics hardly known in social studies of science and scientometrics. In particular, the ecosystem and dynamics of research fields during crisis are vital aspects for explaining and planning the scientific development, and allocating resources efficaciously toward positive societal impact. This study here endeavors to analyze the evolution and structure of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) research, a new research field emerged and driven by a global pandemic crisis. The dynamics and structure of this research field are compared to related fields concerning respiratory disorders that are not guided by pandemic crisis, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer, to explain similarities and differences. Results suggest that a crisis-driven research field is characterized by an unparalleled velocity of scientific production equal to about 1.2% daily, based on notes and short papers mainly open access that support scientific advances and discoveries in research arena over a short period of time, such as the development of innovative drugs given by novel vaccines and new antiviral COVID-19 treatments. Findings are generalized in properties that clarify the evolution and structure of new research fields and their research behavior in a period of crisis for guiding decisions of policymakers to support scientific and technological progress in human society in the presence of environmental threats.

International trade as critical parameter of COVID-19 spread that outclasses demographic, economic, environmental, and pollution factors

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that caused the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), generating high numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths, is still circulating in 2021 with new variants of the coronavirus, such that the state of emergency remains in manifold countries. Currently, there is still a lack of a full understanding of the factors determining the COVID-19 diffusion that clarify the causes of the variability of infections across different provinces and regions within countries. The main goal of this study is to explain new and main determinants underlying the diffusion of COVID-19 in society. This study focuses on international trade because this factor, in a globalized world, can synthetize different drivers of virus spread, such as mobility patterns, economic potentialities, and social interactions of an investigated areas. A case study research is performed on 107 provinces of Italy, one of the first countries to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths. Statistical analyses from March 2020 to February 2021 suggest that total import and export of provinces has a high association with confirmed cases over time (average r > 0.78, p-value <.001). Overall, then, this study suggests total import and export as complex indicator of COVID-19 transmission dynamics that outclasses other common parameters used to justify the COVID-19 spread, given by economic, demographic, environmental, and climate factors. In addition, this study proposes, for the first time, a time-dependent correlation analysis between trade data and COVID-19 infection cases to explain the relation between confirmed cases and social interactions that are a main source of the diffusion of SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent negative impact in society. These novel findings have main theoretical and practical implications directed to include a new parameter in modelling of the diffusion of COVID-19 pandemic to support effective policy responses of crisis management directed to constrain the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and similar infectious diseases in society.

The relation between length of lockdown, numbers of infected people and deaths of Covid-19, and economic growth of countries: Lessons learned to cope with future pandemics similar to Covid-19 and to constrain the deterioration of economic system

How is the relation between duration of lockdown and numbers of infected people and deaths of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and growth level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in countries? Results here suggest that, during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic, countries with a shorter period of lockdown (about 15 days: Austria, Portugal and Sweden) have average confirmed cases divided by population higher than countries with a longer period of lockdown (about 60 days, i.e., 2 months: France, Italy and Spain); moreover, countries with a shorter period of lockdown have average fatality rate (5.45%) lower than countries with a longer length of lockdown (12.70%), whereas average variation of fatality rate from March to August 2020 (first pandemic wave of COVID-19) suggests a higher reduction in countries with a longer period of lockdown than countries with a shorter duration (−1.9% vs. −0.72%). Independent Samples Test reveals that average fatality rate of countries with a shorter period of lockdown was significantly lower than countries with a longer period of lockdown (5.4% vs. 12.7%, p-value<.05). The Mann-Whitney Test confirms that average fatality rate of countries with a shorter period of lockdown is significantly lower than countries having a longer period of lockdown (U = 0, p-value = .005). In addition, results show that lockdowns of longer duration have generated negative effects on GDP growth: average contraction of GDP (index 2010 = 100) from second quarter 2019 to second quarter of 2020 in countries applying a longer period of lockdown (i.e., about two months) is about −21%, whereas it is −13% in countries applying a shorter period of lockdown of about 15 days (significant difference with Independent Samples Test: t₄ = −2.274, p-value < .085). This finding shows a systematic deterioration of economic system because of containment policies based on a longer duration of lockdown in society. Another novel finding here reveals that countries with higher investments in healthcare (as percentage of GDP) have alleviated fatality rate of COVID-19 and simultaneously have applied a shorter period of lockdown, reducing negative effects on economic system in terms of contraction of economic growth. Overall, then, using lessons learned of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic crisis, this study must conclude that a strategy to reduce the negative impact of future epidemics similar to COVID-19 has to be based on a reinforcement of healthcare sector to have efficient health organizations to cope with pandemics of new viral agents by minimizing fatality rates; finally, high investments in health sector create the social conditions to apply lockdowns of short run with lower negative effects on socioeconomic systems.

The impact of first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in society: comparative analysis to support control measures to cope with negative effects of future infectious diseases

The goal of this study is a comparative analysis of the first and second wave of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to assess the impact on health of people for designing effective policy responses to constrain negative effects of future pandemic waves of COVID-19 and similar infectious diseases in society. The research here focuses on a case study of Italy, one of the first countries to experience a rapid increase in numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. Statistical analyses, based on daily data from February 2020 to February 2021, suggest that the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy had a high negative impact on health of people over February-May 2020 period; after that, negative effects declined from June 2020 onwards. Second wave of COVID-19 pandemic from August 2020 to February 2021 had a growing incidence of confirmed cases also associated with variants of coronavirus, whereas admissions to Intensive Care Units and total deaths had lower levels compared to first wave of COVID-19. Lessons learned of this comparative analysis between first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy can be generalized in similar geo-economic areas to support effective policy responses of crisis management to constrain the negative impact on health of people of recurring waves of COVID-19 pandemic and similar infectious diseases in future.

Pandemic Prevention: Lessons from COVID-19

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which appeared in late 2019, generating a pandemic crisis with high numbers of COVID-19-related infected individuals and deaths in manifold countries worldwide. Lessons learned from COVID-19 can be used to prevent pandemic threats by designing strategies to support different policy responses, not limited to the health system, directed to reduce the risks of the emergence of novel viral agents, the diffusion of infectious diseases and negative impact in society.

Effects of the spread of COVID-19 on public health of polluted cities: results of the first wave for explaining the dejà vu in the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic and epidemics of future vital agents

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is generating a high number of deaths worldwide. One of the current questions in the field of environmental science is to explain how air pollution can affect the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on public health. The research here focuses on a case study of Italy. Results suggest that the diffusion of COVID-19 in cities with high levels of air pollution is generating higher numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. In particular, results reveal that the number of infected people was higher in cities with more than 100 days per year exceeding limits set for PM10 or ozone, cities located in hinterland zones (i.e. away from the coast), cities having a low average speed of wind and cities with a lower average temperature. In hinterland cities having a high level of air pollution, coupled with low wind speed, the average number of infected people in April 2020-during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic-is more than tripled compared to cities with low levels of air pollution. In addition, results show that more than 75% of infected individuals and about 81% of deaths of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy are in industrialized regions with high levels of air pollution. Although these vital results of the first wave of the COVID-19 from February to August 2020, policymakers have had a low organizational capacity to plan effective policy responses for crisis management to cope with COVID-19 pandemic that is generating recurring waves with again negative effects, déjà vu, on public health and of course economic systems.

How (Un)sustainable Environments Are Related to the Diffusion of COVID-19: The Relation between Coronavirus Disease 2019, Air Pollution, Wind Resource and Energy

The pandemic caused by novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is generating a high number of cases and deaths, with negative effects on public health and economic systems. One of the current questions in the contemporary environmental and sustainability debate is how high air pollution and reduced use of renewable energy can affect the diffusion of COVID-19. This study endeavors to explain the relation between days of air pollution, wind resources and energy, and the diffusion of COVID-19 to provide insights into sustainable policy to prevent future epidemics. The statistical analysis here focuses on a case study of Italy, one of the first countries to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths. The results reveal two main findings: (1) cities with high wind speed and high wind energy production have a lower number of cases of COVID-19 in the context of a more sustainable environment; (2) cities located in hinterland zones with high air pollution, low wind speed and less wind energy production have a greater number of cases and total deaths. The results presented here suggest that the pandemic caused by novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and future epidemics similar to COVID-19 cannot be solved only with research in medicine but the solution also needs advanced capabilities and technologies for supporting sustainable development based on the reduction of air pollution and increase of production in renewable energy to improve air quality and as a consequence public health.

HOW IS THE IMPACT ON PUBLIC HEALTH OF SECOND WAVE OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC COMPARED TO THE FIRST WAVE? CASE STUDY OF ITALY.. [DOI: 10.1101/2020.11.16.20232389]

The main goal of this study is to compare the effects on public health of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to first wave in society. The paper here focuses on a case study of Italy, one of the first European countries to experience a rapid increase in confirmed cases and deaths. Methodology considers daily data from February to November 2020 of the ratio of confirmed cases/total swabs, fatality rate (deaths / confirmed cases) and ratio of individuals in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) / Confirmed cases. Results reveal that the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy had a strong but declining impact on public health with the approaching of summer season and with the effects of containment measures, whereas second wave of the COVID-19 has a growing trend of confirmed cases with admission to ICUs and total deaths having a, to date, lower impact on public health compared to first wave. Although effects of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health, policymakers have had an unrealistic optimist behavior that a new wave of COVID-19 could not hit their countries and, especially, a low organizational capacity to plan effective policy responses to cope with recurring COVID-19 pandemic crisis. This study can support vital information to design effective policy responses of crisis management to constrain current and future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and similar epidemics in society.

THE IMPACT OF LOCKDOWN ON PUBLIC HEALTH DURING THE FIRST WAVE OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC: LESSONS LEARNED FOR DESIGNING EFFECTIVE CONTAINMENT MEASURES TO COPE WITH SECOND WAVE.. [DOI: 10.1101/2020.10.22.20217695]

What is hardly known in the studies of the COVID-19 global pandemic crisis is the impact of general lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic both public health and economic system. The main goal of this study is a comparative analysis of some European countries with a longer and shorter period of national lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 from March to August 2020. Findings suggests that: a) countries with shorter period of lockdown have a variation of confirmed cases/population (%) higher than countries with longer period of lockdown; b) countries with shorter period of lockdown have average fatality rate (5.45%) lower than countries with longer period of lockdown (12.70%), whereas variation of fatality rate from August to March 2020 suggests a higher reduction in countries with longer period of lockdown (−1.9% vs 0.72%). However, Independent Samples Test and the Mann-Whitney test reveal that the effectiveness of longer period of lockdown versus shorter one on public health is not significant. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic associated with longer period of lockdown has a higher negative impact on economic growth with consequential social issues in countries. Results of the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on public health and economies of some leading countries in Europe, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, can provide vital information to design effective containment strategies in future waves of this pandemic to minimize the negative effects in society.