Cardiovascular risk factor trends in the Eastern Mediterranean region: evidence from four countries is alarming

Association between metabolic score for insulin resistance and clinical outcomes: insights from the Tehran lipid and glucose study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to assess the relationship between Metabolic Score for Insulin Resistance (METS-IR) and the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, mortality, diabetes, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a population from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

METHOD

Individuals aged ≥ 20 years were enrolled. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to assess the association between METS-IR and incident CHD, stroke, all-cause mortality, diabetes, hypertension, and CKD.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 9-18 years, 1080 (10.6%), 267 (2.6%), 1022 (9.6%), 1382 (16.4%), 2994 (58.5%), and 2002 (23.0%) CHD, stroke, all-cause mortality, diabetes, hypertension, and CKD events occurred, respectively. Compared to the lowest quartile (reference), the hazard ratios (HR) associated with the highest quartile of METS-IR were 1.527 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.208-1.930, P for trend 0.001), 1.393 (0.865-2.243, > 0.05), 0.841 (0.682-1.038, > 0.05), 3.277 (2.645-4.060, < 0.001), 1.969 (1.752-2.214, < 0.001), and 1.020 (0.874-1.191, > 0.05) for CHD, stroke, all-cause mortality, diabetes, hypertension, and CKD, respectively. METS-IR, as a continuous variable, was significantly associated with the risk of incident CHD [HR, 95% CI: 1.106, 1.034-1.184], diabetes [1.524, 1.438-1.616], and hypertension [1.321, 1.265-1.380]. These associations were also independent of metabolic syndrome (METS) and remained unchanged in a subgroup of individuals without METS and/or diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing levels of METS-IR were significantly associated with a greater risk of incident CHD, diabetes, and hypertension; therefore, this index can be a useful tool for capturing the risk of these clinical outcomes.

Impact of trends and gender disparity in obesity on future type 2 diabetes in Turkey: a mathematical modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Using a previously developed and validated mathematical model, we predicted future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and major modifiable risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity and smoking) stratified by age and sex in Turkey up to the year 2050.

METHODS

Our deterministic compartmental model fitted nationally representative demographic and risk factor data simultaneously for Turkish adults (aged 20-79) between 1997 and 2017, then estimated future trends. Our novel approach explored the impact of future obesity trends on these projections, specifically modelling (1) a gradual fall in obesity in women after the year 2020 until it equalled the age-specific levels seen in men and (2) cessation of the rise in obesity after 2020.

RESULTS

T2DM prevalence is projected to rise from an estimated 14.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 12.8% to 16.0%) in 2020 to 18.4% (95% UI 16.9% to 20.9%) by 2050; 19.7% in women and 17.2% in men by 2050; reflecting high levels of obesity (39.7% for women and 22.0% for men in 2050). Overall, T2DM prevalence could be reduced by about 4% if obesity stopped rising after 2020 or by 12% (22% in women) if obesity prevalence among women could be lowered to equal that of men. The higher age-specific obesity prevalence among women resulted in 2 076 040 additional women developing T2DM by the year 2050.

CONCLUSION

T2DM is common in Turkey and will remain so. Interventions and policies targeting the high burden of obesity (and low physical activity levels), particularly in women, could significantly impact future disease burdens.

Global epidemiology, health burden and effective interventions for elevated blood pressure and hypertension

High blood pressure is one of the most important risk factors for ischaemic heart disease, stroke, other cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease and dementia. Mean blood pressure and the prevalence of raised blood pressure have declined substantially in high-income regions since at least the 1970s. By contrast, blood pressure has risen in East, South and Southeast Asia, Oceania and sub-Saharan Africa. Given these trends, the prevalence of hypertension is now higher in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. In 2015, an estimated 8.5 million deaths were attributable to systolic blood pressure >115 mmHg, 88% of which were in low-income and middle-income countries. Measures such as increasing the availability and affordability of fresh fruits and vegetables, lowering the sodium content of packaged and prepared food and staples such as bread, and improving the availability of dietary salt substitutes can help lower blood pressure in the entire population. The use and effectiveness of hypertension treatment vary substantially across countries. Factors influencing this variation include a country's financial resources, the extent of health insurance and health facilities, how frequently people interact with physicians and non-physician health personnel, whether a clear and widely adopted clinical guideline exists and the availability of medicines. Scaling up treatment coverage and improving its community effectiveness can substantially reduce the health burden of hypertension.

Quantifying gender inequalities in obesity: findings from the Turkish population-based Balcova Heart Study

OBJECTIVES

Sparse evidence is available to explain obesity variations between genders in the Turkish population. To our knowledge, no previous study has analysed the magnitude of gender differences in obesity using common social determinants of health. We aimed to quantify gender inequalities in obesity in terms of education, employment status, occupation and perceived income in a Turkish population.

STUDY DESIGN

The study design used is a cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Population-based data from the Balcova Heart Study (n = 16,080) were analysed. Logistic regression models were used to calculate the crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) when comparing obesity prevalence in women vs men within each category of social determinants.

RESULTS

Women had a higher risk of being obese than men (adjusted OR [aOR] = 2.04 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 1.7-2.1]). Gender inequality in obesity decreased as the level of education increased, from 'primary school' (aOR = 2.5 [95% CI: 2.2-2.8]) to 'university' (aOR = 0.9 [95% CI: 0.6-1.1]). Women had a higher risk of obesity within the 'unemployed' category compared with men (aOR = 2.2 [95% CI: 1.6-3.0]). Gender inequality in obesity decreased with a higher perception of income, from 'low' (aOR = 2.1 [95% CI: 1.6-3.0]) to 'high' (aOR = 1.5 [95% CI: 1.2-2.0]).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the fact that gender inequalities in obesity are greatest within populations of low education, unemployment and lower perception of income. Reduced gender inequality in obesity prevalence was seen for the subpopulation with professional occupations, with women having decreased odds of obesity compared with men. Conversely, unemployed women had increased odds of obesity compared with unemployed men. Increasing the status of women should be prioritised in policies to tackle obesity in the Turkish population and in similar developing populations elsewhere.

Hidden Figures: Are Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Women Really so Different When it Comes to Health Care?

Incorporating the needs of at-risk populations into national health care initiatives is essential. Israel has identified ultra-Orthodox Jewish, or Haredi, women, as at risk of increased morbidity and mortality, yet actual data on this insular community are lacking. We reviewed published research on Israeli Haredi women's health status, behaviors and health care access and examined methodologies. Of 273 articles identified, 14 publications and four government reports were included. More research is needed on this community, essential not only to Israeli health care policy, but to that of the USA and the UK, who share the largest percentages of Haredi Jews.

Explaining income-related inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors in Tunisian adults during the last decade: comparison of sensitivity analysis of logistic regression and Wagstaff decomposition analysis

BACKGROUND

It is important to quantify inequality, explain the contribution of underlying social determinants and to provide evidence to guide health policy. The aim of the study is to explain the income-related inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors in the last decade among Tunisian adults aged between 35 and 70 years old.

METHODS

We performed the analysis by applying two approaches and compared the results provided by the two methods. The methods were global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using logistic regression models and the Wagstaff decomposition analysis.

RESULTS

Results provided by the two methods found a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in those with high socio-economic status in 2005. Similar results were observed in 2016. In 2016, the GSA showed that education level occupied the first place on the explanatory list of factors explaining 36.1% of the adult social inequality in high cardiovascular risk, followed by the area of residence (26.2%) and income (15.1%). Based on the Wagstaff decomposition analysis, the area of residence occupied the first place and explained 40.3% followed by income and education level explaining 19.2 and 14.0% respectively. Thus, both methods found similar factors explaining inequalities (income, educational level and regional conditions) but with different rankings of importance.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study showed substantial income-related inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors and diabetes in Tunisia and provided explanations for this. Results based on two different methods similarly showed that structural disparities on income, educational level and regional conditions should be addressed in order to reduce inequalities.

Sex-specific initiation rates of tobacco smoking and its determinants among adults from a Middle Eastern population: a cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the initiation rate and determinants of tobacco smoking among adults.

METHODS

In the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, a population-based cohort from Iran, 6101 participants ≥ 18 years old who had never smoked tobacco at baseline (phase II: 2002-2006) were followed until phase VI (2015-2018). Sex-specific initiation rates per 1000 person-years for self-reported tobacco smoking and hazard ratios (HR) for its potential determinants (using Cox proportional hazards models) were calculated.

RESULTS

The age- and sex-adjusted smoking initiation rate was 13.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 12.59-14.94] per 1000 person-years, of which 78% was attributed to water pipe use. Initiation rate was remarkably higher among men [19.1 (16.9-21.2)] than women [8.3 (7.4-9.2)] and declined in older age-groups. Among both genders, being married was protective [men: HR 0.67 (CI 95% 0.48-0.92); women: 0.58 (0.45-0.74)], while intermediate-level education (compared with high level) [men: 1.61 (1.14-2.26); women: 1.33 (0.95-1.84, p value = 0.092)] and passive smoking [men: 1.76 (1.36-2.28); women: 1.82 (1.42-2.33)] increased the risk. Educational intervention decreased the risk among women [0.74 (0.58-0.94)].

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of adult smoking initiators started smoking with water pipe. The initiation rate was remarkably higher in men and younger age-groups. Passive smoking, being single and lower education were risk factors. Educational intervention was protective among women.

Context-led capacity building in time of crisis: fostering non-communicable diseases (NCD) research skills in the Mediterranean Middle East and North Africa

Background: This paper examines one EC-funded multinational project (RESCAP-MED), with a focus on research capacity building (RCB) concerning non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the Mediterranean Middle East and North Africa. By the project’s end (2015), the entire region was engulfed in crisis.

Objective: Designed before this crisis developed in 2011, the primary purpose of RESCAP-MED was to foster methodological skills needed to conduct multi-disciplinary research on NCDs and their social determinants. RESCAP-MED also sought to consolidate regional networks for future collaboration, and to boost existing regional policy engagement in the region on the NCD challenge. This analysis examines the scope and sustainability of RCB conducted in a context of intensifying political turmoil.

Methods: RESCAP-MED linked two sets of activities. The first was a framework for training early- and mid-career researchers through discipline-based and writing workshops, plus short fellowships for sustained mentoring. The second integrated public-facing activities designed to raise the profile of the NCD burden in the region, and its implications for policymakers at national level. Key to this were two conferences to showcase regional research on NCDs, and the development of an e-learning resource (NETPH).

Results: Seven discipline-based workshops (with 113 participants) and 6 workshops to develop writing skills (84 participants) were held, with 18 fellowship visits. The 2 symposia in Istanbul and Beirut attracted 280 participants. Yet the developing political crisis tagged each activity with a series of logistical challenges, none of which was initially envisaged. The immediacy of the crisis inevitably deflected from policy attention to the challenges of NCDs.

Conclusions: This programme to strengthen research capacity for one priority area of global public health took place as a narrow window of political opportunity was closing. The key lessons concern issues of sustainability and the paramount importance of responsively shaping a context-driven RCB.

Management of patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction: Results of the FAST-MI Tunisia Registry

Background

The FAST-MI Tunisia registry was set up by the Tunisian Society of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery to assess the demographic and clinical characteristics, management and hospital outcome of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

Methods

Data for 459 consecutive patients (mean age 60.8 years; 88.5% male) with STEMI, treated in 16 public hospitals (representing 72.2% of public hospitals in Tunisia treating STEMI patients), were collected prospectively.The most common risk factors were smoking (63.6%), hypertension (39.7%), diabetes (32%) and dyslipidaemia (18.2%).

Results

Among the 459 patients, 61.8% received reperfusion therapy: 30% with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) and 31.8% with intravenous fibrinolysis (IF) (28.6% with pre-hospital thrombolysis). The median time from symptom onset to thrombolysis was 185 min and to PPCI was 358 min. In-hospital mortality was 5.3%. Compared with those managed at regional hospitals, patients managed at interventional university hospitals (n = 357) were more likely to receive reperfusion therapy (52.9% vs. 34.1%; p<0.001), with less IF (28.6% vs. 43.1%; p = 0.002) but more PPCI (37.8% vs. 3.9%; p<0.0001). However, in-hospital mortality in the two types of hospitals was similar (5.3% vs. 5.1%; p = 0.866).

Conclusions

Data from the FAST-MI Tunisia registry show that a pharmaco-invasive strategy of management for STEMI should be promoted in non-interventional regional hospitals.

What influenced provision of non-communicable disease healthcare in the Syrian conflict, from policy to implementation? A qualitative study

BACKGROUND

There has been increasing focus on tackling the growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCD) in crisis settings. The complex and protracted crisis in Syria is unfolding against a background of increasing NCD burden. This study investigated factors influencing implementation of NCD healthcare in Syria.

METHODS

This is a qualitative study, whereby semi-structured interviews were conducted with fourteen humanitarian health staff working on NCD healthcare in Syria.

RESULTS

Challenges to NCD care implementation were reflected at several stages, from planning services through to healthcare delivery. There was a lack of information on unmet population need; little consensus among humanitarian actors regarding an appropriate health service package; and no clear approach for prioritising public health interventions. The main challenges to service delivery identified by participants were conflict-related insecurity and disruption to infrastructure, hampering continuity of chronic illness care. Collaboration was a key factor which influenced implementation at all stages.

CONCLUSIONS

The historical context, the conflict situation, and the characteristics of health actors and their relationships, all impacted provision of NCD care. These factors influenced each other, so that the social views and values (of individuals and organisations), as well as politics and relationships, interacted with the physical environment and security situation. Infrastructure damage has implications for wider healthcare across Syria, and NCD care requires an innovative approach to improve continuity of care. There is a need for a transparent approach to resource allocation, which may be generalisable to the wider humanitarian health sector.

Diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

OBJECTIVES

We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to update our previous publication on the burden of diabetes and chronic kidney disease due to diabetes (CKD-DM) during 1990-2015.

METHODS

We extracted GBD 2015 estimates for prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of diabetes (including burden of low vision due to diabetes, neuropathy, and amputations and CKD-DM for 22 countries of the EMR from the GBD visualization tools.

RESULTS

In 2015, 135,230 (95% UI 123,034-148,184) individuals died from diabetes and 16,470 (95% UI 13,977-18,961) from CKD-DM, 216 and 179% increases, respectively, compared to 1990. The total number of people with diabetes was 42.3 million (95% UI 38.6-46.4 million) in 2015. DALY rates of diabetes in 2015 were significantly higher than the expected rates based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed a large and increasing burden of diabetes in the region. There is an urgency in dealing with diabetes and its consequences, and these efforts should be at the forefront of health prevention and promotion.

Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants

BACKGROUND

Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.

METHODS

For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.

FINDINGS

We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7-128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0-123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9-79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9-77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4-27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8-22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.

INTERPRETATION

During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Potential benefits of healthy food and lifestyle policies for reducing coronary heart disease mortality in Turkish adults by 2025: a modelling study

OBJECTIVE

This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking, physical activity levels, dietary salt, saturated fat intake, mean body mass index (BMI) levels, diabetes prevalence and fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Turkey for year 2025.

DESIGN

A CHD mortality model previously developed and validated in Turkey was extended to predict potential trends in CHD mortality from 2008 to 2025.

SETTING

Using risk factor trends data from recent surveys as a baseline, we modelled alternative evidence-based future risk factor scenarios (modest/ideal scenarios). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties.

SUBJECT

Projected populations in 2025 (aged 25-84) of 54 million in Turkey.

RESULTS

Assuming lower mortality, modest policy changes in risk factors would result in ∼25 635 (range: 20 290-31 125) fewer CHD deaths in the year 2025; 35.6% attributed to reductions in salt consumption, 20.9% to falls in diabetes, 14.6% to declines in saturated fat intake and 13.6% to increase in F&V intake. In the ideal scenario, 45 950 (range: 36 780-55 450) CHD deaths could be prevented in 2025. Again, 33.2% of this would be attributed to reductions in salt reduction, 19.8% to increases in F&V intake, 16.7% to reductions in saturated fat intake and 14.0% to the fall in diabetes prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Only modest risk factor changes in salt, saturated/unsaturated fats and F&V intake could prevent around 16 000 CHD deaths in the year 2025 in Turkey, even assuming mortality continues to decline. Implementation of population-based, multisectoral interventions to reduce salt and saturated fat consumption and increase F&V consumption should be scaled up in Turkey.

[Management of patients treated for acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction in Tunisia: Preliminary results of FAST-MI Tunisia Registry from Tunisian Society of Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery]

FAST-MI Tunisian registry was initiated by the Tunisian Society of Cardiology and Cardio-vascular Surgery to assess characteristics, management, and hospital outcomes in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS

We prospectively collected data from 203 consecutive patients (mean age 60.3 years, 79.8 % male) with STEMI who were treated in 15 public hospitals (representing 68.2 % of Tunisian public centres treating STEMI patients) during a 3-month period at the end of 2014. The most common risk factor was tobacco (64.9 %), hypertension (38.6 %), diabetes (36.9 %) and dyslipidemia (24.6 %).

RESULTS

Among these patients, 66 % received reperfusion therapy, 35 % with primary percutaneous coronary interventions (PAMI), 31 % with thrombolysis (28.6 % of them by pre-hospital thrombolysis). The median time from symptom onset to thrombolysis was 185 and 358 min for PAMI, respectively. The in-hospital mortality was 7.0 %. Patients enrolled in interventional centers (n=156) were more likely to receive any reperfusion therapy (19.8 % vs 44.6 %; p<0.001) than at the regional system of care with less thrombolysis (26.9 % vs 44.6 %; p=0.008) and more PAMI (52.8 % vs 8.5 %; p<0.0001). Also the in-hospital mortality was lower (6.4 % vs 9.3 %) but not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Preliminary results from FAST-MI in Tunisia show that the pharmaco- invasive strategy should be promoted in non-interventional centers.

Global trends and projections for tobacco use, 1990-2025: an analysis of smoking indicators from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control

BACKGROUND

Countries have agreed on reduction targets for tobacco smoking stipulated in the WHO global monitoring framework, for achievement by 2025. In an analysis of data for tobacco smoking prevalence from nationally representative survey data, we aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of recent trends in tobacco smoking, projections for future tobacco smoking, and country-level estimates of probabilities of achieving tobacco smoking targets.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical meta-regression modelling approach using data from the WHO Comprehensive Information Systems for Tobacco Control to assess trends from 1990 to 2010 and made projections up to 2025 for current tobacco smoking, daily tobacco smoking, current cigarette smoking, and daily cigarette smoking for 173 countries for men and 178 countries for women. Modelling was implemented in Python with DisMod-MR and PyMC. We estimated trends in country-specific prevalence of tobacco use, projections for future tobacco use, and probabilities for decreased tobacco use, increased tobacco use, and achievement of targets for tobacco control from posterior distributions.

FINDINGS

During the most recent decade (2000-10), the prevalence of tobacco smoking in men fell in 125 (72%) countries, and in women fell in 156 (88%) countries. If these trends continue, only 37 (21%) countries are on track to achieve their targets for men and 88 (49%) are on track for women, and there would be an estimated 1·1 billion current tobacco smokers (95% credible interval 700 million to 1·6 billion) in 2025. Rapid increases are predicted in Africa for men and in the eastern Mediterranean for both men and women, suggesting the need for enhanced measures for tobacco control in these regions.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show that striking between-country disparities in tobacco use would persist in 2025, with many countries not on track to achieve tobacco control targets and several low-income and middle-income countries at risk of worsening tobacco epidemics if these trends remain unchanged. Immediate, effective, and sustained action is necessary to attain and maintain desirable trajectories for tobacco control and achieve global convergence towards elimination of tobacco use.

FUNDING

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan; Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology, Japan; Department of Health, Australia; Bloomberg Philanthropies.