Reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia and risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: the Whitehall II cohort study

Longitudinal HbA1c patterns before the first treatment of diabetes in routine clinical practice: A latent class trajectory analysis

AIMS

To examine the longitudinal heterogeneity of HbA1c preceding the initiation of diabetes treatment in clinical practice.

METHODS

In this population-based study, we used HbA1c from routine laboratory and healthcare databases. Latent class trajectory analysis was used to classify individuals according to their longitudinal HbA1c patterns before first glucose-lowering drug prescription irrespective of type of diabetes.

RESULTS

Among 21,556 individuals initiating diabetes treatment during 2017-2018, 20,733 (96 %) had HbA1c measured (median 4 measurements [IQR 2-7]) in the 5 years preceding treatment initiation. Four classes with distinct HbA1c trajectories were identified, with varying steepness of increase in HbA1c. The largest class (74 % of the individuals) had mean HbA1c above the 48 mmol/mol threshold 9 months before treatment initiation. Mean HbA1c was 52 mmol/mol (95 % CI 52-52) at treatment initiation. In the remaining three classes, mean HbA1c exceeded 48 mmol/mol almost 1.5 years before treatment initiation and reached 79 mmol/mol (95 % CI 78-80), 105 mmol/mol (95 % CI 104-106), and 137 mmol/mol (95 % CI 135-140) before treatment initiation.

CONCLUSION

We identified four distinct longitudinal HbA1c patterns before initiation of diabetes treatment in clinical practice. All had mean HbA1c levels exceeding the diagnostic threshold many months before treatment initiation, indicating therapeutic inertia.

Comparative efficacy and acceptability of different exercise patterns for reducing cardiovascular events in pre-diabetes: protocol for a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

INTRODUCTION

Exercise has been used to reverse dysglycaemic states in patients with pre-diabetes. Systematic reviews show that exercise is an effective way to reduce the incidence of diabetes, but there is conflicting evidence for reducing the occurrence of cardiovascular events. Therefore, we present a systematic review and network meta-analysis protocol designed to compare the effectiveness of different forms of exercise in reducing cardiovascular events and their tolerability in different populations.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will include all randomised controlled trials and compare one exercise intervention to another. We will compare the following exercise patterns: standard endurance training, strength training, high-intensity interval training, mind-body exercise, and mixed strength and aerobic training. The primary outcomes are the occurrence of major cardiovascular events and the rate of patient attrition during the intervention. We will search major English and Chinese databases as well as trial registry websites for published and unpublished studies. All reference selection and data extraction will be conducted by at least two independent reviewers. We will conduct a random effects model to combine effect sizes and use the surface under the cumulative ranking curve and the mean ranks to rank the effectiveness of interventions. All data will be fitted at WinBUGS in a Bayesian framework and correlation graphs will be plotted using StataSE 14. We will also use the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework to evaluate the quality of evidence for the study results.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study does not involve a population-based intervention, and therefore, does not require ethical approval. We will publish the findings of this systematic review in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, and the dataset will be made available free of charge. The completed review will be disseminated electronically in print and on social media, where appropriate.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42023422737.

Relative importance of triglyceride glucose index combined with body mass index in predicting recovery from prediabetic state to normal fasting glucose: a cohort analysis based on a Chinese physical examination population

BACKGROUND

Prediabetes is a high-risk state for diabetes, and numerous studies have shown that the body mass index (BMI) and triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index play significant roles in risk prediction for blood glucose metabolism. This study aims to evaluate the relative importance of BMI combination with TyG index (TyG-BMI) in predicting the recovery from prediabetic status to normal blood glucose levels.

METHODS

A total of 25,397 prediabetic subjects recruited from 32 regions across China. Normal fasting glucose (NFG), prediabetes, and diabetes were defined referring to the American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria. After normalizing the independent variables, the impact of TyG-BMI on the recovery or progression of prediabetes was analyzed through the Cox regression models. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was utilized to visualize and compare the predictive value of TyG-BMI and its constituent components in prediabetes recovery/progression.

RESULTS

During the average observation period of 2.96 years, 10,305 individuals (40.58%) remained in the prediabetic state, 11,278 individuals (44.41%) recovered to NFG, and 3,814 individuals (15.02%) progressed to diabetes. The results of multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that TyG-BMI was negatively associated with recovery from prediabetes to NFG and positively associated with progression from prediabetes to diabetes. Further ROC analysis revealed that TyG-BMI had higher impact and predictive value in predicting prediabetes recovering to NFG or progressing to diabetes in comparison to the TyG index and BMI. Specifically, the TyG-BMI threshold for predicting prediabetes recovery was 214.68, while the threshold for predicting prediabetes progression was 220.27. Additionally, there were significant differences in the relationship of TyG-BMI with prediabetes recovering to NFG or progressing to diabetes within age subgroups. In summary, TyG-BMI is more suitable for assessing prediabetes recovery or progression in younger populations (< 45 years old).

CONCLUSIONS

This study, for the first time, has revealed the significant impact and predictive value of the TyG index in combination with BMI on the recovery from prediabetic status to normal blood glucose levels. From the perspective of prediabetes intervention, maintaining TyG-BMI within the threshold of 214.68 holds crucial significance.

The Semmelweis Study: a longitudinal occupational cohort study within the framework of the Semmelweis Caring University Model Program for supporting healthy aging

The Semmelweis Study is a prospective occupational cohort study that seeks to enroll all employees of Semmelweis University (Budapest, Hungary) aged 25 years and older, with a population of 8866 people, 70.5% of whom are women. The study builds on the successful experiences of the Whitehall II study and aims to investigate the complex relationships between lifestyle, environmental, and occupational risk factors, and the development and progression of chronic age-associated diseases. An important goal of the Semmelweis Study is to identify groups of people who are aging unsuccessfully and therefore have an increased risk of developing age-associated diseases. To achieve this, the study takes a multidisciplinary approach, collecting economic, social, psychological, cognitive, health, and biological data. The Semmelweis Study comprises a baseline data collection with open healthcare data linkage, followed by repeated data collection waves every 5 years. Data are collected through computer-assisted self-completed questionnaires, followed by a physical health examination, physiological measurements, and the assessment of biomarkers. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the Semmelweis Study, including its origin, context, objectives, design, relevance, and expected contributions.

Evaluation of the role of atherogenic index of plasma in the reversion from Prediabetes to normoglycemia or progression to Diabetes: a multi-center retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Atherosclerosis is closely linked with glucose metabolism. We aimed to investigate the role of the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) in the reversal of prediabetes to normal blood glucose levels or its progression to diabetes.

METHODS

This multi-center retrospective cohort study included 15,421 prediabetic participants from 32 regions across 11 cities in China, under the aegis of the Rich Healthcare Group's affiliated medical examination institutions. Throughout the follow-up period, we monitored changes in the glycemic status of these participants, including reversal to normal fasting glucose (NFG), persistence in the prediabetic state, or progression to diabetes. Segmented regression, stratified analysis, and restricted cubic spline (RCS) were performed based on the multivariable Cox regression model to evaluate the association between AIP and the reversal of prediabetes to NFG or progression to diabetes.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 2.9 years, we recorded 6,481 individuals (42.03%) reverting from prediabetes to NFG, and 2,424 individuals (15.72%) progressing to diabetes. After adjusting for confounders, AIP showed a positive correlation with the progression from prediabetes to diabetes [(Hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI):1.24-1.64)] and a negative correlation with the reversion from prediabetes to NFG (HR 0.89, 95%CI:0.81-0.98); further RCS demonstrated a nonlinear relationship between AIP and the reversion from prediabetes to NFG/progression to diabetes, identifying a turning point of 0.04 for reversion to NFG and 0.17 for progression to diabetes. In addition, we observed significant differences in the association between AIP and reversion from prediabetes to NFG/progression to diabetes across age subgroups, specifically indicating that the risk associated with AIP for progression from prediabetes to diabetes was relatively higher in younger populations; likewise, a younger age within the adult group favored the reversion from prediabetes to NFG in relation to AIP.

CONCLUSION

Our study, for the first time, reveals a negative correlation between AIP and the reversion from prediabetes to normoglycemia and validates the crucial role of AIP in the risk assessment of prediabetes progression. Based on threshold analysis, therapeutically, keeping the AIP below 0.04 was of paramount importance for individuals with prediabetes aiming for reversion to NFG; preventatively, maintaining AIP below 0.17 was vital to reduce the risk of diabetes onset for those with prediabetes.

Prediabetes Progression and Regression on Objectively- Measured Physical Function: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGRUOUND

Prediabetes leads to declines in physical function in older adults, but the impact of prediabetes progression or regression on physical function is unknown. This study assessed this longitudinal association, with physical function objectivelymeasured by grip strength, walking speed, and standing balance, based on the Health and Retirement Study enrolling United States adults aged >50 years.

METHODS

Participants with prediabetes were followed-up for 4-year to ascertain prediabetes status alteration (maintained, regressed, or progressed), and another 4-year to assess their impacts on physical function. Weak grip strength was defined as <26 kg for men and <16 kg for women, slow walking speed was as <0.8 m/sec, and poor standing balance was as an uncompleted fulltandem standing testing. Logistic and linear regression analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Of the included 1,511 participants with prediabetes, 700 maintained as prediabetes, 306 progressed to diabetes, and 505 regressed to normoglycemia over 4 years. Grip strength and walking speed were declined from baseline during the 4-year followup, regardless of prediabetes status alteration. Compared with prediabetes maintenance, prediabetes progression increased the odds of developing weak grip strength by 89% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.04 to 2.44) and exhibited larger declines in grip strength by 0.85 kg (95% CI, -1.65 to -0.04). However, prediabetes progression was not related to impairments in walking speed or standing balance. Prediabetes regression also did not affect any measures of physical function.

CONCLUSION

Prediabetes progression accelerates grip strength decline in aging population, while prediabetes regression may not prevent physical function decline due to aging.

Prediabetes is Associated with Worse Long-Term Outcomes in Young Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

Purpose

The incidence of prediabetes mellitus (pre-DM) is increasing among young individuals. Whether pre-DM can predict adverse cardiovascular events in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients remains controversial. This study aimed to investigate the impact of pre-DM on the long-term clinical outcomes of patients aged≤ 45 years with new-onset ACS.

Patients and methods

A total of 1113 patients with new-onset ACS (aged≤ 45 years) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were enrolled in this study. Patients were divided into three groups according to their glycemic status or history: normal glucose metabolism (NGM), prediabetes (pre-DM), and diabetes mellitus (DM). The primary endpoint was defined as a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) including all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or unplanned repeat revascularization. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to explore the association between abnormal glycemic status and MACE.

Results

The prevalence of NGM, pre-DM, and DM were 45.9% (n=511), 27.0% (n=301), and 27.0% (n=301), respectively. During a median follow-up of 65 months, MACE occurred in 23.5% (n=120) of NGM, 29.2% (n=88) of pre-DM, and 34.6% (n=104) of DM (P=0.003). After multivariate adjustment, both pre-DM and DM significantly increased the risk of MACE compared with the NGM group (pre-DM: HR1.38, CI95% 1.05-1.83, P=0.023; DM: HR1.65, CI95% 1.27-2.16, P<0.001). Moreover, pre-DM had a similar impact on MACE as DM in young patients with ACS (P=0.162).

Conclusion

Pre-DM was common among patients aged≤ 45 years with new-onset ACS. Pre-DM was associated with an increased risk of future MACE compared to NGM.

Progression from different blood glucose states to cardiovascular diseases: a prospective study based on multi-state model

AIMS

To quantify the trajectories from normoglycaemia to pre-diabetes, subsequently to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and cardiovascular death, and the effects of risk factors on the rates of transition.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from the Jinchang Cohort of 42 585 adults aged 20-88 free of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke at baseline. A multistate model was applied for analysing the progression of CVD and its relation to various risk factors. During a median follow-up of 7 years, 7498 participants developed pre-diabetes, 2307 developed T2DM, 2499 developed CVD, and 324 died from CVD. Among 15 postulated transitions, transition from comorbid CHD and stroke to cardiovascular death had the highest rate (157.21/1000 person-years), followed by transition from stroke alone to cardiovascular death (69.31/1000 person-years) and transition from pre-diabetes to normoglycaemia (46.51/1000 person-years). Pre-diabetes had a sojourn time of 6.77 years, and controlling weight, blood lipids, blood pressure, and uric acid within normal limits may promote reversion to normoglycaemia. Among transitions to CHD alone and stroke alone, transition from T2DM had the highest rate (12.21/1000 and 12.16/1000 person-years), followed by transition from pre-diabetes (6.81/1000 and 4.93/1000 person-years) and normoglycaemia (3.28/1000 and 2.39/1000 person-years). Age and hypertension were associated with an accelerated rate for most transitions. Overweight/obesity, smoking, dyslipidaemia, and hyperuricaemia played crucial but different roles in transitions.

CONCLUSION

Pre-diabetes was the optimal intervention stage in the disease trajectory. The derived transition rates, sojourn time, and influence factors could provide scientific support for the primary prevention of both T2DM and CVD.

Astaxanthin, a natural antioxidant, lowers cholesterol and markers of cardiovascular risk in individuals with prediabetes and dyslipidaemia

AIM

To determine the effects of astaxanthin treatment on lipids, cardiovascular disease (CVD) markers, glucose tolerance, insulin action and inflammation in individuals with prediabetes and dyslipidaemia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Adult participants with dyslipidaemia and prediabetes (n = 34) underwent baseline blood draw, an oral glucose tolerance test and a one-step hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp. They were then randomized (n = 22 treated, 12 placebo) to receive astaxanthin 12 mg daily or placebo for 24 weeks. Baseline studies were repeated after 12 and 24 weeks of therapy.

RESULTS

After 24 weeks, astaxanthin treatment significantly decreased low-density lipoprotein (-0.33 ± 0.11 mM) and total cholesterol (-0.30 ± 0.14 mM) (both P < .05). Astaxanthin also reduced levels of the CVD risk markers fibrinogen (-473 ± 210 ng/mL), L-selectin (-0.08 ± 0.03 ng/mL) and fetuin-A (-10.3 ± 3.6 ng/mL) (all P < .05). While the effects of astaxanthin treatment did not reach statistical significance, there were trends toward improvements in the primary outcome measure, insulin-stimulated, whole-body glucose disposal (+0.52 ± 0.37 mg/m2 /min, P = .078), as well as fasting [insulin] (-5.6 ± 8.4 pM, P = .097) and HOMA2-IR (-0.31 ± 0.16, P = .060), suggesting improved insulin action. No consistent significant differences from baseline were observed for any of these outcomes in the placebo group. Astaxanthin was safe and well tolerated with no clinically significant adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the primary endpoint did not meet the prespecified significance level, these data suggest that astaxanthin is a safe over-the-counter supplement that improves lipid profiles and markers of CVD risk in individuals with prediabetes and dyslipidaemia.

Associations of obesity-related indices with prediabetes regression to normoglycemia among Chinese middle-aged and older adults: a prospective study

Background

Prediabetes is associated with increased cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality, while its regression will decrease the risks. This study investigated the associations of six obesity-related indices (waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), body roundness index (BRI), conicity index (CI), body shape index (ABSI), Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI), and triglyceride glucose (TyG) index) with prediabetes regression based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), enrolling middle-aged and older adults.

Methods

We included 2,601 participants with prediabetes from CHARLS, who were followed up from 2011-2012 to 2015-2016, with blood samples collected for measuring fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c. All the obesity-related indices at baseline and their dynamic changes were calculated and categorized into tertiles. Logistic regression analysis was applied to obtain the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Attributable fractions (AFs) and 95% CIs of these indices and the dynamic changes were calculated with the AF package in R software, and the cutoff values of initial obesity-related indices were obtained by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

Results

During the 4-year follow-up period, 562 (21.61%) participants regressed from prediabetes to normoglycemia. They had lower initial BRI, WHtR, CI, ABSI, CVAI, and TyG than those who did not (P < 0.05). After multivariable adjustment, participants in the first tertile of initial BRI (OR, 1.45, 95%CIs, 1.09-1.93), WHtR (OR, 1.46, 95%CIs, 1.10-1.95), and CVAI (OR, 1.47, 95%CIs, 1.11-1.93) had increased odds of prediabetes regression compared with those in the highest tertile. Participants with decreased TyG (OR, 2.08; 95%CIs, 1.61-2.70) also had increased odds of prediabetes regression compared with those with increased TyG. The cutoff values of initial obesity-related indices were 4.374 for BRI, 0.568 for WHtR, 8.621 for TyG, 1.320 for CI, 0.083 for ABSI, and 106.152 for CVAI, respectively. The AFs were 21.10% for BRI < 4.374, 20.85% for WHtR < 0.568, 17.48% for CVAI < 107.794, and 17.55% for ΔTyG < 0, respectively.

Conclusion

Low initial BRI, WHtR, and CVAI, as well as TyG reduction, were significantly related to prediabetes regression to normoglycemia, and the AFs were around 20%. Less abdominal fat and insulin resistance reduction would benefit future health outcomes among people with prediabetes.

Data-driven subgroups of prediabetes and the associations with outcomes in Chinese adults

Prediabetes and its pathophysiology remain important issues. We aimed to examine the cluster characteristics of prediabetes and explore their associations with developing diabetes and its complications based on 12 variables representing body fat, glycemic measures, pancreatic β cell function, insulin resistance, blood lipids, and liver enzymes. A total of 55,777 individuals with prediabetes from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort (4C) were classified at baseline into six clusters. During a median of 3.1 years of follow-up, significant differences in the risks of diabetes and its complications between clusters were observed. The odds ratios of diabetes stepwisely increase from cluster 1 to cluster 6. Clusters 1, 4, and 6 have increased chronic kidney diseases risks, while the prediabetes in cluster 4, characterized by obesity and insulin resistance, confers higher risks of cardiovascular diseases compared with others. This subcategorization has potential value in developing more precise strategies for targeted prediabetes prevention and treatment.

Lower-than-normal glycemic levels to achieve optimal reduction of diabetes risk among individuals with prediabetes: A prospective cohort study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

To determine whether lower than currently accepted glycemic levels could lead to optimal risk reduction of incident diabetes among individuals with prediabetes.

METHODS

We enrolled 9903 individuals with prediabetes and 16,902 individuals with normoglycemia from a prospective cohort participating health check-ups between 2006 and 2017. While classifying fasting glucose into <5.0, 5.0-5.5, and 5.6-6.9 mmol/L and postprandial glucose into <6.7, 6.7-7.7, and 7.8-11.0 mmol/L, we grouped fasting/postprandial glucose into five categories (<5.0/<6.7, <5.0/6.7-7.7, 5.0-5.5/<6.7, 5.0-5.5/6.7-7.7 mmol/L, 5.6-6.9/7.8-11.0 mmol/L). The primary outcome was incident diabetes.

RESULTS

In individuals with prediabetes, the presence of a baseline fasting glucose <5.0 mmol/L or a postprandial glucose <6.7 mmol/L led to a greater risk reduction of incident diabetes with hazard ratios of 0.34 (95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.42) and 0.47 (0.41-0.54), respectively, relative to a fasting glucose 5.6-6.9 mmol/L and a postprandial glucose 7.8-11.0 mmol/L. For individuals with prediabetes having fasting/postprandial glucose <5.0/<6.7 mmol/L, the incidence of 6.4 (4.7-8.8) per 1000 person-years corresponded to that of 5.8 (4.2-8.0) per 1000 person-years for individuals with normoglycemia having 5.0-5.5/6.7-7.7 mmol/L.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Given that lower-than-normal glycemic levels were plausible for optimal risk reduction of diabetes, stringent glycemic management could be beneficial for diabetes prevention among individuals with prediabetes.

Associations Between Modifiable Risk Factors and Changes in Glycemic Status Among Individuals With Prediabetes

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations between modifiable risk factors and glycemic status changes in individuals with prediabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 10,358 individuals with prediabetes defined by their fasting blood glucose and HbA1c levels from the Health Examinees-Gem study were included in the present study. Modifiable factors, including BMI, abdominal obesity, smoking status, physical activity, alcohol consumption, diet quality, hypertension, and dyslipidemia, were examined to determine their associations with changes in glycemic status during follow-up. In addition, modifiable-factor scores were calculated, and their association with changes in glycemic status was also analyzed.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time for this study was 4 years (range, 1-7 years). BMI ≥25 kg/m2 (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.71 [95% CI 0.63-0.79]), abdominal obesity (OR 0.76 [95% CI 0.68-0.86]), heavy drinking (OR 0.74 [95% CI 0.60-0.91]), hypertension (OR 0.71 [95% CI 0.64-0.79]), and dyslipidemia (OR 0.78 [95% CI 0.70-0.85]) were associated with a lower possibility of normoglycemia reversion. BMI ≥25 kg/m2 (OR 1.58 [95% CI 1.29-1.94]), abdominal obesity (OR 1.31 [95% CI 1.11-1.55]), current smoking (OR 1.43 [95% CI 1.07-1.91]), and hypertension (OR 1.26 [95% CI 1.07-1.49]) were associated with a higher probability of type 2 diabetes progression. Having more favorable modifiable factors was also associated with normoglycemia reversion (OR 1.46 [95% CI 1.30-1.64]) and type 2 diabetes progression (OR 0.62 [95% CI 0.49-0.77]).

CONCLUSIONS

More favorable modifiable factors were related to a higher probability of returning to normoglycemia and a lower probability of progression to type 2 diabetes.

Identifying risk factors of developing type 2 diabetes from an adult population with initial prediabetes using a Bayesian network

Background

It is known that people with prediabetes increase their risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D), which constitutes a global public health concern, and it is associated with other diseases such as cardiovascular disease.

Methods

This study aimed to determine those factors with high influence in the development of T2D once prediabetes has been diagnosed, through a Bayesian network (BN), which can help to prevent T2D. Furthermore, the set of features with the strongest influences on T2D can be determined through the Markov blanket. A BN model for T2D was built from a dataset composed of 12 relevant features of the T2D domain, determining the dependencies and conditional independencies from empirical data in a multivariate context. The structure and parameters were learned with the bnlearn package in R language introducing prior knowledge. The Markov blanket was considered to find those features (variables) which increase the risk of T2D.

Results

The BN model established the different relationships among features (variables). Through inference, a high estimated probability value of T2D was obtained when the body mass index (BMI) was instantiated to obesity value, the glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to more than 6 value, the fatty liver index (FLI) to more than 60 value, physical activity (PA) to no state, and age to 48-62 state. The features increasing T2D in specific states (warning factors) were ranked.

Conclusion

The feasibility of BNs in epidemiological studies is shown, in particular, when data from T2D risk factors are considered. BNs allow us to order the features which influence the most the development of T2D. The proposed BN model might be used as a general tool for prevention, that is, to improve the prognosis.

Persistence or regression of prediabetes and coronary artery calcification among adults without diabetes

OBJECTIVE

The effect of changes in glycemic status on subclinical atherosclerosis is uncertain. We assessed the association of persistence, regression, or progression of prediabetes with coronary artery calcium score (CACS) as a measure of subclinical atherosclerosis.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study, comprising 126 765 adults, and longitudinal sub-study, comprising 40 622 adults (with baseline and at least 1 follow-up computed tomography scan to assess changes in CACS), were undertaken.

METHODS

Changes in glycemic status over 1.5 years (interquartile range, 1.0-2.0) before the first CACS assessment were categorized according to 6 groups: persistent normoglycemia (reference), normoglycemia to prediabetes, normoglycemia to diabetes, prediabetes to normoglycemia, persistent prediabetes, and prediabetes to diabetes. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for prevalent coronary artery calcification (CAC). Mixed models with random intercepts and random slopes were used to estimate 5-year CAC progression rates.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age was 41.3 (7.0) years (74.7% male) (n = 126 765). Multivariable-adjusted OR for prevalent CAC was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.08-1.18) for persistent prediabetes, 1.05 (0.98-1.12) for regression to normoglycemia, and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.27-1.67) for progression from prediabetes to diabetes, compared with persistent normoglycemia. Coronary artery calcification progression increased significantly in all prediabetes groups. Multivariable-adjusted ratio of 5-year CAC progression rates was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.16-1.22) (persistent prediabetes), 1.11 (1.07-1.14) (regression to normoglycemia), and 1.63 (95% CI, 1.26-2.10) (progression from prediabetes to diabetes).

CONCLUSIONS

Unfavorable changes in glycemic status, including persistence of prediabetes or progression to diabetes from prediabetes, were associated with increased risk of CAC.

Relationship between BMI and risk of impaired glucose tolerance and impaired fasting glucose in Chinese adults: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Current studies in most Western countries have largely focused on body mass index (BMI) as an important risk factor for impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG), which have different pathophysiological bases. In people with obesity, the prevalence of IGT is higher and the prevalence of IFG is lower. The prevalence of IGT in the Asian population is higher than that in the white population, and the obesity rate in China is still increasing. However, few cohort studies explore the relationship between BMI and the incidence of IGT and IFG in China. We aimed to explore the relationship between BMI and the risk of IGT and IFG in Chinese adults and analyze the differences between them.

METHODS

The baseline data were obtained from the 2010 China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance, of which 20 surveillance sites were followed up from 2016 to 2017. Finally, in this study, a total of 5,578 studies were grouped into BMI categories of underweight (BMI < 18.5 kg/m²), normal weight (18.5-23.9 kg/m²), overweight (24.0-27.9 kg/m²), and obesity (≥ 28.0 kg/m²). We used the unconditional logistic regression model to analyze the relationship between BMI and the risk of IGT and IFG.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up of 6.4 years, 562 developed IGT and 257 developed IFG. After age, gender, urban and rural areas, physical activity, family history of diabetes, hypertension, abdominal obesity, dyslipidemia, and other factors were adjusted, overweight increased the risk of IGT by 35% [odds ratio (OR) 1.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.70], and obesity increased the risk of IGT by 77% (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.27-1.47). After the factors consistent with the above were adjusted, only obesity increased the risk of IFG by 122% (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.39-3.54).

CONCLUSIONS

In China, obesity is an important risk factor for IGT and IFG, and the risk of IGT increases during the overweight stage.

Prediabetes Is Associated With Increased Risk of Heart Failure Among Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between prediabetes and heart failure (HF) and the association of HF with changes in glycemic status.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Patients newly diagnosed with atrial fibrillation (AF) between 2015 and 2018 were divided into three groups (normoglycemia, prediabetes, and type 2 diabetes) according to their baseline glycemic status. The primary outcome was incident HF. The Fine and Gray competing risks model was applied, with death defined as the competing event.

RESULTS

Among 17,943 patients with AF (mean age 75.5 years, 47% female), 3,711 (20.7%) had prediabetes, and 10,127 (56.4%) had diabetes at baseline. Over a median follow-up of 4.7 years, HF developed in 518 (14%) patients with normoglycemia, 646 (15.7%) with prediabetes, and 1,795 (17.7%) with diabetes. Prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of HF compared with normoglycemia (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 1.12, 95% CI 1.03-1.22). In patients with prediabetes at baseline, 403 (11.1%) progressed to diabetes, and 311 (8.6%) reversed to normoglycemia at 2 years. Compared with remaining prediabetic, progression to diabetes was associated with an increased risk of HF (SHR 1.50, 95% CI 1.13-1.97), whereas reversion to normoglycemia was associated with a decreased risk (SHR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Prediabetes was associated with an increased risk of HF in patients with AF. Compared with patients who remained prediabetic, those who progressed to diabetes at 2 years experienced an increased risk of HF, whereas those who reversed to normoglycemia incurred a lower risk of HF.

Changes in Fasting plasma glucose status and risk of mortality events in individuals without diabetes over two decades of Follow-up: a pooled cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

We aimed to assess the gender-specific impact of 3-year changes in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) status on the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular (CV), and cancer mortality in individuals without type 2 diabetes (T2DM) during an 18-year follow-up.

METHODS

The study population included 14,378 participants aged 30-60 years (8272 women) from three population-based cohort studies, including Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Subjects were classified into six categories based on the approximately three-year changes in FPG status: (1) normal FPG (NFG) to NFG (reference category); (2) NFG to impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (i.e., 126 > FPG ≥ 100 mg/dl); (3) NFG to T2DM; (4) IFG to NFG; (5) IFG to IFG; (6) IFG to T2DM. Multivariable stratified Cox regression, adjusting for age, body mass index (BMI), BMI-Change, smoking status, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs (95% CI)) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality events. Women-to-men ratios of HRs (RHRs) for each category were also estimated.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 2,362 all-cause mortality events were recorded. Among women, all categories of FPG change, excluding IFG-NFG (HR, 95%CI 1.24 (0.98-1.57), p = 0.07), were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to the NFG-NFG category. Moreover, women in IFG-T2DM group were at increased risk for CV mortality (2.21 (1.42-3.44)). We also found that women in NFG-IFG (1.52 (1.20-1.91)), NFG-T2DM (2.90 (1.52-5.51)), and IFG-IFG (1.30 (1.02-1.66)) categories had a higher risk for cancer mortality. However, among men, a higher risk of all-cause mortality was found for only two groups of NFG-T2DM (1.78 (1.15-2.74)) and IFG-T2DM (1.34 (1.04-1.72)). Women with IFG-IFG had a 24% higher risk for all-cause mortality events than their men counterparts (RHR; 1.24 (1.01-1.54)). After further adjustment for physical activity, results were in line with the main findings, excluding T2DM up to six years after the measurement period and early mortality events.

CONCLUSION

In women, the IFG status, whether as incident, persistent, or converted to T2DM, had a higher risk for mortality events; however, among men, only conversion to T2DM conferred an excess risk of all-cause mortality.

Determinants of the progression to type 2 diabetes and regression to normoglycemia in people with pre-diabetes: A population-based cohort study over ten years

AIMS

To determine the rates and predictors of the regression to normoglycemia and progression to diabetes among subjects with pre-diabetes.

METHODS

A 10-year longitudinal population-based study was conducted among 1329 participants with pre-diabetes in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. Pre-diabetes was divided into isolated IFG (iIFG), isolated IGT (iIGT), and combined IFG/IGT. Univariate and stepwise multivariable Cox regression was used to evaluate predictors of glycemic conversions.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidences of normoglycemia and diabetes were 43.7% (95%CI 40.9-46.4) and 40.1% (37.3-42.7), respectively. Isolated IGT returned to normoglycemia more than iIFG (HR:1.26, 1.05-1.51), but there was no difference in how quickly they progressed to diabetes. Regression to normoglycemia was associated with younger age, female sex, lower BMI, no familial history of diabetes, higher HDL-C, and ex-smoking. Older age, higher BMI, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, lower HDL-C, and familial history for diabetes were associated with progression to diabetes. The influence of BMI on glycemic status conversions diminished with age. At approximately above 60 years old, the hazards of BMI for any conversions faded out.

CONCLUSIONS

The modifiable predictors of regression to normoglycemia and progression to diabetes are roughly the same. The importance of BMI attenuates in elderly subjects.

Non-medicalization of medical science: Rationalization for future

As we delve into the intricacies of human disease, millions of people continue to be diagnosed as having what are labelled as pre-conditions or sub-clinical entities and may receive treatments designed to prevent further progression to clinical disease, but with debatable impact and consequences. Endocrinology is no different, with almost every organ system and associated diseases having subclinical entities. Although the expansion of these “grey” pre-conditions and their treatments come with a better understanding of pathophysiologic processes, they also entail financial costs and drug adverse-effects, and lack true prevention, thus refuting the very foundation of Medicine laid by Hippocrates “Primum non nocere” (Latin), i.e., do no harm. Subclinical hypothyroidism, prediabetes, osteopenia, and minimal autonomous cortisol excess are some of the endocrine pre-clinical conditions which do not require active pharmacological management in the vast majority. In fact, progression to clinical disease is seen in only a small minority with reversal to normality in most. Giving drugs also does not lead to true prevention by changing the course of future disease. The goal of the medical fraternity thus as a whole should be to bring this large chunk of humanity out of the hospitals towards leading a healthy lifestyle and away from the label of a medical disease condition.

Development of a 5-year risk prediction model for type 2 diabetes in individuals with incident HbA1c-defined pre-diabetes in Denmark

INTRODUCTION

Pre-diabetes increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, but data are sparse on predictors in a population-based clinical setting. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models for 5-year risks of progressing to type 2 diabetes among individuals with incident HbA1c-defined pre-diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used data from the Danish National Health Survey (DNHS; n=486 495), linked to healthcare registries and nationwide laboratory data in 2012-2018. We included individuals with a first HbA1c value of 42-47 mmol/mol (6.0%-6.4%), without prior indications of diabetes. To estimate individual 5-year cumulative incidences of type 2 diabetes (HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%)), Fine-Gray survival models were fitted in random 80% development samples and validated in 20% validation samples. Potential predictors were HbA1c, demographics, prescriptions, comorbidities, socioeconomic factors, and self-rated lifestyle.

RESULTS

Among 335 297 (68.9%) participants in DNHS with HbA1c measurements, 26 007 had pre-diabetes and were included in the study. Median HbA1c was 43.0 mmol/mol (IQR 42.0-44.0 mmol/mol, 6.1% (IQR 6.0%-6.2%)), median age was 69.6 years (IQR 61.0-77.1 years), and 51.9% were women. During a median follow-up of 2.7 years, 11.8% progressed to type 2 diabetes and 10.1% died. The final prediction model included HbA1c, age, sex, body mass index (BMI), any antihypertensive drug use, pancreatic disease, cancer, self-reported diet, doctor's advice to lose weight or change dietary habits, having someone to talk to, and self-rated health. In the validation sample, the 5-year area under the curve was 72.7 (95% CI 71.2 to 74.3), and the model was well calibrated.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to well-known pre-diabetes predictors such as age, sex, and BMI, we found that measures of self-rated lifestyle, health, and social support are important and modifiable predictors for diabetes. Our model had an acceptable discriminative ability and was well calibrated.

Long-term risks for cardiovascular disease and mortality across the glycaemic spectrum in a male-predominant Chinese cohort aged 75 years or older: the Kailuan study

BACKGROUND

Ageing and diabetes are growing global health burdens. The current understanding of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality risk across the glycaemic spectrum in older populations is limited.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to characterise CVD and all-cause mortality risk across the glycaemic spectrum among Chinese adults aged 75 years or older in a community-based setting over10 years.

METHODS

The 3,989 adults in the Kailuan Study were aged over 75 years (median age was 79 years [interquartile range: 76-82]; 2,785 normoglycaemic, 691 prediabetic and 513 diabetic, determined by fasting blood glucose levels) at baseline, predominantly male (92.9% male) and followed until December 2019. Time-varying Cox regression and competing-risk models were used to examine the hazard ratio (HR) of incident CVD and mortality across the glycaemic exposures.

RESULTS

During median follow-up of 11.3 years, 433 first CVD and 2,222 deaths were recorded. Compared with normoglycaemia, multivariable-adjusted models revealed the following: (i) prediabetes was not associated with future risks for CVD (HR: 1.17; 95% CI 0.82-1.69) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.06; 95% CI 0.70-1.60); (ii) diabetes-associated enhanced risks for CVD and all-cause mortality were mainly confined to those exhibiting low-grade inflammation (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ≥2.0 mg/L) levels. The results were consistent after multiple sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Among a male-predominant Chinese population aged 75 years or older, compared with normoglycaemic participants, prediabetes was not associated with an enhanced 10-year CVD and all-cause mortality risk, and diabetes-associated enhanced 10-year risk was mainly confined to individuals exhibiting low-grade inflammation.

Muscle strength and prediabetes progression and regression in middle-aged and older adults: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Prediabetes progression is associated with increased mortality while its regression decreases it. It is unclear whether muscle strength is related to prediabetes progression or regression. This study investigated the associations of muscle strength, assessed by grip strength and chair-rising time, with prediabetes progression and regression based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) enrolling middle-aged and older adults.

METHODS

We included 2623 participants with prediabetes from CHARLS, who were followed up 4 years later with blood samples collected for measuring fasting plasma glucose and haemoglobin A1c. Grip strength (normalized by body weight) and chair-rising time were assessed at baseline and categorized into tertiles (low, middle, and high groups). Prediabetes at baseline and follow-up was defined primarily using the American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria and secondarily using the World Health Organization (WHO) and International Expert Committee (IEC) criteria. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was applied to obtain the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The mean age of included participants was 59.0 ± 8.6 years, and 46.6% of them were males. During follow-up, 1646 participants remained as prediabetes, 379 progressed to diabetes, and 598 regressed to normoglycaemia based on ADA criteria. Participants who progressed to diabetes had lower normalized grip strength than those who remained as prediabetes (0.49 ± 0.15 vs. 0.53 ± 0.15, P < 0.001), but participants who regressed to normoglycaemia showed the opposite (0.55 ± 0.16 vs. 0.53 ± 0.15, P = 0.003). However, chair-rising time was comparable across different groups (P_overall  = 0.17). Compared with participants in low normalized grip strength or high chair-rising time group, those in high normalized grip strength or low chair-rising time group had decreased odds of progression to diabetes (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.87; and OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.93, respectively) after multivariable adjustment. However, both were unrelated to the odds of regression to normoglycaemia (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.25; and OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.07, respectively). These outcomes remained generally comparable when prediabetes was defined by WHO or IEC criteria. Higher normalized grip strength but not lower chair-rising time was prospectively associated with lower blood pressure, better glycaemic condition, and lower inflammation (all P ≤ 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

High muscle strength is associated with reduced odds of progression to diabetes but does not predict regression to normoglycaemia in prediabetes. Future studies are warranted to assess whether increases in muscle strength promote prediabetes regression.

Historical review of the diagnosis of prediabetes/intermediate hyperglycemia: Case for the international criteria

In 1997, the ADA recommended an IFG criterion for diagnosing prediabetes/intermediate hyperglycemia of FPG concentrations of 6.1-6.9 mmol/L (110-125 mg/dL). In 2003, they lowered it to 5.6-6.9 mmol/L (100-125 mg/dL) to equalize developing diabetes between IGT and IFG. International organizations accepted the first IFG criterion but not the second. The ADA subsequently recommended HbA1c levels for diagnosing prediabetes/intermediate hyperglycemia of 39-47 mmol/mol (5.7-6.4%) based on a model that utilized the composite risk of developing diabetes and CVD. However, the evidence that the intermediate hyperglycemia that defines prediabetes is independently associated with CVD is weak. Rather, the other risk factors for CVD in the metabolic syndrome are responsible. The WHO opined that prediabetes/intermediate hyperglycemia could not be diagnosed by HbA1c levels but the Canadians and Europeans recommended its diagnosis by values of 42-47 mmol/mol (6.0-6.4%). With the ADA criteria, approximately one-half of people are normal on re-testing, one-third spontaneously revert to normal over time and two-thirds never develop diabetes in their lifetimes. The international criteria for prediabetes/intermediate hyperglycemia increase the risk of developing diabetes and might motivate these individuals to more seriously undertake lifestyle interventions as a preventive measure.

Outcome of lifestyle intervention in relation to duration of pre-diabetes: the Pathobiology and Reversibility of Prediabetes in a Biracial Cohort (PROP-ABC) study

INTRODUCTION

In studies that enrolled people with prevalent pre-diabetes of unknown duration, lifestyle intervention (LI) delayed progression to type 2 diabetes (T2D) but did not reverse pre-diabetes in most participants. Here, we assessed the effects of LI among individuals with pre-diabetes of known duration to determine whether outcomes are related to duration of pre-diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The Pathobiology and Reversibility of Prediabetes in a Biracial Cohort study initiated LI in subjects with incident pre-diabetes during follow-up of initially normoglycemic African Americans and European Americans with parental T2D. Participants were stratified into those initiating LI after <3, 3-5, or >5 years of pre-diabetes diagnosis. Assessments included anthropometry, body fat, fasting and 2-hour plasma glucose (FPG, 2hPG), and insulin sensitivity and secretion. The outcomes were normal glucose regulation (NGR; ie, normal FPG and 2hPG), persistent pre-diabetes, or T2D. Participants who maintained normal FPG and normal 2hPG levels during follow-up served as the control. The control subjects did not receive lifestyle or other intervention to alter the course of glycemia or body weight.

RESULTS

Of 223 participants (age 53.3±9.28 years, body mass index 30.6±6.70 kg/m²), 72 (control) maintained normoglycemia during follow-up and 138 subjects with incident pre-diabetes initiated LI after 4.08±2.02 years (range 3 months-8.3 years) of diagnosis. Compared with control, LI participants showed decrease in glucose, weight, and body fat; 42.8% reverted to NGR, 50% had persistent pre-diabetes, and 7.2% developed T2D after 5 years. These outcomes were similar across race and pre-diabetes duration strata, but greater glycemic decrease occurred when LI was initiated within 5 years of pre-diabetes diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Ninety-three per cent of adults with parental T2D who initiated LI within 3 months to 8.3 years of developing pre-diabetes did not progress to T2D; nearly half reverted to NGR.Trial registration number NCT02027571.

Postload Plasma Glucose but Not Fasting Plasma Glucose Had a Greater Predictive Value for Cardiovascular Disease in a Large Prospective Cohort Study in Southwest China

BACKGROUND

Uncertainty remains regarding the relevance of glycemia, though below the threshold for diabetes, for the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among the Southwest Chinese. We aimed to examine the associations of the first-onset CVD with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-h postload glucose (2h-PG) in Southwest China.

METHODS

The current study examined data from the Guizhou Population Health Cohort Study (GPHCS) of 9,280 participants aged 18 to 95 years recruited from 12 areas since 2010 in Guizhou Province, Southwest China. Participants were followed-up until December, 2020. Primary outcomes were the first onset of a composite of or one of major CVD events, including ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke and myocardial infarction. FPG, 2h-PG, other metabolic factors and some demographic factors were collected at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the risk of CVD associated with FPG and 2h-PG. Sensitive analysis and stratified analysis were conducted among participants across different modifiable risk factors and demographic features.

RESULTS

During a median of 6.58 years of follow-up, of 7,593 participants with available data for analysis, 174 experienced at least one CVD events, 158 developed stroke (including 126 ischemic stroke and 39 Ischemic stroke events), and 24 developed myocardial infarction. The risk of major CVD events was significantly increased with elevated 2h-PG but not FPG. Compared with participants in the lowest tertile of 2h-PG, those in the highest tertile had a 1.87-fold (95%CI: 1.26-2.77) increased risk for overall CVD, a 1.82-fold (95%CI: 1.20-2.75) increased risk for overall Stroke, and a 1.82-fold (95%CI: 1.20-2.75) increased risk for ischemic stroke, respectively, after adjustment for age, sex, smoking, ethnic group, education level, systolic blood pressure (SBP), triglycerides (TG), body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC). However, there was no relation of glycemia of haemorrhagic stroke or myocardial infarction (P > 0.05). The effect sizes in the associations of CVD with 2h-PG become enhanced among those within normal range of glycemia, SBP, TG, BMI, as well as those without hypertension, dyslipidemia.and obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

2h-PG, in contrast to FPG, is a significant indicator in predication of CVD in Southwest Chinese. Elevated 2h-PG, though below the below the threshold for diabetes, remains independently increased the risk of CVD.

Association of Mixed Use of Electronic and Conventional Cigarettes and Exposure to Secondhand Smoke With Prediabetes

CONTEXT

Despite previous studies regarding the association between smoking and diabetes, the effects of electronic cigarettes and secondhand smoke (SHS) on glucose metabolism and insulin sensitivity have not been fully elucidated.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of mixed electronic and conventional cigarette use and exposure to SHS with prediabetes.

DESIGN

Data from the 2014-2018 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed.

SETTING

Nationwide population-based.

PARTICIPANTS

Of 39 199 participants, 22 385 participants (9490 men, 12 895 women) without diabetes were included. The main independent variables were smoking behaviors, including exposure to SHS.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prediabetes (hemoglobin A1C of 5.7-6.4%).

RESULTS

Of 22 385 participants without diabetes, 6735 had prediabetes. Mixed cigarette use was associated with a 1.57-fold increase in the odds of prediabetes when compared with never-smoking [odds ratio (OR) = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.29-1.92] and a 1.27-fold increase when compared with conventional cigarette use only (OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.07-1.52). Participants who were current nonsmokers, but mixed users in the past had an increased risk of prediabetes (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.04-2.13). There was no significant association between prediabetes and current nonsmoking in individuals with previous conventional cigarette use only. Among never-smokers, exposure to SHS significantly increased the risk of prediabetes (OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.04-1.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Mixed use of electronic and conventional cigarettes and exposure to SHS increased the risk of prediabetes. Further studies are required to comprehensively investigate the molecular biology underlying the effects of previous and current mixed use of electronic cigarettes and SHS on glucose metabolism.

22-year trends in dysglycemia and body mass index: A population-based cohort study in Savitaipale, Finland

AIMS

We describe a 22-year prospective observational population-based study that determined the prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and intermediate hyperglycaemia (IH), obesity, hypertension, and disorders of lipid metabolism in a middle-age population in the Finnish municipality of Savitaipale.

METHODS

1151 people participated in the baseline survey in 1996-1999, following two follow-up examinations, in 2007-2008 and 2018-2019. Follow-up studies comprised clinical measurements, 2-h oral glucose tolerance test and other biochemistry, questionnaires, and registry data.

RESULTS

The prevalence of T2D quadrupled to 27% and the proportion of normoglycemic people decreased from 73% to 44% while IH increased only slightly during the 22-year follow-up. A large proportion of people who died between the surveys were diabetic. The mean body mass index (BMI) did not, whereas mean waist circumference increased significantly, by 5-6 cm (P = 0.001) during the 22 years. Systolic blood pressure increased by 13-15 mmHg from baseline (P = 0.0001) but diastolic blood pressure did not. The mean plasma levels of total and LDL-cholesterol decreased 10.8% and 8.9% in women (P = 0.001), 21.5% and 22.2% in men (P = 0.001), respectively, while HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides remained stable. The proportion of those achieving targets in the treatment of dyslipidaemia increased significantly (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this 22-year prospective follow-up study of in middle-aged Europeans with high participation rates, the progression of dysglycaemia to overt diabetes with aging was rapid, even without a significant change in BMI.

Phenotyping the Prediabetic Population-A Closer Look at Intermediate Glucose Status and Cardiovascular Disease

Even though the new thresholds for defining prediabetes have been around for more than ten years, there is still controversy surrounding the precise characterization of this intermediate glucose metabolism status. The risk of developing diabetes and macro and microvascular disease linked to prediabetes is well known. Still, the prediabetic population is far from being homogenous, and phenotyping it into less heterogeneous groups might prove useful for long-term risk assessment, follow-up, and primary prevention. Unfortunately, the current definition of prediabetes is quite rigid and disregards the underlying pathophysiologic mechanisms and their potential metabolic progression towards overt disease. In addition, prediabetes is commonly associated with a cluster of risk factors that worsen the prognosis. These risk factors all revolve around a common denominator: inflammation. This review focuses on identifying the population that needs to be screened for prediabetes and the already declared prediabetic patients who are at a higher risk of cardiovascular disease and require closer monitoring.

Utility of Fatty Liver Index to predict reversion to normoglycemia in people with prediabetes

Background

Fatty Liver Index (FLI) is strongly associated with changes in glycemic status and incident Type 2 Diabetes (T2D). The probability of reverting to normoglycemia from a state prediabetes could be determined by FLI, however such relationship remains poorly understood.

Aim

To determine the clinical interest of using FLI to estimate prediabetes reversion at 5 years in patients with impaired fasting plasma glucose at baseline, and identify those factors associated with changes in FLI, that could contribute to the reversion of prediabetes.

Methods

This 5-year cohort study included 16,648 Spanish working adults with prediabetes. Prediabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) between 100 and 125 mg/dl according to the ADA criteria, while prediabetes reversion was defined as a FPG <100 mg/dL. The population was classified as: FLI <30 (no hepatic steatosis), FLI 30–59 (intermediate status), and FLI ≥60 (hepatic steatosis).

Results

At 5 years follow-up, 33.7% of subjects reverted to normoglycemia (annual rate of 6.7%). The adjusted binomial logistic regression model showed that scoring FLI <30 (OR 1.544; 95% CI 1.355–1.759), performing at least 150 min/week of physical activity (OR 4.600; 95% CI 4.088–5.177) and consuming fruits and vegetables daily (OR 1.682; 95% CI 1.526–1.855) were associated with the probability of reverting form prediabetes to normoglycemia. The ROC curve for prediction of reversion showed that FLI (AUC 0.774;95% CI 0.767–0.781) was a better predictor than FPG (AUC 0.656; 95% CI 0.648–0.664).

Conclusions

Regular physical activity, healthy dietary habits and absence of hepatic steatosis are independently associated with the probability of reversion to normoglycemia in adult workers with prediabetes at baseline. Low FLI values (especially FLI< 30) may be useful to predict the probability of prediabetes reversion, especially in active subjects with healthy eating habits, and thus identify those who might benefit from early lifestyle intervention.

Risk of Progression to Diabetes Among Older Adults With Prediabetes

IMPORTANCE

The term prediabetes is used to identify individuals at increased risk for diabetes. However, the natural history of prediabetes in older age is not well characterized.

OBJECTIVES

To compare different prediabetes definitions and characterize the risks of prediabetes and diabetes among older adults in a community-based setting.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this prospective cohort analysis of 3412 older adults without diabetes from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (baseline, 2011-2013), participants were contacted semiannually through December 31, 2017, and attended a follow-up visit between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2017 (median [range] follow-up, 5.0 [0.1-6.5] years).

EXPOSURES

Prediabetes defined by a glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level of 5.7% to 6.4%, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) level (FG level of 100-125 mg/dL), either, or both.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident total diabetes (physician diagnosis, glucose-lowering medication use, HbA1c level ≥6.5%, or FG level ≥126 mg/dL).

RESULTS

A total of 3412 participants without diabetes (mean [SD] age, 75.6 [5.2] years; 2040 [60%] female; and 572 [17%] Black) attended visit 5 (2011-2013, baseline). Of the 3412 participants at baseline, a total of 2497 participants attended the follow-up visit or died. During the 6.5-year follow-up period, there were 156 incident total diabetes cases (118 diagnosed) and 434 deaths. A total of 1490 participants (44%) had HbA1c levels of 5.7% to 6.4%, 1996 (59%) had IFG, 2482 (73%) met the HbA1c or IFG criteria, and 1004 (29%) met both the HbA1c and IFG criteria. Among participants with HbA1c levels of 5.7% to 6.4% at baseline, 97 (9%) progressed to diabetes, 148 (13%) regressed to normoglycemia (HbA1c, <5.7%), and 207 (19%) died. Of those with IFG at baseline, 112 (8%) progressed to diabetes, 647 (44%) regressed to normoglycemia (FG, <100 mg/dL), and 236 (16%) died. Of those with baseline HbA1c levels less than 5.7%, 239 (17%) progressed to HbA1c levels of 5.7% to 6.4% and 41 (3%) developed diabetes. Of those with baseline FG levels less than 100 mg/dL, 80 (8%) progressed to IFG (FG, 100-125 mg/dL) and 26 (3%) developed diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this community-based cohort study of older adults, the prevalence of prediabetes was high; however, during the study period, regression to normoglycemia or death was more frequent than progression to diabetes. These findings suggest that prediabetes may not be a robust diagnostic entity in older age.

Patterns of changes in fasting plasma glucose, hemoglobin A1c and the area under the curve during oral glucose tolerance tests in prediabetic subjects: results from a 16-year prospective cohort study among first-degree relatives of type 2 diabetic patients

AIM

This study aimed to identify the patterns of changes in glycemic indices over time in prediabetics and to classify these subjects as either having a high or low risk for developing diabetes in future.

METHODS

This prospective 16-year cohort study was conducted among 1228 prediabetic subjects. Three measurements including first visit, mean values during the follow-up period, and last visit from fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1_C), and area under the curve during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT AUC) were used to evaluate the patterns of changes by using the latent Markov model (LMM).

RESULTS

The mean (standard deviation) age of subjects was 44.0 (6.8) years, and 73.6% of them were female. The LMM identified 2 latent states of subjects in terms of changes in FPG, HbA1c, OGTT AUC, and the combination of these glycemic measures: a low tendency to progress diabetes and a high tendency to progress diabetes with the latent state sizes (87, 13%), (94, 6%), (57, 43%), and (84, 16%), respectively. The LMM showed that the probability of transitioning from a low tendency to a high tendency to progress diabetes was higher than the probability of transitioning in the opposite direction.

CONCLUSION

Based on a long-term evaluation of patterns of changes in glycemic indices, we classified prediabetic subjects into 2 groups (high or low risk to progress diabetes states in future). Also, the method used enabled us to estimate the transition probabilities from low- to high-risk states and vice versa. Our results reemphasized the values of all 3 glycemic measures in clinical settings for identifying prediabetic people with a high risk of progressing diabetes and the need for more effective prevention strategies, which should be conducted as urgently in prediabetic life as high-risk subjects.

Reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia after weight change in older persons: The KORA F4/FF4 study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In a non-interventional study of older persons, we assessed the impact of changes in BMI and waist circumference (WC) on reversion from glucose- and HbA1c-defined prediabetes to normoglycaemia (in short: reversion) and on persistence of normoglycaemia. Moreover, we studied whether reversion reduced cardiovascular risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From the population-based KORA S4/F4/FF4 cohort study conducted in Southern Germany, we utilized data from the second and third visit to the study center (median follow-up 6.5 years). We used two overlapping data sets, one with 563 persons with HbA1c<6.5% (mean age 69 years, 51.5% men), one with 510 persons with glucose-based prediabetes or normal glucose tolerance. We calculated proportions of reversion, and estimated adjusted relative risks for the association between initial BMI/WC and change of BMI/WC, respectively, and reversion (and persistence of normoglycaemia, respectively). We estimated 10-year cardiovascular risks using the Framingham 2008 score. Overall, 27.3% of persons with HbA1c-defined prediabetes and 9.2% of persons with glucose-based prediabetes returned to normoglycaemia during follow-up. Lower initial BMI/WC and reduction of BMI/WC were associated with larger probabilities of returning to normoglycaemia (e.g., for HbA1c 5.7-6.4%, RR = 1.24 (95% CI: 1.09-1.41) per 1 kg/m² decline of BMI). Moreover, reduction of BMI/WC increased probabilities of maintaining normoglycaemia (e.g., for glucose-based prediabetes, RR = 1.09 (1.02-1.16) per 1 kg/m² decline of BMI). 10-year cardiovascular risk was 5.6 (1.7-9.6) percentage points lower after reversion from glucose-based prediabetes to normoglycaemia.

CONCLUSION

In older adults, even moderate weight reduction contributes to reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia and to maintaining normoglycaemia.

Reversion From Pre-Diabetes Mellitus to Normoglycemia and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality in a Chinese Population: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

It is unclear whether reversion from pre–diabetes mellitus to normoglycemia reduces cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all‐cause mortality risk in a Chinese population. We aimed to fill this research gap.

Methods and Results

The current study included 14 231 Chinese participants (mean age, 58.08 years) who were free from myocardial infarction and stroke at the time of survey participation (2006–2007 and 2008–2009). Participants were divided into 3 categories according to the 2‐year changes in pre–diabetes mellitus, defined by fasting plasma glucose: those with progression to diabetes mellitus, those with reversion from pre–diabetes mellitus to normoglycemia, and those with persistent pre–diabetes mellitus. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% CIs for CVD and all‐cause mortality. After a median follow‐up period of 8.75 years, a total of 879 CVD events (including 180 myocardial infarction events and 713 stroke events) and 941 all‐cause mortality events were recorded. After adjustment for confounding factors, reversion from pre–diabetes mellitus to normoglycemia was associated with decreased risks of CVD (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.64–0.96), myocardial infarction (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.40–0.97), stroke (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.63–0.98), and all‐cause mortality (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.68–0.99) compared with progression to diabetes mellitus.

Conclusions

Reversion from fasting plasma glucose–defined pre–diabetes mellitus to normoglycemia was associated with a reduction in the future risk of CVD and all‐cause mortality in a Chinese population.

Registration

URL: https://www.chictr.org; Unique identifier: ChiCTRTNC‐11001489.

The Prediabetes Outcome at National Guard Primary Health Care Centers in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Retrospective Chart Review

Objectives

To identify the outcome of prediabetes and the interventions that have been implemented for prediabetic patients at primary healthcare centers (PHCs) affiliated with King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Methodology

This retrospective chart-review study was carried out using the BestCare electronic health records (EHRs) system. Data from the PHCs of King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia were extracted. Inclusion criteria were patients with prediabetes who were diagnosed between January 2015 and December 2016, with at least one follow-up visit. Variables included demographics, comorbidities, blood sugar lab results, and lipid profile measurements at each visit and intervention at the time of the initial diagnosis. Fisher's Exact test, sign test, and Kruskal-Wallis test were used to assess the differences for non-normally-distributed variables, while a paired t-test was conducted for paired and normally distributed continuous variables. Data were analyzed using the statistical program SAS, version 9.4 (SAS Institute Inc. Cary, NC).

Result

Of the 92 patients followed up with for three years, 76.08% remained in the prediabetic range, while 16.4% regressed to a normal glycemic state (NGS) and 7.6% progressed to the diabetic range after intervention and follow-up for three years. Metformin use was not significant in the glycemic outcome. In comparison to the baseline, there was a considerable reduction in fasting blood sugar (FBS) and glycosylated hemoglobulin A1c (HbA1c) at the end of the follow-up.

Conclusion

We found that most of the patients remained in the prediabetic range after the three-year follow-up, with or without intervention. A commonly prescribed pharmacological intervention like metformin showed no regression benefit in most patients. More extensive prospective studies are needed to evaluate the outcome and adherence to different interventions.

Metformin Should Not Be Used to Treat Prediabetes

Based on the results of the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study (DPPOS), in which metformin significantly decreased the development of diabetes in individuals with baseline fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentrations of 110-125 vs. 100-109 mg/dL (6.1-6.9 vs. 5.6-6.0 mmol/L) and A1C levels 6.0-6.4% (42-46 mmol/mol) vs. <6.0% and in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus, it has been suggested that metformin should be used to treat people with prediabetes. Since the association between prediabetes and cardiovascular disease is due to the associated nonglycemic risk factors in people with prediabetes, not to the slightly increased glycemia, the only reason to treat with metformin is to delay or prevent the development of diabetes. There are three reasons not to do so. First, approximately two-thirds of people with prediabetes do not develop diabetes, even after many years. Second, approximately one-third of people with prediabetes return to normal glucose regulation. Third, people who meet the glycemic criteria for prediabetes are not at risk for the microvascular complications of diabetes and thus metformin treatment will not affect this important outcome. Why put people who are not at risk for the microvascular complications of diabetes on a drug (possibly for the rest of their lives) that has no immediate advantage except to lower subdiabetes glycemia to even lower levels? Rather, individuals at the highest risk for developing diabetes-i.e., those with FPG concentrations of 110-125 mg/dL (6.1-6.9 mmol/L) or A1C levels of 6.0-6.4% (42-46 mmol/mol) or women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus-should be followed closely and metformin immediately introduced only when they are diagnosed with diabetes.

Prediabetes and risk for myocardial infarction by hypertension status in a Chinese population: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Whether prediabetes alone or combined with hypertension is a more important risk factor for cardiovascular disease is controversial. In this study, we aimed to examine this association to fill the research gap.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 85 570 participants (mean age: 58.0 years) without diabetes and no previous myocardial infarction (MI) were recruited for this study. Participants were divided into four groups according to prediabetes status and were further stratified according to hypertension status. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Cox regression models. After a mean follow-up period of 11.0 years, 1122 (rate 1.19/1000 person-years) individuals developed MI. Compared with participants without either condition, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for MI events among participants with prediabetes alone, hypertension alone, and both prediabetes and hypertension were 1.06 (95% CI: 0.84-1.36), 1.73 (95% CI 1.49-2.00), and 1.89 (95% CI 1.57-2.27), respectively. Among participants with and without hypertension, there was no association between prediabetes and an increased risk for MI (hazard ratio: 1.11 95% CI 0.94-1.32 and hazard ratio: 1.02 95% CI 0.80-1.30, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The current study indicated that among the Chinese general population, the increased risk of MI associated with prediabetes is largely driven by concomitant hypertension rather than prediabetes per se.

Prevalence of untreated and uncontrolled cardiovascular risk factors in survivors of allogeneic cell transplantation

Cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) are frequent among long-term survivors after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) but prospective data on CVRF are sparse. We conducted a cross-sectional single center study including patients who underwent a first HCT mostly for hematologic malignancies at our center between 2000 and 2016, surviving at least 1 year. 260 patients (median age 54 years [range 19-78], 40% female) who were median 6 years (range 1-16) after transplantation were included. Most patients (232, 89%) had peripheral blood stem cell transplantation. cGVHD was present in 41% at the time of study inclusion. Prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, and diabetes was 58%, 63% and 9%, respectively. Untreated hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes was found in 15%, 35% and 2%. Among patients with treated hypertension, 38% did not have blood pressure controlled to levels ≤140/90 mmHg. 36% patients under lipid-lowering therapy did not reach their LDL target. Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed that age and diabetes increased the likelihood for hypertension and dyslipidemia, whereas body mass index, cGVHD and male sex predicted hypertension only. In summary, CVRF in long-term survivors are frequent and persisting after cessation of immunosuppression. A large proportion of CVRF are either untreated or uncontrolled.

Benefit of lifestyle-based T2DM prevention is influenced by prediabetes phenotype

The prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a target priority for the WHO and the United Nations and is a key priority in the 2018 Berlin Declaration, which is a global call for early actions related to T2DM. Health-care policies advocate that individuals at high risk of developing T2DM undertake lifestyle modification, irrespective of whether the prediabetes phenotype is defined by hyperglycaemia in the postprandial state (impaired glucose tolerance) and/or fasting state (impaired fasting glucose) or by intermediate HbA_1c levels. However, current evidence indicates that diabetes prevention programmes based on lifestyle change have not been successful in preventing T2DM in individuals with isolated impaired fasting glucose. We propose that further research is needed to identify effective lifestyle interventions for individuals with isolated impaired fasting glucose. Furthermore, we call for the identification of innovative approaches that better identify people with impaired glucose tolerance, who benefit from the currently available lifestyle-based diabetes prevention programmes.

Lifestyle and Progression to Type 2 Diabetes in a Cohort of Workers with Prediabetes

Background: People with prediabetes have an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Few studies have evaluated the influence of lifestyle factors on the risk of progression to diabetes and reversion to normoglycemia. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of T2D in a large cohort of workers with prediabetes, and to evaluate the influence of sociodemographic, clinical, metabolic, and lifestyle factors that affect the persistence of prediabetes and the progression to T2D. Methods: A cohort study of 27,844 adult workers (aged 20 to 65 years) from Spain who had prediabetes based on an occupational medical examination from 2012 to 2013. Prediabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) between 100 and 125 mg/dL. At the baseline evaluation, sociodemographic, anthropometric, metabolic, and lifestyle data were collected. At the 5-year follow-up, incident T2D was defined as an FPG of at least 126 mg/dL or initiation of an antidiabetic medication. Results: Among 235,995 initially screened workers, the prevalence of T2D was 14.19% (95% confidence interval (CI) 14.05 to 14.33) and the prevalence of prediabetes was 11.85% (95% CI 11.71 to 11.99). Follow-up data were available for 23,293 individuals with prediabetes. Among them, 36.08% (95% CI 35.46 to 36.70) returned to normoglycemia, 40.92% (95% CI 40.29 to 41.55) had persistent prediabetes, and 23.00% (95% CI 22.46 to 23.54) progressed to T2D. The risk for persistence of prediabetes and for progression to T2D increased with age, body mass index (BMI), triglyceride level, and less than 150 min/week of physical activity. An HbA1c level of 6% or greater was the strongest individual predictor of progression to T2D. Conclusions: Physical activity, diet, smoking, and BMI are modifiable factors that are associated with the persistence of prediabetes and the progression to T2D. The workplace is a feasible setting for the early detection of prediabetes and the promotion of lifestyles that can prevent progression to T2D.

The present and future scope of real-world evidence research in diabetes: What questions can and cannot be answered and what might be possible in the future?

The last decade has witnessed an exponential growth in the opportunities to collect and link health-related data from multiple resources, including primary care, administrative, and device data. The availability of these "real-world," "big data" has fuelled also an intense methodological research into methods to handle them and extract actionable information. In medicine, the evidence generated from "real-world data" (RWD), which are not purposely collected to answer biomedical questions, is commonly termed "real-world evidence" (RWE). In this review, we focus on RWD and RWE in the area of diabetes research, highlighting their contributions in the last decade; and give some suggestions for future RWE diabetes research, by applying well-established and less-known tools to direct RWE diabetes research towards better personalized approaches to diabetes care. We underline the essential aspects to consider when using RWD and the key features limiting the translational potential of RWD in generating high-quality and applicable RWE. Only if viewed in the context of other study designs and statistical methods, with its pros and cons carefully considered, RWE will exploit its full potential as a complementary or even, in some cases, substitutive source of evidence compared to the expensive evidence obtained from randomized controlled trials.

Change in glucose intolerance status and risk of incident cardiovascular disease: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

Background

To assess the impact of changes in different glucose tolerance states on risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD)/coronary heart disease (CHD).

Methods

A total of 4094 Iranians (43.9% men) aged ≥ 30 years, without diabetes and CVD at enrolment were included. The following categories were defined both at baseline visit and 3 years later (second visit): normal fasting glucose (NFG), normal glucose tolerance (NGT), NFG and NGT (NFG/NGT), impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and IFG and/or IGT (IFG/IGT). Changes in the categories, i.e. regression to normoglycemia, remaining in previous status and progression to diabetes were assessed. We used Cox’s proportional hazard models adjusted for traditional risk factors and their changes, to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of different changing categories for incident CVD/CHD.

Results

During a median follow-up of 12.42 years, 428 subjects (men = 265) experienced CVD. Considering persistent NFG/NGT as reference, participants who shifted from NFG/NGT to IFG/IGT showed a lower hazard of CVD in the fully adjusted model, HR 0.72 [95% CI 0.52–0.996, P = 0.048]. Moreover, subjects who shifted from IFG, IGT and IFG/IGT to diabetes had an increased risk of CVD/CHD. The risk however, was only statistically significant for those with IFG/IGT, 1.61 [(1.03–2.51), P = 0.04] for CVD and 1.75 [(1.10–2.78), P = 0.02] for CHD; considering IFG/IGT at both visits as reference. Furthermore, those who regressed from IFG/IGT to normoglycemia were at the same risk as those remained in IFG/IGT state, 1.12 [(0.79–1.60), P = 0.52] for CVD and 1.04 [(0.70–1.53), P = 0.85] for CHD. Among a subgroup of population with insulin data (n = 803) those with insulin resistance (IR) that converted to diabetes showed a higher risk for CVD, 3.68 [(1.49–9.06), P = 0.01] and CHD, 2.76 [(1.00–7.60), P = 0.05] events in the fully adjusted model.

Conclusions

Among participants with IFG, IGT or IFG/IGT at baseline, only those who developed diabetes had a higher risk of developing CVD/CHD. Persistent IFG/IGT was not associated with higher risk, compared with those reverted to normoglycemia. Moreover, subjects who converted from NFG/NGT to incident IFG/IGT showed a signal for lower risk of CVD/CHD.

Regression from prediabetes to normal glucose regulation: State of the science

IMPACT STATEMENT

Prediabetes increases the risks of future type 2 diabetes (T2D) and vascular complications, risks that can be prevented by restoring normal glucose regulation (NGR). Few studies have pre-specified reversal of prediabetes and restoration of NGR as primary outcome, and current approaches that prevent T2D in people with prediabetes do not always reverse the prediabetes. The present review focuses on studies that have assessed reversal of the prediabetes, and discusses known and emerging predictors of prediabetes. We argue that fuller knowledge of such predictors could inform the discovery of novel, targeted interventions for reversing prediabetes.

Prevalence of pre-diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes in the Mollerussa prospective observational cohort study in a semi-rural area of Catalonia

OBJECTIVES

To assess the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes and pre-diabetes in the healthy population in the Mollerussa cohort. As a secondary objective, to identify the variables associated with these conditions and to describe the changes in glycaemic status after 1 year of follow-up in subjects with pre-diabetes.

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING

General population from a semi-rural area.

PARTICIPANTS

The study included 583 participants without a diagnosis of diabetes recruited between March 2011 and July 2014.

RESULTS

The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 20, 3.4% (95% CI 2.6 to 4.2) and that of pre-diabetes was 229, 39.3% (37.3 to 41.3). Among those with pre-diabetes, 18.3% had isolated impaired fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (FPG: 100 to <126 mg/dL), 58.1% had isolated impaired glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) (HbA1c 5.7 to <6.5) and 23.6% fulfilled both criteria. Follow-up data were available for 166 subjects; 41.6%(37.8 to 45.4) returned to normoglycaemia, 57.6% (57.8 to 61.4) persisted in pre-diabetes and 0.6% (0 to 1.2) progressed to diabetes. Individuals with pre-diabetes had worse cardiometabolic risk profiles and sociodemographic features than normoglycaemic subjects. In the logistic regression model, variables significantly associated with pre-diabetes were older age (OR; 95% CI) (1.033; 1.011 to 1.056), higher physical activity (0.546; 0.360 to 0.827), body mass index (1.121; 1.029 to 1.222) and a family history of diabetes (1.543; 1.025 to 2.323). The variables significantly associated with glycaemic normalisation were older age (0.948; 0.916 to 0.982) and body mass index (0.779; 0.651 to 0.931).

CONCLUSIONS

Among adults in our region, the estimated prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 3.4% and that of pre-diabetes was 39.3%. After a 1-year follow-up, a small proportion of subjects (0.6%) with pre-diabetes progressed to diabetes, while a high proportion (41.6%) returned to normoglycaemia. Individuals with pre-diabetes who returned to normoglycaemia were younger and had a lower body mass index.