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Kanis JA, Harvey NC, Lorentzon M, Liu E, Schini M, Abrahamsen B, Adachi JD, Alokail M, Borgstrom F, Bruyère O, Carey JJ, Clark P, Cooper C, Curtis EM, Dennison EM, Díaz-Curiel M, Dimai HP, Grigorie D, Hiligsmann M, Khashayar P, Lems W, Lewiecki EM, Lorenc RS, Papaioannou A, Reginster JY, Rizzoli R, Shiroma E, Silverman SL, Simonsick E, Sosa-Henríquez M, Szulc P, Ward KA, Yoshimura N, Johansson H, Vandenput L, McCloskey EV. Race-specific FRAX models are evidence-based and support equitable care: a response to the ASBMR Task Force report on Clinical Algorithms for Fracture Risk. Osteoporos Int 2024; 35:1487-1496. [PMID: 38960982 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-024-07162-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2024] [Accepted: 06/19/2024] [Indexed: 07/05/2024]
Abstract
Task Force on 'Clinical Algorithms for Fracture Risk' commissioned by the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR) Professional Practice Committee has recommended that FRAX® models in the US do not include adjustment for race and ethnicity. This position paper finds that an agnostic model would unfairly discriminate against the Black, Asian and Hispanic communities and recommends the retention of ethnic and race-specific FRAX models for the US, preferably with updated data on fracture and death hazards. In contrast, the use of intervention thresholds based on a fixed bone mineral density unfairly discriminates against the Black, Asian and Hispanic communities in the US. This position of the Working Group on Epidemiology and Quality of Life of the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) is endorsed both by the IOF and the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO).
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Affiliation(s)
- John A Kanis
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Catholic University, AustralianMelbourne, Australia.
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK
| | - Mattias Lorentzon
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Catholic University, AustralianMelbourne, Australia
- Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Institute of Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Enwu Liu
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Catholic University, AustralianMelbourne, Australia
| | - Marian Schini
- Division of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Bo Abrahamsen
- Odense Patient Data Explorative Network, Institute of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
| | | | - Majed Alokail
- Biochemistry Department, College of Science, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Olivier Bruyère
- Research Unit in Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
| | - John J Carey
- School of Medicine, University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | - Patricia Clark
- Clinical Epidemiology Research Unit, Hospital Infantil de Mexico "Federico Gomez", Mexico City, Mexico
- Faculty of Medicine of National Autonomous University of Mexico (Universidad, Nacional Autónoma de México), Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Cyrus Cooper
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Elizabeth M Curtis
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Elaine M Dennison
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Manuel Díaz-Curiel
- Metabolic Bone Diseases Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitario Fundación Jiménez Díaz, Universidad Autónoma Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Hans P Dimai
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Styria, Austria
| | - Daniel Grigorie
- Carol Davila University of Medicine, Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Endocrinology & Bone Metabolism, National Institute of Endocrinology, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Mickael Hiligsmann
- Department of Health Services Research, CAPHRI Care and Public Health Research Institute, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Patricia Khashayar
- International Institute for Biosensing, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA
| | - Willem Lems
- Department of Rheumatology, Amsterdam UMC, Location VUmc, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - E Michael Lewiecki
- New Mexico Clinical Research & Osteoporosis Center, Albuquerque, NM, USA
| | - Roman S Lorenc
- Multidisciplinary Osteoporosis Forum, Warsaw, Poland, Poland
| | | | - Jean-Yves Reginster
- Protein Research Chair, Biochemistry Dept, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - René Rizzoli
- Division of Bone Diseases, Geneva University Hospitals and Faculty of Medicine, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Eric Shiroma
- Laboratory of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, National Institute On Aging, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Stuart L Silverman
- Department of Medicine, Division of Rheumatology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Eleanor Simonsick
- Translational Gerontology Branch, National Institute On Aging Intramural Research Program, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - Pawel Szulc
- INSERM UMR 1033, University of Lyon, Hospital Edouard Herriot, Lyon, France
| | - Kate A Ward
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- MRC Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Noriko Yoshimura
- Department of Preventive Medicine for Locomotive Organ Disorders, The University of Tokyo Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Helena Johansson
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Catholic University, AustralianMelbourne, Australia
- Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Institute of Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Liesbeth Vandenput
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Catholic University, AustralianMelbourne, Australia
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Division of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
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Lehmann O, Mineeva O, Veshchezerova D, Häuselmann H, Guyer L, Reichenbach S, Lehmann T, Demler O, Everts-Graber J. Fracture risk prediction in postmenopausal women with traditional and machine learning models in a nationwide, prospective cohort study in Switzerland with validation in the UK Biobank. J Bone Miner Res 2024; 39:1103-1112. [PMID: 38836468 DOI: 10.1093/jbmr/zjae089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2024] [Revised: 05/01/2024] [Accepted: 06/04/2024] [Indexed: 06/06/2024]
Abstract
Fracture prediction is essential in managing patients with osteoporosis and is an integral component of many fracture prevention guidelines. We aimed to identify the most relevant clinical fracture risk factors in contemporary populations by training and validating short- and long-term fracture risk prediction models in 2 cohorts. We used traditional and machine learning survival models to predict risks of vertebral, hip, and any fractures on the basis of clinical risk factors, T-scores, and treatment history among participants in a nationwide Swiss Osteoporosis Registry (N = 5944 postmenopausal women, median follow-up of 4.1 yr between January 2015 and October 2022; a total of 1190 fractures during follow-up). The independent validation cohort comprised 5474 postmenopausal women from the UK Biobank with 290 incident fractures during follow-up. Uno's C-index and the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristics curve were calculated to evaluate the performance of different machine learning models (Random survival forest and eXtreme Gradient Boosting). In the independent validation set, the C-index was 0.74 [0.58, 0.86] for vertebral fractures, 0.83 [0.7, 0.94] for hip fractures, and 0.63 [0.58, 0.69] for any fractures at year 2, and these values further increased for longer estimations of up to 7 yr. In comparison, the 10-yr fracture probability calculated with FRAX Switzerland was 0.60 [0.55, 0.64] for major osteoporotic fractures and 0.62 [0.49, 0.74] for hip fractures. The most important variables identified with Shapley additive explanations values were age, T-scores, and prior fractures, while number of falls was an important predictor of hip fractures. Performances of both traditional and machine learning models showed similar C-indices. We conclude that fracture risk can be improved by including the lumbar spine T-score, trabecular bone score, numbers of falls and recent fractures, and treatment information has a significant impact on fracture prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oliver Lehmann
- Department of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Olga Mineeva
- Department of Computer Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
| | | | - HansJörg Häuselmann
- Zentrum für Rheuma- und Knochenerkrankungen, Klinik Im Park, Hirslanden, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Laura Guyer
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Stephan Reichenbach
- Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Olga Demler
- Department of Computer Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
- Division of Preventive Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Judith Everts-Graber
- Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- OsteoRheuma Bern, Bahnhofplatz 1, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Diabetes, Endocrinology, Nutritional Medicine and Metabolism, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital and University of Bern, Switzerland
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Jain RK, Polley E, Weiner M, Iwamaye A, Huang E, Vokes T. An electronic health record (EHR)-based risk calculator can predict fractures comparably to FRAX: a proof-of-concept study. Osteoporos Int 2024:10.1007/s00198-024-07221-2. [PMID: 39147872 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-024-07221-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2024] [Accepted: 07/29/2024] [Indexed: 08/17/2024]
Abstract
Information in the electronic health record (EHR), such as diagnoses, vital signs, utilization, medications, and laboratory values, may predict fractures well without the need to verbally ascertain risk factors. In our study, as a proof of concept, we developed and internally validated a fracture risk calculator using only information in the EHR. PURPOSE Fracture risk calculators, such as the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool, or FRAX, typically lie outside the clinician workflow. Conversely, the electronic health record (EHR) is at the center of the clinical workflow, and many variables in the EHR could predict fractures without having to verbally ascertain FRAX risk factors. We sought to evaluate the utility of EHR variables to predict fractures and, as a proof of concept, to create an EHR-based fracture risk model. METHODS Routine clinical data from 24,189 subjects presenting to primary care from 2010 to 2018 was utilized. Major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) were captured by physician diagnosis codes. Data was split into training (n = 18,141) and test sets (n = 6048). We fit Cox regression models for candidate risk factors in the training set, and then created a global model using a backward stepwise approach. We then applied the model to the test set and compared the discrimination and calibration to FRAX. RESULTS We found variables related to vital signs, utilization, diagnoses, medications, and laboratory values to be associated with incident MOF. Our final model included 19 variables, including age, BMI, Parkinson's disease, chronic kidney disease, and albumin levels. When applied to the test set, we found the discrimination (AUC 0.73 vs. 0.70, p = 0.08) and calibration were comparable to FRAX. CONCLUSION Routinely collected data in EHR systems can generate adequate fracture predictions without the need to verbally ascertain fracture risk factors. In the future, this could allow for automated fracture prediction at the point of care to improve osteoporosis screening and treatment rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rajesh K Jain
- Section of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, The University of Chicago, 5841 S Maryland Ave, MC 1027, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.
| | - Eric Polley
- Department of Public Health Sciences, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Mark Weiner
- Clinical Population Health Sciences, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Amy Iwamaye
- Section of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism, Lewis Katz School of Medicine, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Elbert Huang
- Department of Medicine and Department of Public Health Sciences, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Tamara Vokes
- Section of Endocrinology, Diabetes, and Metabolism, Department of Medicine, The University of Chicago, 5841 S Maryland Ave, MC 1027, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA
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Praveen AD, Sollmann N, Baum T, Ferguson SJ, Benedikt H. CT image-based biomarkers for opportunistic screening of osteoporotic fractures: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Osteoporos Int 2024; 35:971-996. [PMID: 38353706 PMCID: PMC11136833 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-024-07029-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/30/2024]
Abstract
The use of opportunistic computed tomography (CT) image-based biomarkers may be a low-cost strategy for screening older individuals at high risk for osteoporotic fractures and populations that are not sufficiently targeted. This review aimed to assess the discriminative ability of image-based biomarkers derived from existing clinical routine CT scans for hip, vertebral, and major osteoporotic fracture prediction. A systematic search in PubMed MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science was conducted from the earliest indexing date until July 2023. The evaluation of study quality was carried out using a modified Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) checklist. The primary outcome of interest was the area under the curve (AUC) and its corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) obtained for four main categories of biomarkers: areal bone mineral density (BMD), image attenuation, volumetric BMD, and finite element (FE)-derived biomarkers. The meta-analyses were performed using random effects models. Sixty-one studies were included in this review, among which 35 were synthesized in a meta-analysis and the remaining articles were qualitatively synthesized. In comparison to the pooled AUC of areal BMD (0.73 [95% CI 0.71-0.75]), the pooled AUC values for predicting osteoporotic fractures for FE-derived parameters (0.77 [95% CI 0.72-0.81]; p < 0.01) and volumetric BMD (0.76 [95% CI 0.71-0.81]; p < 0.01) were significantly higher, but there was no significant difference with the pooled AUC for image attenuation (0.73 [95% CI 0.66-0.79]; p = 0.93). Compared to areal BMD, volumetric BMD and FE-derived parameters may provide a significant improvement in the discrimination of osteoporotic fractures using opportunistic CT assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anitha D Praveen
- Early Detection of Health Risks and Prevention, Future Health Technologies, Singapore-ETH Centre (SEC), Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE), 1 Create Way, CREATE Tower, #06-01, Singapore, 138602, Singapore.
| | - Nico Sollmann
- Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, University Hospital Ulm, Ulm, Germany
- Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Neuroradiology, School of Medicine, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- TUM-Neuroimaging Center, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Thomas Baum
- Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Neuroradiology, School of Medicine, Klinikum rechts der Isar, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Stephen J Ferguson
- Early Detection of Health Risks and Prevention, Future Health Technologies, Singapore-ETH Centre (SEC), Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE), 1 Create Way, CREATE Tower, #06-01, Singapore, 138602, Singapore
- Institute for Biomechanics, ETH-Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Helgason Benedikt
- Early Detection of Health Risks and Prevention, Future Health Technologies, Singapore-ETH Centre (SEC), Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE), 1 Create Way, CREATE Tower, #06-01, Singapore, 138602, Singapore
- Institute for Biomechanics, ETH-Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Li T, Zeng J, Pan Z, Hu F, Cai X, Wang X, Liu G, Hu X, Deng X, Gong M, Yang X, Gong Y, Li N, Li C. Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for osteopenia in Chinese middle-aged and elderly men: a prospective cohort study. BMC Musculoskelet Disord 2024; 25:394. [PMID: 38769526 PMCID: PMC11103995 DOI: 10.1186/s12891-024-07526-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2023] [Accepted: 05/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/22/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Early identification of patients at risk of osteopenia is an essential step in reducing the population at risk for fractures. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for osteopenia in Chinese middle-aged and elderly men that provides individualized risk estimates. METHODS In this prospective cohort study, 1109 patients who attend regular physical examinations in the Second Medical Centre of Chinese PLA General Hospital were enrolled from 2015.03 to 2015.09. The baseline risk factors included dietary habits, exercise habits, medical histories and medication records. Osteopenia during follow-up were collected from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) and telephone interviews. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping to correct the optimism. The independent sample T-test analysis, Mann_Whitney U test, Chi-Square Test and multivariable Cox regression analysis were utilized to identify predictive factors for osteopenia in Chinese middle-aged and elderly men. A nomogram based on the seven variables was built for clinical use. Concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the efficiency of the nomogram. RESULTS The risk factors included in the prediction model were bone mineral density at left femoral neck (LNBMD), hemoglobin (Hb), serum albumin (ALB), postprandial blood glucose (PBG), fatty liver disease (FLD), smoking and tea consumption. The C-index for the risk nomogram was 0.773 in the prediction model, which presented good refinement. The AUC of the risk nomogram at different time points ranged from 0.785 to 0.817, exhibiting good predictive ability and performance. In addition, the DCA showed that the nomogram had a good clinical application value. The nomogram calibration curve indicated that the prediction model was consistent. CONCLUSIONS Our study provides a novel nomogram and a web calculator that can effectively predict the 7-year incidence risk of osteopenia in Chinese middle-aged and elderly men. It is convenient for clinicians to prevent fragility fractures in the male population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ting Li
- Department of Endocrinology, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Jing Zeng
- Department of Endocrinology, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Zimo Pan
- Department of Endocrinology, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Fan Hu
- Department of Endocrinology, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoyan Cai
- Department of Nephrology, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Xinjiang Wang
- Department of Radiology, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Guanzhong Liu
- Department of Radiology, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Xinghe Hu
- Department of Radiology, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Xinli Deng
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Meiliang Gong
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Xue Yang
- Department of Outpatient, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Yanping Gong
- Department of Endocrinology, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Nan Li
- Department of Endocrinology, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
| | - Chunlin Li
- Department of Endocrinology, the Second Medical Centre & National Clinical Research Centre for Geriatric Disease, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
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Ye C, Schousboe JT, Morin SN, Lix LM, McCloskey EV, Johansson H, Harvey NC, Kanis JA, Leslie WD. FRAX predicts cardiovascular risk in women undergoing osteoporosis screening: the Manitoba bone mineral density registry. J Bone Miner Res 2024; 39:30-38. [PMID: 38630880 PMCID: PMC11207923 DOI: 10.1093/jbmr/zjad010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2023] [Revised: 10/31/2023] [Accepted: 11/14/2023] [Indexed: 04/19/2024]
Abstract
Osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are highly prevalent in older women, with increasing evidence for shared risk factors and pathogenesis. Although FRAX was developed for the assessment of fracture risk, we hypothesized that it might also provide information on CVD risk. To test the ability of the FRAX tool and FRAX-defined risk factors to predict incident CVD in women undergoing osteoporosis screening with DXA, we performed a retrospective prognostic cohort study which included women aged 50 yr or older with a baseline DXA scan in the Manitoba Bone Mineral Density Registry between March 31, 1999 and March 31, 2018. FRAX scores for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) were calculated on all participants. Incident MOF and major adverse CV events (MACE; hospitalized acute myocardial infarction [AMI], hospitalized non-hemorrhagic cerebrovascular disease [CVA], or all-cause death) were ascertained from linkage to population-based healthcare data. The study population comprised 59 696 women (mean age 65.7 ± 9.4 yr). Over mean 8.7 yr of observation, 6021 (10.1%) had MOF, 12 277 women (20.6%) had MACE, 2274 (3.8%) had AMI, 2061 (3.5%) had CVA, and 10 253 (17.2%) died. MACE rates per 1000 person-years by FRAX risk categories low (10-yr predicted MOF <10%), moderate (10%-19.9%) and high (≥20%) were 13.5, 34.0, and 64.6, respectively. Although weaker than the association with incident MOF, increasing FRAX quintile was associated with increasing risk for MACE (all P-trend <.001), even after excluding prior CVD and adjusting for age. HR for MACE per SD increase in FRAX was 1.99 (95%CI, 1.96-2.02). All FRAX-defined risk factors (except parental hip fracture and lower BMI) were independently associated with higher non-death CV events. Although FRAX is intended for fracture risk prediction, it has predictive value for cardiovascular risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carrie Ye
- Division of Rheumatology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 2G3, Canada
| | - John T Schousboe
- Park Nicollet Clinic and HealthPartners Institute, Bloomington, MN 55425, United States
- Division of Health Policy and Management, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, United States
| | - Suzanne N Morin
- Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal, QC, H3G 2M1, Canada
| | - Lisa M Lix
- Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, R3E 0T6, Canada
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research,Division of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield. Sheffield, SYK, S10 2TN, United Kingdom
- Department of Oncology & Metabolism, MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, SYK, S10 2TN, United Kingdom
| | - Helena Johansson
- MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research,Division of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield. Sheffield, SYK, S10 2TN, United Kingdom
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire, SO16 6YD, United Kingdom
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, Hampshire, SO16 6YD, United Kingdom
| | - John A Kanis
- MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research,Division of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield. Sheffield, SYK, S10 2TN, United Kingdom
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
| | - William D Leslie
- Department of Oncology & Metabolism, MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, SYK, S10 2TN, United Kingdom
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Guthrie B, Rogers G, Livingstone S, Morales DR, Donnan P, Davis S, Youn JH, Hainsworth R, Thompson A, Payne K. The implications of competing risks and direct treatment disutility in cardiovascular disease and osteoporotic fracture: risk prediction and cost effectiveness analysis. HEALTH AND SOCIAL CARE DELIVERY RESEARCH 2024; 12:1-275. [PMID: 38420962 DOI: 10.3310/kltr7714] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/02/2024]
Abstract
Background Clinical guidelines commonly recommend preventative treatments for people above a risk threshold. Therefore, decision-makers must have faith in risk prediction tools and model-based cost-effectiveness analyses for people at different levels of risk. Two problems that arise are inadequate handling of competing risks of death and failing to account for direct treatment disutility (i.e. the hassle of taking treatments). We explored these issues using two case studies: primary prevention of cardiovascular disease using statins and osteoporotic fracture using bisphosphonates. Objectives Externally validate three risk prediction tools [QRISK®3, QRISK®-Lifetime, QFracture-2012 (ClinRisk Ltd, Leeds, UK)]; derive and internally validate new risk prediction tools for cardiovascular disease [competing mortality risk model with Charlson Comorbidity Index (CRISK-CCI)] and fracture (CFracture), accounting for competing-cause death; quantify direct treatment disutility for statins and bisphosphonates; and examine the effect of competing risks and direct treatment disutility on the cost-effectiveness of preventative treatments. Design, participants, main outcome measures, data sources Discrimination and calibration of risk prediction models (Clinical Practice Research Datalink participants: aged 25-84 years for cardiovascular disease and aged 30-99 years for fractures); direct treatment disutility was elicited in online stated-preference surveys (people with/people without experience of statins/bisphosphonates); costs and quality-adjusted life-years were determined from decision-analytic modelling (updated models used in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence decision-making). Results CRISK-CCI has excellent discrimination, similar to that of QRISK3 (Harrell's c = 0.864 vs. 0.865, respectively, for women; and 0.819 vs. 0.834, respectively, for men). CRISK-CCI has systematically better calibration, although both models overpredict in high-risk subgroups. People recommended for treatment (10-year risk of ≥ 10%) are younger when using QRISK-Lifetime than when using QRISK3, and have fewer observed events in a 10-year follow-up (4.0% vs. 11.9%, respectively, for women; and 4.3% vs. 10.8%, respectively, for men). QFracture-2012 underpredicts fractures, owing to under-ascertainment of events in its derivation. However, there is major overprediction among people aged 85-99 years and/or with multiple long-term conditions. CFracture is better calibrated, although it also overpredicts among older people. In a time trade-off exercise (n = 879), statins exhibited direct treatment disutility of 0.034; for bisphosphonates, it was greater, at 0.067. Inconvenience also influenced preferences in best-worst scaling (n = 631). Updated cost-effectiveness analysis generates more quality-adjusted life-years among people with below-average cardiovascular risk and fewer among people with above-average risk. If people experience disutility when taking statins, the cardiovascular risk threshold at which benefits outweigh harms rises with age (≥ 8% 10-year risk at 40 years of age; ≥ 38% 10-year risk at 80 years of age). Assuming that everyone experiences population-average direct treatment disutility with oral bisphosphonates, treatment is net harmful at all levels of risk. Limitations Treating data as missing at random is a strong assumption in risk prediction model derivation. Disentangling the effect of statins from secular trends in cardiovascular disease in the previous two decades is challenging. Validating lifetime risk prediction is impossible without using very historical data. Respondents to our stated-preference survey may not be representative of the population. There is no consensus on which direct treatment disutilities should be used for cost-effectiveness analyses. Not all the inputs to the cost-effectiveness models could be updated. Conclusions Ignoring competing mortality in risk prediction overestimates the risk of cardiovascular events and fracture, especially among older people and those with multimorbidity. Adjustment for competing risk does not meaningfully alter cost-effectiveness of these preventative interventions, but direct treatment disutility is measurable and has the potential to alter the balance of benefits and harms. We argue that this is best addressed in individual-level shared decision-making. Study registration This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42021249959. Funding This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/12/22) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 4. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bruce Guthrie
- Advanced Care Research Centre, Centre for Population Health Sciences, Usher Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Gabriel Rogers
- Manchester Centre for Health Economics, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Shona Livingstone
- Population Health and Genomics Division, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Daniel R Morales
- Population Health and Genomics Division, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Peter Donnan
- Population Health and Genomics Division, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Sarah Davis
- School of Health and Related Research, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | | | - Rob Hainsworth
- Manchester Centre for Health Economics, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Alexander Thompson
- Manchester Centre for Health Economics, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - Katherine Payne
- Manchester Centre for Health Economics, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
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Vizcarra P, Moreno A, Vivancos MJ, Muriel García A, Ramirez Schacke M, González-Garcia J, Curran A, Palacios R, Sánchez Guirao AJ, Reus Bañuls S, Moreno Guillén S, Casado JL. A Risk Assessment Tool for Predicting Fragility Fractures in People with HIV: Derivation and Internal Validation of the FRESIA Model. J Bone Miner Res 2023; 38:1443-1452. [PMID: 37545089 DOI: 10.1002/jbmr.4894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Revised: 07/28/2023] [Accepted: 08/01/2023] [Indexed: 08/08/2023]
Abstract
People with HIV have a higher risk of fracture than the general population. Because of the low performance of the existing prediction tools, there is controversy surrounding fracture risk estimation in this population. The aim of the study was to develop a model for predicting the long-term risk of fragility fractures in people with HIV. We included 11,899 individuals aged ≥30 years from the Spanish HIV/AIDS research network cohort. We identified incident fragility fractures from medical records, defined as nontraumatic or those occurring after a casual fall, at major osteoporotic sites (hip, clinical spine, forearm, proximal humerus). Our model accounted for the competing risk of death and included 12 candidate predictors to estimate the time to first fragility fracture. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the model and compared it with the FRAX tool. The incidence rate of fragility fractures was 4.34 (95% CI 3.61 to 5.22) per 1000 person-years. The final prediction model included age, chronic kidney disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as significant predictors. The model accurately predicted the 5- and 10-year risk of fragility fractures, with an area under the receiving operator characteristic curve of 0.768 (95% CI 0.722 to 0.814) and agreement between the observed and expected probabilities. Furthermore, it demonstrated better discrimination and calibration than the FRAX tool, improving the classification of over 35% of individuals with fragility fractures compared to FRAX. Our prediction model demonstrated accuracy in predicting the long-term risk of fragility fractures. It can assist in making personalized intervention decisions for individuals with HIV and could potentially replace the current tools recommended for fracture risk assessment in this population. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).
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Affiliation(s)
- Pilar Vizcarra
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, IRyCIS, Madrid, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
- Universidad de Alcalá, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, Spain
| | - Ana Moreno
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, IRyCIS, Madrid, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - María J Vivancos
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, IRyCIS, Madrid, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Alfonso Muriel García
- Unit of Biostatistics, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red, Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, Spain
| | - Margarita Ramirez Schacke
- Unit of Infectious Diseases - HIV, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain
| | - Juan González-Garcia
- Unit of VIH, Department of Internal Medicine II, Hospital Universitario La Paz, IdiPaz, Madrid, Spain
| | - Adrián Curran
- Infectious Diseases Department, Vall d'Hebron University Hospital, Vall d'Hebron Research Institute, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Rosario Palacios
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Virgen de la Victoria, Malaga, Spain
| | | | - Sergio Reus Bañuls
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, ISABIAL, Hospital General Universitario Dr. Balmis, Alicante, Spain
| | - Santiago Moreno Guillén
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, IRyCIS, Madrid, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
- Universidad de Alcalá, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, Madrid, Spain
| | - José L Casado
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal, IRyCIS, Madrid, Spain
- CIBER de Enfermedades Infecciosas (CIBERINFEC), Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
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9
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Lorentzon M, Burghardt AJ. The Added Value of High-Resolution Peripheral Quantitative Computed Tomography in Fracture Risk Prediction. J Bone Miner Res 2023; 38:1225-1226. [PMID: 37702108 DOI: 10.1002/jbmr.4909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Revised: 08/11/2023] [Accepted: 08/26/2023] [Indexed: 09/14/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Mattias Lorentzon
- Region Västra Götaland, Geriatric Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Mölndal, Sweden
- Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Geriatric Medicine, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Andrew J Burghardt
- Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
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10
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Livingstone S, Morales DR, Fleuriot J, Donnan PT, Guthrie B. External validation of the QLifetime cardiovascular risk prediction tool: population cohort study. BMC Cardiovasc Disord 2023; 23:194. [PMID: 37061672 PMCID: PMC10105395 DOI: 10.1186/s12872-023-03209-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2022] [Accepted: 03/28/2023] [Indexed: 04/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prediction of lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is recommended in many clinical guidelines, but lifetime risk models are rarely externally validated. The aim of this study was to externally validate the QRiskLifetime incident CVD risk prediction tool. METHODS Independent external validation of QRiskLifetime using Clinical Practice Research Datalink data, examining discrimination and calibration in the whole population and stratified by age, and reclassification compared to QRISK3. Since lifetime CVD risk is unobservable, performance was evaluated at 10-years' follow-up, and lifetime performance inferred in terms of performance for in the different age-groups from which lifetime predictions are derived. RESULTS One million, two hundreds sixty thousand and three hundreds twenty nine women and 1,223,265 men were included in the analysis. Discrimination was excellent in the whole population (Harrell's-C = 0.844 in women, 0.808 in men), but moderate to poor stratified by age-group (Harrell's C in people aged 30-44 0.714 for both men and women, in people aged 75-84 0.578 in women and 0.556 in men). Ten-year CVD risk was under-predicted in the whole population, and in all age-groups except women aged 45-64, with worse under-prediction in older age-groups. Compared to those at highest QRISK3 estimated 10-year risk, those with highest lifetime risk were younger (mean age: women 50.5 vs. 71.3 years; men 46.3 vs. 63.8 years) and had lower systolic blood pressure and prevalence of treated hypertension, but had more family history of premature CVD, and were more commonly minority ethnic. Over 10-years, the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) with a statin to prevent one CVD event in people with QRISK3 ≥ 10% was 34 in women and 37 in men, compared to 99 and 100 for those at highest lifetime risk. CONCLUSIONS QRiskLifetime underpredicts 10-year CVD risk in nearly all age-groups, so is likely to also underpredict lifetime risk. Treatment based on lifetime risk has considerably lower medium-term benefit than treatment based on 10-year risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shona Livingstone
- Division of Population Health and Genomics, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Daniel R Morales
- Division of Population Health and Genomics, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | | | - Peter T Donnan
- School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Bruce Guthrie
- Advanced Care Research Centre, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Old Medical School, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 3, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, UK.
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11
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Kline GA, Morin SN, Lix LM, McCloskey EV, Johansson H, Harvey NC, Kanis JA, Leslie WD. General Comorbidity Indicators Contribute to Fracture Risk Independent of FRAX: Registry-Based Cohort Study. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2023; 108:745-754. [PMID: 36201517 DOI: 10.1210/clinem/dgac582] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2022] [Revised: 09/28/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
CONTEXT FRAX® estimates 10-year fracture probability from osteoporosis-specific risk factors. Medical comorbidity indicators are associated with fracture risk but whether these are independent from those in FRAX is uncertain. OBJECTIVE We hypothesized Johns Hopkins Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADG®) score or recent hospitalization number may be independently associated with increased risk for fractures. METHODS This retrospective cohort study included women and men age ≥ 40 in the Manitoba BMD Registry (1996-2016) with at least 3 years prior health care data and used linked administrative databases to construct ADG scores along with number of hospitalizations for each individual. Incident Major Osteoporotic Fracture and Hip Fracture was ascertained during average follow-up of 9 years; Cox regression analysis determined the association between increasing ADG score or number of hospitalizations and fractures. RESULTS Separately, hospitalizations and ADG score independently increased the hazard ratio for fracture at all levels of comorbidity (hazard range 1.2-1.8, all P < 0.05), irrespective of adjustment for FRAX, BMD, and competing mortality. Taken together, there was still a higher than predicted rate of fracture at all levels of increased comorbidity, independent of FRAX and BMD but attenuated by competing mortality. Using an intervention threshold of major fracture risk >20%, application of the comorbidity hazard ratio multiplier to the patient population FRAX scores would increase the number of treatment candidates from 8.6% to 14.4%. CONCLUSION Both complex and simple measures of medical comorbidity may be used to modify FRAX-based risk estimates to capture the increased fracture risk associated with multiple comorbid conditions in older patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gregory A Kline
- Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary T2N 2T9, Canada
| | - Suzanne N Morin
- Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal H3A 1G1, Canada
| | - Lisa M Lix
- Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg R3E 0W2, Canada
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Melbourne S5 7AU, UK
| | - Helena Johansson
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Melbourne S5 7AU, UK
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne 3000, Australia
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Center, University of Southampton, Southampton SO16 6YD, UK
| | - John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Melbourne S5 7AU, UK
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne 3000, Australia
| | - William D Leslie
- Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg R3E 0W2, Canada
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12
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Vizcarra P, Moreno A, Vivancos MJ, García AM, González RP, Gutiérrez F, Mata DC, Galindo P, Calzado S, Casado JL. Improving Recognition of Fracture Risk in People with Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Performance and Model Contribution of Two Common Risk Assessment Tools. AIDS Patient Care STDS 2023; 37:11-21. [PMID: 36576916 DOI: 10.1089/apc.2022.0183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Current guidelines recommend screening people with HIV (PWH) for bone disease using predictive tools developed for the general population, although data on PWH are scarce. In this study, we assessed the performance of FRAX and QFracture scoring systems to predict the occurrence of fragility fractures in a prospective cohort of 17,671 adults with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) included in the HIV/AIDS research network (CoRIS) in Spain. The survival estimates of fragility fractures during follow-up were calculated and FRAX and QFracture scores were computed at cohort inclusion. For both tools, discriminatory measures and the observed-to-expected (O/E) ratios were assessed. During a follow-up time of 42,411.55 person-years, 113 fragility fractures were recorded. Areas under the curve were 0.66 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.61-0.71] for FRAX and 0.67 (95% CI 0.62-0.73) for QFracture for major osteoporotic fractures, and 0.72 (95% CI 0.57-0.88) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.68-0.95) for hip fracture, respectively. The O/E was 1.67 for FRAX and 5.49 for QFracture for major osteoporotic fractures, and 11.23 for FRAX and 4.87 for QFracture for hip fractures. Moreover, O/E raised as the risk increased for both tools and in almost all age groups. When using the recommended assessment thresholds, <6% and 10% of major osteoporotic and hip fractures would have been identified, respectively. In conclusion, FRAX and QFracture displayed acceptable discrimination, although both tools significantly underestimated the risk of fragility fractures in PWH. The recommended assessment thresholds may not be appropriate for this population as they were unable to identify individuals with fragility fractures during follow-up.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pilar Vizcarra
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ramón y Cajal University Hospital, IRyCIS, Madrid, Spain.,Universidad de Alcalá, Ramón y Cajal University Hospital, Madrid, Spain
| | - Ana Moreno
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ramón y Cajal University Hospital, IRyCIS, Madrid, Spain
| | - María J Vivancos
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ramón y Cajal University Hospital, IRyCIS, Madrid, Spain
| | - Alfonso Muriel García
- Unit of Biostatistics, Ramón y Cajal University Hospital, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red, Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Universidad de Alcalá, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Félix Gutiérrez
- Hospital General Universitario de Elche & University Miguel Hernández, Alicante, CIBERINFEC, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
| | - Diana Corona Mata
- Clinical Virology and Zoonoses Group, Unit of Infectious Diseases, Instituto Maimónides de Investigación Biomédica de Córdoba (IMIBIC), Hospital Universitario Reina Sofía, Universidad de Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain
| | - Pepa Galindo
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valencia, Valencia, Spain
| | - Sonia Calzado
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Parc Tauli Hospital Universitari, Sabadell, Spain
| | - José L Casado
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ramón y Cajal University Hospital, IRyCIS, Madrid, Spain
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13
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Kanis JA, McCloskey EV, Harvey NC, Cooper C, Rizzoli R, Dawson-Hughes B, Maggi S, Reginster JY. The need to distinguish intervention thresholds and diagnostic thresholds in the management of osteoporosis. Osteoporos Int 2023; 34:1-9. [PMID: 36282342 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-022-06567-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2022] [Accepted: 09/30/2022] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
This position paper of the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) and the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis, Osteoarthritis and Musculoskeletal Diseases (ESCEO) addresses the rationale for separate diagnostic and intervention thresholds in osteoporosis. We conclude that the current BMD-based diagnostic criteria for osteoporosis be retained whilst clarity is brought to bear on the distinction between diagnostic and intervention thresholds.
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Affiliation(s)
- John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK
- Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing (CIMA), Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO16 6YD, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Tremona Road, Southampton, UK
| | - Cyrus Cooper
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO16 6YD, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Tremona Road, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Rene Rizzoli
- Service of Bone Diseases, Geneva University Hospitals and Faculty of Medicine, 1211, Geneva 14, Switzerland
| | - Bess Dawson-Hughes
- Jean Mayer USDA Human Nutrition Research Center On Aging, Tufts University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Stefania Maggi
- Institute of Neuroscience, Aging Branch, CNR, Padua, Italy
| | - Jean-Yves Reginster
- WHO Collaborating Center for Epidemiology of Musculoskeletal Health and Aging, Liege, Belgium
- Division of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège, CHU Sart Tilman B23, 4000, Liege, Belgium
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14
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Gavilanez EL, Luis IN, Mario NG, Johansson H, Harvey NC, Lorentzon M, Liu E, Vandenput L, McCloskey EV, Kanis JA. An assessment of intervention thresholds for high fracture risk in Chile. Arch Osteoporos 2022; 18:11. [PMID: 36527508 DOI: 10.1007/s11657-022-01198-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2022] [Accepted: 12/01/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Assessment and treatment pathways using FRAX-based intervention thresholds in Chile can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low fracture risk. PURPOSE The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women eligible for treatment in Chile based on major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) probabilities derived from FRAX®. METHODS Intervention and assessment thresholds were derived using methods adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Chile. Age-dependent and hybrid assessment and intervention thresholds were applied to 1998 women and 1122 men age 50 years or more drawn from participants in the National Health Survey 2016-2017. RESULTS Approximately 12% of men and women had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. Using age-dependent thresholds, an additional 2.6% of women (0.3% of men) were eligible for treatment in that MOF probabilities lay above the upper assessment threshold. A BMD test would be recommended in 5% of men and 38% of women. With hybrid thresholds, an additional 13% of women (3.6% of men) were eligible for treatment and BMD recommended in 11% of men and 42% of women. CONCLUSION The application of hybrid intervention thresholds ameliorates the disparity in fracture probabilities seen with age-dependent thresholds. Probability-based assessment of fracture risk, including the use of the hybrid intervention thresholds for Chile, is expected to help guide decisions about treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Enrique Lopez Gavilanez
- AECE Research Group, The Association of Clinical Endocrinologists of Ecuador, Guayaquil, Ecuador
- Hospital Docente de La Policía Nacional Guayaquil #2, Guayaquil, Ecuador
| | - Imaicela N Luis
- AECE Research Group, The Association of Clinical Endocrinologists of Ecuador, Guayaquil, Ecuador
| | - Navarro G Mario
- AECE Research Group, The Association of Clinical Endocrinologists of Ecuador, Guayaquil, Ecuador
| | - Helena Johansson
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK
- Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK
| | - Mattias Lorentzon
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
- Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Enwu Liu
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Liesbeth Vandenput
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
- Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK
- Department of Oncology and Metabolism, Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - John A Kanis
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.
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Livingstone SJ, Morales DR, McMinn M, Eke C, Donnan P, Guthrie B. Effect of competing mortality risks on predictive performance of the QFracture risk prediction tool for major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture: external validation cohort study in a UK primary care population. BMJ MEDICINE 2022; 1:e000316. [PMID: 36936595 PMCID: PMC9978756 DOI: 10.1136/bmjmed-2022-000316] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2022] [Accepted: 08/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Objective To externally evaluate the QFracture risk prediction tool for predicting the risk of major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. Design External validation cohort study. Setting UK primary care population. Linked general practice (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Gold), mortality registration (Office of National Statistics), and hospital inpatient (Hospital Episode Statistics) data, from 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2016. Participants 2 747 409 women and 2 684 730 men, aged 30-99 years, with up-to-standard linked data that had passed CPRD checks for at least one year. Main outcome measures Two outcomes were modelled based on the QFracture: major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. Major osteoporotic fracture was defined as any hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus, or vertebral crush fracture, from general practice, hospital discharge, and mortality data. The QFracture 10 year predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture was calculated, and performance evaluated versus observed 10 year risk of fracture in the whole population, and in subgroups based on age and comorbidity. QFracture calibration was examined accounting for, and not accounting for, competing risk of mortality from causes other than the major osteoporotic fracture. Results 2 747 409 women with 95 598 major osteoporotic fractures and 36 400 hip fractures, and 2 684 730 men with 34 321 major osteoporotic fractures and 13 379 hip fractures were included in the analysis. The incidence of all fractures was higher than in the QFracture internal derivation. Competing risk of mortality was more common than fracture from middle age onwards. QFracture discrimination in the whole population was excellent or good for major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture (Harrell's C statistic in women 0.813 and 0.918, and 0.738 and 0.888 in men, respectively), but was poor to moderate in age subgroups (eg, Harrell's C statistic in women and men aged 85-99 years was 0.576 and 0.624 for major osteoporotic fractures, and 0.601 and 0.637 for hip fractures, respectively). Without accounting for competing risks, QFracture systematically under-predicted the risk of fracture in all models, and more so for major osteoporotic fracture than for hip fracture, and more so in older people. Accounting for competing risks, QFracture still under-predicted the risk of fracture in the whole population, but over-prediction was considerable in older age groups and in people with high comorbidities at high risk of fracture. Conclusions The QFracture risk prediction tool systematically under-predicted the risk of fracture (because of incomplete determination of fracture rates) and over-predicted the risk in older people and in those with more comorbidities (because of competing mortality). The use of QFracture in its current form needs to be reviewed, particularly in people at high risk of death from other causes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Daniel R Morales
- Population Health and Genomics Division, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Megan McMinn
- Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Chima Eke
- Advanced Care Research Centre, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Peter Donnan
- Population Health and Genomics Division, University of Dundee, Dundee, UK
| | - Bruce Guthrie
- Advanced Care Research Centre, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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16
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Vandenput L, Johansson H, McCloskey EV, Liu E, Åkesson KE, Anderson FA, Azagra R, Bager CL, Beaudart C, Bischoff-Ferrari HA, Biver E, Bruyère O, Cauley JA, Center JR, Chapurlat R, Christiansen C, Cooper C, Crandall CJ, Cummings SR, da Silva JAP, Dawson-Hughes B, Diez-Perez A, Dufour AB, Eisman JA, Elders PJM, Ferrari S, Fujita Y, Fujiwara S, Glüer CC, Goldshtein I, Goltzman D, Gudnason V, Hall J, Hans D, Hoff M, Hollick RJ, Huisman M, Iki M, Ish-Shalom S, Jones G, Karlsson MK, Khosla S, Kiel DP, Koh WP, Koromani F, Kotowicz MA, Kröger H, Kwok T, Lamy O, Langhammer A, Larijani B, Lippuner K, Mellström D, Merlijn T, Nordström A, Nordström P, O'Neill TW, Obermayer-Pietsch B, Ohlsson C, Orwoll ES, Pasco JA, Rivadeneira F, Schei B, Schott AM, Shiroma EJ, Siggeirsdottir K, Simonsick EM, Sornay-Rendu E, Sund R, Swart KMA, Szulc P, Tamaki J, Torgerson DJ, van Schoor NM, van Staa TP, Vila J, Wareham NJ, Wright NC, Yoshimura N, Zillikens MC, Zwart M, Harvey NC, Lorentzon M, Leslie WD, Kanis JA. Update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX: a systematic review of potential cohorts and analysis plan. Osteoporos Int 2022; 33:2103-2136. [PMID: 35639106 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-022-06435-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2022] [Accepted: 05/18/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
We describe the collection of cohorts together with the analysis plan for an update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX with respect to current and novel risk factors. The resource comprises 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. INTRODUCTION The availability of the fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® has substantially enhanced the targeting of treatment to those at high risk of fracture with FRAX now incorporated into more than 100 clinical osteoporosis guidelines worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine whether the current algorithms can be further optimised with respect to current and novel risk factors. METHODS A computerised literature search was performed in PubMed from inception until May 17, 2019, to identify eligible cohorts for updating the FRAX coefficients. Additionally, we searched the abstracts of conference proceedings of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, European Calcified Tissue Society and World Congress of Osteoporosis. Prospective cohort studies with data on baseline clinical risk factors and incident fractures were eligible. RESULTS Of the 836 records retrieved, 53 were selected for full-text assessment after screening on title and abstract. Twelve cohorts were deemed eligible and of these, 4 novel cohorts were identified. These cohorts, together with 60 previously identified cohorts, will provide the resource for constructing an updated version of FRAX comprising 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. For each known and candidate risk factor, multivariate hazard functions for hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture and death will be tested using extended Poisson regression. Sex- and/or ethnicity-specific differences in the weights of the risk factors will be investigated. After meta-analyses of the cohort-specific beta coefficients for each risk factor, models comprising 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density, will be computed. CONCLUSIONS These assembled cohorts and described models will provide the framework for an updated FRAX tool enabling enhanced assessment of fracture risk (PROSPERO (CRD42021227266)).
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Affiliation(s)
- L Vandenput
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
- Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - H Johansson
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - E V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - E Liu
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - K E Åkesson
- Clinical and Molecular Osteoporosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
- Department of Orthopedics, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
| | - F A Anderson
- GLOW Coordinating Center, Center for Outcomes Research, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, USA
| | - R Azagra
- Department of Medicine, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Health Center Badia del Valles, Catalan Institute of Health, Barcelona, Spain
- GROIMAP (Research Group), Unitat de Suport a La Recerca Metropolitana Nord, Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol, Santa Coloma de Gramenet, Barcelona, Spain
| | - C L Bager
- Nordic Bioscience A/S, Herlev, Denmark
| | - C Beaudart
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Aspects of Musculoskeletal Health and Aging, Division of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
| | - H A Bischoff-Ferrari
- Department of Aging Medicine and Aging Research, University Hospital, Zurich, and University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Centre On Aging and Mobility, University of Zurich and City Hospital, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - E Biver
- Division of Bone Diseases, Department of Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals and Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - O Bruyère
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Aspects of Musculoskeletal Health and Aging, Division of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
| | - J A Cauley
- Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, USA
| | - J R Center
- Bone Biology, Healthy Ageing Theme, Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- St Vincent's Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- School of Medicine Sydney, University of Notre Dame Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - R Chapurlat
- INSERM UMR 1033, University of Lyon, Hôpital Edouard Herriot, Lyon, France
| | | | - C Cooper
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- National Institute for Health Research Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospitals Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK
- National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Unit, , University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - C J Crandall
- Division of General Internal Medicine and Health Services Research, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - S R Cummings
- San Francisco Coordinating Center, California Pacific Medical Center Research Institute, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - J A P da Silva
- Coimbra Institute for Clinical and Biomedical Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal
- Rheumatology Department, University Hospital and University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal
| | - B Dawson-Hughes
- Bone Metabolism Laboratory, Jean Mayer US Department of Agriculture Human Nutrition Research Center On Aging, Tufts University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - A Diez-Perez
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital del Mar and CIBERFES, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - A B Dufour
- Marcus Institute for Aging Research, Hebrew SeniorLife, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - J A Eisman
- St Vincent's Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- School of Medicine Sydney, University of Notre Dame Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Osteoporosis and Bone Biology Division, Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - P J M Elders
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC, Location VUmc, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - S Ferrari
- Division of Bone Diseases, Department of Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals and Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Y Fujita
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Kindai University, Osaka, Japan
| | - S Fujiwara
- Department of Pharmacy, Yasuda Women's University, Hiroshima, Japan
| | - C-C Glüer
- Section Biomedical Imaging, Molecular Imaging North Competence Center, Department of Radiology and Neuroradiology, University Medical Center Schleswig-Holstein Kiel, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
| | - I Goldshtein
- Maccabitech Institute of Research and Innovation, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Sackler Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - D Goltzman
- Department of Medicine, McGill University and McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Canada
| | - V Gudnason
- Icelandic Heart Association, Kopavogur, Iceland
- University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - J Hall
- MRC Centre for Reproductive Health, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - D Hans
- Centre of Bone Diseases, Bone and Joint Department, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - M Hoff
- Department of Neuromedicine and Movement Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Rheumatology, St Olavs Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
| | - R J Hollick
- Aberdeen Centre for Arthritis and Musculoskeletal Health, Epidemiology Group, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - M Huisman
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Sociology, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - M Iki
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Kindai University, Osaka, Japan
| | - S Ish-Shalom
- Endocrine Clinic, Elisha Hospital, Haifa, Israel
| | - G Jones
- Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
| | - M K Karlsson
- Clinical and Molecular Osteoporosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
- Department of Orthopaedics, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
| | - S Khosla
- Robert and Arlene Kogod Center On Aging and Division of Endocrinology, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA
| | - D P Kiel
- Marcus Institute for Aging Research, Hebrew SeniorLife, Boston, MA, USA
- Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
| | - W-P Koh
- Healthy Longevity Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research (A*STAR), Singapore, Singapore
| | - F Koromani
- Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - M A Kotowicz
- IMPACT (Institute for Mental and Physical Health and Clinical Translation), Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia
- Barwon Health, Geelong, VIC, Australia
- Department of Medicine - Western Health, The University of Melbourne, St Albans, Victoria, Australia
| | - H Kröger
- Department of Orthopedics and Traumatology, Kuopio University Hospital, Kuopio, Finland
- Kuopio Musculoskeletal Research Unit, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
| | - T Kwok
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Jockey Club Centre for Osteoporosis Care and Control, Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - O Lamy
- Centre of Bone Diseases, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Service of Internal Medicine, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - A Langhammer
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, HUNT Research Centre, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - B Larijani
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinical Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - K Lippuner
- Department of Osteoporosis, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - D Mellström
- Geriatric Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Geriatric Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital Mölndal, Mölndal, Sweden
| | - T Merlijn
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC, Location VUmc, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - A Nordström
- Division of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- School of Sport Sciences, Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - P Nordström
- Unit of Geriatric Medicine, Department of Community Medicine and Rehabilitation, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - T W O'Neill
- National Institute for Health Research Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK
- Centre for Epidemiology Versus Arthritis, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - B Obermayer-Pietsch
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical University Graz, Graz, Austria
- Center for Biomarker Research in Medicine, Graz, Austria
| | - C Ohlsson
- Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Department of Drug Treatment, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Region Västra Götaland, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - E S Orwoll
- Department of Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, USA
| | - J A Pasco
- Institute for Physical and Mental Health and Clinical Translation (IMPACT), Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
- Department of Medicine-Western Health, The University of Melbourne, St Albans, Australia
- Barwon Health, Geelong, Australia
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - F Rivadeneira
- Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - B Schei
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Gynecology, St Olavs Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
| | - A-M Schott
- Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, U INSERM 1290 RESHAPE, Lyon, France
| | - E J Shiroma
- Laboratory of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, National Institute On Aging, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - K Siggeirsdottir
- Icelandic Heart Association, Kopavogur, Iceland
- Janus Rehabilitation, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - E M Simonsick
- Translational Gerontology Branch, National Institute On Aging Intramural Research Program, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | | | - R Sund
- Kuopio Musculoskeletal Research Unit, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
| | - K M A Swart
- Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC, Location VUmc, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - P Szulc
- INSERM UMR 1033, University of Lyon, Hôpital Edouard Herriot, Lyon, France
| | - J Tamaki
- Department of Hygiene and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Educational Foundation of Osaka Medical and Pharmaceutical University, Osaka, Japan
| | - D J Torgerson
- York Trials Unit, Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - N M van Schoor
- Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - T P van Staa
- Centre for Health Informatics, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, School of Health Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
| | - J Vila
- Statistics Support Unit, Hospital del Mar Medical Research Institute, CIBER Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain
| | - N J Wareham
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - N C Wright
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - N Yoshimura
- Department of Preventive Medicine for Locomotive Organ Disorders, The University of Tokyo Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - M C Zillikens
- Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - M Zwart
- Health Center Can Gibert del Plà, Catalan Institute of Health, Girona, Spain
- Department of Medical Sciences, University of Girona, Girona, Spain
- GROIMAP (Research Group), Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol, Barcelona, Spain
| | - N C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK
| | - M Lorentzon
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
- Sahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Geriatric Medicine, Region Västra Götaland, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Mölndal, Sweden
| | - W D Leslie
- Department of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada
| | - J A Kanis
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK.
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17
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McCloskey EV, Chotiyarnwong P, Harvey NC, Lorentzon M, Kanis JA. Population screening for fracture risk in postmenopausal women - a logical step in reducing the osteoporotic fracture burden? Osteoporos Int 2022; 33:1631-1637. [PMID: 35763073 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-022-06419-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2022] [Accepted: 05/03/2022] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- E V McCloskey
- Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, Department of Oncology & Metabolism, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
| | - P Chotiyarnwong
- Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, Department of Oncology & Metabolism, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - N C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - M Lorentzon
- University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - J A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
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18
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Chotiyarnwong P, McCloskey EV, Harvey NC, Lorentzon M, Prieto-Alhambra D, Abrahamsen B, Adachi JD, Borgström F, Bruyere O, Carey JJ, Clark P, Cooper C, Curtis EM, Dennison E, Diaz-Curiel M, Dimai HP, Grigorie D, Hiligsmann M, Khashayar P, Lewiecki EM, Lips P, Lorenc RS, Ortolani S, Papaioannou A, Silverman S, Sosa M, Szulc P, Ward KA, Yoshimura N, Kanis JA. Is it time to consider population screening for fracture risk in postmenopausal women? A position paper from the International Osteoporosis Foundation Epidemiology/Quality of Life Working Group. Arch Osteoporos 2022; 17:87. [PMID: 35763133 PMCID: PMC9239944 DOI: 10.1007/s11657-022-01117-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2022] [Accepted: 05/03/2022] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
The IOF Epidemiology and Quality of Life Working Group has reviewed the potential role of population screening for high hip fracture risk against well-established criteria. The report concludes that such an approach should strongly be considered in many health care systems to reduce the burden of hip fractures. INTRODUCTION The burden of long-term osteoporosis management falls on primary care in most healthcare systems. However, a wide and stable treatment gap exists in many such settings; most of which appears to be secondary to a lack of awareness of fracture risk. Screening is a public health measure for the purpose of identifying individuals who are likely to benefit from further investigations and/or treatment to reduce the risk of a disease or its complications. The purpose of this report was to review the evidence for a potential screening programme to identify postmenopausal women at increased risk of hip fracture. METHODS The approach took well-established criteria for the development of a screening program, adapted by the UK National Screening Committee, and sought the opinion of 20 members of the International Osteoporosis Foundation's Working Group on Epidemiology and Quality of Life as to whether each criterion was met (yes, partial or no). For each criterion, the evidence base was then reviewed and summarized. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION The report concludes that evidence supports the proposal that screening for high fracture risk in primary care should strongly be considered for incorporation into many health care systems to reduce the burden of fractures, particularly hip fractures. The key remaining hurdles to overcome are engagement with primary care healthcare professionals, and the implementation of systems that facilitate and maintain the screening program.
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Affiliation(s)
- P Chotiyarnwong
- Department of Oncology & Metabolism, Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - E V McCloskey
- Department of Oncology & Metabolism, Mellanby Centre for Musculoskeletal Research, MRC Versus Arthritis Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, Northern General Hospital, University of Sheffield, Herries Road, Sheffield, S5 7AU, UK.
| | - N C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - M Lorentzon
- University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - D Prieto-Alhambra
- Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD, UK
- GREMPAL (Grup de Recerca en Malalties Prevalents de L'Aparell Locomotor) Research Group, CIBERFes and Idiap Jordi Gol Primary Care Research Institute, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Gran Via de Les Corts Catalanes, 591 Atico, 08007, Barcelona, Spain
| | - B Abrahamsen
- Department of Clinical Research, Odense Patient Data Exploratory Network, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
- Department of Medicine, Holbæk Hospital, Holbæk, Denmark
| | - J D Adachi
- Department of Medicine, Michael G DeGroote School of Medicine, St Joseph's Healthcare-McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - F Borgström
- Quantify Research, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Learning, Informatics, Management and Ethics (LIME), Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - O Bruyere
- WHO Collaborating Center for Public Health Aspects of Musculo-Skeletal Health and Ageing, Division of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
| | - J J Carey
- School of Medicine, National University of Ireland Galway, Galway, Ireland
- Department of Rheumatology, Galway University Hospitals, Galway, Ireland
| | - P Clark
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit of Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez-Faculty of Medicine, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, UNAM, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - C Cooper
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - E M Curtis
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - E Dennison
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - M Diaz-Curiel
- Hospital Universitario Fundación Jiménez Díaz, Madrid, Spain
| | - H P Dimai
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - D Grigorie
- Carol Davila University of Medicine, Bucharest, Romania
- Department of Endocrinology & Bone Metabolism, National Institute of Endocrinology, Bucharest, Romania
| | - M Hiligsmann
- Department of Health Services Research, CAPHRI Care and Public Health Research Institute, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands
| | - P Khashayar
- Center for Microsystems Technology, Imec and Ghent University, 9050, Ghent, Belgium
| | - E M Lewiecki
- New Mexico Clinical Research & Osteoporosis Center, Albuquerque, NM, USA
| | - P Lips
- Department of Internal Medicine, Endocrine Section & Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - R S Lorenc
- Multidisciplinary Osteoporosis Forum, SOMED, Warsaw, Poland
| | - S Ortolani
- IRCCS Istituto Auxologico, UO Endocrinologia E Malattie del Metabolismo, Milano, Italy
| | - A Papaioannou
- Department of Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
- GERAS Centre for Aging Research, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - S Silverman
- Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - M Sosa
- Bone Metabolic Unit, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Hospital University Insular, Las Palmas, Gran Canaria, Spain
| | - P Szulc
- INSERM UMR 1033, University of Lyon, Hôpital Edouard Herriot, Lyon, France
| | - K A Ward
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - N Yoshimura
- Department of Preventive Medicine for Locomotive Organ Disorders, 22Nd Century Medical and Research Center, University of Tokyo, Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8655, Japan
| | - J A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, Northern General Hospital, University of Sheffield, Herries Road, Sheffield, S5 7AU, UK
- Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
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19
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Allbritton-King JD, Elrod JK, Rosenberg PS, Bhattacharyya T. Reverse engineering the FRAX algorithm: Clinical insights and systematic analysis of fracture risk. Bone 2022; 159:116376. [PMID: 35240349 PMCID: PMC9035136 DOI: 10.1016/j.bone.2022.116376] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2021] [Revised: 01/28/2022] [Accepted: 02/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) is a computational tool developed to predict the 10-year probability of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture based on inputs of patient characteristics, bone mineral density (BMD), and a set of seven clinical risk factors. While the FRAX tool is widely available and clinically validated, its underlying algorithm is not public. The relative contribution and necessity of each input parameter to the final FRAX score is unknown. We systematically collected hip fracture risk scores from the online FRAX calculator for osteopenic Caucasian women across 473,088 unique inputs. This dataset was used to dissect the FRAX algorithm and construct a reverse-engineered fracture risk model to assess the relative contribution of each input variable. Within the reverse-engineered model, age and T-Score were the strongest contributors to hip fracture risk, while BMI had marginal contribution. Of the clinical risk factors, parent history of fracture and ongoing glucocorticoid treatment had the largest additive effect on risk score. A generalized linear model largely recapitulated the FRAX tool with an R2 of 0.91. Observed effect sizes were then compared to a true patient population by creating a logistic regression model of the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) cohort, which closely paralleled the effect sizes seen in the reverse-engineered fracture risk model. Analysis identified several clinically relevant observations of interest to FRAX users. The role of major osteoporotic fracture risk prediction in contributing to an indication of treatment need is very narrow, as the hip fracture risk prediction accounted for 98% of treatment indications for the SOF cohort. Removing any risk factor from the model substantially decreased its accuracy and confirmed that more parsimonious models are not ideal for fracture prediction. For women 65 years and older with a previous fracture, 98% of FRAX combinations exceeded the treatment threshold, regardless of T-score or other factors. For women age 70+ with a parent history of fracture, 99% of FRAX combinations exceed the treatment threshold. Based on these analyses, we re-affirm the efficacy of the FRAX as the best tool for fracture risk assessment and provide deep insight into the interplay between risk factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jules D Allbritton-King
- Clinical and Investigative Orthopedics Surgery Unit, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, National Institutes of Health, United States of America
| | - Julia K Elrod
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, United States of America
| | - Philip S Rosenberg
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, United States of America
| | - Timothy Bhattacharyya
- Clinical and Investigative Orthopedics Surgery Unit, National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, National Institutes of Health, United States of America.
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García-Sempere A, Hurtado I, Peiró S, Sánchez-Sáez F, Santaana Y, Rodríguez-Bernal C, Sanfélix-Gimeno G, Sanfélix-Genovés J. Predictive Performance of the FRAX Tool Calibrated for Spain vs. an Age and Sex Model: Prospective Cohort Study with 9082 Women and Men Followed for up to 8 Years. J Clin Med 2022; 11:jcm11092409. [PMID: 35566539 PMCID: PMC9101808 DOI: 10.3390/jcm11092409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2022] [Revised: 04/19/2022] [Accepted: 04/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
In Spain, the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) was adapted using studies with a small number of patients, and there are only a few external validation studies that present limitations. In this prospective cohort study, we compared the performance of FRAX and a simple age and sex model. We used data from the ESOSVAL cohort, a cohort composed of a Mediterranean population of 11,035 women and men aged 50 years and over, followed for up to 8 years, to compare the discrimination, calibration, and reclassification of FRAX calibrated for Spain and a logistic model including only age and sex as variables. We found virtually identical AUC, 83.55% for FRAX (CI 95%: 80.46, 86.63) and 84.10% for the age and sex model (CI 95%: 80.91, 87.29), and there were similar observed-to-predicted ratios. In the reclassification analyses, patients with a hip fracture that were reclassified correctly as high risk by FRAX, compared to the age and sex model, were −2.86%, using either the 3% threshold or the observed incidence, 1.54% (95%CI: −8.44, 2.72 for the 3% threshold; 95%CI: −7.68, 1.97 for the incidence threshold). Remarkably simple and inexpensive tools that are easily transferable into electronic medical record environments may offer a comparable predictive ability to that of FRAX.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aníbal García-Sempere
- Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research of Valencia Region (FISABIO), 46020 Valencia, Spain; (A.G.-S.); (I.H.); (S.P.); (F.S.-S.); (Y.S.); (C.R.-B.); (J.S.-G.)
- Spanish Network for Research in Primary Care and Chronicity (RICAPPS), 46020 Valencia, Spain
| | - Isabel Hurtado
- Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research of Valencia Region (FISABIO), 46020 Valencia, Spain; (A.G.-S.); (I.H.); (S.P.); (F.S.-S.); (Y.S.); (C.R.-B.); (J.S.-G.)
- Spanish Network for Research in Primary Care and Chronicity (RICAPPS), 46020 Valencia, Spain
| | - Salvador Peiró
- Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research of Valencia Region (FISABIO), 46020 Valencia, Spain; (A.G.-S.); (I.H.); (S.P.); (F.S.-S.); (Y.S.); (C.R.-B.); (J.S.-G.)
- Spanish Network for Research in Primary Care and Chronicity (RICAPPS), 46020 Valencia, Spain
| | - Francisco Sánchez-Sáez
- Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research of Valencia Region (FISABIO), 46020 Valencia, Spain; (A.G.-S.); (I.H.); (S.P.); (F.S.-S.); (Y.S.); (C.R.-B.); (J.S.-G.)
| | - Yared Santaana
- Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research of Valencia Region (FISABIO), 46020 Valencia, Spain; (A.G.-S.); (I.H.); (S.P.); (F.S.-S.); (Y.S.); (C.R.-B.); (J.S.-G.)
| | - Clara Rodríguez-Bernal
- Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research of Valencia Region (FISABIO), 46020 Valencia, Spain; (A.G.-S.); (I.H.); (S.P.); (F.S.-S.); (Y.S.); (C.R.-B.); (J.S.-G.)
- Spanish Network for Research in Primary Care and Chronicity (RICAPPS), 46020 Valencia, Spain
| | - Gabriel Sanfélix-Gimeno
- Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research of Valencia Region (FISABIO), 46020 Valencia, Spain; (A.G.-S.); (I.H.); (S.P.); (F.S.-S.); (Y.S.); (C.R.-B.); (J.S.-G.)
- Spanish Network for Research in Primary Care and Chronicity (RICAPPS), 46020 Valencia, Spain
- Correspondence:
| | - José Sanfélix-Genovés
- Foundation for the Promotion of Health and Biomedical Research of Valencia Region (FISABIO), 46020 Valencia, Spain; (A.G.-S.); (I.H.); (S.P.); (F.S.-S.); (Y.S.); (C.R.-B.); (J.S.-G.)
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21
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Möller S, Skjødt MK, Yan L, Abrahamsen B, Lix LM, McCloskey EV, Johansson H, Harvey NC, Kanis JA, Rubin KH, Leslie WD. Prediction of imminent fracture risk in Canadian women and men aged 45 years or older: external validation of the Fracture Risk Evaluation Model (FREM). Osteoporos Int 2022; 33:57-66. [PMID: 34596704 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-021-06165-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2021] [Accepted: 09/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
The Fracture Risk Evaluation Model (FREM) identifies individuals at high imminent risk of major osteoporotic fractures. We validated FREM on 74,828 individuals from Manitoba, Canada, and found significant fracture risk stratification for all FREM scores. FREM performed better than age alone but not as well as FRAX® with BMD. INTRODUCTION The FREM is a tool developed from Danish public health registers (hospital diagnoses) to identify individuals over age 45 years at high imminent risk of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fracture (HF). In this study, our aim was to examine the ability of FREM to identify individuals at high imminent fracture risk in women and men from Manitoba, Canada. METHODS We used the population-based Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) Program registry, and identified women and men aged 45 years or older undergoing baseline BMD assessment with 2 years of follow-up data. From linked population-based data sources, we constructed FREM scores using up to 10 years of prior healthcare information. RESULTS The study population comprised 74,828 subjects, and during the 2 years of observation, 1612 incident MOF and 299 incident HF occurred. We found significant fracture risk stratification for all FREM scores, with AUC estimates of 0.63-0.66 for MOF for both sexes and 0.84 for women and 0.65-0.67 for men for HF. FREM performed better than age alone but not as well as FRAX® with BMD. The inclusion of physician claims data gave slightly better performance than hospitalization data alone. Overall calibration for 1-year MOF prediction was reasonable, but HF prediction was overestimated. CONCLUSION In conclusion, the FREM algorithm shows significant fracture risk stratification when applied to an independent clinical population from Manitoba, Canada. Overall calibration for MOF prediction was good, but hip fracture risk was systematically overestimated indicating the need for recalibration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sören Möller
- Open Patient data Explorative Network, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark.
- Research unit OPEN, Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
| | - Michael K Skjødt
- Research unit OPEN, Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
- Department of Medicine, Holbæk Hospital, Holbæk, Denmark
| | - Lin Yan
- University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada
| | - Bo Abrahamsen
- Research unit OPEN, Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
- Department of Medicine, Holbæk Hospital, Holbæk, Denmark
| | - Lisa M Lix
- University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
- Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing (CIMA), Mellanby Centre for Bone Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Helena Johansson
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK
| | - John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
- Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Katrine Hass Rubin
- Open Patient data Explorative Network, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
- Research unit OPEN, Department of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
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22
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Leslie WD, Kanis JA. Calibration of FRAX: A Journey, not a Destination. Calcif Tissue Int 2021; 109:597-599. [PMID: 34304290 DOI: 10.1007/s00223-021-00891-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2021] [Accepted: 07/05/2021] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- William D Leslie
- Department of Medicine (C5121), University of Manitoba, 409 Tache Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
| | - John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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23
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Bibliometric analysis of global research trends on male osteoporosis: a neglected field deserves more attention. Arch Osteoporos 2021; 16:154. [PMID: 34632530 DOI: 10.1007/s11657-021-01016-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2021] [Accepted: 09/27/2021] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED We analyzed the knowledge structure, current status, and future directions of 3243 publications on male osteoporosis by employing bibliometric analysis. Our results indicated that Osteoporosis International was the most influential journal in this field. And the study of epidemiology and risk factors has been recognized as a hot research topic in recent years. This study also calls for more attention to be given on male osteoporosis research. INTRODUCTION Male osteoporosis is increasing as a serious health problem worldwide with the aging of population. However, a comprehensive understanding of the current status and future trends in this field is lacking to date. The goal of the present study was to summarize and visualize the knowledge framework, research hotspots, and emerging trends of male osteoporosis research based on the bibliometric method. METHODS Scientific publications regarding male osteoporosis from 1998 to 2020 were downloaded from the SCIE database. VOSviewer, CiteSpace, and online bibliometric website were used for this study. The main analyses include cooperative relationships between countries/institutions/authors, co-citation analysis of authors/journals, and co-occurrence analysis of keywords/subject categories, as well as analyses on keyword/reference bursts. RESULTS A total of 3243 publications with 128,751 citations were identified. Despite experiencing a period of increase in the number of publications, incentives for conducting male osteoporosis research seem to have decreased during recent years. The USA has the most prominent contributions, as reflected by most publications and the highest H-index value. Oregon Health and Science University was the most prolific institution within this domain. The most influential academic journal was Osteoporosis International. Keywords were categorized into four clusters: basic research, epidemiology and risk factors, diagnostic studies, treatment and fracture prevention. Burst keyword detection suggested that the following research directions including "obesity," "zoledronic acid," "DXA," "inflammation," "fall," "microarchitecture," and "sarcopenia" remain research hotspots in the near future and deserve our further attention. CONCLUSIONS This is the first bibliometric analysis that provides a comprehensive overview of male osteoporosis research, which may provide helpful references for investigators to further explore hot issues in this field.
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Harvey NC, Kanis JA, Liu E, Vandenput L, Lorentzon M, Cooper C, McCloskey E, Johansson H. Impact of population-based or targeted BMD interventions on fracture incidence. Osteoporos Int 2021; 32:1973-1979. [PMID: 33758991 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-021-05917-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/28/2020] [Accepted: 03/08/2021] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
Abstract
In a simulated population of older women, we demonstrate that an upward shift in the population distribution of BMD by approximately 0.3SD may decrease the risk of incident fractures to the same extent as an intervention targeted to those with T-score less than -2.5. INTRODUCTION To investigate the impact of population level or targeted alterations to BMD on the incidence of fractures. METHODS We used a simulated cohort of 49,242 women with age and body mass index distribution from the UK, and prevalence of other clinical risk factors based on European FRAX® cohorts. Using FRAX probabilities of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF: hip, clinical vertebral, distal forearm, proximal humerus) and hip fracture, calculated with femoral neck BMD, we determined the expected number of fractures over 10 years, stratified by 10-year age band from 50 years. We then investigated the effect of (i) uplifting all individuals with T-score below -2.5 to be exactly -2.5 (high-risk strategy) and (ii) shifting the entire BMD distribution upwards (population strategy). RESULTS Overall, the high-risk strategy prevented 573 MOF including 465 hip fractures. Moving the BMD T-score distribution upward by 0.27SD gave an equivalent reduction in numbers of MOF; for hip fractures prevented, this was 0.35SD. A global upward 0.25SD BMD shift prevented 524 MOF including 354 hip fractures, with corresponding figures for an increase of 0.5SD being 973 MOF prevented and 640 hip fractures prevented. The ratio of hip fracture to MOF prevented differed by the two approaches, such that for the high-risk strategy, the ratio was 0.81, and for the population strategy was 0.68 (0.25SD BMD uplift) and 0.66 (0.5SD BMD uplift). The numbers of fractures prevented by the high-risk strategy increased with age. In contrast, the age-related increase in numbers of fractures prevented with the population strategy rose with age, but peaked in the 70-79-year age band and declined thereafter. CONCLUSIONS Both strategies reduced the numbers of expected incident fractures, with contrasting relative impacts by age and fracture site. Whilst the current analysis used UK/European anthropometric/risk factor distributions, further analyses calibrated to the distributions in other settings globally may be readily undertaken. Overall, these findings support the investigation of both population level interventions and those targeted at high fracture risk groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- N C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO16 6YD, UK.
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Tremona Road, Southampton, UK.
| | - J A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - E Liu
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - L Vandenput
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - M Lorentzon
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Geriatric Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Geriatric Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Mölndal, Sweden
| | - C Cooper
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO16 6YD, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Tremona Road, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - E McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Centre for Integrated research in Musculoskeletal Ageing (CIMA), Mellanby Centre for Bone Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - H Johansson
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Mary McKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
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McArthur C, Ioannidis G, Jantzi M, Adachi JD, Giangregorio L, Hirdes J, Papaioannou A. Development and validation of the fracture risk scale home care (FRS-HC) that predicts one-year incident fracture: an electronic record-linked longitudinal cohort study. BMC Musculoskelet Disord 2020; 21:499. [PMID: 32723311 PMCID: PMC7388464 DOI: 10.1186/s12891-020-03529-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2020] [Accepted: 07/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Fractures have dire consequences including pain, immobility, and death. People receiving home care are at higher risk for fractures than the general population. Yet, current fracture risk assessment tools require additional testing and assume a 10-year survival rate, when many die within one year. Our objectives were to develop and validate a scale that predicts one-year incident hip fracture using the home care resident assessment instrument (RAI-HC). METHODS This is a retrospective cohort study of linked population data. People receiving home care in Ontario, Canada between April 1st, 2011 and March 31st, 2015 were included. Clinical data were obtained from the RAI-HC which was linked to the Discharge Abstract Database and National Ambulatory Care Reporting System to capture one-year incident hip fractures. Seventy-five percent (n = 238,011) of the sample were randomly assigned to a derivation and 25% (n = 79,610) to a validation sample. A decision tree was created with the derivation sample using known fracture risk factors. The final nodes of the decision tree were collapsed into 8 risk levels and logistic regression was performed to determine odds of having a fracture for each level. c-Statistics were calculated to compare the discriminative properties of the full, derivation, and validation samples. RESULTS Approximately 60% of the sample were women and 53% were 80 years and older. A total of 11,526 (3.6%) fractures were captured over the 1-year time period. Of these, 5057 (43.9%) were hip fractures. The proportion who experienced a hip fracture in the next year ranged from 0.3% in the lowest risk level to 5.2% in the highest risk level. People in the highest risk level had 18.8 times higher odds (95% confidence interval, 14.6 to 24.3) of experiencing a hip fracture within one year than those in the lowest. c-Statistics were similar for the full (0.658), derivation (0.662), and validation (0.645) samples. CONCLUSIONS The FRS-HC predicts hip fracture over one year and should be used to guide clinical care planning for home care recipients at high risk for fracture. Our next steps are to develop a fracture risk clinical assessment protocol to link treatment recommendations with identified fracture risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caitlin McArthur
- McMaster University, 1200 Main Street, Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 4L8, Canada.
- GERAS Centre for Aging Research, 88 Maplewood Avenue, 88 Maplewood Avenue, Hamilton, Ontario, L8M 1W9, Canada.
| | - George Ioannidis
- McMaster University, 1200 Main Street, Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 4L8, Canada
- GERAS Centre for Aging Research, 88 Maplewood Avenue, 88 Maplewood Avenue, Hamilton, Ontario, L8M 1W9, Canada
| | - Micaela Jantzi
- University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada
| | - Jonathon D Adachi
- McMaster University, 1200 Main Street, Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 4L8, Canada
| | - Lora Giangregorio
- University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada
- Schlegel-UW Research Institute for Aging Research, 250 Laurelwood Drive, Waterloo, Ontario, N2J OE2, Canada
| | - John Hirdes
- University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1, Canada
| | - Alexandra Papaioannou
- McMaster University, 1200 Main Street, Hamilton, Ontario, L8S 4L8, Canada
- GERAS Centre for Aging Research, 88 Maplewood Avenue, 88 Maplewood Avenue, Hamilton, Ontario, L8M 1W9, Canada
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Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW Identifying individuals at high fracture risk can be used to target those likely to derive the greatest benefit from treatment. This narrative review examines recent developments in using specific risk factors used to assess fracture risk, with a focus on publications in the last 3 years. RECENT FINDINGS There is expanding evidence for the recognition of individual clinical risk factors and clinical use of composite scores in the general population. Unfortunately, enthusiasm is dampened by three pragmatic randomized trials that raise questions about the effectiveness of widespread population screening using clinical fracture prediction tools given suboptimal participation and adherence. There have been refinements in risk assessment in special populations: men, patients with diabetes, and secondary causes of osteoporosis. New evidence supports the value of vertebral fracture assessment (VFA), high resolution peripheral quantitative CT (HR-pQCT), opportunistic screening using CT, skeletal strength assessment with finite element analysis (FEA), and trabecular bone score (TBS). The last 3 years have seen important developments in the area of fracture risk assessment, both in the research setting and translation to clinical practice. The next challenge will be incorporating these advances into routine work flows that can improve the identification of high risk individuals at the population level and meaningfully impact the ongoing crisis in osteoporosis management.
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Affiliation(s)
- William D Leslie
- Departments of Medicine and Radiology, University of Manitoba, 409 Tache Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba, R2H 2A6, Canada.
| | - Suzanne N Morin
- Department of Medicine, McGill University- McGill University Health Center, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
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27
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Ladang A, Beaudart C, Locquet M, Reginster JY, Bruyère O, Cavalier E. Evaluation of a Panel of MicroRNAs that Predicts Fragility Fracture Risk: A Pilot Study. Calcif Tissue Int 2020; 106:239-247. [PMID: 31729554 DOI: 10.1007/s00223-019-00628-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2019] [Accepted: 10/29/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
The assessment of fragility fracture risk based on bone densitometry and FRAX°, although commonly used, has shown some limitations. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are promising biomarkers known to regulate post-transcriptional gene expression. Many studies have already shown that microRNAs are involved in bone homeostasis by modulating osteoblast and osteoclast gene expression. In this pilot study, we investigated the ability of an miRNA panel (namely, the OsteomiR° score) to predict fragility fracture risk in older people. miRNAs were extracted from the sera of 17 persons who developed a fracture within 3 years of collecting the serum and 16 persons who did not experience fractures in the same period. Nineteen miRNAs known to be involved in bone homeostasis were assessed, and 10 miRNAs were employed to calculate the OsteomiR° score. We found a trend towards higher OsteomiR° scores in individuals who experienced fractures compared to control subjects. The most suitable cut-off that maximized sensitivity and specificity was determined by ROC curve analysis, and a positive predictive value of 68% and a sensitivity of 76% were obtained. The OsteomiR° score was higher in osteopenic and osteoporotic subjects compared to subjects with a normal T score. Additionally, the OsteomiR° score predicted more fracture events than the recommended "need-to-treat" thresholds based on FRAX° 10-year probability. miRNAs reflect impairments in bone homeostasis several years before the occurrence of a fracture. The OsteomiR° score seems to be a promising miRNA panel for fragility fracture risk prediction and might have added value compared to FRAX°. Given the limited cohort size, further studies should be dedicated to validating the OsteomiR° score.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aurélie Ladang
- Clinical Chemistry Department / CHU de Liège, Avenue de L'Hopital, 1, 4000, Liège, Belgium.
| | - Charlotte Beaudart
- Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics Department, ULiège, Liège, Belgium
| | - Médéa Locquet
- Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics Department, ULiège, Liège, Belgium
| | - Jean-Yves Reginster
- Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics Department, ULiège, Liège, Belgium
- Chair for Biomarkers of Chronic Diseases, Biochemistry Department, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
- Centre Académique de Recherche Et D'Expérimentation en Santé (CARES SPRL), Liège, Belgium
| | - Olivier Bruyère
- Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics Department, ULiège, Liège, Belgium
| | - Etienne Cavalier
- Clinical Chemistry Department / CHU de Liège, Avenue de L'Hopital, 1, 4000, Liège, Belgium
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28
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Wu Q, Xiao X, Xu Y. Performance of FRAX in Predicting Fractures in US Postmenopausal Women with Varied Race and Genetic Profiles. J Clin Med 2020; 9:E285. [PMID: 31968614 PMCID: PMC7019759 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9010285] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2019] [Revised: 01/06/2020] [Accepted: 01/14/2020] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Whether the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) performed differently in estimating the 10-year fracture probability in women of different genetic profiling and race remained unclear. METHODS The genomic data in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study was analyzed (n = 23,981). The genetic risk score (GRS) was calculated from 14 fracture-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for each participant. FRAX without bone mineral density (BMD) was used to estimate fracture probability. RESULTS FRAX significantly overestimated the risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) in the WHI study. The most significant overestimation was observed in women with low GRS (predicted/observed ratio (POR): 1.61, 95% CI: 1.45-1.79) specifically Asian women (POR: 3.5, 95% CI 2.48-4.81) and in African American women (POR: 2.59, 95% CI: 2.33-2.87). Compared to the low GRS group, the 10-year probability of MOF adjusted for the FRAX score was 21% and 30% higher in the median GRS group and high GRS group, respectively. Asian, African American, and Hispanic women respectively had a 78%, 76%, and 56% lower hazard than Caucasian women after the FRAX score was adjusted. The results were similar for hip fractures. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggested the FRAX performance varies significantly by both genetic profile and race in postmenopausal women.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qing Wu
- Nevada Institute of Personalized Medicine, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA; (X.X.); (Y.X.)
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, University of Nevada Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA
| | - Xiangxue Xiao
- Nevada Institute of Personalized Medicine, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA; (X.X.); (Y.X.)
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, University of Nevada Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA
| | - Yingke Xu
- Nevada Institute of Personalized Medicine, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA; (X.X.); (Y.X.)
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, University of Nevada Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA
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Holloway-Kew KL, Zhang Y, Betson AG, Anderson KB, Hans D, Hyde NK, Nicholson GC, Pocock NA, Kotowicz MA, Pasco JA. How well do the FRAX (Australia) and Garvan calculators predict incident fractures? Data from the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Osteoporos Int 2019; 30:2129-2139. [PMID: 31317250 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-019-05088-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2018] [Accepted: 07/09/2019] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
UNLABELLED This study reports that both FRAX and Garvan calculators underestimated fractures in Australian men and women, particularly in those with osteopenia or osteoporosis. Major osteoporotic fractures were poorly predicted, while both calculators performed acceptably well for hip fractures. INTRODUCTION This study assessed the ability of the FRAX (Australia) and Garvan calculators to predict fractures in Australian women and men. METHODS Women (n = 809) and men (n = 821) aged 50-90 years, enrolled in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study, were included. Fracture risk was estimated using FRAX and Garvan calculators with and without femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) (FRAXBMD, FRAXnoBMD, GarvanBMD, GarvannoBMD). Incident major osteoporotic (MOF), fragility, and hip fractures over the following 10 years were verified radiologically. Differences between observed and predicted numbers of fractures were assessed using a chi-squared test. Diagnostics indexes were calculated. RESULTS In women, 115 MOF, 184 fragility, and 42 hip fractures occurred. For men, there were 73, 109, and 17 fractures, respectively. FRAX underestimated MOFs, regardless of sex or inclusion of BMD. FRAX accurately predicted hip fractures, except in women with BMD (20 predicted, p = 0.004). Garvan underestimated fragility fractures except in men using BMD (88 predicted, p = 0.109). Garvan accurately predicted hip fractures except for women without BMD (12 predicted, p < 0.001). Fractures were underestimated primarily in the osteopenia and osteoporosis groups; MOFs in the normal BMD group were only underestimated by FRAXBMD and fragility fractures by GarvannoBMD, both in men. AUROCs were not different between scores with and without BMD, except for fragility fractures predicted by Garvan in women (0.696, 95% CI 0.652-0.739 and 0.668, 0.623-0.712, respectively, p = 0.008) and men, which almost reached significance (0.683, 0.631-0.734, and 0.667, 0.615-0.719, respectively, p = 0.051). Analyses of sensitivity and specificity showed overall that MOFs and fragility fractures were poorly predicted by both FRAX and Garvan, while hip fractures were acceptably predicted. CONCLUSIONS Overall, the FRAX and Garvan calculators underestimated MOF and fragility fractures, particularly in individuals with osteopenia or osteoporosis. Hip fractures were predicted better by both calculators. AUROC analyses suggest that GarvanBMD performed better than GarvannoBMD for prediction of fragility fractures.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Y Zhang
- Department of Medicine-Western Health, Melbourne Medical School, The University of Melbourne, St Albans, Australia
| | - A G Betson
- School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
| | - K B Anderson
- School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
| | - D Hans
- Center of Bone Diseases, Bone & Joint Department, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - N K Hyde
- School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
| | - G C Nicholson
- Rural Clinical School, The University of Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia
| | - N A Pocock
- University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - M A Kotowicz
- School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
- Center of Bone Diseases, Bone & Joint Department, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Barwon Health, Geelong, Australia
| | - J A Pasco
- School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
- Center of Bone Diseases, Bone & Joint Department, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Barwon Health, Geelong, Australia
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Kanis JA, Cooper C, Rizzoli R, Reginster JY. European guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. Osteoporos Int 2019; 30:3-44. [PMID: 30324412 PMCID: PMC7026233 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-018-4704-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 904] [Impact Index Per Article: 180.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2018] [Accepted: 09/12/2018] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
Guidance is provided in a European setting on the assessment and treatment of postmenopausal women at risk from fractures due to osteoporosis. INTRODUCTION The International Osteoporosis Foundation and European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis published guidance for the diagnosis and management of osteoporosis in 2013. This manuscript updates these in a European setting. METHODS Systematic reviews were updated. RESULTS The following areas are reviewed: the role of bone mineral density measurement for the diagnosis of osteoporosis and assessment of fracture risk; general and pharmacological management of osteoporosis; monitoring of treatment; assessment of fracture risk; case-finding strategies; investigation of patients; health economics of treatment. The update includes new information on the evaluation of bone microstructure evaluation in facture risk assessment, the role of FRAX® and Fracture Liaison Services in secondary fracture prevention, long-term effects on fracture risk of dietary intakes, and increased fracture risk on stopping drug treatment. CONCLUSIONS A platform is provided on which specific guidelines can be developed for national use.
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Affiliation(s)
- J A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.
- Mary McKillop Health Institute, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - C Cooper
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - R Rizzoli
- University Hospitals and Faculty of Medicine of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - J-Y Reginster
- Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
- Prince Mutaib Chair for Biomarkers of Osteoporosis, Biochemistry Department, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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Abstract
This paper reviews the research programme that went into the development of FRAX® and its impact in the 10 years since its release in 2008. INTRODUCTION Osteoporosis is defined on the measurement of bone mineral density though the clinical consequence is fracture. The sensitivity of bone mineral density measurements for fracture prediction is low, leading to the development of FRAX to better calculate the likelihood of fracture and target anti-osteoporosis treatments. METHODS The method used in this paper is literature review. RESULTS FRAX, developed over an 8-year period, was launched in 2008. Since the launch of FRAX, models have been made available for 64 countries and in 31 languages covering more than 80% of the world population. CONCLUSION FRAX provides an advance in fracture risk assessment and a reference technology platform for future improvements in performance characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.
- Mary McKillop Research Institute, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - Helena Johansson
- Mary McKillop Research Institute, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK
- Mellanby Centre for Bone Research, Department of Oncology and Metabolism, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
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Shepstone L, McCloskey E. A closer look at SCOOP: screening for fracture prevention - Authors' reply. Lancet 2018; 392:552-553. [PMID: 30152384 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(18)31385-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2018] [Accepted: 06/11/2018] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Lee Shepstone
- School of Medicine, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.
| | - Eugene McCloskey
- Academic Unit of Bone Metabolism, Department of Oncology and Metabolism, The Mellanby Centre For Bone Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
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Mirzaei A, Jahed SA, Nojomi M, Rajaei A, Zabihiyeganeh M. A study of the value of trabecular bone score in fracture risk assessment of postmenopausal women. Taiwan J Obstet Gynecol 2018; 57:389-393. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tjog.2018.04.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/15/2018] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
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Harvey NC, Odén A, Orwoll E, Lapidus J, Kwok T, Karlsson MK, Rosengren BE, Ljunggren Ö, Cooper C, McCloskey E, Kanis JA, Ohlsson C, Mellström D, Johansson H. Falls Predict Fractures Independently of FRAX Probability: A Meta-Analysis of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study. J Bone Miner Res 2018; 33:510-516. [PMID: 29220072 PMCID: PMC5842893 DOI: 10.1002/jbmr.3331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2017] [Revised: 10/13/2017] [Accepted: 10/28/2017] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
Although prior falls are a well-established predictor of future fracture, there is currently limited evidence regarding the specific value of falls history in fracture risk assessment relative to that of other clinical risk factors and bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. We therefore investigated, across the three Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study cohorts, whether past falls predicted future fracture independently of FRAX and whether these associations varied with age and follow-up time. Elderly men were recruited from MrOS Sweden, Hong Kong, and USA. Baseline data included falls history (over the preceding 12 months), clinical risk factors, BMD at femoral neck, and calculated FRAX probabilities. An extension of Poisson regression was used to investigate the associations between falls, FRAX probability, and incident fracture, adjusting for age, time since baseline, and cohort in base models; further models were used to investigate interactions with age and follow-up time. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to synthesize the individual country associations. Information on falls and FRAX probability was available for 4365 men in USA (mean age 73.5 years; mean follow-up 10.8 years), 1823 men in Sweden (mean age 75.4 years; mean follow-up 8.7 years), and 1669 men in Hong Kong (mean age 72.4 years; mean follow-up 9.8 years). Rates of past falls were similar at 20%, 16%, and 15%, respectively. Across all cohorts, past falls predicted incident fracture at any site (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49, 1.90), major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (HR = 1.56; 95% CI 1.33, 1.83), and hip fracture (HR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.27, 2.05). Relationships between past falls and incident fracture remained robust after adjustment for FRAX probability: adjusted HR (95% CI) any fracture: 1.63 (1.45, 1.83); MOF: 1.51 (1.32, 1.73); and hip: 1.54 (1.21, 1.95). In conclusion, past falls predicted incident fracture independently of FRAX probability, confirming the potential value of falls history in fracture risk assessment. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research Published by Wiley Periodicals Inc.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology UnitUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research CentreUniversity of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation TrustSouthamptonUK
| | - Anders Odén
- Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research (CBAR), Sahlgrenska AcademyUniversity of GothenburgGothenburgSweden
- Centre for Metabolic Bone DiseasesUniversity of SheffieldSheffieldUK
| | - Eric Orwoll
- Oregon Health and Science UniversityPortlandORUSA
| | - Jodi Lapidus
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Division of BiostatisticsOregon Health and Science UniversityPortlandORUSA
| | - Timothy Kwok
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics and School of Public HealthThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong
| | - Magnus K Karlsson
- Clinical and Molecular Osteoporosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences MalmoLund University and Department of Orthopedics, Skane University HospitalMalmoSweden
| | - Björn E Rosengren
- Clinical and Molecular Osteoporosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences MalmoLund University and Department of Orthopedics, Skane University HospitalMalmoSweden
| | - Östen Ljunggren
- Department of Medical SciencesUniversity of UppsalaUppsalaSweden
| | - Cyrus Cooper
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology UnitUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK
- NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research CentreUniversity of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation TrustSouthamptonUK
- NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research CentreUniversity of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Eugene McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone DiseasesUniversity of SheffieldSheffieldUK
- Centre for Integrated Research in Musculoskeletal Ageing (CIMA), Mellanby Centre for Bone ResearchUniversity of SheffieldSheffieldUK
| | - John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone DiseasesUniversity of SheffieldSheffieldUK
- Institute for Health and AgingCatholic University of AustraliaMelbourneAustralia
| | - Claes Ohlsson
- Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research (CBAR), Sahlgrenska AcademyUniversity of GothenburgGothenburgSweden
| | - Dan Mellström
- Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research (CBAR), Sahlgrenska AcademyUniversity of GothenburgGothenburgSweden
| | - Helena Johansson
- Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research (CBAR), Sahlgrenska AcademyUniversity of GothenburgGothenburgSweden
- Centre for Metabolic Bone DiseasesUniversity of SheffieldSheffieldUK
- Institute for Health and AgingCatholic University of AustraliaMelbourneAustralia
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Sousa CDJ, Oliveira MLCD. FRAX Tool in Brazil: an integrative literature review following validation. REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE GERIATRIA E GERONTOLOGIA 2018. [DOI: 10.1590/1981-22562018021.170129] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract The present article is an integrative review the objective of which was to assess research carried out with the FRAX tool in Brazil following its validation, and describe the conclusions drawn. Two databases were used to select the articles (the Capes Portal and the Virtual Health Library), and the sample of this review was the only four articles published in Brazil relating to the FRAX tool following its validation in May 2013. After analyzing the articles, the results demonstrated that despite some limitations the FRAX Tool can be used to reduce the prevalence of fractures due to its simplicity of use, with an emphasis on prediction and orientation, allowing early and safe therapeutic decision-making.
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Goode SC, Beshears JL, Goode RD, Wright TF, King A, Crist BD. Putting the Brakes on Breaks: Osteoporosis Screening and Fracture Prevention. Geriatr Orthop Surg Rehabil 2017; 8:238-243. [PMID: 29318086 PMCID: PMC5755845 DOI: 10.1177/2151458517743153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2017] [Revised: 09/22/2017] [Accepted: 09/28/2017] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction This prospective study sought to implement a screening tool to identify and risk stratify at-risk patients for osteoporosis and evaluate patient knowledge of osteoporosis and fragility fractures in an orthopedic trauma clinic affiliated with a level 1 trauma academic center. Methods Of 297 eligible patients, 291 were screened and risk stratified. Patients completed an osteoporosis screening questionnaire and were risk stratified. Lifestyle advice was given to patients at low fracture risk. A dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scan was ordered for patients at intermediate fracture risk. A referral was initiated for treatment to a bone health specialist in high fracture risk patients. Twenty patients completed a knowledge-based pretest/posttest. Results A total of 291 patients were screened, which represented 97.7% of patients over the age of 50. Of those patients, 165 (56.7%) patients met criteria for further osteoporosis evaluation as they were considered either intermediate or high risk for future fractures. One hundred thirty-six (82.4%) patients were referred for bone mineral density evaluation. For the knowledge-based evaluation portion, patients had a 33% gain in knowledge (P = .0004). The largest knowledge deficit identified pertained to osteoporosis risk factors and lifestyle management. Discussion The use of an osteoporosis screening questionnaire in the orthopedic trauma clinic produced clinically significant improvement in identification of at-risk patients. A lack of knowledge regarding osteoporosis and fragility fractures was found to exist among these patients. Conclusion The implementation of an osteoporosis screening tool to identify, risk stratify, and treat patients with osteoporosis and related fragility fractures can be successfully integrated into a busy clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah C Goode
- College of Nursing, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL, USA
| | | | | | - Theresa F Wright
- College of Nursing, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL, USA
| | - Anita King
- College of Nursing, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL, USA
| | - Brett D Crist
- Boone Hospital Center, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA
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Hoff M, Meyer HE, Skurtveit S, Langhammer A, Søgaard AJ, Syversen U, Dhainaut A, Skovlund E, Abrahamsen B, Schei B. Validation of FRAX and the impact of self-reported falls among elderly in a general population: the HUNT study, Norway. Osteoporos Int 2017; 28:2935-2944. [PMID: 28668994 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-017-4134-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2017] [Accepted: 06/19/2017] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) without bone mineral density (BMD) for hip fracture prediction was validated in a Norwegian population 50-90 years. Fracture risk increased with higher FRAX score, and the observed number of hip fractures agreed well with the predicted number, except for the youngest and oldest men. Self-reported fall was an independent risk factor for fracture in women. INTRODUCTION The primary aim was to validate FRAX without BMD for hip fracture prediction in a Norwegian population of men and women 50-90 years. Secondary, to study whether information of falls could improve prediction of fractures in the subgroup aged 70-90 years. METHODS Data were obtained from the third survey of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT3), the fracture registry in Nord-Trøndelag, and the Norwegian Prescription Database (NorPD), including 15,432 women and 13,585 men. FRAX hip without BMD was calculated, and hip fractures were registered for a median follow-up of 5.2 years. The number of estimated and observed fractures was assessed, ROC curves with area under the curve (AUC), and Cox regression analyses. For the group aged 70-90 years, self-reported falls the last year before HUNT3 were included in the Cox regression model. RESULTS The risk of fracture increased with higher FRAX score. When FRAX groups were categorized in a 10-year percentage risk for hip fracture as follows, <4, 4-7.9, 8-11.9, and ≥12%, the hazard ratio (HR) for hip fracture between the lowest and the highest group was 17.80 (95% CI: 12.86-24.65) among women and 23.40 (13.93-39.30) in men. Observed number of hip fractures agreed quite well with the predicted number, except for the youngest and oldest men. AUC was 0.81 (0.78-0.83) for women and 0.79 (0.76-0.83) for men. Self-reported fall was an independent risk factor for fracture in women (HR 1.64, 1.20-2.24), and among men, this was not significant (1.09, 0.65-1.83). CONCLUSIONS FRAX without BMD predicted hip fracture reasonably well. In the age group 70-90 years, falls seemed to imply an additional risk among women.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Hoff
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, PB 8905, 7491, Trondheim, Norway.
- Department of Rheumatology, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway.
| | - H E Meyer
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Community Medicine and Global Health, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - S Skurtveit
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
- Norwegian Centre for Addiction Research, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - A Langhammer
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, PB 8905, 7491, Trondheim, Norway
| | - A J Søgaard
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - U Syversen
- Department of Endocrinology, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
- Institute of Cancer Research and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - A Dhainaut
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, PB 8905, 7491, Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Rheumatology, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
| | - E Skovlund
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, PB 8905, 7491, Trondheim, Norway
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - B Abrahamsen
- Department of Medicine, Holbæk Hospital, Holbæk, Denmark
- Odense Patient Data Explorative Network, Institute of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
| | - B Schei
- Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine, NTNU, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, PB 8905, 7491, Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Gynecology, St. Olavs Hospital, Trondheim University Hospital, Trondheim, Norway
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Marques A, Lucas R, Simões E, Verstappen SMM, Jacobs JWG, da Silva JAP. Do we need bone mineral density to estimate osteoporotic fracture risk? A 10-year prospective multicentre validation study. RMD Open 2017; 3:e000509. [PMID: 29018567 PMCID: PMC5623321 DOI: 10.1136/rmdopen-2017-000509] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/04/2017] [Revised: 07/30/2017] [Accepted: 08/25/2017] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective Evaluate the performance of FRAX®, with and without bone mineral densitometry (BMD), in predicting the occurrence of fragility fractures over 10 years. Methods Participants aged ≥40 years at baseline, with a complete set of data and a minimum of 8.5 years of follow-up were identified from three cohorts (n=2626). Ten-year fracture risk at baseline were estimated with FRAX® and assessed by comparison with observed fractures and receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results During a mean (SD) follow-up of 9.12 (1.5) years, 178 participants suffered a major osteoporotic (MOP) fracture and 28 sustained a hip fracture. The predictive performance of FRAX® was superior to that of BMD alone for both MOP and hip fractures. The area under the curve (AUC) of FRAX® without BMD was 0.76 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.79) for MOP fractures and 0.78 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.86) for hip fractures. No significant improvements were found when BMD was added to clinical variables to predict either MOP (0.78, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.82, p=0.25) or hip fractures (0.79, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.89, p=0.72). AUCs for FRAX® (with and without BMD) were greater for men than for women. FRAX®, with and without BMD, tended to underestimate the number of MOP fractures and to overestimate the number of hip fractures in females. In men, the number of observed fractures were within the 95% CI of the number predicted, both with and without BMD. Conclusion FRAX® without BMD provided good fracture prediction. Adding BMD to FRAX® did not improve the performance of the tool in the general population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andréa Marques
- Rheumatology Department, Centro Hospitalar e Universitário de Coimbra, Clínica Universitária de Reumatologia, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal.,Coimbra Nursing School, Esenfc, Health Sciences Research Unit: Nursing (UICiSA:E), Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Raquel Lucas
- EPIUnit - Institute of Public Health and Porto Medical School, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | | | - Suzanne M M Verstappen
- Arthritis Research UK Centre for Epidemiology, Division of Musculoskeletal & Dermatological Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.,NIHR Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK
| | - Johannes W G Jacobs
- Department of Rheumatology and Clinical Immunology, University Medical Center, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jose A P da Silva
- Rheumatology Department, Centro Hospitalar e Universitário de Coimbra, Clínica Universitária de Reumatologia, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal
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Martineau P, Leslie WD, Johansson H, Oden A, McCloskey EV, Hans D, Kanis JA. Clinical Utility of Using Lumbar Spine Trabecular Bone Score to Adjust Fracture Probability: The Manitoba BMD Cohort. J Bone Miner Res 2017; 32:1568-1574. [PMID: 28276598 DOI: 10.1002/jbmr.3124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2016] [Revised: 02/10/2017] [Accepted: 03/03/2017] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Decreased lumbar spine trabecular bone score (TBS), a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived image texture measurement, is a risk factor for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF) independent of 10-year fracture probability estimated using FRAX. We determined how often applying the TBS adjustment to fracture probability altered treatment qualification. Using a population-based registry containing all clinical DXA results for Manitoba, Canada, we identified 34,316 women with baseline spine and hip DXA, FRAX-based fracture probability measurements (computed with femoral neck bone mineral density), lumbar spine TBS, and minimum 5 years of observation (mean 8.7 years). Population-based health services data were used to identify incident non-traumatic MOF and HF in 3503 and 945 women, respectively. Baseline MOF and HF probabilities were estimated using FRAX before and after applying the TBS adjustment. Risk recategorization was assessed using net reclassification improvement (NRI) for individual FRAX-based intervention criteria and three national clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) (US National Osteoporosis Foundation, Osteoporosis Canada, and UK National Osteoporosis Guideline Group). Overall, proportions of women reclassified with the TBS adjustment to FRAX were small (less than 5%) with more than 90% of the reclassification occurring close to the intervention threshold. For women close to an intervention cut-off reclassification, rates ranged from 9.0% to 17.9% and were <1% otherwise. There was a small but significant improvement in overall NRI for all individual FRAX-based intervention criteria (range 0.007 to 0.018) and all three national CPGs (range 0.008 to 0.011). NRI was larger in women below age 65 years (up to 0.056 for hip fracture). In summary, a small but significant improvement in MOF and HF risk assessment was found by using lumbar spine TBS to adjust FRAX probability. An improvement in risk reclassification was observed for CPGs from three different countries, with almost all of the benefit found in individuals close to an intervention threshold. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - William D Leslie
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada
| | - Helena Johansson
- Center for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK.,Institute for Health and Aging, Catholic University of Australia, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Anders Oden
- Center for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- Center for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
| | - Didier Hans
- Bone and Joint Department, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - John A Kanis
- Center for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK.,Institute for Health and Aging, Catholic University of Australia, Melbourne, Australia
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Abstract
The characterization of risk factors for fracture that contribute significantly to fracture risk, over and above that provided by the bone mineral density, has stimulated the development of risk assessment tools. The more adequately evaluated tools, all available online, include the FRAX® tool, the Garvan fracture risk calculator and, in the United Kingdom only, QFracture®. Differences in the input variables, output, and model construct give rise to marked differences in the computed risks from each calculator. Reasons for the differences include the derivation of fracture probability (FRAX) rather than incidence (Garvan and QFracture), limited calibration (Garvan), and inappropriate source information (QFracture). These differences need to be taken into account in the evaluation of assessment guidelines.
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Affiliation(s)
- John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK; Institute of Health and Ageing, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia; MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research (CBAR), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Helena Johansson
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK; Centre for Bone and Arthritis Research (CBAR), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Anders Odén
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
| | - William D Leslie
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada
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Abstract
The substantial increase in the burden of non-communicable diseases in general and osteoporosis in particular, necessitates the establishment of efficient and targeted diagnosis and treatment strategies. This chapter reviews and compares different tools for osteoporosis screening and diagnosis; it also provides an overview of different treatment guidelines adopted by countries worldwide. While access to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry to measure bone mineral density (BMD) is limited in most areas in the world, the introduction of risk calculators that combine risk factors, with or without BMD, have resulted in a paradigm shift in osteoporosis screening and management. To-date, forty eight risk assessment tools that allow risk stratification of patients are available, however only few are externally validated and tested in a population-based setting. These include Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool; Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument; Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation; Canadian Association of Radiologists and Osteoporosis Canada calculator; Fracture Risk Assessment Calculator (FRAX); Garvan; and QFracture. These tools vary in the number of risk factors incorporated. We present a detailed analysis of the development, characteristics, validation, performance, advantages and limitations of these tools. The World Health Organization proposes a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry-BMD T-score ≤ -2.5 as an operational diagnostic threshold for osteoporosis, and many countries have also adopted this cut-off as an intervention threshold in their treatment guidelines. With the introduction of the new fracture assessment calculators, many countries chose to include fracture risk as one of the major criteria to initiate osteoporosis treatment. Of the 52 national guidelines identified in 36 countries, 30 included FRAX derived risk in their intervention threshold and 22 were non-FRAX based. No universal tool or guideline approach will address the needs of all countries worldwide. Osteoporosis screening and management guidelines are best tailored according to the needs and resources of individual counties. While few countries have succeeded in generating valuable epidemiological data on osteoporotic fractures, to validate their risk calculators and base their guidelines, many have yet to find the resources to assess variations and secular trends in fractures, the performance of various calculators, and ultimately adopt the most convenient care pathway algorithms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ghada El-Hajj Fuleihan
- Calcium Metabolism and Osteoporosis Program, WHO Collaborating Center for Metabolic Bone Disorders, Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon.
| | - Marlene Chakhtoura
- Calcium Metabolism and Osteoporosis Program, WHO Collaborating Center for Metabolic Bone Disorders, Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - Jane A Cauley
- Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
| | - Nariman Chamoun
- Calcium Metabolism and Osteoporosis Program, WHO Collaborating Center for Metabolic Bone Disorders, Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
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Fracture Prediction With Modified-FRAX in Older HIV-Infected and Uninfected Men. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2017; 72:513-20. [PMID: 27003493 DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000000998] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND FRAX is a validated, computer-based clinical fracture risk calculator that estimates the 10-year risk of major osteoporotic (clinical spine, forearm, hip, or shoulder) fracture, and hip fracture alone. It is widely used for decision making in fracture prevention, but it may underestimate the risk in HIV-infected individuals. Some experts recommend considering HIV as a cause of secondary osteoporosis when calculating FRAX in HIV-infected individuals. METHODS From the Veterans Aging Cohort Study Virtual Cohort, we included 24,451 HIV-infected and uninfected men aged 50-70 years with complete data in the year 2000 to approximate all but 2 factors (ie, history of secondary osteoporosis and parental hip fracture) for modified-FRAX calculation without bone density and 10-year observational data for incident fragility fracture. The accuracy of the modified-FRAX calculation was compared by the observed/estimated (O/E) ratios of fracture by HIV status. RESULTS The accuracy of modified-FRAX was less for HIV-infected [O/E = 1.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45 to 1.81] than uninfected men (O/E = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.19 to 1.40), but improved when HIV was included as a cause of secondary osteoporosis (O/E = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.34). However, only 3%-6% of men with incident fractures were correctly identified by the modified-FRAX using accepted FRAX thresholds for pharmacologic therapy. CONCLUSIONS Modified-FRAX underestimated the fracture rates more in older HIV-infected than in otherwise similar uninfected men. The accuracy improved when HIV was included as a cause of secondary osteoporosis, but it still performed poorly for case finding. Further studies are necessary to determine how to use FRAX or define an HIV-specific index to risk stratify for screening and treatment in older HIV-infected individuals.
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Mazurenko SO, Mazurenko OG, Enkin AA, Staroselsky KG. Use of Dual Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry for Assessment of Fracture Risk in Dialysis Patients. BIOMEDICAL ENGINEERING-MEDITSINSKAYA TEKNIKA 2017. [DOI: 10.1007/s10527-017-9676-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Dagan N, Cohen-Stavi C, Leventer-Roberts M, Balicer RD. External validation and comparison of three prediction tools for risk of osteoporotic fractures using data from population based electronic health records: retrospective cohort study. BMJ 2017; 356:i6755. [PMID: 28104610 PMCID: PMC5244817 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.i6755] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To directly compare the performance and externally validate the three most studied prediction tools for osteoporotic fractures-QFracture, FRAX, and Garvan-using data from electronic health records. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Payer provider healthcare organisation in Israel. PARTICIPANTS 1 054 815 members aged 50 to 90 years for comparison between tools and cohorts of different age ranges, corresponding to those in each tools' development study, for tool specific external validation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE First diagnosis of a major osteoporotic fracture (for QFracture and FRAX tools) and hip fractures (for all three tools) recorded in electronic health records from 2010 to 2014. Observed fracture rates were compared to probabilities predicted retrospectively as of 2010. RESULTS The observed five year hip fracture rate was 2.7% and the rate for major osteoporotic fractures was 7.7%. The areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for hip fracture prediction were 82.7% for QFracture, 81.5% for FRAX, and 77.8% for Garvan. For major osteoporotic fractures, AUCs were 71.2% for QFracture and 71.4% for FRAX. All the tools underestimated the fracture risk, but the average observed to predicted ratios and the calibration slopes of FRAX were closest to 1. Tool specific validation analyses yielded hip fracture prediction AUCs of 88.0% for QFracture (among those aged 30-100 years), 81.5% for FRAX (50-90 years), and 71.2% for Garvan (60-95 years). CONCLUSIONS Both QFracture and FRAX had high discriminatory power for hip fracture prediction, with QFracture performing slightly better. This performance gap was more pronounced in previous studies, likely because of broader age inclusion criteria for QFracture validations. The simpler FRAX performed almost as well as QFracture for hip fracture prediction, and may have advantages if some of the input data required for QFracture are not available. However, both tools require calibration before implementation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Noa Dagan
- Clalit Research Institute, Chief Physician's Office, Clalit Health Services, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Computer Science Department, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheba, Israel
| | - Chandra Cohen-Stavi
- Clalit Research Institute, Chief Physician's Office, Clalit Health Services, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Maya Leventer-Roberts
- Clalit Research Institute, Chief Physician's Office, Clalit Health Services, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Department of Pediatrics, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA
| | - Ran D Balicer
- Clalit Research Institute, Chief Physician's Office, Clalit Health Services, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Epidemiology Department, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheba, Israel
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Kanis JA, Harvey NC, Cooper C, Johansson H, Odén A, McCloskey EV. A systematic review of intervention thresholds based on FRAX : A report prepared for the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group and the International Osteoporosis Foundation. Arch Osteoporos 2016; 11:25. [PMID: 27465509 PMCID: PMC4978487 DOI: 10.1007/s11657-016-0278-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 269] [Impact Index Per Article: 33.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2016] [Accepted: 06/16/2016] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED This systematic review identified assessment guidelines for osteoporosis that incorporate FRAX. The rationale for intervention thresholds is given in a minority of papers. Intervention thresholds (fixed or age-dependent) need to be country-specific. INTRODUCTION In most assessment guidelines, treatment for osteoporosis is recommended in individuals with prior fragility fractures, especially fractures at spine and hip. However, for those without prior fractures, the intervention thresholds can be derived using different methods. The aim of this report was to undertake a systematic review of the available information on the use of FRAX® in assessment guidelines, in particular the setting of thresholds and their validation. METHODS We identified 120 guidelines or academic papers that incorporated FRAX of which 38 provided no clear statement on how the fracture probabilities derived are to be used in decision-making in clinical practice. The remainder recommended a fixed intervention threshold (n = 58), most commonly as a component of more complex guidance (e.g. bone mineral density (BMD) thresholds) or an age-dependent threshold (n = 22). Two guidelines have adopted both age-dependent and fixed thresholds. RESULTS Fixed probability thresholds have ranged from 4 to 20 % for a major fracture and 1.3-5 % for hip fracture. More than one half (39) of the 58 publications identified utilised a threshold probability of 20 % for a major osteoporotic fracture, many of which also mention a hip fracture probability of 3 % as an alternative intervention threshold. In nearly all instances, no rationale is provided other than that this was the threshold used by the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA. Where undertaken, fixed probability thresholds have been determined from tests of discrimination (Hong Kong), health economic assessment (USA, Switzerland), to match the prevalence of osteoporosis (China) or to align with pre-existing guidelines or reimbursement criteria (Japan, Poland). Age-dependent intervention thresholds, first developed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), are based on the rationale that if a woman with a prior fragility fracture is eligible for treatment, then, at any given age, a man or woman with the same fracture probability but in the absence of a previous fracture (i.e. at the 'fracture threshold') should also be eligible. Under current NOGG guidelines, based on age-dependent probability thresholds, inequalities in access to therapy arise especially at older ages (≥70 years) depending on the presence or absence of a prior fracture. An alternative threshold using a hybrid model reduces this disparity. CONCLUSION The use of FRAX (fixed or age-dependent thresholds) as the gateway to assessment identifies individuals at high risk more effectively than the use of BMD. However, the setting of intervention thresholds needs to be country-specific.
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Affiliation(s)
- John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.
- Institute of Health and Ageing, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Cyrus Cooper
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Helena Johansson
- Centre for Metabolic Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK
| | - Anders Odén
- Centre for Metabolic Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK
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Kanis JA, Compston J, Cooper C, Harvey NC, Johansson H, Odén A, McCloskey EV. SIGN Guidelines for Scotland: BMD Versus FRAX Versus QFracture. Calcif Tissue Int 2016; 98:417-25. [PMID: 26650822 DOI: 10.1007/s00223-015-0092-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2015] [Accepted: 11/21/2015] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) recently issued guidance on the management of osteoporosis and the prevention of fragility fractures. The aim of this paper was to critically review the guidance. The SIGN guidance utilises risk factors for fracture as an initial step for assessment, but recommends treatment only in individuals with a T-score of -2.5. There are many problems with the sole use of BMD as the sole gateway to treatment. Moreover, the assessment tools to determine risk (FRAX or QFracture) are not designed to detect osteoporosis but rather fracture risk. Whereas SIGN assumes that FRAX overestimates fracture probability, there are compelling reasons to believe that the disparity is related to the inadequate calibration of QFracture. The disparities make the use of a single threshold for BMD testing problematic. The SIGN guidance for men at high risk of fracture provides a set of confused and inconsistent recommendations that are in direct conflict with regulatory authorizations and is likely to increase further the large treatment gap in men. For women, the number of women eligible for treatment (i.e. with osteoporosis) is 81,700 with the use of FRAX but only 12,300 with QFracture representing 8.2 and 1.2 % of the total population at risk, respectively. We conclude that serious problems with the SIGN guidance preclude its implementation.
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Affiliation(s)
- John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.
| | | | - Cyrus Cooper
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Helena Johansson
- Centre for Metabolic Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK
| | - Anders Odén
- Centre for Metabolic Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK
| | - Eugene V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK
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McCloskey EV, Odén A, Harvey NC, Leslie WD, Hans D, Johansson H, Barkmann R, Boutroy S, Brown J, Chapurlat R, Elders PJM, Fujita Y, Glüer CC, Goltzman D, Iki M, Karlsson M, Kindmark A, Kotowicz M, Kurumatani N, Kwok T, Lamy O, Leung J, Lippuner K, Ljunggren Ö, Lorentzon M, Mellström D, Merlijn T, Oei L, Ohlsson C, Pasco JA, Rivadeneira F, Rosengren B, Sornay-Rendu E, Szulc P, Tamaki J, Kanis JA. A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX. J Bone Miner Res 2016; 31:940-8. [PMID: 26498132 DOI: 10.1002/jbmr.2734] [Citation(s) in RCA: 435] [Impact Index Per Article: 54.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2015] [Revised: 10/08/2015] [Accepted: 10/23/2015] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eugene V McCloskey
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
| | - Anders Odén
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
| | - Nicholas C Harvey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | | | - Didier Hans
- Lausanne University Hospital, Center of Bone Diseases, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Helena Johansson
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
| | - Reinhard Barkmann
- Sektion Biomedizinische Bildgebung Klinik für Diagnostische Radiologie, Kiel, Germany
| | - Stephanie Boutroy
- INSERM UMR 1033 and Lyon University, E Herriot Hospital (HEH), Lyon, France
| | - Jacques Brown
- Department of Rheumatology, Laval University, Québec, Canada
| | - Roland Chapurlat
- INSERM UMR 1033 and Lyon University, E Herriot Hospital (HEH), Lyon, France
| | - Petra J M Elders
- Department of General Practice and Elderly Care Medicine, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Yuki Fujita
- Department of Public Health, Kinki University Faculty of Medicine, Osaka, Japan
| | - Claus-C Glüer
- Sektion Biomedizinische Bildgebung Klinik für Diagnostische Radiologie, Kiel, Germany
| | - David Goltzman
- Department of Medicine, McGill University Health Centre and McGill University, Montreal, Canada
| | - Masayuki Iki
- Department of Public Health, Kinki University Faculty of Medicine, Osaka, Japan
| | - Magnus Karlsson
- Clinical and Molecular Osteoporosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö, and Department of Orthopaedics, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Andreas Kindmark
- Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Mark Kotowicz
- Epi-Centre for Healthy Ageing, School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
| | - Norio Kurumatani
- Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, Nara Medical University School of Medicine, Nara, Japan
| | - Timothy Kwok
- Jockey Club Centre for Osteoporosis Care and Control, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong-Kong, China
| | - Oliver Lamy
- Lausanne University Hospital, Center of Bone Diseases, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Jason Leung
- Jockey Club Centre for Osteoporosis Care and Control, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong-Kong, China
| | - Kurt Lippuner
- Department of Osteoporosis, Inselspital, Berne University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Östen Ljunggren
- Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University Hospital, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Mattias Lorentzon
- Geriatric Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenberg, Sweden.,Center for Bone Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Dan Mellström
- Geriatric Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenberg, Sweden.,Center for Bone Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Thomas Merlijn
- Department of General Practice and Elderly Care Medicine, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ling Oei
- Epi-Centre for Healthy Ageing, School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
| | - Claes Ohlsson
- Center for Bone Research at the Sahlgrenska Academy, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Julie A Pasco
- Epi-Centre for Healthy Ageing, School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
| | - Fernando Rivadeneira
- Department of Internal Medicine and Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Björn Rosengren
- Clinical and Molecular Osteoporosis Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö, and Department of Orthopaedics, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
| | | | - Pawel Szulc
- INSERM UMR 1033 and Lyon University, E Herriot Hospital (HEH), Lyon, France
| | - Junko Tamaki
- Department of Hygiene and Public Health, Osaka Medical College, Osaka, Japan
| | - John A Kanis
- Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield, UK
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Leslie WD, Schousboe JT, Lix LM. Towards better use of the net reclassification improvement (NRI) index. Osteoporos Int 2016; 27:411-2. [PMID: 26264605 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-015-3281-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2015] [Accepted: 08/05/2015] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- W D Leslie
- Department of Medicine (C5121), St. Boniface General Hospital, University of Manitoba, 409 Tache Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, R2H 2A6.
| | - J T Schousboe
- Park Nicollet Institute/HealthPartners, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - L M Lix
- Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
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Marques A, Ferreira RJO, Santos E, Loza E, Carmona L, da Silva JAP. The accuracy of osteoporotic fracture risk prediction tools: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Ann Rheum Dis 2015; 74:1958-67. [PMID: 26248637 DOI: 10.1136/annrheumdis-2015-207907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2015] [Accepted: 07/14/2015] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To identify and synthesise the best available evidence on the accuracy of the currently available tools for predicting fracture risk. METHODS We systematically searched PubMed MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane databases to 2014. Two reviewers independently selected articles, collected data from studies, and carried out a hand search of the references of the included studies. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) checklist was used, and the primary outcome was the area under the curve (AUC) and 95% CIs, obtained from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. We excluded tools if they had not been externally validated or were designed for specific disease populations. Random effects meta-analyses were performed with the selected tools. RESULTS Forty-five studies met inclusion criteria, corresponding to 13 different tools. Only three tools had been tested more than once in a population-based setting: FRAX (26 studies in 9 countries), GARVAN (6 studies in 3 countries) and QFracture (3 studies in the UK, 1 also including Irish participants). Twenty studies with these three tools were included in a total of 17 meta-analyses (for hip or major osteoporotic fractures; men or women; with or without bone mineral density). CONCLUSIONS Most of the 13 tools are feasible in clinical practice. FRAX has the largest number of externally validated and independent studies. The overall accuracy of the different tools is satisfactory (>0.70), with QFracture reaching 0.89 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.89). Significant methodological limitations were observed in many studies, suggesting caution when comparing tools based solely on the AUC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andréa Marques
- Rheumatology Department, Centro Hospitalar e Universitário de Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal Health Sciences Research Unit: Nursing (UICiSA:E), Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Ricardo J O Ferreira
- Rheumatology Department, Centro Hospitalar e Universitário de Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal Health Sciences Research Unit: Nursing (UICiSA:E), Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Eduardo Santos
- Rheumatology Department, Centro Hospitalar e Universitário de Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal Health Sciences Research Unit: Nursing (UICiSA:E), Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Estíbaliz Loza
- Instituto de Salud Musculoesquelética-InMusc, Madrid, Spain
| | - Loreto Carmona
- Instituto de Salud Musculoesquelética-InMusc, Madrid, Spain
| | - José António Pereira da Silva
- Rheumatology Department, Centro Hospitalar e Universitário de Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal Faculty of Medicine, Clínica Universitária de Reumatologia, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal
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Vytrisalova M, Touskova T, Ladova K, Fuksa L, Palicka V, Matoulkova P, Horak P, Stepan J. Adherence to oral bisphosphonates: 30 more minutes in dosing instructions matter. Climacteric 2015; 18:608-16. [DOI: 10.3109/13697137.2014.995164] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022]
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