Improving genetic risk prediction by leveraging pleiotropy

Estimating the overall fraction of phenotypic variance attributed to high-dimensional predictors measured with error

In prospective genomic studies (e.g., DNA methylation, metagenomics, and transcriptomics), it is crucial to estimate the overall fraction of phenotypic variance (OFPV) attributed to the high-dimensional genomic variables, a concept similar to heritability analyses in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Unlike genetic variants in GWAS, these genomic variables are typically measured with error due to technical limitation and temporal instability. While the existing methods developed for GWAS can be used, ignoring measurement error may severely underestimate OFPV and mislead the design of future studies. Assuming that measurement error variances are distributed similarly between causal and noncausal variables, we show that the asymptotic attenuation factor equals to the average intraclass correlation coefficients of all genomic variables, which can be estimated based on a pilot study with repeated measurements. We illustrate the method by estimating the contribution of microbiome taxa to body mass index and multiple allergy traits in the American Gut Project. Finally, we show that measurement error does not cause meaningful bias when estimating the correlation of effect sizes for two traits.

Integrative polygenic risk score improves the prediction accuracy of complex traits and diseases

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are an emerging tool to predict the clinical phenotypes and outcomes of individuals. We propose PRSmix, a framework that leverages the PRS corpus of a target trait to improve prediction accuracy, and PRSmix+, which incorporates genetically correlated traits to better capture the human genetic architecture for 47 and 32 diseases/traits in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. PRSmix demonstrated a mean prediction accuracy improvement of 1.20-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], [1.10; 1.3]; p = 9.17 × 10-5) and 1.19-fold (95% CI, [1.11; 1.27]; p = 1.92 × 10-6), and PRSmix+ improved the prediction accuracy by 1.72-fold (95% CI, [1.40; 2.04]; p = 7.58 × 10-6) and 1.42-fold (95% CI, [1.25; 1.59]; p = 8.01 × 10-7) in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. Compared to the previously cross-trait-combination methods with scores from pre-defined correlated traits, we demonstrated that our method improved prediction accuracy for coronary artery disease up to 3.27-fold (95% CI, [2.1; 4.44]; p value after false discovery rate (FDR) correction = 2.6 × 10-4). Our method provides a comprehensive framework to benchmark and leverage the combined power of PRS for maximal performance in a desired target population.

mtPGS: Leverage multiple correlated traits for accurate polygenic score construction

Accurate polygenic scores (PGSs) facilitate the genetic prediction of complex traits and aid in the development of personalized medicine. Here, we develop a statistical method called multi-trait assisted PGS (mtPGS), which can construct accurate PGSs for a target trait of interest by leveraging multiple traits relevant to the target trait. Specifically, mtPGS borrows SNP effect size similarity information between the target trait and its relevant traits to improve the effect size estimation on the target trait, thus achieving accurate PGSs. In the process, mtPGS flexibly models the shared genetic architecture between the target and the relevant traits to achieve robust performance, while explicitly accounting for the environmental covariance among them to accommodate different study designs with various sample overlap patterns. In addition, mtPGS uses only summary statistics as input and relies on a deterministic algorithm with several algebraic techniques for scalable computation. We evaluate the performance of mtPGS through comprehensive simulations and applications to 25 traits in the UK Biobank, where in the real data mtPGS achieves an average of 0.90%-52.91% accuracy gain compared to the state-of-the-art PGS methods. Overall, mtPGS represents an accurate, fast, and robust solution for PGS construction in biobank-scale datasets.

graph-GPA 2.0: improving multi-disease genetic analysis with integration of functional annotation data

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have successfully identified a large number of genetic variants associated with traits and diseases. However, it still remains challenging to fully understand the functional mechanisms underlying many associated variants. This is especially the case when we are interested in variants shared across multiple phenotypes. To address this challenge, we propose graph-GPA 2.0 (GGPA 2.0), a statistical framework to integrate GWAS datasets for multiple phenotypes and incorporate functional annotations within a unified framework. Our simulation studies showed that incorporating functional annotation data using GGPA 2.0 not only improves the detection of disease-associated variants, but also provides a more accurate estimation of relationships among diseases. Next, we analyzed five autoimmune diseases and five psychiatric disorders with the functional annotations derived from GenoSkyline and GenoSkyline-Plus, along with the prior disease graph generated by biomedical literature mining. For autoimmune diseases, GGPA 2.0 identified enrichment for blood-related epigenetic marks, especially B cells and regulatory T cells, across multiple diseases. Psychiatric disorders were enriched for brain-related epigenetic marks, especially the prefrontal cortex and the inferior temporal lobe for bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, respectively. In addition, the pleiotropy between bipolar disorder and schizophrenia was also detected. Finally, we found that GGPA 2.0 is robust to the use of irrelevant and/or incorrect functional annotations. These results demonstrate that GGPA 2.0 can be a powerful tool to identify genetic variants associated with each phenotype or those shared across multiple phenotypes, while also promoting an understanding of functional mechanisms underlying the associated variants.

Integrative polygenic risk score improves the prediction accuracy of complex traits and diseases

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are an emerging tool to predict the clinical phenotypes and outcomes of individuals. Validation and transferability of existing PRS across independent datasets and diverse ancestries are limited, which hinders the practical utility and exacerbates health disparities. We propose PRSmix, a framework that evaluates and leverages the PRS corpus of a target trait to improve prediction accuracy, and PRSmix+, which incorporates genetically correlated traits to better capture the human genetic architecture. We applied PRSmix to 47 and 32 diseases/traits in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. PRSmix demonstrated a mean prediction accuracy improvement of 1.20-fold (95% CI: [1.10; 1.3]; P-value = 9.17 × 10-5) and 1.19-fold (95% CI: [1.11; 1.27]; P-value = 1.92 × 10-6), and PRSmix+ improved the prediction accuracy by 1.72-fold (95% CI: [1.40; 2.04]; P-value = 7.58 × 10-6) and 1.42-fold (95% CI: [1.25; 1.59]; P-value = 8.01 × 10-7) in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. Compared to the previously established cross-trait-combination method with scores from pre-defined correlated traits, we demonstrated that our method can improve prediction accuracy for coronary artery disease up to 3.27-fold (95% CI: [2.1; 4.44]; P-value after FDR correction = 2.6 × 10-4). Our method provides a comprehensive framework to benchmark and leverage the combined power of PRS for maximal performance in a desired target population.

XPXP: improving polygenic prediction by cross-population and cross-phenotype analysis

MOTIVATION

As increasing sample sizes from genome-wide association studies (GWASs), polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have shown great potential in personalized medicine with disease risk prediction, prevention and treatment. However, the PRS constructed using European samples becomes less accurate when it is applied to individuals from non-European populations. It is an urgent task to improve the accuracy of PRSs in under-represented populations, such as African populations and East Asian populations.

RESULTS

In this article, we propose a cross-population and cross-phenotype (XPXP) method for construction of PRSs in under-represented populations. XPXP can construct accurate PRSs by leveraging biobank-scale datasets in European populations and multiple GWASs of genetically correlated phenotypes. XPXP also allows to incorporate population-specific and phenotype-specific effects, and thus further improves the accuracy of PRS. Through comprehensive simulation studies and real data analysis, we demonstrated that our XPXP outperformed existing PRS approaches. We showed that the height PRSs constructed by XPXP achieved 9% and 18% improvement over the runner-up method in terms of predicted R2 in East Asian and African populations, respectively. We also showed that XPXP substantially improved the stratification ability in identifying individuals at high genetic risk of type 2 diabetes.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The XPXP software and all analysis code are available at github.com/YangLabHKUST/XPXP.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Machine learning approaches for prediction of bipolar disorder based on biological, clinical and neuropsychological markers: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Applying machine learning (ML) to objective markers may overcome prognosis uncertainty due to the subjective nature of the diagnosis of bipolar disorder (BD). This PRISMA-compliant meta-analysis provides new systematic evidence of the BD classification accuracy reached by different markers and ML algorithms. We focused on neuroimaging, electrophysiological techniques, peripheral biomarkers, genetic data, neuropsychological or clinical measures, and multimodal approaches. PubMed, Embase and Scopus were searched through 3^rd December 2020. Meta-analyses were performed using random-effect models. Overall, 81 studies were included in this systematic review and 65 in the meta-analysis (11,336 participants, 3,903 BD). The overall pooled classification accuracy was 0.77 (95%CI[0.75;0.80]). Despite subgroup analyses for diagnostic comparison group, psychiatric disorders, marker, ML algorithm, and validation procedure were not significant, linear discriminant analysis significantly outperformed support vector machine for peripheral biomarkers (p=0.03). Sample size was inversely related to accuracy. Evidence of publication bias was detected. Ultimately, although ML reached a high accuracy in differentiating BD from other psychiatric disorders, best practices in methodology are needed for the advancement of future studies.

Statistical models and computational tools for predicting complex traits and diseases

Predicting individual traits and diseases from genetic variants is critical to fulfilling the promise of personalized medicine. The genetic variants from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), including variants well below GWAS significance, can be aggregated into highly significant predictions across a wide range of complex traits and diseases. The recent arrival of large-sample public biobanks enables highly accurate polygenic predictions based on genetic variants across the whole genome. Various statistical methodologies and diverse computational tools have been introduced and developed to computed the polygenic risk score (PRS) more accurately. However, many researchers utilize PRS tools without a thorough understanding of the underlying model and how to specify the parameters for the best performance. It is advantageous to study the statistical models implemented in computational tools for PRS estimation and the formulas of parameters to be specified. Here, we review a variety of recent statistical methodologies and computational tools for PRS computation.

M-DATA: A statistical approach to jointly analyzing de novo mutations for multiple traits

Recent studies have demonstrated that multiple early-onset diseases have shared risk genes, based on findings from de novo mutations (DNMs). Therefore, we may leverage information from one trait to improve statistical power to identify genes for another trait. However, there are few methods that can jointly analyze DNMs from multiple traits. In this study, we develop a framework called M-DATA (Multi-trait framework for De novo mutation Association Test with Annotations) to increase the statistical power of association analysis by integrating data from multiple correlated traits and their functional annotations. Using the number of DNMs from multiple diseases, we develop a method based on an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to both infer the degree of association between two diseases as well as to estimate the gene association probability for each disease. We apply our method to a case study of jointly analyzing data from congenital heart disease (CHD) and autism. Our method was able to identify 23 genes for CHD from joint analysis, including 12 novel genes, which is substantially more than single-trait analysis, leading to novel insights into CHD disease etiology.

Genetic prediction of complex traits with polygenic scores: a statistical review

Accurate genetic prediction of complex traits can facilitate disease screening, improve early intervention, and aid in the development of personalized medicine. Genetic prediction of complex traits requires the development of statistical methods that can properly model polygenic architecture and construct a polygenic score (PGS). We present a comprehensive review of 46 methods for PGS construction. We connect the majority of these methods through a multiple linear regression framework which can be instrumental for understanding their prediction performance for traits with distinct genetic architectures. We discuss the practical considerations of PGS analysis as well as challenges and future directions of PGS method development. We hope our review serves as a useful reference both for statistical geneticists who develop PGS methods and for data analysts who perform PGS analysis.

PUMAS: fine-tuning polygenic risk scores with GWAS summary statistics

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have wide applications in human genetics research, but often include tuning parameters which are difficult to optimize in practice due to limited access to individual-level data. Here, we introduce PUMAS, a novel method to fine-tune PRS models using summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Through extensive simulations, external validations, and analysis of 65 traits, we demonstrate that PUMAS can perform various model-tuning procedures using GWAS summary statistics and effectively benchmark and optimize PRS models under diverse genetic architecture. Furthermore, we show that fine-tuned PRSs will significantly improve statistical power in downstream association analysis.

Advances and challenges in quantitative delineation of the genetic architecture of complex traits

Background

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been widely adopted in studies of human complex traits and diseases.

Results

This review surveys areas of active research: quantifying and partitioning trait heritability, fine mapping functional variants and integrative analysis, genetic risk prediction of phenotypes, and the analysis of sequencing studies that have identified millions of rare variants. Current challenges and opportunities are highlighted.

Conclusion

GWAS have fundamentally transformed the field of human complex trait genetics. Novel statistical and computational methods have expanded the scope of GWAS and have provided valuable insights on the genetic architecture underlying complex phenotypes.

Polygenic risk score for alcohol drinking behavior improves prediction of inflammatory bowel disease risk

Epidemiological studies have long recognized risky behaviors as potentially modifiable factors for the onset and flares of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD); yet, the underlying mechanisms are largely unknown. Recently, the genetic susceptibilities to cigarette smoking, alcohol and cannabis use [i.e. substance use (SU)] have been characterized by well-powered genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We aimed to assess the impact of genetic determinants of SU on IBD risk. Using Mount Sinai Crohn's and Colitis Registry (MSCCR) cohort of 1058 IBD cases and 188 healthy controls, we computed the polygenic risk score (PRS) for SU and correlated them with the observed IBD diagnoses, while adjusting for genetic ancestry, PRS for IBD and SU behavior at enrollment. The results were validated in a pediatric cohort with no SU exposure. PRS of alcohol consumption (DrnkWk), smoking cessation and age of smoking initiation, were associated with IBD risk in MSCCR even after adjustment for PRSIBD and actual smoking status. One interquartile range decrease in PRSDrnkWk was significantly associated to higher IBD risk (i.e. inverse association) (with odds ratio = 1.65 and 95% confidence interval: 1.32, 2.06). The association was replicated in a pediatric Crohn's disease cohort. Colocalization analysis identified a locus on chromosome 16 with polymorphisms in IL27, SULT1A2 and SH2B1, which reached genome-wide statistical significance in GWAS (P < 7.7e-9) for both alcohol consumption and IBD risk. This study demonstrated that the genetic predisposition to SU was associated with IBD risk, independent of PRSIBD and in the absence of SU behaviors. Our study may help further stratify individuals at risk of IBD.

A unified framework for cross-population trait prediction by leveraging the genetic correlation of polygenic traits

The development of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) has proved useful to stratify the general European population into different risk groups. However, PRSs are less accurate in non-European populations due to genetic differences across different populations. To improve the prediction accuracy in non-European populations, we propose a cross-population analysis framework for PRS construction with both individual-level (XPA) and summary-level (XPASS) GWAS data. By leveraging trans-ancestry genetic correlation, our methods can borrow information from the Biobank-scale European population data to improve risk prediction in the non-European populations. Our framework can also incorporate population-specific effects to further improve construction of PRS. With innovations in data structure and algorithm design, our methods provide a substantial saving in computational time and memory usage. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we show that our framework provides accurate, efficient, and robust PRS construction across a range of genetic architectures. In a Chinese cohort, our methods achieved 7.3%-198.0% accuracy gain for height and 19.5%-313.3% accuracy gain for body mass index (BMI) in terms of predictive R2 compared to existing PRS approaches. We also show that XPA and XPASS can achieve substantial improvement for construction of height PRSs in the African population, suggesting the generality of our framework across global populations.

GWAS findings improved genomic prediction accuracy of lipid profile traits: Tehran Cardiometabolic Genetic Study

In recent decades, ongoing GWAS findings discovered novel therapeutic modifications such as whole-genome risk prediction in particular. Here, we proposed a method based on integrating the traditional genomic best linear unbiased prediction (gBLUP) approach with GWAS information to boost genetic prediction accuracy and gene-based heritability estimation. This study was conducted in the framework of the Tehran Cardio-metabolic Genetic study (TCGS) containing 14,827 individuals and 649,932 SNP markers. Five SNP subsets were selected based on GWAS results: top 1%, 5%, 10%, 50% significant SNPs, and reported associated SNPs in previous studies. Furthermore, we randomly selected subsets as large as every five subsets. Prediction accuracy has been investigated on lipid profile traits with a tenfold and 10-repeat cross-validation algorithm by the gBLUP method. Our results revealed that genetic prediction based on selected subsets of SNPs obtained from the dataset outperformed the subsets from previously reported SNPs. Selected SNPs' subsets acquired a more precise prediction than whole SNPs and much higher than randomly selected SNPs. Also, common SNPs with the most captured prediction accuracy in the selected sets caught the highest gene-based heritability. However, it is better to be mindful of the fact that a small number of SNPs obtained from GWAS results could capture a highly notable proportion of variance and prediction accuracy.

Meta-analysis of sample-level dbGaP data reveals novel shared genetic link between body height and Crohn's disease

To further explore genetic links between complex traits, we developed a comprehensive framework to harmonize and integrate extensive genotype and phenotype data from the four well-characterized cohorts with the focus on cardiometabolic diseases deposited to the database of Genotypes and Phenotypes (dbGaP). We generated a series of polygenic risk scores (PRS) to investigate pleiotropic effects of loci that confer genetic risk for 19 common diseases and traits on body height, type 2 diabetes (T2D), and myocardial infarction (MI). In a meta-analysis of 20,021 subjects, we identified shared genetic determinants of Crohn's Disease (CD), a type of inflammatory bowel disease, and body height (p = 5.5 × 10^-5). The association of PRS-CD with height was replicated in UK Biobank (p = 1.1 × 10^-5) and an independent cohort of 510 CD cases and controls (1.57 cm shorter height per PRS-CD interquartile increase, p = 5.0 × 10^-3 and a 28% reduction in CD risk per interquartile increase in PRS-height, p = 1.1 × 10^-3, with the effect independent of CD diagnosis). A pathway analysis of the variants overlapping between PRS-height and PRS-CD detected significant enrichment of genes from the inflammatory, immune-mediated and growth factor regulation pathways. This finding supports the clinical observation of growth failure in patients with childhood-onset CD and demonstrates the value of using individual-level data from dbGaP in searching for shared genetic determinants. This information can help provide a refined insight into disease pathogenesis and may have major implications for novel therapies and drug repurposing.

Lossless integration of multiple electronic health records for identifying pleiotropy using summary statistics

Increasingly, clinical phenotypes with matched genetic data from bio-bank linked electronic health records (EHRs) have been used for pleiotropy analyses. Thus far, pleiotropy analysis using individual-level EHR data has been limited to data from one site. However, it is desirable to integrate EHR data from multiple sites to improve the detection power and generalizability of the results. Due to privacy concerns, individual-level patients' data are not easily shared across institutions. As a result, we introduce Sum-Share, a method designed to efficiently integrate EHR and genetic data from multiple sites to perform pleiotropy analysis. Sum-Share requires only summary-level data and one round of communication from each site, yet it produces identical test statistics compared with that of pooled individual-level data. Consequently, Sum-Share can achieve lossless integration of multiple datasets. Using real EHR data from eMERGE, Sum-Share is able to identify 1734 potential pleiotropic SNPs for five cardiovascular diseases.

Machine learning for genetic prediction of psychiatric disorders: a systematic review

Machine learning methods have been employed to make predictions in psychiatry from genotypes, with the potential to bring improved prediction of outcomes in psychiatric genetics; however, their current performance is unclear. We aim to systematically review machine learning methods for predicting psychiatric disorders from genetics alone and evaluate their discrimination, bias and implementation. Medline, PsycInfo, Web of Science and Scopus were searched for terms relating to genetics, psychiatric disorders and machine learning, including neural networks, random forests, support vector machines and boosting, on 10 September 2019. Following PRISMA guidelines, articles were screened for inclusion independently by two authors, extracted, and assessed for risk of bias. Overall, 63 full texts were assessed from a pool of 652 abstracts. Data were extracted for 77 models of schizophrenia, bipolar, autism or anorexia across 13 studies. Performance of machine learning methods was highly varied (0.48-0.95 AUC) and differed between schizophrenia (0.54-0.95 AUC), bipolar (0.48-0.65 AUC), autism (0.52-0.81 AUC) and anorexia (0.62-0.69 AUC). This is likely due to the high risk of bias identified in the study designs and analysis for reported results. Choices for predictor selection, hyperparameter search and validation methodology, and viewing of the test set during training were common causes of high risk of bias in analysis. Key steps in model development and validation were frequently not performed or unreported. Comparison of discrimination across studies was constrained by heterogeneity of predictors, outcome and measurement, in addition to sample overlap within and across studies. Given widespread high risk of bias and the small number of studies identified, it is important to ensure established analysis methods are adopted. We emphasise best practices in methodology and reporting for improving future studies.

A penalized regression framework for building polygenic risk models based on summary statistics from genome-wide association studies and incorporating external information

Large-scale genome-wide association (GWAS) studies provide opportunities for developing genetic risk prediction models that have the potential to improve disease prevention, intervention or treatment. The key step is to develop polygenic risk score (PRS) models with high predictive performance for a given disease, which typically requires a large training data set for selecting truly associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and estimating effect sizes accurately. Here, we develop a comprehensive penalized regression for fitting l ₁ regularized regression models to GWAS summary statistics. We propose incorporating Pleiotropy and ANnotation information into PRS (PANPRS) development through suitable formulation of penalty functions and associated tuning parameters. Extensive simulations show that PANPRS performs equally well or better than existing PRS methods when no functional annotation or pleiotropy is incorporated. When functional annotation data and pleiotropy are informative, PANPRS substantially outperforms existing PRS methods in simulations. Finally, we applied our methods to build PRS for type 2 diabetes and melanoma and found that incorporating relevant functional annotations and GWAS of genetically related traits improved prediction of these two complex diseases.

Statistical Methods in Genome-Wide Association Studies

Since the initial success of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in 2005, tens of thousands of genetic variants have been identified for hundreds of human diseases and traits. In a GWAS, genotype information at up to millions of genetic markers is collected from up to hundreds of thousands of individuals, together with their phenotype information. Several scientific goals can be accomplished through the analysis of GWAS data, including the identification of variants, genes, and pathways associated with diseases and traits of interest; the inference of the genetic architecture of these traits; and the development of genetic risk prediction models. In this review, we provide an overview of the statistical challenges in achieving these goals and recent progress in statistical methodology to address these challenges.

Joint analysis of individual-level and summary-level GWAS data by leveraging pleiotropy

MOTIVATION

A large number of recent genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for complex phenotypes confirm the early conjecture for polygenicity, suggesting the presence of large number of variants with only tiny or moderate effects. However, due to the limited sample size of a single GWAS, many associated genetic variants are too weak to achieve the genome-wide significance. These undiscovered variants further limit the prediction capability of GWAS. Restricted access to the individual-level data and the increasing availability of the published GWAS results motivate the development of methods integrating both the individual-level and summary-level data. How to build the connection between the individual-level and summary-level data determines the efficiency of using the existing abundant summary-level resources with limited individual-level data, and this issue inspires more efforts in the existing area.

RESULTS

In this study, we propose a novel statistical approach, LEP, which provides a novel way of modeling the connection between the individual-level data and summary-level data. LEP integrates both types of data by LEveraging Pleiotropy to increase the statistical power of risk variants identification and the accuracy of risk prediction. The algorithm for parameter estimation is developed to handle genome-wide-scale data. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we demonstrated the advantages of LEP over the existing methods. We further applied LEP to perform integrative analysis of Crohn's disease from WTCCC and summary statistics from GWAS of some other diseases, such as Type 1 diabetes, Ulcerative colitis and Primary biliary cirrhosis. LEP was able to significantly increase the statistical power of identifying risk variants and improve the risk prediction accuracy from 63.39% (±0.58%) to 68.33% (±0.32%) using about 195 000 variants.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The LEP software is available at https://github.com/daviddaigithub/LEP.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Genetic correlations of polygenic disease traits: from theory to practice

The genetic correlation describes the genetic relationship between two traits and can contribute to a better understanding of the shared biological pathways and/or the causality relationships between them. The rarity of large family cohorts with recorded instances of two traits, particularly disease traits, has made it difficult to estimate genetic correlations using traditional epidemiological approaches. However, advances in genomic methodologies, such as genome-wide association studies, and widespread sharing of data now allow genetic correlations to be estimated for virtually any trait pair. Here, we review the definition, estimation, interpretation and uses of genetic correlations, with a focus on applications to human disease.

Statistical learning approaches in the genetic epidemiology of complex diseases

In this paper, we give an overview of methodological issues related to the use of statistical learning approaches when analyzing high-dimensional genetic data. The focus is set on regression models and machine learning algorithms taking genetic variables as input and returning a classification or a prediction for the target variable of interest; for example, the present or future disease status, or the future course of a disease. After briefly explaining the basic motivation and principle of these methods, we review different procedures that can be used to evaluate the accuracy of the obtained models and discuss common flaws that may lead to over-optimistic conclusions with respect to their prediction performance and usefulness.

Complex Trait Prediction from Genome Data: Contrasting EBV in Livestock to PRS in Humans: Genomic Prediction

In this Review, we focus on the similarity of the concepts underlying prediction of estimated breeding values (EBVs) in livestock and polygenic risk scores (PRS) in humans. Our research spans both fields and so we recognize factors that are very obvious for those in one field, but less so for those in the other. Differences in family size between species is the wedge that drives the different viewpoints and approaches. Large family size achievable in nonhuman species accompanied by selection generates a smaller effective population size, increased linkage disequilibrium and a higher average genetic relationship between individuals within a population. In human genetic analyses, we select individuals unrelated in the classical sense (coefficient of relationship <0.05) to estimate heritability captured by common SNPs. In livestock data, all animals within a breed are to some extent "related," and so it is not possible to select unrelated individuals and retain a data set of sufficient size to analyze. These differences directly or indirectly impact the way data analyses are undertaken. In livestock, genetic segregation variance exposed through samplings of parental genomes within families is directly observable and taken for granted. In humans, this genomic variation is under-recognized for its contribution to variation in polygenic risk of common disease, in both those with and without family history of disease. We explore the equation that predicts the expected proportion of variance explained using PRS, and quantify how GWAS sample size is the key factor for maximizing accuracy of prediction in both humans and livestock. Last, we bring together the concepts discussed to address some frequently asked questions.

A statistical framework for cross-tissue transcriptome-wide association analysis

Transcriptome-wide association analysis is a powerful approach to studying the genetic architecture of complex traits. A key component of this approach is to build a model to impute gene expression levels from genotypes by using samples with matched genotypes and gene expression data in a given tissue. However, it is challenging to develop robust and accurate imputation models with a limited sample size for any single tissue. Here, we first introduce a multi-task learning method to jointly impute gene expression in 44 human tissues. Compared with single-tissue methods, our approach achieved an average of 39% improvement in imputation accuracy and generated effective imputation models for an average of 120% more genes. We describe a summary-statistic-based testing framework that combines multiple single-tissue associations into a powerful metric to quantify the overall gene-trait association. We applied our method, called UTMOST (unified test for molecular signatures), to multiple genome-wide-association results and demonstrate its advantages over single-tissue strategies.

Efficient cross-trait penalized regression increases prediction accuracy in large cohorts using secondary phenotypes

We introduce cross-trait penalized regression (CTPR), a powerful and practical approach for multi-trait polygenic risk prediction in large cohorts. Specifically, we propose a novel cross-trait penalty function with the Lasso and the minimax concave penalty (MCP) to incorporate the shared genetic effects across multiple traits for large-sample GWAS data. Our approach extracts information from the secondary traits that is beneficial for predicting the primary trait based on individual-level genotypes and/or summary statistics. Our novel implementation of a parallel computing algorithm makes it feasible to apply our method to biobank-scale GWAS data. We illustrate our method using large-scale GWAS data (~1M SNPs) from the UK Biobank (N = 456,837). We show that our multi-trait method outperforms the recently proposed multi-trait analysis of GWAS (MTAG) for predictive performance. The prediction accuracy for height by the aid of BMI improves from R² = 35.8% (MTAG) to 42.5% (MCP + CTPR) or 42.8% (Lasso + CTPR) with UK Biobank data.

Information of genetic architectures of complex traits can be leveraged for predicting phenotypes. Here, the authors develop CTPR (Cross-Trait Penalized Regression), a method for multi-trait polygenic risk prediction using individual-level genotypes and/or summary statistics from large cohorts.

Identification of pleiotropic genetic variants affecting osteoporosis risk in a Korean elderly cohort

Pleiotropy has important implications for understanding the genetic basis and risk assessment of osteoporosis. Our aim was to identify pleiotropic genetic variants associated with the development of osteoporosis and predict osteoporosis risk by leveraging pleiotropic variants. We evaluated the effects of 21 conventional risk factors and 185 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 63 inflammation- and metabolism-related genes on osteoporosis risk in a community-based Korean cohort study of 1025 participants, the Hallym Aging Study. Ten nongenetic factors, including sex (female) and hematocrit level, and 12 SNPs across ten genes showed evidence of association with incident osteoporosis in 270 initially osteoporosis-free subjects who completed a 6-year follow up. Three gene variants, rs1801282 (PPARG-Pro12Ala, hazard ratio (HR) = 3.26, P = 0.008), rs1408282 (near EPHA7, HR = 1.87, P = 0.002), and rs2076212 (PNPLA3-Gly115Cys, HR = 2.24, P = 0.024), were associated with significant differences in survival among the three genotype groups (P_diff = 0.042, 0.003, and 0.048, respectively). Individuals in the highest polygenic risk score tertile were 27.9 fold more likely to develop osteoporosis than those in the lowest tertile (P = 0.004). The PPARG gene in particular was a hub pleiotropic gene in the epistasis network. Our findings highlight pleiotropic modulations of metabolism- and inflammation-related genes in the development of osteoporosis and demonstrate the contribution of pleiotropic genetic variants in prediction of osteoporosis risk.

PCA-Based Multiple-Trait GWAS Analysis: A Powerful Model for Exploring Pleiotropy

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a potential approach that can be applied in multiple-trait genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to explore pleiotropy, as well as increase the power of quantitative trait loci (QTL) detection. In this study, the relationship of test single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was determined between single-trait GWAS and PCA-based GWAS. We found that the estimated pleiotropic quantitative trait nucleotides (QTNs) β * ^ were in most cases larger than the single-trait model estimations ( β 1 ^ and β 2 ^ ). Analysis using the simulated data showed that PCA-based multiple-trait GWAS has improved statistical power for detecting QTL compared to single-trait GWAS. For the minor allele frequency (MAF), when the MAF of QTNs was greater than 0.2, the PCA-based model had a significant advantage in detecting the pleiotropic QTNs, but when its MAF was reduced from 0.2 to 0, the advantage began to disappear. In addition, as the linkage disequilibrium (LD) of the pleiotropic QTNs decreased, its detection ability declined in the co-localization effect model. Furthermore, on the real data of 1141 Simmental cattle, we applied the PCA model to the multiple-trait GWAS analysis and identified a QTL that was consistent with a candidate gene, MCHR2, which was associated with presoma muscle development in cattle. In summary, PCA-based multiple-trait GWAS is an efficient model for exploring pleiotropic QTNs in quantitative traits.

Prediction of Schizophrenia Diagnosis by Integration of Genetically Correlated Conditions and Traits

Schizophrenia is genetically heterogeneous and comorbid with many conditions. In this study, we explored polygenic scores (PGSs) from genetically related conditions and traits to predict schizophrenia diagnosis using both logistic regression and deep neural network (DNN) models. We used the combined Molecular Genetics of Schizophrenia and Swedish Schizophrenia Case Control Study (MGS + SSCCS) data for training and testing the models, and used the Clinical Antipsychotic Trials for Intervention Effectiveness (CATIE) data as independent validation. We screened 28 conditions and traits comorbid with schizophrenia to identify traits as potential predictors and used LASSO regression to select predictors for model construction. We investigated how PGS calculation influenced model performance. We found that the inclusion of comorbid traits improved model performance and PGSs calculated from two traits were more generalizable in independent validation. With a DNN model using 19 PGS predictors, we accomplished a prediction accuracy of 0.813 and an AUC of 0.905 in the MGS + SSCCS data. When this model was validated with the CATIE data, it achieved an accuracy of 0.721 and AUC of 0.747. Our results indicate that PGSs alone may not be sufficient to predict schizophrenia accurately and the inclusion of behavioral and clinical data may be necessary for more accurate prediction model.

New approaches in psychiatric drug development

Numerous novel neuroscience-based drug targets have been identified in recent years. However, it remains unclear how these targets relate to the expression of symptoms in central nervous system (CNS) disorders in general and psychiatric disorders in particular. To discuss this issue, a New Frontiers Meetings of European College of Neuropsychopharmacology (ECNP) was organized to address the challenges in translational neuroscience research that are impeding the effective development of new treatments. The main aim of this meeting was to discuss scientific insights, concepts and methodologies in order to improve drug development for psychiatric disorders. The meeting was designed to bring together stakeholders from academia, pharmaceutical industry, and regulatory agencies. Here we provide a synopsis of the proceedings from the meeting entitled 'New approaches to psychiatric drug development'. New views on psychiatric drug development were presented to address the challenges and pitfalls as identified by the different stakeholders. The general conclusion of the meeting was that drug discovery could be stimulated by designing new classification and sensitive assessment tools for psychiatric disorders, which bear closer relationships to neuropharmacological and neuroscientific developments. This is in line with the vision of precision psychiatry in which patients are clustered, not merely on symptoms, but primarily on biological phenotypes that represent pathophysiological relevant and 'drugable' processes. To achieve these goals, a closer collaboration between all stakeholders in early stages of development is essential to define the research criteria together and to reach consensus on new quantitative biological methodologies and etiology-directed treatments.

LLR: a latent low-rank approach to colocalizing genetic risk variants in multiple GWAS

Motivation

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS), which genotype millions of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in thousands of individuals, are widely used to identify the risk SNPs underlying complex human phenotypes (quantitative traits or diseases). Most conventional statistical methods in GWAS only investigate one phenotype at a time. However, an increasing number of reports suggest the ubiquity of pleiotropy, i.e. many complex phenotypes sharing common genetic bases. This motivated us to leverage pleiotropy to develop new statistical approaches to joint analysis of multiple GWAS.

Results

In this study, we propose a latent low-rank (LLR) approach to colocalizing genetic risk variants using summary statistics. In the presence of pleiotropy, there exist risk loci that affect multiple phenotypes. To leverage pleiotropy, we introduce a low-rank structure to modulate the probabilities of the latent association statuses between loci and phenotypes. Regarding the computational efficiency of LLR, a novel expectation-maximization-path (EM-path) algorithm has been developed to greatly reduce the computational cost and facilitate model selection and inference. We demonstrate the advantages of LLR over competing approaches through simulation studies and joint analysis of 18 GWAS datasets.

Availability and implementation

The LLR software is available on https://sites.google.com/site/liujin810822.

Contact

macyang@ust.hk.edu.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Improving genetic prediction by leveraging genetic correlations among human diseases and traits

Genomic prediction has the potential to contribute to precision medicine. However, to date, the utility of such predictors is limited due to low accuracy for most traits. Here theory and simulation study are used to demonstrate that widespread pleiotropy among phenotypes can be utilised to improve genomic risk prediction. We show how a genetic predictor can be created as a weighted index that combines published genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics across many different traits. We apply this framework to predict risk of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in the Psychiatric Genomics consortium data, finding substantial heterogeneity in prediction accuracy increases across cohorts. For six additional phenotypes in the UK Biobank data, we find increases in prediction accuracy ranging from 0.7% for height to 47% for type 2 diabetes, when using a multi-trait predictor that combines published summary statistics from multiple traits, as compared to a predictor based only on one trait.

Testing Genetic Pleiotropy with GWAS Summary Statistics for Marginal and Conditional Analyses

There is growing interest in testing genetic pleiotropy, which is when a single genetic variant influences multiple traits. Several methods have been proposed; however, these methods have some limitations. First, all the proposed methods are based on the use of individual-level genotype and phenotype data; in contrast, for logistical, and other, reasons, summary statistics of univariate SNP-trait associations are typically only available based on meta- or mega-analyzed large genome-wide association study (GWAS) data. Second, existing tests are based on marginal pleiotropy, which cannot distinguish between direct and indirect associations of a single genetic variant with multiple traits due to correlations among the traits. Hence, it is useful to consider conditional analysis, in which a subset of traits is adjusted for another subset of traits. For example, in spite of substantial lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) with statin therapy, some patients still maintain high residual cardiovascular risk, and, for these patients, it might be helpful to reduce their triglyceride (TG) level. For this purpose, in order to identify new therapeutic targets, it would be useful to identify genetic variants with pleiotropic effects on LDL and TG after adjusting the latter for LDL; otherwise, a pleiotropic effect of a genetic variant detected by a marginal model could simply be due to its association with LDL only, given the well-known correlation between the two types of lipids. Here, we develop a new pleiotropy testing procedure based only on GWAS summary statistics that can be applied for both marginal analysis and conditional analysis. Although the main technical development is based on published union-intersection testing methods, care is needed in specifying conditional models to avoid invalid statistical estimation and inference. In addition to the previously used likelihood ratio test, we also propose using generalized estimating equations under the working independence model for robust inference. We provide numerical examples based on both simulated and real data, including two large lipid GWAS summary association datasets based on ∼100,000 and ∼189,000 samples, respectively, to demonstrate the difference between marginal and conditional analyses, as well as the effectiveness of our new approach.

Accumulation of minor alleles and risk prediction in schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a common neuropsychiatric disorder with a lifetime risk of 1%. Accumulation of common polygenic variations has been found to be an important risk factor. Recent studies showed a role for the enrichment of minor alleles (MAs) of SNPs in complex diseases such as Parkinson’s disease. Here we similarly studied the role of genome wide MAs in schizophrenia using public datasets. Relative to matched controls, schizophrenia cases showed higher average values in minor allele content (MAC) or the average amount of MAs per subject. By risk prediction analysis based on weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) of MAs, we identified an optimal MA set consisting of 23 238 variants that could be used to predict 3.14% of schizophrenia cases, which is comparable to using 22q11 deletion to detect schizophrenia cases. Pathway enrichment analysis of these SNPs identified 30 pathways with false discovery rate (FDR) <0.02 and of significant P-value, most of which are known to be linked with schizophrenia and other neurological disorders. These results suggest that MAs accumulation may be a risk factor to schizophrenia and provide a method to genetically screen for this disease.

Leveraging Multi-ethnic Evidence for Risk Assessment of Quantitative Traits in Minority Populations

An essential component of precision medicine is the ability to predict an individual's risk of disease based on genetic and non-genetic factors. For complex traits and diseases, assessing the risk due to genetic factors is challenging because it requires knowledge of both the identity of variants that influence the trait and their corresponding allelic effects. Although the set of risk variants and their allelic effects may vary between populations, a large proportion of these variants were identified based on studies in populations of European descent. Heterogeneity in genetic architecture underlying complex traits and diseases, while broadly acknowledged, remains poorly characterized. Ignoring such heterogeneity likely reduces predictive accuracy for minority individuals. In this study, we propose an approach, called XP-BLUP, which ameliorates this ethnic disparity by combining trans-ethnic and ethnic-specific information. We build a polygenic model for complex traits that distinguishes candidate trait-relevant variants from the rest of the genome. The set of candidate variants are selected based on studies in any human population, yet the allelic effects are evaluated in a population-specific fashion. Simulation studies and real data analyses demonstrate that XP-BLUP adaptively utilizes trans-ethnic information and can substantially improve predictive accuracy in minority populations. At the same time, our study highlights the importance of the continued expansion of minority cohorts.

Joint modeling of genetically correlated diseases and functional annotations increases accuracy of polygenic risk prediction

Accurate prediction of disease risk based on genetic factors is an important goal in human genetics research and precision medicine. Advanced prediction models will lead to more effective disease prevention and treatment strategies. Despite the identification of thousands of disease-associated genetic variants through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in the past decade, accuracy of genetic risk prediction remains moderate for most diseases, which is largely due to the challenges in both identifying all the functionally relevant variants and accurately estimating their effect sizes. In this work, we introduce PleioPred, a principled framework that leverages pleiotropy and functional annotations in genetic risk prediction for complex diseases. PleioPred uses GWAS summary statistics as its input, and jointly models multiple genetically correlated diseases and a variety of external information including linkage disequilibrium and diverse functional annotations to increase the accuracy of risk prediction. Through comprehensive simulations and real data analyses on Crohn’s disease, celiac disease and type-II diabetes, we demonstrate that our approach can substantially increase the accuracy of polygenic risk prediction and risk population stratification, i.e. PleioPred can significantly better separate type-II diabetes patients with early and late onset ages, illustrating its potential clinical application. Furthermore, we show that the increment in prediction accuracy is significantly correlated with the genetic correlation between the predicted and jointly modeled diseases.

Genetic risk prediction plays a significant role in precision medicine. Accurate prediction models could have great impact on disease prevention and treatment strategies. However, prediction accuracies for most complex diseases remain moderate mainly due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying the effects of genetic variants from millions of markers, limited access to individual-level genotype data, and lack of efficient computational methods. Up to now, most methods have been focused on predicting disease risk using data from a single trait. With the discovery of genetic correlations among many complex diseases, incorporating data of genetically correlated diseases could have the potential to increase prediction accuracy. Current statistical methods are not able to fully exploit the richness of these kinds of data to take into account the shared genetic architecture. To make use of commonly available GWAS summary statistics, we propose a novel method to address these challenges by jointly modeling genetically correlated diseases and integrating genomic functional annotations. We demonstrate the substantial improvement in accuracy in both extensive simulation studies and real data analysis of Crohn’s disease, celiac disease and type-II diabetes. Furthermore, we show that the increment in prediction accuracy is significantly correlated with the genetic correlation between the predicted and jointly modeled diseases.

Leveraging functional annotations in genetic risk prediction for human complex diseases

Genetic risk prediction is an important goal in human genetics research and precision medicine. Accurate prediction models will have great impacts on both disease prevention and early treatment strategies. Despite the identification of thousands of disease-associated genetic variants through genome wide association studies (GWAS), genetic risk prediction accuracy remains moderate for most diseases, which is largely due to the challenges in both identifying all the functionally relevant variants and accurately estimating their effect sizes in the presence of linkage disequilibrium. In this paper, we introduce AnnoPred, a principled framework that leverages diverse types of genomic and epigenomic functional annotations in genetic risk prediction for complex diseases. AnnoPred is trained using GWAS summary statistics in a Bayesian framework in which we explicitly model various functional annotations and allow for linkage disequilibrium estimated from reference genotype data. Compared with state-of-the-art risk prediction methods, AnnoPred achieves consistently improved prediction accuracy in both extensive simulations and real data.

Prediction of gene expression with cis-SNPs using mixed models and regularization methods

Background

It has been shown that gene expression in human tissues is heritable, thus predicting gene expression using only SNPs becomes possible. The prediction of gene expression can offer important implications on the genetic architecture of individual functional associated SNPs and further interpretations of the molecular basis underlying human diseases.

Methods

We compared three types of methods for predicting gene expression using only cis-SNPs, including the polygenic model, i.e. linear mixed model (LMM), two sparse models, i.e. Lasso and elastic net (ENET), and the hybrid of LMM and sparse model, i.e. Bayesian sparse linear mixed model (BSLMM). The three kinds of prediction methods have very different assumptions of underlying genetic architectures. These methods were evaluated using simulations under various scenarios, and were applied to the Geuvadis gene expression data.

Results

The simulations showed that these four prediction methods (i.e. Lasso, ENET, LMM and BSLMM) behaved best when their respective modeling assumptions were satisfied, but BSLMM had a robust performance across a range of scenarios. According to R² of these models in the Geuvadis data, the four methods performed quite similarly. We did not observe any clustering or enrichment of predictive genes (defined as genes with R² ≥ 0.05) across the chromosomes, and also did not see there was any clear relationship between the proportion of the predictive genes and the proportion of genes in each chromosome. However, an interesting finding in the Geuvadis data was that highly predictive genes (e.g. R² ≥ 0.30) may have sparse genetic architectures since Lasso, ENET and BSLMM outperformed LMM for these genes; and this observation was validated in another gene expression data. We further showed that the predictive genes were enriched in approximately independent LD blocks.

Conclusions

Gene expression can be predicted with only cis-SNPs using well-developed prediction models and these predictive genes were enriched in some approximately independent LD blocks. The prediction of gene expression can shed some light on the functional interpretation for identified SNPs in GWASs.

An Analytic Solution to the Computation of Power and Sample Size for Genetic Association Studies under a Pleiotropic Mode of Inheritance

Our motivation here is to calculate the power of 3 statistical tests used when there are genetic traits that operate under a pleiotropic mode of inheritance and when qualitative phenotypes are defined by use of thresholds for the multiple quantitative phenotypes. Specifically, we formulate a multivariate function that provides the probability that an individual has a vector of specific quantitative trait values conditional on having a risk locus genotype, and we apply thresholds to define qualitative phenotypes (affected, unaffected) and compute penetrances and conditional genotype frequencies based on the multivariate function. We extend the analytic power and minimum-sample-size-necessary (MSSN) formulas for 2 categorical data-based tests (genotype, linear trend test [LTT]) of genetic association to the pleiotropic model. We further compare the MSSN of the genotype test and the LTT with that of a multivariate ANOVA (Pillai). We approximate the MSSN for statistics by linear models using a factorial design and ANOVA. With ANOVA decomposition, we determine which factors most significantly change the power/MSSN for all statistics. Finally, we determine which test statistics have the smallest MSSN. In this work, MSSN calculations are for 2 traits (bivariate distributions) only (for illustrative purposes). We note that the calculations may be extended to address any number of traits. Our key findings are that the genotype test usually has lower MSSN requirements than the LTT. More inclusive thresholds (top/bottom 25% vs. top/bottom 10%) have higher sample size requirements. The Pillai test has a much larger MSSN than both the genotype test and the LTT, as a result of sample selection. With these formulas, researchers can specify how many subjects they must collect to localize genes for pleiotropic phenotypes.

graph-GPA: A graphical model for prioritizing GWAS results and investigating pleiotropic architecture

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified tens of thousands of genetic variants associated with hundreds of phenotypes and diseases, which have provided clinical and medical benefits to patients with novel biomarkers and therapeutic targets. However, identification of risk variants associated with complex diseases remains challenging as they are often affected by many genetic variants with small or moderate effects. There has been accumulating evidence suggesting that different complex traits share common risk basis, namely pleiotropy. Recently, several statistical methods have been developed to improve statistical power to identify risk variants for complex traits through a joint analysis of multiple GWAS datasets by leveraging pleiotropy. While these methods were shown to improve statistical power for association mapping compared to separate analyses, they are still limited in the number of phenotypes that can be integrated. In order to address this challenge, in this paper, we propose a novel statistical framework, graph-GPA, to integrate a large number of GWAS datasets for multiple phenotypes using a hidden Markov random field approach. Application of graph-GPA to a joint analysis of GWAS datasets for 12 phenotypes shows that graph-GPA improves statistical power to identify risk variants compared to statistical methods based on smaller number of GWAS datasets. In addition, graph-GPA also promotes better understanding of genetic mechanisms shared among phenotypes, which can potentially be useful for the development of improved diagnosis and therapeutics. The R implementation of graph-GPA is currently available at https://dongjunchung.github.io/GGPA/.

Recently, there has been accumulating evidence suggesting pleiotropy, i.e., genetic components shared across multiple phenotypes. Incorporation of pleiotropy in genetic analysis might improve statistical power to identify risk associated genetic variants. Several statistical approaches have been proposed to utilize pleiotropy for association mapping but they are currently still limited to a relatively small number of phenotypes, e.g., a pair of phenotypes. This restricts potential gain in statistical power in association mapping and investigation of pleiotropic structure among a large number of phenotypes. In order to address this challenge, in this paper, we propose graph-GPA, a novel statistical framework to integrate a large number of phenotypes using a hidden Markov random field architecture. Application of the proposed statistical method to GWAS datasets for 12 phenotypes showed that graph-GPA does not only provide a parsimonious representation of genetic relationship among these phenotypes, but also identify significantly larger number of novel genetic variants that are potentially functional. We believe that this novel approach might help investigation of common etiology and improvement of diagnosis and therapeutics.

Integrative genetic risk prediction using non-parametric empirical Bayes classification

Genetic risk prediction is an important component of individualized medicine, but prediction accuracies remain low for many complex diseases. A fundamental limitation is the sample sizes of the studies on which the prediction algorithms are trained. One way to increase the effective sample size is to integrate information from previously existing studies. However, it can be difficult to find existing data that examine the target disease of interest, especially if that disease is rare or poorly studied. Furthermore, individual-level genotype data from these auxiliary studies are typically difficult to obtain. This article proposes a new approach to integrative genetic risk prediction of complex diseases with binary phenotypes. It accommodates possible heterogeneity in the genetic etiologies of the target and auxiliary diseases using a tuning parameter-free non-parametric empirical Bayes procedure, and can be trained using only auxiliary summary statistics. Simulation studies show that the proposed method can provide superior predictive accuracy relative to non-integrative as well as integrative classifiers. The method is applied to a recent study of pediatric autoimmune diseases, where it substantially reduces prediction error for certain target/auxiliary disease combinations. The proposed method is implemented in the R package ssa.

Genome-Wide Meta-Analyses of Breast, Ovarian, and Prostate Cancer Association Studies Identify Multiple New Susceptibility Loci Shared by at Least Two Cancer Types

Breast, ovarian, and prostate cancers are hormone-related and may have a shared genetic basis, but this has not been investigated systematically by genome-wide association (GWA) studies. Meta-analyses combining the largest GWA meta-analysis data sets for these cancers totaling 112,349 cases and 116,421 controls of European ancestry, all together and in pairs, identified at P < 10(-8) seven new cross-cancer loci: three associated with susceptibility to all three cancers (rs17041869/2q13/BCL2L11; rs7937840/11q12/INCENP; rs1469713/19p13/GATAD2A), two breast and ovarian cancer risk loci (rs200182588/9q31/SMC2; rs8037137/15q26/RCCD1), and two breast and prostate cancer risk loci (rs5013329/1p34/NSUN4; rs9375701/6q23/L3MBTL3). Index variants in five additional regions previously associated with only one cancer also showed clear association with a second cancer type. Cell-type-specific expression quantitative trait locus and enhancer-gene interaction annotations suggested target genes with potential cross-cancer roles at the new loci. Pathway analysis revealed significant enrichment of death receptor signaling genes near loci with P < 10(-5) in the three-cancer meta-analysis.

SIGNIFICANCE

We demonstrate that combining large-scale GWA meta-analysis findings across cancer types can identify completely new risk loci common to breast, ovarian, and prostate cancers. We show that the identification of such cross-cancer risk loci has the potential to shed new light on the shared biology underlying these hormone-related cancers. Cancer Discov; 6(9); 1052-67. ©2016 AACR.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 932.

Leveraging electronic health records to study pleiotropic effects on bipolar disorder and medical comorbidities

Patients with bipolar disorder (BD) have a high prevalence of comorbid medical illness. However, the mechanisms underlying these comorbidities with BD are not well known. Certain genetic variants may have pleiotropic effects, increasing the risk of BD and other medical illnesses simultaneously. In this study, we evaluated the association of BD-susceptibility genetic variants with various medical conditions that tend to co-exist with BD, using electronic health records (EHR) data linked to genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data. Data from 7316 Caucasian subjects were used to test the association of 19 EHR-derived phenotypes with 34 SNPs that were previously reported to be associated with BD. After Bonferroni multiple testing correction, P<7.7 × 10(-5) was considered statistically significant. The top association findings suggested that the BD risk alleles at SNP rs4765913 in CACNA1C gene and rs7042161 in SVEP1 may be associated with increased risk of 'cardiac dysrhythmias' (odds ratio (OR)=1.1, P=3.4 × 10(-3)) and 'essential hypertension' (OR=1.1, P=3.5 × 10(-3)), respectively. Although these associations are not statistically significant after multiple testing correction, both genes have been previously implicated with cardiovascular phenotypes. Moreover, we present additional evidence supporting these associations, particularly the association of the SVEP1 SNP with hypertension. This study shows the potential for EHR-based analyses of large cohorts to discover pleiotropic effects contributing to complex psychiatric traits and commonly co-occurring medical conditions.

Post-GWAS Prioritization Through Data Integration Provides Novel Insights on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rich collections of genomic and epigenomic annotations, availabilities of large population cohorts for genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and advancements in data integration techniques provide the unprecedented opportunity to accelerate discoveries in complex disease studies through integrative analyses. In this paper, we apply a variety of approaches to integrate GWAS summary statistics of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with functional annotations to illustrate how data integration could help researchers understand complex human diseases. We show that incorporating functional annotations can better prioritize GWAS signals at both the global and the local levels. Signal prioritization on severe COPD GWAS reveals multiple potential risk loci that are linked with pulmonary functions. Enrichment analysis provides novel insights on the pathogenesis of COPD and hints the existence of genetic contributions to muscle dysfuncion and chronic lung inflammation, two symptoms that are often co-morbid with COPD. Our results suggest that rich signals for COPD genetics are still buried under the Bonferroni-corrected genome-wide significance threshold. Many more biological findings are expected to emerge as more samples are recruited for COPD studies.

Developing and evaluating polygenic risk prediction models for stratified disease prevention

Knowledge of genetics and its implications for human health is rapidly evolving in accordance with recent events, such as discoveries of large numbers of disease susceptibility loci from genome-wide association studies, the US Supreme Court ruling of the non-patentability of human genes, and the development of a regulatory framework for commercial genetic tests. In anticipation of the increasing relevance of genetic testing for the assessment of disease risks, this Review provides a summary of the methodologies used for building, evaluating and applying risk prediction models that include information from genetic testing and environmental risk factors. Potential applications of models for primary and secondary disease prevention are illustrated through several case studies, and future challenges and opportunities are discussed.

Application of computational methods in genetic study of inflammatory bowel disease

Genetic factors play an important role in the etiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The launch of genome-wide association study (GWAS) represents a landmark in the genetic study of human complex disease. Concurrently, computational methods have undergone rapid development during the past a few years, which led to the identification of numerous disease susceptibility loci. IBD is one of the successful examples of GWAS and related analyses. A total of 163 genetic loci and multiple signaling pathways have been identified to be associated with IBD. Pleiotropic effects were found for many of these loci; and risk prediction models were built based on a broad spectrum of genetic variants. Important gene-gene, gene-environment interactions and key contributions of gut microbiome are being discovered. Here we will review the different types of analyses that have been applied to IBD genetic study, discuss the computational methods for each type of analysis, and summarize the discoveries made in IBD research with the application of these methods.

Machine learning derived risk prediction of anorexia nervosa

Background

Anorexia nervosa (AN) is a complex psychiatric disease with a moderate to strong genetic contribution. In addition to conventional genome wide association (GWA) studies, researchers have been using machine learning methods in conjunction with genomic data to predict risk of diseases in which genetics play an important role.

Methods

In this study, we collected whole genome genotyping data on 3940 AN cases and 9266 controls from the Genetic Consortium for Anorexia Nervosa (GCAN), the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 3 (WTCCC3), Price Foundation Collaborative Group and the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP), and applied machine learning methods for predicting AN disease risk. The prediction performance is measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), indicating how well the model distinguishes cases from unaffected control subjects.

Results

Logistic regression model with the lasso penalty technique generated an AUC of 0.693, while Support Vector Machines and Gradient Boosted Trees reached AUC’s of 0.691 and 0.623, respectively. Using different sample sizes, our results suggest that larger datasets are required to optimize the machine learning models and achieve higher AUC values.

Conclusions

To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to assess AN risk based on genome wide genotype level data. Future integration of genomic, environmental and family-based information is likely to improve the AN risk evaluation process, eventually benefitting AN patients and families in the clinical setting.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12920-016-0165-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Collective effects of common SNPs in foraging decisions in Caenorhabditis elegans and an integrative method of identification of candidate genes

Optimal foraging decision is a quantitative flexible behavior, which describes the time at which animals choose to abandon a depleting food supply. The total minor allele content (MAC) in an individual has been shown to correlate with quantitative variations in complex traits. We have studied the role of MAC in the decision to leave a food lawn in recombinant inbred advanced intercross lines (RIAILs) of Caenorhabditis elegans. We found a strong link between MAC and the food lawn leaving rates (Spearman r = 0.4, P = 0.005). We identified 28 genes of unknown functions whose expression levels correlated with both MAC and leaving rates. When examined by RNAi experiments, 8 of 10 tested among the 28 affected leaving rates, whereas only 2 of 9 did among genes that were only associated with leaving rates but not MAC (8/10 vs 2/9, P < 0.05). The results establish a link between MAC and the foraging behavior and identify 8 genes that may play a role in linking MAC with the quantitative nature of the trait. The method of correlations with both MAC and traits may find broad applications in high efficiency identification of target genes for other complex traits in model organisms and humans.